339 FXUS64 KOUN 151800 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 100 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early this morning, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms are moving across southwestern and central Oklahoma. This activity may produce small hail, brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. A few global models continue develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma before sunrise, while CAMs keep coverage isolated to widely scattered. Ceiling heights across south central and southeastern Oklahoma are roughly 4-6k feet and soundings suggest about 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. For now will side with more isolated to widely scattered coverage through sunrise. Later this afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a near a dryline. The dryline will be located farther east than Tuesday, so perhaps initial storm develop will be along and east of an Enid to Lawton and Seymour, Texas line. It's possible that upscale growth will occur quickly to an MCS or line segments. This would limit the large hail risk to the first few hours of development with an evolution to strong winds, smaller hail, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A trailing shortwave trough is expected to move across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Although a majority of the convection will be confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma by late Wednesday evening, some lingering precipitation is possible. With mainly dry conditions expected on Thursday, focus will turn to fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, and afternoon humidity will fall to around 10 to 15 percent across the western third of the state including the adjacent area of northern Texas. A southwesterly wind will be a little breezy but wind gusts are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense cloud cover producing broken ceilings will keep a few of our terminals in central Oklahoma under periods of MVFR conditions through 00Z. A dryline was advancing across western Oklahoma which could produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon impacting all terminals east of the dryline before retreating westward after sundown. Terminals KWWR & KCSM will remain west of the dryline with no storm activity but have TEMPOS for TSRA across our remaining terminals through 01Z although will keep terminal KDUA through 06Z. Surface winds go light after 00Z although cannot rule out any outflow boundaries from potential storm activity affecting surface winds. A low-level jet will set up tonight generally across southeast Oklahoma which could produce low-level wind shear conditions after 06Z affecting only terminals KDUA and KSPS. Stratus may increase late tonight across southeast to central Oklahoma between 08-14Z with a higher potential for radiational fog development in western Oklahoma closer to the dryline. As a result all terminals east of the retreated dryline (all expect for KWWR) could reduce to MVFR or periods of IFR categories due to potential low ceilings and/or lowered visibilities. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 59 86 65 / 70 30 0 10 Hobart OK 86 53 90 62 / 40 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 91 65 / 60 10 0 10 Gage OK 83 47 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 64 / 60 40 0 0 Durant OK 78 64 86 66 / 80 50 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...68  437 FXUS63 KIWX 151800 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through tonight as additional rainfall may cause renewed flooding in some areas. - A brief break is expected Thursday night into Friday before a stronger front arrives with more showers and thunderstorms. - Overall temperatures will remain above normal, with a dip to near or slightly below normal Sunday behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain will persist into Thursday as the region remains on the warm side of a persistent trough to the west. The discussion will focus mainly through Saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short time. A series of MCV's and other weaker disturbances, remnant outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms into Thursday. Greatest severe threat today appears to exist where it has the past couple of days from IA/IL area southwest into OK and TX, but our area lies in a Slight risk (2 out of 5) for large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover and multiple rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability, but enough shear and CAPE will exist to bring a threat for stg- svr storms. The first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across NW parts of the area. A small area of storms has been intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty winds. This will continue ENE and pose a threat for severe weather. SWOMCD #446 was just sent by SPC discussing the concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. CAMs generally suggest another round towards 00Z and again overnight as the sfc low passes to our NW. Severe threat could return again towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. On the hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected through tonight, opted to expand the Flood Watch to the entire area and expire at 12Z Thu. Do not expect widespread flood issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually cause rising river levels. Showers may linger into the start of Thursday, but model trends seem to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level support is exiting. SPC DY2 reflects this with a Marginal Risk across SE half or so of the area and could see this possibly being trimmed further in future outlooks. In the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we should get a break in precip Thursday night into Friday evening before a stronger trough (entering the Pacific NW) dives into the Plains and eventually makes it to the Great Lakes into Sat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late Fri night into early Sat). This is reflected with the main severe threat Fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on Sat. Time to sort that out. Colder air then arrives behind this front with a brief return to 40s and 50s Sunday then moderation back into the 60s and 60s for the work week. Rain chances appear limited at this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most likely will bring precip chances back. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for both sites mainly through 21Z and again after 02Z tonight. Convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with VFR conditions then expected into Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in thunderstorm outflows. Breezy southwest winds continue on Thursday with gusts around 25 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015- 017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Cobb  927 FXUS63 KILX 151801 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 101 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 60-80% chance of scattered thunderstorms exists throughout the day. This evening, especially after 4 PM and primarily north of Interstate 70, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. - Late Friday evening, areas generally west of Interstate 57 face a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for another round of severe weather. - Significantly cooler weather returns this weekend. There will be a low (20-30%) chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance area-wide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Two primary areas of convective activity are visible on the radar this morning. One area is situated across southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, near the main synoptic front. The second area is lifting across the Missouri Ozarks. Both are fueled by a low-level jet and shortwave energy ejecting ahead of the main upper trough, which is currently moving across the lee of the Rockies. Convective tops are notably warming over the Ozarks as this system encounters drier mid-level air, weaker instability, and reduced surface moisture convergence. As the shortwave/MCV continues its northeast track out of the Ozarks and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley later this morning, it is expected to interact with outflow boundaries from decaying northern storms that will have drifted south of the main synoptic front. The net effect will be an area of re-blossoming convection over central Illinois this morning. While a tenuous low-level jet may sustain this activity into the early afternoon, the severe threat remains low due to relatively poor lapse rates and shallow CAPE profiles. Thunderstorm activity is expected to briefly lull this afternoon as the shortwave/MCV departs and subsidence occurs, leaving a somewhat worked-over warm sector. However, this lull may be short-lived due to quickly increasing synoptic ascent within a difluent zone ahead of the main upper-level shortwave moving into the lower Missouri valley. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for severe weather, particularly west of Interstate 55, where CAPE profiles will become chubbier as mid-level lapse rates steepen ahead of the main upper-level shortwave and near a residual Elevated Mixed Layer (EML). With better CAPE and deep-layer shear of 30 knots or greater, supercell and multicell clusters are possible across west- central Illinois. Modeled hodographs from the HREF Mean suggest straight or N-shaped profiles, which are more indicative of splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. While it is uncertain if these storms will be surface-rooted or elevated, an intensifying low-level jet this evening will increase Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) and result in a more curved hodograph. This introduces a tornado threat if storms manage to become surface-rooted. Regardless of storm initiation/evolution for the late afternoon through early evening period, CAM output becomes more consistent by tonight that additional storms upstream will congeal and grow upscale into a linear MCS overtime as the effective surface boundary sags southward into central Illinois. In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a low potential for localized flash flooding, particularly if storms repeatedly track over the same area. The latest HREF QPF LPMM highlights a narrow area in east-central Illinois that could see 3-5 inches of rain through Thursday morning. This is notable, as current 6-hour flash flood guidance suggests that general flooding issues could arise after 2.5-3 inches of rain. A break from storm activity is expected across the entire region on Thursday, driven by synoptic-scale subsidence following the departure of the upper trough. However, the threat of thunderstorms returns over the weekend, specifically beginning Friday night and lasting into Saturday. This renewed activity is tied to a compact shortwave trough lifting across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more robust, pivoting trough and its associated cold front. Despite the frontal passage occurring during a diurnally unfavorable time, the parameter space for CAPE and shear appears sufficiently volatile to support an organized risk of severe weather which lasts through the overnight hours as the convection grows upscale along the front. A significant cooling trend is expected from Saturday night through Monday following the passage of the cold front, as the previous week's warm, moist air mass is displaced. Latest NBM guidance indicates a concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures Saturday and Sunday night anticipated to fall into the 30s. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push across the central Illinois terminals through the TAF period. Confidence in timing and coverage of storms remains low, resulting in several periods of either TEMPO or PROB30 for TSRA through tonight. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times, shifting to the west Thursday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  968 FXUS63 KGRR 151801 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues - Thunderstorm chances again this evening - Further chances for storms late this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms have passed, flood risk continues Front has passed to the west and the south with lingering showers and a few isolated storms along the I 94 corridor. Most of southwest Michigan is in the downsloping drier air. The boundary will continue to move to the south and east slowly overnight. A few clusters of storms are expected to follow along the stalled boundary and move along the I 94 corridor overnight into early this morning. The atmosphere is mixed over with little if any dynamics so further severe is not a concern. However, potential hydro concerns remain. The heaviest rainfall occurred north of the I 96 corridor with bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches of radar estimated rainfall. Latest CAMS do have a line of showers and storms through southern Michigan, but that boundary has shifted to the south. So will continue to watch for potential hydro threat this morning but the heaviest rainfall should be along the southern row of counties of Michigan . - Thunderstorm chances again Wednesday The thunderstorm chances will keep on coming. There is a greater potential for weak convection this morning. Any clouds and rainfall will inhibit any atmosphere recovery today. Temperatures are expected to get into the mid 70s with Dewpoints into the 60s. The mid to upper level dynamics are far weaker than the previous two days. That said, another surface low and corresponding frontal patter will move through the region tonight into Thursday. Mid level moisture and weak forcing will accompany that system into far southern Lower Michigan. The best LLJ and helicity will be in Indiana. If that forcing shifts to the north then there could be a better chance for severe Wednesday evening into Thursday. Due to the above conditions SPC has far southern Lower in a slight risk. Main threat will be wind. Given the wet pattern we have been in, hydro will remain a concern. Latest soundings are fairly moist with weak mid level flow, so definitely more of a rain sounding. There is quite a few areas of stable air so access to mid level moisture could be a concern. WPC continues to keep the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. - Further chances for storms late this week Michigan could see a reprieve from showers and storms Thursday into Friday. This break will probably be short lived as another large upper level system is trending to move through the region Saturday into Sunday. Latest mid range models are in fair agreement ion the passage of a large upper level low Saturday. that low should bring a system with decent QPF through Saturday. There remains a deepening elongated mid level trough associated with that upper level pattern. SPC does have southern Michigan outlooked for potential severe weather through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current radar loop shows an area of rain moving east-northeast across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan with lightning presently confined to south of Michigan. This activity may brush our southeast terminals early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are developing over Iowa and will affect the terminals early tonight. Another factor is marine dense fog over Lake Michigan, which is already producing IFR/LIFR conditions at MKG with the onset of onshore flow. We expect a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR restrictions well into tonight with the thunder threat continuing towards and after 06Z. For the sake of brevity, have not provided much detail after that, but it's looking likely that IFR ceiling restrictions will be common into and possibly beyond 12Z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected overnight with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage. Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe. Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days. Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...TJT MARINE...Ceru HYDROLOGY...AMD  498 FXUS63 KBIS 151803 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from northwest to southeast Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Turning much colder with periods of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Well below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a gradual warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An eastward moving line of isolated radar echoes is present over central North Dakota. However, quite a bit of dry air is present off the surface, while ceilings associated with these returns are around 10 kft. Therefore, other than the potential for a few sprinkles, little to no rain is expected. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota this morning. Isolated showers from earlier overnight have generally diminished. In their wake, patchy fog has started to develop over portions of south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. An interrogation of BUFKIT soundings indicates that this fog is likely to be fairly shallow. Fog is generally expected to lift through the mid morning as the sun rises and the winds begin to pick up. Overall, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak 500mb shortwave traversing the northern Plains this morning has helped propagate light rainfall across portions of south central North Dakota, main where it overlaps a weak surface trough. These light showers will continue to exit to the east through the mid morning. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible across portions of eastern North Dakota into the James River Valley, as well as in the Turtle Mountains area. Lows are from the mid 30s east to upper 30s to lower 40s west and central. Near zonal to increasingly southwesterly flow is expected over the northern Plains today as a closed Pacific trough moves across the southern Canadian Prairies. With this pattern highs well above normal are expected this afternoon, from the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast. Mainly clear skies are expected southwest and central through the morning and afternoon, though cloud cover will increase from northwest to Southeast through the late afternoon and evening ahead of an approach low complex associated with the aforementioned Pacific trough. Low chances for precpitation (10 to 30 percent) will develop across the far northwest and far north central this evening into early tonight, as a shortwave perturbation ejecting off this trough slides up the southwesterly flow pattern. Lows tonight are forecast from the upper 20s to lower 30s north, to lower to mid 40s south. By mid morning Thursday, the main wave of precpitation associated with the low complex is expected to start moving into the northwest, increasing to become likely (50 to 75 percent) across much of the southwest and central) late Thursday afternoon and evening. With the timing of the associated cold front delayed until later in the afternoon, highs on Thursday are expected to remain above normal in the 60s to mid 70s across the south, while dropping to well below normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the far north. With the lingering warmth across much of the forecast area, precpitation is expected to fall initially as rain, before transitioning overnight to a rain-snow mix, then all snow, as temperatures drop. With short term CAMs staring to contribute to the ensemble, the NBM has dialed into a slightly slower evolution of the system as whole, allowing for lightly accumulating snowfall to be possible across much of the forecast area Thursday night through Friday. The greatest source of uncertainty between ensemble members appears to be the relative strength of the trough as it crosses the northern Plains, which has ramification on overall QPF and thus overall snowfall accumulation. A slight majority of members (55 percent) favor a shallower trough, while would help limit snowfall across the southwest and south central to around a dusting at most, up to around an inch or so in the far north central. A minority cluster also exists (45 percent of members), which advertises a slightly deeper or close trough over the forecast area through early Friday morning. In this scenario, the potential for portions of central North Dakota as far south as I- 94 to exceed an inch of snowfall is higher (30 to 50 percent), while portions of the far north central could exceed 2 inches overall (15 to 30 percent chance). In either scenario, overall impacts due to snowfall are expected to be limited. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday as the pressure gradient across the northern Plains tightens with the passage of the low complex, though the potential for any sort of wind headlines during this period remains very low. With the much cooler airmass over the northern Plains on Friday, well below seasonable normal highs in the 30s to lower 40s are forecast. Warming and dry weather is then expected through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging builds in across the region, with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s by Monday. Long term deterministic models hint at the breakdown of the upper level ridge and a return to a more active pattern by the midweek as another deep pacific trough moves into the western CONUS, though there remains significant disagreement between ensemble members regarding timing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are currently present across the state. Light rain will likely encroach into northwestern North Dakota this evening, with a 50 percent chance that KXWA will be impacted (covered using a PROB30 for now). KMOT could also see some light rain, though probabilities are pretty low at the moment. Precipitation may then pass across the state tonight and into Thursday morning near the International border. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow are all possible, though this wintry mix is not favored to impact any terminals. A cold front will drop from north to south across the state Thursday resulting in breezy conditions. A few hours of LLWS is possible ahead of the frontal boundary before winds switch to a westerly and then northwesterly direction, though confidence is only high enough to include in the KBIS TAF for now. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Telken  269 FXUS61 KAKQ 151803 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 203 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today and tomorrow will likely be the hottest days of the week, with widespread lower 90s (and localized mid 90s possible inland...especially today) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Some record highs will likely be tied or broken today and potentially Thu. The current records at our long-term climate sites are noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry yesterday (Tue), will continue with the Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA today (Wed) where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs in the low to locally mid 90s. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS yesterday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be slightly less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-40%. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Ensemble probs of 0.01" of rain on Friday are 30% at most across northern portions of the FA. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have increased slightly (to 40-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 18z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots initially this aftn, but then shift to the SSW and may gust up to ~20 kt between 19-23Z, before dropping off again this evening. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early aftn Thursday, with gusts to ~20kt lasting through the remainder of the aftn. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week with a brief surge in winds Thursday night. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis 1022mb high pressure continuing to sit off the southeast coast. This is allowing SW winds to prevail around 10 to 15kt across all waters. These winds will continue to prevail through at least Thursday evening. Will note, there could be brief periods of 20 kt gusts especially across the nearshore waters due to day time heating. Waves are remaining between 1-2ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the oceans. A weak cold front is forecasted to move over the waters Thursday evening into Friday. The pressure gradient ahead the front is progged to slightly tighten. This will assist in increasing the winds around 15 to 20kt with the highest winds over the ocean. Seas will build to roughly 4ft and perhaps 5ft around 20nm. A brief SCA cannot ruled out during this time frame. However, confidence is low given the marginal conditions. Looking towards the weekend benign marine conditions are forecasted both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a much stronger cold front is progged to move through the waters brining SCA conditions lasting through Monday with the additional surge of cooler and drier air. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...HET CLIMATE...MAM  122 FXUS64 KSJT 151803 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Complex of thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning, tracking northeast. This may affect portions of the Northwest Hill Country and will continue to watch it and update POPs ahead of it as needed this morning. For the rest of the day, a very similar setup to what we have seen on Monday and Tuesday. Unstable air mass across the area for the afternoon with CAPE values at or above 2500 J/kg. Dryline will become established and slide east to near the western borders of the Big Country and Concho Vally by mid/late afternoon. Again, convergence along the dryline is relatively weak and there is limited upper level support. If a storm can develop and sustain itself, it will have plenty of instability to work with and large hail will be possible. But trying to pin down if/where along the dryline a storm will actually develop and how widespread anything may be remains the uncertainty. Similarly to the yesterday, model blend POPs just seem excessively high considering the coverage seen in pretty much every CAM. Will knock down POPs across the board down into the 30-40% range. POPs can always be updated and increased later today if storms start to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 One more unseasonably warm day is expected on Friday before cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend and early next week behind a cold front. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. The dryline is forecast to advance east, just west of our forecast area, by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the dryline. A strong cap will be present, so confidence remains low that we will see any convection along the dryline. If a few storms do develop, they may move into our western counties during the evening hours. For now, PoPs were kept on the low side (around 20%), but will continue to monitor. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late Friday into Saturday morning, sending a cold front south into West Central Texas Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances. Rain amounts look to remain fairly light (generally under 0.25 inches) as any showers and thunderstorms should move through fairly quickly. Gusty north winds will filter in behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. An upper level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will approach the area on Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover. Cool temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned disturbance approaches, rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday. Generally low end (20-30%) rain chances are forecast. The continued extensive cloud cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will keep highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday. A steady warm up is then anticipated into the middle of next week with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and highs on Wednesday back into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR conditions continue at our four southern sites, but these conditions should improve within the next 2-3 hours to VFR as temperatures warm, and ceilings either lift or scatter out. Otherwise, there is again a chance for isolated to scattered TSRA later this afternoon and evening, but confidence in coverage is not high enough to mention in TAFs at this time. VFR through 06Z at all sites with MVFR ceilings moving back into our southern sites tonight between 06Z and 10Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...20  140 FXUS61 KCLE 151803 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely unchanged. There will be severe weather potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards possible. Additional rounds of severe weather possible Thursday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential across the region continues this afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday. 2) Multiple rounds of precipitation through Thursday night will bring flooding potential to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northwestern Ohio. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Highest potential for frost/freeze will be Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday as a boundary wavers through the central Great Lakes through the early weekend. See below for a breakdown for each day: Today: Northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania continues to destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the southwest. As this occurs, MLCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0 C/km. Lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm potential. Additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, that will support organized convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are currently getting started across eastern Indiana and western Ohio early afternoon along a boundary across that area. As this moves eastward more into Ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and intensity. Timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the western portion of the CWA by 2-3PM and traverse across exiting into Pennsylvania by 8-9PM. Another round of thunderstorms are possible late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving through the region. Though, severe potential associated with those should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates. Thursday: Another round of severe weather is possible on Thursday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the continued southwesterly flow. The main threat will be in the evening with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the region. Can't rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best instability. The severe weather potential should begin to diminish around sunset and move out to the east. Saturday: The next round of severe potential will be during the afternoon on Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the strong low to mid level winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... With plenty of moisture advection across the region through Thursday night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Precipitable water values will be around 1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in thunderstorms. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through Thursday night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north of the area and support the potential for training storms. Generally expecting this to stay north of US Route 30. Through Thursday night, rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end amounts closer to the lake shore. Higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms as well. Latest guidance has trended northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so confidence is lower in this. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures through Saturday evening will continue to be above average. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see southwesterly flow across the region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday sweeping a cold front through that will usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop down to 5-10 degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest of this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations possibly seeing upper 20s. Given the growing season as begun across Ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night with a lower potential for Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday rising to around seasonally average. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, SW'erly to W'erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region as a stronger disturbance moves E'ward and nears Lake Michigan and vicinity by 18Z/Thurs. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge. Our regional surface winds should trend S'erly to SW'erly around 10 to 15 knots through the TAF period. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially before 23Z/Wed and after 14Z/Thurs. Scattered to widespread low clouds are expected through the TAF period and any resulting ceilings should be in the 2kft to 6kft AGL range. As of 17:30Z/Wed, lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms had developed just west of our region in northern IN and far-NW OH. These showers/storms are expected to persist generally E'ward through our region through ~02Z/Thurs and produce the following: brief MVFR to IFR; brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 to 55 knots. Some storms may also produce damaging hail. Behind these initial showers/storms, additional isolated showers and storms with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible the rest of this evening into Tuesday morning amidst low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, but confidence remains very low that this additional convection will occur. After ~14Z/Thurs, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may outpace the aforementioned stronger disturbance aloft and impact locations as far east as roughly the latitude of KCLE by 18Z/Thurs. These storms should produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief MVFR to LIFR. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and again on Saturday. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...10  338 FXUS61 KOKX 151804 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 204 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region. H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain. Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this afternoon and evening. VFR for much the TAF period. There will be a chance of showers/tstms with brief MVFR/IFR conditions this evening and the first part of tonight. The best chances will be north of the NYC terminals and most of the CAMs have backed off on the precip reaching the NYC terminals. Winds will be from the SW around 10kt kt inland and S along the coast this afternoon, with some gusts over 20 kt at the NYC metros north/west and with the sea breeze at KJFK/KISP. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt by 00Z-01Z Thu. Winds become light and variable in many spots tonight, then increase again on Thursday to 8-15kt with some gusts to near 20kt. Low chance of fog tonight which may bring flight categories down to MVFR or possibly IFR. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance for a shower at the NYC terminals this evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday: VFR. Gusty S winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD/DBR AVIATION...BC MARINE...MD/DBR  582 FXUS61 KAKQ 151805 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today and tomorrow will likely be the hottest days of the week, with widespread lower 90s (and localized mid 90s possible inland...especially today) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Some record highs will likely be tied or broken today and potentially Thu. The current records at our long-term climate sites are noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry yesterday (Tue), will continue with the Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA today (Wed) where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs in the low to locally mid 90s. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS yesterday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be slightly less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-40%. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Ensemble probs of 0.01" of rain on Friday are 30% at most across northern portions of the FA. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have increased slightly (to 40-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 18z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots initially this aftn, but then shift to the SSW and may gust up to ~20 kt between 19-23Z, before dropping off again this evening. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early aftn Thursday, with gusts to ~20kt lasting through the remainder of the aftn. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub advisory conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend. - A strong cold front crosses the region on Sunday with potential for degraded marine conditions both ahead of and behind the frontal passage. Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the NE Gulf Coast with ridging extending well to the NE into the Atlantic. A weak lee trough is noted across inland areas with stronger low pressure extending from MI southwest into the central Plains. Winds locally are mainly from the S and SW 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Benign boating conditions will persist today through Saturday with briefly stronger winds possible in the evening/overnight periods. Latest guidance continues to show a stronger period of SW flow Thursday night with winds ~15 kt in the Ches Bay and 15-20 kt offshore. A few gusts may approach or briefly exceed SCA thresholds during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Given the marginal winds/seas, will hold off on any headlines as the period in question is 36 hours out. A stronger system approaches the region by early Sunday with increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front. Some showers and/or storms are possible along and ahead of the front with winds becoming NW behind the boundary. Decent cold advection behind the front will lead to continued unsettled conditions until the gradient relaxes on Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...MAM  032 FXUS63 KMQT 151806 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 206 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through Thursday night. - Showers and storms may reach the central and eastern UP tonight into Thursday morning, with light totals below a quarter inch. - Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday night into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals up to half an inch are becoming likely, but higher amounts are possible with a 10- 20% chance for totals in excess of an inch. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Earl this morning, a warm front remains draped across southern WI eastward through the central LP. Forcing along it has lead to more active weather across WI and the LP, but we remain well north of the excitement, up here on the cool side of the boundary. With plenty of low-level moisture courtesy of our melting snowpack and a sharp inversion, widespread fog is developing across the UP. This is dense at times, with several ASOS sites throughout the area reporting visibility well below a mile. Model soundings show limited chance of this mixing out even through sunrise, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended a couple of hours until 14Z. Heading into the daytime hours, once our fog mixes out, we should see some breaks of sunshine across the western UP Much like today temperatures will vary greatly across the U.P, with low 40s in the far north to the low 60s south, closer in proximity to the warm front. This, in combination with dewpoints in the 40s, will lead to increased snowmelt which in turn continues to pose a threat for flooding o rivers, small streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. Flood headlines remain intact. Another shortwave looks to ride along the boundary this evening into tonight, and though guidance increasingly limits PoPs to our south, with more of a glancing blow to the UP, some showers and storms still will not be ruled out across our area. This should leave us with rain totals of less than a quarter of an inch, with any isolated storms dropping higher amounts. A warmer stretch is expected for Thursday into Friday as a deep trough moves into the western U.S. Easterly winds will develop on Thursday, becoming southerly by Friday. This will bring the potential for some of the warmest temperatures thus far this spring, reaching into the 70s over the west (90% chance for temperatures over 70). The strengthening southerly winds, warm temperatures and higher dew points will accelerate the melting of the snowpack further with continued flooding concerns. More uncertainly exists for the weekend as the low pressure moves east along or north of Lake Superior. Slower solutions keep warmer air in the U.P. well into Saturday while faster solutions would bring a front through and much cooler temperatures by Saturday morning. Another round of rain and thunderstorms is likely to accompany the front. Behind the front it will be much cooler with snow showers possible Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance still suggests a wet snowfall for the western U.P. NBM probabilities for 2" or more of wet snow in the west are around 20-40% Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog and low ceilings will continue to be the main aviation concern across the region over the next day with generally light winds and ample moisture from snowmelt present. For the rest of the evening, we will see MVFR to IFR conditions at all terminals. After sunset, dense fog will develop and conditions will deteriorate back to LIFR. It is anticipated (greater than 80% chance) that the visiblity will be below airport minimums at all three terminals during the overnight and early morning hours. After sunrise Thursday morning, conditions will improve and the fog will thin out, with conditions expected to improve to MVFR by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Dense fog remains over much of the lake through this moring, slowly mixing out during the afternoon before expanding again tonight. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, 30% chance for gales over the eastern lake. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday night into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. Additional rain chances continue, with a slight chance for showers/storms tonight and higher confidence in another wave of rain Friday night. Rainfall tonight will likely be less than a quarter inch but heavier rainfall is possible for Friday night. NBM has a 10-20% chance for an inch of more of rainfall Friday night. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Flooding in the wake of snowmelt and multiple heavy rain events continued over the south-central U.P. Tuesday. Though the snowpack is mostly gone in the south-central; swamps, creeks, low lying areas and rivers remain full/high and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. This could exacerbate the ongoing flooding though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. For the north and east snowmelt and potential rainfall will continue the flooding threat though the week with the analysis and observations showing over a foot of SWE in the higher terrain. Rivers in the far western U.P. were beginning to fall and anticipate that the Flood Watch will be able to expire this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western U.P. until Thursday night. This may need to be extended further in time with future updates as even warmer temperatures and higher dew points, along with increasing winds are expected for Thursday and Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/NL AVIATION...RM MARINE...LC/NL HYDROLOGY...  641 FXUS64 KBMX 151810 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 110 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 110 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to recent dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama despite the potential for light rain amounts Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Broad southwest flow associated with an eastward-moving trough is shown to bring a smaller, low-amplitude shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. Ensemble data suggests that the bulk of showers/storms left over from today/tonight's southern Plains activity, and any renewed activity on Thursday, will be to our northwest/north; however, some activity may manage to affect a few locations northwest of the 59 corridor. For a majority of Central Alabama, it'll be another seasonably warm and dry day. A larger, and more powerful, trough will sweep across the U.S. this weekend, sending a front across Alabama Saturday night. Based on model trends, this system has a better potential to bring some rain to a bit more of the state, favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. This certainly won't be a drought-busting rain, though. Sunday's highs will be near 15 degrees cooler and there is at least a low chance for some communities to reach the upper 30s Monday morning north of a Birmingham latitude. At this time, the wind and humidity forecast Monday morning is not supportive of frost. Temperatures then steadily warm through the rest of the week. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for Central Alabama terminals over the next 24 hours. The one aside is the low potential for MVFR advection fog to make its way to MGM, from southern Alabama, early Thursday morning; this is not formally included at this time. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions shall persist over the next several days due to drought conditions, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. MinRHs through Saturday are forecast to be in the 30 percent range though some locations may slip into the upper 20s. Daytime winds will sway from south to southwest near 5-10 mph with infrequent gusts as high as 15-20 mph, light at night. A front comes Saturday night with showers favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. At this time, locations near and north of the 20 corridor stand the best chance for measurable rain, averaging less than 0.50 inch. Behind the front, MinRHs on Sunday are currently forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts near 20 mph. There is some potential that Sunday dew points and MinRH will need to be lowered a tad. Winds become lighter from the northeast on Monday and southeast on Tuesday, between 5-10 mph, though MinRHs should be even lower, reaching the lower 20s for many locations. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 85 58 89 / 0 10 10 10 Anniston 58 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 61 85 62 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 58 85 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 58 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 57 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite  729 FXUS64 KHUN 151814 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Temperatures are rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s at this hour as south-southwest winds increase to 8-12kt, with gusts of 15-20kt. High temperatures will top out in the 79-86 degree range this afternoon. RH values will dip into the 30-35% range. A 5h ridge axis will shift east tonight as a shortwave tracks into the upper MS valley. A band of thunderstorms will move into IN, western KY and AR very late tonight. A few showers could enter western TN as well, but these are not expected to reach northwest AL before morning. Once again, a west-east temperature gradient of around 10 degrees is expected for overnight lows as high clouds increase. Lows will drop into the middle and upper 50s in eastern Jackson, DeKalb and Cullman Counties, up to the middle 60s in far western Lauderdale and Colbert Counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper level ridge continues pushing eastwards on Thursday resulting in a low to medium chance (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are higher (30-40%) for middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama. The thunderstorms are not anticipated to be severe and will result in very little precipitation totals for most, generally less than 0.10. Aside from the rain, temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Dry conditions return on Friday and increasing temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Tennessee Valley which is around 13-16 degrees warmer than normal. The high temperatures Friday approach record highs set in 2006 of 90 degrees at HSV and 92 at MSL. Friday night temperatures will continue to be warm with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. Be sure to drink plenty of water on Friday and take breaks in the shade. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....TG LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...17  345 FXUS61 KCLE 151818 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely unchanged. There will be severe weather potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards possible. Additional rounds of severe weather possible Thursday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential across the region continues this afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday. 2) Multiple rounds of precipitation through Thursday night will bring flooding potential to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northwestern Ohio. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Highest potential for frost/freeze will be Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday as a boundary wavers through the central Great Lakes through the early weekend. See below for a breakdown for each day: Today: Northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania continues to destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the southwest. As this occurs, MLCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0 C/km. Lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm potential. Additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, that will support organized convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are currently getting started across eastern Indiana and western Ohio early afternoon along a boundary across that area. As this moves eastward more into Ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and intensity. Timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the western portion of the CWA by 2-3PM and traverse across exiting into Pennsylvania by 8-9PM. Another round of thunderstorms are possible late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving through the region. Though, severe potential associated with those should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates. Thursday: Another round of severe weather is possible on Thursday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the continued southwesterly flow. The main threat will be in the evening with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the region. Can't rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best instability. The severe weather potential should begin to diminish around sunset and move out to the east. Saturday: The next round of severe potential will be during the afternoon on Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the strong low to mid level winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... With plenty of moisture advection across the region through Thursday night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Precipitable water values will be around 1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in thunderstorms. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through Thursday night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north of the area and support the potential for training storms. Generally expecting this to stay north of US Route 30. Through Thursday night, rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end amounts closer to the lake shore. Higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms as well. Latest guidance has trended northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so confidence is lower in this. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures through Saturday evening will continue to be above average. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see southwesterly flow across the region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday sweeping a cold front through that will usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop down to 5-10 degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest of this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations possibly seeing upper 20s. Given the growing season as begun across Ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night with a lower potential for Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday rising to around seasonally average. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, SW'erly to W'erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region as a stronger disturbance moves E'ward and nears Lake Michigan and vicinity by 18Z/Thurs. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge. Our regional surface winds should trend S'erly to SW'erly around 10 to 15 knots through the TAF period. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially before 23Z/Wed and after 14Z/Thurs. Scattered to widespread low clouds are expected through the TAF period and any resulting ceilings should be in the 2kft to 6kft AGL range. As of 17:30Z/Wed, lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms had developed just west of our region in northern IN and far-NW OH. These scattered showers/storms are expected to persist generally E'ward through our region through ~02Z/Thurs and produce the following: brief MVFR to IFR; brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 to 55 knots. Some storms may also produce damaging hail. Behind these initial showers/storms, additional isolated showers and storms with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible the rest of this evening into Thurs morning amidst low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, but confidence remains very low that this additional convection will occur. After ~14Z/Thurs, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may outpace the aforementioned stronger disturbance aloft and impact locations as far east as roughly the longitude of KCLE by 18Z/Thurs. These storms should produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief MVFR to LIFR. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and again on Saturday. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A broken line of thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie early this morning and could be strong to severe. Thunderstorms will act to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a period of time. Winds will switch back around to the southwest on Wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms possible. Low pressure will track east across the Central Great Lakes on Thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest behind a cold front Thursday night. Southwest winds develop out of the southeast on Saturday and veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. Winds will be elevated at 20-25 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed heading into Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...10  483 FXUS61 KCAR 151818 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 218 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. 2) Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system developing in the northern Great Plain is expected to track towards the Great Lakes Saturday, then move into Canada Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to sweep through the region Sunday. Sunday morning should begin with rain and continue through the afternoon. The cold front should exit the area by early Sunday night, switching winds to NW flow. Ample cold air advection is expected to drop temps to below freezing after midnight on Sunday night. This should switch any remain precip to snow. By Monday, temps will increase in the south, switching snow back to rain, but snow should remain in the north. Cold temps should remain to the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Moist air mass remains in place overnight through Thursday. This will result in the possibility of some locally dense fog developing late tonight into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of this afternoon...IFR/LIFR at the Aroostook terminals, with MVFR KBGR/KBHB. Light variable wind. Tonight...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings, patchy fog, and scattered showers. Light SE wind. Thursday through Thursday night...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and scattered showers. Improvement to MVFR possible KBGR/KBHB for a brief period Thursday afternoon. Light SE wind. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. Monday...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. Visibility will fall to 1 NM or less at times tonight through Thursday morning in fog. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWD/ARL AVIATION...TWD/ARL  299 FXUS61 KCTP 151819 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 219 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Additional details on today's thunderstorm threat && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. 2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for today and tomorrow. Elevated risk of wildfire spread poss Thu. A +2 sigma ridge over the Southeastern US will continue to drive warm air up into the Mid Atlantic and Northeastern US. Temps as of 09z in the 50s and low 60s are still sitting a degree or two above the minT records at IPT and MDT. Record warmth will remain possible through Friday morning. Humidity has accompanied the heat thus far, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s expected again this afternoon. The flow on Thursday will become more SWrly, with more large scale downsloping off the Appalachians resulting in drier air at low levels. RH values in south central PA may dip into the low 20s pct Thu afternoon, which, combined with wind gusts over 20 mph, may result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread, particularly if that area remains rain free today/tonight. We will say goodbye to the warmth for a while come Sunday after a strong cold front knocks temps back to near the freezing mark for the start of next week. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the next few days, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be severe, particularly across the northwest late this afternoon and evening. A decaying MCS moving from Lake Erie into NW PA has produced wind gusts near 40 kts on the Erie lakeshore. As this system moves east, multiple lines of convection may initiate early this morning as waves in the top of the stable nocturnal boundary layer lift parcels high enough to tap into a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability. Sfc wind gusts will likely be less than 30 kts for most places given the stable sfc layer. This first round of convection will be winding down by 10-11 AM, with a lull in the action expected late morning into early afternoon. This afternoon and evening, new convection is expected to initiate along a west-east quasi stationary boundary and remnant outflow boundaries. Cool temps at mid levels above very warm and moist low levels will result in steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much of central PA. With about 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible. Storm motions near 40 kts and DCAPE of 500-700 J/kg should be sufficient to produce a respectable threat for damaging winds in the NW this evening. There is also some potential for training convection later this evening into tonight over NW PA as the mean flow becomes aligned with WSW-ENE initiating boundaries and moisture continues to advect in from the SW. Convection allowing models suggest there could be a few stripes of 1-3" of rain across NW PA in areas of repeated heavy rainfall. WPC continues a MRGL ERO for this threat. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Current satellite as of 18Z/2PM EDT outlines partly cloudy skies across W PA ahead of showers and thunderstorms in western Ohio approaching the forecast area. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to track eastward this afternoon/evening with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern half of the airspace (BFD/IPT/UNV) between 22Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday. Recent HREF/NBM/RAP model guidance continues to highlight BFD as the airfield under the gun for TSRA mentions, mainly between 22Z Wednesday and 02Z Thursday, which could bring lower visibility and ceilings in this timeframe. At this time, model guidance tends to keep everything above MVFR thresholds; however, cannot rule out brief drops towards MVFR/IFR thresholds in heavier thunderstorms this evening. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be most likely at BFD in the aforementioned timeframe, which could bring gusts above 40kts so radar trends will need to be monitored closer to the time for this threat. Further south, model guidance has trended back on precipitation mentions which lines up fairly well with recent GLAMP model guidance, thus have nixed mentions of SHRA/TSRA south of a IDI-UNV-HZL line in the 18Z TAF package. Between 06Z-12Z, TSRA threat decreases due to lack of instability; however, could continue to have some lingering SHRA at BFD which could bring MVFR ceilings/visibilities with relatively low (~20-30%) confidence. Have outlined this potential with a scattered low-level deck; however, there is a lower bound solution where this low-level deck trends slightly lower in future TAF packages. After 12Z, widespread VFR conditions are progged by the bulk of model guidance so have penciled these in with moderate-to-high (~60-80%) confidence through 18Z Thursday. Main aviation concern between 12Z-18Z Thursday will be the presence of breezy (20-25kt) northwesterly winds across all of central PA's airfields. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Beaty/Lambrech CLIMATE...Colbert  314 FXUS63 KDLH 151819 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 119 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior today through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Rain and thunderstorms on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread dense fog continues this morning across much of the Northland. Most guidance is in good agreement that this fog should burn off through the morning, so we have our Dense Fog Advisory expiring at 15z. Another round of fog is possible tonight for Lake Superior, the MN Arrowhead, and NW WI. Today through Friday, we'll see prolific WAA shoot high temperatures well above normal into the 50s, 60s, and even low to mid 70s tomorrow. This will be for most of the area away from Lake Superior. Over the lake, that warm air mass should help encourage a lake breeze circulation keeping coastline areas much cooler. Have blended in some high-res guidance to adjust coastal temperatures down for today through Friday. Those very close to Lake Superior (within a couple miles) will likely struggle to get out of the high 30s to low 40s and may see more persistent fog. A low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for strong to isolated severe storms is along I-35 and east where the SPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal risk. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 600 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The primary threat will probably be severe hail from elevated storms, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. See previous discussion for snow concerns through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Skies will continue to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon. IFR/MVFR ceilings will give way to VFR conditions by around 20Z. Fog and low stratus will develop once again tonight except at BRD. Low ceilings are forecast as well. The low ceilings will be tied to the fog. If fog doesn't develop, skies should remain VFR. Low-level wind shear may develop after 16.21Z as a southerly jet passes over the region. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today should be mostly calm out on the lake, with a light northeast breeze this afternoon as a weak lake breeze circulation starts up. Thursday, stronger northeast winds are expected, with some afternoon gusts up to 20knots at the head of the lake. This period will need to be monitored for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory. Into Friday, northeast winds continue through the morning, and then become northwest through the afternoon. Gusts of 20-25knots are possible Friday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Areas of dense fog should burn off through this morning, but another round is expected overnight into Thursday. With very warm inland temperatures Thursday, fog could linger across Lake Superior through the day Thursday and into Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Much above normal temperatures enter the Northland today through Friday. Expect highs in the 50s, 60s, and even low 70s (Thursday) away from Lake Superior. A stout lake breeze boundary is likely to set up around Lake Superior each afternoon. Thursday is expected to be a dry one with good low level mixing and high pressure to our north. Minimum RH could drop to 20-30% away from Lake Superior. Some stronger southerly winds are possible for the Brainerd Lakes, north- central MN and across to the I-35 corridor on Thursday as well, with sustained winds 10-15mph and gust of 20-30mph. Combined with high temps in the low 70s away from Lake Superior, Thursday may need to be considered for possible near-critical fire weather. Winds pick up into Friday and temperatures stay warm, but an incoming system should improve moisture. Thunderstorms, some possible severe, are expected Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible in severe storms and some locally heavy rain is possible. On the back side of that system, some light snow may fall into Saturday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ142. && $$ UPDATE...Levens / MPX DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens HYDROLOGY...Levens  486 FXUS62 KILM 151820 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. A Fire Danger Statement continues for southeast NC through this evening. Dry conditions continue for the entire area with active fire evident on satellite. Minimum RH will drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s each afternoon, except for coastal areas where an afternoon sea breeze will keep minimum RH in the 40s. Southerly winds remain weak, but seven-day rainfall totals are zero. Rainfall totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C Thursday and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees Thursday and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Record highs Thursday through Saturday: ................Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. The cold front will encounter increasing moisture limitations as it moves east of the Appalachians during Monday. NBM probabilistic rainfall graphics show only low chances for >0.01 as the boundary moves through. The window for any precipitation appears limited as well, especially with deeper drying expected to develop by Sunday evening. Otherwise, expecting gusty winds (potentially 20-25 mph) several hours either side of the frontal passage. This is a fire weather concern given the drought status. During Monday the surface high will build over the region during Monday providing a period of cooler than normal weather. Highs during Monday will be hard pressed to reach 70/lower 70s even with full sun. Radiational cooling will likely be most effective Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the typical cool spots possibly dropping into the upper 30s. During Tuesday the high will move offshore allowing temperatures to recover by midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Persistence forecast for the upcoming 24 hour period. Smoke could impact visibilities late tonight for portions of the area. Predominant S and SW winds will turn southerly behind an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Summer-like Bermuda high maintains a quiet and persistent forecast through Thursday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday night through Monday...SWly winds will prevail ahead of a weak inland surface trough Thursday night through Saturday with some backing each day with the sea breeze. A cold front moving across the waters during Sunday will allow winds to veer, and increase in the wake of the boundary Sunday afternoon/early evening. There could be a briefing period of Small Craft conditions during that time. Winds will continue to veer from an offshore direction to NE-Ely Monday through Tuesday as an area of high pressure translates over NC/VA and gradually offshore. SWly winds could increase again Wednesday night and Thursday morning before a weak pressure gradient causes light/variable conditions late Thursday. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less through much of the period, but at times could reach 4-6' with the frontal passage and late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP KEY MESSAGES...21 DISCUSSION...21/TRA/SRP AVIATION...21 MARINE...21/SRP  848 FXUS66 KMTR 151821 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1121 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AM clouds/fog have given way to mostly VFR for 18Z tafs. Some coastal strato-cu will occasionally impacts HAF and MRY. A weak boundary will sweep through this evening/early tonight bring a return of brief MVFR CIGS from approx 03Z-08Z depending on terminal. Behind the boundary offshore flow and drier air rush in kicking LL moisture out with VFR returning. Moderate wind speeds are expected at all TAF sites mentioned above throughout the day and night with some experiencing strong gusts. Winds are expected to decrease slightly by tomorrow morning before increasing again. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few CU hugging the hills to the west. Probabilistic guidance brings frontal CIGS to the San Bruno gap close to 03Z and then over the terminal by 05-06Z. Once the boundary goes through drier air erodes MVFR cigs by 09-10Z SFO Bridge Approach...CIGS arrival and clear tonight will be 30-60 min after terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals... Around 03-04z tonight, lower CIGs will make their way through MRY, and SNS resulting in MVFR conditions. These low clouds will eventually dissipate out by early to mid- morning tomorrow and conditions will shift back to VFR, except at MRY where they will stick around through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM/AN MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  027 FXUS64 KEPZ 151824 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1224 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Fair and seasonal today, with lighter winds. - Breezy again Thursday and Friday, and with very dry air will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A cool front moves in Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. - Moisture slips in from the east for a low chance of rain on Sunday over areas generally east of the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough and moisture plume are finally to the west of our area, allowing for the skies to clear. Nice quiet day today as short wave ridge moves over us. Things change again Thursday and Friday as upper low near Vancouver Island begins moving east across the northern/central Rockies. This feature will gradually tighten our pressure gradient and allow breezy winds both days. Right now Friday looks a bit windier but trough timing a bit too fast for best potential. Still stiff mid level winds Thursday night and Friday morning will bring strong gusts to the Sacramento Mtns. Will likely issue wind advisory for this situation. Trough eventually brings strong Pacific cool front through our area, initially dropping south as a side door front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Front could bring brief northerly wind gusts down the Sierra Lakes/Tularosa Basin Friday night, but am more concerned about very strong pressure rises Friday night into Saturday morning along easter New Mexico/Texas Panhandle. This could cause a hydraulic effect in our eastern CWA with much stronger winds than what the models show. West slopes could see wind gusts of 40-50 mph briefly Saturday morning. Otherwise a bit of a breeze Saturday with temperatures dropping to near normal. Sunday and Monday...exiting trough initially allows short wave ridge over us Saturday night, but then upper low/vort center moves over NW Mexico late Saturday night and turns lower level winds (below 700mb) more southeast to east, importing some moisture into the area for Sunday. Thus some lower rain chances back in the forecast for Sunday. As usual GFS/CMC most bullish with the moisture advection, though even the ECMWF shows higher dewpoints Monday, so will keep a mention in then for rain chances. Pattern recognition would indicate some chance for strong storms with good shear environment but GFS instability not great right now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-FEW250. After 18Z, increasing SCT150 BKN-OVC250. Surface winds west 10-13G20 knots diminishing after 01Z to northwest AOB 7 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Some fire concerns for Thursday and Friday as humidity continues to lower and afternoon breezes develop. Winds Thursday of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, with a bit stronger winds on Friday. Right now Friday looks to be just short of Red Flag conditions, though that may change if upper trough timing becomes more conducive to stronger winds. Strong wind shift Saturday from west to north and eventually east by mid-day, along with cooler temperatures for the weekend. Gusty east winds Sunday with a chance of rain/thunderstorms. Chance of rain continuing into Monday. Back to dry and warm Tuesday/Wednesday. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, then increasing to 18-25% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 10-20% through Saturday, then increasing to 25-40% Sunday and Monday. Vent rates excellent Thursday and Friday, becoming good-very good Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 80 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 35 60 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 83 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 80 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 80 35 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 73 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 79 32 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 28 75 28 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner  291 FXUS66 KPQR 151825 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1125 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated hazards .UPDATE...Observations show the freezing level remains around 2500 ft. Mixed rain/snow showers are expected to continue through today down to 1500 ft elevation, but these showers are unlikely to produce accumulating snow. && .SYNOPSIS... The back edge of a cold frontal boundary which has spread ample precipitatiion and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest quickly progresses through the region this morning followed by a showery airmass and a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through tonight. Concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week although forecast confidence Sunday onward is low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night... Now through Friday Night... Now through Thursday Night...Early this morning satellite and radar observations show our latest weather disturbance in the form of a cold-frontal boundary and the wide band of stratiform precipitation dropping NW to SE across western Oregon. Snow-levels are expected to quickly bottom out around 1500-2000ft in the cold airmass behind the frontal boundary by late morning with snowfall continuing to be the primary impact with this disturbance focused over the Cascades. We're still watching for a potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling artificially lowering snow levels closer to ~1000ft around sunrise this morning, particularly in coast range and southwest Washington southward through portions of Clackamas County. However, as far as travel is concerned, it'll be challenging to get accumulation on roadways at this elevation should a period of wet snow or a rain/snow mix occur. The chances for a light slush-up gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000-2500ft+. The heavier precipitation early to mid morning helping to drive these lower snow levels will also help to boost snowfall rates at pass level, likely reaching 1-1.5+ in/hr until the frost passes. If you plan to traverse across the mountain passes today, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. Once we get into the midday and afternoon hours we'll have transition to a more convective and showery post frontal environment thanks to the core of a upper level low moving overhead. Most models still show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg this afternoon leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM today when heating between shower bands is maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny pea size hail. Also be on the lookout for infrequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain associated with any activity. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. At this point the axis of the upper-level low pulls to our east with increasing heights on northerly flow aloft by sunrise Thursday morning helping to decrease shower activity. The lingering cooler temperatures aloft and partial clearing by sunrise should allow overnight lows to drop below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley, and potentially in the Cascade foothills mainly around and south of OR-22. Give the moderate to high confidence in these low temperatures panning out, have issued frost advisories for much of the region including a Freeze Watch for the Upper Hood River Valley and a couple of the aforementioned Oregon Cascade foothill zones. A few showers likely lingering through Thursday, increasing in the afternoon due to daytime heating, however, the bulk of the activity will be pinned to terrain features in the Cascades and coast range. Similar frost/freeze conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning and additional highlights may be needed for this period. Even though temperatures warm slightly aloft Thursday night compared to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, weak pressure gradients combined with a building ridge of high pressure aloft and better clearing may prove to be a better set-up for frost development. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Looking towards the weekend confidence is high among both deterministic and ensemble guidance in a ridge of high pressure continuing to build aloft allowing temperatures to gradually warm and reduce frost concerns. However the pattern remains rather progressive as models show the ridge quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. WPC Cluster Guidance does favor this low dropping almost straight southward across the eastern Pacific favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast. How far this low holds off the coast will heavily modulate conditions locally. Should it stay more to our west, warmer conditions and broad southerly flow would be favored, That said, any moisture riding south to north within this flow pattern could spell the return of convection. Thus forecast confidence Sunday onward into the middle of next week is low. -99/42 && .AVIATION...Post frontal showers are expected to persist through the day with increasing chances for convection in the afternoon after 20Z Wed. Highest probabilities lie along the Cascade foothills and to the north with around a 25-35% chance inland within the Willamette Valley. Thunder is challenging here as often it may be one storm that pops up, while other times it can be a wide swath. In this case, because the flow is northwesterly (not as favorable) behind the previous system, would trend towards a more isolated thunderstorm scenario. Overnight, showers will slowly dissipate and clear. Dropping temperatures mean that there is a slight chance for frost formation over exposed surfaces. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Combination of MVFR and VFR conditions with showers. Around a 30% chance of thunderstorms between 20Z Wed through 06Z Thu. Thunderstorms will trend towards an isolated scenario. Frost potential overnight if skies remain clear. -27 && .MARINE... A cold frontal boundary is quickly progressing across the coastal waters early this morning with winds switching northwesterly in its wake. Expect gusts between 20-30 knots the remainder of the day as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the region. This feature will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters into the evening hours. Seas are expected to persist at around around 9 to 10 ft, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft tonight as a fresh northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Thursday morning for both the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar. High pressure then builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. It appears there's a 40-60% chance for north winds to gust above 21 knots into Small Craft Criteria on Saturday. Looking ahead there is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>110- 114>118-123>125. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ121. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ203>205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  186 FXCA62 TJSJ 151826 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 226 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 * Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours across northwestern Puerto Rico. * Increasing instability from tomorrow and Friday, associated with an amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced moisture availability, will promote an active weather pattern, particularly each afternoon across northwest Puerto Rico. * Southeasterly low-level winds will promote slightly above-normal temperatures across low-elevation and urban areas. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the north- exposed beaches of the islands over the next several days. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 During the morning hours, a mix of clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the region, with only a few light showers and minimal accumulations over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds were mainly from the east to southeast at around 10 to 15 mph, with occasional higher gusts. Daytime maximum temperatures have ranged from the low to mid-80s across low- elevation, urban, and coastal areas, and from the 70s to the low 80s in the mountainous regions. Across the USVI, temperatures have fluctuated in the upper 80s. Around noon, strong convective shower activity began developing from the northern slopes into the northern municipalities, prompting Flood Advisories and Special Weather Statements due to a strong thunderstorm producing heavy rain, wind gusts, and possible small hail. For the rest of the afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue moving across the north- central into northwestern municipalities. This will result in a continued elevated flood risk, including flooding in urban areas, along roads and in small streams, as well as ponding of water in poorly drained areas. Gusty winds and the potential for landslides in steep terrain are also concerns. As the sun sets, activity should diminish, leading to calmer conditions early tonight. During the overnight hours into Thursday morning, the latest high-resolution models suggest the development of isolated to scattered showers across the waters, the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and eastern Puerto Rico. Conditions will become slightly more favorable for instability as the cut-off low continues to drift northeast and the upper-level trough amplifies just west of the region, maintaining the divergent side of the system over much of the eastern portion of the CWA. Then, during Thursday afternoon, another round of active convection is expected from the interior into the northwestern municipalities. A similar pattern is anticipated on Friday. Overall, for the remainder of the short-term forecast (Thursday and Friday), the trough will meander over the area and combine with above-normal moisture. With this setup, strong thunderstorms are likely, capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds each afternoon across the northwestern quadrant. Keep in mind that soils are saturated and streamflows remain elevated, therefore, any additional persistent heavy rainfall will maintain an elevated flooding risk each day. && .LONG TERM(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 Variable conditions may persist through the weekend, with a gradual improvement over the first part of the next workweek. Wind pattern will mostly be dominated by a surface high pressure lingering over the Central Atlantic, promoting winds from the E-SE. Another feature that may influence the weather pattern in the deep-layered trough that, according to the latest model guidance, is expected to linger over Hispaniola. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, it seems that Saturday and Sunday will most likely be the wettest days of the period, with PWAT values lingering between 1.8 and 2.0 inches, wet for this time of the year. Additionally, low to mid level moisture content will remain high (above 60%), while model sounding suggests skinny profiles. Conditions look favorable for convection, as the influence of the trough will maintain slightly cooler than normal mid level temperatures (around -8 degrees Celsius) and a nearby jet with strong winds aloft (around 60 knots), allowing cloud growth and ventilation. With the favorable side of the trough over the CWA, divergence aloft will also increase the chance of deeper convection, particularly over western Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, for the U.S. Virgin Islands, showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely move occasionally throughout the day, while interior and western Puerto Rico can expect showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon that may persist into the evening. Due to previous rainfall activity, soil saturation, and high river levels, the potential for flooding may increase. Hence, the flooding threat will remain limited to elevated for the aforementioned areas. Besides flooding, expect gusty winds and lightning across these areas. For the rest of the areas, passing showers may move from time to time, though a significant flooding threat is not expected. Weather conditions will gradually improve Monday onwards, as moisture content may decrease and the subsident side of the trough moves over the CWA. Nevertheless, there’s uncertainty between global solutions as GFS continues with a wet pattern (above normal PWAT) while the ECMWF on the side is moving toward a more seasonal to drier pattern. From the latest grand ensemble, there’s variability between them (PWAT difference of half an inch), particularly in the mid to high level moisture content. At the moment, expect a seasonal weather pattern, with isolated showers moving over windward sections in the morning hours, with afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Due to the uncertainty, the flood threat will remain limited. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR condt across most TAF sites, except TJBQ where periods of MVFR condt are possible from 15/18Z-15/22Z with the SHRA/TSRA. Winds will remain light 5-10kt with higher gusts through 15/22Z. Variable winds after 16/03Z and increasing after 16/12Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with surface trough, will promote gentle to moderate from the east-southeast. Pulses of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters are maintaining seas around 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should exercise caution over the next several days. The combination of the front and the trough is increasing showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through at least the rest of the workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 225 PM AST Wed Apr 15 2026 A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the northwestern, northern, and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra through 6 PM due to the arrival of pulses of a weak northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and posted signs. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk of rip currents will persists. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north- exposed beaches through at least next Saturday. Residents and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, especially along exposed coasts. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...YZR LONG TERM...MNG AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH...MMC  061 FXAK67 PAJK 151827 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1027 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...For the Aviation and Marine Forecast Morning Updates. && .AVIATION UPDATE.../Through 18Z Thursday/... As our next system makes its way towards the panhandle from the west tonight, skies begin to become more overcast and precipitation works its way southward. Despite clouds moving in, most locations will remain in in VFR conditions with periods of MVFR overnight in the northern most locations due to the precipitation moving in. Guidance showed possibities of convective clouds and showers occuring in Haines and Skagway as precip move in. Temperatures at PAYA, PAGY, and PAHN are expected to be at or around freezing overnight, so light, non-accumulatiung snow is expected to mix in with rain. To the south, we note the fog for Misty Fjords and parts of Prince of Wales, Revillagigedo, Gravina and Annette Islands has mostly dissipated late this morning. We expect VFR over the southern Panhandle with MVFR working in towards morning as precipitation works southward. Garmon/Perez .MARINE UPDATE...The northerly winds on the east side of the GulfAK high pressure ridge have dropped to around 15 kts and seas have subsided over the eastern GulfAK to around 7 ft. We have dropped the Small Craft Advisories for the near shore eastern GulfAK waters. With the high rates of insolation today across the northern Panhandle, we do expect to see south winds pick up for Lynn Canal this afternoon to around 20 kts. HRRR shows mostly 15 kts from a prevailing southerly direction by mid/late afternoon for the northern half of the Inside Waters. Rest of forecast is on track. Garmon && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 548 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 SYNOPSIS... -Patchy fog dissipates through Wednesday morning. -Dry weather and clear skies on Wednesday. -Chances of showers return Wednesday night into Thursday, and remain through the first half of the weekend. SHORT TERM...The forecast remains on track. Drier weather remains across SE AK, as a weak mid-level ridge builds over the area. Clearer skies will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures, with highs reaching into the upper 40s or lower 50s while. Through the early morning hours on Wednesday, some patchy fog has developed across the Misty Fjords, PoW Island, and Petersburg. Drier weather will begin to wind down Wednesday evening as cloud cover builds back and a shortwave trough manages to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See the long term discussion for more information. LONG TERM...The low pressure from the short term will continue to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the south and high pressure moves into the Gulf. This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves into the area. Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the panhandle. AVIATION...Drier weather keeps VFR conditions across much of the panhandle this morning, with the only impacts being some fog development over parts of the southern panhandle. This has brought Petersburg and Klawock down to 1/4 SM at times early this morning, and will keep VIS between 1/4 and 1SM into the next few hours before the fog begins to lift. Most of the fog will become patchy and less impactful to VIS later into this morning before fully lifting by 18z. VFR conditions will last through the rest of the TAF period for the southern half of the panhandle once any fog lifts. The northern panhandle will begin to see some precipitation move in this afternoon into the evening, though CIGs are not expected to begin to drop to MVFR until around 2 to 6z for the NE Gulf Coast with showers moving through associated with a weak shortwave tonight. Lowered CIGs bringing conditions down to MVFR will impact the Icy Strait Corridor area by around 8 to 10z Thursday as this feature moves E across the panhandle tonight. Winds will start as northerly and weaker this morning, before switching to be from the S as a push of southerly winds moves up Lynn Canal around 00z, with a period of 15 to 20 kt SE / S winds for Haines / Skagway with some gusty conditions associated, before winds begin to diminish by 04 to 06z tonight. Winds for Icy Strait Corridor will switch to become W into the morning with between 10 to 15 kt expected before also diminishing. MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue across the outer coastal waters on Wednesday. Wave heights of 4 to 5 ft in the northern gulf and 6 to 8 ft in the southern gulf will steadily decrease through the day on Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft, with the higher wave height lingering in the SE Coastal waters. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. A barrier jet reaching strong breeze on Thursday is expected around the vicinity of Kayak Island. Inner Channels: Northerly winds have diminished through the overnight hours, although a few locations still maintain moderate breezes. Through Wednesday, winds will veer out of the S as the pressure gradient flips and a weak trough moves over the ridge in the Gulf and towards SE AK. Winds will build back to fresh breeze across many of the inner channels through Wednesday night, with some areas like Lynn Canal and Stephen's passage reaching strong breeze through that timeframe - potentially even earlier (through Wednesday afternoon). Winds remain out of the S through the weekend, strengthening on occasion when a shortwave moves through. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...GFS MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  019 FXUS62 KKEY 151827 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 227 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the rest of the week, and into the beginning of next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with BKN skies based near FL040 and FL050 gradually clearing over the first half of the TAF period. Northeast to east surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue to occasionally gust to near 20 knots. An increase in cloud cover may occur during the second half of the TAF period, but categorical changes aren't expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will maintain moderate northeast to east breezes (except moderate to occasionally fresh Florida Straits) through tonight. Occasional fast- moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. A new high pressure will slide eastward Sunday night into Monday, allowing for another round of freshening breezes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, a broad and weak easterly wave will approach and stall in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Though this feature will not reach the Keys proper, some moisture from this wave will leach and slide westward at times. This may allow for some showers to pass through at times Friday through Sunday. On top of this, the low level steering flow will remain north to northeast and any showers or thunderstorms that develop across the mainland during the afternoons could also slide across the Upper Keys at times. Early next week a backdoor front looks to slide through the Florida Keys with a slight uptick in rain chances but also a period of freshening breezes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 72 83 74 / 0 10 0 10 Marathon 81 72 82 74 / 10 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  392 FXUS63 KARX 151828 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and an unstable airmass in place. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Severe Storms Possible Again Today Another day, another chance for severe weather to impact the Driftless Region. Early this afternoon an elevated supercell was moving across Western and Central Iowa, riding a quasi-stationary boundary north and east along a gradient of MLCAPE. As it's generally on the cool side of the front, this is expected to continue to pose more of a large hail threat given steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE in the hail growth zone. Further east across Northeast Iowa and Southwest Wisconsin, lingering cloud cover and light showers have allowed the area to remain sufficiently capped and overall stable. As these finally start to move to the east/northeast, we may see a small window of destabilization. Latest mesoanalysis trends show meager destabilization before storms really start to fire later this afternoon as ascent from an ejecting upper trough across the Central Plains increases across the area and interacts with the surface boundary. Moderately strong mid level lapse rates should still promote between 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, even with the continued cloud cover. The main threat with any storms would be large to potentially very large hail. There's also potential for splitting supercells given the significantly elongated straight hodographs expected with this activity. The main question will be how long storms can stay semi-discrete before either lifting north of the boundary or growing upscale into a cluster as effective bulk shear between 30-50 kts will promote upscale growth. These storms will also be effective rainfall producers as pWats continue to increase with 850 mb moisture transport into the region. Another 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation is expected with across portions of SW and Central Wisconsin, areas that have already seen ample rainfall and flooding over the past couple of days. Have issued a Flood Watch for this area starting at 4 pm and continuing through 7 am tomorrow morning as areal flooding may form with exacerbation to already ongoing areal/river flooding expected. Even More Severe Weather Friday After a brief reprieve from severe storms Thursday, we re-enter the severe weather fray on Friday. A deep trough over the Rockies is expected to start sliding east with ascent out ahead of it increasing across the southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface a family of lows will stretch south from the Dakotas into the Central Plains and Colorado Rockies with a cold front connecting them. A broad warm sector will develop across the Mississippi Valley ahead of this cold front which will allow for convective development Friday afternoon as ascent aloft increases locally and interacts with the eastward moving cold front. A highly unstable air mass should be in place with forecast instability in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Effective shear will be ample enough to support initial supercellular development before upscale growth occurs and forms a more linear structure. A 40-60 kt jet in the 850-700 mb layer will also help to promote low/mid level hodograph curvature and strength, increasing the potential for tornadoes with the supercells. The main question will be how far north can the moisture and more ample instability make it ahead of storm initiation with greater uncertainty in northward extent. Far southern portions of NE Iowa are currently in a Day 3 Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) with the rest of the local area in a level 2 Slight Risk. Much Cooler This Weekend, Snow Chances?? Behind this cold front, cold air advection will be rather strong given the tight pressure gradient behind the departing surface low (moving northeast into Ontario). With the strong cooling expected in the wake of the front, any post frontal precipitation may potentially turn to a rain snow mix Friday night into Saturday as lows drop into the low to mid 30s. No accumulations are expected as surface temperatures will remain quite warm after the stretch of 70+ degree temperatures we've seen as of late. Any snow should melt on contact pretty quickly. Precipitation will gradually come to an end through the day with high temperatures in the 40s, 20-30+ degrees cooler from Friday. Beyond Saturday, it looks like a dry forecast with temperatures warming back into the 50s and 60s by mid week - a much welcomed relief after an active week of severe weather! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered showers and storms will be mainly found south of Interstate 94 corridor. Confidence on the northern extent of these storms were not high enough to include them in the KRST TAF at this time. As far as KLSE, confidence was a bit higher so they were included in the TAF. For late tonight, fog will likely develop. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty on how dense it will be, so just added some MVFR fog for now. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Flood Watch has been issued for Southwestern Wisconsin and portions of West Central Wisconsin as yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is set to impact the region. With additional .5- 1.5 inches of QPF expected from this activity, areal and river flooding is expected to worsen. The main basins of concern look to be the Kickapoo, the Yellow (WI), Lemonweir, and Wisconsin Rivers as these areas have already been hit hard over this past week. Major flooding is either already occurring or expected to occur for the Yellow River at Necedah, Castle Rock Dam on the Wisconsin River, and the Lemonweir River in New Lisbon. Flooding along the Lemonweir has already lead to some road closures in portions of Juneau and Monroe counties with additional rain likely to exacerbate ongoing problems. Additional rainfall is also expected Friday as a line of storms moves through the entire area, again impacting portions of SW and WC Wisconsin. QPF totals with that system remain a bit more uncertain - though another 0.5 -1.5 inches certainly looks possible. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ042>044-053>055- 061. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...Barendse  852 FXUS63 KDMX 151830 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A nearly stationary frontal zone is draped across Iowa this afternoon, with the surface boundary stretching from around Glenwood to Des Moines to Elkader. South of the boundary, winds are gusty from the south southwest and temperatures are soaring into the 70s. North of the boundary, winds are light and variable and temperatures are holding in the upper 50s to 60s. A cluster of severe thunderstorms developed this morning in eastern Nebraska and has tracked east northeastward into our area, affecting areas between Highway 20 and Highway 30 and west of I-35 so far. However, farther south near the surface boundary the atmosphere remains undisturbed and very unstable, with strong deep layer shear moving overhead. As a mid-level trough approaches from the west this afternoon, it will generate additional storms along and south of the surface front that will carry an attendant threat for large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The storms will eventually clear our area to the east this evening, though a few weaker showers or storms may bubble up behind it as the mid-level trough moves overhead. Later tonight through Thursday night, a 500 MB ridge will build across the region and provide a brief respite of quiet weather. Thursday will be mild and dry, with winds coming around to south and picking up later in the day. The strongest winds will be in our northwestern counties, farther from the departing ridge to the east, with speeds of 15 to 20 MPH and higher gusts up around Estherville and Storm Lake on Thursday afternoon. As temperatures warm to near 80 degrees in that area, RH will plummet to near or just below 30 percent, combining with the gusty winds to result in an elevated fire weather risk, mainly north of I-80 and west of I-35. On Thursday night relative humidity will characteristically increase after sunset, however winds will remain brisk through the night and support unseasonably warm low temperatures by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 By Friday morning a deep longitudinal 500 MB trough will be crossing the U.S. Rockies, emerging over the High Plains late in the day. A surface low pressure trough will develop ahead of this system, stretching from around the Texas Panhandle northeastward across Kansas, Iowa, and toward Lake Superior by the middle of the day. A sharp baroclinic zone will develop along this trough, with gusty south breezes ahead of it and stronger north northwest winds behind it providing enhanced low-level convergence beneath a broad region of dynamic lift on the leading flank of the approaching 500 MB trough. Initially a low-level inversion will inhibit convective initiation, but by the afternoon near-surface warming and mixing will erode the cap and numerous thunderstorms will develop all along the frontal zone. SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/KG and 0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 35-45 KT will support strong updrafts and a severe weather threat across a large area, particularly given the magnitude of forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings indicate a deep unstable layer and strong winds aloft (around 50 KT at 700 MB), but generally straight hodographs with little directional shear in the effective layer. Any surface-based storms will be able to tap into modest directional shear in the lowest levels, but the tornado threat remains uncertain due to a relative lack of backed surface winds - certainly any storms moving to the right of mean motion would carry an enhanced tornado threat. In any event, given the strength of the wind fields, linear nature of the convection along the frontal zone, and magnitude of instability in the hail growth zone, damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat at this time. If the storms are able to form an organized QLCS, then the tornado threat may increase accordingly. Overall, any areas of Iowa that are along or east of the front when convection initiates will see a significant threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty in exactly where the front will lie when storms develop, but the eastern/southeastern half of Iowa appears most likely to be under this threat. The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon and evening, resulting in sporadic periods of MVFR or lower conditions. Have targeted TEMPO/PROB30 groups around most likely time windows of impact, but amendments will be likely based on radar and observational trends. Once the storms clear to the east this evening, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period, but at MCW/ALO there is potential for a period of low stratus and BR in the early morning hours Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee HYDROLOGY...Zogg  166 FXUS61 KPHI 151830 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm potential today has lowered except across the Poconos and extreme northern New Jersey. Increasing potential for fire weather conditions on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-80. 2. Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. 3. Elevated fire weather potential possible on Thursday. 4. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-80. Similar to Tuesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across northeast PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk is in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. Today's risk will be associated with a remnant MCV that is currently located over the southern Great Lakes region that will track east into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and potentially clip the northern portions of our area this evening. As diurnal heating continues, this should contribute to some reinvigoration of convection in the late afternoon as the complex of thunderstorms advances toward our area this evening. Suppose with the warm and relatively moist airmass and MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, some isolated cells could develop, but with bulk shear values generally less than 30 kt, these should not pose a threat. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves, but latest guidance trends continue to indicate that the greater potential may be just outside of our area. For this reason, SPC has nudged the greatest potential further north, only keeping areas north of I-80 in the Marginal Risk. In terms of timing, any convective activity looks to occur in the early evening hours, mainly after 7 PM and concluding by or just after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected through Thursday. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and Thursday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s, though Thursday's highs could a touch cooler with some high clouds around. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next couple of days. See the Climate Section below for temperature records today and Thursday. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temps will stay well above normal through Saturday with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels on Sunday and into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather spread possible on Thursday. A period of elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday as very warm and dry conditions continue. MinRH values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across eastern PA, NJ and the Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread. While these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, suppose a Special Weather Statement may be warranted. We will be in contact with our fire weather partners later today or tonight to determine if a SPS may be needed depending on how dry 10-hour dead fuel moistures are. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 4...There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. Any severe activity is expected to subside before reaching the Mid-Atlantic region, leaving just showers and an isolated thunderstorm possibility. Dry weather will return for the first half of the week, while cooler conditions return for the weekend through next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today (thru 00Z)...VFR. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible at KRDG/KABE, so have kept mention of VCSH. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-23 kt this afternoon. Moderate-high confidence. Tonight...VFR. Lingering showers or thunderstorms possible at KRDG/KABE through 04Z before diminishing. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-high confidence. Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Saturday night-Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers during the period which could lead to temporary lower conditions. Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday. Southwest winds of 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt and seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below advisory conditions. Sunday-Monday...There is a chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Today is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Robertson AVIATION...DeSilva/Robertson MARINE...DeSilva/Robertson  716 FXUS61 KALY 151830 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures north of I-90 this afternoon as these areas remain north of a frontal boundary. Increased wind gusts tomorrow and Saturday afternoons from the previous forecast. Otherwise, little change to the previous forecast with a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon south of I-90, and a slight risk tomorrow north of I-90. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms today, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk (level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week. Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low whether or not any convection will develop this afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we would like to see to give us confidence in convection developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this afternoon into early evening. However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms. Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated. Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather with the showers and storms overnight tonight. Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then, the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets. Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very late afternoon/evening. Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive, especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but instability should be waning by this time with the still relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region. Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front northward through the region and bring scattered showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and 30s to 40s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z/Thursday, mainly VFR conditions expected through early this evening, though can not rule out a brief period of MVFR Vsbys in isolated showers through 22Z/Thu, perhaps with thunder at KPOU. Showers/thunderstorms currently across lower MI and the midwest should track eastward into the region between 04Z-08Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. Light/variable winds should trend into the southwest by mid/late afternoon and increase to 5-10 KT with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible at KPOU, KPSF and KALB. KGFL will generally have light northeast to east winds 4-8 KT before becoming south to southwest by late afternoon at 5-10 KT. Winds become light/variable after sunset through early Thursday morning, before shifting into the southwest and increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...24/23 CLIMATE...07  405 FXUS63 KSGF 151831 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. All modes of severe storms will be possible with the main risks being large hail and damaging wind. - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show deep southwesterly flow aloft from west Texas into New England. Upper low was located over Nebraska with a trough extending southwest of the low into New Mexico with another low entering the Pacific northwest. Surface front was shifting out of central KS into eastern KS where surface based CAPES were in the 3500-4000 j/kg and no CIN was residing. The morning convection and low clouds have kept some CIN values around 50-100 j/kg in the eastern half of the CWA, but this was slowly eroding and better CAPES were spreading east into the area. 0-6km shear values were around 50kts out of the southwest. Still getting some scattered showers/storms over our eastern CWA with the remnants of this mornings activity. Severe weather this afternoon / tonight: Expecting convection to develop along/ahead of cold front/dryline in eastern KS/OK within the band of higher instability. This activity is expected to initiaite slightly west of the CWA with some discrete supercells possible which would include all modes of severe storms. As the upper wave and surface front shift east by late afternoon and early evening, storms may form into clusters or qlcs segments. Damaging wind and an embedded tornado risk will be the main severe weather risks this evening as the qlcs shifts east. While there is some timing differences in the CAMS, the main area of convection should exit the eastern CWA between midnight and 3 am. Thursday/Thursday night: Instability is expected to increase during the afternoon in the wake of any residual precipitation from the today/tonights shortwave. A secondary shortwave is then expected to move through the area during the afternoon and early evening with some of the CAMS generating additional convection over the eastern Ozarks. We are currently in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for this activity, in which the main risk would be with large hail. Anything that develops should move out of the area by the early evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Severe weather chances late Friday into Saturday morning: The upper level wave currently entering the Pacific northwest will continue to track east and into the plains during the day on Friday. A strong upper level jet out of the southwest will be southeast of the trough and move into the area late in the day. strong southerly winds in the lower levels will advect Gulf moisture into the area during the day. With temperatures and moisture increasing in the low levels, instability will increase ahead of an eastward moving dry line/cold front which will begin to push into the area during the late afternoon or early evening. Discrete supercells are expected to develop ahead of a dryline over the central/southern plains and dryline. As the upper wave shifts eastward, the cold front will overtake the dryline and storms should begin to form into a qlcs with damaging wind and spin-up tornado risks becoming the more predominant severe weather risks. The storms and front will continue to track east across the CWA during the night and potentially into Saturday morning before ending. This upper wave will finally end our persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft with drier air moving in behind the wave and surface front for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 18z TAFS, surface based CAPES starting to increase to our west and should creep in here throughout the afternoon. Could see storm initiation ahead of a dryline towards the onset of the 18z TAFS to the west of the CWA, however some scattered activity will be possible over the area before that main area moves in. Have gone with prob30s until late afternoon and then a predominant TSRA with heavier rain between 23z and 02z as the main line moves through. Expecting MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR within the stronger convection. Things should clear east of the TAF sites by 03-04z. May get some stratus in here overnight towards morning, especially at the BBG site. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Camden  022 FXUS62 KTAE 151832 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - There is a medium (60%) chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions over our marine zones for Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong upper level ridging will prevail into the weekend. Warming temperatures are expected area wide with highs in the low 90s likely across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia along I-75. Afternoon highs are about 10 degrees above normal however, we are not in record territory. Light south/southwesterly winds will allow for high humidity values in the early morning hours which will contribute to fog, provided that the winds go calm during the overnight hours. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s. There are no rain chances in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level low, well north of the Great Lakes, will have an associated cold front that will sweep across the Southeast late this weekend. The forcing mechanisms will be far removed from us, keeping us mostly dry as the front passes. There is a less than 20% chance for precipitation with this front. The main story is behind the front, the air mass will be dry and winds have the potential to increase. Although temperatures will return to the upper 70s and low 80s, the antecedent dry conditions will continue/increase the risk for fire danger heading into the start of the work week. Overnight low temperatures behind the front will be in the low 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will remain for across the region this afternoon and into this evening along with winds generally out of the south to southwest. Early morning tomorrow, patchy to areas of fog will bring prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP and expanding eastward to possibly encroaching to TLH and DHN terminals. Fog is expected to lift mid morning across all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure will dominate the region into the weekend with light to gentle (generally) southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, there is about a 60% chance for Advisory level winds Sunday night into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Moderate to high dispersions can be expected for the next few afternoons. Transport winds around 10 mph from the southwest can be expected during the afternoon hours with mixing heights increasing each afternoon above 6500 feet. Despite the light winds, antecedent dry conditions will continue the elevated fire weather concerns heading into the weekend. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front falls to critical values in the low 20s percentage, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  604 FXUS62 KMHX 151834 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 234 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout through early Friday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday. 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. A weak shortwave moving through on Friday may bring a few isolated showers to the area. QPF is only a few hundredths at best with areas surrounding the Albemarle Sound having the best chance at seeing precipitation (15-25%). KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will continue to persist through the period as high pressure remains centered offshore allowing for dry conditions and mostly clear skies as even diurnal Cu field has struggled to develop today along the seabreeze. With a steady SW'rly wind forecast tonight, not expecting a fog threat either once again. As previously discussed on prior discussions main concern will be the wind forecast. SW'rly winds will gust up to 15-20 kt into this evening as the area remains well mixed. SOme areas along the OBX could near brief periods of gusts around 25 kts at times as well. An active sea breeze is also forecast to bring a shift to Sly winds as it pushes inland this afternoon and early evening hours, with a brief window of enhanced gusts near 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. SW winds remain elevated in the overnight hours before increasing once again late Thurs morning. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... This southwesterly flow regime will continue through the week across all ENC waters. Latest obs show the strongest winds across the Gulf Stream with the Diamond Shoals buoy continuing to gust to 25+ kt. Winds will lessen a little overnight as our thermal gradient weakens but will increase back to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt tomorrow through early Friday. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible across all coastal waters and sounds through early Friday, but they're expected to be less frequent. Seas are generally 3-5 ft with the exception of the waters off of Cape Hatteras where Diamond Shoals has been reporting 5-6 ft. Seas of this magnitude will persist through early Friday. Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday. As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night/early Monday with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft in response, peaking early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/OJC AVIATION...RCF MARINE...OJC  626 FXUS64 KEWX 151835 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for isolated strong to severe storms Today mainly north of Highway 90; a near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday as a cold front moves through. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A messy and highly uncertain forecast for this afternoon into tonight as Hi-Res models are still all over the place regarding the location of possible convection. To complicate matters further most of the area remains capped as clouds have been very slow to clear and it's possible they remain over most of the area through the rest of this afternoon. However, if we get just a few hours of some sunshine we could see convection blossom as we have 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE along with decent effective bulk wind shear. Any convection if it does form could certainly become severe with main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, SPC has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather for parts of the Rio Grande Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country. The current thinking is convection may form over northern Mexico and progress northeastward much like last nights activity with areas across the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country seeing activity in the evening. Most of this activity should wane by the early overnight hours as the trough responsible should move off to the east allowing upper level ridging to build overtop of us. This brief ridging Thursday should allow our area to dry out and warm up nicely with many locations approaching 90. Lows Thursday night should remain warm with most staying in the mid 60s to near 70. Additionally, the humidity remains thanks to the very persistent southwesterly flow aloft and southerly level flow at the surface. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our quiet and warm weather extends for one more day as the upper level ridge continues to influence our area. It will likely also be a bit breezy as we become sandwiched between high pressure off to our east and a Low pressure moving across colorado into OK. Additionally, a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front through most of North Central and South Central TX sometime late friday into early Saturday and arriving across our area by late Saturday morning. As this happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front as early as midnight Friday as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a Fredericksburg to New Braunfels to Gonzales line. Additionally, SPC currently has parts of the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather however its a bit too soon to discuss what severe threats may be. The likely convection mode could become linear thus limiting the tornado and large hail risk. Once this front passes expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms to stick around the area through Monday as SW flow aloft continues. However, most of this activity should remain elevated and sub severe as the front will have already pushed well through most of the area. After Monday we should see the peak of this CAA across the area with some locations not making it out of the 60s for highs especially across the Hill Country. A gradual warmup is expected as southerly low-level flow finally returns by Tuesday and continues into Wednesday along with an uptick in rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low clouds continue across the region, but we are seeing cigs trend back to VFR along the I-35 corridor. While clouds will likely remain thick, we still expect cigs to remain VFR through the afternoon and into early evening. A quicker return to MVFR was added to SAT/SSF this evening given thick cloud cover likely to remain intact. While we can't rule out some IFR cigs along I-35 Thursday morning (12- 15Z), confidence is low at this time and prefer to leave as MVFR. Forecast soundings show plenty of moisture, but decent low-level winds overnight into tomorrow morning. Out west at DRT, MVFR may linger a little longer this afternoon, with attention then turning to the possibility of convection. We are seeing some cu develop to the west of DRT over the Serranias del Burro Mountains early this afternoon. We will keep the PROB30 group for DRT this evening for the possibility of activity moving in from the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 89 69 89 / 30 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 89 68 90 / 30 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 67 86 / 30 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 90 69 91 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 87 67 88 / 30 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 89 69 90 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...Platt  688 FXUS62 KCHS 151836 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 236 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above-normal temperatures through Saturday. Highs could approach daily records in some spots. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday, bringing the potential for isolated showers over southern SC in the afternoon. Unfortunately another multi-day dry spell is expected next week. Monday will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Temps will gradually warm back up next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered offshore will remain the dominant weather influence across local waters through late week, producing a modest southerly flow regime. Localized enhancement of winds should occur mainly along the land/sea interface, where mid-afternoon sea breeze circulations shift inland. Winds could be highest across the Charleston Harbor during peak heating hours and timing of sea breeze, with gusts as high as 20 kt at times. Latest guidance still indicates a cold front pushing across the coastal waters on Sunday, supporting enhanced winds and building seas across local waters Sunday night and Monday. Northerly winds should gust up to 25-30 kt across most waters, although a brief period of gale force gusts are possible across outer Georgia waters Monday. Seas could also build to 6-9 ft, largest across outer Georgia waters as well. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most waters, and a Gale Watch could eventually be needed for outer Georgia waters. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday due to the combination of 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds, modest onshore flow, and increasing astronomical influences associated with lunar perigee/new moon. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist this weekend and especially early next week as a pinched gradient associated with a passing cold front supports a gusty northeast wind event along the Southeast Coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 15: KSAV: 92/1972 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DPB/JRL  659 FXUS64 KSJT 151838 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in our area this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing early this afternoon over southeastern Throckmorton County. High resolution models have been consistently developing isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon along the dryline, roughly along and east of an Abilene to Ozona line. The one missing component to aid in convection is upper level support. However, should these storms develop, they will have 2500 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE, and 45 to 60 knots of deep layer shear as well. So, any storms that develop will have the chance to increase to severe levels, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expect storms to continue into the evening hours, ending gradually after sunset as instability wanes. Otherwise, expect another warm night with lows mainly in the lower 60s. For Thursday, temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. With even less support for convection tomorrow, will continue the dry forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 One more unseasonably warm day is expected on Friday before cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend and early next week behind a cold front. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. The dryline is forecast to advance east, just west of our forecast area, by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the dryline. A strong cap will be present, so confidence remains low that we will see any convection along the dryline. If a few storms do develop, they may move into our western counties during the evening hours. For now, PoPs were kept on the low side (around 20%), but will continue to monitor. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late Friday into Saturday morning, sending a cold front south into West Central Texas Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances. Rain amounts look to remain fairly light (generally under 0.25 inches) as any showers and thunderstorms should move through fairly quickly. Gusty north winds will filter in behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. An upper level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will approach the area on Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover. Cool temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned disturbance approaches, rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday. Generally low end (20-30%) rain chances are forecast. The continued extensive cloud cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will keep highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday. A steady warm up is then anticipated into the middle of next week with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and highs on Wednesday back into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR conditions continue at our four southern sites, but these conditions should improve within the next 2-3 hours to VFR as temperatures warm, and ceilings either lift or scatter out. Otherwise, there is again a chance for isolated to scattered TSRA later this afternoon and evening, but confidence in coverage is not high enough to mention in TAFs at this time. VFR through 06Z at all sites with MVFR ceilings moving back into our southern sites tonight between 06Z and 10Z. However, other than the dryline to help with initiation && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...20  025 FXUS64 KCRP 151839 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Thursday and may continue into the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding possible through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisory conditions along with gusts to near gale force Saturday night into Sunday morning behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An isolated shower or thunderstorm could clip the area around Cotulla this afternoon as a storm system tracks across north and central Texas. Otherwise, the rain chances will remain north of the area. A few very weak showers moving north to northwest this morning across the southern Brush Country and Coastal Bend will diminish this afternoon. Similar conditions expected again Thursday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. Overall, only a few minor changes to the forecast through the weekend. The work week still looks to be generally dry with above normal temperatures and breezy afternoons, especially on Friday. The strong onshore winds will usher deeper moisture across S TX ahead of a cold front. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms with measurable rainfall is Saturday through Monday with the highest chances expected Saturday night as the cold front moves through S TX. Behind the cold front, rain chances continue with mostly stratiform rain due to overrunning of the shallow cold dome. A few elevated embedded storms remain possible on Sunday with instability in the mid levels. As for the probability, chances increase to 20- 30% with the higher chance generally across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon. Rain chances increase to 50-70% Saturday night into Sunday. A 25-45% chance of mainly showers continues into Monday. Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide with similar highs Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Gradual warming trend next week. There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through thursday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. This may continue through the work week as onshore winds increase over the gulf waters through Friday. Minor coastal flooding will be possible daily during times of high tide. Will continue to monitor for potential Coastal Flood Advisory. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which is more likely for water to reach the dunes at high tide and warranting a Coastal Flood Advisory. The best chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk but will be offset by the "along-shore" winds. These conditions are dependent on frontal passage timing and strength. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions with CIGs above 3500kft will continue through the afternoon. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs are expected tonight into Thursday morning. VFR CIGs are expected to resume by mid to late Thursday morning. VSBYs are expected to remain generally at VFR levels but could briefly drop to MVFR Thursday morning for mainly VCT. S to SE winds gusting to around 25 knots (approaching 30 knots at the CRP TAF site) can be expected through this afternoon, then decreasing this evening. Winds are forecast to be a few knots lower Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6)onshore flow is expected to develop across bays and coastal waters on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong (BF 6) late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to near gale force can be expected. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase to a medium to high (30-60%)this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week remain very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend with the arrival of a cold front. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday night as the cold front moves through South Texas. Cooler behind the front, but still humid with rain chances continuing into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 84 73 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 94 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 81 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81  768 FXUS61 KBUF 151840 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The severe thunderstorm threat has again slightly increased across the Southern Tier late this afternoon and this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. 2) Severe thunderstorms remain possible through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible through tonight. 3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Our unsettled pattern will continue through Thursday with a persistent frontal zone remaining in place across the Great Lakes and Northeast...with multiple shortwave impulses (some convectively enhanced) and their associated surface reflections rippling northeastward along the frontal zone and causing it to waver about...while also generating additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Currently our region is in between rounds of convection...with the all-but-dead remnants of some earlier upstream showers/storms crossing the Niagara Frontier in the form of some sprinkles or very light showers. As we push through the rest of this afternoon the combination of increasing diurnal instability and localized convergence along the southern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze may allow for some scattered to briefly numerous showers and storms to initially develop across the southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes...before an upstream MCV (currently over Indiana) begins encroaching upon the area from the southwest early this evening. Better forcing attendant to this feature will combine with lingering instability to produce a round of numerous to fairly widespread showers and storms across areas south of the NYS Thruway during the early to mid evening hours...with the areal coverage of the pcpn/pcpn potential diminishing with further northward extent elsewhere. Following the passage of the MCV...we'll likely experience another relative lull in convective potential through the late evening and early overnight hours...with some additional warm advection-driven showers and scattered storms then possible overnight into early Thursday in association with another wave of low pressure making its way into the central Great Lakes and its attendant warm front. With the latter...have confined PoPs to likely or lower for now given the poorer agreement on the timing/placement of convection seen in the shorter-term guidance. Thursday and Thursday evening...the aforementioned surface wave and its parent mid-level shortwave trough will make their way east and across our region...and in the process will push the frontal boundary southeastward across our region as a cold front during the afternoon and evening. With modest to moderate instability developing out ahead of the front...the combination of low level convergence along the front/localized lake breeze boundaries and DCVA/height falls aloft should have little trouble generating another round of fairy widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours...with the convection then fading from NW-SE during the evening with the loss of heating and the passage of the cold front. This system will then depart off to our east later Thursday night and Friday...with any leftover spotty showers at the start of Friday giving way to a mainly dry and somewhat cooler day (though temps will still be well above normal) as narrow ridging both at the surface and aloft builds across our region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms remain possible in some areas through Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall also possible. Through Thursday/Thursday evening there will be two main windows for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms. The first of these will be this evening south of the NYS Thruway (more so across the Southern Tier) in association with passage of the above mentioned MCV. Provided enough of a reservoir of instability remains to allow the stronger convection with this feature to extend northward into our area...the accompanying stronger forcing/increased shear may be supportive of a few strong to damaging wind gusts...as well as a lower but nonzero potential for marginally severe hail and/or an isolated tornado. The second opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon and evening...in tandem with the approach/passage of the main shortwave trough/cold front and an accompanying enhanced swath of low-mid level flow. With modest to moderate instability likely to develop across the region out ahead of the cold front (particularly from the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes eastward into central NY)...the dynamic/kinematic forcing from the above features should be sufficient for at least some stronger multicellular convection and possibly even a few supercells...with damaging wind gusts again the primary hazard. This being said...large hail and an isolated tornado or two again cannot be ruled out...particularly from the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes eastward to central NY where instability should be greater. Finally...there will also be a lower-end potential for excessive rainfall/flooding through Thursday given the moist ground conditions and PWATs of 1.25/1.5"...though given the fast flow aloft and resultant expected quick storm motion this would likely only be a concern if any areas of training were to develop. KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday as our region will remain in the warm sector of a deepening trough over the Upper Great Lakes/an associated surface low making its way to near James Bay. Temperatures will soar into at least the mid to upper 70s...with 80s a possibility if clouds and showers hold off long enough. The strong cold front trailing from the low will then plow across our region late Saturday afternoon and night while generating another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms... some of which could be severe depending upon the exact timing of the front/amount of instability in place. In the wake of this front...deep upper level troughing and a much colder airmass will overspread our region Sunday through Monday... with 850 mb temps plunging into the -10C to -14C range by late Sunday night/early Monday. This will rudely send temperatures back down to levels more typical of March...with the cold airmass and northwest flow regime also supporting lake effect and upslope snow showers in a northwest flow regime Sunday night through Monday morning. This being said...moisture appears limited and the favorable synoptic scale setup is rather brief, so any accumulations will be minor. Highs Monday will only be in the upper 30s/lower 40s at best, and may stay in the 30s areawide if clouds persist most of the day. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Heading into the afternoon, lingering low level clouds persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon, supporting the only IFR conditions region. Otherwise in the wake of this morning's line of thunderstorms, conditions across the remainder of the area have improved to VFR, supporting destabilization and gusty winds with southwest to westerly winds gusting between 25 to 35 knots across Western New York and the Genesee Valley. The next round of convection will move in from west to east in the next few hours, with the best timing of arrival being around 21Z. A few thunderstorms may become severe, with the best location for severe weather lying between KJHW to KELZ. Storms across the Southern Tier will likely produce severe gusts. Additionally an isolated tornado can't be ruled our and a lesser chance for severe hail. Showers and storms will likely remain within the vicinity of the Southern Tier tonight, with ceilings to deteriorate to IFR areawide. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with some local IFR possible at times due to numerous rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing over to snow throughout the day. Monday...Improving to VFR/MVFR. Lingering lake enhanced snow showers and clouds gradually dissipate. && .MARINE... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the lakes through Thursday, a few of which may produce strong surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise the warmer airmass and relatively cold lake temperatures will result in limited mixing of synoptic winds...thereby precluding any real risk of advisory-level conditions. Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are then expected later Thursday night and Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes...before winds increase out of the south/southwest Saturday/Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of a strong cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions with the frontal passage also accompanied by another round of showers and storms...some of which could produce locally stronger winds and higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...JJR  078 FXUS64 KFWD 151840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected through this evening. There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds generally near and north of I-20/I-30 across North Texas. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another cloudy and breezy start of the day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s early this afternoon. Recent radar imagery shows light rain/drizzle across portions of North and Central Texas. This is associated with a passing mid-level wave and a moist environment in the lower levels. For this afternoon and evening, we're monitoring two areas for showers/storms to develop. First, we will have our typical WAA showers and storms across Central Texas. This activity should remain sub-severe with occasional lightning as the main threat. The second area we're watching is our northwestern counties and along the Red River. More organized storms are expected to develop near/along a dryline to our west and move into portions of our area through the afternoon and evening. While coverage of severe storms is still uncertain, some of them will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is lower, but it can't completely be ruled out. Storms may merge into a cluster as they move eastward through North Texas this evening. The best potential for severe storms is expected to remain generally along/north of US-380, but we can't rule a storm or two farther south (near the I-20/I-30 corridor) that could remain strong and/or severe. Our confidence remains lower with the southward extend of this activity as our environment remains more stable. After this activity weakens and/or moves out of our area around midnight, quiet weather is expected the rest of the night with low clouds returning Thursday morning. Overall, quiet weather is expected tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 80s and clearing skies. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast continues to highlight the well anticipated cold front on Saturday followed by quiet weather through Sunday and low rain chances early next week. We will wrap up the week with fairly quiet and warm weather. The upper level trough responsible to push the surface cold front on Saturday will approach the Four Corners with the surface dryline staying far west of our area. We should remain mostly dry but surface winds will increase during the day. The best lift for organized storms is expected to remain to our northwest towards Oklahoma. Outside of the windy conditions, highs will climb into the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The cold front is still expected to arrive to North Texas late Friday night into Saturday morning with showers and storms developing mainly behind the boundary on Saturday. A cooldown will follow as well with breezy northerly winds continue all day Saturday. This will keep temperatures in the 60s during the day and overnight lows in the 40s Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler weather and dry weather will persist on Sunday, but we could see rain chances coming back to the region early next week. A few upper level disturbances are forecast to swing by the southern Plains and could bring some scattered activity through at least mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Concerns...isolated storms this afternoon and evening with another round of low ceilings Thursday morning. Widespread clouds near 3-6 kft will to continue the rest of the afternoon with more clearing in the evening. VFR should prevail through the overnight hours before another period of MVFR ceilings arrive Thursday morning (between 12-16Z). Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon and early evening mainly along the Red River and northwest of the sites. Some storms may become strong or severe with large hail and damaging winds. As expected, this will impact some of the northwestern arrivals/departures through the evening. Our thinking is that most of this activity should remain north, but we can't rule a few storms to approach the vicinity of any of the North Texas sites. ACT may also see a few showers and an isolated storm or two develop later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, breezy south winds will prevail through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested along and north of the I-20/I-30 corridor through the evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 67 87 67 / 50 30 10 10 Waco 80 67 84 67 / 50 40 0 0 Paris 80 65 82 65 / 50 70 10 10 Denton 79 64 87 66 / 50 30 10 10 McKinney 79 66 85 67 / 50 40 10 10 Dallas 81 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0 Terrell 81 66 84 67 / 50 50 10 0 Corsicana 83 68 86 68 / 50 50 0 0 Temple 81 67 86 67 / 40 40 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 40 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Sanchez  371 FXUS61 KBTV 151842 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes, the severe threat for tomorrow remains relatively the same. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. A few showers continue through tonight. 2. Rounds of showers tomorrow with heightened thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont. 3. Rainy and windy weather expected for the latter half of the weekend as another frontal system impacts the region. Mountain snow possible late Sunday into Sunday night with a cold frontal passage. 4. Much colder but dry to start next week, though trending warmer with chances of rain by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The stalled boundary will remain across the region through tonight, helping lead to a few rounds of showers. Another MCS will develop across the Great Lakes this evening and progress eastward tonight. The convective elements look to mostly stay to the south and they should be elevated by the time they approach. The stratiform precip on the northern extent looks to pass through, though a brief convective shower could reach far southern areas. Overall, a couple tenths of an inch of rain are expected for southern areas with decreasing amounts farther north. Areas north of the boundary like the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will likely continue to see cool temperatures in the 50s and upper 40s and areas of mist and drizzle through tonight. Patchy fog formation is possible anywhere tonight due to light winds and abundant moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mostly dry period exists tomorrow morning after the overnight MCS moves out. An area of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary during the afternoon and evening, bringing multiple rounds of showers. The front will become a warm front during the morning and push north. South of the front, there should be areas of clearing and temperatures should rise into the 70s to near 80. With dew points expected to rise to around 60 and with somewhat steep lapse rates, around or slightly over 1,000 J of CAPE looks to develop down there. However, the low looks to track south of the international border so the front does not look to pass all the way north of the region. North of the boundary, it will be a completely different story. There will be rounds of synoptically forced showers, some lower cloud cover, additional convective blowoff and notably cooler temperatures. Therefore, any instability that forms there looks to be minimal. All areas should see strong dynamics, with HREF mean 0-6 KM shear between 45-60 KTs, 0-1 km SRH between 75-150 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM SRH between 150-250 m2/s2. Due to the favorable ingredients, isolated to scattered severe storms are possible across southern Vermont. The main threat would be damaging winds, though large hail is possible as well. Due to the relatively fast motion of the storms, flash flooding is not expected. Compared to yesterday, the dynamics look slightly better and the warm sector looks to make its way a little farther north, but the exact details and placement of the front remain uncertain. The airmass on the backside of the low is warm so temperatures remain well above climatological normals heading into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Temperatures will warm on a 50+ kt 850 mb jet ahead of the front, allowing highs to rise into the 60s and 70s. Efficient mixing will bring windy conditions late Saturday afternoon into the evening as the core of the jet moves overhead. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely, with locally higher gusts possible in the St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys due to channel and perhaps along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. The cold front moves through Saturday night into early Sunday, so expect we'll have yet another non-diurnal temperature range, with temperatures likely rising or holding steady overnight (especially from the Champlain Valley eastward), then falling or holding steady on Sunday under strong cold air advection (especially over northern NY). Winds will remain gusty, first from the S/SW, turning toward the W/NW after the frontal passage. Showers will come to a quick end from west to east Sunday evening/night as much drier air follows the front; PWATs will only drop to 0.25 or less. Hence, while we expect anticipate temperatures to fall below freezing Sunday night (20s to around 30F by daybreak Monday morning), little to no snow accumulation is expected, particularly below summit levels. KEY MESSAGE 4: Canadian high pressure will settle over the region for the start of the work week. This will be a dry but colder airmass; highs on Monday could well struggle to get into the 40s in the higher terrain, with the wider valleys remaining in the low to mid 40s. Winds will be brisk out of the north/northwest, but we should see at least some sunshine, especially by afternoon. The ridge starts to shift east Monday night into Tuesday, so temperatures should warm 5-10 degrees. Model consensus deviates significantly from there onward, specifically with the strength/placement of an incoming upper trough. Still, do anticipate at least some increasing precipitation chances as moisture returns northward along the back side of the departing ridge, though the details are very uncertain at this point. Given the uncertainty, have not deviated from WPC's forecast from Monday onward. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Widespread low clouds have lifted across many of the terminals this afternoon, though KMSS remains IFR at this time. In general, anticipate MVFR/VFR ceilings in light rain showers for the first 4-6 hours of the TAF period, then conditions drop from 02z Thu onward as we once again see ceilings lower to below 1000 ft. Widespread IFR/LIFR expected to persist through the remainder of the overnight, though there may be brief localized periods of MVFR/VFR at times. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will keep ample low level moisture and light winds overnight as well, so anticipate fog/mist overnight as well, though visibilities should remain 4-6SM. There will be another round of showers 03z-09z, though don't anticipate these to lower visibilities much further. Ceilings start to lift to MVFR after 13z, but additional showers start to move in very late in the TAF period. Surface winds over the next 24 hours will be light and variable, though KMSS should generally remain NE through the period. Outlook... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings AVIATION...Hastings  434 FXUS64 KBRO 151842 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 142 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions continue each afternoon through Friday. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Moderate to high chance (60-80%) of rain this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. - Coastal and marine hazards are expected this weekend behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little change to the forecast through early this weekend. High pressure to our east continues to maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather through Saturday morning. Above average temperatures with highs around 90 (upper 70s-80s near the coast) and morning lows in the low 70s through Saturday. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts around 35 mph possible each afternoon. Gusts are expected to peak on Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday in particular will continue to be monitored. At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through at least Thursday. Gusty winds in conjunction with a new moon this Friday will likely keep the risk elevated through the week. A cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to tap into the anomalously high moisture content brought about by persistent southeasterly flow. Rain chances increase late Saturday evening through Monday, with thunderstorms possible. Coastal troughing behind the front may continue light stratiform rain through Tuesday. The greatest chance of rain and thunderstorms at this time is from midnight Sunday to Sunday night, with moderate to high chances (60-80%) region wide - highest chances along the upper RGV. Early rainfall amounts are still uncertain, but most likely around 0.5-1.0" between Sunday and Monday. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered to broken cloud cover will continue through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Brief MVFR cannot be ruled out with low clouds increasing in coverage temporarily. Southeasterly winds gusting around 30 kts will continue this evening. Overnight, winds lessen and MVFR cigs build, persisting through Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate to fresh onshore breeze maintains moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines today and tomorrow afternoons, with brief gusts around 20 kts possible over the Laguna Madre. Flow increases Friday, leaving Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on the Laguna Madre in the afternoon. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely for all lower Texas waters in the wake of a cold front. Expect strong northeasterly flow with near-gale force gusts and rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK  757 FXUS62 KFFC 151842 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north and portions of central Georgia through this evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Relative humidity minima are forecast to be around 25-35 percent during the afternoons of Thursday and Friday. Surface winds will be southwest at around 6-12 mph on Thursday and west at 4-8 mph on Friday. Gusts to near 20 mph are possible on Thursday afternoon, with the risk higher for areas of higher terrain. 20 foot winds are expected to be similar to those at the surface, possibly 1-3 mph faster. Mixing height maxima will be around 6000-7000 feet on Thursday and 7000-9000 on Friday. Though there is the potential for some rain showers tomorrow afternoon into the evening, mostly over north Georgia (around 10-30% chance), wetting rains are unlikely. Note: Due to ongoing drought and lack of rainfall, critical fire weather conditions will be reached at relative humidity of 30% or less. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler/drier airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. More importantly relative humidity values will be in the teens to lower 20s Monday and Tuesday keeping dangerous fire weather conditions across the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conds prevail across all TAF sites through the period. A Cu field with bases around 050-080 continues to develop over much of central & N GA, dissipating this evening. West winds continue backing to southwest, with speeds of around 5-10 kts; gusts to 15-20 kts cannot be ruled out. After sunset, around 00-02Z, winds subside to around 3-6 kts; variable or calm winds are possible. Winds increase again tomorrow around 15-17Z, remaining southwest and returning to around 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements CRS && .CLIMATE... Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 Records for 04-19 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 65 2024 30 1983 KATL 88 1941 50 1983 67 2024 30 1983 KCSG 93 1927 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983 1953 KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 67 2024 31 1983 1976 1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 82 56 85 / 0 0 10 0 Cartersville 59 87 59 90 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 60 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 58 87 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 Peachtree City 58 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 61 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRS LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...CRS  016 FXUS65 KTWC 151847 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1147 AM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Saturday, with highs warming to 4 to 6 degrees above normal Sunday through early next week. Gusty southwest winds are expected across all of southeast Arizona on Thursday, with breezy southwest to west winds persisting to the east of Tucson on Friday. Gusty east to southeast winds will occur Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions will continue through at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper low will move from the Pacific Northwest today across the northern tier of states on Thursday/Friday. A well defined trough axis associated with this system will stay to our north across the Great Basin as the upper low pushes east. The main impact across southeast Arizona will be increased wind speeds on Thursday and Friday. Expect south-southwest winds of 12-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph areawide on Thursday, with southwest-west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to the east of Tucson on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected east of Tucson Thursday and Friday afternoon's, mainly in Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties. High temperatures today and Friday will be a couple degrees below normal, with highs a couple degrees above normal Thursday and Saturday. This weekend through early next week ridging will take place across the Intermountain West, with a strong Pacific upper low sitting off the West Coast. At time same time, surface high pressure will build down the front range of the Rockies into west/central Texas Sunday into Monday, resulting in a strong pressure gradient setting up over southeast Arizona and western New Mexico. This will bring gusty east to southeast winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to locations prone to easterly winds across southeast Arizona. Winds at this time look the strongest in the Gila River Valley, where southeast winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to around 40 mph will be possible. High temperatures will warm to 4-6 degrees above normal Sunday through early next week, & .AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 16/03Z. Aft 16/03Z, FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 6-12 kts thru 16/02Z. SFC wind between 16/02Z and 16/17Z less than 10 kts and variable in direction. Aft 16/17Z, increasing SFC wind with SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts by 16/19Z and continuing thru the end of the forecast cycle. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will move to our north on Thursday and Friday, resulting in strong and gusty winds. RH values will meet critical fire weather thresholds. However, wind speeds are expected to remain below critical criteria, with near critical fire weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast Arizona (Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties) Thursday and Friday. There may be an isolated location or two in these eastern areas that meet Red Flag criteria for an hour or so mid to late afternoon. Light winds then return on Saturday along with single digit RH values. Gusty east-southeast winds (15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph) are forecast Sunday into Monday morning. Wind speeds may be strong enough in the Gila River Valley on Sunday to exceed critical fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values Sunday and Monday will be in the 8-18 percent range. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  874 FXUS65 KPUB 151847 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1247 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday, with portions of the southern plains added to a Fire Weather Watch for Friday. - A cold front arrives Friday, which will bring rain and snow chances, along with much colder temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for all of our plains for early Saturday morning! - We warm up and dry out for Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight.. Gap flow areas are likely to continue seeing spotty elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon. The San Luis Valley and the Arkansas River Valley may also see briefly critical conditions late this afternoon, but conditions are not expected to be widespread or long-lived enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. Overnight low temperatures will be near normal in the high country and for mountain valleys, but will be warmer than normal across the plains, with most locations only cooling into the upper 30s and 40s. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.. Models bring an upper low into the northern Rockies throughout the day tomorrow. This will increase southwest flow over our region, leading to a higher end Red Flag day for much of south central and southeast Colorado. Southwest winds gusting to 60 mph are likely over the high country, with gusts to 50 mph possible over portions of the San Luis Valley, and gusts to 40 mph over the plains. Single digit relative humidity values are expected on the plains, with humidity values in the low to mid teens over the high country and the San Luis Valley. Daytime highs tomorrow look to soar back into the mid 80s across much of the plains with strong downsloping over the region. Despite seeing temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, all three of our climate sites look to be at least 4 or 5 degrees below standing records for tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most zones (only the San Juans are excluded) for tomorrow afternoon from 11 AM through 11 PM. The late expiration time is due to continued gusty winds and continued mixing late into the night. Much of our plains look to only see moisture recoveries into the 20% range heading into Friday morning, however, the timing of our incoming cold front could change that.. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Saturday.. Models are still in disagreement about timing for the cold front that should come through sometime on Friday. The GFS has now pushed timing all the way up into the late Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. The NAM, EC, and Canadian all have various timing ranging from early Friday morning to later Friday afternoon. This frontal passage timing will ultimately decide several things. Most importantly, it will determine critical fire weather chances versus precipitation chances across portions of our plains. If model solutions that bring the front through earlier verify, daytime highs may end up being cooler than currently forecast, and precip chances may end up starting slightly earlier in the afternoon on Friday as well once upslope gets started. If the front is delayed, daytime highs may end up being several degrees warmer, especially across our southern plains, and widespread critical fire weather conditions may also be possible. For now, a fire weather watch has been issued for Las Animas and Baca counties for Friday afternoon, where the front is most likely to come through late enough in the day to warrant several hours or highlights in the late morning and early afternoon. Further north, where the front comes through earlier, chances for rain and snow showers look to hold off for several hours after the frontal passage as temperatures cool and upslope gets going. The central mountains are likely to see snow showers early Friday morning, with much of the Pikes Peak region seeing light snow chances later in the morning. Snow amounts will be minimal over the Palmer Divide for the Friday morning commute, though again this may change if the front comes through sooner. Total accumulations for the central mountains from Thursday night through Saturday morning look to be around 1 to 3 inches, with similar totals for the higher elevations of Teller and El Paso counties. The heaviest snowfall rates for the I-25 corridor over the Palmer Divide look to fall Friday afternoon as of this writing. Precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning though, with lots of clearing across the region. This system is much colder than what we've seen this season, and our entire plains are likely to see hard freeze conditions after vegetation has bloomed/leafed out across the region due to abnormally warm conditions the past few months. For this reason, a Freeze Watch has been hoisted for all of our plains for Saturday morning. Though we are several week ahead of our "normal" window for issuance of late season freeze highlights, we want to point out that sensitive vegetation and irrigation systems will be at risk this weekend! We remain around 5 degrees or so cooler than normal heading into Saturday afternoon, with most of our plains only warming into the 60s under clearing skies and mainly dry conditions. Just for awareness, the mean date of last freeze for our climate sites are as follows: Pueblo: April 29th Colorado Springs: May 8th Alamosa: June 7th Sunday Onwards.. Ridging sets up over the western conus for Sunday through the first half of next week. This will bring us back into the 70s on the plains for Sunday as we transition into a warming and drying pattern, but likely back well into the 80s for Monday through Wednesday. Humidity values look to be very low given the dry airmass and much warmer than normal temperatures, but winds look to be sub- critical, at least for Sunday and Monday, as ridging develops. Another system takes shape out west through the second half of the week, which may lead to enough increase in southwest flow to bring in another round of critical fire weather conditions by Wednesday, or possibly even Tuesday, though it is too early to tell at this stage. Thunderstorms and severe weather may be possible with this next system later next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Weswt-southwest winds are expected to pick up across the area this afternoon, gusting 20-25 knots or so. Winds will weaken overnight while keeping a southwest component at KCOS and KPUB, while KALS will turn more southerly. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>222-224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  351 FXUS63 KGRR 151850 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday - Colder and Windy Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue Instability is slowly building this afternoon, with thunderstorms intensifying to our south in the more favorable environment. The currently warned storm in Indiana is expected to remain south of the area and with the ongoing stratiform rain, our afternoon chances for severe weather are low. A lull is expected during the late afternoon and early evening before the low level jet picks back up bringing another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots and MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be enough for some stronger to severe storms. Overall the primary concern tonight will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with lower chances for hail and winds. Risk for severe storms looks to taper off by 2am with lingering showers into Thursday morning. Instability will drop off overnight into Thursday morning limiting the lightning potential. As the upper level low approaches Thursday afternoon instability is expected to build. HREF mean surface based instability values around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 30 knots. Some stronger storms may develop with the best chances along and south of I-69, damaging winds and hail are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated spots up to 3 inches possible. Flooding concerns will continue with rivers expected to worsen. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Dry conditions return for Friday with highs in the 70s under a brief period of high pressure. Southwest flow ahead of a deep trough with a strong low level jet will feed warm, moist air into the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the cold front there could be a concern for strong to severe storms. The Day 4 outlook has shifted the 15 percent area further east likely due to the current trend for the front to move through during the early afternoon. - Colder and Windy Sunday Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures may peak in the upper 30s to 40s, however wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current radar loop shows an area of rain moving east-northeast across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan with lightning presently confined to south of Michigan. This activity may brush our southeast terminals early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are developing over Iowa and will affect the terminals early tonight. Another factor is marine dense fog over Lake Michigan, which is already producing IFR/LIFR conditions at MKG with the onset of onshore flow. We expect a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR restrictions well into tonight with the thunder threat continuing towards and after 06Z. For the sake of brevity, have not provided much detail after that, but it's looking likely that IFR ceiling restrictions will be common into and possibly beyond 12Z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog continues to impact the nearshore waters, a Marine Dense Fog advisory is in effect through tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight before transitioning to mainly showers. Winds will shift to the northwest Thursday but remain below Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Friday dry conditions are expected with southerly winds building throughout the day into Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms will also be possible Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries. Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches. Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...TJT MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  874 FXUS62 KRAH 151851 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 248 PM Wednesday... * Nothing appreciable. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 248 PM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 248 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Deep mixing on Thursday will promote a bit gustier sfc flow upwards of 20 kts or so in the afternoon. PWAT will remain below an inch, and given deep mixing, expect afternoon relative humidity to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. While the combined expected min RH and max gusts will be sub IFD criteria, the aforementioned fire risk due to anomalously dry fuels has prompted a request for another IFD for our entire CWA on Thursday (to be issued by the evening shift). A few CAMs are hinting at late night isolated showers possibly reaching the western/central Piedmont. However, limited moisture would only allow for trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of rain, if any at all. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty low. As such, fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend (isolated lightning on Sunday would be concerning) into early next week. Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near- record high temperatures through Saturday. A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds into central North Carolina. Atmospheric thickness values (1000–850 mb) are forecast to be near the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s—about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the warmest temperatures ever recorded in April. Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday. This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. In addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light. Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions. Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 115 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period with light swly sfc flow diminishing overnight. Sswly sfc flow will pick back up on Thursday gusting upwards of 15 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 April 19: KFAY: 94/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Badgett AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...rah  516 FXUS63 KDVN 151851 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 151 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated-scattered showers/storms are expected through the afternoon, with a line of strong/severe storms set to come through this evening. Severe weather is possible, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - A seasonally strong storm system will impact our area Friday afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. - Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front, bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area. Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Seasonally strong shortwave trof currently located over central Nebraska will continue to track east through Iowa this afternoon/evening. A surface low pressure will pass southwest to northeast just northwest of our area, dragging a cold front through our area this evening/tonight. While we already have ongoing showers and storms, we are expecting another round of storms as the cold front moves through the area this evening/tonight. Ahead of that, we will have a stationary/warm front draped over the area, which will be another focus for convective initiation ahead of the main line of convection. This is currently located between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. Thus, a few rounds of storms are expected today, where flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains for those areas at greatest risk, owing to heavy rainfall yesterday. The SPC has our whole area outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather today, where our best chances for severe weather will be with the line of storms progged to come through with the cold front this evening. Isolated severe storms are possible ahead of this through the afternoon, but confidence is low on coverage and severity. Looking at model soundings, we can expect another day of mixed-mode convection. Early-Mid afternoon, we are likely to continue to see scattered showers and storms. Given a lot of cloud cover and higher coverage of showers/storms in our north, the severe threat should remain relatively low into mid-afternoon. Although, areas south of Interstate 80 will have seen more sun peeking through, which has allowed more instability to build. Thus, there will be a little more of a severe threat in our south, generally in the form of semi- discrete supercells. Confidence is low on this at this time, but will further get monitored for the potential through mesoscale analysis this afternoon. This convection will generally be seen between the hours of 12-4 PM. Going into late afternoon and evening, we will see a line (possibly disconnected line of supercells) moving into our area from west to east, with some leading semi-discrete cells as well. The leading cells could be supercellular, which are currently looking to develop between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. These supercells may form just ahead of the line, generally between 4-6 PM, and then get absorbed into the main line. As we get towards the evening hours, the aforementioned line (QLCS- like with embedded supercells) will move through the area from west to east. Timing-Wise, this is expected to move into our west around 5-7 PM, and move out of our area by midnight local time. The best severe threat will be in the late afternoon/evening hours, but gradually decreasing after sunset. Now a look into the environment in place. The AM convection and resultant cloud cover has delayed our surface heating a bit, but clearing skies have been seen. This may limit the overall instability, but will still be sufficient. We are still looking at the potential for CAPE around 2000-3000+, collocated with shear around 50-60+ KTs, with little/no cap seen in forecast soundings. Thus, we have the necessary CAPE/Shear balance to favor supercells today. Although, with strong forcing moving in this afternoon and evening, upscale growth is expected. As was mentioned, this could be in the form of a disconnected line with embedded supercells. Lapse rates are once again favorable for hail in the midlevels, collocated with a fat CAPE profile in the hail growth layer. SPC highlights parts of our area in the potential for significant hail (2"+), which is possible. Otherwise, all hazards are in play today, with the primary threat being winds and embedded tornadoes when the line of convection comes through this evening. We are especially focusing on counties along the Interstate 80 corridor, as this is generally where the stalled out boundary will be. This will serve as a focus point for severe weather (some significant severe weather possible), with the increased tornado threat. Tonight and through Thursday, weak ridging moves in, with a surface high pressure quickly passing through. Thus, after any residual showers move out Thursday AM, we should remain dry for the remainder of the day. Clouds will also decrease through the day, with light winds and temperatures increasing into the mid-upper 70s. Thus, we are in for a beautiful day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will be another day of concern, as a potent shortwave tracks off of the Rockies and towards the Upper Midwest. This wave will develop a seasonally strong low pressure system, progged to drag a strong cold front through the area. Ahead of this, we will have an environment favorable for organized convection that can become strong to severe. Uncertainty remains with regards to timing, which can lead to impacts on the overall severe threat. Guidance has been hinting at this moving through Friday evening/night. Ahead of that, we will see a mix of clouds/sun, which will help build instability. According to model soundings, we may have CAPE values upwards to 2000-3000+, with shear around 35-45 KTs. The shear is a little lower than we have seen with the recent events, but sufficient for organized convection. Although, this would lead me to believe that we will largely be dealing with a line of strong/severe convection, but some initial isolated-scattered storms cannot be ruled out. More details are to come, as more short term hi-res CAMs start rolling in over the next 24-36 hours. The SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for areas east of the Mississippi River. Continue to monitor the forecast for future updates. This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in, bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with areas north of Interstate 80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this timeframe. Although, confidence is lower on this now, as temperatures have trended upwards a few degrees since the last forecast package. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with mostly clear skies. While cooler, it should be a relatively pleasant weekend. Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main focus of this TAF issuance is on the shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. The first wave of showers and a couple lightning strikes are lifting northeastward and are expected to pass out of the TAF sites in the next couple hours. Another line of storms is expected to develop around or after 22Z, then traverse the TAF sites through about 04Z. Tried to adjust the timing a bit with the latest guidance to start/end the storm potential from west to east. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible with any storm that develops with visibilities possibly dropping lower in heavier precipitation. Erratic wind gusts may exceed 35-30kts as the main line of storms passes through the TAF sites. Conditions will improve from west to east after overnight into Thursday morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054. IL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Cousins  777 FXUS65 KCYS 151854 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday. - A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for many locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday. - A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 What a difference a day makes, the system that impacted the CWA yesterday will be a distant memory as it moves off to the east. A transient ridge will build, bringing blue skies and warmer temperatures. So, highs today will soar into the upper 50s west of the Laramie Range and 60s/70s to the east with lows Wednesday night dipping into the 40s across the region. The only headline for today will be the potential of a low end high wind event in our known wind prones across southeast Wyoming. The 700MB jet cranks up this morning, peaking around 50 knots. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager, so these winds may not mix all the way down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees and shows generally less than 40% chance of high winds. So, due to low confidence, the High Wind Watch will remain as is from 6AM this morning to 3PM this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will be on a slight downward trend. Onto Thursday, well, some changes are in-store and that beautiful bright light in the sky will become shrouded by clouds. First thing first, lets take a gander at the upper-levels, a positively tilted trough will slide east across the Intermountain West to our doorstep by Thursday night, this is the feature that will bring the changes that I briefly mentioned earlier. Ahead of this, with southwesterly flow aloft, highs will soar back to around 60 for many locations west of I-25 and the upper 60s to upper 70s east of the corridor. By Thursday afternoon through the nighttime hours that's when things will change. Embedded in this trough is a cold front that will dive southeast across the CWA, bringing increased chances precipitation and much colder temps. So, by Thursday afternoon precipitation will begin to enter our CWA across our northwest forecast zones. As we progress into the nighttime hours, the cold front continues to slide southeast, as it does, precipitation chances increase. The other thing of note, as upper-level flow turns northwesterly, a colder airmass will spread into our CWA. Taking a look at 700MB temps, they tank into the -12 to -14 degree C range by Friday morning, so expect low 20s to around 30 as you begin your day. During Thursday night, as temperature tank, precipitation will transition to snow. As a result, northwest of a line from Laramie to Chadron, many locations could wake up to a dusting to an inch of snow. I know chances of snow may excite you, but we can't forget about winds. Another potential high wind event along with elevated fire concerns late Thursday morning into afternoon hours. We will have the 700MB jet ramp up once again early Thursday morning to around 60 knots, primarily over the Laramie Range. With weak subsidence in place, these winds will have a hard time mixing down to the surface. With low probs, via in-house guidance, no headlines as of now. However, it appears that it will become breezy which will increase the fire weather threat as min RH values dip into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the I-25 corridor, stay tuned... && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The flow aloft will become westerly today, then turn southwest tonight. Confidence is high, due to a ridge of high pressure aloft, with scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet, and also moderate confidence in winds gusting to 40 knots at the Wyoming TAF sites until 01Z, then to 30 knots until 15Z and to 38 knots after 15Z Thursday. Winds expected to gust to 35 knots for the Nebraska TAFS until 02Z, and again to 28 knots after 15Z Thursday. A reduction in pressure gradient and decoupling will help reduce the winds overnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419- 430>433. High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday evening for WYZ104-109-110-113. High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106-110- 116-117. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...RZ LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...RUBIN  012 FXUS61 KGYX 151856 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A marginal chance for strong to severe thunderstorms has expanded across much of central and southern New Hampshire on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered showers move through the area this evening and overnight, with the chance for a few thunderstorms across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Warmer temps continue away from the coast, with another chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across central and southern parts of New Hampshire on Thursday. 3. Chances for showers continue on Friday with temperatures remaining above normal through Saturday. 4. A cold front brings higher rain chances Saturday night and Sunday and then cooler, drier, and breezy conditions to start out next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A backdoor cold front has stalled just west of Maine/New Hampshire border today, with a sharp temperature gradient from west to east. While much of New Hampshire has warmed into the mid to upper 70s, much of Maine and eastern New Hampshire remains in the 50s to low 60s this afternoon. The front makes some further progress inland through the overnight hours, expanding the coverage of fog and low clouds inland overnight. In addition to the front, remnant MCS systems continue to roll into Northern New England bringing showers and some scattered thunderstorms. A pop up thunderstorm remains possible across southwest New Hampshire this afternoon, and then there is another chance through the overnight hours as another remnant system from the Midwest passes through. Scattered showers are possible elsewhere overnight. Lows generally bottom out in the 40s to the east of the front, and 50s to the west of it. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The front drifts a bit back toward the east tomorrow, yielding highs in the 70s to low 80s across central and southern New Hampshire. 60s are expected in most other areas, while highs in the 50s look most likely along the coast and through central Maine. Areas of fog, drizzle, and low clouds are likely along the coast for much of the day. Another shortwave approaches from the west during the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the warm air mass across central and southern New Hampshire, this system will bring another round of potentially strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds and some hail will be the primary concern with these storms. The storms weaken as they move eastward into the marine layer, with showers expected across northern and eastern areas. The upper level low doesn't move offshore until Friday, which keeps the chance for some scattered showers ongoing through the overnight hours on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary on Friday, probably located somewhere across southern NH and into SW ME to start out while a 500mb shortwave approaches from the west. This will continue to support additional chances for showers through at least the morning and even a couple of thunderstorms with the NAM bringing more in the way of instability. A slight southward progression of the front is expected later in the day, which should lower precip chances and decrease clouds from north to south into Friday night. Highs are mostly in the 60s to lower 70s but could be cooler if the clouds or precip stay around longer. Also, some areas may see fog in the morning. Moisture increases late Friday night and through the day Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will be mainly in the low and upper levels with forecast soundings depicting a lot of dry air aloft. So, Saturday is expected to be dry during the day (except if the LL moisture is enough to support DZ near the coast), but the moist low levels could bring marine stratus and fog coastal areas, and this could linger near the coastline through Saturday. Fog and low stratus will also be possible farther inland early, but this should mix out fairly quickly. Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and cooler near the coast. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Wet weather then returns as rain overspreads the area from west to east Saturday evening and night and then continues for much of the day Sunday. Also, prior to the arrival of the rain, fog and stratus will probably come back along the coast and across portions of interior Maine and may be dense. As far as rainfall amounts, ensembles depict 0.25" to 0.50" of rain with higher totals closer to 0.75" possible. Models are in pretty good agreement with the frontal passage being either late in the day Sunday or Sunday night, and rain coming to an end as drier air moves in behind the front. This will bring mostly dry conditions outside of the mountains for the day Monday, but it will also be cooler and breezy. Highs look to be slightly below normal and mostly in the 40s. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday and then shifts south and east toward the middle of next week. This should bring a slight warming trend with dry conditions Tuesday and perhaps a chance of showers returning by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR to MVFR give way to IFR overnight at most terminals with lowering ceilings and areas of fog, along with scattered showers. LIFR is more likely along the coast tonight into Thursday. Gradual improvement is likely during the day on Thursday inland, while only some improvement to possibly MVFR is likely along the coast. Ceilings lower again Thursday night, with showers and possibly a thunderstorm across southern terminals. Outlook... Friday: IFR to LIFR possible in the morning due to fog and low stratus. There is a chance for showers through the day, but conditions may improve to MVFR or VFR in the afternoon. Friday night: Mainly VFR with coastal fog/stratus possible late. Saturday: IFR to LIFR restrictions possible due to marine fog and stratus at the coastal sites, but fog may also occur inland during the morning. Otherwise VFR for inland terminals. Saturday night-Sunday...Widespread restrictions and rain showers likely, and perhaps a storm or two, as a cold front crosses through. Sunday night: Conditions return to VFR, except MVFR remains possible at HIE. Monday: Mainly VFR with gusty northwest winds. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels through Thursday night as a frontal boundary remains stalled near the coast. Areas of fog remain likely through Thursday night. Conditions remain under SCA levels Friday, but fog is possible ahead of a weak boundary that will cross through switching winds to more NE later in the day. More fog and stratus are likely from early Saturday through Sunday as south to southeast winds and moisture increase ahead of a cold front that will also bring a round of showers through Saturday night on Sunday. SCA conditions are possible ahead of the front, but are more likely with the gusty west to northwest winds behind the front Sunday night and Monday. High pressure should then allow conditions to fall below SCA levels Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs  845 FXUS65 KRIW 151857 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy southwest winds are expected today, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Wind prone locations could see gusts up to 50 mph. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be mild across the area. - Snow chances (70-90%) increase this afternoon across west and northwest Wyoming. Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread morning lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 1PM/19Z radar imagery shows light snow showers over the Tetons, indicating that the first push of Pacific moisture, associated with the winter weather system, has arrived. Expect only rain across Jackson Valley and Star Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. Snowfall rates for the northwest mountains and the Wind River Mountains will increase by 6PM MDT today as the upper level trough begins to push into the Northern Rockies, with moderate to heavy snow expected. Anticipate winter travel conditions across Teton Pass, Togwotee Pass, and South Pass with snow and gusty 30 to 50 mph winds. As for the western valleys, temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing until after midnight tonight. This means that rain will chance over to snow after midnight as well. Expect only light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for the western valleys through Thursday night. As mentioned in the morning discussion, precipitation will spread east across the state during the day on Thursday as the potent cold front pushes east. Expect precipitation to begin as rain ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 50s. On Thursday, the cold front is expected to pass through sometime in the noon to 3PM timeframe for Johnson County and 3PM and 7PM timeframe elsewhere and quickly drop temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow due to the quick temperature drop during these timeframes. Also, widespread windy conditions are expected due to the tight temperature gradient both ahead and behind the front. Gusty 30 to 50 mph are forecast for most low elevations. Near and in Buffalo, northerly gusts of 60 mph are possible behind the front Thursday night. Although snow amounts for Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties are in the generally in the 1 to 5 inch range, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas due to wind and snow. The gusty 30 to 50 mph winds combined with light snow will no doubt cause reduced visibilities and periods of hazardous travel. Additionally, due to the strong temperature drop with the cold front, and thus increased frontogenesis, convective snow bands/snow squalls are possible across eastern Fremont, Johnson, and Natrona Counties along the front Thursday evening and overnight. This banding could also occur across eastern Sweetwater, including along I-80, but confidence is too low to include this area in the hazard. Any snow squall or convective snow band will cause sudden drops in visibility and create very hazardous travel conditions. Confidence remains very high (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or less) Friday morning as well. It is necessary to note that Winter Weather Advisories have also been issued for the Bighorns, Casper Mountain, and the Rattlesnake Mountains for the same reasons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions across nearly all terminals to start the TAF period. KJAC is the only exception as showers begin to move into the area leading to lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions. A nearing disturbance will bring rounds of precipitation to western terminals and increased winds to nearly all terminals this TAF period. KJAC as mentioned earlier will see showers through the afternoon into the evening. There may be some spotty showers after 02Z Thursday with another round of precipitation likely by 09Z. By this time temperatures should drop to near or below freezing leading to snow showers. Otherwise, winds increase for the start of the period at nearly all terminals with gusts of 20 to 35 knots possible through the evening. Winds decrease slightly after sunset with breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots persisting through the overnight. A cold front begins to enter the state Thursday morning which will bring precipitation chances to KCOD, KPNA, KBPI, and KJAC around the end of the TAF period. Winds will start to increase ahead of the frontal passage with many terminals seeing winds increase by around 15Z Thursday. Aside from increasing winds all terminals will likely see lowering ceilings around this time. Mountain obscuration will be persistent through the TAF period especially across western mountains with obscuration increasing by the end of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski