984 FXUS63 KJKL 160000 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is southeast of a strong area of low pressure working east through the Central Plains. The high is keeping the weather warm and dry through the area. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf to FL area with the axis of this ridge extending north to the coast of the Carolinas to VA. Further west a trough extended through the Central Conus with an upper low over northeastern NE. Another shortwave was over the High Plains of CO to NW vicinity at this time. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was to the west of this trough from the Southwest Conus to the Four Corners region while an upper low was over the BC to Pacific Northwest vicinity with a trough south to CA. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from New England to the Great Lakes to a sfc near the IA/NE border and then south to the Southern Plains. Sfc high pressure was centered in the Southeast Conus with ridging extending into the Southern Appalachians. A few cumulus were in place across northwestern portions of the area where dewpoints were a bit higher in southwest flow in the mid to upper 50s while dewpoints in the south and southeast were in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures for all but the highest terrain were in the low to mid 80s. This evening and tonight, 500 mb heights are progged to trend upward early this evening before falling heights are anticipated later tonight as the upper low in the Plains tracks into WI and nears the western Great Lakes with the trailing shortwave entering the Lower OH Valley. At the same time, sfc high pressure will remain in place from the Southeast to off the southeast coast with ridging into the Southern Appalachians. Some high clouds should pass across eastern KY from time to time in this scenario, but moisture increases late if not during the day on Thursday. This should lead to several hours if not the entire night free of low and mid level clouds per 12Z HREF and eastern and southeastern valleys should again decouple and based on recent mixed dewpoints these locations should fall some 10 to 14 degrees below NBM deterministic values and to near readings that were observed this morning. Ridgetop and more open terrain locations should remain in the 60s. The upper low will weaken to an open wave by Thursday as it treks northeast to the Central Great Lakes while the axis of the upper ridge moves further east of the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. As the trailing shortwave passes by continued height falls should occur over eastern KY on Thursday while the shortwave that is initially in the High Plains moves across the Plains and nears the Lower OH Valley. That second shortwave should cross the area on Thursday evening into Thursday night. On Thursday, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE is on the lower end only peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range with some shear in the 30 to 40KT range for bulks shear. Recent CAM runs bring a few showers or an outflow boundary in from the west near or after dawn with some convection during peak heating. That activity may tend to wane and shift east of eastern KY by sunset on Thursday though some additional activity could affect southern portions of the area later Thursday evening and Thursday night with the second shortwave. This activity overall appears that it will be scattered in nature and rainfall from this will be variable, but generally a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. Locally higher amounts would occur with any thunderstorms and a couple of stronger wind gusts are not out of the question, especially if instability were to be higher than currently anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 00Z TAF issuance with southwest winds generally in the 5 to 12 kts range. The winds will shortly diminish after sunset, though may stay up off the sfc as a touch of LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts during the late night hours. Winds then increase again after sunrise on Thursday as a weather system nears. This will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds arriving that afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP/GREIF  655 FXUS65 KGJT 160000 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 600 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in various valleys tonight and tomorrow night before a widespread hard freeze sets in on Friday night. - After a brief mid-week warm up, cooler and unsettled weather returns to the region Thursday night through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1256 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 WARM DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, WINDY THROUGH THURSDAY: Transient high pressure is building in and will promote warm days and cool nights today and tomorrow. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the southwest Colorado valleys this evening where sub-freezing temperatures are expected. As our next weather system approaches from the northwest tomorrow, the strengthening pressure gradient will promote gusty afternoon winds. Northeast Utah and northwest Colorado will see the strongest winds with valley gusts up to 50 mph. As a result, Wind Advisories are in effect tomorrow from 11 AM to 8 PM. LATE WEEK HARD FREEZE, LIGHT SNOW: Precipitation chances increase Thursday PM into Friday as the aformentioned low pressure system moves through. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Uinta Mountains Thursday afternoon, with precipitation pushing southeast Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow levels drop on Friday as a strong cold front traverses the region. This will bring light snow to the northern and central mountains, with light snow possible in the valleys as well. As of now accumulations do not look impressive, but periods of winter travel conditions cannot be ruled out, especially at pass level. We will need moderate the heavy snowfall rates in the valleys in order to see accumulating snow on the warm pavement, which is only possible as the cold front is moving through. Perhaps most importantly, a hard freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see lows in the teens to upper 20's. Freeze Watches have been issued as we gear up for this impactful event. LOOKING AHEAD: A ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend into early next week resulting in the return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with southwest winds dropping off to terrain driven winds around sunset. Winds aloft increase overnight with areas of Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at the mountain TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds pick up after 15Z becoming strong through the afternoon gusting 30 to 45 kts with the stronger winds at the northern TAF sites. Showers will start to move into the northern areas after 21Z ahead of the next storm system with possible impacts to KVEL and KHDN in the last hours of the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ001-002- 007-008. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ008-021>023. UT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ024-027. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for UTZ024. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...DB  607 FXUS63 KLSX 160003 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 703 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging winds and large hail through 11pm. - Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected again on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A series of shortwaves can be seen across the Great Plains in water vapor imagery, with southwesterly flow across the Middle Mississippi Valley ahead of these waves. An elongated fetch of warm, moist air is feeding into the region from the Gulf, aiding in forcing scattered showers and thunderstorms now across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Model and ACARS soundings out of KSTL suggest that this convection is elevated above an inversion at 800- 850 mb. Associated convective debris has been inhibiting surface heating so far, causing a dearth of instability along and south of the MO I-44/IL I-55 corridor this afternoon. Westward across western Missouri, insolation and mid-60s to low 70s dewpoints have yielded upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Here, an extensive area of cumulus can be seen in visible satellite imagery. Subtle leading waves within the southwesterly flow and an area of lift via jet dynamics will produce nebulous lift across portions of central and northeastern Missouri, as well as west-central Illinois through this afternoon into this evening. If enough surface heating is realized, then the cap will break, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms among the aforementioned instability and about 50 kts of effective shear. This is an environment favorable for organized updrafts, with some supercell structures possible. A limiting factor for robust supercells is slight veer-back-veer vertical wind profiles and/or weak low to mid-level flow noted in ACARS soundings and the KLSX VWP. A mostly straight hodograph with these attributes will lead to both left and right-moving updrafts that will tend to be shorter-lived as they interact and grow into localized clusters. If this round materializes, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, though about 20 kts of 0-1km shear and 200m2/s2 of low-level SRH means that there is a low chance for brief tornadoes. A solution that CAMs are increasingly supporting is that convection this afternoon and early evening remains mostly subdued, allowing for the atmosphere to remain undisturbed ahead of a cold front moving into the region this evening and the early overnight hours. Then, lift from the shortwave and upper-level jet will be greater, pairing with the cold front to force numerous updrafts along and immediately ahead of the front as it moves eastward. Initially, both the vertical wind and thermal profile will be similar as this afternoon, leading to discrete supercells. Confidence is high that these discrete storms will form west of the CWA, growing upscale into clusters and line segments as they interact with each other and the front thanks to deep layer shear vectors parallel to the boundary. These interactions and waning instability after sunset will lead to a weakening trend as the line segments move into the CWA. The primary threat with this round will be damaging wind gusts, with line segments surging northeastward carrying a tornado threat thanks to 30-40kts of 0-3km shear vectors oriented southwest to northeast. Once the convection and associated stratiform rain clears the CWA during the early morning hours, mainly dry conditions are expected through early Friday. Though, there is a low chance for convection across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois tomorrow afternoon. Our attention then turns to Friday as a highly-amplified trough ejects out into the Plains and sends a cold front into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, ensemble clusters have a median value of 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE, with deterministic models showing as much as 3-4,000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is progged to be 45-50 kts, creating a environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the Midwest. Given the lead time and forecast load prior to then, further details on thunderstorm threats, timing, and placement for Friday will wait until later updates. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 At daybreak Saturday morning, guidance consensus is that Friday's front will be deep into the Ohio Valley and clear of the CWA as the axis of the upper-level trough pivots eastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. With the core of this trough and the track of the associated surface low being well north-northeast of the region, the CWA will miss out on the core of the post-frontal airmass. Still, increasingly deep northwesterly flow will push cooler air into the CWA, pushing Saturday and Sunday's temperatures to at and just below climatological normals. The trough will quickly shift eastward early next week, allowing for low to mid-level ridging to build and southwesterly flow to return across the region. This favors warming temperatures, with ensembles clustering around seasonal normals starting Monday and then above normal by mid-week. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 702 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A cold front is moving eastward, entering western MO, with a south- southwest to north-northeast oriented broken line of strong to severe storms along and ahead of the approaching boundary. These storms are forecast to near the central Missouri terminals at the start of the TAF, followed by KUIN and then the STL metro terminals later this evening/early tonight. Any thunderstorms that directly impacts terminals will be capable of IFR visibilities, gusty and variable winds, along with heavy rain and frequent lightning. Scattered showers may linger behind convection with conditions expected to improve by late tonight for all terminals. Surface winds veer southwesterly behind the front overnight becoming increasingly southerly by Thursday afternoon. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  944 FXUS62 KRAH 160004 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 803 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 800 PM Wednesday... * Increased Fire Danger criteria (within 5 mph wind and 5% RH of critical thresholds) will likely be met for all of cntl NC on Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 PM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Deep mixing on Thursday will promote a bit gustier sfc flow upwards of 20 kts or so in the afternoon. PWAT will remain below an inch, and given deep mixing, expect afternoon relative humidity to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. While the combined expected min RH and max gusts will be sub IFD criteria, the aforementioned fire risk due to anomalously dry fuels has prompted a request for another IFD for our entire CWA on Thursday (to be issued by the evening shift). A few CAMs are hinting at late night isolated showers possibly reaching the western/central Piedmont. However, limited moisture would only allow for trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of rain, if any at all. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty low. As such, fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend (isolated lightning on Sunday would be concerning) into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from now through Saturday, other than a brief mainly dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm SW flow to central NC. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and with plenty of sunshine, forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected from Thursday through Saturday, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Friday may be slightly cooler, particularly across the north where forecast highs are in the mid-to-upper-80s. This will depend on the degree of cloudiness and very light precipitation chances from the passage of a shortwave trough, which looks to have a surface reflection that briefly turns the low-level flow more WNW. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which based on low-level thicknesses looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days in a row of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC, which could produce some isolated to scattered showers from Saturday night into Sunday. While there is still a lot of uncertainty on timing of the frontal passage, the latest GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles have sped up, bringing it through in the morning which would give very little time for surface heating and instability to occur. This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means less than two tenths of an inch. So expect very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler early next week with highs in the mid-60s to 70 on Monday and lower-to-mid-70s on Tuesday. Sunday and Monday nights will be chilly with lows mostly in the upper-30s to lower-40s. Isolated mid-30s are on the table according to statistical guidance, particularly on Monday night which looks to have the best radiational cooling potential. So will need to watch for the threat of patchy frost. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 800 PM Wednesday... Sub-tropical high pressure and dry air extending across the South Atlantic states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and sswly surface winds that will strengthen and become gusty to 20-25 kts with afternoon heating on Thursday. Outlook: A relatively strong mid-level trough will move across cntl NC with associated rain/showers and ceilings as low as 6-8 thousand ft Fri morning. Another chance of (probably VFR) rain will exist along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC early Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April: KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...  876 FXUS63 KDTX 160006 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 806 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow night with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms; some rivers are expected to reach/exceed flood stage. -A Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather tomorrow south of I-69. -Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. -Turning windier and much colder Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s; a few snowflakes are possible. && .AVIATION... A period of VFR conditions will mark the beginning of this TAF period with mid to high clouds streaming over the terminal corridor. A few scattered showers exists across central Michigan, but another window for more widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives later tonight between 02Z and 09Z. Will continue to monitor coverage of thunderstorms as it approaches for a prevailing or tempo TSRA group. Best chance is across MBS/FNT. Will likely see periods of MVFR conditions with this activity if greater coverage prevails. Chances for scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms continues into tomorrow with yet another wave bringing another focused period of thunderstorm potential in the early afternoon tomorrow. DTW/D21 Convection... Another period of showers and possible thunderstorms develops within the 03z and 08z window tonight, but lower confidence exists in thunderstorm occurrence. Yet another period of better thunderstorm potential worthy of a PROB30 arrives during the early afternoon tomorrow. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft after 06Z tonight. * Low for thunderstorm tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 DISCUSSION... An active stretch of convection continues this afternoon and evening as the next round of thunderstorms move through Southeast Michigan. The primary stalled frontal boundary remains hung-up over northern Lower Michigan with dewpoints in the 40s, while downstate values are much higher, mostly in the 60s. This warm/moist airmass holds while a secondary, more subtle, convergence axis has become the area of greater concern for additional convective development, positioned from northern Indiana into the southern Ontario peninsula. Forecast soundings have hinted at some low-level CIN as weak capping in the 3- 5 kft layer tries to emerge, but CI over southern Monroe county proved that some surface-based parcels are still able to capitalize on potential instability. Extensive cloud cover limits deeper CAPE density, but fresh updrafts have managed to emerge along the boundary. A remnant MCV moving across the Tri-State area at press time follows a similar trajectory as it brushes southern Lower, and should maintain integrity given ambient shear and ThetaE convergence. A Slight Risk remains outlooked for much of Southeast Michigan by SPC, but the emphasis will be on locations south of I-94 where instability is maximized. Strong gusts and large hail are the anticipated severe hazards, but a weak tornado threat remains given 100+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, and persistent rotation from the inbound MCV (and vicinity storms). Further north, expect scattered coverage with a lesser concern for severe. Slightly higher risk for a few additional strong storms exists over the Tri-Cities and Thumb region this evening with the arrival of higher MUCAPE bubble. Mild again tonight with lows only in the 60s. More showers and thunderstorms develop overnight as the southern stream jet positions atop the Great Lakes with several perturbations rippling through. Healthy 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 knots will be available tonight, with some linearity in convective mode arising at times. Mixed signals exist regarding the prevalence of surface mixing potential, or if a weak nocturnal inversion can hold to keep convection more elevated. Very minimal change noted in mid-level temperature profiles tonight, but layer dewpoints/PWATs should rise supporting heavy rainfall rates, given increasing background tendency for synoptic ascent. Mid-level lapse rates remain below 6.5 C/km. Latest CAMs offer little clarity in timing a reprieve from convection on Thursday, therefore, early morning, late morning, and afternoon convective potential exists. Shortwave trough feature embedded within the mean flow slides through aloft between 15Z and 21Z. This provides a boost in CVA, leading to low-end severe potential, limited by instability. Shortwave ridging then slides in Friday with high confidence in a mainly dry day. Amplified longwave trough of eastern Pacific origin reaches Lower Michigan Friday night, favoring anomalous warmth, convection, and breezy conditions. The system forces a stark cold front through Saturday sending 850 mb temperatures crashing into the minus teens (Celsius). A transition to light snow showers is possible Sunday morning with post-frontal northwest flow and ensuing cold advection to close out the weekend. MARINE... Active pattern remains firmly in place as additional scattered areas of showers cross the region this evening. Thunderstorm potential is highest across the southern half of the area, particularly over the southern Great Lakes where a few strong to severe storms are possible (wind gusts in excess of 34kts being the primary hazard though some large hail or an isolated waterspout are possible). Trough moves into the area by Thursday maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms. System peels away from the region by Thursday night ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30s. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential is lower (<30%) at this time. HYDROLOGY... Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, any focused areas of convection could significantly over-perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to train, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for worse flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low tonight and Thursday, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. Afternoon rainfall rates have ranged between approximately 1 and 2 inches. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....KGK/SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  637 FXUS66 KSGX 160007 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 507 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures near average today and tomorrow with stronger onshore on Thursday: southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Winds turn offshore on Friday with northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer with weaker winds for the weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average for Saturday/Sunday. Then cooler and breezy early next week as a low pressure system moves toward the California coast, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty in how this system progresses. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... New Aviation and Marine Discussion... Current satellite and 500mb analysis reveals upper level flow is turning more quasi-zonal as the trough from the disturbed weather earlier this week departs. As a result, temperatures this afternoon will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, but is also fairly seasonable temperatures for mid April. This zonal setup is going to be fairly short-lived as the next trough (currently pushing into eh Pacific Northwest) is progged to dig southeastward through the Great Basin and northern Rockies Thursday into Friday. This trough and a slough of mid/upper level clouds on Thursday knocks temperatures back down a few degrees compared to today. Of most highlight from this trough late week will be the wind, with strengthening onshore flow on Thursday, followed by offshore winds late Thursday into Saturday. The elevated onshore flow Thursday afternoon will be felt most in the mountains/passes, adjacent deserts, and the high deserts. Wind gusts 35-45 mph expected in these areas, with localized areas up to 55 mph in the mounains and vulnerable mountain passes. With gusts upwards of 40-45 mph in the High Deserts, a Wind Advisory has been issued here from 11 AM Thursday through 2 AM Friday. As the upper trough pushes southeastward and surface high pressure spills into the Great Basin, winds will quickly switch to offshore, forcing north to northeasterly wind gusts of 35-45mph in and below mountain passes, locally up to 55 mph within passes. Timing of the flip to offshore looks to be overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with the peak gusts late Thursday morning to around noon. Gusts look to wane by the afternoon hours, with another weak push of easterly offshore winds Saturday. The offshore winds bring in warmer and drier air to the inland valleys, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday, continuing into Saturday. The forecast becomes much more uncertain early next week as global ensembles continue to struggle with the resolution of a large upper trough set to near the California coast Monday into Tuesday. Regardless of the track of this low, temperatures will remain on the cool side to start next week with elevated onshore winds likely. Depending on the track of this storm, some light precipitation may be brought to southern California, but details will have to continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 160000Z...Coasts...Currently, clear skies with the occasional low cloud around 2500ft MSL. Patchy low clouds based 1500-2500ft MSL are expected to develop around 02-03Z, increasing in coverage along the SD Co coast around 05-08Z and the Orange Co coast after 11Z. Low clouds will scatter out 16-17Z. Mountains/Deserts...Strong southwest to west winds expected after 18Z with gusts up to 30 to 40 knots possible. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Wind gusts to reach around 20 kts near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Munyan AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  488 FXUS64 KHGX 160007 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 707 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday. - Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to instances of flooding of urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue across Southeast Texas through the remainder of the week while a steady southeasterly to southerly surface flow persists between ridging over the Gulf and a trough over the Plains. A weak shortwave impulse embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will aid in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest this afternoon. A few of these showers/storms could clip our far northwestern/northern zones (including portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods) late this afternoon into this evening, where we will maintain low POPs between 10-30%. The rest of the forecast area should remain rain-free for the most part, though a few sprinkles or a very isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out through this evening. Very little in the way of lift is indicated for Thursday and Friday, so rain chances remain below mentionable levels (<=10 percent) in our forecast products for the latter part of the week. Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week with overnight lows continuing to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the region and daytime highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s over interior areas and mostly around 80 degrees along coastal locations Thursday and Friday. An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Plains on Saturday, and an associated cold front still looks on track to push across our forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture will be in place along the approaching cold front, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.75 to 2 inches over southeast Texas per some of the latest forecast model guidance. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread over our area along the advancing front Saturday afternoon and evening. The deep moisture will bring favorable conditions for locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates potentially peaking in the 2-3+" per hour range, which could lead to flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. A marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall continues on Saturday for much of the forecast area generally along and north of Interstate 10. A slight chance of showers will linger into Sunday, especially over coastal areas. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front, with lows falling back into the 50s over our central/northern counties and in the lower to mid 60s along the coast on Sunday and Monday morning. Highs generally range in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday and in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Monday. Another series of shortwave impulses embedded within westerly flow aloft may bring a continued low chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another persistence forecast with VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds prevailing though sunset. Winds begin to decrease after sunset (down to around 5-8kt inland, near 10-15kt at the coast) with MVFR CIGs (1500-2500ft) returning around 5-6z that will prevail through the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. There may be a brief period around 11-13z where CIGs will lower to IFR levels (down to around 700ft) near CXO and UTS, but will return to MVFR-levels through the remainder of the morning. CIGs will scatter out to VFR across the region between 16-18z. Southerly winds 10-15kt (and some higher gusts) return across the region by the late morning and will continue through the remainder of the day. Isolated light streamer showers will be possible during the morning and early afternoon hours, but will be too isolated to include in the TAFs. Winds will again decrease after sunset, and a return to MVFR conditions is expected again Thursday night into Friday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate onshore flow pattern will persist through the latter part of the week. Small craft should exercise caution through this afternoon, especially over bays and near shore waters where winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots. The elevated onshore flow will keep water levels elevated, with values up to 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW around times of high tide cycles over the next few days. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with a continued increased risk of rip currents. A cold front will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Saturday night. Strong offshore wind flow will develop behind the passing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday along with building seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 88 / 10 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Lindsey  326 FXUS64 KMEG 160012 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return late tonight into Thursday, with low confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. - Well above-normal high temperatures continue, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through Thursday. High temperatures will climb to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another warm, spring-like day persists across the Mid-South with temperatures in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. Afternoon high temperatures are still on track to reach the mid 80s across much of the area, with a similar overall feel as our weather conditions from yesterday. As we move into tonight, there is currently a weak upper-level low pushing off the Rockies this afternoon that will move up towards the Upper Midwest into Thursday. This parent system will bring showers and severe thunderstorms west and north of our area this afternoon and evening, with this dwindling line approaching our area overnight into early Thursday morning. There will be very little instability for any of these storms to work with as they reach our area, so severe weather is not anticipated initially. A few CAMs continue to hint at a secondary resurgence in activity by Thursday afternoon as a weak shortwave pushes across the northern half of the area. If storms are able to get going Thursday afternoon, there is a Marginal Risk for some storms to become strong to severe under a favorable environment with decent lapse rates and instability. The main concern with any of these storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. However, given the uncertainty and how the morning convection will progress, the chance does remain low. By Friday, temperatures will surge across the area with another weak shortwave passing across the north half of the CWA. PoPs remain around the 20-30% range, although this could play spoiler to some well above normal temperatures for Friday. Across the area, high temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s. The current record high temperature for Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro is 91 degrees and 89 degrees for Tupelo on April 17th. With the current high temperature forecast, Tupelo has the best chance of reaching or exceeding their record with a small chance that the remaining sites could as well. This will be something worth watching into Friday. Into Saturday, an upper- level trough will exit the Plains, bringing a cold front through the region by the afternoon to evening. This will bring fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) through the area during the day and into the evening on Saturday. Given the presence of upper-level forcing and LREF joint probabilities for favorable CAPE and shear generally being in the 30-40% range, strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the frontal boundary moves through the area on Saturday. While the area is not currently included in any risk outlooks from SPC with it being Day 4, would not be surprised if a Marginal Risk is introduced with the Day 3 outlook tomorrow morning. Something to watch over the next few days, albeit the threat does remain low. From a QPF standpoint, the majority of guidance has much of the Mid-South receiving anywhere from 0.25" to 0.5" of rainfall on Saturday. While this is nowhere close to erasing our current deficit across the area, it should help a little for those who have been waiting for measurable rainfall. Behind Saturday's frontal boundary, a much cooler and drier air mass will move into the region with high pressure building through the middle of next week. Sunday's high temperatures will finally fall below normal for the time of year, with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s. This temporary below normal relief will be short lived as temperatures will rebound by Monday. However, temperatures will only rebound to around near- normal, with highs settling around the mid 70s to start next work week. With the dominant high pressure, this will keep PoPs out of the forecast through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail overnight with intermittent drops to MVFR conditions as -SHRA moves across JBR/MEM/MKL. Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL in the afternoon ahead of diurnally enhanced convection. Confidence was only high enough in PROB30s for timing of -TSRA in the afternoon at JBR/MEM/MKL. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MinRH values will remain in the 35-40%+ range today, with additional moisture returning to the region by Thursday. This moisture return will allow minRH values to rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be around 0.5" at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AEH  550 FXUS63 KARX 160015 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 715 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, primarily affecting northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin with potentially damaging wind and large hail. Isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. - Break in storms and rainfall expected Thursday with a line of severe storms possible Friday afternoon and night. While it remains too far out to nail down details, all hazards look possible with enhanced forcing and an unstable airmass in place. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Severe Storms Possible Again Today Another day, another chance for severe weather to impact the Driftless Region. Early this afternoon an elevated supercell was moving across Western and Central Iowa, riding a quasi-stationary boundary north and east along a gradient of MLCAPE. As it's generally on the cool side of the front, this is expected to continue to pose more of a large hail threat given steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE in the hail growth zone. Further east across Northeast Iowa and Southwest Wisconsin, lingering cloud cover and light showers have allowed the area to remain sufficiently capped and overall stable. As these finally start to move to the east/northeast, we may see a small window of destabilization. Latest mesoanalysis trends show meager destabilization before storms really start to fire later this afternoon as ascent from an ejecting upper trough across the Central Plains increases across the area and interacts with the surface boundary. Moderately strong mid level lapse rates should still promote between 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, even with the continued cloud cover. The main threat with any storms would be large to potentially very large hail. There's also potential for splitting supercells given the significantly elongated straight hodographs expected with this activity. The main question will be how long storms can stay semi-discrete before either lifting north of the boundary or growing upscale into a cluster as effective bulk shear between 30-50 kts will promote upscale growth. These storms will also be effective rainfall producers as pWats continue to increase with 850 mb moisture transport into the region. Another 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation is expected with across portions of SW and Central Wisconsin, areas that have already seen ample rainfall and flooding over the past couple of days. Have issued a Flood Watch for this area starting at 4 pm and continuing through 7 am tomorrow morning as areal flooding may form with exacerbation to already ongoing areal/river flooding expected. Even More Severe Weather Friday After a brief reprieve from severe storms Thursday, we re-enter the severe weather fray on Friday. A deep trough over the Rockies is expected to start sliding east with ascent out ahead of it increasing across the southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface a family of lows will stretch south from the Dakotas into the Central Plains and Colorado Rockies with a cold front connecting them. A broad warm sector will develop across the Mississippi Valley ahead of this cold front which will allow for convective development Friday afternoon as ascent aloft increases locally and interacts with the eastward moving cold front. A highly unstable air mass should be in place with forecast instability in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Effective shear will be ample enough to support initial supercellular development before upscale growth occurs and forms a more linear structure. A 40-60 kt jet in the 850-700 mb layer will also help to promote low/mid level hodograph curvature and strength, increasing the potential for tornadoes with the supercells. The main question will be how far north can the moisture and more ample instability make it ahead of storm initiation with greater uncertainty in northward extent. Far southern portions of NE Iowa are currently in a Day 3 Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) with the rest of the local area in a level 2 Slight Risk. Much Cooler This Weekend, Snow Chances?? Behind this cold front, cold air advection will be rather strong given the tight pressure gradient behind the departing surface low (moving northeast into Ontario). With the strong cooling expected in the wake of the front, any post frontal precipitation may potentially turn to a rain snow mix Friday night into Saturday as lows drop into the low to mid 30s. No accumulations are expected as surface temperatures will remain quite warm after the stretch of 70+ degree temperatures we've seen as of late. Any snow should melt on contact pretty quickly. Precipitation will gradually come to an end through the day with high temperatures in the 40s, 20-30+ degrees cooler from Friday. Beyond Saturday, it looks like a dry forecast with temperatures warming back into the 50s and 60s by mid week - a much welcomed relief after an active week of severe weather! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 More widespread storm chances seen shifting east through the southern half of the forecast area affecting smaller airports from northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin at 16.00Z TAF issuance. While this area is expected to continue exiting east, the upstream low center raises concerns for additional scattered storms somewhere across the forecast area, potentially farther north affecting local TAF sites (KLSE/KRST). Therefore, have included PROB30 TS at KLSE given current confidence in location but will require further investigation as storms continue developing through central Iowa. Similar to previous overnights, expect VFR-LIFR shallow fog to develop in spots affecting select sites where it thickens. VFR expected through && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Flood Watch has been issued for Southwestern Wisconsin and portions of West Central Wisconsin as yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is set to impact the region. With additional .5- 1.5 inches of QPF expected from this activity, areal and river flooding is expected to worsen. The main basins of concern look to be the Kickapoo, the Yellow (WI), Lemonweir, and Wisconsin Rivers as these areas have already been hit hard over this past week. Major flooding is either already occurring or expected to occur for the Yellow River at Necedah, Castle Rock Dam on the Wisconsin River, and the Lemonweir River in New Lisbon. Flooding along the Lemonweir has already lead to some road closures in portions of Juneau and Monroe counties with additional rain likely to exacerbate ongoing problems. Additional rainfall is also expected Friday as a line of storms moves through the entire area, again impacting portions of SW and WC Wisconsin. QPF totals with that system remain a bit more uncertain - though another 0.5 -1.5 inches certainly looks possible. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WIZ042>044-053>055- 061. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...Barendse  941 FXAK67 PAJK 160017 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 417 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to move into the panhandle Wednesday evening before a band of precipitation moves into the northern and eventually central panhandle overnight - A more organized frontal band will follow into the panhandle Thursday afternoon, continuing precipitation through Friday - Showers/frontal bands continue to impact the panhandle through the weekend SHORT TERM... The forecast remains largely on track as mid-level clouds begin to push into the outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. This is preceding a band of precipitation associated with a shortwave trough that is expected to move from the west into the northern outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday evening. This band will continue to push into the northern and eventually parts of the central panhandle overnight, bringing light rainfall with short periods of snow for Yakutat and a rain/snow mix for Haines and Skagway. Behind this band, onshore flow will allow for developing showers in the gulf to push inland, continuing precipitation into Thursday morning. By early Thursday afternoon, a more organized frontal band is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast and steadily push eastward into the northern panhandle and eventually the central panhandle by Thursday evening. The front is expected to reach the southern panhandle overnight into early Friday morning, with onshore flow pushing showers into the panhandle behind the front and continuing precipitation through Friday. The initial front on Thursday will bring around half an inch of rain to the northern panhandle and less than a quarter of an inch of rain to the central panhandle, though Yakutat may see closer to an inch of rain into Friday. With showers continuing Friday, the northern panhandle is expected to see anywhere between a half an inch to an inch of rain, with the southern panhandle seeing closer to a quarter to a half an inch. Gusty winds are expected with the initial frontal bands, as well as with heavier showers behind them. Due to the relatively more northern track of this front, daytime high temperatures may not reach as high as they have been through the week, sitting around the mid 40s across the panhandle and only dropping to the mid 30s overnight into Friday. LONG TERM... Continuing from the short term discussion, moist onshore flow will persist through Friday with minimal breaks in the cloud deck for the northern panhandle as moisture funnels straight into the northern coast. Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast- moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. Updates to the details of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer. AVIATION... Generally VFR transitioning to MVFR tonight from north to south across the Alaska Panhandle. High pressure that has kept us high and dry aviation-wise across SEAK today is weakening as an upper disturbance moves across the upper ridge over the northern GULFAK brings a mix of rain and snow in from the northwest late tonight into Thursday. The light rain switching to light snow tonight with CIGS ARND 2500 ft AGL work in across Yakutat, Elfin Cove and Gustavus this evening and into early morning, spreading south and going more of a rain/snow light mix Sitka to Hoonah, Angoon and Juneau, and rain to the south tomorrow morning into afternoon from Prince of Wales Island east into Misty Fjords and the Ketchikan area. We could see IFR for a brief period at Petersburg late tonight into early Thursday where a light radiational component under thin high cloud may happen for fog development, however we don't think it will be as prolonged as last night and earlier this morning. Generally, we would plan for prevailing MVFR through afternoon tomorrow with pockets of IFR where heavier rains set up. MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Our northwesterly flow down the east side of the broad central Gulf of Alaska high pressure ridge has weakened a bit today, even going southwesterly for most of the eastern Gulf, as the ridge starts to essentially break down. By Thursday, we see weak low pressure forming at the top of the weakening ridge just south of Anchorage, moving slowly east across the northern Gulf through Thursday. We keep that light to moderate west to southwesterly flow over the eastern Gulf going tonight into Thursday, except for the northern Gulf zones from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling where we have posted Small Craft Advisories for Thursday when we see a tighter pressure gradient on the north side of the low center, with winds increasing to 25 kt and a small fetch area generating 8 ft seas. Inner Channels: For today, we note an increased southerly flow down Lynn Canal to Portland Island where winds have picked up to 20 kt. We also see an uptick of southerly winds down parts of Stephens Passage and coming off the eastern Gulf of Alaska in Cross Sound. As we progress through the evening, these areas of increased winds will drop off a bit and we will see a light southeasterly to easterly flow through morning, then another uptick in southerly winds tomorrow. To the south, a generally light southerly to easterly flow expected tonight into Thursday before we do see an uptick in east to southeasterly winds around 15 kt late Thursday through late week. Overall, marine impacts over the inside waters remain benign to minor. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kaplan LONG TERM...Kaplan AVIATION...Perez/Garmon MARINE...Morgan/Garmon Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  663 FXUS62 KILM 160019 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 819 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated below for 0z TAFs. Fire Danger Statement issued for southeast NC counties Thursday due to very dry fuels, low RH and gusty winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. A Fire Danger Statement continues for southeast NC through this evening. Dry conditions continue for the entire area with active fire evident on satellite. Minimum RH will drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s each afternoon, except for coastal areas where an afternoon sea breeze will keep minimum RH in the 40s. Southerly winds remain weak, but seven-day rainfall totals are zero. Rainfall totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C Thursday and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees Thursday and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Record highs Thursday through Saturday: .............Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. The cold front will encounter increasing moisture limitations as it moves east of the Appalachians during Monday. NBM probabilistic rainfall graphics show only low chances for >0.01 as the boundary moves through. The window for any precipitation appears limited as well, especially with deeper drying expected to develop by Sunday evening. Otherwise, expecting gusty winds (potentially 20-25 mph) several hours either side of the frontal passage. This is a fire weather concern given the drought status. During Monday the surface high will build over the region providing a period of cooler than normal weather. Highs during Monday will be hard pressed to reach 70/lower 70s even with full sun. Radiational cooling will likely be most effective Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the typical cool spots possibly dropping into the upper 30s. During Tuesday the high will move offshore allowing temperatures to recover by midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Persistence forecast for the upcoming 24 hour period. Smoke could impact visibilities late tonight for parts of Williamsburg and northern Horry counties. Light southerly winds overnight. Southwest winds 10 kts Thursday with gusts 15-20 kts, with southerly sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Summer-like Bermuda high maintains a quiet and persistent forecast through Thursday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday night through Monday...SWly winds will prevail ahead of a weak inland surface trough Thursday night through Saturday with some backing each day with the sea breeze. A cold front moving across the waters during Sunday will allow winds to veer, and increase in the wake of the boundary Sunday afternoon/early evening. There could be a briefing period of Small Craft conditions during that time. Winds will continue to veer from an offshore direction to NE-Ely Monday through Tuesday as an area of high pressure translates over NC/VA and gradually offshore. SWly winds could increase again Wednesday night and Thursday morning before a weak pressure gradient causes light/variable conditions late Thursday. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less through much of the period, but at times could reach 4-6' with the frontal passage and late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED... KEY MESSAGES...21 DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...VAO MARINE...21/SRP  844 FXUS61 KCTP 160023 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 823 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Tweaked timing on convection this evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. 2) Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. Morning convection helped to raise dewpoints slightly, but they have started to lower with deeper mixing in between shots of forcing. Gusty SWrly wind is topped by Wrly flow in mid levels. The forecast soundings/profiles do support CAPE rising to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening over the NW. Forcing from a short wave trough will arrive late in the day, and help flare some deep convection. Shear is close to 45KTs at BFD around 6 PM. Most num guid develops storms over nrn OH and slides it into Warren Co around 5 PM. Mid level flow of 60+ KTs, too. Fast moving storms with multi-cellular or even super- cellular mode are expected. Coverage is expected to increase through 8 or 9 PM before struggling to hold together and push too far S of I-80. An isolated storm or two could pop S of there, but we'll have lots of CINH to erase for that to happen. The storms should start to wane as we lose heating and the trough passes to the east late this evening/early tonight. The threat for severe wx should be done by 10 or 11 PM. A weak boundary will likely lay out W-E right thru the middle of the CWA as they die off. The wet areas will probably develop some fog overnight. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. South of the boundary mentioned above will be dry as the drought conditions beget more drought for the southern third of the CWA. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, the heat of Wed will be replicated. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels are not dry enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a mention more than here in the discussion. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. The main, wavy front will be laying out to our north for the next day and a half. Deep mixing here in the warm sector has already pushed temps well above normal, with 3 PM temps already near records in many spots and even higher than normal high temperatures in July. Expect this to repeat Thursday (tomorrow). The possibility of clouds and some morning fog across the nrn tier could hold them just a deg or two below what we see right now. The earlier boundary Additional showers/storms are expected Thurs in just about the same timing and location as this evening. The mid-level winds will not be as strong, though. So, the threat for severe weather is not as great nor as widespread as this evening - staying confined to the far NW. SPC MRGL is appropriate. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. Low pressure rolls to the east along the main front to our N Thursday night. Fri looks mainly dry and 5-10F cooler, but Saturday holds the next chc for SHRA/TSRA. The bigger change will come later in the weekend as a significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air. In fact, Monday night could hold a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down AOB 32F. Monday will be 10-12F colder than Sunday as the big high pressure area floats in from central Canada. Day 6-7 look warmer again as we get into a SW flow due to the high sliding rather quickly east. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is likely (70-80% chance) to prevail across most terminals tonight, though periods of at least MVFR restrictions may impact northern PA (KBFD/KIPT) through 12Z due to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread VFR is likely (80-90% chance) from 12Z-21Z Thursday during a lull in rain/thunderstorm activity, with another round of scattered showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms reaching our western (KBFD/KJST) and central (KAOO/KUNV) airfields thereafter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have congealed across northwestern PA this evening and are expected to impact KBFD between 01Z-03Z with a TEMPO for 4SM TSRA with gusts to around 23 kts, and to impact KIPT between 02Z-04Z with less confidence (PROB30 for 4SM -TSRA) given waning instability after sunset. While thunderstorms will remain possible across the Northern Tier (primarily KBFD) through 09Z as instability lingers, gradually stabilizing conditions with the loss of daylight limits wording to a PROB30 at this time. Widespread VFR is likely (80-90%) across most of our airfields after 12Z Thursday, though the LAMP has a low chance (20-30%) for MVFR ceilings around 2500-3000 ft at KBFD. Given that southwesterly winds will be increasing regionwide as a low pressure moves across the Great Lakes & daytime sunlight mixes out the boundary layer, I leaned toward NBM 75th percentile ceilings, which ultimately suggests VFR. After 21Z, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop across western PA, with the HREF suggesting that this line will reach KBFD/KJST between 21Z-24Z, with lesser impacts at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT after 23Z as the line weakens upon encountering drier air. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Colbert  411 FXUS62 KGSP 160025 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of our NC and GA counties again for Thursday afternoon into early evening. Fire danger continues to increase through the weekend. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Thursday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Thursday afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged with stout upper ridging centered over the Gulf into Florida with well above average heights extending north into the southeast states. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs within an active southern stream flow will lift over the ridge across the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will continue to leave the Southern Appalachians high and dry with surface high pressure locked in as well. The main focus over the next several days will be a threat for fire danger each afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Forecast soundings reveal a deep well mixed boundary layer extending up to nearly 800mb. Relative humidity values are already crashing this afternoon with dewpoints mixing out a good bit below NBM forecast values. Have adjusted dewpoints down considerably both this afternoon and again the next several days heading into the weekend. This results in critical values of 25-30%. Occasional wind gusts will also be possible with modest flow within and at the top of the mixed layer. Momentum transport will help realize gusts around 20 mph, perhaps a hair higher. The low humidity combined with winds and very dry fuels will result in increased fire danger. A special weather statement has been issued for Thursday afternoon. A red flag warning cannot be completely ruled out for tomorrow either should wind gusts increase more than currently forecast. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures are expected early next week. Stout upper ridging across the Southeast from an upper anticylone over the northeast Gulf/FL peninsula should start to break down tomorrow as a lead short wave trof drifts across the Ozark Plateau/Mid-MS Valley regions. Not that it will have much of an effect on our region just yet, as temps will climb well above normal each day through Saturday after the initial wave passes. High temps for Thursday have probably the best chance to break records east of the mountains based on the continued drought conditions and the new forecast, which is very close to record values. By Friday and Saturday, the records are several degrees warmer, so perhaps not quite as good a chance. Either way, it will be a dry heat for mid-April. Guidance still has a cold front on track to move in from the west Saturday night as a robust mid/upper trof swings across the Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of the front, the upper flow across the Deep South is more west-southwesterly, which doesn't provide an ideal setup for moisture return. It stands to reason that areas along the TN border will stand the best chance for some precip because of loosely organized convection moving in from the west before weakening in the evening. East of the mtns, however, it would be best to not get your hopes up. The modest moisture transport, ongoing dry conditions, and weakening forcing suggest limiting precip probs to the chance range at best. Except for the TN border region, the QPF from the models is more of an insult at this point, and would provide no relief. The front is expected to move east of the area by midday Sunday, and should usher in temperatures much more reasonable for this time of year. It might almost feel like a backwards change of seasons, with lows and highs at or slightly under normal for the first part of next week. Unfortunately, the new air mass will be very dry, so expect another round of high fire danger. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Southwest winds with periods of mainly thin, high clouds streaming overhead. Winds go light tonight with gusts returning again tomorrow afternoon along with additional high clouds. KAVL winds will be tricky due to a cross-valley (and cross-runway) flow. The majority of the guidance has winds staying SW to WSW, but there is a chance it could favor a NW direction thru much of the day Thursday, with periodic gusts. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510. SC...None. && $$ ARK/PM/TW  845 FXUS65 KBOU 160030 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 630 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and snow for most locations. - Hard freeze Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Flow aloft backs to the southwest tonight and increases Thursday ahead of an approaching upper level trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures warm back up into the 70s across northeast Colorado and relative humidities fall into the teens. This will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-70. A surface low develops over northeast Colorado and into Wyoming in response to the southwest flow aloft. The main upper level trough tracks eastward across the Northern Rockies on Thursday and into the Northern Plains on Friday. Additionally, a shortwave trough will travel southeast across the Great Basin on Thursday and the Central Rockies on Friday. The cold front associated with this system will dive south across Colorado Thursday night and early Friday.  Much colder air moves into the area with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s across northeast Colorado. Like most systems this season, it will be somewhat moisture starved. Snow moves into the mountains late Thursday night and early Friday morning and then progresses eastward across the urban corridor and eastern plains. Snowfall amounts are expected to be light, less than 3 inches across the lower elevations and 2 to 7 inches over the mountains. Since most of the snow is expected to fall during the daytime hours, roads will mainly just be wet. Roads in the mountains may become snow- covered in places, mainly over the mountain passes. A possible greater impact than the snow will be cold temperatures. The temperatures will not be extremely cold for this time of year, but it has been about 5 weeks since we last saw air this cold. Since then many irrigation systems have been turned on and perennials have bloomed. The prolonged cold temperatures (upper teens and lower 20s) Friday night and Saturday night could damage above ground irrigation systems and bloomed perennials. It is best to drain and/or protect irrigation systems before the cold air arrives. Cool northwest flow aloft will prevail behind the exiting system on Saturday with highs expected to reach the 50s across northeast Colorado. Breezy northwest winds up to 30 mph are possible over the northeast plains. Warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an upper level ridge to the west. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. The warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday as the upper level ridge moves over the Central Rockies. This pattern is expected to bring dry conditions on all three days. The forecast becomes less clear on Wednesday as the ridge is expected to move east of the region. Will southwest flow aloft or an upper level trough/low replace the ridge? Models are still showing a wide variety of solutions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/... Issued at 624 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions through the end of the forecast period. Winds have started to weaken but remain primarily from the west across the region with a few NW gusts lingering at KAPA. Winds will gradually become variable around sunset before transitioning to the usual SW-SSW drainage flow this evening. Drainage winds will be in place through Thursday morning and likely remain southwest for most of the day before taking on more of a westerly component around 20Z-23Z. Brief periods of 20KT gusts could be possible late in the afternoon as well. We expect a cold frontal passage to bring a northerly wind shift to the area sometime between 05Z and 07Z on Thursday evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ214-216- 241-246-247. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ038>051. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ245-249. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...AA  663 FXUS61 KCLE 160045 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 845 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely unchanged. There will be severe weather potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards possible. Additional rounds of severe weather possible Thursday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential across the region continues this afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday. 2) Multiple rounds of precipitation through Thursday night will bring flooding potential to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northwestern Ohio. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Highest potential for frost/freeze will be Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday as a boundary wavers through the central Great Lakes through the early weekend. See below for a breakdown for each day: Today: Northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania continues to destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the southwest. As this occurs, MLCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0 C/km. Lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm potential. Additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, that will support organized convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are currently getting started across eastern Indiana and western Ohio early afternoon along a boundary across that area. As this moves eastward more into Ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and intensity. Timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the western portion of the CWA by 2-3PM and traverse across exiting into Pennsylvania by 8-9PM. Another round of thunderstorms are possible late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving through the region. Though, severe potential associated with those should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates. Thursday: Another round of severe weather is possible on Thursday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the continued southwesterly flow. The main threat will be in the evening with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the region. Can't rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best instability. The severe weather potential should begin to diminish around sunset and move out to the east. Saturday: The next round of severe potential will be during the afternoon on Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the strong low to mid level winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... With plenty of moisture advection across the region through Thursday night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Precipitable water values will be around 1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in thunderstorms. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through Thursday night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north of the area and support the potential for training storms. Generally expecting this to stay north of US Route 30. Through Thursday night, rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end amounts closer to the lake shore. Higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms as well. Latest guidance has trended northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so confidence is lower in this. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures through Saturday evening will continue to be above average. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see southwesterly flow across the region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday sweeping a cold front through that will usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop down to 5-10 degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest of this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations possibly seeing upper 20s. Given the growing season as begun across Ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night with a lower potential for Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday rising to around seasonally average. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Complex of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms has exited the area to the east giving way to a period of mostly quiet weather for the next few hours. Conditions are quickly improving to VFR behind the showers. Abundant low level moisture and high dewpoints will remain overnight but expecting enough mid level cloud and southwest winds of 5-10 knots to prevent fog formation. A low pressure system over Iowa will track through the Central Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as this system pulls a north to south oriented cold front east across the area. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms could reach Northwest Ohio as early as 10-12Z, likely expanding in coverage with heating as it moves to the east. Tried to include potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms in the 14-20Z window. A few additional showers may linger at northern terminals through the TAF period. Winds will tend to be out of the southwest with gusts of 20-25 knots returning after 14Z on Thursday. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Lake Erie remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across the lake Thursday night. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through Friday. Ahead of the cold front, winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less. Behind the front, winds veer to W'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 knots. Accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. These winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. During Friday night through Saturday morning, the ridge should exit E'ward and allow a warm front to sweep N'ward across Lake Erie. Mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S'erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots behind the front. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers should occur in open U.S. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. A strong cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie Saturday evening through Saturday night and allow SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to W'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 7 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed, especially east of The Islands. Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie through Sunday night and be accompanied by W'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet should persist. On Monday, a ridge should build from the west and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by sunset Monday evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006>009-018-019. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...10 MARINE...Jaszka  015 FXUS64 KOUN 160048 CCA AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Norman OK 748 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe thunderstorms are expected through late evening; severe storms are possible on Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general, are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest multi-cell and/or splitting storms. Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset, surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values (curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year, a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44. With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, as well. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thursday will remain dry and breezy. The main concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to low-90's. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. Thompson/6 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from KPNC to KSWO to east of KOKC/KOUN to east of KLAW/KSPS. These thunderstorms will continue to move to the east this evening with a threat for strong wind gusts, hail, and reduced visibility. In the wake of the storms, MVFR ceilings are likely across the eastern half of the area tonight. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be from the south/southeast. These winds will increase in speed by mid to late tomorrow morning. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 87 66 81 / 20 0 10 40 Hobart OK 54 90 64 88 / 10 0 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 61 92 66 87 / 30 0 10 20 Gage OK 47 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 56 85 66 82 / 20 0 0 60 Durant OK 65 86 66 82 / 70 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10  048 FXZS60 NSTU 160051 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 151 PM SST Wed Apr 15 2026 .Short term [tonight through Friday night]... This afternoon's RAOB upper-air sounding shows that the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere have become significantly more moist and unstable compared to the overnight hours due to a nearby trough to the north and east of the territory. A weak surface convergence in the light easterly flow is indicated by satellite wind estimates (ASCAT) over the islands. This weak convergence helped to develop a line of showers that has overspread from Manu'a early this morning to Tutuila by late morning to early afternoon. Showers have tended to be light as the convergence is very weak and the trough remains displaced to the north and east, keeping the flooding threat very low despite coverage briefly increasing to numerous showers. As the surface wind flow becomes variable tonight, rain chances should decrease back to scattered without the influence of the convergence. The trough will remain north and east of the islands throughout the duration of the short term forecast period. Light surface winds (under 10 mph) are expected to hold for this time frame. Showers are expected to return to scattered Thursday into Flag Day, with near to slightly below average rainfall for this time of year. .Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]... During the weekend into the new week, a weak surface ridge of high pressure will develop to the south of the territory. This should bring an easterly trade wind flow regime by late weekend through the new week. Since the ridge is forecast to be weak, trade winds are not expected to be overly strong, likely remaining in the 5 to 15 mph range. Isolated to scattered passing showers are possible embedded in the tradewind flow. && .Marine... Following the rough ocean conditions over the weekend, seas have gradually subsided throughout the week, down to around 5 feet at Aunu'u buoy which is favorable for small craft. The favorable seas and light winds will continue through the remainder of Flag Day week, bringing ideal conditions for mariners. South swells are expected to increase period times Thursday into Friday. However, these swells are expected to be small with seas remaining in the 4 to 6 foot range. Still the long period times may lead to some stronger currents along vulnerable shorelines, conditions for mariners on the other hand may become even more favorable as long period swell is less choppy that short period wind waves. For the extended period, wave models do not indicate any signifcant change in ocean conditions. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None && $$ Barton  789 FXUS63 KILX 160053 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 753 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50-70% chance for scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Some of these storms could be severe, including heavy rainfall. - There is another risk for severe storms late Friday evening through Saturday. - Much cooler weather returns this weekend. There is a low chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance areawide Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms extend from southern Wisconsin to southwest Missouri early this evening. While the main shortwave is moving through eastern Nebraska, some more subtle impulses are helping to fuel the ongoing storms. Latest HRRR runs have been struggling with some consistency on the overall trends, but the bigger severe threat in our CWA will be west of I-55 into late evening. Main forecast updates have been to tweak the rain chances through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave trough over the central Plains will pivot into western Iowa this evening and serve as one of the main forcing mechanisms for thunderstorm development across a good portion of the central US this evening, including central Illinois. Lingering rain showers will continue to impact parts of eastern and southeast Illinois this afternoon, with a lull in precipitation further west. Several shortwave impulses ahead of the main upper wave may bring periods of showers and storms working across the area from late afternoon into this evening with the latest CAMs showing isolated activity spreading in as early as 21Z/4 pm west of the Illinois River. Environmental conditions have been slow to improve due to widespread cloud cover from morning storms. RAP forecast analysis suggests SBCAPE will approach 1500 J/kg in western Illinois over the next few hours with deep layer shear up around 40 kts, which is sufficient for storm organization. Although the main surface front remains displaced off to our north, better forcing from the approaching wave should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Hodographs favor supercell/multicellular storm modes, posing a threat for all severe hazards. Although timing and coverage of late afternoon/early evening storms remains low, CAM output becomes more consistent later this evening as a linear MCS works through the area as the surface front nears. Although instability will wane some by then, the threat for damaging winds will still be a threat. Heavy rain is also a concern through tonight, especially over areas that picked up 1-2"+ this morning (along a Rushville to Bloomington line). Warm cloud depths, high PWATs, and the potential for repeating rounds of storms could lead to a localized flash flooding threat. The 15.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows pockets of 2"+ over parts of the area, though confidence in the exact location of these amounts remains low. A break from storms is expected on Thursday as large-scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper shortwave. However, the threat for more thunderstorms returns Friday evening into Saturday as a compact upper shortwave tracks through the Upper Mississippi Valley and sends a cold front through the area. The front looks to approach the Mississippi River Friday evening then work through central Illinois during the overnight hours. The highest risk for severe weather is currently expected just west of here where instability and shear will be strongest during a diurnally favorable time. However, sufficient CAPE/shear parameters through the overnight hours could still support the development of scattered severe storms. Temperatures turn much cooler by the weekend. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights look to dip down into the middle to upper 30s, which introduces the possibility for frost. Chances are lower Saturday night due to lingering cloud cover and breezier winds, with higher chances Sunday night when winds are lighter. Temperatures moderate by the middle parts of next week as upper ridging amplifies over the west-central US. Precipitation chances look minimal through much of next week with global models hinting at a wetter pattern setting up by the end of next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clusters of thunderstorms will move east across the terminals this evening, though losing some steam as they get into eastern Illinois. TEMPO periods were refined for updated timing, with potential for MVFR/IFR visibilities in the heavier rain. Following the storms, wind gusts begin to drop off somewhat late in the night, as winds shift from south to west. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA UPDATE...Geelhart DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Geelhart  271 FXUS65 KBOI 160059 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 659 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and a chance of thunderstorms this evening, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight. - Subfreezing morning temperatures tonight, Friday, and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 236 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showing a well defined cold front stretching through central Oregon. The front will push through SE Oregon late this afternoon and across southwest Idaho this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with enhancement possible as it pushes into the west-central ID mountains. The wind gust potential along the front is 30-40 mph with higher end gusts of up to 50 mph from stronger showers/storms. Colder air will be quick to move in behind the front tonight, allowing for a changeover to snow down to valley floors. This will mostly impact the western Magic Valley where showers linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise lower elevations dry out behind the front overnight while mountains see a continued chance of snow showers. Light accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are expected across mountain valleys through mid-morning Thursday while higher elevations pick up an additional 3 to 8 inches of snow. In the Snake Plain temperatures will drop to around freezing Thursday morning so have opted to go with a Freeze Warning. The highest confidence for freezing temperatures is across the Upper Treasure Valley (Boise metro and points east) and western Magic Valley. Feel less certain about a freeze in the lower Treasure Valley where continued northwest winds could keep temperatures above freezing, especially near the ID/OR border. Friday is notably cooler with high temperatures around 15 degrees below normal and breezy northwest winds making it feel colder. Even warmer spots in the lower Snake Plain will see wind chill values only top out in the mid 30s to low 40s. With the cold air mass in place have much higher confidence in widespread freezing temperatures Friday morning across the Snake Plain. This will be a colder and longer duration freeze than what we see tonight. Otherwise, Friday is dry across most of the area, with scattered snow showers lingering in the west-central Idaho mountains. Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees from Thursday and lighter winds lessen the chill. Another frost/freeze is possible Friday night, but will hold off on any products for now. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 236 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A ridge building into the northwest region will bring warmer and drier conditions Saturday through Sunday. Saturday morning will still see temperatures hovering near freezing in the lower Treasure Valley and 5-10 degrees below freezing over other areas. Sunday is expected to see peak temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Guidance uncertainty remains over the arrival timing of a closed upper low digging into the region from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Overall ensemble guidance has delayed the arrival to late Monday, with a chance of precip over the SE OR areas. A slight warming trend should stay intact through midweek due to the south- southwest flow expected from this system. For now, precipitation chances will increase to 20-40% area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus generally projects higher precip coverage over the entire CWA on Wednesday as the low passes over the area. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 652 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A cold front continues across southwest Idaho for a sharp wind shift S-SE to W-NW and intensify precip and wind gusts to 40 mph. MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder with small hail/graupel along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Scattered light snow showers expected late tonight through Thursday afternoon. Surface winds: SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-35 kt, then W- NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 40 kt with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Low-VFR ceilings with showers through 02z. Scattered to broken mid clouds overnight. 30 percent chance of rain/snow showers late Thursday morning through afternoon. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ012-014- 016. Freeze Warning from midnight Thursday night to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Warning from 4 AM MDT /3 AM PDT/ to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Thursday for ORZ064. Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY