995 FXUS63 KGRB 151900 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain/storm arrives from the south later this afternoon and evening. One inch hail would be the main hazard with any stronger storms. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate ongoing areal flooding. Flash flooding would be possible in areas that have already received multiple inches of rainfall, or over areas that see training storms. - Minor to moderate flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several rivers. Expect many rivers to continue rising this week, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River where major flooding has been observed. - Widespread rain/storms will again be possible on Friday. Some storms could become strong or severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rain/storm chances today... Frontal boundary remains stalled out over southern Wisconsin as of early this afternoon, which will bring our next chances for rain and storms later this afternoon into this evening. Par for the course, the main concern will be how any additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding, especially in areas that are already vulnerable. Overall, we're looking at receiving an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF through tonight, with probabilistic guidance showing a 30 to 50% signal for 0.5" of rain over the southern Fox Valley. Reasonable high- end scenario (90 to 95th percentile) would bring amounts in excess of one inch from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore, though this would most likely occur with a slight northward shift of the boundary and training storms. If these amounts were to be realized, flash flood thresholds would likely be met over east- central Wisconsin where soils are already saturated and areal flooding is ongoing. Severe threat for this afternoon looks less distinguished than yesterday given unfavorable placement north of the front and stable easterly boundary layer flow. Elevated instability (300 to 500 J/kg MUCAPE) and appreciable deep-layer shear (50+ knots) sneak into our southern tier of counties late this afternoon, though the threat for any surface-based storms is low. Cannot rule out the possibility for an elevated hailer or two given elongated hodographs and decent lapse rates, though suspect that severe potential would be rather limited. Strong/severe storms late week... Following a brief lull in precip Thursday into Friday, 500 mb pattern then re-amplifies toward the end of the week. Robust trough approaches from the Intermountain West on Saturday as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains, bringing with them yet more chances for widespread heavy rain and strong or severe storms. Southerly flow regime would support decent moisture transport from an open Gulf, with a narrow corridor of 60 dewpoints possible along the leading edge of cold FROPA. Decent instability (~1,000 J/kg CAPE) would favor linear ascent along the front, resulting in likely upscale development into a QLCS storm mode Friday evening and overnight. Main source of uncertainty at this time centers around timing of the front, which currently looks to be late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Regardless, this system looks to be much more dynamic than what we've seen this week thus far, especially with the influence of a 50+ knot LLJ and favorable deep layer shear. Given an ample supply of Gulf moisture, heavy rain once again becomes a concern Friday into Saturday. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a widespread 30 to 50% chance for receiving 1 inch of rain, with a signal (10 to 30% chance) for exceeding 1.5". Locally higher amounts would be possible within convection. As such, flash flood potential would once again come into play Friday into Saturday, where WPC currently highlights most of the state in a marginal Day 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Muc colder air wraps in from the northwest on the back end of the departing surface low on Saturday, resulting in a probable transition from rain to snow across the far north. Probabilities for half an inch of snow currently stand at 20 to 40% mainly over Vilas, so little to no impacts are expected. Temperatures then drop off steeply by Saturday afternoon, bringing highs down into the 30s and 40s for most. High pressure then settles in over the CONUS late this weekend and into early next week, affording us a much needed dry spell. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low IFR/LIFR stratus has lingered over much of the forecast area as of early this afternoon, with patchy BR and reduced vsbys persisting over east-central Wisconsin. Some clearing has begun to work its way into north-central Wisconsin, with the potential for RHI to go VFR in the next hour or two. Rain/storm chances then arrive from the south late this afternoon, lasting through Thursday morning. A strong hail-producing storm or two cannot be ruled out during this time, though severe potential should be limited. This being said, have opted to include a PROB30 mention for -TSRA in the east-central TAFs for when thunder seems most likely. Vsbys may drop into IFR or LIFR territory within any heavier rain. Light winds and recent rainfall may result in areas of fog/low stratus development late tonight into early Thursday morning. Locally dense fog with vsbys below 1 SM will be possible, though was not confident enough to provide exact timing resolution as of yet. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Following another bout of heavy rain and storms yesterday, widespread flooding continues across portions of central to east- central Wisconsin where an areal Flood Warning remains in effect. Several roads remain closed, especially in areas that received between 3 and 6 inches of convectively-enhanced precip over the past 48 hours. Multiple rivers, namely the Wolf, Menominee, and Wisconsin Rivers, continue to read in minor to moderate flood stage, with the Menominee River now in major flood stage due to the additional influence of snow melt from the Upper Peninsula. Home evacuations are ongoing along the Wolf River. High flows and rising water levels have also resulted in several dams being compromised or overtopped. If you live near a river or stream, continue to monitor the latest hydro forecasts and Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Goodin HYDROLOGY......Goodin  116 FXUS63 KLSX 151900 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging winds and large hail through 11pm. - Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected again on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A series of shortwaves can be seen across the Great Plains in water vapor imagery, with southwesterly flow across the Middle Mississippi Valley ahead of these waves. An elongated fetch of warm, moist air is feeding into the region from the Gulf, aiding in forcing scattered showers and thunderstorms now across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Model and ACARS soundings out of KSTL suggest that this convection is elevated above an inversion at 800- 850 mb. Associated convective debris has been inhibiting surface heating so far, causing a dearth of instability along and south of the MO I-44/IL I-55 corridor this afternoon. Westward across western Missouri, insolation and mid-60s to low 70s dewpoints have yielded upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Here, an extensive area of cumulus can be seen in visible satellite imagery. Subtle leading waves within the southwesterly flow and an area of lift via jet dynamics will produce nebulous lift across portions of central and northeastern Missouri, as well as west-central Illinois through this afternoon into this evening. If enough surface heating is realized, then the cap will break, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms among the aforementioned instability and about 50 kts of effective shear. This is an environment favorable for organized updrafts, with some supercell structures possible. A limiting factor for robust supercells is slight veer-back-veer vertical wind profiles and/or weak low to mid-level flow noted in ACARS soundings and the KLSX VWP. A mostly straight hodograph with these attributes will lead to both left and right-moving updrafts that will tend to be shorter-lived as they interact and grow into localized clusters. If this round materializes, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, though about 20 kts of 0-1km shear and 200m2/s2 of low-level SRH means that there is a low chance for brief tornadoes. A solution that CAMs are increasingly supporting is that convection this afternoon and early evening remains mostly subdued, allowing for the atmosphere to remain undisturbed ahead of a cold front moving into the region this evening and the early overnight hours. Then, lift from the shortwave and upper-level jet will be greater, pairing with the cold front to force numerous updrafts along and immediately ahead of the front as it moves eastward. Initially, both the vertical wind and thermal profile will be similar as this afternoon, leading to discrete supercells. Confidence is high that these discrete storms will form west of the CWA, growing upscale into clusters and line segments as they interact with each other and the front thanks to deep layer shear vectors parallel to the boundary. These interactions and waning instability after sunset will lead to a weakening trend as the line segments move into the CWA. The primary threat with this round will be damaging wind gusts, with line segments surging northeastward carrying a tornado threat thanks to 30-40kts of 0-3km shear vectors oriented southwest to northeast. Once the convection and associated stratiform rain clears the CWA during the early morning hours, mainly dry conditions are expected through early Friday. Though, there is a low chance for convection across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois tomorrow afternoon. Our attention then turns to Friday as a highly-amplified trough ejects out into the Plains and sends a cold front into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, ensemble clusters have a median value of 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE, with deterministic models showing as much as 3-4,000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is progged to be 45-50 kts, creating a environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the Midwest. Given the lead time and forecast load prior to then, further details on thunderstorm threats, timing, and placement for Friday will wait until later updates. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 At daybreak Saturday morning, guidance consensus is that Friday's front will be deep into the Ohio Valley and clear of the CWA as the axis of the upper-level trough pivots eastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. With the core of this trough and the track of the associated surface low being well north-northeast of the region, the CWA will miss out on the core of the post-frontal airmass. Still, increasingly deep northwesterly flow will push cooler air into the CWA, pushing Saturday and Sunday's temperatures to at and just below climatological normals. The trough will quickly shift eastward early next week, allowing for low to mid-level ridging to build and southwesterly flow to return across the region. This favors warming temperatures, with ensembles clustering around seasonal normals starting Monday and then above normal by mid-week. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts due to thunderstorms are expected at all local terminals through the TAF period, but confidence in specifics on timing and magnitude of impacts remains low. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently heading toward KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS and will bring intermittent impacts to these terminals through the mid afternoon. Then, there is a medium chance for additional showers and thunderstorms at KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN during the mid afternoon and early evening. There is a low chance that these storms move into the vicinity of KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS later in the evening. However, if this round of storms does not materialize, then a line of broken thunderstorms is expected during the evening and overnight hours that will sweep across all local terminals. Any thunderstorm that directly impacts terminals will be capable of IFR visibilities, frequent lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Additional thunderstorms are expected Friday evening. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  531 FXUS63 KJKL 151901 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Low clouds have been gradually mixing out over the past few hours. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and satellite trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 A minor update has been sent out to update hourly temperatures in the very near term, and to update Sky grids through this afternoon based on latest model guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into the upper 30s to near 40 which could lead to another bought of patchy frost. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 18Z TAF issuance with low level clouds gradually diminishing/mixing out across the region. Southwest winds were generally in the 5 to 12KT range with gusts to near 20KT. These should persist for the first few hours of the period and then diminish near 00Z. Winds should again increase after sunrise on Thursday as a disturbance nears. This system will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds near the end of the period and isolated to scattered showers may occur for the more western locations, KSME, KIOB, and KSYM by the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP  891 FXUS61 KAKQ 151902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 302 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. However, the MUCH lower dew pts (generally in the 50s) which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today from late this afternoon into early evening, and again tomorrow will likely be the hottest temperatures of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast and into the lower 90s inland (with some localized mid 90s possible). Currently, inland temperatures are around 90F, and will likely rise another 1-3 degrees through 5 PM. Winds have been somewhat less than anticipated (so far), allowing some localized onshore flow at the coast, with temps in the 70s and 80s. SBY has already broken today's daily record high, and RIC has already tied the record. ORF may do so before the day is over if the winds switch back to the SW and increase, while the record appears unlikely at ECG. Additional records may be tied or broken on Thursday (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry again today, the Increased Fire Danger Statement continues into early evening for portions of VA (with high likelihood that another one will be issued for tomorrow (Thu). This is where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co- located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA (and could be expanded a bit farther SE for Thursday). The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS today and this will also likely be re-issued for Thursday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-35% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The highest PoPs will be across the north, but a few models have increased PoPs enough into SE VA for low-end chc PoPs there as well. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to low-end likely (~60%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have remained similar to last night's runs (50-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. However, ensemble probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 18z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots initially this aftn, but then shift to the SSW and may gust up to ~20 kt between 19-23Z, before dropping off again this evening. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early aftn Thursday, with gusts to ~20kt lasting through the remainder of the aftn. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub advisory conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend. - A strong cold front crosses the region on Sunday with potential for degraded marine conditions both ahead of and behind the frontal passage. Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the NE Gulf Coast with ridging extending well to the NE into the Atlantic. A weak lee trough is noted across inland areas with stronger low pressure extending from MI southwest into the central Plains. Winds locally are mainly from the S and SW 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Benign boating conditions will persist today through Saturday with briefly stronger winds possible in the evening/overnight periods. Latest guidance continues to show a stronger period of SW flow Thursday night with winds ~15 kt in the Ches Bay and 15-20 kt offshore. A few gusts may approach or briefly exceed SCA thresholds during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Given the marginal winds/seas, will hold off on any headlines as the period in question is 36 hours out. A stronger system approaches the region by early Sunday with increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front. Some showers and/or storms are possible along and ahead of the front with winds becoming NW behind the boundary. Decent cold advection behind the front will lead to continued unsettled conditions until the gradient relaxes on Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...MAM  126 FXUS65 KGJT 151902 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 102 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in various valleys tonight and tomorrow night before a widespread hard freeze sets in on Friday night. - After a brief mid-week warm up, cooler and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 WARM DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, WINDY THROUGH THURSDAY: Transient high pressure is building in and will promote warm days and cool nights today and tomorrow. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the southwest Colorado valleys this evening where sub-freezing temperatures are expected. As our next weather system approaches from the northwest tomorrow, the strengthening pressure gradient will promote gusty afternoon winds. Northeast Utah and northwest Colorado will see the strongest winds with valley gusts up to 50 mph. As a result, Wind Advisories are in effect tomorrow from 11 AM to 8 PM. LATE WEEK HARD FREEZE, LIGHT SNOW: Precipitation chances increase Thursday PM into Friday as the aformentioned low pressure system moves through. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon, with precipitation pushing southeast Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow levels drop on Friday as a strong cold front traverses the region. This will bring light snow to the northern and central mountains, with light snow possible in the valleys as well. As of now accumulations do not look impressive, but periods of winter travel conditions cannot be ruled out, especially at pass level. We will need moderate the heavy snowfall rates in the valleys in order to see accumulating snow on the warm pavement, which is only possible as the cold front is moving through. Perhaps most importantly, a hard freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to upper 20's. Freeze Watches have been issued as we gear up for this impactful event. LOOKING AHEAD: A ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend into early next week resulting in the return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ILS cigs are possible at KASE and KEGE through the evening. Several sites may see gusty winds this afternoon otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ001-002- 007-008. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ008-021>023. UT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ024-027. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for UTZ024. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  699 FXUS66 KSTO 151902 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1202 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick moving system Today-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow, followed by gusty north to east winds Thursday- early Friday. - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Thursday... A digging trough will continue to push southward through the Pacific Northwest and toward the Great Basin today into Thursday. Light rain/mountain snow showers remain possible from Highway 50 northward through early Thursday morning, but forecast accumulations continue to dwindle with highest expected totals of 0.1"-0.25" primarily along the Sierra/southern Cascades and Shasta County mountains. Otherwise, dry and cool weather is expected to prevail elsewhere today and Thursday. As the trough ejects eastward into Thursday, gusty north to east winds are expected to develop late this evening in the northern Sacramento Valley before spreading through the remainder of the Valley and Delta overnight into Thursday. Current NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph have increased to 40-60%, with highest chances favoring the central and southern Sacramento Valley along and west of Interstate 5 and north of Interstate 80. As a result, a Wind Advisory is now in effect for the Sacramento Valley and Delta from 5 am Thursday morning through 11 pm Thursday night. Strongest Valley wind gusts are anticipated through Thursday afternoon before gradually decreasing with downslope east- northeast wind gusts up to 45 mph along the Sierra then expected to develop Thursday evening into early Friday morning. ...Friday-Saturday... As the midweek system continues its eastward trek through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter into the early weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This ridging will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from Sacramento southward. ...Sunday into Next Week... Ensemble guidance continues to indicate another deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week, but notable timing differences between ensemble suites persist at the moment. In general, a return to active weather is anticipated Sunday into early next week, however; there is potential for precipitation onset to be delayed until Sunday evening/Monday morning. Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week. At this time, NBM probabilities for precipitation greater than 1" remain around 50-70% for the mountains/foothills and 30-50% across the Valley/Delta. Snow levels are currently forecast remain around 5500-6500 feet, with most accumulations remaining above 6000 feet. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions at TAF sites next 24 hours. A weak system will bring isolated light precipitation over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after through 12Z Thursday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Gusty northerly winds develop after 09Z-12Z Thursday with gusts of 25-35 kts in the Valley. Northeast to east wind gusts of 20-40 kts in the foothills and mountains. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$  868 FXUS63 KUNR 151903 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for Thursday. - Cold front moves through later Thursday, bringing rain/snow behind it. - Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over southeastern SD, with a weak surface trough stretching from northwest SD down into eastern Wyoming. Upper air analysis depicts shortwave over NE/KS region, upper low over the PAC NW, with near west/east flow over the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 60s to low 70s, with light winds. Recent satellite images show mid/high clouds expanding into the forecast area from the west. Elevated to near-critical fire weather parameters continue this afternoon, as warm and dry conditions persist. Thursday will see some areas reach critical fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front, as temperatures reach into the 70s and low 80s, with winds 15 to 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Cold front moves through from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into the evening, bringing gusty northwest winds and chances for rain/snow through mid-day Friday. Any accumulating snow amounts will be tricky given the time of year, and temperatures hanging near freezing for some areas. Highest potential for accumulating snowfall is expected in parts of northeastern Wyoming into the central and northern Black Hills, where NBM probability of 2" or more ranges between 30 to 70 percent. Widespread light QPF is expected, with the highest ranges (0.05" - 0.4") stretching from northeastern WY into northwestern SD. Current model runs show a small potential for low end Winter Weather Advisory headline for some areas Thursday night, but again chances are small. Main precipitation event moves out mid-day Friday, but some light precipitation could linger for some areas (generally Black Hills into southwest SD) into Saturday. After this system moves through, mostly dry conditions return late Saturday through middle of next week. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS through the weekend as well, resulting in a warming trend back to 10-20F above normal. Longer range models point to the potential for more active weather the latter half of next week, but will have to wait and see how model agreement works out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through 16/15z. After 16/15z, a cold front will enter northeastern WY/northwestern SD with gusty northwest winds behind it. Toward the end of the forecast period, MVFR/IFR conditions may develop north/west of KGCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Timing of the cold front as well as mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high- based showers may complicate things a bit by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near- critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Helgeson FIRE WEATHER...Dye  921 FXUS65 KVEF 151903 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1203 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing winds and decreasing temperatures through Friday. * Ridging returns over the weekend before another weather system brings unsettled weather to the region next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. The next weather system will be approaching from the north and begin to impact the area form north to south beginning late tonight and then into the Great Basin on Thursday. The two main impacts will be the wind and cooler temperatures. Southwest to westerly winds will average 15 to 25 mph with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range in most locations with some stronger gusts in the higher terrain. The wind advisory that is in effect looks in good shape. Temperatures will be fall to well below normal levels for mid April and only in the upper 60s in the Las Vegas Valley. The cooler temperatures will be short lived though. The strongest winds will be behind the cold front and down the Colorado River Valley late Thursnday night and on Friday with north gusts to 50 mph, with isolated-to-occasional gusts to 60 mph near Laughlin, Bullhead City, and Katherine Landing (50% chance). The only other item of note with this system is for some light precip (rain and snow) in eastern Lincoln County where snow levels will be crashing to under 5000 feet. Any accumulation should be less than an inch. A ridge will develop over the weekend and provide notable warming and much lighter winds. The ridge will be in place into Monday before the next system moves into the California coast. There is a lot of spread particularly with the timing of the next system and with these closed lows they tend to linger longer. At this point, south to southwest winds will develop ahead of the low by Monday afternoon and particularly on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...A period of light east to southeast winds is expected early this afternoon before turning south to southwest by mid-afternoon and becoming gusty. Occasional gusts to around 20 knots are expected through sunset, diminishing thereafter. Winds will remain breezy overnight, with sustained speeds of 8 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the southwest Thursday morning, with gusts to around 30 knots by the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with SCT to at times BKN skies. Bases are expected to remain above 10kft AGL, with any CIGs above 15kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...West to southwest winds will prevail in most areas through the afternoon, with widespread gusts of 15 to 25 knots likely. Winds will diminish after sunset except around KDAG where west winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue through the night. Occasional high clouds are possible at times, but VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  264 FXUS64 KJAN 151903 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through early next week (Tuesday)... Tonight through Friday: Southerly return flow will keep fog development on cards for the overnight period. 12Z HREF and REFS indicate good dense fog probs (40 to 60 percent) for areas that had fog issues early this morning. Based on continued stagnant and carbon copy of an environment, went ahead again with an HWO graphic for dense fog and thinking about potential for a Dense Fog Advisory in the southeast Pine Belt areas. Weekend into early next week (Saturday through next Tuesday): Mean ridging over the Gulf Coast into the southeast states will shunt an approaching front off to the northwest. A shortwave trough and front will drive some rain chances into the Highway 82 corridor into Tuesday, with the timing mainly in the afternoon to evening hours and low coverage (20 to 35 percent). Ridge will build back in the wake into Friday, with decent probability (30 to 60 percent) for high temperatures reaching 90 degrees. Amplifying longwave pattern will commence with a deep synoptic trough and cold front driving down Friday night into early Saturday. The low pressure system at the surface and aloft will be well north, into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and Canada. However, this will drive the cold front into the area late Saturday evening into Sunday. There will be enough convergence and deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) to bring in decent rain and storm coverage (50 to 70 percent). This will bring good beneficial rains, but less than an inch, which will not make a huge dent in the ongoing drought concerns. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms but confidence in severe storms is on the low side. Anomalous surface high around 1025mb will drive in much cooler and dry weather across the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Temps will be seasonably cool into late weekend and early next week (i.e. lows in the mid to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday, with highs generally in low to mid 70s through Tuesday). /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 15 kts with gusts up to 25kt through the afternoon. Winds will subside to 5 kts after 00Z Thursday. Another morning of dense fog will be possible between 10- 14Z Thursday across southern/southeastern sites, resulting in MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. As the dense fog dissipate, flight conditions will return to VFR throughout Thursday morning. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 86 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 61 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 66 85 67 88 / 10 20 10 0 Greenwood 66 85 66 89 / 0 20 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ056>058- 063>066-072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/SW  070 FXUS65 KBYZ 151904 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 104 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds along the western foothills today. - Storm system Tonight into Friday: Widespread rain transitioning to snow over the lower elevations Thursday. Generally light snow expected for the lower elevations and foothills. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday... A storm system will impact the region starting tonight lasting through Friday. Precipitation chances begin to enter South Central Montana tonight before spreading across the region throughout the day Thursday. Precipitation will be snow throughout the event for the mountains leading to moderate to heavy snowfall. The Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy mountains have a 40-80% chance of getting greater than 12 inches of snowfall. Lighter amounts are expected for the Bighorn mountains where there is a 50-90% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall. Lower elevations will see a precipitation transition, though there is still uncertainty in this. Rain tonight will transition to snow or a rain/snow mix tomorrow as temperatures fall behind a cold front. Temperatures across much of the region are expected to be too warm to accumulate snow. Where this transition will be most impactful will be for the Absaroka/Beartooth and Bighorn foothills. Here temperatures are expected to be cold enough to accumulate 1-3 inches of wet snow. Winds gusting into the 30s to mid 40s mph will create additional winter impacts from blowing snow while snow is falling. Precipitation chances (30-70%) will linger through the day Friday before exiting Friday night. Locations in the mountains and foothills have a high chance (60-100%) of getting over 0.25 inches of precipitation with low chances (<20%) for Rosebud County and locations to the east. Temperatures warm from the 30s and 40s F Thursday and Friday into the 60s and 70s by Sunday. Temperatures climb further early next week with widespread 70s and some 80s F by Tuesday. By the middle of next week, ensembles are in good agreement that an upper level trough will be impact the region bringing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. Torgerson .AVIATION... Southwest wind gusts of 40-50 kts are expected to continue through the afternoon across the western foothills (KLVM, K6S0), decreasing this evening. Scattered showers are expected to move in this afternoon ahead of the cold front this evening. A small chance of a thunderstorm exists for KLVM this afternoon. There's around a 25% chance for IFR conditions at KLVM with the initial front this evening and the rain/snow mix involved in that. Other sites have less than a 10% chance of IFR conditions with rain and a rain/snow mix overnight into the morning. Northwest winds 25-40 kts can be expected across the region with the front during the overnight and morning hours. TS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 037/046 026/048 029/060 035/070 042/077 045/079 047/073 57/J 45/J 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W LVM 028/040 021/044 023/055 030/065 037/072 041/074 043/068 98/J 57/J 30/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 24/W HDN 038/048 023/049 026/061 030/071 038/078 043/081 046/076 47/W 44/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 23/W MLS 040/051 023/043 023/055 029/068 039/076 043/078 048/074 23/W 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 4BQ 040/052 025/044 023/053 029/067 039/076 043/079 048/074 15/W 51/B 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W BHK 039/053 023/039 019/051 026/064 037/072 040/074 044/071 13/W 41/N 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W SHR 034/046 021/042 020/054 027/066 035/074 040/077 043/071 29/T 86/J 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 56-64>66. Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 65-66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 138. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 171. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 199. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 198. && $$ weather.gov/billings  694 FXUS63 KLMK 151907 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 307 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather is likely to continue today (~90% confidence) though clouds will increase overnight into Thursday morning. * Clouds thicken for the morning commute though rain chances though confidence is low for morning rain showers. (90% of remaining below 0.1" in rainfall). * Marginal severe storm threat for gusty winds Thursday afternoon, though confidence is low for storms on account of prolonged cloud cover and strong SE ridging. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Wednesday - Thursday ===== We are well above-normal today as highs soar into the mid to upper 80s in a few places. A few record highs could be broken with strong SW flow this afternoon. Otherwise, some high level cirrus clouds will stick around as a major trough remains to our north and west, along with most, if not all the rain this afternoon as well. There is plenty of surface instability and all that is needed is a trigger to initiate lift. Though a very small chance (<10%), an isolated storm is possible in our far northern IN counties, though most likely everyone remains dry and baking into the 80s. With a jet overhead, SW winds will increase some today, with gusts of 20-30 MPH this afternoon. Eventually, clouds increase and lower with height tonight allowing the surface to decouple from these higher winds above. Overnight, clouds continue to thicken and rain chances increase from west to east sometime after 7 AM EDT. A shortwave from the west will approach our CWA though with weakening instability, frontogenesis, and shear, this line of showers and storms will fall apart as it closes in. How much this line weakens depends on how much a high over the SE US relents, with latest probability CAM guidance keeping high end rainfall totals under a tenth by noon tomorrow (>90%). During the day and into the afternoon, clouds will stick around the whole CWA, acting as a lid to any convection that tries to initiate. Afternoon highs are a tad cooler in the mid to upper 70s from those clouds sticking around. The shortwave that moves through will keep a boundary draped over the central CWA. If this boundary can stall long enough with thinning clouds and increasing instability (increasing CAPE and dewpoints) from the SW in the afternoon and evening hours, convection could overwhelm the cap and initiate scattered showers and storms. A marginal risk for severe weather is possible for any afternoon storms with the main threat being gusty winds. Confidence is low in the severe threat given recent trends but is something we will monitor. The most limiting factor to storms or severe weather is the strength of the ridge at low to mid levels along with how much cloud cover can limit daytime heating. Still, some rainfall is likely, albeit small amounts with totals most likely remaining under 0.2" in (90%). A few places could see 0.5" in of rain if the SE ridge can weaken or move east slightly, forming more storms later in the evening (10%). SE high pressure keeps a warm SW flow for our area heading into the weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Brief Dry Period on Friday ===== Mostly dry and warm weather is expected on Friday as upper ridging briefly moves across the region. This upper ridge will amplify in response to an upstream shortwave ejecting out of the Mountain West region. Southwest flow will persist and promote a WAA regime, which will allow temps to warm well into the 80s by the afternoon, and potentially challenge some max temp records. By Friday night, the upper ridge will begin to shift east, with a LLJ out ahead of an associated cold front beginning to enter into the area from the west. This will provide an increase in moisture transport overnight, and perhaps some rain chances mainly west of I-65 for Friday night. ===== Showers and Storms Saturday ===== The upper trough is expected to amplify across the central US on Saturday, with a deepening low moving north of the Great Lakes and across southern Ontario. An extensive cold front will trail southward through the Midwest, which will be the focus for showers and storms to sweep through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, southwest gradient winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph, along with increasing cloud cover and approaching showers and storms. While it will be quite warm with temps reaching the upper 70s and low 80s, the cloud cover should somewhat limit heating, especially west of I- 65 where cloud cover will overspread the region earlier in the day. The warmest temps in the area will likely occur near the I-75 corridor due to a longer exposure to WAA and sunshine before the front and precip approaches. SPC maintains the 15% risk for Saturday mainly for I-64 and north, including the Louisville and Lexington metros. However, there remains some uncertainty in regards to severe storm potential, primarily due to questions revolving around how much instability we'll be able to realize. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 60- 70% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE, a 40-50% chance of exceeding 750 J/kg, and a 25-30% chance of exceeding 1000 J/kg. High end amounts (10% chance of exceedance) top out around 1200-1300 J/kg. There is more confidence on shear parameters given the LLJ overhead, and expect to see deep layer shear values 40-50kts, sufficient for well-organized storms. Shear profiles are mostly unidirectional, which will support linear convection with a damaging wind threat. Regardless, the frontal boundary will provide strong forcing in a favorable shear environment with at least some marginal instability expected, so confidence continues to increase on shower and storm potential. As of now, the highest chances for showers and storms will be from late morning through the entire afternoon ahead of the cold front. If the front is slower than expected, the severe risk could be greater given more time for diurnal heating to help destabilize our environment more. If it arrives quicker than expected, it will shut off our severe potential earlier in the day, leading to a potentially drier afternoon and evening. Confidence remains limited on FROPA timing, and may not gain much confidence until we get within the CAMs range. Regardless of when exactly the front will pass through, our sfc winds will veer from the warm SW flow to a cooler and drier WNW direction, especially by the late evening hours. CAA will take over, leading to temps to drop into the 40s overnight. ===== Seasonably Cool Sunday into Next Week ===== In a post-fronal regime by Sunday, expect seasonably cool temps and drier weather. This will likely continue into Monday as well due to sfc high pressure building across the region. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to remain in the 60s. Monday morning could be an opportunity for some frost development, especially in the Bluegrass region as morning lows dip into the 30s. The 100-member LREF suggests a 40-50% chance of favorable frost conditions. Sfc high pressure will shift east of the area on Tuesday, leading to a return to the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions today with high level clouds near 25 kft lingering into the overnight. Some SCT mid level clouds are passing through but these are expected to come and go throughout the evening. SW to S flow will dominate the whole period with current wind gusts of 20- 25 kts this afternoon before sunset. Gusts will die down overnight and clouds will thicken and lower by Thursday morning by 12Z. An approaching line of showers and storms will be moving in from the west but will quickly weaken and begin to dissipate as they approach our northwestern airports (HNB and SDF). Near and shortly after 15Z, a few isolated showers are possible that could drop ceilings to 3,500ft temporarily before quickly dissipating in the morning. Otherwise, everyone remains dry with OVC clouds Thursday morning with VFR conditions through the early afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...BKF  542 FXUS63 KGLD 151909 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 109 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%. Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated. While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow- moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. A period of breezy winds in wake of a low pressure system is forecast to lead to wind gusts around 25 knots through mid to late afternoon. Winds are currently from the northwest but are forecast to back to the southwest this evening and remaining that way through the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  130 FXUS61 KILN 151911 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening, primarily across West Central Ohio. 2) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid-level ridge will remain in place across the southeastern CONUS the rest of today as weak impulses travel over the ridge from a mid-level trough over the Plains states. As of this writing, convective initiation has occurred with the focus being associated with a remnant MCV over northeast Indiana. Forecast soundings show instability approaching 1500J and effective bulk shear in the 30-40knot range across our northern tier of counties. There is a cap in place south of I-70, similar to yesterday. Based on these factors, isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the MCV. With elongated (but straight) hodographs, main threats are damaging winds and large hail. CAMs remain uncertain of storm development behind this feature due to limited forcing. KEY MESSAGE 2) A more significant shortwave will move through the middle Ohio Valley Thursday. With the better forcing occurring in the morning, expect severe risk to be more limited in nature. Behind the wave, can't completely rule out scattered air mass showers and storms developing during the afternoon. Ridging will build north on Friday ahead of the main mid-level trough which will approach from the west. This main wave will bring a strong cold front through the area during the day on Saturday. Details remain uncertain, but there is a threat for severe storms ahead of the front on Saturday. This will, in part, depend on the level of instability which develops Saturday in the warm sector. Either way, strong wind fields aloft will likely bring some threat. Below normal temperatures will follow the front on Sunday and Monday. There still appears to be a frost risk Sunday night, particularly in sheltered locations. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will persist outside of convection today and tonight. Isolated storm coverage is possible at DAY and the Columbus terminals in the vicinity of an MCV as it moves across to the north. The rest of the terminals will likely remain under a cap through the evening and stay dry. A disturbance will bring a chance of showers and a few storms Thursday morning into the early afternoon. With present levels of uncertainty in both timing and intensity, have opted to keep as showers for this issuance. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...  088 FXUS61 KCTP 151912 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Tweaked timing on convection this evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. 2) Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. Morning convection helped to raise dewpoints slightly, but they have started to lower with deeper mixing in between shots of forcing. Gusty SWrly wind is topped by Wrly flow in mid levels. The forecast soundings/profiles do support CAPE rising to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening over the NW. Forcing from a short wave trough will arrive late in the day, and help flare some deep convection. Shear is close to 45KTs at BFD around 6 PM. Most num guid develops storms over nrn OH and slides it into Warren Co around 5 PM. Mid level flow of 60+ KTs, too. Fast moving storms with multi-cellular or even super- cellular mode are expected. Coverage is expected to increase through 8 or 9 PM before struggling to hold together and push too far S of I-80. An isolated storm or two could pop S of there, but we'll have lots of CINH to erase for that to happen. The storms should start to wane as we lose heating and the trough passes to the east late this evening/early tonight. The threat for severe wx should be done by 10 or 11 PM. A weak boundary will likely lay out W-E right thru the middle of the CWA as they die off. The wet areas will probably develop some fog overnight. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. South of the boundary mentioned above will be dry as the drought conditions beget more drought for the southern third of the CWA. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, the heat of Wed will be replicated. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels are not dry enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a mention more than here in the discussion. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. The main, wavy front will be laying out to our north for the next day and a half. Deep mixing here in the warm sector has already pushed temps well above normal, with 3 PM temps already near records in many spots and even higher than normal high temperatures in July. Expect this to repeat Thursday (tomorrow). The possibility of clouds and some morning fog across the nrn tier could hold them just a deg or two below what we see right now. The earlier boundary Additional showers/storms are expected Thurs in just about the same timing and location as this evening. The mid-level winds will not be as strong, though. So, the threat for severe weather is not as great nor as widespread as this evening - staying confined to the far NW. SPC MRGL is appropriate. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. Low pressure rolls to the east along the main front to our N Thursday night. Fri looks mainly dry and 5-10F cooler, but Saturday holds the next chc for SHRA/TSRA. The bigger change will come later in the weekend as a significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air. In fact, Monday night could hold a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down AOB 32F. Monday will be 10-12F colder than Sunday as the big high pressure area floats in from central Canada. Day 6-7 look warmer again as we get into a SW flow due to the high sliding rather quickly east. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Current satellite as of 18Z/2PM EDT outlines partly cloudy skies across W PA ahead of showers and thunderstorms in western Ohio approaching the forecast area. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to track eastward this afternoon/evening with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern half of the airspace (BFD/IPT/UNV) between 22Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday. Recent HREF/NBM/RAP model guidance continues to highlight BFD as the airfield under the gun for TSRA mentions, mainly between 22Z Wednesday and 02Z Thursday, which could bring lower visibility and ceilings in this timeframe. At this time, model guidance tends to keep everything above MVFR thresholds; however, cannot rule out brief drops towards MVFR/IFR thresholds in heavier thunderstorms this evening. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be most likely at BFD in the aforementioned timeframe, which could bring gusts above 40kts so radar trends will need to be monitored closer to the time for this threat. Further south, model guidance has trended back on precipitation mentions which lines up fairly well with recent GLAMP model guidance, thus have nixed mentions of SHRA/TSRA south of a IDI-UNV-HZL line in the 18Z TAF package. Between 06Z-12Z, TSRA threat decreases due to lack of instability; however, could continue to have some lingering SHRA at BFD which could bring MVFR ceilings/visibilities with relatively low (~20-30%) confidence. Have outlined this potential with a scattered low-level deck; however, there is a lower bound solution where this low-level deck trends slightly lower in future TAF packages. After 12Z, widespread VFR conditions are progged by the bulk of model guidance so have penciled these in with moderate-to-high (~60-80%) confidence through 18Z Thursday. Main aviation concern between 12Z-18Z Thursday will be the presence of breezy (20-25kt) northwesterly winds across all of central PA's airfields. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Beaty/Lambrech CLIMATE...Colbert  442 FXUS63 KFGF 151917 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average highs Thursday afternoon with near critical fire weather. - A narrow swath of snow is expected Thursday night/Friday morning but the exact location and ceiling of amounts remains uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Current split flow aloft begins to transition to SW flow through Thursday afternoon as a PNW trough deepens and moves east into the northern plains by Friday evening. Along with this troughing will be preceding seasonally strong thermal ridging (>98th percentile Thursday evening) which will push Thursday high temps to near records but coming up a few degrees short for most. This also brings near critical fire danger due to minimum RH's of 25 to 30 though winds less than 30 mph will temper the threat, more on this below. Behind the heat on Thursday comes a strong cold front with temps crashing from the 70s/80s to 30s/40s for Friday bringing a chance for snow to the area. Ridging returns for the weekend with highs slowly rebounding by Sunday into the 40s for all with 50s/60s likely for next week. - Thursday Heat/Fire Weather With anomalously strong thermal ridging across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota up into the Red Lakes expect the warmest day of the year so far. Highs will widely reach from 70 to 80 from Valley City to the Red Lakes and points south. A few may top 80 but that only looks to be about a 10% chance from Lisbon to Wadena and south. With the warm temps RH will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range (1pm to 8pm) but winds are only expected to be southerly at 20kts gusting 30kts at the worst during these low RH periods (noon to 5pm) meaning there is a short 4-5 hour temporal overlap and even smaller spatial overlap (really just the southern Red River Valley). Overall this keeps us short of Red Flag Criteria but to enough support near critical messaging. HDWI does have the area of concern reaching the 90th percentile and and ERC in the mid 20s. Aberdeen to our south will have a Red Flag Warning in effect for tomorrow with conditions becoming more of the near critical variety in our far south. Wouldn't rule out sites meeting Red Flag conditions for a short duration but at this point a RFW does not seem warranted with an SPS in effect for the MN counties of concern. Still recommend caution if burning. - Snow chances Later in the day on Thursday the troughing moves more directly overhead with decent FGEN from 850-700mb and favorable temperature profiles for snow. Using lessons learned from this winter and looking at the EC AIFS ens the favored corridor for any accumulating snow will be from south central ND into the northern Red River Valley and far northwest MN. Overall there is a 50% chance for a quarter inch and 30% for a half inch or more which certainly supports more than nuisance amounts of snow. Guidance suites vary significantly on whether they keep it snow vs rain though. HREF snow probs are as high as 50% for a narrow 30-50 mile wide swath of 3 or more inches, whereas the NBM and REFS have barely a 20% chance for even 1 inch. Which is right you may ask? Looking at the WPC super ensemble there are of outliers that of course have 4" or more (very low probability) but the majority at any given point are 0-2" with most likely getting only a few tenths (narrow band of heavy snow with light snow on either side). Therefore there is still considerable uncertainty on where the band set up and even how much of it falls as snow but there is high confidence a band of 0.2 to 0.4" of QPF will fall somewhere. This brings at least a 30% chance for winter impacts with the potential for a winter weather advisory to be warranted by sometime tomorrow. Later on in the period there is nothing that immediately grabs the attention for potential hazards but given the uncertainty that spring patterns can bring, with a range of hazards possible, it is unlikely to be truly quiet for an extended period of time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR through the period with a cold front working south into the area this evening/overnight. Winds veering slowly from the south to the the north then northeast by the end of the period. Winds south of the front remain south/SW and north/NE to the north of it. GFK and TVF will both be near the stalled front Thursday morning so wind directions are still relatively uncertain but tried to give a best guess at timing. Wind gusts on both sides of the front will be over 25kts Thursday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Maximum Temperatures: April 17: KFAR: 82/1987 KPKD: 79/1987 && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT CLIMATE...FGF  116 FXUS61 KLWX 151920 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... We are continuing to monitor the potential for a fire weather SPS across much of the area tomorrow. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. - 2) Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. Hot and dry conditions continue this afternoon and into tomorrow. Record high temperatures have already been broken at BWI with additional broken records possible across our climate sites. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon with only those in the Alleghenies staying in the 70s. Humidity will be on the low side, so heat indices are going to be the same (or lower) than air temperatures. Still, those who are sensitive to heat should take steps to avoid heat- related illnesses. Hot conditions continue Thursday with high temperatures similar to today. Precipitation chances increase as a cold front approaches the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are currently well aligned on a Saturday night into Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After several days of near- record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at this time. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front. Behind a strong cold front late in the weekend, much drier conditions and gusty northwest winds overspread the region. While precipitation is likely with the frontal passage Saturday night, it would take appreciable rainfall to diminish the dry conditions across the area. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the area as minimum RHs fall into the 20s. If appreciable rainfall does not occur this weekend, additional fire weather issues may emerge on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue through Saturday as primarily dry conditions are expected across the terminals. An isolated rain shower is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, although chances remain low at this time. Southwest winds today and Thursday shift to west and then northwest Friday. Winds gust 15 to 25 knots Thursday before diminishing Friday. South winds on Saturday shift to northwest on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Winds gust up to 15 knots on Saturday before increasing to 20 knots on Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during heavy precipitation Saturday night into Sunday as the front moves through the region. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8PM tonight as winds gust up to 20 knots. Wind diminish tonight and remain below SCA criteria through Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters Thursday night into Friday. SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. Fire weather SPSs will likely be needed Thursday, with coordination from local fire partners and surrounding NWS offices to hone in on areas that are most sensitive. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Currently, looks to be a higher chance of an SPS as sustained winds remain below Red Flag Warning criteria. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 15 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-539>541-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/KRR AVIATION...AVS MARINE...AVS/KRR  166 FXUS63 KILX 151921 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50-70% chance for scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Some of these storms could be severe with all hazards possible, including heavy rainfall. - There is another risk for severe storms late Friday evening through Saturday. - Much cooler weather returns this weekend. There is a low chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance areawide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave trough over the central Plains will pivot into western Iowa this evening and serve as one of the main forcing mechanisms for thunderstorm development across a good portion of the central US this evening, including central Illinois. Lingering rain showers will continue to impact parts of eastern and southeast Illinois this afternoon, with a lull in precipitation further west. Several shortwave impulses ahead of the main upper wave may bring periods of showers and storms working across the area from late afternoon into this evening with the latest CAMs showing isolated activity spreading in as early as 21Z/4 pm west of the Illinois River. Environmental conditions have been slow to improve due to widespread cloud cover from morning storms. RAP forecast analysis suggests SBCAPE will approach 1500 J/kg in western Illinois over the next few hours with deep layer shear up around 40 kts, which is sufficient for storm organization. Although the main surface front remains displaced off to our north, better forcing from the approaching wave should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Hodographs favor supercell/multicellular storm modes, posing a threat for all severe hazards. Although timing and coverage of late afternoon/early evening storms remains low, CAM output becomes more consistent later this evening as a linear MCS works through the area as the surface front nears. Although instability will wane some by then, the threat for damaging winds will still be a threat. Heavy rain is also a concern through tonight, especially over areas that picked up 1-2"+ this morning (along a Rushville to Bloomington line). Warm cloud depths, high PWATs, and the potential for repeating rounds of storms could lead to a localized flash flooding threat. The 15.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows pockets of 2"+ over parts of the area, though confidence in the exact location of these amounts remains low. A break from storms is expected on Thursday as large-scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper shortwave. However, the threat for more thunderstorms returns Friday evening into Saturday as a compact upper shortwave tracks through the Upper Mississippi Valley and sends a cold front through the area. The front looks to approach the Mississippi River Friday evening then work through central Illinois during the overnight hours. The highest risk for severe weather is currently expected just west of here where instability and shear will be strongest during a diurnally favorable time. However, sufficient CAPE/shear parameters through the overnight hours could still support the development of scattered severe storms. Temperatures turn much cooler by the weekend. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights look to dip down into the middle to upper 30s, which introduces the possibility for frost. Chances are lower Saturday night due to lingering cloud cover and breezier winds, with higher chances Sunday night when winds are lighter. Temperatures moderate by the middle parts of next week as upper ridging amplifies over the west-central US. Precipitation chances look minimal through much of next week with global models hinting at a wetter pattern setting up by the end of next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push across the central Illinois terminals through the TAF period. Confidence in timing and coverage of storms remains low, resulting in several periods of either TEMPO or PROB30 for TSRA through tonight. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southwest winds will continue through the period, gusting to 25 kt at times, shifting to the west Thursday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  371 FXUS62 KJAX 151923 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 323 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Near Record Warmth This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values Inland Each Day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday - Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F - Elevated wildfire risk Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues with stacked ridging over the region. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. Near record highs will be possible across inland locations this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds late tonight will prompt patchy inland fog development over portions of NE FL and SE GA, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-75. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday Warm and dry weather conditions will persist through the end of the week as high pressure extending over the region continues to dominate the weather pattern. High temperatures for the end of the week will reach up into the lower 90s and potentially reach record levels. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Daily patchy to dense fog developments are expected to form during the overnight and early morning hours each day, with a potential for very dense "super fog" to form in the vicinity of smoke and fires. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day. A predominantly dry cold front will move through the forecast area by the beginning of next week, with only a slight chance for showers occurring on Sunday. Onshore flow will be in place before midweek resulting in breezy onshore winds with minimal chances for diurnal isolated precipitation over northeast Florida. Initially above average max temps will drop down to be near and below the seasonal average next week, following the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the period. SE winds increase to around 10 kts as the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland this afternoon. Winds start to decrease after sunset and become near calm again around sunrise. Patchy morning fog will be possible at GNV. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the the weekend, with the flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. A mostly dry frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with only a few showers and storms. A surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions with the potential for Gale force gusts. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 63 80 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  212 FXUS61 KAKQ 151929 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 329 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. However, the MUCH lower dew pts (generally in the 50s) which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today from late this afternoon into early evening, and again tomorrow will likely be the hottest temperatures of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast and into the lower 90s inland (with some localized mid 90s possible). Currently, inland temperatures are around 90F, and will likely rise another 1-3 degrees through 5 PM. Winds have been somewhat less than anticipated (so far), allowing some localized onshore flow at the coast, with temps in the 70s and 80s. SBY has already broken today's daily record high, and RIC has already tied the record. ORF may do so before the day is over if the winds switch back to the SW and increase, while the record appears unlikely at ECG. Additional records may be tied or broken on Thursday (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry again today, the Increased Fire Danger Statement continues into early evening for portions of VA (with high likelihood that another one will be issued for tomorrow (Thu). This is where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co- located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA (and could be expanded a bit farther SE for Thursday). The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS today and this will also likely be re-issued for Thursday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-35% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday (as currently forecast), the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The highest PoPs will be across the north, but a few models have increased PoPs enough into SE VA for low-end chc PoPs there as well. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to low-end likely (~60%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have remained similar to last night's runs (50-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. However, ensemble probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 18z/15 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. SW winds average 5 to 10 knots initially this aftn, but then shift to the SSW and may gust up to ~20 kt between 19-23Z, before dropping off again this evening. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early aftn Thursday, with gusts to ~20kt lasting through the remainder of the aftn. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub advisory conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend. - A strong cold front crosses the region on Sunday with potential for degraded marine conditions both ahead of and behind the frontal passage. Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the NE Gulf Coast with ridging extending well to the NE into the Atlantic. A weak lee trough is noted across inland areas with stronger low pressure extending from MI southwest into the central Plains. Winds locally are mainly from the S and SW 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Benign boating conditions will persist today through Saturday with briefly stronger winds possible in the evening/overnight periods. Latest guidance continues to show a stronger period of SW flow Thursday night with winds ~15 kt in the Ches Bay and 15-20 kt offshore. A few gusts may approach or briefly exceed SCA thresholds during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Given the marginal winds/seas, will hold off on any headlines as the period in question is 36 hours out. A stronger system approaches the region by early Sunday with increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front. Some showers and/or storms are possible along and ahead of the front with winds becoming NW behind the boundary. Decent cold advection behind the front will lead to continued unsettled conditions until the gradient relaxes on Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...MAM  323 FXUS64 KOUN 151929 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 229 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late evening; severe storms are possible on Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general, are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest multi-cell and/or splitting storms. Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset, surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values (curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year, a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44. With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, as well. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thursday and Friday night will remain dry and breezy. The main concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to low-90's. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense cloud cover producing broken ceilings will keep a few of our terminals in central Oklahoma under periods of MVFR conditions through 00Z. A dryline was advancing across western Oklahoma which could produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon impacting all terminals east of the dryline before retreating westward after sundown. Terminals KWWR & KCSM will remain west of the dryline with no storm activity but have TEMPOS for TSRA across our remaining terminals through 01Z although will keep terminal KDUA through 06Z. Surface winds go light after 00Z although cannot rule out any outflow boundaries from potential storm activity affecting surface winds. A low-level jet will set up tonight generally across southeast Oklahoma which could produce low-level wind shear conditions after 06Z affecting only terminals KDUA and KSPS. Stratus may increase late tonight across southeast to central Oklahoma between 08-14Z with a higher potential for radiational fog development in western Oklahoma closer to the dryline. As a result all terminals east of the retreated dryline (all expect for KWWR) could reduce to MVFR or periods of IFR categories due to potential low ceilings and/or lowered visibilities. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 87 66 81 / 20 0 10 40 Hobart OK 54 90 64 88 / 10 0 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 61 92 66 87 / 30 0 10 20 Gage OK 47 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 56 85 66 82 / 20 0 0 60 Durant OK 65 86 66 82 / 70 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...68  016 FXUS65 KPSR 151929 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1229 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley. - After a brief stint of near and below normal temperatures over the next few days, readings will rebound, with widespread afternoon highs in the 90s expected by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current objective analysis reveals a very active pattern for the central and western tier of the CONUS will multiple disturbance embedded in the broader flow. Meanwhile for the Desert Southwest, rather benign weather will exist through at least the next couple of days as low-amplitude ridge overspreads the region. After yesterday, when we saw our first day with an average temperature below normal since the beginning of March, and only the 11th such day this year, temperatures will bounce back upwards closer to normal thanks to the warmer atmospheric profile. Lower desert highs this afternoon will hover in the middle to upper 80s, while higher elevations locales can expect values in the 70s to lower 80s. A potent Pacific trough, currently spinning over Southern British Columbia and Northern Washington, will work its way further to the south and east, traversing the the Intermountain West Thursday. At the same time, another weaker system will be developing west of the Baja Peninsula. Both of these features will have at least some minor influences on our weather on Thursday as the northern system begins to tighten our regional pressure gradient slightly, and the southern low throws some upper-level moisture toward the region. The expectation is that some marginal breeziness will develop for higher elevation spots and the Lower Colorado River Valley with peak gusts 20-25 mph, with some higher gusts for the typical windy spots of Southwestern Imperial County. The previously-mentioned moisture will yield only some high cloud cover, but that could have an impact on temperatures depending on how optically thick it becomes. Current NBM highs call for readings in the middle to upper 80s for the lower elevations, with perhaps a few spots reaching 90 degrees. However, it would not be surprising if temperatures underachieve due to the lower insolation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1732Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to follow diurnal tendencies across the Phoenix terminals with speeds generally aob 8 kts. Across SE CA, winds will favor a S-SE component through this afternoon before switching around to the W/SW this evening; expect speeds to mostly remain under 10 kts with extended periods of variability. Breezy conditions will pick up heading into tomorrow afternoon. SKC conditions will persist today before high clouds increase later tonight into tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  768 FXUS62 KRAH 151930 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 329 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 248 PM Wednesday... * Nothing appreciable. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 PM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Deep mixing on Thursday will promote a bit gustier sfc flow upwards of 20 kts or so in the afternoon. PWAT will remain below an inch, and given deep mixing, expect afternoon relative humidity to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. While the combined expected min RH and max gusts will be sub IFD criteria, the aforementioned fire risk due to anomalously dry fuels has prompted a request for another IFD for our entire CWA on Thursday (to be issued by the evening shift). A few CAMs are hinting at late night isolated showers possibly reaching the western/central Piedmont. However, limited moisture would only allow for trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of rain, if any at all. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty low. As such, fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend (isolated lightning on Sunday would be concerning) into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from now through Saturday, other than a brief mainly dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm SW flow to central NC. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and with plenty of sunshine, forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected from Thursday through Saturday, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Friday may be slightly cooler, particularly across the north where forecast highs are in the mid-to-upper-80s. This will depend on the degree of cloudiness and very light precipitation chances from the passage of a shortwave trough, which looks to have a surface reflection that briefly turns the low-level flow more WNW. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which based on low-level thicknesses looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days in a row of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC, which could produce some isolated to scattered showers from Saturday night into Sunday. While there is still a lot of uncertainty on timing of the frontal passage, the latest GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles have sped up, bringing it through in the morning which would give very little time for surface heating and instability to occur. This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means less than two tenths of an inch. So expect very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler early next week with highs in the mid-60s to 70 on Monday and lower-to-mid-70s on Tuesday. Sunday and Monday nights will be chilly with lows mostly in the upper-30s to lower-40s. Isolated mid-30s are on the table according to statistical guidance, particularly on Monday night which looks to have the best radiational cooling potential. So will need to watch for the threat of patchy frost. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 115 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period with light swly sfc flow diminishing overnight. Sswly sfc flow will pick back up on Thursday gusting upwards of 15 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April: KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett CLIMATE...rah  615 FXUS65 KSLC 151934 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 134 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures to the entire region. While any precipitation will change to snow across most valleys, any travel impacts will be minimal across the Wasatch Front. - Accumulating snow will impact the higher summits of the I-15 corridor from Scipio to Cedar City Thursday evening into Thursday night. - Strong northerly winds, with gusts up to 65 mph, will occur across lower Washington County near canyons Thursday night into Friday morning including towns such as Hurricane, La Verkin, Toquerville, Virgin and Shivwits. - Very cold nighttime temperatures will occur across all Utah valleys above 3000 feet through Saturday. Temperatures this cold can freeze sprinkler systems and cause widespread fruit orchard blossom death. Consider re-winterizing sprinkler systems to avoid property damage. && .DISCUSSION...A few things for the upcoming storm have increased toward high confidence. The first, it will get very cold behind this front across the entire region. The majority of the ensemble members have shifted toward a drier, quicker precipitation event for this cold front for the bulk of northern Utah. And finally, that given the strong cold air advection, a significant high wind event is increasing in probability for lower Washington County near Black Ridge Canyon and across the Beaver Dam Mountains. A strong cold front will shift across the region Thursday morning into Thursday evening. This front will reach the Salt Lake City area around 8 to 10 AM, which is significantly earlier than yestesrday's runs. The bulk of the guidance has also shifted toward a short period of precipitation with the front. The 13Z NBM suggests a less than 20% chance of 1 inch of snow across the Wasatch Front valley floors, around 50% for the benches. This earlier time also significantly reduces the potential for impact with this snow, given full insolation and warm surfaces. The northern mountains have also trended lower with snowfall potential, now with a less than 15% chance of seeing 9 inches or more in 24 hours. The one area where snowfall may become more impactful is the I-15 corridor from near Scipio to Cedar City, particularly the higher summits. The combination of northerly flow and orographics will support a period of snow from late afternoon into the first half of the overnight period Thursday. There is a 60% chance snowfall totals will exceed 2 inches by 3 AM Friday, particularly between Kanosh and Beaver. Those with travel plans on I-15 during this time should be prepared for winter driving conditions. No winter headlines are needed at this time. Will monitor the lake effect snow threat across Salt Lake and Tooele Counties Thursday night as the HREF shows around a 20% chance of more than 2 inches of snow across Erda, Stansbury Park and the far western Salt Lake Valley. With strong cold air advection, strong gap winds will occur near north-south canyons in lower Washington County after 9 PM Thursday through at least 6 AM Friday. There was a 90% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in the 12Z HREF in this area, including Toquerville, La Verkin, Hurricane, Virgin, and the area near the Beaver Dam Mountains including Shivwits. Issued a High Wind Watch for this area...to ensure this signal remains as robust in the next set of model runs. Very cold temperatures are a near certainty, with almost all areas above 3000 feet falling to below freezing overnight each night through at least Saturday. Freeze Warnings are in effect. Those who have turned their sprinkler systems on for the spring should consider draining and/or rewinterizing to prevent property damage. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty south to southwest winds will remain in place over the KSLC terminal through the evening hours, with around a 30% chance of a switch to west-northwest winds between 01 and 04Z this evening. South winds prevail overnight with increasing lower level clouds and a chance for light rain showers after 06Z. A cold front moves through the area tomorrow morning, bringing rain initially and a transition to snow late morning/ early afternoon that will bring MVFR to IFR conditions. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Breezy south to southwest winds prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the remainder of the day today, with peak gusts between 20 and 30kts. Low to mid-level cloud cover will increase across the area through the evening alongside increasing chances for rain showers across the northern terminals, especially after 03Z. Coverage of rain/snow will increase through the morning on Thursday as a cold front moves into the region. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130. Freeze Warning from 8 PM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ123. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Webber For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  792 FXUS63 KTOP 151937 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible (20-40%) mainly along and southeast of I-35 late this afternoon with hail and wind as primary threats. - A better setup for severe storms comes Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible, but plenty of uncertainty remains. - Much cooler this weekend with some frost/freeze potential, then moderating temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough axis is moving across the Central Plains this afternoon with VAD wind profilers showing a 40-60 kt speed max associated with this wave. Next trough is noted off the PNW coast. At the surface, low pressure sits near the MO River Valley with a dryline extending south from northeast through east central KS, followed by a weak cold front coming from north central KS. The scattering of this morning's cloud cover has allowed for the atmosphere ahead of the dryline to destabilize with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kts of effective bulk shear, per SPC mesoanalysis. A majority of the CAMs have isolated to scattered storms developing along the dryline by 21z mostly east of the forecast area, except perhaps areas southeast of I-35. The NAM Nest has consistently been slightly earlier and further west with initiation, probably because it is slower to bring the dry air east. Based on soundings from the RAP, HRRR, and RRFS, it appears that by the time better forcing arrives from the front and upper-level support, low levels dry out and become less supportive of thunderstorms. Whether or not we see any severe storms this afternoon will depend on whether all the ingredients can come together in time before the dryline pushes east. It's a short time window (3-5pm) for this to occur before storms are likely to be east of the area entirely. Thursday gives us a bit of a break in between the two systems. Winds quickly turn back to the south and strengthen later in the day and especially night as lee cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the next upper trough. This increase in the low-level wind field will help to advect moisture back into the area Thursday night into Friday. Before that happens, however, we do still have a dry air mass in place Thursday afternoon particularly towards central KS. While RH looks low, conditions appear too marginal to have confidence in Red Flag criteria and join our western neighbors in fire headlines. Although it is possible for wind gusts to 20-25mph to bring elevated fire danger to north central KS for a few hours. Heading into Friday, the next upper trough progresses across the Plains as well as the next sfc low and cold front. There are still some differences in timing, which will impact the exact locations for storms. In any case, instability and shear ahead of the front would be sufficient for severe storms. Shear vectors look to have some component parallel to the upper flow and/or the orientation of the sfc front, which would point more to a line of storms developing and growing quickly upscale. With all this in mind, could see some large hail with initial storms turning to more of a damaging wind threat, possibly with embedded tornadoes. Flooding could become a risk later if storms train over the same areas. Much cooler air comes in behind the front with highs dropping back to the upper 50s to low 60s for Saturday. Lows in the 30s Saturday and especially Sunday morning bring some concern for possible frost conditions, particularly north of I-70. Upper ridging and associated height rises across the central part of the country would then favor a warming trend into the early part of next week, alongside dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds have been scattering early this afternoon, and would expect some low-end VFR cumulus to persist in the first part of the period. Will continue to monitor for TS development as a weak cold front passes across the area, but this looks most likely to occur east of terminals and will keep TS out of TAFs as a result. Otherwise, expect gusty SW winds to gradually veer a bit ahead of the front and briefly turn westerly with fropa. As winds diminish this evening, they should back to the SW and remain there through Thursday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  359 FXUS63 KICT 151937 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening east-southeast KS. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend, warmup by next week. - Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline combined with increasing large-scale ascent immediately ahead an approaching shortwave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorm development by 2-4pm, generally east of a line extending from Eureka to Dexter. Strong effective deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kts combined with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg favors severe weather. However, strong forcing coupled with deep layer shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline should favor rapid storm mergers and a mostly messy storm mode, which should temper a higher-end severe threat. Still, could see a few supercells with large to very large hail, especially early on and/or if storms can remain a bit more discrete. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding are threats as well. While an isolated brief tornado can't be ruled out given the decent low-level buoyancy, unfavorable low-level shear and a messy storm mode should temper the overall tornado threat. Activity should exit southeast KS by 7-9 PM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector, as a potent upper trough and associated strong cold front/dryline combination approaches from the west. Strong instability combined with strong shear should support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. Storm mode and associated higher- end severe potential remains in question, as guidance has been speeding up the cold front, which would tend to support more of a messy storm mode, limiting the very large hail and tornado threat. Location and time...mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Hillsboro to Kingman between 2-11pm. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details the next few days. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another digging western CONUS trough next week along with returning moisture/instability, which could spell another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms across the region Wednesday through Friday of next week. Stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through Friday. The warmest days look to be Thursday and Friday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into late Friday through the weekend, model consensus continues to support a substantial cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with below average temperatures Saturday and even possible near freezing temperatures early Saturday and early Sunday over central Kansas. Rebounding temperatures back to above average levels are expected as we head into next week. FOG: With rich low-level moisture sloshing back northwest later tonight into a radiated-out airmass, thinking fog is possible later tonight into Thursday morning, generally south of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls to Newton to Kingman. Unsure of dense fog potential, so will let the evening-night shifts diagnose that further. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central KS sites through the end of the period, while MVFR cigs and vsbys may impact south central and southeast KS sites early Thursday morning. Stout westerly winds observed across central and south central KS early this afternoon are expected to continue into the early evening before dissipating and becoming southerly. To the southeast, introduced a TEMPO at CNU for TSRA during the 20-23Z timeframe per the latest short-term guidance. While skies are expected to remain mostly clear for central KS for a majority of the period, low-level moisture flowing in from the south is expected to result in lower cigs and fog across far southern and southeast KS. Still not entirely sure if this reaches ICT, so decided to hold to MVFR for this issuance. Confidence is higher in MVFR to near-IFR conditions at CNU where greater moisture is expected to reside through Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THURSDAY...Increasing southerly winds in concert with low humidity and warm temperatures should support another round of very high to extreme grassland fire danger Thursday, highest over central and north-central KS, where a fire weather watch will likely be issued. Later shifts may need to consider adding Rice, Reno counties as well. FRIDAY...Strong northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger Friday over central and north-central Kansas. MONDAY-TUESDAY...Increasing southerly winds may support more very high grassland fire danger over central and north-central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033- 047. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK FIRE WEATHER...ADK  929 FXUS63 KBIS 151938 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today, with highs this afternoon from the mid 60s to mid 70s. - Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border. A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible. Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are currently present across the state. Light rain will likely encroach into northwestern North Dakota this evening, with a 50 percent chance that KXWA will be impacted (covered using a PROB30 for now). KMOT could also see some light rain, though probabilities are pretty low at the moment. Precipitation may then pass across the state tonight and into Thursday morning near the International border. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow are all possible, though this wintry mix is not favored to impact any terminals. A cold front will drop from north to south across the state Thursday resulting in breezy conditions. A few hours of LLWS is possible ahead of the frontal boundary before winds switch to a westerly and then northwesterly direction, though confidence is only high enough to include in the KBIS TAF for now. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken  771 FXUS63 KDLH 151938 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Dry and gusty conditions are forecast Thursday afternoon leading to near-critical fire weather conditions for areas in Minnesota. - Rain and thunderstorms on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread dense fog continues this morning across much of the Northland. Most guidance is in good agreement that this fog should burn off through the morning, so we have our Dense Fog Advisory expiring at 15z. Another round of fog is possible tonight for Lake Superior, the MN Arrowhead, and NW WI. Today through Friday, we'll see prolific WAA shoot high temperatures well above normal into the 50s, 60s, and even low to mid 70s tomorrow. This will be for most of the area away from Lake Superior. Over the lake, that warm air mass should help encourage a lake breeze circulation keeping coastline areas much cooler. Have blended in some high-res guidance to adjust coastal temperatures down for today through Friday. Those very close to Lake Superior (within a couple miles) will likely struggle to get out of the high 30s to low 40s and may see more persistent fog. A low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for strong to isolated severe storms is along I-35 and east where the SPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal risk. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 600 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The primary threat will probably be severe hail from elevated storms, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. See previous discussion for snow concerns through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current Conditions/Today and Tonight: Early afternoon radar and and satellite imagery showed an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms across the arrowhead of Minnesota. These were located ahead of a compact little shortwave trough that was skirting along the MN/CA border. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expect dry conditions as this system exits to the east. Meanwhile, wind remain fairly light under the influence of a baggy pressure gradient, and that will set the stage for another night of low clouds and fog. Wednesday/Thursday: A couple of days of dry and warm weather are in store for the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could start out cloudy and foggy, so temperatures depend on how quickly we can clear out. On Thursday, an area of low pressure will organize across the High Plains, and this will bring southerly winds across the region. Current humidity forecast is around 30 to 35 percent, so will have to watch the trends for fire weather concerns. Otherwise expect spring-like weather with highs in the 60s to near 70, except along Lake Superior. Friday/Monday: This low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As of now, the most likely area for storms is along I-35 and east. A few storms could be strong to severe owing to the favorable deep layer shear and 1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability. The primary threat will probably be severe hail, but there is a wind threat given the unidirectional shear profile. In the wake of this front, expect much cooler temperatures as northwest wind ushers a return arctic air. Meanwhile the overall storm system will become better organized, and an area of deformation precipitation will develop Friday night into Saturday. Thermal profiles support a rain-to-snow transition. Any snow accumulation should be less than an inch of slushy wet snow on grassy surfaces. One would expect lesser snow amounts if this falls during the day on Saturday given the April sun angle and warm pavement temperatures. Snow will end Saturday night, but the cool air will last through the weekend with highs in the lower 40s Sunday and lower 50s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Skies will continue to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon. IFR/MVFR ceilings will give way to VFR conditions by around 20Z. Fog and low stratus will develop once again tonight except at BRD. Low ceilings are forecast as well. The low ceilings will be tied to the fog. If fog doesn't develop, skies should remain VFR. Low-level wind shear may develop after 16.21Z as a southerly jet passes over the region. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today should be mostly calm out on the lake, with a light northeast breeze this afternoon as a weak lake breeze circulation starts up. Thursday, stronger northeast winds are expected, with some afternoon gusts up to 20knots at the head of the lake. This period will need to be monitored for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory. Into Friday, northeast winds continue through the morning, and then become northwest through the afternoon. Gusts of 20-25knots are possible Friday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Areas of dense fog should burn off through this morning, but another round is expected overnight into Thursday. With very warm inland temperatures Thursday, fog could linger across Lake Superior through the day Thursday and into Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog is expected around Lake Superior tonight with otherwise clear skies. RH recovery will be good overnight with maximum RH values above 85%. A low pressure system will move into the northern Plains Thursday. Gusty southerly winds are forecast during the afternoon into the evening. Efficient mixing is forecast once the fog and low stratus burn off. Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 25 to 35 percent range for areas away from the influence of Lake Superior. Wind gusts of 20 to 28 mph are forecast over central and north-central Minnesota while weaker wind gusts are forecast over the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Near-critial fire weather conditions are anticipated. Warm and gusty conditions are forecast for Friday along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota east across northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over those areas during the afternoon and evening while a rain/snow mix is favored over central and north-central Minnesota. Precipitation will persist and advance eastward Friday night and Saturday morning as a rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts will vary from around a tenth of an inch over central and north- central Minnesota to an inch or more where thunderstorms occur in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Colder temperatures are forecast Saturday before the next warming trend begins Sunday. Dry and gusty conditions may return by Monday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ142. && $$ UPDATE...Levens / MPX DISCUSSION...NLy / MPX AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Huyck HYDROLOGY...Levens  099 FXUS63 KFSD 151938 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated strong to severe storm remains possible through 6 pm for portions of northwest Iowa. Quarter sized hail is the main threat. - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to a critical fire danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for south central and southeast South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A strong cold front moves through the area on Friday. Ahead of the front over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota, an isolated severe storm is possible. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of Highway 14 as precipitation exits the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Additional showers and thundershowers will be lifting through the Highway 20 corridor over the next few hours, but the better chance of strong to severe storms look to remain just south of the area. Still lower confidence on the potential for a storm at KSUX given the sporadic nature of any development, but still enough confidence to keep the PROB30 group in there for -TSRA, but adjusted the times slightly. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as any fog tonight should stay east of our area. Winds will be mainly light and variable this afternoon into tonight, but winds will be increasing into the day on Thursday. By the late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday, look for southerly gusts upwards of 20-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds remain light across the area this afternoon, so fire weather concerns are not expected into this evening. South- southwesterly winds will increase on Thursday as a storm system deepens off to our west. Relative humidity values look to drop as low as 15-20% across the area in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s. This dry air will combine with gusts of 25-30 mph to lead to critical fire weather conditions across a large part of the area. For this reason, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for south central and southeastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska to a Red Flag Warning. A little uncertainty remains on how far east the strongest winds make it, but enough confidence to issue a Fire Weather Watch for parts of southwest Minnesota into adjacent areas of northwest Iowa where RH values will drop to around 20-25%. Farther south to the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa, went with a Fire Weather Watch instead of a Red Flag Warning due to uncertainty regarding how much rain we see down there today. If we could get more of a steady rain develop and/or a couple of thunderstorms move through this afternoon, that may preclude a greater fire danger despite the low RH and breezy winds expected. Winds remain elevated and even increase on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and turns winds from the south to out of the northwest. Drier air will filter in behind this front, dropping RH values by Friday afternoon. This will lead to a primarily wind driven high to very high GFDI across the area; however colder temperatures moving in and cloud cover precludes a greater fire weather threat at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040- 050-052>071. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098. IA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IAZ001-012-020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet FIRE WEATHER...Samet  636 FXUS63 KJKL 151938 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 338 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Low clouds have been gradually mixing out over the past few hours. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and satellite trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 A minor update has been sent out to update hourly temperatures in the very near term, and to update Sky grids through this afternoon based on latest model guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 446 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Shortwave ridging this morning will give way to increasing southwest flow ahead of a mid-level disturbance that will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night, bringing with it increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and more importantly, badly needed rainfall. Increased fire danger is expected today, especially across southeastern Kentucky, from a combination of unseasonably warm (to hot) conditions, low humidity (generally in the 20 to 30 percent range), southwest breezes (gusts 15 to 20 mph), and dry fuels from the ongoing lack of sufficient wetting rains. Dry conditions continue into tonight, at least on ridgetops and upper slopes, but fortunately moderating conditions are expected to arrive from the west Thursday as a pair of passing disturbances brings showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first disturbance is a northern stream disturbance moving from the Central Plains through the northern Ohio River Valley and will be responsible for rain chances during the late morning through afternoon period, with a southern stream disturbance moving from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic providing a second round of showers and storms for the late afternoon through overnight period. At this time, it appears the better moisture and instability will accompany the second wave in the afternoon, with a marginal severe threat conditional on sufficient destabilization after the passage of the first disturbance and associated shower and cloud activity. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 18Z TAF issuance with low level clouds gradually diminishing/mixing out across the region. Southwest winds were generally in the 5 to 12KT range with gusts to near 20KT. These should persist for the first few hours of the period and then diminish near 00Z. Winds should again increase after sunrise on Thursday as a disturbance nears. This system will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds near the end of the period and isolated to scattered showers may occur for the more western locations, KSME, KIOB, and KSYM by the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP  885 FXUS63 KPAH 151941 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values today, and again Friday. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance) will move into the area late tonight into Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon (30-50% chance) into the early evening (20-30%), and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Broad scale ridging over much of the country has led to another day with highs in the upper 70s into the 80s with near record to record temperatures (highs or warm minimums) today. Breezy winds have gusted to 20-35mph out of the SSW today ahead of a storm system. Afternoon showers/storms are generally northwest of the coverage area, with a few showers reaching far northwestern portions of the Quad State. Low pressure in far southeast Nebraska tracks towards Lake Michigan tonight into early tomorrow. A decaying line of showers and storms moves through the Quad State late tonight into early Thursday. A few strong storms are possible but only the western edge of the CWA is in a marginal risk tonight. Only a few models like the FV3 show redevelopment of storms Thursday afternoon, so PoPs remain but have shifted lower to the 30-50% range. A marginal risk of severe weather covers the Quad State Thursday due to the possibility of afternoon storms developing on a residual boundary as lapse rates steepen, but residual boundaries have limited model support. Rainfall from tonight- Thursday generally ranges from a quarter to half an inch (higher totals more likely in the southwest, lower totals in the northeast). Breezy southerly winds return Friday with ridging expanding back northward. Temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s, potentially challenging records, and a 90 degree ob or two is possible. Eastern ridging finally breaks down as a strong cold front moves through sometime between Friday night and Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible, with a D4 slight risk clipping part of SW Indiana. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe threat. Another quarter to half inch of rain is forecast (higher totals favoring the NE and lower the SW), bringing the two event total to around a half inch to an inch, which would provide some but limited drought relief. Cooler and drier conditions surge into the area Sunday into early next week as a broad area of high pressure moves across the country. Highs lower to the 60s to lower 70s Sunday, then trend warmer through much of next week. Lows trend similarly, falling to near 40 over the weekend and then warming to the 50s by mid-week. Active weather returns late next week, with significant model uncertainty regarding multiple low pressure systems. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A few showers will move near the western/northwestern edges of the CWA this afternoon. Cigs lower into the evening through the night. MVFR conditions are possible late tonight with showers and thunderstorms (with better chances of thunder in the south), as are MVFR vsbys. Southwesterly breezes, gusting to 20-24kts today, lower to around 10kts tonight/tomorrow. A lull in shower activity is expected during the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL  531 FXUS65 KPIH 151942 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 142 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will continue into the evening, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Warning has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Thursday and Friday mornings with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely by Friday morning. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Drastic pattern change is underway as a cold late-winter system descends on East Idaho. Satellite water vapor imagery shows closed low off BC Canada coast with moisture plume streaming through Idaho. Shortwave axis visible draped along PacNW coast. Radar shows moisture slowly filling in across East Idaho, but surface dew point depressions remain steep outside of the higher elevation areas, so precipitation may take some time to develop for the Snake Plain and lower elevations. Lastly, winds remain gusty across portions of the Upper Snake Plain region, and a WIND ADVISORY remains in place into the evening. Focus for precipitation through midnight remains across the Central Mountains and Island Park region. Afternoon snow levels around 6500 ft in the Central Mountains rise to around 7500 ft across the southern highlands, but rapidly fall behind strong cold front driving through the region overnight. This brings snow down to valley floors for most areas by Thursday morning. Snow totals still remain strong enough over high elevations to produce mild travel impacts above 6500 ft, so will maintain the current WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY as well. Snow showers become more plentiful during the day Thursday, even at lower elevations, with highs expected to top out in the mid 40s for most locations. Winds remain gusty behind the front, but should remain below Advisory criteria. Additionally, high- res models continue support for 2nd frontal feature/convergence zone late Thursday that will likely help produce the best chance for accumulating snow in the Snake Plain. Road temperatures remain quite warm and accumulations remain below 2" even across the Upper Plain, so at this time we expect minimal travel impacts, and will hold off on additional headlines for now. Potentially one of the biggest impacts will be the cold temperatures following the cold front, beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, especially after prolonged warmer than normal period. Overnight lows throughout the Snake Plain range 28-32 degrees, supportive of a FREEZE WARNING. Given the even colder temperatures for Thursday night, have already upgraded the FREEZE WATCH to a FREEZE WARNING. For the Thursday night/Friday morning lows, the lows are supportive of a HARD FREEZE, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s. Given the early growing season this year, these extremely low temperatures are expected to be particularly impactful. We believe that additional headlines will be necessary even into Saturday and potentially Sunday morning, but will address with upcoming packages. Looking into the weekend and early next week, dry conditions are expected with a warming trend into early next week. Overnight lows do rise back above freezing again by Monday morning. Ensemble means support another trough shifting into the western US by mid week next week. Precipitation chances return as early as Tuesday with more confidence by Wednesday. There is quite a bit of spread among the ensembles especially by Wednesday with respect to progression of the trough through the west, so expect some fluctuation in the forecast until confidence increases. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Multiple round of rain and/or snow is expected through tomorrow. We could see a few thunderstorms during this period, but not enough to include any type of -TSRA, -TSSN, or VCTS for any TAFs at the moment. Expect during periods of precipitation to drop into MVFR/IFR conditions. There will be gusty winds associated with the storm moving through the area. Gusts of 15-30kt could impact TAF sites, with the strongest at PIH and IDA. For SUN, there is a very, VERY small window tomorrow morning for the winds to switch to south once they go northerly tonight, but this pattern typically sees a more dominant West to southwest wind coming over and through the mountains. We went this route vs trying to include any window of southerly winds later Thursday morning and early afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ051>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...Keyes  579 FXUS62 KMLB 151942 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 342 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Warming trend will bring near record highs in the low 90s across the interior Friday and into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns early next week as a weak front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. - A period of windy onshore flow Monday into Tuesday behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thu-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal near 80/low 80s at the coast Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Mon-Wed...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers and a noticeable cool down. Equally as noticeable will be the strong/gusty onshore (NE) winds that develop behind the front. Sustained 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast to overspread the area from north to south late Sun night and Mon, gradually decreasing Tue. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Temperatures drop back to more seasonal norms behind the front with even slightly below normal high temps on Tue. Then warming back up fairly quickly beginning Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic currently north of the area gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high retreats south and east over the weekend ahead of an approaching cool front which is forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Wind flow gradually veers more southeast and weakens the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light synoptic/ background SSW-WSW flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift onshore (SE-ESE) each afternoon/eve associated with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds behind the sea breeze will be 8-12 knots. Seas 3-4 FT tonight/Thursday and 2-3 FT Friday through the weekend. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night behind the front with Small Craft Advisories likely for NE winds 20-25 knots spreading across the waters and seas rapidly building 7-9 FT early Mon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure continues over the Florida peninsula through the TAF period. Earlier BKN035-040 continue to lift through the afternoon. VFR conditions prevailing, though will be watching the possibility of patchy fog at terminals along and north of I-4 (MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE/DAB). At this time, confidence in timing or location of any fog is too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, onshore flow continues. Breezy E winds along the coast early this afternoon diminish into this evening. Wind gusts up to 20 kts possible along the Treasure Coast over the next few hours. Then, lighter winds overnight, becoming more SE. E winds return around 8-12 kts Thursday morning and into the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep layer high pressure - at the surface and aloft - will maintain dry conditions along with a warming trend into the weekend. Prevailing daytime winds will be east to southeast as the low level ridge axis settles across Central Florida by Friday. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph coast. Nighttime winds will become light and variable. No min RH concerns along the coast but inland min RHs will fall to 30-35% Thu from Orlando north and west, expanding to include more of the interior on Friday. Given the relatively light winds, Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Afternoon dispersion values Fair to Generally Good Thursday and Friday, but pockets of Poor dispersion may exist over portions of Lake county. Warming trend will bring above normal highs into the lower 90s interior Friday through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Leahy  766 FXUS63 KABR 151944 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues through Thursday. Temperatures today top out in the 70s (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday over central and northeastern South Dakota as well as parts of north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for west central Minnesota as well. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation starts out as rain Thursday night before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. Overall not a lot of moisture with this system, and only a couple tenths of snow accumulation on grassy surfaces is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Warming trend continues today with highs widely on track to hit the mid-70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Other than some fair weather cumulus over eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota, clear skies and light winds will continue through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Temperatures increase further on Thursday, with 850mb temperatures of 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs over much of the area (excluding north central South Dakota due to a cold front discussed below) reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Despite these highs 20-25 degrees above normal, no climate sites are expected to hit record highs. Southerly winds are expected to increase Thursday as well due to the incoming low pressure center and resultant tightening of the pressure gradient. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected across the forecast area by the afternoon. Due to the widespread warmth dropping humidity to 15 to 25 percent as well as the gusty winds, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning across central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as part of north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for Big Stone and Traverse counties in western Minnesota, as confidence in reaching Red Flag criteria is slightly lower over that area. A longwave trough will move east over the next couple of days, supporting a low pressure center and a cold front influencing the Northern Great Plains beginning Thursday. In the afternoon and evening on Thursday, the cold front will begin moving across the forecast area, which is an acceleration in timing from previous forecasts. Precipitation is expected to develop slightly behind the front, with the lift coming from divergence aloft in the exit region of the trough. At the moment, precipitation chances remain mainly over north central South Dakota. Ensemble probability of reaching a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent extends in a gradient across the forecast area, up to 60 percent in Corson County and decreasing moving to the southeast. As cold air settles in behind frontal passage, a transition from the initial precipitation type of rain will transition to snow. The majority of the precipitation is expected to fall before the warm nose cools below freezing and allows for snow to reach the surface. Therefore, only a couple of tenths of an inch of snow are expected at the most. Ground temperatures will be quite warm still, so expecting most of the snow to melt on impact, with the possible exception of grassy surfaces. Post-frontal northerly winds will also pick up, gusting to 30-40 miles per hour across the area Friday. Similar speeds will be present Saturday over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, with a slight dip over central and north central South Dakota (gusts topping out at 30 miles per hour in that area). NBM probabilities have backed down a bit, now sitting at less than a 20 percent chance of reaching Wind Advisory criteria both afternoons. Upper-level support Friday and Saturday afternoons will remain below 35-40 knots, so concern for any sort of Wind Advisory potential is waning. Looking ahead to next week, an upper-level ridge will build into the area, heralding the return of above normal temperatures to the Northern Great Plains. Current ensemble means put highs in the mid to upper 70s while the ridge is overhead, roughly 10-20 degrees above normal. Ensemble cluster then show a fair degree of confidence on another trough developing over the western CONUS, placing the Aberdeen forecast area into the left exit region and possibly bringing chances for precipitation. There is still quite a large timing disparity on when exactly this system is set to arrive, so sometime mid-week is the best depiction at this time range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with minimal cloud cover expected bar some possible scattered high clouds and some scattered cumulus over eastern South Dakota. Westerly winds will turn southerly overnight tonight due to influence from a low pressure center to the west. Winds increase Thursday morning into afternoon, reaching gusts up to 30 knots by the end of the TAF period. Beyond that point, a front will move through beginning Thursday evening and overnight, veering winds to the north and bringing some precipitation behind it Thursday night. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045- 048-051. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...BC  807 FXUS63 KEAX 151950 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with the best chances south and east of the I-35 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. - Another round of severe weather is anticipated on Friday afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. Confidence is higher than average that widespread coverage of storms is expected. Confidence is lower on convective mode, which will have significant influence on what severe weather hazards will occur with the storms. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts. - Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday night may approach the freezing mark in northern Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern in the short term is severe-weather potential this afternoon/evening. A weak surface low in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with an attendant cold front extending southward through eastern Kansas will shift eastward/northeastward this evening. Prompted by large-scale lift from an approaching perturbation this afternoon, convection is expected to initiate rapidly through late this afternoon (storms already developing in southeast Kansas as of 2 pm). Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have been consistently developing initially discrete convection along the front roughly near the I-35 corridor, growing quickly upscale into clusters/lines as the storms progress quickly eastward/northeastward through early evening. Large hail will be the primary threat with discrete storms, with wind damage becoming more possible with time as storms grow upscale. Wind profiles are generally favorable for splitting supercells (confirming the large hail threat), but mean mid/upper flow is largely parallel to the approaching front. Storm interactions should be frequent as more and more cells develop, so the process of congealing may be quite fast. This would likely mute the tornado threat, but the risk is not negligible. Low-level shear is more than adequate for tornadoes, and LCLs lower from west-to-east across the forecast area (and are sufficiently low everywhere). The good news is that the storms will be progressive, so the flooding risk is low today. The storms should generally be out of the forecast area by 9 or 10 pm, with the rest of the night expected to be dry. With the Pacific origins of today's weather system, Thursday should continue the streak of warm days (highs mainly in the 80s), with shortwave ridging keeping things dry (continuing through Thursday night). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern is the severe-weather episode expected on Friday afternoon/evening. A deepening longwave trough in the western U.S. will slowly approach the northern/central Plains Friday. A predecessor vorticity maximum will eject northeastward into the Missouri and Mississippi Valley regions Friday afternoon/evening, in advance of a strong cold front moving southeastward from the northern into the central Plains. Substantial large-scale lift will be present (via warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection) as the cold front approaches north/west portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Storms will rapidly develop during the afternoon along the front. Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles will be very favorable for severe storms, but the extensive nature of the large-scale lift and the largely parallel upper flow to the surging front suggests storm interactions will be rapid, resulting in quick upscale growth into an extensive line of storms with time. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible as the line develops/matures, with large hail and isolated tornadoes the main threats during the initial stages of convective development Friday afternoon. Confidence is rather high that the entire region will see storms, with potentially numerous reports of severe weather, but given the rapid upscale growth expected...the messy resultant nature of the convection poses uncertainty with the magnitude of the severe risk. If storms can maintain a discrete nature for a sufficiently long period of time, an isolated strong tornado could occur given the highly favorable environment. Flash flooding is also more of a concern on Friday, as multiple rounds of storms may develop during the afternoon/evening, especially if storms end up training on the south side of the developing mesoscale convective system (favoring southern portions of the forecast area). With recent rains across the area, we remain rather vulnerable for instances of flooding, particularly with small streams/creeks and in urban areas. Precipitable water values Friday afternoon will be unseasonably high (generally 1.3-1.6 inches), and training convection will be possible during the evening as the low-level jet increases, impinging on the southeastward-progressing cold front. As the cold upper trough moves into the central Plains by Saturday, strong cold advection upstream of the front will bring much colder temperatures to the region by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 20-30 degrees colder than Friday, with lows Saturday night approaching the freezing mark in northern portions of the forecast area as a strong surface high approaches. Not out of the question we have to issue a few frost/freeze headlines for that period. Warmer temperatures will commence quickly, with Sunday warming a good ten degrees with subsequent warming on Monday and Tuesday to temperatures a good 10-15+ degrees above average. The next chance for precipitation comes by the middle of next week, as long-range models are showing another active period developing for the close of April. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Main aviation concern this afternoon is convection, with storms expected to develop near the KC terminals around/after 20z. Think best timing for storms at MCI/MKC/IXD will be in the 20-22z time frame, but it still remains possible (around 50 percent chance) that storms develop mostly east of the TAF sites with no impacts at the terminals. On the other hand, if a storm develops and affects a terminal, impacts could be significant, with IFR/LIFR VSBYs and strong/erratic wind gusts in torrential rain and frequent lightning. Storms should move east of the terminals by 23z, with VFR thereafter. Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt are expected this afternoon, gradually veering to west and northwest this evening, before diminishing and becoming light/variable after 06z. A steady south breeze should develop after 15z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMS LONG TERM...CMS AVIATION...CMS  056 FXUS63 KMQT 151950 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through Thursday night. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday evening into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected, with up to 30% probability of exceeding an inch, best chances over the south half. - Becoming much cooler this weekend, which will slow snowmelt. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Anomalous midlevel ridging exists over the eastern third of the CONUS, while a deep, compact trough is over the Pacific Northwest. Between these features, a compact shortwave trough is shifting northeastward across the central Plains. At lower levels, a diffuse boundary runs from low pressure near Omaha to another low in northern Lower Michigan. An area of convection is developing along this boundary in the central Plains, which should move northeastward into this evening. Most of this activity will remain south of the area, although a few showers in the stratiform portion of the convective complex could brush the southeast half overnight, with no impactful precipitation amounts expected. Weak high pressure over Lake Superior is resulting in onshore flow, keeping northern areas cool. Meanwhile, some of the low clouds have cleared out over the interior west, which has allowed temps to spike to 55-60F. Tonight, guidance suggests fog redevelops, with highest confidence in areas where dewpoint depressions remain low this afternoon. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. Thursday, there is better confidence in earlier low clouds clearing in roughly the western half, with shortwave ridging building in. As the airmass remains anomalously warm (850 mb temps around 10C or +1 to +2 sigma), unseasonable warmth will occur where clouds clear and deeper mixing happens, with a high chance of temps in the 70s and a low chance of approaching 80 in some spots. Meanwhile in the east, clouds hanging on longer and potential for onshore flow will keep things significantly cooler, with areas along the lakeshore likely remaining below 50F. Friday, ridging builds ahead of the Pac NW trough shifting across the northern Plains. A strong capping inversion should keep things dry until the front arrives and crosses the UP from west to east roughly 00-06Z Sat. Another very warm day is expected in the west half, while it will be a bit cooler with flow off Lake Michigan in the east half. GFS/NAM indicate elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg with strong deep layer shear, so a few stronger storms resulting in hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Anomalous moisture with PWATs of 1-1.25 inches will be in place, but the quick movement of the trough is expected to limit QPF to 0.25-0.75" in most areas. However, potential for a wave to develop along the front would prolong rainfall a bit, which could result in higher precip amounts (20-30% chance of exceeding an inch in southern locations). A sharply colder airmass will move in for the weekend with temperatures back below normal. Some light snow is possible Saturday morning but is not expected to be impactful. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog and low ceilings will continue to be the main aviation concern across the region over the next day with generally light winds and ample moisture from snowmelt present. For the rest of the evening, we will see MVFR to IFR conditions at all terminals. After sunset, dense fog will develop and conditions will deteriorate back to LIFR. It is anticipated (greater than 80% chance) that the visiblity will be below airport minimums at all three terminals during the overnight and early morning hours. After sunrise Thursday morning, conditions will improve and the fog will thin out, with conditions expected to improve to MVFR by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Areas of dense fog continue through at least tonight into Thursday morning. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, with a 30-50% chance for brief gales over the eastern lake Friday evening. With stable southerly flow, the highest winds will be observed on high observing platforms. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through late Friday into Friday night with 0.25-0.75 inches expected for most areas, and a 20-30% of exceeding an inch in the southern UP. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Waters remain high in the southern UP where recent heavy rains and snowmelt contributed to flooding of low-lying areas and some rivers. Rivers will continue to rise in portions of the northern UP due to continued snowmelt and additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night for all but the far western UP, and may be extended through Friday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for MIZ001>007-009>014-084- 085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...RM MARINE...LC/Thompson HYDROLOGY...  214 FXUS65 KBOU 151953 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Flow aloft backs to the southwest tonight and increases Thursday ahead of an approaching upper level trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures warm back up into the 70s across northeast Colorado and relative humidities fall into the teens. This will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-70. A surface low develops over northeast Colorado and into Wyoming in response to the southwest flow aloft. The main upper level trough tracks eastward across the Northern Rockies on Thursday and into the Northern Plains on Friday. Additionally, a shortwave trough will travel southeast across the Great Basin on Thursday and the Central Rockies on Friday. The cold front associated with this system will dive south across Colorado Thursday night and early Friday.  Much colder air moves into the area with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s across northeast Colorado. Like most systems this season, it will be somewhat moisture starved. Snow moves into the mountains late Thursday night and early Friday morning and then progresses eastward across the urban corridor and eastern plains. Snowfall amounts are expected to be light, less than 3 inches across the lower elevations and 2 to 7 inches over the mountains. Since most of the snow is expected to fall during the daytime hours, roads will mainly just be wet. Roads in the mountains may become snow- covered in places, mainly over the mountain passes. A possible greater impact than the snow will be cold temperatures. The temperatures will not be extremely cold for this time of year, but it has been about 5 weeks since we last saw air this cold. Since then many irrigation systems have been turned on and perennials have bloomed. The prolonged cold temperatures (upper teens and lower 20s) Friday night and Saturday night could damage above ground irrigation systems and bloomed perennials. It is best to drain and/or protect irrigation systems before the cold air arrives. Cool northwest flow aloft will prevail behind the exiting system on Saturday with highs expected to reach the 50s across northeast Colorado. Breezy northwest winds up to 30 mph are possible over the northeast plains. Warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an upper level ridge to the west. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. The warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday as the upper level ridge moves over the Central Rockies. This pattern is expected to bring dry conditions on all three days. The forecast becomes less clear on Wednesday as the ridge is expected to move east of the region. Will southwest flow aloft or an upper level trough/low replace the ridge? Models are still showing a wide variety of solutions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/... Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The inversion present this morning has fully mixed out. We expect W to NW winds this afternoon with some gusts around 15 to 20 kts possible. Slightly stronger gusts (up to 25-30 kts) could be possible at KBJC until around 20z due to downslope enhancement that has been occurring since this morning. In the last hour or two, obs have shown some SW winds present at/near KDEN likely due to terrain-induced eddies. There is still a low possibility (around 20%) that some of these SW winds could push through KDEN throughout the early afternoon. Tonight, winds become VRB around 02z before turning to drainage around 04z to 07z. Winds will likely stay under 10 kts overnight and into tomorrow morning. There will be a SCT mid to high level cloud deck overnight. No ceilings issues are expected. For tomorrow, we expect W to WNW winds once again with some stronger gusts possible. For now, we have gone with gusts around 20 kts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ214-216- 241-246-247. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ038>051. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ245-249. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...MV  109 FXUS66 KMFR 151953 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1253 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...The front is passing through the area this afternoon, with rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. Steady rain will taper off as the front passes to the south and east later today, with showers continuing overnight, and potentially some isolated showers persisting into Thursday morning along the coast and the northern Cascades. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there's some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front continues to pass through the region bringing rainfall, breezy winds, and ceilings just above MVFR. This will likely continue through early this afternoon, but we are expecting showers to become more isolated this afternoon with skies clearing behind the front. The big questions is how much clearing will occur tonight. At this time, we have omitted any visibility restrictions and low clouds overnight, and this may need further evaluation for subsequent TAFs. That said, at this time KRBG has the relatively highest probability for visibility restrictions at about 25% overnight. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A passing front will continue to bring breezy winds and steep seas across all waters through tomorrow afternoon. Isolated showers are possible tonight through tomorrow morning, and there could be an embedded thunderstorm tonight (20%-25%) around and north/northwest of Cape Blanco. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Cape Blanco tonight. Conditions improve late Thursday afternoon; however, a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  172 FXUS65 KFGZ 151955 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1255 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Pleasant weather through the rest of today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance for isolated showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Light winds with near-normal temperatures are in store through the rest of today as the gradient aloft relaxes and heights recover following the passage of a shortwave trough yesterday. A much drier airmass is also in place, putting an end to precipitation chances for the near-term. Thursday through Friday...A quick shortwave will brush past northern Arizona. The the trajectory of the disturbance will keep any precipitation well to our north, and the main impact will be strong winds. Recent model guidance has maintained a slightly more northward trajectory, and thus have maintained slightly lower magnitude of peak gusts. The current forecast calls for gusts to 30- 40 mph on Thursday as the trough approaches. Friday afternoon will see cooler daytime temperatures along with west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph across much of the area, however gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible in far eastern AZ. Saturday and beyond...A dry northeast flow will develop into Saturday. Temperatures will be chilly on Saturday morning, falling into the teens to mid 20s for high elevation sites that are protected from wind. Another shortwave trough will approach AZ on Sunday, bringing breezy southerly winds, higher dewpoints, and even a chances for isolated showers. A deeper Pacific trough looks to come onshore sometime early-middle next week, but there is plenty of spread in the track and timing, and confidence is low in the impacts. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/18Z through Thursday 16/18Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming VRB after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/18Z through Saturday 18/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Thursday, then becoming N/NW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Friday before shifting N/NE overnight Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday, becoming north/northwest 10-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH 10-20% each day. Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds north/northeast 5-15 mph on Saturday, shifting south/southeast on Sunday, then southerly on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  728 FXHW60 PHFO 151955 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 955 AM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands producing light and variable winds with chances for showers into Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from Thursday night into Saturday. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Forecast remains on track with minimal updates needed this morning. Mid and high clouds continue to stream over the islands this morning (especially the western half of the state), with light and intermittent shower activity. Relatively light winds will continue into tomorrow, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Looking into the big picture satellite imagery this morning, we see a low pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands, along with high and middle clouds drifting across the state associated with divergence under a Sub Tropical Jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere. These cloudy skies will linger into early next week with chances for light to moderate showers each day. The low pressure system currently north of the islands will keep lighter large scale winds in the forecast into Thursday. This means local scale island day time heating will drive onshore sea breezes into all islands, building clouds and brief shower trends over island mountains and interior sections peaking during the afternoon hours. A passing high pressure system north of the state from Thursday night into Saturday will briefly build in easterly trade winds across the region. Wind speeds will become strong enough to limit sea breezes to terrain sheltered leeward western slopes of each island. Subtle drying trends will develop during this time period due to a slight increase in subsidence, downward vertical motions creating warming and drying effects, making the atmosphere a bit more stable. However, the return to easterly trade winds will be fleeting and vanish quickly by Sunday as a series of low pressure system develop and slowly track north of the state. These passing lows appear to track far enough north to limit any heavy rainfall or flooding issues for the islands. A weak ridge will settle in over the islands producing a stable southeasterly wind across the region. Any enhanced showers in this wind driven pattern will favor southeast slopes of Maui and the Big Island with modest additional rainfall amounts. Elsewhere rainfall will be limited as the passing cloud bands will move more parallel to island mountains and the Big Island will produce a leeside rain shadow across much of the islands in Maui County. && .AVIATION... Issued at 933 AM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly VFR through Thursday. Midlevel precipitation was moving northeast across the area this morning, but is not expected to create significant MVFR conditions. Generally light southeast winds today will become more easterly overnight and Thursday as trades return. No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 933 AM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing to the west maintains gentle to locally moderate ESE winds through Thursday. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters into the weekend. A small, short- period, NW swell diminishes into Thursday and remains subdued through the weekend. A small, medium-period, S swell will boost surf along S shores through Friday then lower over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. Low pressure advancing S along the W coast of the US next week sends a small, medium period NE swell toward the islands by midweek. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Vaughan DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Parker MARINE...JVC  781 FXUS65 KLKN 151956 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1256 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 50 mph across portions of Northern NV today * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest tonight. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level trough and associated surface cold front will pass through northern Nevada tonight and tomorrow, bringing cooler temperatures as well as showers and snow. Strong surface winds are also associated with the front, gusting up to 50 mph in northern Nevada today and around 40 mph in central Nevada tomorrow. Precipitation will begin as rain in Humboldt and northern Elko county before quickly transitioning to snow as it spreads south and east. Snowfall totals have decreased since this time yesterday with up to an inch now forecast for lower elevations and four to six inches forecast for mountain peaks. Minor travel impacts remain possible during the morning commute tomorrow, however ground temperatures remain relatively warm. Dry and warming weather begins on Friday, with high temperatures beginning in the 40s on Friday and warming to the upper 60s and low 70s by Sunday. Another strong upper level low is expected to approach the area by Sunday, however models are split on timing, with a faster solution bringing local impacts starting Monday while the slower solution holds off until Tuesday. The current forecast reflects the faster solution. What is consistent at this time is another cool wet and windy system that will need to be watched as it develops. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers, snow and cold today and tomorrow. Additional high confidence in calm and warming conditions through the weekend. No deviations from base NBM input at this time. && .AVIATION...Strong winds at all sites and sporadic showers at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO will be the main story through the next 24 hours. Strong winds gusting up 25-35KT will be present at all sites during daylight hours, dying back to 10-20KT overnight before picking back up tomorrow. A line of showers and snow is expected to begin at KWMC overnight and spread east over the next several hours to impact KBAM and KEKO. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-034. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94  384 FXUS63 KLOT 151957 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional period of showers and thunderstorms expected this evening. Some could be strong and produce heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into the day on Friday before another storm system arrives Friday evening into early Saturday. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Thursday... The primary weather focus in the near continues to revolve around the expectation for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly this evening. A recent surface analysis indicates that an area of low pressure resides across southeastern NE, with an associated surface cold front extending south-southwestward into the TX Panhandle. While our area has remained cloudy, increased insolation west of the area in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary continues to destabilize the very moist (dew points in the low to mid 60s) low-level prefrontal airmass across MO into south central IA. This will set the stage for additional thunderstorm development mid to late this afternoon west of our area as increased forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level impulse ejecting into the Mid-Missouri Valley overspreads the frontal boundary. After storms onset, a gradual upward growth into an MCS is anticipated this evening as they shift eastward across the Mississippi river. It appears the primary severe weather threat with these storms will be west of our area, with storms likely to be on a weakening trend as they progress eastward across northern IL during the mid to late evening hours. Nevertheless, a continued favorable kinematic environment overhead may continue to support a threat for localized strong wind gusts with the weakening line of storms. Heavy rainfall is expected to accompany these storms through the evening, and this does continue to add concerns for possible hydro concerns tonight. However, it appears the heaviest rain rates may remain more progressive with the moving line of storms tonight. Accordingly, it appears the threat for significant flash flooding is lower than previously thought. Nevertheless, areas across far northern IL that received heavy rainfall last night will be most at risk for additional flooding concerns., With this in mind, we have opted to hold onto the going flash flood watch for this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to become more widely scattered overnight tonight into Thursday as the main mid-level impulse shifts overhead. As an afternoon lake breeze develops and pushes inland across northeastern IL and northwestern IN Thursday afternoon in the wake of the surface low, this may act as a focus for additional isolated shower activity for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Outside of this, conditions will be drying out Thursday afternoon and evening. KJB Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Lingering VFR showers through this afternoon with gusty southwest winds - Two rounds of storms with better chances at/near terminals late this afternoon through midnight. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. - Weaker showers fester through tomorrow morning. - Wind shift to the northeast tomorrow afternoon A surface low, currently analyzed just north of Kansas City, Missouri, will move east-northeast through today and the overnight. This low will be the driving force behind the shower and storm threat tonight. In the meantime, weak rain showers persist this afternoon out ahead of it. Winds will remain out of the southwest through most of the TAF window, with persistent gusts 20 to 25 knots, not diminishing until after midnight. As the low moves closer, it will push a warm front northward through Illinois for the first wave of showers and thunderstorms this evening. There could be a dry slot for a couple hours, but then as the low passes north of the area, it will drag a cold front across northern Illinois for a second round of showers and thunderstorms across the airspace. Some of these storms could become strong to even severe, producing hail and erratic, strong wind gusts. As the front moves east, showers could fester through the morning. There is lower confidence in ceiling trends due to model disagreement, but erred more cynical behind the low and forecasted widespread MVFR conditions across the region through the morning. Winds will become more westerly in the morning, but as the low continues its journey east of the area, models are suggesting a weak front will be sent southward across Lake Michigan and switch winds over to the northeast tomorrow afternoon. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010- INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  749 FXUS63 KDTX 151959 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM for Lenawee and Monroe Counties. -A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms; some rivers are expected to reach/exceed flood stage. -A Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another more isolated threat on Thursday. -Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. -Turning windier and much colder Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s; a few snowflakes are possible. && .DISCUSSION... An active stretch of convection continues this afternoon and evening as the next round of thunderstorms move through Southeast Michigan. The primary stalled frontal boundary remains hung-up over northern Lower Michigan with dewpoints in the 40s, while downstate values are much higher, mostly in the 60s. This warm/moist airmass holds while a secondary, more subtle, convergence axis has become the area of greater concern for additional convective development, positioned from northern Indiana into the southern Ontario peninsula. Forecast soundings have hinted at some low-level CIN as weak capping in the 3- 5 kft layer tries to emerge, but CI over southern Monroe county proved that some surface-based parcels are still able to capitalize on potential instability. Extensive cloud cover limits deeper CAPE density, but fresh updrafts have managed to emerge along the boundary. A remnant MCV moving across the Tri-State area at press time follows a similar trajectory as it brushes southern Lower, and should maintain integrity given ambient shear and ThetaE convergence. A Slight Risk remains outlooked for much of Southeast Michigan by SPC, but the emphasis will be on locations south of I-94 where instability is maximized. Strong gusts and large hail are the anticipated severe hazards, but a weak tornado threat remains given 100+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, and persistent rotation from the inbound MCV (and vicinity storms). Further north, expect scattered coverage with a lesser concern for severe. Slightly higher risk for a few additional strong storms exists over the Tri-Cities and Thumb region this evening with the arrival of higher MUCAPE bubble. Mild again tonight with lows only in the 60s. More showers and thunderstorms develop overnight as the southern stream jet positions atop the Great Lakes with several perturbations rippling through. Healthy 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 knots will be available tonight, with some linearity in convective mode arising at times. Mixed signals exist regarding the prevalence of surface mixing potential, or if a weak nocturnal inversion can hold to keep convection more elevated. Very minimal change noted in mid-level temperature profiles tonight, but layer dewpoints/PWATs should rise supporting heavy rainfall rates, given increasing background tendency for synoptic ascent. Mid-level lapse rates remain below 6.5 C/km. Latest CAMs offer little clarity in timing a reprieve from convection on Thursday, therefore, early morning, late morning, and afternoon convective potential exists. Shortwave trough feature embedded within the mean flow slides through aloft between 15Z and 21Z. This provides a boost in CVA, leading to low-end severe potential, limited by instability. Shortwave ridging then slides in Friday with high confidence in a mainly dry day. Amplified longwave trough of eastern Pacific origin reaches Lower Michigan Friday night, favoring anomalous warmth, convection, and breezy conditions. The system forces a stark cold front through Saturday sending 850 mb temperatures crashing into the minus teens (Celsius). A transition to light snow showers is possible Sunday morning with post-frontal northwest flow and ensuing cold advection to close out the weekend. && .MARINE... Active pattern remains firmly in place as additional scattered areas of showers cross the region this evening. Thunderstorm potential is highest across the southern half of the area, particularly over the southern Great Lakes where a few strong to severe storms are possible (wind gusts in excess of 34kts being the primary hazard though some large hail or an isolated waterspout are possible). Trough moves into the area by Thursday maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms. System peels away from the region by Thursday night ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30s. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential is lower (<30%) at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, any focused areas of convection could significantly over-perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to train, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for worse flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low tonight and Thursday, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. Afternoon rainfall rates have ranged between approximately 1 and 2 inches. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AVIATION... Mild and moist conditions will maintain a supportive environment for periodic bouts of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Initial attention focused on an area of convection lifting northeast across northern IN. Potential exists for thunderstorms to expand across the region between 19z and 21z. MVFR to IFR conditions where heavier rainfall materialize. While a lower coverage of convection may yet emerge elsewhere into the evening, a more targeted period for showers and thunderstorms appears focused between 02z and 08z. Forecast will maintain a conservative outlook given a mixed signal on potential and possible coverage. Prevailing VFR conditions tonight outside of any periods of heavier convective activity. DTW/D21 Convection...Potential for thunderstorms to lift through between 19z and 22z. A secondary period may development within the 03z and 08z window, but confidence in occurrence remains much lower. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft through tonight. * Medium for thunderstorms this afternoon. Low tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....KGK/SF AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.