831 FXUS62 KMFL 152000 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Guidance keeps the ridge/deep high pressure holding its ground across the SE CONUS and the FL peninsula despite a rather complex weather scenario developing over the rest of the CONUS. The ridge axis will slowly drift southward and closer to SoFlo through tomorrow as some of the aforementioned storm systems push eastward. This will keep the area under a warm and dry weather regime through the rest of the week. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days, and a significantly dry air mass between 1- 9km. Radar data shows less marine shower activity today, with very low chances of shallow marine showers making it into the east coast metro areas through the rest of the afternoon hours. Any shower should remain light and very brief. As the ridge axis moves closer to the area, expect pressure gradients to relax a little. This will result in shorter periods of breezy easterly winds, but still expecting some gusty periods around the Atlantic coastline this afternoon. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. Local air quality issues are likely to continue as firefighters work on mitigating the fire. Other smoke- associated hazards may include lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Max temps Thursday afternoon should reach the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s over the west coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds remain gusty from the ENE through 00-01Z, then light to moderate overnight. Wind speeds may remain around 10kt, likely with with no periods of wind gusts Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 70 85 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 68 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  788 FXUS61 KCLE 152001 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 401 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely unchanged. There will be severe weather potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards possible. Additional rounds of severe weather possible Thursday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential across the region continues this afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday. 2) Multiple rounds of precipitation through Thursday night will bring flooding potential to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northwestern Ohio. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Highest potential for frost/freeze will be Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday as a boundary wavers through the central Great Lakes through the early weekend. See below for a breakdown for each day: Today: Northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania continues to destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the southwest. As this occurs, MLCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0 C/km. Lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm potential. Additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, that will support organized convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are currently getting started across eastern Indiana and western Ohio early afternoon along a boundary across that area. As this moves eastward more into Ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and intensity. Timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the western portion of the CWA by 2-3PM and traverse across exiting into Pennsylvania by 8-9PM. Another round of thunderstorms are possible late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving through the region. Though, severe potential associated with those should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates. Thursday: Another round of severe weather is possible on Thursday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the continued southwesterly flow. The main threat will be in the evening with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the region. Can't rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best instability. The severe weather potential should begin to diminish around sunset and move out to the east. Saturday: The next round of severe potential will be during the afternoon on Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the strong low to mid level winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... With plenty of moisture advection across the region through Thursday night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Precipitable water values will be around 1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in thunderstorms. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through Thursday night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north of the area and support the potential for training storms. Generally expecting this to stay north of US Route 30. Through Thursday night, rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end amounts closer to the lake shore. Higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms as well. Latest guidance has trended northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so confidence is lower in this. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures through Saturday evening will continue to be above average. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see southwesterly flow across the region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday sweeping a cold front through that will usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop down to 5-10 degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest of this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations possibly seeing upper 20s. Given the growing season as begun across Ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night with a lower potential for Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday rising to around seasonally average. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, SW'erly to W'erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region as a stronger disturbance moves E'ward and nears Lake Michigan and vicinity by 18Z/Thurs. At the surface, our region remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge. Our regional surface winds should trend S'erly to SW'erly around 10 to 15 knots through the TAF period. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially before 23Z/Wed and after 14Z/Thurs. Scattered to widespread low clouds are expected through the TAF period and any resulting ceilings should be in the 2kft to 6kft AGL range. As of 17:30Z/Wed, lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms had developed just west of our region in northern IN and far-NW OH. These scattered showers/storms are expected to persist generally E'ward through our region through ~02Z/Thurs and produce the following: brief MVFR to IFR; brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 to 55 knots. Some storms may also produce damaging hail. Behind these initial showers/storms, additional isolated showers and storms with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible the rest of this evening into Thurs morning amidst low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, but confidence remains very low that this additional convection will occur. After ~14Z/Thurs, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may outpace the aforementioned stronger disturbance aloft and impact locations as far east as roughly the longitude of KCLE by 18Z/Thurs. These storms should produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief MVFR to LIFR. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and again on Saturday. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Lake Erie remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across the lake Thursday night. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through Friday. Ahead of the cold front, winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less. Behind the front, winds veer to W'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 knots. Accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. These winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. During Friday night through Saturday morning, the ridge should exit E'ward and allow a warm front to sweep N'ward across Lake Erie. Mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S'erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots behind the front. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers should occur in open U.S. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. A strong cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie Saturday evening through Saturday night and allow SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to W'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 7 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed, especially east of The Islands. Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie through Sunday night and be accompanied by W'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet should persist. On Monday, a ridge should build from the west and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by sunset Monday evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-018- 019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Jaszka  863 FXUS63 KJKL 152012 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are forecast today, Friday, and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night with a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf to FL area with the axis of this ridge extending north to the coast of the Carolinas to VA. Further west a trough extended through the Central Conus with an upper low over northeastern NE. Another shortwave was over the High Plains of CO to NW vicinity at this time. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was to the west of this trough from the Southwest Conus to the Four Corners region while an upper low was over the BC to Pacific Northwest vicinity with a trough south to CA. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from New England to the Great Lakes to a sfc near the IA/NE border and then south to the Southern Plains. Sfc high pressure was centered in the Southeast Conus with ridging extending into the Southern Appalachians. A few cumulus were in place across northwestern portions of the area where dewpoints were a bit higher in southwest flow in the mid to upper 50s while dewpoints in the south and southeast were in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures for all but the highest terrain were in the low to mid 80s. This evening and tonight, 500 mb heights are progged to trend upward early this evening before falling heights are anticipated later tonight as the upper low in the Plains tracks into WI and nears the western Great Lakes with the trailing shortwave entering the Lower OH Valley. At the same time, sfc high pressure will remain in place from the Southeast to off the southeast coast with ridging into the Southern Appalachians. Some high clouds should pass across eastern KY from time to time in this scenario, but moisture increases late if not during the day on Thursday. This should lead to several hours if not the entire night free of low and mid level clouds per 12Z HREF and eastern and southeastern valleys should again decouple and based on recent mixed dewpoints these locations should fall some 10 to 14 degrees below NBM deterministic values and to near readings that were observed this morning. Ridgetop and more open terrain locations should remain in the 60s. The upper low will weaken to an open wave by Thursday as it treks northeast to the Central Great Lakes while the axis of the upper ridge moves further east of the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. As the trailing shortwave passes by continued height falls should occur over eastern KY on Thursday while the shortwave that is initially in the High Plains moves across the Plains and nears the Lower OH Valley. That second shortwave should cross the area on Thursday evening into Thursday night. On Thursday, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE is on the lower end only peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range with some shear in the 30 to 40KT range for bulks shear. Recent CAM runs bring a few showers or an outflow boundary in from the west near or after dawn with some convection during peak heating. That activity may tend to wane and shift east of eastern KY by sunset on Thursday though some additional activity could affect southern portions of the area later Thursday evening and Thursday night with the second shortwave. This activity overall appears that it will be scattered in nature and rainfall from this will be variable, but generally a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. Locally higher amounts would occur with any thunderstorms and a couple of stronger wind gusts are not out of the question, especially if instability were to be higher than currently anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 18Z TAF issuance with low level clouds gradually diminishing/mixing out across the region. Southwest winds were generally in the 5 to 12KT range with gusts to near 20KT. These should persist for the first few hours of the period and then diminish near 00Z. Winds should again increase after sunrise on Thursday as a disturbance nears. This system will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds near the end of the period and isolated to scattered showers may occur for the more western locations, KSME, KIOB, and KSYM by the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP  537 FXUS63 KAPX 152014 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 414 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and embedded storms through Thursday. Heaviest rainfall is expected later this evening/tonight with the potential for another 1"+ near M-55 corridor. - Break in rain chances Friday before additional showers/storms Saturday. - Much colder temperatures and light snow chances late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak troughing will lift from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Ridging will temporarily slide over the region late this week, building high pressure in on Friday. This will quickly be shunted east as strong troughing punches over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. The associated surface cyclone will track across the Upper Midwest into Canada Friday/Friday night, swinging a front across the state on Saturday. Surface high pressure then looks to build in behind this system to start next week. Forecast Details: Light showers have blossomed near Saginaw Bay/Lake Huron across northeast lower this afternoon and are expected to continue into this evening. Additional rainfall amounts associated with this activity should stay under 0.25". Showers and storms currently forming upstream across parts of the Midwest will be the primary concern. These showers/storms will track east across the lake with time this evening. While there's still uncertainty in how this will evolve with time, current confidence is that this activity will work across areas along and south of M-72 later this evening and tonight. Once again, the heaviest rain potential is expected along and south of M-55. Current forecast rainfall ranges from 0.5" to 1" for this area into Thursday morning with the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 1" should any heavier rain/embedded storms track over our far southern counties. This certainly raises additional flood concerns across already impacted areas that are extremely sensitive to more rainfall. Otherwise, areas of fog are likely again tonight and Thursday morning as rain chances continue through Thursday afternoon, although anticipation is that showers on Thursday will be relatively light. Aforementioned high pressure building in will bring an end to rain chances, bringing a pleasant day back to the Northwoods on Friday with sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and even low 70s across interior northern lower and cooler highs across the eastern U.P. and along the lakeshores. Unfortunately for areas impacted by flooding, the break in rain chances will be brief as additional showers and storms are expected on Saturday as the front swings through -- potentially exacerbating ongoing flooding/recovery efforts. A drastic airmass change is in store behind the front, plummeting temperatures into the 20s and 30s Saturday night and lasting into early next week. Forecast profiles currently appear on the dry side, but light snow chances will return to the forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Currently lingering -RA/DZ and patchy BR/FG are resulting in IFR to LIFR conditions at all terminals today. These conditions will persist and even degrade as -RA moves in for northern lower terminals after 00z. Slight chance for VCSH/SHRA near KAPN after 21z. Widespread BR/FG will drop most visibilities to 1SM or less after 06z. Winds remain AOB 10kts and VRB, and will turn NW near the end of the period. Conditions will improve after 12z to MVFR/IFR however lingering BR and OVC cigs below 1 kft will continue chances for IFR impacts through the end of the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...ELD  510 FXUS64 KMOB 152017 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 317 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong upper-level ridge over the Southeast US briefly retreats southward as a weakening shortwave pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. Not anticipating any rain as this shortwave passes to our north due to limited moisture and little forcing. The ridge builds back in for Friday and Saturday, leading to very warm temperatures. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark on Friday. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Looking at tonight, rather high dense fog probabilities from SREF/HREF guidance have increased confidence enough to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire local area from midnight tonight through 9 AM Thursday morning. Additionally, with several prescribed burns/wildfires ongoing across the area, we are also concerned for the potential of super fog as heavy smoke can enhance the fog and drastically reduce visibility to near zero. Although the greatest potential for super fog looks to remain away from the I-10 and I-65 corridor, super fog could bring visibility impacts to a few of our interior state highways late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Moisture pooling along the front, along with limited forcing, may allow for a weakening line of showers (or possibly a thunderstorm) to push into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Unfortunately, with forcing quickly lifting away from the area as the line of showers enters the area, we are not anticipating any meaningful rainfall with this front. After the front's passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday will only reach the low to mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. For early next week, highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s and lows will be in the 50s. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday night, lowering to a Low Risk for Friday and into the weekend. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening as winds turn southeasterly to southerly. Winds will become calm this evening with fog expected again overnight. LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop across much of the area once again after midnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Through Saturday, afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria. However, given the worsening drought, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area. We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and especially into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 65 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  231 FXUS63 KLBF 152019 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in a return to critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night with some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in below freezing temperatures Friday night which may result in widespread freeze conditions. - Moderate confidence in warmer temperatures returning to by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 With the majority of the precipitation pushed east of the region, weak ridging will continue to build back into the central Plains. This will bring drier and warmer conditions once again across much of the region for Thursday. A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 85 degrees to be nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher for areas east of US-83. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8) with SoT above 0 across portions of north central Nebraska. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Current records sit at 89 for North Platte and 91 at Broken Bow, Valentine, and Imperial. The latest probability suggests maximum temperatures over 90 degrees to be highest (near 45 percent) across extreme north central Nebraska. Therefore, outside of this region (O'Neill area), not expecting highs to rise to near or over 90... therefore records not expected to be broken. However, would not be surprised to see a slight increase in highs over the going forecasted highs as the warming trend continues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. A brief period of rain Thursday night is expected across northwest Nebraska before changing over to all snow as temperatures drop below freezing and remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult during the daytime. Further to the south and east, precipitation will not arrive until Friday afternoon as the trough pushes east. Precip type will generally start off as rain, but as the colder air behind the trough filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. At this time, any snow accumulations should be around or under a half inch, mainly across areas west of Highway 61. The majority of the precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and skies clearing out shortly after Midnight CT. This leads to the next major weather concern in the long term. As precipitation comes to an end and skies clear and combine with cold air filtering into the region, surface low temperatures will plummet to below freezing. Lows in the 20s will be likely across much of the region with portions of the Pine Ridge and eastern Panhandle even dropping into the upper teens. While temperatures across much of the region will have lows in the mid 20s, a freeze watch Friday night will only encompass areas generally south of Highway 2 Friday night where these areas have seen some growing already started and many pivots and sprinklers have been turned on. Temperatures will remain below normals on Saturday with highs only rising into the 50s. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be chilly once again, but a few degrees warmer than Friday night. At this time not anticipating any freeze headlines, but they may be necessary as overnight lows still drop into the mid 20s across the forecast area. Heading into the latter half of the weekend and into next week, upper level ridging remains in place across the western US with surface high pressure across the central Plains allowing for dry conditions to prevail. Persistent warm air advection into the region will allow for a decent warming trend through the beginning of next week. High temperatures will easily rise back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday with lows returning into the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist throughout much of the region through Thursday morning. Winds will generally remain under 12 knots with skies remaining mostly clear. Some increasing winds are expected by late Thursday morning across the Pine Ridge and into northern Nebraska with southwesterly gusts up to 25 knots. Even stronger gusts up to 30 knots are expected Thursday afternoon across the majority of the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Thursday as RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 15 percent for much of the region with some locations across south central Nebraska dropping to near 10 percent. South southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts across the rest of the area up to 25 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from late Thursday morning through late evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will recover to over 70 percent for much of the region as the next weather system pushes into the region bringing some light precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday. QPF values will remain under a tenth inch (0.10) for areas mainly west of US-83, with lesser amounts to the east. After a brief respite on Friday, humidity values drop back to 15 percent or lower on Saturday continuing into next week, therefore elevated to near critical fire conditions will return on Saturday. With the dry conditions and increasing warming temperatures combined with low RH into next week, critical fire conditions will return through at least Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NEZ204-206-208>210- 219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Kulik FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  969 FXUS63 KMPX 152021 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 321 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm Thursday, with potential for critical fire weather conditions across western MN on Thursday afternoon. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 late Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today through Thursday: Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed mostly sunny skies across the region, with light surface winds. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across. Radar showed a few elevated returns across southern Minnesota, and there is a small chance (20 percent) for rain this afternoon and evening. However, the majority of the rain and storms will stay well to the south across I-90. On Thursday, expect another day of warm temperatures as a low pressure system approaches from the west and brings an increase in southerly winds. This will lead to low humidity and breezy conditions across western Minnesota, so we did issue a Fire Weather watch from 11am to 7pm. Friday through Saturday: Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A strong cold front will move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, expect temperatures in the 70s and southwest winds, along with a chance for thunderstorms. A few of these storms should be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The storms should start as discrete cells, with hail as the primary threat, and then quickly grow upscale into a line with wind becoming the primary threat. The risk for tornadoes is a distant third. These storms will develop around the lunch hour near I-35, and then move eastward rather quickly into Wisconsin. Behind the front, expect breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph, and falling temperatures. As the overall system organizes, precipitation will wrap around from the northwest, with rain changing over to snow. As of now, this looks to be closer to the international border, but could have some light rain with a few snow flakes on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday through Tuesday: Dry conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday will remain cool with surface high pressure overhead, and temperatures near 50. On Monday the high will depart to the east, and southerly winds will increase bringing warmer temperatures with highs the 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected for the rest of today. Fog is expected to redevelop again tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. EAU can expect MVFR visibilities with occasional lowering to IFR. Fog will lift quickly throughout the morning and VFR will return for all terminals. KMSP...VFR through the rest of the day. Fog is possible in the morning, but is forecast to remain to the north of MSP. Will continue to monitor. Winds remain light out of the east/northeast, becoming more southeast to southerly throughout Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...Borghoff  580 FXPQ50 PGUM 152028 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 628 AM ChST Thu Apr 16 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Typhoon Sinlaku continues to be the dominant feature within the Marianas. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Saipan and Tinian, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Rota, and isolated showers are seen across Guam. Dangerous marine conditions continue across the Marianas with 15+ foot seas across the region. && .Discussion... Typhoon Sinlaku remains a slow mover as it crawls northwestward at about 5 mph away from Saipan and Tinian. Typhoon Sinlaku underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which allowed for an expansion in the wind field. Rainbands from TY Sinlaku have generally shifted north of Guam and Rota, which allowed for the Flash Flood Watch to be cancelled. Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) shows an additional 2 to 6 inches of rain for Saipan and Tinian and the Flash Flood Watch was extended until this afternoon. See Hydrology section for more details. Little change was made to the near-term forecast due to the slow movement of Sinlaku. Guam airport has seen gusts just under 55 mph through the night and Oka Point had a 40 mph sustained ob overnight. Finally, the 18z balloon showed 925 mb winds at 57 knots. In combination with ASCAT showing tropical storm winds overstretching Guam, and the JTWC forecast keeping TS winds over Guam, the morning forecast package held onto Guam's tropical storm warning. Winds increase northward over the Marianas with Saipan and Tinian seeing winds of 60 to 70 mph and gusts to 85 mph. && .Marine... Dangerous seas and winds continue across the Marianas. The large size of Typhoon Sinlaku has led to fully developed waves. Seas remain greater than 15 feet across the Marianas and greater than 20 feet across the CNMI. TS conditions continue across all waters and look to persist through today. Seas will be slow to subside due to the slow motion of TY Sinlaku. Seas look to remain above 10 feet through Saturday. Surf continues to be dangerous with all islands hitting 15 ft surf for south, west, and north facing reefs. This looks to continue until at least Friday afternoon. Surf may remain hazardous into the weekend across south, west, and north facing reefs. The Coastal Flood Warning was extended until 5 PM today for Guam, which lines up with Rota. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet will be possible across Guam today with 2 to 4 feet across Rota, and 4 to 6 feet across Saipan and Tinian. Coastal inundation could linger as the astronomical tides are elevated from the new moon this week. This may necessitate an extension of coastal flood products. && .Hydrology... Hydrologic conditions continue to improve across the Marianas. The heaviest rainbands are now north of Guam and Rota and rainfall chances are decreasing. An additional inch of rain may be possible. The risk of flash flooding has diminished and the Flash Flood Watch was cancelled. For Saipan and Tinian, the Flash Flood Watch was extended until this afternoon. Additional rainfall looks to range between 2 to 6 inches, which aligns with eTRaP. Once the heavier bands move through today, the risk for flash flooding will have greatly diminished. Storm totals at WFO Guam were over 12 inches so far. Over the coming days data will be collected to determine how much rainfall fell from the storm. && .Tropical Systems... The 5 AM position of Typhoon Sinlaku was at 16.7N and 144.5E. This was 80 miles west-northwest of Anatahan, 110 miles southwest of Alamagan, 135 miles northwest of Saipan, and 225 miles north of Guam. Sinlaku was moving northwest at 305 degrees at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 125 mph. Sinlaku is forecasted to briefly intensify this morning before weakening tonight and into Friday. Typhoon Sinlaku continues to move away from Saipan and Tinian. Due to an expanded wind field and slow movement, winds have been slow to subside across the Marianas. Sinlaku will continue to lift towards the far northern Marianas today before turning to the northeast around Agrihan on Friday. Typhoon conditions are expected across Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan through Friday. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and WTPQ81 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... The main change this forecast update was to increase rainfall coverage and probabilities at Kosrae. Satellite imagery shows convergent outflow boundaries heading towards the region, with streamline analysis hinting that a subtle trough may be embedded in the flow. As such, increased shower coverage to scattered, with 40 percent probabilities today and 30 percent tonight. A similar feature is approaching Majuro, but, the going forecast has this well- covered. At pohnpei, you're located in a weak convergence area north of a col, with no appreciable convection upstream. Thus, isolated showers in the forecast looks good. && .Western Micronesia... The only weather feature affecting Western Micronesia at this time is Typhoon Sinlaku, and even those effects are indirect, being swell. For Koror, Palau, looks like isolated showers for the entire forecast period. Winds will be 5 to 15 knots through Friday, then 5 to 10 knots through Monday. Seas of 6 to 8 feet today will diminish to between 4 and 6 feet by the weekend. Marine conditions will likely start challenging but become benign by the weekend. At Yap, it also looks like isolated showers for the entire forecast period. Winds will be 10 to 15 knots through Friday, then 5 to 10 knots through Monday. Seas of 10 to 13 feet today will diminish to between 6 and 8 feet by the weekend. Marine conditions will start hazardous, but by the weekend will become just challenging. High surf and Small Craft advisories have been issued to cover these conditions. In Chuuk, it looks like isolated showers through Sunday, then showers could become scattered for Monday. Winds will be 10 to 15 knots through tonight, then 5 to 10 knots through Monday. Seas will start at 6 to 8 feet today, then diminish to between 4 and 5 feet by Sunday. Marine conditions will start challenging, becoming gentle by the weekend. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001. Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Coastal Flood Warning until noon ChST Friday for MPZ002-003. Flood Watch through this afternoon for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151. Typhoon Watch for PMZ151. Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. && $$ Marianas: Williams East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia: Stanko  773 FXUS63 KGLD 152031 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 231 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. A period of breezy winds in wake of a low pressure system is forecast to lead to wind gusts around 25 knots through mid to late afternoon. Winds are currently from the northwest but are forecast to back to the southwest this evening and remaining that way through the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  681 FXUS66 KPDT 152033 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 133 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows a closed upper low centered over southwest British Columbia early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a robust cold front is trekking across eastern Oregon and far southeast Washington. In the wake of the front, skies have become clear to partly cloudy across much of the Columbia Basin and vicinity, with upslope convective showers noted across the Cascade crest. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in an additional 2-6 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades and northern Blue Mountains, and 4-8 inches for the Oregon Cascades. While the bulk of the steady snowfall has ended for the Cascades -- and will end through this afternoon for the Blues as the front sags southeast -- snow showers will persist through tonight into Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves over northeast Washington. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds have developed in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. While winds of 20-30 mph coupled with gusts of 30-40 mph have developed in climatologically wind-prone locations, confidence in the need for any wind headlines is low-medium (30-60 percent), highest for the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Winds will be locally stronger along exposed ridges within the Columbia Plateau region. The cold air mass associated with the low has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities still suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for tonight into Thursday morning where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon). Will note there is still uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours, so confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is shaky (50-60 percent), but think areas of freezing temperatures still have a high enough chance of developing to retain the warnings. An upper-level ridge will likely (90 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. Have not issued any Freeze Watches to avoid confusion given the existing Freeze Warnings for Thursday morning. Uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows through the weekend, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest Saturday through the remainder of the period. Precipitation chances increase Sunday, but especially Monday and Tuesday, in what is looking increasingly like a potential convective set-up for portions of the forecast area. Another deformation band similar to what was observed earlier in the week is also looking like a potential outcome should the closed low track inland along a supportive path, but confidence in that solution is currently low (20-25 percent). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... A cold front is moving across the area today, which will create gusty west wind and IFR ceilings in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, most notably at ALW and PDT early in the TAF period. Periods of light to moderate rain will obstruct visibility as low as 2 to 3SM in the vicinity of any of these aforementioned terminals and to around 3-5sm at BDN and RDM. Momentum behind the frontal boundary will maintain gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots into the evening hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 31 53 32 57 / 30 10 0 0 ALW 34 54 36 57 / 50 30 0 0 PSC 34 61 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 30 59 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 32 59 34 62 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 29 51 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 22 48 21 57 / 40 10 0 0 LGD 28 46 29 54 / 70 40 10 0 GCD 25 45 25 54 / 70 40 0 0 DLS 35 56 35 63 / 40 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...71  700 FXUS64 KSHV 152033 RRB AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A round of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, will proceed along and north of the I-30 corridor overnight. - Frontal passage will occur through Saturday afternoon, with a 30-40% chance of at least 1 inch of rain across the area. - Cooler than normal temperatures return by Sunday into the beginning of next week with a gradual warm-up through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 After tonight's round of strong to severe thunderstorms (mostly across SE Oklahoma and Arkansas), an active weather pattern will continue into the weekend as troughing continues across the Intermountain West and ridging over the East Coast. This general pattern of troughing and ridging, although transient, will hold through the next week with multiple longwave troughs traversing the upper Great Plains into the Midwest atop the ridge over the Southeast U.S. coastline. One of the aforementioned troughs will carry an attendant frontal boundary across the area on Saturday, instigating another round of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Ingredients necessary for severe weather with this round remains meager at the moment with kinematic and thermodynamic parameters not reading as high yet. Temperatures will remain above normal (maximums/minimums in the upper 80s/mid-60s) until Saturday's frontal passage produces a brief return to below normal chill (maximums/minimums in the lower 70s/lower 40s). QPF Day 1-7 rainfall values of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected as a result. /16/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 15/18z TAF period...VFR skies have return across the region, but under mostly cloudy skies. The clouds will scattered out more during the afternoon hours today, with exceptions possibly at KTXK/KTYR/KGGG/KLFK. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at KTXK/KELD overnight, followed by the return of MVFR cigs across the region by daybreak. These MVFR cigs should hold on through the remainder of the period. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 86 67 88 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 66 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 0 DEQ 61 82 62 85 / 70 20 10 10 TXK 67 86 68 88 / 50 20 10 0 ELD 63 85 64 88 / 30 30 10 0 TYR 67 85 67 86 / 40 10 0 0 GGG 67 85 66 87 / 30 10 0 0 LFK 67 87 66 88 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...15  429 FXUS65 KGGW 152035 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 235 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers remain likely this evening, potentially with an isolated gusty thunderstorm. Rain will change to or mix with snow on Thursday. - Below normal temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday with persistent northwest gusty winds. - Expect a warming trend over the weekend with drier weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The next low pressure system and cold front look to push through tonight and Thursday. Expect increasing chances for rain showers this evening, potentially with an isolated thunderstorm. HREF max ensemble wind gust guidance shows support for potential gusty winds associated with the 0-6Z Thursday timing and track from Central MT eventually into the southwest zones across the Little Rockies to near Jordan. Meanwhile, northwest winds look to increase following cold frontal passage. Thus, will maintain the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Any lingering rain showers will transition to light snow, but latest trends have trended lower on QPF and snow amounts including near the Canadian border. Expect that the steadiest snowfall amounts will remain north into Canada as well as over the mountainous terrain of Montana per latest ensemble means. Far colder temperatures are expected Thursday into Friday, while northwest winds ramp up enough to maintain Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake from 9am to 9pm Thursday. Upper ridging looks to build into the region with milder and drier weather beginning by the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Near term winds were adjusted with a blend of NBM90 following a period of decent cold air advection into Thursday and lowering heights with the approaching trough. Confidence is increasing on total precipitation remaining light overall tonight into Thursday but remains below average on precipitation type and snowfall amounts near the Canadian border given marginal temperature thresholds. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 1930Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: Look for VFR initially amid increasing cloud cover as the next system moves in with rain showers and isolated thunder this evening. Lowering ceilings will lead to MVFR ceilings becoming more common overnight. As rain mixes and changes to snow on Thursday, MVFR/IFR will continue. WIND: Look for SW winds ranging from 10 to 20 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Northwest winds look to increase on Thursday, ranging 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  180 FXUS65 KBOI 152036 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 236 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and a chance of thunderstorms this evening, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight. - Subfreezing morning temperatures tonight, Friday, and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showing a well defined cold front stretching through central Oregon. The front will push through SE Oregon late this afternoon and across southwest Idaho this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with enhancement possible as it pushes into the west-central ID mountains. The wind gust potential along the front is 30-40 mph with higher end gusts of up to 50 mph from stronger showers/storms. Colder air will be quick to move in behind the front tonight, allowing for a changeover to snow down to valley floors. This will mostly impact the western Magic Valley where showers linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise lower elevations dry out behind the front overnight while mountains see a continued chance of snow showers. Light accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are expected across mountain valleys through mid-morning Thursday while higher elevations pick up an additional 3 to 8 inches of snow. In the Snake Plain temperatures will drop to around freezing Thursday morning so have opted to go with a Freeze Warning. The highest confidence for freezing temperatures is across the Upper Treasure Valley (Boise metro and points east) and western Magic Valley. Feel less certain about a freeze in the lower Treasure Valley where continued northwest winds could keep temperatures above freezing, especially near the ID/OR border. Friday is notably cooler with high temperatures around 15 degrees below normal and breezy northwest winds making it feel colder. Even warmer spots in the lower Snake Plain will see wind chill values only top out in the mid 30s to low 40s. With the cold air mass in place have much higher confidence in widespread freezing temperatures Friday morning across the Snake Plain. This will be a colder and longer duration freeze than what we see tonight. Otherwise, Friday is dry across most of the area, with scattered snow showers lingering in the west-central Idaho mountains. Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees from Thursday and lighter winds lessen the chill. Another frost/freeze is possible Friday night, but will hold off on any products for now. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... A ridge building into the northwest region will bring warmer and drier conditions Saturday through Sunday. Saturday morning will still see temperatures hovering near freezing in the lower Treasure Valley and 5-10 degrees below freezing over other areas. Sunday is expected to see peak temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Guidance uncertainty remains over the arrival timing of a closed upper low digging into the region from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Overall ensemble guidance has delayed the arrival to late Monday, with a chance of precip over the SE OR areas. A slight warming trend should stay intact through midweek due to the south- southwest flow expected from this system. For now, precipitation chances will increase to 20-40% area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus generally projects higher precip coverage over the entire CWA on Wednesday as the low passes over the area. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1154 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Low VFR/MVFR ceilings in rain and IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Snow levels 5-7kft MSL. A cold front will bring sharp wind shifts and intensify precip after 20Z, with MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder with small hail/graupel along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Scattered light snow showers expected Thursday morning through afternoon. Surface winds: SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-35 kt, then W- NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 40 kt this afternoon with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Showers continuing with periods of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibility this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive this afternoon around 22Z. The front will bring a sharp NW wind shift, heavier precip, temporary MVFR/IFR, and potential for graupel/lightning. Conditions returning to VFR following the front. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt this morning, then NW 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt following frontal passage this afternoon/evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ012-014- 016. Freeze Warning from midnight Thursday night to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Warning from 4 AM MDT /3 AM PDT/ to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Thursday for ORZ064. Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....JY  833 FXUS65 KABQ 152041 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 241 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeastern and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A tranquil afternoon and evening continues across New Mexico as weak west to northwest flow entrenches the state. A few northwest breezes are likely to continue through the afternoon, but will subside by sunset. Tonight looks to be clear and cool (lows in the high 30s to mid 20s) , though should be a few degrees warmer than last night given higher pressure heights and weak upper level flow preventing prime radiational cooling. Thursday turns more active with two approaching trough axes from the west. The more northern trough axis, located over UT, looks to develop a surface low in eastern CO, extending down into northeast NM. Alongside this, a minor but noted pressure gradient increases at 500mb and 700mb. These factors combined look to bring breezy to windy conditions across the state, most notably in eastern NM. Well- mixed atmospheric layers should bring about no issue in transferring the elevated 700mb flow (~30kts) to the surface. Overall, winds look to be southwest 15-25mph, except 20-30mph in northeast NM with gusts up to 40mph. Relative humidity also looks to drop into the single digits across the state, and that combination of wind and dry conditions leads to favorable conditions of rapid fire spread. Continue to be mindful about preventing sparks when outdoors. Temperatures also look to remain in the low to mid 70s across western and central NM and getting as high as the mid 80s across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Not a whole lot of rest and reprieve from the winds going into early Friday morning. A 250mb speed max, associated with the more southern trough axis mentioned in the short term, starts to encroach from the south into the forecast area. In turn, 500mb and 700mb winds also increase from south to north over time through Thursday night/Friday morning. Thus, the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains look to get increased winds early Friday morning with this approaching system. Cross sections also show the potential for mountain waves given a stable temperature layer above the surface in soundings near Ruidoso. While this does not appear favorable for crashing mountain waves, heightened wind speeds are favored across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains near Dunken and Hondo. Gusts between 50- 55mph appear most favorable at the moment. Further north, the northern trough axis continues to move to the east through CO. The placement of each downstream speed max from each axis places northeast NM and southeast CO in an area both in a left exit and right entrance region of upper level jets. As such, a surface low is expected to develop in this area and contribute to windy conditions across much of eastern NM. Alongside this, a strong Pacific front begins to push through western NM as the trough axis traverses the CO/NM border. The combination of the surface low, Pacific front, and stronger 700mb winds (~35-40kts) should yield a windier day across much of the state. Gusts up to 50mph look likely across eastern NM, specifically along the I-40 corridor and on the immediate east slopes of the central mountain chain. There has been a decrease in the forecast wind speeds for Friday on account of a significant decrease in model guidance speeds and where exactly the surface low develops. Should the low develop further north or east, forecast winds in eastern NM would likely continue to decrease. A further south/west and/or stronger low may lead to higher wind speed forecasts. The aforementioned Pacific front and a backdoor front from the surface low look to push through much of NM Friday night into Saturday morning, plummeting temperatures across the area. There is high confidence in widespread temperatures below freezing, with continued high confidence in a hard freeze (<28F). While we are starting to near the average last freeze for some areas, the record warm March along with very recent rainfall has allowed for abundant blooming of plants and folks starting irrigation processes. A Freeze Watch will more likely than not be needed within the next day or two. Start preparing to protect your plants, pipes, pets and people! Weak ridging looks to build over the state through the weekend, bringing in calmer conditions mainly on Saturday. The orientation of the ridge looks to induce weak southerly flow on Sunday, producing a favorable pattern for a weak influx of moisture. A few gusty virga showers and light rain look possible for Sunday, though with only low to moderate confidence. Forecast confidence continues to decrease moving into next week as a potent low spins off the coast of CA. When and where it moves ashore will spell what impacts it will bring to NM, though a windy pattern with bouts of precipitation appear possible (low confidence). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist through the TAF period. West to northwest winds will prevail through the afternoon and until at least 00z, with a few gusts up to 20kts. Relatively light winds are expected overnight, with a drainage wind likely at KSAF. A few fair weather cumulus clouds will interrupt otherwise clear skies across northern and western NM. West to southwest winds look to increase near the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY... Critical fire weather conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday afternoon across eastern NM, where a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch have been issued respectively. Southwest winds begin to increase through the early afternoon Thursday, mainly around 20-30mph and gusting to 40mph. Winds outside of the RFW likely will remain 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Single-digit humidity hours is one of the main stories for Thursday, with upwards of 9 hours across much of the RFW area. For Friday, winds are forecast to be stronger and have a more westerly component with gusts up to 50mph, and the humidity values are forecast to be slightly higher (8-12% rather than 5-9%) with a few hours less of single-digit humidity. Even with that, still expecting widespread critical fire weather conditions across the FWW area. Confidence has decreased slightly in the strength of the winds with the newest model guidance along with when a backdoor front will shift the winds out of the north across eastern NM. For both Thursday and Friday, ERCs remain around the 50-75th percentile after last weekend's rainfall, which is the limiting factor for not including anywhere west of the central mountain chain in fire highlights. Winds and RH will still be near critical threshold, but confidence is not high enough for including those locations. Saturday looks to be much calmer, albeit a much colder morning given the passage of the backdoor front. A few gusty virga showers and sprinkles are possible in western NM Sunday, though with low to moderate confidence. A Pacific storm system looks to approach sometime during the middle of next week, bringing winds and precipitation, though there is low confidence in any details at the moment. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 72 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 31 69 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 67 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 71 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 71 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 60 31 51 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 38 67 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 25 68 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 74 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 68 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 80 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 70 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 29 73 34 67 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 30 75 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 36 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 43 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77  087 FXUS63 KMKX 152043 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 343 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather exists this afternoon. Primary risks will be hail and gusty winds, though the strength of the storms is not expected to be comparable to yesterday. Southwest Wisconsin and areas along the WI/IL border have the best chances to see a strong to severe storm. - Heavy rainfall from more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could lead to additional periods of flooding into Thursday morning. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of southern Wisconsin. - Additional windows for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through Thursday night: More thunderstorms are possible this evening as return flow is expected to advect appreciable SBCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg into southwest WI and up to the WI/IL border. Storms tonight may be a bit weaker than yesterday given skinnier CAPE profiles, but low level instability, effective shear around 40 knots, and some curvature in the hodographs will support another round of gusty winds and hail. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along the WI/IL border given the low level turning in the hodographs and low level instability, provided a low-topped supercell forms in the environment this afternoon. Storms will quickly grow upscale after sunset, leading to more widespread rain. Training thunderstorms may lead to more flash flooding tonight given the wealth of rain we've had this week. A Flood Watch is in effect from 4pm this afternoon to 7am Thursday for the expected rainfall tonight. A widespread 1 to 2 inches may fall, with locally higher amounts possible where any thunderstorms track. Storms largely move offshore tonight around midnight, with more scattered rain possible between midnight and 7am. Rain should then largely taper off Thursday morning, with dry conditions Thursday afternoon. A weak surface ridge will then move overhead Thursday night. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday through Wednesday: A strong cold front is expected to move through Friday afternoon and evening and is expected to lead to another round of severe weather. At this time the GFS depicts strong warm ahead of the front which will allow dew points in the 60s to return northward. Model soundings depict 40 knots of effective shear amid moderate instability of 2000 J/kg, with low level turning in the hodographs. This would support all modes of severe weather again for the area. At this time the SPC has included southwest and south central Wisconsin in an enhanced risk for severe weather. The cold front will then come crashing through Friday night into Saturday, and temperatures will dip into upper 40s to low 50s for the weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool and breezy, with breaks in the clouds late in the day. Sunday will feature similar conditions but will be a tad bit sunnier as a high pressure center moves overhead. Warmth is then expected to return next week Tuesday as a ridge builds over the central United States. The middle of next week then looks active again as a low pressure moves off of the lee of the Rockies. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR and VFR conditions generally exist over most of the area while IFR is hanging on over east central WI. Thunderstorms are expected to move in late this afternoon and evening into the west and grow upscale, leading to widespread rain over the area. Before storms grow upscale, hail and gusty winds will be possible with any strong storms over southwest Wisconsin and the WI/IL border. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight as a front sinks south over the region, becoming northerly by daybreak on Thursday. More fog is possible tonight mainly over southeast, east central and central WI, with some dense fog possible. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake this afternoon, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by noon Thursday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues until Thursday morning while this front lingers. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. The front will then clear the lake Thursday afternoon and northerly winds will prevail over whole lake. Winds will become light and variable briefly Thursday night as a weak ridge passes over the lake, with winds then becoming southerly and breezy Friday ahead of low pressure of 29.6 inches approaching from the west. Gusty northwest winds then return following a cold front Friday night. Additional thunderstorms are forecast over the southern third of Lake Michigan this evening into tonight. A few storms could be severe with large hail being the primary concern. Additional storms are possible Friday into Saturday, with a few stronger storms possible. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7 AM Thursday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  937 FXUS63 KGRR 152044 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 444 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday - Colder and Windy Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue Instability is slowly building this afternoon, with thunderstorms intensifying to our south in the more favorable environment. The currently warned storm in Indiana is expected to remain south of the area and with the ongoing stratiform rain, our afternoon chances for severe weather are low. A lull is expected during the late afternoon and early evening before the low level jet picks back up bringing another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots and MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be enough for some stronger to severe storms. Overall the primary concern tonight will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with lower chances for hail and winds. Risk for severe storms looks to taper off by 2am with lingering showers into Thursday morning. Instability will drop off overnight into Thursday morning limiting the lightning potential. As the upper level low approaches Thursday afternoon instability is expected to build. HREF mean surface based instability values around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 30 knots. Some stronger storms may develop with the best chances along and south of I-69, damaging winds and hail are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated spots up to 3 inches possible. Flooding concerns will continue with rivers expected to worsen. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Dry conditions return for Friday with highs in the 70s under a brief period of high pressure. Southwest flow ahead of a deep trough with a strong low level jet will feed warm, moist air into the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the cold front there could be a concern for strong to severe storms. The Day 4 outlook has shifted the 15 percent area further east likely due to the current trend for the front to move through during the early afternoon. - Colder and Windy Sunday Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures may peak in the upper 30s to 40s, however wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current radar loop shows an area of rain moving east-northeast across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan with lightning presently confined to south of Michigan. This activity may brush our southeast terminals early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are developing over Iowa and will affect the terminals early tonight. Another factor is marine dense fog over Lake Michigan, which is already producing IFR/LIFR conditions at MKG with the onset of onshore flow. We expect a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR restrictions well into tonight with the thunder threat continuing towards and after 06Z. For the sake of brevity, have not provided much detail after that, but it's looking likely that IFR ceiling restrictions will be common into and possibly beyond 12Z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog continues to impact the nearshore waters, a Marine Dense Fog advisory is in effect through tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight before transitioning to mainly showers. Winds will shift to the northwest Thursday but remain below Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Friday dry conditions are expected with southerly winds building throughout the day into Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms will also be possible Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries. Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches. Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...TJT MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  948 FXUS64 KHGX 152047 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 347 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday. - Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to instances of flooding of urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue across Southeast Texas through the remainder of the week while a steady southeasterly to southerly surface flow persists between ridging over the Gulf and a trough over the Plains. A weak shortwave impulse embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will aid in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest this afternoon. A few of these showers/storms could clip our far northwestern/northern zones (including portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods) late this afternoon into this evening, where we will maintain low POPs between 10-30%. The rest of the forecast area should remain rain-free for the most part, though a few sprinkles or a very isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out through this evening. Very little in the way of lift is indicated for Thursday and Friday, so rain chances remain below mentionable levels (<=10 percent) in our forecast products for the latter part of the week. Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week with overnight lows continuing to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the region and daytime highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s over interior areas and mostly around 80 degrees along coastal locations Thursday and Friday. An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Plains on Saturday, and an associated cold front still looks on track to push across our forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture will be in place along the approaching cold front, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.75 to 2 inches over southeast Texas per some of the latest forecast model guidance. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread over our area along the advancing front Saturday afternoon and evening. The deep moisture will bring favorable conditions for locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates potentially peaking in the 2-3+" per hour range, which could lead to flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. A marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall continues on Saturday for much of the forecast area generally along and north of Interstate 10. A slight chance of showers will linger into Sunday, especially over coastal areas. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front, with lows falling back into the 50s over our central/northern counties and in the lower to mid 60s along the coast on Sunday and Monday morning. Highs generally range in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday and in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Monday. Another series of shortwave impulses embedded within westerly flow aloft may bring a continued low chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR CIGs and sparse pockets of IFR should lift and eventually clear out later this morning. VFR conditions return by the early afternoon with gusty south to southeasterly winds prevailing throughout the day, later tapering off in the evening. MVFR CIGs fill in again overnight with IFR CIGs possible early Thursday morning. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate onshore flow pattern will persist through the latter part of the week. Small craft should exercise caution through this afternoon, especially over bays and near shore waters where winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots. The elevated onshore flow will keep water levels elevated, with values up to 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW around times of high tide cycles over the next few days. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with a continued increased risk of rip currents. A cold front will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Saturday night. Strong offshore wind flow will develop behind the passing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday along with building seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 88 / 10 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...03 MARINE...Lindsey  543 FXUS63 KDLH 152049 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Dry and gusty conditions are forecast Thursday afternoon leading to near-critical fire weather conditions for areas in Minnesota. - Rain and thunderstorms forecast on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through Thursday night... Fog is expected to develop once again near Lake Superior and become dense with visibility less than 1/4 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Thursday for zones near Lake Superior. Patchy dense fog is possible farther inland and an expansion of the advisory may eventually be needed if conditions warrant. Inland from Lake Superior will see dry and gusty conditions Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s. Around the shore of Lake Superior temperatures will top out in the 40s and 50s. Clouds may linger over along the Canadian border near International Falls and northwest St. Louis County which would keep temps a bit cooler in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to near 30 mph forecast. Efficient mixing will cause RH values to drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland. Near- critical fire weather conditions are forecast for most of our Minnesota area. If fog and low stratus persists longer than expected, the onset of the dry and gusty conditions will be delayed and RH values may not fall as low as currently expected. Fog and stratus to return again Thursday night. Isentropic ascent ahead of a developing low pressure system over the northern Plains will aid in cloud development over central and north-central Minnesota. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed once again. A chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snow, will nose into northern Minnesota ahead of the system. Friday through Saturday night... Low pressure system will progress eastward along with a cool front Friday. Precipitation is forecast to persist or redevelop over Minnesota Friday morning as the system moves east. Over northwest Wisconsin strong Theta-E advection is forecast in the warm sector. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor and over northwest Wisconsin. Favorable low-level hodographs provide support a tornado threat with any storms which can become rooted near the surface. There will also be a risk of large hail with any supercells which develop. The risk is somewhat conditional since the best forcing for ascent may lag behind the greatest instability. Farther west over central and north-central Minnesota, behind the cold front, precipitation will persist through the day as a mix of rain and snow. Little to no snow accumulation is expected during the day due to the high sun angle and light precipitation rates. High temperatures Friday will be a sharp contrast with upper 30s near Birchdale in northwest Koochiching County to the low and middle 70s over northwest Wisconsin. The system will progress farther east Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation will move out of the region Saturday morning. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow Friday night and early Saturday morning. Minor accumulations of around and inch or less are possible an no travel impacts are anticipated. Saturday will be cool with highs only in the low 30s along the Canadian border to around 40 degrees from central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin. Scattered rain and snow showers may redevelop in response to diurnal heating Saturday afternoon and taper off Saturday evening. Sunday through next Wednesday... Temperatures begin to warm up again on Sunday with much warmer, drier, and gustier conditions Monday. A cold front is forecast to pass over the region Monday night and Tuesday The front is expected to pass by without much precipitation. The timing of the front will play a role in high temps on Tuesday. If the front passes by Monday night and early Tuesday morning, temps will recover into the middle 50s to middle 60s Tuesday afternoon. If the front is slower, temps will be cooler Tuesday. Relatively quiet conditions persist into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Skies will continue to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon. IFR/MVFR ceilings will give way to VFR conditions by around 20Z. Fog and low stratus will develop once again tonight except at BRD. Low ceilings are forecast as well. The low ceilings will be tied to the fog. If fog doesn't develop, skies should remain VFR. Low-level wind shear may develop after 16.21Z as a southerly jet passes over the region. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light northeast winds will persist tonight and strengthen Thursday. Wind and waves may become hazardous to small craft near the Twin Ports. A cold front and area of low pressure will move over the region Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will back northwesterly behind the front and strengthen. Wind and waves will be hazardous to small craft by Friday evening. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over western Lake Superior during the afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong. Strong wind gusts are possible within a mile or two of shore. Farther away from shore strong wind gusts are unlikely due to the cold water temperatures keeping the lower atmosphere stable. Gusty winds and high waves will persist Saturday and conditions will improve Sunday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog is expected around Lake Superior tonight with otherwise clear skies. RH recovery will be good overnight with maximum RH values above 85%. A low pressure system will move into the northern Plains Thursday. Gusty southerly winds are forecast during the afternoon into the evening. Efficient mixing is forecast once the fog and low stratus burn off. Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 25 to 35 percent range for areas away from the influence of Lake Superior. Wind gusts of 20 to 28 mph are forecast over central and north-central Minnesota while weaker wind gusts are forecast over the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Near-critial fire weather conditions are anticipated. Warm and gusty conditions are forecast for Friday along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota east across northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over those areas during the afternoon and evening while a rain/snow mix is favored over central and north-central Minnesota. Precipitation will persist and advance eastward Friday night and Saturday morning as a rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts will vary from around a tenth of an inch over central and north- central Minnesota to an inch or more where thunderstorms occur in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Colder temperatures are forecast Saturday before the next warming trend begins Sunday. Dry and gusty conditions may return by Monday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...Huyck HYDROLOGY...Levens  803 FXUS61 KALY 152055 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 455 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Quick update late this afternoon to raise temperatures in most areas from around Albany south. Also lowered PoPs across the entire area through sunset due to lack of forcing and a well mixed environment. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk (level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week. Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low whether or not any convection will develop this afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we would like to see to give us confidence in convection developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this afternoon into early evening. However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms. Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated. Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather with the showers and storms overnight tonight. Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then, the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets. Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very late afternoon/evening. Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive, especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but instability should be waning by this time with the still relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region. Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front northward through the region and bring scattered showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and 30s to 40s Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z/Thursday, mainly VFR conditions expected through early this evening, though can not rule out a brief period of MVFR Vsbys in isolated showers through 22Z/Thu, perhaps with thunder at KPOU. Showers/thunderstorms currently across lower MI and the midwest should track eastward into the region between 04Z-08Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. Light/variable winds should trend into the southwest by mid/late afternoon and increase to 5-10 KT with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible at KPOU, KPSF and KALB. KGFL will generally have light northeast to east winds 4-8 KT before becoming south to southwest by late afternoon at 5-10 KT. Winds become light/variable after sunset through early Thursday morning, before shifting into the southwest and increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 90(1941) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...24/23 CLIMATE...07  252 FXUS66 KLOX 152056 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 156 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/105 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/135 PM. A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to 2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM. There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well. && .AVIATION...15/1505Z. At 1500Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees Celsius. For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop at KLAX, KSMO and KLGB. Also, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KSMX after 08Z. KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. If CIG/VSBY restrictions do develop, timing of return could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...15/1157 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in this same area Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox