289 FXUS62 KKEY 160200 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the rest of the week, and into the beginning of next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the area once again this evening. At the surface, the center of the ridge is centered across the central North Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida and the Gulf. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Florida Keys are recording northeast to east breezes near 15 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 0.65 to 0.80 inches throughout the Florida Keys. This places the PWAT values below the 10th percentile for the date. KBYX radar has been void of any activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly stratocumulus across the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very dry atmospheric profile throughout the entire column with a stout inversion just above 875 mb. The sounding also shows general unidirectional wind flow with height. The sounding measured a PWAT value of 0.72 inches which is below the 10th percentile for the date. The dry atmosphere remains across the Keys for overnight. Rain chances have been removed from the forecast for the overnight as a result of the vast dry air in place across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through the next several forecast periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will slacken Thursday through Sunday. A new high pressure will slide eastward Sunday night into Monday, allowing for another round of freshening breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Dry air will continue to dominate the Keys with nil rain chances a result. Near surface winds will remain mainly easterly between 7 to 12 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 72 83 74 / 0 10 0 10 Marathon 81 72 82 74 / 10 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  431 FXHW60 PHFO 160205 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 405 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands, supporting light and variable winds with chances for light, brief showers into Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from Thursday night into Saturday. Low pressure passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week, with a possible increase in shower chances for at least portions of the state. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 This afternoon, mid- and high clouds associated with the subtropical jet aloft continue to stream across the islands. At the surface, weak southeasterly flow is prevailing, which has allowed for afternoon sea breeze-induced buildups of low clouds along select leeward and interior locations as well. With that said, rainfall has been quite light and sparse today, with 12 hour totals as of press time showing largely a couple hundredths of an inch at most. Light winds will linger into Thursday, maintained as low pressure north of the islands and the trailing front north of the islands moves northeast farther from the islands. Expect daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes through Thursday, with building clouds and brief showers over island interiors during the afternoon hours, followed by clearing each night. High pressure passing far north of the islands from Thursday night into Saturday will allow moderate easterly trade winds to briefly return to the region. These moderate trades will likely be strong enough to limit sea breeze development to terrain sheltered areas of the islands. Increasing stability and subsidence will also coincide with this period, initiating a slight drying trend. Global models continue to suggest that a low pressure system will develop north of the state by Sunday, though there remain some differences in timing and location. Winds will also veer back southerly across the islands, drawing moisture northward in the vicinity. As the previous discussions have mentioned, as of now the low appears to track far enough north to limit heavy rain potential over the islands, though increasing instability and shower chances are possible during the second half of the weekend and into the first of next week. While moisture availability appears to be a limiting factor at this time, upper troughing (and an eventual upper low) developing over the state, and at least some modest vertical motion during the first half of next week, warrant keeping an eye on the forecast for now. && .AVIATION... Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly VFR through Thursday. Bands of mid-level precipitation continue moving northeast across the area this afternoon, but are not expected to create MVFR conditions. Generally light southeast winds today will become more easterly overnight and Thursday as trades return. No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing to the west maintains gentle to locally moderate ESE winds through Thursday. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters into the weekend. A small, short- period, NW swell diminishes into Thursday and remains subdued through the weekend. A small, medium- period, S swell will boost surf along S shores through Friday then lower over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. Low pressure advancing S along the W coast of the US next week sends a small, medium period NE swell toward the islands by midweek. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Vaughan AVIATION...Parker MARINE...JVC  985 FXUS65 KRIW 160210 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 810 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southwest wind continues tonight. Lower elevation rain in western valleys will transition to snow tonight. Snow will continue across western mountains. - Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread morning lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 1PM/19Z radar imagery shows light snow showers over the Tetons, indicating that the first push of Pacific moisture, associated with the winter weather system, has arrived. Expect only rain across Jackson Valley and Star Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. Snowfall rates for the northwest mountains and the Wind River Mountains will increase by 6PM MDT today as the upper level trough begins to push into the Northern Rockies, with moderate to heavy snow expected. Anticipate winter travel conditions across Teton Pass, Togwotee Pass, and South Pass with snow and gusty 30 to 50 mph winds. As for the western valleys, temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing until after midnight tonight. This means that rain will chance over to snow after midnight as well. Expect only light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for the western valleys through Thursday night. As mentioned in the morning discussion, precipitation will spread east across the state during the day on Thursday as the potent cold front pushes east. Expect precipitation to begin as rain ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 50s. On Thursday, the cold front is expected to pass through sometime in the noon to 3PM timeframe for Johnson County and 3PM and 7PM timeframe elsewhere and quickly drop temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow due to the quick temperature drop during these timeframes. Also, widespread windy conditions are expected due to the tight temperature gradient both ahead and behind the front. Gusty 30 to 50 mph are forecast for most low elevations. Near and in Buffalo, northerly gusts of 60 mph are possible behind the front Thursday night. Although snow amounts for Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties are in the generally in the 1 to 5 inch range, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas due to wind and snow. The gusty 30 to 50 mph winds combined with light snow will no doubt cause reduced visibilities and periods of hazardous travel. Additionally, due to the strong temperature drop with the cold front, and thus increased frontogenesis, convective snow bands/snow squalls are possible across eastern Fremont, Johnson, and Natrona Counties along the front Thursday evening and overnight. This banding could also occur across eastern Sweetwater, including along I-80, but confidence is too low to include this area in the hazard. Any snow squall or convective snow band will cause sudden drops in visibility and create very hazardous travel conditions. Confidence remains very high (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or less) Friday morning as well. It is necessary to note that Winter Weather Advisories have also been issued for the Bighorns, Casper Mountain, and the Rattlesnake Mountains for the same reasons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions across nearly all terminals to start the TAF period. KJAC is the only exception as showers begin to move into the area leading to lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions. A nearing disturbance will bring rounds of precipitation to western terminals and increased winds to nearly all terminals this TAF period. KJAC as mentioned earlier will see showers through the evening. There will be some spotty showers after 02Z Thursday with another round of precipitation likely by 09Z. By this time temperatures should drop to near or below freezing transitioning from rain showers to snow showers. Winds remain elevated for the start of the period at nearly all terminals with gusts of 20 to 35 knots possible through the evening. Winds decrease slightly after sunset with breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots persisting through the overnight. A cold front begins to enter the state Thursday morning which will bring precipitation chances to KCOD, KPNA, KBPI, and KJAC around the end of the TAF period. Winds will start to increase ahead of the frontal passage with many terminals seeing winds increase by around 15Z Thursday. Aside from increasing winds all terminals will likely see lowering ceilings around this time. Mountain obscuration will be persistent through the TAF period especially across western mountains with obscuration increasing by the end of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Dziewaltowski/Rowe  191 FXUS61 KCAR 160213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1013 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -10 PM Update: Dense fog advisory has been issued for the northern half of the forecast area with several observations reporting less than a quarter mile visibility. -730 PM Update: Added drizzle in across the forecast area based on forecast soundings ahead of the more stratiform rain tonight, and increased to areas of fog throughout the CWA as the low level inversion holds strong. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. 2) Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below freezing temperatures return Sunday night through the middle of the week. Snow showers with light accumulation is possible Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system developing in the northern Great Plain is expected to track towards the Great Lakes Saturday, then move into Canada Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to sweep through the region Sunday. Sunday morning should begin with rain and continue through the afternoon. The cold front should exit the area by early Sunday night, switching winds to NW flow. Ample cold air advection is expected to drop temps to below freezing after midnight on Sunday night. This should switch any remain precip to snow. By Monday, temps will increase in the south, switching snow back to rain, but snow should remain in the north. Cold temps should remain to the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Locally dense fog is possible along the Downeast Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Moist air mass remains in place overnight through Thursday. This will result in the possibility of some locally dense fog developing late tonight into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tonight...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings, fog, drizzle, and scattered showers. Winds light and variable. Thursday through Thursday night...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and scattered showers. Improvement to MVFR possible KBGR/KBHB for a brief period Thursday afternoon. Light SE wind. Friday...AM IFR/LIFR due to RA/FG becoming MVFR during the day with VFR possible late day. N-NE winds around 5kt. Fri night expecting possible BR/FG and VCSH especially at southern terms. NE winds 5kt or less. Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible especially at BGR and BHB. SE winds 5-15kt. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with RA likely. S winds 10-15kt gusting to 20kt shifting SW late day. Monday...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. Visibility will fall to 1 NM or less at times tonight through Thursday morning in fog. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday is the next chance of SCA winds/seas. Rain/fog may reduce vsby Friday then again on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ001>006. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AES/TWD/ARL AVIATION...AES/TWD/ARL  000 FXAK68 PAFC 160227 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 627 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday afternoon)... Overall forecast picture remains on track, though there have been some changes to the finer details. Generally expect the cloudier, wetter, and more unsettled pattern to continue, with mostly mild impacts. The biggest hazard we're monitoring is the potential for long duration light snow along the Richardson Highway towards Isabel Pass, with snow amounts on the order of 6+ inches over the course of 1-2 days. There's also uncertainty regarding an upper level trough and associated surface low moving near Eastern Kenai Peninsula from tomorrow into Friday. While this storm is fairly weak, model differences in the speed and track of this system are leading to lower forecast confidence regarding wind speeds and precipitation timing/amounts, especially for the Cook Inlet corridor from Kachemak Bay north into Anchorage and Mat Valley. -KC && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:)... A weak low pressure system in the northern Bering is promoting widespread rain/snow showers over much of the marine areas, including the Pribilof Islands this afternoon. This will push into the Southwest coastline this evening, leading to widespread precipitation across the southwestern mainland. Precipitation will be largely snowfall from Togiak north, and a rain/snow mix or plain rain from Dillingham south. Precipitation will linger in this area through Friday afternoon. A strong North Pacific low rises into the Western Aleutians on Friday. Storm-force winds as well as heavy mixed precipitation and rainfall are expected to impact the from Atka to Shemya. With the low center expected to cross the Aleutians near the Dateline, communities near Adak will see a stronger southerly winds, while Shemya will see strong northerly winds. The low will move northeastward through the Bering, spreading a large swath of precipitation over the weekend. Gale force winds will spread eastward, approaching Unalaska as well as the Pribilof Islands by early Friday evening. A small period of blowing snow may impact the Pribilof Islands early Saturday before temperatures warm. There are still uncertainties regarding the exact strength and track of this low, so changes in the forecast are likely as the low approaches. -CL/JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... An active pattern persists Saturday through Tuesday. An unseasonably strong North Pacific storm will have crossed into the Bering Sea on Friday, bringing heavy rain and storm-force winds to the Aleutian Chain as far east as Unalaska; meanwhile, precipitation continues across Southcentral Alaska, maintaining cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday (some areas may see a short respite late Saturday). By Sunday and into Monday, the low in the Bering Sea will merge into the broad low-pressure system anchored over Mainland Alaska, pulling cooler air back into the region from the north and spreading moderate precipitation across Southcentral; precipitation will likely change into a rain-snow mix across southern Alaska. While specific timing remains unclear at this time, the overall pattern suggests continued unsettled weather for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska with temperatures likely dropping below seasonal averages. AB && .AVIATION... PANC...Light snow will gradually wind down after 02-03Z this afternoon with visibilities improving; however, a few isolated showers will linger into the overnight hours. Ceilings will also improve to MVFR/VFR by this evening and continue through early afternoon Thur before decreasing as precipitation works back into the region. && $$  653 FXUS61 KOKX 160231 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1031 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region. H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain. Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A front will remain stalled to our north with waves of low pressure passing along it through the TAF period. VFR. Showers and thunderstorms impacting KSWF, KBDR, and possibly KGON should clear late tonight. We'll see another shot at MVFR in showers (with possible thunderstorms) tomorrow, but not until the evening. Winds will be light and variable in many spots tonight, then increase again on Thursday to WSW 8-15kt with some gusts to near 20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday: VFR. Gusty S winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD/DBR AVIATION...BR MARINE...MD/DBR  494 FXUS63 KFSD 160236 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 936 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts will lead to a critical fire danger on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for south central and southeast South Dakota, far northeast Nebraska, parts of southwest Minnesota, and parts of northwest Iowa. Elevated fire danger will persist through Friday. - A strong cold front moves through the area on Friday. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of Highway-14 as precipitation exits the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet conditions persist across the area this evening. After looking at the latest guidance, confidence has increased in upgrading the current Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning on Thursday. Latest REFS shows wind gusts reaching 25 mph for the majority of the Watch area. The HREF is a bit weaker though both of them show winds reaching critical thresholds towards the 90th percentile of their available data. Think that this makes sense given the deep mixing that will be in place tomorrow. With deeper mixing in place per latest BUFKIT soundings, slightly stronger winds can be mixed to the surface, thus reaching critical fire danger levels. Any fire danger will come to an end during the evening hours as temperatures cool and humidity increases. Friday remains on track to be a mainly dry day as a cold front is expected to quickly push through the area. While any appreciable severe weather chances will remain off to the southeast of the area, there could still be a few showers that develop along the elevated portion of the front. Winds are expected to remain breezy in the post frontal airmass with northwest gusts up to 30-40 mph expected throughout the day. With cooler temperatures in place, humidity values will not be as low, though down to about 30-50%. The lower humidity and stronger winds will lead to elevated fire danger across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions begin the TAF period. A few light showers persist across parts of the area. Have added a PROB30 group to KSUX to begin the period to take these light showers into account. Otherwise a CU field that has developed will wane with the setting sun. Winds will go light and variable for a brief period of time tonight before beginning to pick up out of the south. Skies are expected to remain clear for the day tomorrow with winds further veering to out of the southwest. Winds will also strengthen tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to about 25 knots expected. The breezy winds will finish out the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds remain light across the area this afternoon, so fire weather concerns are not expected into this evening. South- southwesterly winds will increase on Thursday as a storm system deepens off to our west. Relative humidity values look to drop as low as 15-20% across the area in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s. This dry air will combine with gusts of 25-30 mph to lead to critical fire weather conditions across a large part of the area. For this reason, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for south central and southeastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska to a Red Flag Warning. A little uncertainty remains on how far east the strongest winds make it, but enough confidence to issue a Fire Weather Watch for parts of southwest Minnesota into adjacent areas of northwest Iowa where RH values will drop to around 20-25%. Farther south to the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa, went with a Fire Weather Watch instead of a Red Flag Warning due to uncertainty regarding how much rain we see down there today. If we could get more of a steady rain develop and/or a couple of thunderstorms move through this afternoon, that may preclude a greater fire danger despite the low RH and breezy winds expected. Winds remain elevated and even increase on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and turns winds from the south to out of the northwest. Drier air will filter in behind this front, dropping RH values by Friday afternoon. This will lead to a primarily wind driven high to very high GFDI across the area; however colder temperatures moving in and cloud cover precludes a greater fire weather threat at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040- 050-052>071. MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ071-072- 080-089-097-098. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ001-012- 020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...Meyers DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers FIRE WEATHER...Samet