895 FXUS65 KRIW 151603 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1003 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy southwest winds are expected today, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Wind prone locations could see gusts up to 50 mph. Otherwise, temperatures today will be mild across the area. - Snow chances (70-90%) increase this afternoon across west and northwest Wyoming. Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions should continue through around 20Z for all terminals. An approaching area of low pressure will begin to spread showers into the western mountains this afternoon, with showers possible in vicinity of KJAC starting around 20Z. Precipitation should begin as rain, then transition to snow tonight as colder air moves in behind a cold front. Other showers spread into KPNA and KBPI later tonight. Almost all showers should hold off until after 12Z Thursday in the terminals East of the Divide. Mountain obscurations will be common later today and tonight to the west of the Continental Divide. Wind will increase at all terminals this morning as the low approaches the area. The strongest wind will occur in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS where gusts to over 35 knots will be possible after 18Z. Wind should decrease somewhat at most terminals after sunset but remain strong in vicinity of KCPR through most of the night. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hattings  026 FXUS63 KDDC 151608 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1108 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283 with a Fire Weather Watch in effect. - A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line). - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The pattern is headlined by a deep trough situated over the Rockies and tilted westward with height. The corresponding surface low has just reach overhead of SW Kansas. The dryline has bisected Kansas and marginal storms formed along it earlier in the afternoon. With the exception of Friday, the CWA is forecasted to see more very dry weather and serious-to-critcal fire weather conditions all week. Wednesday has highs forecast to be around 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday before quickly warming back up on Thursday back into the 80s. Similar to Tuesday, marginally severe storms may clip the far southeastern portion of the CWA namely Barber county. Most, if not all, will occur completely east of the area. With the lower highs, the relative humidities will not drop as far with only far SW Kansas reaching 10-15%. However, even with winds blending the 75th-90th via ensembles, gusts remain shy of fire weather headline criteria. Thursday will be even drier with relative humidities as low as 7%. with nearly all of SW Kansas seeing <15%. The biggest question is if/where winds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warning criteria. The current forecast only has areas near the CO/KS border nearing criteria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from noon to 9 PM CDT for the far SW Kansas. Winds are forecast from the south/southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will result in serious conditions due to the very dry conditions. Friday will again host serious fire weather conditions in addition to a severe weather risk across the eastern zones. Ahead of the advancing low pressure trough, coupled jets, a warm and moist airmass, and strong forcing will allow for a potentially widespread and significant severe weather threat. For the CWA's perspective, a critical aspect is where the dryline sets up. The current forecast is that the dryline will reside between Dodge City and Pratt. Ensembles have agreement situating it near the Highway 183 corridor. In the coming days, it will be integral to see if this moves, and if the storms will have enough time in the CWA to mature and reach severe thresholds before moving eastward out of the area. With the system, a strong cold front is forecast to drop temperatures significantly and pushing lows in the western counties towards or below freezing. Highs Saturday are only forecast to warm up to the 60s. Even with the cooler temperatures on Saturday, relative humidities are still forecast to be very dry down to 8-20%. The next few days are similar with the main focus solely on fire weather. The 8-20% relative humidity minimums are expected to linger deep into next week with winds from 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. With little to no moisture expected, the dry and fire weather conditions are forecast to stay for the foreseeable future and pose a tangible threat. Take proper fire weather precautions all week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West-northwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon at speeds generally less than 15 knots. By early evening, winds will calm down to below 6 knots, remaining light through early Thursday morning before ramping back up out of the south to southwest in the 15 to 20 knot range. The dry air mass will lead to continued widespread VFR fligh category through Thursday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Umscheid  920 FXUS61 KPBZ 151608 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1208 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight and Marginal severe risk areas were pulled slightly north as compared to the previous forecast. Also, the Marginal Risk for Thursday has been expanded to encompass most of the forecast area. Potential storm placement and timing for today was refined slightly, focusing on areas north of I-70 after 21Z or so. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of I-70. Damaging wind is the main threat, although large hail and a tornado or two are possible. 2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms, with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday. 3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A remnant MCV is progressing eastward across southwest PA during the overnight period. Earlier small hail-producing cells to the north of the MCV have moved east and dissipated, leaving a temporary lull in precipitation. Towards sunrise, what should be the weakening remnants of the Michigan QLCS will approach areas north of I-80. CAMs agree on this fading trend as the low- level environment should generally be hostile to convection at that time due to relatively meager MLCAPE and increasing MLCIN. Impact should be limited to brief heavy rain and perhaps modestly gusty wind. The environment will improve markedly during the daylight hours as southwest flow brings improved moisture flow into the region. The axis of highest moisture, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening, tracking E or ENE. Accordingly, along with some measure of surface heating, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HREF means, with potential to reach 2000 J/kg in the event of stronger heating. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6km values. Storm initiation likely occurs to our west, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity potentially spreading in from the west after 21Z or so. Storm mode could be mixed, with short line segments/bows, and potentially supercellular structures, especially if discrete storms can form earlier over our region along remnant boundaries. The main threat remains damaging wind gusts over most of the region. Better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two lies generally north of Pittsburgh, where low- level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. The new SPC day 1 outlook is in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70. Also remember: the threat of flash flooding cannot be ignored, as isolated issues could occur in locations that are impacted by multiple storms. While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary or surface trough across the region. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Less- favorable low-level hodographs and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential, leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown. A crossing shortwave accompanying the surface low, dipping into the Tennessee Valley, may finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night while bringing overnight showers and storms to our region. Friday and Friday night may feature a dry break as a smaller- scale 500mb ridge crosses. Then, one last round of strong to potentially severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening, followed by decreasing precipitation and more seasonable temperatures for Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3... A anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday, before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s assuming decent sunshine/mixing. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges, while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances. This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today. Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower given a bit better cloud/rain potential and longer climate histories. There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days. Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but a bit more areawide cloud cover and shower activity may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary. Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR and mainly dry weather through most of the afternoon with gusts into the high teens low twenties on average with mixing up to around 5kft. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the vast majority of the afternoon remains dry with convection capped off by warm air aloft. There is uncertainty in the late afternoon / evening timeframe regarding convection, as much depends on upstream conditions. Based off latest guidance and observed upper air soundings, a lean towards staying capped seems to be the right move through the afternoon. Thereafter, showers/storms are possible mostly north of KPIT into the evening if earlier upstream convection can act as a trigger. VFR is likely outside of any onsite convection. Latest ensemble guidance gives probabilities of any cig/vis restrictions in the single digits over the TAF period. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...88  642 FXUS66 KLOX 151613 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 913 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/854 AM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/912 AM. ***UPDATE*** Overall today will look and feel a lot like Tuesday, except most areas will be 1-3 degrees warmer by afternoon. There is a light offshore trend this morning that will be just enough to delay the sea breeze long enough to warm things up a little. Increasing northerly winds are expected in the mountains later tonight into Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind advisories there. Not much change in the forecast the rest of the week. As mentioned below there will be a lot if high clouds moving in later tonight through tomorrow morning then clearing out later in the day. Minimal changes in temperatures. Winds will shift to northeast Friday resulting in a moderate Santa Ana wind event. There is some uncertainty how much of an easterly component this event will have, which impacts where the strongest winds will be. There is high confidence in at least advisory level winds, and the usual spots in the San Gabriel and Santa Susana Mountains will likely reach 50-60 mph. ***From Previous Discussion*** The upper low associated with the forecast inside slider is not fcst to be much further to the NE than before and only its trof will move down the CA/NV state line. The RRFS came with much less wind which seem reasonable but the NAM still has gusty winds through the i-5 corridor. Low clouds should be pretty minimal again and mostly confined to western SBA county and perhaps the Long Beach area again. There is a chc of an eddy spinning up and if this happens there will be more low clouds than fcst. Thursday actually looks like it will start off mostly cloudy as a grip of mid and high clouds stream over the area. These clouds should slowly move off during the afternoon for SLO, SBA and VTA counties but LA county might have clouds all day. The northerly offshore flow is forecast to bring a few degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts and VLys and 3 to 5 degrees fore the csts/vlys of SLO and SBA counties. This is a lower confidence fcst, however, due to the amount of high clouds and 6 mb of onshore flow to the east in the afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was only limited or no warming instead. The northerly flow will bring in cool air from the SAn Joaquin Vly and this will cool the far interior by 2 to 4 degrees. High pressure rapidly building into the Great Basin in the wake of the inside slider will quickly switch the onshore flow to the east to offshore. The latest runs suggest about 6 mb. There will be about 4 mb of offshore flow from the north as well. This combined with decent winds at 850 mb should produce an advisory level Santa Ana wind event with 45 to 55 mph gusts through the Santa Ana Wind Corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to the western Santa Monicas). Sunny skies and offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the LA/VTA csts/vlys. Cool air from the NE will lower temps across the Antelope Vly by 2 to 4 degrees. The lack of northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range will cool the SBA south coast by 2 to 3 degrees. Most cst/vly max temps will end up in the 70s and lower 80s (The SBA south coast may only reach the upper 60s) .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/221 AM. The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees. No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of rain. && .AVIATION...15/1505Z. At 1500Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees Celsius. For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop at KLAX, KSMO and KLGB. Also, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KSMX after 08Z. KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. If CIG/VSBY restrictions do develop, timing of return could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...15/805 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in this same area Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  368 FXUS62 KKEY 151620 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1220 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Weather conditions have been fairly unimpressive this morning along the Florida Keys as a broken, shallow cloud deck based around 4,700 feet AGL (give or take a few feet) is traversing the sky overhead. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning showed a layer of saturation between 300 and 400 ft. thick, but no real indication of any other clouds throughout the column. In fact, the calculated PWAT was 0.73" which is just a tenth of an inch below the 10th percentile value. Automated observations currently report dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. THis dry air coupled with current temperatures near 80F are making for a comfortable April afternoon. Looping the satellite imagery over the past few hours shows a very gradual eroding trend across this cloud cover. We may be able to clear out some more clouds and get a little more sunshine to our part of the Sunshine State. Outside of the stark, dry air in place, the general pattern is unremarkable and the forecast reflects as such. No changes or updates are needed with this morning discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today we will see much of the same in terms of sensible weather. Deep layer subsidence on top of already limited moisture will result in little more than sprinkles at best through the day. Overnight we may get enough nocturnal instability to produce very shallow and isolated showers, but even these will do little to accumulate. Meanwhile, the surface high across the Atlantic and Gulf will be at times bifurcated by a thermal trough across the Peninsula due to daytime heating. This will lead to winds lulling through the morning and afternoon, then peaking in the late evening and overnight hours. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, a broad and weak easterly wave will approach and stall in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Though this feature will not reach the Keys proper, some moisture from this wave will leach and slide westward at times. This may allow for some showers to pass through at times Friday through Sunday. On top of this, the low level steering flow will remain north to northeast and any showers or thunderstorms that develop across the mainland during the afternoons could also slide across the Upper Keys at times. Early next week a backdoor front looks to slide through the Florida Keys with a slight uptick in rain chances but also a period of freshening breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain moderate northeast to east breezes (except moderate to occasionally fresh Florida Straits) through tonight. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. A new high pressure will slide eastward Sunday night into Monday, allowing for another round of freshening breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with BKN skies near FL047. Satellite imagery suggests an area of clearer skies may move through around 21Z, but even if more clouds build, there doesn't seem to be enough moisture near the surface to reflect critical categorical changes. Northeasterly surface winds near 10 knots will continue to gust occasionally to near 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 72 83 74 / 0 10 0 10 Marathon 81 72 82 74 / 10 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  439 FXUS63 KOAX 151627 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm chances continue in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Large hail will be the primary concern, though damaging wind gusts and brief tornado remain possible. - Warm, dry and windy conditions will brining elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday, particularly in east-central Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday. Cooler air arrives Friday night into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning lows will dip below freezing for some locations, with highs only peaking in the 50s on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today and Tomorrow... An upper-level wave ejecting northward into the central Plains is pushing an attendant surface low, currently positioned in southeast Nebraska, northeastward into central Iowa through the day. This feature will draw a warm sector northward in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon with a weak convergent boundary draped generally along to just north of the I-80 corridor. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 70s. Instability will increase through the day, with a narrow ribbon of SBCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg wrapping into the mid-MO Valley. A few elevated supercells have already track across northeast Nebraska late this morning, producing severe hail. The main questions will be if the warm sector pushes eastward outside of the forecast area before surface base convection occurs. The latest CAM guidance varies with some members initiating storms near the Missouri River longitude, while others don't develop storms until the feature is further into western Iowa during the later afternoon hours. If surface based storms are able to initiate in the forecast area, an initial supercell storm mode is possible with large hail the primary hazard given mid-level lapse rates approaching 8-8.5 deg/km. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with any surface based storm able to establish itself given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and backing surface winds, especially near the aforementioned convergent boundary. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will also be on the table. Additional chances for elevated supercells, with hail the primary hazard, will continue north of the low through the afternoon. A brief period of mid-level ridging will slide across the area on Thursday, bringing a short break from the severe weather potential along with the return of fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 80s, approximately 15-20 degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 15-35% range, with the lowest values expected towards east-central Nebraska. Gusty south- southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph tomorrow afternoon will help to elevate fire weather concerns, though confidence in winds reaching Red Flag Warning criteria is low. Most EPS/EPS-AIFS members keep winds capped around 30 mph. Additionally, RAP model soundings top out winds at the top of the mixed layer at 20-25 kts. Therefore, we are continuing the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday and Beyond... Severe weather potential returns on Friday as an upper-level trough pushes into the central and northern Plains. An associated surface low is expected to push across Nebraska through the day, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the region. High temperatures will depend on where the cold front is before peak daytime heating, with values peaking in the 70s to low 80s ahead of the front and the 60s behind the front. Gusty northwesterly winds of 30-35 mph will move in behind the front. Convective initiation is expected along the cold front with strong forcing for ascent and ample instability ahead of the boundary. Yet again, the main question will be how quickly the front crashes through the area. SPC currently has far southeast Nebraska clipped in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) draped further west. An initial supercell storm mode capable of all severe weather hazards looks probable for any storms that develop in the warm sector. We will have to see how things trend in regards to cold front placement into the afternoon as the system approaches. Any lingering precipitation will work its way out into Saturday morning, with a chance (10-20%) for a brief rain/snow mix on the back side of the departing precipitation shield. The post-frontal airmass will certainly be felt on Saturday, with morning lows temperatures dipping in the 30s, followed by afternoon highs topping out in the 50s. Lows again Sunday morning will drop near freezing for most locations, with the upper 20s expected across northeast Nebraska. Ensure any sensitive vegetation is protected and hoses are disconnected. Temperatures will gradually rebound later Sunday into early next week as mid-level ridging pivots into the central Plains. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 60s, rising to the 70s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1119 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A band of MVFR ceilings continues at KOMA and KLNK late this morning and are expected to scatter out and return to VFR conditions by 15/19-20Z. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected to expand across eastern Nebraska into the afternoon, with the highest confidence in impacts at KOFK and KOMA. There is a chance (15%) for a strong thunderstorm in eastern Nebraska this afternoon, bringing gusty winds and brief, isolated IFR conditions. However, confidence is too low in these storms impacting the TAF sites to include at this time. Model guidance continues to show storm development north and east of KOMA. Amendments will be made if needed. Otherwise, skies will gradually break up and clear from west to east through the evening and overnight period. Winds will generally remain calm, unless influenced by passing storms, residing out of the north-northwest and eventually shifting to southerly late tonight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood  115 FXUS64 KLIX 151630 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Patch dense fog is possible during the early morning hours tomorrow through midmorning. Visibilities should be greater than 1 SM, so a dense fog advisory has not been issued. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure continues to build over the region for the next few days through Saturday. Little rain is expected with this pattern, looking at the models. A stray shower or two is possible in afternoons, but won't likely have any appreciable rainfall. Onshore southerly flow will help to advect warmer and more humid air into the region as well during this time. As a result, temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s for the end of the workweek with some locations approaching 90 degrees. Since this is the first big warm spell we have had, make sure to stay hydrated if you will be spending time outdoors in the next few days. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Saturday night into Sunday morning, a frontal system will progress through the area, enhancing rain chances. Looking at the latest model trends, this system is expected to be weakening as it approaches and pushes through the area. Depending on how this trend changes or continues, rainfall could be a little less than we are expecting at the current time. Regardless, scattered showers and storms will be expected as the front moves through the area. Currently, given high PWs (1.4-1.6 inches) with limited lifting, strong storms will be possible with gusty winds (40-60mph), but severe weather is not expected. This could change as we get closer to the weekend, and we will continue to monitor this system. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler and drier on the backside of the system Sunday through the beginning of the workweek. No rainfall is expected Sunday after the front through at least Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low 70s for the beginning of next week. One potential concern especially Monday will be the chance for elevated fire weather concerns. Relative humidities will be in the low to upper 20s, so depending on the winds, we will need to be on the lookout for critical fire conditions as we get closer to the end of the weekend. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period for most area airports. For some airports (BTR, MCB, HDC), MVFR conditions will be forecast around daybreak due to fog conditions and these conditions will improve to VFR by midmorning. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW  430 FXUS65 KPIH 151641 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1041 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will develop this afternoon, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Friday morning with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An active weather period is now underway across Eastern Idaho as a robust Pacific system moves inland. Early morning satellite imagery captures an increase in cloud cover, with precipitation expected to overspread the central mountains within the next few hours before expanding across the remainder of the region throughout the day. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow will tighten the pressure gradient, causing winds to reach Advisory levels across the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. Elsewhere, breezy conditions will prevail with gusts generally holding in the 20 to 25 mph range. Precipitation today will largely manifest as rain below 6,500 feet, while the higher terrain begins to see light snow accumulations. The primary forecast concern arrives tonight into early Thursday morning as a potent cold front blasts through Eastern Idaho. This transition will trigger a drastic drop in snow levels, bringing a changeover from rain to snow even for the lowest valley floors. Perhaps the most notable development in recent model data is a strong signal for a convergence band of precipitation to develop over the Snake Plain Thursday evening. This feature has resulted in an upward adjustment of forecast snowfall totals for the Snake Plain and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, Winter Weather Advisories continue for the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands, where travel impacts are most likely. As the system exits to the east on Friday, the focus shifts to a significant hard freeze. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the growing regions of Eastern Idaho to account for the frigid air mass settling over the area Friday morning. This will be particularly impactful for any early-season blossoms or crops that have emerged during recent warm spells. The outlook for the weekend is much more favorable, as high pressure builds back over the Intermountain West. A drastic warm-up is forecast to begin Saturday, with temperatures climbing well above seasonal normals by Sunday and continuing into early next week. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend before low-end precipitation chances return late Monday or Tuesday. While another weather system is poised to impact the area early next week, model guidance remains split on the timing and intensity, leaving significant uncertainty in the long-range forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Multiple round of rain and/or snow is expected through tomorrow. We could see a few thunderstorms during this period, but not enough to include any type of -TSRA, -TSSN, or VCTS for any TAFs at the moment. Expect during periods of precipitation to drop into MVFR/IFR conditions. There will be gusty winds associated with the storm moving through the area. Gusts of 15-30kt could impact TAF sites, with the strongest at PIH and IDA. For SUN, there is a very, VERY small window tomorrow morning for the winds to switch to south once they go northerly tonight, but this pattern typically sees a more dominant West to southwest wind coming over and through the mountains. We went this route vs trying to include any window of southerly winds later Thursday morning and early afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...Keyes  117 FXUS61 KPBZ 151648 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms this afternoon to be confined north of Pittsburgh. The severe threat for Saturday has spread a bit farther eastward into our area but timing of the responsible front remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of Pittsburgh with much lesser chance farther south. Damaging wind is the main threat although large hail and a tornado are possible. Training thunderstorms may pose a localized flooding threat. 2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday. 3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of early morning convection, scattered cloud coverage remains with increasing southwest surface flow. Said convection has left an outflow boundary slowly sagging south past the Pittsburgh metro as of mid-morning. As southwest flow strengthens into this afternoon, expect that that boundary likely gets pushed back to the north while the ambient environment recovers markedly during the daylight hours. Dew points are not much higher to the south, so don't expect strong moisture advection today with dew points likely not moving much from their upper 50s/low 60s this morning. The axis of highest deep layer moisture content, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening. Along with some measure of surface heating into the low 80s, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HREF means. High-end potential, contingent on more clearing, exists to reach north of 2000 J/kg north of Pittsburgh, and trends may be pointing in this direction with HREF cloud coverage in the 50-70% range and actual observations trending much less. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6 km values. The highest confidence storm initiation likely occurs to our west after 3pm along and ahead of a cluster pushing through the lower Great Lakes region, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity spreading east. There could also be initiation along the aforementioned outflow boundary and other remnant boundaries from convection yesterday. As convective temperature of 75F is met this afternoon, that raises a conditional low confidence/higher severity earlier initiation along the remnant boundaries that could pose an all hazards risk with brief discrete mode before quickly growing upscale; better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two accompanies this north of Pittsburgh where low-level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. What may inhibit this is a persistent warm layer on latest PIT ACARS soundings from 700-800 mb that would need stronger forcing and repeated updraft attempts to erode. The later storm mode favors quickly congealing segments/bows as noted by several recent HRRR/RRFS runs bringing a damaging wind threat. The unchanged SPC day 1 outlook remains in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) down to about I-70. With deep layer mean flow nearly due westerly and initiation along boundaries oriented roughly west-east, training of storms is possible that could lead to flash flooding. This, again, is most likely north of Pittsburgh in the high PWAT axis. HREF max 1 hour QPF reaches north of 1" for a few consecutive hours later tonight suggesting the threat for training storms dumping inch per hour rates. While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary across the region. Coverage may be more widespread with some better mid-level forcing just downstream of a shortwave riding through the Great Lakes, but the environment it has to work with looks less potent. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Poor low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown. A southern stream shortwave dipping into the Tennessee Valley will finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. We should get a break from the daily convective cycle as brief shortwave ridging traverses overhead. It'll be short lived though before one last round of strong to severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. While details remain fuzzy, this feature should provide the strongest lift we've seen in the past week, so favorable timing would point toward a heightened severe threat. Timing of the front is still uncertain and dependent on tilt and progression of the mid-level wave with AI models suggesting late afternoon and some ensemble clusters as late as after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3... An anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which, assuming good mixing and lesser cloud coverage, would top out MaxTs in the low 80s. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances. This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today. Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower (~50%). There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days. Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but this may be a bit overdone with higher probability for more areawide cloud cover and showers and storms which may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front, but timing of the front will dictate how high temperatures get. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary. Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will be notable to all with this being the first warm up of the year. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR and mainly dry weather through most of the afternoon with gusts into the high teens to low twenties on average with mixing up to around 5kft. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the vast majority of the afternoon remains dry with convection capped off by warm air aloft. There is uncertainty in the late afternoon / evening timeframe regarding convection, as much depends on upstream conditions. Based off latest guidance and observed upper air soundings, a lean towards staying capped seems to be the right move through the afternoon. Thereafter, showers/storms are possible mostly north of KPIT into the evening as upstream convection moves into the region. VFR is likely outside of any onsite convection. Latest ensemble guidance gives probabilities of any cig/vis restrictions in the single digits over the TAF period. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions. A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged period of dry, VFR weather. && .CLIMATE... See below for record max highs and max lows this week: Today, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967) Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967) New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023) Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972) DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002) Thursday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012) New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017) Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912) DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976) Friday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960) New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982) Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002) Saturday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896) Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002) Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019) Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896) DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB/CL AVIATION...88  075 FXUS66 KPQR 151652 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 952 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation discussion and hazards. .UPDATE...Observations show the freezing level remains around 2500 ft. Mixed rain/snow showers are expected to continue through today down to 1500 ft elevation, but these showers are unlikely to produce accumulating snow. && .SYNOPSIS...The back edge of a cold frontal boundary which has spread ample precipitatiion and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest quickly progresses through the region this morning followed by a showery airmass and a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through tonight. Concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week although forecast confidence Sunday onward is low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night... Now through Thursday Night...Early this morning satellite and radar observations show our latest weather disturbance in the form of a cold-frontal boundary and the wide band of stratiform precipitation dropping NW to SE across western Oregon. Snow-levels are expected to quickly bottom out around 1500-2000ft in the cold airmass behind the frontal boundary by late morning with snowfall continuing to be the primary impact with this disturbance focused over the Cascades. We're still watching for a potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling artificially lowering snow levels closer to ~1000ft around sunrise this morning, particularly in coast range and southwest Washington southward through portions of Clackamas County. However, as far as travel is concerned, it'll be challenging to get accumulation on roadways at this elevation should a period of wet snow or a rain/snow mix occur. The chances for a light slush-up gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000-2500ft+. The heavier precipitation early to mid morning helping to drive these lower snow levels will also help to boost snowfall rates at pass level, likely reaching 1-1.5+ in/hr until the frost passes. If you plan to traverse across the mountain passes today, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. Once we get into the midday and afternoon hours we'll have transition to a more convective and showery post frontal environment thanks to the core of a upper level low moving overhead. Most models still show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg this afternoon leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM today when heating between shower bands is maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny pea size hail. Also be on the lookout for infrequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain associated with any activity. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. At this point the axis of the upper-level low pulls to our east with increasing heights on northerly flow aloft by sunrise Thursday morning helping to decrease shower activity. The lingering cooler temperatures aloft and partial clearing by sunrise should allow overnight lows to drop below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley, and potentially in the Cascade foothills mainly around and south of OR-22. Give the moderate to high confidence in these low temperatures panning out, have issued frost advisories for much of the region including a Freeze Watch for the Upper Hood River Valley and a couple of the aforementioned Oregon Cascade foothill zones. A few showers likely lingering through Thursday, increasing in the afternoon due to daytime heating, however, the bulk of the activity will be pinned to terrain features in the Cascades and coast range. Similar frost/freeze conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning and additional highlights may be needed for this period. Even though temperatures warm slightly aloft Thursday night compared to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, weak pressure gradients combined with a building ridge of high pressure aloft and better clearing may prove to be a better set-up for frost development. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Looking towards the weekend confidence is high among both deterministic and ensemble guidance in a ridge of high pressure continuing to build aloft allowing temperatures to gradually warm and reduce frost concerns. However the pattern remains rather progressive as models show the ridge quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. WPC Cluster Guidance does favor this low dropping almost straight southward across the eastern Pacific favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast. How far this low holds off the coast will heavily modulate conditions locally. Should it stay more to our west, warmer conditions and broad southerly flow would be favored, That said, any moisture riding south to north within this flow pattern could spell the return of convection. Thus forecast confidence Sunday onward into the middle of next week is low. -99/42 && .AVIATION...Post frontal showers are expected to persist through the day with increasing chances for convection in the afternoon after 20Z Wed. Highest probabilities lie along the Cascade foothills and to the north with around a 25-35% chance inland within the Willamette Valley. Thunder is challenging here as often it may be one storm that pops up, while other times it can be a wide swath. In this case, because the flow is northwesterly (not as favorable) behind the previous system, would trend towards a more isolated thunderstorm scenario. Overnight, showers will slowly dissipate and clear. Dropping temperatures mean that there is a slight chance for frost formation over exposed surfaces. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Combination of MVFR and VFR conditions with showers. Around a 30% chance of thunderstorms between 20Z Wed through 06Z Thu. Thunderstorms will trend towards an isolated scenario. Frost potential overnight if skies remain clear. -27 && .MARINE... A cold frontal boundary is quickly progressing across the coastal waters early this morning with winds switching northwesterly in its wake. Expect gusts between 20-30 knots the remainder of the day as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the region. This feature will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters into the evening hours. Seas are expected to persist at around around 9 to 10 ft, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft tonight as a fresh northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Thursday morning for both the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar. High pressure then builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. It appears there's a 40-60% chance for north winds to gust above 21 knots into Small Craft Criteria on Saturday. Looking ahead there is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>107- 109-114>118-123. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ121. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ORZ124-125. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ204-205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  775 FXUS63 KEAX 151654 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Active weather pattern continues with multiple additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, today/Wednesday and Friday. - Today/Wednesday: SPC Day 1 Slight Risk - Friday: SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk * Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, then cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What looked to be a fairly potent setup for strong to severe storms in the area yesterday evening and into the overnight tended to struggle mightily. By the evening, moisture rapidly surged northward toward and into portions of Nebraska and Iowa and the dryline rapidly retreated westward. Further SW, convective initiation ended up quite a bit further south (well into Oklahoma) than prior expectations. With the otherwise overall lack of synoptic level support/lift, this resulted in initial clusters of strong to severe storms over Nebraska/Iowa that just clipped northern Missouri and little to no precipitation into southern portions of the CWA with trajectories keeping activity into Springfield's area. This through about 3am. As of this writing, elevated non-severe convection continues to drift eastward across northern Missouri, with no expectation for anything more. Additionally, elevated convection is now seen blossoming over south-central to SE Kansas, along the nose of strong ~850mb moisture advection and the general LLJ. Of note, HRRR runs have not tended to handle this new KS convection well with all but the most recent run or two holding off on anything budding until just NE of the KC Metro around/after 10z. This leads to limited confidence in convective trends to round out the overnight and into the morning/commute hours. Conceptually, given what is transpiring and the environment depicted on SPC Mesoanalysis, tend to expect this scattered elevated convection to lift into the forecast area from SW and potentially increase in general coverage as it does so. Fortunately, soundings (ACARS and model) depict a reestablished cap which will help drastically limit top end potential. If anything, these thunderstorms may further prime some locations for possible local flooding or river issues later today/tonight. This general activity should drift NE through the morning and yield a mostly cloudy and moist/humid day. Normally morning convection and cloud cover would give rise to recovery concerns, but persistent moderate to strong moist low level flow should have no issue re-priming and mixing the area. Especially with moderate to steep mid-level lapse rates remaining in place. So, how do we fell about this afternoon and evening given what how forecasts have gone the last couple of days? That is a fair question. A notable difference today is that more substantial/supportive synoptic lift approaches as well as a more progressive frontal boundary as the western trough continues to kick out into and across the Plains with its attendant surface low. So, convective initiation is probably least of the uncertainties, overall. Instead, questions tend to be more around when does convection first fire off this afternoon, is any of it discrete/ahead of the cold front, how quickly it may grow upscale/cluster/linear, etc. Those timing and, more importantly, storm mode answers will determine the most prevalent threats. As you would imagine, discrete convection would carry an all hazards threat, especially large hail and damaging winds. Right movers would potentially yield very supportive low level inflow that could yield the best opportunity for a tornado or two. Clustering or more linear modes, including along frontal passage, would transition threats more toward damaging winds and occasional hail. For reference, broad set of guidance suggests >2000 J/kg MLCAPE, >40-45 kts deep shear. If the cold front was less progressive, mean wind/deep shear orientation would be more concerning for training storms/flooding issues, fortunately that does not set up to be the case here. Activity as early as around 1pm and up to around the evening commute in the KC Metro and 9-10pm for eastern parts of the forecast area. Brief break in activity Thursday as the upper trough moves east and a bit drier air mass moves in, but temperatures remain seasonally warm in the 80s with southerly flow quickly returning. This helps set the table too for Friday which will be yet another chance, quite possibly our best during this stretch, for severe thunderstorm activity. By Friday, another western CONUS trough, currently moving down the coast of British Columbia/approaching Washington/PNW, will be pushing across the Intermountain West and induce rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis along Wyoming and Colorado Front Ranges. Conceptually this checks most the boxes as it is a pretty deep/sizable trough that begins to pivot/take on a neutral to negative tilt across the region. Robust/deep southerly flow ahead of this too will push surface dew points back into the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates may push SB/MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J/kg. Wind profiles again look favorable for an all hazards situation with discrete convection. Synoptic scale lift support, frontal passage, and potential jet position start to check of additional boxes as well. Suffice it to say while you cannot necessarily hang your hat on the details just yet, Friday is a day to pay attention to. Bolstered by the previous Day 4 30% and the New Day 3 Enhanced by the SPC for much/most of the area. In the wake of this Friday system/threat, a period of quieter weather and cooler/more seasonable temperatures looks to settle in as NW mid-upper level flow and eventual height rises/ridging dominates. This should be through the weekend and at least into early next week before any notable precipitation chances attempt to return. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Main aviation concern this afternoon is convection, with storms expected to develop near the KC terminals around/after 20z. Think best timing for storms at MCI/MKC/IXD will be in the 20-22z time frame, but it still remains possible (around 50 percent chance) that storms develop mostly east of the TAF sites with no impacts at the terminals. On the other hand, if a storm develops and affects a terminal, impacts could be significant, with IFR/LIFR VSBYs and strong/erratic wind gusts in torrential rain and frequent lightning. Storms should move east of the terminals by 23z, with VFR thereafter. Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt are expected this afternoon, gradually veering to west and northwest this evening, before diminishing and becoming light/variable after 06z. A steady south breeze should develop after 15z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...CMS  979 FXUS64 KJAN 151655 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1155 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rest of today... Morning synoptic and surface analysis indicate large scale troughing west of the MS River Valley while mid level and surface high pressure ridge resides over the southeast States into the Atlantic seaboard, offshore and into the Gulf. This is ushering in moist, southerly flow off the Gulf into the coastal states. Dewpoints will continue to peak into the 60s but some mixing will occur, just not as much as the past few days. With increased warm advection and moist ascent, cloud coverage will persist. Highs will be seasonably warm, some 6F to 12F above (82F to 88F). Heat and humidity will be a touch higher. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through This Morning: As we saw yesterday morning, moisture return into the region, in conjunction with radiational cooling overnight is creating a fog along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts, spreading north into portions of southeast Mississippi. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory where confidence in areas of fog is greatest, but some patchy fog could develop farther north and west than the Pine Belt by sunrise as well. Today through Tuesday: Fog development is expected again late tonight into Thursday morning, spreading from the Gulf Coast into at least central Mississippi with advection/radiation effects. A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US will blunt the chance for an approaching cold front to make its way too far south into our area on Thursday. Timing looks a little faster with the shortwave, and may miss best daytime heating. The 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms were trimmed back into the US Highway 82 corridor. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures on Friday will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by Friday night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chance (60%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of dense fog and low stratus are producing widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Expect a lifting and mixing of the layer to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by around 15Z-16Z today. Another round of IFR conditions around KHBG and KPIB is expected before 12Z Thursday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 87 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 86 64 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 85 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 10 Greenwood 86 66 85 66 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF  967 FXUS63 KGLD 151658 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1058 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds and marginally critical fire weather possible over portions of the area on Thursday. - A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 240 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight: A few showers are possible in far northern portions of the area today as shortwave energy emerging from the Colorado Front Range early this morning progresses eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00-06Z) runs of the HRRR have, thus far (as of 08Z), verified well with radar and observational data/trends over and upstream of the Goodland CWA this morning. The HRRR suggests that showers assoc/w the upper wave traversing the region today will be (1) isolated to scattered in nature, (2) largely confined north of Hwy 36 and (3) largely occur prior to ~18Z. Expect relatively cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 70's and weakening WNW to W winds this afternoon, with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's. A modest upper level ridge will build over the Central Plains late tonight and early Thu as shortwave energy exits the region / progresses east toward the MS River Valley. Thursday: With ridging aloft, expect a warming trend, and modest (~15-25 mph) S to SW winds on the eastern periphery of a broad lee trough over eastern CO and far western KS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow- moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. A period of breezy winds in wake of a low pressure system is forecast to lead to wind gusts around 25 knots through mid to late afternoon. Winds are currently from the northwest but are forecast to back to the southwest this evening and remaining that way through the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg