019 FXUS66 KLOX 160400 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 900 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/105 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/859 PM. ***UPDATE*** Today was a rather typical day with mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures from about 1 to 5 degrees below normal. Northwest to west winds were below advisory levels through the area, with some breezy spots in the Antelope Valley and foothills. Sundowner winds have developed over the western Santa Ynez Range tonight, but should to remain below advisory levels with gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected. Otherwise, expect to see patchy fog in the Salinas River Valley and possibly the LA Basin briefly during the early morning hours. Going into Thursday morning, winds will increase and turn offshore, with the strongest gusts near the I-5 corridor and Antelope Valley. This will likely lead to warming some warming near the coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories were issued for the Central Coast as afternoon winds increase, with gusts to 35 mph expected. As winds shift to the northeast Thursday evening, they strengthen further, and wind advisories were issued to cover these. Will likely need wind advisories Thursday night for the Antelope Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana prone areas by Friday morning. ***From Previous Discussion*** A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to 2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM. There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well. && .AVIATION...15/2253Z. At 2120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 C. High confidence in CAVU conds for all sites through this evening. Chances that CIG/VSBY restrictions develop after midnight: KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), KSMO (30%), and KSMX (30%) KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conds expected thru this evening. There is a 40% chance of Low-MVFR CIGs (010-015) develop between 16/08Z and 16/16Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...15/805 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Thursday afternoon thru Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued for all Outer water zones. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT/DB SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  119 FXUS65 KPIH 160402 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1002 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful Frontal Passage: A cold front will sweep through the region tonight, causing snow levels to plummet to valley floors by Thursday morning. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the central mountains, the Island Park area, and the Bear River Range, where the heaviest snow is expected. - Wind Advisory Today: Strong winds will continue into the evening, with an advisory in effect for the Arco Desert and Lemhi Highlands. - Hard Freeze Potential: A Freeze Warning has been issued for the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Shoshone zones for Thursday and Friday mornings with a widespread Hard Freeze looking likely by Friday morning. - Strong Warming Trend: Following the midweek cold snap, a significant warm-up is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures rising well above seasonal norms by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Drastic pattern change is underway as a cold late-winter system descends on East Idaho. Satellite water vapor imagery shows closed low off BC Canada coast with moisture plume streaming through Idaho. Shortwave axis visible draped along PacNW coast. Radar shows moisture slowly filling in across East Idaho, but surface dew point depressions remain steep outside of the higher elevation areas, so precipitation may take some time to develop for the Snake Plain and lower elevations. Lastly, winds remain gusty across portions of the Upper Snake Plain region, and a WIND ADVISORY remains in place into the evening. Focus for precipitation through midnight remains across the Central Mountains and Island Park region. Afternoon snow levels around 6500 ft in the Central Mountains rise to around 7500 ft across the southern highlands, but rapidly fall behind strong cold front driving through the region overnight. This brings snow down to valley floors for most areas by Thursday morning. Snow totals still remain strong enough over high elevations to produce mild travel impacts above 6500 ft, so will maintain the current WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY as well. Snow showers become more plentiful during the day Thursday, even at lower elevations, with highs expected to top out in the mid 40s for most locations. Winds remain gusty behind the front, but should remain below Advisory criteria. Additionally, high- res models continue support for 2nd frontal feature/convergence zone late Thursday that will likely help produce the best chance for accumulating snow in the Snake Plain. Road temperatures remain quite warm and accumulations remain below 2" even across the Upper Plain, so at this time we expect minimal travel impacts, and will hold off on additional headlines for now. Potentially one of the biggest impacts will be the cold temperatures following the cold front, beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, especially after prolonged warmer than normal period. Overnight lows throughout the Snake Plain range 28-32 degrees, supportive of a FREEZE WARNING. Given the even colder temperatures for Thursday night, have already upgraded the FREEZE WATCH to a FREEZE WARNING. For the Thursday night/Friday morning lows, the lows are supportive of a HARD FREEZE, with widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s. Given the early growing season this year, these extremely low temperatures are expected to be particularly impactful. We believe that additional headlines will be necessary even into Saturday and potentially Sunday morning, but will address with upcoming packages. Looking into the weekend and early next week, dry conditions are expected with a warming trend into early next week. Overnight lows do rise back above freezing again by Monday morning. Ensemble means support another trough shifting into the western US by mid week next week. Precipitation chances return as early as Tuesday with more confidence by Wednesday. There is quite a bit of spread among the ensembles especially by Wednesday with respect to progression of the trough through the west, so expect some fluctuation in the forecast until confidence increases. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cold front is about to slip through the region. Showers behind the front will likely produce MVFR conditions at times until later in the night when temperatures drop enough that snow showers could produce IFR conditions. Looks like there is a break for a few hours in the morning before the next round of showers arrives for the afternoon. Besides the gradient winds tomorrow afternoon, am beginning to see indications of a few stronger gusts embedded within the showers which we included at SUN since they have the best chances of seeing showers in the afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ051>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ051>055. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...13  776 FXUS65 KSLC 160407 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1007 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures to the entire region with hard freeze conditions likely across most areas above 3000 feet elevation. - Accumulating snow has trended down across most valley locations given that precipitation will be short-lived, but a quick burst of snow will accompany the cold frontal passage. - Strong northerly winds will occur across lower Washington County in areas that gust strong in northerly flow, such as the Black Ridge Canyon. && .DISCUSSION...Latest trends in the model data indicate a more progressive cold front with a shorter lived precipitation band associated with it. Guidance has trended down the QPF totals dramatically over the last 24 hours. QPF totals across the northern mountains, where the highest totals will be, are between 0.3 and 0.65 inches (25th-75th percentile). With a 10:1 ratio we get roughly 3 to 6 inches across the highest terrain. Valleys are looking more like 0.05 to 0.20 which would not translate to much in the way of snow, even with a quick transition to snow, given the warm surface temperatures. Soil temperatures are currently in the 50s with 60s across paved surfaces. All of that being said, the dynamics are still pretty impressive with this cold front so a quick burst of snow along and behind the front is still expected which could briefly drop visibilities and under the heaviest bands could lead to a slush up on roads. Timing of the front has it moving through the Wasatch front between 12pm-3pm and through Cedar City 8pm-10pm. Northerly gap winds will develop behind the front across lower Washington county. So areas such as Black Ridge Canyon and west of St. George will see gusty northerly winds picking up just before midnight and persisting through the morning hours. Winds aloft at 700mb are only ~15-25 mph so this will limit the surface winds, but a few isolated areas could approach 58 mph gusts. The area of greatest confidence will be the very cold airmass (for this time of year) that will filter into the entire area by Friday morning. Most locations above 3000 feet elevation will see freezing temperatures. In fact, most locations will see a hard freeze with temperatures dipping into the 20s and some areas into the teens. This will be enough to damage early season plants and cause damage to exposed pipes that have already been de- winterized. Consider protecting any exposed plants or pipes. Saturday morning will also be very cold with more widespread freezing temperatures. Temperatures will quickly rebound through the weekend with temperatures approaching the upper 70s by Monday as a ridge builds into the Great Basin. This ridge will keep conditions dry and stable through early next week. Another cutoff low will be moving into the west by midweek, but details with these cutoff lows remain fuzzy given the uncertain track and timing of these types of systems. && .AVIATION...KSLC...South to southwest winds will likely prevail through the night, although nearby passing rain showers will be capable of bringing periods of variable winds. Winds are then expected to shift to northerly behind a cold front which is expected to arrive between 14-15z. While rain showers may fill in shortly behind the cold front, the best window for any precipitation will be between 18-21z when it will be cold enough for precipitation to transition from rain to snow. As such, expect a brief period of IFR to low-end MVFR (with a 15% chance of LIFR) conditions with snow during that window. Otherwise, CIGS below 7kft AGL will be likely late morning through midafternoon. By late afternoon into the evening, expect a gradual clearing trend as precipitation ends. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southwest winds will prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming before turning more northerly behind a cold front. This cold front is expected to arrive at KLGU around 11z, KSLC around 15-16z, KPVU around 17-18z, and KCDC around 01-02z. Ahead of the front, occasional rain showers can be expected across northern Utah overnight. Behind the front, precipitation is expected to fill in for a few hours. Snow levels will eventually fall as low as 4kft MSL, allowing precipitation to transition from rain to snow at most terminals. As such, expect a brief period of IFR to low-end MVFR (with a 15-20% chance of LIFR) conditions with snow during that window. Otherwise, low CIGS will result in mountain obscurations near the frontal precipitation band. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130. Freeze Warning from 8 PM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ123. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mahan AVIATION...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  339 FXUS66 KSEW 160411 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 911 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions continue into tonight as an upper low moves across the Pacific Northwest. Cool, dry conditions Thursday and Friday. An upper low will slide southwards along the west coast over the weekend, resulting in the next chance for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Scattered showers continue this afternoon in a post-frontal airmass. Some instability, generally ranging 200-600 J/kg, will continue to result in localized thunderstorms into this evening, particularly along the Olympic Peninsula, as well as in the convergence zone that has developed over King/Kitsap Counties. Small hail, brief gusty winds, and lightning may occur within any thunderstorm. The convergence zone will slowly progress southwards across King County into this evening. Showers will also result in additional snow accumulation at times for the mountains. Snow levels will remain around 1500 to 2000 feet into tonight, with snow for the Cascades Passes. Brief, heavy snow rates can occur in heavier showers as well. In general, precipitation tapers off tonight, with drier conditions developing by Thursday morning. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s for most locations into Thursday morning. In addition to the colder temperatures, skies will clear for the Olympic Peninsula, as well as portions of south Sound. This will help promote frost development into Thursday morning. Have issued a Frost Advisory for many lowland locations across the Olympic and Kitsap Peninsulas. There also remains higher probabilities (over 70 percent) for freeze conditions for Olympia southwards and along the Southwest Interior, for that reason, upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these locations. Will need to monitor the potential for additional Frost Advisories elsewhere, however, lingering clouds are expected for a good portion of the central and north Puget Sound, which may limit any frost. Otherwise, any lingering clouds Thursday morning will clear for some sunshine in the afternoon. Dry conditions then continue through Friday with ridging building into Western Washington. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest Saturday, and then slide southwards along the west coast early next week. There remains some uncertainty in regards to the eastward extent of the associated front over the weekend, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall, primarily on Sunday. At this time, the highest chances for rainfall remain along the Olympic Peninsula, but precip potential exists elsewhere as well. Either way, this system will remain rather far offshore, and impacts are expected to be limited. Slight precip chances remain into midweek as the upper low moves onshore, with the bulk of the energy focused south of Western Washington. Seasonable temperatures look to return early next week. JD && .AVIATION... A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs continue this evening across the area. Scattered showers continue to move across the area, as well a convergence zone over the central Puget Sound. These will all start to ramp down later this evening, with mostly dry conditions by around 12Z Thur. A few showers may linger into the day on Thursday but should remain confined to the mountains. As for ceilings, expecting mostly VFR conditions tonight across much of the area, with the exception around the Puget Sound as the convergence zone slowly dissipates and keeps lower CIGs in the equation through the overnight and into early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions should prevail across the entire region by 18Z Thur through the end of the TAF period with much less cloud cover. Winds outside of the Puget Sound are southwesterly, but remain squirrelly within the sound as the convergence zone begins to weaken and winds swing around from north to southerly. Variable E/NE winds will transition to southerly after around 06Z this evening. Winds will reduce to around 5 kt or less tonight, with W to SW winds prevailing tomorrow, around 5 to 10 kt. KSEA...MVFR cigs continue this evening with the convergence zone nearby. This should slowly taper off tonight but MVFR cigs may stick around through much of tonight into the early morning tomorrow as the clouds from the convergence zone slowly lift and scatter. VFR cigs become most likely after 18Z Thur. Southerly winds will ease becoming 5 kt or less overnight, increasing to around 5 to 10 kt during the day Thursday, and becoming more southwesterly. 62 && .MARINE... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over area waters today. Main concerns with the thunderstorms are erratic/gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Small Craft Advisories continue in effect for the coastal waters for the combination of steep seas 8-12 ft with a dominant period of 9-10 seconds and winds. Although seas have been hovering slightly below 7-9 ft with the latest obs, seas are expected to build later this evening to 10 ft and thus the Small Craft Advisory for Grays Harbor Bar has been extended through Thursday morning. Thunderstorm activity expected to taper off tonight. High pressure will rebuild over area waters on Thursday and seas are expected to decrease below 10 ft, but still looking to remain steep through Thursday night. A westerly push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on Thursday. However, current probabilities are between 30-45% of winds exceeding 21 kt. High pressure will weaken on Saturday and the next system is expected to impact area waters this weekend. Latest guidance suggests winds and waves will remain below small craft thresholds at this time. 29 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Northern Hood Canal-Port Townsend Area. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  741 FXUS64 KOHX 160412 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds will fill in in the area overnight ahead of tomorrow's severe threat. There is a low to medium probability (20-40%) of seeing some showers in the morning, but these would be sub-severe. Later in the afternoon, as surface heating occurs and our temperatures approach the low 80s, lapse rates will steepen alongside a shortwave. This will present a severe threat that is marginal in nature (level 1 out of 5), but still something to watch. While the severe threat is low and looks to be isolated tomorrow afternoon and evening, the main hazards look to be gusty winds and some hail. Some guidance is putting out a complex of storms that will move west to east across the area, however, the models that were showing this have since backed off this outcome in recent outputs. We will have to see as things progress tomorrow, and what things look like to our west once the threat develops, so stay tuned to the latest forecast information. Once the severe threat moves on, Friday will be much warmer. Highs look to get into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, with an isolated rain threat in the afternoon. This looks to be more of a diurnal chance, reliant on the daytime heating of the surface. Regardless, the chances are low (<25%), with the highest likelihood of seeing some drops being in the northwest near the Land Between The Lakes. Unfortunately, neither of these rain chances in the short term look to help us out with our drought. QPF amounts tomorrow are less than half an inch across Middle Tennessee, with very little additional help on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our next rain chance comes on Saturday, with a strong cold front propagating into Middle Tennessee as a low pressure system pushes into Canada from the northern great plains. The severe threat with this FROPA is underwhelming, as the convective activity lags behind the actual front itself. A post-frontal environment is not conducive for severe weather, so I'd be surprised to see more than a couple of severe storms on Saturday, and that's a stretch. Unfortunately, QPF is disappointing with this as well, with amounts over the weekend barely cracking half an inch into Sunday. We'll need a lot more rain that that to bust this drought, but some rain will help water the plants. Surface high pressure sets in post-frontal, keeping things quiet for the beginning of the work week. That cold front will pack a punch, dropping our highs into the 60s on Sunday. Highs will warm into the low 80s mid-week, so don't get too used to the below normal temperatures! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours. A batch of showers with borderline MVFR cigs will move in near daybreak ahead of a of front that may bring additional showers and storms to all terminals Thursday afternoon. High-res models are in disagreement at this time with thunderstorm coverage, so PROB30 groups have been added to the taf to capture this uncertainty. Outside of shower/storm activity, SSW winds will remain breezy overnight with sustained speeds around 10 kts. Speeds will increase after 15Z with gusts up to 25 kts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 61 88 / 10 70 40 20 Clarksville 65 80 61 88 / 20 80 40 20 Crossville 59 80 56 82 / 0 60 50 10 Columbia 64 82 58 87 / 10 60 40 20 Cookeville 61 79 58 82 / 0 70 50 10 Jamestown 59 80 56 82 / 0 60 60 10 Lawrenceburg 62 82 58 86 / 0 50 40 10 Murfreesboro 63 82 58 87 / 0 70 50 20 Waverly 65 80 61 88 / 30 70 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Baggett  223 FXUS65 KVEF 160417 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 917 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing winds and decreasing temperatures through Friday. * Ridging returns over the weekend before another weather system brings unsettled weather to the region next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. The next weather system will be approaching from the north and begin to impact the area form north to south beginning late tonight and then into the Great Basin on Thursday. The two main impacts will be the wind and cooler temperatures. Southwest to westerly winds will average 15 to 25 mph with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range in most locations with some stronger gusts in the higher terrain. The wind advisory that is in effect looks in good shape. Temperatures will be fall to well below normal levels for mid April and only in the upper 60s in the Las Vegas Valley. The cooler temperatures will be short lived though. The strongest winds will be behind the cold front and down the Colorado River Valley late Thursday night and on Friday with north gusts to 50 mph, with isolated-to-occasional gusts to 60 mph near Laughlin, Bullhead City, and Katherine Landing (50% chance). The only other item of note with this system is for some light precip (rain and snow) in eastern Lincoln County where snow levels will be crashing to under 5000 feet. Any accumulation should be less than an inch. A ridge will develop over the weekend and provide notable warming and much lighter winds. The ridge will be in place into Monday before the next system moves into the California coast. There is a lot of spread particularly with the timing of the next system and with these closed lows they tend to linger longer. At this point, south to southwest winds will develop ahead of the low by Monday afternoon and particularly on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain elevated through tonight, with sustained speeds of 8 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the southwest tomorrow morning, with gusts to around 30 knots by the afternoon. A brief period of reduced winds is possible after sunset Thursday evening before a shift to the northwest occurs between 04Z and 07Z, with a few gusts to 35 knots possible with the frontal passage. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of Thursday night. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with SCT to at times BKN skies. Bases are expected to remain above 10kft AGL, with any CIGs above 15kft AGL Thursday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds generally weaken areawide tonight aside from elevated westerly winds at KDAG. Westerly to southwesterly wind will increase for most locations again after sunrise with peak gusts reaching 25 to 35 knots by the afternoon. Northerly to northwesterly winds are expected throughout the TAF period at KBIH, gradually strengthening in the afternoon and evening. A northerly wind shift should occur in the Las Vegas Valley between 04 and 07Z as a front moves through, bringing a few gusts up to 35 knots. Occasional high clouds are possible at times, but VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  890 FXUS64 KMOB 160417 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper ridge over the extreme southeastern states retreats to over the Gulf through Thursday night as an upper trof progresses across much of the eastern states. The upper ridge begins to build back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western half of the CONUS. The large upper trof continues off across the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the frontal passage, light nocturnal winds and clear to mostly clear skies look to favor fog development each night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight until 14Z Thursday. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge look to inhibit the potential for convective development through Saturday afternoon. Deep layer moisture will meanwhile begin to improve on Saturday, and looks sufficient to support mostly slight chance to chance pops for Saturday night as the front moves through, with slight chance pops lingering into Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail through Tuesday with a slight chance for rain returning to much of the area by Wednesday. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s with highs in the mid to upper 80s following for Friday. Saturday will have highs in the lower to mid 80s, then highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the lower to mid 70s. Daytime highs gradually trend warmer through Wednesday to mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows through Friday night tend to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, then trend cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows then moderate by Wednesday night to range from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, then a low risk follows for Friday through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region this evening, gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR flight category after midnight as fog begins to develop across the region. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While afternoon humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels through the weekend, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area due to ongoing drought conditions. For Monday of next week, afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25%, and conditions will be closely monitored for possibly reaching Red Flag criteria. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 65 80 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 56 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$  436 FXUS63 KAPX 160419 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and embedded storms through Thursday. Heaviest rainfall is expected later this evening/tonight with the potential for another 1"+ near Saginaw Bay. - Break in rain chances Friday before additional showers/storms Friday night into Saturday. - Much colder temperatures and light snow chances late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Active southern stream pattern to carry through Friday, albeit with some caveats for northern Michigan. Strongest low level jet dynamics will remain downstate, suppressing the concentration of instability and moisture pooling downstate and points south tonight. Well- defined convectively driven shortwave currently across western Iowa will ride the corridor of SWerly subtropical jet flow, with associated surface low pressure riding the stalled frontal boundary draped across Michigan. Result will be a return of scattered thunderstorms into the day Thursday, particularly across northern lower Michigan. In the wake of this shortwave, a brief window of ridging folds overhead as surface high pressure and subsidence aloft passes over the region, bringing a brief reprieve. This will be short lived as a potent northern stream trough currently over the Pacific northwest will make an eastward advance, forcing ridging and surface high pressure east of the Great Lakes, resulting in the return of more rain and thunder Friday night into Saturday. The backside of this system will deliver a sharply colder airmass with a polar surface high building to start next week, with a seasonable moderating trend commencing with time. Details: Current boundary position generally from Frankfort to Rogers City, with little northward advancement expected over the next 36 hours. This does induce some changes from previous forecast cycles, with deeper moisture content overlapping instability suppressed south. There is potential now for far northern areas of northern lower to completely miss out on rain showers through Friday morning, which is some welcome news for flooding impacts. Light rain showers set to prevail for M-32 and south the rest of tonight and into Thursday. Though if the southern trend in guidance continues, this line may be suppressed as far south as M-72. Lack of instability will limit thunder potential for most... but south of M-55, just enough instability may be present to drive some convection and thus higher rainfall rates, especially closer to Saginaw Bay. As far as additional rainfall through Friday morning is concerned... looking at a general 0.10" or less north of M-72. For those south of M-72, looking more like 0.25-0.50", with localized 0.75"+. The area with the best shot to see upwards of 1.50" of rain is Gladwin and Arenac counties... though that may also get suppressed to the US 10 corridor. So still some monitoring to be had regarding ongoing flooding. The other story tonight will be the prevalence of fog across the region away from the steadier rain to the south. This in itself may limit instability for this afternoon, especially north of the frontal boundary. Otherwise... a break in the action Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Next item of interest will be the system passing through Friday night into Saturday. Occluding and closing off surface low moving eastward across the US / Canada border to our NW will lead to the reinvigoration of the low level jet into the Great Lakes, with another Gulf moisture tap ahead of an advancing cold / occluded frontal boundary. Global models are admittedly struggling with this process... and pattern recognition says this does favor showers and thunderstorms with heavier rainfall across the region. Will have to see how transient this is... orientation of the boundary parallel to the strongest 850mb flow makes me skiddish on saying this will be a fully transient feature. And with potential for heavy rain producing thunderstorms, this needs to be watched closely. Overall, most places probably see an additional 0.25-0.75" of rain Friday night through Saturday night, with localized totals exceeding 1.50". The other issue this system presents is that this time, rainfall may actually make it into eastern upper, a region still nursing a surprisingly resilient snowpack. So hydro concerns may quickly ramp up for our Yooper friends. Beyond this system, a pretty stellar cold intrusion makes an appearance into Sunday with highs falling back into the 30s for the most part... with snow shower chances. Heading into next week, we do slowly moderate back to more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cigs/vsbys will worsen tonight, as low clouds/stratus expands, and as SHRA move in from the sw. Already LIFR at CIU/PLN/APN, and IFR/LIFR will expand into TVC/MBL. Conditions will improve Thursday afternoon and evening. Light northerly breezes. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ086>088-095-096. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...JZ  572 FXUS64 KEPZ 160419 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1019 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1009 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Breezy again Thursday and Friday, and with very dry air will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A cool front moves in Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. - Moisture slips in from the east for a low chance of rain on Sunday over areas generally east of the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies/Great Basin on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. Boundary layer winds of 15-25kts are modeled for Thu with a modest pressure gradient across the CWA. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri ahead of a strong cold front coming down the Plains, giving us a more stout gradient. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. The Wind Advisory for the Sacs remains in effect for early Fri as 700mb winds reach 40-50kts with some mtn wave activity along east slopes. Since winds have trended down a bit for Thu, blowing dust is less of a concern, but Fri could still be dusty as winds shift more westerly. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that arrives early Sat, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds initially. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Early Sunday looks very breezy due to tight isobar packing, especially for west slopes where gusts to 40 mph can be seen, similar to what occurred a couple weeks ago. Low rain chances return as a result of the SE flow Sun, mainly E of the RGV. There remains disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out on Mon as weak ridging translates overhead. A large upper low moves into the West Coast by midweek, returning us to dry, southwest flow. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll become mild again late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds through the AM from W-NW, becoming gusty again Thu afternoon to 20-25kts from S-SW. No BLDU is expected. Mainly SKC gives way to SCT-BKN250 during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. Some fire concerns for Thursday and Friday as humidity continues to lower and afternoon breezes develop. Winds Thursday of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, with a bit stronger winds on Friday as they shift more westerly. Red flag conditions look to be met or close to it on Fri, more so in southern NM where a Fire Wx Watch is now in effect. Near-critical conditions are forecast as 20-ft winds reach 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Strong wind shift Saturday from west to north and eventually east by mid- day, along with cooler temperatures for the weekend. Gusty east winds Sunday with a chance of rain/thunderstorms. Chance of rain continuing into Monday. Back to dry and warm Tuesday/Wednesday. Min RH: Lowlands 7-12% through Saturday, then increasing to 18-25% Sunday and Monday. Mountains 10-20% through Saturday, then increasing to 25-40% Sunday and Monday. Vent rates excellent Thursday and Friday, becoming good-very good Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 35 57 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 76 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 82 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 46 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 70 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 78 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 77 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 38 73 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Wind Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  625 FXUS62 KJAX 160425 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1225 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Near Record Warmth This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values Inland Each Day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread - Fog Potential Each Morning through Saturday - Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F - Elevated wildfire risk - Patchy dense fog along the I-75 corridor/Suwannee River Valley Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues with stacked ridging over the region. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. Near record highs will be possible across inland locations this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90, while an East Coast sea breeze will keep coastal locations a bit cooler and closer to 80F. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds early this morning and again late tonight will prompt patchy inland fog development over portions of NE FL and SE GA, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-75 and along the Suwannee River Valley. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... - Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near record highs The surface high pressure over the FL peninsula, extending in from Bermuda, begins to weaken on Friday as an approaching cold front pushes towards the area late Saturday night. Warm and dry weather persists into the weekend, as southwest flow develops with the high pressure shifting towards the Atlantic. Warmest temperatures of the week will occur during this forecast period as temperatures will be above seasonal norms. Daytime highs will reach into the lower to mid 90s across inland locations, where some locations could match or break their record highs each afternoon. The weak onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Late evening/early morning fog potential as low-level moisture and near calm winds could bring periods of patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - A period of elevated onshore flow behind the front Monday. - Cooler temperatures at the start of next week behind the front. Sunday, a cold front pushes through the area by the evening hours. Another day of dry weather again is likely as the line of showers associated with the front is not expected to hold together by the time it nears the local area, but a few light showers along the coast during the evening hours on Sunday may be possible. Behind the front, a period of elevated northeasterly winds is expected with breezy winds along the coast on Monday. Dry air filters in once again into the area behind the front, continuing the dry weather conditions into midweek. With the fropa occurring on Sunday, there will likely be a gradient in the temperature spread. The warmest temperatures will be ahead of the front across NE FL, with highs remaining in the 90s for one more day, while behind the front cooler highs across SE GA in the mid to upper 80s. By the start of the new week, the fropa will bring more seasonable temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will begin to tick upwards once again by midweek as high pressure settles over the area. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Predominant VFR conditions are expected through the period, though patchy fog and smoke from nearby wildfire (KGNV) may lead to temporary obscuration through the overnight hours. Easterly winds will ease toward calm through the overnight hours, become south- southwesterly around 5 knots Thursday morning 13z/15z and then shift to east-southeasterly during the afternoon hours with the Atlantic sea breeze push. Winds decrease to near calm once again a few hours after sunset near the end of the current TAF period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the weekend, with the flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. A mostly dry frontal passage is expected Sunday Night, then a surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions with the potential for Gale force gusts. Rip Currents and Surf: Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week and into the weekend with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range. High risk of rips and potential high surf advisory conditions expected early next week in strong NE wind surge behind cold frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day and This Week High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations into the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will steadily transition to southerly and then southwesterly by Friday, allowing for the Gulf seabreeze to move further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend. Dry conditions will persist into the next week as another frontal boundary pushes in on Sunday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites: April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967 April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967 April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 79 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 89 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 83 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 56 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  783 FXUS64 KMEG 160427 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return into Thursday, with low confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. - Well above-normal high temperatures continue, with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another warm and quiet evening across the Mid-South, which remains on the western periphery of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to the Central and Southern Plains, and a dryline located from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to West Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show two different areas of showers and thunderstorms, the first area is located along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and the second area is now entering western Arkansas. This convective activity is in association with a shortwave trough moving through the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures as of 10 PM CDT are in the 70s nearly areawide. Short-term model trends suggest these upstream showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken overnight as it approaches the Mid-South late tonight towards sunrise Thursday and encounters a more stable airmass across the area. Rainfall amounts will average up to a quarter inch at best. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the periphery of the upper-level ridge axis over portions of the Middle and lower Mississippi Valleys by Thursday afternoon. There is a low (20- 40%) chance for re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon if the atmosphere recovers adequately from morning convection and subsequent cloud cover. Moderate to strong instability, moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates, and 30-35 kts of shear may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence in occurrence and coverage remains low at the moment but damaging winds and large hail remain the primary threats. The upper-level ridge will build back in behind the shortwave later Thursday evening, resulting in a very warm and dry summer- like day for Friday. Latest guidance continues to suggest near record highs are expected as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Friday afternoon. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Saturday as a cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing a slightly better chance for beneficial rain but not nearly enough to alleviate the moderate to extreme drought conditions. Cooler near- normal temperatures will follow this weekend into early next week behind the front. Long term model trends continue to diverge with the timing of a return of showers and thunderstorms by mid to late next week leading towards lower confidence rain chances next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Predominately VFR conditions will prevail overnight. Light showers will begin to move into the Mid-South at around 08Z and continue through around 16Z, moving west to east. Southwest winds will gust up to 20 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL beginning in the mid- morning hours. Gusts should drop out by 00Z. Diurnally enhanced convection is expected to impact all terminals except TUP in the afternoon. Guidance continues to struggle on timing with said convection, therefore, confidence was only high enough to carry PROB30s. Showers and thunderstorms should clear terminals by the early evening hours. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Moisture will rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be up to one inch at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH  837 FXUS64 KOUN 160428 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Severe storms are possible on Friday. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general, are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest multi-cell and/or splitting storms. Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset, surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values (curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year, a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44. With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, as well. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thursday will remain dry and breezy. The main concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to low-90's. Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning. By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. Thompson/6 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon. With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire. With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s. After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight across the eastern terminals with the potential for IFR ceilings. Ceilings should improve by mid to late morning. Winds will generally be from the south/southeast. These winds will veer slightly and increase in speed by mid to late morning. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected toward the end of the TAF period across the northern terminals. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 82 60 87 66 / 50 20 0 10 Hobart OK 86 54 90 64 / 30 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 92 66 / 60 30 0 10 Gage OK 82 47 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 66 / 40 20 0 0 Durant OK 78 65 86 66 / 60 70 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10  223 FXUS66 KSGX 160432 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 932 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures near normal Thursday with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Winds turn offshore on Friday with northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer with weaker winds for the weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Cooler and breezy early next week as a low pressure system moves toward the California coast, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty in how this system progresses. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Evening update... Low clouds are beginning to redevelop over the coastal areas this evening, becoming more widespread and moving into the western valleys late tonight. Otherwise increasing high clouds across the region into Thursday ahead of an upper level trough approaching the West Coast. This trough will result in some cooling on Thursday with high temperatures near normal. Previous discussion... Of most highlight from this trough late week will be the wind, with strengthening onshore flow on Thursday, followed by offshore winds late Thursday into Saturday. The elevated onshore flow Thursday afternoon will be felt most in the mountains/passes, adjacent deserts, and the high deserts. Wind gusts 35-45 mph expected in these areas, with localized areas up to 55 mph in the mounains and vulnerable mountain passes. With gusts upwards of 40-45 mph in the High Deserts, a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Thursday through 2 AM Friday. As the upper trough pushes southeastward and surface high pressure spills into the Great Basin, winds will quickly switch to offshore, forcing north to northeasterly wind gusts of 35-45 mph in and below mountain passes, locally up to 55 mph within passes. Timing of the flip to offshore looks to be overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with the peak gusts late Thursday morning to around noon. Gusts look to wane by the afternoon hours, with another weak push of easterly offshore winds Saturday. The offshore winds bring in warmer and drier air to the inland valleys, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday, continuing into Saturday. The forecast becomes much more uncertain early next week as global ensembles continue to struggle with the resolution of a large upper trough set to near the California coast Monday into Tuesday. Regardless of the track of this low, temperatures will remain on the cool side to start next week with elevated onshore winds likely. Depending on the track of this storm, some light precipitation may be brought to southern California, but details will have to continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 160445Z...Coasts...Low clouds are beginning to form along the San Diego coast around 1000-1500ft MSL. Low clouds will increase in coverage but are expected to be intermittent SCT/BKN cigs. Low clouds will scatter out 16-17Z. Mountains/Deserts...Strong southwest to west winds are expected after 18Z with gusts up to 30 to 40 knots possible. Winds are expected to shift to offshore after 06Z Friday but will remain just as gusty, spreading along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains. Otherwise...BKN/SCT high clouds AOA 20000ft MSL and VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Wind gusts to reach around 20 kts near San Clemente Island Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS/Munyan AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  547 FXUS63 KGRB 160436 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain/storm arrives from the south later this afternoon and evening. One inch hail would be the main hazard with any stronger storms. - Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate ongoing areal flooding. Flash flooding would be possible in areas that have already received multiple inches of rainfall, or over areas that see training storms. - Minor to moderate flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several rivers. Expect many rivers to continue rising this week, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee River where major flooding has been observed. - Widespread rain/storms will again be possible on Friday. Some storms could become strong or severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rain/storm chances today... Frontal boundary remains stalled out over southern Wisconsin as of early this afternoon, which will bring our next chances for rain and storms later this afternoon into this evening. Par for the course, the main concern will be how any additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding, especially in areas that are already vulnerable. Overall, we're looking at receiving an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF through tonight, with probabilistic guidance showing a 30 to 50% signal for 0.5" of rain over the southern Fox Valley. Reasonable high- end scenario (90 to 95th percentile) would bring amounts in excess of one inch from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore, though this would most likely occur with a slight northward shift of the boundary and training storms. If these amounts were to be realized, flash flood thresholds would likely be met over east- central Wisconsin where soils are already saturated and areal flooding is ongoing. Severe threat for this afternoon looks less distinguished than yesterday given unfavorable placement north of the front and stable easterly boundary layer flow. Elevated instability (300 to 500 J/kg MUCAPE) and appreciable deep-layer shear (50+ knots) sneak into our southern tier of counties late this afternoon, though the threat for any surface-based storms is low. Cannot rule out the possibility for an elevated hailer or two given elongated hodographs and decent lapse rates, though suspect that severe potential would be rather limited. Strong/severe storms late week... Following a brief lull in precip Thursday into Friday, 500 mb pattern then re-amplifies toward the end of the week. Robust trough approaches from the Intermountain West on Saturday as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains, bringing with them yet more chances for widespread heavy rain and strong or severe storms. Southerly flow regime would support decent moisture transport from an open Gulf, with a narrow corridor of 60 dewpoints possible along the leading edge of cold FROPA. Decent instability (~1,000 J/kg CAPE) would favor linear ascent along the front, resulting in likely upscale development into a QLCS storm mode Friday evening and overnight. Main source of uncertainty at this time centers around timing of the front, which currently looks to be late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Regardless, this system looks to be much more dynamic than what we've seen this week thus far, especially with the influence of a 50+ knot LLJ and favorable deep layer shear. Given an ample supply of Gulf moisture, heavy rain once again becomes a concern Friday into Saturday. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a widespread 30 to 50% chance for receiving 1 inch of rain, with a signal (10 to 30% chance) for exceeding 1.5". Locally higher amounts would be possible within convection. As such, flash flood potential would once again come into play Friday into Saturday, where WPC currently highlights most of the state in a marginal Day 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Muc colder air wraps in from the northwest on the back end of the departing surface low on Saturday, resulting in a probable transition from rain to snow across the far north. Probabilities for half an inch of snow currently stand at 20 to 40% mainly over Vilas, so little to no impacts are expected. Temperatures then drop off steeply by Saturday afternoon, bringing highs down into the 30s and 40s for most. High pressure then settles in over the CONUS late this weekend and into early next week, affording us a much needed dry spell. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light winds and recent rainfall will result in areas of fog/low stratus development through early Thursday morning, which has already commenced across central Wisconsin. Conditions are expected to tumble to LIFR/VLIFR in the dense fog. As drier air advects in from the northwest, conditions will improve to VFR from northwest to southeast Thursday morning. Once settled in, VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Following another bout of heavy rain and storms yesterday, widespread flooding continues across portions of central to east- central Wisconsin where an areal Flood Warning remains in effect. Several roads remain closed, especially in areas that received between 3 and 6 inches of convectively-enhanced precip over the past 48 hours. Multiple rivers, namely the Wolf, Menominee, and Wisconsin Rivers, continue to read in minor to moderate flood stage, with the Menominee River now in major flood stage due to the additional influence of snow melt from the Upper Peninsula. Home evacuations are ongoing along the Wolf River. High flows and rising water levels have also resulted in several dams being compromised or overtopped. If you live near a river or stream, continue to monitor the latest hydro forecasts and Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ005-010>013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Kurimski HYDROLOGY......Goodin  787 FXUS66 KMTR 160436 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 936 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Seasonably cool temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast and across the higher elevations through this evening as a deep upper level low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. A dry cold front will push through the region late this evening into Thursday morning. Not anticipating fog to develop tonight but patches of low level stratus are likely as the cold front moves through the region. Early morning cloud cover today is helping to keep our high temperatures cooler with 60s expected across the interior and 50s to 60s expected along the coast. Cooler overnight temperatures are expected Thursday morning across the North Bay where clear skies will allow for enough radiational cooling for lows to drop into the upper 30s. The rest of the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast will have patchy stratus insulation overnight which will keep lows in the 40s. Elevated terrain in the eastern Santa Clara Hills and Gabilan Range will be slightly cooler with lows in the upper 30s. Heading into Thursday we see the return of gusty offshore winds. A deep upper level trough will shift into the Northern Rockies and progress eastwards. While not a classic inside slider, the trough is enough to generate moderate to strong northerly offshore winds across the region. These winds will be strongest across the interior North Bay Mountains, the Diablo Range, and favored mountain gaps/passes. Peak gusts will be between 35 to 45 mph with locally higher gusts possible across the highest ridgelines of the Mayacamas Mountains (bordering Lake, Yolo, and Solano Counties). Fire weather concerns remain minimal due to the recent wetting rains but any residents or anyone visiting the mountains Thursday/Friday should be prepared for gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Gusty offshore winds will continue into early Friday morning before winds dissipate Friday afternoon/evening. The deep upper level trough will continue to progress eastward while a progressive high- amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. As the ridge moves in winds will ease and warmer temperatures will return Friday and Saturday. Interior highs will reach the low to mid 70s while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. The interior Central Coast remains the warmest with highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s with temperatures peaking on Saturday. Morning temperatures will be chilly on Friday with portions of the interior Central Coast dropping into the low to mid 30s (vicinity of Bradley and Parkfield). Unsettled weather returns late Sunday into early next week as a deep upper level trough pushes into the West Coast. This trough will move down from the Gulf of Alaska and is associated with a surface low pressure system moving into Northern California. Cold frontal passage is expected to occur Sunday into Monday with widespread rain across the region. Rainfall is expected to be beneficial with 1-2" across the coastal mountains and half an inch to an inch across the lower elevations. There is a slight (10-15%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons. Temperatures look to be seasonable to seasonably cool in the 50s to 60s Monday/Tuesday. Cluster guidance is in good agreement that a trough will develop but there is still some uncertainty as to when the trough will arrive/how fast it will progress eastwards. It is possible that this system will continue to slow down and the rain window will shift more Monday-Wednesday than Sunday-Tuesday (as it is in the current forecast). No real wind concerns with this upcoming system. Conditions will get breezier Sunday into Monday across the higher terrain, along the coast, and across mountain gaps/passes but it will stay below wind advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A dry cold front is moving through the Bay Area tonight. Some MVFR ceilings are expected before the front moves through and the lower atmosphere becomes better mixed with drier air behind the front. In addition to the clearing skies, strong NW winds will follow the front and persist through Thursday evening. Vicinity of SFO...There is a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings between 06Z and 10Z before a drying trend starts to clear out the lower clouds. Otherwise moderate westerly winds will diminish Thursday morning before gradually increasing through the day. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The front will take longer to reach the southern terminals, and it will be weaker when it gets there. That provides a longer window for MVFR ceilings at both MRY and SNS through the early morning hours. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak front will sweep through the coastal waters tonight. The passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal waters and bays through Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  500 FXUS63 KEAX 160436 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...06Z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with the best chances south and east of the I-35 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. - Another round of severe weather is anticipated on Friday afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. Confidence is higher than average that widespread coverage of storms is expected. Confidence is lower on convective mode, which will have significant influence on what severe weather hazards will occur with the storms. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts. - Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday night may approach the freezing mark in northern Missouri. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern in the short term is severe-weather potential this afternoon/evening. A weak surface low in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with an attendant cold front extending southward through eastern Kansas will shift eastward/northeastward this evening. Prompted by large-scale lift from an approaching perturbation this afternoon, convection is expected to initiate rapidly through late this afternoon (storms already developing in southeast Kansas as of 2 pm). Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have been consistently developing initially discrete convection along the front roughly near the I-35 corridor, growing quickly upscale into clusters/lines as the storms progress quickly eastward/northeastward through early evening. Large hail will be the primary threat with discrete storms, with wind damage becoming more possible with time as storms grow upscale. Wind profiles are generally favorable for splitting supercells (confirming the large hail threat), but mean mid/upper flow is largely parallel to the approaching front. Storm interactions should be frequent as more and more cells develop, so the process of congealing may be quite fast. This would likely mute the tornado threat, but the risk is not negligible. Low-level shear is more than adequate for tornadoes, and LCLs lower from west-to-east across the forecast area (and are sufficiently low everywhere). The good news is that the storms will be progressive, so the flooding risk is low today. The storms should generally be out of the forecast area by 9 or 10 pm, with the rest of the night expected to be dry. With the Pacific origins of today's weather system, Thursday should continue the streak of warm days (highs mainly in the 80s), with shortwave ridging keeping things dry (continuing through Thursday night). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Primary concern is the severe-weather episode expected on Friday afternoon/evening. A deepening longwave trough in the western U.S. will slowly approach the northern/central Plains Friday. A predecessor vorticity maximum will eject northeastward into the Missouri and Mississippi Valley regions Friday afternoon/evening, in advance of a strong cold front moving southeastward from the northern into the central Plains. Substantial large-scale lift will be present (via warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection) as the cold front approaches north/west portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Storms will rapidly develop during the afternoon along the front. Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles will be very favorable for severe storms, but the extensive nature of the large-scale lift and the largely parallel upper flow to the surging front suggests storm interactions will be rapid, resulting in quick upscale growth into an extensive line of storms with time. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible as the line develops/matures, with large hail and isolated tornadoes the main threats during the initial stages of convective development Friday afternoon. Confidence is rather high that the entire region will see storms, with potentially numerous reports of severe weather, but given the rapid upscale growth expected...the messy resultant nature of the convection poses uncertainty with the magnitude of the severe risk. If storms can maintain a discrete nature for a sufficiently long period of time, an isolated strong tornado could occur given the highly favorable environment. Flash flooding is also more of a concern on Friday, as multiple rounds of storms may develop during the afternoon/evening, especially if storms end up training on the south side of the developing mesoscale convective system (favoring southern portions of the forecast area). With recent rains across the area, we remain rather vulnerable for instances of flooding, particularly with small streams/creeks and in urban areas. Precipitable water values Friday afternoon will be unseasonably high (generally 1.3-1.6 inches), and training convection will be possible during the evening as the low-level jet increases, impinging on the southeastward-progressing cold front. As the cold upper trough moves into the central Plains by Saturday, strong cold advection upstream of the front will bring much colder temperatures to the region by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 20-30 degrees colder than Friday, with lows Saturday night approaching the freezing mark in northern portions of the forecast area as a strong surface high approaches. Not out of the question we have to issue a few frost/freeze headlines for that period. Warmer temperatures will commence quickly, with Sunday warming a good ten degrees with subsequent warming on Monday and Tuesday to temperatures a good 10-15+ degrees above average. The next chance for precipitation comes by the middle of next week, as long-range models are showing another active period developing for the close of April. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are likely (>80%) through the forecast. There is a low chance (<20%) for some lower clouds and/or minor fog to develop generally south of the Missouri River early tomorrow morning, before dissipating with daytime heating/ mixing. Otherwise, winds will be light/ variable overnight and then increase late tomorrow morning out of the south. Sustained winds around 10kts are expected with some occasional stronger gusts to 20kts likely. Winds then diminish and back to the southeast after sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMS LONG TERM...CMS AVIATION...CDB  753 FXUS63 KOAX 160438 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger on Thursday, particularly in northeast Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All severe weather hazards will be possible. - Colder air arrives Friday night into this weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper-level trough that resulted in severe weather across the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon is departing our region to the east. In its wake, surface high pressure is building into the region. As a result, quiet weather conditions consisting of light winds and clear skies have overspread the area. Excellent radiation cooling allows temperatures to fall into the 40s for a cool start to Thursday. As we go through the day on Thursday, our next weather system will approach the northern Rockies. This supports the return of lee troughing across the Great Plains. In response, increasing southerly to southwesterly winds overspread the region. Temperatures quickly warm into the 80s by afternoon as relative humidities crater into the teens and 20s across much of the region. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of northeast Nebraska through the afternoon into the early evening. By Friday, the aforementioned weather system will already be moving into the area. A fast moving cold front is forecast to be entering northeast Nebraska by Friday morning. This front may begin to slow with daytime heating, but the latest high- resolution guidance has the cold front reaching far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. With the timing of the front being a bit faster and potentially uncertain, the temperature forecast is also uncertain. Ahead of the front will remain warm, similar to Thursday, while much cooler air moves in behind the front. With the fast moving front, strong forcing for ascent should produce showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is a risk severe thunderstorms, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon. With the trend towards a faster front, this threat may be decreasing as a result. Showers may linger behind the front into the evening and overnight hours on Friday. If precipitation can hang around into Saturday morning, a few snowflakes may mix in as well. Thankfully, no impacts are expected with this. As eluded to above, much colder weather begins the weekend. Portions of northeast Nebraska may see a Spring freeze Saturday morning. Elsewhere, sees middle to upper 30s during the morning hours. Temperatures only warm into the 50s Saturday afternoon with this colder airmass. Temperatures plummet further by Sunday morning with a widespread freeze likely. This freeze is before our typical last Spring freeze date, but recent green-up of vegetation may result in vegetation damage despite this. Temperatures quickly rebound by Sunday afternoon as upper-level ridging builds in. Temperatures climb back into the 70s to near 80 heading into next week. All is quiet weather-wise, until the middle of next week, when our next potential weather maker is forecast to breakdown the ridge. Thunderstorms chances are likely to return with this system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the region should continue to slowly weaken and dissipate over the next couple of hours. A stronger thunderstorm is ongoing in the vicinity of Grand Island, Nebraska. The chance of this thunderstorm reaching LNK is very low at this time. This activity is associated with an area of low pressure centered near the region. Winds are largely out of northwest, but are anticipated to become light and variable as the low pressure moves east of the area and surface high pressure fills in. Skies will clear of any lingering low-level cumulus after sunset. Surface high pressure moves east of the area during the morning hours on Thursday. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly as this occurs. Wind speeds begin to increase as our next weather system begins to approach the region as well. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Chehak  165 FXUS64 KMAF 160441 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1141 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface observations show the dryline is near the Midland/Odessa area this afternoon and may push a bit further east before convection begins along it in the next few hours. Isolated storms will be seen across the eastern most counties of the CWA. This activity will move east and decay around or just after sunset this evening. A few storms may be severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Dry air and mainly clear skies behind the retreating dryline tonight will allow areas west of Midland to cool efficiently with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s. Thursday will be somewhat of a repeat to today, but with the dryline moving even further east, rain chances take a drop down even for the eastern reaches of the area. Highs end up above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday also sees dryline action across the eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon/late evening, but like Thursday, it should be fairly limited in coverage. Another upper low also approaches on Friday and will increase winds across southeast New Mexico and into portions of West Texas. Breezy conditions will persist for the day before decreasing that evening. A cold front moves through the area early Saturday morning and keep temperatures below normal for both Saturday and Sunday with many areas in the 60s and 70s. By Sunday, an upper level disturbance looks to cross the region and long range guidance is bringing in broad, but low (10-30%) rain chances. Confidence remains low on just how much rain areas will get. Temperatures gradually increase back to normal (upper 70s to low 80s) on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with light and occasionally gusty southwest winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is still in place for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels combine with RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 57 90 65 91 / 0 10 10 0 Carlsbad 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 66 88 66 93 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 52 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 86 56 87 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 47 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0 Odessa 57 87 64 90 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 51 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  506 FXUS63 KFGF 160443 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average highs Thursday afternoon with near critical fire weather. - A narrow swath of snow or wintry mix is expected Thursday night/Friday morning but the exact location and ceiling of amounts remains uncertain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers near Lake of the Woods have moved off to the east, and conditions currently very quiet across most of the area. Some light and variable winds along the surface trough axis across most of the CWA, so can't completely rule out some fog but high clouds will be increasing and HREF probabilities for less than a half mile vis are around 20 percent. Will keep fog mention out for now. As for the Thursday night/Friday system, still a lot of uncertainty with the timing of the front and precipitation type. Probabilities of freezing rain and sleet around around 40 percent according to the HREF, with the bulk of the snow expected more over the Devils Lake basin. Probabilities of over 3 inches are 20 to 30 percent, and with the possibility of mixed precipitation, there is medium confidence in advisory level impacts. UPDATE Issued at 838 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in northwestern MN, so updated POPs to include a mention near Lake of the Woods. The activity should move off to the east and diminish before midnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Current split flow aloft begins to transition to SW flow through Thursday afternoon as a PNW trough deepens and moves east into the northern plains by Friday evening. Along with this troughing will be preceding seasonally strong thermal ridging (>98th percentile Thursday evening) which will push Thursday high temps to near records but coming up a few degrees short for most. This also brings near critical fire danger due to minimum RH's of 25 to 30 though winds less than 30 mph will temper the threat, more on this below. Behind the heat on Thursday comes a strong cold front with temps crashing from the 70s/80s to 30s/40s for Friday bringing a chance for snow to the area. Ridging returns for the weekend with highs slowly rebounding by Sunday into the 40s for all with 50s/60s likely for next week. - Thursday Heat/Fire Weather With anomalously strong thermal ridging across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota up into the Red Lakes expect the warmest day of the year so far. Highs will widely reach from 70 to 80 from Valley City to the Red Lakes and points south. A few may top 80 but that only looks to be about a 10% chance from Lisbon to Wadena and south. With the warm temps RH will fall into the 25 to 35 percent range (1pm to 8pm) but winds are only expected to be southerly at 20kts gusting 30kts at the worst during these low RH periods (noon to 5pm) meaning there is a short 4-5 hour temporal overlap and even smaller spatial overlap (really just the southern Red River Valley). Overall this keeps us short of Red Flag Criteria but to enough support near critical messaging. HDWI does have the area of concern reaching the 90th percentile and and ERC in the mid 20s. Aberdeen to our south will have a Red Flag Warning in effect for tomorrow with conditions becoming more of the near critical variety in our far south. Wouldn't rule out sites meeting Red Flag conditions for a short duration but at this point a RFW does not seem warranted with an SPS in effect for the MN counties of concern. Still recommend caution if burning. - Snow chances Later in the day on Thursday the troughing moves more directly overhead with decent FGEN from 850-700mb and favorable temperature profiles for snow. Using lessons learned from this winter and looking at the EC AIFS ens the favored corridor for any accumulating snow will be from south central ND into the northern Red River Valley and far northwest MN. Overall there is a 50% chance for a quarter inch and 30% for a half inch or more which certainly supports more than nuisance amounts of snow. Guidance suites vary significantly on whether they keep it snow vs rain though. HREF snow probs are as high as 50% for a narrow 30-50 mile wide swath of 3 or more inches, whereas the NBM and REFS have barely a 20% chance for even 1 inch. Which is right you may ask? Looking at the WPC super ensemble there are of outliers that of course have 4" or more (very low probability) but the majority at any given point are 0-2" with most likely getting only a few tenths (narrow band of heavy snow with light snow on either side). Therefore there is still considerable uncertainty on where the band set up and even how much of it falls as snow but there is high confidence a band of 0.2 to 0.4" of QPF will fall somewhere. This brings at least a 30% chance for winter impacts with the potential for a winter weather advisory to be warranted by sometime tomorrow. Later on in the period there is nothing that immediately grabs the attention for potential hazards but given the uncertainty that spring patterns can bring, with a range of hazards possible, it is unlikely to be truly quiet for an extended period of time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions with mostly mid and high clouds moving across the area. Some low probability for visibility under a mile along the trough axis currently across northwestern MN to just north of KFAR, but not high enough chances to put in the TAFs at this point. Winds will be all over the place with the trough axis over the area, then a cold front moving through our northern TAF sites and then stalling out. Depending on exact timing of the front, could see winds shift to the northeast at KFAR, then to the south, then back to the northwest. Behind the cold front during the second half of the period winds could gust up into the 25 to 30 kt range. Some indication of some MVFR ceilings moving in Thursday evening with the colder air behind the front. Confidence for this was highest at KDVL so included the lower category there and held off for the moment at the airports further south and east. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT  642 FXUS63 KGLD 160443 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1043 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watch issued for portions of the area where confidence is highest for multiple hours of critical conditions Thursday with warm temperatures, low humidity in the single digits to low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Those not in the watch is forecast to see one or two hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - Hard freeze likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night and Saturday morning for a hard freeze. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A low pressure system is departing the area leading wind gusts around 20-30 mph across the area but is forecast to wane west to east as the day goes on. High temperatures remain forecast in the 70s across the entire area. Winds this evening are forecast to shift to the southwest as a surface trough moves into the area as winds speeds remain around 10-15 mph under clear skies. With the surface trough drier air is forecast to move in as dew points fall into the upper teens to upper 20s. The shift to the southwest winds is forecast to keep temperatures from plummeting with the clear skies. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast around freezing across eastern Colorado to the low 40s across eastern portions of the area. The dry air is forecast to remain in place Thursday along with warming temperatures back into the 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures and the low dew points leads to high confidence in humidity in the low teens to upper single digits across the area. The surface trough is forecast to stall out across the area for most of the day leading to a very difficult fire weather forecast. Winds across the area are marginal when it comes to critical fire weather considerations for majority of the afternoon when humidity is forecast to be its lowest. While most of the area should see at least an hour of critical fire weather conditions confidence is around 50% for portions of the area to see 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions, this is where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for. The orientation of the trough across the area sets up an interesting hazard picture but shows the axis of the trough relatively well as it is draped from across northern Colorado down through portions of NW Kansas. In the axis of the trough winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Across SW Nebraska and far eastern portions of the CWA (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton and Graham) a tighter pressure gradient is forecast to be in place leading to wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting as early as the late afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions are around 60% at this time. For eastern Colorado (Kit Carson and Cheyenne), winds are forecast to be delayed until the middle afternoon until a low pressure system develops and increases the wind field. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast during this time and are forecast to continue through at least 02Z. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions across this area is around 50%. I heavily considered not issuing a watch as the trend with guidance lately has been favoring breezier winds but then lose the signal as the event gets nearer. But with 13Z NBM and 12Z HREF supporting the forecasted wind gusts with these synoptic features that was just enough to get my confidence high enough to issue the watch. Now if any of these features do shift any then the threat for multiple hours of critical fire weather would diminish. The focus then shifts to early Friday morning as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as winds shift to the north. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to accompany the front with guidance currently suggesting that wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as cold air advection increases. Light precipitation may also accompany the front as well as cross sections suggests -1 to -2 microbars of omega with the front. Omega actually increases through the day across northwest portions of the area which is increasing confidence in precipitation occurring even with increasing snow potential as well across eastern Colorado. With the warm ground temperatures accumulation will be hard to come by. Soundings support perhaps more of a drizzle initially with the front before the better forcing arrives later in the day Friday with dry air present between 700 and 600mb. Temperatures are forecast to fall through the day as well with afternoon highs currently forecast in the mid 40s across northwest portions of the area and to the mid 60s across the southeast. If the front were to move through quicker as fronts typically do then temperatures could fall a little more than currently forecast. As cold air advection continues the potential for a hard freeze for most if not all of the area does increase. There is some concern for this to be more of an impactful freeze than normal for a mid April cold snap due to the warmer than normal winter and spring that has occurred as some budding and blooming of trees, flowers and shrubs has begun. Along with the dry conditions residential and agriculture irrigation has been more frequent than normal which does bring the concern for freezing of outdoor irrigation systems. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Southwesterly winds will dominate, gusting around 20-30 kts tomorrow afternoon, before weakening and becoming more southeasterly after sunset. KGLD looks to see LLWS from the south at 200-400 feet AGL at 35-40 kts early this morning, too. Before sunrise Friday morning, a cold front will sweep through the area from the north. Winds will rapidly shift and increase in speed. Precipitation may occur behind the front during the day Friday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ253-254. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ080-081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA  722 FXUS63 KICT 160443 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening east-southeast KS. - Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend, warmup by next week. - Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THUNDERSTORMS: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline combined with increasing large-scale ascent immediately ahead an approaching shortwave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorm development by 2-4pm, generally east of a line extending from Eureka to Dexter. Strong effective deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kts combined with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg favors severe weather. However, strong forcing coupled with deep layer shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline should favor rapid storm mergers and a mostly messy storm mode, which should temper a higher-end severe threat. Still, could see a few supercells with large to very large hail, especially early on and/or if storms can remain a bit more discrete. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding are threats as well. While an isolated brief tornado can't be ruled out given the decent low-level buoyancy, unfavorable low-level shear and a messy storm mode should temper the overall tornado threat. Activity should exit southeast KS by 7-9 PM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector, as a potent upper trough and associated strong cold front/dryline combination approaches from the west. Strong instability combined with strong shear should support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. Storm mode and associated higher- end severe potential remains in question, as guidance has been speeding up the cold front, which would tend to support more of a messy storm mode, limiting the very large hail and tornado threat. Location and time...mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Hillsboro to Kingman between 2-11pm. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details the next few days. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another digging western CONUS trough next week along with returning moisture/instability, which could spell another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms across the region Wednesday through Friday of next week. Stay tuned. TEMPERATURES/WIND: Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through Friday. The warmest days look to be Thursday and Friday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into late Friday through the weekend, model consensus continues to support a substantial cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with below average temperatures Saturday and even possible near freezing temperatures early Saturday and early Sunday over central Kansas. Rebounding temperatures back to above average levels are expected as we head into next week. FOG: With rich low-level moisture sloshing back northwest later tonight into a radiated-out airmass, thinking fog is possible later tonight into Thursday morning, generally south of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls to Newton to Kingman. Unsure of dense fog potential, so will let the evening-night shifts diagnose that further. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low-level moisture will start to increase in the overnight hours while also spreading westward towards the Kansas Turnpike, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs developing over southeast KS and portions of south-central, mainly affecting CNU and ICT. Some patchy fog is also possible on the western edge of the low clouds as sunrise approaches. Low clouds will start to scatter out late morning with VFR conditions expected areawide by Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase in central KS by Thursday afternoon with gusts up to 25-30kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 THURSDAY...Increasing southerly winds in concert with low humidity and warm temperatures should support another round of very high to extreme grassland fire danger Thursday, highest over central and north-central KS, where a fire weather watch will likely be issued. Later shifts may need to consider adding Rice, Reno counties as well. FRIDAY...Strong northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger Friday over central and north-central Kansas. MONDAY-TUESDAY...Increasing southerly winds may support more very high grassland fire danger over central and north-central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033- 047. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...GC FIRE WEATHER...ADK  422 FXUS63 KDDC 160447 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased fire weather risk Thursday to critical conditions, with critical fire weather conditions likely east to Highway 183 corridor. Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning. - Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely. - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today (Wednesday) will continue to be a rather quiet day in between storm systems. In the wake of storm system #1, much drier air will continue to move back in from the west and southwest, especially as winds become southwesterly on Thursday. The persistent southerly winds Thursday into Thursday night will allow gulf moisture to advance north-northwestward ahead of the much larger storm system #2, which by Friday morning will become centered near the Utah-Colorado line. The difference with storm #2 is the much colder air mass moving in from the north across the High Plains, out ahead of the deep mid level trough. Given the magnitude of colder air behind the front, a stronger than normal density current will develop, allowing very intense pressure rises behind the front, and the front will drive south very quickly during the day. All models have been quicker with the front with each successive run, which is a typical behavior as models catch up to the magnitude of cold air mass involved as well as strength of density current. Given that, we will also need to watch for possible High Wind criteria being met in gusts (58+ mph) for an hour or two in strongest initial MSLP rises (upwards of +8 or more mb/3hr). Numerous severe storms will develop along the cold front and in vicinity of the cold front-dryline triple point, but given faster cold front, initiation will most likely now be across our far eastern counties Stafford-Pratt-Barber area, or perhaps even east of there just east of our DDC CWA. The Latest SPC Convective Outlook has shifted the gradient in probabilistic outlooks east to account for the faster/stronger cold front push in the afternoon Friday. The strong cold front will lead to fairly robust temperature drop late Friday Night into early Saturday, with lows Saturday morning well down into the lower 30s much of southwest Kansas with 28F or less generally west of roughly Liberal to Garden City to WaKeeney. After initial collaboration with neighboring NWS offices to the west and northwest, we have considered issuing a Freeze Watch given the historically warm start to this Spring season. Similar temperatures are also likely early Sunday morning across the same general areas of far southwest and far west central Kansas while winds remain light before southwesterly winds pick back up again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Light (5-10 KTs) winds will start the period before winds strengthen from 15-20 KTs with gusts up to 30 KTs out of the south/southwest. At the end of the period, around 3Z, some high based cloud cover is expected to move in with some weak LLWS and lightening winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday, and as confidence continues to increase, we will upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and also add in more counties -- east to a Hays to Coldwater line. Given the faster moving cold front on Friday, widespread critical fire weather conditions will be shunted farther south, and given continued forecast uncertainty in cold front timing, we will hold off on any fire weather headlines for Friday afternoon. After a respite in fire weather concerns Saturday, we will see a return to windy/dry conditions by Sunday with very low RH's down to 8 to 15% for a few hours across all of southwest, west central, and even south central Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...KBJ FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid  698 FXUS64 KSJT 160452 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk for severe storms. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in our area this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing early this afternoon over southeastern Throckmorton County. High resolution models have been consistently developing isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon along the dryline, roughly along and east of an Abilene to Ozona line. The one missing component to aid in convection is upper level support. However, should these storms develop, they will have 2500 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE, and 45 to 60 knots of deep layer shear as well. So, any storms that develop will have the chance to increase to severe levels, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Expect storms to continue into the evening hours, ending gradually after sunset as instability wanes. Otherwise, expect another warm night with lows mainly in the lower 60s. For Thursday, temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. With even less support for convection tomorrow, will continue the dry forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 One more unseasonably warm day is expected on Friday before cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend and early next week behind a cold front. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. The dryline is forecast to advance east, just west of our forecast area, by mid to late afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the dryline. A strong cap will be present, so confidence remains low that we will see any convection along the dryline. If a few storms do develop, they may move into our western counties during the evening hours. For now, PoPs were kept on the low side (around 20%), but will continue to monitor. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough will track across the Great Plains late Friday into Saturday morning, sending a cold front south into West Central Texas Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances. Rain amounts look to remain fairly light (generally under 0.25 inches) as any showers and thunderstorms should move through fairly quickly. Gusty north winds will filter in behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. An upper level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will approach the area on Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover. Cool temperatures are forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned disturbance approaches, rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday. Generally low end (20-30%) rain chances are forecast. The continued extensive cloud cover along with possible showers and thunderstorms will keep highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday. A steady warm up is then anticipated into the middle of next week with highs on Tuesday in the 70s and highs on Wednesday back into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection has ended across West Central Texas for the night. Satellite shows the low clouds starting to redevelop and push north into the area, and this trend will continue through sunrise. As usual the last few days, MVFR cigs will persist at many location into the late morning hours or even early afternoon in the southern terminals, before lifting into a VFR deck. More storms are possible this afternoon/evening but chances seem lower than in previous days and with much more uncertainty. Will monitor and update as needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 64 88 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 San Angelo 63 88 65 90 / 20 10 20 10 Junction 63 87 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 62 86 63 86 / 10 10 10 10 Sweetwater 63 90 66 92 / 0 10 20 10 Ozona 64 85 64 87 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 64 85 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07  803 FXUS63 KDVN 160452 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms will linger well into the night with no severe weather threat expected. - A seasonally strong storm system will impact our area Friday afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. - Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front, bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area. Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Seasonally strong shortwave trof currently located over central Nebraska will continue to track east through Iowa this afternoon/evening. A surface low pressure will pass southwest to northeast just northwest of our area, dragging a cold front through our area this evening/tonight. While we already have ongoing showers and storms, we are expecting another round of storms as the cold front moves through the area this evening/tonight. Ahead of that, we will have a stationary/warm front draped over the area, which will be another focus for convective initiation ahead of the main line of convection. This is currently located between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. Thus, a few rounds of storms are expected today, where flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains for those areas at greatest risk, owing to heavy rainfall yesterday. The SPC has our whole area outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather today, where our best chances for severe weather will be with the line of storms progged to come through with the cold front this evening. Isolated severe storms are possible ahead of this through the afternoon, but confidence is low on coverage and severity. Looking at model soundings, we can expect another day of mixed-mode convection. Early-Mid afternoon, we are likely to continue to see scattered showers and storms. Given a lot of cloud cover and higher coverage of showers/storms in our north, the severe threat should remain relatively low into mid-afternoon. Although, areas south of Interstate 80 will have seen more sun peeking through, which has allowed more instability to build. Thus, there will be a little more of a severe threat in our south, generally in the form of semi- discrete supercells. Confidence is low on this at this time, but will further get monitored for the potential through mesoscale analysis this afternoon. This convection will generally be seen between the hours of 12-4 PM. Going into late afternoon and evening, we will see a line (possibly disconnected line of supercells) moving into our area from west to east, with some leading semi-discrete cells as well. The leading cells could be supercellular, which are currently looking to develop between the Highway 30 and Highway 34 corridors. These supercells may form just ahead of the line, generally between 4-6 PM, and then get absorbed into the main line. As we get towards the evening hours, the aforementioned line (QLCS- like with embedded supercells) will move through the area from west to east. Timing-Wise, this is expected to move into our west around 5-7 PM, and move out of our area by midnight local time. The best severe threat will be in the late afternoon/evening hours, but gradually decreasing after sunset. Now a look into the environment in place. The AM convection and resultant cloud cover has delayed our surface heating a bit, but clearing skies have been seen. This may limit the overall instability, but will still be sufficient. We are still looking at the potential for CAPE around 2000-3000+, collocated with shear around 50-60+ KTs, with little/no cap seen in forecast soundings. Thus, we have the necessary CAPE/Shear balance to favor supercells today. Although, with strong forcing moving in this afternoon and evening, upscale growth is expected. As was mentioned, this could be in the form of a disconnected line with embedded supercells. Lapse rates are once again favorable for hail in the midlevels, collocated with a fat CAPE profile in the hail growth layer. SPC highlights parts of our area in the potential for significant hail (2"+), which is possible. Otherwise, all hazards are in play today, with the primary threat being winds and embedded tornadoes when the line of convection comes through this evening. We are especially focusing on counties along the Interstate 80 corridor, as this is generally where the stalled out boundary will be. This will serve as a focus point for severe weather (some significant severe weather possible), with the increased tornado threat. Tonight and through Thursday, weak ridging moves in, with a surface high pressure quickly passing through. Thus, after any residual showers move out Thursday AM, we should remain dry for the remainder of the day. Clouds will also decrease through the day, with light winds and temperatures increasing into the mid-upper 70s. Thus, we are in for a beautiful day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will be another day of concern, as a potent shortwave tracks off of the Rockies and towards the Upper Midwest. This wave will develop a seasonally strong low pressure system, progged to drag a strong cold front through the area. Ahead of this, we will have an environment favorable for organized convection that can become strong to severe. Uncertainty remains with regards to timing, which can lead to impacts on the overall severe threat. Guidance has been hinting at this moving through Friday evening/night. Ahead of that, we will see a mix of clouds/sun, which will help build instability. According to model soundings, we may have CAPE values upwards to 2000-3000+, with shear around 35-45 KTs. The shear is a little lower than we have seen with the recent events, but sufficient for organized convection. Although, this would lead me to believe that we will largely be dealing with a line of strong/severe convection, but some initial isolated-scattered storms cannot be ruled out. More details are to come, as more short term hi-res CAMs start rolling in over the next 24-36 hours. The SPC has highlighted much of our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for areas east of the Mississippi River. Continue to monitor the forecast for future updates. This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in, bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with areas north of Interstate 80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this timeframe. Although, confidence is lower on this now, as temperatures have trended upwards a few degrees since the last forecast package. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with mostly clear skies. While cooler, it should be a relatively pleasant weekend. Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The widespread thunderstorm activity has moved east and south of the region, though a small area of storms will be near DBQ in northeast Iowa just before 06Z, and a couple isolated showers / possible storms will dot areas south into the night. Thus, a very widely scattered shower could impact terminals, but the majority of time will be dry. Some MVFR cigs are possible in northeast Iowa overnight, as low pressure moves into Wisconsin, otherwise VFR conditions will persist through Thursday into Thursday evening, as very pleasant weather moves in, for just one day before more storms arrive Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Ervin  315 FXUS63 KLMK 160454 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1254 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather is likely to continue today (~90% confidence) though clouds will increase overnight into Thursday morning. * Clouds thicken for the morning commute though rain chances though confidence is low for morning rain showers. (90% of remaining below 0.1" in rainfall). * Marginal severe storm threat for gusty winds Thursday afternoon, though confidence is low for storms on account of prolonged cloud cover and strong SE ridging. * A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Wednesday - Thursday ===== We are well above-normal today as highs soar into the mid to upper 80s in a few places. A few record highs could be broken with strong SW flow this afternoon. Otherwise, some high level cirrus clouds will stick around as a major trough remains to our north and west, along with most, if not all the rain this afternoon as well. There is plenty of surface instability and all that is needed is a trigger to initiate lift. Though a very small chance (<10%), an isolated storm is possible in our far northern IN counties, though most likely everyone remains dry and baking into the 80s. With a jet overhead, SW winds will increase some today, with gusts of 20-30 MPH this afternoon. Eventually, clouds increase and lower with height tonight allowing the surface to decouple from these higher winds above. Overnight, clouds continue to thicken and rain chances increase from west to east sometime after 7 AM EDT. A shortwave from the west will approach our CWA though with weakening instability, frontogenesis, and shear, this line of showers and storms will fall apart as it closes in. How much this line weakens depends on how much a high over the SE US relents, with latest probability CAM guidance keeping high end rainfall totals under a tenth by noon tomorrow (>90%). During the day and into the afternoon, clouds will stick around the whole CWA, acting as a lid to any convection that tries to initiate. Afternoon highs are a tad cooler in the mid to upper 70s from those clouds sticking around. The shortwave that moves through will keep a boundary draped over the central CWA. If this boundary can stall long enough with thinning clouds and increasing instability (increasing CAPE and dewpoints) from the SW in the afternoon and evening hours, convection could overwhelm the cap and initiate scattered showers and storms. A marginal risk for severe weather is possible for any afternoon storms with the main threat being gusty winds. Confidence is low in the severe threat given recent trends but is something we will monitor. The most limiting factor to storms or severe weather is the strength of the ridge at low to mid levels along with how much cloud cover can limit daytime heating. Still, some rainfall is likely, albeit small amounts with totals most likely remaining under 0.2" in (90%). A few places could see 0.5" in of rain if the SE ridge can weaken or move east slightly, forming more storms later in the evening (10%). SE high pressure keeps a warm SW flow for our area heading into the weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ===== Brief Dry Period on Friday ===== Mostly dry and warm weather is expected on Friday as upper ridging briefly moves across the region. This upper ridge will amplify in response to an upstream shortwave ejecting out of the Mountain West region. Southwest flow will persist and promote a WAA regime, which will allow temps to warm well into the 80s by the afternoon, and potentially challenge some max temp records. By Friday night, the upper ridge will begin to shift east, with a LLJ out ahead of an associated cold front beginning to enter into the area from the west. This will provide an increase in moisture transport overnight, and perhaps some rain chances mainly west of I-65 for Friday night. ===== Showers and Storms Saturday ===== The upper trough is expected to amplify across the central US on Saturday, with a deepening low moving north of the Great Lakes and across southern Ontario. An extensive cold front will trail southward through the Midwest, which will be the focus for showers and storms to sweep through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, southwest gradient winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph, along with increasing cloud cover and approaching showers and storms. While it will be quite warm with temps reaching the upper 70s and low 80s, the cloud cover should somewhat limit heating, especially west of I- 65 where cloud cover will overspread the region earlier in the day. The warmest temps in the area will likely occur near the I-75 corridor due to a longer exposure to WAA and sunshine before the front and precip approaches. SPC maintains the 15% risk for Saturday mainly for I-64 and north, including the Louisville and Lexington metros. However, there remains some uncertainty in regards to severe storm potential, primarily due to questions revolving around how much instability we'll be able to realize. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles indicate a 60- 70% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE, a 40-50% chance of exceeding 750 J/kg, and a 25-30% chance of exceeding 1000 J/kg. High end amounts (10% chance of exceedance) top out around 1200-1300 J/kg. There is more confidence on shear parameters given the LLJ overhead, and expect to see deep layer shear values 40-50kts, sufficient for well-organized storms. Shear profiles are mostly unidirectional, which will support linear convection with a damaging wind threat. Regardless, the frontal boundary will provide strong forcing in a favorable shear environment with at least some marginal instability expected, so confidence continues to increase on shower and storm potential. As of now, the highest chances for showers and storms will be from late morning through the entire afternoon ahead of the cold front. If the front is slower than expected, the severe risk could be greater given more time for diurnal heating to help destabilize our environment more. If it arrives quicker than expected, it will shut off our severe potential earlier in the day, leading to a potentially drier afternoon and evening. Confidence remains limited on FROPA timing, and may not gain much confidence until we get within the CAMs range. Regardless of when exactly the front will pass through, our sfc winds will veer from the warm SW flow to a cooler and drier WNW direction, especially by the late evening hours. CAA will take over, leading to temps to drop into the 40s overnight. ===== Seasonably Cool Sunday into Next Week ===== In a post-fronal regime by Sunday, expect seasonably cool temps and drier weather. This will likely continue into Monday as well due to sfc high pressure building across the region. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to remain in the 60s. Monday morning could be an opportunity for some frost development, especially in the Bluegrass region as morning lows dip into the 30s. The 100-member LREF suggests a 40-50% chance of favorable frost conditions. Sfc high pressure will shift east of the area on Tuesday, leading to a return to the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will be seen at the terminals early this morning with high clouds and light southwest winds. Convection out toward STL will gradually move eastward overnight and weaken. Convective remains may hold together and impact HNB/SDF/LEX during the morning hours. While VFR conditions should hold, some tempo drops in showers to MVFR will be possible. Southwest winds will pickup by mid-morning with gusts of 18-20kts being possible through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish toward sunset with skies clearing out. Winds will be mainly WSW and less than 5kts later tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM....CJP AVIATION.....MJ  945 FXUS65 KGJT 160455 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1055 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in various valleys this morning and tonight before a widespread hard freeze sets in Friday night. - After a brief warm up, colder unsettled weather returns to the region tonight through Saturday morning. - Warm weather builds back in this weekend into early next week with a return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Satellite imagery shows the next low pressure system currently descending through the Pacific Northwest with strong low-level winds ahead of it across northern Nevada, southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Models are in good agreement with tight pressure gradients this area and a 100+ kt jet between H400 and H300 layers. This system will track to the east along the Canadian Border with the associated trough and frontal boundary pushing across eastern Utah and Western Colorado this evening into Friday bringing widespread showers to the region overnight through Friday evening. Ahead of this system today expect strong southwesterly winds across the northern and central valley areas with wind advisories in effect for all but the Grand Valley from 11 AM through 2 AM tomorrow. Look for isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms with the cold front tonight into tomorrow with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet. These storms may produce brief periods of low visibility and rapidly changing road conditions in possible snow squalls. If you plan to drive through the mountains during this time, allow extra time to reach your destination. This system doesn't have a lot of moisture with it, so we expect only a few inches snow through the northern and central mountains with an inch or so possible in the northern valleys. The lower valleys including the Grand valley will likely see a dusting Friday morning. The primary concern is the hard freeze forecast Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see temperatures ten degrees or more below normal with morning lows in the teens to upper 20's. Freeze Watches have been issued as we gear up for this impactful event. LOOKING AHEAD: A ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend into early next week resulting in the return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with southwest winds dropping off to terrain driven winds around sunset. Winds aloft increase overnight with areas of Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at the mountain TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds pick up after 15Z becoming strong through the afternoon gusting 30 to 45 kts with the stronger winds at the northern TAF sites. Showers will start to move into the northern areas after 21Z ahead of the next storm system with possible impacts to KVEL and KHDN in the last hours of the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ001-002- 007-008-011. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ008-021>023. UT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ024-027. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for UTZ024. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB/TGJT AVIATION...DB  374 FXUS65 KCYS 160455 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1055 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest winds will increase Thursday across the area, leading to critical fire danger over the High Plains and the potential for high winds in portions of Carbon county. - A very strong cold front will sweep through the area between the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday, bringing rapidly dropping temperatures and an abrupt wind shift. - Snow squalls and a flash freeze will be possible Thursday evening, primarily in Carbon and Converse counties. - Widespread snowfall is expected Thursday evening through Friday, though exact accumulations remain uncertain. - Winter-like temperatures in the teens to low 20s are expected by Saturday morning, creating a risk for outdoor irrigation and sensitive vegetation that has emerged from winter dormancy early. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Active weather will continue across the area for the next several days with multiple different hazards anticipated. This will be driven by a powerful Pacific trough which is already apparent on GOES satellite imagery moving inland this afternoon. As this feature dives into the western CONUS tomorrow, it will amplify the downstream ridge over our area. This will strengthen the southwest flow aloft beginning tonight and continuing through the day tomorrow. Median 700-mb wind speeds per the LREF climb to around 45 knots late this evening and remain there through midday Thursday over much of Carbon County. These values are around the climatological 99th percentile. The latest probabilities for wind exceeding high wind criteria from the NBM are in the 50 to 70% range for much of Carbon county including Rawlins, Elk Mountain, Arlington, and Muddy Gap. In addition, the wind direction is favorable for some downslope winds into the Upper North Platte River Valley. While confidence is lower for that zone, it was enough to include the Saratoga area in a High Wind Watch. The best window looks like mid morning through the early afternoon on Thursday, but the watch covers a longer time period beginning midnight tonight and continuing until a few hours after the frontal passage on Thursday to account for a few overnight mountain waves, and higher than expected wind gusts with the cold front. We will also need to keep an eye on the Converse County area for a potential expansion of the high wind threat, but probabilities are lower there (10-40%). By mid morning, gusty southwest winds will mix down the surface across the entire area. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are anticipated over the High Plains, which will increase the fire weather threat. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the High Plains once again. The increased cloud cover may provide a failure mode for critical conditions, but confidence was high enough to upgrade across the board. Big changes will be on the way as a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. Expect this to arrive around 3 to 4PM for our northern and western zones, including western Carbon and western Converse counties. The Sidney area will be the last to see the front push through, with expected timing around 10 to 11PM. As the front passes through, expect an abrupt wind shift and rapid rise in surface pressure. Extremely strong frontogenesis will support precipitation immediately behind the frontal passage. Modest instability will be present ahead of the front, so we will need to watch for convective enhancement, particularly due to the late afternoon timing. The very strong mechanical forcing (as much as 3 mb per hour pressure rises) and potential for a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will put snow squalls on the table. While temperatures will be spring-like ahead of the front, look for a very rapid drop in temperatures which could add flash freeze concerns. Rain may flip over to snow very quickly, especially in Carbon County. Rawlins, for example, should see a high around the lower 60s Thursday, but may be below freezing by 7 to 8PM, if not sooner. Travelers across Albany, Carbon, and Converse counties should be prepared for hazardous, rapidly changing conditions including low visibility in falling and blowing snow and icy surfaces especially as the sun goes down. Overnight, model guidance remains a little split concerning whether some post-frontal overrunning lift will manage to develop. Forecast soundings for Rawlins show about 6 hours of a warm nose developing right in the middle of the dendritic growth zone between about 9PM and 3AM. A few ensemble members try to bring low-level dry air in underneath this very promptly, and cut into precipitation totals. Taken all together, there was enough confidence in at least some impacts from snow to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most of Carbon and Converse counties. These are the areas where impacts will occur Thursday evening. The storm system will slowly migrate eastward Thursday night into Friday morning, spreading cold air and snow with it. While precipitation should be more or less right behind the front when it first moves into the area, the surface front will race ahead overnight. East of a Laramie to Lusk line, forcing for ascent will not really get going until after midnight, several hours behind the initial frontal passage. For determining impacts, the exact start time will be fairly critical. Snow beginning pre-dawn should easily stick, and create icy and slick conditions for the Friday morning commute. However, if forcing holds off just a few hours later until around 9AM or so, after the strong April sun takes hold, road impacts in particular may be more limited. Due to this uncertainty, decided to hold off on expanding the Winter Weather Advisory east of Laramie. The most likely scenario still includes 1 to 4 inches of snow in Albany, Platte and Laramie counties, with a dusting to 2 inches further to the east. In addition to the snow, blustery north winds are expected with this event. This will lead to chilly wind chill values and the potential for some blowing snow. Snow might actually be a little lighter and fluffier than typical for this late in the season as forecast soundings show a fairly deep, saturated dendritic growth zone. So, while some melt on contact is anticipated with the warm ground temperatures, this probably won't be a typical late April heavy wet snowfall. Ratios are expected to be around 12:1 to 15:1 in Wyoming, and 8:1 to 12:1 in Nebraska. The last impact of this system will be the expected cold temperatures. After a historically warm start to spring, vegetation has progressed much further out of dormancy than typical for mid April. This event will not be record challenging cold by any means, but we will have temperatures far below average. In fact, 700-mb temperatures will be below the 10th percentile of climatology on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for some areas, and all remaining below the lower 40s at the warm end. As skies clear and winds die down, we should have time for rapid radiative cooling. Widespread lows in the teens to lower 20s can be expected by Saturday morning, which will cause issues for outdoor irrigation systems and sensitive vegetation. Those with such vulnerabilities to the cold temperatures are encouraged to make preparations for the cold weather while the warm temperatures last on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Saturday...With decent low and mid level gradients and northwest flow aloft, it looks breezy to windy. 700 mb temperatures near -7 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 40s west of I-25, with upper 40s to mid 50s east of I-25. Sunday...Ridging aloft moves over western Wyoming with a surface lee trough developing over our counties. With 700 mb temperatures near 5 Celsius, maximum temperatures will climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s west of I-25, with mid 60s to lower 70s further east. Monday...The warming trend will continue as ridging aloft strengthens and becomes more pronounced over western Wyoming. 700 mb temperatures near 7 Celsius will produce high temperatures in the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. Tuesday...Dry conditions continue as ridging aloft transitions to eastern Wyoming. Slightly warmer as 700 mb temperatures warm a degree or two. Wednesday...As the ridge axis aloft moves to the northern high plains, our flow aloft will turn southwest with strengthening surface lee troughing. Temperatures slightly cooler due to more cloud cover. Slight chances for afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms due to an increase in low and mid level moisture and low level convergence. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper level ridge axis will linger around the region for one more day on Thursday, but it will become windy late in the morning and afternoon, especially the southeast Wyoming terminals. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday evening. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected over the next 18 hours, with the first bands of snow entering the KRWL vicinity after 00z Friday. Added PROB30 group mainly due to timing differences, but do expect it to snow with IFR conditions likely after 06z Friday (50% to 70% probabilities). Otherwise, increasing and lowering cloud bases are expected for all other terminals through 00z Friday with a gradual wind shift to the north. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419- 430>433. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for WYZ101. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 3 PM MDT Friday for WYZ103>105-109>111-113. High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday evening for WYZ104-109-110-113. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...TJT  712 FXUS63 KGRR 160457 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday - Colder and Windy Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue Instability is slowly building this afternoon, with thunderstorms intensifying to our south in the more favorable environment. The currently warned storm in Indiana is expected to remain south of the area and with the ongoing stratiform rain, our afternoon chances for severe weather are low. A lull is expected during the late afternoon and early evening before the low level jet picks back up bringing another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots and MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be enough for some stronger to severe storms. Overall the primary concern tonight will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with lower chances for hail and winds. Risk for severe storms looks to taper off by 2am with lingering showers into Thursday morning. Instability will drop off overnight into Thursday morning limiting the lightning potential. As the upper level low approaches Thursday afternoon instability is expected to build. HREF mean surface based instability values around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 30 knots. Some stronger storms may develop with the best chances along and south of I-69, damaging winds and hail are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated spots up to 3 inches possible. Flooding concerns will continue with rivers expected to worsen. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information. - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Dry conditions return for Friday with highs in the 70s under a brief period of high pressure. Southwest flow ahead of a deep trough with a strong low level jet will feed warm, moist air into the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the cold front there could be a concern for strong to severe storms. The Day 4 outlook has shifted the 15 percent area further east likely due to the current trend for the front to move through during the early afternoon. - Colder and Windy Sunday Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures may peak in the upper 30s to 40s, however wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward across the area as a frontal boundary traverses Michigan. An additional line of showers and thunderstorms will reach KMKG later in the morning, followed by terminals further to the south and east in the afternoon. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are possible as the storms reach the terminals. Lower clouds will remain in the area after the storms pass, which means MVFR conditions will persist into the early evening. Increased southwesterly winds also pick up in the late morning through early afternoon along and south of Interstate 96, with peak gusts around 20 knots possible. Winds should decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dense fog continues to impact the nearshore waters, a Marine Dense Fog advisory is in effect through tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight before transitioning to mainly showers. Winds will shift to the northwest Thursday but remain below Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Friday dry conditions are expected with southerly winds building throughout the day into Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms will also be possible Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries. Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches. Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Meltzer MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...AMD  755 FXUS63 KARX 160459 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms return to the local forecast area for Friday with all, increased intensity types of hazards possible. Continue monitoring forecast for further details. - Near to below freezing overnight low temperatures through the weekend result in non-accumulating snowfall potential primarily for parts of the northern half of the forecast area at current forecast hour. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry Thursday: A reprieve in storm chances today from passing anticyclonic flow ushering in a drier airmass will feel less humid compared to previous days with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. The break in precipitation also allows over saturated soils to recover some from heavy, high rainfall amounts over the last few days. Fire weather concerns expected to remain northwest of the local forecast area into central Minnesota. Severe Storms Likely Friday: A stout longwave upper level trough seen progressing east over the Pacific Northwest on GOES water vapor loops excites low level moisture transport through the Central to Northern Plains Thursday, progressing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley Friday. Accompanying instability of 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE seen in low and high resolution models builds through the forecast area before eventual fropa Friday night. While LREF dProg/dt remains mostly consistent, a slightly more phased solution to the low has increased intraensemble agreement for a deeper low pressure center slightly farther north from west-central into northern Wisconsin. The concurrent steep mid level lapse rates (GFS 15.18Z) of 9.5C+/km raise initial supercell concerns through Friday afternoon as a meso low phases/occludes along our western/northern periphery. Therefore, model derived significant severe parameters illuminate initial stronger severe threats during supercellular storm mode Friday afternoon through some of the forecast area before fropa causes linear storm mode to progress from northwest to southeast through the evening into the nighttime hours. All storm modes remain possible with highest potentially strong tornado threat during the afternoon should surface based supercells form along a lifting boundary. Tornadoes within linear storm mode later through Friday remain possible albeit potentially not as strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with all storm modes. Winter Resemblant Weekend Expected: A colder airmass settles in through the weekend, ushering in winter precipitation chances Saturday into Saturday night. Deepening on growing season, confidence in near to below freezing overnight low surface temperatures may require subsequent Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning issuance Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Unfortunately, low (<15%) LREF joint probabilities for shear and CAPE graze the local forecast area again by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Scattered storms have mostly remained south of both TAF sites at 16.06Z TAF issuance, mostly persisting VFR. MVFR visibilities have begun to reach KLSE as IFR-LIFR progresses northeast, north of the scattered storms through southwest Wisconsin. This will be main forecast detail to remain cognizant of through Thursday as surface dewpoint temperatures remain slightly above soil temperatures, persisting morning shallow fog concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 After ongoing overnight scattered weak storms, dry conditions on Thursday provide a temporary reprieve to local rivers, allowing some recovery in bank full. Current river flood warnings for most of Wisconsin rivers are expected to begin cresting Thursday night through Friday. Unfortunately, heavy rain potential increases through Friday as a line of strong storms eventually progresses from northwest to southeast Friday evening and night. Initial discrete storm mode raises highest concern Friday afternoon/evening with low confidence in exact location. Current confidence may affect susceptible rivers such as Black, Yellow, and Trempealeau in west-central Wisconsin which would not be enough time to fully recover. Continue monitoring upcoming forecasts for location of highest QPF amounts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ042>044-053>055-061. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...JAR