349 FXUS63 KSGF 152206 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 506 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. All modes of severe storms will be possible with the main risks being large hail and damaging wind. Tornado Watch in effect until 9PM for locations west of Highway 65 this evening. - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show deep southwesterly flow aloft from west Texas into New England. Upper low was located over Nebraska with a trough extending southwest of the low into New Mexico with another low entering the Pacific northwest. Surface front was shifting out of central KS into eastern KS where surface based CAPES were in the 3500-4000 j/kg and no CIN was residing. The morning convection and low clouds have kept some CIN values around 50-100 j/kg in the eastern half of the CWA, but this was slowly eroding and better CAPES were spreading east into the area. 0-6km shear values were around 50kts out of the southwest. Still getting some scattered showers/storms over our eastern CWA with the remnants of this mornings activity. Severe weather this afternoon / tonight: Expecting convection to develop along/ahead of cold front/dryline in eastern KS/OK within the band of higher instability. This activity is expected to initiate slightly west of the CWA with some discrete supercells possible which would include all modes of severe storms. As the upper wave and surface front shift east by late afternoon and early evening, storms may form into clusters or qlcs segments. Damaging wind and an embedded tornado risk will be the main severe weather risks this evening as the qlcs shifts east. While there is some timing differences in the CAMS, the main area of convection should exit the eastern CWA between midnight and 3 am. Thursday/Thursday night: Instability is expected to increase during the afternoon in the wake of any residual precipitation from the today/tonight shortwave. A secondary shortwave is then expected to move through the area during the afternoon and early evening with some of the CAMS generating additional convection over the eastern Ozarks. We are currently in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for this activity, in which the main risk would be with large hail. Anything that develops should move out of the area by the early evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Severe weather chances late Friday into Saturday morning: The upper level wave currently entering the Pacific northwest will continue to track east and into the plains during the day on Friday. A strong upper level jet out of the southwest will be southeast of the trough and move into the area late in the day. strong southerly winds in the lower levels will advect Gulf moisture into the area during the day. With temperatures and moisture increasing in the low levels, instability will increase ahead of an eastward moving dry line/cold front which will begin to push into the area during the late afternoon or early evening. Discrete supercells are expected to develop ahead of a dryline over the central/southern plains and dryline. As the upper wave shifts eastward, the cold front will overtake the dryline and storms should begin to form into a qlcs with damaging wind and spin-up tornado risks becoming the more predominant severe weather risks. The storms and front will continue to track east across the CWA during the night and potentially into Saturday morning before ending. This upper wave will finally end our persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft with drier air moving in behind the wave and surface front for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 506 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thunderstorms have developed across northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. This activity will continue to move east this evening. Some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible behind this leading activity into the early overnight hours ending from west to east. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms with this activity, mainly west of Highway 65 this evening. IFR conditions will be likely in the storms within heavy rainfall. Gusty winds will also occur with the storms this evening. Ceilings may could improve to VFR behind the storms, but are expected to drop back to MVFR late tonight into Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Camden  326 FXUS65 KVEF 152220 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1520 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing winds and decreasing temperatures through Friday. * Ridging returns over the weekend before another weather system brings unsettled weather to the region next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. The next weather system will be approaching from the north and begin to impact the area form north to south beginning late tonight and then into the Great Basin on Thursday. The two main impacts will be the wind and cooler temperatures. Southwest to westerly winds will average 15 to 25 mph with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range in most locations with some stronger gusts in the higher terrain. The wind advisory that is in effect looks in good shape. Temperatures will be fall to well below normal levels for mid April and only in the upper 60s in the Las Vegas Valley. The cooler temperatures will be short lived though. The strongest winds will be behind the cold front and down the Colorado River Valley late Thursnday night and on Friday with north gusts to 50 mph, with isolated-to-occasional gusts to 60 mph near Laughlin, Bullhead City, and Katherine Landing (50% chance). The only other item of note with this system is for some light precip (rain and snow) in eastern Lincoln County where snow levels will be crashing to under 5000 feet. Any accumulation should be less than an inch. A ridge will develop over the weekend and provide notable warming and much lighter winds. The ridge will be in place into Monday before the next system moves into the California coast. There is a lot of spread particularly with the timing of the next system and with these closed lows they tend to linger longer. At this point, south to southwest winds will develop ahead of the low by Monday afternoon and particularly on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy southwest winds with occasional gusts to 20 knots will persist into early evening before diminishing. Winds will remain elevated overnight, with sustained speeds of 8 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the southwest Thursday morning, with gusts to around 30 knots by the afternoon. A period of reduced winds is possible after sunset Thursday evening. A shift to the northwest is likely between 04Z and 07Z, with a few gusts to 35 knots possible with the frontal passage. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with SCT to at times BKN skies. Bases are expected to remain above 10kft AGL, with any CIGs above 15kft AGL Thursday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...West to southwest winds will prevail in most areas into the evening, with widespread gusts of 15 to 25 knots likely. Winds will diminish after sunset except near KDAG, where west winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue through the night. Most areas will see south to southwest winds of 12 to 20 knots Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 knots in the lower Colorado River Valley. Occasional high clouds are possible at times, but VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  710 FXUS63 KMPX 152221 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 521 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm Thursday, with potential for critical fire weather conditions across western MN on Thursday afternoon. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 late Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today through Thursday: Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed mostly sunny skies across the region, with light surface winds. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across. Radar showed a few elevated returns across southern Minnesota, and there is a small chance (20 percent) for rain this afternoon and evening. However, the majority of the rain and storms will stay well to the south across I-90. On Thursday, expect another day of warm temperatures as a low pressure system approaches from the west and brings an increase in southerly winds. This will lead to low humidity and breezy conditions across western Minnesota, so we did issue a Fire Weather watch from 11am to 7pm. Friday through Saturday: Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A strong cold front will move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, expect temperatures in the 70s and southwest winds, along with a chance for thunderstorms. A few of these storms should be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The storms should start as discrete cells, with hail as the primary threat, and then quickly grow upscale into a line with wind becoming the primary threat. The risk for tornadoes is a distant third. These storms will develop around the lunch hour near I-35, and then move eastward rather quickly into Wisconsin. Behind the front, expect breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph, and falling temperatures. As the overall system organizes, precipitation will wrap around from the northwest, with rain changing over to snow. As of now, this looks to be closer to the international border, but could have some light rain with a few snow flakes on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday through Tuesday: Dry conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday will remain cool with surface high pressure overhead, and temperatures near 50. On Monday the high will depart to the east, and southerly winds will increase bringing warmer temperatures with highs the 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 511 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Maintained TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm (LIFR). Fog will burn off by mid-morning. Considered adding a TEMPO at RNH for mist/fog Thursday morning but confidence is currently too low. Otherwise, VFR is expected is expected the entire period at the remainder of the terminals. Southerly winds persist across western MN tonight and increase in speed for Thursday afternoon. Gusts will near 25 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours Thursday. Farther east, light/variable winds will turn southerly during the morning and increase in speed. Gusts will reach 20 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon. KMSP...Opted to not mention any possibility for fog Thursday morning as it should remain east in WI. South-southeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots after mid-Thursday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...CTG  878 FXAK69 PAFG 152223 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 223 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern is expected for the end of the week and into this weekend as much of Northern Alaska remains in west to southwest flow aloft. Several rounds of snow and rain will are expected to periodically move from the West Coast to the Interior through the weekend. While snow and rain showers will be around the Central and Eastern Interior this evening, the most potent round of precipitation will be moving into the West Coast Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The potential for moderate snow from the Yukon Delta to the Western Brooks Range and perhaps the Central Interior is increasing and more details on this will be found in the Extended Forecast Discussion. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - High temperatures remain in the 30s and low 40s with low temps in the teens and 20s. Warmest temps are expected to reside in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley. - Scattered snow showers are expected to persist through Thursday afternoon, especially north and west of Fairbanks with up to 1 inch of snow possible. Expect a half inch or less in Fairbanks. - Light snow showers are expected again from Thursday night through the weekend with light accumulations expected. - Heavy snow is expected in the Southern Alaska Range, particularly along the Richardson Highway Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winter Weather Advisory Issued. * Snowfall accumulations south of Trims Camp may be as high as 6 to 12 inches with up to 18 inches possible in the higher terrain, away from the road. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Expected gusts up to 35 mph. - Mixed rain and snow showers in the Western Interior valleys today through Friday afternoon with mostly snow above 1000ft. * Snow amounts will be around 1 to 3 inches (most in the terrain) through Friday afternoon. * Another round of snow, heavier and steadier arrives Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures today will be nearly identical tomorrow. A cooling trend arrives on Friday with highs in the teens and 20s from Shungnak to St. Lawrence Island. Highs in the low 30s from Nome to Hooper Bay and mid to upper 30s in the Interior. * Expect a continued cooling trend into Saturday with 20s to near 30 hanging on in the YK Delta, teens and low 20s north of there along the coast and uuper 20s to mid 30s in the Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Periods of gusty winds on the northwest Arctic Coast continue through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph are possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility but largely remain over 1 mile. - Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... At 500mb, there is a relatively strong ridge at 570 dam in the Eastern Pacific as well as north of Siberia at 545 dam. In the middle of these is Alaska where there is a mess of shortwave troughs moving through. From north to south, the most prominent pieces is an elongated shortwave over the North Slope and a 524 dam upper low over Atka with a front extending into SW AK and towards the AK Range. This front will bring moisture from the Pacific, thus resulting in rain/snow over the Western Interior as well as snow showers over the higher terrain north/west of Fairbanks through Saturday. One thing of note is there will be significant upslope flow in the Southern/Eastern Alaska Range from Thursday through Saturday with 6 to 12 inches of snow expected along the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp. On Saturday, a longwave trough will be dipping south into the Bering Strait and will usher in much colder 850mb temperatures. This will result in a cooling trend on the North Slope and West Coast with highs in the single digits and teens in the Bering Strait Region and near/below zero on the North Slope. Lows will largely be from -5F to 5F from St. Lawrence Island north/east by Saturday morning with lows in the teens and 20s below on the North Slope. The Central and Eastern Interior will remain mostly consistent through the weekend as the coldest air stays farther to the west. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... A low in the Bering Sea will move east and bring moderate snow to the Western Interior beginning on Sunday. This low will phase with an upper trough dropping through the Bering Strait Region and should force moisture northward towards the Western and Central Brooks Range Sunday night through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. The southern slopes of the AK Range also look to get another round of moderate to heavy snow with this. On the north side of the AK Range and Brooks Range, there will be southerly gap flow which will result in chinooking and warmer temperatures, especially in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley and along the northern Brooks Range. In the Northern Interior, there will be chances for snow. Accumulations are uncertain but this can be a fairly impactful system for the middle of April. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. && $$ Bianco  171 FXUS62 KFFC 152224 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 624 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across north and portions of central Georgia through this evening. Fire weather concerns will persist this week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Relative humidity minima are forecast to be around 25-35 percent during the afternoons of Thursday and Friday. Surface winds will be southwest at around 6-12 mph on Thursday and west at 4-8 mph on Friday. Gusts to near 20 mph are possible on Thursday afternoon, with the risk higher for areas of higher terrain. 20 foot winds are expected to be similar to those at the surface, possibly 1-3 mph faster. Mixing height maxima will be around 6000-7000 feet on Thursday and 7000-9000 on Friday. Though there is the potential for some rain showers tomorrow afternoon into the evening, mostly over north Georgia (around 10-30% chance), wetting rains are unlikely. Note: Due to ongoing drought and lack of rainfall, critical fire weather conditions will be reached at relative humidity of 30% or less. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler/drier airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. More importantly relative humidity values will be in the teens to lower 20s Monday and Tuesday keeping dangerous fire weather conditions across the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR through period with sporadic few cu at 5kft and few cirrus over 25kft. Winds remain generally SW during day at 5 to 10 kts becoming light to variable each night. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 82 56 85 / 0 0 10 0 Cartersville 59 87 59 90 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 60 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 58 87 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 Peachtree City 58 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 61 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRS LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...SM  819 FXAK69 PAFG 152224 AAA AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 224 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern is expected for the end of the week and into this weekend as much of Northern Alaska remains in west to southwest flow aloft. Several rounds of snow and rain will are expected to periodically move from the West Coast to the Interior through the weekend. While snow and rain showers will be around the Central and Eastern Interior this evening, the most potent round of precipitation will be moving into the West Coast Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The potential for moderate snow from the Yukon Delta to the Western Brooks Range and perhaps the Central Interior is increasing and more details on this will be found in the Extended Forecast Discussion. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - High temperatures remain in the 30s and low 40s with low temps in the teens and 20s. Warmest temps are expected to reside in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley. - Scattered snow showers are expected to persist through Thursday afternoon, especially north and west of Fairbanks with up to 1 inch of snow possible. Expect a half inch or less in Fairbanks. - Light snow showers are expected again from Thursday night through the weekend with light accumulations expected. - Heavy snow is expected in the Southern Alaska Range, particularly along the Richardson Highway Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winter Weather Advisory Issued. * Snowfall accumulations south of Trims Camp may be as high as 6 to 12 inches with up to 18 inches possible in the higher terrain, away from the road. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Expected gusts up to 35 mph. - Mixed rain and snow showers in the Western Interior valleys today through Friday afternoon with mostly snow above 1000ft. * Snow amounts will be around 1 to 3 inches (most in the terrain) through Friday afternoon. * Another round of snow, heavier and steadier arrives Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures today will be nearly identical tomorrow. A cooling trend arrives on Friday with highs in the teens and 20s from Shungnak to St. Lawrence Island. Highs in the low 30s from Nome to Hooper Bay and mid to upper 30s in the Interior. * Expect a continued cooling trend into Saturday with 20s to near 30 hanging on in the YK Delta, teens and low 20s north of there along the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s in the Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Periods of gusty winds on the northwest Arctic Coast continue through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph are possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility but largely remain over 1 mile. - Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... At 500mb, there is a relatively strong ridge at 570 dam in the Eastern Pacific as well as north of Siberia at 545 dam. In the middle of these is Alaska where there is a mess of shortwave troughs moving through. From north to south, the most prominent pieces is an elongated shortwave over the North Slope and a 524 dam upper low over Atka with a front extending into SW AK and towards the AK Range. This front will bring moisture from the Pacific, thus resulting in rain/snow over the Western Interior as well as snow showers over the higher terrain north/west of Fairbanks through Saturday. One thing of note is there will be significant upslope flow in the Southern/Eastern Alaska Range from Thursday through Saturday with 6 to 12 inches of snow expected along the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp. On Saturday, a longwave trough will be dipping south into the Bering Strait and will usher in much colder 850mb temperatures. This will result in a cooling trend on the North Slope and West Coast with highs in the single digits and teens in the Bering Strait Region and near/below zero on the North Slope. Lows will largely be from -5F to 5F from St. Lawrence Island north/east by Saturday morning with lows in the teens and 20s below on the North Slope. The Central and Eastern Interior will remain mostly consistent through the weekend as the coldest air stays farther to the west. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... A low in the Bering Sea will move east and bring moderate snow to the Western Interior beginning on Sunday. This low will phase with an upper trough dropping through the Bering Strait Region and should force moisture northward towards the Western and Central Brooks Range Sunday night through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. The southern slopes of the AK Range also look to get another round of moderate to heavy snow with this. On the north side of the AK Range and Brooks Range, there will be southerly gap flow which will result in chinooking and warmer temperatures, especially in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley and along the northern Brooks Range. In the Northern Interior, there will be chances for snow. Accumulations are uncertain but this can be a fairly impactful system for the middle of April. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. && $$ Bianco  744 FXUS62 KMHX 152224 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 624 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above to well above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures each day through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday. 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal to near record temperatures continue to be favored into this weekend thanks to a warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temperatures each day may be moderated some by convective debris clouds, but the only real impact here is that it may lower the risk of records being tied or broken at any one location. For perspective, normal highs for mid-April are in the low to mid 70s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. We won't be anywhere near those normal values as this stretch of anomalous warmth continues to drag on. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. A weak shortwave moving through on Friday may bring a few isolated showers to the area. QPF is only a few hundredths at best with areas surrounding the Albemarle Sound having the best chance at seeing precipitation (15-25%). KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in almost 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with high pressure offshore and periods of high clouds. Similar to today, SW winds will gust 15-25 kt Thu afternoon. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern persisting through the week. Stronger winds likely in the coming days with tightening thermal gradient, most likely felt in the afternoons and evenings. An approaching front on Sunday will likely bring the strongest winds of the period and renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... This southwesterly flow regime will continue through the week across all ENC waters. Latest obs show the strongest winds across the Gulf Stream with the Diamond Shoals buoy continuing to gust to 25+ kt. Winds will lessen a little overnight as our thermal gradient weakens but will increase back to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt tomorrow through early Friday. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible across all coastal waters and sounds through early Friday, but they're expected to be less frequent. Seas are generally 3-5 ft with the exception of the waters off of Cape Hatteras where Diamond Shoals has been reporting 5-6 ft. Seas of this magnitude will persist through early Friday. Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday. As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night/early Monday with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft in response, peaking early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/OJC AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...RM/OJC  149 FXUS66 KEKA 152235 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 335 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain will taper off into this evening. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Generally, rain has ended for Del Norte County, but will continue to move southeast through the region. Rain totals for Del Norte County were mostly between 0.5 inches and 1 inch over the last 24 hours. Rain totals (0.2 to 0.5 inches) are expected to be less for Humboldt County with higher totals in northern and coastal parts of the county. Lighter precipitation is forecast for Trinity and Northern Mendocino Co. Trace amounts of rain (<0.10") are expected for Lake and southern Mendocino Co. Rain will taper off by this evening with the front exiting the region by tonight. Strong southerly winds continue to rapidly switch northerly throughout the region as the front moves through. In general, coastal areas and higher terrain locations will be gustier. Tonight, and especially tomorrow afternoon, strong northerlies will develop in Lake County, especially for the higher terrain areas. After frontal passage, much colder and drier air will advect over the region. In response, snow levels drop down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,00ft for Humboldt Co. This drop is not expected to create much snow as much of the precipitation will be over by this time. What this colder air will do is increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area on Thursday and Friday. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings. Thursday morning, Freeze Warnings have been issued for some of the coldest interior valleys, along with Frost Advisories for most coastal areas. The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rain beginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to 0.50" in Lake and southern Mendocino counties. DS&JLW && .AVIATION...A front continues to move through the region into tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions could be possible at terminals were light to moderate rainfall occurs. Gusty northerlies are expected for coastal and higher terrain terminals into tonight. As the front continues out of the region very late tonight and into Thursday morning, drier and colder air is expected to overtake the region. Clouds should dissipate and VFR conditions should ensue throughout the region by Thursday morning. && .MARINE...Winds continue to rapidly shift around to N and NW behind the passing front. There are indications from the NWPS model of localized pockets of steep waves from 6 to 8 feet mostly north of Trinidad this evening for the inner and outer waters. Therefore an advisory has been issued even with limited areal coverage of steep waves over 6 ft. Just about all the mesoscale models have gusts over 21 kt over a sufficiently large enough area to warrant an advisory for small craft. Northerly winds strengthen and steep waves build this evening and overnight, especially south of Cape Mendo. Thus, an advisory has been posted for the inner waters south of Cape Mendo. Gale force winds will be possible (20% chance) as early as this evening. Greater coverage and longer duration of gale gusts holds off until Thu afternoon and evening - per the HREF. A Gale Warning has been hoisted for the southern waters. Seas will build to max heights Thu afternoon thru Thu night. Steep waves are projected to reach 11-13 feet for the southern waters and 9-11 feet in the northern waters. Seas may remain steep and elevated on Fri; however a downward trend will commence and continue into Sat. Another front will approach over the weekend and could bring another bout of gusty winds. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ101-103-104-109-112. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ102-105>108-110-111-113>115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  450 FXUS63 KTOP 152241 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 541 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible (20-40%) mainly along and southeast of I-35 late this afternoon with hail and wind as primary threats. - A better setup for severe storms comes Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible, but plenty of uncertainty remains. - Much cooler this weekend with some frost/freeze potential, then moderating temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough axis is moving across the Central Plains this afternoon with VAD wind profilers showing a 40-60 kt speed max associated with this wave. Next trough is noted off the PNW coast. At the surface, low pressure sits near the MO River Valley with a dryline extending south from northeast through east central KS, followed by a weak cold front coming from north central KS. The scattering of this morning's cloud cover has allowed for the atmosphere ahead of the dryline to destabilize with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kts of effective bulk shear, per SPC mesoanalysis. A majority of the CAMs have isolated to scattered storms developing along the dryline by 21z mostly east of the forecast area, except perhaps areas southeast of I-35. The NAM Nest has consistently been slightly earlier and further west with initiation, probably because it is slower to bring the dry air east. Based on soundings from the RAP, HRRR, and RRFS, it appears that by the time better forcing arrives from the front and upper-level support, low levels dry out and become less supportive of thunderstorms. Whether or not we see any severe storms this afternoon will depend on whether all the ingredients can come together in time before the dryline pushes east. It's a short time window (3-5pm) for this to occur before storms are likely to be east of the area entirely. Thursday gives us a bit of a break in between the two systems. Winds quickly turn back to the south and strengthen later in the day and especially night as lee cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the next upper trough. This increase in the low-level wind field will help to advect moisture back into the area Thursday night into Friday. Before that happens, however, we do still have a dry air mass in place Thursday afternoon particularly towards central KS. While RH looks low, conditions appear too marginal to have confidence in Red Flag criteria and join our western neighbors in fire headlines. Although it is possible for wind gusts to 20-25mph to bring elevated fire danger to north central KS for a few hours. Heading into Friday, the next upper trough progresses across the Plains as well as the next sfc low and cold front. There are still some differences in timing, which will impact the exact locations for storms. In any case, instability and shear ahead of the front would be sufficient for severe storms. Shear vectors look to have some component parallel to the upper flow and/or the orientation of the sfc front, which would point more to a line of storms developing and growing quickly upscale. With all this in mind, could see some large hail with initial storms turning to more of a damaging wind threat, possibly with embedded tornadoes. Flooding could become a risk later if storms train over the same areas. Much cooler air comes in behind the front with highs dropping back to the upper 50s to low 60s for Saturday. Lows in the 30s Saturday and especially Sunday morning bring some concern for possible frost conditions, particularly north of I-70. Upper ridging and associated height rises across the central part of the country would then favor a warming trend into the early part of next week, alongside dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Models show a signal for some stratus and fog developing across east central KS. Right now, most of this guidance keeps it south of TOP and FOE. But the 20Z RAP tries to bring it into the terminals. For now have kept a VFR forecast and will reevaluate the IFR potential through the evening. A strengthening pressure gradient Thur should cause southerly winds to become gusty in the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Wolters  532 FXUS63 KGLD 152243 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 443 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night and Saturday morning for a hard freeze. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. A period of breezy winds in wake of a low pressure system is forecast to lead to wind gusts around 25 knots through mid to late afternoon. Winds are currently from the northwest but are forecast to back to the southwest this evening and remaining that way through the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg  785 FXUS66 KOTX 152246 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 346 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Increasing rain chances late Sunday into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorm will taper off through the evening. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. Next round of showers expected for the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: The region is on the backside of an exiting cold front. Drier air is moving into the region dropping precipitable water values to under a quarter of an inch or 50-60 percent of normal. The earlier afternoon, evening convection will decrease as the atmosphere stabilizes due to ridge pattern building in the region. Ensembles have shower activity continuing over the Northeast WA and North ID through Thursday. It is due to wrap around moisture from the exiting Low. Rain and rain/snow mix are possible with up to 30 percent chance of half an inch of snow. Impacts will be minimal as surface temperatures will limit to no accumulations. Winds will weaken overnight before increasing on Thursday. Wind gusts will be in the teens overnight and 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Thursday highs will be in the upper 40s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday: Ridging pattern will bring a dry, warming trend for the period. Highs will climb back into the 60s and low 70s. Any precip chances are limited to the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle along the Montana Border. Amounts are less than a hundredth of an inch. Morning temps will still be in the 30s. Sunday through Wednesday: Weather pattern will change as a Gulf of Alaska Low is expected to move into the region. It is still tracking to move south along the Pacific Coast and into Northern California. The track keeps the regions warm, dry trend through Monday. Shower chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the Lows moisture finally moves into the Inland Northwest. A few ensemble members have the track moving the Low into Oregon and bringing the showers earlier. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Region is the on the backside of the exiting front. Trailing showers are impacting Northeast WA and North ID but not expected to impact TAF sites this evening. VFR conditions expected through 12Z. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. Overnight stratus will develop over Eastern WA and North ID possibly bringing another round of MVFR ceilings and increased precip chances for Thursday morning for GEG-SFF-COE-PUW-LWS. VFR conditions expected by 17Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low to moderate confidence on the early morning MVFR stratus. High confidence on VFR conditions for Thursday afternoon. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 29 51 30 54 32 61 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 29 47 29 52 30 59 / 30 50 10 0 0 0 Pullman 28 45 29 51 32 59 / 30 40 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 33 50 34 56 33 64 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 27 53 26 57 28 62 / 50 30 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 29 45 28 50 29 57 / 60 70 20 20 0 0 Kellogg 27 41 28 47 29 56 / 50 80 30 30 0 0 Moses Lake 28 58 31 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 32 55 35 59 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 31 58 32 61 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  816 FXUS64 KBRO 152248 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy conditions continue each afternoon through Friday. - A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week. - Moderate to high chance (60-80%) of rain this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas. - Coastal and marine hazards are expected this weekend behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little change to the forecast through early this weekend. High pressure to our east continues to maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather through Saturday morning. Above average temperatures with highs around 90 (upper 70s-80s near the coast) and morning lows in the low 70s through Saturday. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts around 35 mph possible each afternoon. Gusts are expected to peak on Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday in particular will continue to be monitored. At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through at least Thursday. Gusty winds in conjunction with a new moon this Friday will likely keep the risk elevated through the week. A cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to tap into the anomalously high moisture content brought about by persistent southeasterly flow. Rain chances increase late Saturday evening through Monday, with thunderstorms possible. Coastal troughing behind the front may continue light stratiform rain through Tuesday. The greatest chance of rain and thunderstorms at this time is from midnight Sunday to Sunday night, with moderate to high chances (60-80%) region wide - highest chances along the upper RGV. Early rainfall amounts are still uncertain, but most likely around 0.5-1.0" between Sunday and Monday. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southeasterly onshore winds of around 15-20 knots, gusting to 25-30 knots, this evening are expected to diminish to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots within a few hours beyond sunset, allowing for MVFR ceilings to settle across all terminals overnight. Will continue to monitor for probabilities of IFR and adjust the TAFs as needed. VFR and breezy conditions resume by mid-morning Thursday, becoming gusty again in the afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots and higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate to fresh onshore breeze maintains moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines today and tomorrow afternoons, with brief gusts around 20 kts possible over the Laguna Madre. Flow increases Friday, leaving Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on the Laguna Madre in the afternoon. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely for all lower Texas waters in the wake of a cold front. Expect strong northeasterly flow with near-gale force gusts and rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...65-Irish  767 FXUS66 KLOX 152255 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 355 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/105 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/135 PM. A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to 2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM. There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well. && .AVIATION...15/2253Z. At 2120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 C. High confidence in CAVU conds for all sites through this evening. Chances that CIG/VSBY restrictions develop after midnight: KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), KSMO (30%), and KSMX (30%) KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conds expected thru this evening. There is a 40% chance of Low-MVFR CIGs (010-015) develop between 16/08Z and 16/16Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...15/1157 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in this same area Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  560 FXUS64 KLZK 152256 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 556 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon -Rain chances become more widespread Wed evening into early Thurs morning. -Well above normal temps Friday -Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north. Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR. The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR. Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri. Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun. Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week. By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect the central and western terminals of KLIT, KHOT, and KADF to have CIGS lower to MVFR flight category for a few hours early Thursday morning, additionally VSBY will lower to MVFR flight category across all sites on Thursday morning as a complex of SHRA is expected to move across the state. Surface wind gusts will be in excess of 20 knots for the terminals of KHRO, KBPK, and KLIT to begin the forecast and later Thursday early afternoon. A round of VCTS will be noted late Wednesday night into the early portions of Thursday morning as the activity slowly decreases in intensity as it moves from southwest to northeast across Arkansas. Expect a return for all terminals to VFR flight category by Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 65 82 64 87 / 90 70 20 20 Camden AR 65 84 64 88 / 50 40 10 0 Harrison AR 61 81 63 84 / 90 60 10 30 Hot Springs AR 63 82 63 86 / 80 50 20 0 Little Rock AR 66 83 65 88 / 80 70 20 10 Monticello AR 66 85 66 88 / 30 30 10 0 Mount Ida AR 62 82 64 85 / 80 40 20 10 Mountain Home AR 61 82 63 85 / 90 60 10 30 Newport AR 66 82 65 87 / 80 70 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 65 83 64 89 / 50 50 20 0 Russellville AR 63 82 64 86 / 90 50 10 10 Searcy AR 63 82 62 88 / 80 80 10 10 Stuttgart AR 67 82 65 87 / 60 80 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74  317 FXUS64 KSJT 152257 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 557 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in our area this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing early this afternoon over southeastern Throckmorton County. High resolution models have been consistently developing isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon along the dryline, roughly along and east of an Abilene to Ozona line. The one missing component to aid in convection is upper level support. However, should these storms develop, they will have 2500 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE, and 45 to 60 knots of deep layer shear as well. So, any storms that develop will have the chance to increase to severe levels, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expect storms to continue into the evening hours, ending gradually after sunset as instability wanes. Otherwise, expect another warm night with lows mainly in the lower 60s. For Thursday, temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. With even less support for convection tomorrow, will continue the dry forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 One more unseasonably warm day is expected on Friday before cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend and early next week behind a cold front. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. The dryline is forecast to advance east, just west of our forecast area, by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the dryline. A strong cap will be present, so confidence remains low that we will see any convection along the dryline. If a few storms do develop, they may move into our western counties during the evening hours. For now, PoPs were kept on the low side (around 20%), but will continue to monitor. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late Friday into Saturday morning, sending a cold front south into West Central Texas Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances. Rain amounts look to remain fairly light (generally under 0.25 inches) as any showers and thunderstorms should move through fairly quickly. Gusty north winds will filter in behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. An upper level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will approach the area on Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover. Cool temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned disturbance approaches, rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday. Generally low end (20-30%) rain chances are forecast. The continued extensive cloud cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will keep highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday. A steady warm up is then anticipated into the middle of next week with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and highs on Wednesday back into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 TSRA will be possible near the KSJT terminal through around 02-03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening. MVFR stratus will move back into the southern and central areas overnight and into the morning hours. Cigs should scatter out during the afternoon with VFR conditions returning. Southerly winds will be gusty during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 San Angelo 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 Junction 63 86 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ozona 63 84 64 86 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...42  571 FXUS64 KBMX 152258 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 558 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to recent dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama despite the potential for light rain amounts Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Broad southwest flow associated with an eastward-moving trough is shown to bring a smaller, low-amplitude shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday. Ensemble data suggests that the bulk of showers/storms left over from today/tonight's southern Plains activity, and any renewed activity on Thursday, will be to our northwest/north; however, some activity may manage to affect a few locations northwest of the 59 corridor. For a majority of Central Alabama, it'll be another seasonably warm and dry day. A larger, and more powerful, trough will sweep across the U.S. this weekend, sending a front across Alabama Saturday night. Based on model trends, this system has a better potential to bring some rain to a bit more of the state, favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. This certainly won't be a drought-busting rain, though. Sunday's highs will be near 15 degrees cooler and there is at least a low chance for some communities to reach the upper 30s Monday morning north of a Birmingham latitude. At this time, the wind and humidity forecast Monday morning is not supportive of frost. Temperatures then steadily warm through the rest of the week. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger conditions shall persist over the next several days due to drought conditions, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. MinRHs through Saturday are forecast to be in the 30 percent range though some locations may slip into the upper 20s. Daytime winds will sway from south to southwest near 5-10 mph with infrequent gusts as high as 15-20 mph, light at night. A front comes Saturday night with showers favoring locations northwest of the 85 corridor. At this time, locations near and north of the 20 corridor stand the best chance for measurable rain, averaging less than 0.50 inch. Behind the front, MinRHs on Sunday are currently forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts near 20 mph. There is some potential that Sunday dew points and MinRH will need to be lowered a tad. Winds become lighter from the northeast on Monday and southeast on Tuesday, between 5-10 mph, though MinRHs should be even lower, reaching the lower 20s for many locations. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KBHM: 88/1936 KEET: 85/2012 KANB: 89/1972 KTCL: 88/1972 KMGM: 91/1972 April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 85 58 89 / 0 10 10 10 Anniston 58 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 61 85 62 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 58 85 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 58 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 57 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89 AVIATION.../44/