119 FXUS62 KMLB 151701 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the surf is highly discouraged. - Warming trend under deep high pressure continues, with near record highs in the low 90s forecast across the interior Friday into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns to the forecast early next week as a weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep high pressure over Florida will keep us dry and warm. Onshore (easterly) flow continues as the ridge axis of surface high pressure extending from the Atlantic towards Florida stays just north of the area. A more relaxed pressure gradient will produce lighter winds today, increasing to 5-10 mph inland, and to around 10 mph with occasional gusts along the coast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the U70s-M80s, possibly reaching the U80s well inland. A few onshore moving sprinkles embedded in the marine strato cu can't be ruled out. The light overnight winds, mostly clear skies, and ridge aloft result in a little better chance for early morning fog than previous days, but generally most of the area remains too dry with dew point depressions 3 degrees or greater. The gap closes enough along and north of I-4 for a low (less than 20%) chance of patchy fog early this morning, and again early Thursday morning. Lingering long period swell will continue to produce dangerous rip currents at the beaches, and a high rip current risk continues for the Central Florida Atlantic coastline. Visitors and residents are advised to not enter this hazardous surf. Thursday-Sunday...The ridge aloft extending from the Gulf over Florida is flattened by a passing shortwave Friday, and remains suppressed through the weekend by a trough swinging across the eastern US. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic settles south over Central Florida by Friday, then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend ahead of an approaching front associated with the trough. Dry conditions and gradual warming will continue, with near record afternoon highs in the U80-L90s forecast Friday across the interior through the weekend. Easterly to southeasterly flow around the ridge plus the afternoon sea breeze will keep highs in the coastal counties to the L-M80s. Could see some onshore moving showers from time to time, especially towards the weekend as moisture increases a bit in the more southeasterly flow. The additional moisture will also increase the chances of morning fog across a wider part of East Central Florida. Monday-Wednesday...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers, breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons, and a slight cool down. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers, such as they are, at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Breezy to windy conditions are likely to develop in the afternoons as the pressure gradient tightens between the front to the south and high pressure behind the front sliding across the Southeast towards the eastern seaboard. Temperatures drop back closer to normal with afternoon highs in the M70s-L80s and overnight lows in the U50s-U60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic north of the area today gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high then begins to retreat eastward over the weekend as front approaches, forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Easterly winds 5-15 kts today gradually veer more southeasterly and weaken the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light background flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift between SE-ESE in the afternoon/early overnight and SSW-WSW late overnight/early morning with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Seas 3-5 ft early this morning settle to 2-4 ft Thursday through the weekend. A few light showers may develop from time to time, but otherwise dry conditions. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night as the front arrives. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure continues over the Florida peninsula through the TAF period. Earlier BKN035-040 continue to lift through the afternoon. VFR conditions prevailing, though will be watching the possibility of patchy fog at terminals along and north of I-4 (MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE/DAB). At this time, confidence in timing or location of any fog is too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, onshore flow continues. Breezy E winds along the coast early this afternoon diminish into this evening. Wind gusts up to 20 kts possible along the Treasure Coast over the next few hours. Then, lighter winds overnight, becoming more SE. E winds return around 8-12 kts Thursday morning and into the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry conditions prevail and the warming trend continues through the weekend. Easterly flow gradually weakens and becomes more southeasterly as the ridge axis of high pressure north of the area today settles south into Central Florida by Friday. Winds generally increase to 5-10 mph inland and to around 10 mph along the coast, while backing easterly behind the sea breeze in the afternoons and evenings, then become light and possibly variable overnight. No min RH concerns along the coast. Inland min RHs 30-45%, lowest north of the I-4 corridor, but winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph and Red Flag conditions are not expected. High temperatures in the U70s-M80s today increase to the M80s-L90s going towards the weekend, near high temperature records inland. There is a low chance for patchy fog along and north of the I-4 corridor early this morning and again early Thursday morning, then chances increase to more parts of East Central Florida Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Leahy  657 FXUS62 KGSP 151703 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fire danger continues to increase through the weekend. 18z aviation discussion was added. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement continues through this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement continues through this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged with stout upper ridging centered over the Gulf into Florida with well above average heights extending north into the southeast states. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs within an active southern stream flow will lift over the ridge across the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will continue to leave the Southern Appalachians high and dry with surface high pressure locked in as well. The main focus over the next several days will be a threat for fire danger each afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Forecast soundings reveal a deep well mixed boundary layer extending up to nearly 800mb. Relative humidity values are already crashing this afternoon with dewpoints mixing out a good bit below NBM forecast values. Have adjusted dewpoints down considerably both this afternoon and again the next several days heading into the weekend. This results in critical values of 25-30%. Occasional wind gusts will also be possible with modest flow within and at the top of the mixed layer. Momentum transport will help realize gusts around 15mph, perhaps a hair higher. The low humidity combined with winds and very dry fuels will result in increased fire danger. A special weather statement is in effect through this afternoon and another one will be needed tomorrow. A red flag warning cannot be completely ruled out for tomorrow either should wind gusts increase more than currently forecast. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. Stout upper ridging across the Southeast from an upper anticylconeover the northeast Gulf/FL peninsula should start to break down tomorrow as a lead short wave trof drifts across the Ozark Plateau/Mid-MS Valley regions. Not that it will have much of an effect on our region just yet, as temps will climb well above normal each day through Saturday after the initial wave passes. High temps for Thursday have probably the best chance to break records east of the mountains based on the continued drought conditions and the new forecast, which is very close to record values. By Friday and Saturday, the records are several degrees warmer, so perhaps not quite as good a chance. Either way, it will be a dry heat for mid-April. Guidance still has a cold front on track to move in from the west Saturday night as a robust mid/upper trof swings across the Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of the front, the upper flow across the Deep South is more west-southwesterly, which doesn't provide an ideal setup for moisture return. It stands to reason that areas along the TN border will stand the best chance for some precip because of loosely organized convection moving in from the west before weakening in the evening. East of the mtns, however, it would be best to not get your hopes up. The modest moisture transport, ongoing dry conditions, and weakening forcing suggest limiting precip probs to the chance range at best. Except for the TN border region, the QPF from the models is more of an insult at this point, and would provide no relief. The front is expected to move east of the area by midday Sunday, and should usher in temperatures much more reasonable for this time of year. It might almost feel like a backwards change of seasons, with lows and highs at or slightly under normal for the first part of next week. Unfortunately, the new air mass will be very dry, so expect another round of high fire danger. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Southwest winds continue this afternoon as high clouds stream overhead. A few gusts upwards of 20kts will be possible. Winds go light tonight with gusts returning again tomorrow afternoon along with additional high clouds. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033- 035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510. SC...None. && $$ PM/TW  905 FXUS63 KIND 151703 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms this evening into tonight, greatest threat after midnight - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a weak MCV moving across northern Indiana and a broader surface low currently across Iowa. This system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet. As the LLJ ramps up this evening into tonight, thunderstorms are expected with the potential for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Through Tonight. The latest water vapor imagery and regional radar mosaics highlight an MCV currently moving through northern Indiana. This feature is expected to remain north of the forecast area with a dissipating boundary closer to the I-70 corridor. Recent high-resolution model guidance keeps the convection this afternoon north of the forecast area associated with the MCV with additional development across Missouri and western Illinois towards 18-20Z as skies gradually clear and instability increases. Diabatic heating is already pushing temperatures into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. This environment should yield MLCAPE values of 1200 to 1800 J/kg by peak heating. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts will be sufficient for organized multicellular structures if convection can hold together as it moves further into Indiana after 00Z. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. High DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates will support efficient downward momentum transfer in collapsing cores. A secondary round of convection is likely as the LLJ cranks up to 40-50 kts after 06z. This will sustain elevated convection through the overnight hours, though the severe threat should gradually wane as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset. Thursday through Friday Night. The aforementioned MCV is forecast to exit to the east by late this evening, leaving behind a trailing surface trough. While scattered showers remain possible on Thursday, the overall trend will be toward drying as subsidence increases across the region. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the low to mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday. GEFS and EPS output shows high confidence in a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies, and ensembles are in good agreement on a strong cold front crossing Indiana during peak heating. Given the robust dynamics associated with this system, another round of severe weather is possible, although timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions still need to be resolved. On the backside of the front, a 1030mb surface high will slide south from Central Canada. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night and Monday night are currently projected to be in the low to mid 30s. Those with sensitive vegetation should prepare for potential frost or freeze headlines as the seasonably cold air settles in. The EPS members suggest a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to southwesterly flow and more tranquil conditions to start the mid- week period. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Southwesterly wind gusts to 30kts through the TAF period - Low chances for TSRA as early as 23Z, more likely after 06Z - MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys during convection Discussion: VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period with increasing chances for MVFR cigs during and after periods of convection that could begin as early as 23Z. Convection chances look low through much of the evening hours but as the LLJ ramps up during the late evening and overnight, convection chances will increase. Confidence is highest in the 06Z to 11Z timeframe with cigs dropping to around 015 during periods of convection. Southwesterly winds will frequently gust up to 30kts through 00Z, then more towards 20 to 25kts after 00Z through the remainder of the TAF period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  130 FXUS63 KABR 151705 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues. Temperatures today top out in the 70s (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and Thursday into the upper 70s to mid 80s (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for late Thursday morning into the late afternoon. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. Overall not a lot of moisture with this system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the 18Z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 844 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog has dissipated this morning, and the Dense Fog Advisory in place over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota will be allowed to expire on time this morning. Also monitoring some light rain over that same area, as some surface observing stations have briefly reported -RA this morning. Showers may linger for the next hour or two before giving way to clear skies and/or scattered high clouds the rest of this morning and afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Isolated elevated shower activity early this morning, with BUFKIT profiles and regional observations indicating ceilings up around 8-10kft or higher. NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate a fairly dry layer of air below, so that will really limit what reaches the surface. Added sprinkles through the overnight. CAMS are also highlighting the northeast for another round of fog formation, and we've already seen Wheaton down to 1/4 mile. For Today, the weak wave responsible for the ongoing activity has shifted into western Minnesota, with a second wave over central Nebraska, both heading northeast with the influence now east of the CWA. We end up in broadly diffluent flow aloft as a stronger wave comes into the Pacific northwest. Good mixing conditions for the day with a light southwest component to the winds. HREF probability of exceeding 20 mph only tops out at 20-40% for a few hours in the morning when we first mix out, then drops to zero. NBM deterministic highs are about 1 to 4F below the 50th percentile, and with ample sun and mixing winds, bumped temperatures up. Afternoon humidity across much of the area will be from 20 to 30%, and the HREF probability of falling below 20% is actually from 40 to 60% across our west river counties. But again, winds are going to fall well below criteria for Red Flag. Across the east, mainly the far northeast, NAM BUFKIT profiles also indicate some weak/shallow convective instability. Profiles suggest convection limited to between 5 and 10kft which may be enough to generate moisture. CAMS only have a few blips. Have added a 20% chance up across the northeast. Wednesday night, flow aloft continues to be diffluent, resulting in a lee low forming over eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas. This increased the gradient, though only about 10mb across the state. Increased flow is southerly, with 1/2km winds of 25 to 40kts. There will also be warm advection through the overnight hours, though no elevated instability is indicated in the NAM. As we continue into Thursday, flow aloft is southwesterly, with southwesterly low level flow, though the lee low weakens into more of an inverted trough stretching northeast to southwest across the state. Inverted V style profiles are depicted by the NAM, with a few j/kg CAPE above the 0C level, up around 12kft. No POPs with this profile, but along with the system derived winds being strong, this may add additional gustiness as a fire weather wrinkle. As for temperatures Thursday, again, NBM falls around the 10th percentile, with a 5 to 8 degree cool bias vs the NBM 50th percentile. This again is likely due to a significant thermal gradient across northwest South Dakota and south central North Dakota and the array of possible ensemble placements. Winds for most of the area during the day are also in a warm advection regime, meaning the NBM should provide the cap for highest wind gusts (outside of the aforementioned convection) so this will give us a good idea of whether we'll meet Red Flag. NBM gives us 50 to 70% probability to exceed 25 mph and a 30 to 50% probability for winds in excess of 30 mph. That means the potential for a fairly widespread Red Flag wind wise. For afternoon humidity, the deterministic NBM is around 20 to 25% with the far northwest and northeast up over 30%. Cold front moves through during the overnight hours, with a wind shift and increase. Strongest pressure rises are out in western South Dakota, but the gradient from southeast to northwest is about 16 to 20 mb. NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate status follows, with mixed winds in the 25 to 35kt range. Concern is that any ongoing fires will experience a sudden shift in trajectory. The gradient persists through Friday, at about 20mb across the state, keeping winds up. We still go from a standard deviation above climo for 850mb temperatures Thursday to a standard deviation below climo by Saturday, with a 30-40 degree temperature difference between highs Thursday in comparison to Friday/Saturday. Trends for moisture: NBM POPs have dropped, and shifted the total moisture west. Still only averaging a tenth of an inch or less. GEFS is likewise a tenth or two, with a few blip up around a half inch. NBM probability of a 1/4 inch are also down, up north of Mobridge its only about 30-40% with lower elsewhere. Profiles still suggest a transition to snow as well, but with ground/air temps wouldn't expect it to last. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with minimal cloud cover expected bar some possible scattered high clouds and some scattered cumulus over eastern South Dakota. Westerly winds will turn southerly overnight tonight due to influence from a low pressure center to the west. Winds increase Thursday morning into afternoon, reaching gusts up to 30 knots by the end of the TAF period. Beyond that point, a front will move through beginning Thursday evening and overnight, veering winds to the north and bringing some precipitation behind it Thursday night. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048- 051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BC DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...BC  705 FXUS63 KDTX 151708 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 108 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Persistent Flood Risk: A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms cross a stalled frontal boundary. Previous rainfall has saturated soils, making the region highly susceptible to additional runoff. -Severe Potential: A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another isolated threat focused toward the Michigan/Ohio border on Thursday. The primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts within any organized convection. -Dry Friday followed by a Cold Weekend: Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. The weekend concludes on a windy and much colder note Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s. && .AVIATION... Mild and moist conditions will maintain a supportive environment for periodic bouts of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Initial attention focused on an area of convection lifting northeast across northern IN. Potential exists for thunderstorms to expand across the region between 19z and 21z. MVFR to IFR conditions where heavier rainfall materialize. While a lower coverage of convection may yet emerge elsewhere into the evening, a more targeted period for showers and thunderstorms appears focused between 02z and 08z. Forecast will maintain a conservative outlook given a mixed signal on potential and possible coverage. Prevailing VFR conditions tonight outside of any periods of heavier convective activity. DTW/D21 Convection...Potential for thunderstorms to lift through between 19z and 22z. A secondary period may development within the 03z and 08z window, but confidence in occurrance remains much lower. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft through tonight. * Medium for thunderstorms this afternoon. Low tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 DISCUSSION... A stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped across southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Water vapor imagery reveals at least two distinct upper-level waves currently over the Plains that are progged to work through the Great Lakes region through Thursday night. The 00z RRFS and 00z 3KM NAM both provided a reasonable depiction of the convective line that rolled through Southeast Michigan earlier this morning. However, notable differences remain regarding the timing and extent of redevelopment today. Leaning toward the RRFS solution, expect a brief lull by mid-morning as the initial wave exits. This reprieve will be short-lived, as high-resolution guidance suggests rapid airmass recovery by early afternoon. With SBCAPE progged to rebound into the 1000 - 1500 J/kg range amidst 40- knot bulk shear, additional discrete cells or multicell clusters are favored to develop along residual outflow boundaries. The Day 1 SPC outlook maintains a Slight Risk for southern areas, with damaging wind being the primary hazard. The RRFS remains aggressive for Thursday as well, highlighting a secondary mid-level trough lifting into the Great Lakes. This feature will provide stronger synoptic forcing for widespread, efficient precipitation. Relief finally arrives on Friday as a transitory period of mid-level ridging and surface high pressure provides a much-needed reprieve from the active weather. Attention then turns to a potent longwave trough ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest and arriving over the weekend. A deepening surface low is progged to track through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, dragging a cold front through Southeast Michigan on Saturday (most likely during the early afternoon per the 00z Euro). Any delay in frontal timing could allow for stronger southwest winds ahead of the boundary, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph given the 40 - 50 knot jet at 850 mb. While widespread showers may help limit instability - keeping MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg - the strong wind fields will maintain a marginal severe threat. Post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) looks robust for the tail end of the weekend, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out around -10°C by Sunday morning. Breezy to windy conditions will make for a "raw" day, as highs struggle to exit the 40s under a persistent deck of stratocumulus. Steep low level lapse rates will also support isolated to possibly scattered rain or snow showers through Sunday afternoon. MARINE... Overnight showers and thunderstorms depart this morning while an unsettled pattern remains in place today and Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with similar strong to severe concerns as the past few days. Localized winds in excess of 35 knots, erratic waves, and large hail will all be possible. Familiar wind pattern today and Thursday as the warm front holds near Saginaw Bay, causing winds to back toward the east north of the front. Some relief to the wet pattern is expected Friday before another low ripples through Saturday, drawing a strong cold front across the region. This will elevate winds on a more widespread basis compared to the more localized wind potential in thunderstorm activity through the work week. HYDROLOGY... Rainfall totals up to 2 inches were observed earlier this morning across portions of the M-59 corridor and the Saginaw Valley. Given this antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee and Saginaw Rivers forecast to reach flood stage; the Shiawassee River also remains a point of concern for potential flooding. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue intermittently through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, which typically would not trigger widespread flooding. Any focused areas of convection could significantly over- perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to "train" over the same localized areas, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for flash flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  009 FXUS63 KSGF 151709 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. Number of rounds, timing of highest severe risk, exact hazards, and intensity still hinges on how quickly morning convection dissipates, but most severe scenario involves large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes this afternoon into this evening. - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery depict an upper-level trough moving across the western CONUS, with the base of the trough pushing into the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico. Along the eastern edge of the advancing trough, two centers of cyclonic rotation can be observed, one near Bismarck ND and the other near North Platte NE. Deep convection is ongoing in 4 locations across the Midwest and Southern Plains along two boundaries of interest: along a stationary/quasi-cold front across southern Iowa and Wisconsin and from southern Michigan into northern Ohio, and in the warm sector ahead of a dryline in south-central Texas and from central Oklahoma into the Ozarks. The convection in our backyard early this morning is a decaying MCV that brought strong to severe winds as it moved into the area early this morning. Despite the cold pool of the late evening MCV bleeding the environment and completely depleting the instability in northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri, additional pockets of elevated convection are forming on the western edges of the MLCAPE gradient/remnant cold pool as 50-60kt LLJ advects warm, moist air overtop the more dense air mass. These storms upstream of our area are not expected to be able to sustain themselves very long in such a stable environment, but this second round of scattered, disorganized elevated convection will advance into our area this morning. Even if the morning convection doesn't persist very long in time or reach very far east, it will still have some residual effect on the ability and speed at which the environment destabilizes this afternoon. One other potential impact this AM convection could have would be leaving residual outflow boundaries or cold pools behind for storms to potentially form along this afternoon. Model guidance across 00Z-06Z suites seem to point to three potential solutions for how today'afternoons setup evolves. From most to least likely/highest confidence to lowest confidence: Outcome 1: Afternoon warm sector convection across our area, followed by line of storms that form as discrete/semi-discrete supercells in Kansas/Oklahoma and quickly grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This afternoon convection would depend on morning convection stopping at some point so a capping inversion can develop aloft before being broken this afternoon. Despite widespread cloud cover, confidence is high in the cap being broken, and the remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools/surface convergence from morning convection would serve as a mechanism for storms to form off of in the afternoon without requiring the dryline to initiate. Storms would form as discrete initially, but quickly grow upscale into clusters. Coverage would be scattered enough to allow for the later round of storms to maintain their severe risk. Straight hodographs earlier in the afternoon would support splitting supercells that would suggest more of a hail threat initially, and also implicate that storm mode becomes messy quickly. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes would be possible with the afternoon storm development, while damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes would be the hazards for the line of storms later in the evening. There could be a risk for strong tornadoes with any supercells that remain mature into the evening, when shear profiles become more curved in the low- levels. Outcome 2: No afternoon warm sector convection, but the discrete/semi- discrete supercells in Kansas and Oklahoma form along the dryline as anticipated and grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours. This outcome would have a lower, but still not insignificant, severe risk compared to the first outcome. The timing of severe potential would be limited to the window where storms are moving into the area from Oklahoma/Kansas, with the hazards being damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes with the line. Outcome 3: Continuous, non-severe warm sector convection continues all through the morning and afternoon hours, before upstream convection develops and arrives this evening. When the upstream storms do arrive this evening, the atmosphere would be so washed out from continuous development that there would be a far lower to even no severe risk once it does arrive. The line of storms that arrives overnight could have stratiform development behind the leading edge that lingers into the early morning hours on Thursday. The Eastern Ozarks could see a continued, low severe risk for elevated storms on Thursday. with a few CAMs hinting at the line moving out of the area fast enough tonight that the air mass could recover and see redevelopment by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Far to our northwest, GOES-West water vapor imagery shows another digging trough developing aloft over the Pacific Northwest, which will serve as the primary driving force for another widespread round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains on Friday. Confidence is high in this trough moving across the central US by Friday night, providing ascent for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front finally displaces the persistent Bermuda High that has been blocking the pattern up. The best chances for severe weather on Friday will be further north and west of a Joplin to Jefferson City line within an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk, which is closer to the cold front and more likely to see initiation and maintenance within the more favorable diurnal window of instability. Our position between the dryline that persists over the Southern Plains and the cold front pushing in from the north means a big question mark surrounding whether we will be a part of the dryline supercell club as part of that severe risk. Supercells would put large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on the table as potential risks prior to the cold front arriving to the area. If our severe risk is tied only to the cold frontal passage, that would implicate damaging winds and embedded spin-up tornadoes as the severe hazards of concern. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 18z TAFS, surface based CAPES starting to increase to our west and should creep in here throughout the afternoon. Could see storm initiation ahead of a dryline towards the onset of the 18z TAFS to the west of the CWA, however some scattered activity will be possible over the area before that main area moves in. Have gone with prob30s until late afternoon and then a predominant TSRA with heavier rain between 23z and 02z as the main line moves through. Expecting MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR within the stronger convection. Things should clear east of the TAF sites by 03-04z. May get some stratus in here overnight towards morning, especially at the BBG site. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Camden  839 FXUS61 KPHI 151709 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 109 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. 2. Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms move through this evening, mainly north of I-78. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe storms is in place for that area. Main concern is damaging wind gusts. For today, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across portions of eastern PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk remains in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. However, it is worth noting that this threat is highly conditional depending on how convection evolves from upstream and with any remaining outflow boundaries. An MCS is currently moving through over the Great Lakes and should fizzle later this morning near the Appalachian region. Similar to yesterday, diurnal heating will likely contribute to some reinvigorating of convection in the afternoon to our west and push toward the area in the late afternoon/early evening. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves. MLCAPE Values in the northern third of our region should be around 1000-1500 J/kg though with only 20-30 kt of bulk shear. Thinking the timing may not line up perfectly with forcing coming in a bit later closer to sunset as instability is waning, which will be a limiting factor with today's severe threat. Forecast guidance notoriously struggles with these types of scenarios, so confidence on today's threat is low. Thinking the main area to watch over the early evening will be near and north of I-78. In terms of timing with the thunderstorms, it does look to come in a bit later, which as mentioned above will limit the severe threat some. Looking at a window from about 6 PM to Midnight across the northern Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern NJ. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues this week with very warm and above normal temperatures continuing through the upcoming weekend. Today and tomorrow will likely see records fall and will be the warmest days of the stretch with upper 80s/low 90s expected. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected for today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Tomorrow's highs could be a touch cooler with some cloud cover in place. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next two days. See Climate Section to see the daily records for today and tomorrow. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal through the weekend with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels early next week. Not only will it be very warm over the course of the week, but it will also remain mainly dry. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. Rain chances are in the forecast north/west of the I-95 corridor for this evening and Thursday Night, but rainfall amounts are minimal. Showers move through on Friday region-wide but QPF is only a few hundredths. More widespread and wetting rain (0.10" or greater) could come on Sunday. Flow will generally be out of the southwest, which is more favorable in terms of moisture. This will likely hinder the fire weather concerns as min RHs should be above 30%. Winds will generally be light as well, serving as another limiting factor. So, even though it will be warm and dry, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today (thru 00Z)...VFR. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible at KRDG/KABE, so have kept mention of VCSH. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-23 kt this afternoon. Moderate-high confidence. Tonight...VFR. Lingering showers or thunderstorms possible at KRDG/KABE through 03Z before diminishing. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-high confidence. Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. High confidence. Outlook.. Thursday night through Friday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out brief periods of restrictions with any showers moving through (15-30% chance). Friday night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather. Saturday night through Sunday...Primarily VFR. Some restrictions possible (30-50%) with periods of showers moving through. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Winds out of the southwest around 10-20 kt with 2 to 4 foot seas. Outlook... Thursday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines expected. Sunday...SCA conditions possible (30-50%) as winds out of the west/southwest near 25 kt and seas nearing 5 feet. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Wednesday is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Tuesday through Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Record highs on Tuesday April 14 were tied at Wilmington and Georgetown today, with a record high set in Atlantic City. No record warmest lows were set on Tuesday. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich  053 FXUS64 KMAF 151710 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level trough extending across the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft persists over the region into this afternoon. As the trough moves further to the east, so does the dryline. This will keep most storm development east of the forecast area. Low (10-15%) storm chances still exist late this afternoon into the early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Breezy winds and very dry conditions prompt near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast New Mexico, eastern Culberson County Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Other than that, high temperatures range from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations. Tonight, the aforementioned trough moves into the Upper Midwest creating quasi-zonal flow aloft. Subtle upper-level begins to take shape over the region by Thursday morning which is going to supply warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for most. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. This again provides elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across similar locations previously mentioned. Another upper-level storm system looks to impact the region by Friday heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details! Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. In addition to these features surface troughing brings breezy conditions across much of the area (higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains under the mid-level jet). Strong southwesterly downslope flow helps filter in drier air behind the dryline, increasing fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area resulting in low (10-30%) chances of rain and cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday due to increased cloud cover and easterly upslope flow well behind the front. In addition to the upslope flow, shortwave troughs embedded in southwest flow aloft brings additional chances (10-40%) of rain for areas mainly south of I-20. Long-range guidance depicts the return of weak ridging by early next week, signaling warmer temperatures after this weekend. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR continues at all sites. Gusts between 20-25kts may occasionally be seen during the day and decay after sunset tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 56 89 64 91 / 0 10 20 0 Carlsbad 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 88 66 92 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 86 55 86 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 46 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0 Odessa 56 87 64 89 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 50 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...93  180 FXUS61 KOKX 151711 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region. H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain. Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this afternoon and evening. VFR through much of the day today, with chance of showers/tstms and brief MVFR/IFR conditions with the prefrontal trough late today NW of the NYC metros, and spreading SE to all terminals into this evening. Timing uncertain and may need to be pushed forward into tonight. Light SW flow should become SW 10-15 kt inland and S along the coast by afternoon, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west and with the sea breeze at KJFK/KISP. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. LLWS possible late this evening after any showers/tstms pass, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020. Fog with IFR cond also possible late tonight at KGON/KBDR/KISP, and MVFR cond at the NYC metros. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Chances for showers/tstms tonight may occur a couple of hrs later than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: Any early morning MVFR/IFR cond should improve quickly to VFR by 13Z. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD/DBR AVIATION...BC MARINE...MD/DBR  880 FXUS63 KLBF 151712 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest Nebraska through early Wednesday afternoon. Accumulations of 0.25-0.50" are locally possible. - Dry weather returns for Thursday, with a combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions expected. Critical fire weather concerns are possible, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. - Threat for light precipitation Friday/Friday night-mainly over western areas. - Additional fire weather concerns Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across portions of western and central Nebraska. This is within a zone of strong FGEN aloft, with a weak H85 low centered over south central Nebraska. As this low slowly pushes east through late this morning, scattered shower development is expected to persist across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. The threat for a few thunderstorms also looks to persist, as steep lapse rates aloft will support at least meager instability. This should support at least locally heavier rainfall rates, though as a whole any accumulations remain to 0.10-0.25" for areas generally south of HWY 2. Where thunderstorms do occur, as much as 0.25-0.50" would be possible locally. No severe weather is expected with this activity, as the meager instability looks to overlap weak deep layer shear. As the low slowly begins to push off to the east by this afternoon, a surface trough will quickly move from west to east across the area. This will quickly usher in much drier air, as the surface trough reaches to near the HWY 83 corridor by late afternoon. Any lingering precipitation should quickly end from west to east by mid- afternoon, and dry conditions are then expected to continue into tomorrow. The much drier airmass will lead to elevated to near- critical fire concerns this afternoon, though winds look to be the main limiting factor at this time. Still, highs today reach into the lower 70s again, and push relative humidity into the teens for areas west of HWY 83 this afternoon. Lows tonight fall into the lower 30s, as the warm advection regime persists overnight. A much more concerning day is then on tap for tomorrow, as temperatures warm even further into the lower 80s across the entire area. This is as warm advection aloft pushes H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile climo, or to ~21-23C. Unfortunately, these warm highs will combine with the very dry airmass in place, and push relative humidity values to as low as 10 to 15 percent for all of western and north central Nebraska. As deep diurnal mixing is achieved, southerly gusts of 30 to 35 miles per hour can be expected as well. The combination of the warm, very dry, and gusty conditions look to lead to critical fire weather concerns, and see no reason to make any changes to the inherited Fire Weather Watch. By early Friday morning, a cold front will begin to push into northern Nebraska, and should largely clear the area by sunrise. This will lead to a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also lead to ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour northerly wind gusts can be expected with frontal passage as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong cold front is expected to clear the forecast area by 12z Friday. Much colder air will push in behind the front Friday with highs struggling to reach the mid 50s in far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Across the northeastern Panhandle, highs will be around 40 degrees. For most of the day Friday, dry and cool conditions are expected. For locations further west including the eastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills, weak mid level warm air advection will lead to an increased threat for light precipitation in these areas. During the day, thermal profiles in the west and northwest, will support snow, especially Friday morning and Friday evening into Friday night. Ground temps do remain warm in these areas, especially after the 80+ degree readings expected Thursday. With the warm ground temps, little to no snow accumulations are expected with this activity. Additionally, QPF's will be light with this system. The NBM precipitation ensembles only indicate a 10 to 20% chance of QPF exceeding 0.10" Friday/Friday night. Even if ground temps were much colder, snow accums would generally be an inch or less across northwestern portions of the of the forecast area. Forcing for precipitation will weaken Saturday morning as the upper level trough crosses central into eastern Nebraska. However steep lapse rates are indicated in the latest GFS soln Saturday afternoon over the western half of the forecast area. Add in some surface heating, and wouldn't be surprised if we saw some isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. The NBM initialized with some isolated pops Saturday afternoon, and this seems reasonable and will be retained with this forecast package. Cold high pressure will settle into the Dakotas and Nebraska Saturday night. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will allow lows to reach into the middle 20s by Sunday morning which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east of the forecast area Sunday morning shifting winds to the south Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft will build into the Intermountain west and warmer boundary layer air will push into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday will reach into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Afternoon RH will reach 10 to 20 percent along with southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 MPH, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Even warmer temperatures will build into the area Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching into the 80s. ATTM these forecast high temps are at the 25th%ile of the NBM and may end up going even higher with subsequent forecasts. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions appear likely Monday and Tuesday with min RH of 10 to 20 percent Monday and 15 to 25 percent Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist throughout much of the region through Thursday morning. Winds will generally remain under 12 knots with skies remaining mostly clear. Some increasing winds are expected by late Thursday morning across the Pine Ridge and into northern Nebraska with southwesterly gusts up to 25 knots. Even stronger gusts up to 30 knots are expected Thursday afternoon across the majority of the region. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NEZ204-206-208>210- 219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik  888 FXUS66 KHNX 151713 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1013 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level low continues to exit eastward and in its place, a weak ridge will take hold over the area. However, Thursday will have an inside slider cooling down the San Joaquin Valley and bringing winds to the Mojave Desert slopes and the desert floor. As such, a wind advisory will be in effect from 11am Thursday to 11am Friday. Ensemble guidance doesn't suggest any precipitation, but does suggest cooler temperatures. The northern part of the CWA will be at a 90 percent chance of exceeding 68 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 75 degrees. The southern part of the CWA will see 90 percent chance of exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 78 degrees. After Thursday, another ridge will take hold over the area. This is going to bring warm temperatures to the CWA through the weekend. On Sunday, the northern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance of meeting and exceeding 75 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 89 degrees. The southern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 80 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 90 degrees. This warm won't stick around forever. By Monday temperatures are going to fall to below normal once again as a closed low makes its way down. There is another chance for measurable precipitation and a small (5-10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. As of the current ensemble run, Northern San Joaquin valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" of rain and 10 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 0.4". The Southern portion of the valley also has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" but a 10 percent chance of 0.2". As Monday grows closer, confidence with the impacts of this next closed low is expected to increase. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...BB weather.gov/hanford  220 FXUS64 KLUB 151713 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow establishes across the region in response to expansive surface troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low level return flow reestablishes across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds will decrease just after sunset and remain light overnight. Winds are expected to pick back up Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20 foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10  706 FXUS65 KFGZ 151714 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1014 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for pleasant weather today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. The weekend looks dry with warmer daytime temperatures and well below normal morning lows. && .DISCUSSION...Dry air will spread across northern Arizona today behind the most recent trough. Pressure gradients will be much weaker supporting southwest to west winds of 5-15 mph. The air mass will be milder with temperatures ranging near seasonal averages. For Thursday through Friday...A fast moving shortwave trough will brush northern Arizona. The main impact will be a return to stronger winds. Recent model forecasts have shifted the shortwave a bit further north so winds likely won't be quite as strong as previously indicated, but still quite uncomfortable. On Thursday, ahead of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty Thursday night but gradually weaken and shift to a west to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough axis moves eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph across much of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph will persist. With the northward shift of the trough the the chances for even an isolated shower along the Arizona/Utah border are near zero. From Saturday into early next week...A drier northeast to east flow will develop Friday night through Saturday. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. However, along and south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, where winds tend to funnel in northeast flow, gusts to 25 mph are forecast. Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as another trough will approach Arizona during the day Sunday. As a result, look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday into early next week with warming temperatures both day and night. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/18Z through Thursday 16/18Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming VRB after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/18Z through Saturday 18/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Thursday, then becoming N/NW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Friday before shifting N/NE overnight Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Look for west to southwest winds at 5-15 mph today, increasing to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 10-20% each day. Friday through Sunday...Dry through the period. Northwest to west winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph on Friday becoming northeast to east at 5-15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph on Saturday. Sunday will see south winds at 10-25 mph develop as a Pacific low approaches Arizona. Minimum RH of 10-20% is forecast for Friday turning a bit drier on Saturday at 5-15%, then jumping back to 10- 20% on Sunday in response to the approaching low. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  828 FXUS62 KMFL 151715 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep-layer ridging remains in tact at least through Thursday as it continues to hold over the Southeast U.S. while also further amplifying. 500mb heights will be in the 97-99th percentile for these dates, showing just how strong this ridge is. The drier air mass also holds steady, maintaining a dry and tranquil weather pattern across the region. Easterly winds around the high pressure will be a little weaker today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but still will be relatively breezy with gusts to around 20-30 mph. Daytime high temperatures will continue to reach the low 80s for the east coast metro and upper 80s to near 90 for the Gulf coast region today as the easterly regime favors warmer temps for the Gulf region during the day and cooler at night. Highs then climb to near 90 for Gulf coast metro areas on Thursday with low to mid 80s highs for the east coast metro. We continue to monitor the Newman Wildfire in Collier County as well. Until its fully controlled, breezy easterly winds will allow for smoke to continue to disperse fairly quickly to the point where it's less controllable. The easterly winds will push smoke towards the Gulf shore and other areas in the vicinity. As a result of this, local air quality issues are likely and can impact sensitive groups as firefighters continue to work on mitigating the fire. Additionally, smoke can contribute to lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Caution is advised when driving on the roadways until the fire is fully controlled, and vulnerable populations should consider limiting time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds remain gusty from the ENE through 00-01Z, then light to moderate overnight. Wind speeds may remain around 10kt, likely with with no periods of wind gusts Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 82 71 85 / 0 10 0 10 West Kendall 65 84 67 87 / 0 10 0 10 Opa-Locka 68 83 70 86 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 69 82 71 85 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 71 83 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 69 80 71 83 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 70 85 71 88 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 67 81 69 83 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 69 80 71 83 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 64 85 66 88 / 0 10 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  977 FXUS65 KPUB 151716 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1116 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonal today, with spotty elevated fire danger - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds for Friday into Friday night, followed by widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough will lift out of Colorado this morning, with slowly building ridge across the state by late day. Main concern for today will be potential for some spotty elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in gap flow favored regions and across the upper Arkansas Valley. At this point, flow aloft doesn't appear strong enough to drive widespread gusts above 25 mph as 7h winds are under 20 kts, so will run with no highlights and just a mention of brief elevated conditions in the fire weather forecast. Max temps today will run at least in the vicinity of seasonal values, though most locations will end up a few degf on the warmer side of averages by late afternoon. On Thursday, upper ridge migrates eastward into the High Plains, with increasing swly mid/upper flow across CO as next upper trough digs into the nrn Great Basin. While mid-level flow isn't terribly impressive (25-35 kts at 7h), surface gradient looks favorable for gusty winds, while humidity drops off to below 10 percent in spots by afternoon as deep mixing develops. Should have enough wind to justify the current fire weather highlight, though have started to see some weaker gusts on the plains in some of the 00z guidance, so have kept it a watch for now. Max temps will climb back into the 70s/80s on the plains with deep mixing, with 60s valleys and 50s/60s mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough swings through the central Rockies Friday/Friday night, with tend toward a faster system continuing in most 00z deterministic models. As a result, cold frontal passage on the plains has sped up, with a few solutions bringing the front through the plains Fri morning, while majority of models/ensembles point toward a slightly later passage in the afternoon. Deep wly flow ahead of the front could produce some critical fire weather conditions on the plains early Fri, especially south of the Arkansas River, though confidence is frontal timing is low enough to preclude any highlights at this point. Over the mountains, snow showers start early Fri morning along the Continental Divide, spreading eastward across the remaining mountains and high terrain through the day. If the front is quick enough, could see showers into the Pikes Peak region/Pueblo County Friday afternoon, with a thunderstorm possible as lapse rates steepen. Rain changes to snow quickly even along I-25 late Fri/Fri evening, with some moderate snow accums (2-4 inches in Teller County) forecast, and won't be surprised to see at least some light accums along the Palmer Divide/nrn COS as well. Forcing for precip drops off quickly the farther south you go across the region, and many areas south of the Arkansas River will see little or no rain/snow. Upward motion diminishes quickly Fri night as trough moves rapidly away, and expect most if not all precip to end by midnight across the area. Winds die off and skies clear overnight, leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures Sat morning, with teens mountains and valleys, 20s on the plains. Cool and dry on Saturday, and will ignore slight chance NBM pops Sat afternoon, as air mass looks too dry to support convection. After another sub-freezing start Sun morning, warming trend begins from Sun afternoon into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and temperatures back to well above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Weswt-southwest winds are expected to pick up across the area this afternoon, gusting 20-25 knots or so. Winds will weaken overnight while keeping a southwest component at KCOS and KPUB, while KALS will turn more southerly. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  210 FXUS62 KTAE 151716 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, mainly for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Forecast is on track no changes are needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the northeast Gulf dominates the upper level pattern into the weekend before it begins to break down in advance of several upper level troughs early next week. Ahead of these systems, very warm temperatures will prevail. Our warmest days of the period will be Friday and Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front on Sunday/Monday. High temperatures will likely approach 90 in many locations, especially those across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. The main forecast concerns through the next 7 days will be the continuation of a very dry pattern and increasing fire concerns, especially this weekend and early next week. While the frontal system will bring slightly cooler temperatures and a brief chance for rain, it will not be enough to temper fire danger. Much of the rain chances will be confined to southeast Alabama but even in these locations, forecast rain chances and rainfall amounts are quite low (less than 20% and only a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible). Given that this next front is highly likely to be a dry cold front, and the potential for relative humidities in the teens with 10 to 15 mph winds, we could see the potential for critical (also known as Red Flag) fire weather conditions during that time period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will remain for across the region this afternoon and into this evening along with winds generally out of the south to southwest. Early morning tomorrow, patchy to areas of fog will bring prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP and expanding eastward to possibly encroaching to TLH and DHN terminals. Fog is expected to lift mid morning across all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface high pressure will firmly be in place over the next few days. Light to gentle winds out of the south/southeast are expected over the waters this week, with wave heights at around 1 to 2 feet. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. The next period of elevated marine concerns won't be until late Sunday and Monday as a cold front sweeps through area waters and brings northeasterly winds; potentially to cautionary/advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions will characterize the rest of the week as strong upper level ridging persists over the region. Transport winds will be light (5-10mph) and out of the south/southwest through the forecast period. Dispersions will be higher today, primarily for the western half of the region across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle. Higher dispersions on Thursday are limited to our northernmost counties with moderate dispersions elsewhere. Afternoon minimum RHs will likely dip into the high-20%/low-30% each day this week. Considering this alongside the antecedent drought conditions and hot high temperatures expected, fire weather concerns can be expected each day despite the weak transport winds. While uncertainty remains high at these longer lead times, some greater fire weather concerns could develop over the weekend or early next week with the passage of a dry cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 60 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  959 FXUS64 KMRX 151716 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a Fire Danger Statement, and will reevlaute the need for that tomorrow morning after coordination with forestry. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quater inch in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability (~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds will be generally 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at TYS through the afternoon, dropping off around sunset. LLWS will be mentioned in the TAFs as surface winds decouple from winds aloft, which will be around 25 kt. With daytime mixing, gusty winds will develop again late in this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 87 62 90 / 0 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 20 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 60 87 / 0 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 0 10 40 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS  428 FXUS63 KARX 151717 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and tapping into the unstable airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lower confidence dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of central Wisconsin as fog has been slowly spreading southward from northern Wisconsin throughout the night across already saturated ground. Ongoing elevated convection and an expansive anvil shield have resulted in visibilities bouncing around quite a bit at the automated sites, but there looks to be enough of a break in the storms to have at least areas of dense fog through the early morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ongoing Early Morning Storms: Tuesday's low level trough abandoned 1" PWATs (GOES derived) across the southeastern 3/4 of the forecast area, permitting the overnight storm threat to lie just south of the forecast area, due to enhanced forcing. Overnight storm initiation observed on DMX/OAX radar is evident of the lingering boundary as DMX VWP light north winds opposes TOP/ICT/EAX 925mb winds of 35+ kts. Fortunately, as the storms progress north towards the forecast area, a drier, colder airmass will limit overall strength. Unfortunately, areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night will likely see ongoing storm potential through the early morning hours potentially causing flooding in spots where strongest storms were realized and caused heaviest rainfall. Strong to Severe Storm Threat Today & Tonight: Strong to severe storm threat increases across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening as a potentially deepening low pushes northeast through the Central Plains towards the Mississippi River Valley. Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, meridional advection of the warmer, moister airmass through the late morning hours increases meager initial storm chances before the unstable airmass takes shape through the afternoon. A feedback loop between the deepening cyclone and the frontal boundary raises questions of duration and northern extent of storms. Therefore, overall confidence remains low due to differing solutions in strength of meso cyclogenesis lifting through northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin through the afternoon. Ongoing late morning observations of surface winds and progression of synoptic forcing will iron out further details however. The most locally widespread and potentially strong solution (HRRR/RAP) keeps an open, albeit tightening wave as it nears the forecast area, sufficiently strengthening to abate the drier air attempting to push from northwest to southeast. This solution perpetuates local storm chances across the southern half of the forecast area through the afternoon, evening, tonight, and early Thursday morning. Fortunately, associated temperature sounding profiles show mostly elevated storms, limiting tornado risk with very long, straight, hodographs raising wind threat concerns with secondary hazard of large hail. Although, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given stretching of vorticity along the near surface frontal boundary. Furthermore, this solution suggests an initially congealed storm mode through the day becoming linear as the dry punch pushes through tonight as the meso low provides additional forcing for storms through Thursday morning. This is an outlier solution at the current juncture and given the proclivity for the HRRR to jog north/south in its solutions depending on initialization time, bears awareness rather than raw belief. Higher confidence situation in storms grazing our southern periphery this afternoon and eventually exiting east through the evening hours as the drier air quickly pushes threats south and east of the forecast area. Regardless, all will depend on previous storms which in turn depend on ongoing storms early this morning seen strewn across central Iowa. Storm Chances Return Friday Afternoon & Night: A break in storm chances on Thursday is expected as shortwave ridging allows today's drier air to the northwest to advect southeast through the local forecast area. Subsequent longwave troughing, seen in GOES WV imagery over the Pacific Northwest is expected to phase through the Central Plains Thursday, enhancing low level moisture transport into the Northern Plains Friday. Therefore, ample forcing and instability progresses east causing linear storm mode across the forecast area Friday. Unfortunately, machine learning severe weather forecast models have drastically increased local probabilities nearing 50% for the southern half of the forecast area. Current confidence is limited due to influence of diurnal heating to potential timing of frontal passage locally. Will require close monitoring in coming forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered showers and storms will be mainly found south of Interstate 94 corridor. Confidence on the northern extent of these storms were not high enough to include them in the KRST TAF at this time. As far as KLSE, confidence was a bit higher so they were included in the TAF. For late tonight, fog will likely develop. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty on how dense it will be, so just added some MVFR fog for now. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fortunately, heaviest rainfall Tuesday remained south of Monday's heaviest rainfall, easing overall flooding concerns. Therefore, no changes in river flood headlines compared to previous forecasts. Tuesday's rainfall unfortunately slightly affected upstream of more locally flashier rivers in northeast Iowa (Turkey River) southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin (Kickapoo River). While initial responses on these rivers haven't been overly concerning overnight, subsequent storm chances this morning through tonight raise concern should they frequent these same areas. Similarly, ongoing river flooding in central and west-central Wisconsin is at risk should storms be realized farther north. Short reprieve in local precipitation chances Thursday ceases for Friday as the anomalously moist airmass returns for strong to severe storms pushing southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Skow DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...JAR  101 FXUS62 KRAH 151717 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 115 PM Wednesday... * Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend. Strong ridging over the SE will remain locked in place into the weekend before weakening. Therefore, exceptionally very dry and very warm conditions will continue for the next several days. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday, with little change Friday and Saturday. SW winds will occasionally be breezy, moreso on Thursday with gusts to 25 mph possible. Expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to be issued daily until things change significantly. Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near- record high temperatures through Saturday. A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds into central North Carolina. Atmospheric thickness values (1000–850 mb) are forecast to be near the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s—about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the warmest temperatures ever recorded in April. Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday. This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. In addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light. Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 115 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period with light swly sfc flow diminishing overnight. Sswly sfc flow will pick back up on Thursday gusting upwards of 15 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...rah  184 FXUS64 KLZK 151720 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon -Rain chances become more widespread Wed evening into early Thurs morning. -Well above normal temps Friday -Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north. Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR. The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR. Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri. Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun. Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week. By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions are likely through the evening hours across most terminals. Some areas of rain are possible especially across northern and western terminals as showers pass through. These showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to slowly push east overnight brining the chance of rain to all terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible where showers prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 82 64 87 / 90 70 20 20 Camden AR 64 86 64 88 / 50 40 10 0 Harrison AR 61 80 63 85 / 90 60 10 30 Hot Springs AR 62 82 63 86 / 80 50 20 10 Little Rock AR 66 83 66 88 / 80 70 20 10 Monticello AR 66 86 66 89 / 30 30 10 0 Mount Ida AR 62 82 64 85 / 80 40 20 10 Mountain Home AR 62 81 62 86 / 90 60 10 30 Newport AR 67 83 65 89 / 80 70 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 66 85 65 88 / 50 50 20 0 Russellville AR 63 82 64 86 / 90 50 10 10 Searcy AR 64 83 62 88 / 80 80 10 10 Stuttgart AR 67 84 66 88 / 60 80 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...78 AVIATION...73  937 FXUS63 KICT 151720 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Another round of severe storms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, brief cool down for the weekend. - A very high grassland fire danger for areas west of I-135 on Thursday and Friday afternoon. A very high grassland fire danger may return for areas west of I-135 Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An elongated mid/upper trough stretched from South Dakota SSW over the Rockies into the Southwest early this morning. This trough is progged to translate eastward emerging over the Plains states today. Ahead of this feature, a dryline across the Flint Hills will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The warm sector is progged to be weakly capped with storm development possible by early-mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors are progged to be in a similar orientation to the boundary leading to a messy storm mode but we could see a couple of supercells with the initial development as we remain within an enhanced southwest mid/upper flow regime. Any discrete storms would be capable of producing large/very large hail and a tornado before we start to see more clustering toward evening. The activity is expected to be east/southeast of the area by 8-9 pm. As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide. A vigorous mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday but it looks like the cap will preclude early morning convection. A cold front will bisect Kansas as we move into the early afternoon hours becoming a focus for showers and storms by mid- afternoon as the cap weakens. Similar to Wed, we see deep layer shear vectors in a similar orientation to the cold front leading to another messy storm mode situation. A line of storms capable of damaging winds and large hail is favored as the front races south and east through the evening hours. Mid-lvl waa/isentropic upglide may lead to some post-frontal thunderstorms capable of large hail and heavy rain as we move into the early evening hours. The activity is expected to move south and east of the area by around midnight. Sat-Tue...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area as we move into Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are expected to top out around 60 for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Tue with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. Above normal temperatures are expected to return on Monday with highs on Tuesday reaching the 80s in central KS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central KS sites through the end of the period, while MVFR cigs and vsbys may impact south central and southeast KS sites early Thursday morning. Stout westerly winds observed across central and south central KS early this afternoon are expected to continue into the early evening before dissipating and becoming southerly. To the southeast, introduced a TEMPO at CNU for TSRA during the 20-23Z timeframe per the latest short-term guidance. While skies are expected to remain mostly clear for central KS for a majority of the period, low-level moisture flowing in from the south is expected to result in lower cigs and fog across far southern and southeast KS. Still not entirely sure if this reaches ICT, so decided to hold to MVFR for this issuance. Confidence is higher in MVFR to near-IFR conditions at CNU where greater moisture is expected to reside through Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy southerly winds will return to central Kansas on Thursday and especially on Friday while very dry air will also lingers. Minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be in the teens on Thursday while rising into the 25-30 percent range on Friday, although gusty southwest winds will increase on Friday. A very high grassland fire danger will develop for areas west of I-135 on both Thursday and Friday during the afternoon hours. A very high grassland fire danger may return early next week for areas west of I-135. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...MWM  124 FXUS64 KLUB 151720 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible off the caprock late Thursday and again late on Friday. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The weather pattern has returned to more typical early spring weather with a restoration of increased fire weather conditions which will continue through much of the remainder of the week. A positively tilted trough axis will finally move overhead tonight with weak short wave ridging on Thursday. Today and tomorrow afternoon will see extreme boundary layer mixing up to approximately 600mb. However, winds through this layer will not be entirely strong with values on the order of up to 25kt or so. For today, winds will become breezy behind the dryline due to an increase in the surface pressure gradient. The extreme mixing will also bring very dry air aloft down to the surface with forecast surface dew points close to or in the single digits. On Thursday, a deepening upper trough in the Intermountain West will result in stronger surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Surface winds across West Texas will respond by increasing out of the southwest. The downsloping winds will also contribute to very warm temperatures on the order of 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages for today and Thursday afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As the aforementioned upper level trough progresses across the Rockies, low level moisture will return to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. A strong low level jet and warm advection will also develop in response to this upper trough. Models do show weak isentropic ascent late Thursday into early Friday but the return moisture is expected to be very shallow. Areas off the caprock and especially the southern Rolling Plains will see the best chances of any light rain showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Elevated parcels would have a significant amount of instability to take advantage of if enough moisture is present. On Friday, the dryline will quickly mix eastward with a surface cyclone moving from the Central Plains into the Midwest with the upper trough taking a similar path. Unlike Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, we will see an increase in winds aloft as this upper trough progresses eastward. Boundary layer mixing heights will not change much for Friday but stronger winds in the boundary layer will bring stronger surface winds. Temperatures for Friday are currently forecast to be a few degrees shy of record values. All of this will be followed by a very strong cold front Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Surface winds may approach advisory level speeds during this time period as a 1025mb surface ridge spills into the Plains. Much cooler temperatures will follow this front into at least early next week with temperatures below seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds will decrease just after sunset and remain light overnight. Winds are expected to pick back up Thursday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...10  460 FXUS64 KMEG 151721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return late tonight into Thursday, with low confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. - Well above-normal high temperatures continue, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through Thursday. High temperatures will climb to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another warm, spring-like day persists across the Mid-South with temperatures in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. Afternoon high temperatures are still on track to reach the mid 80s across much of the area, with a similar overall feel as our weather conditions from yesterday. As we move into tonight, there is currently a weak upper-level low pushing off the Rockies this afternoon that will move up towards the Upper Midwest into Thursday. This parent system will bring showers and severe thunderstorms west and north of our area this afternoon and evening, with this dwindling line approaching our area overnight into early Thursday morning. There will be very little instability for any of these storms to work with as they reach our area, so severe weather is not anticipated initially. A few CAMs continue to hint at a secondary resurgence in activity by Thursday afternoon as a weak shortwave pushes across the northern half of the area. If storms are able to get going Thursday afternoon, there is a Marginal Risk for some storms to become strong to severe under a favorable environment with decent lapse rates and instability. The main concern with any of these storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. However, given the uncertainty and how the morning convection will progress, the chance does remain low. By Friday, temperatures will surge across the area with another weak shortwave passing across the north half of the CWA. PoPs remain around the 20-30% range, although this could play spoiler to some well above normal temperatures for Friday. Across the area, high temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s. The current record high temperature for Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro is 91 degrees and 89 degrees for Tupelo on April 17th. With the current high temperature forecast, Tupelo has the best chance of reaching or exceeding their record with a small chance that the remaining sites could as well. This will be something worth watching into Friday. Into Saturday, an upper- level trough will exit the Plains, bringing a cold front through the region by the afternoon to evening. This will bring fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) through the area during the day and into the evening on Saturday. Given the presence of upper-level forcing and LREF joint probabilities for favorable CAPE and shear generally being in the 30-40% range, strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the frontal boundary moves through the area on Saturday. While the area is not currently included in any risk outlooks from SPC with it being Day 4, would not be surprised if a Marginal Risk is introduced with the Day 3 outlook tomorrow morning. Something to watch over the next few days, albeit the threat does remain low. From a QPF standpoint, the majority of guidance has much of the Mid-South receiving anywhere from 0.25" to 0.5" of rainfall on Saturday. While this is nowhere close to erasing our current deficit across the area, it should help a little for those who have been waiting for measurable rainfall. Behind Saturday's frontal boundary, a much cooler and drier air mass will move into the region with high pressure building through the middle of next week. Sunday's high temperatures will finally fall below normal for the time of year, with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s. This temporary below normal relief will be short lived as temperatures will rebound by Monday. However, temperatures will only rebound to around near- normal, with highs settling around the mid 70s to start next work week. With the dominant high pressure, this will keep PoPs out of the forecast through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Gusty south to southwest winds will persist this afternoon under prevailing rain-free, VFR conditions. South winds will remain 8- 10 kts at MEM overnight as the low-level jet strengthens to ~35 kts. This was not included in the TAF given the marginality. Mid-level cloud cover will increase overnight as decaying showers and/or thunderstorms move into eastern AR (mainly after midnight). As this activity weakens, we're not anticipating much in the way of lightning. Additional diurnal convection is expected Thursday afternoon and evening, warranting the inclusion of a PROB30 for TSRA at MEM. There is also a medium potential (40- 50%) for MVFR ceilings at JBR/MKL Thursday morning. This cannot be ruled out at MEM/TUP, but if ceilings form, they'll more than likely be < 3000 ft AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MinRH values will remain in the 35-40%+ range today, with additional moisture returning to the region by Thursday. This moisture return will allow minRH values to rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be around 0.5" at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...MJ  686 FXUS62 KFFC 151721 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north Georgia and portions of central Georgia this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing very dry and warm conditions. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase this weekend, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high pressure regime will maintain its grip over the region today and Thursday. Mid and upper level ridging remains in place over the Southeast, extending from central Gulf towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure underneath is also centered over the western Atlantic. Persistent southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high continues to bring warm air from the Gulf into central and north Georgia. Low temperatures this morning are expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal underneath mostly clear skies, rising to between 10-16 degrees above daily averages and even approaching daily records at the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), rising into the mid 80s to low 90s. Minimum RH values this afternoon will drop to the 25-30% range. With very dry fuels and drought conditions, another Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of north Georgia and east-central Georgia. Winds will remain below Red Flag thresholds today. On Thursday, the ridge axis and the surface high will shift further to the east. Both low and high temperatures will remain similar, with record high temperatures possible once again in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee Valley. With the ridge stretching more to the east, it is possible that isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could spread into far north Georgia. Slight chance PoPs have been introduced in the northern row of counties late Thursday afternoon into the beginning of the long term period. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, stalling before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border as it encounters the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm and Dry through Saturday: Ensemble guidance generally agrees on the passage of a shortwave trough across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Little (if any) rainfall is expected with this feature, as guidance depicts the attendant moisture scouring out as it encounters the ridging in place (plus a lack of appreciable moisture return ahead of the shortwave across the County Warning Area). Very similar to the previous several forecast packages, the National Blend of Models (NBM) brushes far north Georgia with 15% to 20% rain chances on Thursday night. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday. Better Rain Chances and a Cold Front on Sunday: Ensemble guidance is also in general agreement on a stout longwave trough swinging across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. The low pressure system associated with this feature will drive moisture advection across the Southeast, with precipitable water (PWAT) peaking around the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year. The cold front associated with this system is expected to support showers and possibly thunderstorms across parts of north and central Georgia late Saturday through Sunday morning. That said, whatever rainfall occurs with this weekend system will very likely not be nearly enough to put a dent in the drought conditions. The cold front will bring a noticeable cool-down Sunday and Monday, although model spread is decently high regarding temperatures on Sunday given the frontal passage. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s and lower 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conds prevail across all TAF sites through the period. A Cu field with bases around 050-080 continues to develop over much of central & N GA, dissipating this evening. West winds continue backing to southwest, with speeds of around 5-10 kts; gusts to 15-20 kts cannot be ruled out. After sunset, around 00-02Z, winds subside to around 3-6 kts; variable or calm winds are possible. Winds increase again tomorrow around 15-17Z, remaining southwest and returning to around 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements CRS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 87 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 83 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 10 Cartersville 87 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 88 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 87 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...CRS  185 FXUS63 KFGF 151723 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds late Thursday night into early Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Large scale pattern features a split in zonal flow over the Northern Plains, with a mid level shortwave east of our region. Surface high pressure is in place with stratus slowly starting to break up. Additional fog/stratus may redevelop later tonight after the current low clouds clear, with better chances for mainly aviation impacts in north central MN. Deeper westerly flow aloft will support deepening low pressure on the Lee side of the Northern Rockies and increasing southerly flow/WAA Wednesday through Thursday morning. A deepening mid/upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest builds eastward late this week into the weekend. The initial cold front arrives late in the day Thursday and may result in a large spread in potential high temperatures north to south (low 50s to near 80F depending on timing within our CWA). It will also bring chances for rain and snow back to our region from Friday through Saturday. As that trough passes, there is a strong consensus in mid/upper level ridging arriving by early next week, with rising heights reflective of increasing temperatures (60s/70s by Tuesday). This pattern also lowers the probability of measurable precipitation, though the orientation of the ridge/flow aloft may still allow for fast moving shortwave trough passages near our CWA. ...Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday... As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin). There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR through the period with a cold front working south into the area this evening/overnight. Winds veering slowly from the south to the the north then northeast by the end of the period. Winds south of the front remain south/SW and north/NE to the north of it. GFK and TVF will both be near the stalled front Thursday morning so wind directions are still relatively uncertain but tried to give a best guess at timing. Wind gusts on both sides of the front will be over 25kts Thursday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT  959 FXUS63 KIWX 151726 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 126 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, though the potential for severe weather remains uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity evolves. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through Saturday, with potential for severe weather dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity. - A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds and high river and lake levels. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quick update to the forecast to increase pops into early afternoon. Small cluster of storms across far southern MI this morning has moved northeast with some occasional light returns further south into N Indiana. Looking back to the SW, radar and sfc obs indicate a MCV in west central IL with an area of showers and storms trying to expand while moving NE. Several of the models suggest this continues NE reaching the area in a few hours and lingering into the early afternoon. HRRR is the more robust with maybe some stronger storm potential. Plenty of shear is in place with instability on the lower side (500-1000 J/KG of MUCAPE) per SPC Mesoanalysis and 12Z KILX sounding. While some increase in temps is expected through the morning, extensive cloud cover will limit overall heating. Will be monitoring trends over the next couple of hours for maybe a "marginal" threat of stg-svr storms. Given the trends, felt it was warranted to keep likely pops for many areas into early afternoon vs the taper off to chc that was in place. Flood watch remains in effect across the northern half. May need to expand southward depending on evolution of the morning convection as well as trends for afternoon/evening storms as PWATs remain in the 1.25 to 1.4" range and depth of warm layer shy of 12,000 ft all point towards a continued heavy rain threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While a primary trough will lift out of the Rockies into the central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today. Forecast soundings depict fairly saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain, though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south. The severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit CAPE values. That said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent destabilization occurs. For now the severe threat today looks conditional but worth watching. A sharper trough moves through the area on Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a marginal severe threat. Attention will then turn to the likely arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has triggered an early highlight by SPC for severe weather potential on Saturday. A sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the associated cold front is likely on Sunday, with a moderation in temperatures through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for both sites mainly through 21Z and again after 02Z tonight. Convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with VFR conditions then expected into Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in thunderstorm outflows. Breezy southwest winds continue on Thursday with gusts around 25 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015- 017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Cobb  861 FXUS64 KBRO 151726 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions will continue this week. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Temperatures above average through this week with a cool down late this weekend with the passage of a cold front. - Unsettled conditions return this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure over the Gulf into the southeastern US will maintain warm, breezy, and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday with low to mid 90s expected for much of the region by Thursday. Coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will continue this week with Friday being the breeziest day. While we look to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, this will be something we monitor closely. As we head into the weekend, a cold front moving through Texas will bring rain and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Monday. The aforementioned front will move through Deep South Texas on Sunday which will also be the day of our highest rain chances, which have gone up slightly to 50-60%. Cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the front with highs only in the 70s for Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday and will likely increase by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered to broken cloud cover will continue through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Brief MVFR cannot be ruled out with low clouds increasing in coverage temporarily. Southeasterly winds gusting around 30 kts will continue this evening. Overnight, winds lessen and MVFR cigs build, persisting through Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with moderate winds and waves. Could see some caution conditions at times each day through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Headed in the late week, winds will increase ahead of a frontal boundary which could lead to Small Craft Advisories on Friday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters. In wake of a frontal passage on Sunday winds will pick up again with Small Craft Advisories likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...69-HK  736 FXUS63 KMPX 151727 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through early Friday. A few showers are possible today across southeastern MN. Temperatures warm into the 70s or lower 80s Thursday. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop on the front late Friday afternoon east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas of fog have formed across western MN last evening. It is having a difficult time sustaining itself for long at any given location and appears to be shallow ground fog. A thicker bank of fog and stratus to the north is trying to work south into central MN, but is also not making much progress. High clouds from convection in Iowa are streaming northeast across eastern MN and WI. This should keep fog from becoming too dense or widespread there, although the stratus is making slightly better progress building south in WI. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. A short wave will lift northeast across Iowa this afternoon. It will be the focus for more convection later today, although much of that will remain well to the southeast. There may be a few showers on the northern fringe of the system that can reach southern MN and western WI, but rainfall amounts will be negligible. Southerly flow increases Thursday as a deep trough approaches from the Rockies. A nice bump up in temperatures is expected with low to possibly mid 80s across western MN and 70s across eastern MN and WI. Moisture will begin to advect back north, but the deepest moisture won't arrive until late Friday immediately ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the day will be strongly capped thanks to mid level lapse rates nearing 9 C/km and a relatively dry boundary layer. The cap will gradually erode as low level moisture increases mid to late afternoon. The front will spark scattered thunderstorms along it, likely along or east of I-35 by late afternoon. Initial storms may be splitting supercells given strong unidirectional shear profiles and the likelihood that some parts of the cap may remain. Not too long after initiation, additional activity is likely to form and congeal into a squall line. This evolution may take place southeast of the CWA depending on the timing of the front (which is a little more progressive than before) and when the CAP does break. Nonetheless, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and early evening, mostly in WI. Highs should reach the 70s east of the front Friday afternoon, with temperatures plummeting 30+ degrees into the 30s and 40s by early evening. Moist cyclonic flow for late Friday night and Saturday still brings the potential for some snow showers, but models have trended decidedly drier in the snow department. Highs Saturday may remain in the 30s. Cold temperatures will be short-lived with the trough modifying by Sunday and ridging potentially returning early next week. There remains spread in the guidance with how strong the push toward ridging will be and we may just maintain northwest flow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected for the rest of today. Fog is expected to redevelop again tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. EAU can expect MVFR visibilities with occasional lowering to IFR. Fog will lift quickly throughout the morning and VFR will return for all terminals. KMSP...VFR through the rest of the day. Fog is possible in the morning, but is forecast to remain to the north of MSP. Will continue to monitor. Winds remain light out of the east/northeast, becoming more southeast to southerly throughout Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...WFO MPX  731 FXUS65 KRIW 151728 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1128 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy southwest winds are expected today, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Wind prone locations could see gusts up to 50 mph. Otherwise, temperatures today will be mild across the area. - Snow chances (70-90%) increase this afternoon across west and northwest Wyoming. Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions across nearly all terminals to start the TAF period. KJAC is the only exception as showers begin to move into the area leading to lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions. A nearing disturbance will bring rounds of precipitation to western terminals and increased winds to nearly all terminals this TAF period. KJAC as mentioned earlier will see showers through the afternoon into the evening. There may be some spotty showers after 02Z Thursday with another round of precipitation likely by 09Z. By this time temperatures should drop to near or below freezing leading to snow showers. Otherwise, winds increase for the start of the period at nearly all terminals with gusts of 20 to 35 knots possible through the evening. Winds decrease slightly after sunset with breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots persisting through the overnight. A cold front begins to enter the state Thursday morning which will bring precipitation chances to KCOD, KPNA, KBPI, and KJAC around the end of the TAF period. Winds will start to increase ahead of the frontal passage with many terminals seeing winds increase by around 15Z Thursday. Aside from increasing winds all terminals will likely see lowering ceilings around this time. Mountain obscuration will be persistent through the TAF period especially across western mountains with obscuration increasing by the end of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski  148 FXUS63 KAPX 151729 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 129 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain and storm concerns continue today/tonight into Thursday... - Breezy with additional rain/storm concerns Saturday... - Snow possible Sunday... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 511 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Westerly flow across the PacNW...with a SW-NE oriented longwave trough axis stretching from Baja California into the northern Plains (a couple embedded PV maxima over CO...central SD...and just north of Lake Superior). Ridge axis prevails across the southeastern US...with zonal flow across eastern Canada. Continued plume of anomalous moisture stretching from TX through the MS Valley into the Upper Great Lakes, where pwats exceed 1in. Flow is a bit split across the central US, with a boundary stretching from the Desert SW to the OH Valley/Upper Great Lakes and attendant southwesterly low- level flow...and a northern stream system developing in southern Alberta/Saskatchewan, with warm advection into Manitoba. Cold air (subzero at 850mb) currently across northern/central Canada, attendant to a stationary boundary stretching from British Columbia to Hudson Bay. Michigan stuck in the battlezone...with temps in the lower 40s across the EUP...and lower 60s across southern MI where convection continues; things have largely quieted down across northern MI as of 6z...save for a few showers developing along a subtle deformation area over the eastern UP. Nearly to completely saturated conditions at the surface in the wake of said convection, even up into the UP...and noting quite a bit of fog and low stratus upstream from us, into the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt. Bit of a pattern shift in the works for the latter half of the period...with signals for troughing trying (though not very successfully) to settle into the eastern half of the continent at times in the coming days...particularly late in the weekend into early next week. In the meantime... aforementioned shortwave troughing over the SW US looks to track northeastward into the Midwest late tonight into Thursday...bringing our next shot at showers and storms. Ridging to build immediately behind this for Thursday night into Friday...as southwesterly flow increases ahead of troughing digging into the western US/central Canada. This latter feature will track into the Midwest through the weekend, driving a strong surface low through the Midwest/eastern Canada Friday night into Saturday. Timing of the front is a bit unclear attm but signals point toward cold advection returning at some point on Saturday or Saturday night...cold enough that the "S" word may rear its head again...with breezy northwest/west flow picking up again into Sunday...before high pressure attempts to build in going into early next week...potentially followed by another shot at cold air for the end of the period and beyond. FORECAST DETAILS... Storms today/tonight...expecting the round of rain/storms currently across IA to lift northeastward into Lower MI this morning through mid afternoon. Think the atmosphere has been quite stabilized across northern Michigan after this evening's "fun"...and with stable but murky conditions across the Yoop and WI likely to seep eastward behind a subtle trough axis this morning...which could keep the bulk of the activity south of our area (which is just as well). However...if by some chance the boundary ends up stalling further north or lifts further north quicker than expected...may need to keep an eye on the Manistee River basin this morning, with a little bit of hi-res guidance suggesting it's not impossible there could be 0.25in or so of additional rainfall this morning there. Otherwise...think we will not be as able to achieve instability as we have the last couple days/nights...and may keep things a little tamer, at least for the daytime hours. This being said...if we do manage to break into any sun...low LCLs could become a problem again late, particularly as deep layer shear looks to ramp up again tonight as the LLJ strengthens again...and anticipate another round of stronger storms will remain possible for the latter half of the day into the overnight...though this all depends on the evolution of upstream convection today and tonight ahead of the upstream shortwave axis. Best shot at anything trying to get spicy this afternoon will be near and south of M-72 again, and particularly over toward Saginaw Bay, where things could become uncapped with enough mixing and a northward-enough surge of the warm front today...though some of the more aggressive hi-res guidance would like to develop some activity as far north as the Tip of the Mitt into northeast Lower. Concerning rain today through Thursday...anomalous moisture combined with continued forcing will keep the threat of heavy rain focused across the region. The convective aspect could certainly remain further south, leaving us in a more stratiform area again...and even stratiform rains have potential to be productive, noting the warm cloud layer depth could be close to 3km and supportive of more efficient warm rain processes later this afternoon into tonight. Think the best shot at seeing better accumulations will remain near and south of M-72 (where it is also not needed)...but especially near and south of M-55, with prob guidance highlighting central Lower into Saginaw Bay for an inch or better of rain (70+ percent chance). Not impossible there could be a bit better deformation band/trowal-esque axis tonight, given potential for a more well- defined shortwave trough this time around...and this could favor a shot at a swath of more productive rainfall from late tonight/early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. If this idea comes to fruition...it is (unfortunately) possible it may stretch from NW Lower up into perhaps the Tip of the Mitt region, where hi-res probs suggest there is a low-end shot (20 percent or less) at seeing more than an inch of additional rain in 24hrs thru Thursday afternoon. After a brief reprieve late Thursday into part of Friday...our next shot of rain/storms returns Friday night into Saturday. Appears we should be looking at another slug of anomalous moisture as a more dynamic system moves through. Will have to be on the lookout for more heavy rain concerns, which could be focused at times by fgen, particularly along the cold front Saturday, though this feature would be quicker moving (in theory). Attm...long range prob guidance does hint at potential for around an inch of additional precip (likely rain) Friday night through Sunday morning, though attm potential is low (15 percent or less), which could be attributed to some uncertainty in how the convective aspect plays out...and will need to keep an eye on this. Snow potential returns on the backside of the system Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures fall quite dramatically...850mb temps drop back below 0C, and perhaps as low as -10C to -15C by Sunday, which would crank up overlake instability again on brisk northwest to west flow. High temperatures potentially in the 30s on Sunday, combined with overnight lows falling back to or below freezing...could lead to some accumulations. Fortunately this may only be a quick shot of cold air...otherwise, a prolonged period of cold could further complicate our soggy hydro situation up here. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently lingering -RA/DZ and patchy BR/FG are resulting in IFR to LIFR conditions at all terminals today. These conditions will persist and even degrade as -RA moves in for northern lower terminals after 00z. Slight chance for VCSH/SHRA near KAPN after 21z. Widespread BR/FG will drop most visibilities to 1SM or less after 06z. Winds remain AOB 10kts and VRB, and will turn NW near the end of the period. Conditions will improve after 12z to MVFR/IFR however lingering BR and OVC cigs below 1 kft will continue chances for IFR impacts through the end of the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...ELD  409 FXUS63 KUNR 151730 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1130 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday. - Cooler with rain/snow behind cold front late Thursday through Friday. - Trending warmer Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Active southwesterly flow continues across the central US. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and an upper low ejecting out of the Central Rockies along with an active southern stream as moisture streams into the Southern Plains. Surface low pressure is centered over southeastern NE with a weak gradient over the forecast area. Light showers/sprinkles continue across southwestern SD into south- central SD, although a dry boundary layer and lack of appreciable mid-level moisture will limit precipitation amounts. Showers will taper off this afternoon and early evening as subsidence overspreads the region. Warmer and dry tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the plains. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected with RH falling into the teens to low 20s, particularly portions of NE WY and SW SD, although there is some uncertainty regarding boundary layer winds/if frequent gusts > 25 mph will develop. Even warmer (along and south of I90 in SD) and drier Thursday ahead of a cold front with critical conditions possible; a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from the Weston County plains through southern SD. Cold front arrives Thursday evening bringing cooler air and potential for rain and snow. Upper trough will eject out of the Central Rockies, although recent guidance shows split flow developing. Pacific moisture advects into the region ahead of this trough, although appreciable moisture is lacking (precipitable water values ~100-125% of normal). Best chance of measurable precipitation across NE WY and the northern Black Hills (NBM prob QPF >0.25" ~30-55%). Warm air advection returns Saturday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through 16/15z. After 16/15z, a cold front will enter northeastern WY/northwestern SD with gusty northwest winds behind it. Toward the end of the forecast period, MVFR/IFR conditions may develop north/west of KGCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 509 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions expected today across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions should remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high-based showers may complicate things Thursday by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near-critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...UNR AVIATION...Helgeson FIRE WEATHER...15  622 FXUS63 KGRB 151730 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. 1+ inch hail is the main severe hazard. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate any ongoing flooding. If thunderstorms train over areas that have seen multiple inches of rain the last two days flash flooding would be likely. - Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several area rivers. Expect many rivers to rise this week due to additional rain and runoff from Upper Michigan, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River, where some locations may see major flooding during the mid to late part of the week. - Addtioanl rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday Fog this morning.. Dense fog with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile has spread across much of the lake and bayshore counties overnight, while dense fog is more patchy further west. The coverage of fog will continue to expand over the next few hours before fog starts to dissipate. Fog will be quicker to burn off across central WI compared to eastern and northern WI. Areas along the lake and bay as well as far northern WI may see fog linger into the early afternoon. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Today... A stalled frontal boundary snaking from east-central WI back toward central IA will continue to spur on isolated showers this morning, however, most locations should remain dry. Chance for precipitation increases again this afternoon as a surface low lifts into the region. Main concern with this next round of precipitation is how additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding or lead to new flood concerns given soils are saturated and rivers and streams continue to run high. REFS LPMM shows another 0.25-0.5" of rain with this system through Thursday morning south of a Stevens Point to to Marinette line. However, if more persistent convection is able to develop over this area could see rainfall totals closer to REFS 90th percentiles of 1-1.5" in localized areas. If those higher end amounts do play out in areas with ongoing flooding or areas that have had flooding issues over the past two days flash flooding would be likely. The severe storm threat late this afternoon and evening is more muted compared to the past two days. Forecast soundings do show elevated MUCAPEs of 200-400 J/kg late this afternoon along with 50-60 kts of unidirectional 0-6km shear. This may lead to a marginal risk for 1+ inch hail across part of central and east- central WI. The risk for damaging wind gusts or tornados is very low given a stable boundary layer. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday The latest ensemble means continue to indicate a break in this incredibly wet pattern is forecast this weekend into the middle of next week. Until this time range, the final system to move through the region arrives late Friday afternoon and departs on Saturday. A brief lull in the rainfall is likely on Thursday night into Friday morning as the region will reside between systems. However, that changes by late Friday afternoon when a 35 to 45 kt low level jet advects precipitable water values up to the 99 percentile into the northern Mississippi Valley. Models show precipitation is forecast into expand on Friday afternoon as large scale ascent and moisture increases over the course of the day. Instability increases between 400-700 j/kg on Friday night when the surface low pressure and pwat axis moves through. Because instability peaks at night, the severe risk will likely be muted somewhat due to a capping inversion. But given the wind profiles and some instability, small hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 mph appear possible. Greater concern revolves around rainfall and flooding potential. Probabilities for a 1/2 inch of rain ranges from 40-60% while probabilities for 1 inch of rain ranges from 5-20%. So, most likely looking at precipitation of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms occur. Given the moisture laded soils, the most flood prone areas may see renewed flooding potential. After the system passes, much colder air arrives on Saturday. A change over of precip from rain to snow remains possible. The probability of a 1/2 inch of snow over Vilas county ranges from 20 to 40% on Saturday, so little to no impacts are expected. But gusty winds in excess of 30 mph appear possible. Thereafter, high pressure will move across the region late in the weekend into early next week. This should result in a period of little to no precipitation into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low IFR/LIFR stratus has lingered over much of the forecast area as of early this afternoon, with patchy BR and reduced vsbys persisting over east-central Wisconsin. Some clearing has begun to work its way into north-central Wisconsin, with the potential for RHI to go VFR in the next hour or two. Rain/storm chances then arrive from the south late this afternoon, lasting through Thursday morning. A strong hail-producing storm or two cannot be ruled out during this time, though severe potential should be limited. This being said, have opted to include a PROB30 mention for -TSRA in the east-central TAFs for when thunder seems most likely. Vsbys may drop into IFR or LIFR territory within any heavier rain. Light winds and recent rainfall may result in areas of fog/low stratus development late tonight into early Thursday morning. Locally dense fog with vsbys below 1 SM will be possible, though was not confident enough to provide exact timing resolution as of yet. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread flooding continues across parts of central and east- central WI, where flood warning remain in place, due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms that have produced 3 to 6 inches of rain over the last 48 hours. Extensive road closure remain where the heaviest rain has fallen. Multiple dams have also been over topped at times due to high flows on rivers and streams. Runoff from snow melt in Upper Michigan is also still expected to bring moderate to major flooding on the Menominee River, especially during the mid to late part of the week. If you live near a river or stream, keep a close eye on water levels this week and monitor the latest Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK/MPC AVIATION.......Goodin HYDROLOGY......GK  242 FXUS66 KMFR 151730 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1030 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front continues to pass through the region bringing rainfall, breezy winds, and ceilings just above MVFR. This will likely continue through early this afternoon, but we are expecting showers to become more isolated this afternoon with skies clearing behind the front. The big questions is how much clearing will occur tonight. At this time, we have omitted any visibility restrictions and low clouds overnight, and this may need further evaluation for subsequent TAFs. That said, at this time KRBG has the relatively highest probability for visibility restrictions at about 25% overnight. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 542 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ DISCUSSION...Precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front is falling across areas west of and along the Cascades, with a few stray showers getting farther east. Tripcheck webcams are showing snowfall around Diamond Lake as well as along parts of Highway 97 early this morning. The most active period for this front looks to be through this morning and afternoon. Coastal areas may see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with moderate rainfall also possible into the Umpqua and Illinois valleys. Impactful snowfall over the Cascades is also expected to continue in this timeframe, with SPC guidance keeping 80- 90% chances for snowfall rates to reach 1 inch per hour over peaks and ridgelines and 60-80% chances for neighboring areas. Snowfall over the Cascades continues into the afternoon, but at decreasing rates. Rainfall will reach the Rogue and Applegate valleys in this timeframe. Gusty winds look to develop over broad areas east of the Cascades as well. Precipitation and winds ease into the evening and night. Snow levels drop to 2500 feet late tonight and could reach 1500 feet by Thursday morning. At this point, only scattered post-frontal showers are expected and widespread winter impacts are not a concern. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there's some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. -TAD AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...Flight levels vary across northern California and southern Oregon as an approaching cold front is bringing active weather. MVFR to IFR ceilings are present along the coast, while passing showers are occasionally lowering ceilings and visibilities at area terminals. Snow showers are expected over the Cascades through the day,k with rain showers expected west of the Cascades and occasionally passing over the mountains and reaching farther east. Gusty winds are present at North Bend this morning and look to develop east of the Cascades near the afternoon hours. Winds and precipitation are expected to start easing at the end of the TAF period. -TAD MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A front will bring rain, strong winds, and steep seas today. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Coos Bay today into Thursday morning. Conditions improve late Thursday, but a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  865 FXUS63 KDMX 151730 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms continued overnight, with the surface warm front appearing to remain stalled diagonally across the center of the CWA, seen best by the Td discontinuity between sites such as KDSM and KBNW. Water vapor imagery showed the main circulation for today traversing off the Rockies and into the High Plains. A dry slot could be seen intruding into southeastern Nebraska, with the surface dry line residing in Kansas. Showers and isolated storms will continue to fester in the warm sector through at least the early morning hours, fueled in part by the interacting upper-level jet maxes. The southern jet max will round into the warm sector later this morning, the wind field below unidirectional and similarly enhanced. The dry slot will move into Iowa ahead of the cold front this morning, increasing capping and mid-level lapse rates. Trends have favored a lull in precipitation around midday, opening the opportunity for potential clearing ahead of the main severe window in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will approach 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear over 50kts will provide good ventilation for storms and favor supercells, but low-level shear lacks today, reducing SRH available for tornadoes. The exception will be near the triple point as localized backing of surface winds will elongate hodographs. 00z CAMs had consensus of a longer-lived UH streak following the path of the triple point, with neighboring super cells taking advantage of the NSE on the warm front. This will be the region where the threat for tornadoes is the highest, and have collaborated with SPC to add in a 5% tornado risk area, focused along and near the I-80 corridor. A line of storms will form along the cold front in southern Iowa and pose a wind threat, although capping will allow for discrete modes to start, adding in large hail and isolated tornadoes to the mix. Cold front initiation will begin near the I-35 corridor. Thunderstorms will follow the departure of the surface low and be fueled mainly by the upper-level trough. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 On Thursday a weak ridge will move through Iowa, providing a most welcome respite in the form of a dry, mostly sunny, and mild day with highs roughly in the 75-80 degree range and modest breezes. By Thursday night however, an even deeper longitudinal 500 MB trough will be moving into the Rockies, heralding more active weather to end the week. A surface cyclone will develop in the Southern High Plains with a long inverted trough and sharp baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the Midwest. By Friday morning this front will span from central Kansas, across northwestern Iowa, and into western Wisconsin. Destabilization will occur ahead of the front during the day Friday, and by the afternoon CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG is likely in at least parts of our area, mainly the southern half. Deep-layer shear will be fairly modest and mostly in the form of speed shear, however the strong dynamic forcing ahead of the approaching trough, convergence along the front, and increasing instability will combine with this shear to be more than sufficient to support severe weather potential Friday afternoon and evening, as outlined by SPC outlooks. The storm system will push quickly through Friday night and clear us out, though there may be some light wraparound precipitation in our northern counties lingering into Saturday as the final lobe of the 500 MB trough moves by. With much colder air surging in behind the late Friday front and temperatures expected to fall into the 30s across much of our area by early Saturday, a few flakes of snow cannot be ruled out in northern Iowa but no real accumulation or impact would be expected. Highs on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to mid-50s, then falling even further Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to mid-30s across Iowa resulting in a frost/freeze in many areas. The good news is this cooler weather will be short- lived, as a ridging pattern sets up in the first half of next week supporting a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon and evening, resulting in sporadic periods of MVFR or lower conditions. Have targeted TEMPO/PROB30 groups around most likely time windows of impact, but amendments will be likely based on radar and observational trends. Once the storms clear to the east this evening, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period, but at MCW/ALO there is potential for a period of low stratus and BR in the early morning hours Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee HYDROLOGY...Zogg  880 FXUS66 KSGX 151731 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1031 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will warm to around average today. Stronger onshore flow will spread cooling inland on Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the deserts. There will be northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer with weaker winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average on Sunday. Then cooler and breezy early next week as a low pressure system moves toward the California coast. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... High temperatures will continue to warm today, warming a degree or two near the coast to around 5 degrees inland. High temperatures for today will be around average, ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid to upper 70s for the Inland Empire with the upper 80s for the lower deserts. A low pressure system moving through the Great Basin and northern Rockies on Thursday will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California. There will be stronger southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 60s for the lower deserts. Clouds will increase late tonight into Thursday, then decrease Thursday night. For late Thursday night and Friday, the lower-level flow will become offshore with north to northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph. High temperatures for the deserts will be several degrees cooler on Friday while the coast and valleys warm 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures on Friday will be mostly in the 70s for the coast and valleys to around 80 for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with the lower deserts around 80. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... There will be inland warming during the weekend with weaker winds. High temperatures on Saturday will warm 5 to 10 degrees for inland areas. High temperatures on Sunday will warm another 5 degrees or so for the deserts into the mountains while coastal areas into the western valleys are a few degrees cooler. High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower 90s. Cooler and breezy for early next week as a Pacific low pressure system moves toward the California coast. && .AVIATION... 151730Z...Coasts...Low clouds based around 2000 ft MSL are currently lingering over southern SD County (vcty KSAN). Scattering out by 1830Z with SKC expected through this evening. Patchy low clouds based 1500-2000 ft MSL expected to redevelop over nearshore waters and coastal areas after 06Z Thu. Coverage will remain patchy through Thursday morning. Chances for BKN cigs at TAF sites: 70% at KSAN, 50% at CRQ, 60% at KSNA. Otherwise...mostly clear and VFR conditions today through tonight. && .MARINE... Wind gusts to reach around 20 kts near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...KW  449 FXUS65 KPSR 151732 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1032 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday. - After near normal temperatures through Saturday, daytime highs will warm back into the low to mid 90s for at least Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak upper level ridging is currently moving into the region from the west, but a large Pacific trough moving into the Pacific Northwest is already beginning to disrupt and flatten the ridge. However, height rises today will be enough to raise daytime highs back into the mid 80s in Phoenix to as warm as the upper 80s across southeast California under sunny skies. The Pacific trough is then forecast to track southeastward into the Great Basin later on Thursday, but any height falls over the Desert Southwest will be late Thursday allowing highs to warm further into the upper 80s to maybe a few spots reaching 90 degrees. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten Thursday leading to a return of breezy conditions during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1732Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to follow diurnal tendencies across the Phoenix terminals with speeds generally aob 8 kts. Across SE CA, winds will favor a S-SE component through this afternoon before switching around to the W/SW this evening; expect speeds to mostly remain under 10 kts with extended periods of variability. Breezy conditions will pick up heading into tomorrow afternoon. SKC conditions will persist today before high clouds increase later tonight into tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  535 FXUS63 KJKL 151732 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 132 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Low clouds have been gradually mixing out over the past few hours. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and satellite trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 A minor update has been sent out to update hourly temperatures in the very near term, and to update Sky grids through this afternoon based on latest model guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 As showers taper off heading into Friday morning, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and low 60s along ridge tops. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Relatively quiet weather is expected, with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures warming into the 80s. Because of the approaching system, clouds begin to increase overnight and through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night cool into the 50s and low 60s. Saturday, the upper level trough will be over the Upper Great Lakes, with a warm front extending through the Great Lakes into the Mid- Atlantic, while a trailing cold front will extend through the Upper MidWest, the Mid and Lower Mississippi valleys, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging in the low to mid 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s elsewhere, which may lead to patchy frost in the coldest locations. Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Monday night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 18Z TAF issuance with low level clouds gradually diminishing/mixing out across the region. Southwest winds were generally in the 5 to 12KT range with gusts to near 20KT. These should persist for the first few hours of the period and then diminish near 00Z. Winds should again increase after sunrise on Thursday as a disturbance nears. This system will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds near the end of the period and isolated to scattered showers may occur for the more western locations, KSME, KIOB, and KSYM by the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC AVIATION...JP  696 FXUS61 KBGM 151733 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 133 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. Still anticipating an area of thunderstorms to move through this evening and again Thursday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this evening and into the early overnight hours. Damaging winds and locally heavy rain are the main threats. 2) Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain are the primary threats. 3) A dramatic pattern shift will begin Sunday with a round of showers and storms followed by falling temperatures Sunday night and Monday, along with light snow showers and gusty northwest winds early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The near term concerns are focused around the threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms later today. The environment continues to destabilize this afternoon with surface temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, as of 1 PM, but will jump into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the next couple hours. Surface dew points in the lower 60s will contribute to SB CAPE values ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg, along with steepening low level lapse rates. The combination of a plume of deep available moisture, 25 to 35 kt of deep shear and mid level lapse rates around 6.7 degC/km should provide enough ingredients for deep convection and strong to possibly severe storms. Convective initiation could end up being the challenge. There really isn't any well-defined feature to provide the support for strong ascent, unless the remnants of a propagating, relatively small MCS/MCV coming out of the southern Great Lakes make it to the western NY/PA border. This potential feature could provide the support for the storms to persistent farther to the east and also maintain intensity. The primary threats within any of these storms will be damaging wind gusts between the hours of 6 PM and 12 AM. However, given the amount of deep layer moisture and PWs around 1.5 inches, and if heavy rain falls over the same area or on locations with moist antecedent surface conditions, the threat for localized flash flooding could be enhanced. The convection is expected to diminish in intensity and coverage after 1 AM Thu with fog likely late tonight and early Thu morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... The potential for another round of thunderstorms exists late in the day Thursday as well. An east-west oriented boundary across the region will lift to the north during the morning and afternoon Thursday and allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s once again. Plenty of low level moisture and increasing instability will create favorable conditions for strong to possibly severe convection later in the afternoon Thursday, and into the evening hours. An upper short wave to the west will help provide the necessary forcing for large scale ascent, and when combined with building instability should be sufficient for scattered areas of strong to possibly severe storms. The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook is highlighting a good portion of central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. The primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds, but a secondary threat of a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the amount of shear with backed surface winds along the boundary across central NY. The threat for heavy rain leading to excessive runoff and flash flooding cannot be overlooked either. With multiple previous days of rain and wet surface conditions, any heavy rain exceeding approximately 1.5 inches in an hour could potentially cause issues. Again, after a loss of heating Thursday evening, most of the intense convection should diminish and end close to/around midnight. KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence continues to increase in the onset of a relatively cold air mass early next week. On Saturday a deepening trough over the central US will cause a downstream ridge to amplify over the Northeast and allow for a brief warm up into the low to mid 70s. The leading edge of this cold air mass will push in from the west/sw in the form of showers and thunderstorms Sat night and early Sunday. Brief heavy rain will be followed by falling temperatures Sunday during the afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday midday will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, but drop into the mid to upper 20s Sunday night. Winds will start to really increase out of the northwest Sunday night and continue through the day Monday and Mon night. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s...and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph will make it feel even colder at times. Drier air settles in Mon night but with mid to upper 20s once again. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the region this morning. As the line moves through, winds may become gusty and visibilities will drop to at least MVFR. The rest of the day is looking dry as confidence has increased that the second round of showers/storms will be late in the day, likely not until the evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts. Given the late timing, the severe potential will decrease after sunset so storms should weaken. Still, additional restrictions are expected with this second round of activity. SYR and RME will potentially be too far north for these thunderstorms, so no thunder was included in their TAFs. There is also uncertainty at AVP if the line will extend that far south. For the other terminals, adjustments were made to the Prob30 groups based on updated model guidance. It should be noted that there continues to be uncertainity with the timing. Following the convective line of showers and storms, ceilings will remain in MVFR to Fuel Alt, at least at the CNY terminals. Showers will continue to develop behind the parting line as well, especially at SYR and RME. Winds will become gusty after the morning line of showers moves through with peak gusts around 20 kts. The winds will then become calmer once again this evening and overnight. Wind direction will vary throughout the day, starting out southerly and becoming more westerly in the afternoon. Outlook: Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible. Saturday...Additional restrictions look to arrive along with showers and storms late in the day Saturday. Sunday...Restrictions possible from showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT AVIATION...BTL  131 FXUS64 KLCH 151733 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft continue to dominate the weather pattern across the southeastern U.S. today. A few, light streamer showers have been developing across southeast Texas and western Louisiana where the ridging is a bit weaker and deeper moisture exists. These have not amounted to more than just a brief period of drizzle and this isn't expected to change through the afternoon. Breezy southerly flow will maintain warm and humid conditions across the region through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will move through the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning accompanied by a broken swath of showers and thunderstorms. A narrow swath of deep moisture along and ahead of the front will support periods of heavy rainfall. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall roughly along and north of the HWY 190 corridor for the possibility of nuisance flooding from high rainfall rates. Storm totals are still expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch which wont be enough to put a significant dent in the ongoing drought, but every little bit helps. Cooler, drier and much more pleasant air will advect into the region in the wake of the frontal passage Sunday with highs Sunday afternoon in the low to mid 70s. A couple of chilly nights are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings with lows in the low to mid 50s. Winds will turn back out of the south Tuesday afternoon initializing a gradual warmup through the second half of next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 SCT to BKN VFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon along with breezy southerly winds between 10-15 knots gusting as high as 20. Winds will gradually weaken through the late evening. Some light ground fog may develop where winds drop under 5 knots with an MVFR ceiling developing where winds remain stronger. The majority of guidance is leaning toward the MVFR ceilings as the higher probability event at this time, but fog may be added to the forecast later this evening. Any fog that develops will dissipate by 14Z with VFR conditions to prevail thereafter. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy onshore winds will persist through Saturday with seas consistently in the 1-3 foot range. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Strong offshore winds will develop following the frontal passage with gusts to gale force possible through the day Sunday. Winds will remain elevated through Monday morning before gradually diminishing Monday afternoon. Onshore flow will become reestablished Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy southerly winds will maintain warm, humid conditions across the region through Saturday with no appreciable precipitation chances during that time. A cold front will push through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler, drier air will filter in on breezy northeasterly winds Sunday. Lower minimum RH values are expected Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66  623 FXUS63 KDDC 151734 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to critical conditions, with critical fire weather conditions likely east to Highway 183 corridor. Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning. - Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely. - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today (Wednesday) will continue to be a rather quiet day in between storm systems. In the wake of storm system #1, much drier air will continue to move back in from the west and southwest, especially as winds become southwesterly on Thursday. The persistent southerly winds Thursday into Thursday night will allow gulf moisture to advance north-northwestward ahead of the much larger storm system #2, which by Friday morning will become centered near the Utah-Colorado line. The difference with storm #2 is the much colder air mass moving in from the north across the High Plains, out ahead of the deep mid level trough. Given the magnitude of colder air behind the front, a stronger than normal density current will develop, allowing very intense pressure rises behind the front, and the front will drive south very quickly during the day. All models have been quicker with the front with each successive run, which is a typical behavior as models catch up to the magnitude of cold air mass involved as well as strength of density current. Given that, we will also need to watch for possible High Wind criteria being met in gusts (58+ mph) for an hour or two in strongest initial MSLP rises (upwards of +8 or more mb/3hr). Numerous severe storms will develop along the cold front and in vicinity of the cold front-dryline triple point, but given faster cold front, initiation will most likely now be across our far eastern counties Stafford-Pratt-Barber area, or perhaps even east of there just east of our DDC CWA. The Latest SPC Convective Outlook has shifted the gradient in probabilistic outlooks east to account for the faster/stronger cold front push in the afternoon Friday. The strong cold front will lead to fairly robust temperature drop late Friday Night into early Saturday, with lows Saturday morning well down into the lower 30s much of southwest Kansas with 28F or less generally west of roughly Liberal to Garden City to WaKeeney. After initial collaboration with neighboring NWS offices to the west and northwest, we have considered issuing a Freeze Watch given the historically warm start to this Spring season. Similar temperatures are also likely early Sunday morning across the same general areas of far southwest and far west central Kansas while winds remain light before southwesterly winds pick back up again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West-northwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon at speeds generally less than 15 knots. By early evening, winds will calm down to below 6 knots, remaining light through early Thursday morning before ramping back up out of the south to southwest in the 15 to 20 knot range. The dry air mass will lead to continued widespread VFR flight category through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday, and as confidence continues to increase, we will upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and also add in more counties -- east to a Hays to Coldwater line. Given the faster moving cold front on Friday, widespread critical fire weather conditions will be shunted farther south, and given continued forecast uncertainty in cold front timing, we will hold off on any fire weather headlines for Friday afternoon. After a respite in fire weather concerns Saturday, we will see a return to windy/dry conditions by Sunday with very low RH's down to 8 to 15% for a few hours across all of southwest, west central, and even south central Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid  611 FXUS63 KTOP 151734 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm threat once again today mainly by late afternoon/evening along the cold front over east-central into portions of far northeast Kansas. Hail and wind will be the primary hazards with a low tornado threat. - A stronger storm system set to arrive by Friday afternoon which may bring a larger severe threat to the area especially by afternoon into the evening hours. All hazards may be in focus. - Saturday and Sunday morning could see frost and freeze hazards mainly across areas north of I-70. - Some north-central Kansas counties may see elevated fire danger conditions set up during Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, showers and storms remain mainly northeast of the area and also south of the area ahead of the main western trough in place with axis from the northern Plains into the Baja region. A cold front is roughly along the KS/NE border from southeast NE extending into west central Kansas which is quasi-stationary at the moment. The dryline has retreated back to southwestern KS and western OK. A deep moist Gulf airmass remains in place this morning across the area with dewpoints in the 60s. A LLJ is overhead which is helping keep WAA in place aloft for nocturnal storms to remain in place across the aforementioned areas. The associated isentropic ascent should allow a few of the southern showers and embedded non- severe storms to work into central and east-central Kansas areas over the next several hours. Expect these to generally weaken into the mid-morning hours then gradual clearing should take place through the day. This sets the stage for potential severe storms later this afternoon mainly along the cold front as it is pushed west to east across the area. The upper trough remains mostly positive to neutrally tilted as it advances east. Overall, the phased upper system is expected to undergo a decoupling of sorts as the southern flank deamplifies and the northern portion lifts east/northeast. This will help push the front through the area. As the cap weakens due to the forcing aloft combined with surface heating after clouds clear into the afternoon then expect storms along the cold front. Shear vectors appear to be somewhat parallel to the upper flow as the trough remains mainly positively tilted. This should allow for any initially discrete updrafts to interact with other updrafts fairly quickly and lead storms to more naturally want to congeal. Could see early storms posses a very large hail threat with the unstable and highly sheared environment. Then if a bowing structure can develop wind would be favored but also can't rule out a tornado threat especially if this occurs. The big uncertainty appears to be when clouds clear and how strong the remaining cap is near anticipated initiation by late afternoon. Also, if the cold front begins to move faster then that could focus the better storm threat even east and southeast of the area. This will have to be tracked through the day today. Right now, Friday looks to have a larger severe threat potential as an intense Pacific trough digs into the central Plains. Deep Gulf moisture easily returns to the area with return flow ahead of the forcing that moves into the are by Friday morning into the afternoon. The forcing could be at a magnitude that causes any cap to quickly erode without requiring much heating into the afternoon. This could either be strong enough to cause more showers to develop earlier than anticipated or it could help foster the rapid development of supercells if no showers develop ahead of the system. Shear again looks mainly parallel to the flow so interactions would be likely again. Could see the initial storms become a very large hail threat again then transition to a wind and tornado threat. Any training would probably lead to flooding with several areas seeing high rainfall amounts already the past several days not considering what occurs this afternoon for rainfall amounts. Colder and drier weather not to be ignored into Saturday and Sunday morning may give rise to concerns for frost/freeze conditions mainly north of I-70. Saturday could also see dry and windy conditions into the afternoon over north central areas leading to elevated fire danger conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds have been scattering early this afternoon, and would expect some low-end VFR cumulus to persist in the first part of the period. Will continue to monitor for TS development as a weak cold front passes across the area, but this looks most likely to occur east of terminals and will keep TS out of TAFs as a result. Otherwise, expect gusty SW winds to gradually veer a bit ahead of the front and briefly turn westerly with fropa. As winds diminish this evening, they should back to the SW and remain there through Thursday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Picha  152 FXUS65 KABQ 151734 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1134 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1133 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles again Thursday and Friday mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday to northeastern and east-central NM and a majority of the state Friday, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calmer conditions are moving into the Land of Enchantment tonight as yesterday's upper low opens and ejects northeastward out over the central Great Plains region tonight. A few locations continue to see localized breezy conditions near this midnight hour, but overall lighter winds will continue to take hold tonight. The calmer and clearer conditions in tandem with lowering humidity will allow for temperatures to efficiently drop tonight. This will be especially true over the western and northern thirds of the state where Wednesday morning lows are forecast to fall to near or below freezing. This includes near freezing along the San Juan River near Farmington. Wednesday will see very pleasant spring weather across the Land of Enchantment with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s and modest afternoon breezes. Thursday sees the next round of dry and windy weather move in as a synoptic scale troughing pattern moves into the northwestern CONUS. The main trough axis of this system will still be a ways away over northern NV come Thursday, but still close enough to allow for windy conditions to spread across the state in the afternoon. Peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph will focus over the northeastern highlands and plains. Warm air advection alongside these southwesterly winds will help raise temperatures 5F to 10F into the 70s and 80s for many locations, with 60s in the higher elevations. Wind speeds taper off Thursday night as the atmosphere decouples with stronger speeds on tap for Friday to begin the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Numerical model guidance continues to unfortunately show the track of a late week system stay to the north of NM and over the CO Rockies. This will yield a dry and windy and fire growth pattern across the Land of Enchantment. This system, anchored by a ~100kt H3 jetmax on its southeastern periphery will quickly produce strong southwesterly winds across the state early Friday. These stronger winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will first focus over the central mountain chain before spreading to surrounding lower elevations early Friday afternoon. The Pacific portion of the cold front will bring a sharp northwesterly wind shift to the Four Corners region first near midday before advancing south and eastward across the state reaching the central mountain chain and highlands in the early evening. As such, southwesterly winds will begin to taper off first over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso, becoming focused along the Sangre de Cristo's and over the central highlands Friday evening, veering west to northwest during this time. This will be where the strongest wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored to occur, notably along the central and northeastern highlands and plains. Thereafter, winds will taper off nearly all areas late Friday evening and night. The exception looks to be the central highlands where subsidence behind the front bringing down locally stronger H7 winds will likely keep strong westerly to northwesterly winds going a bit closer to midnight Friday night. The Pacific and backdoor portions of the cold front meet across eastern NM, advancing southward together thru the night with winds lessening area wide thru Saturday morning. A sharp drop in temperatures aided by lessening winds and very low Td's in the single-digits to near zero will allow for some very cold low temperatures Saturday morning. Lows in the teens and low 20s across the western and northern third of the state will threaten a hard freeze, capable of killing early season blooms that awoke too early from March's record heat wave. A soft freeze will also favor areas in the middle Rio Grande Valley in Albuquerque and much of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis, as well as the San Francisco River Valley from Luna to Glenwood. Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s across the area Saturday afternoon with pleasant weather conditions. Winds veer out of the south Sunday bringing a warm up and increased moisture and humidity to the area to end the weekend. This will only yield a modest increase in precipitation chances Sunday and Monday with afternoon virga showers favored for the most part. Tuesday sees forecast confidence plummet as a significant closed low swirls over or just offshore CA. Model guidance is having a notably hard time resolving the evolution and track of this system given its complex and dynamic structure. Nevertheless, increased winds and precipitation chances currently looked favored to enter the region sometime during the middle portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist through the TAF period. West to northwest winds will prevail through the afternoon and until at least 00z, with a few gusts up to 20kts. Relatively light winds are expected overnight, with a drainage wind likely at KSAF. A few fair weather cumulus clouds will interrupt otherwise clear skies across northern and western NM. West to southwest winds look to increase near the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will be present over eastern NM today with modest breezy winds this afternoon. A fire growing pattern returns Thursday ahead of a potent storm system expected to track north of NM Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will favor the northeastern highlands and plains where strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will be present. Minimum humidity falling below 10 percent will allow for elevated to locally critical conditions elsewhere across the state. Much stronger southwesterly winds will expand critical fire weather condtions to a majority of the state Friday, especially along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be favored. A sharp westerly to northwesterly wind shift will follow a fast moving cold front northwest to southeast across the state Friday afternoon and evening. This will usher in a sharp drop in temperatures and dewpoints, allowing for a very cold night with subfreezing temperatures for the northwestern half of the state by Saturday morning. Winds lessen Friday night and Saturday, ending the critical fire weather threat. Temperatures rebound and warm up Sunday and Monday alongside an influx of moisture and better overnight recoveries into the region. Another round of stronger winds looks favored at some point Tuesday or Wednesday next week ahead of an approaching strong Pacific storm system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 35 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 22 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 31 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 25 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 28 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 61 30 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 39 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 61 34 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 28 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 34 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 53 25 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 38 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 48 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 21 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 62 25 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 61 32 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 33 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 35 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 45 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 41 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 72 34 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 33 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 35 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 41 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 74 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 64 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 64 34 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 35 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 62 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 66 29 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 30 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 35 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 69 41 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 39 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 38 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 43 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 77 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 78 43 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 77 39 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 43 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 73 41 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 71 37 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...77  917 FXUS62 KCAE 151734 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 134 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change in the forecast overall, but fire weather concerns are increasing for the weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. A prolonged stretch of dry weather and above-normal temperatures is expected as a prominent upper level ridge and subtropical surface high remain in control through Saturday. Little day-to- day change is anticipated, with temperatures consistently rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees or more above climatological normal. Several daily records may be approached or tied, particularly on Friday and Saturday when highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. That said, guidance has trended slightly cooler with time, so while some daily records are in play, the April record of 96 in Columbia and Augusta appears unlikely. The combination of no rainfall and well above average temperatures will only worsen ongoing drought conditions across the region. Key Message 2: A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. An upper trough over the central CONUS is expected to push eastward through the weekend, breaking down the upper ridge that has been parked over the area. This trough is also forecast to push a cold front toward and through the forecast area as well. There remains limited chances for a few showers as the front passes, but the bigger impact looks to be increased fire danger once again, especially after the front passes. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range over the weekend and slightly lower on Monday. In addition to the near critical to critical RH values this weekend, breezy southwest winds on Saturday switch to west to northwest for Sunday as gusts reach 20-30 mph at times to end the weekend. Wind gusts diminish some for Monday as the front pushes further east of the area. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, as confidence continues to increase that cooler than average temps move into the forecast area to begin the work week. The current blended guidance shows an 80% or greater chance of highs topping out below average on Monday before a gradual warmup into to the middle part of the week. With the stretch of relatively warm temps, these temps might feel on the cool side. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Passing thin cirrus clouds should persist into the evening, perhaps thickening a bit overnight and becoming SCT-BKN at times. However, CIGS remain VFR with no impacts at the terminals. SFC winds remain SLY/SWLY around 8-12 kts with perhaps a few gusts around 15 kts this afternoon. Speeds and gusts diminish diurnally overnight to less than 5 kts, then increase again after sunrise Thursday. VSBY restrictions not expected with the surface airmass remaining quite dry. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND/29 AVIATION...EC  756 FXUS64 KJAN 151735 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rest of today... Morning synoptic and surface analysis indicate large scale troughing west of the MS River Valley while mid level and surface high pressure ridge resides over the southeast States into the Atlantic seaboard, offshore and into the Gulf. This is ushering in moist, southerly flow off the Gulf into the coastal states. Dewpoints will continue to peak into the 60s but some mixing will occur, just not as much as the past few days. With increased warm advection and moist ascent, cloud coverage will persist. Highs will be seasonably warm, some 6F to 12F above (82F to 88F). Heat and humidity will be a touch higher. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through This Morning: As we saw yesterday morning, moisture return into the region, in conjunction with radiational cooling overnight is creating a fog along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts, spreading north into portions of southeast Mississippi. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory where confidence in areas of fog is greatest, but some patchy fog could develop farther north and west than the Pine Belt by sunrise as well. Today through Tuesday: Fog development is expected again late tonight into Thursday morning, spreading from the Gulf Coast into at least central Mississippi with advection/radiation effects. A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US will blunt the chance for an approaching cold front to make its way too far south into our area on Thursday. Timing looks a little faster with the shortwave, and may miss best daytime heating. The 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms were trimmed back into the US Highway 82 corridor. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures on Friday will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by Friday night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chance (60%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 15 kts with gusts up to 25kt through the afternoon. Winds will subside to 5 kts after 00Z Thursday. Another morning of dense fog will be possible between 10- 14Z Thursday across southern/southeastern sites, resulting in MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. As the dense fog dissipate, flight conditions will return to VFR throughout Thursday morning. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 86 64 89 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 60 86 61 89 / 0 10 0 0 Vicksburg 63 87 65 89 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 62 87 62 89 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 67 86 66 89 / 10 30 10 0 Greenwood 66 85 66 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/SW  618 FXUS61 KBOX 151735 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 135 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again Thursday night. - Pattern turns cooler early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. Backdoor front dropping southward will bring cooler temperatures at least to eastern MA coast as winds turn onshore, but warmer temperatures will persist inland. Front itself should meander over southern New England for next couple of days, probably settling near a line from Fitchburg to Norwood and Plymouth later this afternoon, retreating back north overnight, then dropping back southward again Thursday afternoon to about the same location. This certainly presents a big challenge with the temperature forecast, less so in CT and western MA which are more likely to maintain summertime warmth through Friday, but less so across RI and eastern MA depending upon exactly where front ends up and with its timing. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again late Thursday. As front remains over or near southern New England, a series of weak low pressure centers will ride along it, each bringing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms. First round through early tonight looks to be more scattered in nature per high-res guidance. Already seeing CU development upstream across central NY where instability is increasing so that is where convective initiation should take place. Environment here will feature strong 0-6km shear and reasonably strong mid level lapse rates (6C/km) but best instability (1000 J/kg) is focused over western MA/CT which makes sense given that is the area to the west of the front. While we don't expect to see as much activity as we did Tuesday evening, there could still be a few storms between 4 PM and 8 PM, perhaps even a few hours later than that, capable of producing wind damage, especially in CT per HREF helicity swaths. Farther east in the cooler airmass, there is virtually no surface instability but perhaps enough instability aloft coupled with heating to pop up a few brief showers. Next round of showers and embedded thunderstorms arrives during the overnight hours ahead of weak short wave and weak surface low riding along front. We still have strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates approaching 7C/km, but instability is aloft and would support more in way of elevated thunder, not surface based, so overall severe threat is low. Once low moves offshore, it should drop front southward Thu morning before it retreats northward again in afternoon. We then remain under large scale subsidence until next stronger short wave approaches Thu night. Environment remains about same with greatest instability west of I-91 but continued presence of strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates of 6-7C/km. Guidance shows showers and thunderstorms forming to out west during the day, which arrives here Thu night and weakens as it does so. KEY MESSAGE 3...Pattern turns cooler early next week. It's been said all good things must come to an end, and for those who have been enjoying this early taste of summer, a brief pattern change will bring a return to much cooler weather early next week. A strong cold front crosses southern New England Sun followed by a deep upper trough rotating through region, bringing an anomalously cold airmass back into the region, albeit for a short time. Temperatures aloft drop to as low as -7C to -10C at 850 mb Mon morning, only supporting highs in 40s and 50s Mon. It might not be want you want but high pressure covering much of eastern U.S. eventually shifts offshore by midweek as upper flow becomes more zonal, allowing for a slow warming trend. Highs should get back into 60s by Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAFs: High confidence. Backdoor cold front brings wind shift to E/NE and IFR/LIFR conditions along immediate eastern MA coast this afternoon. VFR farther inland with S/SW winds. Expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms from roughly 20z-00z, then a more widespread round of showers and embedded thunderstorms overnight with MVFR or IFR conditions. Similar situation Thu. VFR inland with SW winds, and MVFR/IFR to start closer to coast with E/NE winds, but even these areas should improve to VFR Thu afternoon. Next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should hold off until Thu night. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. Backdoor front meandering over southern New England through Fri will maintain light winds and calm seas, though there will be wind shifts from SW to NE from time to time on eastern MA waters along with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Passage of stronger cold Front Sun should bring SCA conditions to at least outer waters Sun into Mon. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Today's record highs (April 15): Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWD AVIATION...JWD MARINE...JWD CLIMATE...KS  286 FXUS64 KOHX 151735 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger this afternoon due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee's weather today, both at the surface and aloft. So we'll enjoy one more day of this stable and relatively dry air mass before the next active weather system brings some much-needed (but not nearly enough) rainfall to the mid state. A weak surface boundary currently situated to the northwest of Middle Tennessee will ease its way into the region later tonight and Thursday morning, so we can expect some late night and early morning showers. Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, although not as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave looks to push into Land-between-the-Lakes shortly after 00Z Thursday evening, and a convective cluster may accompany the shortwave. The HRRR has at times shown some storms affecting northwest portions of Middle Tennessee during the evening, hence the marginal risk from the SPC. While we cannot completely rule out a wind and hail threat, the risk of severe storms is very low during the early evening. And even that threat will diminish considerably as we lose our daytime heating. QPF values for tomorrow and tomorrow night remain underwhelming; most locations can expect no more than 1/4", although a few spots could see up to 1/2". Either way, it's not nearly enough to make up the growing rainfall deficit. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The atmospheric models continue to depict the bulk of the convective activity Saturday and Saturday evening as post-frontal, so that's going to limit the severe potential. Current QPF values resulting from Saturday's cold front are close to 1/2" area-wide, which will certainly be welcome, but won't do much to alleviate our drought conditions. The primary impact from Saturday's cold front will be the significant drop in temperatures on the other side. Indeed, high temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 60s most areas, and Monday morning's low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s most areas. After that, look for a gradual warming trend throughout next week, with no appreciable rain chances until Thursday night or Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR Conditions will mostly be expected for at least the next 24 hours with predominantly southwest winds gusting up to 20kts during the daytime hours. Although short range models are not impressive with rain coverage on Thursday, did introduce a PROB30 for -SHRA at KCKV between 14Z-17Z as this site and time frame seem to have the best chance of seeing precipitation with the first wave. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 81 61 88 / 0 70 40 20 Clarksville 66 79 61 88 / 30 80 40 20 Crossville 59 79 56 82 / 0 60 60 10 Columbia 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Cookeville 61 79 59 83 / 0 70 50 10 Jamestown 59 79 56 82 / 0 70 50 10 Lawrenceburg 62 82 60 86 / 0 60 40 10 Murfreesboro 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Waverly 65 79 61 88 / 20 80 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Hurley  712 FXUS63 KPAH 151736 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values again today. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will move into the area Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon and evening, and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Stout H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will again bring to the region very warm and mainly dry today into tonight. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm in the far west and northwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated (10-20%). As temperatures at 850mb rise to 16-18C (around the 95th percentile), high temperatures Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s, which will again approach or break record high values. Late tonight into Thursday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north and west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. These showers and storms will be in a decaying mode as they move through the region Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon and evening, an upper- level jet max will pass over the region, which will act to potentially trigger new convection. A few storms reaching strong or severe levels is not out of the question late on Thursday, and SPC has maintained a marginal risk over the region in its latest Day 2 Outlook. If any severe storms develop, marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the main threat. Given the uncertainty regarding recovery following the morning precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding the severe threat. Rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower from yesterday's forecast, with most areas now progged to see about 0.25-0.50" by late Thursday evening. Friday will be see another day of near record warmth as the ridging briefly expands over the region. High temperatures will again reach the middle to upper 80s, and a few locations in west Kentucky may reach 90 degrees. The ridge will begin to break down more significantly Saturday into next week, as troughing over the Upper Midwest dips southward into the area. A surface cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing another chance (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms, in the form of a strongly forced line of storms. These storms could pose a severe risk, especially in southwest IN, where SPC has introduced a slight risk for this time. If severe storms do form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. More beneficial rains are also forecast, with another 0.25-0.50" of rain forecast Saturday into Sunday. Drier and seasonably mild conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday, followed by a warm up into the middle to upper 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A few showers will move near the western/northwestern edges of the CWA this afternoon. Cigs lower into the evening through the night. MVFR conditions are possible late tonight with showers and thunderstorms (with better chances of thunder in the south), as are MVFR vsbys. Southwesterly breezes, gusting to 20-24kts today, lower to around 10kts tonight/tomorrow. A lull in shower activity is expected during the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...ATL  065 FXUS61 KRLX 151738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Still some uncertainty on how far showers and storms will be able to carry into the region Thursday given very dry antecedent conditions. Conditional risk for strong to severe storms Saturday. Increased fire danger through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Near to record heat will persist through Saturday. 2.) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and relatively low humidity will be joined by wind gusts 20-30 mph on Thursday. 3.) A few strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley. High uncertainty as to how far east any threat will carry. 4.) A sharp cold front Saturday night will end the heat wave, bringing a period of beneficial rain and much colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Conditional threat for strong to severe storms Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An anomalous mid-level ridge remains anchored from the central Gulf to Florida, keeping the region in a deep southwesterly flow regime. Across the lowlands, expect highs generally in the 80s with a few sites approaching or exceeding record values today. While a weak shortwave on Thursday will introduce cloud cover and keep highs in the low to mid 80s, the ridge rebuilds Friday. Saturday looks to be the pinnacle of this heat wave for the Metro Valley and southern coalfields. Deterministic guidance is currently near record levels, but 90th percentile statistical data suggests isolated 90F readings are possible if precipitation struggles to invade a very dry antecedent airmass. KEY MESSAGE 2... Fire weather concerns remain at the forefront through Friday. Despite the rapid green-up of live fuels in the lowlands, 10-hour fuel moistures at RAWS sites are critically low, ranging from 7 to 9 percent. This afternoon and Friday will see minimum relative humidity values bottoming out between 30 and 35 percent with relatively light winds. However, Thursday presents a more significant challenge. As a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley, the pressure gradient tightens. Expect southwesterly sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Even with RH values slightly higher (upper 30s) due to moisture advection, the combination of wind and dry dead fuels may necessitate an Increased Fire Danger Statement for at least parts of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... A shortwave trough tracking from the Mississippi Valley will bring the next chance for convection Thursday afternoon. However, a significant dry sub-cloud layer remains between the surface and H500, which will likely limit overall precipitation coverage and result in high-based cells as they progress eastward. Low-level lapse rates remain steep, and with DCAPE potential over 800 J/kg, any sustained updraft will pose a risk for marginally severe downburst winds. The best potential remains focused across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley where forcing is strongest and storms will encounter the least amount of dry air. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift is confirmed for the weekend. A deep longwave trough will eject from the Plains, driving a strong surface cold front through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Synoptic lift is much more robust with this system compared to previous waves. While timing will dictate the exact severe threat, current kinematics with 0-6km bulk wind difference of 45 KTs support organized storm modes should sufficient instability emerge. This system appears to be the most likely candidate for a wetting rain. Strong cold advection follows the frontal passage. H85 temperatures are forecast to drop from +15C on Saturday to -5C by Sunday night. This will result in high temperatures retreating to the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. Under clear skies and diminishing winds Sunday night and Monday night, areas subject to cold air drainage away could see frost. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the next 24 hours. Scattered cumulus with bases around 5000 ft AGL will dissipate after sunset. Southwest winds at 8-12KTs with occasional gusts to 20KTs will diminish to 5KTs or less overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a higher likelihood of MVFR to IFR restrictions Thursday night and late Saturday through Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------- Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 88 / 89 (1994) | 85 / 89 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 89 / 87 (2024) | 83 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 79 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP  403 FXUS62 KTBW 151739 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 139 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Ridging looks to remain over the area through Sunday. Each day high temperatures will increase by a few degrees topping out in the low to mid 90's on the weekend. Some locations will be close to if not breaking high temperatures this weekend. A weak cold front is expected to push through on Monday. Sadly we not expecting much rain with the system with only about a 10 or 20 percent chance. However it should help to bring temperatures back down near average by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of an easterly direction. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong ridging over the area will keep our winds out of an easterly direction through Saturday. Winds will be little higher today and tomorrow around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will calm down for Thursday through Saturday and sit around 5 to 10 knots. A front will start to approach on Sunday that will start to shifts winds to the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong ridging is bringing drier air across much of the southeast. We will see RH get down to around critical levels for on inland locations during the afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 87 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 63 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce  608 FXUS64 KSJT 151740 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update POPs ahead of it as needed this morning. For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will become established and slide east to near the western borders of the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and increased later today if storms start to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Looks like mainly quiet weather for Thursday across the area as weak upper level ridging will be in control. The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR conditions continue at our four southern sites, but these conditions should improve within the next 2-3 hours to VFR as temperatures warm, and ceilings either lift or scatter out. Otherwise, there is again a chance for isolated to scattered TSRA later this afternoon and evening, but confidence in coverage is not high enough to mention in TAFs at this time. VFR through 06Z at all sites with MVFR ceilings moving back into our southern sites tonight between 06Z and 10Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  882 FXUS63 KLSX 151741 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm spring weather continues through the end of the week with a sharp cool down behind a front this weekend. - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected today and again late Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our area remains in an axis of moist, unstable air within southwesterly flow around high pressure off the southeast US coast. Yesterday's thunderstorm activity played out about as expected, with the primary focus being at the boundaries of this unstable air near the front to the north and the dryline to the west. Remnants of this activity may bring some rain to parts of the area this morning. A dying MCS over southwest Missouri will likely bring some light rain to central Missouri over the next few hours, but will likely be drying up by the time it reaches the St Louis metro around dawn. The activity on the front to our north continues to send outflow southward into northern Missouri but is showing signs of lessening convective development on its outflow and may not make it much into our area this morning. As this morning's showers dissipate we'll see temperatures warm well above normal again today. If we get more breaks in the clouds it could warm even further into the 80s, providing more fuel for thunderstorms later in the day, while more extensive cloud cover taking longer to dissipate would hold temperatures down and limit instability. Meanwhile, a subtle wave currently entering Texas will translate quickly northeast today embedded in the broader southeasterly mid level jet. This wave will bring more lift into our area today than we've seen in the last several days, giving us greater confidence that thunderstorms will develop locally during the afternoon and evening hours. A steadily weakening cap through the day will also allow access to surface based instability during the time around peak heating this afternoon, setting the stage for the most widespread thunderstorm threat locally in this air mass. The strong flow aloft in the jet will contribute to strong deep layer shear across the area today, so any storms that form are expected to take the form of supercells, potentially splitting supercells, with primarily a threat for large hail and locally damaging winds. Storms may eventually merge into clusters with a greater wind threat. This warm sector activity fades after peak heating this evening, but another round of storms is likely along the front to our northwest as it makes its way southeast through our region during the evening hours. This will be driven in part by low level convergence on the front supported by the passage of the primary shortwave trough aloft which helps to finally drive this front southeast through our area. This front doesn't offer much of a change in wind direction, but we do see a modest drop in dewpoints behind it, from the mid 60s today to the mid 50s tomorrow. That's enough to reduce our rain chances on Thursday behind the front, though some showers may linger mainly in the morning in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The severe weather threat for Thursday afternoon similarly shifts southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Despite the passage of the weak cold front, more sun on Thursday allows us to warm into the 80s again across most of the region. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The next trough to affect our weather is currently near British Columbia making its presence felt across the Pacific Northwest. It will track through the Northern Rockies on Thursday before emerging out into the Plains on Friday. This trough is much more amplified than the last one and will set up a much stronger frontal system stretching from Minnesota to Texas on Friday. Moisture return ahead of the front re-establishes an unstable air mass beneath strong southwesterly flow aloft setting up the potential for another round of severe weather through the middle of the country. Latest guidance is in good agreement on the timing of this front with the focus for severe thunderstorm development to our northwest from eastern Kansas to northern Iowa. Although initially supercells, wind flow parallel to the boundary suggests storms will rapidly coalesce into a line with this line pushing east through the evening along or ahead of the front. This doesn't look to arrive into our area until later in the evening when instability will be decreasing. Thus the threat in our area takes on a strong northwest to southeast gradient as the line of storms eventually runs out of good instability. The primary threats with this line will be damaging winds, although QLCS tornadoes will also be possible if portions of the line can surge forward and become better aligned with the low level shear. The air mass behind this front will be much cooler than we've seen lately as it has its origins in the Arctic. Dewpoints drop from the 60s to the 20s and daytime highs within this air mass likely only top out in the 50s to low 60s (5 to 10 degrees below normal). Uncertainty on how quickly this front moves through Saturday morning leads to a wide spread in guidance for high temperatures on Saturday, but the warmer end highs (near 70) will likely be in the morning with cooler air blowing in through the day. Nighttime lows drop into the 30s, but persistent winds likely keep us just above frost or freeze levels. A sunny Sunday will begin to moderate the air mass further with highs more likely to reach 60 area wide. The warm up continues further Monday into Tuesday as southerly winds return and temperatures push back into the 70s beneath a ridge aloft arriving from the west. Rain chances remain low until the middle to end of next week as the ridge shifts east and exposes us to more potential troughing influences. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts due to thunderstorms are expected at all local terminals through the TAF period, but confidence in specifics on timing and magnitude of impacts remains low. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently heading toward KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS and will bring intermittent impacts to these terminals through the mid afternoon. Then, there is a medium chance for additional showers and thunderstorms at KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN during the mid afternoon and early evening. There is a low chance that these storms move into the vicinity of KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS later in the evening. However, if this round of storms does not materialize, then a line of broken thunderstorms is expected during the evening and overnight hours that will sweep across all local terminals. Any thunderstorm that directly impacts terminals will be capable of IFR visibilities, frequent lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Additional thunderstorms are expected Friday evening. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  306 FXUS63 KLMK 151741 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy tomorrow. * Dry weather is likely to continue today and tonight (~90% confidence). The next chance for rainfall is expected Thursday, with some strong storms possible in the afternoon and evening. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mild conditions continue across southern IN and central KY this morning with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s as of 07Z. Scattered high clouds continue to stream across the region, with these clouds spreading east from overnight convection across the southern Plains. No significant weather is expected through sunrise, with mild temperatures and light S/SW breezes continuing across the area. Today's forecast is pretty similar to the last few days as southeast US upper ridging and broad SW flow across the Plains and Midwest continues. Within this belt of SW flow, an unseasonably warm and unstable air mass will again be present just to the north and west of our area, with waves of strong to severe storms expected to continue this afternoon and evening. HREF paintball plots of reflectivity greater than 30 dBZ shows the vast majority of the convective activity remaining along and north of I-70 today, though there is a 10-15% chance that a stray storm could approach our northern row of IN counties later today. Otherwise, the main story today will be the continuation of well-above normal temperatures, with highs expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. SW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph are expected again today, along with a scattered stratocumulus field in addition to the high clouds. An upper-level shortwave will begin to erode the southeast ridge tonight, with the greatest height falls across the Ohio Valley not expected until early Thursday morning. As a result, showers and thunderstorms should begin to push closer to the area after midnight, though it's unlikely that most of this activity will reach our western counties until the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. For most of tonight, expect another mild night with temperatures falling through the 70s into the 60s with light S/SW winds. As convection approaches our area Thursday morning, it is expected to outrun the best instability axis. As a result, showers and storms should be weakening as they move across SW IN/W KY, and there's only a ~15% chance of thunder by the time activity reaches our western counties. After sunrise Thursday, rain showers should continue to weaken as they approach the I-65 corridor, with increasing clouds expected with this wave of showers. How long these clouds can remain over the area will determine the extent of the strong/severe storm threat Thursday, as lingering clouds could limit the amount of instability available for storms Thursday afternoon and evening. 0Z HREF progs show an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE nosing in from the southwest as sfc dewpoints should be in the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. 45-50 kt 500 mb flow should allow for roughly 40 kt of effective bulk shear, so organized multicells and perhaps a few bowing segments would be possible. The main severe hazard tomorrow afternoon should be damaging wind gusts, though if any of the higher- end instability progs verifies, severe hail would also be possible. The window for strong to severe storms should be between roughly 4 PM and 10 PM, with instability decreasing after sunset Thursday. Once showers and storms dissipate Thursday night, clearing skies and light winds are expected through Friday morning. Any areas which receive rainfall could see patchy fog develop Friday morning. Low temperatures should fall into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Friday Night... Another upper trough ejecting across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day on Friday will cause ridging to flex northward into the Ohio Valley, though this episode of the southeast US ridging should be short-lived. Southwest flow should increase during the day on Friday, with another day of near-record temperatures expected as highs should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Upper ridging should be strong enough to keep most areas dry Friday into Friday evening, with waves of strong to severe convection again passing to the NW of the region. There is still a modest signal that a few showers could develop as the LLJ intensifies and pushes into the area Friday night, with the best chances for rain through Saturday morning expected west of I-65. Saturday and Saturday Night... Upper troughing over the Plains is expected to amplify as it crosses the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with the trough expected to remain fairly open/positively-tilted as it approaches the Ohio Valley. The sfc low associated with this upper wave is expected to be over central Ontario by Saturday afternoon, with an extensive cold front stretching to the south-southwest into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, S/SW winds should allow for another warm day on Saturday, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s Saturday afternoon, with increasing clouds and showers/storms limiting heating, especially west of I-65. Uncertainty with how much destabilization will occur is again a limiting factor for the severe storm potential Saturday into Saturday evening. Current LREF 50th percentile SBCAPE values range from 400-800 J/kg across the area, with high-end (90th percentile) values around 1000-1400 J/kg. This will be sufficient for strong storms given the strong forcing along the front and ~40 kt of effective bulk shear; however, if there is more early-day showers and cloud cover, the overall threat would be reduced. Model soundings show fairly unidirectional shear profiles ahead of the front, and linear convective modes would be the most likely. As a result, continue to think that damaging winds would be the main threat with any strong storms. In the 0Z guidance, timing has remained fairly consistent, with the best chances for storms crossing the area between the early afternoon and just after sunset Saturday. By the late evening hours Saturday, winds are expected to veer to the W/NW, with temperatures tumbling into the 40s Sunday morning. Showers may linger across east central and southeast KY into the pre-dawn hours Sunday, with rapid clearing taking place to the NW. Sunday into Early Next Week... Seasonably cool and dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday as the synoptic pattern remains progressive and upper troughing quickly crosses the region. Sfc high pressure should move over the area Sunday night into Monday morning, with this likely being the coolest morning over the next 7 days. There are 40-50% chances for low temperatures that would be support frost (<= 37F) Monday morning, so that's something we'll have to monitor in the otherwise quiet pattern. A warming trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next week, with NW flow keeping conditions dry through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions today with high level clouds near 25 kft lingering into the overnight. Some SCT mid level clouds are passing through but these are expected to come and go throughout the evening. SW to S flow will dominate the whole period with current wind gusts of 20- 25 kts this afternoon before sunset. Gusts will die down overnight and clouds will thicken and lower by Thursday morning by 12Z. An approaching line of showers and storms will be moving in from the west but will quickly weaken and begin to dissipate as they approach our northwestern airports (HNB and SDF). Near and shortly after 15Z, a few isolated showers are possible that could drop ceilings to 3,500ft temporarily before quickly dissipating in the morning. Otherwise, everyone remains dry with OVC clouds Thursday morning with VFR conditions through the early afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...BKF  296 FXUS61 KALY 151742 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 142 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for today was expanded a bit to cover most areas south of I-90. The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for tomorrow was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-90 today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the northern/eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshire County where SPC expanded its marginal risk (level 1 of 5) a bit compared to yesterday. However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity. We therefore capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated to widely scattered convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm may become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low. For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... After our stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, a potent cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday resulting in a widespread period of rain followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. With the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 20 to 40% chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts through 8PM Sunday to exceed 0.50" across the area, flooding impacts are unlikely. However, there is medium to high confidence that temperatures on Monday drop below normal with the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing less than a 20% chance for temperatures across most of eastern NY and western New England to rise above 50 degrees. The potential for impactful weather remains low Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z/Thursday, mainly VFR conditions expected through early this evening, though can not rule out a brief period of MVFR Vsbys in isolated showers through 22Z/Thu, perhaps with thunder at KPOU. Showers/thunderstorms currently across lower MI and the midwest should track eastward into the region between 04Z-08Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. Light/variable winds should trend into the southwest by mid/late afternoon and increase to 5-10 KT with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible at KPOU, KPSF and KALB. KGFL will generally have light northeast to east winds 4-8 KT before becoming south to southwest by late afternoon at 5-10 KT. Winds become light/variable after sunset through early Thursday morning, before shifting into the southwest and increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...24/23 CLIMATE...07  784 FXUS63 KFSD 151745 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening, mainly focused across northwestern Iowa and adjacent areas in eastern Nebraska and extreme southeastern South Dakota. - An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon and evening along/south of a line from Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, Iowa. Highest risk is 2 to 6 PM. If a stronger storm can develop, main threats are hail to half dollar ball size (1.25 inches) and wind gusts to 60 mph. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical to critical fire danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for south central and southeast South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A pattern shift leads to a brief cool down late this week into the weekend with continued precipitation chances. Uncertainty remains, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible again Friday. Much colder air could lead to wintry precipitation, although timing and type remain uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Calm to light and variable winds are leading to another morning of patchy fog, including locally dense fog, mainly north of I-90 where skies have cleared. Fog should lift through the mid morning hours. Expect any visibility below 1/2 miles to be limited in scope, so not anticipating any headlines. But with guidance handling this a bit poorly, will keep an eye on trends. Showers and isolated storms continue to move north from NE this morning, but most areas are struggling to see precipitation reach the ground. For later today, SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted both the Marginal and Slight risks (levels 1 and 2 of 5, respectively) back west - with the Marginal into northeastern NE and northeastern IA and the Slight risk southeast of Sloan to Storm Lake line. Some uncertainty in severe risk depending on how far north the lower level front will lift through the day and if there is any morning convection across the area. Regardless, shear values and mid level lapse rates still appear supportive of large hail to ping pong ball size. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible with stronger storms. Biggest question will be the instability, with most deterministic guidance limiting MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg or less, which would temper the severe potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out if the boundary can sneak back into our area with low level shear and increased instability tied to that front. Greatest risk looks to be from 3 to 7 PM. CAMs do overall develop storms across NE and move them northeast into our area during this time. Any storm across the area will be capable of lightning, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans today/tonight. Another change to the forecast in the relatively shorter term was the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of I- 29 for Thursday afternoon and evening. More details are below in the Fire Weather Section of this discussion, but breezy winds and very low humidity with warmer temperatures combine for near critical to critical fire conditions. Thursday is another day to use extreme caution to prevent fire start. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop off to our south and west over the next hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750 mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather. However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a thunderstorm can develop. A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20 corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the 45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave move out of the area. We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29, which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows. The main western US trough that has been helping to send all these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected, with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential. Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick warming trend looks possible into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Additional showers and thundershowers will be lifting through the Highway 20 corridor over the next few hours, but the better chance of strong to severe storms look to remain just south of the area. Still lower confidence on the potential for a storm at KSUX given the sporadic nature of any development, but still enough confidence to keep the PROB30 group in there for -TSRA, but adjusted the times slightly. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as any fog tonight should stay east of our area. Winds will be mainly light and variable this afternoon into tonight, but winds will be increasing into the day on Thursday. By the late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday, look for southerly gusts upwards of 20-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although humidity values today fall to below 25% west of the James River, light southerly winds preclude any widespread concerns. Minimum RH values increase further east with light winds and scattered shower/storm chances, widespread elevated fire danger is not expected today. Attention turns to Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 80s. A dry day is expected, and much drier air moves into the region leading to minimum humidity values as low as 15% and only as high as around 30%. These factors along with strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 30 mph will lead to near critical to critical fire conditions as fuels remain dry. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued along and west of I-29 from noon to 8 PM, where the strongest winds and lowest humidity coincide. Confidence is low in the potential for near critical fire conditions Friday due to a cold front moving through Thursday into Friday. This timing impacts temperatures and there may be some showers with some uncertainty in the precipitation type. Northwesterly winds on Friday will be stronger than Thursday, gusting to around 40 mph. However, RH values are expected to be near or exceed 35%, which with cooler temperatures and precipitation, may temper widespread concerns. Breezy and cooler weather Saturday may lead to elevated concerns, but confidence is low. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040- 050-052>071. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098. IA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IAZ001-012-020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet FIRE WEATHER...SG  179 FXUS63 KLOT 151745 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected early this morning through tonight. Some could be severe and produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into the day on Friday before another storm system arrives Friday evening into early Saturday. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Tonight: An elongated axis of elevated showers and thunderstorms continues early this morning from southeast Nebraska through southern Michigan. Some of these storms have taken advantage of a small area of steeper mid-level lapse rates amidst strong effective shear to 50 kt and managed to produce severe hail. Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through early this morning. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how convective trends unfold the remainder of the day owing to the potential for multiple "waves" of showers and storms. Each model and their respective runs vary on the details, including timing and placement of the different bands of storms and how they interact with each other (outflows, cold pools, etc.). It does appear that after this initial round of stronger storms early this mornings sags farther east and southeast there may be a temporary decrease in the thunderstorm coverage during the rest of the morning hours when lapse rates here locally decrease. Once we get into the afternoon hours the threat of severe weather increases again as lapse rates steepen allowing instability to quickly build over the area (MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg) amidst ample deep layer shear. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the rest of the area to a Level 2 of 5 severe thunderstorm risk which seems appropriate, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts with any embedded bowing segments. A locally higher hail threat may materialize with any embedded semi-discrete supercells. Another concern for today is the potential for flash flooding as additional waves of heavy rainfall potentially occur over the same areas. Have extended the Flood Watch in duration and area to account for this. Thursday: A compact shortwave and associated weak surface low/MCV is forecast to move across or near the area during the day on Thursday which will likely be accompanied by additional scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Once that moves off to the east a very brief break in the wet and stormy pattern is expected Thursday night through the day on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will also end up cooler (albeit still unseasonably warm) with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest across far northeast Illinois. Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Lingering VFR showers through this afternoon with gusty southwest winds - Two rounds of storms with better chances at/near terminals late this afternoon through midnight. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. - Weaker showers fester through tomorrow morning. - Wind shift to the northeast tomorrow afternoon A surface low, currently analyzed just north of Kansas City, Missouri, will move east-northeast through today and the overnight. This low will be the driving force behind the shower and storm threat tonight. In the meantime, weak rain showers persist this afternoon out ahead of it. Winds will remain out of the southwest through most of the TAF window, with persistent gusts 20 to 25 knots, not diminishing until after midnight. As the low moves closer, it will push a warm front northward through Illinois for the first wave of showers and thunderstorms this evening. There could be a dry slot for a couple hours, but then as the low passes north of the area, it will drag a cold front across northern Illinois for a second round of showers and thunderstorms across the airspace. Some of these storms could become strong to even severe, producing hail and erratic, strong wind gusts. As the front moves east, showers could fester through the morning. There is lower confidence in ceiling trends due to model disagreement, but erred more cynical behind the low and forecasted widespread MVFR conditions across the region through the morning. Winds will become more westerly in the morning, but as the low continues its journey east of the area, models are suggesting a weak front will be sent southward across Lake Michigan and switch winds over to the northeast tomorrow afternoon. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010- INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  126 FXUS63 KGID 151745 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - At least spotty, isolated thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area today, but mostly favoring our Nebraska counties. The majority of this hit-or- miss activity should be weak. However, a few storms could become strong to marginally-severe (perhaps even outside of SPC's current official Marginal Risk area), capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. - Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA), and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM. Unfortunately, a few more upcoming days could also contain critical fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details). - Although looking short of any High Wind criteria, moderately strong northerly gusts of 40+ MPH still look likely behind Friday's rather sharp cold frontal passage. - Speaking of Friday's cold front, although we still can't completely declare an "all clear" for any stronger thunderstorm threat mainly for our extreme southeastern CWA for late Friday afternoon-evening, models seem to be locking in an a faster-versus-slower cold frontal passage, likely "sparing" our CWA from a more widespread severe threat that should focus at least slightly to our south/east. - With spring vegetative growth roughly 3 WEEKS "ahead of schedule" per traditional growing degree day (GDD) metrics, we will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM...for at least slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. - Peeking just beyond our official 7-day forecast: Another large-scale low pressure system could bring some rain chances (great news) and MAYBE a severe thunderstorm threat (not great, but far from a "sure thing") around next Wednesday (April 22). && .UPDATE... Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Thursday): - No truly MAJOR forecast changes to speak of versus previous issuance, although high temps for Friday have come down a good 10-ish degrees (and quite possibly not yet enough) over the past 24 hours as models seem to be honing in on a faster cold frontal passage. - For all other longer-term-related notes, the highlights are covered in "Key Messages" above, and all detailed fire weather concerns are in a separate "Fire Weather" section below. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thursday evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Looking back over the last 12 hours, as expected the vast majority of our CWA was spared any severe storm threat. However, the late afternoon-early evening hours popped a few rogue stronger storms near/just north of a sharp front bisecting our CWA (nickel hail reported in Hordville), while the later evening hours (mainly 10pm-midnight) brought a less surprising, brief flare-up of a few severe storms (including a slightly-elevated supercell) to our far southeastern CWA (mainly affecting Jewell/Mitchell/Thayer counties)...with these storms erupting along the nose of a nocturnal low level jet. In the hours since, the aforementioned strong/severe storms vacated our far southeast counties. the vast majority of our CWA has been dry, with only some spotty showers/brief weak storms focused mainly north of I-80. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that a large-scale trough and associated primary low pressure system is pushing ever-near to us, it's main vorticity max (spin) noted right over the NE/KS/CO border area. Meanwhile, at the surface, a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently resides over our extreme southeastern CWA (Mitchell County area). To it's north and northwest, nearly our entire CWA is thus "post-frontal", with generally northerly breezes sustained at least 5-15 MPH. Under a varied mix of clear skies and clouds, low temperatures are forecast to bottom out upper 40s-mid 50s across most of our CWA. - TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (through 7-9 PM): Aloft, the aforementioned upper trough/vort max currently to our west will track eastward....directly overhead...over the course of the day, reaching the IA/NE/MO border area by sunset. Meanwhile at the surface, the low pressure center in our far southeast CWA will steadily track/depart east-northeastward today, reaching central IA by evening. With our CWA positioned entirely behind the departing surface low today (resulting in generally 10-20 MPH breezes through much of the day, gradually shifting from more northerly to more westerly), this will clearly "spare" us from the MAIN severe thunderstorm risk within the greater region...particularly any tornado risk...which will focus within the primary low-level instability/CAPE axis extending from IA/MO southwestward into OK/TX. HOWEVER, with residual low-mid level moisture lingering over our area, along with cooler air aloft under the heart of the upper low passing overhead, this is a rather classic setup for at least a few lines/clusters of isolated-to-scattered showers and mostly-weak thunderstorms to gradually translate across our CWA from west-to-east over the course of the day. While we are carrying at least slight (20%) chances for this activity everywhere, the most concentrated coverage should focus over our Nebraska counties. Getting back to severe potential though, while not high, these setups often yield a FEW strong to perhaps marginally-severe storms, and sometimes "random" funnel clouds that rarely touch down. Whether we actually do end up seeing a couple of rogue severe storms will likely depend on just how much instability/CAPE can be realized, with the latest RAP/HRRR tending to keep CAPE mainly 500 J/kg or less, while the NAM suggests a bit higher potential for CAPE to at least approach 1000 J/kg, which would yield a bit greater potential for a few storms with mainly a quarter size hail and perhaps 60 MPH wind threat. This possible strong/marginally-severe storm threat could be rather "random" in area today, and could even start as early as mid-morning. Officially, SPC has only painted roughly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA in it's official Marginal Risk on the initial Day 1 outlook, but in all reality a rogue severe storm could back into our western counties. In summary: although sparse in coverage, a few strong to MAYBE marginally- severe storms cannot be ruled out today, but any such threat (including all rain chances) should exit our far eastern counties by no later than 7-9 PM as the upper low departs. In other departments today: confidence in "exact" high temps is not overly-high and will depend on how much clearing is able to occur under the passing upper wave, but ultimately kept similar to previous forecast with most places aimed 71-74 degrees. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Once the back edge of any showers/storms clear our far eastern zones by around sunset, confidence is high in a dry overnight under clear skies. In response to surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas, our breezes will swing around to south-southwesterly, but remain fairly light only around 5-10 MPH. If winds end up a little lighter than forecast, would not be surprised to see low temps drop a little colder than forecast, but for now we're calling for 40-46 most areas, with a few upper 30s possible mainly in Valley/Dawson counties. - THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: Unfortunately, our main concerns swing right back to fire weather (see separate section below for more details). Under plentiful sunshine, southerly winds will steadily increase through the day as surface low pressure rapidly deepens to our west off the Front Range/High Plains, with sustained speeds by afternoon commonly around 20 MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH. The resultant low-level warm air advection will boost high temps a good 10-15 degrees warmer than today, with our forecast still aiming for highs mainly 83-86 degrees. South-southeast winds will remain elevated well into the night as the strong surface low pressure arrives into western NE...just ahead of a strong cold front poised to slice through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Today... The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms. Tonight... We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday... The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect. Thursday... This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below. Friday Through next Weekend... A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below. Monday and Tuesday... The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through the period. Spotty showers will hang around off and on through mid-afternoon, but given limited predictability and coverage, opted to just keep it VCSH attm. Breezy N/NW winds should gradually dissipate towards early evening, then turn to the S/SSW for the overnight. Winds will be breezy out of the S-SW all day on Thursday - sustained around 15kt and gusts around 25kt. Confidence: Medium to high. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred overnight and will continue into today across parts of our forecast area (CWA), the coverage of truly appreciable rain over the coming days continues to look pretty lackluster. As a result, and because spring green-up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for potentially critical fire weather conditions on some upcoming afternoons. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA). As a surface low pressure system deepens to our west, southerly winds will reach solidly-breeze levels...commonly sustained around 20 MPH and gusting at least 25-30 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM Thursday for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that RH is expected to be slow-to-rise much above 20-30% until after dark. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Thies FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  452 FXUS63 KDVN 151746 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers and storms are expected through tonight. Additional severe storms are possible, mainly this afternoon and evening. The entire area is in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - Threat for flash flooding from the potential for repeated rounds of storms and high rainfall rates through this evening. Greatest concern is north of the Hwy 30 corridor where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rains of 1-3+ inches. Any additional heavy rain in these areas will increase the risk for flooding, and a Flood Watch has been issued through this evening. - SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather to include much of the area Friday. Damaging winds and tornadoes appear to be the primary threats. - Turning much cooler/seasonable this weekend with the potential for frost/freeze conditions Saturday night and again Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and storms are widespread early this morning north of Hwy 34 aided by ascent from a weak mid level impulse and elevated warm, moist advection atop a cool pool with an outflow boundary near a Princeton, IL to Mount Pleasant, IA line continuing to advance southeastward. Some gusty winds and isolated hail cannot be ruled out across the south where a moderately unstable environment has largely been left undisturbed until now. In addition, a veered LLJ is leading to at least a temporary favorable setup for a period of training of convection and locally heavy rain immediately north of the outflow. Anticipate a gradual decrease in coverage by mid to late morning, with the waning nocturnal LLJ and passage of the shortwave. The break in activity may allow for some recovery or destabilization to occur ahead of a more vigorous shortwave trough and attendant surface low lifting through western Iowa this evening. The amount of recovery/destabilization is uncertain and thus some uncertainty exists with the magnitude/ coverage of severe storms later today through this evening. That being said, higher confidence exists on more widespread coverage of storms this afternoon into tonight due to the arrival of stronger dynamics/forcing aided by 50-70m height falls at 500 hPa and more robust mid level flow with 50-60+ kt winds 700-500 hPa. This should foster more widespread convection by later today and tonight with an attendant severe threat with all hazards in play. The lifting low should help lift the remnant outflow back northward as a pseudo-warm front by this evening. While overall low level shear is much weaker, there will be a tornado threat perhaps mostly focused along/near this boundary with any cells that can ingest the enhanced SRH. Right now this boundary placement looks to be roughly between Hwy 30 and Hwy 34 by this evening, and thus the higher 5% tornado probabilities in this area mainly on the Iowa side where shear is a bit higher being in closer proximity to the lifting surface low. The strong deep layer shear will provide good venting aloft and combined with a rather perpendicular vector to the initiating boundary will prove favorable for discrete supercells initially with all hazards in play. Then in time, we may see a more mixed mode with perhaps more muticell/linear evolution taking place tonight ahead of the advancing cold front, with largely a resulting wind and isolated tornado threat. Potential for repeated storms and periods of high rainfall rates of 1+ inch/hr will foster a threat for heavy rain and flooding. The greatest risk or most vulnerable area appears to be north of Hwy 30 where the ground is saturated from recent heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches, and as a result I have issued a Flood Watch through this evening. This activity should start to diminish by late evening and overnight with the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A short period of drier weather is expected by Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, as a bout of high pressure quickly traverses the region. As the high departs Friday afternoon, return flow/warm advection will commence and strengthen with a warm front lifting northward into the region. We will have to watch for any storm development in the afternoon along the lifting warm front. Currently though this potential is looking somewhat lower due to some capping and lack of synoptic scale ascent. The main corridor for severe storm development Friday PM looks to be to our west ahead of a cold front and deeper surface low attendant to a lifting shortwave. Very strong wind fields with parallel vector orientation to the cold front should support a fairly quick transition and upscale growth to a line of storms or QLCS, which should then sweep eastward across the area during the evening and early overnight with mainly an attendant damaging wind threat, and tornado threat with any embedded mesovorts. SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to include much of the service area for Friday. The strong cold front will sweep through the area late Friday night/early Saturday. In the wake, scattered showers are possible Saturday PM in the cyclonic flow/cold advection. Otherwise, blustery and much cooler/seasonable conditions are on tap Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures look to dip down around or possibly below freezing in parts of the area both nights leading to the potential for frost (should winds decouple) and/or freeze conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main focus of this TAF issuance is on the shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. The first wave of showers and a couple lightning strikes are lifting northeastward and are expected to pass out of the TAF sites in the next couple hours. Another line of storms is expected to develop around or after 22Z, then traverse the TAF sites through about 04Z. Tried to adjust the timing a bit with the latest guidance to start/end the storm potential from west to east. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with any storm that develops with visibilities possibly dropping lower in heavier precipitation. Erratic wind gusts may exceed 35-30kts as the main line of storms passes through the TAF sites. Conditions will improve from west to east after overnight into Thursday morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054. IL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Cooley  212 FXUS61 KCLE 151747 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 147 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The previous forecast largely remains on track with multiple rounds of thunderstorms (some severe) and heavy rain expected through Thursday and again on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through Thursday with another round of convection possible Saturday as the active pattern continues. All severe weather hazards are possible. 2) Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are likely through early Thursday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northwest Ohio, where confidence in flooding is highest. 3) Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed for Ohio counties Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Multiple rounds of convection are expected through Wednesday as a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area. Additional storms are likely as an upper trough axis moves across the area late Thursday with another round of storms likely as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with each round of convection. See the following breakdown below for more details: Today: The first round of convection is currently moving into the local area. The warm, moist flow and LLJ could support convective maintenance on the southern flank of the line for at least the next few hours, although the shear environment is less optimal across the local area. All convective hazards will be on the table but damaging wind gusts will definitely be the primary concern with a few tornadic spin-ups possible on the leading edge of the line. CAMs suggest that storms will weaken as they move across the area, which would likely result in boundaries left behind that will serve as a focus for convective initiation/enhancement later today. Similar to Tuesday, multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today with stronger convection possible later this afternoon into this evening. The deep, moist flow will allow for efficient destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep shear values of 40+ knots anticipated. This would support organized convection and potential for another round of strong to severe storms with all hazards (especially damaging winds) possible. That said, given the reliance on mesoscale features for forcing, confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms is medium at best. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the entire area today. Thursday: Upper level support will be a bit better on Thursday the frontal boundary finally pushes southeast as a weak cold front. Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the warm air advection regime Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon with more organized convection likely with the front later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out considering the wind field. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the entire local area. Saturday: A brief respite in showers and thunderstorm chances is anticipated on Friday, however yet another round of storms (possibly strong to severe) will return as the next cold front, which will be stronger than Thursday's, approaches. Given moist return flow ahead of the front, all severe hazards are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of the severity of storms, very heavy rainfall with rates of at least 1-2 inches is likely with any thunderstorms given PWAT values of 1.25-2 inches in place across the area. There's some potential for training with the line of stronger storms moving into the area this morning and localized flooding will be possible for the first several hours of the forecast period. At the very least, this early morning convection will serve as yet another primer for additional heavy rainfall in thunderstorms later today into tonight. There are still concerns for backbuilding and/or training late today as storm motion becomes more parallel to the frontal boundary to the north. Widespread rainfall totals between this morning and Thursday will be between 1-2 inches (generally along and north of US Route 30), although locally higher amounts of at least 2-4 inches are possible, especially across Northwest Ohio where the Flood Watch is in effect. Flooding concerns are highest for the more responsive/flashy waterways and typical poor drainage/urban areas. Outside of Northwest Ohio, the location of the highest QPF values and the resulting highest flooding risk remain uncertain given relatively low confidence in the exact placement of thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3... Persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures through Saturday. Instead of normal lower 60s for highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in areas that experience any clearing today. Cooler temperatures will likely materialize in the event of persistent cloud cover and precipitation. It will also be quite muggy thanks to dew points in the lower 60s. Temperatures will temporarily moderate to below normal values in the 50s Sunday and Monday, but guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week. The growing season has officially started for Ohio counties and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed as temperatures tank into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s on Sunday night. Additional headlines may be needed across Northeast Ohio on Monday night. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, SW'erly to W'erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region as a stronger disturbance moves E'ward and nears Lake Michigan and vicinity by 18Z/Thurs. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge. Our regional surface winds should trend S'erly to SW'erly around 10 to 15 knots through the TAF period. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially before 23Z/Wed and after 14Z/Thurs. Scattered to widespread low clouds are expected through the TAF period and any resulting ceilings should be in the 2kft to 6kft AGL range. As of 17:30Z/Wed, lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms had developed just west of our region in northern IN and far-NW OH. These showers/storms are expected to persist generally E'ward through our region through ~02Z/Thurs and produce the following: brief MVFR to IFR; brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 to 55 knots. Some storms may also produce damaging hail. Behind these initial showers/storms, additional isolated showers and storms with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible the rest of this evening into Tuesday morning amidst low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, but confidence remains very low that this additional convection will occur. After ~14Z/Thurs, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may outpace the aforementioned stronger disturbance aloft and impact locations as far east as roughly the latitude of KCLE by 18Z/Thurs. These storms should produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief MVFR to LIFR. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and again on Saturday. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...10  834 FXUS66 KPDT 151747 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1047 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow will persist through Thursday morning - Breezy conditions in the lower elevations through Thursday - Near to below freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lower elevations && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: Satellite and regional radar imagery show a cold front slowly pushing southeast across the PacNW this early morning, with snow showers along the Cascade crest and across the Blue mountains. The cold front has mostly stalled along the Cascade crest this morning, which has resulted in moderate snow showers impacting the Cascade passes. The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade crest later this morning and continue to push southeast across the forecast area through this evening, while a closed low is expected to arrive to the region by this afternoon. The best chances for precipitation in the lower elevations will be associated with the frontal passage today, with many locations only seeing rain throughout the day. However, snow levels plummeting to around 2kft behind the frontal boundary and anticipated post-frontal showers will bring chances (30-40%) of light snow to portions of central OR this evening. By tonight, the upper low will move over the forecast area, cutting off precip chances in the lower elevations. AS for the mountains, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will continue to develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues through this evening, with snow tapering off late tonight into Thursday morning. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through tonight and early Thursday morning in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (85-90%) in snow accumulations totaling between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected to occur with the cold front passage this morning, becoming light to locally moderate through the remainder of today. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through Thursday as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph today as the cold front boundary moves through the region. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 80-90% chance of morning lows below freezing both days; the northern Blue mountain foothills of OR are also a concern where there is a 60-80% chance of below freezing lows, especially in areas prone to cold-pooling. Freeze warnings have been issued in these areas for Thursday morning, and will likely need to be reissued for Friday morning. Friday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 75-90%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern Sunday into early next week. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances across the PacNW, but confidence is low (15-25%) in timing, intensity, and p-type. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... A cold front is moving across the area today, which will create gusty west wind and IFR ceilings in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, most notably at ALW and PDT early in the TAF period. Periods of light to moderate rain will obstruct visibility as low as 2 to 3SM in the vicinity of any of these aforementioned terminals and to around 3-5sm at BDN and RDM. Momentum behind the frontal boundary will maintain gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots into the evening hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 51 31 53 32 / 90 30 10 0 ALW 51 34 54 36 / 100 50 30 0 PSC 58 34 61 34 / 70 20 0 0 YKM 54 30 59 31 / 30 10 0 0 HRI 56 32 59 34 / 70 20 0 0 ELN 47 29 51 30 / 30 10 0 0 RDM 49 22 48 21 / 80 40 10 0 LGD 49 28 46 29 / 100 70 40 10 GCD 49 25 45 25 / 100 70 40 0 DLS 53 35 56 35 / 90 40 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...71  650 FXUS65 KTFX 151748 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1148 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions develop today in advance of a cold front, particularly over Southwestern Montana. - Widely scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder may accompany the front late this afternoon. - The cold front brings widespread snowfall to all elevations tonight into Thursday, though accumulating snow impacts will mostly be over and near areas of higher terrain. - Temperatures fall well below the seasonal average Thursday and Friday, with another round of scattered light snows on Friday. - A building upper level ridge of high pressure will bring a return to milder and dry conditions before unsettled conditions return next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will be on the western edge of an upper level ridge today, resulting in southerly flow aloft. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area, as well as another day of windy conditions in Southwestern Montana. Instability will also increase, resulting in the potential for isolated locations to hear a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. The Rocky Mountain Front will see snowfall throughout the day, with heavier amounts in the higher elevations. As the ridge continues to move east, an upper level trough will begin to move in from the west coast, bringing an increase in atmospheric moisture. This evening into tonight a cold front will push down from the north, lowering temperatures. The cooler temperatures combined with increased moisture will bring snow showers along the I-90 Corridor late this afternoon into the early evening. North-central and Central Montana will begin to see rain showers in the evening, transitioning to more widespread snow during the overnight hours. Snowy/slushy roads will be most prevalent Thursday morning. Well-below seasonal average temperatures will be seen across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Thursday, in thanks to the upper-level trough deepening over the Great Basin and the cold front. On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds over southwest MT today... A 30 to 50 kt H700 southwesterly jet will develop over southwest MT in advance of the approaching trough and cold front. Stronger end surface winds will be most pronounced over the narrow south to north oriented valleys and the exposed mountain peaks south of the I90 corridor. Criteria winds/gusts (40 mph/58 mph) look to be most widespread in the late afternoon and early evening hours when diurnal mixing, widely scattered convective showers, and the cold front itself will all promote at least a brief period of surface momentum transfer. Climatological anomaly indices continue to highlight this event with the ECMWF EFI sustained wind speed still generally ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 for the aforementioned locations, while gusts remain slightly higher at 0.7 to nearly 0.9. With this in mind the high wind watch for the Madison Valley and Beaverhead/W Madison lower elevations will be upgraded to a warning. The only change to the timing will be to extend it into the evening to cover the frontal passage and associated convection/momentum transfer. Widespread snow tonight into Thursday... Light snow will continue to increase today along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front as moisture increases H500 heights fall. Once the cold front clears the region this evening, the cold core aloft will be sufficient to support a period of widespread snow at all elevations tonight into Thursday. Impactful accumulations will generally be confined to areas over and near higher terrain, including the Rocky Mountain Front, the central island ranges, and the Madison/Gallatin mountains. Winter weather advisories were added to include most mountain areas. The winter storm watch continues for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and now runs through midnight Friday rather than the previous 6 am Friday morning expiration time. The cold north/northwesterly upslope flow over the Gallatin Valley is favorable for a at least a period of heavier snow, especially for the south and eastern portions of the valley. Given it's a weekday and the aforementioned portions of the valley currently have over 50% chance for 6 inches of snow, a winter storm watch was posted here. The most impactful period looks to occur late tonight through Thursday morning when precipitation will be heaviest and diurnal heating will be weakest. Impacts may include difficult travel due to slushy/snowy roads and reduced visibility, cold wet outback conditions, and even isolated power outages or tree damage. Snow begins to slowly diminish Thursday afternoon, but another shortwave looks to pass through and bring another round of light snow Thursday night into Friday. It's still uncertain on how widespread and impactful this will be, but the situation will continue to be monitored going forward. - RCG && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period A cold front is moving through North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening. This will change the wind direction at all terminals to more northerly and bring rain and snow to all TAF sites during this TAF Period. At the KBZN and KEKS terminals between 15/21Z and 16/06Z there is a a 15 - 20% chance for lightning. At the KWYS terminal between 16/03Z and 16/08Z there is a 15 - 20% chance for lightning. At the KHLN, KGTF, and KLWT terminals between 15/21Z and 16/03Z there is a 10 - 20% chance for lightning. During the duration of this TAF period at most of the terminals there is 30% chance or greater for rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow showers. During the majority of this TAF period there will be mountain obscuration across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Between 15/22Z and 16/06Z there will be isolated instances of mountain wave turbulence and low- level wind shear across Southwestern Montana. Across southwestern Montana this afternoon there is a low chance that a rain shower could mix down strong wind gusts in excess of 40kts. -IG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 26 37 22 / 50 80 50 30 CTB 53 19 34 17 / 20 40 40 20 HLN 58 28 40 25 / 70 90 60 30 BZN 59 25 39 19 / 60 90 80 40 WYS 45 26 35 12 / 90 100 100 70 DLN 57 25 38 19 / 50 90 80 20 HVR 62 24 35 17 / 40 80 30 20 LWT 58 26 36 18 / 50 80 50 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Thursday evening for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Madison River Valley. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for Gallatin Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  080 FXUS61 KBGM 151749 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. Still anticipating an area of thunderstorms to move through this evening and again Thursday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this evening and into the early overnight hours. Damaging winds and locally heavy rain are the main threats. 2) Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain are the primary threats. 3) A dramatic pattern shift will begin Sunday with a round of showers and storms followed by falling temperatures Sunday night and Monday, along with light snow showers and gusty northwest winds early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The near term concerns are focused around the threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms later today. The environment continues to destabilize this afternoon with surface temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, as of 1 PM, but will jump into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the next couple hours. Surface dew points in the lower 60s will contribute to SB CAPE values ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg, along with steepening low level lapse rates. The combination of a plume of deep available moisture, 25 to 35 kt of deep shear and mid level lapse rates around 6.7 degC/km should provide enough ingredients for deep convection and strong to possibly severe storms. Convective initiation could end up being the challenge. There really isn't any well-defined feature to provide the support for strong ascent, unless the remnants of a propagating, relatively small MCS/MCV coming out of the southern Great Lakes make it to the western NY/PA border. This potential feature could provide the support for the storms to persistent farther to the east and also maintain intensity. The primary threats within any of these storms will be damaging wind gusts between the hours of 6 PM and 12 AM. However, given the amount of deep layer moisture and PWs around 1.5 inches, and if heavy rain falls over the same area or on locations with moist antecedent surface conditions, the threat for localized flash flooding could be enhanced. The convection is expected to diminish in intensity and coverage after 1 AM Thu with fog likely late tonight and early Thu morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... The potential for another round of thunderstorms exists late in the day Thursday as well. An east-west oriented boundary across the region will lift to the north during the morning and afternoon Thursday and allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s once again. Plenty of low level moisture and increasing instability will create favorable conditions for strong to possibly severe convection later in the afternoon Thursday, and into the evening hours. An upper short wave to the west will help provide the necessary forcing for large scale ascent, and when combined with building instability should be sufficient for scattered areas of strong to possibly severe storms. The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook is highlighting a good portion of central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. The primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds, but a secondary threat of a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the amount of shear with backed surface winds along the boundary across central NY. The threat for heavy rain leading to excessive runoff and flash flooding cannot be overlooked either. With multiple previous days of rain and wet surface conditions, any heavy rain exceeding approximately 1.5 inches in an hour could potentially cause issues. Again, after a loss of heating Thursday evening, most of the intense convection should diminish and end close to/around midnight. KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence continues to increase in the onset of a relatively cold air mass early next week. On Saturday a deepening trough over the central US will cause a downstream ridge to amplify over the Northeast and allow for a brief warm up into the low to mid 70s. The leading edge of this cold air mass will push in from the west/sw in the form of showers and thunderstorms Sat night and early Sunday. Brief heavy rain will be followed by falling temperatures Sunday during the afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday midday will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, but drop into the mid to upper 20s Sunday night. Winds will start to really increase out of the northwest Sunday night and continue through the day Monday and Mon night. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s...and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph will make it feel even colder at times. Drier air settles in Mon night but with mid to upper 20s once again. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected for most of this afternoon. However, another batch of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area this evening, which will likely result in occasional restrictions. These restrictions will be mainly MVFR, but brief IFR restrictions cannot be completely ruled out. Following these showers and thunderstorms, lingering low ceilings and patchy fog/mist will likely keep restrictions around at least until 06Z, before a gradual return to VFR. Outlook: Thursday afternoon through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers. Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT AVIATION...BJG  401 FXUS66 KOTX 151751 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1051 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Region is the on the backside of the exiting front. Trailing showers and MVFR conditions are currently impacting KGEG- KSFF- KCOE- KPUW- KLWS. Drier air is filtering into the region bringing VFR conditions to KEAT-KMWH. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. Overnight stratus will develop over Eastern WA and North ID possibly bringing another round of MVFR ceilings and increased precip chances for Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 30 54 32 / 90 20 30 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 29 47 29 52 30 / 100 30 50 10 0 0 Pullman 44 28 45 29 51 32 / 100 30 40 10 0 0 Lewiston 51 33 50 34 56 33 / 100 30 30 0 0 0 Colville 52 27 53 26 57 28 / 70 50 30 0 0 0 Sandpoint 46 29 45 28 50 29 / 100 60 70 20 20 0 Kellogg 43 27 41 28 47 29 / 100 50 80 30 30 0 Moses Lake 55 28 58 31 61 34 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 32 55 35 59 40 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  066 FXUS64 KMAF 151753 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface observations show the dryline is near the Midland/Odessa area this afternoon and may push a bit further east before convection begins along it in the next few hours. Isolated storms will be seen across the eastern most counties of the CWA. This activity will move east and decay around or just after sunset this evening. A few storms may be severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Dry air and mainly clear skies behind the retreating dryline tonight will allow areas west of Midland to cool efficiently with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s. Thursday will be somewhat of a repeat to today, but with the dryline moving even further east, rain chances take a drop down even for the eastern reaches of the area. Highs end up above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday also sees dryline action across the eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon/late evening, but like Thursday, it should be fairly limited in coverage. Another upper low also approaches on Friday and will increase winds across southeast New Mexico and into portions of West Texas. Breezy conditions will persist for the day before decreasing that evening. A cold front moves through the area early Saturday morning and keep temperatures below normal for both Saturday and Sunday with many areas in the 60s and 70s. By Sunday, an upper level disturbance looks to cross the region and long range guidance is bringing in broad, but low (10-30%) rain chances. Confidence remains low on just how much rain areas will get. Temperatures gradually increase back to normal (upper 70s to low 80s) on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR continues at all sites. Gusts between 20-25kts may occasionally be seen during the day and decay after sunset tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is still in place for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels combine with RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 56 89 64 91 / 0 10 20 0 Carlsbad 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 88 66 92 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 86 55 86 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 46 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0 Odessa 56 87 64 89 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 50 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  431 FXUS64 KMOB 151753 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Once again fog has developed across the area and current satellite imagery and observations are showing widespread dense fog starting along the I-10 corridor and rapidly spreading inland. Some high clouds will likely limit how far north the fog will make it but most of the are will likely deal with dense fog this morning. Along with the fog, the presence of several wildfires across southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama could result in localized areas of super fog. Super fog is where smoke particles mix with dense fog resulting in an area of incredibly dense fog. Visibilities in these areas could drop to a few hundred feet at best resulting in highly treacherous driving conditions. Use extreme caution around any area that you knew there was smoke. A dense fog advisory is now in effect until 9 am for most of the area. Fog should slowly mix out after 9 am. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 An upper trof advances across the Plains and much of the eastern states through Thursday night before exiting off into the western Atlantic on Friday. An upper ridge spanning much of the Gulf and the extreme southeastern states becomes oriented over the eastern Gulf up to near the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday, then retreats to the Gulf on Thursday. The upper ridge builds back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western CONUS. This next upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, and an associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the passage of the front, a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast will promote a warm southerly surface flow over the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with upper ridge look to keep deep layer moisture sufficiently limited to continue with a dry forecast through Saturday. As the front moves through, have gone with slight chance to chance pops along and west of I-65 Saturday night with slight chance pops for Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Monday into Tuesday. There is the potential for dense fog development overnight which will be monitored. Fog development is also possible again Wednesday night and Thursday night. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, and in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and mostly in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s trend to the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday night and Friday night, then turn cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer through Tuesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening as winds turn southeasterly to southerly. Winds will become calm this evening with fog expected again overnight. LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop across much of the area once again after midnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. BB-8 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Ongoing drought conditions pose the potential to exacerbate wildfire activity for the next 7 days. While afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels through Sunday, drier air flows into the area on Monday which looks to result in relative humidity values dropping to 20-25% mostly over interior areas. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 78 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 65 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 86 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  533 FXUS65 KBOI 151755 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1155 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight and Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Friday and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 The next strong upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska and surface cold front were approaching our area this morning with another round of moderate to heavy rain and snow today and tonight. At 2 AM MDT the eastward-moving cold front was already onshore in western WA and OR, extending out into the Pacific along 42N. The supporting upper low was near 50/130 near the BC coast and moving southeastward. Radar was already showing areas of light rain and snow in eastern OR and western- most Idaho but little was reaching the ground. But pcpn will increase around sunrise and continue through the day and this evening. This system is colder than the previous one and will lower the snow level to valley floors late tonight and early Thursday morning, but by then most of the pcpn will be ending. The surface cold front is slated to pass through eastern OR this afternoon and western Idaho this evening. Ahead of the front, heaviest pcpn will fall in the Boise Mountains and west Central Idaho Mountains with snow level near 6000 feet, with rain heavy enough to loosen rocks and mud on steep slopes, so travelers should avoid the Banks-Lowman road and similar roads until rain changes to snow this evening. Total pcpn today through Thursday should be 0.75 to 1.25 inch in our northern mountains, and generally 0.25 to 0.75 inch elsewhere, except 0.15 to 0.25 inch in rain-shadowed southern areas. Total snowfall will be 8 to 15 inches above 6000 feet late today through tonight but only 1-3 inches near 5000 feet, including McCall/ID. Pre-frontal southwest to west winds will increase to advisory speeds in the southwest Idaho Highlands, southern Twin Falls County, and in southern Malheur and Harney Counties. A Wind Advisory has been posted for those areas this afternoon and early evening. The frontal passage itself will be marked by a short period of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. After that the snow level will lower rapidly and rain will change to snow, with up to an inch accumulation overnight in the Magic Valley but little or none in the Treasure Valley. Thursday will be windy and cold with lingering snow showers as the upper low moves through, then clearing and quite cold Thursday night. A Freeze Watch has been posted for the Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley agricultural valleys for Friday morning and again Saturday morning, but Friday looks like the colder day. Low temperatures Friday will dip as low as 24 degrees in the western Magic Valley which would be a hard freeze, with 27 to 30 degrees in the Treasure Valley, again cold enough to damage young plants unless they are protected. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A ridge building in behind the system in the short-term period will allow for dry and milder conditions on Saturday, with temperatures near normal. Saturday morning will be the last morning (in this forecast period at least) with temperatures near or below freezing across the area. Temperatures come Sunday will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. This next week, guidance continues to resolve a low digging down from the Gulf Alaska and closing off from the main jet stream, but timing continues to be tricky. Over the past few runs, ensemble guidance has continually slowed the system, delaying its arrival into our area. With southerly flow ahead of this low, a slight warming trend would be able to sustain itself into early next week with a slower arrival. The current forecast carries slight precipitation chances come Monday, increasing to 20-40 percent area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday (where the consensus is starting to lean on the low's arrival). Temperatures should be able to maintain the slight warming trend and remain above normal through Tuesday in the southerly flow, before cooling to near normal behind the system. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1154 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Low VFR/MVFR ceilings in rain and IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Snow levels 5-7kft MSL. A cold front will bring sharp wind shifts and intensify precip after 20Z, with MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder with small hail/graupel along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Scattered light snow showers expected Thursday morning through afternoon. Surface winds: SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-35 kt, then W- NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 40 kt this afternoon with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Showers continuing with periods of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibility this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive this afternoon around 22Z. The front will bring a sharp NW wind shift, heavier precip, temporary MVFR/IFR, and potential for graupel/lightning. Conditions returning to VFR following the front. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt this morning, then NW 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt following frontal passage this afternoon/evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ064. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  022 FXUS61 KRNK 151755 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 155 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation Update. Very little else has changed, maybe a little uptick in probability of measurable rainfall Thursday night in the mountains, but still not much. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. 2. Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. 3. Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. High pressure over the southeast U.S. will start to drop southeast Thursday as an upper trough shifts into the lower Great Lakes. Even with this shift, temps will be warmer than normal and potentially close to record highs. Looking to stay above normal despite this shortwave moving across as the surface high stays over the southeast and keeps the flow out of the west/southwest into Saturday. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. With the shortwave Thu night into Friday appears models keep the probability of measurable rainfall greatest along and west of the Appalachian Divide, so areas east of the Alleghanys are likely to see light showers/sprinkles and any amount of rain will be less than a tenth of an inch at best. The front Sat night into Sunday will be more robust but even that will be stretched out in more a linear fashion and quick moving which will limit rainfall amounts to under a tenth of an inch for most, possibly up to a quarter inch in WV and far SW VA if any convection happens. Key Message 3: Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. Greater relief from the heat looks to come after the frontal passage, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The mountains, especially in southeast WV, will see low temperatures in the 30s once again. Probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees F or less between 35% to 45% for the southeast WV mountains Monday and Tuesday mornings. By midweek high pressure moves offshore with the flow turning more southwest again providing warmer than normal temperatures. Looking further out, teleconnection forecasts suggest pattern flip by the end of the month, with potential for much needed rainfall to close out April. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night- Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains before improving. The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through with a better chance of showers and potential for sub- VFR cigs/vbsy, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. WInds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Some rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next couple of days: Wednesday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH/WP AVIATION...SH/WP FIRE WEATHER...AS/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH  714 FXUS64 KBMX 151755 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to recent dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama though light rain amounts are forecast Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Broad southwest flow associated with an eastward-moving trough is shown to bring a smaller, low-amplitude shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. Ensemble data suggests that the bulk of showers/storms left over from today/tonight's southern Plains activity, and any renewed activity on Thursday, will be to our northwest/north; however, some activity may manage to affect a few locations northwest of the 59 corridor. For a majority of Central Alabama, it'll be another seasonably warm and dry day. A larger, and more powerful, trough will sweep across the U.S. this weekend, sending a front across Alabama Saturday night. Based on model trends, this system has a better potential to bring some rain to a bit more of the state, favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. This certainly won't be a drought-busting rain, though. Sunday's highs will be near 15 degrees cooler and there is at least a low chance for some communities to reach the upper 30s Monday morning north of a Birmingham latitude. At this time, the wind and humidity forecast Monday morning is not supportive of frost. Temperatures then steadily warm through the rest of the week. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Updated at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for Central Alabama terminals over the next 24 hours. The one aside is the low potential for MVFR advection fog to make its way to MGM, from southern Alabama, early Thursday morning; this is not formally included at this time. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions shall persist over the next several days due to drought conditions, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. MinRHs through Saturday are forecast to be in the 30 percent range though some locations may slip into the upper 20s. Daytime winds will sway from south to southwest near 5-10 mph with infrequent gusts as high as 15-20 mph, light at night. A front comes Saturday night with showers favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. At this time, locations near and north of the 20 corridor stand the best chance for measurable rain, averaging less than 0.50 inch. Behind the front, MinRHs on Sunday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts near 20 mph. Winds become lighter from the northeast on Monday and southeast on Tuesday, between 5-10 mph, though MinRHs should be even lower, reaching the lower 20s for many locations. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 55 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 85 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 86 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 87 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 86 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite  580 FXUS64 KSHV 151755 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday into Thursday. - A strong cold front will traverse the region on Saturday, delivering some widespread rainfall and some cooler temps. - Cooler and drier air will settle into the region by Sunday, followed by a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our region remains positioned under a moist southerly flow as a surface ridge remains in place over the Gulf. This will maintain a steady stream of humidity into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, a series of upper-level disturbances will interact with this moisture and trigger a few rounds of convection. That being said, short range models have trended a little lower than previous models so I think the NBM could be too excited in regards to the coverage for today. The main area of concern for today will be for areas north of I-20 in east Texas, and then areas along and north of the I-30 corridor. The greatest risk for strong to severe storms today will be across portions of far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and some western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of producing mainly gusty winds and some hail, but we can't rule out the potential for a tornado or two either. Probably the more impactful event will come on Saturday as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast across the region. While there remains some differing opinions on timing, it looks like the bulk of the storms will come Saturday afternoon. This will have the potential to provide more widespread rainfall to the region, along with the potential for some strong storms, something we will continue to monitor. Dry air will follow behind the passing cold front, in addition to ushering in some slightly below normal temperatures for Sunday and into the start of next week before returning to more seasonable levels on Tuesday. /33/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 15/18z TAF period...VFR skies have return across the region, but under mostly cloudy skies. The clouds will scattered out more during the afternoon hours today, with exceptions possibly at KTXK/KTYR/KGGG/KLFK. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at KTXK/KELD overnight, followed by the return of MVFR cigs across the region by daybreak. These MVFR cigs should hold on through the remainder of the period. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 87 67 88 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 65 89 66 90 / 10 20 0 0 DEQ 61 82 62 85 / 70 20 0 10 TXK 67 86 67 88 / 60 20 10 0 ELD 63 86 64 89 / 30 30 10 0 TYR 67 85 67 86 / 50 10 0 0 GGG 66 86 66 87 / 40 10 0 0 LFK 67 87 66 88 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...15  191 FXUS64 KTSA 151755 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storm chances continue through late evening Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday. - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early afternoon Wednesday, a moisture plume with precipitable water values locally in excess of 1.5 inches remained common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas east of a surface boundary positioned from west Texas through western Oklahoma and across central Kansas. Within this plume, both surface and elevated instability had become re-established across the region with the instability maximized along the boundary and eastward over central and northeast Oklahoma. Scattered convection was ongoing over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas within a southern portion of a 30-35KT low level jet holding over the CWA. A limited severe potential exists with this activity, though deep layer shear vectors were not quite as strong as they are back to the west. Small hail and gusty winds are probable with the stronger storms. This activity should move out of northwest Arkansas through the early afternoon hours. Additional storm development is expected over the CWA through the afternoon hours both initiating near the surface boundary and also out ahead of it. Deep layer shear is progged to increase from west to east as the boundary pushes eastward toward the CWA from a shortwave moving east northeast across the Plains. The combination of increasing shear, steep mid level lapse rates, the amount of instability over the CWA and dewpoints running in the mid/upper 60s will quickly aid in the increase of severe probabilities. At the onset, with more discrete storm development, the potential for all modes of severe weather exist this afternoon. With shear values more parallel to the boundary, storm development becoming broken lines and clusters could transition severe probs to more of a damaging wind threat this evening into tonight. Also, a heavy rain threat exists with the potential for localized flood concerns through tonight. At the same time, a tornado threat remains across the CWA with the greater potential looking to become QLCS along the leading edge of the broken line segments this evening into the early overnight hours. This is in response, to 0-1km storm relative helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 and low level shear values becoming more oriented to the south southeast forecast this evening. Severe potentials begin to weaken after 06z with much of the precip exiting southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Thursday morning. The boundary itself is expected to remain just west of the CWA tonight, which will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for lows Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the day Thursday, before the mid/upper level trof axis departs to the east, a slight chance of showers and storms remains for parts of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any lingering precip development Thursday afternoon could tap into shear/instability holding east of the surface boundary, and carry a limited severe potential. To the west of any precip development, continued southerly low level flow and more scattered cloud cover will help afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s, while upper 70s/near 80 deg are forecast for northwest Arkansas. Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is progged to move through the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. This will push the cold front back toward the CWA during the day Friday, and then through the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Moisture and instability continues to be common over the region ahead of the front and will allow for another round of storm development, especially Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with the front. Again, severe potentials exist along and ahead of the front with the greater potential over northeast Oklahoma as the front enters this area late afternoon through evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms taper off and exit during the morning hours as the front clears the CWA to the southeast. In the wake of the departing front and while the mid/upper level trof axis moves over the region, northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier airmass into the region is forecast. High temperatures in the 60s are forecast Saturday, with lows Saturday night falling into the upper 30s and 40s as cloud cover tries to clear. Temperatures more closer to seasonal average are forecast Sunday into early next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. There are some indications of a wave moving over top the ridge during the middle part of next week which could return the potential for showers/storms. Uncertainty exists this far out and for now will carry a slight chance of precip. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR cigs are being slow to lift across the region, but should lift across NE OK sites shortly, lasting into mid afternoon across NW AR sites. THe main impact through the period will be thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop early this afternoon and move into NE OK during the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Better coverage is expected across NE OK this afternoon with lesser chances across NW AR and SE OK sites where only Prob30s are mentioned. Another wave of storms will likely develop and move into Se OK and NW AR later this evening which will provide the best chances for thunderstorm impacts for Nw AR and Se OK sites. MVFR cigs will also likely fill back in early tomorrow morning with some low probability for IFR cigs and fog to develop across NE OK around that time as well. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 85 67 83 / 80 10 10 50 FSM 64 79 67 86 / 90 20 10 10 MLC 65 84 67 82 / 80 10 10 10 BVO 57 85 64 83 / 60 10 0 60 FYV 61 78 64 84 / 90 20 10 20 BYV 61 77 64 83 / 90 20 10 20 MKO 62 81 66 83 / 80 10 10 20 MIO 61 79 65 80 / 80 10 0 60 F10 62 84 67 83 / 80 10 10 20 HHW 64 83 65 82 / 80 20 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04  236 FXUS65 KBOU 151756 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1156 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today with mild temperatures. - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Satellite and RAP analysis products show today's shortwave continuing to push eastward, with only a few lingering showers across the plains left on radar. Wednesday should be warmer and drier across the forecast area as weak zonal flow develops behind the departing trough. Mid-level temperatures should warm several degC and forecast highs return to the 60s across most of the plains. A little bit of moisture is expected to linger across the high country leading to a bit more cloud cover there, with mostly sunny skies across the plains. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the work week this week, with southwesterly flow aloft increasing ahead of our next (stronger) trough axis. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 70s across most of the plains... and combined with low relative humidity values... another day of widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible. See the Fire Wx section below for additional details. The focus of the forecast period continues to be Thursday night through Friday night, as a strong trough axis swings across the region. Tonight's guidance hasn't changed significantly with the synoptic scale details of this event, with the trough axis quickly pushing across the state during the day Friday. A rather strong cold front looks like it will push into the plains late Thursday night or sometime Friday morning, with 700mb temperatures dropping to as cold as -8 to -11C by Friday afternoon. While the trough is rather quick to move across the region, there would still be a narrow period (<12 hours) of favorable upslope and QG ascent to work with during the day Friday. Unsurprisingly, ensemble guidance strongly favors a modest (around 0.15-0.4") QPF forecast which would lead to generally light snow amounts across most of the Front Range and I-25 corridor. We'll continue to watch trends closely here as we get into the range of the HRRR/RRFS and other CAMs. A cold overnight is likely on Friday night with a hard freeze expected across most of the lower elevations. We may be slow to warm on Saturday, but there's good agreement in a broad ridge developing across the western CONUS by later in the weekend or early next week. Highs should climb to above normal values by Sunday and continue through early/mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/... Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The inversion present this morning has fully mixed out. We expect W to NW winds this afternoon with some gusts around 15 to 20 kts possible. Slightly stronger gusts (up to 25-30 kts) could be possible at KBJC until around 20z due to downslope enhancement that has been occurring since this morning. In the last hour or two, obs have shown some SW winds present at/near KDEN likely due to terrain-induced eddies. There is still a low possibility (around 20%) that some of these SW winds could push through KDEN throughout the early afternoon. Tonight, winds become VRB around 02z before turning to drainage around 04z to 07z. Winds will likely stay under 10 kts overnight and into tomorrow morning. There will be a SCT mid to high level cloud deck overnight. No ceilings issues are expected. For tomorrow, we expect W to WNW winds once again with some stronger gusts possible. For now, we have gone with gusts around 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Dry, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to develop on Thursday ahead of Friday's storm system... leading to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area. Good agreement across Tuesday afternoon's guidance and from most of the available 00z guidance tonight that we'll see humidity drop to critical thresholds across most of the lower elevations, with some models advertising single digit RH values Thursday afternoon. The bigger question is how much wind will develop across the lower elevations Thursday afternoon. The NBM appears to be far too aggressive with gusts, and even after adjusting down our forecast wind grids are about 5-10 mph stronger than some higher resolution guidance. With mid-level (700mb) flow around 20-25kt, it seems reasonable to expect at least a few hours of >25 mph gusts. Given that the flow is predominantly SW/WSW, much of the I-25/I-76 corridors may be partially sheltered. While many locations in the plains may see critical fire weather conditions, GEFS Hot Dry Windy Index plumes suggest higher confidence of approaching/exceeding the 90th percentile of the HDWI across South Park into Lincoln county, with far more spread along and north of I-70/I-76. For those reasons, we've opted for a relatively small Fire Weather Watch from South Park into the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains for Thursday, though it's possible the day shift will need to make additional refinements after evaluating the full suite of Wednesday's 12z guidance. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ214-216-241-245>247-249. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...MV FIRE WEATHER...Hiris  069 FXUS65 KMSO 151757 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1157 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A strong cold front sweeps through this afternoon and evening, bringing rapidly plunging snow levels and a burst of heavy precipitation. - Sudden, intense snow squalls are a significant threat for southwest Montana this evening, which could rapidly drop visibility and create hazardous travel conditions. - Lingering snow showers on Thursday and Friday will give way to a brief, pleasant warm-up this weekend. A plume of Pacific moisture will continue to fuel precipitation over north-central Idaho and northwest Montana this afternoon. The main event, a robust cold front, will sweep from west to east across the region late this afternoon and through the evening. As this front passes, expect a sharp drop in temperatures and an intense burst of precipitation. Snow levels will rapidly crash from around 4,000-6,000 feet all the way to the valley floors. The most critical impact tonight will be the potential for sudden snow squalls, particularly across southwest Montana. These fast- moving bands of intense snow and wind can cause near-zero visibility and instantly coat roads in ice and slush. If you are traveling this evening, especially over mountain passes or along the I-90 corridor in southwest Montana, be prepared for rapidly deteriorating and hazardous conditions. Behind the front, a cooler and unsettled pattern takes hold. Expect snow showers to persist across the Northern Rockies through at least Thursday. There is a renewed chance that a secondary push of cold air (a backdoor front) moving into northwest Montana Thursday morning could bring 1 to 3 inches of snow to lower- elevation spots like the Flathead Valley. High- resolution models suggest that the front will move through the rest of the region during Thursday afternoon and evening with winter-like travel conditions possible again over MacDonald and Homestake Passes. Showers will continue into Friday but will gradually taper off by Friday evening as the main storm system exits to our east. We will see a break in the active weather this weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region, clearing the skies and bringing a return to warmer, drier, and more seasonable conditions. Long-range models suggest another weather disturbance will arrive early next week, bringing a return to cooler and wetter conditions. && .AVIATION...Moisture will continue streaming into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, bringing periods of precipitation and lowering ceilings. Breezy southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts of 20-30 kts at terminal sites. This strong cold front is timed to reach KMSO by 15/2300Z, and KBTM by 16/0200Z. Expect a window of heavy precipitation and a sharp shift to northwest winds gusting 30-40 kts during the frontal passage. Snow levels ahead of the front will range from 4,000 feet in northwest Montana to 6,000 feet near Lemhi County. Behind the front, snow levels will crash to all valley floors. Snow showers and mountain obscurations will continue through Thursday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$  427 FXUS64 KAMA 151758 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1258 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon depending on the location and progression of a dryline. -Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As of this writing a mid to upper level trough with a positive tilt is moving through the central to southern Great Plains. Some dry air entrainment behind is it expected to clear out the cloud coverage and Amarillo is already seeing nice clear blue skies. A few high clouds continue to linger in the far eastern Panhandles as the stream of moisture moves off to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Today, this trough is brining some subtlety cooler air to the western combined Panhandles where highs are only expected to reach the 70s, 80s in the east. Also, westerly downsloping winds are expected to bring in dry surface air dropping RH values to the 8-15% range this afternoon. Overnight, RH values are expected to only recover to 25 to 40 percent. This will not help with fire weather conditions going into tomorrow. As this trough exits the area tonight, upper level ridging builds over the FA bringing widespread temperatures in the 80s. Tds in the lower teens stick around for tomorrow and almost the entire FA is expected to see RH values quickly drop into the 5 to 10 percent range. A surface trough is progged to strengthen over the area not only aiding in the dry air, but aiding in some breezy gradient driven winds as well. As a result, almost all of the combined Panhandles are expected to see critical fire weather conditions. Tomorrow night, a dryline is progged to retreat back into the Panhandles, dividing the northwest and southeast half of the FA. As such, RH recoveries will vary from the northwest to southeast going into Friday. RH values Friday morning may vary well be in the 90-100 percent range, around 50 percent along a line from Vega to Beaver, with RH values staying low (24-40%) to the northwest. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level system is progged to approach the combined Panhandles Friday afternoon bringing with it dry air and gusty winds leading to critical fire weather conditions. Later, an associated cold front is progged to move into the area from the north in the late afternoon/ evening. This front is expected to bring strong to potentially high (58+ mph) winds. For now have not gone too much higher with the winds in the forecast, but there is still room for winds speeds to increase with subsequent forecast packages. Cooler temperatures are indeed expected with this frontal system. H85 temperatures are expected to drop into the 0 to 2 degree C range overnight into Saturday morning. This is leading to a concern of the northwest combined Panhandles potentially see Sat morning lows in the 28 to 32 degree range. Winds are expected to stay out of the north Sat with highs only expected to reach the 60s (near normal for this time of year). For Sunday, winds are progged to return to the southwest and temperatures are expected to rebound into the 70s for afternoon. Elevated to spotty critical fire weather conditions may return in the northwestern FA as winds ramp up to the 15 to 20 mph range out of the southwest. Temperatures are expected to stay somewhat subdued on Monday, with a much warmer afternoon expected Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s. Outside of maybe some pop-up thunderstorms in the southeast && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with relatively light winds out of the W to SW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Extrememely dry conditions are expected Thu with RH values potentially getting down to 5 percent. Twenty-foot winds are expected be out of the southwest around 15 to 20 mph with maybe some areas in the northwest panhandles reaching upwards of 25 mph. Even higher winds are expected on Friday as an upper level system approaches. This system will not only bring higher winds for Friday afternoon but also a cold front with a dramatic wind shift to the north later in the evening. Winds are still expected to be strong behind this front as it moves through overnight into Saturday morning. RFTIs in the 5 to 7 range are expected to be isolated to the northwest Panhandles Thursday with more widespread 5 to 7 RFTIs across all of the central to western Panhandles on Friday with potentially some 8s. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03