630 FXUS62 KMFL 152300 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Guidance keeps the ridge/deep high pressure holding its ground across the SE CONUS and the FL peninsula despite a rather complex weather scenario developing over the rest of the CONUS. The ridge axis will slowly drift southward and closer to SoFlo through tomorrow as some of the aforementioned storm systems push eastward. This will keep the area under a warm and dry weather regime through the rest of the week. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days, and a significantly dry air mass between 1- 9km. Radar data shows less marine shower activity today, with very low chances of shallow marine showers making it into the east coast metro areas through the rest of the afternoon hours. Any shower should remain light and very brief. As the ridge axis moves closer to the area, expect pressure gradients to relax a little. This will result in shorter periods of breezy easterly winds, but still expecting some gusty periods around the Atlantic coastline this afternoon. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. Local air quality issues are likely to continue as firefighters work on mitigating the fire. Other smoke- associated hazards may include lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Max temps Thursday afternoon should reach the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s over the west coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control of the area. Winds will remain from the ENE light to moderate overnight, then back to around 10kt, likely with with no periods of wind gusts Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 70 85 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 68 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 69 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17  554 FXUS65 KPSR 152300 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 400 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return the next several days with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley. - After a brief stint of near and below normal temperatures over the next few days, readings will rebound with widespread afternoon highs in the 90s expected by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current objective analysis reveals a very active pattern for the central and western tier of the CONUS will multiple disturbance embedded in the broader flow. Meanwhile for the Desert Southwest, rather benign weather will exist through at least the next couple of days as low-amplitude ridge overspreads the region. After yesterday, when we saw our first day with an average temperature below normal since the beginning of March, and only the 11th such day this year, temperatures will bounce back upwards closer to normal thanks to the warmer atmospheric profile. Lower desert highs this afternoon will hover in the middle to upper 80s, while higher elevations locales can expect values in the 70s to lower 80s. A potent Pacific trough, currently spinning over Southern British Columbia and Northern Washington, will work its way further to the south and east, traversing the the Intermountain West Thursday. At the same time, another weaker system will be developing west of the Baja Peninsula. Both of these features will have at least some minor influences on our weather on Thursday as the northern system begins to tighten our regional pressure gradient slightly, and the southern low throws some upper-level moisture toward the region. The expectation is that some marginal breeziness will develop for higher elevation spots and the Lower Colorado River Valley with peak gusts 20-25 mph, with some higher gusts for the typical windy spots of Southwestern Imperial County. The previously-mentioned moisture will yield only some high cloud cover, but that could have an impact on temperatures depending on how optically thick it becomes. Current NBM highs call for readings in the middle to upper 80s for the lower elevations, with perhaps a few spots reaching 90 degrees. However, it would not be surprising if temperatures underachieve due to the lower insolation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns will exist through Thursday evening under increasing cirrus decks. Trends and timing of directional wind shifts will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours. However, speeds during the mid afternoon through early evening will be stronger than the past several days with occasional gusts 15-20kt common across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20- 25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  001 FXUS61 KALY 152302 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 702 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Quick update late this afternoon to raise temperatures in most areas from around Albany south. Also lowered PoPs across the entire area through sunset due to lack of forcing and a well mixed environment. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk (level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week. Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low whether or not any convection will develop this afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we would like to see to give us confidence in convection developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this afternoon into early evening. However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms. Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated. Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather with the showers and storms overnight tonight. Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then, the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets. Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very late afternoon/evening. Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive, especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but instability should be waning by this time with the still relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region. Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front northward through the region and bring scattered showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and 30s to 40s Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions expected through early this evening. Showers/thunderstorms currently entering western and central NYS should track eastward across the region between 02Z-06Z/Thu, bringing areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. In the wake of these showers/storms, a period of MVFR/IFR conditions (mainly Cigs) will be possible, with greatest chance at KGFL. Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after 21Z/Thu at KGFL, KALB and KPSF with brief, localized IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Winds become light/variable this evening through early Thursday morning, before shifting into the south to southwest and increasing to 5-10 KT by midday Thursday, with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible in the afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms through the period. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 90(1941) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...24/23 CLIMATE...07  586 FXUS63 KBIS 152302 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 602 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No changes needed to the early evening update. Mid and high clouds working their way east across the state. Mild temperatures and generally light winds into the early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border. A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible. Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period across most of western and central ND through the 00Z TAF period. The exception will be the far northwest and north central, along the International Border, where MVFR ceilings will approach from the north and may include KXWA beginning around 21 UTC. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected, but ceilings will be lowering to low VFR across the remainder of the north and west through the afternoon. Generally light west winds becoming light east this evening, then northeast winds across the north Thursday morning with southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area Thursday afternoon, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...TWH  002 FXUS63 KICT 152302 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 602 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening east-southeast KS. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend, warmup by next week. - Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline combined with increasing large-scale ascent immediately ahead an approaching shortwave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorm development by 2-4pm, generally east of a line extending from Eureka to Dexter. Strong effective deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kts combined with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg favors severe weather. However, strong forcing coupled with deep layer shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline should favor rapid storm mergers and a mostly messy storm mode, which should temper a higher-end severe threat. Still, could see a few supercells with large to very large hail, especially early on and/or if storms can remain a bit more discrete. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding are threats as well. While an isolated brief tornado can't be ruled out given the decent low-level buoyancy, unfavorable low-level shear and a messy storm mode should temper the overall tornado threat. Activity should exit southeast KS by 7-9 PM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector, as a potent upper trough and associated strong cold front/dryline combination approaches from the west. Strong instability combined with strong shear should support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. Storm mode and associated higher- end severe potential remains in question, as guidance has been speeding up the cold front, which would tend to support more of a messy storm mode, limiting the very large hail and tornado threat. Location and time...mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Hillsboro to Kingman between 2-11pm. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details the next few days. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another digging western CONUS trough next week along with returning moisture/instability, which could spell another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms across the region Wednesday through Friday of next week. Stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through Friday. The warmest days look to be Thursday and Friday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into late Friday through the weekend, model consensus continues to support a substantial cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with below average temperatures Saturday and even possible near freezing temperatures early Saturday and early Sunday over central Kansas. Rebounding temperatures back to above average levels are expected as we head into next week. FOG: With rich low-level moisture sloshing back northwest later tonight into a radiated-out airmass, thinking fog is possible later tonight into Thursday morning, generally south of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls to Newton to Kingman. Unsure of dense fog potential, so will let the evening-night shifts diagnose that further. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered storms will continue to affect southeast Kansas through the evening hours, then the activity will shift east of the area. Meanwhile low level moisture will begin to increase and spread westward during the overnight hours. This will result in MVFR/IFR cigs developing over southeast Kansas then expanding westward towards the Kansas Turnpike. Some patchy fog will be possible on the western edge of the low clouds around daybreak. The low clouds will scatter out later in the morning with VFR conditions expected for the late morning/afternoon hours on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THURSDAY...Increasing southerly winds in concert with low humidity and warm temperatures should support another round of very high to extreme grassland fire danger Thursday, highest over central and north-central KS, where a fire weather watch will likely be issued. Later shifts may need to consider adding Rice, Reno counties as well. FRIDAY...Strong northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger Friday over central and north-central Kansas. MONDAY-TUESDAY...Increasing southerly winds may support more very high grassland fire danger over central and north-central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033- 047. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ FIRE WEATHER...ADK  989 FXUS63 KIND 152306 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 706 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms this evening into tonight, greatest threat after midnight - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a weak MCV moving across northern Indiana and a broader surface low currently across Iowa. This system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet. As the LLJ ramps up this evening into tonight, thunderstorms are expected with the potential for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Through Tonight. The latest water vapor imagery and regional radar mosaics highlight an MCV currently moving through northern Indiana. This feature is expected to remain north of the forecast area with a dissipating boundary closer to the I-70 corridor. Recent high-resolution model guidance keeps the convection this afternoon north of the forecast area associated with the MCV with additional development across Missouri and western Illinois towards 18-20Z as skies gradually clear and instability increases. Diabatic heating is already pushing temperatures into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. This environment should yield MLCAPE values of 1200 to 1800 J/kg by peak heating. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts will be sufficient for organized multicellular structures if convection can hold together as it moves further into Indiana after 00Z. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. High DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates will support efficient downward momentum transfer in collapsing cores. A secondary round of convection is likely as the LLJ cranks up to 40-50 kts after 06z. This will sustain elevated convection through the overnight hours, though the severe threat should gradually wane as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset. Thursday through Friday Night. The aforementioned MCV is forecast to exit to the east by late this evening, leaving behind a trailing surface trough. While scattered showers remain possible on Thursday, the overall trend will be toward drying as subsidence increases across the region. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the low to mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday. GEFS and EPS output shows high confidence in a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies, and ensembles are in good agreement on a strong cold front crossing Indiana during peak heating. Given the robust dynamics associated with this system, another round of severe weather is possible, although timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions still need to be resolved. On the backside of the front, a 1030mb surface high will slide south from Central Canada. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night and Monday night are currently projected to be in the low to mid 30s. Those with sensitive vegetation should prepare for potential frost or freeze headlines as the seasonably cold air settles in. The EPS members suggest a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to southwesterly flow and more tranquil conditions to start the mid- week period. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. - Low chances for TSRA this evening, more likely after 08Z - MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs during any TSRA Discussion: VFR conditions remain across the TAF sites this evening as mid and high cloud continue to stream across Indiana within the southwest flow aloft. A wave of weak convection passing across Indiana will bring some light rain showers and isolated thunder to IND/HUF and BMG this evening. More organized showers and storms will be possible overnight as a cold front over the plains approaches and combines with a moderate LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest deep saturation overnight as this wave passes, but CAM's haphazard guidance is not building confidence on precise timing or locations. Thus VCSH windows have been used for much of the night. As the front passes on Thursday morning, a VFR conditions will become firmly set as winds shift to the WSW. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...White  630 FXUS62 KMLB 152307 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 707 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Warming trend will bring near record highs in the low 90s across the interior Friday and into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns early next week as a weak front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. - A period of windy onshore flow Monday into Tuesday behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thu-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal near 80/low 80s at the coast Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Mon-Wed...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers and a noticeable cool down. Equally as noticeable will be the strong/gusty onshore (NE) winds that develop behind the front. Sustained 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast to overspread the area from north to south late Sun night and Mon, gradually decreasing Tue. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Temperatures drop back to more seasonal norms behind the front with even slightly below normal high temps on Tue. Then warming back up fairly quickly beginning Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic currently north of the area gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high retreats south and east over the weekend ahead of an approaching cool front which is forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Wind flow gradually veers more southeast and weakens the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light synoptic/ background SSW-WSW flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift onshore (SE-ESE) each afternoon/eve associated with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds behind the sea breeze will be 8-12 knots. Seas 3-4 FT tonight/Thursday and 2-3 FT Friday through the weekend. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night behind the front with Small Craft Advisories likely for NE winds 20-25 knots spreading across the waters and seas rapidly building 7-9 FT early Mon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Continued mainly VFR conditions thru the TAF period. Will monitor for patchy fog development late tonight into early Thu, esp near/north of I-4 and may eventually need some TEMPOs. Mostly dry and will see OCNL SCT-BKN035-045 along the coast with onshore- moving stratocu. ERLY winds fall light/calm this evening and overnight. ERLY winds again on Thu increasing to 7-12 kts with some higher gusts - esp near the coast, with sea breeze development and inland movement. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep layer high pressure - at the surface and aloft - will maintain dry conditions along with a warming trend into the weekend. Prevailing daytime winds will be east to southeast as the low level ridge axis settles across Central Florida by Friday. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph coast. Nighttime winds will become light and variable. No min RH concerns along the coast but inland min RHs will fall to 30-35% Thu from Orlando north and west, expanding to include more of the interior on Friday. Given the relatively light winds, Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Afternoon dispersion values Fair to Generally Good Thursday and Friday, but pockets of Poor dispersion may exist over portions of Lake county. Warming trend will bring above normal highs into the lower 90s interior Friday through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 66 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 60 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 59 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 61 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Sedlock  134 FXUS63 KGLD 152309 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 509 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night and Saturday morning for a hard freeze. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 507 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCk through the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. Surface winds will be light through tonight then increase from the south Thursday morning with gusts to 25 kts through Thursday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024  641 FXUS63 KILX 152312 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 612 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50-70% chance for scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Some of these storms could be severe with all hazards possible, including heavy rainfall. - There is another risk for severe storms late Friday evening through Saturday. - Much cooler weather returns this weekend. There is a low chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance areawide Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave trough over the central Plains will pivot into western Iowa this evening and serve as one of the main forcing mechanisms for thunderstorm development across a good portion of the central US this evening, including central Illinois. Lingering rain showers will continue to impact parts of eastern and southeast Illinois this afternoon, with a lull in precipitation further west. Several shortwave impulses ahead of the main upper wave may bring periods of showers and storms working across the area from late afternoon into this evening with the latest CAMs showing isolated activity spreading in as early as 21Z/4 pm west of the Illinois River. Environmental conditions have been slow to improve due to widespread cloud cover from morning storms. RAP forecast analysis suggests SBCAPE will approach 1500 J/kg in western Illinois over the next few hours with deep layer shear up around 40 kts, which is sufficient for storm organization. Although the main surface front remains displaced off to our north, better forcing from the approaching wave should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Hodographs favor supercell/multicellular storm modes, posing a threat for all severe hazards. Although timing and coverage of late afternoon/early evening storms remains low, CAM output becomes more consistent later this evening as a linear MCS works through the area as the surface front nears. Although instability will wane some by then, the threat for damaging winds will still be a threat. Heavy rain is also a concern through tonight, especially over areas that picked up 1-2"+ this morning (along a Rushville to Bloomington line). Warm cloud depths, high PWATs, and the potential for repeating rounds of storms could lead to a localized flash flooding threat. The 15.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows pockets of 2"+ over parts of the area, though confidence in the exact location of these amounts remains low. A break from storms is expected on Thursday as large-scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper shortwave. However, the threat for more thunderstorms returns Friday evening into Saturday as a compact upper shortwave tracks through the Upper Mississippi Valley and sends a cold front through the area. The front looks to approach the Mississippi River Friday evening then work through central Illinois during the overnight hours. The highest risk for severe weather is currently expected just west of here where instability and shear will be strongest during a diurnally favorable time. However, sufficient CAPE/shear parameters through the overnight hours could still support the development of scattered severe storms. Temperatures turn much cooler by the weekend. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights look to dip down into the middle to upper 30s, which introduces the possibility for frost. Chances are lower Saturday night due to lingering cloud cover and breezier winds, with higher chances Sunday night when winds are lighter. Temperatures moderate by the middle parts of next week as upper ridging amplifies over the west-central US. Precipitation chances look minimal through much of next week with global models hinting at a wetter pattern setting up by the end of next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clusters of thunderstorms will move east across the terminals this evening, though losing some steam as they get into eastern Illinois. TEMPO periods were refined for updated timing, with potential for MVFR/IFR visibilities in the heavier rain. Following the storms, wind gusts begin to drop off somewhat late in the night, as winds shift from south to west. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Geelhart  286 FXUS65 KPUB 152317 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 517 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday, with portions of the southern plains added to a Fire Weather Watch for Friday. - A cold front arrives Friday, which will bring rain and snow chances, along with much colder temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for all of our plains for early Saturday morning! - We warm up and dry out for Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight.. Gap flow areas are likely to continue seeing spotty elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon. The San Luis Valley and the Arkansas River Valley may also see briefly critical conditions late this afternoon, but conditions are not expected to be widespread or long-lived enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. Overnight low temperatures will be near normal in the high country and for mountain valleys, but will be warmer than normal across the plains, with most locations only cooling into the upper 30s and 40s. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.. Models bring an upper low into the northern Rockies throughout the day tomorrow. This will increase southwest flow over our region, leading to a higher end Red Flag day for much of south central and southeast Colorado. Southwest winds gusting to 60 mph are likely over the high country, with gusts to 50 mph possible over portions of the San Luis Valley, and gusts to 40 mph over the plains. Single digit relative humidity values are expected on the plains, with humidity values in the low to mid teens over the high country and the San Luis Valley. Daytime highs tomorrow look to soar back into the mid 80s across much of the plains with strong downsloping over the region. Despite seeing temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, all three of our climate sites look to be at least 4 or 5 degrees below standing records for tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most zones (only the San Juans are excluded) for tomorrow afternoon from 11 AM through 11 PM. The late expiration time is due to continued gusty winds and continued mixing late into the night. Much of our plains look to only see moisture recoveries into the 20% range heading into Friday morning, however, the timing of our incoming cold front could change that.. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Saturday.. Models are still in disagreement about timing for the cold front that should come through sometime on Friday. The GFS has now pushed timing all the way up into the late Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. The NAM, EC, and Canadian all have various timing ranging from early Friday morning to later Friday afternoon. This frontal passage timing will ultimately decide several things. Most importantly, it will determine critical fire weather chances versus precipitation chances across portions of our plains. If model solutions that bring the front through earlier verify, daytime highs may end up being cooler than currently forecast, and precip chances may end up starting slightly earlier in the afternoon on Friday as well once upslope gets started. If the front is delayed, daytime highs may end up being several degrees warmer, especially across our southern plains, and widespread critical fire weather conditions may also be possible. For now, a fire weather watch has been issued for Las Animas and Baca counties for Friday afternoon, where the front is most likely to come through late enough in the day to warrant several hours or highlights in the late morning and early afternoon. Further north, where the front comes through earlier, chances for rain and snow showers look to hold off for several hours after the frontal passage as temperatures cool and upslope gets going. The central mountains are likely to see snow showers early Friday morning, with much of the Pikes Peak region seeing light snow chances later in the morning. Snow amounts will be minimal over the Palmer Divide for the Friday morning commute, though again this may change if the front comes through sooner. Total accumulations for the central mountains from Thursday night through Saturday morning look to be around 1 to 3 inches, with similar totals for the higher elevations of Teller and El Paso counties. The heaviest snowfall rates for the I-25 corridor over the Palmer Divide look to fall Friday afternoon as of this writing. Precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning though, with lots of clearing across the region. This system is much colder than what we've seen this season, and our entire plains are likely to see hard freeze conditions after vegetation has bloomed/leafed out across the region due to abnormally warm conditions the past few months. For this reason, a Freeze Watch has been hoisted for all of our plains for Saturday morning. Though we are several week ahead of our "normal" window for issuance of late season freeze highlights, we want to point out that sensitive vegetation and irrigation systems will be at risk this weekend! We remain around 5 degrees or so cooler than normal heading into Saturday afternoon, with most of our plains only warming into the 60s under clearing skies and mainly dry conditions. Just for awareness, the mean date of last freeze for our climate sites are as follows: Pueblo: April 29th Colorado Springs: May 8th Alamosa: June 7th Sunday Onwards.. Ridging sets up over the western conus for Sunday through the first half of next week. This will bring us back into the 70s on the plains for Sunday as we transition into a warming and drying pattern, but likely back well into the 80s for Monday through Wednesday. Humidity values look to be very low given the dry airmass and much warmer than normal temperatures, but winds look to be sub- critical, at least for Sunday and Monday, as ridging develops. Another system takes shape out west through the second half of the week, which may lead to enough increase in southwest flow to bring in another round of critical fire weather conditions by Wednesday, or possibly even Tuesday, though it is too early to tell at this stage. Thunderstorms and severe weather may be possible with this next system later next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light tonight into tomorrow morning, but will become breezy from the south to southwest during the afternoon at each of the taf sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>222-224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...HODANISH  604 FXUS63 KOAX 152318 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm chances continue in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Large hail will be the primary concern, though damaging wind gusts and brief tornado remain possible. - Warm, dry and windy conditions will brining elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday, particularly in east-central Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday. Cooler air arrives Friday night into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning lows will dip below freezing for some locations, with highs only peaking in the 50s on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today and Tomorrow... An upper-level wave ejecting northward into the central Plains is pushing an attendant surface low, currently positioned in southeast Nebraska, northeastward into central Iowa through the day. This feature will draw a warm sector northward in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon with a weak convergent boundary draped generally along to just north of the I-80 corridor. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 70s. Instability will increase through the day, with a narrow ribbon of SBCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg wrapping into the mid-MO Valley. A few elevated supercells have already track across northeast Nebraska late this morning, producing severe hail. The main questions will be if the warm sector pushes eastward outside of the forecast area before surface base convection occurs. The latest CAM guidance varies with some members initiating storms near the Missouri River longitude, while others don't develop storms until the feature is further into western Iowa during the later afternoon hours. If surface based storms are able to initiate in the forecast area, an initial supercell storm mode is possible with large hail the primary hazard given mid-level lapse rates approaching 8-8.5 deg/km. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with any surface based storm able to establish itself given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and backing surface winds, especially near the aforementioned convergent boundary. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will also be on the table. Additional chances for elevated supercells, with hail the primary hazard, will continue north of the low through the afternoon. A brief period of mid-level ridging will slide across the area on Thursday, bringing a short break from the severe weather potential along with the return of fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs temperatures are expected to peak in the 80s, approximately 15-20 degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 15-35% range, with the lowest values expected towards east-central Nebraska. Gusty south- southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph tomorrow afternoon will help to elevate fire weather concerns, though confidence in winds reaching Red Flag Warning criteria is low. Most EPS/EPS-AIFS members keep winds capped around 30 mph. Additionally, RAP model soundings top out winds at the top of the mixed layer at 20-25 kts. Therefore, we are continuing the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday and Beyond... Severe weather potential returns on Friday as an upper-level trough pushes into the central and northern Plains. An associated surface low is expected to push across Nebraska through the day, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the region. High temperatures will depend on where the cold front is before peak daytime heating, with values peaking in the 70s to low 80s ahead of the front and the 60s behind the front. Gusty northwesterly winds of 30-35 mph will move in behind the front. Convective initiation is expected along the cold front with strong forcing for ascent and ample instability ahead of the boundary. Yet again, the main question will be how quickly the front crashes through the area. SPC currently has far southeast Nebraska clipped in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) draped further west. An initial supercell storm mode capable of all severe weather hazards looks probable for any storms that develop in the warm sector. We will have to see how things trend in regards to cold front placement into the afternoon as the system approaches. Any lingering precipitation will work its way out into Saturday morning, with a chance (10-20%) for a brief rain/snow mix on the back side of the departing precipitation shield. The post-frontal airmass will certainly be felt on Saturday, with morning lows temperatures dipping in the 30s, followed by afternoon highs topping out in the 50s. Lows again Sunday morning will drop near freezing for most locations, with the upper 20s expected across northeast Nebraska. Ensure any sensitive vegetation is protected and hoses are disconnected. Temperatures will gradually rebound later Sunday into early next week as mid-level ridging pivots into the central Plains. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 60s, rising to the 70s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the region should continue to slowly weaken and dissipate over the next couple of hours. A stronger thunderstorm is ongoing in the vicinity of Grand Island, Nebraska. The chance of this thunderstorm reaching LNK is very low at this time. This activity is associated with an area of low pressure centered near the region. Winds are largely out of northwest, but are anticipated to become light and variable as the low pressure moves east of the area and surface high pressure fills in. Skies will clear of any lingering low-level cumulus after sunset. Surface high pressure moves east of the area during the morning hours on Thursday. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly as this occurs. Wind speeds begin to increase as our next weather system begins to approach the region as well. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Chehak  507 FXUS65 KFGZ 152318 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 418 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Pleasant weather through the rest of today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance for isolated showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Light winds with near-normal temperatures are in store through the rest of today as the gradient aloft relaxes and heights recover following the passage of a shortwave trough yesterday. A much drier airmass is also in place, putting an end to precipitation chances for the near-term. Thursday through Friday...A quick shortwave will brush past northern Arizona. The the trajectory of the disturbance will keep any precipitation well to our north, and the main impact will be strong winds. Recent model guidance has maintained a slightly more northward trajectory, and thus have maintained slightly lower magnitude of peak gusts. The current forecast calls for gusts to 30- 40 mph on Thursday as the trough approaches. Friday afternoon will see cooler daytime temperatures along with west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph across much of the area, however gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible in far eastern AZ. Saturday and beyond...A dry northeast flow will develop into Saturday. Temperatures will be chilly on Saturday morning, falling into the teens to mid 20s for high elevation sites that are protected from wind. Another shortwave trough will approach AZ on Sunday, bringing breezy southerly winds, higher dewpoints, and even a chances for isolated showers. A deeper Pacific trough looks to come onshore sometime early-middle next week, but there is plenty of spread in the track and timing, and confidence is low in the impacts. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/00Z through Friday 17/00Z...VFR conditions with W-SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Expect SW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 25-35 kts after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR conditions. N-NW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday, shifting to N-NE Friday night, then becoming NE-E 5-15 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday, becoming north/northwest 10-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH 10-20% each day. Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds north/northeast 5-15 mph on Saturday, shifting south/southeast on Sunday, then southerly on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  733 FXUS64 KLUB 152319 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible off the caprock late Thursday and again late on Friday. - Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock. - Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The weather pattern has returned to more typical early spring weather with a restoration of increased fire weather conditions which will continue through much of the remainder of the week. A positively tilted trough axis will finally move overhead tonight with weak short wave ridging on Thursday. Today and tomorrow afternoon will see extreme boundary layer mixing up to approximately 600mb. However, winds through this layer will not be entirely strong with values on the order of up to 25kt or so. For today, winds will become breezy behind the dryline due to an increase in the surface pressure gradient. The extreme mixing will also bring very dry air aloft down to the surface with forecast surface dew points close to or in the single digits. On Thursday, a deepening upper trough in the Intermountain West will result in stronger surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Surface winds across West Texas will respond by increasing out of the southwest. The downsloping winds will also contribute to very warm temperatures on the order of 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages for today and Thursday afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As the aforementioned upper level trough progresses across the Rockies, low level moisture will return to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. A strong low level jet and warm advection will also develop in response to this upper trough. Models do show weak isentropic ascent late Thursday into early Friday but the return moisture is expected to be very shallow. Areas off the caprock and especially the southern Rolling Plains will see the best chances of any light rain showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Elevated parcels would have a significant amount of instability to take advantage of if enough moisture is present. On Friday, the dryline will quickly mix eastward with a surface cyclone moving from the Central Plains into the Midwest with the upper trough taking a similar path. Unlike Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, we will see an increase in winds aloft as this upper trough progresses eastward. Boundary layer mixing heights will not change much for Friday but stronger winds in the boundary layer will bring stronger surface winds. Temperatures for Friday are currently forecast to be a few degrees shy of record values. All of this will be followed by a very strong cold front Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Surface winds may approach advisory level speeds during this time period as a 1025mb surface ridge spills into the Plains. Much cooler temperatures will follow this front into at least early next week with temperatures below seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR and west-southwest winds will continue through this TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30  994 FXUS65 KRIW 152320 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy southwest winds are expected today, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Wind prone locations could see gusts up to 50 mph. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be mild across the area. - Snow chances (70-90%) increase this afternoon across west and northwest Wyoming. Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread morning lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 1PM/19Z radar imagery shows light snow showers over the Tetons, indicating that the first push of Pacific moisture, associated with the winter weather system, has arrived. Expect only rain across Jackson Valley and Star Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. Snowfall rates for the northwest mountains and the Wind River Mountains will increase by 6PM MDT today as the upper level trough begins to push into the Northern Rockies, with moderate to heavy snow expected. Anticipate winter travel conditions across Teton Pass, Togwotee Pass, and South Pass with snow and gusty 30 to 50 mph winds. As for the western valleys, temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing until after midnight tonight. This means that rain will chance over to snow after midnight as well. Expect only light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for the western valleys through Thursday night. As mentioned in the morning discussion, precipitation will spread east across the state during the day on Thursday as the potent cold front pushes east. Expect precipitation to begin as rain ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 50s. On Thursday, the cold front is expected to pass through sometime in the noon to 3PM timeframe for Johnson County and 3PM and 7PM timeframe elsewhere and quickly drop temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow due to the quick temperature drop during these timeframes. Also, widespread windy conditions are expected due to the tight temperature gradient both ahead and behind the front. Gusty 30 to 50 mph are forecast for most low elevations. Near and in Buffalo, northerly gusts of 60 mph are possible behind the front Thursday night. Although snow amounts for Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties are in the generally in the 1 to 5 inch range, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas due to wind and snow. The gusty 30 to 50 mph winds combined with light snow will no doubt cause reduced visibilities and periods of hazardous travel. Additionally, due to the strong temperature drop with the cold front, and thus increased frontogenesis, convective snow bands/snow squalls are possible across eastern Fremont, Johnson, and Natrona Counties along the front Thursday evening and overnight. This banding could also occur across eastern Sweetwater, including along I-80, but confidence is too low to include this area in the hazard. Any snow squall or convective snow band will cause sudden drops in visibility and create very hazardous travel conditions. Confidence remains very high (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or less) Friday morning as well. It is necessary to note that Winter Weather Advisories have also been issued for the Bighorns, Casper Mountain, and the Rattlesnake Mountains for the same reasons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions across nearly all terminals to start the TAF period. KJAC is the only exception as showers begin to move into the area leading to lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions. A nearing disturbance will bring rounds of precipitation to western terminals and increased winds to nearly all terminals this TAF period. KJAC as mentioned earlier will see showers through the evening. There will be some spotty showers after 02Z Thursday with another round of precipitation likely by 09Z. By this time temperatures should drop to near or below freezing transitioning from rain showers to snow showers. Winds remain elevated for the start of the period at nearly all terminals with gusts of 20 to 35 knots possible through the evening. Winds decrease slightly after sunset with breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots persisting through the overnight. A cold front begins to enter the state Thursday morning which will bring precipitation chances to KCOD, KPNA, KBPI, and KJAC around the end of the TAF period. Winds will start to increase ahead of the frontal passage with many terminals seeing winds increase by around 15Z Thursday. Aside from increasing winds all terminals will likely see lowering ceilings around this time. Mountain obscuration will be persistent through the TAF period especially across western mountains with obscuration increasing by the end of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski/Rowe  036 FXUS65 KABQ 152320 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeast and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A tranquil afternoon and evening continues across New Mexico as weak west to northwest flow entrenches the state. A few northwest breezes are likely to continue through the afternoon, but will subside by sunset. Tonight looks to be clear and cool (lows in the high 30s to mid 20s) , though should be a few degrees warmer than last night given higher pressure heights and weak upper level flow preventing prime radiational cooling. Thursday turns more active with two approaching trough axes from the west. The more northern trough axis, located over UT, looks to develop a surface low in eastern CO, extending down into northeast NM. Alongside this, a minor but noted pressure gradient increases at 500mb and 700mb. These factors combined look to bring breezy to windy conditions across the state, most notably in eastern NM. Well- mixed atmospheric layers should bring about no issue in transferring the elevated 700mb flow (~30kts) to the surface. Overall, winds look to be southwest 15-25mph, except 20-30mph in northeast NM with gusts up to 40mph. Relative humidity also looks to drop into the single digits across the state, and that combination of wind and dry conditions leads to favorable conditions of rapid fire spread. Continue to be mindful about preventing sparks when outdoors. Temperatures also look to remain in the low to mid 70s across western and central NM and getting as high as the mid 80s across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Not a whole lot of rest and reprieve from the winds going into early Friday morning. A 250mb speed max, associated with the more southern trough axis mentioned in the short term, starts to encroach from the south into the forecast area. In turn, 500mb and 700mb winds also increase from south to north over time through Thursday night/Friday morning. Thus, the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains look to get increased winds early Friday morning with this approaching system. Cross sections also show the potential for mountain waves given a stable temperature layer above the surface in soundings near Ruidoso. While this does not appear favorable for crashing mountain waves, heightened wind speeds are favored across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains near Dunken and Hondo. Gusts between 50- 55mph appear most favorable at the moment. Further north, the northern trough axis continues to move to the east through CO. The placement of each downstream speed max from each axis places northeast NM and southeast CO in an area both in a left exit and right entrance region of upper level jets. As such, a surface low is expected to develop in this area and contribute to windy conditions across much of eastern NM. Alongside this, a strong Pacific front begins to push through western NM as the trough axis traverses the CO/NM border. The combination of the surface low, Pacific front, and stronger 700mb winds (~35-40kts) should yield a windier day across much of the state. Gusts up to 50mph look likely across eastern NM, specifically along the I-40 corridor and on the immediate east slopes of the central mountain chain. There has been a decrease in the forecast wind speeds for Friday on account of a significant decrease in model guidance speeds and where exactly the surface low develops. Should the low develop further north or east, forecast winds in eastern NM would likely continue to decrease. A further south/west and/or stronger low may lead to higher wind speed forecasts. The aforementioned Pacific front and a backdoor front from the surface low look to push through much of NM Friday night into Saturday morning, plummeting temperatures across the area. There is high confidence in widespread temperatures below freezing, with continued high confidence in a hard freeze (<28F). While we are starting to near the average last freeze for some areas, the record warm March along with very recent rainfall has allowed for abundant blooming of plants and folks starting irrigation processes. A Freeze Watch will more likely than not be needed within the next day or two. Start preparing to protect your plants, pipes, pets and people! Weak ridging looks to build over the state through the weekend, bringing in calmer conditions mainly on Saturday. The orientation of the ridge looks to induce weak southerly flow on Sunday, producing a favorable pattern for a weak influx of moisture. A few gusty virga showers and light rain look possible for Sunday, though with only low to moderate confidence. Forecast confidence continues to decrease moving into next week as a potent low spins off the coast of CA. When and where it moves ashore will spell what impacts it will bring to NM, though a windy pattern with bouts of precipitation appear possible (low confidence). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West northwest winds across the area taper off around sunset with clear skies overnight. Increasing upper and mid level clouds from west to east during the day Thursday. Increasing south and southwest winds areawide beginning late morning into the afternoon hours. Strongest winds across northeast NM and around KGUP with peak gusts of 30 to 35 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY... Critical fire weather conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday afternoon across eastern NM, where a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch have been issued respectively. Southwest winds begin to increase through the early afternoon Thursday, mainly around 20-30mph and gusting to 40mph. Winds outside of the RFW likely will remain 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Single-digit humidity hours is one of the main stories for Thursday, with upwards of 9 hours across much of the RFW area. For Friday, winds are forecast to be stronger and have a more westerly component with gusts up to 50mph, and the humidity values are forecast to be slightly higher (8-12% rather than 5-9%) with a few hours less of single-digit humidity. Even with that, still expecting widespread critical fire weather conditions across the FWW area. Confidence has decreased slightly in the strength of the winds with the newest model guidance along with when a backdoor front will shift the winds out of the north across eastern NM. For both Thursday and Friday, ERCs remain around the 50-75th percentile after last weekend's rainfall, which is the limiting factor for not including anywhere west of the central mountain chain in fire highlights. Winds and RH will still be near critical threshold, but confidence is not high enough for including those locations. Saturday looks to be much calmer, albeit a much colder morning given the passage of the backdoor front. A few gusty virga showers and sprinkles are possible in western NM Sunday, though with low to moderate confidence. A Pacific storm system looks to approach sometime during the middle of next week, bringing winds and precipitation, though there is low confidence in any details at the moment. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 72 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 31 69 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 67 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 71 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 71 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 60 31 51 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 38 67 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 25 68 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 74 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 68 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 80 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 70 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 29 73 34 67 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 30 75 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 36 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 43 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 37 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...71  614 FXUS61 KPHI 152320 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms evening, mainly north of I-80. 2. Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. 3. Elevated fire weather potential possible on Thursday. 4. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening, mainly north of I-80. Similar to Tuesday, there is another chance for isolated severe weather across northeast PA and northern NJ where a Marginal Risk is in place for some isolated damaging winds and small hail. Today's risk will be associated with a remnant MCV that is currently located over the southern Great Lakes region that will track east into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and potentially clip the northern portions of our area this evening. As diurnal heating continues, this should contribute to some reinvigoration of convection in the late afternoon as the complex of thunderstorms advances toward our area this evening. Suppose with the warm and relatively moist airmass and MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, some isolated cells could develop, but with bulk shear values generally less than 30 kt, these should not pose a threat. The severe threat will ultimately depend on how upstream convection evolves, but latest guidance trends continue to indicate that the greater potential may be just outside of our area. For this reason, SPC has nudged the greatest potential further north, only keeping areas north of I-80 in the Marginal Risk. In terms of timing, any convective activity looks to occur in the early evening hours, mainly after 7 PM and concluding by or just after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected through Thursday. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and Thursday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s, though Thursday's highs could a touch cooler with some high clouds around. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next couple of days. See the Climate Section below for temperature records today and Thursday. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temps will stay well above normal through Saturday with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels on Sunday and into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather spread possible on Thursday. A period of elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday as very warm and dry conditions continue. MinRH values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across eastern PA, NJ and the Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread. While these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, suppose a Special Weather Statement may be warranted. We will be in contact with our fire weather partners later today or tonight to determine if a SPS may be needed depending on how dry 10-hour dead fuel moistures are. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 4...There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. Any severe activity is expected to subside before reaching the Mid-Atlantic region, leaving just showers and an isolated thunderstorm possibility. Dry weather will return for the first half of the week, while cooler conditions return for the weekend through next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Slight chance of a shower or t-storm near ABE/RDG this evening, but kept out of TAF given very low probability. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-high confidence. Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. High confidence. Thursday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers. Southwest winds shifting west 5-10 kts with low-level wind shear possible. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Saturday night-Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers during the period which could lead to temporary lower conditions. Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday. Southwest winds of 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt and seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below advisory conditions. Sunday-Monday...There is a chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .CLIMATE... Warm temperatures well above normal are expected for the upcoming week. Today is currently projected to be the warmest day, though Thursday could see some records broken depending on the site. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 15th through April 16th. Record High Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994 AC Airport (ACY) 90/1967 AC Marina (55N) 86/1941 Georgetown (GED) 86/1960 & 2024 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1941 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1941 Reading (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994 Trenton (TTN) 87/1994 Wilmington (ILG) 86/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 15 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 59/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 61/2002 AC Marina (55N) 59/2006 Georgetown (GED) 65/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 58/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 64/2002 Reading (RDG) 64/1938 Trenton (TTN) 63/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 62/2002 Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Robertson AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM/Robertson MARINE...DeSilva/RCM/Robertson  094 FXUS63 KDMX 152320 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A nearly stationary frontal zone is draped across Iowa this afternoon, with the surface boundary stretching from around Glenwood to Des Moines to Elkader. South of the boundary, winds are gusty from the south southwest and temperatures are soaring into the 70s. North of the boundary, winds are light and variable and temperatures are holding in the upper 50s to 60s. A cluster of severe thunderstorms developed this morning in eastern Nebraska and has tracked east northeastward into our area, affecting areas between Highway 20 and Highway 30 and west of I-35 so far. However, farther south near the surface boundary the atmosphere remains undisturbed and very unstable, with strong deep layer shear moving overhead. As a mid-level trough approaches from the west this afternoon, it will generate additional storms along and south of the surface front that will carry an attendant threat for large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The storms will eventually clear our area to the east this evening, though a few weaker showers or storms may bubble up behind it as the mid-level trough moves overhead. Later tonight through Thursday night, a 500 MB ridge will build across the region and provide a brief respite of quiet weather. Thursday will be mild and dry, with winds coming around to south and picking up later in the day. The strongest winds will be in our northwestern counties, farther from the departing ridge to the east, with speeds of 15 to 20 MPH and higher gusts up around Estherville and Storm Lake on Thursday afternoon. As temperatures warm to near 80 degrees in that area, RH will plummet to near or just below 30 percent, combining with the gusty winds to result in an elevated fire weather risk, mainly north of I-80 and west of I-35. On Thursday night relative humidity will characteristically increase after sunset, however winds will remain brisk through the night and support unseasonably warm low temperatures by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 By Friday morning a deep longitudinal 500 MB trough will be crossing the U.S. Rockies, emerging over the High Plains late in the day. A surface low pressure trough will develop ahead of this system, stretching from around the Texas Panhandle northeastward across Kansas, Iowa, and toward Lake Superior by the middle of the day. A sharp baroclinic zone will develop along this trough, with gusty south breezes ahead of it and stronger north northwest winds behind it providing enhanced low-level convergence beneath a broad region of dynamic lift on the leading flank of the approaching 500 MB trough. Initially a low-level inversion will inhibit convective initiation, but by the afternoon near-surface warming and mixing will erode the cap and numerous thunderstorms will develop all along the frontal zone. SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/KG and 0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 35-45 KT will support strong updrafts and a severe weather threat across a large area, particularly given the magnitude of forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings indicate a deep unstable layer and strong winds aloft (around 50 KT at 700 MB), but generally straight hodographs with little directional shear in the effective layer. Any surface-based storms will be able to tap into modest directional shear in the lowest levels, but the tornado threat remains uncertain due to a relative lack of backed surface winds - certainly any storms moving to the right of mean motion would carry an enhanced tornado threat. In any event, given the strength of the wind fields, linear nature of the convection along the frontal zone, and magnitude of instability in the hail growth zone, damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat at this time. If the storms are able to form an organized QLCS, then the tornado threat may increase accordingly. Overall, any areas of Iowa that are along or east of the front when convection initiates will see a significant threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty in exactly where the front will lie when storms develop, but the eastern/southeastern half of Iowa appears most likely to be under this threat. The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Main concern in the next 6 hours will be the departing thunderstorms at KOTM. KDSM and KALO could also seem some scattered storms, but these will have less coverage. Some CAMs show scattered -SHRA/-TSRA possible over northern IA this evening so added PROB30s at FOD and MCW. Otherwise, once the storms exit the region, a narrow ridge of high pressure will build overnight. This will lead to clear skies, and potentially some patchy fog. As of now, MVFR fog looks most likely at ALO where residual moisture from this evening's storms will aid in surface saturation. On Thursday, expect VFR conditions with increasing southerly winds with sustained values near 10 kts toward the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION... HYDROLOGY...Zogg  653 FXUS61 KBOX 152321 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 721 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again Thursday night. - Pattern turns cooler early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. Backdoor front dropping southward will bring cooler temperatures at least to eastern MA coast as winds turn onshore, but warmer temperatures will persist inland. Front itself should meander over southern New England for next couple of days, probably settling near a line from Fitchburg to Norwood and Plymouth later this afternoon, retreating back north overnight, then dropping back southward again Thursday afternoon to about the same location. This certainly presents a big challenge with the temperature forecast, less so in CT and western MA which are more likely to maintain summertime warmth through Friday, but less so across RI and eastern MA depending upon exactly where front ends up and with its timing. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again late Thursday. As front remains over or near southern New England, a series of weak low pressure centers will ride along it, each bringing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms. First round through early tonight looks to be more scattered in nature per high-res guidance. Already seeing CU development upstream across central NY where instability is increasing so that is where convective initiation should take place. Environment here will feature strong 0-6km shear and reasonably strong mid level lapse rates (6C/km) but best instability (1000 J/kg) is focused over western MA/CT which makes sense given that is the area to the west of the front. While we don't expect to see as much activity as we did Tuesday evening, there could still be a few storms between 4 PM and 8 PM, perhaps even a few hours later than that, capable of producing wind damage, especially in CT per HREF helicity swaths. Farther east in the cooler airmass, there is virtually no surface instability but perhaps enough instability aloft coupled with heating to pop up a few brief showers. Next round of showers and embedded thunderstorms arrives during the overnight hours ahead of weak short wave and weak surface low riding along front. We still have strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates approaching 7C/km, but instability is aloft and would support more in way of elevated thunder, not surface based, so overall severe threat is low. Once low moves offshore, it should drop front southward Thu morning before it retreats northward again in afternoon. We then remain under large scale subsidence until next stronger short wave approaches Thu night. Environment remains about same with greatest instability west of I-91 but continued presence of strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates of 6-7C/km. Guidance shows showers and thunderstorms forming to out west during the day, which arrives here Thu night and weakens as it does so. KEY MESSAGE 3...Pattern turns cooler early next week. It's been said all good things must come to an end, and for those who have been enjoying this early taste of summer, a brief pattern change will bring a return to much cooler weather early next week. A strong cold front crosses southern New England Sun followed by a deep upper trough rotating through region, bringing an anomalously cold airmass back into the region, albeit for a short time. Temperatures aloft drop to as low as -7C to -10C at 850 mb Mon morning, only supporting highs in 40s and 50s Mon. It might not be want you want but high pressure covering much of eastern U.S. eventually shifts offshore by midweek as upper flow becomes more zonal, allowing for a slow warming trend. Highs should get back into 60s by Wed. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAFs: Moderate confidence. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog along the eastern MA coast will push a bit further inland into portions of central MA and RI overnight with lowest vsbys along the coast. Mainly VFR in the CT valley. Expecting scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms developing overnight. Similar situation Thu. VFR inland with SW winds, and MVFR/IFR to start closer to coast with E/NE winds, but even these areas should improve to VFR Thu afternoon. Next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should hold off until Thu night. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. LIFR fog and stratus tonight. May see some vsby improvement overnight with any showers that move through. Conditions should improve to VFR by midday Thu. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. Backdoor front meandering over southern New England through Fri will maintain light winds and calm seas, though there will be wind shifts from SW to NE from time to time on eastern MA waters along with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Passage of stronger cold Front Sun should bring SCA conditions to at least outer waters Sun into Mon. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Today's record highs (April 15): Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWD AVIATION...KJC/JWD MARINE...JWD CLIMATE...  225 FXUS64 KEPZ 152322 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Breezy again Thursday and Friday, and with very dry air will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A cool front moves in Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. - Moisture slips in from the east for a low chance of rain on Sunday over areas generally east of the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough and moisture plume are finally to the west of our area, allowing for the skies to clear. Nice quiet day today as short wave ridge moves over us. Things change again Thursday and Friday as upper low near Vancouver Island begins moving east across the northern/central Rockies. This feature will gradually tighten our pressure gradient and allow breezy winds both days. Right now Friday looks a bit windier but trough timing a bit too fast for best potential. Still stiff mid level winds Thursday night and Friday morning will bring strong gusts to the Sacramento Mtns. Will likely issue wind advisory for this situation. Trough eventually brings strong Pacific cool front through our area, initially dropping south as a side door front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Front could bring brief northerly wind gusts down the Sierra Lakes/Tularosa Basin Friday night, but am more concerned about very strong pressure rises Friday night into Saturday morning along easter New Mexico/Texas Panhandle. This could cause a hydraulic effect in our eastern CWA with much stronger winds than what the models show. West slopes could see wind gusts of 40-50 mph briefly Saturday morning. Otherwise a bit of a breeze Saturday with temperatures dropping to near normal. Sunday and Monday...exiting trough initially allows short wave ridge over us Saturday night, but then upper low/vort center moves over NW Mexico late Saturday night and turns lower level winds (below 700mb) more southeast to east, importing some moisture into the area for Sunday. Thus some lower rain chances back in the forecast for Sunday. As usual GFS/CMC most bullish with the moisture advection, though even the ECMWF shows higher dewpoints Monday, so will keep a mention in then for rain chances. Pattern recognition would indicate some chance for strong storms with good shear environment but GFS instability not great right now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusts up to 20kts from W linger to begin the period, subsiding after sunset. Winds become gusty again Thu afternoon from S-SW up to 25kts. Mainly SKC gives way to SCT-BKN250 during the day tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Some fire concerns for Thursday and Friday as humidity continues to lower and afternoon breezes develop. Winds Thursday of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, with a bit stronger winds on Friday. Right now Friday looks to be just short of Red Flag conditions, though that may change if upper trough timing becomes more conducive to stronger winds. Strong wind shift Saturday from west to north and eventually east by mid-day, along with cooler temperatures for the weekend. Gusty east winds Sunday with a chance of rain/thunderstorms. Chance of rain continuing into Monday. Back to dry and warm Tuesday/Wednesday. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, then increasing to 18-25% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 10-20% through Saturday, then increasing to 25-40% Sunday and Monday. Vent rates excellent Thursday and Friday, becoming good-very good Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 80 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 35 60 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 83 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 80 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 80 35 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 73 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 79 32 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 28 75 28 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  118 FXUS61 KGYX 152322 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 722 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A backdoor cold front has now made its way just about to the Connecticut River Valley at this point in the evening so have removed any mention of thunder from the forecast for the next several hours. Thunder chances return around midnight as convective activity currently off on Pennsylvania and Western New York will be approaching. Have also limited the extent of thunder overnight due to the aforementioned cooler and stable air across much of the area. The best possibility for an isolated rumble will be down along the Massachusetts state line where temperatures and dew points are still high at this hour. Also freshened up the aviation discussion to reflect the 00Z TAF package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered showers move through the area this evening and overnight, with the chance for a few thunderstorms across southwest New Hampshire. 2. Warmer temps continue away from the coast, with another chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across central and southern parts of New Hampshire on Thursday. 3. Chances for showers continue on Friday with temperatures remaining above normal through Saturday. 4. A cold front brings higher rain chances Saturday night and Sunday and then cooler, drier, and breezy conditions to start out next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A backdoor cold front has stalled just west of Maine/New Hampshire border today, with a sharp temperature gradient from west to east. While much of New Hampshire has warmed into the mid to upper 70s, much of Maine and eastern New Hampshire remains in the 50s to low 60s this afternoon. The front makes some further progress inland through the overnight hours, expanding the coverage of fog and low clouds inland overnight. In addition to the front, remnant MCS systems continue to roll into Northern New England bringing showers and some scattered thunderstorms. A pop up thunderstorm remains possible across southwest New Hampshire this afternoon, and then there is another chance through the overnight hours as another remnant system from the Midwest passes through. Scattered showers are possible elsewhere overnight. Lows generally bottom out in the 40s to the east of the front, and 50s to the west of it. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The front drifts a bit back toward the east tomorrow, yielding highs in the 70s to low 80s across central and southern New Hampshire. 60s are expected in most other areas, while highs in the 50s look most likely along the coast and through central Maine. Areas of fog, drizzle, and low clouds are likely along the coast for much of the day. Another shortwave approaches from the west during the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the warm air mass across central and southern New Hampshire, this system will bring another round of potentially strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds and some hail will be the primary concern with these storms. The storms weaken as they move eastward into the marine layer, with showers expected across northern and eastern areas. The upper level low doesn't move offshore until Friday, which keeps the chance for some scattered showers ongoing through the overnight hours on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary on Friday, probably located somewhere across southern NH and into SW ME to start out while a 500mb shortwave approaches from the west. This will continue to support additional chances for showers through at least the morning and even a couple of thunderstorms with the NAM bringing more in the way of instability. A slight southward progression of the front is expected later in the day, which should lower precip chances and decrease clouds from north to south into Friday night. Highs are mostly in the 60s to lower 70s but could be cooler if the clouds or precip stay around longer. Also, some areas may see fog in the morning. Moisture increases late Friday night and through the day Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will be mainly in the low and upper levels with forecast soundings depicting a lot of dry air aloft. So, Saturday is expected to be dry during the day (except if the LL moisture is enough to support DZ near the coast), but the moist low levels could bring marine stratus and fog coastal areas, and this could linger near the coastline through Saturday. Fog and low stratus will also be possible farther inland early, but this should mix out fairly quickly. Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and cooler near the coast. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Wet weather then returns as rain overspreads the area from west to east Saturday evening and night and then continues for much of the day Sunday. Also, prior to the arrival of the rain, fog and stratus will probably come back along the coast and across portions of interior Maine and may be dense. As far as rainfall amounts, ensembles depict 0.25" to 0.50" of rain with higher totals closer to 0.75" possible. Models are in pretty good agreement with the frontal passage being either late in the day Sunday or Sunday night, and rain coming to an end as drier air moves in behind the front. This will bring mostly dry conditions outside of the mountains for the day Monday, but it will also be cooler and breezy. Highs look to be slightly below normal and mostly in the 40s. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday and then shifts south and east toward the middle of next week. This should bring a slight warming trend with dry conditions Tuesday and perhaps a chance of showers returning by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...VFR to MVFR give way to IFR overnight at most terminals with lowering ceilings and areas of fog, along with scattered showers. Thunderstorms may near the vicinity of MHT overnight, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. LIFR is more likely along the coast tonight into Thursday. Gradual improvement is likely during the day on Thursday inland, while only some improvement to possibly MVFR is likely along the coast. Ceilings lower again Thursday night, with showers and possibly a thunderstorm across southern terminals. Outlook... Friday: IFR to LIFR possible in the morning due to fog and low stratus. There is a chance for showers through the day, but conditions may improve to MVFR or VFR in the afternoon. Friday night: Mainly VFR with coastal fog/stratus possible late. Saturday: IFR to LIFR restrictions possible due to marine fog and stratus at the coastal sites, but fog may also occur inland during the morning. Otherwise VFR for inland terminals. Saturday night-Sunday...Widespread restrictions and rain showers likely, and perhaps a storm or two, as a cold front crosses through. Sunday night: Conditions return to VFR, except MVFR remains possible at HIE. Monday: Mainly VFR with gusty northwest winds. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels through Thursday night as a frontal boundary remains stalled near the coast. Areas of fog remain likely through Thursday night. Conditions remain under SCA levels Friday, but fog is possible ahead of a weak boundary that will cross through switching winds to more NE later in the day. More fog and stratus are likely from early Saturday through Sunday as south to southeast winds and moisture increase ahead of a cold front that will also bring a round of showers through Saturday night on Sunday. SCA conditions are possible ahead of the front, but are more likely with the gusty west to northwest winds behind the front Sunday night and Monday. High pressure should then allow conditions to fall below SCA levels Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Baron DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs  817 FXUS63 KLMK 152323 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather is likely to continue today (~90% confidence) though clouds will increase overnight into Thursday morning. * Clouds thicken for the morning commute though rain chances though confidence is low for morning rain showers. (90% of remaining below 0.1" in rainfall). * Marginal severe storm threat for gusty winds Thursday afternoon, though confidence is low for storms on account of prolonged cloud cover and strong SE ridging. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Wednesday - Thursday ===== We are well above-normal today as highs soar into the mid to upper 80s in a few places. A few record highs could be broken with strong SW flow this afternoon. Otherwise, some high level cirrus clouds will stick around as a major trough remains to our north and west, along with most, if not all the rain this afternoon as well. There is plenty of surface instability and all that is needed is a trigger to initiate lift. Though a very small chance (<10%), an isolated storm is possible in our far northern IN counties, though most likely everyone remains dry and baking into the 80s. With a jet overhead, SW winds will increase some today, with gusts of 20-30 MPH this afternoon. Eventually, clouds increase and lower with height tonight allowing the surface to decouple from these higher winds above. Overnight, clouds continue to thicken and rain chances increase from west to east sometime after 7 AM EDT. A shortwave from the west will approach our CWA though with weakening instability, frontogenesis, and shear, this line of showers and storms will fall apart as it closes in. How much this line weakens depends on how much a high over the SE US relents, with latest probability CAM guidance keeping high end rainfall totals under a tenth by noon tomorrow (>90%). During the day and into the afternoon, clouds will stick around the whole CWA, acting as a lid to any convection that tries to initiate. Afternoon highs are a tad cooler in the mid to upper 70s from those clouds sticking around. The shortwave that moves through will keep a boundary draped over the central CWA. If this boundary can stall long enough with thinning clouds and increasing instability (increasing CAPE and dewpoints) from the SW in the afternoon and evening hours, convection could overwhelm the cap and initiate scattered showers and storms. A marginal risk for severe weather is possible for any afternoon storms with the main threat being gusty winds. Confidence is low in the severe threat given recent trends but is something we will monitor. The most limiting factor to storms or severe weather is the strength of the ridge at low to mid levels along with how much cloud cover can limit daytime heating. Still, some rainfall is likely, albeit small amounts with totals most likely remaining under 0.2" in (90%). A few places could see 0.5" in of rain if the SE ridge can weaken or move east slightly, forming more storms later in the evening (10%). SE high pressure keeps a warm SW flow for our area heading into the weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Brief Dry Period on Friday ===== Mostly dry and warm weather is expected on Friday as upper ridging briefly moves across the region. This upper ridge will amplify in response to an upstream shortwave ejecting out of the Mountain West region. Southwest flow will persist and promote a WAA regime, which will allow temps to warm well into the 80s by the afternoon, and potentially challenge some max temp records. By Friday night, the upper ridge will begin to shift east, with a LLJ out ahead of an associated cold front beginning to enter into the area from the west. This will provide an increase in moisture transport overnight, and perhaps some rain chances mainly west of I-65 for Friday night. ===== Showers and Storms Saturday ===== The upper trough is expected to amplify across the central US on Saturday, with a deepening low moving north of the Great Lakes and across southern Ontario. An extensive cold front will trail southward through the Midwest, which will be the focus for showers and storms to sweep through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, southwest gradient winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph, along with increasing cloud cover and approaching showers and storms. While it will be quite warm with temps reaching the upper 70s and low 80s, the cloud cover should somewhat limit heating, especially west of I- 65 where cloud cover will overspread the region earlier in the day. The warmest temps in the area will likely occur near the I-75 corridor due to a longer exposure to WAA and sunshine before the front and precip approaches. SPC maintains the 15% risk for Saturday mainly for I-64 and north, including the Louisville and Lexington metros. However, there remains some uncertainty in regards to severe storm potential, primarily due to questions revolving around how much instability we'll be able to realize. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 60- 70% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE, a 40-50% chance of exceeding 750 J/kg, and a 25-30% chance of exceeding 1000 J/kg. High end amounts (10% chance of exceedance) top out around 1200-1300 J/kg. There is more confidence on shear parameters given the LLJ overhead, and expect to see deep layer shear values 40-50kts, sufficient for well-organized storms. Shear profiles are mostly unidirectional, which will support linear convection with a damaging wind threat. Regardless, the frontal boundary will provide strong forcing in a favorable shear environment with at least some marginal instability expected, so confidence continues to increase on shower and storm potential. As of now, the highest chances for showers and storms will be from late morning through the entire afternoon ahead of the cold front. If the front is slower than expected, the severe risk could be greater given more time for diurnal heating to help destabilize our environment more. If it arrives quicker than expected, it will shut off our severe potential earlier in the day, leading to a potentially drier afternoon and evening. Confidence remains limited on FROPA timing, and may not gain much confidence until we get within the CAMs range. Regardless of when exactly the front will pass through, our sfc winds will veer from the warm SW flow to a cooler and drier WNW direction, especially by the late evening hours. CAA will take over, leading to temps to drop into the 40s overnight. ===== Seasonably Cool Sunday into Next Week ===== In a post-fronal regime by Sunday, expect seasonably cool temps and drier weather. This will likely continue into Monday as well due to sfc high pressure building across the region. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to remain in the 60s. Monday morning could be an opportunity for some frost development, especially in the Bluegrass region as morning lows dip into the 30s. The 100-member LREF suggests a 40-50% chance of favorable frost conditions. Sfc high pressure will shift east of the area on Tuesday, leading to a return to the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions remain for the night with SCT high level clouds and light SW winds. A line of rain showers and possible storms will approach the area tomorrow morning, however will weaken as it moves east. Showers (moving NW to SE) will move in around 12z with a lower cloud deck at 5kft. During rain showers, ceilings could become MVFR with slightly lower (5-6SM) visibility. Brief periods of wind gusts nearing 20kts can also be expected during showers. Once the rain moves through by tomorrow evening, VFR conditions return with partially clearing skies (SCT100) and light WSW winds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CAL  302 FXUS63 KFSD 152324 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to a critical fire danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for south central and southeast South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska. Additional fire concerns possible Friday but confidence is low. - A strong cold front moves through the area on Friday. Ahead of the front over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota, an isolated severe storm is possible. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of Highway 14 as precipitation exits the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions begin the TAF period. A few light showers persist across parts of the area. Have added a PROB30 group to KSUX to begin the period to take these light showers into account. Otherwise a CU field that has developed will wane with the setting sun. Winds will go light and variable for a brief period of time tonight before beginning to pick up out of the south. Skies are expected to remain clear for the day tomorrow with winds further veering to out of the southwest. Winds will also strengthen tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to about 25 knots expected. The breezy winds will finish out the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds remain light across the area this afternoon, so fire weather concerns are not expected into this evening. South- southwesterly winds will increase on Thursday as a storm system deepens off to our west. Relative humidity values look to drop as low as 15-20% across the area in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s. This dry air will combine with gusts of 25-30 mph to lead to critical fire weather conditions across a large part of the area. For this reason, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for south central and southeastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska to a Red Flag Warning. A little uncertainty remains on how far east the strongest winds make it, but enough confidence to issue a Fire Weather Watch for parts of southwest Minnesota into adjacent areas of northwest Iowa where RH values will drop to around 20-25%. Farther south to the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa, went with a Fire Weather Watch instead of a Red Flag Warning due to uncertainty regarding how much rain we see down there today. If we could get more of a steady rain develop and/or a couple of thunderstorms move through this afternoon, that may preclude a greater fire danger despite the low RH and breezy winds expected. Winds remain elevated and even increase on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and turns winds from the south to out of the northwest. Drier air will filter in behind this front, dropping RH values by Friday afternoon. This will lead to a primarily wind driven high to very high GFDI across the area; however colder temperatures moving in and cloud cover precludes a greater fire weather threat at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040- 050-052>071. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098. IA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IAZ001-012-020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers FIRE WEATHER...Samet  904 FXUS64 KAMA 152324 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today through Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon depending on the location and progression of a dryline. -Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 As of this writing a mid to upper level trough with a positive tilt is moving through the central to southern Great Plains. Some dry air entrainment behind is it expected to clear out the cloud coverage and Amarillo is already seeing nice clear blue skies. A few high clouds continue to linger in the far eastern Panhandles as the stream of moisture moves off to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Today, this trough is brining some subtlety cooler air to the western combined Panhandles where highs are only expected to reach the 70s, 80s in the east. Also, westerly downsloping winds are expected to bring in dry surface air dropping RH values to the 8-15% range this afternoon. Overnight, RH values are expected to only recover to 25 to 40 percent. This will not help with fire weather conditions going into tomorrow. As this trough exits the area tonight, upper level ridging builds over the FA bringing widespread temperatures in the 80s. Tds in the lower teens stick around for tomorrow and almost the entire FA is expected to see RH values quickly drop into the 5 to 10 percent range. A surface trough is progged to strengthen over the area not only aiding in the dry air, but aiding in some breezy gradient driven winds as well. As a result, almost all of the combined Panhandles are expected to see critical fire weather conditions. Tomorrow night, a dryline is progged to retreat back into the Panhandles, dividing the northwest and southeast half of the FA. As such, RH recoveries will vary from the northwest to southeast going into Friday. RH values Friday morning may vary well be in the 90-100 percent range, around 50 percent along a line from Vega to Beaver, with RH values staying low (24-40%) to the northwest. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level system is progged to approach the combined Panhandles Friday afternoon bringing with it dry air and gusty winds leading to critical fire weather conditions. Later, an associated cold front is progged to move into the area from the north in the late afternoon/ evening. This front is expected to bring strong to potentially high (58+ mph) winds. For now have not gone too much higher with the winds in the forecast, but there is still room for winds speeds to increase with subsequent forecast packages. Cooler temperatures are indeed expected with this frontal system. H85 temperatures are expected to drop into the 0 to 2 degree C range overnight into Saturday morning. This is leading to a concern of the northwest combined Panhandles potentially see Sat morning lows in the 28 to 32 degree range. Winds are expected to stay out of the north Sat with highs only expected to reach the 60s (near normal for this time of year). For Sunday, winds are progged to return to the southwest and temperatures are expected to rebound into the 70s for afternoon. Elevated to spotty critical fire weather conditions may return in the northwestern FA as winds ramp up to the 15 to 20 mph range out of the southwest. Temperatures are expected to stay somewhat subdued on Monday, with a much warmer afternoon expected Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s. Outside of maybe some pop-up thunderstorms in the southeast && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times under mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Extremely dry conditions are expected Thu with RH values potentially getting down to 5 percent. Twenty-foot winds are expected be out of the southwest around 15 to 20 mph with maybe some areas in the northwest panhandles reaching upwards of 25 mph. Even higher winds are expected on Friday as an upper level system approaches. This system will not only bring higher winds for Friday afternoon but also a cold front with a dramatic wind shift to the north later in the evening. Winds are still expected to be strong behind this front as it moves through overnight into Saturday morning. RFTIs in the 5 to 7 range are expected to be isolated to the northwest Panhandles Thursday with more widespread 5 to 7 RFTIs across all of the central to western Panhandles on Friday with potentially some 8s. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ001>019- 317. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ001>003. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...29  025 FXUS65 KCYS 152324 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 524 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest winds will increase Thursday across the area, leading to critical fire danger over the High Plains and the potential for high winds in portions of Carbon county. - A very strong cold front will sweep through the area between the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday, bringing rapidly dropping temperatures and an abrupt wind shift. - Snow squalls and a flash freeze will be possible Thursday evening, primarily in Carbon and Converse counties. - Widespread snowfall is expected Thursday evening through Friday, though exact accumulations remain uncertain. - Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy early. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Active weather will continue across the area for the next several days with multiple different hazards anticipated. This will be driven by a powerful Pacific trough which is already apparent on GOES satellite imagery moving inland this afternoon. As this feature dives into the western CONUS tomorrow, it will amplify the downstream ridge over our area. This will strengthen the southwest flow aloft beginning tonight and continuing through the day tomorrow. Median 700-mb wind speeds per the LREF climb to around 45 knots late this evening and remain there through midday Thursday over much of Carbon County. These values are around the climatological 99th percentile. The latest probabilities for wind exceeding high wind criteria from the NBM are in the 50 to 70% range for much of Carbon county including Rawlins, Elk Mountain, Arlington, and Muddy Gap. In addition, the wind direction is favorable for some downslope winds into the Upper North Platte River Valley. While confidence is lower for that zone, it was enough to include the Saratoga area in a High Wind Watch. The best window looks like mid morning through the early afternoon on Thursday, but the watch covers a longer time period beginning midnight tonight and continuing until a few hours after the frontal passage on Thursday to account for a few overnight mountain waves, and higher than expected wind gusts with the cold front. We will also need to keep an eye on the Converse County area for a potential expansion of the high wind threat, but probabilities are lower there (10-40%). By mid morning, gusty southwest winds will mix down the surface across the entire area. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated over the High Plains, which will increase the fire weather threat. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the High Plains once again. The increased cloud cover may provide a failure mode for critical conditions, but confidence was high enough to upgrade across the board. Big changes will be on the way as a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. Expect this to arrive around 3 to 4PM for our northern and western zones, including western Carbon and western Converse counties. The Sidney area will be the last to see the front push through, with expected timing around 10 to 11PM. As the front passes through, expect an abrupt wind shift and rapid rise in surface pressure. Extremely strong frontogenesis will support precipitation immediately behind the frontal passage. Modest instability will be present ahead of the front, so we will need to watch for convective enhancement, particularly due to the late afternoon timing. The very strong mechanical forcing (as much as 3 mb per hour pressure rises) and potential for a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will put snow squalls on the table. While temperatures will be spring-like ahead of the front, look for a very rapid drop in temperatures which could add flash freeze concerns. Rain may flip over to snow very quickly, especially in Carbon County. Rawlins, for example, should see a high around the lower 60s Thursday, but may be below freezing by 7 to 8PM, if not sooner. Travelers across Albany, Carbon, and Converse counties should be prepared for hazardous, rapidly changing conditions including low visibility in falling and blowing snow and icy surfaces especially as the sun goes down. Overnight, model guidance remains a little split concerning whether some post-frontal overrunning lift will manage to develop. Forecast soundings for Rawlins show about 6 hours of a warm nose developing right in the middle of the dendritic growth zone between about 9PM and 3AM. A few ensemble members try to bring low-level dry air in underneath this very promptly, and cut into precipitation totals. Taken all together, there was enough confidence in at least some impacts from snow to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most of Carbon and Converse counties. These are the areas where impacts will occur Thursday evening. The storm system will slowly migrate eastward Thursday night into Friday morning, spreading cold air and snow with it. While precipitation should be more or less right behind the front when it first moves into the area, the surface front will race ahead overnight. East of a Laramie to Lusk line, forcing for ascent will not really get going until after midnight, several hours behind the initial frontal passage. For determining impacts, the exact start time will be fairly critical. Snow beginning pre-dawn should easily stick, and create icy and slick conditions for the Friday morning commute. However, if forcing holds off just a few hours later until around 9AM or so, after the strong April sun takes hold, road impacts in particular may be more limited. Due to this uncertainty, decided to hold off on expanding the Winter Weather Advisory east of Laramie. The most likely scenario still includes 1 to 4 inches of snow in Albany, Platte and Laramie counties, with a dusting to 2 inches further to the east. In addition to the snow, blustery north winds are expected with this event. This will lead to chilly wind chill values and the potential for some blowing snow. Snow might actually be a little lighter and fluffier than typical for this late in the season as forecast soundings show a fairly deep, saturated dendritic growth zone. So, while some melt on contact is anticipated with the warm ground temperatures, this probably won't be a typical late April heavy wet snowfall. Ratios are expected to be around 12:1 to 15:1 in Wyoming, and 8:1 to 12:1 in Nebraska. The last impact of this system will be the expected cold temperatures. After a historically warm start to spring, vegetation has progressed much further out of dormancy than typical for mid April. This event will not be record challenging cold by any means, but we will have temperatures far below average. In fact, 700-mb temperatures will be below the 10th percentile of climatology on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for some areas, and all remaining below the lower 40s at the warm end. As skies clear and winds die down, we should have time for rapid radiative cooling. Widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s can be expected by Saturday morning, which will cause issues for outdoor irrigation systems and sensitive vegetation. Those with such vulnerabilities to the cold temperatures are encouraged to make preparations for the cold weather while the warm temperatures last on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Saturday...With decent low and mid level gradients and northwest flow aloft, it looks breezy to windy. 700 mb temperatures near -7 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 40s west of I-25, with upper 40s to mid 50s east of I-25. Sunday...Ridging aloft moves over western Wyoming with a surface lee trough developing over our counties. With 700 mb temperatures near 5 Celsius, maximum temperatures will climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s west of I-25, with mid 60s to lower 70s further east. Monday...The warming trend will continue as ridging aloft strengthens and becomes more pronounced over western Wyoming. 700 mb temperatures near 7 Celsius will produce high temperatures in the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. Tuesday...Dry conditions continue as ridging aloft transitions to eastern Wyoming. Slightly warmer as 700 mb temperatures warm a degree or two. Wednesday...As the ridge axis aloft moves to the northern high plains, our flow aloft will turn southwest with strengthening surface lee troughing. Temperatures slightly cooler due to more cloud cover. Slight chances for afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms due to an increase in low and mid level moisture and low level convergence. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The flow aloft will become southwest tonight. Confidence is high, due to a ridge of high pressure aloft, with scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet, and also moderate confidence in winds gusting to 38 knots at the Wyoming TAF sites until 01Z, then to 30 knots until 15Z and to 40 knots after 15Z Thursday. Winds expected to gust to 35 knots for the Nebraska TAFS until 02Z, and again to 30 knots after 15Z Thursday. A reduction in pressure gradient and decoupling will help reduce the winds overnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419- 430>433. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ101. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ103>105-109>111-113. High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday evening for WYZ104-109-110-113. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  801 FXUS64 KEWX 152325 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for isolated strong to severe storms Today mainly north of Highway 90; a near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday as a cold front moves through. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A messy and highly uncertain forecast for this afternoon into tonight as Hi-Res models are still all over the place regarding the location of possible convection. To complicate matters further most of the area remains capped as clouds have been very slow to clear and it's possible they remain over most of the area through the rest of this afternoon. However, if we get just a few hours of some sunshine we could see convection blossom as we have 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE along with decent effective bulk wind shear. Any convection if it does form could certainly become severe with main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, SPC has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather for parts of the Rio Grande Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country. The current thinking is convection may form over northern Mexico and progress northeastward much like last nights activity with areas across the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country seeing activity in the evening. Most of this activity should wane by the early overnight hours as the trough responsible should move off to the east allowing upper level ridging to build overtop of us. This brief ridging Thursday should allow our area to dry out and warm up nicely with many locations approaching 90. Lows Thursday night should remain warm with most staying in the mid 60s to near 70. Additionally, the humidity remains thanks to the very persistent southwesterly flow aloft and southerly level flow at the surface. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our quiet and warm weather extends for one more day as the upper level ridge continues to influence our area. It will likely also be a bit breezy as we become sandwiched between high pressure off to our east and a Low pressure moving across colorado into OK. Additionally, a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front through most of North Central and South Central TX sometime late friday into early Saturday and arriving across our area by late Saturday morning. As this happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front as early as midnight Friday as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a Fredericksburg to New Braunfels to Gonzales line. Additionally, SPC currently has parts of the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather however its a bit too soon to discuss what severe threats may be. The likely convection mode could become linear thus limiting the tornado and large hail risk. Once this front passes expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms to stick around the area through Monday as SW flow aloft continues. However, most of this activity should remain elevated and sub severe as the front will have already pushed well through most of the area. After Monday we should see the peak of this CAA across the area with some locations not making it out of the 60s for highs especially across the Hill Country. A gradual warmup is expected as southerly low-level flow finally returns by Tuesday and continues into Wednesday along with an uptick in rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight conditions begin the period. There is a few isolated rain showers in the region but these will fade in next few hours and unlikely to impact the TAF sites. Overnight into Thursday morning will see MVFR ceilings establish across the region with locations along the Rio Grande the slowest for ceilings to lower. Ceilings will rise and clouds will break towards and into the afternoon with returning VFR conditions. Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds continue with the highest gusts occurring from the afternoon into the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 89 69 89 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 67 86 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 90 69 91 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 87 67 88 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 89 69 90 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...62  942 FXUS62 KILM 152325 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated below for 0z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. A Fire Danger Statement continues for southeast NC through this evening. Dry conditions continue for the entire area with active fire evident on satellite. Minimum RH will drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s each afternoon, except for coastal areas where an afternoon sea breeze will keep minimum RH in the 40s. Southerly winds remain weak, but seven-day rainfall totals are zero. Rainfall totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C Thursday and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees Thursday and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Record highs Thursday through Saturday: .............Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. The cold front will encounter increasing moisture limitations as it moves east of the Appalachians during Monday. NBM probabilistic rainfall graphics show only low chances for >0.01 as the boundary moves through. The window for any precipitation appears limited as well, especially with deeper drying expected to develop by Sunday evening. Otherwise, expecting gusty winds (potentially 20-25 mph) several hours either side of the frontal passage. This is a fire weather concern given the drought status. During Monday the surface high will build over the region providing a period of cooler than normal weather. Highs during Monday will be hard pressed to reach 70/lower 70s even with full sun. Radiational cooling will likely be most effective Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the typical cool spots possibly dropping into the upper 30s. During Tuesday the high will move offshore allowing temperatures to recover by midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Persistence forecast for the upcoming 24 hour period. Smoke could impact visibilities late tonight for parts of Williamsburg and northern Horry counties. Light southerly winds overnight. Southwest winds 10 kts Thursday with gusts 15-20 kts, with southerly sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Summer-like Bermuda high maintains a quiet and persistent forecast through Thursday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday night through Monday...SWly winds will prevail ahead of a weak inland surface trough Thursday night through Saturday with some backing each day with the sea breeze. A cold front moving across the waters during Sunday will allow winds to veer, and increase in the wake of the boundary Sunday afternoon/early evening. There could be a briefing period of Small Craft conditions during that time. Winds will continue to veer from an offshore direction to NE-Ely Monday through Tuesday as an area of high pressure translates over NC/VA and gradually offshore. SWly winds could increase again Wednesday night and Thursday morning before a weak pressure gradient causes light/variable conditions late Thursday. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less through much of the period, but at times could reach 4-6' with the frontal passage and late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED... KEY MESSAGES...21 DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...VAO MARINE...21/SRP  881 FXUS64 KTSA 152325 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storm chances continue through late evening Wednesday. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday. - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Early afternoon Wednesday, a moisture plume with precipitable water values locally in excess of 1.5 inches remained common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas east of a surface boundary positioned from west Texas through western Oklahoma and across central Kansas. Within this plume, both surface and elevated instability had become re-established across the region with the instability maximized along the boundary and eastward over central and northeast Oklahoma. Scattered convection was ongoing over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas within a southern portion of a 30-35KT low level jet holding over the CWA. A limited severe potential exists with this activity, though deep layer shear vectors were not quite as strong as they are back to the west. Small hail and gusty winds are probable with the stronger storms. This activity should move out of northwest Arkansas through the early afternoon hours. Additional storm development is expected over the CWA through the afternoon hours both initiating near the surface boundary and also out ahead of it. Deep layer shear is progged to increase from west to east as the boundary pushes eastward toward the CWA from a shortwave moving east northeast across the Plains. The combination of increasing shear, steep mid level lapse rates, the amount of instability over the CWA and dewpoints running in the mid/upper 60s will quickly aid in the increase of severe probabilities. At the onset, with more discrete storm development, the potential for all modes of severe weather exist this afternoon. With shear values more parallel to the boundary, storm development becoming broken lines and clusters could transition severe probs to more of a damaging wind threat this evening into tonight. Also, a heavy rain threat exists with the potential for localized flood concerns through tonight. At the same time, a tornado threat remains across the CWA with the greater potential looking to become QLCS along the leading edge of the broken line segments this evening into the early overnight hours. This is in response, to 0-1km storm relative helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 and low level shear values becoming more oriented to the south southeast forecast this evening. Severe potentials begin to weaken after 06z with much of the precip exiting southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Thursday morning. The boundary itself is expected to remain just west of the CWA tonight, which will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for lows Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the day Thursday, before the mid/upper level trof axis departs to the east, a slight chance of showers and storms remains for parts of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any lingering precip development Thursday afternoon could tap into shear/instability holding east of the surface boundary, and carry a limited severe potential. To the west of any precip development, continued southerly low level flow and more scattered cloud cover will help afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s, while upper 70s/near 80 deg are forecast for northwest Arkansas. Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is progged to move through the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. This will push the cold front back toward the CWA during the day Friday, and then through the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Moisture and instability continues to be common over the region ahead of the front and will allow for another round of storm development, especially Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with the front. Again, severe potentials exist along and ahead of the front with the greater potential over northeast Oklahoma as the front enters this area late afternoon through evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms taper off and exit during the morning hours as the front clears the CWA to the southeast. In the wake of the departing front and while the mid/upper level trof axis moves over the region, northerly flow transporting a cooler and drier airmass into the region is forecast. High temperatures in the 60s are forecast Saturday, with lows Saturday night falling into the upper 30s and 40s as cloud cover tries to clear. Temperatures more closer to seasonal average are forecast Sunday into early next week while a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. There are some indications of a wave moving over top the ridge during the middle part of next week which could return the potential for showers/storms. Uncertainty exists this far out and for now will carry a slight chance of precip. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible for all terminals the next few hours, with the densest coverage shifting from northeast OK towards northwest AR and southeast OK around 01-02Z. The impacts will include lightning, heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, lowered visibility to 1-2 SM, and brief ceilings of 2-3 kft. Storms will wind down overnight. A few additional storms could develop Thursday but were not included in the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in coverage and location. Gusty southerly winds will weaken a bit overnight but remain southerly, returning again during the day Thursday. Low ceilings will redevelop for all areas Thursday morning, most likely breaking up in the late morning or early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 85 67 83 / 80 10 10 50 FSM 64 79 67 86 / 90 20 10 10 MLC 65 84 67 82 / 80 10 10 10 BVO 57 85 64 83 / 60 10 0 60 FYV 61 78 64 84 / 90 20 10 20 BYV 61 77 64 83 / 90 20 10 20 MKO 62 81 66 83 / 80 10 10 20 MIO 61 79 65 80 / 80 10 0 60 F10 62 84 67 83 / 80 10 10 20 HHW 64 83 65 82 / 80 20 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...06  108 FXUS63 KABR 152325 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues through Thursday. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday (15 to 30 degrees above normal). - The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to 30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday over central and northeastern South Dakota as well as parts of north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for west central Minnesota as well. - A cold front will move through the area Thursday night, leading to below normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation starts out as rain Thursday night before transitioning to snow as colder air moves in. A couple tenths of snow accumulation on grassy surfaces is expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Warming trend continues today with highs widely on track to hit the mid-70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Other than some fair weather cumulus over eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota, clear skies and light winds will continue through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Temperatures increase further on Thursday, with 850mb temperatures of 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs over much of the area (excluding north central South Dakota due to a cold front discussed below) reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Despite these highs 20-25 degrees above normal, no climate sites are expected to hit record highs. Southerly winds are expected to increase Thursday as well due to the incoming low pressure center and resultant tightening of the pressure gradient. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected across the forecast area by the afternoon. Due to the widespread warmth dropping humidity to 15 to 25 percent as well as the gusty winds, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning across central and northeastern South Dakota, as well as part of north central South Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for Big Stone and Traverse counties in western Minnesota, as confidence in reaching Red Flag criteria is slightly lower over that area. A longwave trough will move east over the next couple of days, supporting a low pressure center and a cold front influencing the Northern Great Plains beginning Thursday. In the afternoon and evening on Thursday, the cold front will begin moving across the forecast area, which is an acceleration in timing from previous forecasts. Precipitation is expected to develop slightly behind the front, with the lift coming from divergence aloft in the exit region of the trough. At the moment, precipitation chances remain mainly over north central South Dakota. Ensemble probability of reaching a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent extends in a gradient across the forecast area, up to 60 percent in Corson County and decreasing moving to the southeast. As cold air settles in behind frontal passage, a transition from the initial precipitation type of rain will transition to snow. The majority of the precipitation is expected to fall before the warm nose cools below freezing and allows for snow to reach the surface. Therefore, only a couple of tenths of an inch of snow are expected at the most. Ground temperatures will be quite warm still, so expecting most of the snow to melt on impact, with the possible exception of grassy surfaces. Post-frontal northerly winds will also pick up, gusting to 30-40 miles per hour across the area Friday. Similar speeds will be present Saturday over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, with a slight dip over central and north central South Dakota (gusts topping out at 30 miles per hour in that area). NBM probabilities have backed down a bit, now sitting at less than a 20 percent chance of reaching Wind Advisory criteria both afternoons. Upper-level support Friday and Saturday afternoons will remain below 35-40 knots, so concern for any sort of Wind Advisory potential is waning. Looking ahead to next week, an upper-level ridge will build into the area, heralding the return of above normal temperatures to the Northern Great Plains. Current ensemble means put highs in the mid to upper 70s while the ridge is overhead, roughly 10-20 degrees above normal. Ensemble cluster then show a fair degree of confidence on another trough developing over the western CONUS, placing the Aberdeen forecast area into the left exit region and possibly bringing chances for precipitation. There is still quite a large timing disparity on when exactly this system is set to arrive, so sometime mid-week is the best depiction at this time range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds increase Thursday morning with gusts to around 25 kts then shift to the northwest toward the end of the period as a cold front moves through. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045- 048-051. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...20  301 FXUS61 KRLX 152326 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 725 PM Update... New Aviation Discussion 138 PM Update... Still some uncertainty on how far showers and storms will be able to carry into the region Thursday given very dry antecedent conditions. Conditional risk for strong to severe storms Saturday. Increased fire danger through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Near to record heat will persist through Saturday. 2.) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and relatively low humidity will be joined by wind gusts 20-30 mph on Thursday. 3.) A few strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley. High uncertainty as to how far east any threat will carry. 4.) A sharp cold front Saturday night will end the heat wave, bringing a period of beneficial rain and much colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Conditional threat for strong to severe storms Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An anomalous mid-level ridge remains anchored from the central Gulf to Florida, keeping the region in a deep southwesterly flow regime. Across the lowlands, expect highs generally in the 80s with a few sites approaching or exceeding record values today. While a weak shortwave on Thursday will introduce cloud cover and keep highs in the low to mid 80s, the ridge rebuilds Friday. Saturday looks to be the pinnacle of this heat wave for the Metro Valley and southern coalfields. Deterministic guidance is currently near record levels, but 90th percentile statistical data suggests isolated 90F readings are possible if precipitation struggles to invade a very dry antecedent airmass. KEY MESSAGE 2... Fire weather concerns remain at the forefront through Friday. Despite the rapid green-up of live fuels in the lowlands, 10-hour fuel moistures at RAWS sites are critically low, ranging from 7 to 9 percent. This afternoon and Friday will see minimum relative humidity values bottoming out between 30 and 35 percent with relatively light winds. However, Thursday presents a more significant challenge. As a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley, the pressure gradient tightens. Expect southwesterly sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Even with RH values slightly higher (upper 30s) due to moisture advection, the combination of wind and dry dead fuels may necessitate an Increased Fire Danger Statement for at least parts of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... A shortwave trough tracking from the Mississippi Valley will bring the next chance for convection Thursday afternoon. However, a significant dry sub-cloud layer remains between the surface and H500, which will likely limit overall precipitation coverage and result in high-based cells as they progress eastward. Low-level lapse rates remain steep, and with DCAPE potential over 800 J/kg, any sustained updraft will pose a risk for marginally severe downburst winds. The best potential remains focused across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley where forcing is strongest and storms will encounter the least amount of dry air. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift is confirmed for the weekend. A deep longwave trough will eject from the Plains, driving a strong surface cold front through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Synoptic lift is much more robust with this system compared to previous waves. While timing will dictate the exact severe threat, current kinematics with 0-6km bulk wind difference of 45 KTs support organized storm modes should sufficient instability emerge. This system appears to be the most likely candidate for a wetting rain. Strong cold advection follows the frontal passage. H85 temperatures are forecast to drop from +15C on Saturday to -5C by Sunday night. This will result in high temperatures retreating to the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. Under clear skies and diminishing winds Sunday night and Monday night, areas subject to cold air drainage away could see frost. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight and much of Thursday, then some brief MVFR/IFR restrictions could be possible within any showers or storms that develop Thursday afternoon or evening. Light south to southwest winds are expected overnight, then winds strengthen again with 15 to 25 KT gusts possible beginning late Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and late Saturday through Saturday night. && .Climate... Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------- Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 88 / 89 (1994) | 85 / 89 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 89 / 87 (2024) | 83 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 79 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...20 CLIMATE...JP  265 FXUS64 KCRP 152326 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Thursday and may continue into the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding possible through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisory conditions along with gusts to near gale force Saturday night into Sunday morning behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An isolated shower or thunderstorm could clip the area around Cotulla this afternoon as a storm system tracks across north and central Texas. Otherwise, the rain chances will remain north of the area. A few very weak showers moving north to northwest this morning across the southern Brush Country and Coastal Bend will diminish this afternoon. Similar conditions expected again Thursday morning. These weak showers will likely only produce trace amounts and most locations will remain dry. Overall, only a few minor changes to the forecast through the weekend. The work week still looks to be generally dry with above normal temperatures and breezy afternoons, especially on Friday. The strong onshore winds will usher deeper moisture across S TX ahead of a cold front. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms with measurable rainfall is Saturday through Monday with the highest chances expected Saturday night as the cold front moves through S TX. Behind the cold front, rain chances continue with mostly stratiform rain due to overrunning of the shallow cold dome. A few elevated embedded storms remain possible on Sunday with instability in the mid levels. As for the probability, chances increase to 20- 30% with the higher chance generally across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon. Rain chances increase to 50-70% Saturday night into Sunday. A 25-45% chance of mainly showers continues into Monday. Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide with similar highs Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Gradual warming trend next week. There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through thursday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, and southeast winds 10-15 knots. This may continue through the work week as onshore winds increase over the gulf waters through Friday. Minor coastal flooding will be possible daily during times of high tide. Will continue to monitor for potential Coastal Flood Advisory. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels the latter part of the week, which is more likely for water to reach the dunes at high tide and warranting a Coastal Flood Advisory. The best chance of coastal flooding is expected behind the weekend cold front. This is due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-25 knots along with an increasing swell period. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk but will be offset by the "along-shore" winds. These conditions are dependent on frontal passage timing and strength. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Gusty winds east this afternoon will subside over the next few hours. Expect low clouds to develop again through the late evening hours, especially for eastern sites. Have MVFR conditions for all eastern sites with only tempo MVFR west. Gusty winds return during the day tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6)onshore flow is expected to develop across bays and coastal waters on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong (BF 6) late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to near gale force can be expected. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase to a medium to high (30-60%)this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week remain very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend with the arrival of a cold front. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday night as the cold front moves through South Texas. Cooler behind the front, but still humid with rain chances continuing into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 84 73 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 94 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 81 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...PH/83  232 FXUS63 KEAX 152326 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with the best chances south and east of the I-35 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. - Another round of severe weather is anticipated on Friday afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. Confidence is higher than average that widespread coverage of storms is expected. Confidence is lower on convective mode, which will have significant influence on what severe weather hazards will occur with the storms. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts. - Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday night may approach the freezing mark in northern Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern in the short term is severe-weather potential this afternoon/evening. A weak surface low in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with an attendant cold front extending southward through eastern Kansas will shift eastward/northeastward this evening. Prompted by large-scale lift from an approaching perturbation this afternoon, convection is expected to initiate rapidly through late this afternoon (storms already developing in southeast Kansas as of 2 pm). Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have been consistently developing initially discrete convection along the front roughly near the I-35 corridor, growing quickly upscale into clusters/lines as the storms progress quickly eastward/northeastward through early evening. Large hail will be the primary threat with discrete storms, with wind damage becoming more possible with time as storms grow upscale. Wind profiles are generally favorable for splitting supercells (confirming the large hail threat), but mean mid/upper flow is largely parallel to the approaching front. Storm interactions should be frequent as more and more cells develop, so the process of congealing may be quite fast. This would likely mute the tornado threat, but the risk is not negligible. Low-level shear is more than adequate for tornadoes, and LCLs lower from west-to-east across the forecast area (and are sufficiently low everywhere). The good news is that the storms will be progressive, so the flooding risk is low today. The storms should generally be out of the forecast area by 9 or 10 pm, with the rest of the night expected to be dry. With the Pacific origins of today's weather system, Thursday should continue the streak of warm days (highs mainly in the 80s), with shortwave ridging keeping things dry (continuing through Thursday night). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern is the severe-weather episode expected on Friday afternoon/evening. A deepening longwave trough in the western U.S. will slowly approach the northern/central Plains Friday. A predecessor vorticity maximum will eject northeastward into the Missouri and Mississippi Valley regions Friday afternoon/evening, in advance of a strong cold front moving southeastward from the northern into the central Plains. Substantial large-scale lift will be present (via warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection) as the cold front approaches north/west portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Storms will rapidly develop during the afternoon along the front. Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles will be very favorable for severe storms, but the extensive nature of the large-scale lift and the largely parallel upper flow to the surging front suggests storm interactions will be rapid, resulting in quick upscale growth into an extensive line of storms with time. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible as the line develops/matures, with large hail and isolated tornadoes the main threats during the initial stages of convective development Friday afternoon. Confidence is rather high that the entire region will see storms, with potentially numerous reports of severe weather, but given the rapid upscale growth expected...the messy resultant nature of the convection poses uncertainty with the magnitude of the severe risk. If storms can maintain a discrete nature for a sufficiently long period of time, an isolated strong tornado could occur given the highly favorable environment. Flash flooding is also more of a concern on Friday, as multiple rounds of storms may develop during the afternoon/evening, especially if storms end up training on the south side of the developing mesoscale convective system (favoring southern portions of the forecast area). With recent rains across the area, we remain rather vulnerable for instances of flooding, particularly with small streams/creeks and in urban areas. Precipitable water values Friday afternoon will be unseasonably high (generally 1.3-1.6 inches), and training convection will be possible during the evening as the low-level jet increases, impinging on the southeastward-progressing cold front. As the cold upper trough moves into the central Plains by Saturday, strong cold advection upstream of the front will bring much colder temperatures to the region by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 20-30 degrees colder than Friday, with lows Saturday night approaching the freezing mark in northern portions of the forecast area as a strong surface high approaches. Not out of the question we have to issue a few frost/freeze headlines for that period. Warmer temperatures will commence quickly, with Sunday warming a good ten degrees with subsequent warming on Monday and Tuesday to temperatures a good 10-15+ degrees above average. The next chance for precipitation comes by the middle of next week, as long-range models are showing another active period developing for the close of April. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn clouds around 8kft fcst thru 02Z-04Z aft which only a few high clouds are expected. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south at IXD and MKC with a frontal boundary just west of the TAF sites. The front is nr MCI so winds may temporarily be out of the west btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts thru 01Z-02Z before winds back to south btn 5-10kts while winds at STJ will be out of the west at 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts before becmg lgt and vrb aft 02Z. Aft 15Z...winds will become southerly at all TAF sites btn 7-12kts with a few gusts to 20kts poss aft 18Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMS LONG TERM...CMS AVIATION...73  123 FXUS64 KOHX 152326 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is an enhanced fire danger this afternoon due to dry fuels, low RH values and gusty winds. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee's weather today, both at the surface and aloft. So we'll enjoy one more day of this stable and relatively dry air mass before the next active weather system brings some much-needed (but not nearly enough) rainfall to the mid state. A weak surface boundary currently situated to the northwest of Middle Tennessee will ease its way into the region later tonight and Thursday morning, so we can expect some late night and early morning showers. Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, although not as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave looks to push into Land-between-the-Lakes shortly after 00Z Thursday evening, and a convective cluster may accompany the shortwave. The HRRR has at times shown some storms affecting northwest portions of Middle Tennessee during the evening, hence the marginal risk from the SPC. While we cannot completely rule out a wind and hail threat, the risk of severe storms is very low during the early evening. And even that threat will diminish considerably as we lose our daytime heating. QPF values for tomorrow and tomorrow night remain underwhelming; most locations can expect no more than 1/4", although a few spots could see up to 1/2". Either way, it's not nearly enough to make up the growing rainfall deficit. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The atmospheric models continue to depict the bulk of the convective activity Saturday and Saturday evening as post-frontal, so that's going to limit the severe potential. Current QPF values resulting from Saturday's cold front are close to 1/2" area-wide, which will certainly be welcome, but won't do much to alleviate our drought conditions. The primary impact from Saturday's cold front will be the significant drop in temperatures on the other side. Indeed, high temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 60s most areas, and Monday morning's low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s most areas. After that, look for a gradual warming trend throughout next week, with no appreciable rain chances until Thursday night or Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours. A batch of showers with borderline MVFR cigs will move in near daybreak ahead of a of front that may bring additional showers and storms to all terminals Thursday afternoon. High-res models are in disagreement at this time with thunderstorm coverage, so PROB30 groups have been added to the taf to capture this uncertainty. Outside of shower/storm activity, SSW winds will remain breezy overnight with sustained speeds around 10 kts. Speeds will increase after 15Z with gusts up to 25 kts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 81 61 88 / 0 70 40 20 Clarksville 66 79 61 88 / 30 80 40 20 Crossville 59 79 56 82 / 0 60 60 10 Columbia 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Cookeville 61 79 59 83 / 0 70 50 10 Jamestown 59 79 56 82 / 0 70 50 10 Lawrenceburg 62 82 60 86 / 0 60 40 10 Murfreesboro 63 82 59 88 / 0 60 40 10 Waverly 65 79 61 88 / 20 80 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett  512 FXUS64 KLIX 152327 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Patch dense fog is possible during the early morning hours tomorrow through midmorning. Visibilities should be greater than 1 SM, so a dense fog advisory has not been issued. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure continues to build over the region for the next few days through Saturday. Little rain is expected with this pattern, looking at the models. A stray shower or two is possible in afternoons, but won't likely have any appreciable rainfall. Onshore southerly flow will help to advect warmer and more humid air into the region as well during this time. As a result, temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s for the end of the workweek with some locations approaching 90 degrees. Since this is the first big warm spell we have had, make sure to stay hydrated if you will be spending time outdoors in the next few days. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Saturday night into Sunday morning, a frontal system will progress through the area, enhancing rain chances. Looking at the latest model trends, this system is expected to be weakening as it approaches and pushes through the area. Depending on how this trend changes or continues, rainfall could be a little less than we are expecting at the current time. Regardless, scattered showers and storms will be expected as the front moves through the area. Currently, given high PWs (1.4-1.6 inches) with limited lifting, strong storms will be possible with gusty winds (40-60mph), but severe weather is not expected. This could change as we get closer to the weekend, and we will continue to monitor this system. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler and drier on the backside of the system Sunday through the beginning of the workweek. No rainfall is expected Sunday after the front through at least Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low 70s for the beginning of next week. One potential concern especially Monday will be the chance for elevated fire weather concerns. Relative humidities will be in the low to upper 20s, so depending on the winds, we will need to be on the lookout for critical fire conditions as we get closer to the end of the weekend. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Boundary layer decoupling will occur tonight as winds decrease and a surface based temperature inversion forms. As the inversion deepens, low stratus will initially develop at 300 to 500 feet above ground level between 09z and 10z at MCB, BTR, and HDC. Further strengthening of the inversion will result in the low stratus spreading further to the east and south and impacting MSY, HUM, and ASD intermittently between 12z and 14z. At MCB, BTR, and HDC, the stronger inversion will allow for some fog development to occur with visibilties generally between 1 and 3 miles. However, HDC and MCB could see periods where visibilities fall below 1 mile right around sunrise at 12z. Overall, a period of IFR restrictions will be in place at most of the terminals in the 12z to 14z period. Only NEW and GPT should remain in MVFR or better status. After 14z, strong daytime heating and increased boundary layer mixing will allow any fog and stratus to quickly clear and prevailing VFR conditions will return to all of the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...PG MARINE...MSW  826 FXUS63 KMQT 152327 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 727 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through Thursday night. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday evening into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected, with up to 30% probability of exceeding an inch, best chances over the south half. - Becoming much cooler this weekend, which will slow snowmelt. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Anomalous midlevel ridging exists over the eastern third of the CONUS, while a deep, compact trough is over the Pacific Northwest. Between these features, a compact shortwave trough is shifting northeastward across the central Plains. At lower levels, a diffuse boundary runs from low pressure near Omaha to another low in northern Lower Michigan. An area of convection is developing along this boundary in the central Plains, which should move northeastward into this evening. Most of this activity will remain south of the area, although a few showers in the stratiform portion of the convective complex could brush the southeast half overnight, with no impactful precipitation amounts expected. Weak high pressure over Lake Superior is resulting in onshore flow, keeping northern areas cool. Meanwhile, some of the low clouds have cleared out over the interior west, which has allowed temps to spike to 55-60F. Tonight, guidance suggests fog redevelops, with highest confidence in areas where dewpoint depressions remain low this afternoon. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. Thursday, there is better confidence in earlier low clouds clearing in roughly the western half, with shortwave ridging building in. As the airmass remains anomalously warm (850 mb temps around 10C or +1 to +2 sigma), unseasonable warmth will occur where clouds clear and deeper mixing happens, with a high chance of temps in the 70s and a low chance of approaching 80 in some spots. Meanwhile in the east, clouds hanging on longer and potential for onshore flow will keep things significantly cooler, with areas along the lakeshore likely remaining below 50F. Friday, ridging builds ahead of the Pac NW trough shifting across the northern Plains. A strong capping inversion should keep things dry until the front arrives and crosses the UP from west to east roughly 00-06Z Sat. Another very warm day is expected in the west half, while it will be a bit cooler with flow off Lake Michigan in the east half. GFS/NAM indicate elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg with strong deep layer shear, so a few stronger storms resulting in hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Anomalous moisture with PWATs of 1-1.25 inches will be in place, but the quick movement of the trough is expected to limit QPF to 0.25-0.75" in most areas. However, potential for a wave to develop along the front would prolong rainfall a bit, which could result in higher precip amounts (20-30% chance of exceeding an inch in southern locations). A sharply colder airmass will move in for the weekend with temperatures back below normal. Some light snow is possible Saturday morning but is not expected to be impactful. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 727 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Although current observations show all sites are holding VFR, this quickly deteriorates this evening, becoming LIFR/VLIFR tonight. Warm and moist southerly flow accompanied by the snowmelt is supplying ample low level moisture. With calm conditions, areas of dense fog return. There is at least an 80% chance of reaching airport minimum vis during the overnight/early morning hours. Improvement is expected after sunrise on Thursday. VFR returns at IWD first around mid morning, then early afternoon at CMX/SAW. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Areas of dense fog continue through at least tonight into Thursday morning. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, with a 30-50% chance for brief gales over the eastern lake Friday evening. With stable southerly flow, the highest winds will be observed on high observing platforms. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through late Friday into Friday night with 0.25-0.75 inches expected for most areas, and a 20-30% of exceeding an inch in the southern UP. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Waters remain high in the southern UP where recent heavy rains and snowmelt contributed to flooding of low-lying areas and some rivers. Rivers will continue to rise in portions of the northern UP due to continued snowmelt and additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night for all but the far western UP, and may be extended through Friday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ001-003>007- 010>014-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...77 MARINE...LC/Thompson HYDROLOGY...  402 FXUS63 KLBF 152327 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in a return to critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night with some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in below freezing temperatures Friday night which may result in widespread freeze conditions. - Moderate confidence in warmer temperatures returning to by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 With the majority of the precipitation pushed east of the region, weak ridging will continue to build back into the central Plains. This will bring drier and warmer conditions once again across much of the region for Thursday. A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 85 degrees to be nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher for areas east of US-83. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8) with SoT above 0 across portions of north central Nebraska. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Current records sit at 89 for North Platte and 91 at Broken Bow, Valentine, and Imperial. The latest probability suggests maximum temperatures over 90 degrees to be highest (near 45 percent) across extreme north central Nebraska. Therefore, outside of this region (O'Neill area), not expecting highs to rise to near or over 90... therefore records not expected to be broken. However, would not be surprised to see a slight increase in highs over the going forecasted highs as the warming trend continues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. A brief period of rain Thursday night is expected across northwest Nebraska before changing over to all snow as temperatures drop below freezing and remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult during the daytime. Further to the south and east, precipitation will not arrive until Friday afternoon as the trough pushes east. Precip type will generally start off as rain, but as the colder air behind the trough filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. At this time, any snow accumulations should be around or under a half inch, mainly across areas west of Highway 61. The majority of the precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and skies clearing out shortly after Midnight CT. This leads to the next major weather concern in the long term. As precipitation comes to an end and skies clear and combine with cold air filtering into the region, surface low temperatures will plummet to below freezing. Lows in the 20s will be likely across much of the region with portions of the Pine Ridge and eastern Panhandle even dropping into the upper teens. While temperatures across much of the region will have lows in the mid 20s, a freeze watch Friday night will only encompass areas generally south of Highway 2 Friday night where these areas have seen some growing already started and many pivots and sprinklers have been turned on. Temperatures will remain below normals on Saturday with highs only rising into the 50s. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be chilly once again, but a few degrees warmer than Friday night. At this time not anticipating any freeze headlines, but they may be necessary as overnight lows still drop into the mid 20s across the forecast area. Heading into the latter half of the weekend and into next week, upper level ridging remains in place across the western US with surface high pressure across the central Plains allowing for dry conditions to prevail. Persistent warm air advection into the region will allow for a decent warming trend through the beginning of next week. High temperatures will easily rise back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday with lows returning into the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. What few high layer clouds will quickly move out of the region. Winds will become variable over southwest NE to southwesterly over northern NE at 5 - 10 kts through the night. Winds will then shift primarily south southwesterly at 10 to 20 kts, gusting up to 30 kts throughout late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Thursday as RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 15 percent for much of the region with some locations across south central Nebraska dropping to near 10 percent. South southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts across the rest of the area up to 25 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from late Thursday morning through late evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will recover to over 70 percent for much of the region as the next weather system pushes into the region bringing some light precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday. QPF values will remain under a tenth inch (0.10) for areas mainly west of US-83, with lesser amounts to the east. After a brief respite on Friday, humidity values drop back to 15 percent or lower on Saturday continuing into next week, therefore elevated to near critical fire conditions will return on Saturday. With the dry conditions and increasing warming temperatures combined with low RH into next week, critical fire conditions will return through at least Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NEZ204-206-208>210- 219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...MRS FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  735 FXUS63 KDLH 152328 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Dry and gusty conditions are forecast Thursday afternoon leading to near-critical fire weather conditions for areas in Minnesota. - Rain and thunderstorms forecast on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through Thursday night... Fog is expected to develop once again near Lake Superior and become dense with visibility less than 1/4 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Thursday for zones near Lake Superior. Patchy dense fog is possible farther inland and an expansion of the advisory may eventually be needed if conditions warrant. Inland from Lake Superior will see dry and gusty conditions Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s. Around the shore of Lake Superior temperatures will top out in the 40s and 50s. Clouds may linger over along the Canadian border near International Falls and northwest St. Louis County which would keep temps a bit cooler in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to near 30 mph forecast. Efficient mixing will cause RH values to drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland. Near- critical fire weather conditions are forecast for most of our Minnesota area. If fog and low stratus persists longer than expected, the onset of the dry and gusty conditions will be delayed and RH values may not fall as low as currently expected. Fog and stratus to return again Thursday night. Isentropic ascent ahead of a developing low pressure system over the northern Plains will aid in cloud development over central and north-central Minnesota. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed once again. A chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snow, will nose into northern Minnesota ahead of the system. Friday through Saturday night... Low pressure system will progress eastward along with a cool front Friday. Precipitation is forecast to persist or redevelop over Minnesota Friday morning as the system moves east. Over northwest Wisconsin strong Theta-E advection is forecast in the warm sector. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor and over northwest Wisconsin. Favorable low-level hodographs provide support a tornado threat with any storms which can become rooted near the surface. There will also be a risk of large hail with any supercells which develop. The risk is somewhat conditional since the best forcing for ascent may lag behind the greatest instability. Farther west over central and north-central Minnesota, behind the cold front, precipitation will persist through the day as a mix of rain and snow. Little to no snow accumulation is expected during the day due to the high sun angle and light precipitation rates. High temperatures Friday will be a sharp contrast with upper 30s near Birchdale in northwest Koochiching County to the low and middle 70s over northwest Wisconsin. The system will progress farther east Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation will move out of the region Saturday morning. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow Friday night and early Saturday morning. Minor accumulations of around and inch or less are possible an no travel impacts are anticipated. Saturday will be cool with highs only in the low 30s along the Canadian border to around 40 degrees from central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin. Scattered rain and snow showers may redevelop in response to diurnal heating Saturday afternoon and taper off Saturday evening. Sunday through next Wednesday... Temperatures begin to warm up again on Sunday with much warmer, drier, and gustier conditions Monday. A cold front is forecast to pass over the region Monday night and Tuesday The front is expected to pass by without much precipitation. The timing of the front will play a role in high temps on Tuesday. If the front passes by Monday night and early Tuesday morning, temps will recover into the middle 50s to middle 60s Tuesday afternoon. If the front is slower, temps will be cooler Tuesday. Relatively quiet conditions persist into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR until 04Z when fog should take hold again around Lake Superior affecting KDLH until morning (16Z ish). Other terminals possibly affected by this may be KHIB and to a lesser extent KHYR and KINL. KBRD should remain VFR. Fairly confident in timing and intensity of fog. Light winds will eventually increase on Thursday as a cold front approaches turning winds southerly and increasing speeds in the afternoon as deep mixing occurs. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light northeast winds will persist tonight and strengthen Thursday. Wind and waves may become hazardous to small craft near the Twin Ports. A cold front and area of low pressure will move over the region Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will back northwesterly behind the front and strengthen. Wind and waves will be hazardous to small craft by Friday evening. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over western Lake Superior during the afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong. Strong wind gusts are possible within a mile or two of shore. Farther away from shore strong wind gusts are unlikely due to the cold water temperatures keeping the lower atmosphere stable. Gusty winds and high waves will persist Saturday and conditions will improve Sunday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog is expected around Lake Superior tonight with otherwise clear skies. RH recovery will be good overnight with maximum RH values above 85%. A low pressure system will move into the northern Plains Thursday. Gusty southerly winds are forecast during the afternoon into the evening. Efficient mixing is forecast once the fog and low stratus burn off. Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 25 to 35 percent range for areas away from the influence of Lake Superior. Wind gusts of 20 to 28 mph are forecast over central and north-central Minnesota while weaker wind gusts are forecast over the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Near-critial fire weather conditions are anticipated. Warm and gusty conditions are forecast for Friday along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota east across northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over those areas during the afternoon and evening while a rain/snow mix is favored over central and north-central Minnesota. Precipitation will persist and advance eastward Friday night and Saturday morning as a rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts will vary from around a tenth of an inch over central and north- central Minnesota to an inch or more where thunderstorms occur in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Colder temperatures are forecast Saturday before the next warming trend begins Sunday. Dry and gusty conditions may return by Monday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated streamflow continues across the Northland, especially along the North and South Shores. Across the Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into NW WI (outside of the South Shore), rises have been fairly controlled and minor. On the North Shore, antecedent colder snowpack and a tempered return to warmer spring temperatures has meant the melt is still getting going. North Shore rivers are steadily increasing to what looks like a steady snowmelt level with some diurnal bumps forced by more rapid afternoon melt. The Beaver River near Beaver Bay is within action stage this morning, with water expected to be just coming out of banks at this stage with some possible wet spots along the Superior Hiking Trail. Other North Shore streams are following that lead with high flows expected for most waterways in Lake and Cook County through this week as daily temperatures above freezing keep the melt going. On the South Shore, rivers have started to turn over and are either holding steady or starting to come down. Flooding continues along the Montreal River on the WI/MI border. An overall downward trend in river stage but with an embedded diurnal bumps is expected as snowmelt is enhanced in the afternoon. While some passing showers are possible through the week, it's not until Friday-Saturday that a better chance for thunderstorms and widespread rain return to the area. This should allow for remaining snowmelt to keep working through area waterways. By the time Friday rolls around, it seems most plausible that the only significant snowpack remaining would probably be along the North Shore with some pockets of snow lingering in the higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties. Flooding concerns could be two-fold on Friday: rain-on-snow along the North Shore adding onto persisting high flows, and pluvial flash flooding from thunderstorms in areas where conditions are already saturated (mostly NW WI). && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...Huyck HYDROLOGY...Levens  837 FXUS66 KSEW 152328 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 428 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions continue into tonight as an upper low moves across the Pacific Northwest. Cool, dry conditions Thursday and Friday. An upper low will slide southwards along the west coast over the weekend, resulting in the next chance for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Scattered showers continue this afternoon in a post-frontal airmass. Some instability, generally ranging 200-600 J/kg, will continue to result in localized thunderstorms into this evening, particularly along the Olympic Peninsula, as well as in the convergence zone that has developed over King/Kitsap Counties. Small hail, brief gusty winds, and lightning may occur within any thunderstorm. The convergence zone will slowly progress southwards across King County into this evening. Showers will also result in additional snow accumulation at times for the mountains. Snow levels will remain around 1500 to 2000 feet into tonight, with snow for the Cascades Passes. Brief, heavy snow rates can occur in heavier showers as well. In general, precipitation tapers off tonight, with drier conditions developing by Thursday morning. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s for most locations into Thursday morning. In addition to the colder temperatures, skies will clear for the Olympic Peninsula, as well as portions of south Sound. This will help promote frost development into Thursday morning. Have issued a Frost Advisory for many lowland locations across the Olympic and Kitsap Peninsulas. There also remains higher probabilities (over 70 percent) for freeze conditions for Olympia southwards and along the Southwest Interior, for that reason, upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these locations. Will need to monitor the potential for additional Frost Advisories elsewhere, however, lingering clouds are expected for a good portion of the central and north Puget Sound, which may limit any frost. Otherwise, any lingering clouds Thursday morning will clear for some sunshine in the afternoon. Dry conditions then continue through Friday with ridging building into Western Washington. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Saturday, and then slide southwards along the west coast early next week. There remains some uncertainty in regards to the eastward extent of the associated front over the weekend, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall, primarily on Sunday. At this time, the highest chances for rainfall remain along the Olympic Peninsula, but precip potential exists elsewhere as well. Either way, this system will remain rather far offshore, and impacts are expected to be limited. Slight precip chances remain into midweek as the upper low moves onshore, with the bulk of the energy focused south of Western Washington. Seasonable temperatures look to return early next week. JD && .AVIATION...Ceilings have been trending lower than guidance at some terminals. Therefore, seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR this afternoon and likely to see some bouncing around in between categories at times. Latest radar imagery shows convection well underway this afternoon. The chance of isolated thunderstorms still remains below 20-30%. The time frame for thunderstorms is between now and 02Z. Threats with thunderstorms may include lightning, heavy downpours, small hail, gusty/variable winds. In addition, a convergence zone has developed over PAE this afternoon and is expected to sink southwards and impact both BFI and SEA. High-res guidance suggests embedded thunderstorms are possible with the convergence zone as it moves over the terminals. Winds will shift northerly as well between 23Z-03Z with sustained speeds of 8-15 kt. Shower activity will taper off tonight. Light winds 5 kt or less expected tonight into Thursday morning. MVFR cigs possible (20-40% chance) between 12Z-18Z Thursday. KSEA...Ceilings have been bouncing between VFR and MVFR this afternoon, with some lower cloud decks lingering around. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through around 03Z. A convergence zone is expected to impact the terminal this evening as early as 23Z, with winds expected to shift northerly around 23Z and continuing through 03Z with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will then shift southerly after 03Z with speeds around 5 kt. Guidance continues to highlight a slight chance of MVFR cigs between 12Z-18Z, with current probabilities around 20-30%. 29 && .MARINE...Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over area waters today. Main concerns with the thunderstorms are erratic/gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Small Craft Advisories continue in effect for the coastal waters for the combination of steep seas 8-12 ft with a dominant period of 9-10 seconds and winds. Although seas have been hovering slightly below 7-9 ft with the latest obs, seas are expected to build later this evening to 10 ft and thus the Small Craft Advisory for Grays Harbor Bar has been extended through Thursday morning. Thunderstorm activity expected to taper off tonight. High pressure will rebuild over area waters on Thursday and seas are expected to decrease below 10 ft, but still looking to remain steep through Thursday night. A westerly push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on Thursday. However, current probabilities are between 30-45% of winds exceeding 21 kt. High pressure will weaken on Saturday and the next system is expected to impact area waters this weekend. Latest guidance suggests winds and waves will remain below small craft thresholds at this time. 29 && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Northern Hood Canal-Port Townsend Area. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. && $$  407 FXUS61 KILN 152329 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 729 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Potential for severe storms has diminished substantial for the rest of the day into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Strong cold front moves through this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A more significant shortwave will move through the middle Ohio Valley Thursday. With the better forcing occurring in the morning, expect severe risk to be more limited in nature. Behind the wave, can't completely rule out scattered air mass showers and storms developing during the afternoon. Ridging will build north on Friday ahead of the main mid-level trough which will approach from the west. This main wave will bring a strong cold front through the area during the day on Saturday. Details remain uncertain, but there is a threat for severe storms ahead of the front on Saturday. This will, in part, depend on the level of instability which develops Saturday in the warm sector. Either way, strong wind fields aloft will likely bring some threat. Below normal temperatures will follow the front on Sunday and Monday. There still appears to be a frost risk Sunday night, particularly in sheltered locations. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will prevail through the first half of the period. Some cumulus may linger early with a more solid VFR deck spreading across the region before 12Z associated with the remnants of showers and thunderstorms that will occur west of the region. Cannot rule out a lingering shower as this moves through the area, but the chance is low with even a lower potential of having any impact on flight category. In the wake of this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty whether low level moisture will increase enough to result in a period of MVFR ceilings. Greatest confidence of this occurring is at KDAY and even at that the confidence is just high enough to include in the TAF. This will resolve into a scattered to broken cumulus deck late in the period. South winds will veer to the southwest on Thursday and have gusts in excess of 20 kt. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...  727 FXUS64 KMOB 152329 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A strong upper-level ridge over the Southeast US briefly retreats southward as a weakening shortwave pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. Not anticipating any rain as this shortwave passes to our north due to limited moisture and little forcing. The ridge builds back in for Friday and Saturday, leading to very warm temperatures. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark on Friday. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Looking at tonight, rather high dense fog probabilities from SREF/HREF guidance have increased confidence enough to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire local area from midnight tonight through 9 AM Thursday morning. Additionally, with several prescribed burns/wildfires ongoing across the area, we are also concerned for the potential of super fog as heavy smoke can enhance the fog and drastically reduce visibility to near zero. Although the greatest potential for super fog looks to remain away from the I-10 and I-65 corridor, super fog could bring visibility impacts to a few of our interior state highways late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Moisture pooling along the front, along with limited forcing, may allow for a weakening line of showers (or possibly a thunderstorm) to push into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Unfortunately, with forcing quickly lifting away from the area as the line of showers enters the area, we are not anticipating any meaningful rainfall with this front. After the front's passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday will only reach the low to mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. For early next week, highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s and lows will be in the 50s. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday night, lowering to a Low Risk for Friday and into the weekend. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region this evening, gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR flight category after midnight as fog begins to develop across the region. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Through Saturday, afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria. However, given the worsening drought, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area. We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and especially into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 65 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  105 FXUS61 KOKX 152329 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 729 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region. H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain. Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain in place to the south through the period. As weak low pressure and a trailing cold front move across upstate New York today, a prefrontal trough will extend southward into the area this evening. VFR for much the TAF period. There will be a chance of showers/tstms with brief MVFR/IFR conditions this evening and the first part of tonight. The best chances will be north of the NYC terminals and most of the CAMs have backed off on the precip reaching the NYC terminals. Winds have diminished to less than 10 kt. Winds become light and variable in many spots tonight, then increase again on Thursday to 8-15kt with some gusts to near 20kt. Low chance of fog tonight which may bring flight categories down to MVFR or possibly IFR. Te chances are even lower than before, so this has been removed from all TAFs except KGON. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance for a shower at the NYC terminals this evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday: VFR. Gusty S winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD/DBR AVIATION...BR MARINE...MD/DBR  322 FXUS63 KPAH 152330 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 630 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values today, and again Friday. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance) will move into the area late tonight into Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon (30-50% chance) into the early evening (20-30%), and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Broad scale ridging over much of the country has led to another day with highs in the upper 70s into the 80s with near record to record temperatures (highs or warm minimums) today. Breezy winds have gusted to 20-35mph out of the SSW today ahead of a storm system. Afternoon showers/storms are generally northwest of the coverage area, with a few showers reaching far northwestern portions of the Quad State. Low pressure in far southeast Nebraska tracks towards Lake Michigan tonight into early tomorrow. A decaying line of showers and storms moves through the Quad State late tonight into early Thursday. A few strong storms are possible but only the western edge of the CWA is in a marginal risk tonight. Only a few models like the FV3 show redevelopment of storms Thursday afternoon, so PoPs remain but have shifted lower to the 30-50% range. A marginal risk of severe weather covers the Quad State Thursday due to the possibility of afternoon storms developing on a residual boundary as lapse rates steepen, but residual boundaries have limited model support. Rainfall from tonight- Thursday generally ranges from a quarter to half an inch (higher totals more likely in the southwest, lower totals in the northeast). Breezy southerly winds return Friday with ridging expanding back northward. Temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s, potentially challenging records, and a 90 degree ob or two is possible. Eastern ridging finally breaks down as a strong cold front moves through sometime between Friday night and Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible, with a D4 slight risk clipping part of SW Indiana. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe threat. Another quarter to half inch of rain is forecast (higher totals favoring the NE and lower the SW), bringing the two event total to around a half inch to an inch, which would provide some but limited drought relief. Cooler and drier conditions surge into the area Sunday into early next week as a broad area of high pressure moves across the country. Highs lower to the 60s to lower 70s Sunday, then trend warmer through much of next week. Lows trend similarly, falling to near 40 over the weekend and then warming to the 50s by mid-week. Active weather returns late next week, with significant model uncertainty regarding multiple low pressure systems. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect a break in shower and storm activity between now and midnight. Showers and storms return after midnight and will likely affect the terminals at some point overnight and into tomorrow morning. There may be some MVFR cigs with these storms and lower vsbys with heavier downpours. Cigs will lift around the afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the southwest at around 7-12 kts overnight and tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...HICKFORD  205 FXUS64 KLCH 152330 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler, drier air will move into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft continue to dominate the weather pattern across the southeastern U.S. today. A few, light streamer showers have been developing across southeast Texas and western Louisiana where the ridging is a bit weaker and deeper moisture exists. These have not amounted to more than just a brief period of drizzle and this isn't expected to change through the afternoon. Breezy southerly flow will maintain warm and humid conditions across the region through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will move through the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning accompanied by a broken swath of showers and thunderstorms. A narrow swath of deep moisture along and ahead of the front will support periods of heavy rainfall. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall roughly along and north of the HWY 190 corridor for the possibility of nuisance flooding from high rainfall rates. Storm totals are still expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch which wont be enough to put a significant dent in the ongoing drought, but every little bit helps. Cooler, drier and much more pleasant air will advect into the region in the wake of the frontal passage Sunday with highs Sunday afternoon in the low to mid 70s. A couple of chilly nights are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings with lows in the low to mid 50s. Winds will turn back out of the south Tuesday afternoon initializing a gradual warmup through the second half of next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions continue through the evening at all sites as southerly winds diminish to around 5-10 kt. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all sites tonight after 06-09Z. Added mention of fog to southern terminals as well, as guidance is hinting at increased potential for this particularly for LFT and ARA. At this time any visibility reductions tonight are anticipated to remain in the MVFR range. Any fog and/or low clouds should dissipate by 15-16Z. VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 kt can then be expected across the area through the daytime hours Thursday. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy onshore winds will persist through Saturday with seas consistently in the 1-3 foot range. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Strong offshore winds will develop following the frontal passage with gusts to gale force possible through the day Sunday. Winds will remain elevated through Monday morning before gradually diminishing Monday afternoon. Onshore flow will become reestablished Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Breezy southerly winds will maintain warm, humid conditions across the region through Saturday with no appreciable precipitation chances during that time. A cold front will push through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler, drier air will filter in on breezy northeasterly winds Sunday. Lower minimum RH values are expected Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...64  664 FXUS63 KAPX 152331 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 731 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and embedded storms through Thursday. Heaviest rainfall is expected later this evening/tonight with the potential for another 1"+ near M-55 corridor. - Break in rain chances Friday before additional showers/storms Saturday. - Much colder temperatures and light snow chances late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak troughing will lift from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Ridging will temporarily slide over the region late this week, building high pressure in on Friday. This will quickly be shunted east as strong troughing punches over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. The associated surface cyclone will track across the Upper Midwest into Canada Friday/Friday night, swinging a front across the state on Saturday. Surface high pressure then looks to build in behind this system to start next week. Forecast Details: Light showers have blossomed near Saginaw Bay/Lake Huron across northeast lower this afternoon and are expected to continue into this evening. Additional rainfall amounts associated with this activity should stay under 0.25". Showers and storms currently forming upstream across parts of the Midwest will be the primary concern. These showers/storms will track east across the lake with time this evening. While there's still uncertainty in how this will evolve with time, current confidence is that this activity will work across areas along and south of M-72 later this evening and tonight. Once again, the heaviest rain potential is expected along and south of M-55. Current forecast rainfall ranges from 0.5" to 1" for this area into Thursday morning with the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 1" should any heavier rain/embedded storms track over our far southern counties. This certainly raises additional flood concerns across already impacted areas that are extremely sensitive to more rainfall. Otherwise, areas of fog are likely again tonight and Thursday morning as rain chances continue through Thursday afternoon, although anticipation is that showers on Thursday will be relatively light. Aforementioned high pressure building in will bring an end to rain chances, bringing a pleasant day back to the Northwoods on Friday with sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and even low 70s across interior northern lower and cooler highs across the eastern U.P. and along the lakeshores. Unfortunately for areas impacted by flooding, the break in rain chances will be brief as additional showers and storms are expected on Saturday as the front swings through -- potentially exacerbating ongoing flooding/recovery efforts. A drastic airmass change is in store behind the front, plummeting temperatures into the 20s and 30s Saturday night and lasting into early next week. Forecast profiles currently appear on the dry side, but light snow chances will return to the forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cigs/vsbys will worsen tonight, as low clouds/stratus expands, and as -SHRA move in from the sw. Already LIFR at CIU/PLN/APN, and IFR/LIFR will expand into TVC/MBL by midnight. Best chance of TSRA will be at MBL tonight. Conditions will improve Thursday afternoon. Light northerly breezes. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JZ  335 FXUS63 KIWX 152331 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 731 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through tonight as additional rainfall may cause renewed flooding in some areas. - A brief break is expected Thursday night into Friday before a stronger front arrives with more showers and thunderstorms. - Overall temperatures will remain above normal, with a dip to near or slightly below normal Sunday behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain will persist into Thursday as the region remains on the warm side of a persistent trough to the west. The discussion will focus mainly through Saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short time. A series of MCV's and other weaker disturbances, remnant outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms into Thursday. Greatest severe threat today appears to exist where it has the past couple of days from IA/IL area southwest into OK and TX, but our area lies in a Slight risk (2 out of 5) for large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover and multiple rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability, but enough shear and CAPE will exist to bring a threat for stg- svr storms. The first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across NW parts of the area. A small area of storms has been intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty winds. This will continue ENE and pose a threat for severe weather. SWOMCD #446 was just sent by SPC discussing the concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. CAMs generally suggest another round towards 00Z and again overnight as the sfc low passes to our NW. Severe threat could return again towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. On the hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected through tonight, opted to expand the Flood Watch to the entire area and expire at 12Z Thu. Do not expect widespread flood issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually cause rising river levels. Showers may linger into the start of Thursday, but model trends seem to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level support is exiting. SPC DY2 reflects this with a Marginal Risk across SE half or so of the area and could see this possibly being trimmed further in future outlooks. In the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we should get a break in precip Thursday night into Friday evening before a stronger trough (entering the Pacific NW) dives into the Plains and eventually makes it to the Great Lakes into Sat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late Fri night into early Sat). This is reflected with the main severe threat Fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on Sat. Time to sort that out. Colder air then arrives behind this front with a brief return to 40s and 50s Sunday then moderation back into the 60s and 60s for the work week. Rain chances appear limited at this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most likely will bring precip chances back. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The area continues to be in the warm sector with plenty of moisture moving through the overnight as a cold front moves through by Thursday morning. Given cloudiness and left over stability left behind by early afternoon convection, recovery is in question and remains the main area of uncertainty with a second chance for thunderstorms between 00 and 3z tonight. Otherwise, another batch of rain approaches around 6z according to the HRRR model. Thunderstorm ingredients like shear and instability wane the rest of the day Thursday so that while scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible, the severity of thunderstorms looks weaker for Thursday. With all of that, the chance for MVFR or lower conditions will depend on thunderstorms 2z to 9z and then FWA has a period of probably more tempo MVFR CIGs between 9 and 13z Thursday AM. Winds come out of the southwest for the bulk of the period and we'll have gusty winds to around 25 kts during the day Thursday with the cold front nearby and its attendent LLJ overhead. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015- 017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller  654 FXUS66 KPDT 152331 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 431 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows a closed upper low centered over southwest British Columbia early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a robust cold front is trekking across eastern Oregon and far southeast Washington. In the wake of the front, skies have become clear to partly cloudy across much of the Columbia Basin and vicinity, with upslope convective showers noted across the Cascade crest. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in an additional 2-6 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades and northern Blue Mountains, and 4-8 inches for the Oregon Cascades. While the bulk of the steady snowfall has ended for the Cascades -- and will end through this afternoon for the Blues as the front sags southeast -- snow showers will persist through tonight into Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves over northeast Washington. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds have developed in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. While winds of 20-30 mph coupled with gusts of 30-40 mph have developed in climatologically wind-prone locations, confidence in the need for any wind headlines is low-medium (30-60 percent), highest for the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Winds will be locally stronger along exposed ridges within the Columbia Plateau region. The cold air mass associated with the low has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities still suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for tonight into Thursday morning where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon). Will note there is still uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours, so confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is shaky (50-60 percent), but think areas of freezing temperatures still have a high enough chance of developing to retain the warnings. An upper-level ridge will likely (90 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. Have not issued any Freeze Watches to avoid confusion given the existing Freeze Warnings for Thursday morning. Uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows through the weekend, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest Saturday through the remainder of the period. Precipitation chances increase Sunday, but especially Monday and Tuesday, in what is looking increasingly like a potential convective set-up for portions of the forecast area. Another deformation band similar to what was observed earlier in the week is also looking like a potential outcome should the closed low track inland along a supportive path, but confidence in that solution is currently low (20-25 percent). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... The region is in a post cold frontal regime, and winds will remain gusty behind this front for the balance of Today and Tonight. Gusts will gradually diminish to the 20 to 30 mph range during the overnight however, through this evening gusts of 30 to 40 mph will still be common at most of the terminals. IFR conditions however have ended and a VFR forecast is anticipated for the rest of the Tonight. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 31 53 32 57 / 30 10 0 0 ALW 34 54 36 57 / 50 30 0 0 PSC 34 61 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 30 59 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 32 59 34 62 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 29 51 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 22 48 21 57 / 40 10 0 0 LGD 28 46 29 54 / 70 40 10 0 GCD 25 45 25 54 / 70 40 0 0 DLS 35 56 35 63 / 40 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...71  065 FXUS64 KSHV 152332 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - A round of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, will proceed along and north of the I-30 corridor overnight. - Frontal passage will occur through Saturday afternoon, with a 30-40% chance of at least 1 inch of rain across the area. - Cooler than normal temperatures return by Sunday into the beginning of next week with a gradual warm-up through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 After tonight's round of strong to severe thunderstorms (mostly across SE Oklahoma and Arkansas), an active weather pattern will continue into the weekend as troughing continues across the Intermountain West and ridging over the East Coast. This general pattern of troughing and ridging, although transient, will hold through the next week with multiple longwave troughs traversing the upper Great Plains into the Midwest atop the ridge over the Southeast U.S. coastline. One of the aforementioned troughs will carry an attendant frontal boundary across the area on Saturday, instigating another round of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Ingredients necessary for severe weather with this round remains meager at the moment with kinematic and thermodynamic parameters not reading as high yet. Temperatures will remain above normal (maximums/minimums in the upper 80s/mid-60s) until Saturday's frontal passage produces a brief return to below normal chill (maximums/minimums in the lower 70s/lower 40s). QPF Day 1-7 rainfall values of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected as a result. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 16/00Z TAFs, scattered showers are pushing into northwestern ArkLaTex airspace at this hour. A few showers in the vicinity will be possible at KTYR this evening, with impacts not reaching KTXK until late. A mix of lower VFR and high cloud decks will persist through the night until CIGs drop to MVFR levels after 16/10Z. South winds will continue throughout, becoming southwesterly tomorrow, at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 20 kts possible tomorrow afternoon. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 86 67 88 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 66 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 0 DEQ 61 82 62 85 / 70 20 10 10 TXK 67 86 68 88 / 50 20 10 0 ELD 63 85 64 88 / 30 30 10 0 TYR 67 85 67 86 / 40 10 0 0 GGG 67 85 66 87 / 30 10 0 0 LFK 67 87 66 88 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...26  780 FXUS61 KBGM 152334 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 734 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. Still anticipating an area of thunderstorms to move through this evening and again Thursday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this evening and into the early overnight hours. Damaging winds and locally heavy rain are the main threats. 2) Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain are the primary threats. 3) A dramatic pattern shift will begin Sunday with a round of showers and storms followed by falling temperatures Sunday night and Monday, along with light snow showers and gusty northwest winds early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The near term concerns are focused around the threat for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms later today. The environment continues to destabilize this afternoon with surface temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, as of 1 PM, but will jump into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the next couple hours. Surface dew points in the lower 60s will contribute to SB CAPE values ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg, along with steepening low level lapse rates. The combination of a plume of deep available moisture, 25 to 35 kt of deep shear and mid level lapse rates around 6.7 degC/km should provide enough ingredients for deep convection and strong to possibly severe storms. Convective initiation could end up being the challenge. There really isn't any well-defined feature to provide the support for strong ascent, unless the remnants of a propagating, relatively small MCS/MCV coming out of the southern Great Lakes make it to the western NY/PA border. This potential feature could provide the support for the storms to persistent farther to the east and also maintain intensity. The primary threats within any of these storms will be damaging wind gusts between the hours of 6 PM and 12 AM. However, given the amount of deep layer moisture and PWs around 1.5 inches, and if heavy rain falls over the same area or on locations with moist antecedent surface conditions, the threat for localized flash flooding could be enhanced. The convection is expected to diminish in intensity and coverage after 1 AM Thu with fog likely late tonight and early Thu morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... The potential for another round of thunderstorms exists late in the day Thursday as well. An east-west oriented boundary across the region will lift to the north during the morning and afternoon Thursday and allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s once again. Plenty of low level moisture and increasing instability will create favorable conditions for strong to possibly severe convection later in the afternoon Thursday, and into the evening hours. An upper short wave to the west will help provide the necessary forcing for large scale ascent, and when combined with building instability should be sufficient for scattered areas of strong to possibly severe storms. The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook is highlighting a good portion of central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. The primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds, but a secondary threat of a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the amount of shear with backed surface winds along the boundary across central NY. The threat for heavy rain leading to excessive runoff and flash flooding cannot be overlooked either. With multiple previous days of rain and wet surface conditions, any heavy rain exceeding approximately 1.5 inches in an hour could potentially cause issues. Again, after a loss of heating Thursday evening, most of the intense convection should diminish and end close to/around midnight. KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence continues to increase in the onset of a relatively cold air mass early next week. On Saturday a deepening trough over the central US will cause a downstream ridge to amplify over the Northeast and allow for a brief warm up into the low to mid 70s. The leading edge of this cold air mass will push in from the west/sw in the form of showers and thunderstorms Sat night and early Sunday. Brief heavy rain will be followed by falling temperatures Sunday during the afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday midday will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, but drop into the mid to upper 20s Sunday night. Winds will start to really increase out of the northwest Sunday night and continue through the day Monday and Mon night. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s...and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph will make it feel even colder at times. Drier air settles in Mon night but with mid to upper 20s once again. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A batch of showers and thunderstorms is now developing across the NY Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. These showers and storms will move east through the evening hours, with another round back near Buffalo NY/Erie PA poised to move through by late evening. The highest probabilities to see restrictions from these showers and storms will be at ELM, ITH and BGM...but eventually it looks to spread north toward SYR and RME as well. Restrictions should be mainly MVFR, but occasional IFR restrictions are also possible in thunderstorms and brief heavy rain (especially at ITH and BGM). As these thunderstorms push through expect brief periods of gusty and erratic wind gusts and even some localized hail will be possible. Following these showers and thunderstorms, lingering low ceilings and patchy fog/mist will likely keep restrictions around at least until 06Z, before a gradual return to VFR. However, RME will see lingering MVFR to IFR CIGs through 13-16z Thursday morning as the warm front lifts back north. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions areawide through Thursday afternoon. Outlook: Thursday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers. Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT AVIATION...BJG/MJM  225 FXUS66 KMTR 152336 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 436 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Seasonably cool temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast and across the higher elevations through this evening as a deep upper level low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will push through the region late this evening into Thursday morning. Not anticipating fog to develop tonight but patches of low level stratus are likely as the cold front moves through the region. Early morning cloud cover today is helping to keep our high temperatures cooler with 60s expected across the interior and 50s to 60s expected along the coast. Cooler overnight temperatures are expected Thursday morning across the North Bay where clear skies will allow for enough radiational cooling for lows to drop into the upper 30s. The rest of the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast will have patchy stratus insulation overnight which will keep lows in the 40s. Elevated terrain in the eastern Santa Clara Hills and Gabilan Range will be slightly cooler with lows in the upper 30s. Heading into Thursday we see the return of gusty offshore winds. A deep upper level trough will shift into the Northern Rockies and progress eastwards. While not a classic inside slider, the trough is enough to generate moderate to strong northerly offshore winds across the region. These winds will be strongest across the interior North Bay Mountains, the Diablo Range, and favored mountain gaps/passes. Peak gusts will be between 35 to 45 mph with locally higher gusts possible across the highest ridgelines of the Mayacamas Mountains (bordering Lake, Yolo, and Solano Counties). Fire weather concerns remain minimal due to the recent wetting rains but any residents or anyone visiting the mountains Thursday/Friday should be prepared for gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Gusty offshore winds will continue into early Friday morning before winds dissipate Friday afternoon/evening. The deep upper level trough will continue to progress eastward while a progressive high- amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. As the ridge moves in winds will ease and warmer temperatures will return Friday and Saturday. Interior highs will reach the low to mid 70s while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. The interior Central Coast remains the warmest with highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s with temperatures peaking on Saturday. Morning temperatures will be chilly on Friday with portions of the interior Central Coast dropping into the low to mid 30s (vicinity of Bradley and Parkfield). Unsettled weather returns late Sunday into early next week as a deep upper level trough pushes into the West Coast. This trough will move down from the Gulf of Alaska and is associated with a surface low pressure system moving into Northern California. Cold frontal passage is expected to occur Sunday into Monday with widespread rain across the region. Rainfall is expected to be beneficial with 1-2" across the coastal mountains and half an inch to an inch across the lower elevations. There is a slight (10-15%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons. Temperatures look to be seasonable to seasonably cool in the 50s to 60s Monday/Tuesday. Cluster guidance is in good agreement that a trough will develop but there is still some uncertainty as to when the trough will arrive/how fast it will progress eastwards. It is possible that this system will continue to slow down and the rain window will shift more Monday-Wednesday than Sunday-Tuesday (as it is in the current forecast). No real wind concerns with this upcoming system. Conditions will get breezier Sunday into Monday across the higher terrain, along the coast, and across mountain gaps/passes but it will stay below wind advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak cold front is moving through northern California and will push through the Bay Area tonight. The impacts of this system will be high clouds for the first half of the TAF period, and strong winds in the second half. In the meantime, there is a good chance for another round of MVFR stratus to sneak in at many of the terminals before the ragged marine layer becomes disrupted from frontal passage late Thursday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Strong westerly winds will continue through the evening before gradually decreasing through the late night and early morning hours. The best chance for ceilings is between 03Z and 09Z, before more unstable conditions work to mix out the clouds after the front moves through. After the skies clear, very strong westerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 35 knots possible. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Since the front will take longer to reach the southern terminals, the window for MVFR stratus will last through 12-15Z before the clouds mix out. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 425 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak front will sweep through the coastal waters this evening and tonight. The passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal waters and bays through Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  582 FXUS61 KCAR 152337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 737 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -730 PM Update: Added drizzle in across the forecast area based on forecast soundings ahead of the more stratiform rain tonight, and increased to areas of fog throughout the CWA as the low level inversion holds strong. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. 2) Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system developing in the northern Great Plain is expected to track towards the Great Lakes Saturday, then move into Canada Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to sweep through the region Sunday. Sunday morning should begin with rain and continue through the afternoon. The cold front should exit the area by early Sunday night, switching winds to NW flow. Ample cold air advection is expected to drop temps to below freezing after midnight on Sunday night. This should switch any remain precip to snow. By Monday, temps will increase in the south, switching snow back to rain, but snow should remain in the north. Cold temps should remain to the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Moist air mass remains in place overnight through Thursday. This will result in the possibility of some locally dense fog developing late tonight into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tonight...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings, patchy fog, drizzle, and scattered showers. Winds light and variable. Thursday through Thursday night...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and scattered showers. Improvement to MVFR possible KBGR/KBHB for a brief period Thursday afternoon. Light SE wind. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. Monday...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. Visibility will fall to 1 NM or less at times tonight through Thursday morning in fog. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AES/TWD/ARL AVIATION...AES/TWD/ARL  377 FXUS63 KGRB 152338 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 638 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain/storm arrives from the south later this afternoon and evening. One inch hail would be the main hazard with any stronger storms. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate ongoing areal flooding. Flash flooding would be possible in areas that have already received multiple inches of rainfall, or over areas that see training storms. - Minor to moderate flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several rivers. Expect many rivers to continue rising this week, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River where major flooding has been observed. - Widespread rain/storms will again be possible on Friday. Some storms could become strong or severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rain/storm chances today... Frontal boundary remains stalled out over southern Wisconsin as of early this afternoon, which will bring our next chances for rain and storms later this afternoon into this evening. Par for the course, the main concern will be how any additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding, especially in areas that are already vulnerable. Overall, we're looking at receiving an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF through tonight, with probabilistic guidance showing a 30 to 50% signal for 0.5" of rain over the southern Fox Valley. Reasonable high- end scenario (90 to 95th percentile) would bring amounts in excess of one inch from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore, though this would most likely occur with a slight northward shift of the boundary and training storms. If these amounts were to be realized, flash flood thresholds would likely be met over east- central Wisconsin where soils are already saturated and areal flooding is ongoing. Severe threat for this afternoon looks less distinguished than yesterday given unfavorable placement north of the front and stable easterly boundary layer flow. Elevated instability (300 to 500 J/kg MUCAPE) and appreciable deep-layer shear (50+ knots) sneak into our southern tier of counties late this afternoon, though the threat for any surface-based storms is low. Cannot rule out the possibility for an elevated hailer or two given elongated hodographs and decent lapse rates, though suspect that severe potential would be rather limited. Strong/severe storms late week... Following a brief lull in precip Thursday into Friday, 500 mb pattern then re-amplifies toward the end of the week. Robust trough approaches from the Intermountain West on Saturday as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains, bringing with them yet more chances for widespread heavy rain and strong or severe storms. Southerly flow regime would support decent moisture transport from an open Gulf, with a narrow corridor of 60 dewpoints possible along the leading edge of cold FROPA. Decent instability (~1,000 J/kg CAPE) would favor linear ascent along the front, resulting in likely upscale development into a QLCS storm mode Friday evening and overnight. Main source of uncertainty at this time centers around timing of the front, which currently looks to be late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Regardless, this system looks to be much more dynamic than what we've seen this week thus far, especially with the influence of a 50+ knot LLJ and favorable deep layer shear. Given an ample supply of Gulf moisture, heavy rain once again becomes a concern Friday into Saturday. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a widespread 30 to 50% chance for receiving 1 inch of rain, with a signal (10 to 30% chance) for exceeding 1.5". Locally higher amounts would be possible within convection. As such, flash flood potential would once again come into play Friday into Saturday, where WPC currently highlights most of the state in a marginal Day 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Muc colder air wraps in from the northwest on the back end of the departing surface low on Saturday, resulting in a probable transition from rain to snow across the far north. Probabilities for half an inch of snow currently stand at 20 to 40% mainly over Vilas, so little to no impacts are expected. Temperatures then drop off steeply by Saturday afternoon, bringing highs down into the 30s and 40s for most. High pressure then settles in over the CONUS late this weekend and into early next week, affording us a much needed dry spell. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Conditions have improved to VFR across north-central and portions of central Wisconsin early this evening with MVFR/IFR stratus across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore. An area of showers and thunderstorms still look on track to affect mainly the east-central Wisconsin TAF sites this evening, with only light rain in the next few hours across the central Wisconsin TAF sites while north-central Wisconsin remains mostly dry. Light rain will linger across the east through the overnight hours. A strong hail-producing storm or two cannot be ruled out during this time; however, severe potential should be limited. Conditions could drop to IFR/LIFR with any heavier rain. Light winds and recent rainfall may result in areas of fog/low stratus development late tonight into early Thursday morning. Locally dense fog with vsbys below 1SM will be possible, though was not confident enough to provide timing resolution as of yet. Conditions then improve to VFR on Thursday from west to east as skies clear across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Following another bout of heavy rain and storms yesterday, widespread flooding continues across portions of central to east- central Wisconsin where an areal Flood Warning remains in effect. Several roads remain closed, especially in areas that received between 3 and 6 inches of convectively-enhanced precip over the past 48 hours. Multiple rivers, namely the Wolf, Menominee, and Wisconsin Rivers, continue to read in minor to moderate flood stage, with the Menominee River now in major flood stage due to the additional influence of snow melt from the Upper Peninsula. Home evacuations are ongoing along the Wolf River. High flows and rising water levels have also resulted in several dams being compromised or overtopped. If you live near a river or stream, continue to monitor the latest hydro forecasts and Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ031-037>040-045- 048>050-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Kurimski HYDROLOGY......Goodin  293 FXUS64 KJAN 152340 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through early next week (Tuesday)... Tonight through Friday: Southerly return flow will keep fog development on cards for the overnight period. 12Z HREF and REFS indicate good dense fog probs (40 to 60 percent) for areas that had fog issues early this morning. Based on continued stagnant and carbon copy of an environment, went ahead again with an HWO graphic for dense fog and thinking about potential for a Dense Fog Advisory in the southeast Pine Belt areas. Weekend into early next week (Saturday through next Tuesday): Mean ridging over the Gulf Coast into the southeast states will shunt an approaching front off to the northwest. A shortwave trough and front will drive some rain chances into the Highway 82 corridor into Tuesday, with the timing mainly in the afternoon to evening hours and low coverage (20 to 35 percent). Ridge will build back in the wake into Friday, with decent probability (30 to 60 percent) for high temperatures reaching 90 degrees. Amplifying longwave pattern will commence with a deep synoptic trough and cold front driving down Friday night into early Saturday. The low pressure system at the surface and aloft will be well north, into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and Canada. However, this will drive the cold front into the area late Saturday evening into Sunday. There will be enough convergence and deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) to bring in decent rain and storm coverage (50 to 70 percent). This will bring good beneficial rains, but less than an inch, which will not make a huge dent in the ongoing drought concerns. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms but confidence in severe storms is on the low side. Anomalous surface high around 1025mb will drive in much cooler and dry weather across the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Temps will be seasonably cool into late weekend and early next week (i.e. lows in the mid to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday, with highs generally in low to mid 70s through Tuesday). /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail until after 09Z when IFR/LIFR vsbys wl develop in the se. MVFR cigs wl also begin developing sw and cntrl after 09Z. The vsby wl improve by 15Z but the MVFR cigs wl take until 18Z to improve. VFR conditions are expected Thu aftn through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 86 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 61 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 66 85 67 88 / 10 20 10 0 Greenwood 66 85 66 89 / 0 20 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ056>058- 063>066-072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /DC/22  668 FXUS65 KPIH 152341 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 541 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will continue into the evening, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Warning has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Thursday and Friday mornings with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely by Friday morning. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Drastic pattern change is underway as a cold late-winter system descends on East Idaho. Satellite water vapor imagery shows closed low off BC Canada coast with moisture plume streaming through Idaho. Shortwave axis visible draped along PacNW coast. Radar shows moisture slowly filling in across East Idaho, but surface dew point depressions remain steep outside of the higher elevation areas, so precipitation may take some time to develop for the Snake Plain and lower elevations. Lastly, winds remain gusty across portions of the Upper Snake Plain region, and a WIND ADVISORY remains in place into the evening. Focus for precipitation through midnight remains across the Central Mountains and Island Park region. Afternoon snow levels around 6500 ft in the Central Mountains rise to around 7500 ft across the southern highlands, but rapidly fall behind strong cold front driving through the region overnight. This brings snow down to valley floors for most areas by Thursday morning. Snow totals still remain strong enough over high elevations to produce mild travel impacts above 6500 ft, so will maintain the current WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY as well. Snow showers become more plentiful during the day Thursday, even at lower elevations, with highs expected to top out in the mid 40s for most locations. Winds remain gusty behind the front, but should remain below Advisory criteria. Additionally, high- res models continue support for 2nd frontal feature/convergence zone late Thursday that will likely help produce the best chance for accumulating snow in the Snake Plain. Road temperatures remain quite warm and accumulations remain below 2" even across the Upper Plain, so at this time we expect minimal travel impacts, and will hold off on additional headlines for now. Potentially one of the biggest impacts will be the cold temperatures following the cold front, beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, especially after prolonged warmer than normal period. Overnight lows throughout the Snake Plain range 28-32 degrees, supportive of a FREEZE WARNING. Given the even colder temperatures for Thursday night, have already upgraded the FREEZE WATCH to a FREEZE WARNING. For the Thursday night/Friday morning lows, the lows are supportive of a HARD FREEZE, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s. Given the early growing season this year, these extremely low temperatures are expected to be particularly impactful. We believe that additional headlines will be necessary even into Saturday and potentially Sunday morning, but will address with upcoming packages. Looking into the weekend and early next week, dry conditions are expected with a warming trend into early next week. Overnight lows do rise back above freezing again by Monday morning. Ensemble means support another trough shifting into the western US by mid week next week. Precipitation chances return as early as Tuesday with more confidence by Wednesday. There is quite a bit of spread among the ensembles especially by Wednesday with respect to progression of the trough through the west, so expect some fluctuation in the forecast until confidence increases. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cold front and associated low are wreaking havoc with CIG and occasionally VSBY at all airdromes. There appears to be something of a break with improved (but not necessarily VFR) conditions during this evening, but a resurgence appears likely during the overnight hours starting around 16/04Z at KSUN to 16/06Z in the east. Partial clearing appears to develop first at KSUN just as operations re-start in the morning, while other airdromes will have to wait until the mid- to late morning hours. Only KDIJ appears to have a risk of IFR conditions with most others only dealing with marginal VFR. Wind will actually stay elevated most locations save KSUN. 15G25KT will occur quite a bit overnight, with KIDA having some 20G30KT. Then during the day KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA all deal with 20G30KT. Fortunately it hasn't got much crosswind component for the primary runways. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ051>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-067. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...Messick  231 FXUS63 KDVN 152342 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated-scattered showers/storms are expected through the afternoon, with a line of strong/severe storms set to come through this evening. Severe weather is possible, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. - A seasonally strong storm system will impact our area Friday afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. - Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front, bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area. Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Seasonally strong shortwave trof currently located over central Nebraska will continue to track east through Iowa this afternoon/evening. A surface low pressure will pass southwest to northeast just northwest of our area, dragging a cold front through our area this evening/tonight. While we already have ongoing showers and storms, we are expecting another round of storms as the cold front moves through the area this evening/tonight. Ahead of that, we will have a stationary/warm front draped over the area, which will be another focus for convective initiation ahead of the main line of convection. This is currently located between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. Thus, a few rounds of storms are expected today, where flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains for those areas at greatest risk, owing to heavy rainfall yesterday. The SPC has our whole area outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather today, where our best chances for severe weather will be with the line of storms progged to come through with the cold front this evening. Isolated severe storms are possible ahead of this through the afternoon, but confidence is low on coverage and severity. Looking at model soundings, we can expect another day of mixed-mode convection. Early-Mid afternoon, we are likely to continue to see scattered showers and storms. Given a lot of cloud cover and higher coverage of showers/storms in our north, the severe threat should remain relatively low into mid-afternoon. Although, areas south of Interstate 80 will have seen more sun peeking through, which has allowed more instability to build. Thus, there will be a little more of a severe threat in our south, generally in the form of semi- discrete supercells. Confidence is low on this at this time, but will further get monitored for the potential through mesoscale analysis this afternoon. This convection will generally be seen between the hours of 12-4 PM. Going into late afternoon and evening, we will see a line (possibly disconnected line of supercells) moving into our area from west to east, with some leading semi-discrete cells as well. The leading cells could be supercellular, which are currently looking to develop between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. These supercells may form just ahead of the line, generally between 4-6 PM, and then get absorbed into the main line. As we get towards the evening hours, the aforementioned line (QLCS- like with embedded supercells) will move through the area from west to east. Timing-Wise, this is expected to move into our west around 5-7 PM, and move out of our area by midnight local time. The best severe threat will be in the late afternoon/evening hours, but gradually decreasing after sunset. Now a look into the environment in place. The AM convection and resultant cloud cover has delayed our surface heating a bit, but clearing skies have been seen. This may limit the overall instability, but will still be sufficient. We are still looking at the potential for CAPE around 2000-3000+, collocated with shear around 50-60+ KTs, with little/no cap seen in forecast soundings. Thus, we have the necessary CAPE/Shear balance to favor supercells today. Although, with strong forcing moving in this afternoon and evening, upscale growth is expected. As was mentioned, this could be in the form of a disconnected line with embedded supercells. Lapse rates are once again favorable for hail in the midlevels, collocated with a fat CAPE profile in the hail growth layer. SPC highlights parts of our area in the potential for significant hail (2"+), which is possible. Otherwise, all hazards are in play today, with the primary threat being winds and embedded tornadoes when the line of convection comes through this evening. We are especially focusing on counties along the Interstate 80 corridor, as this is generally where the stalled out boundary will be. This will serve as a focus point for severe weather (some significant severe weather possible), with the increased tornado threat. Tonight and through Thursday, weak ridging moves in, with a surface high pressure quickly passing through. Thus, after any residual showers move out Thursday AM, we should remain dry for the remainder of the day. Clouds will also decrease through the day, with light winds and temperatures increasing into the mid-upper 70s. Thus, we are in for a beautiful day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will be another day of concern, as a potent shortwave tracks off of the Rockies and towards the Upper Midwest. This wave will develop a seasonally strong low pressure system, progged to drag a strong cold front through the area. Ahead of this, we will have an environment favorable for organized convection that can become strong to severe. Uncertainty remains with regards to timing, which can lead to impacts on the overall severe threat. Guidance has been hinting at this moving through Friday evening/night. Ahead of that, we will see a mix of clouds/sun, which will help build instability. According to model soundings, we may have CAPE values upwards to 2000-3000+, with shear around 35-45 KTs. The shear is a little lower than we have seen with the recent events, but sufficient for organized convection. Although, this would lead me to believe that we will largely be dealing with a line of strong/severe convection, but some initial isolated-scattered storms cannot be ruled out. More details are to come, as more short term hi-res CAMs start rolling in over the next 24-36 hours. The SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for areas east of the Mississippi River. Continue to monitor the forecast for future updates. This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in, bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with areas north of Interstate 80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this timeframe. Although, confidence is lower on this now, as temperatures have trended upwards a few degrees since the last forecast package. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with mostly clear skies. While cooler, it should be a relatively pleasant weekend. Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The main focus for the 00z TAF issuance will be SHRA/TSRA that is currently just to the west of the terminals. This activity is expected to continue to move east over the next few hours. Periods of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibility are possible with any storms impacting the terminals and visibility dropping lower in heavier activity. Erratic wind gusts 35-40 kts may be possible with the line of TSRA. Conditions improve west to east behind the departing line of storms, although guidance hints at the potential for shower or storms to linger at DBQ for a couple of hours. Low level moisture works its way back into the area tonight with lowering MVFR ceilings at DBQ and MLI. Conditions will improve after day break Thursday. South winds this evening will veer toward the west overnight and northwest on Thursday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054. IL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Diegan  150 FXUS61 KAKQ 152342 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 742 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs. Climate section updated with today's new record highs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. However, the MUCH lower dew pts (generally in the 50s) which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today from late this afternoon into early evening, and again tomorrow will likely be the hottest temperatures of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast and into the lower 90s inland (with some localized mid 90s possible). Currently, inland temperatures are around 90F, and will likely rise another 1-3 degrees through 5 PM. Winds have been somewhat less than anticipated (so far), allowing some localized onshore flow at the coast, with temps in the 70s and 80s. SBY has already broken today's daily record high, and RIC has already tied the record. ORF may do so before the day is over if the winds switch back to the SW and increase, while the record appears unlikely at ECG. Additional records may be tied or broken on Thursday (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry again today, the Increased Fire Danger Statement continues into early evening for portions of VA (with high likelihood that another one will be issued for tomorrow (Thu). This is where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co- located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA (and could be expanded a bit farther SE for Thursday). The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS today and this will also likely be re-issued for Thursday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-35% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday (as currently forecast), the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The highest PoPs will be across the north, but a few models have increased PoPs enough into SE VA for low-end chc PoPs there as well. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to low-end likely (~60%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have remained similar to last night's runs (50-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. However, ensemble probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 00z/16 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts of 20-25kt lasting through the remainder of the afternoon. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub advisory conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend. - A strong cold front crosses the region on Sunday with potential for degraded marine conditions both ahead of and behind the frontal passage. Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the NE Gulf Coast with ridging extending well to the NE into the Atlantic. A weak lee trough is noted across inland areas with stronger low pressure extending from MI southwest into the central Plains. Winds locally are mainly from the S and SW 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Benign boating conditions will persist today through Saturday with briefly stronger winds possible in the evening/overnight periods. Latest guidance continues to show a stronger period of SW flow Thursday night with winds ~15 kt in the Ches Bay and 15-20 kt offshore. A few gusts may approach or briefly exceed SCA thresholds during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Given the marginal winds/seas, will hold off on any headlines as the period in question is 36 hours out. A stronger system approaches the region by early Sunday with increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front. Some showers and/or storms are possible along and ahead of the front with winds becoming NW behind the boundary. Decent cold advection behind the front will lead to continued unsettled conditions until the gradient relaxes on Monday. && .CLIMATE... New record highs were set today, 4/15 for Richmond (93), Norfolk (91), and Salisbury (89). Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 93 (2026) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 91 (2026) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 89 (2026) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...AJB  305 FXUS62 KCAE 152342 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 742 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. A prolonged stretch of dry weather and above-normal temperatures is expected as a prominent upper level ridge and subtropical surface high remain in control through Saturday. Little day-to- day change is anticipated, with temperatures consistently rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees or more above climatological normal. Several daily records may be approached or tied, particularly on Friday and Saturday when highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. That said, guidance has trended slightly cooler with time, so while some daily records are in play, the April record of 96 in Columbia and Augusta appears unlikely. The combination of no rainfall and well above average temperatures will only worsen ongoing drought conditions across the region. Key Message 2: A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. An upper trough over the central CONUS is expected to push eastward through the weekend, breaking down the upper ridge that has been parked over the area. This trough is also forecast to push a cold front toward and through the forecast area as well. There remains limited chances for a few showers as the front passes, but the bigger impact looks to be increased fire danger once again, especially after the front passes. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range over the weekend and slightly lower on Monday. In addition to the near critical to critical RH values this weekend, breezy southwest winds on Saturday switch to west to northwest for Sunday as gusts reach 20-30 mph at times to end the weekend. Wind gusts diminish some for Monday as the front pushes further east of the area. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, as confidence continues to increase that cooler than average temps move into the forecast area to begin the work week. The current blended guidance shows an 80% or greater chance of highs topping out below average on Monday before a gradual warmup into to the middle part of the week. With the stretch of relatively warm temps, these temps might feel on the cool side. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR Conditions Continue.... Satellite imagery at sunset continues to show passing cirriform clouds across the FA. Expecting the high clouds to decrease in coverage as the night goes on, eventually clearing out on Thursday. No significant impacts to aviation are expected during the TAF period. Winds will be generally light tonight, increasing after daybreak and becoming breezy at times in the afternoon. Direction will be generally out of the southwest at the surface. With another hot day expected, SCT cumulus are modeled to develop Thursday afternoon but should not be result in any ceiling restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAQ AVIATION...7  674 FXUS64 KOUN 152342 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe thunderstorms are expected through late evening; severe storms are possible on Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general, are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest multi-cell and/or splitting storms. Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset, surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values (curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year, a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44. With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, as well. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thursday and Friday night will remain dry and breezy. The main concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to low-90's. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from KPNC to KSWO to east of KOKC/KOUN to east of KLAW/KSPS. These thunderstorms will continue to move to the east this evening with a threat for strong wind gusts, hail, and reduced visibility. In the wake of the storms, MVFR ceilings are likely across the eastern half of the area tonight. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be from the south/southeast. These winds will increase in speed by mid to late tomorrow morning. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 87 66 81 / 20 0 10 40 Hobart OK 54 90 64 88 / 10 0 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 61 92 66 87 / 30 0 10 20 Gage OK 47 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 56 85 66 82 / 20 0 0 60 Durant OK 65 86 66 82 / 70 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10  158 FXUS64 KFWD 152342 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm activity will continue across parts of western North Texas for the next few hours with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Three severe-warned supercells continue their trek east- northeastward across the northwestern parts of our forecast area this evening. 1-1.5" hail and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary hazards for the next 1-2 hours before these cells start to show signs of weakening as convective inhibition increases beyond sunset. Thunderstorm activity will either diminish or exit our forecast area to the north-northeast by 10-11PM tonight with isolated showers remaining a possibility beyond midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another cloudy and breezy start of the day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s early this afternoon. Recent radar imagery shows light rain/drizzle across portions of North and Central Texas. This is associated with a passing mid-level wave and a moist environment in the lower levels. For this afternoon and evening, we're monitoring two areas for showers/storms to develop. First, we will have our typical WAA showers and storms across Central Texas. This activity should remain sub-severe with occasional lightning as the main threat. The second area we're watching is our northwestern counties and along the Red River. More organized storms are expected to develop near/along a dryline to our west and move into portions of our area through the afternoon and evening. While coverage of severe storms is still uncertain, some of them will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is lower, but it can't completely be ruled out. Storms may merge into a cluster as they move eastward through North Texas this evening. The best potential for severe storms is expected to remain generally along/north of US-380, but we can't rule a storm or two farther south (near the I-20/I-30 corridor) that could remain strong and/or severe. Our confidence remains lower with the southward extend of this activity as our environment remains more stable. After this activity weakens and/or moves out of our area around midnight, quiet weather is expected the rest of the night with low clouds returning Thursday morning. Overall, quiet weather is expected tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 80s and clearing skies. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast continues to highlight the well anticipated cold front on Saturday followed by quiet weather through Sunday and low rain chances early next week. We will wrap up the week with fairly quiet and warm weather. The upper level trough responsible to push the surface cold front on Saturday will approach the Four Corners with the surface dryline staying far west of our area. We should remain mostly dry but surface winds will increase during the day. The best lift for organized storms is expected to remain to our northwest towards Oklahoma. Outside of the windy conditions, highs will climb into the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The cold front is still expected to arrive to North Texas late Friday night into Saturday morning with showers and storms developing mainly behind the boundary on Saturday. A cooldown will follow as well with breezy northerly winds continue all day Saturday. This will keep temperatures in the 60s during the day and overnight lows in the 40s Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler weather and dry weather will persist on Sunday, but we could see rain chances coming back to the region early next week. A few upper level disturbances are forecast to swing by the southern Plains and could bring some scattered activity through at least mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 We are monitoring three severe-warned supercells west of the Metroplex that will continue trekking east-northeastward over the next few hours. Tracking the southern cell puts it in central/southern Denton County ~0200-0215Z this evening (if it sustains). High-resolution guidance continues to favor a weakening in this activity in the next 1 to 1.5 hours with both the nocturnal increase in convective inhibition and the interaction with an environment marked by widespread cloud cover all day today. Thus, we will keep a VCTS group for the Metroplex TAFs from 01Z-04Z this evening, with the best potential for nearing TSRA at KAFW and KDFW. Some scattered shower activity has also started developing across the western part of the Metroplex in the last 30 minutes. Otherwise, breezy south winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts at times will prevail through much of the TAF period. MVFR cigs will return to North and Central Texas Thursday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested along and north of the I-20/I-30 corridor and west of I-35 through the evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 87 67 85 / 30 10 10 10 Waco 67 84 67 86 / 30 0 0 0 Paris 65 82 65 82 / 60 10 10 10 Denton 64 87 66 83 / 40 10 10 10 McKinney 66 85 67 83 / 40 10 10 10 Dallas 68 87 67 85 / 30 0 0 10 Terrell 66 84 67 84 / 40 10 0 10 Corsicana 68 86 68 88 / 40 0 0 0 Temple 67 86 67 88 / 30 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 88 65 85 / 20 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Langfeld  667 FXUS61 KBTV 152342 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes, the severe threat for tomorrow remains relatively the same. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. A few showers continue through tonight. 2. Rounds of showers tomorrow with heightened thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont. 3. Rainy and windy weather expected for the latter half of the weekend as another frontal system impacts the region. Mountain snow possible late Sunday into Sunday night with a cold frontal passage. 4. Much colder but dry to start next week, though trending warmer with chances of rain by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The stalled boundary will remain across the region through tonight, helping lead to a few rounds of showers. Another MCS will develop across the Great Lakes this evening and progress eastward tonight. The convective elements look to mostly stay to the south and they should be elevated by the time they approach. The stratiform precip on the northern extent looks to pass through, though a brief convective shower could reach far southern areas. Overall, a couple tenths of an inch of rain are expected for southern areas with decreasing amounts farther north. Areas north of the boundary like the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will likely continue to see cool temperatures in the 50s and upper 40s and areas of mist and drizzle through tonight. Patchy fog formation is possible anywhere tonight due to light winds and abundant moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mostly dry period exists tomorrow morning after the overnight MCS moves out. An area of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary during the afternoon and evening, bringing multiple rounds of showers. The front will become a warm front during the morning and push north. South of the front, there should be areas of clearing and temperatures should rise into the 70s to near 80. With dew points expected to rise to around 60 and with somewhat steep lapse rates, around or slightly over 1,000 J of CAPE looks to develop down there. However, the low looks to track south of the international border so the front does not look to pass all the way north of the region. North of the boundary, it will be a completely different story. There will be rounds of synoptically forced showers, some lower cloud cover, additional convective blowoff and notably cooler temperatures. Therefore, any instability that forms there looks to be minimal. All areas should see strong dynamics, with HREF mean 0-6 KM shear between 45-60 KTs, 0-1 km SRH between 75-150 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM SRH between 150-250 m2/s2. Due to the favorable ingredients, isolated to scattered severe storms are possible across southern Vermont. The main threat would be damaging winds, though large hail is possible as well. Due to the relatively fast motion of the storms, flash flooding is not expected. Compared to yesterday, the dynamics look slightly better and the warm sector looks to make its way a little farther north, but the exact details and placement of the front remain uncertain. The airmass on the backside of the low is warm so temperatures remain well above climatological normals heading into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Temperatures will warm on a 50+ kt 850 mb jet ahead of the front, allowing highs to rise into the 60s and 70s. Efficient mixing will bring windy conditions late Saturday afternoon into the evening as the core of the jet moves overhead. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely, with locally higher gusts possible in the St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys due to channel and perhaps along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. The cold front moves through Saturday night into early Sunday, so expect we'll have yet another non-diurnal temperature range, with temperatures likely rising or holding steady overnight (especially from the Champlain Valley eastward), then falling or holding steady on Sunday under strong cold air advection (especially over northern NY). Winds will remain gusty, first from the S/SW, turning toward the W/NW after the frontal passage. Showers will come to a quick end from west to east Sunday evening/night as much drier air follows the front; PWATs will only drop to 0.25 or less. Hence, while we expect anticipate temperatures to fall below freezing Sunday night (20s to around 30F by daybreak Monday morning), little to no snow accumulation is expected, particularly below summit levels. KEY MESSAGE 4: Canadian high pressure will settle over the region for the start of the work week. This will be a dry but colder airmass; highs on Monday could well struggle to get into the 40s in the higher terrain, with the wider valleys remaining in the low to mid 40s. Winds will be brisk out of the north/northwest, but we should see at least some sunshine, especially by afternoon. The ridge starts to shift east Monday night into Tuesday, so temperatures should warm 5-10 degrees. Model consensus deviates significantly from there onward, specifically with the strength/placement of an incoming upper trough. Still, do anticipate at least some increasing precipitation chances as moisture returns northward along the back side of the departing ridge, though the details are very uncertain at this point. Given the uncertainty, have not deviated from WPC's forecast from Monday onward. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Another night of changeable conditions is expected as winds trend light and variable with a stationary boundary just to our south. Low clouds are lifting north to the international border as the boundary is edging north as low pressure is moving northeast over the Great Lakes, just scattering at KPBG and KBTV just now. Convection is developing to our southwest tied to the area of low pressure. The system will skirt south of the region, but rain could impact KRUT about 03z-07z with visibility briefly dipping to 2-4SM and/or lowering ceilings. It's passage will likely bring the region of lower clouds and visibilities back southwards. So focused prevailing 300-800 ft ceilings over KEFK, KSLK, and KMSS, and then once the system starts to track closer and then away, gradually step IFR back into KPBG and KBTV. Fog will be likely again tonight, but visibility reductions are not expected to be quite as low. Still, intervals of visibilities less than 1-4SM could develop at each terminal through about 13-14z. Similar to today, south winds will develop in the morning resulting in improving aviation conditions. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will progress east and approach the St. Lawrence Valley about 15-16z Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Hastings/Myskowski AVIATION...Haynes  324 FXUS62 KJAX 152343 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Near Record Warmth This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values Inland Each Day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday - Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions && .UPDATE... Mild conditions this evening and exceptionally quiet weather. Primary concerns tonight will be the predawn fog development, which should be patchy and occasionally dense. There is higher chance for restricted visibility in areas around Gainesville as smoke from a nearby wildfire on SR-26 generates smoke which could mix with fog around day break Thursday. We will monitor for any superfog potential through the night in those areas. Otherwise, low temperatures will favor readings in the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F - Elevated wildfire risk Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues with stacked ridging over the region. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. Near record highs will be possible across inland locations this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds late tonight will prompt patchy inland fog development over portions of NE FL and SE GA, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-75. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday Warm and dry weather conditions will persist through the end of the week as high pressure extending over the region continues to dominate the weather pattern. High temperatures for the end of the week will reach up into the lower 90s and potentially reach record levels. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Daily patchy to dense fog developments are expected to form during the overnight and early morning hours each day, with a potential for very dense "super fog" to form in the vicinity of smoke and fires. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day. A predominantly dry cold front will move through the forecast area by the beginning of next week, with only a slight chance for showers occurring on Sunday. Onshore flow will be in place before midweek resulting in breezy onshore winds with minimal chances for diurnal isolated precipitation over northeast Florida. Initially above average max temps will drop down to be near and below the seasonal average next week, following the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Predominant VFR conditions are expected through the period, though patchy fog and smoke from nearby wildfire (KGNV) may lead to temporary obscuration through the overnight hours. Easterly winds will ease toward calm through the evening hours, become south- southwesterly around 5 knots Thursday morning 13z/15z and then shift to east-southeasterly during the afternoon hours with the Atlantic sea breeze push. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the the weekend, with the flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. A mostly dry frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with only a few showers and storms. A surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions with the potential for Gale force gusts. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954 April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 63 80 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  364 FXUS63 KGID 152345 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing spotty showers and weak thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of the daytime heating this evening. - Widespread critical fire weather expected on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area for the afternoon through late evening hours. - Strong northerly winds (peak gusts around 40-45 MPH) are likely on Friday behind a cold front. - Friday's cold front will bring seasonably cold air in for the weekend. However, with such a mild late winter/early spring and fast start to the growing season, will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM because of near or slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 It's been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don't expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in only the strongest of cores. Models haven't really been handling this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S. Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F. Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time. Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by. Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme SE zones, but this could be generous. Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn't overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze isn't until last week of April or first week of May for all but our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3 weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention to the cold temperatures. The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Cloud cover from a lingering cluster of showers/storms off to the ESE of KGRI is keeping some mid-level clouds around to start off...with skies then clearing off for much of the remainder of this period. Winds are on the variable side early this evening, but are expected to turn south-southwesterly and remain that way through the rest of the period. Thursday afternoon, wind gusts near/exceeding 30 MPH are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Truly appreciable rain has been hard to come by this spring, and the near-term trends don't look any better. As a result, and because spring green- up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for more fire weather concerns. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Critical fire weather conditions will return in earnest as a surface low pressure system deepens to our west and southerly winds increase to solidly- breezy levels. Expect commonly sustained winds around 20 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent - lowest W of Hwy 281. As a result, a Red Flag Warnings has been issued for Thursday afternoon through late evening for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that diurnal RH improvement during the evening will be quite a bit slower than usual. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Thies  657 FXUS61 KRNK 152345 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation Update. Lowered the dewpoints to be more in line with the deeper mixing, otherwise no changes to the forecast. We set record high temperatures at 4 out of our 5 climate stations Wednesday. Record Event Report (RER) has been sent. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. 2. Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. 3. Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with some records possible. High pressure over the southeast U.S. will start to drop southeast Thursday as an upper trough shifts into the lower Great Lakes. Even with this shift, temps will be warmer than normal and potentially close to record highs. Looking to stay above normal despite this shortwave moving across as the surface high stays over the southeast and keeps the flow out of the west/southwest into Saturday. See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: Weak front brings chance of showers Thu night, with better chance Sat night into Sunday with a stronger front but still overall rainfall amounts will be low. With the shortwave Thu night into Friday appears models keep the probability of measurable rainfall greatest along and west of the Appalachian Divide, so areas east of the Alleghanys are likely to see light showers/sprinkles and any amount of rain will be less than a tenth of an inch at best. The front Sat night into Sunday will be more robust but even that will be stretched out in more a linear fashion and quick moving which will limit rainfall amounts to under a tenth of an inch for most, possibly up to a quarter inch in WV and far SW VA if any convection happens. Key Message 3: Cooler/dry early next week, then warming again by midweek. Greater relief from the heat looks to come after the frontal passage, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The mountains, especially in southeast WV, will see low temperatures in the 30s once again. Probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees F or less between 35% to 45% for the southeast WV mountains Monday and Tuesday mornings. By midweek high pressure moves offshore with the flow turning more southwest again providing warmer than normal temperatures. Looking further out, teleconnection forecasts suggest pattern flip by the end of the month, with potential for much needed rainfall to close out April. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period, with west/southwest winds at around 5-10 knots... gusty during the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night- Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains before improving. The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through with a better chance of showers and potential for sub- VFR cigs/vsby, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. WInds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Some rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. These aforementioned conditions will escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next couple of days: Wednesday: 4 of the 5 stations set record highs today. Temperatures thru 5PM: ROA/91, DAN/91, LYH/90, BCB/85, BLF/81. Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954 Thursday: Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH/WP AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...AS/WP CLIMATE...PW/SH/PM  004 FXUS63 KLOT 152346 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional period of showers and thunderstorms expected this evening. Some could be strong and produce heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. - A brief break in the pattern is expected late Thursday into the day on Friday before another storm system arrives Friday evening into early Saturday. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Thursday... The primary weather focus in the near continues to revolve around the expectation for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly this evening. A recent surface analysis indicates that an area of low pressure resides across southeastern NE, with an associated surface cold front extending south-southwestward into the TX Panhandle. While our area has remained cloudy, increased insolation west of the area in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary continues to destabilize the very moist (dew points in the low to mid 60s) low-level prefrontal airmass across MO into south central IA. This will set the stage for additional thunderstorm development mid to late this afternoon west of our area as increased forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level impulse ejecting into the Mid-Missouri Valley overspreads the frontal boundary. After storms onset, a gradual upward growth into an MCS is anticipated this evening as they shift eastward across the Mississippi river. It appears the primary severe weather threat with these storms will be west of our area, with storms likely to be on a weakening trend as they progress eastward across northern IL during the mid to late evening hours. Nevertheless, a continued favorable kinematic environment overhead may continue to support a threat for localized strong wind gusts with the weakening line of storms. Heavy rainfall is expected to accompany these storms through the evening, and this does continue to add concerns for possible hydro concerns tonight. However, it appears the heaviest rain rates may remain more progressive with the moving line of storms tonight. Accordingly, it appears the threat for significant flash flooding is lower than previously thought. Nevertheless, areas across far northern IL that received heavy rainfall last night will be most at risk for additional flooding concerns., With this in mind, we have opted to hold onto the going flash flood watch for this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to become more widely scattered overnight tonight into Thursday as the main mid-level impulse shifts overhead. As an afternoon lake breeze develops and pushes inland across northeastern IL and northwestern IN Thursday afternoon in the wake of the surface low, this may act as a focus for additional isolated shower activity for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Outside of this, conditions will be drying out Thursday afternoon and evening. KJB Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Forecast concerns include... Scattered thunderstorms this evening. Possible wind shift to east/southeast behind storms. Mvfr cigs/periodic showers overnight through Thursday afternoon. Wind shift to northeast early Thursday afternoon. Current showers and a few thunderstorms over far northwest IL are expected to slowly increase in coverage over the next few hours and form a broken line and move across the rest of the area during the late evening hours and likely be weakening some as they move across the Chicago metro area. Current tempo timing seems on track for the Chicago terminals with perhaps a few showers prior to this activity. Additional showers are expected in the early overnight hours with additional showers possible from mid morning Thursday through early Thursday afternoon. South/southwest winds may gust as high as the mid 20kt range this evening with directions perhaps favoring more southerly for the next few hours then turning more to the southwest by mid evening. Confidence is low for wind directions behind the expected area of thunderstorms later this evening. Some of the most recent guidance turns winds southeasterly and opted for a 170 direction for now, but changes to winds can be expected with later forecasts and updates. Winds will turn more southwest by daybreak, westerly Thursday morning and then shift to the northeast as a lake breeze/front moves inland. Early Thursday afternoon timing looks good but specific timing will need some refinement as trends emerge. Mvfr cigs will be possible with any showers or thunderstorms this evening then prevailing mvfr cigs are expected to develop overnight and continue through early afternoon Thursday with some uncertainty for how fast cigs may lift during the afternoon. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010- INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  767 FXUS63 KGRR 152346 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 746 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday - Colder and Windy Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue Instability is slowly building this afternoon, with thunderstorms intensifying to our south in the more favorable environment. The currently warned storm in Indiana is expected to remain south of the area and with the ongoing stratiform rain, our afternoon chances for severe weather are low. A lull is expected during the late afternoon and early evening before the low level jet picks back up bringing another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots and MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be enough for some stronger to severe storms. Overall the primary concern tonight will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with lower chances for hail and winds. Risk for severe storms looks to taper off by 2am with lingering showers into Thursday morning. Instability will drop off overnight into Thursday morning limiting the lightning potential. As the upper level low approaches Thursday afternoon instability is expected to build. HREF mean surface based instability values around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 30 knots. Some stronger storms may develop with the best chances along and south of I-69, damaging winds and hail are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated spots up to 3 inches possible. Flooding concerns will continue with rivers expected to worsen. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Dry conditions return for Friday with highs in the 70s under a brief period of high pressure. Southwest flow ahead of a deep trough with a strong low level jet will feed warm, moist air into the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the cold front there could be a concern for strong to severe storms. The Day 4 outlook has shifted the 15 percent area further east likely due to the current trend for the front to move through during the early afternoon. - Colder and Windy Sunday Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures may peak in the upper 30s to 40s, however wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another forecast period full of impacts for aviation interests. We are starting the forecast period in a relative lull with VFR conditions. This will not last long as showers and storms over Wisconsin are steadily moving toward the area. These are expected to arrive at KMKG between 01-02z, and spread south and east thereafter. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected due to visibilities in rain and BR. Later in the night they will diminish in intensity a bit. KMKG and KGRR are likely to see lower ceilings and visibilities continue based on the track of the low. The other sites may see a brief reprieve to VFR. Additional showers and a few storms will move in Thursday morning for a few hours. The threat of thunder will be lower compared to tonight. This will gradually diminish Thursday afternoon, with lower clouds holding on to MVFR conditions for the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog continues to impact the nearshore waters, a Marine Dense Fog advisory is in effect through tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight before transitioning to mainly showers. Winds will shift to the northwest Thursday but remain below Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Friday dry conditions are expected with southerly winds building throughout the day into Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms will also be possible Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries. Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches. Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  170 FXUS63 KFGF 152346 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average highs Thursday afternoon with near critical fire weather. - A narrow swath of snow is expected Thursday night/Friday morning but the exact location and ceiling of amounts remains uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Current split flow aloft begins to transition to SW flow through Thursday afternoon as a PNW trough deepens and moves east into the northern plains by Friday evening. Along with this troughing will be preceding seasonally strong thermal ridging (>98th percentile Thursday evening) which will push Thursday high temps to near records but coming up a few degrees short for most. This also brings near critical fire danger due to minimum RH's of 25 to 30 though winds less than 30 mph will temper the threat, more on this below. Behind the heat on Thursday comes a strong cold front with temps crashing from the 70s/80s to 30s/40s for Friday bringing a chance for snow to the area. Ridging returns for the weekend with highs slowly rebounding by Sunday into the 40s for all with 50s/60s likely for next week. - Thursday Heat/Fire Weather With anomalously strong thermal ridging across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota up into the Red Lakes expect the warmest day of the year so far. Highs will widely reach from 70 to 80 from Valley City to the Red Lakes and points south. A few may top 80 but that only looks to be about a 10% chance from Lisbon to Wadena and south. With the warm temps RH will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range (1pm to 8pm) but winds are only expected to be southerly at 20kts gusting 30kts at the worst during these low RH periods (noon to 5pm) meaning there is a short 4-5 hour temporal overlap and even smaller spatial overlap (really just the southern Red River Valley). Overall this keeps us short of Red Flag Criteria but to enough support near critical messaging. HDWI does have the area of concern reaching the 90th percentile and and ERC in the mid 20s. Aberdeen to our south will have a Red Flag Warning in effect for tomorrow with conditions becoming more of the near critical variety in our far south. Wouldn't rule out sites meeting Red Flag conditions for a short duration but at this point a RFW does not seem warranted with an SPS in effect for the MN counties of concern. Still recommend caution if burning. - Snow chances Later in the day on Thursday the troughing moves more directly overhead with decent FGEN from 850-700mb and favorable temperature profiles for snow. Using lessons learned from this winter and looking at the EC AIFS ens the favored corridor for any accumulating snow will be from south central ND into the northern Red River Valley and far northwest MN. Overall there is a 50% chance for a quarter inch and 30% for a half inch or more which certainly supports more than nuisance amounts of snow. Guidance suites vary significantly on whether they keep it snow vs rain though. HREF snow probs are as high as 50% for a narrow 30-50 mile wide swath of 3 or more inches, whereas the NBM and REFS have barely a 20% chance for even 1 inch. Which is right you may ask? Looking at the WPC super ensemble there are of outliers that of course have 4" or more (very low probability) but the majority at any given point are 0-2" with most likely getting only a few tenths (narrow band of heavy snow with light snow on either side). Therefore there is still considerable uncertainty on where the band set up and even how much of it falls as snow but there is high confidence a band of 0.2 to 0.4" of QPF will fall somewhere. This brings at least a 30% chance for winter impacts with the potential for a winter weather advisory to be warranted by sometime tomorrow. Later on in the period there is nothing that immediately grabs the attention for potential hazards but given the uncertainty that spring patterns can bring, with a range of hazards possible, it is unlikely to be truly quiet for an extended period of time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A fairly thick layer of high clouds moving through northeastern ND, and some mid level cumulus from KBJI down to southeast of KFAR. A few showers developing along the trough axis north of KTVF but should stay out of the way of our airports. Some variations in mid and high clouds, but conditions should stay VFR throughout the period. A few model runs try and develop some fog along the stalling trough axis later tonight, but looking at the whole ensemble there is a 20 percent chance or less of any vis below 1/2 mile. Winds will be the main aviation impact, as a cold front moves down towards the trough axis currently over the central forecast area and then stalls out tonight. The MN airports and KFAR will see some southerly or southwesterly winds as the boundary wobbles nearby, while KGFK and KDVL will be mostly northwesterly shifting to the northeast with gusts above 25 kts tomorrow afternoon. Front should eventually make it down to KFAR and KTVF by the tail end of the TAF period tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT  768 FXUS64 KMRX 152347 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 747 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a Fire Danger Statement, and will reevaluate the need for that tomorrow morning after coordination with forestry. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quarter inch in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability (~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds likely to drop to near calm once more tonight, resume diurnal winds and a few gusts again during peak mixing hours tomorrow. Winds aloft near but below LLWS criteria overnight. Very low chance for a rain shower near the terminals post 18z tomorrow, left out of TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 61 / 0 0 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 84 60 / 0 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 58 84 58 / 0 0 30 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 58 / 0 0 10 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...Wellington  267 FXUS61 KPBZ 152348 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of Pittsburgh with much lesser chance farther south. Damaging wind is the main threat although large hail and a tornado are possible. Training thunderstorms may pose a localized flooding threat. 2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday. 3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of early morning convection, scattered cloud coverage remains with increasing southwest surface flow. Said convection has left an outflow boundary slowly sagging south past the Pittsburgh metro as of mid-morning. As southwest flow strengthens into this afternoon, expect that that boundary likely gets pushed back to the north while the ambient environment recovers markedly during the daylight hours. Dew points are not much higher to the south, so don't expect strong moisture advection today with dew points likely not moving much from their upper 50s/low 60s this morning. The axis of highest deep layer moisture content, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening. Along with some measure of surface heating into the low 80s, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HREF means. High-end potential, contingent on more clearing, exists to reach north of 2000 J/kg north of Pittsburgh, and trends may be pointing in this direction with HREF cloud coverage in the 50-70% range and actual observations trending much less. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6 km values. The highest confidence storm initiation likely occurs to our west after 3pm along and ahead of a cluster pushing through the lower Great Lakes region, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity spreading east. There could also be initiation along the aforementioned outflow boundary and other remnant boundaries from convection yesterday. As convective temperature of 75F is met this afternoon, that raises a conditional low confidence/higher severity earlier initiation along the remnant boundaries that could pose an all hazards risk with brief discrete mode before quickly growing upscale; better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two accompanies this north of Pittsburgh where low-level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. What may inhibit this is a persistent warm layer on latest PIT ACARS soundings from 700-800 mb that would need stronger forcing and repeated updraft attempts to erode. The later storm mode favors quickly congealing segments/bows as noted by several recent HRRR/RRFS runs bringing a damaging wind threat. The unchanged SPC day 1 outlook remains in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) down to about I-70. With deep layer mean flow nearly due westerly and initiation along boundaries oriented roughly west-east, training of storms is possible that could lead to flash flooding. This, again, is most likely north of Pittsburgh in the high PWAT axis. HREF max 1 hour QPF reaches north of 1" for a few consecutive hours later tonight suggesting the threat for training storms dumping inch per hour rates. While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary across the region. Coverage may be more widespread with some better mid-level forcing just downstream of a shortwave riding through the Great Lakes, but the environment it has to work with looks less potent. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Poor low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown. A southern stream shortwave dipping into the Tennessee Valley will finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. We should get a break from the daily convective cycle as brief shortwave ridging traverses overhead. It'll be short lived though before one last round of strong to severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. While details remain fuzzy, this feature should provide the strongest lift we've seen in the past week, so favorable timing would point toward a heightened severe threat. Timing of the front is still uncertain and dependent on tilt and progression of the mid-level wave with AI models suggesting late afternoon and some ensemble clusters as late as after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3... An anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which, assuming good mixing and lesser cloud coverage, would top out MaxTs in the low 80s. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances. This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today. Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower (~50%). There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days. Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but this may be a bit overdone with higher probability for more areawide cloud cover and showers and storms which may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front, but timing of the front will dictate how high temperatures get. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary. Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will be notable to all with this being the first warm up of the year. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The primary round of thunderstorms, some of which are strong to severe, is moving through the area north of PIT to start the 00Z TAF period. This wave of convection should move out of the area to the east by the 03Z-06Z timeframe, after which only a few isolated lingering showers will be possible (still primarily north of PIT). VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. After a lull in activity overnight (aside from a few isolated showers and storms possible towards sunrise at FKL), another line of convection is forecast to move through the area along a cold front in the 18Z-00Z timeframe Thursday. A wind shift to westerly will occur behind that line of convection with gusts to around 25 knots continuing. Outlook... Friday should be mostly dry following Thursday evening's weak frontal passage. However, another low pressure system and a stronger cold front approach the area on Saturday, returning shower and thunderstorm chances (and associated restrictions) to the region through the weekend. Dry weather and VFR conditions are then favored as we head into early next week with a pattern shift following the weekend cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB/CL AVIATION...Cermak  037 FXUS63 KUNR 152350 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 550 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for Thursday. - Cold front moves through later Thursday, bringing rain/snow behind it. - Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over southeastern SD, with a weak surface trough stretching from northwest SD down into eastern Wyoming. Upper air analysis depicts shortwave over NE/KS region, upper low over the PAC NW, with near west/east flow over the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 60s to low 70s, with light winds. Recent satellite images show mid/high clouds expanding into the forecast area from the west. Elevated to near-critical fire weather parameters continue this afternoon, as warm and dry conditions persist. Thursday will see some areas reach critical fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front, as temperatures reach into the 70s and low 80s, with winds 15 to 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Cold front moves through from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into the evening, bringing gusty northwest winds and chances for rain/snow through mid-day Friday. Any accumulating snow amounts will be tricky given the time of year, and temperatures hanging near freezing for some areas. Highest potential for accumulating snowfall is expected in parts of northeastern Wyoming into the central and northern Black Hills, where NBM probability of 2" or more ranges between 30 to 70 percent. Widespread light QPF is expected, with the highest ranges (0.05" - 0.4") stretching from northeastern WY into northwestern SD. Current model runs show a small potential for low end Winter Weather Advisory headline for some areas Thursday night, but again chances are small. Main precipitation event moves out mid-day Friday, but some light precipitation could linger for some areas (generally Black Hills into southwest SD) into Saturday. After this system moves through, mostly dry conditions return late Saturday through middle of next week. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS through the weekend as well, resulting in a warming trend back to 10-20F above normal. Longer range models point to the potential for more active weather the latter half of next week, but will have to wait and see how model agreement works out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 535 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through tonight. A cold front will move in Thursday, affecting KGCC first (15Z) then KRAP (21Z). Winds will be gusty through tomorrow and shift throughout the day before landing NNW behind the front. MVFR conditions may develop at KGCC owing to rain/snow behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Timing of the cold front as well as mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high- based showers may complicate things a bit by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near- critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ317. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Schweigert FIRE WEATHER...Dye  430 FXUS65 KTFX 152351 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 551 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for lower elevation rain/isolated thunder and mountain snow increases this afternoon and evening. - A cold front will transition rain to snow, bringing cold temperatures Thursday and a slight chance for snow squalls along I-90 tonight. - Isolated to scattered snow showers continue Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. - A warming trend and drier conditions trending for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: With the upper level trough translating east across the Western U.S., isolated lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers have developed. Precipitation will continue to develop, becoming scattered ahead of the front. Weak instability this afternoon poses an isolated risk for weak thunderstorms. Gusty winds across the Madison River and Beaverhead County valleys also increases ahead of the front as winds increases aloft. The cold front passage later today will bring widespread precipitation across the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front combined with weak instability brings a slight risk for snow squalls along and south of the I-90 corridor this evening. The main impacts will be sudden reductions in visibility and minor, slushy accumulations on roads. Snow levels dropping behind the front will help transition rain to snow widespread across the region late tonight and into Thursday morning. Chilly temperatures during the day Thursday will keep lingering snow showers throughout the day, mainly in Southwest MT with more isolated snow showers across North-Central MT. Increasing winds aloft wrapping around the cold upper-level low along the Hi-line Thursday will also bring breezy to gusty winds to North-Central MT. -Wilson On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds in Southwest MT Through the Rest of the Day: Gusty winds continue this afternoon in the Madison and Beaverhead County Valleys. The threat for high winds remain marginal, with best chances being with a shower/thunderstorm or along the frontal passage. Therefore, no changes were made to the current High Wind Warning. Snow Through Thursday: Warmer pavement temperatures are currently limiting snow accumulations to above pass level. The cold front will help lower temperatures, with moderate to heavy snow along the front helping crash pavement temperatures to freezing. The main changes to the forecast was upgrading the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning and downgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for the Gallatin County Valley. One uncertainty lies in the amount of QPF this system produces, as probabilities have down trended recently in model runs. Though synoptic nudges like the strong cold advection and aloft and frontogenesis along the front gave enough confidence to upgrade the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning. The main impacts will be along Highway 191 south of the Gallatin Gateway to West Yellowstone. Timing of the front being at night is ideal for moderate to heavy snow along the frontal passage to crash road temperatures in the Gallatin Valley quickly. However, there wasn't a high enough confidence in high moisture amounts to produce a broader 6-7" of snow for a Winter Storm Warning. There is a slight chance for those amounts still, especially areas near the higher terrain that could get some upslope enhancement. A tight snow gradient will likely develop in the valley/the city of Bozeman as a result. The Madison River Valley could see minor slushy snow accumulations Thursday, so they were added to the Winter Weather Advisories as well. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 16/00Z TAF Period A Pacific trough and attendant cold front will move through the forecast area in a northwest to southeast fashion through around 16/06Z, bringing areas of rain/snow showers, variable winds, and eventually a northerly wind shift. MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions will become more expansive tonight into Thursday due to areas of snow and lowering stratus. The worst conditions will be for areas near the north/northwesterly aspects of terrain. Cold north/northwesterly flow aloft will then maintain scattered to numerous snow shower activity and intermittent degraded flight categories for remainder of Thursday and even into Friday. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 27 39 22 45 / 80 50 30 50 CTB 19 32 16 44 / 40 40 20 20 HLN 27 42 25 45 / 90 60 30 70 BZN 25 40 19 43 / 100 80 40 70 WYS 24 33 12 36 / 100 100 70 70 DLN 25 38 19 42 / 90 80 20 30 HVR 25 36 17 44 / 90 30 20 10 LWT 26 38 18 41 / 90 50 20 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park Region. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  664 FXUS62 KTBW 152352 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .UPDATE... Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure ridging into the area kept warm and stable conditions in place today, with temperatures running above normal under sunny skies. This pattern will hold through the upcoming weekend, with temperatures continuing to trend warmer and rain chances holding near zero. Similar to the last couple of nights, any fog chances tonight appear to be very minimal. The forecast looks on track, and no significant changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. East and southeast flow will turn onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong ridging over the area will keep our winds out of an easterly direction through Saturday. Winds will be little higher today and tomorrow around 10 to 15 knots. These winds will calm down for Thursday through Saturday and sit around 5 to 10 knots. A front will start to approach on Sunday that will start to shifts winds to the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 87 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 63 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming PREVIOUS MARINE...Shiveley  308 FXUS62 KTAE 152352 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - There is a medium (60%) chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions over our marine zones for Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong upper level ridging will prevail into the weekend. Warming temperatures are expected area wide with highs in the low 90s likely across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia along I-75. Afternoon highs are about 10 degrees above normal however, we are not in record territory. Light south/southwesterly winds will allow for high humidity values in the early morning hours which will contribute to fog, provided that the winds go calm during the overnight hours. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s. There are no rain chances in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level low, well north of the Great Lakes, will have an associated cold front that will sweep across the Southeast late this weekend. The forcing mechanisms will be far removed from us, keeping us mostly dry as the front passes. There is a less than 20% chance for precipitation with this front. The main story is behind the front, the air mass will be dry and winds have the potential to increase. Although temperatures will return to the upper 70s and low 80s, the antecedent dry conditions will continue/increase the risk for fire danger heading into the start of the work week. Overnight low temperatures behind the front will be in the low 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will remain for across the region into this evening along with winds diminishing after sunset. For early Thursday morning, patchy to areas of fog will bring prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP and expanding eastward to near the TLH and DHN terminals. Fog is expected to lift by mid morning across all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure will dominate the region into the weekend with light to gentle (generally) southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, there is about a 60% chance for Advisory level winds Sunday night into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Moderate to high dispersions can be expected for the next few afternoons. Transport winds around 10 mph from the southwest can be expected during the afternoon hours with mixing heights increasing each afternoon above 6500 feet. Despite the light winds, antecedent dry conditions will continue the elevated fire weather concerns heading into the weekend. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front falls to critical values in the low 20s percentage, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  704 FXUS66 KMFR 152353 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 453 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, though widepsread terrain obscurations are occurring. A front is currently passing through the region bringing periods of MVFR conditions in cig/vsbys along with widespread gusty winds. Showers will continue overnight, focused along and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and this should limit any fog development overnight. However, if there is enough clearing, areas of LIFR conditions could develop in West Side Valleys. The more likely scenario is a low end VFR/MVFR stratus deck lingers over the West Side into Thursday morning. Expect conditions to lift to VFR by Thursday afternoon with a round of gusty north to northwest winds developing area wide. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1253 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ DISCUSSION...The front is passing through the area this afternoon, with rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. Steady rain will taper off as the front passes to the south and east later today, with showers continuing overnight, and potentially some isolated showers persisting into Thursday morning along the coast and the northern Cascades. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there's some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A passing front will continue to bring breezy winds and steep seas across all waters through tomorrow afternoon. Isolated showers are possible tonight through tomorrow morning, and there could be an embedded thunderstorm tonight (20%-25%) around and north/northwest of Cape Blanco. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Cape Blanco tonight. Conditions improve late Thursday afternoon; however, a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  757 FXUS64 KOHX 152354 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds over the state this evening will increase in coverage into Thursday morning, ahead of a round of showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow. No changes to the forecast. Enjoy this wonderful, warm evening! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure remains the dominant feature affecting Middle Tennessee's weather today, both at the surface and aloft. So we'll enjoy one more day of this stable and relatively dry air mass before the next active weather system brings some much-needed (but not nearly enough) rainfall to the mid state. A weak surface boundary currently situated to the northwest of Middle Tennessee will ease its way into the region later tonight and Thursday morning, so we can expect some late night and early morning showers. Temperatures tomorrow will still be quite warm, although not as warm as today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave looks to push into Land-between-the-Lakes shortly after 00Z Thursday evening, and a convective cluster may accompany the shortwave. The HRRR has at times shown some storms affecting northwest portions of Middle Tennessee during the evening, hence the marginal risk from the SPC. While we cannot completely rule out a wind and hail threat, the risk of severe storms is very low during the early evening. And even that threat will diminish considerably as we lose our daytime heating. QPF values for tomorrow and tomorrow night remain underwhelming; most locations can expect no more than 1/4", although a few spots could see up to 1/2". Either way, it's not nearly enough to make up the growing rainfall deficit. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The atmospheric models continue to depict the bulk of the convective activity Saturday and Saturday evening as post-frontal, so that's going to limit the severe potential. Current QPF values resulting from Saturday's cold front are close to 1/2" area-wide, which will certainly be welcome, but won't do much to alleviate our drought conditions. The primary impact from Saturday's cold front will be the significant drop in temperatures on the other side. Indeed, high temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 60s most areas, and Monday morning's low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s most areas. After that, look for a gradual warming trend throughout next week, with no appreciable rain chances until Thursday night or Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours. A batch of showers with borderline MVFR cigs will move in near daybreak ahead of a of front that may bring additional showers and storms to all terminals Thursday afternoon. High-res models are in disagreement at this time with thunderstorm coverage, so PROB30 groups have been added to the taf to capture this uncertainty. Outside of shower/storm activity, SSW winds will remain breezy overnight with sustained speeds around 10 kts. Speeds will increase after 15Z with gusts up to 25 kts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 83 61 88 / 10 70 40 20 Clarksville 65 81 61 88 / 30 80 40 20 Crossville 59 79 57 82 / 0 60 60 10 Columbia 64 82 60 88 / 10 60 40 10 Cookeville 61 79 58 83 / 0 70 60 10 Jamestown 59 80 56 83 / 0 60 60 10 Lawrenceburg 62 82 60 87 / 0 50 40 10 Murfreesboro 63 82 59 88 / 0 70 50 10 Waverly 65 80 61 88 / 30 70 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Holley SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett  765 FXUS63 KMKX 152354 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will move across the area this evening posing a risk of hail to the size of quarters, wind gusts to 60mph and perhaps a tornado or two. This activity has moved into southwestern WI and should exit to the east by 11 PM. Areas along the WI/IL border and southeastern WI have the best chances to see a severe storm. - Heavy rainfall this evening into the overnight hours will maintain a risk for flash flooding into Thursday morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of southern Wisconsin. - Another round of heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A messy mesoscale setup this evening as showers and thunderstorms continue to expand across the region. Airmass recovery has been slow, but good enough to slip into southern WI, mainly along/south of I-94 corridor. Best dewpoints are along/south of the state line and a few supercells have developed over the past hour or so. Closely monitoring the behavior of these storms as they approach and cross the state line, where one of a few nebulous boundaries reside. The circulation with the supercell just south of Green county has maintained its character as it has crossed the state line, which gives at least some indication that there is a boundary in far southern WI. For much of the mid/late afternoon, we have observed scattered to numerous showers and storms north of the boundary, which has maintained low 60s dewpoints, but have kept temperatures largely in the low/mid 60s, with the exception of far southeastern WI where temperatures have poked into the 70s. A slightly better thermo environment in far southeastern WI is worth noting as we could see an uptick in intensity as activity moves to the east. Unlike the past few days, this set up is a bit more uncertain and subtle mesoscale changes will be the focus to learn if storms are slightly elevated or becoming more rooted to the surface, which will open the door to an increased wind potential, along with the risk for a tornado or two. Heading into the overnight hours, we will remain moist and as the shortwave moves into the region additional areas/bands of showers and embedded storms will linger. Gagan && .SHORT TERM... Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through Thursday night: More thunderstorms are possible this evening as return flow is expected to advect appreciable SBCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg into southwest WI and up to the WI/IL border. Storms tonight may be a bit weaker than yesterday given skinnier CAPE profiles, but low level instability, effective shear around 40 knots, and some curvature in the hodographs will support another round of gusty winds and hail. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along the WI/IL border given the low level turning in the hodographs and low level instability, provided a low-topped supercell forms in the environment this afternoon. Storms will quickly grow upscale after sunset, leading to more widespread rain. Training thunderstorms may lead to more flash flooding tonight given the wealth of rain we've had this week. A Flood Watch is in effect from 4pm this afternoon to 7am Thursday for the expected rainfall tonight. A widespread 1 to 2 inches may fall, with locally higher amounts possible where any thunderstorms track. Storms largely move offshore tonight around midnight, with more scattered rain possible between midnight and 7am. Rain should then largely taper off Thursday morning, with dry conditions Thursday afternoon. A weak surface ridge will then move overhead Thursday night. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday through Wednesday: A strong cold front is expected to move through Friday afternoon and evening and is expected to lead to another round of severe weather. At this time the GFS depicts strong warm ahead of the front which will allow dew points in the 60s to return northward. Model soundings depict 40 knots of effective shear amid moderate instability of 2000 J/kg, with low level turning in the hodographs. This would support all modes of severe weather again for the area. At this time the SPC has included southwest and south central Wisconsin in an enhanced risk for severe weather. The cold front will then come crashing through Friday night into Saturday, and temperatures will dip into upper 40s to low 50s for the weekend. Saturday is expected to be cool and breezy, with breaks in the clouds late in the day. Sunday will feature similar conditions but will be a tad bit sunnier as a high pressure center moves overhead. Warmth is then expected to return next week Tuesday as a ridge builds over the central United States. The middle of next week then looks active again as a low pressure moves off of the lee of the Rockies. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern for this evening is another round of showers and storms. The severe risk is a bit more uncertain, but high enough to be concerned with localized damaging winds and hail. There is a small tornado risk. MVFR to brief IFR visibility is expected with heavy downpours of rain. Lightning risk will be highest this evening as storms move west to east and exit over the lake after 04 UTC. Heading into the overnight hours, showers and a few storms will persist in a scattered fashion, with visibility and ceilings lowering through the MVFR category. Prior to daybreak Thursday will be the best window of opportunity for IFR ceilings and visibility. Conditions will gradually improved during the day Thursday, with clearing expected in the mid to late afternoon. Gagan && .MARINE... Issued 251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A stationary front will remain parked over the middle third of the lake this afternoon, slowly sinking south to the southern end of the lake by noon Thursday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues until Thursday morning while this front lingers. Winds will remain southerly south of the front and modestly breezy, while winds north of the front will remain light and variable to northerly during this time. The front will then clear the lake Thursday afternoon and northerly winds will prevail over whole lake. Winds will become light and variable briefly Thursday night as a weak ridge passes over the lake, with winds then becoming southerly and breezy Friday ahead of low pressure of 29.6 inches approaching from the west. Gusty northwest winds then return following a cold front Friday night. Additional thunderstorms are forecast over the southern third of Lake Michigan this evening into tonight. A few storms could be severe with large hail being the primary concern. Additional storms are possible Friday into Saturday, with a few stronger storms possible. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7 AM Thursday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  939 FXUS64 KMAF 152354 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 653 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface observations show the dryline is near the Midland/Odessa area this afternoon and may push a bit further east before convection begins along it in the next few hours. Isolated storms will be seen across the eastern most counties of the CWA. This activity will move east and decay around or just after sunset this evening. A few storms may be severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Dry air and mainly clear skies behind the retreating dryline tonight will allow areas west of Midland to cool efficiently with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s. Thursday will be somewhat of a repeat to today, but with the dryline moving even further east, rain chances take a drop down even for the eastern reaches of the area. Highs end up above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday also sees dryline action across the eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon/late evening, but like Thursday, it should be fairly limited in coverage. Another upper low also approaches on Friday and will increase winds across southeast New Mexico and into portions of West Texas. Breezy conditions will persist for the day before decreasing that evening. A cold front moves through the area early Saturday morning and keep temperatures below normal for both Saturday and Sunday with many areas in the 60s and 70s. By Sunday, an upper level disturbance looks to cross the region and long range guidance is bringing in broad, but low (10-30%) rain chances. Confidence remains low on just how much rain areas will get. Temperatures gradually increase back to normal (upper 70s to low 80s) on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions and modest winds continue the next 24 hours. ISOLD SHRA/TS should remain outside of the vicinity of all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is still in place for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels combine with RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 57 90 65 91 / 0 10 10 0 Carlsbad 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 66 88 66 93 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 52 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 86 56 87 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 47 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0 Odessa 57 87 64 90 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 51 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  386 FXUS66 KHNX 152355 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 455 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level low continues to exit eastward and in its place, a weak ridge will take hold over the area. However, Thursday will have an inside slider cooling down the San Joaquin Valley and bringing winds to the Mojave Desert slopes and the desert floor. As such, a wind advisory will be in effect from 11am Thursday to 11am Friday. Ensemble guidance doesn't suggest any precipitation, but does suggest cooler temperatures. The northern part of the CWA will be at a 90 percent chance of exceeding 68 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 75 degrees. The southern part of the CWA will see 90 percent chance of exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 78 degrees. After Thursday, another ridge will take hold over the area. This is going to bring warm temperatures to the CWA through the weekend. On Sunday, the northern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance of meeting and exceeding 75 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 89 degrees. The southern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 80 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 90 degrees. This warm won't stick around forever. By Monday temperatures are going to fall to below normal once again as a closed low makes its way down. There is another chance for measurable precipitation and a small (5-10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. As of the current ensemble run, Northern San Joaquin valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" of rain and 10 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 0.4". The Southern portion of the valley also has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" but a 10 percent chance of 0.2". As Monday grows closer, confidence with the impacts of this next closed low is expected to increase. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gustings to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...BB weather.gov/hanford  888 FXUS66 KHNX 152356 CCA AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 455 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level low continues to exit eastward and in its place, a weak ridge will take hold over the area. However, Thursday will have an inside slider cooling down the San Joaquin Valley and bringing winds to the Mojave Desert slopes and the desert floor. As such, a wind advisory will be in effect from 11am Thursday to 11am Friday. Ensemble guidance doesn't suggest any precipitation, but does suggest cooler temperatures. The northern part of the CWA will be at a 90 percent chance of exceeding 68 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 75 degrees. The southern part of the CWA will see 90 percent chance of exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 78 degrees. After Thursday, another ridge will take hold over the area. This is going to bring warm temperatures to the CWA through the weekend. On Sunday, the northern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance of meeting and exceeding 75 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 89 degrees. The southern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 80 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 90 degrees. This warm won't stick around forever. By Monday temperatures are going to fall to below normal once again as a closed low makes its way down. There is another chance for measurable precipitation and a small (5-10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. As of the current ensemble run, Northern San Joaquin valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" of rain and 10 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 0.4". The Southern portion of the valley also has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" but a 10 percent chance of 0.2". As Monday grows closer, confidence with the impacts of this next closed low is expected to increase. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...BB weather.gov/hanford  768 FXUS64 KHUN 152356 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 656 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today. - There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. - Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Temperatures are rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s at this hour as south-southwest winds increase to 8-12kt, with gusts of 15-20kt. High temperatures will top out in the 79-86 degree range this afternoon. RH values will dip into the 30-35% range. A 5h ridge axis will shift east tonight as a shortwave tracks into the upper MS valley. A band of thunderstorms will move into IN, western KY and AR very late tonight. A few showers could enter western TN as well, but these are not expected to reach northwest AL before morning. Once again, a west-east temperature gradient of around 10 degrees is expected for overnight lows as high clouds increase. Lows will drop into the middle and upper 50s in eastern Jackson, DeKalb and Cullman Counties, up to the middle 60s in far western Lauderdale and Colbert Counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper level ridge continues pushing eastwards on Thursday resulting in a low to medium chance (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are higher (30-40%) for middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama. The thunderstorms are not anticipated to be severe and will result in very little precipitation totals for most, generally less than 0.10. Aside from the rain, temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Dry conditions return on Friday and increasing temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Tennessee Valley which is around 13-16 degrees warmer than normal. The high temperatures Friday approach record highs set in 2006 of 90 degrees at HSV and 92 at MSL. Friday night temperatures will continue to be warm with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. Be sure to drink plenty of water on Friday and take breaks in the shade. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW). Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals thru at least the first half of the valid TAF period, with modest low-level moisture advection (related to a 20-25 kt SW low-level jet) supporting development of a few stratocumulus clouds beginning later this evening. A diffuse sfc trough (extending south- southwestward from a low over the Great Lakes) will enter the forecast area shortly after 12Z, and should support the development of light SHRA during the late morning hours as it shifts eastward. At this point, the risk for TSRA appears too low to include in the TAFs, but a PROB30 group has been included from 13-18Z/MSL and 14-19Z/HSV to address the potential for minor vsby reductions within the lgt precipitation. Partial clearing may occur tomorrow aftn in the wake of morning rainfall, with sfc winds expected to remain from the SSW at a prevailing speed of 5-10 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...70/DD  337 FXAK67 PAJK 152358 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 358 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to move into the panhandle Wednesday evening before a band of precipitation moves into the northern and eventually central panhandle overnight - A more organized frontal band will follow into the panhandle Thursday afternoon, continuing precipitation through Friday - Showers/frontal bands continue to impact the panhandle through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... The forecast remains largely on track as mid-level clouds begin to push into the outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. This is preceding a band of precipitation associated with a shortwave trough that is expected to move from the west into the northern outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday evening. This band will continue to push into the northern and eventually parts of the central panhandle overnight, bringing light rainfall with short periods of snow for Yakutat and a rain/snow mix for Haines and Skagway. Behind this band, onshore flow will allow for developing showers in the gulf to push inland, continuing precipitation into Thursday morning. By early Thursday afternoon, a more organized frontal band is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast and steadily push eastward into the northern panhandle and eventually the central panhandle by Thursday evening. The front is expected to reach the southern panhandle overnight into early Friday morning, with onshore flow pushing showers into the panhandle behind the front and continuing precipitation through Friday. The initial front on Thursday will bring around half an inch of rain to the northern panhandle and less than a quarter of an inch of rain to the central panhandle, though Yakutat may see closer to an inch of rain into Friday. With showers continuing Friday, the northern panhandle is expected to see anywhere between a half an inch to an inch of rain, with the southern panhandle seeing closer to a quarter to a half an inch. Gusty winds are expected with the initial frontal bands, as well as with heavier showers behind them. Due to the relatively more northern track of this front, daytime high temperatures may not reach as high as they have been through the week, sitting around the mid 40s across the panhandle and only dropping to the mid 30s overnight into Friday. .LONG TERM... Continuing from the short term discussion, moist onshore flow will persist through Friday with minimal breaks in the cloud deck for the northern panhandle as moisture funnels straight into the northern coast. Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast- moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. Updates to the details of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer. && .AVIATION... Generally VFR transitioning to MVFR tonight from north to south across the Alaska Panhandle. High pressure that has kept us high and dry aviation-wise across SEAK today is weakening as an upper disturbance moves across the upper ridge over the northern GULFAK brings a mix of rain and snow in from the northwest late tonight into Thursday. The light rain switching to light snow tonight with CIGS ARND 2500 ft AGL work in across Yakutat, Elfin Cove and Gustavus this evening and into early morning, spreading south and going more of a rain/snow light mix Sitka to Hoonah, Angoon and Juneau, and rain to the south tomorrow morning into afternoon from Prince of Wales Island east into Misty Fjords and the Ketchikan area. We could see IFR for a brief period at Petersburg late tonight into early Thursday where a light radiational component under thin high cloud may happen for fog development, however we don't think it will be as prolonged as last night and earlier this morning. Generally, we would plan for prevailing MVFR through afternoon tomorrow with pockets of IFR where heavier rains set up. && .MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Our northwesterly flow down the east side of the broad central Gulf of Alaska high pressure ridge has weakened a bit today, even going southwesterly for most of the eastern Gulf, as the ridge starts to essentially break down. By Thursday, we see weak low pressure forming at the top of the weakening ridge just south of Anchorage, moving slowly east across the northern Gulf through Thursday. We keep that light to moderate west to southwesterly flow over the eastern Gulf going tonight into Thursday, except for the northern Gulf zones from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling where we have posted Small Craft Advisories for Thursday when we see a tighter pressure gradient on the north side of the low center, with winds increasing to 25 kt and a small fetch area generating 8 ft seas. Inner Channels: For today, we note an increased southerly flow down Lynn Canal to Portland Island where winds have picked up to 20 kt. We also see an uptick of southerly winds down parts of Stephens Passage and coming off the eastern Gulf of Alaska in Cross Sound. As we progress through the evening, these areas of increased winds will drop off a bit and we will see a light southeasterly to easterly flow through morning, then another uptick in southerly winds tomorrow. To the south, a generally light southerly to easterly flow expected tonight into Thursday before we do see an uptick in east to southeasterly winds around 15 kt late Thursday through late week. Overall, marine impacts over the inside waters remain benign to minor. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031-652-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kaplan LONG TERM...Kaplan AVIATION...Perez/Garmon MARINE...Morgan/Garmon Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau