630 FXUS62 KCHS 160105 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 905 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section has been updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown. Prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface will continue to support dry weather and above-normal temperatures through Saturday. Highs could approach daily records in some spots. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday, bringing the potential for isolated showers over southern SC in the afternoon. Unfortunately another multi-day dry spell is expected next week. Monday will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Temps will gradually warm back up next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected. Winds will remain light overnight, increasing slightly Thursday morning. A sea breeze is expected to push ashore starting in the early afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered offshore will remain the dominant weather influence across local waters through late week, producing a modest southerly flow regime. Localized enhancement of winds should occur mainly along the land/sea interface, where mid-afternoon sea breeze circulations shift inland. Winds could be highest across the Charleston Harbor during peak heating hours and timing of sea breeze, with gusts as high as 20 kt at times. Latest guidance still indicates a cold front pushing across the coastal waters on Sunday, supporting enhanced winds and building seas across local waters Sunday night and Monday. Northerly winds should gust up to 25-30 kt across most waters, although a brief period of gale force gusts are possible across outer Georgia waters Monday. Seas could also build to 6-9 ft, largest across outer Georgia waters as well. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most waters, and a Gale Watch could eventually be needed for outer Georgia waters. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday due to the combination of 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds, modest onshore flow, and increasing astronomical influences associated with lunar perigee/new moon. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist this weekend and especially early next week as a pinched gradient associated with a passing cold front supports a gusty northeast wind event along the Southeast Coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 15: KSAV: 92/1972 April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ APT/DPB/JRL  455 FXUS63 KIND 160105 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 905 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible after midnight - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface analysis this evening shows a trough in place from WI to OK. GOES19 Shows convection along and near this trough. Moderate southwest flow was in place across Indiana ahead of this feature. Aloft, vapor shows a plume of moisture streaming into the plains and Ohio Valley. These features were coming together to generate light rain showers across Indiana. CAPE across central Indiana has become rather limited per SPC mesoanalysis pages and recent radar returns also reflect that as rain intensity across central Indiana the past few hours has diminished. Looking farther west, stronger convection was found over MO and IA. CAMs continue to struggle with the timing and evolution of these waves beyond a few hours out. Nonetheless, the convection upstream is still projected to push eastward toward Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings also trend toward some deep saturation overnight as these feature pass. Due to less favorable instability across our area, stronger storms are not expected. Caveat remains a 40knt LLJ that will be present overnight. Thus will use relative low pops through about 07Z, mainly across the western area, and then higher pops thereafter as the main forcing from the west looks to arrive. Given your clouds, rain and good mixing on southerly winds, lows in the middle 60s are expected. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a weak MCV moving across northern Indiana and a broader surface low currently across Iowa. This system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet. As the LLJ ramps up this evening into tonight, thunderstorms are expected with the potential for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Through Tonight. The latest water vapor imagery and regional radar mosaics highlight an MCV currently moving through northern Indiana. This feature is expected to remain north of the forecast area with a dissipating boundary closer to the I-70 corridor. Recent high-resolution model guidance keeps the convection this afternoon north of the forecast area associated with the MCV with additional development across Missouri and western Illinois towards 18-20Z as skies gradually clear and instability increases. Diabatic heating is already pushing temperatures into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. This environment should yield MLCAPE values of 1200 to 1800 J/kg by peak heating. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts will be sufficient for organized multicellular structures if convection can hold together as it moves further into Indiana after 00Z. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. High DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates will support efficient downward momentum transfer in collapsing cores. A secondary round of convection is likely as the LLJ cranks up to 40-50 kts after 06z. This will sustain elevated convection through the overnight hours, though the severe threat should gradually wane as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset. Thursday through Friday Night. The aforementioned MCV is forecast to exit to the east by late this evening, leaving behind a trailing surface trough. While scattered showers remain possible on Thursday, the overall trend will be toward drying as subsidence increases across the region. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the low to mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday. GEFS and EPS output shows high confidence in a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies, and ensembles are in good agreement on a strong cold front crossing Indiana during peak heating. Given the robust dynamics associated with this system, another round of severe weather is possible, although timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions still need to be resolved. On the backside of the front, a 1030mb surface high will slide south from Central Canada. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night and Monday night are currently projected to be in the low to mid 30s. Those with sensitive vegetation should prepare for potential frost or freeze headlines as the seasonably cold air settles in. The EPS members suggest a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to southwesterly flow and more tranquil conditions to start the mid- week period. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. - Low chances for TSRA this evening, more likely after 08Z - MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs during any TSRA Discussion: VFR conditions remain across the TAF sites this evening as mid and high cloud continue to stream across Indiana within the southwest flow aloft. A wave of weak convection passing across Indiana will bring some light rain showers and isolated thunder to IND/HUF and BMG this evening. More organized showers and storms will be possible overnight as a cold front over the plains approaches and combines with a moderate LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest deep saturation overnight as this wave passes, but CAM's haphazard guidance is not building confidence on precise timing or locations. Thus VCSH windows have been used for much of the night. As the front passes on Thursday morning, a VFR conditions will become firmly set as winds shift to the WSW. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...White  074 FXUS61 KLWX 160115 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory expired. No significant changes to the forecast tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. - 2) Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as elevated fire weather conditions persist through Saturday. Mild conditions tonight with forecast low temperatures near average mid April highs. Only thin high clouds are expected as showers/storms remain well to the north. Hot conditions continue Thursday with high temperatures similar to today. Precipitation chances increase as a cold front approaches the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early Friday, but rain amounts will be meager at less than 0.10" for any given area. Saturday looks to be the last day of well above normal temps before a stronger cold front arrives. A deep upper-level trough centered over the northern Great Plains will form later this week, and will begin to make its way towards the East Coast by late this weekend. The 12z model runs are currently well aligned on a Saturday night into Sunday timeframe for a strong cold front stemming from this trough to track through the Mid-Atlantic. After several days of near- record temperatures in the 80s and 90s, expect a sharp drop in daily highs once this system moves through, with early model runs suggesting a 10-20 degree overall drop in temperatures between Saturday and Monday. Widespread rainfall is likely to accompany this front; thunderstorm chances also return at this time. High pressure moves into the area afterwards, allowing for cooler temperatures to persist for a bit once this system moves offshore. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather concerns return early next week as winds gust in the wake of a cold front. Behind a strong cold front late in the weekend, much drier conditions and gusty northwest winds overspread the region. While precipitation is likely with the frontal passage Saturday night, it would take appreciable rainfall to diminish the dry conditions across the area. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the area as minimum RHs fall into the 20s. If appreciable rainfall does not occur this weekend, additional fire weather issues may emerge on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue through Saturday as primarily dry conditions are expected across the terminals. An isolated rain shower is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, although chances remain low at this time. Southwest winds Thursday shift to west and then northwest Friday. Winds gust 15 to 25 knots Thursday before diminishing Friday. South winds on Saturday shift to northwest on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Winds gust up to 15 knots on Saturday before increasing to 20 knots on Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during heavy precipitation Saturday night into Sunday as the front moves through the region. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory has expired. A few gusts to 20 kt can't be ruled out along the bay overnight in channeled southerly flow, but was not seeing enough of a sustained threat to extned the advisory. Another advisory could be needed Thursday into Thursday evening as gusty south to southwest winds resume. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters Thursday night into Friday. SCA conditions are possible each afternoon through Saturday as southerly channeling produces a few hours of wind gusts around 20 knots. Outside of that, winds remain generally at or below 10 knots. Some thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend as cold fronts track through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue across most of the area through Saturday. Each afternoon will bring well above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, southwest winds gusting around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values around 25-35 percent. The ongoing lack of rain is going to continue to dry fine fuels, with fuel moistures decreasing a bit each successive day. Local showers and thunderstorms which have occurred across portions of northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia may provide a bit of reprieve in those areas. Thursday looks to be the most fire sensitive day due to a combination of RH values around 20-30 percent and wind gust around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. There is the potential for very dry air to mix down to the surface, this could possibly drop RH values below 20 percent in some areas. If these low RH values come to fruition, it is possible we could be close to Red Flag conditions. Currently, looks to be a higher chance of an SPS as sustained winds remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, which was corroborated with state fire partners. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but coverage will be too low for any beneficial wetting rain. A strong cold front is set to cross the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures into next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether most of the area sees a wetting rain, it could be limited rainfall from this front. Thus, there may be fire weather concerns in gusty northwest flow on Monday. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 15 *New record today Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F* (1941) 65F (2023) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F* (1967) 62F (2023) Baltimore (BWI) 88F* (1941) 65F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F* (2024) 67F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F* (1941) 63F (1967) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F* (2024) 68F (1941) Annapolis (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 85F* (1960) 61F (2023) April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/SRT AVIATION...ADS/AVS/SRT MARINE...ADS/AVS/SRT  525 FXUS63 KFGF 160138 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 838 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average highs Thursday afternoon with near critical fire weather. - A narrow swath of snow is expected Thursday night/Friday morning but the exact location and ceiling of amounts remains uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in northwestern MN, so updated POPs to include a mention near Lake of the Woods. The activity should move off to the east and diminish before midnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Current split flow aloft begins to transition to SW flow through Thursday afternoon as a PNW trough deepens and moves east into the northern plains by Friday evening. Along with this troughing will be preceding seasonally strong thermal ridging (>98th percentile Thursday evening) which will push Thursday high temps to near records but coming up a few degrees short for most. This also brings near critical fire danger due to minimum RH's of 25 to 30 though winds less than 30 mph will temper the threat, more on this below. Behind the heat on Thursday comes a strong cold front with temps crashing from the 70s/80s to 30s/40s for Friday bringing a chance for snow to the area. Ridging returns for the weekend with highs slowly rebounding by Sunday into the 40s for all with 50s/60s likely for next week. - Thursday Heat/Fire Weather With anomalously strong thermal ridging across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota up into the Red Lakes expect the warmest day of the year so far. Highs will widely reach from 70 to 80 from Valley City to the Red Lakes and points south. A few may top 80 but that only looks to be about a 10% chance from Lisbon to Wadena and south. With the warm temps RH will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range (1pm to 8pm) but winds are only expected to be southerly at 20kts gusting 30kts at the worst during these low RH periods (noon to 5pm) meaning there is a short 4-5 hour temporal overlap and even smaller spatial overlap (really just the southern Red River Valley). Overall this keeps us short of Red Flag Criteria but to enough support near critical messaging. HDWI does have the area of concern reaching the 90th percentile and and ERC in the mid 20s. Aberdeen to our south will have a Red Flag Warning in effect for tomorrow with conditions becoming more of the near critical variety in our far south. Wouldn't rule out sites meeting Red Flag conditions for a short duration but at this point a RFW does not seem warranted with an SPS in effect for the MN counties of concern. Still recommend caution if burning. - Snow chances Later in the day on Thursday the troughing moves more directly overhead with decent FGEN from 850-700mb and favorable temperature profiles for snow. Using lessons learned from this winter and looking at the EC AIFS ens the favored corridor for any accumulating snow will be from south central ND into the northern Red River Valley and far northwest MN. Overall there is a 50% chance for a quarter inch and 30% for a half inch or more which certainly supports more than nuisance amounts of snow. Guidance suites vary significantly on whether they keep it snow vs rain though. HREF snow probs are as high as 50% for a narrow 30-50 mile wide swath of 3 or more inches, whereas the NBM and REFS have barely a 20% chance for even 1 inch. Which is right you may ask? Looking at the WPC super ensemble there are of outliers that of course have 4" or more (very low probability) but the majority at any given point are 0-2" with most likely getting only a few tenths (narrow band of heavy snow with light snow on either side). Therefore there is still considerable uncertainty on where the band set up and even how much of it falls as snow but there is high confidence a band of 0.2 to 0.4" of QPF will fall somewhere. This brings at least a 30% chance for winter impacts with the potential for a winter weather advisory to be warranted by sometime tomorrow. Later on in the period there is nothing that immediately grabs the attention for potential hazards but given the uncertainty that spring patterns can bring, with a range of hazards possible, it is unlikely to be truly quiet for an extended period of time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A fairly thick layer of high clouds moving through northeastern ND, and some mid level cumulus from KBJI down to southeast of KFAR. A few showers developing along the trough axis north of KTVF but should stay out of the way of our airports. Some variations in mid and high clouds, but conditions should stay VFR throughout the period. A few model runs try and develop some fog along the stalling trough axis later tonight, but looking at the whole ensemble there is a 20 percent chance or less of any vis below 1/2 mile. Winds will be the main aviation impact, as a cold front moves down towards the trough axis currently over the central forecast area and then stalls out tonight. The MN airports and KFAR will see some southerly or southwesterly winds as the boundary wobbles nearby, while KGFK and KDVL will be mostly northwesterly shifting to the northeast with gusts above 25 kts tomorrow afternoon. Front should eventually make it down to KFAR and KTVF by the tail end of the TAF period tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT