039 FXUS66 KMTR 152101 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 201 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Seasonably cool temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast and across the higher elevations through this evening as a deep upper level low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will push through the region late this evening into Thursday morning. Not anticipating fog to develop tonight but patches of low level stratus are likely as the cold front moves through the region. Early morning cloud cover today is helping to keep our high temperatures cooler with 60s expected across the interior and 50s to 60s expected along the coast. Cooler overnight temperatures are expected Thursday morning across the North Bay where clear skies will allow for enough radiational cooling for lows to drop into the upper 30s. The rest of the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast will have patchy stratus insulation overnight which will keep lows in the 40s. Elevated terrain in the eastern Santa Clara Hills and Gabilan Range will be slightly cooler with lows in the upper 30s. Heading into Thursday we see the return of gusty offshore winds. A deep upper level trough will shift into the Northern Rockies and progress eastwards. While not a classic inside slider, the trough is enough to generate moderate to strong northerly offshore winds across the region. These winds will be strongest across the interior North Bay Mountains, the Diablo Range, and favored mountain gaps/passes. Peak gusts will be between 35 to 45 mph with locally higher gusts possible across the highest ridgelines of the Mayacamas Mountains (bordering Lake, Yolo, and Solano Counties). Fire weather concerns remain minimal due to the recent wetting rains but any residents or anyone visiting the mountains Thursday/Friday should be prepared for gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Gusty offshore winds will continue into early Friday morning before winds dissipate Friday afternoon/evening. The deep upper level trough will continue to progress eastward while a progressive high- amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. As the ridge moves in winds will ease and warmer temperatures will return Friday and Saturday. Interior highs will reach the low to mid 70s while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. The interior Central Coast remains the warmest with highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s with temperatures peaking on Saturday. Morning temperatures will be chilly on Friday with portions of the interior Central Coast dropping into the low to mid 30s (vicinity of Bradley and Parkfield). Unsettled weather returns late Sunday into early next week as a deep upper level trough pushes into the West Coast. This trough will move down from the Gulf of Alaska and is associated with a surface low pressure system moving into Northern California. Cold frontal passage is expected to occur Sunday into Monday with widespread rain across the region. Rainfall is expected to be beneficial with 1-2" across the coastal mountains and half an inch to an inch across the lower elevations. There is a slight (10-15%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons. Temperatures look to be seasonable to seasonably cool in the 50s to 60s Monday/Tuesday. Cluster guidance is in good agreement that a trough will develop but there is still some uncertainty as to when the trough will arrive/how fast it will progress eastwards. It is possible that this system will continue to slow down and the rain window will shift more Monday-Wednesday than Sunday-Tuesday (as it is in the current forecast). No real wind concerns with this upcoming system. Conditions will get breezier Sunday into Monday across the higher terrain, along the coast, and across mountain gaps/passes but it will stay below wind advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AM clouds/fog have given way to mostly VFR for 18Z tafs. Some coastal strato-cu will occasionally impacts HAF and MRY. A weak boundary will sweep through this evening/early tonight bring a return of brief MVFR CIGS from approx 03Z-08Z depending on terminal. Behind the boundary offshore flow and drier air rush in kicking LL moisture out with VFR returning. Moderate wind speeds are expected at all TAF sites mentioned above throughout the day and night with some experiencing strong gusts. Winds are expected to decrease slightly by tomorrow morning before increasing again. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few CU hugging the hills to the west. Probabilistic guidance brings frontal CIGS to the San Bruno gap close to 03Z and then over the terminal by 05-06Z. Once the boundary goes through drier air erodes MVFR cigs by 09-10Z SFO Bridge Approach...CIGS arrival and clear tonight will be 30-60 min after terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals... Around 03-04z tonight, lower CIGs will make their way through MRY, and SNS resulting in MVFR conditions. These low clouds will eventually dissipate out by early to mid- morning tomorrow and conditions will shift back to VFR, except at MRY where they will stick around through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...MM MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  421 FXUS65 KREV 152113 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 213 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds and light showers will accompany a cold frontal passage today into Thursday. * Sub-freezing temperatures will pose impacts to agriculture and irrigation Thursday night into Friday morning. * Unsettled weather returns Sunday into early next week with renewed chances of gusty winds and showers. && .DISCUSSION... A compact upper low and attendant cold frontal passage will promote gusty winds and light showers during the remainder of today into Thursday morning. Winds will be strongest from Lassen County into far NW Nevada where SW/W gusts of 40-50 mph will be common this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, winds will be comparatively weaker but still in the 30-40 mph range. Rain and snow shower chances increase upon the arrival of the surface cold front tonight into early Thursday morning with best odds of 50-80% near the Oregon border and across northern Pershing County. Any rain or snow will lean on the lighter side, but roads may become slick in areas across far N Washoe County and E Pershing County where there is a low (10-20%) chance of 1" of snowfall by Thursday morning. Showers should taper around or a little after sunrise Thursday once the cold front has departed. Post-frontal temperatures will be noticeably cooler for Thursday afternoon as daytime highs shed 10-15 degrees from today. More notably, further cooling and clearing skies will result in a very cold Friday morning as temperatures fall into the teens and twenties. Be sure to bundle up and stay warm if heading outdoors Friday AM, and protect vegetation that benefited from the historically warm March. Our weather pattern remains progressive as another upper low renews the prospect of gusty winds and showers from Sunday through the middle of next week. Confidence is low on the finer detail given that these springtime lows tend to be tricky to forecast. -Salas && .AVIATION... LLWS and mountain wave turbulence will remain at the forefront of weather concerns today amid increased winds aloft and at the surface. SW/W surface gusts of 20-30 kts beneath FL100 winds of 40- 50 kts will maintain LLWS and mountain wave turbulence impacts into the evening However, greatest impacts should occur between 06Z and 12Z when surface winds weaken but FL100 winds hold steady -- if not increase a bit. This is also the timeframe when a cold front moves through Sierra and Sierra terminals, compounding any LLWS impacts. A band of low clouds and perhaps a few light showers (10-30% chance) are possible (10-30% chance) will increase the potential for mountain obscuration and reduced CIGS/VIS across Tahoe and SIerra Front terminals tonight into early Thursday. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ005. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning NVZ001- 003>005. Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning CAZ070- 071. Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$  168 FXUS66 KOTX 152114 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 214 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Increasing rain chances late Sunday into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorm will taper off through the evening. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. Next round of showers expected for the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: The region is on the backside of an exiting cold front. Drier air is moving into the region dropping precipitable water values to under a quarter of an inch or 50-60 percent of normal. The earlier afternoon, evening convection will decrease as the atmosphere stabilizes due to ridge pattern building in the region. Ensembles have shower activity continuing over the Northeast WA and North ID through Thursday. It is due to wrap around moisture from the exiting Low. Rain and rain/snow mix are possible with up to 30 percent chance of half an inch of snow. Impacts will be minimal as surface temperatures will limit to no accumulations. Winds will weaken overnight before increasing on Thursday. Wind gusts will be in the teens overnight and 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Thursday highs will be in the upper 40s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday: Ridging pattern will bring a dry, warming trend for the period. Highs will climb back into the 60s and low 70s. Any precip chances are limited to the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle along the Montana Border. Amounts are less than a hundredth of an inch. Morning temps will still be in the 30s. Sunday through Wednesday: Weather pattern will change as a Gulf of Alaska Low is expected to move into the region. It is still tracking to move south along the Pacific Coast and into Northern California. The track keeps the regions warm, dry trend through Monday. Shower chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the Lows moisture finally moves into the Inland Northwest. A few ensemble members have the track moving the Low into Oregon and bringing the showers earlier. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Region is the on the backside of the exiting front. Trailing showers and MVFR conditions are currently impacting KGEG- KSFF- KCOE- KPUW- KLWS. Drier air is filtering into the region bringing VFR conditions to KEAT-KMWH. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. Overnight stratus will develop over Eastern WA and North ID possibly bringing another round of MVFR ceilings and increased precip chances for Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 29 51 30 54 32 61 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 29 47 29 52 30 59 / 30 50 10 0 0 0 Pullman 28 45 29 51 32 59 / 30 40 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 33 50 34 56 33 64 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 27 53 26 57 28 62 / 50 30 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 29 45 28 50 29 57 / 60 70 20 20 0 0 Kellogg 27 41 28 47 29 56 / 50 80 30 30 0 0 Moses Lake 28 58 31 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 32 55 35 59 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 31 58 32 61 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  779 FXUS66 KPQR 152115 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 215 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Post-frontal rain and mountain snow showers continue but will decrease coverage through Thursday night. Any heavier shower may produce small hail, while there is also a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Accumulating snow continues above 2500 feet and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect in the Cascades through tonight. The cooler airmass will also favor frost/freeze conditions tonight and possibly Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...The potent cold front which crossed the region last night through this morning has exited the region to the south and east. Behind the front, scattered to numerous rain and mountain snow showers will linger into Thursday as a closed upper-level low passes overhead. With the cold core low aloft, any surface heating during sun breaks between showers will easily destabilize the column, generating perhaps 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE. When combined with low freezing levels around 2500 ft, even a heavy shower could result in small hail reaching the surface. There is additionally a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, although limited instability will cap overall thunderstorm intensity. These chances will decrease after sunset, but may linger later into the evening as the coldest air within the upper low shifts overhead. Meanwhile in the Cascades above 2500 ft, snow showers will continue to produce accumulating snowfall. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect until 5 AM Thursday as another 9-12 inches of snow may fall, resulting in storm total accumulations of 1-2 feet at and above pass level. As the upper low exits eastward and heights begin to rise aloft, rain showers will tend to dwindle in coverage tonight through Thursday and the cooler air mass will see temperatures fall to near-freezing across portions of the region. Despite morning low temperatures of 32-36 degrees across the lower elevations of NW Oregon and SW Washington, the combination of partly cloudy skies and persistent light winds tonight may inhibit widespread frost formation. Frost Advisories nonetheless remain in effect from 1-9 AM Thursday west of the Cascades with the exception of the immediate coast, Portland/Vancouver metro, and Columbia Gorge where temperatures will remain relatively warmer. East of the Cascade crest in the Upper Hood River Valley, temperatures will more likely fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, and a Freeze Warning has therefore been issued for 1-9 AM Thursday. Agricultural interests and those with sensitive outdoor plants should plan to take protective action to prevent plant damage. Conditions will be even more supportive of radiational cooling on Thursday night, however the slowly moderating air mass may counteract that tendency. A Freeze Watch has been issued from 1-9 AM Friday for the areas most likely to see temperatures fall below freezing, namely the Upper Hood River Valley and the Cascade foothills of Marion, Linn, and Lane Counties. As upper-level ridging builds on Friday, drier and warmer weather is expected across the region, although there remains some uncertainty in the progression of yet another upper low over the Northeast Pacific. This low or open trough may move nearer to the region and bring clouds and rain, although confidence is relatively low and rainfall chances only reach 5-10% by late Friday night. -36 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper-level low or open trough tracking from the Gulf of Alaska over the Northeast Pacific will be the driver of sensible weather this weekend and into early next week, and the forecast remains sensitive to its low-confidence evolution. An upper low located nearby will favor cloudy skies and rainfall chances, while a position well to the west would see continued warm and dry weather. If it is located off the northern CA or southern OR coast, the pattern could allow sufficient moisture to move northward on its eastern flank to support convection along the Cascades. -36 && .AVIATION...Post frontal showers are expected to persist through the day with increasing chances for convection in the afternoon through at leas 01Z Thu. Highest probabilities lie along the Cascade foothills and to the north with around a 25-35% chance inland within the Willamette Valley. Have already observed thunder within the vicinity of some Willamette Valley terminals, but has yet to be widespread. Thunder is challenging here as often it may be one storm that pops up, while other times it can be a wide swath. In this case, because the flow is northwesterly (not as favorable) behind the previous system, would trend towards a more isolated thunderstorm scenario. Overnight, showers will slowly dissipate and clear. Dropping temperatures mean that there is a slight chance for frost formation over exposed surfaces. If skies remain cloudy though, those chances decrease significantly. Another limiting factor will be that winds are just slightly above what we would like to see for more widespread frost formation. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Combination of MVFR and VFR conditions with showers. Around a 30% chance of thunderstorms through 06Z Thu. Thunderstorms will trend towards an isolated scenario. With passing storms, expect gusty outflow winds leading to LLWS type conditions. Note that atmospheric LLWS is not expected, but rather environment induced conditions. -27 && .MARINE...Post frontal showers will increase probability for lightning over the waters through around 1700 today. Small Craft Seas persist due to a westerly swell combined with a westerly wind wave. These small craft seas are hovering right around 9-10 ft at 8 seconds. Have extended the advisory through Thursday morning, though will see a steady decline in seas shifting from west to east. In addition, there will be a strong ebb early Thursday morning for the Columbia River Bar. The inner waters will see lowering seas as early as early Thursday morning. Winds will remain westerly through Friday morning, then shift to the north as a high pressure ridge sets up over the waters. This summer time pattern will bring increased winds to PZZ253 in the afternoon. While not quite a low- level jet, we could see a short burst of gusts up to 25 kt. High pressure over the area will maintain more settled conditions through early next week. -27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>110- 114>118-123>125. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ121. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ203>205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  644 FXUS66 KSGX 152124 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 224 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures near average today and tomorrow with stronger onshore on Thursday: southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Winds turn offshore on Friday with northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer with weaker winds for the weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average for Saturday/Sunday. Then cooler and breezy early next week as a low pressure system moves toward the California coast, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty in how this system progresses. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Current satellite and 500mb analysis reveals upper level flow is turning more quasi-zonal as the trough from the disturbed weather earlier this week departs. As a result, temperatures this afternoon will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, but is also fairly seasonable temperatures for mid April. This zonal setup is going to be fairly short-lived as the next trough (currently pushing into eh Pacific Northwest) is progged to dig southeastward through the Great Basin and northern Rockies Thursday into Friday. This trough and a slough of mid/upper level clouds on Thursday knocks temperatures back down a few degrees compared to today. Of most highlight from this trough late week will be the wind, with strengthening onshore flow on Thursday, followed by offshore winds late Thursday into Saturday. The elevated onshore flow Thursday afternoon will be felt most in the mountains/passes, adjacent deserts, and the high deserts. Wind gusts 35-45 mph expected in these areas, with localized areas up to 55 mph in the mounains and vulnerable mountain passes. With gusts upwards of 40-45 mph in the High Deserts, a Wind Advisory has been issued here from 11 AM Thursday through 2 AM Friday. As the upper trough pushes southeastward and surface high pressure spills into the Great Basin, winds will quickly switch to offshore, forcing north to northeasterly wind gusts of 35-45mph in and below mountain passes, locally up to 55 mph within passes. Timing of the flip to offshore looks to be overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with the peak gusts late Thursday morning to around noon. Gusts look to wane by the afternoon hours, with another weak push of easterly offshore winds Saturday. The offshore winds bring in warmer and drier air to the inland valleys, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday, continuing into Saturday. The forecast becomes much more uncertain early next week as global ensembles continue to struggle with the resolution of a large upper trough set to near the California coast Monday into Tuesday. Regardless of the track of this low, temperatures will remain on the cool side to start next week with elevated onshore winds likely. Depending on the track of this storm, some light precipitation may be brought to southern California, but details will have to continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 151730Z...Coasts...Low clouds based around 2000 ft MSL are currently lingering over southern SD County (vcty KSAN). Scattering out by 1830Z with SKC expected through this evening. Patchy low clouds based 1500-2000 ft MSL expected to redevelop over nearshore waters and coastal areas after 06Z Thu. Coverage will remain patchy through Thursday morning. Chances for BKN cigs at TAF sites: 70% at KSAN, 50% at CRQ, 60% at KSNA. Otherwise...mostly clear and VFR conditions today through tonight. && .MARINE... Wind gusts to reach around 20 kts near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Munyan AVIATION/MARINE...KW  518 FXUS63 KDDC 152126 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 426 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to critical conditions, with critical fire weather conditions likely east to Highway 183 corridor. Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning. - Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely. - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today (Wednesday) will continue to be a rather quiet day in between storm systems. In the wake of storm system #1, much drier air will continue to move back in from the west and southwest, especially as winds become southwesterly on Thursday. The persistent southerly winds Thursday into Thursday night will allow gulf moisture to advance north-northwestward ahead of the much larger storm system #2, which by Friday morning will become centered near the Utah-Colorado line. The difference with storm #2 is the much colder air mass moving in from the north across the High Plains, out ahead of the deep mid level trough. Given the magnitude of colder air behind the front, a stronger than normal density current will develop, allowing very intense pressure rises behind the front, and the front will drive south very quickly during the day. All models have been quicker with the front with each successive run, which is a typical behavior as models catch up to the magnitude of cold air mass involved as well as strength of density current. Given that, we will also need to watch for possible High Wind criteria being met in gusts (58+ mph) for an hour or two in strongest initial MSLP rises (upwards of +8 or more mb/3hr). Numerous severe storms will develop along the cold front and in vicinity of the cold front-dryline triple point, but given faster cold front, initiation will most likely now be across our far eastern counties Stafford-Pratt-Barber area, or perhaps even east of there just east of our DDC CWA. The Latest SPC Convective Outlook has shifted the gradient in probabilistic outlooks east to account for the faster/stronger cold front push in the afternoon Friday. The strong cold front will lead to fairly robust temperature drop late Friday Night into early Saturday, with lows Saturday morning well down into the lower 30s much of southwest Kansas with 28F or less generally west of roughly Liberal to Garden City to WaKeeney. After initial collaboration with neighboring NWS offices to the west and northwest, we have considered issuing a Freeze Watch given the historically warm start to this Spring season. Similar temperatures are also likely early Sunday morning across the same general areas of far southwest and far west central Kansas while winds remain light before southwesterly winds pick back up again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00z FRIDAY/... Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. After 15z Thu, S/SW winds increase at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday, and as confidence continues to increase, we will upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and also add in more counties -- east to a Hays to Coldwater line. Given the faster moving cold front on Friday, widespread critical fire weather conditions will be shunted farther south, and given continued forecast uncertainty in cold front timing, we will hold off on any fire weather headlines for Friday afternoon. After a respite in fire weather concerns Saturday, we will see a return to windy/dry conditions by Sunday with very low RH's down to 8 to 15% for a few hours across all of southwest, west central, and even south central Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid  898 FXUS63 KGID 152135 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 435 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing spotty showers and weak thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of the daytime heating this evening. - Widespread critical fire weather expected on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area for the afternoon through late evening hours. - Strong northerly winds (peak gusts around 40-45 MPH) are likely on Friday behind a cold front. - Friday's cold front will bring seasonably cold air in for the weekend. However, with such a mild late winter/early spring and fast start to the growing season, will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM because of near or slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 It's been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don't expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in only the strongest of cores. Models haven't really been handling this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S. Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F. Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time. Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by. Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme SE zones, but this could be generous. Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn't overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze isn't until last week of April or first week of May for all but our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3 weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention to the cold temperatures. The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through the period. Spotty showers will hang around off and on through mid-afternoon, but given limited predictability and coverage, opted to just keep it VCSH attm. Breezy N/NW winds should gradually dissipate towards early evening, then turn to the S/SSW for the overnight. Winds will be breezy out of the S-SW all day on Thursday - sustained around 15kt and gusts around 25kt. Confidence: Medium to high. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Truly appreciable rain has been hard to come by this spring, and the near-term trends don't look any better. As a result, and because spring green- up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for more fire weather concerns. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Critical fire weather conditions will return in earnest as a surface low pressure system deepens to our west and southerly winds increase to solidly- breezy levels. Expect commonly sustained winds around 20 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent - lowest W of Hwy 281. As a result, a Red Flag Warnings has been issued for Thursday afternoon through late evening for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that diurnal RH improvement during the evening will be quite a bit slower than usual. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Thies FIRE WEATHER...Thies/Pfannkuch  278 FXUS65 KCYS 152140 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 340 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest winds will increase Thursday across the area, leading to critical fire danger over the High Plains and the potential for high winds in portions of Carbon county. - A very strong cold front will sweep through the area between the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday, bringing rapidly dropping temperatures and an abrupt wind shift. - Snow squalls and a flash freeze will be possible Thursday evening, primarily in Carbon and Converse counties. - Widespread snowfall is expected Thursday evening through Friday, though exact accumulations remain uncertain. - Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy early. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Active weather will continue across the area for the next several days with multiple different hazards anticipated. This will be driven by a powerful Pacific trough which is already apparent on GOES satellite imagery moving inland this afternoon. As this feature dives into the western CONUS tomorrow, it will amplify the downstream ridge over our area. This will strengthen the southwest flow aloft beginning tonight and continuing through the day tomorrow. Median 700-mb wind speeds per the LREF climb to around 45 knots late this evening and remain there through midday Thursday over much of Carbon County. These values are around the climatological 99th percentile. The latest probabilities for wind exceeding high wind criteria from the NBM are in the 50 to 70% range for much of Carbon county including Rawlins, Elk Mountain, Arlington, and Muddy Gap. In addition, the wind direction is favorable for some downslope winds into the Upper North Platte River Valley. While confidence is lower for that zone, it was enough to include the Saratoga area in a High Wind Watch. The best window looks like mid morning through the early afternoon on Thursday, but the watch covers a longer time period beginning midnight tonight and continuing until a few hours after the frontal passage on Thursday to account for a few overnight mountain waves, and higher than expected wind gusts with the cold front. We will also need to keep an eye on the Converse County area for a potential expansion of the high wind threat, but probabilities are lower there (10-40%). By mid morning, gusty southwest winds will mix down the surface across the entire area. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated over the High Plains, which will increase the fire weather threat. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the High Plains once again. The increased cloud cover may provide a failure mode for critical conditions, but confidence was high enough to upgrade across the board. Big changes will be on the way as a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. Expect this to arrive around 3 to 4PM for our northern and western zones, including western Carbon and western Converse counties. The Sidney area will be the last to see the front push through, with expected timing around 10 to 11PM. As the front passes through, expect an abrupt wind shift and rapid rise in surface pressure. Extremely strong frontogenesis will support precipitation immediately behind the frontal passage. Modest instability will be present ahead of the front, so we will need to watch for convective enhancement, particularly due to the late afternoon timing. The very strong mechanical forcing (as much as 3 mb per hour pressure rises) and potential for a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will put snow squalls on the table. While temperatures will be spring-like ahead of the front, look for a very rapid drop in temperatures which could add flash freeze concerns. Rain may flip over to snow very quickly, especially in Carbon County. Rawlins, for example, should see a high around the lower 60s Thursday, but may be below freezing by 7 to 8PM, if not sooner. Travelers across Albany, Carbon, and Converse counties should be prepared for hazardous, rapidly changing conditions including low visibility in falling and blowing snow and icy surfaces especially as the sun goes down. Overnight, model guidance remains a little split concerning whether some post-frontal overrunning lift will manage to develop. Forecast soundings for Rawlins show about 6 hours of a warm nose developing right in the middle of the dendritic growth zone between about 9PM and 3AM. A few ensemble members try to bring low-level dry air in underneath this very promptly, and cut into precipitation totals. Taken all together, there was enough confidence in at least some impacts from snow to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most of Carbon and Converse counties. These are the areas where impacts will occur Thursday evening. The storm system will slowly migrate eastward Thursday night into Friday morning, spreading cold air and snow with it. While precipitation should be more or less right behind the front when it first moves into the area, the surface front will race ahead overnight. East of a Laramie to Lusk line, forcing for ascent will not really get going until after midnight, several hours behind the initial frontal passage. For determining impacts, the exact start time will be fairly critical. Snow beginning pre-dawn should easily stick, and create icy and slick conditions for the Friday morning commute. However, if forcing holds off just a few hours later until around 9AM or so, after the strong April sun takes hold, road impacts in particular may be more limited. Due to this uncertainty, decided to hold off on expanding the Winter Weather Advisory east of Laramie. The most likely scenario still includes 1 to 4 inches of snow in Albany, Platte and Laramie counties, with a dusting to 2 inches further to the east. In addition to the snow, blustery north winds are expected with this event. This will lead to chilly wind chill values and the potential for some blowing snow. Snow might actually be a little lighter and fluffier than typical for this late in the season as forecast soundings show a fairly deep, saturated dendritic growth zone. So, while some melt on contact is anticipated with the warm ground temperatures, this probably won't be a typical late April heavy wet snowfall. Ratios are expected to be around 12:1 to 15:1 in Wyoming, and 8:1 to 12:1 in Nebraska. The last impact of this system will be the expected cold temperatures. After a historically warm start to spring, vegetation has progressed much further out of dormancy than typical for mid April. This event will not be record challenging cold by any means, but we will have temperatures far below average. In fact, 700-mb temperatures will be below the 10th percentile of climatology on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for some areas, and all remaining below the lower 40s at the warm end. As skies clear and winds die down, we should have time for rapid radiative cooling. Widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s can be expected by Saturday morning, which will cause issues for outdoor irrigation systems and sensitive vegetation. Those with such vulnerabilities to the cold temperatures are encouraged to make preparations for the cold weather while the warm temperatures last on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Saturday...With decent low and mid level gradients and northwest flow aloft, it looks breezy to windy. 700 mb temperatures near -7 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 40s west of I-25, with upper 40s to mid 50s east of I-25. Sunday...Ridging aloft moves over western Wyoming with a surface lee trough developing over our counties. With 700 mb temperatures near 5 Celsius, maximum temperatures will climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s west of I-25, with mid 60s to lower 70s further east. Monday...The warming trend will continue as ridging aloft strengthens and becomes more pronounced over western Wyoming. 700 mb temperatures near 7 Celsius will produce high temperatures in the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. Tuesday...Dry conditions continue as ridging aloft transitions to eastern Wyoming. Slightly warmer as 700 mb temperatures warm a degree or two. Wednesday...As the ridge axis aloft moves to the northern high plains, our flow aloft will turn southwest with strengthening surface lee troughing. Temperatures slightly cooler due to more cloud cover. Slight chances for afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms due to an increase in low and mid level moisture and low level convergence. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The flow aloft will become westerly today, then turn southwest tonight. Confidence is high, due to a ridge of high pressure aloft, with scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet, and also moderate confidence in winds gusting to 40 knots at the Wyoming TAF sites until 01Z, then to 30 knots until 15Z and to 38 knots after 15Z Thursday. Winds expected to gust to 35 knots for the Nebraska TAFS until 02Z, and again to 28 knots after 15Z Thursday. A reduction in pressure gradient and decoupling will help reduce the winds overnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419- 430>433. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ101. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ103>105-109>111-113. High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday evening for WYZ104-109-110-113. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  134 FXUS65 KTFX 152149 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 349 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for lower elevation rain/isolated thunder and mountain snow increases this afternoon and evening. - A cold front will transition rain to snow, bringing cold temperatures Thursday and a slight chance for snow squalls along I-90 tonight. - Isolated to scattered snow showers continue Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. - A warming trend and drier conditions trending for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: With the upper level trough translating east across the Western U.S., isolated lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers have developed. Precipitation will continue to develop, becoming scattered ahead of the front. Weak instability this afternoon poses an isolated risk for weak thunderstorms. Gusty winds across the Madison River and Beaverhead County valleys also increases ahead of the front as winds increases aloft. The cold front passage later today will bring widespread precipitation across the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front combined with weak instability brings a slight risk for snow squalls along and south of the I-90 corridor this evening. The main impacts will be sudden reductions in visibility and minor, slushy accumulations on roads. Snow levels dropping behind the front will help transition rain to snow widespread across the region late tonight and into Thursday morning. Chilly temperatures during the day Thursday will keep lingering snow showers throughout the day, mainly in Southwest MT with more isolated snow showers across North-Central MT. Increasing winds aloft wrapping around the cold upper-level low along the Hi-line Thursday will also bring breezy to gusty winds to North-Central MT. -Wilson On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds in Southwest MT Through the Rest of the Day: Gusty winds continue this afternoon in the Madison and Beaverhead County Valleys. The threat for high winds remain marginal, with best chances being with a shower/thunderstorm or along the frontal passage. Therefore, no changes were made to the current High Wind Warning. Snow Through Thursday: Warmer pavement temperatures are currently limiting snow accumulations to above pass level. The cold front will help lower temperatures, with moderate to heavy snow along the front helping crash pavement temperatures to freezing. The main changes to the forecast was upgrading the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning and downgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for the Gallatin County Valley. One uncertainty lies in the amount of QPF this system produces, as probabilities have down trended recently in model runs. Though synoptic nudges like the strong cold advection and aloft and frontogenesis along the front gave enough confidence to upgrade the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning. The main impacts will be along Highway 191 south of the Gallatin Gateway to West Yellowstone. Timing of the front being at night is ideal for moderate to heavy snow along the frontal passage to crash road temperatures in the Gallatin Valley quickly. However, there wasn't a high enough confidence in high moisture amounts to produce a broader 6-7" of snow for a Winter Storm Warning. There is a slight chance for those amounts still, especially areas near the higher terrain that could get some upslope enhancement. A tight snow gradient will likely develop in the valley/the city of Bozeman as a result. The Madison River Valley could see minor slushy snow accumulations Thursday, so they were added to the Winter Weather Advisories as well. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period A cold front is moving through North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening. This will change the wind direction at all terminals to more northerly and bring rain and snow to all TAF sites during this TAF Period. At the KBZN and KEKS terminals between 15/21Z and 16/06Z there is a a 15 - 20% chance for lightning. At the KWYS terminal between 16/03Z and 16/08Z there is a 15 - 20% chance for lightning. At the KHLN, KGTF, and KLWT terminals between 15/21Z and 16/03Z there is a 10 - 20% chance for lightning. During the duration of this TAF period at most of the terminals there is 30% chance or greater for rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow showers. During the majority of this TAF period there will be mountain obscuration across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Between 15/22Z and 16/06Z there will be isolated instances of mountain wave turbulence and low- level wind shear across Southwestern Montana. Across southwestern Montana this afternoon there is a low chance that a rain shower could mix down strong wind gusts in excess of 40kts. -IG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 27 39 22 45 / 80 50 30 50 CTB 19 32 16 44 / 40 40 20 20 HLN 27 42 25 45 / 90 60 30 70 BZN 25 40 19 43 / 100 80 40 70 WYS 24 33 12 36 / 100 100 70 70 DLN 25 38 19 42 / 90 80 20 30 HVR 25 36 17 44 / 90 30 20 10 LWT 26 38 18 41 / 90 50 20 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls