305 FXUS63 KBIS 160302 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1002 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 We slowed down the arrival of clouds and also precip chances just a bit late this evening and overnight. Also lowered pops a little, limiting likely pops to right along the International Border. There remains a signal for freezing precipitation along the border in the north central so will have to monitor but qpf looks to be very light so impacts should be minimal if this trend holds. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No changes needed to the early evening update. Mid and high clouds working their way east across the state. Mild temperatures and generally light winds into the early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border. A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible. Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period across most of western and central ND through the 00Z TAF period. The exception will be the far northwest and north central, along the International Border, where MVFR ceilings will approach from the north and may include KXWA beginning around 21 UTC. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected, but ceilings will be lowering to low VFR across the remainder of the north and west through the afternoon. Generally light west winds becoming light east this evening, then northeast winds across the north Thursday morning with southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area Thursday afternoon, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...TWH  201 FXUS66 KLOX 160309 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 809 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/105 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/135 PM. A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to 2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM. There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well. && .AVIATION...15/2253Z. At 2120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 C. High confidence in CAVU conds for all sites through this evening. Chances that CIG/VSBY restrictions develop after midnight: KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), KSMO (30%), and KSMX (30%) KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conds expected thru this evening. There is a 40% chance of Low-MVFR CIGs (010-015) develop between 16/08Z and 16/16Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...15/805 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Thursday afternoon thru Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued for all Outer water zones. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT/DB SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  821 FXUS64 KLUB 160323 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Warm and breezy with critical fire danger on both Thursday and Friday. - A few storms are possible Friday night off the Caprock. - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry weather will continue through the overnight period and during the day on Thursday as surface flow maintains a notable westerly component, keeping low level moisture well to our east. Flow aloft will gradually begin backing on Thursday ahead of the next upper level system transiting over the intermountain west, but with broad surface troughing set to persist over SE CO and the TX Panhandle which will delay the onset of moisture return across our region. Southwest winds are expected to be a bit stronger on Thursday afternoon compared to the past couple of days, which combined with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and RH values below 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock on Thursday afternoon. Surface flow will finally back towards a more southerly direction Thursday night which will quickly pull some shallow moisture northward into our region by early Friday. As this moisture return occurs, a bit of lift associated with a modest low level jet could be sufficient to generate a few showers or storms overnight Thursday through early Friday. However, this is appearing increasingly unlikely given the rather weak forcing and plentiful convective inhibition in place over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will begin on the humid side, but surface moisture will quickly mix out as stronger southwesterly low level flow develops in response to deepening troughing ahead of a strong cold front descending southward through KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles. Winds will become solidly breezy by Friday afternoon which will bring another day of critical fire weather conditions to most of the region. The above-mentioned cold front is then expected to pass southward through the region near or just after sunset, bringing a shift to strong north winds along with a sharp cooldown Friday night. For the majority of the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage. However, a few storms may still develop off the Caprock Friday night as the front intersects the retreating dryline in addition to increasing upper level forcing for ascent. Plentiful instability and 50+ kt bulk shear magnitudes could result in some of these storms becoming severe late Friday night in this area, especially over the eastern Rolling Plains. Dry and relatively cool weather is expected area-wide throughout the upcoming weekend as a ~1025mb surface ridge builds over the region, with a light freeze not out of the question over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. By early next week, model consensus favors modest upper level ridging building over our area ahead of a deep low off the CA/OR coast. A few weak disturbances beneath the ridge combined with returning low level moisture may bring a few showers or storms to the region on Monday, but the bulk of this activity looks likely to remain to our south and east. Warmer temperatures then return Tuesday and beyond with a dry forecast currently favored through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR and west-southwest winds will continue through this TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southwest winds will strengthen by late Thursday morning and become quite breezy through the rest of the day. Sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected across most of the Caprock Thursday afternoon which combined with minimum RH values in the single digits will result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM Thursday for most areas on the Caprock. Slightly weaker winds off the Caprock will keep fire danger in the elevated category east of the escarpment, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect there from 12 PM to 8 PM as well. Similar conditions are expected Friday, although winds will likely be a bit stronger compared to Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of the region on Friday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30  774 FXUS63 KJKL 160330 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. Record or near record high temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is southeast of a strong area of low pressure working east through the Central Plains. The high is keeping the weather warm and dry through the area. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf to FL area with the axis of this ridge extending north to the coast of the Carolinas to VA. Further west a trough extended through the Central Conus with an upper low over northeastern NE. Another shortwave was over the High Plains of CO to NW vicinity at this time. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was to the west of this trough from the Southwest Conus to the Four Corners region while an upper low was over the BC to Pacific Northwest vicinity with a trough south to CA. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from New England to the Great Lakes to a sfc near the IA/NE border and then south to the Southern Plains. Sfc high pressure was centered in the Southeast Conus with ridging extending into the Southern Appalachians. A few cumulus were in place across northwestern portions of the area where dewpoints were a bit higher in southwest flow in the mid to upper 50s while dewpoints in the south and southeast were in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures for all but the highest terrain were in the low to mid 80s. This evening and tonight, 500 mb heights are progged to trend upward early this evening before falling heights are anticipated later tonight as the upper low in the Plains tracks into WI and nears the western Great Lakes with the trailing shortwave entering the Lower OH Valley. At the same time, sfc high pressure will remain in place from the Southeast to off the southeast coast with ridging into the Southern Appalachians. Some high clouds should pass across eastern KY from time to time in this scenario, but moisture increases late if not during the day on Thursday. This should lead to several hours if not the entire night free of low and mid level clouds per 12Z HREF and eastern and southeastern valleys should again decouple and based on recent mixed dewpoints these locations should fall some 10 to 14 degrees below NBM deterministic values and to near readings that were observed this morning. Ridgetop and more open terrain locations should remain in the 60s. The upper low will weaken to an open wave by Thursday as it treks northeast to the Central Great Lakes while the axis of the upper ridge moves further east of the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. As the trailing shortwave passes by continued height falls should occur over eastern KY on Thursday while the shortwave that is initially in the High Plains moves across the Plains and nears the Lower OH Valley. That second shortwave should cross the area on Thursday evening into Thursday night. On Thursday, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE is on the lower end only peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range with some shear in the 30 to 40KT range for bulks shear. Recent CAM runs bring a few showers or an outflow boundary in from the west near or after dawn with some convection during peak heating. That activity may tend to wane and shift east of eastern KY by sunset on Thursday though some additional activity could affect southern portions of the area later Thursday evening and Thursday night with the second shortwave. This activity overall appears that it will be scattered in nature and rainfall from this will be variable, but generally a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. Locally higher amounts would occur with any thunderstorms and a couple of stronger wind gusts are not out of the question, especially if instability were to be higher than currently anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 00Z TAF issuance with southwest winds generally in the 5 to 12 kts range. The winds will shortly diminish after sunset, though may stay up off the sfc as a touch of LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts during the late night hours. Winds then increase again after sunrise on Thursday as a weather system nears. This will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds arriving that afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...JP/GREIF  837 FXUS63 KPAH 160337 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1037 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values today, and again Friday. - A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance) will move into the area late tonight into Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches. - A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon (30-50% chance) into the early evening (20-30%), and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. - A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Broad scale ridging over much of the country has led to another day with highs in the upper 70s into the 80s with near record to record temperatures (highs or warm minimums) today. Breezy winds have gusted to 20-35mph out of the SSW today ahead of a storm system. Afternoon showers/storms are generally northwest of the coverage area, with a few showers reaching far northwestern portions of the Quad State. Low pressure in far southeast Nebraska tracks towards Lake Michigan tonight into early tomorrow. A decaying line of showers and storms moves through the Quad State late tonight into early Thursday. A few strong storms are possible but only the western edge of the CWA is in a marginal risk tonight. Only a few models like the FV3 show redevelopment of storms Thursday afternoon, so PoPs remain but have shifted lower to the 30-50% range. A marginal risk of severe weather covers the Quad State Thursday due to the possibility of afternoon storms developing on a residual boundary as lapse rates steepen, but residual boundaries have limited model support. Rainfall from tonight- Thursday generally ranges from a quarter to half an inch (higher totals more likely in the southwest, lower totals in the northeast). Breezy southerly winds return Friday with ridging expanding back northward. Temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s, potentially challenging records, and a 90 degree ob or two is possible. Eastern ridging finally breaks down as a strong cold front moves through sometime between Friday night and Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible, with a D4 slight risk clipping part of SW Indiana. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe threat. Another quarter to half inch of rain is forecast (higher totals favoring the NE and lower the SW), bringing the two event total to around a half inch to an inch, which would provide some but limited drought relief. Cooler and drier conditions surge into the area Sunday into early next week as a broad area of high pressure moves across the country. Highs lower to the 60s to lower 70s Sunday, then trend warmer through much of next week. Lows trend similarly, falling to near 40 over the weekend and then warming to the 50s by mid-week. Active weather returns late next week, with significant model uncertainty regarding multiple low pressure systems. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Area of SHRA/TSRA to the west will weaken as it approaches and moves across the terminals. Highest probability for TSRA will be at CGI and PAH with PROB30 groups elsewhere. A break is expected after 12Z before additional shower activity develops at CGI/PAH between 15-18Z. A few guidance shows isolated TSRA development in the afternoon in SEMO and W KY. Confidence is too low at this time to include mention. Winds will remain from the south through the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  906 FXUS64 KTSA 160339 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms gradually wind down into Thursday morning. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday. - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The severe weather that impacted the area this evening should wind down the next few hours. With that said, a few more isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms could continue to develop across portions of northeast OK into northwest Arkansas until daybreak before it totally wraps up, riding along a convergent boundary. Low clouds are expected to redevelop around daybreak, lasting into late morning before clearing. Highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Several CAMs show some isolated storms popping up in the late afternoon or evening, though they disagree on timing, location, and intensity. Without proper forcing this is probably a less favored outcome, but wanted at least a mention of storms as it is possible. If a storm did get going it could become marginally severe. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds will persist through the period with some gustiness in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Warm, humid, and breezy conditions will remain in place Friday as the next storm system approaches the region. The large scale set up is that a fairly deep trough will be moving from the western USA towards the Plains. Meanwhile, a semi cut off low beneath the trough will be moving in tandem towards the area. The southerly cut off low will induce a subtropical jet along with plenty of warm and moist advection. It will begin to merge more completely with the northerly trough, with a very potent upper level jet forming. This jet will be just northeast of the area by Friday evening with strong divergence aloft in addition to the unusually elevated wind speeds. Meanwhile, a cold front will be barreling into the area at the surface. Ahead of the front, the low level jet will invigorate with its own anomalously strong winds. The result will be a hodograph that is both strongly curved in the lower levels and then very elongated in the upper levels. This will occur with PWAT near 1.5" and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg. It is sufficient to say that the ingredients will be in place for severe weather to develop Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Early CAM guidance shows two windows to watch. A few supercells may develop along the dry line ahead of the cold front. These would have the higher potential to be more significantly severe with all severe hazard types. Then, a more consolidated line will form along the cold front. This is when severe wind would be more likely along with more widespread heavy rain. SPC and AI model guidance all pretty much agree on the elevated severe weather potential. Hopefully as more CAMs come into range in the next day some additional details can be pinned down. Behind the cold front it looks much cooler and drier for later Saturday into early next week. Highs will fall into the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. The next chance of storms may be next Tuesday or so, but this is low confidence at this time. Highs could return to the 80s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible for all terminals the next few hours, with the densest coverage shifting from northeast OK towards northwest AR and southeast OK around 01-02Z. The impacts will include lightning, heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, lowered visibility to 1-2 SM, and brief ceilings of 2-3 kft. Storms will wind down overnight. A few additional storms could develop Thursday but were not included in the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in coverage and location. Gusty southerly winds will weaken a bit overnight but remain southerly, returning again during the day Thursday. Low ceilings will redevelop for all areas Thursday morning, most likely breaking up in the late morning or early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 62 83 68 / MMM 80 20 20 FSM 79 63 83 66 / MMM 80 20 20 MLC 77 65 84 68 / MMM 80 10 10 BVO 81 57 83 65 / MMM 80 0 20 FYV 76 60 80 65 / MMM 90 20 20 BYV 77 60 80 65 / MMM 90 30 20 MKO 78 61 82 66 / MMM 80 20 20 MIO 77 60 80 66 / MMM 80 10 20 F10 79 62 84 67 / MMM 80 20 20 HHW 79 64 82 65 / MMM 90 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...06  750 FXUS64 KHUN 160339 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is a low-medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday (mainly afternoon and evening). A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - There is a high (60-80%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Over the course of the near term period, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward from the MO Valley into the eastern Great Lakes within the flow around a dampening subtropical ridge centered across the eastern Gulf. However, along the southwestern flank of the trough, subtle amplification of a secondary 500-mb wave is predicted to occur as it lifts east- northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South region. In the low-levels, a weakening area of low pressure (related to the northern trough) should reach Lake MI by 12Z Thursday before tracking further east-northeastward into southern QC/northern New England by 0Z Friday. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface trough extending south-southwestward from the low will remain to our west through sunrise, although modest elevated warm/moist advection associated with a 20-25 knot southwesterly low-level jet will contribute to an increase in stratocumulus clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain (mainly across the western portion of the CWFA) early Thursday morning. Otherwise, a light SSW wind at the surface will lead to another mild night, featuring lows ranging from the m-u 50s (northeast AL) to the l-m 60s (elsewhere). Partly-mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a few light showers will continue across the region late tomorrow morning, as an outflow boundary spreads eastward in advance of a diminishing area of rain and some embedded thunderstorms to our west. However, forecast soundings indicate that skies will partially clear beginning early tomorrow afternoon, with redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms expected to occur in the vicinity of the increasingly diffuse surface trough (or perhaps a mesoscale boundary) extending from eastern KY southwestward into northern MS. Storm coverage will likely be limited by weak low-level convergence, warranting a gradient in POPs from 10-20%/SE to 40-50%/NW. However, with CAPE reaching 500-750 J/kg as temps rise into the l-m 80s and WSW flow aloft of 45-50 knots providing sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, a few cells producing small hail and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 MPH may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the afternoon hours tomorrow, convection-allowing models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of a trailing outflow boundary (extending from western AR into southern MO). As large scale ascent strengthens with the approach of an amplifying mid-level wave, this activity may tend to evolve into a small but somewhat organized cluster of storms as it spreads southeastward late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening, before gradually dissipating later tomorrow evening as it becomes displaced from the initiating trough. Although the system should be weakening as it tracks across our CWFA, a second round of rain and some thunderstorms may occur early tomorrow evening, accompanied by a risk for locally strong wind gusts (especially across northwest AL). Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible in locations that are fortunate enough to receive measurable rainfall as temps drop into the u50s-l60s. South-southwesterly flow will resume on Friday as a surface low develops north-northeastward (from eastern NE into western Lake Superior) in response to an intensifying trough tracking eastward across southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. With a developing subsidence inversion in the mid-levels expected to result in mostly sunny skies and dry conditions on Friday, afternoon temps will return to the m-u 80s, which may fall just shy of record highs for the day. Overnight lows will drop into the l-m 60s Saturday morning. Latest short range model guidance still suggests that rapid intensification of the northern stream trough will support steady deepening of the related surface low as it tracks northeastward across eastern OT and into northern QC by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, a cold front will spread southeastward, likely reaching northwestern AL late Saturday afternoon and exiting our forecast area by Midnight. After diminishing in coverage during the morning hours on Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the southern portion of the cold front Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and a lingering layer of stable air aloft begins to erode with the approach of the mid-level trough. With mid-level WSW flow predicted to increase into the 50-60 knot range Saturday evening, deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized storm clusters, capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. However, this will likely be more of a concern across northwest AL where instability will be maximized around the time of frontal passage. In the wake of the front, a 2-4 hour window of light rain can be expected, as winds veer to the north and begin to advect a cooler continental airmass into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will be swinging from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the eastern seaboard through Monday. Ridging tries to build in the wake of this through midweek, but a few shortwave ripples are shown to dive into the region from the mid Mississippi River Valley during this time. At the surface, a cold front will have passed to our southeast by Sunday morning, with high pressure from western Canada and the northwest CONUS pushing into the Southeastern states. This feature will largely maintain its hold on the eastern CONUS until it is shunted eastward through midweek by a system sweeping over Canada. For sensible weather for the local area, there may be some lingering showers early Sunday morning from the system that is slated to move through on Saturday (discussed above), but much of the long term period looks to be dry. Although, we will need to keep an eye on Wednesday, as some guidance hints at the potential (albeit low probability) for the aformentioned upper shortwaves to bring some rain to the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is low at this point due to model discrepancies, but stay tuned! Don't pack those jackets away for the season just yet, since it will be fairly cool to start the week. Cold air advection from the high pressure moving in from the northwest CONUS and western Canada will result in highs topping out in the 60s Sunday afternoon and forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night! Monday will be pleasant with highs in the lower 70s with lows in the 40s that night. Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on if you like or dislike cooler weather), temperatures will then begin to moderate once again through midweek. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals thru at least the first half of the valid TAF period, with modest low-level moisture advection (related to a 20-25 kt SW low-level jet) supporting development of a few stratocumulus clouds beginning later this evening. A diffuse sfc trough (extending south- southwestward from a low over the Great Lakes) will enter the forecast area shortly after 12Z, and should support the development of light SHRA during the late morning hours as it shifts eastward. At this point, the risk for TSRA appears too low to include in the TAFs, but a PROB30 group has been included from 13-18Z/MSL and 14-19Z/HSV to address the potential for minor vsby reductions within the lgt precipitation. Partial clearing may occur tomorrow aftn in the wake of morning rainfall, with sfc winds expected to remain from the SSW at a prevailing speed of 5-10 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...70/DD  150 FXUS63 KUNR 160343 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 943 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for Thursday. - Cold front moves through later Thursday, bringing rain/snow behind it. - Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper level analysis shows 500hpa wave/trof east of the Dakotas with abundant convection firing from OK northeast through OK/AR,IL into WI and MI. Upper flow has turned SW over the region as next closed 500hpa low/long-wave trof drops into Pac NW. Noted earlier in the evening a few lightning strikes in ID as lead wave ejects out ahead of this system. At the surface, weak surface low pressure is located across western SD as noted in surface wind field and earlier returns on the KUDX radar. Temps at 03z are still fairly mild, generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s with winds 15 mph or less. Mid to high level cloudiness is streaming over the area in the SW flow aloft. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50 still look to be on track. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions still look to be in store for Thursday across our southern and south central zones, as gusty southwest to west winds set up along with above seasonal temps and low relative humidity. There is some question now about the cold frontal timing, as it appears to be slowing down ever so slightly when compared to earlier runs, but by only 3 or so hours at most. This may be an issue with onset of pcpn probabilities as well as reach of fire weather conditions. Relative humidities still fall into the mid teens during the afternoon hours across the Red Flag Warning area, so right now see no reason to alter. As the cold front comes through, widespread pcpn still looks favorable with many places seeing at least 0.05”, and possibly up to 0.35” or higher QPF. Deterministic models are continue to show a favored snow belt from northeast WY, northern Black Hills and into northwest SD. As previous fcst stated, snow amounts are tricky after warm period, how much sticks to ground and how long it actually snows. Will continue to forego any winter wx headlines attm. Main area of pcpn will move out during the day on Friday, however temps will remain chilly in the Friday and Saturday time frame. Sunday will see some warmer weather return ahead of a more unsettled pattern returning for next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over southeastern SD, with a weak surface trough stretching from northwest SD down into eastern Wyoming. Upper air analysis depicts shortwave over NE/KS region, upper low over the PAC NW, with near west/east flow over the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 60s to low 70s, with light winds. Recent satellite images show mid/high clouds expanding into the forecast area from the west. Elevated to near-critical fire weather parameters continue this afternoon, as warm and dry conditions persist. Thursday will see some areas reach critical fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front, as temperatures reach into the 70s and low 80s, with winds 15 to 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Cold front moves through from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into the evening, bringing gusty northwest winds and chances for rain/snow through mid-day Friday. Any accumulating snow amounts will be tricky given the time of year, and temperatures hanging near freezing for some areas. Highest potential for accumulating snowfall is expected in parts of northeastern Wyoming into the central and northern Black Hills, where NBM probability of 2" or more ranges between 30 to 70 percent. Widespread light QPF is expected, with the highest ranges (0.05" - 0.4") stretching from northeastern WY into northwestern SD. Current model runs show a small potential for low end Winter Weather Advisory headline for some areas Thursday night, but again chances are small. Main precipitation event moves out mid-day Friday, but some light precipitation could linger for some areas (generally Black Hills into southwest SD) into Saturday. After this system moves through, mostly dry conditions return late Saturday through middle of next week. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS through the weekend as well, resulting in a warming trend back to 10-20F above normal. Longer range models point to the potential for more active weather the latter half of next week, but will have to wait and see how model agreement works out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 535 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through tonight. A cold front will move in Thursday, affecting KGCC first (15Z) then KRAP (21Z). Winds will be gusty through tomorrow and shift throughout the day before landing NNW behind the front. MVFR conditions may develop at KGCC owing to rain/snow behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Timing of the cold front as well as mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high- based showers may complicate things a bit by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near- critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ317. && $$ UPDATE...Hintz DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Schweigert FIRE WEATHER...Dye  226 FXUS65 KRIW 160351 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 951 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southwest wind continues tonight. Lower elevation rain in western valleys will transition to snow tonight. Snow will continue across western mountains. - Precipitation (rain then snow) spreads east across the entire area midday on Thursday. Strong winds and snow could create hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially along I-25, US 20/26, and US 287. - There is high confidence (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or below) Friday morning and Saturday morning. Widespread morning lows in the low 20s and teens are expect on Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 1PM/19Z radar imagery shows light snow showers over the Tetons, indicating that the first push of Pacific moisture, associated with the winter weather system, has arrived. Expect only rain across Jackson Valley and Star Valley this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s. Snowfall rates for the northwest mountains and the Wind River Mountains will increase by 6PM MDT today as the upper level trough begins to push into the Northern Rockies, with moderate to heavy snow expected. Anticipate winter travel conditions across Teton Pass, Togwotee Pass, and South Pass with snow and gusty 30 to 50 mph winds. As for the western valleys, temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing until after midnight tonight. This means that rain will chance over to snow after midnight as well. Expect only light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for the western valleys through Thursday night. As mentioned in the morning discussion, precipitation will spread east across the state during the day on Thursday as the potent cold front pushes east. Expect precipitation to begin as rain ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 50s. On Thursday, the cold front is expected to pass through sometime in the noon to 3PM timeframe for Johnson County and 3PM and 7PM timeframe elsewhere and quickly drop temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow due to the quick temperature drop during these timeframes. Also, widespread windy conditions are expected due to the tight temperature gradient both ahead and behind the front. Gusty 30 to 50 mph are forecast for most low elevations. Near and in Buffalo, northerly gusts of 60 mph are possible behind the front Thursday night. Although snow amounts for Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties are in the generally in the 1 to 5 inch range, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas due to wind and snow. The gusty 30 to 50 mph winds combined with light snow will no doubt cause reduced visibilities and periods of hazardous travel. Additionally, due to the strong temperature drop with the cold front, and thus increased frontogenesis, convective snow bands/snow squalls are possible across eastern Fremont, Johnson, and Natrona Counties along the front Thursday evening and overnight. This banding could also occur across eastern Sweetwater, including along I-80, but confidence is too low to include this area in the hazard. Any snow squall or convective snow band will cause sudden drops in visibility and create very hazardous travel conditions. Confidence remains very high (95%+) in a hard freeze (28 degrees or less) Friday morning as well. It is necessary to note that Winter Weather Advisories have also been issued for the Bighorns, Casper Mountain, and the Rattlesnake Mountains for the same reasons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For most of the state, the mild temperatures will belie the abrupt and shift weather shift approaching. Most of the state will again see mild temperatures and gusty winds today, with highs in the 60s. And then the bottom falls out of the forecast. The next winter system is coming ashore along the PacNW this morning, and will already start to spread snowfall into the NW mountains by this afternoon. This snowfall will only increase through the night tonight as the cold air pushes into the state. The main cold front will race across the state during the day Thursday, bringing a stunning drop in temperatures from the low to mid 50s around noon to the upper 30s by 6PM. As the front sweeps through, precipitation will come along as well. Precip will start as rain for the lower elevations briefly, before switching to all snow by early evening. Snow will continue across the state through the night into Friday, continuing through sunset before tapering off. Main forecast issue is how much of the initial snowfall will melt off, due to ground temperatures already being very warm. Putting all these factors together, Have gone ahead and upgraded current Winter WAtches to Winter Storms Warnings for the NW Mountains, including the Wind River Range. Will need to closely monitor the snow forecast for the Bighorns, along with lower elevations of Johnson, Natrona, and Fremont Counties for last minute model shifts for accumulations. As this system sweeps southeast, skies will gradually clear west to east Friday night. The cold pool moving in behind the system is particularly cold for this time of year, and a couple factors will determine just how cold temperatures fall. First is how fast cloud cover clears out, allowing better radiational cooling. Second is if there's any considerable sfc snowpack insulating the cold pool as it moves through. Current forecast is for lows in the mid to upper teens. with clouds clearing sell before sunrise, and snowpack holding for most areas. Current forecast has temperatures in most lower elevations falling below 28 degrees (hard freeze) for 9 to 12 hours. This will have a significant impact on already flowering plant life, animals, lawn sprinkler and irrigation systems, and the like. Please take any and all precautions for a late-season cold snap. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Across western Wyoming rain will transition to snow by Thursday morning. Conditions will hover right around VFR/MVFR through most of the TAF period, but a heavier band of snow is possible (30%) from 09- 13Z Thursday morning, which may drop conditions to IFR. Conditions should improve Thursday afternoon before a snow band moves in Thursday evening dropping conditions back to MVFR/IFR at KJAC. At KBPI and KPNA chances are too low for prevailing precipitation, but there is a 30% chance of some rain showers late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Rain showers will develop at KRKS Thursday afternoon, with some isolated thunder possible (30%). Rain will transition to snow at KRKS late Thursday afternoon, with snow ending by 03Z Friday. A cold front will pass through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with wind shifting from southwest to northwest behind the front. Wind will remain breezy through the TAF period, with strong wind from mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. Mountain obscuration will be prevalent through the TAF period. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals VFR conditions prevail through Thursday morning, but rain will spread east of the Continental Divide Thursday afternoon and quickly transition to snow Thursday evening. Most Terminals will have minimal impacts. KCPR is the exception as convective rain/snow bands will develop Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Conditions will drop to MVFR at a minimum and probably IFR at KCPR Thursday evening once rain transitions to snow. Depending on how intense the bands are rain may transition to snow late Thursday afternoon at KCPR. AT KRIW, KLND, and KWRL PROB30 groups have been added Thursday afternoon for a rain/snow mix. At KCOD and KWRL there will be a better chance for prevailing light snow showers and MVFR conditions Thursday evening. A cold front will pass through Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with wind shifting from southwest to northwest behind the front. Wind will remain breezy through the TAF period, with strong wind from mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. Mountain obscuration will become more frequent once the front passes through Thursday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ UPDATE...Gerhardt DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  666 FXUS63 KAPX 160351 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1151 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and embedded storms through Thursday. Heaviest rainfall is expected later this evening/tonight with the potential for another 1"+ near M-55 corridor. - Break in rain chances Friday before additional showers/storms Saturday. - Much colder temperatures and light snow chances late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Relatively weak troughing will lift from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Ridging will temporarily slide over the region late this week, building high pressure in on Friday. This will quickly be shunted east as strong troughing punches over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. The associated surface cyclone will track across the Upper Midwest into Canada Friday/Friday night, swinging a front across the state on Saturday. Surface high pressure then looks to build in behind this system to start next week. Forecast Details: Light showers have blossomed near Saginaw Bay/Lake Huron across northeast lower this afternoon and are expected to continue into this evening. Additional rainfall amounts associated with this activity should stay under 0.25". Showers and storms currently forming upstream across parts of the Midwest will be the primary concern. These showers/storms will track east across the lake with time this evening. While there's still uncertainty in how this will evolve with time, current confidence is that this activity will work across areas along and south of M-72 later this evening and tonight. Once again, the heaviest rain potential is expected along and south of M-55. Current forecast rainfall ranges from 0.5" to 1" for this area into Thursday morning with the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 1" should any heavier rain/embedded storms track over our far southern counties. This certainly raises additional flood concerns across already impacted areas that are extremely sensitive to more rainfall. Otherwise, areas of fog are likely again tonight and Thursday morning as rain chances continue through Thursday afternoon, although anticipation is that showers on Thursday will be relatively light. Aforementioned high pressure building in will bring an end to rain chances, bringing a pleasant day back to the Northwoods on Friday with sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and even low 70s across interior northern lower and cooler highs across the eastern U.P. and along the lakeshores. Unfortunately for areas impacted by flooding, the break in rain chances will be brief as additional showers and storms are expected on Saturday as the front swings through -- potentially exacerbating ongoing flooding/recovery efforts. A drastic airmass change is in store behind the front, plummeting temperatures into the 20s and 30s Saturday night and lasting into early next week. Forecast profiles currently appear on the dry side, but light snow chances will return to the forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cigs/vsbys will worsen tonight, as low clouds/stratus expands, and as SHRA move in from the sw. Already LIFR at CIU/PLN/APN, and IFR/LIFR will expand into TVC/MBL. Conditions will improve Thursday afternoon and evening. Light northerly breezes. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JZ  912 FXUS63 KDMX 160357 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe storms expended more to the west today. All modes of severe weather possible, with a locally higher tornado threat along the I-80 corridor. - Enhanced Risk expanded for Friday, covering much of the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler over the weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A nearly stationary frontal zone is draped across Iowa this afternoon, with the surface boundary stretching from around Glenwood to Des Moines to Elkader. South of the boundary, winds are gusty from the south southwest and temperatures are soaring into the 70s. North of the boundary, winds are light and variable and temperatures are holding in the upper 50s to 60s. A cluster of severe thunderstorms developed this morning in eastern Nebraska and has tracked east northeastward into our area, affecting areas between Highway 20 and Highway 30 and west of I-35 so far. However, farther south near the surface boundary the atmosphere remains undisturbed and very unstable, with strong deep layer shear moving overhead. As a mid-level trough approaches from the west this afternoon, it will generate additional storms along and south of the surface front that will carry an attendant threat for large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The storms will eventually clear our area to the east this evening, though a few weaker showers or storms may bubble up behind it as the mid-level trough moves overhead. Later tonight through Thursday night, a 500 MB ridge will build across the region and provide a brief respite of quiet weather. Thursday will be mild and dry, with winds coming around to south and picking up later in the day. The strongest winds will be in our northwestern counties, farther from the departing ridge to the east, with speeds of 15 to 20 MPH and higher gusts up around Estherville and Storm Lake on Thursday afternoon. As temperatures warm to near 80 degrees in that area, RH will plummet to near or just below 30 percent, combining with the gusty winds to result in an elevated fire weather risk, mainly north of I-80 and west of I-35. On Thursday night relative humidity will characteristically increase after sunset, however winds will remain brisk through the night and support unseasonably warm low temperatures by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 By Friday morning a deep longitudinal 500 MB trough will be crossing the U.S. Rockies, emerging over the High Plains late in the day. A surface low pressure trough will develop ahead of this system, stretching from around the Texas Panhandle northeastward across Kansas, Iowa, and toward Lake Superior by the middle of the day. A sharp baroclinic zone will develop along this trough, with gusty south breezes ahead of it and stronger north northwest winds behind it providing enhanced low-level convergence beneath a broad region of dynamic lift on the leading flank of the approaching 500 MB trough. Initially a low-level inversion will inhibit convective initiation, but by the afternoon near-surface warming and mixing will erode the cap and numerous thunderstorms will develop all along the frontal zone. SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/KG and 0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 35-45 KT will support strong updrafts and a severe weather threat across a large area, particularly given the magnitude of forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings indicate a deep unstable layer and strong winds aloft (around 50 KT at 700 MB), but generally straight hodographs with little directional shear in the effective layer. Any surface-based storms will be able to tap into modest directional shear in the lowest levels, but the tornado threat remains uncertain due to a relative lack of backed surface winds - certainly any storms moving to the right of mean motion would carry an enhanced tornado threat. In any event, given the strength of the wind fields, linear nature of the convection along the frontal zone, and magnitude of instability in the hail growth zone, damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat at this time. If the storms are able to form an organized QLCS, then the tornado threat may increase accordingly. Overall, any areas of Iowa that are along or east of the front when convection initiates will see a significant threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty in exactly where the front will lie when storms develop, but the eastern/southeastern half of Iowa appears most likely to be under this threat. The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are departing the area late Wednesday evening, giving way to mostly dry conditions overnight. There remains a fleeting chance for a shower tonight, mainly over northern Iowa, but impacts should be minimal. Of greater impact will be the potential for fog development near KMCW and KALO later this morning, leading to lowered visibilities and flight restrictions at both sites before lifting tomorrow. Dry and clear conditions with light to breezy winds out of the south are expected through Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will lead to renewed flooding concerns. Concerns will include possible renewed or additional river flooding as well as flash flooding. Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant within-bank rises on many rivers and streams across the CWA over the next week, especially across the southeast half. Some locations may see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding will increase. Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the risk is nonzero. The additive effect of rain events will result in a slightly higher risk of flash flooding from Friday into Saturday. The most likely scenario through the end of this week will be ponding of water or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Dodson HYDROLOGY...Zogg  061 FXUS64 KBRO 160358 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Key Messages: * Dry and breezy to windy southeasterly continue into Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly above average. * A cold front arrives Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing unsettled weather and potentially at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rain from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. * Daytime high temperatures drop 10-20 degrees behind the front, before warming back into the 80s by the middle of next week. * A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Semi-zonal and southwesterly flow aloft from troughing and shortwaves to the west and and influence from an expanding mid/upper high pressure over Mexico maintain dry and breezy conditions as a series of surface low pressure systems move across the Plains. Friday into Saturday, a cut-off mid-level low deepens and strengthens an associated surface low across the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes while surface high pressure expands across the Gulf. This will tighten a pressure gradient across Deep South Texas, enhancing afternoon and early evening southeasterly wind gusts from 20-30 mph on Thursday to 25-35 mph on Friday. At this time, probabilistic guidance indicates a low (15-30%) chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph across portions of the Lower and Middle RGV on on Friday afternoon, which is not high enough to consider a Wind Advisory, but will keep an eye on it. Breezy conditions persist into Saturday. As the surface low strengthens, a cold front is expected to stretch into Texas by Friday night and is currently anticipated to pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The combination of moisture pooling and increasing lift ahead of the front, followed by coastal troughing and mid-level disturbance(s) behind the front are likely to bring some unsettled weather to Deep South Texas, with a growing potential for more beneficial rain, though will be monitored closely for potential excessive rainfall hazards and impacts. Developing showers and thunderstorms increase chances of rain late Saturday evening to as much as a medium to likely (60-80%) chance by Sunday morning continuing through the afternoon hours. Chances of rain slow drop Sunday night to a low to medium (30-50%) chance next Monday and a low (15-20%) chance on Tuesday. Though there remains time for the specific details to be more confidently established, our latest storm total QPF amounts indicate most of the CWA receiving at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rainfall from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. Slow moving showers and thunderstorms could bring up to 1.5 inches west of US-281, where the NBM advertises a 30-60% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 2.00 inches. Following, drier conditions resume, possibly by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain a few degrees above average, increasing a few degrees into Saturday, with highs reaching maximizing into the low/mid 90s and possibly upper 90s across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Upper RGV, while overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s. Highs could drop by 10-20 degrees behind the front, with highs potentially reaching only into the 70s on Sunday, which is 5-10 degrees below average, or cooler. Southeasterly winds return and temperatures warm back to the 80s by the middle of next week. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southeasterly onshore winds of around 15-20 knots, gusting to 25-30 knots, this evening are expected to diminish to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots within a few hours beyond sunset, allowing for MVFR ceilings to settle across all terminals overnight. Will continue to monitor for probabilities of IFR and adjust the TAFs as needed. VFR and breezy conditions resume by mid-morning Thursday, becoming gusty again in the afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots and higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines are likely across the Laguna Madre during the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday as a pressure gradient develops and results in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) are possible on Friday as winds further enhance to fresh to strong. Winds ease and become easterly Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front arriving late Saturday night, bringing strong northeasterly winds, rough seas and unsettled weather through Sunday afternoon. SCAs are likely. Marine conditions improve throughout Sunday night, though SCEC and lingering chances of rain continue into the beginning of next week, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds resuming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish