346 FXUS64 KBMX 160501 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama despite the potential for light rain amounts Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 The upper-level pattern will slowly begin to break down over the next 36-hours, as a deep trough and cold front begin to move east out of the central Plains. Rain chances will finally return to the forecast by late Saturday evening, as this cold front begins to work into the region. While any rain at this point is welcomed, it will hardly be the rainfall the region needs to make any sort of meaningful impact on the ongoing drought. Most locations will generally see between a quarter and a half-inch of rainfall when its all said and done Sunday afternoon. Temperatures behind the cold front will drop some 15-20 degrees, with afternoon highs on Sunday ranging in the upper-60s to low-70s. With that being said, temperatures will quickly rebound as a subtle ridge works back into the region. While this climb will be slow, afternoon highs should be back in the low-80s by Wednesday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather conditions will remain elevated into the weekend, with fuels remaining critically dry. Thankfully, rain chances increase Saturday into Sunday, but it still won't be the drought busting rain that we desperately need. Winds will be strong over the weekend as well, as a cold front moves through the region, before slightly dropping into Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, it looks like MinRH will dramatically drop behind this front, with low MinRH values expected for most of next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 84 57 88 / 0 10 10 10 Anniston 57 84 60 88 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 60 85 63 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 59 85 61 89 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 58 85 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 60 84 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 56 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION.../44/  833 FXUS63 KLSX 160504 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging winds and large hail through 11pm. - Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected again on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A series of shortwaves can be seen across the Great Plains in water vapor imagery, with southwesterly flow across the Middle Mississippi Valley ahead of these waves. An elongated fetch of warm, moist air is feeding into the region from the Gulf, aiding in forcing scattered showers and thunderstorms now across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Model and ACARS soundings out of KSTL suggest that this convection is elevated above an inversion at 800- 850 mb. Associated convective debris has been inhibiting surface heating so far, causing a dearth of instability along and south of the MO I-44/IL I-55 corridor this afternoon. Westward across western Missouri, insolation and mid-60s to low 70s dewpoints have yielded upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Here, an extensive area of cumulus can be seen in visible satellite imagery. Subtle leading waves within the southwesterly flow and an area of lift via jet dynamics will produce nebulous lift across portions of central and northeastern Missouri, as well as west-central Illinois through this afternoon into this evening. If enough surface heating is realized, then the cap will break, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms among the aforementioned instability and about 50 kts of effective shear. This is an environment favorable for organized updrafts, with some supercell structures possible. A limiting factor for robust supercells is slight veer-back-veer vertical wind profiles and/or weak low to mid-level flow noted in ACARS soundings and the KLSX VWP. A mostly straight hodograph with these attributes will lead to both left and right-moving updrafts that will tend to be shorter-lived as they interact and grow into localized clusters. If this round materializes, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, though about 20 kts of 0-1km shear and 200m2/s2 of low-level SRH means that there is a low chance for brief tornadoes. A solution that CAMs are increasingly supporting is that convection this afternoon and early evening remains mostly subdued, allowing for the atmosphere to remain undisturbed ahead of a cold front moving into the region this evening and the early overnight hours. Then, lift from the shortwave and upper-level jet will be greater, pairing with the cold front to force numerous updrafts along and immediately ahead of the front as it moves eastward. Initially, both the vertical wind and thermal profile will be similar as this afternoon, leading to discrete supercells. Confidence is high that these discrete storms will form west of the CWA, growing upscale into clusters and line segments as they interact with each other and the front thanks to deep layer shear vectors parallel to the boundary. These interactions and waning instability after sunset will lead to a weakening trend as the line segments move into the CWA. The primary threat with this round will be damaging wind gusts, with line segments surging northeastward carrying a tornado threat thanks to 30-40kts of 0-3km shear vectors oriented southwest to northeast. Once the convection and associated stratiform rain clears the CWA during the early morning hours, mainly dry conditions are expected through early Friday. Though, there is a low chance for convection across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois tomorrow afternoon. Our attention then turns to Friday as a highly-amplified trough ejects out into the Plains and sends a cold front into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, ensemble clusters have a median value of 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE, with deterministic models showing as much as 3-4,000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is progged to be 45-50 kts, creating a environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the Midwest. Given the lead time and forecast load prior to then, further details on thunderstorm threats, timing, and placement for Friday will wait until later updates. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 At daybreak Saturday morning, guidance consensus is that Friday's front will be deep into the Ohio Valley and clear of the CWA as the axis of the upper-level trough pivots eastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. With the core of this trough and the track of the associated surface low being well north-northeast of the region, the CWA will miss out on the core of the post-frontal airmass. Still, increasingly deep northwesterly flow will push cooler air into the CWA, pushing Saturday and Sunday's temperatures to at and just below climatological normals. The trough will quickly shift eastward early next week, allowing for low to mid-level ridging to build and southwesterly flow to return across the region. This favors warming temperatures, with ensembles clustering around seasonal normals starting Monday and then above normal by mid-week. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Light rain will continue to impact the metro terminals over the next few hours, though visibilities should stay VFR. Cannot rule out a stroke of lightning or two in the area, but probability looks too low to mention in the TAFs. Dry/VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period with mostly light south/southwesterly winds. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  661 FXUS64 KHGX 160507 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1207 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday. - Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to instances of minor flooding of urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. - Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 More of the same through the end of the work week as south- southeasterly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft keep the unseasonably warm, moist conditions in place. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Combination of daytime heating and increased moisture may lead to very isolated, light streamer showers during the late morning and afternoon hours - but, the overall chance for a specific location to get a light shower is <10%. Afternoon high temperatures through Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday will start out similar to the previous few days (warm, muggy), but we are expecting an increase in shower and thunderstorms activity through the day on Saturday into Saturday night. This increase in activity will be due a cold front that will be moving through the region late Saturday and a weak pre- frontal trough that moves overhead. Moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front with PWATs up to around 1.75-2", so any thunderstorms that are able to develop ahead of or along the cold front may be able to produce locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates up to 2-3" per hour. WPC has placed areas along and north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. If any of these heavy thunderstorms move over a low- lying spot or area of poor drainage, then minor street flooding or ponding may occur. Coastal showers may linger through Sunday morning as moisture lingers behind the FROPA. Breezy conditions are expected along the coast Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Cooler weather is expected Sunday and Monday with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows down into the mid 50s to low 60s. Southerly flow is expected to return by late Monday, so an increase in temperatures is expected by mid-week. Rain chances return Monday through midweek as upper- level disturbance move through the region. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another persistence forecast with VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds prevailing though sunset. Winds begin to decrease after sunset (down to around 5-8kt inland, near 10-15kt at the coast) with MVFR CIGs (1500-2500ft) returning around 5-6z that will prevail through the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. There may be a brief period around 11-13z where CIGs will lower to IFR levels (down to around 700ft) near CXO and UTS, but will return to MVFR-levels through the remainder of the morning. CIGs will scatter out to VFR across the region between 16-18z. Southerly winds 10-15kt (and some higher gusts) return across the region by the late morning and will continue through the remainder of the day. Isolated light streamer showers will be possible during the morning and early afternoon hours, but will be too isolated to include in the TAFs. Winds will again decrease after sunset, and a return to MVFR conditions is expected again Thursday night into Friday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Onshore flow of around 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt near the coast will persist through Saturday afternoon. Because of the expected gusts to near 20kt, small craft should exercise caution in the Bays and nearshore waters on Thursday. Another lowering of the winds is expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning, but increase again to 15-20kt Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Seas will continue to be 2-4ft through Friday night. An approaching cold front will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with showers possibly lingering through Sunday morning. The cold front will usher in strong northeasterly to east-northeasterly winds (20-25kt with gusts to 30kt) Saturday night into Sunday evening. This will cause seas to build to 5-8ft with occasional seas to 10ft in the waters beyond 40nm. Easterly winds around 15-20kt will continue into Monday with 4-6ft seas continuing into midweek. The persistent onshore winds will lead to elevated tide levels through Saturday with high tides rising to around 3.0ft above MLLW. Moderate to strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches will also be likely. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 88 / 10 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Fowler  462 FXUS63 KOAX 160507 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1207 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger on Thursday, particularly in northeast Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All severe weather hazards will be possible. - Colder air arrives Friday night into this weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper-level trough that resulted in severe weather across the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon is departing our region to the east. In its wake, surface high pressure is building into the region. As a result, quiet weather conditions consisting of light winds and clear skies have overspread the area. Excellent radiation cooling allows temperatures to fall into the 40s for a cool start to Thursday. As we go through the day on Thursday, our next weather system will approach the northern Rockies. This supports the return of lee troughing across the Great Plains. In response, increasing southerly to southwesterly winds overspread the region. Temperatures quickly warm into the 80s by afternoon as relative humidities crater into the teens and 20s across much of the region. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of northeast Nebraska through the afternoon into the early evening. By Friday, the aforementioned weather system will already be moving into the area. A fast moving cold front is forecast to be entering northeast Nebraska by Friday morning. This front may begin to slow with daytime heating, but the latest high- resolution guidance has the cold front reaching far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. With the timing of the front being a bit faster and potentially uncertain, the temperature forecast is also uncertain. Ahead of the front will remain warm, similar to Thursday, while much cooler air moves in behind the front. With the fast moving front, strong forcing for ascent should produce showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is a risk severe thunderstorms, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon. With the trend towards a faster front, this threat may be decreasing as a result. Showers may linger behind the front into the evening and overnight hours on Friday. If precipitation can hang around into Saturday morning, a few snowflakes may mix in as well. Thankfully, no impacts are expected with this. As eluded to above, much colder weather begins the weekend. Portions of northeast Nebraska may see a Spring freeze Saturday morning. Elsewhere, sees middle to upper 30s during the morning hours. Temperatures only warm into the 50s Saturday afternoon with this colder airmass. Temperatures plummet further by Sunday morning with a widespread freeze likely. This freeze is before our typical last Spring freeze date, but recent green-up of vegetation may result in vegetation damage despite this. Temperatures quickly rebound by Sunday afternoon as upper-level ridging builds in. Temperatures climb back into the 70s to near 80 heading into next week. All is quiet weather-wise, until the middle of next week, when our next potential weather maker is forecast to breakdown the ridge. Thunderstorms chances are likely to return with this system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with mostly clear skies. Winds will remain southerly, with gusts of 20-25 kts beginning toward mid-day. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...CA  867 FXUS63 KLBF 160509 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in a return to critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return. - Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night with some light accumulating snow. - Moderate confidence in below freezing temperatures Friday night which may result in widespread freeze conditions. - Moderate confidence in warmer temperatures returning to by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 With the majority of the precipitation pushed east of the region, weak ridging will continue to build back into the central Plains. This will bring drier and warmer conditions once again across much of the region for Thursday. A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 85 degrees to be nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher for areas east of US-83. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8) with SoT above 0 across portions of north central Nebraska. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Current records sit at 89 for North Platte and 91 at Broken Bow, Valentine, and Imperial. The latest probability suggests maximum temperatures over 90 degrees to be highest (near 45 percent) across extreme north central Nebraska. Therefore, outside of this region (O'Neill area), not expecting highs to rise to near or over 90... therefore records not expected to be broken. However, would not be surprised to see a slight increase in highs over the going forecasted highs as the warming trend continues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. A brief period of rain Thursday night is expected across northwest Nebraska before changing over to all snow as temperatures drop below freezing and remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult during the daytime. Further to the south and east, precipitation will not arrive until Friday afternoon as the trough pushes east. Precip type will generally start off as rain, but as the colder air behind the trough filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. At this time, any snow accumulations should be around or under a half inch, mainly across areas west of Highway 61. The majority of the precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and skies clearing out shortly after Midnight CT. This leads to the next major weather concern in the long term. As precipitation comes to an end and skies clear and combine with cold air filtering into the region, surface low temperatures will plummet to below freezing. Lows in the 20s will be likely across much of the region with portions of the Pine Ridge and eastern Panhandle even dropping into the upper teens. While temperatures across much of the region will have lows in the mid 20s, a freeze watch Friday night will only encompass areas generally south of Highway 2 Friday night where these areas have seen some growing already started and many pivots and sprinklers have been turned on. Temperatures will remain below normals on Saturday with highs only rising into the 50s. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be chilly once again, but a few degrees warmer than Friday night. At this time not anticipating any freeze headlines, but they may be necessary as overnight lows still drop into the mid 20s across the forecast area. Heading into the latter half of the weekend and into next week, upper level ridging remains in place across the western US with surface high pressure across the central Plains allowing for dry conditions to prevail. Persistent warm air advection into the region will allow for a decent warming trend through the beginning of next week. High temperatures will easily rise back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday with lows returning into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Expect a few to scattered high clouds to drift across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Winds will become southwesterly late this morning and will gust up to 30 KTS through the afternoon hours. A slight decrease in wind speed is expected this evening with an abrupt shift in wind direction to the northwest after 04z Friday for the KVTN terminal. The wind shift will hold off until after the forecast period for the KLBF terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Thursday as RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 15 percent for much of the region with some locations across south central Nebraska dropping to near 10 percent. South southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts across the rest of the area up to 25 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from late Thursday morning through late evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will recover to over 70 percent for much of the region as the next weather system pushes into the region bringing some light precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday. QPF values will remain under a tenth inch (0.10) for areas mainly west of US-83, with lesser amounts to the east. After a brief respite on Friday, humidity values drop back to 15 percent or lower on Saturday continuing into next week, therefore elevated to near critical fire conditions will return on Saturday. With the dry conditions and increasing warming temperatures combined with low RH into next week, critical fire conditions will return through at least Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NEZ204-206-208>210- 219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Buttler FIRE WEATHER...Kulik  333 FXUS64 KLUB 160509 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Warm and breezy with critical fire danger on both Thursday and Friday. - A few storms are possible Friday night off the Caprock. - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. 7 && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry weather will continue through the overnight period and during the day on Thursday as surface flow maintains a notable westerly component, keeping low level moisture well to our east. Flow aloft will gradually begin backing on Thursday ahead of the next upper level system transiting over the intermountain west, but with broad surface troughing set to persist over SE CO and the TX Panhandle which will delay the onset of moisture return across our region. Southwest winds are expected to be a bit stronger on Thursday afternoon compared to the past couple of days, which combined with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and RH values below 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock on Thursday afternoon. Surface flow will finally back towards a more southerly direction Thursday night which will quickly pull some shallow moisture northward into our region by early Friday. As this moisture return occurs, a bit of lift associated with a modest low level jet could be sufficient to generate a few showers or storms overnight Thursday through early Friday. However, this is appearing increasingly unlikely given the rather weak forcing and plentiful convective inhibition in place over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will begin on the humid side, but surface moisture will quickly mix out as stronger southwesterly low level flow develops in response to deepening troughing ahead of a strong cold front descending southward through KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles. Winds will become solidly breezy by Friday afternoon which will bring another day of critical fire weather conditions to most of the region. The above-mentioned cold front is then expected to pass southward through the region near or just after sunset, bringing a shift to strong north winds along with a sharp cooldown Friday night. For the majority of the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage. However, a few storms may still develop off the Caprock Friday night as the front intersects the retreating dryline in addition to increasing upper level forcing for ascent. Plentiful instability and 50+ kt bulk shear magnitudes could result in some of these storms becoming severe late Friday night in this area, especially over the eastern Rolling Plains. Dry and relatively cool weather is expected area-wide throughout the upcoming weekend as a ~1025mb surface ridge builds over the region, with a light freeze not out of the question over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. By early next week, model consensus favors modest upper level ridging building over our area ahead of a deep low off the CA/OR coast. A few weak disturbances beneath the ridge combined with returning low level moisture may bring a few showers or storms to the region on Monday, but the bulk of this activity looks likely to remain to our south and east. Warmer temperatures then return Tuesday and beyond with a dry forecast currently favored through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Winds will remain light through dawn, with winds transitioning towards the southwest by 17Z and becoming breezy at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Winds will then back to the south Thursday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southwest winds will strengthen by late Thursday morning and become quite breezy through the rest of the day. Sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected across most of the Caprock Thursday afternoon which combined with minimum RH values in the single digits will result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM Thursday for most areas on the Caprock. Slightly weaker winds off the Caprock will keep fire danger in the elevated category east of the escarpment, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect there from 12 PM to 8 PM as well. Similar conditions are expected Friday, although winds will likely be a bit stronger compared to Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of the region on Friday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  058 FXUS64 KLIX 160509 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through Saturday. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Most visibilities should remain greater than 1/4 mile, so a dense fog advisory is not expected. But, patchy dense fog could occur around sunrise this and friday morning especially around river systems. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Diddo as the last several days through Saturday. A cold front will begin to add some interest to the fcast by sunset Saturday. We should see this front beginning to enter the area around sunset Sat evening. There will be some sh/ts associated as it enters the area. But these will begin to decay as the system moves SE. After sunset and before midnight Sat, a new short wave will kick out of the long wave upper trough along the front edge of the sfc thermal belt, which will help give some extra help to lift, producing a good amount of sh/ts with some heavy rain. But as the front out paces this disturbance, the area of sh/ts will become elevated and eventually begin to weaken as it moves through the area after midnight and before sunrise Sun. Th storms with this feature will at first retain some heavy rainfall before getting squeezed vertically, bringing rain amounts lower as it moves SE during the morning hours. The area of sh/ts will be alleviated by noon Sunday, so a quick decline as we cross the sunrise hour Sunday. But it does look like a good portion of the area will get some much needed rainfall. The next thing noticed will be the cool down with highs only reaching the mid 70s Sunday into Monday but lows will be a bit on the chilly side by Sunday and Monday morning with mid 50s and around 50F respectively. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A fast moving northern stream trough axis and attendant cold front will slip through the region Saturday night. Moisture pooling in advance of the front will allow precipitable water values to briefly surge to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches for a few hours in the late evening and early overnight hours. This moisture will be lifted by the approaching front to create a narrow band of light to moderate rainfall and a few elevated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Fortunately, surface based instability will be very limited ahead of the front and shear will be largely non-existent. As a result, no severe weather is anticipated with this frontal passage. Instead, some much needed rainfall will move through the region. A large temperature spread exists between the various models as the timing of the front varies by a few hours, but the overall trend is weighting toward readings falling into the 50s and lower 60s by daybreak on Sunday. Any lingering rainfall for areas south of I-10 should also be quickly clearing during the morning hours on Sunday. The strength of the high pressure system and cold pool building into the region will support some breezier conditions after the front moves through late Saturday night into Sunday, but winds will remain below any wind advisory levels. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler than average, but very pleasant, as highs climb into the low to mid 70s. Sunday night through Tuesday will see a combination of strong negative vorticity and dry air advection into the region as a shortwave ridge axis builds in from the west and deep layer northerly flow persists. The end result will be largely clear skies, low humidity, and a large diurnal temperature range. The one area of potential concern will be the amount of dry air that mixes down to the surface Monday afternoon and how strong winds may be at that time. Minimum RH values are projected to fall to between 25 and 30 percent over portions of southern Mississippi and the Northshore of southeast Louisiana, and these values may be on the higher end. Winds are also projected to be close to 15 mph, so some red flag conditions may be met for a few hours. This will be monitored over the next couple of days to see if the lower humidity trends change. Temperatures will range a good 25 to 30 degrees each day with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday night before climbing into the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday will see similar conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday, the pattern will shift as a strong surface to mid-level ridge develops over the southeast CONUS. This will place the region in an extended period of southeast flow from the Gulf. A plume of higher theta e air and higher PWATS will feed into east Texas and western Louisiana during this period of time, and the main focus for heavier rainfall will be confined to those areas. However, just enough instability and moisture in the low to mid-levels as noted by surface based CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/KG and PWATS rising to around 1.25 inches will be sufficient to allow some low topped convection to form during peak heating hours Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A strong mid-level capping inversion at 700mb will prohibit deeper convection from developing as the influence from a southern Plains ridge axis feeds some drier air aloft into the Lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures will also continue to warm on the back of the onshore flow from the Gulf with readings rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overall, a return to a more humid and warmer stretch of weather is expected as we move into the latter half of next week. (PG) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR to IFR cigs will remain until a few hours after sunrise today. Otherwise, the remainder of the day will be VFR. Tonight will have cigs start out in VFR and slowly lower to MVFR within a few hours of sunrise, then lower to IFR rapidly around sunrise Fri morning. Vis will be much like the last few days with a few sites having IFR to MVFR conditions temporarily around sunrise this and Fri morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf through Saturday. A cold front is expected to move through the northern gulf bringing northerly winds Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...PG MARINE...TE  902 FXUS61 KPBZ 160510 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms today north of Pittsburgh with much lesser chance farther south. Damaging wind is the main threat although large hail and a tornado are possible. Training thunderstorms may pose a localized flooding threat. 2) Thursday features a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms with isolated damaging wind possible. After a break Friday, a stronger front could bring more severe weather Saturday. 3) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly broken, especially today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of early morning convection, scattered cloud coverage remains with increasing southwest surface flow. Said convection has left an outflow boundary slowly sagging south past the Pittsburgh metro as of mid-morning. As southwest flow strengthens into this afternoon, expect that that boundary likely gets pushed back to the north while the ambient environment recovers markedly during the daylight hours. Dew points are not much higher to the south, so don't expect strong moisture advection today with dew points likely not moving much from their upper 50s/low 60s this morning. The axis of highest deep layer moisture content, featuring precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, will lie north of I-70. This is where the bulk of the storm activity and severe potential is forecast to occur this afternoon and evening. Along with some measure of surface heating into the low 80s, this should allow surface-based CAPE to easily reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range according to HREF means. High-end potential, contingent on more clearing, exists to reach north of 2000 J/kg north of Pittsburgh, and trends may be pointing in this direction with HREF cloud coverage in the 50-70% range and actual observations trending much less. Deep shear will be improved as compared to yesterday, reaching the 35-40 knot range for 0-6 km values. The highest confidence storm initiation likely occurs to our west after 3pm along and ahead of a cluster pushing through the lower Great Lakes region, perhaps aided by a weak mid-level wave, with activity spreading east. There could also be initiation along the aforementioned outflow boundary and other remnant boundaries from convection yesterday. As convective temperature of 75F is met this afternoon, that raises a conditional low confidence/higher severity earlier initiation along the remnant boundaries that could pose an all hazards risk with brief discrete mode before quickly growing upscale; better potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two accompanies this north of Pittsburgh where low-level SRH is maximized, LCLs are a bit lower, and CAPE in the hail growth zone is more abundant. What may inhibit this is a persistent warm layer on latest PIT ACARS soundings from 700-800 mb that would need stronger forcing and repeated updraft attempts to erode. The later storm mode favors quickly congealing segments/bows as noted by several recent HRRR/RRFS runs bringing a damaging wind threat. The unchanged SPC day 1 outlook remains in good agreement with the above, leaving a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) in place north of I-70 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) down to about I-70. With deep layer mean flow nearly due westerly and initiation along boundaries oriented roughly west-east, training of storms is possible that could lead to flash flooding. This, again, is most likely north of Pittsburgh in the high PWAT axis. HREF max 1 hour QPF reaches north of 1" for a few consecutive hours later tonight suggesting the threat for training storms dumping inch per hour rates. While the severe threat should largely subside by midnight due to diurnal stabilization, upstream convection could once again impact the region overnight into Thursday morning, at least in a weakening state. Such convection is tricky to time and depends at least partially on leftover boundaries from earlier activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday, as Great Lakes low pressure drags a weak frontal boundary across the region. Coverage may be more widespread with some better mid-level forcing just downstream of a shortwave riding through the Great Lakes, but the environment it has to work with looks less potent. Although deep shear will be similar to Wednesday, more widespread cloud cover may hinder the buildup of instability. Poor low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow and poor mid-level lapse rates point to lower tornado and hail potential leaving isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms. The SPC day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area was expanded to cover most of the forecast area north and west of Morgantown. A southern stream shortwave dipping into the Tennessee Valley will finally dislodge the southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. We should get a break from the daily convective cycle as brief shortwave ridging traverses overhead. It'll be short lived though before one last round of strong to severe storms will arrive with a stronger cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. While details remain fuzzy, this feature should provide the strongest lift we've seen in the past week, so favorable timing would point toward a heightened severe threat. Timing of the front is still uncertain and dependent on tilt and progression of the mid-level wave with AI models suggesting late afternoon and some ensemble clusters as late as after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3... An anomalously strong (500mb heights at the 99th percentile) and stubborn ridge remains centered over Florida and extending across the southeast CONUS into Thursday before being weakened some by upstream shortwave activity. It still appears that today will feature the best chances of record-breaking temperatures. Warm and moist southwest flow today will push 850mb temperatures into the 14 to 16C range, which, assuming good mixing and lesser cloud coverage, would top out MaxTs in the low 80s. Such temperatures are most likely south of Pittsburgh away from the ridges while areas to the north feature more cloud cover and better precipitation chances. This is reflected in NBM temperature record probabilities for today. Sites PHD (shorter climate record), HLG, and MGW all have 85% or greater probability of reaching record highs today according to statistical guidance. Probabilities for ZZV and PIT are lower (~50%). There are also decent probabilities both today and Thursday for record warm minimum temperatures, with PIT, PHD, and HLG featuring 70% or greater chance of setting such standards both days. Thursday remains warm, with 60% or greater probability of temperatures of 80 or higher south of I-80, but this may be a bit overdone with higher probability for more areawide cloud cover and showers and storms which may hinder the potential of record highs (probabilities drop below 30% areawide). The next best shot for these may be Saturday, with perhaps some sun and southwest flow ahead of an approaching front, but timing of the front will dictate how high temperatures get. The warmth definitively ends by Sunday behind this boundary. Minor heat risk continues areawide today and Thursday before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will be notable to all with this being the first warm up of the year. Speckled moderate risk areas are indicated today and Thursday especially, mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areawide VFR is expected under mid-level clouds through the overnight and morning hours. Continued isolated showery activity is expected for FKL/DUJ through about sunrise today. Cloud decks will begin to lower in the afternoon hours in front of an approaching cold front, but VFR CIGs are expected to hold firm. A line of broken strong to severe storms are expected along the cold front. These storms can bring brief bouts of MVFR restrictions or a few dips to IFR. It is possible for there to be 2 lines of storms, with one along a pre-frontal trough. Altogether, CAMs are in good agreement on a ~20z approach towards the PA/OH border. Timing has been broken down with prevailing groups showing the greatly increased confidence in timing of these storms as opposed to prior days. Behind the cold front VFR CIGs can return in VCSH or limited VCTS activity before CIGs are expected to begin to fall as we approach sunrise on Friday. Winds will be gusty across the region Thursday, with Swerly gusts between 20-25 kts for most ports ahead of the frontal passage. Behind the front, winds shift to more westerly and remain gusty for a couple hours before subsiding. Outlook... Friday should be mostly dry following Thursday evening's weak frontal passage. However, another low pressure system and a stronger cold front approach the area on Saturday, returning shower and thunderstorm chances (and associated restrictions) to the region through the weekend. Dry weather and VFR conditions are then favored as we head into early next week with a pattern shift following the weekend cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB/CL AVIATION...Cermak/AK  268 FXUS65 KPSR 160512 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1010 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy conditions will return the next several days with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused around the Lower Colorado River Valley. - After a brief stint of near and below normal temperatures over the next few days, readings will rebound with widespread afternoon highs in the 90s expected by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current objective analysis reveals a very active pattern for the central and western tier of the CONUS will multiple disturbance embedded in the broader flow. Meanwhile for the Desert Southwest, rather benign weather will exist through at least the next couple of days as low amplitude ridge overspreads the region. After yesterday, when we saw our first day with an average temperature below normal since the beginning of March, and only the 11th such day this year, temperatures will bounce back upwards closer to normal thanks to the warmer atmospheric profile. Lower desert highs this afternoon will hover in the middle to upper 80s, while higher elevations locales can expect values in the 70s to lower 80s. A potent Pacific trough currently spinning over Southern British Columbia and Northern Washington will work its way further to the south and east, traversing the the Intermountain West Thursday. At the same time, another weaker system will be developing west of the Baja Peninsula. Both of these features will have at least some minor influences on our weather on Thursday as the northern system begins to tighten our regional pressure gradient slightly, and the southern low throws some upper-level moisture toward the region. The expectation is that some marginal breeziness will develop for higher elevation spots and the Lower Colorado River Valley with peak gusts 20-25 mph with some higher gusts for the typical windy spots of Southwestern Imperial County. The previously mentioned moisture will yield only some high cloud cover, but that could have an impact on temperatures depending on how optically thick it becomes. Current NBM highs call for readings in the middle to upper 80s for the lower elevations, with perhaps a few spots reaching 90 degrees. However, it would not be surprising if temperatures underachieve due to the lower insolation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance over the past couple of runs has shifted the track of the Pacific trough a bit farther to the north with the track of the main shortwave across Utah into Colorado. However, it should still be close enough to our area to bring a period of northerly windy conditions down the Lower CO River Valley during the first half of Friday while also resulting in a noticeable cooldown. Wind gusts Friday morning across southeast California and the Lower CO River Valley are likely to reach Advisory level in some spots before gradually weakening during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere Friday, afternoon wind gusts should be similar to Thursday with gusts mostly under 25 mph. The latest NBM forecast highs Friday have actually dropped a degree or two from previous runs with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the western deserts to the lower 80s across south-central Arizona. The weather pattern into the weekend and early next week supports another passing ridge with the expectation this ridge will last a bit longer and have more influence on temperatures. The weekend shows very low RHs with readings dipping into the single digits during the afternoon across the lower deserts, while temperatures warm back to near 90 degrees Saturday before topping out in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Ensembles then favor a deep Pacific low dropping southward off of Oregon and northern California late Sunday and Monday before eventually moving inland somewhere across the Great Basin or even the Desert Southwest by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Assuming this occurs, the system would lower temperatures again going into the middle of next week, but it is unlikely to result in any meaningful precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No significant weather issues will exist through Thursday night under developing high cirrus cigs. Timing of directional wind shifts should be similar to the past 24 hours, although west winds will be maintained around the Phoenix metro longer into Thursday night than usual. Wind speeds from the mid afternoon through early evening will be stronger than the past several days with occasional gusts 15-20kt across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gradual drying conditions will prevail over the next couple of days as temperatures return into a normal range. Winds today will again be light while MinRHs fall to 10-15%. Thursday will bring an increase in winds by the afternoon with occasional gusts between 20- 25 mph for much of the area. MinRHs Thursday will also fall into the upper single digits across the lower deserts. Locally windy conditions across the western districts on Friday are likely to bring elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions late morning into the afternoon. Warmer temperatures, even drier conditions, but lighter winds are then expected for the coming weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  463 FXUS63 KUNR 160512 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1112 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for Thursday. - Cold front moves through later Thursday, bringing rain/snow behind it. - Warming trend over the weekend with mostly dry conditions Saturday through middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper level analysis shows 500hpa wave/trof east of the Dakotas with abundant convection firing from OK northeast through OK/AR,IL into WI and MI. Upper flow has turned SW over the region as next closed 500hpa low/long-wave trof drops into Pac NW. Noted earlier in the evening a few lightning strikes in ID as lead wave ejects out ahead of this system. At the surface, weak surface low pressure is located across western SD as noted in surface wind field and earlier returns on the KUDX radar. Temps at 03z are still fairly mild, generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s with winds 15 mph or less. Mid to high level cloudiness is streaming over the area in the SW flow aloft. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50 still look to be on track. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions still look to be in store for Thursday across our southern and south central zones, as gusty southwest to west winds set up along with above seasonal temps and low relative humidity. There is some question now about the cold frontal timing, as it appears to be slowing down ever so slightly when compared to earlier runs, but by only 3 or so hours at most. This may be an issue with onset of pcpn probabilities as well as reach of fire weather conditions. Relative humidities still fall into the mid teens during the afternoon hours across the Red Flag Warning area, so right now see no reason to alter. As the cold front comes through, widespread pcpn still looks favorable with many places seeing at least 0.05”, and possibly up to 0.35” or higher QPF. Deterministic models are continue to show a favored snow belt from northeast WY, northern Black Hills and into northwest SD. As previous fcst stated, snow amounts are tricky after warm period, how much sticks to ground and how long it actually snows. Will continue to forego any winter wx headlines attm. Main area of pcpn will move out during the day on Friday, however temps will remain chilly in the Friday and Saturday time frame. Sunday will see some warmer weather return ahead of a more unsettled pattern returning for next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over southeastern SD, with a weak surface trough stretching from northwest SD down into eastern Wyoming. Upper air analysis depicts shortwave over NE/KS region, upper low over the PAC NW, with near west/east flow over the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the 60s to low 70s, with light winds. Recent satellite images show mid/high clouds expanding into the forecast area from the west. Elevated to near-critical fire weather parameters continue this afternoon, as warm and dry conditions persist. Thursday will see some areas reach critical fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front, as temperatures reach into the 70s and low 80s, with winds 15 to 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Cold front moves through from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into the evening, bringing gusty northwest winds and chances for rain/snow through mid-day Friday. Any accumulating snow amounts will be tricky given the time of year, and temperatures hanging near freezing for some areas. Highest potential for accumulating snowfall is expected in parts of northeastern Wyoming into the central and northern Black Hills, where NBM probability of 2" or more ranges between 30 to 70 percent. Widespread light QPF is expected, with the highest ranges (0.05" - 0.4") stretching from northeastern WY into northwestern SD. Current model runs show a small potential for low end Winter Weather Advisory headline for some areas Thursday night, but again chances are small. Main precipitation event moves out mid-day Friday, but some light precipitation could linger for some areas (generally Black Hills into southwest SD) into Saturday. After this system moves through, mostly dry conditions return late Saturday through middle of next week. Upper ridge builds over the western CONUS through the weekend as well, resulting in a warming trend back to 10-20F above normal. Longer range models point to the potential for more active weather the latter half of next week, but will have to wait and see how model agreement works out. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1103 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the early morning. The cold front is forecasted to arrive slightly later than prior, now expected at KGCC around 18Z and KRAP around 23Z. Small chances for rain showers will follow the front at both sites. However, KGCC conditions will degrade toward MFVR as rain transitions to snow around 17/00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1230 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across much of the area as RH falls into the teens to low 20s. Best overlap of low RH and stronger winds forecast across southern Campbell and Weston Counties in WY through southwestern SD. Conditions remain below thresholds for any fire weather highlights today. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday for the Weston County plains through southern SD as stronger southwest winds will develop ahead of a cold front. Daytime minimum RH will fall as low as 12-14 percent Thursday. Timing of the cold front as well as mid-level clouds ahead of the front and spotty high- based showers may complicate things a bit by keeping temperatures a bit cooler and RH higher. However, plan for at least elevated to near- critical conditions Thursday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335. WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ317. && $$ UPDATE...Hintz DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Schweigert FIRE WEATHER...Dye  586 FXUS65 KBOU 160515 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1115 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and the potential for snow for most locations. - Hard freeze Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees for much of the plains on Thursday. Winds tomorrow will turn more to the south/southwest, with gusts around 20 to 35 mph. Breezy winds combined with RHs in the single digits to low teens across the plains will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for tomorrow afternoon for the southern Foothills, Palmer Divide, and areas generally east of the Urban Corridor and south of US 34. A strong cold front will move through late Thursday through early Friday. Winds behind the front will be strong from the north, with gusts around 35 to 50mph overnight. Much colder temperatures and the potential for some snow accumulations will follow behind the front. Snow chances will increase for the mountains overnight Thursday into Friday, with snow chances spilling into the plains early Friday into Friday afternoon as an upper level trough moves into the area. We're a little concerned about the potential for anticyclonic upslope and convergence against the southern Foothills and Palmer Divide. This combined with strong 700mb frontogenesis in these areas for the late morning and early afternoon could lead to heavier snowfall than currently forecast. We increased snowfall amounts in these areas to account for this potential, but amounts may need to be adjusted up further if banding potential becomes more prominent. Most likely snowfall totals across the urban corridor, northern I-25 corridor, and east is a trace to around 2 inches of snow. The most likely amounts in the Foothills and Palmer Divide area are more in the 1 to 4 inch range, however there is a low chance (~10%) that amounts could approach around 8 inches in portions of this area. The mountains are looking at most likely accumulations around 2 to 8 inches. With how warm the road temperatures will be to start this event in the Foothills and plains (and the more borderline freezing temperatures during the afternoon), accumulations on roadways should be limited. Snow chances will begin to taper off in the evening as the upper level trough moves through and subsidence builds in behind it. At the surface winds will begin to weaken and temperatures are forecast to drop significantly overnight. Minimum temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 20s across the plains Saturday morning, with colder temperatures in the mountains and across the Palmer. This will lead to a hard freeze, potentially impacting sprinkler systems and plants which have started to bud. A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of the plains for Saturday morning. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area between the exiting trough and a strong upper low over the West Coast. A warming trend will begin Saturday, with highs increasing into the lower 80s for portions of the plains by Tuesday afternoon. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through this period. Things start to get a bit more uncertain on Wednesday as models try to figure out how that upper low will move into the central U.S., but a majority of the ensemble members keep the plains dry and give a low chance of precip for the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/... Issued at 624 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions through the end of the forecast period. Winds have started to weaken but remain primarily from the west across the region with a few NW gusts lingering at KAPA. Winds will gradually become variable around sunset before transitioning to the usual SW-SSW drainage flow this evening. Drainage winds will be in place through Thursday morning and likely remain southwest for most of the day before taking on more of a westerly component around 20Z-23Z. Brief periods of 20KT gusts could be possible late in the afternoon as well. We expect a cold frontal passage to bring a northerly wind shift to the area sometime between 05Z and 07Z on Thursday evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ214-216- 241-245>247-249. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AA  666 FXUS65 KPUB 160516 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1116 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday, with portions of the southern plains added to a Fire Weather Watch for Friday. - A cold front arrives Friday, which will bring rain and snow chances, along with much colder temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for all of our plains for early Saturday morning! - We warm up and dry out for Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight.. Gap flow areas are likely to continue seeing spotty elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon. The San Luis Valley and the Arkansas River Valley may also see briefly critical conditions late this afternoon, but conditions are not expected to be widespread or long-lived enough to warrant any fire weather highlights. Overnight low temperatures will be near normal in the high country and for mountain valleys, but will be warmer than normal across the plains, with most locations only cooling into the upper 30s and 40s. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.. Models bring an upper low into the northern Rockies throughout the day tomorrow. This will increase southwest flow over our region, leading to a higher end Red Flag day for much of south central and southeast Colorado. Southwest winds gusting to 60 mph are likely over the high country, with gusts to 50 mph possible over portions of the San Luis Valley, and gusts to 40 mph over the plains. Single digit relative humidity values are expected on the plains, with humidity values in the low to mid teens over the high country and the San Luis Valley. Daytime highs tomorrow look to soar back into the mid 80s across much of the plains with strong downsloping over the region. Despite seeing temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, all three of our climate sites look to be at least 4 or 5 degrees below standing records for tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most zones (only the San Juans are excluded) for tomorrow afternoon from 11 AM through 11 PM. The late expiration time is due to continued gusty winds and continued mixing late into the night. Much of our plains look to only see moisture recoveries into the 20% range heading into Friday morning, however, the timing of our incoming cold front could change that.. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday and Saturday.. Models are still in disagreement about timing for the cold front that should come through sometime on Friday. The GFS has now pushed timing all the way up into the late Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. The NAM, EC, and Canadian all have various timing ranging from early Friday morning to later Friday afternoon. This frontal passage timing will ultimately decide several things. Most importantly, it will determine critical fire weather chances versus precipitation chances across portions of our plains. If model solutions that bring the front through earlier verify, daytime highs may end up being cooler than currently forecast, and precip chances may end up starting slightly earlier in the afternoon on Friday as well once upslope gets started. If the front is delayed, daytime highs may end up being several degrees warmer, especially across our southern plains, and widespread critical fire weather conditions may also be possible. For now, a fire weather watch has been issued for Las Animas and Baca counties for Friday afternoon, where the front is most likely to come through late enough in the day to warrant several hours or highlights in the late morning and early afternoon. Further north, where the front comes through earlier, chances for rain and snow showers look to hold off for several hours after the frontal passage as temperatures cool and upslope gets going. The central mountains are likely to see snow showers early Friday morning, with much of the Pikes Peak region seeing light snow chances later in the morning. Snow amounts will be minimal over the Palmer Divide for the Friday morning commute, though again this may change if the front comes through sooner. Total accumulations for the central mountains from Thursday night through Saturday morning look to be around 1 to 3 inches, with similar totals for the higher elevations of Teller and El Paso counties. The heaviest snowfall rates for the I-25 corridor over the Palmer Divide look to fall Friday afternoon as of this writing. Precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning though, with lots of clearing across the region. This system is much colder than what we've seen this season, and our entire plains are likely to see hard freeze conditions after vegetation has bloomed/leafed out across the region due to abnormally warm conditions the past few months. For this reason, a Freeze Watch has been hoisted for all of our plains for Saturday morning. Though we are several week ahead of our "normal" window for issuance of late season freeze highlights, we want to point out that sensitive vegetation and irrigation systems will be at risk this weekend! We remain around 5 degrees or so cooler than normal heading into Saturday afternoon, with most of our plains only warming into the 60s under clearing skies and mainly dry conditions. Just for awareness, the mean date of last freeze for our climate sites are as follows: Pueblo: April 29th Colorado Springs: May 8th Alamosa: June 7th Sunday Onwards.. Ridging sets up over the western conus for Sunday through the first half of next week. This will bring us back into the 70s on the plains for Sunday as we transition into a warming and drying pattern, but likely back well into the 80s for Monday through Wednesday. Humidity values look to be very low given the dry airmass and much warmer than normal temperatures, but winds look to be sub- critical, at least for Sunday and Monday, as ridging develops. Another system takes shape out west through the second half of the week, which may lead to enough increase in southwest flow to bring in another round of critical fire weather conditions by Wednesday, or possibly even Tuesday, though it is too early to tell at this stage. Thunderstorms and severe weather may be possible with this next system later next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light tonight into tomorrow morning, but will become breezy from the south to southwest during the afternoon at each of the taf sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>222-224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...HODANISH  186 FXUS63 KILX 160517 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50-70% chance for scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Some of these storms could be severe, including heavy rainfall. - There is another risk for severe storms late Friday evening through Saturday. - Much cooler weather returns this weekend. There is a low chance for frost Saturday night north of Interstate 70, and a higher chance areawide Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms extend from southern Wisconsin to southwest Missouri early this evening. While the main shortwave is moving through eastern Nebraska, some more subtle impulses are helping to fuel the ongoing storms. Latest HRRR runs have been struggling with some consistency on the overall trends, but the bigger severe threat in our CWA will be west of I-55 into late evening. Main forecast updates have been to tweak the rain chances through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A shortwave trough over the central Plains will pivot into western Iowa this evening and serve as one of the main forcing mechanisms for thunderstorm development across a good portion of the central US this evening, including central Illinois. Lingering rain showers will continue to impact parts of eastern and southeast Illinois this afternoon, with a lull in precipitation further west. Several shortwave impulses ahead of the main upper wave may bring periods of showers and storms working across the area from late afternoon into this evening with the latest CAMs showing isolated activity spreading in as early as 21Z/4 pm west of the Illinois River. Environmental conditions have been slow to improve due to widespread cloud cover from morning storms. RAP forecast analysis suggests SBCAPE will approach 1500 J/kg in western Illinois over the next few hours with deep layer shear up around 40 kts, which is sufficient for storm organization. Although the main surface front remains displaced off to our north, better forcing from the approaching wave should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Hodographs favor supercell/multicellular storm modes, posing a threat for all severe hazards. Although timing and coverage of late afternoon/early evening storms remains low, CAM output becomes more consistent later this evening as a linear MCS works through the area as the surface front nears. Although instability will wane some by then, the threat for damaging winds will still be a threat. Heavy rain is also a concern through tonight, especially over areas that picked up 1-2"+ this morning (along a Rushville to Bloomington line). Warm cloud depths, high PWATs, and the potential for repeating rounds of storms could lead to a localized flash flooding threat. The 15.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows pockets of 2"+ over parts of the area, though confidence in the exact location of these amounts remains low. A break from storms is expected on Thursday as large-scale subsidence overspreads the area behind the departing upper shortwave. However, the threat for more thunderstorms returns Friday evening into Saturday as a compact upper shortwave tracks through the Upper Mississippi Valley and sends a cold front through the area. The front looks to approach the Mississippi River Friday evening then work through central Illinois during the overnight hours. The highest risk for severe weather is currently expected just west of here where instability and shear will be strongest during a diurnally favorable time. However, sufficient CAPE/shear parameters through the overnight hours could still support the development of scattered severe storms. Temperatures turn much cooler by the weekend. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights look to dip down into the middle to upper 30s, which introduces the possibility for frost. Chances are lower Saturday night due to lingering cloud cover and breezier winds, with higher chances Sunday night when winds are lighter. Temperatures moderate by the middle parts of next week as upper ridging amplifies over the west-central US. Precipitation chances look minimal through much of next week with global models hinting at a wetter pattern setting up by the end of next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Area of rain will exit the eastern terminals over the next hour or so. There is a low (20-40% chance) that MVFR stratocu will develop near/after daybreak, otherwise conditions will be VFR through the forecast. Southwest winds will remain gusty near 25 kt until late afternoon, then go light as surface ridging builds in. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA UPDATE...Geelhart DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...25  492 FXUS63 KTOP 160518 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible (20-40%) mainly along and southeast of I-35 late this afternoon with hail and wind as primary threats. - A better setup for severe storms comes Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards are possible, but plenty of uncertainty remains. - Much cooler this weekend with some frost/freeze potential, then moderating temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Upper trough axis is moving across the Central Plains this afternoon with VAD wind profilers showing a 40-60 kt speed max associated with this wave. Next trough is noted off the PNW coast. At the surface, low pressure sits near the MO River Valley with a dryline extending south from northeast through east central KS, followed by a weak cold front coming from north central KS. The scattering of this morning's cloud cover has allowed for the atmosphere ahead of the dryline to destabilize with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kts of effective bulk shear, per SPC mesoanalysis. A majority of the CAMs have isolated to scattered storms developing along the dryline by 21z mostly east of the forecast area, except perhaps areas southeast of I-35. The NAM Nest has consistently been slightly earlier and further west with initiation, probably because it is slower to bring the dry air east. Based on soundings from the RAP, HRRR, and RRFS, it appears that by the time better forcing arrives from the front and upper-level support, low levels dry out and become less supportive of thunderstorms. Whether or not we see any severe storms this afternoon will depend on whether all the ingredients can come together in time before the dryline pushes east. It's a short time window (3-5pm) for this to occur before storms are likely to be east of the area entirely. Thursday gives us a bit of a break in between the two systems. Winds quickly turn back to the south and strengthen later in the day and especially night as lee cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the next upper trough. This increase in the low-level wind field will help to advect moisture back into the area Thursday night into Friday. Before that happens, however, we do still have a dry air mass in place Thursday afternoon particularly towards central KS. While RH looks low, conditions appear too marginal to have confidence in Red Flag criteria and join our western neighbors in fire headlines. Although it is possible for wind gusts to 20-25mph to bring elevated fire danger to north central KS for a few hours. Heading into Friday, the next upper trough progresses across the Plains as well as the next sfc low and cold front. There are still some differences in timing, which will impact the exact locations for storms. In any case, instability and shear ahead of the front would be sufficient for severe storms. Shear vectors look to have some component parallel to the upper flow and/or the orientation of the sfc front, which would point more to a line of storms developing and growing quickly upscale. With all this in mind, could see some large hail with initial storms turning to more of a damaging wind threat, possibly with embedded tornadoes. Flooding could become a risk later if storms train over the same areas. Much cooler air comes in behind the front with highs dropping back to the upper 50s to low 60s for Saturday. Lows in the 30s Saturday and especially Sunday morning bring some concern for possible frost conditions, particularly north of I-70. Upper ridging and associated height rises across the central part of the country would then favor a warming trend into the early part of next week, alongside dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 No significant changes to the going forecast for this period. The low stratus in the morning is still low confidence as the BL cools and winds calm overnight there could be a shallow layer of stratus that begins to return from the south with low level moisture not scoured out very much with the weak cold front that passed through last period. Did bump up winds for this afternoon slightly as mixing commences and the pressure gradient tightens from west to east. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Drake  592 FXUS65 KABQ 160520 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1120 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeast and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A tranquil afternoon and evening continues across New Mexico as weak west to northwest flow entrenches the state. A few northwest breezes are likely to continue through the afternoon, but will subside by sunset. Tonight looks to be clear and cool (lows in the high 30s to mid 20s) , though should be a few degrees warmer than last night given higher pressure heights and weak upper level flow preventing prime radiational cooling. Thursday turns more active with two approaching trough axes from the west. The more northern trough axis, located over UT, looks to develop a surface low in eastern CO, extending down into northeast NM. Alongside this, a minor but noted pressure gradient increases at 500mb and 700mb. These factors combined look to bring breezy to windy conditions across the state, most notably in eastern NM. Well- mixed atmospheric layers should bring about no issue in transferring the elevated 700mb flow (~30kts) to the surface. Overall, winds look to be southwest 15-25mph, except 20-30mph in northeast NM with gusts up to 40mph. Relative humidity also looks to drop into the single digits across the state, and that combination of wind and dry conditions leads to favorable conditions of rapid fire spread. Continue to be mindful about preventing sparks when outdoors. Temperatures also look to remain in the low to mid 70s across western and central NM and getting as high as the mid 80s across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Not a whole lot of rest and reprieve from the winds going into early Friday morning. A 250mb speed max, associated with the more southern trough axis mentioned in the short term, starts to encroach from the south into the forecast area. In turn, 500mb and 700mb winds also increase from south to north over time through Thursday night/Friday morning. Thus, the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains look to get increased winds early Friday morning with this approaching system. Cross sections also show the potential for mountain waves given a stable temperature layer above the surface in soundings near Ruidoso. While this does not appear favorable for crashing mountain waves, heightened wind speeds are favored across the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains near Dunken and Hondo. Gusts between 50- 55mph appear most favorable at the moment. Further north, the northern trough axis continues to move to the east through CO. The placement of each downstream speed max from each axis places northeast NM and southeast CO in an area both in a left exit and right entrance region of upper level jets. As such, a surface low is expected to develop in this area and contribute to windy conditions across much of eastern NM. Alongside this, a strong Pacific front begins to push through western NM as the trough axis traverses the CO/NM border. The combination of the surface low, Pacific front, and stronger 700mb winds (~35-40kts) should yield a windier day across much of the state. Gusts up to 50mph look likely across eastern NM, specifically along the I-40 corridor and on the immediate east slopes of the central mountain chain. There has been a decrease in the forecast wind speeds for Friday on account of a significant decrease in model guidance speeds and where exactly the surface low develops. Should the low develop further north or east, forecast winds in eastern NM would likely continue to decrease. A further south/west and/or stronger low may lead to higher wind speed forecasts. The aforementioned Pacific front and a backdoor front from the surface low look to push through much of NM Friday night into Saturday morning, plummeting temperatures across the area. There is high confidence in widespread temperatures below freezing, with continued high confidence in a hard freeze (<28F). While we are starting to near the average last freeze for some areas, the record warm March along with very recent rainfall has allowed for abundant blooming of plants and folks starting irrigation processes. A Freeze Watch will more likely than not be needed within the next day or two. Start preparing to protect your plants, pipes, pets and people! Weak ridging looks to build over the state through the weekend, bringing in calmer conditions mainly on Saturday. The orientation of the ridge looks to induce weak southerly flow on Sunday, producing a favorable pattern for a weak influx of moisture. A few gusty virga showers and light rain look possible for Sunday, though with only low to moderate confidence. Forecast confidence continues to decrease moving into next week as a potent low spins off the coast of CA. When and where it moves ashore will spell what impacts it will bring to NM, though a windy pattern with bouts of precipitation appear possible (low confidence). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails as light and variable winds tonight yield to increasing southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon gusting 25 to 35 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday afternoon across eastern NM, where a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch have been issued respectively. Southwest winds begin to increase through the early afternoon Thursday, mainly around 20-30mph and gusting to 40mph. Winds outside of the RFW likely will remain 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph. Single-digit humidity hours is one of the main stories for Thursday, with upwards of 9 hours across much of the RFW area. For Friday, winds are forecast to be stronger and have a more westerly component with gusts up to 50mph, and the humidity values are forecast to be slightly higher (8-12% rather than 5-9%) with a few hours less of single-digit humidity. Even with that, still expecting widespread critical fire weather conditions across the FWW area. Confidence has decreased slightly in the strength of the winds with the newest model guidance along with when a backdoor front will shift the winds out of the north across eastern NM. For both Thursday and Friday, ERCs remain around the 50-75th percentile after last weekend's rainfall, which is the limiting factor for not including anywhere west of the central mountain chain in fire highlights. Winds and RH will still be near critical threshold, but confidence is not high enough for including those locations. Saturday looks to be much calmer, albeit a much colder morning given the passage of the backdoor front. A few gusty virga showers and sprinkles are possible in western NM Sunday, though with low to moderate confidence. A Pacific storm system looks to approach sometime during the middle of next week, bringing winds and precipitation, though there is low confidence in any details at the moment. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 72 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 67 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 70 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 68 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 70 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 69 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 70 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 33 74 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 61 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 39 68 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 54 32 49 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 68 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 71 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 80 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 79 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 79 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 78 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 73 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 41 80 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 34 71 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 72 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 69 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 71 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 71 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 72 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 65 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 72 38 65 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 28 75 33 68 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 30 78 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 36 76 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 84 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 80 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 85 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 43 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 38 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 43 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 38 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...24  147 FXUS65 KFGZ 160520 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1020 PM MST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Pleasant weather through the rest of today. Another round of windy conditions is expected Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance for isolated showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Light winds with near-normal temperatures are in store through the rest of today as the gradient aloft relaxes and heights recover following the passage of a shortwave trough yesterday. A much drier airmass is also in place, putting an end to precipitation chances for the near-term. Thursday through Friday...A quick shortwave will brush past northern Arizona. The the trajectory of the disturbance will keep any precipitation well to our north, and the main impact will be strong winds. Recent model guidance has maintained a slightly more northward trajectory, and thus have maintained slightly lower magnitude of peak gusts. The current forecast calls for gusts to 30- 40 mph on Thursday as the trough approaches. Friday afternoon will see cooler daytime temperatures along with west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph across much of the area, however gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible in far eastern AZ. Saturday and beyond...A dry northeast flow will develop into Saturday. Temperatures will be chilly on Saturday morning, falling into the teens to mid 20s for high elevation sites that are protected from wind. Another shortwave trough will approach AZ on Sunday, bringing breezy southerly winds, higher dewpoints, and even a chances for isolated showers. A deeper Pacific trough looks to come onshore sometime early-middle next week, but there is plenty of spread in the track and timing, and confidence is low in the impacts. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...VFR conditions with light and variable winds, becoming SW 10-20 kts increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/06Z through Sunday 19/06Z...VFR conditions. N-NW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday, shifting to N-NE Friday night, then becoming NE-E 5-15 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday, becoming north/northwest 10-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH 10-20% each day. Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds north/northeast 5-15 mph on Saturday, shifting south/southeast on Sunday, then southerly on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  710 FXUS66 KHNX 160520 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1020 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures. 2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. && .DISCUSSION... Latest ensemble upper-air analysis indicates that the trajectory of the next disturbance will move across the area as an inside-slider. Therefore, while precipitation probabilities will be minimal and not become a factor during the latter part of the week, of major concern will be the introduction of significant cooling and strong winds. Afterward, ridging will move through the area ahead of a more significant disturbance around the start of next week. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley remains below 30 percent until Saturday as cooling is introduced to the area. By Saturday, PoE of 85 degrees will hit 30-50 percent south of Fresno County and 10-20 percent around Merced County. Therefore, while Merced will approach 80 degrees, Bakersfield will reach well into the 80s and approach 85 degrees. The warming trend will continue into Sunday ahead of the next disturbance with highs well into the 80s and nearing 90 degrees. Afterward, significant cooling will lower PoE of 80 degrees below 30 percent by the start of the work week and continue toward the middle of the week. Onset of precipitation is being moved more into Monday and reaching Central California by early in the day. Probability of Measurable Precipitation of accumulating a tenth of a inch (0.10”) will reach 20-30 percent between mid-day and late afternoon on Monday and increase to 30-40 percent by Monday Night. Based on the uncertainty of the ensemble upper-air analysis, will expect the precipitation probabilities to linger over Central California until early Wednesday. Due to the nature of a closed low circulation, the end of the forecast period will remain unsettled with possible precipitation extending through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337-339. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford  774 FXUS62 KMFL 160521 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 121 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Guidance keeps the ridge/deep high pressure holding its ground across the SE CONUS and the FL peninsula despite a rather complex weather scenario developing over the rest of the CONUS. The ridge axis will slowly drift southward and closer to SoFlo through tomorrow as some of the aforementioned storm systems push eastward. This will keep the area under a warm and dry weather regime through the rest of the week. 00Z MFL sounding and model sounding data keep PWATs below 1 inch for the next several days, and a significantly dry air mass between 1- 9km. Radar data shows less marine shower activity today, with very low chances of shallow marine showers making it into the east coast metro areas through the rest of the afternoon hours. Any shower should remain light and very brief. As the ridge axis moves closer to the area, expect pressure gradients to relax a little. This will result in shorter periods of breezy easterly winds, but still expecting some gusty periods around the Atlantic coastline this afternoon. The prevailing easterly winds may push smoke from the Newman wildfire towards the Gulf shore and other surrounding areas. Local air quality issues are likely to continue as firefighters work on mitigating the fire. Other smoke- associated hazards may include lower visibilities on roadways and make driving conditions less safe in certain areas. Max temps Thursday afternoon should reach the low-mid 80s for much of SoFlo, with possible upper 80s over the west coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Long term ensembles show a shortwave trough advecting across the central U.S. on Friday with the shortwave attempting to break down the deep-layer ridge over the Southeast U.S. However, with the ridge being highly amplified, it will not break down entirely and rather just be weakened or 'flattened out' in a sense. As the shortwave trough then advects offshore, upper level ridging re- amplifies in conjunction with a deep-layer trough forming over the Great Lakes region this weekend. This trough is expected to be strong enough to the point where it forces some downstream vorticity and a frontal boundary southwards towards northern Florida and simultaneously weakens the ridging pattern. Moisture would also be expected to increase as the front moves southwards. However, ensembles still keep 500mb heights around the 90-95th percentile through Sunday morning, hinting that the high pressure has a good chance to hold onto its control of the local weather through the first half of the weekend despite incoming low pressure trying to advect into the area. If this trend holds firm, mostly dry weather would be expected to continue minus some isolated shower activity occurring as a result of increased daytime high temperatures under the ridge pattern and a slight increase in moisture availability as some modest moisture advection occurs from a low in the Caribbean. As the frontal boundary washes out after it enters northern Florida and the ridge finally loses its strength, PWATs may rise back to climatological norms over the weekend and into next week (1.2-1.4") which can support some weak shower activity even under a high pressure pattern, particularly as a result of sea breeze circulations. Overall, most ensemble members and clusters at this time still favor drier solutions for this weekend and into Monday next week, and even these few wetter solutions for the Sat-Mon time frame do not favor a highly active period with total QPF for each 24-hour period being below 0.5". As a result, the latest forecast keeps conditions predominantly dry with only slight chances for some shower activity returning at the beginning of next week on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, ensembles do highlight a much more active pattern being possible as we approach the middle of next week, but uncertainty remains high on that given its at the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will continue to rise each day through this weekend underneath this large ridging pattern as we see highs rise to the mid to upper 80s along the east coast metro, upper 80s to low 90s for the Gulf coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows are expected to range each night from the low 60s for the Gulf coast, interior, and lake regions to the upper 60s and low 70s for the east coast metro. As the frontal boundary then works southwards and washes out through the area early next week, a cool down back to more normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Easterly winds will persist, ranging from 5-10 kts early this morning, and increasing up to 10-15 kts late morning into the afternoon. At KAPF, a Gulf breeze will develop, with westerly winds moving ashore. Winds should become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A moderate breeze will be in place across the Atlantic waters through the end of this week with a gentle breeze in the Gulf waters. Seas of 4-6 feet expected in the local Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Seas fall a bit further in the Atlantic today to 2-4 feet and should remain in this range for the rest of the week while Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Thursday this week. While this risk may decrease a bit for Friday and this weekend, an elevated risk may still persist into the weekend as onshore flow continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 67 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 70 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 82 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 71 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 72 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 81 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 81 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 85 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...ATV  842 FXUS64 KTSA 160520 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms gradually wind down into Thursday morning. - Warm, humid, and breezy southerly flow continues through Friday. - Additional thunderstorm chances, some potentially severe, are expected Friday into early Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The severe weather that impacted the area this evening should wind down the next few hours. With that said, a few more isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms could continue to develop across portions of northeast OK into northwest Arkansas until daybreak before it totally wraps up, riding along a convergent boundary. Low clouds are expected to redevelop around daybreak, lasting into late morning before clearing. Highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Several CAMs show some isolated storms popping up in the late afternoon or evening, though they disagree on timing, location, and intensity. Without proper forcing this is probably a less favored outcome, but wanted at least a mention of storms as it is possible. If a storm did get going it could become marginally severe. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds will persist through the period with some gustiness in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Warm, humid, and breezy conditions will remain in place Friday as the next storm system approaches the region. The large scale set up is that a fairly deep trough will be moving from the western USA towards the Plains. Meanwhile, a semi cut off low beneath the trough will be moving in tandem towards the area. The southerly cut off low will induce a subtropical jet along with plenty of warm and moist advection. It will begin to merge more completely with the northerly trough, with a very potent upper level jet forming. This jet will be just northeast of the area by Friday evening with strong divergence aloft in addition to the unusually elevated wind speeds. Meanwhile, a cold front will be barreling into the area at the surface. Ahead of the front, the low level jet will invigorate with its own anomalously strong winds. The result will be a hodograph that is both strongly curved in the lower levels and then very elongated in the upper levels. This will occur with PWAT near 1.5" and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg. It is sufficient to say that the ingredients will be in place for severe weather to develop Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Early CAM guidance shows two windows to watch. A few supercells may develop along the dry line ahead of the cold front. These would have the higher potential to be more significantly severe with all severe hazard types. Then, a more consolidated line will form along the cold front. This is when severe wind would be more likely along with more widespread heavy rain. SPC and AI model guidance all pretty much agree on the elevated severe weather potential. Hopefully as more CAMs come into range in the next day some additional details can be pinned down. Behind the cold front it looks much cooler and drier for later Saturday into early next week. Highs will fall into the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. The next chance of storms may be next Tuesday or so, but this is low confidence at this time. Highs could return to the 80s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current band of storms across NE OK is weakening, but there's a chance they impact far NW AR later, so thunder mention was added at KTUL/KRVS and prob30s were added at KXNA/KROG/KFYV. Otherwise, expect low cloud cigs, probably low-end MVFR, to overspread NE OK and NW AR sites by 12Z. There may also be a brief period of MVFR cigs at KMLC. Cigs should scatter out by midday, with VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the forecast. Thursday afternoon storm chances aren't zero, but are too low to mention in the TAFs. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 68 81 49 / 20 20 30 90 FSM 83 66 86 55 / 20 20 20 80 MLC 84 68 82 51 / 10 10 10 80 BVO 83 65 82 45 / 0 20 50 90 FYV 80 65 83 48 / 20 20 20 80 BYV 80 65 82 48 / 30 20 20 80 MKO 82 66 82 48 / 20 20 20 80 MIO 80 66 81 45 / 10 20 40 90 F10 84 67 82 48 / 20 20 20 80 HHW 82 65 82 53 / 10 10 10 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30  169 FXUS64 KOHX 160521 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances Thursday and Thursday evening, and again this weekend. Severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds will fill in in the area overnight ahead of tomorrow's severe threat. There is a low to medium probability (20-40%) of seeing some showers in the morning, but these would be sub-severe. Later in the afternoon, as surface heating occurs and our temperatures approach the low 80s, lapse rates will steepen alongside a shortwave. This will present a severe threat that is marginal in nature (level 1 out of 5), but still something to watch. While the severe threat is low and looks to be isolated tomorrow afternoon and evening, the main hazards look to be gusty winds and some hail. Some guidance is putting out a complex of storms that will move west to east across the area, however, the models that were showing this have since backed off this outcome in recent outputs. We will have to see as things progress tomorrow, and what things look like to our west once the threat develops, so stay tuned to the latest forecast information. Once the severe threat moves on, Friday will be much warmer. Highs look to get into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, with an isolated rain threat in the afternoon. This looks to be more of a diurnal chance, reliant on the daytime heating of the surface. Regardless, the chances are low (<25%), with the highest likelihood of seeing some drops being in the northwest near the Land Between The Lakes. Unfortunately, neither of these rain chances in the short term look to help us out with our drought. QPF amounts tomorrow are less than half an inch across Middle Tennessee, with very little additional help on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our next rain chance comes on Saturday, with a strong cold front propagating into Middle Tennessee as a low pressure system pushes into Canada from the northern great plains. The severe threat with this FROPA is underwhelming, as the convective activity lags behind the actual front itself. A post-frontal environment is not conducive for severe weather, so I'd be surprised to see more than a couple of severe storms on Saturday, and that's a stretch. Unfortunately, QPF is disappointing with this as well, with amounts over the weekend barely cracking half an inch into Sunday. We'll need a lot more rain that that to bust this drought, but some rain will help water the plants. Surface high pressure sets in post-frontal, keeping things quiet for the beginning of the work week. That cold front will pack a punch, dropping our highs into the 60s on Sunday. Highs will warm into the low 80s mid-week, so don't get too used to the below normal temperatures! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Incredibly low confidence TAF forecast for this period. Models are in spasm regarding TS potential Thursday afternoon and evening. Will prevail VFR conditions throughout the cycle, but this may need to be adjusted based on eventual thunderstorm positioning. Winds have relaxed for the night, but will become gusty again by late Thursday morning. Southwest gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected, then relaxing again by 00Z/Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 61 88 68 / 70 40 20 10 Clarksville 80 61 88 68 / 80 40 20 20 Crossville 80 56 82 61 / 60 50 10 0 Columbia 82 58 87 66 / 60 40 20 0 Cookeville 79 58 82 64 / 70 50 10 10 Jamestown 80 56 82 62 / 60 60 10 10 Lawrenceburg 82 58 86 66 / 50 40 10 0 Murfreesboro 82 58 87 66 / 70 50 20 0 Waverly 80 61 88 68 / 70 40 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger  320 FXUS65 KTFX 160521 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1121 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for lower elevation rain/isolated thunder and mountain snow increases this afternoon and evening. - A cold front will transition rain to snow, bringing cold temperatures Thursday and a slight chance for snow squalls along I-90 tonight. - Isolated to scattered snow showers continue Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. - A warming trend and drier conditions trending for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: With the upper level trough translating east across the Western U.S., isolated lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers have developed. Precipitation will continue to develop, becoming scattered ahead of the front. Weak instability this afternoon poses an isolated risk for weak thunderstorms. Gusty winds across the Madison River and Beaverhead County valleys also increases ahead of the front as winds increases aloft. The cold front passage later today will bring widespread precipitation across the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front combined with weak instability brings a slight risk for snow squalls along and south of the I-90 corridor this evening. The main impacts will be sudden reductions in visibility and minor, slushy accumulations on roads. Snow levels dropping behind the front will help transition rain to snow widespread across the region late tonight and into Thursday morning. Chilly temperatures during the day Thursday will keep lingering snow showers throughout the day, mainly in Southwest MT with more isolated snow showers across North-Central MT. Increasing winds aloft wrapping around the cold upper-level low along the Hi-line Thursday will also bring breezy to gusty winds to North-Central MT. -Wilson On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper-level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday and bring milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the benign conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds in Southwest MT Through the Rest of the Day: Gusty winds continue this afternoon in the Madison and Beaverhead County Valleys. The threat for high winds remain marginal, with best chances being with a shower/thunderstorm or along the frontal passage. Therefore, no changes were made to the current High Wind Warning. Snow Through Thursday: Warmer pavement temperatures are currently limiting snow accumulations to above pass level. The cold front will help lower temperatures, with moderate to heavy snow along the front helping crash pavement temperatures to freezing. The main changes to the forecast was upgrading the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning and downgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for the Gallatin County Valley. One uncertainty lies in the amount of QPF this system produces, as probabilities have down trended recently in model runs. Though synoptic nudges like the strong cold advection and aloft and frontogenesis along the front gave enough confidence to upgrade the Madison and Gallatin County Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning. The main impacts will be along Highway 191 south of the Gallatin Gateway to West Yellowstone. Timing of the front being at night is ideal for moderate to heavy snow along the frontal passage to crash road temperatures in the Gallatin Valley quickly. However, there wasn't a high enough confidence in high moisture amounts to produce a broader 6-7" of snow for a Winter Storm Warning. There is a slight chance for those amounts still, especially areas near the higher terrain that could get some upslope enhancement. A tight snow gradient will likely develop in the valley/the city of Bozeman as a result. The Madison River Valley could see minor slushy snow accumulations Thursday, so they were added to the Winter Weather Advisories as well. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 16/12Z TAF Period A spring storm will bring low CIGS and reduced VIS to terminals across Southwest Montana for much of the next 24 hours, with terminals across Central and North Central Montana seeing fluctuations in CIGS/VIS over this same timeframe. With respect to Southwest Montana persistent snow or a rain/snow mix across the KWYS, KEKS, and KBZN terminals will bring LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions through 15-18z Thursday, with conditions only improving to MVFR/low-VFR thereafter. Further north an area of precipitation will gradually exit through the KGTF, KLWT, and KHVR terminals through 09-12z Thursday; however, snow showers will re-develop during the late morning/afternoon hours on Thursday and persist through the evening hours here and at the KCTB and KHLN terminals. Widespread mountain obscuration will continue through the day on Thursday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 28 39 22 45 / 80 30 40 50 CTB 19 30 14 44 / 40 50 20 20 HLN 27 43 25 46 / 90 40 40 70 BZN 25 39 19 43 / 90 80 50 70 WYS 25 34 12 36 / 100 90 70 70 DLN 25 38 19 43 / 80 70 20 30 HVR 26 37 17 46 / 80 70 30 0 LWT 27 38 17 42 / 90 50 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Thursday for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  306 FXUS63 KFSD 160522 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts will lead to a critical fire danger on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for south central and southeast South Dakota, far northeast Nebraska, parts of southwest Minnesota, and parts of northwest Iowa. Elevated fire danger will persist through Friday. - A strong cold front moves through the area on Friday. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of Highway-14 as precipitation exits the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet conditions persist across the area this evening. After looking at the latest guidance, confidence has increased in upgrading the current Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning on Thursday. Latest REFS shows wind gusts reaching 25 mph for the majority of the Watch area. The HREF is a bit weaker though both of them show winds reaching critical thresholds towards the 90th percentile of their available data. Think that this makes sense given the deep mixing that will be in place tomorrow. With deeper mixing in place per latest BUFKIT soundings, slightly stronger winds can be mixed to the surface, thus reaching critical fire danger levels. Any fire danger will come to an end during the evening hours as temperatures cool and humidity increases. Friday remains on track to be a mainly dry day as a cold front is expected to quickly push through the area. While any appreciable severe weather chances will remain off to the southeast of the area, there could still be a few showers that develop along the elevated portion of the front. Winds are expected to remain breezy in the post frontal airmass with northwest gusts up to 30-40 mph expected throughout the day. With cooler temperatures in place, humidity values will not be as low, though down to about 30-50%. The lower humidity and stronger winds will lead to elevated fire danger across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Winds have gone light and variable across the area but are expected to pick up out of the south through the rest of the overnight hours. Skies are expected to remain clear for the day tomorrow with winds further veering to out of the southwest. Winds will also strengthen tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to about 25 to 30 knots expected. Winds will remain breezy through the rest of the TAF period. There could be some low level wind shear to end the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Winds remain light across the area this afternoon, so fire weather concerns are not expected into this evening. South- southwesterly winds will increase on Thursday as a storm system deepens off to our west. Relative humidity values look to drop as low as 15-20% across the area in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s. This dry air will combine with gusts of 25-30 mph to lead to critical fire weather conditions across a large part of the area. For this reason, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for south central and southeastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska to a Red Flag Warning. A little uncertainty remains on how far east the strongest winds make it, but enough confidence to issue a Fire Weather Watch for parts of southwest Minnesota into adjacent areas of northwest Iowa where RH values will drop to around 20-25%. Farther south to the Highway 20 corridor in northwest Iowa, went with a Fire Weather Watch instead of a Red Flag Warning due to uncertainty regarding how much rain we see down there today. If we could get more of a steady rain develop and/or a couple of thunderstorms move through this afternoon, that may preclude a greater fire danger despite the low RH and breezy winds expected. Winds remain elevated and even increase on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and turns winds from the south to out of the northwest. Drier air will filter in behind this front, dropping RH values by Friday afternoon. This will lead to a primarily wind driven high to very high GFDI across the area; however colder temperatures moving in and cloud cover precludes a greater fire weather threat at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001-012-020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...Meyers DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers FIRE WEATHER...Samet  535 FXUS64 KSHV 160521 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon, mainly for areas north of I-20. - A strong cold front will move through the region on Saturday, bringing more widespread rain chances to the area. - Below normal temperatures will follow in the wake of the cold front from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Radar imagery early this morning continues to show areas of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-30, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. These storms have been sub-severe and should remain this way through the next few hours. Short range models indicate that this activity should be out of the area by around 06-08z. That being said, there NBM continues to maintain some low PoPs for our northern areas into this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions then settle in for Thursday night and most of Friday, before precipitation chances increase again as a strong cold front begins to approach the area from the northwest by Friday evening. This cold front will bring more widespread rainfall to the area starting early Saturday morning and exiting the area to the southeast by Saturday night. There are some pretty decent indications that this could be a good soaking rainfall for most locations. Drier conditions move in behind the cold front and will limit precipitation chances through at least Monday, after which , some low end PoPs return to the forecast but right now will remain low end. Temperatures today will range from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees across the region, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above seasonable normals. MIld temperatures remain for tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today in terms of high temperatures, however, Friday night is when things begin to "cool" down. We will see a wider variety of temperatures on Friday night as the cold front begins to enter the northwest portions of the area, where lows Saturday morning will be in the lower to upper 50s, while the remainder of the area will be in the lower to upper 60s. With the rain expected through the day Saturday, and the advancing cooler air, we will see a wide variety of high temperatures that afternoon as well, with ranges from the mid 60s across our northern zones to the mid 80s across our southeast zones. Saturday night will be chilly, or pleasant depending on how you like it, with lows ranging from around 40 degrees to the north and 50 degrees to the south. We could even see some upper 30s across our far northern zones. Sunday will be nice, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, followed by another chilly night Sunday night into Monday and then another pleasant day on Monday. From here we will see temperatures slowly start to rise again, returning to the lower to mid 80s by the middle of the week. /33/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 For the 16/00Z TAFs, scattered showers are pushing into northwestern ArkLaTex airspace at this hour. A few showers in the vicinity will be possible at KTYR this evening, with impacts not reaching KTXK until late. A mix of lower VFR and high cloud decks will persist through the night until CIGs drop to MVFR levels after 16/10Z. South winds will continue throughout, becoming southwesterly tomorrow, at maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 20 kts possible tomorrow afternoon. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 66 88 68 / 10 0 0 10 MLU 89 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 82 62 85 56 / 20 10 10 40 TXK 85 67 89 65 / 30 10 0 20 ELD 85 63 88 64 / 30 0 0 10 TYR 85 66 86 64 / 10 0 0 20 GGG 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...26  736 FXUS66 KPDT 160522 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1022 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .EVENING UPDATE. Abundant radiation cooling is expected overnight into Friday morning with clear skies and calmer winds. Confidence is high enough (70-80%) that freezing temperatures as low as 24 degrees (especially in higher elevated and sheltered areas) will occur across the Kittitas Valley through the Columbia Basin. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows a closed upper low centered over southwest British Columbia early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a robust cold front is trekking across eastern Oregon and far southeast Washington. In the wake of the front, skies have become clear to partly cloudy across much of the Columbia Basin and vicinity, with upslope convective showers noted across the Cascade crest. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in an additional 2-6 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades and northern Blue Mountains, and 4-8 inches for the Oregon Cascades. While the bulk of the steady snowfall has ended for the Cascades -- and will end through this afternoon for the Blues as the front sags southeast -- snow showers will persist through tonight into Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves over northeast Washington. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds have developed in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. While winds of 20-30 mph coupled with gusts of 30-40 mph have developed in climatologically wind-prone locations, confidence in the need for any wind headlines is low-medium (30-60 percent), highest for the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Winds will be locally stronger along exposed ridges within the Columbia Plateau region. The cold air mass associated with the low has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities still suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for tonight into Thursday morning where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon). Will note there is still uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours, so confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is shaky (50-60 percent), but think areas of freezing temperatures still have a high enough chance of developing to retain the warnings. An upper-level ridge will likely (90 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. Have not issued any Freeze Watches to avoid confusion given the existing Freeze Warnings for Thursday morning. Uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows through the weekend, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest Saturday through the remainder of the period. Precipitation chances increase Sunday, but especially Monday and Tuesday, in what is looking increasingly like a potential convective set-up for portions of the forecast area. Another deformation band similar to what was observed earlier in the week is also looking like a potential outcome should the closed low track inland along a supportive path, but confidence in that solution is currently low (20-25 percent). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the period, with breezy to locally windy conditions being the main weather concern this period. TAF sites across PDT, YKM, and ALW are reporting 20-30 mph gusts that will at least continue through the overnight hours. Winds overall will decrease by tomorrow night but PDT and DLS is forecasted to remain breezy through the next 24-hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 31 54 30 58 / 30 20 0 0 ALW 34 54 35 58 / 60 30 0 0 PSC 34 61 33 63 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 30 59 30 62 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 33 59 33 62 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 29 50 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 23 49 20 58 / 50 10 0 0 LGD 28 46 27 54 / 70 50 10 0 GCD 26 45 23 55 / 70 40 0 0 DLS 34 56 34 64 / 40 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for WAZ026>028. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Freeze Warning from 11 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ044-507. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  952 FXUS64 KAMA 160525 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon. -Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern and western combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue throughout the day on Thursday. Mid level height gradient will become more steep throughout the day, which favors breezy conditions. Blend of latest 75th percentile data support synoptic pattern setting up on Thursday. With downslope winds out of the southwest winds of 20-30 mph advecting very dry airmass, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return throughout the day. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles to lower 90s in the southeast Texas Panhandle. For Friday, we will watch closely where surface boundaries set up by the afternoon hours. In terms of highest impacts for the far eastern Panhandles, if the main dryline can hold back across the eastern Texas Panhandle with the cold front moving more slowly into the northern Panhandles by Friday afternoon, there could be a narrow window for a strong to severe thunderstorm to develop with all hazards in play. Majority of model consensus has both the main cold front moving quickly south through the Panhandles and the dryline should move quickly east into western Oklahoma by around sunset on Friday. This bring overall rain chances for the far eastern Panhandles only topping out around 20 percent. Meanwhile for the remainder of the Panhandles, breezy and dry conditions continue with critical fire weather conditions expected. Current forecast for high temperatures on Friday will range from the mid 70s in the NW to lower 90s in the SE TX Panhandle. If cold front moves faster, these max temperatures will be adjusted to lower values. By Friday night, in the wake of the cold front, latest hi-res model and numerical guidance shows pronounced H850 CAA into the region. A Freeze Watch is in effect for most of the western and northern combined Panhandles where low temperatures will range from the upper 20s in the NW Panhandles to lower 40s in the SE TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Residual cooler temperatures continue throughout the coming weekend. High temperatures will generally remain near to below average, with the potential for Saturday night to feature locations that could flirt with overnight lows at or just below freezing. Temperatures will rebound next work week to above average once again for mid April with dry conditions expected to continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts, increasing to 15-25 kts past 12Z with higher gusts at times. Skies will remain mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. Min RH values both days will drop by the afternoon hours to as low as 6-8 percent. Southwest winds both days will be sustained at 20-30 mph with higher gusts expected throughout the day. Watching wind shift with cold front on Friday with winds shifting to northerly behind the front, taking place sometime between mid Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Max RFTI values of 6-7 are expected both Thursday and Friday. ERC percentile values ranging from the 80th to just over 90th is also expected through Friday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ001>019- 317. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ001>020-317. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ001>003. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ001>003. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  857 FXUS63 KDLH 160526 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior through Friday. Foggy and in the 30s and 40s closest to Lake Superior. - Dry and gusty conditions are forecast Thursday afternoon leading to near-critical fire weather conditions for areas in Minnesota. - Rain and thunderstorms forecast on Friday with isolated severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. - Colder late Friday and into Saturday, with rain changing to snow possible. Any snow accumulation would be light. The chance for travel impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Tonight through Thursday night... Fog is expected to develop once again near Lake Superior and become dense with visibility less than 1/4 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Thursday for zones near Lake Superior. Patchy dense fog is possible farther inland and an expansion of the advisory may eventually be needed if conditions warrant. Inland from Lake Superior will see dry and gusty conditions Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s. Around the shore of Lake Superior temperatures will top out in the 40s and 50s. Clouds may linger over along the Canadian border near International Falls and northwest St. Louis County which would keep temps a bit cooler in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to near 30 mph forecast. Efficient mixing will cause RH values to drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland. Near- critical fire weather conditions are forecast for most of our Minnesota area. If fog and low stratus persists longer than expected, the onset of the dry and gusty conditions will be delayed and RH values may not fall as low as currently expected. Fog and stratus to return again Thursday night. Isentropic ascent ahead of a developing low pressure system over the northern Plains will aid in cloud development over central and north-central Minnesota. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed once again. A chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snow, will nose into northern Minnesota ahead of the system. Friday through Saturday night... Low pressure system will progress eastward along with a cool front Friday. Precipitation is forecast to persist or redevelop over Minnesota Friday morning as the system moves east. Over northwest Wisconsin strong Theta-E advection is forecast in the warm sector. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor and over northwest Wisconsin. Favorable low-level hodographs provide support a tornado threat with any storms which can become rooted near the surface. There will also be a risk of large hail with any supercells which develop. The risk is somewhat conditional since the best forcing for ascent may lag behind the greatest instability. Farther west over central and north-central Minnesota, behind the cold front, precipitation will persist through the day as a mix of rain and snow. Little to no snow accumulation is expected during the day due to the high sun angle and light precipitation rates. High temperatures Friday will be a sharp contrast with upper 30s near Birchdale in northwest Koochiching County to the low and middle 70s over northwest Wisconsin. The system will progress farther east Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation will move out of the region Saturday morning. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow Friday night and early Saturday morning. Minor accumulations of around and inch or less are possible an no travel impacts are anticipated. Saturday will be cool with highs only in the low 30s along the Canadian border to around 40 degrees from central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin. Scattered rain and snow showers may redevelop in response to diurnal heating Saturday afternoon and taper off Saturday evening. Sunday through next Wednesday... Temperatures begin to warm up again on Sunday with much warmer, drier, and gustier conditions Monday. A cold front is forecast to pass over the region Monday night and Tuesday The front is expected to pass by without much precipitation. The timing of the front will play a role in high temps on Tuesday. If the front passes by Monday night and early Tuesday morning, temps will recover into the middle 50s to middle 60s Tuesday afternoon. If the front is slower, temps will be cooler Tuesday. Relatively quiet conditions persist into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas of fog are possible through this morning at all terminals except BRD. Most fog should reduce visibility to MVFR and high IFR levels, however 1/4SM fog is possible at DLH. Fog should burn off through this morning with a return to widespread VFR conditions. South to southeast winds pick up through the day today with gusts of 15-20 knots possible. Some LLWS could start to build into the area by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light northeast winds will persist tonight and strengthen Thursday. Wind and waves may become hazardous to small craft near the Twin Ports. A cold front and area of low pressure will move over the region Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will back northwesterly behind the front and strengthen. Wind and waves will be hazardous to small craft by Friday evening. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over western Lake Superior during the afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong. Strong wind gusts are possible within a mile or two of shore. Farther away from shore strong wind gusts are unlikely due to the cold water temperatures keeping the lower atmosphere stable. Gusty winds and high waves will persist Saturday and conditions will improve Sunday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fog is expected around Lake Superior tonight with otherwise clear skies. RH recovery will be good overnight with maximum RH values above 85%. A low pressure system will move into the northern Plains Thursday. Gusty southerly winds are forecast during the afternoon into the evening. Efficient mixing is forecast once the fog and low stratus burn off. Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 25 to 35 percent range for areas away from the influence of Lake Superior. Wind gusts of 20 to 28 mph are forecast over central and north-central Minnesota while weaker wind gusts are forecast over the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Near-critial fire weather conditions are anticipated. Warm and gusty conditions are forecast for Friday along the I-35 corridor in Minnesota east across northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over those areas during the afternoon and evening while a rain/snow mix is favored over central and north-central Minnesota. Precipitation will persist and advance eastward Friday night and Saturday morning as a rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts will vary from around a tenth of an inch over central and north- central Minnesota to an inch or more where thunderstorms occur in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Colder temperatures are forecast Saturday before the next warming trend begins Sunday. Dry and gusty conditions may return by Monday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021- 037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...Huyck  594 FXUS64 KBMX 160529 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026 - Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days due to dryness, low daytime humidity, and increased winds at times. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Near-record high temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air early next week. - Drought conditions are expected to worsen across Central Alabama despite the potential for light rain amounts Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026 The upper-level pattern will slowly begin to break down over the next 36-hours, as a deep trough and cold front begin to move east out of the central Plains. Rain chances will finally return to the forecast by late Saturday evening, as this cold front begins to work into the region. While any rain at this point is welcomed, it will hardly be the rainfall the region needs to make any sort of meaningful impact on the ongoing drought. Most locations will generally see between a quarter and a half-inch of rainfall when its all said and done Sunday afternoon. Temperatures behind the cold front will drop some 15-20 degrees, with afternoon highs on Sunday ranging in the upper-60s to low-70s. With that being said, temperatures will quickly rebound as a subtle ridge works back into the region. While this climb will be slow, afternoon highs should be back in the low-80s by Wednesday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026 Confidence is high that we will see VFR conditions for the entire TAF period, with high pressure in place. Winds will be light overnight and between 7 to 10 knots during the day. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather conditions will remain elevated into the weekend, with fuels remaining critically dry. While confidence is fairly high that we will see rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, it still won't be the drought busting rain that we desperately need. Winds will be strong over the weekend as well, as a cold front moves through the region, before slightly dropping into Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, it looks like MinRH will dramatically drop behind this front, with low MinRH values expected for most of next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KBHM: 89/1977 KEET: 84/2013 KTCL: 90/1955 KMGM: 90/1925 April 17: KBHM: 90/1955 KEET: 86/2013 KTCL: 92/1955 KMGM: 90/1955 April 18: KBHM: 91/2006 KEET: 90/2006 KANB: 90/1955 KMGM: 91/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 57 88 59 / 10 10 10 0 Anniston 84 60 88 61 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 85 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 85 61 89 62 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 84 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...16  930 FXUS63 KMQT 160529 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. - The threat for flooding continues through the week due to snowmelt and potential showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through Thursday night. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday evening into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected, with up to 30% probability of exceeding an inch, best chances over the south half. - Becoming much cooler this weekend, which will slow snowmelt. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Anomalous midlevel ridging exists over the eastern third of the CONUS, while a deep, compact trough is over the Pacific Northwest. Between these features, a compact shortwave trough is shifting northeastward across the central Plains. At lower levels, a diffuse boundary runs from low pressure near Omaha to another low in northern Lower Michigan. An area of convection is developing along this boundary in the central Plains, which should move northeastward into this evening. Most of this activity will remain south of the area, although a few showers in the stratiform portion of the convective complex could brush the southeast half overnight, with no impactful precipitation amounts expected. Weak high pressure over Lake Superior is resulting in onshore flow, keeping northern areas cool. Meanwhile, some of the low clouds have cleared out over the interior west, which has allowed temps to spike to 55-60F. Tonight, guidance suggests fog redevelops, with highest confidence in areas where dewpoint depressions remain low this afternoon. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 10 pm EDT this evening through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. Thursday, there is better confidence in earlier low clouds clearing in roughly the western half, with shortwave ridging building in. As the airmass remains anomalously warm (850 mb temps around 10C or +1 to +2 sigma), unseasonable warmth will occur where clouds clear and deeper mixing happens, with a high chance of temps in the 70s and a low chance of approaching 80 in some spots. Meanwhile in the east, clouds hanging on longer and potential for onshore flow will keep things significantly cooler, with areas along the lakeshore likely remaining below 50F. Friday, ridging builds ahead of the Pac NW trough shifting across the northern Plains. A strong capping inversion should keep things dry until the front arrives and crosses the UP from west to east roughly 00-06Z Sat. Another very warm day is expected in the west half, while it will be a bit cooler with flow off Lake Michigan in the east half. GFS/NAM indicate elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg with strong deep layer shear, so a few stronger storms resulting in hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Anomalous moisture with PWATs of 1-1.25 inches will be in place, but the quick movement of the trough is expected to limit QPF to 0.25-0.75" in most areas. However, potential for a wave to develop along the front would prolong rainfall a bit, which could result in higher precip amounts (20-30% chance of exceeding an inch in southern locations). A sharply colder airmass will move in for the weekend with temperatures back below normal. Some light snow is possible Saturday morning but is not expected to be impactful. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Warm and moist southerly flow accompanied by the snowmelt is supplying ample low level moisture. Low stratus and fog noted by regional satellite is only lowering viz at CMX as of 06z, but could plague IWD/SAW (moreso SAW) through the early morning. As has been seen the last few nights, any fog/stratus will lift to MVFR/VFR through the late morning to early afternoon. Light winds <15 kts are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Areas of dense fog continue through at least tonight into Thursday morning. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, with a 30-50% chance for brief gales over the eastern lake Friday evening. With stable southerly flow, the highest winds will be observed on high observing platforms. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday into Sunday). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through late Friday into Friday night with 0.25-0.75 inches expected for most areas, and a 20-30% of exceeding an inch in the southern UP. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Waters remain high in the southern UP where recent heavy rains and snowmelt contributed to flooding of low-lying areas and some rivers. Rivers will continue to rise in portions of the northern UP due to continued snowmelt and additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night for all but the far western UP, and may be extended through Friday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ001-003>007-010>014- 084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC/Thompson HYDROLOGY...  953 FXUS62 KCHS 160529 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections and Key Messages were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown next week. Deep, subtropical ridging will maintain its influence on the region through Saturday. The ridge will begin to erode Friday and especially into the weekend as series of shortwaves ejecting out of the Central and Northern Plains propagate atop the ridge. Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will move little through Saturday keeping much of the Southeast U.S. positioned along its western flank. Unfortunately, setup will keep dry and warm conditions in place with little prospects of any drought relief. A cold front is poised to push south through the area Sunday as a much stronger shortwave digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Moisture return head of the front looks meager at best and with model cross sections showing the main corridor of strongest DPVA passing by well to the north, the prospects for measurable rainfall looks pretty dim across the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. The 16/01z NBM does highlight 20% pops for the Lowcountry Sunday afternoon/evening, but given the lack of forcing and moisture, these are likely overdone and were lowered to less than 20%. Temperatures through Saturday will remain well above normal for mid-April with record highs likely being challenged both Friday and Saturday afternoons as the flow aloft becomes more west-northwest and 850 hPa temperatures peak in the 16-18C range. The 16/01z NBM deterministic highs are at the very low-end, if not outside of the interquartile range (IQR) for most locations, so some warmer guidance was blended into nudge highs up slightly. See the climate section below record information. A brief cooldown will occur early next week as a wedge of high pressure builds in from the north and gradually shifts offshore into the Atlantic. Breezy conditions are are likely at the beaches Sunday night into Monday morning where gusty north to northeast winds will occur in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 16/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/06z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Elevated wind gusts are possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions will persist into Saturday with the region remaining along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Sea breeze enhancements along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor are likely each afternoon/evening with the intensify of the sea breeze surge likely to wane Friday and Saturday afternoons given a west/northwest flow aloft. A strong cold front is poised to push through the waters Sunday afternoon with winds quickly ramping up Sunday night into Monday morning in response to post-frontal cold air advection and a rapid tightening of the pressure gradient. North to northeast winds of 20-30 kt are likely with gusts approaching gale force, especially over the 20-60 NM offshore zones. Seas look to peak Monday, ranging from 4-6 ft nearshore waters to 7-10 ft over the offshore waters (highest offshore Georgia waters). Small Craft Advisories are likely and a Gale Watch/Warning could be needed over the offshore zones. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday due to the combination of 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds, modest onshore flow, and increasing astronomical influences associated with lunar perigee/new moon. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist this weekend and especially early next week as a pinched gradient associated with a passing cold front supports a gusty northeast wind event along the Southeast Coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  267 FXUS61 KCTP 160529 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Tweaked timing on convection this evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. 2) Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. Morning convection helped to raise dewpoints slightly, but they have started to lower with deeper mixing in between shots of forcing. Gusty SWrly wind is topped by Wrly flow in mid levels. The forecast soundings/profiles do support CAPE rising to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening over the NW. Forcing from a short wave trough will arrive late in the day, and help flare some deep convection. Shear is close to 45KTs at BFD around 6 PM. Most num guid develops storms over nrn OH and slides it into Warren Co around 5 PM. Mid level flow of 60+ KTs, too. Fast moving storms with multi-cellular or even super- cellular mode are expected. Coverage is expected to increase through 8 or 9 PM before struggling to hold together and push too far S of I-80. An isolated storm or two could pop S of there, but we'll have lots of CINH to erase for that to happen. The storms should start to wane as we lose heating and the trough passes to the east late this evening/early tonight. The threat for severe wx should be done by 10 or 11 PM. A weak boundary will likely lay out W-E right thru the middle of the CWA as they die off. The wet areas will probably develop some fog overnight. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. South of the boundary mentioned above will be dry as the drought conditions beget more drought for the southern third of the CWA. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, the heat of Wed will be replicated. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels are not dry enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a mention more than here in the discussion. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. The main, wavy front will be laying out to our north for the next day and a half. Deep mixing here in the warm sector has already pushed temps well above normal, with 3 PM temps already near records in many spots and even higher than normal high temperatures in July. Expect this to repeat Thursday (tomorrow). The possibility of clouds and some morning fog across the nrn tier could hold them just a deg or two below what we see right now. The earlier boundary Additional showers/storms are expected Thurs in just about the same timing and location as this evening. The mid-level winds will not be as strong, though. So, the threat for severe weather is not as great nor as widespread as this evening - staying confined to the far NW. SPC MRGL is appropriate. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. Low pressure rolls to the east along the main front to our N Thursday night. Fri looks mainly dry and 5-10F cooler, but Saturday holds the next chc for SHRA/TSRA. The bigger change will come later in the weekend as a significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air. In fact, Monday night could hold a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down AOB 32F. Monday will be 10-12F colder than Sunday as the big high pressure area floats in from central Canada. Day 6-7 look warmer again as we get into a SW flow due to the high sliding rather quickly east. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers will remain possible over northwest PA through the rest of the night, though all TAF sites likely remain dry. Patchy fog is beginning to form as breaks in the clouds develop, but confidence on visibility restrictions at airfields is low. Most guidance would indicate that all sites remain VFR, but periods of IFR visibility cannot be ruled out, particularly at BFD, IPT. VFR conditions are expected during the day on Thursday with varying amounts of mid and high clouds and west-southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Gusts to 25 knots will be possible. Similar to the past few days, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening over western PA. BFD, JST, UNV, and IPT will once again be most likely to see any thunderstorms. There is a stronger signal in the model guidance for low clouds to develop Thursday night over northwest PA than there has been the past few nights. Ceilings may drop to MVFR or IFR at BFD after 03Z, with lower confidence in any ceiling restrictions for other sites. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  189 FXUS66 KMFR 160530 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1030 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...The Frost Advisory is on track for tomorrow morning in the Rogue, Illinois and Klamath River Valleys. Temperatures are already reaching the mid-30s in these areas. An update for tonight is that there is an increasing confidence that Friday morning will have freezing temperatures in some west side valleys and in portions of the Klamath River Valley. Friday's Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Warning and the Rogue Valley has been added to this. -Hermansen && .AVIATION...16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, though widepsread terrain obscurations are occurring. A front is currently passing through the region bringing periods of MVFR conditions in cig/vsbys along with widespread gusty winds. Showers will continue overnight, focused along and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and this should limit any fog development overnight. However, if there is enough clearing, areas of LIFR conditions could develop in West Side Valleys. The more likely scenario is a low end VFR/MVFR stratus deck lingers over the West Side into Thursday morning. Expect conditions to lift to VFR by Thursday afternoon with a round of gusty north to northwest winds developing area wide. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A passing front has brought breezy winds and steep seas across all waters through tomorrow afternoon. Isolated showers are possible tonight through tomorrow morning. Conditions improve late tomorrow afternoon; however, a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late tomorrow into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1253 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ DISCUSSION...The front is passing through the area this afternoon, with rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. Steady rain will taper off as the front passes to the south and east later today, with showers continuing overnight, and potentially some isolated showers persisting into Thursday morning along the coast and the northern Cascades. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there's some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for CAZ080. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  213 FXUS65 KGJT 160530 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1130 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in various valleys this morning and tonight before a widespread hard freeze sets in Friday night. - After a brief warm up, colder unsettled weather returns to the region tonight through Saturday morning. - Warm weather builds back in this weekend into early next week with a return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Satellite imagery shows the next low pressure system currently descending through the Pacific Northwest with strong low-level winds ahead of it across northern Nevada, southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Models are in good agreement with tight pressure gradients this area and a 100+ kt jet between H400 and H300 layers. This system will track to the east along the Canadian Border with the associated trough and frontal boundary pushing across eastern Utah and Western Colorado this evening into Friday, bringing widespread showers to the region overnight through Friday evening. Ahead of this system today, expect strong southwesterly winds across the northern and central valley areas with wind advisories in effect for all but the Grand Valley from 11 AM through 2 AM tomorrow. Look for isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms with the cold front tonight into tomorrow with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet. These storms may produce brief periods of low visibility and rapidly changing road conditions in possible snow squalls. If you plan to drive through the mountains during this time, allow extra time to reach your destination. This system doesn't have a lot of moisture with it, so we expect only a few inches snow through the northern and central mountains with an inch or so possible in the northern valleys. The lower valleys, including the Grand valley, will likely see a dusting Friday morning. The primary concern is the hard freeze forecast Friday night into Saturday morning as this system moves off to the east. Many of the valleys across the region will see temperatures ten degrees or more below normal with morning lows in the teens to upper 20's. Freeze Watches have been issued as we gear up for this impactful event. LOOKING AHEAD: A ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend into early next week resulting in the return of unseasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly clear skies will dominate for terminals along and south of I-70, with high and mid-level clouds filling in to the north. Ceilings will remain above breakpoints through the period for most locations. KVEL may see ceilings lower below breakpoints after 21z tomorrow afternoon as showers fill in. Winds in sheltered valleys will become light and terrain driven tonight, although LLWS will likely develop for these locations by daybreak. Elsewhere, southerly winds around 10 knots will remain. Winds become southerly to southwesterly after 15z, with gusts peaking in the 30-40 knot range in the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ001-002- 007-008-011. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ008-021>023. UT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ024-027. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for UTZ024. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  227 FXUS63 KGID 160531 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1231 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing spotty showers and weak thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of the daytime heating this evening. - Widespread critical fire weather expected on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area for the afternoon through late evening hours. - Strong northerly winds (peak gusts around 40-45 MPH) are likely on Friday behind a cold front. - Friday's cold front will bring seasonably cold air in for the weekend. However, with such a mild late winter/early spring and fast start to the growing season, will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM because of near or slightly-sub-freezing temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 It's been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don't expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in only the strongest of cores. Models haven't really been handling this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S. Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F. Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time. Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by. Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme SE zones, but this could be generous. Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn't overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze isn't until last week of April or first week of May for all but our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3 weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention to the cold temperatures. The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Skies largely remain mostly clear-clear through the period, some upper level clouds look to start streaming into the area from the southwest during the evening hours. Winds tonight remain on the lighter side around 10 MPH...starting out southerly, turning more southwesterly. During the daytime hours today, winds remain south-southwestely, with afternoon gusts of 25-35 MPH expected. Gusty conditions look to continue on through the end of this period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Truly appreciable rain has been hard to come by this spring, and the near-term trends don't look any better. As a result, and because spring green- up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for more fire weather concerns. - THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Critical fire weather conditions will return in earnest as a surface low pressure system deepens to our west and southerly winds increase to solidly- breezy levels. Expect commonly sustained winds around 20 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent - lowest W of Hwy 281. As a result, a Red Flag Warnings has been issued for Thursday afternoon through late evening for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that diurnal RH improvement during the evening will be quite a bit slower than usual. - FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns. - SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Thies  791 FXUS61 KALY 160533 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Quick update late this afternoon to raise temperatures in most areas from around Albany south. Also lowered PoPs across the entire area through sunset due to lack of forcing and a well mixed environment. 07 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. there is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms this evening, and a better chance tomorrow with a slight risk (level 2/5) for areas north of I-90. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard from any severe storm both days. 2. Tranquil weather expected Friday into early next week. Temperatures trend below normal Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM EDT: Earlier this morning, a decaying MCS tracked through the region, which helped to reinforce the thermal gradient along a sfc frontal boundary that was draped near the I-90 corridor. This boundary has become more diffuse and drifted back north over the last hour or two, but there is still large temperature contrast across the region with 60s across northern areas to low 80s near the I-84 corridor. Confidence is low whether or not any convection will develop this afternoon/evening. If it does, this boundary will likely be the focus for CI. However, low- level convergence along this boundary isn't overly strong, and there is not much in the way of upper-level support with weak height rises aloft. Current satellite imagery shows some modest vertical growth to the cu field to our west over central NY, but not to the extent that we would like to see to give us confidence in convection developing. That said, if any convection does develop, the environment south of I-90 is generally favorable with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. If any storms develop they could therefore become strong to severe (primary hazard gusty winds), but will emphasize that this threat is conditional upon convection actually developing. Even if storms develop, expecting coverage to remain isolated at best this afternoon into early evening. However, upper forcing increases tonight as a shortwave aloft tracks along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will increase as well. A decaying MCS associated with the upper shortwave is expected to track from west to east across our region, bringing better chances for rain and thunderstorms. Showalter values drop as low as -2 to -4, but model forecast soundings suggest that the instability should remain elevated. Therefore, we are not expecting any additional severe weather with the showers and storms overnight tonight. Tomorrow, a sfc low out ahead of a fairly potent upper shortwave trough tracks from the Great Lakes across the North Country. This will lift the stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front, putting our entire region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards across upstate NY tomorrow, a pre-frontal trough will track across the region during the afternoon. Then, the sfc low will drag a cold front through the region tomorrow evening, which will coincide with strengthening upper forcing/height falls aloft as the aforementioned strong shortwave approaching from the west. Strengthening flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave will yield 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Instability also looks supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE and some locally higher pockets. Main question is whether the pre-frontal trough will act as the mechanism to initiate convection, or if things will hold off until the cold front and better upper forcing arrive in the very late afternoon/evening. Regardless, the parameter space looks fairly impressive, especially for mid April, so we agree with the SPC slight risk for severe storms across northern portions of our region. Any cells that develop with the pre-frontal trough could initially be discrete, but straight hodographs suggest splitting cells/upscale growth, especially as we get into the evening with better forcing arriving. Main threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values look to increase to around 1000 J/kg, but the straight hodographs and fast flow aloft will also support a secondary hail threat. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but there is not a lot of low-level directional shear and LCLs may be on the higher side given potential for deep BL mixing before any storms develop. Best chance for severe convection will be near and north of I-90, but there is a marginal risk for most of the rest of our region. Main threat would be wind as storms track into an area with a deeply-mixed BL, but instability should be waning by this time with the still relatively early sunsets. Timing for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms come to and end Thursday night as the cold front tracks off to the south and east of our region. Cooler and drier air filters into the region Friday, with mainly dry conditions across the region. Tranquil weather expected Friday and Saturday as ridging amplifies aloft and high pressure at the surface builds down from the north. A deepening sfc low tracking through the Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front northward through the region and bring scattered showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder Saturday night, but given overnight timing of the frontal passage severe weather is not expected. Behind this cold front, breezy but dry weather is expected Sunday/Monday. Much cooler weather is also expected behind this front with highs only in the 40s to 50s Sunday and 30s to 40s Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Bands of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the region. Although most of the activity is now east of KGFL and KALB, the heaviest rainfall is currently impacting KPOU and KPSF. Over the next hour, IFR visibility within rain and thunder will impact KPSF and KPOU and some gusty winds up to 30 kts are possible as well. Behind this activity, flying conditions should generally be VFR through the rest of the overnight hours, with sct-bkn cigs around 4 kft and another layer around 10-15 kft as well. Light winds are expected for the late night hours. For now, won't forecast any low clouds or fog, although cannot totally rule it out if breaks in the higher clouds were to occur, especially for locations that saw significant rainfall. During the day on Thursday, flying conditions look VFR for most of the day. Sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft will be in place with west to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts. As a storm system approaches, some scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening, mainly between 22z and 02z. Within any thunderstorm, brief heavy rainfall may allow for IFR visibility and gusty winds over 30 kts are possible. This activity could impact KGFL, KPSF and KALB, so will include a PROB30 for these sites, but will not mention for KPOU, as activity looks north of there. Winds will become lighter from a westerly direction for Thursday night. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 90(1941) Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...27 CLIMATE...07  223 FXUS64 KLCH 160533 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, humid conditions will continue through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will move through the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms with the potential for localized heavy rainfall. - Behind the front, cooler, drier air will make its way into the region Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A surface high pressure system over the Atlantic east of the Florida coast will continue to ridge westward along the northern Gulf coast and into the forecast area through early Saturday. This will keep a warm and muggy air mass in place. Both high and low temperatures will be around 5 degrees above climo norms. The forecast area through the end of the week will also be on the edge of a Gulf upper level ridge that will bring mainly a dry southwest flow in the mid levels keeping a cap in place. Daytime heating will allow some clouds to form, however, the cap will limit any shower activity. In the immediate term for tonight into early Thursday, boundary layer winds are expected to stay up enough that will preclude widespread fog with a low stratus deck preferred. At the end of the week into the weekend, the upper level ridge over the Gulf will flatten and weaken as it shifts to the south. Meanwhile, a significant upper level storm system over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward and deepen into a sharp upper level trough as it moves east of the Rockies. This system will help move a surface cold front across the forecast area Saturday evening into the overnight. Both East Pac and western Gulf moisture will be picked up ahead of the upper level trough and pool ahead of the frontal system. The moistening airmass will help erode the cap and along with frontal lift help initiate showers ahead of the front. Instability is enough during the late afternoon and early evening hours that a few thunderstorms should mix in with the shower activity. Anomalously high moisture values are expected by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with PWAT values above the 90th percentile of 1.6 inches and near the max moving value of 1.9 inches. Meanwhile, Mean Layer Relative Humidity values are progged to be above 80 percent. Which means any storms that form could be efficient precipitation producers. As the front moves eastward during the night, instability will decrease and intensity of the shower activity should also decrease as the activity moves toward Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. Forecast rainfall amounts that fall with that scenario have highest rainfall amounts northwest of a Beaumont/Port Arthur to Opelousas line with average rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch. The probability of a "wetting" rain or amounts greater than 1/4 of an inch is over 50 percent in that area, and probability of over 1 inch is 30 percent in that area. It should be noted that mean wind field decreases and does become parallel to the theta-e ridge along the front in the evening hours, and if any strong convection is ongoing some high rainfall rates may fall for a length of time and the NBM shows highest rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches if this occurs. Therefore, WPC does have a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 1 out of 4) during the Saturday night time period. Behind the front, continental air mass from the Canadian Prairies will move in bringing cooler temperatures through Monday with lows and highs some 5 to 10 degrees below climo norms. On Sunday afternoon, low relative humidity values between 25 and 35 percent and some gusty northeast winds may bring about some degree of fire danger, however a lot will depend on how much rain falls on Saturday night. By mid week, temperatures begin to warm up again. A more active southwest flow will also allow for a chance of showers. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Southerly flow will continue to bring in moisture under the nocturnal inversion overnight. Surface winds will continue to be very light, however average boundary layer winds are expected to stay up around 10 knots with boundary layer temperatures staying above surface dew points. This situation points to MVFR ceilings from low clouds rather than visibility restrictions. Ceilings will become VFR by mid morning Thursday. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Surface high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf from off the Florida coast through Saturday that will allow for a persistent southerly flow. The light to modest onshore flow will increase on Friday into Friday night with building seas as low pressure forms over the Plains. A cold front in forecast to move through on Saturday night with strong and gusty northerly winds along with building seas behind it. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Although fuels remain dry across the region with various degrees of drought continues, persistent southerly flow for the next few days will bring in low level moisture that will allow for minimum afternoon relative humidity values to range from 40 to 60 percent, this will help keep the fire danger somewhat in check through Saturday. A cold front will move across Saturday night that may bring some portions of the area a wetting rain. Strong northerly winds and low relative humidity values are expected behind the front on Sunday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...07  630 FXUS63 KLOT 160533 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief break in the pattern is expected later today through the day on Friday before another storm system and potential severe weather arrives Friday late afternoon and evening. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Through Thursday... The primary weather focus in the near continues to revolve around the expectation for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly this evening. A recent surface analysis indicates that an area of low pressure resides across southeastern NE, with an associated surface cold front extending south-southwestward into the TX Panhandle. While our area has remained cloudy, increased insolation west of the area in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary continues to destabilize the very moist (dew points in the low to mid 60s) low-level prefrontal airmass across MO into south central IA. This will set the stage for additional thunderstorm development mid to late this afternoon west of our area as increased forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level impulse ejecting into the Mid-Missouri Valley overspreads the frontal boundary. After storms onset, a gradual upward growth into an MCS is anticipated this evening as they shift eastward across the Mississippi river. It appears the primary severe weather threat with these storms will be west of our area, with storms likely to be on a weakening trend as they progress eastward across northern IL during the mid to late evening hours. Nevertheless, a continued favorable kinematic environment overhead may continue to support a threat for localized strong wind gusts with the weakening line of storms. Heavy rainfall is expected to accompany these storms through the evening, and this does continue to add concerns for possible hydro concerns tonight. However, it appears the heaviest rain rates may remain more progressive with the moving line of storms tonight. Accordingly, it appears the threat for significant flash flooding is lower than previously thought. Nevertheless, areas across far northern IL that received heavy rainfall last night will be most at risk for additional flooding concerns., With this in mind, we have opted to hold onto the going flash flood watch for this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to become more widely scattered overnight tonight into Thursday as the main mid-level impulse shifts overhead. As an afternoon lake breeze develops and pushes inland across northeastern IL and northwestern IN Thursday afternoon in the wake of the surface low, this may act as a focus for additional isolated shower activity for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Outside of this, conditions will be drying out Thursday afternoon and evening. KJB Friday - Saturday: Strong southerly warm and moist convection will return into the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This boundary is expected to progress across the area sometime late Friday into early Saturday morning paired with a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Suspect that less favorable diurnal timing of any lingering storms into the morning on Saturday may limit the overall severe threat here locally before storms reintensify east of the area into the rest of the day. Stay tuned! Saturday night onward: In the wake of the early Saturday cold front, a much colder airmass (relative to what we have had over the past several days) will settle into the region over the weekend. Overnight low temperatures may drop into the 30s, with some near to sub- freezing temperatures possible across interior northern Illinois. Lighter winds in place Sunday night may allow for frost development outside of Chicago and will be something for those with agricultural interests to monitor over the next few days. The cooler conditions will be rather short-lived with extended guidance favoring a return toward high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Petr && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Forecast concerns include... - Wind directions during the early overnight hours. - Wind shift to northeast Thursday afternoon. - Mvfr cigs overnight into Thursday. - Periodic shower chances. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue moving away from the terminals through the early overnight. There will be continued chances for showers through Thursday afternoon with quite a bit of uncertainty for timing and have included prolonged periods of vicinity shower mention. It appears the best chance for additional showers will be from late morning through early afternoon but timing will need to be adjusted as trends emerge. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but no mention with expected low coverage. Prevailing winds are shifting to the east southeast across northwest IL in the wake of the showers and this southeast shift is expected across the Chicago terminals, at least for a short time, before winds turn back to the southwest early this morning. Confidence is low for specific directions and changes may be needed. Winds may begin to gust into the 20kt range by daybreak as directions slowly turn more westerly Thursday morning. Confidence is also low for winds Thursday afternoon. Directions will likely continue turning to the northwest Thursday afternoon and then a lake breeze boundary is expected to move inland during the mid/late afternoon. Timing confidence has decreased and will need to be refined with later forecasts. Winds will turn southeasterly Thursday evening. Prevailing mvfr cigs are expected to develop overnight, continue Thursday morning then lift to vfr Thursday afternoon. However, low cigs are possible with the lake breeze boundary. In addition, there will likely be fog over Lake Michigan and some of the model guidance is spreading this fog inland Thursday evening and across the Chicago terminals early Friday morning. Confidence is too low to include any lower cigs or fog for ORD/MDW in their new 30 hour tafs and trends will need to be monitored. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005- ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010- INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  955 FXUS64 KEWX 160533 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A trough continues to lift northeast early this morning bringing a brief period of mid-level ridging over the area. A weak disturbance may bring enough forcing to generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, but primarily expect dry, though humid, conditions today. Cloud cover will begin to scatter mid to late morning with partly sunny skies and highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon. Persistent south to southeasterly low- level flow will allow for another night of low cloud development bringing above normal low temperatures to the area in the mid 60s to low 70s. A trough digs into the Central Plains on Friday which will aid in a cold front moving towards our area Friday night into Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon Friday with southerly wind from 10 to 20 mph. Another warm day is expected with highs along the I-35 corridor near 90 degrees with the mid 90s forecast over the Rio Grande Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A deep trough continues its progression east bringing a cold front to our doorstep Saturday morning. This front will move across the entirety of South Central Texas by mid to late afternoon bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Precipitable water values increase ahead of the front generally ranging from 1.5-1.75 inches. With deep moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Saturday in a favorable environment for instances of locally heavy rainfall. WPC continues to highlight a good portion of our area in a Level 1 of 4 for excessive rainfall this day. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with this activity on Saturday as well, though the earlier timing of the front will likely limit this potential. Cooler air filters in behind the front keeping mild lows on Saturday from the upper 60s to low 70s in the north to the low 80s in the south. Precipitation chances continue into Sunday but will mainly be light rain with the highest rain chances in our southern and western areas. Some elevated instability may allow for some thunderstorms to develop as well this day, but will likely be sub-severe. Otherwise expect a somewhat breezy day under overcast skies with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. A disturbance within southwesterly flow aloft allows for rain chances to continue Sunday night into Monday, then additional disturbances continue low chances for showers and storms for some of our area into mid-week. Low level flow turns easterly on Monday with coolest high temperatures of the week forecast in the 60s to low 70s across South Central Texas. Southeasterly wind then returns Tuesday bringing a day by day warming trend into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 MVFR conditions are anticipated for all area terminals through around noon/17Z Thursday. There is a window of opportunity for IFR cigs around 11Z to 14Z for the San Antonio sites, however, confidence is low to be included as part of the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate the afternoon and evening periods with a southeast to south wind flow ranging from 8 to 16 knots with gusts up to 24 knots mainly in the afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 89 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 68 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 66 86 61 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 70 92 67 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 67 89 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 89 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...17  849 FXUS63 KDTX 160533 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms; some rivers are expected to reach/exceed flood stage. - A Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather today south of I-69. - Conditions dry out briefly on Friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. - Turning windier and much colder Sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s; a few snowflakes are possible. && .AVIATION... Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the Tri-Cities with scattered coverage along a line moving across central lower Michigan. Focus for this activity will continue until about 09-10Z. Enough lightning activity is associated with the scattered activity so have gone with TEMPO groups with this TAF issuance. Anticipate that much of this activity will be weakening with time as it approaches the terminal corridor later tonight. Will have a low potential to see a brief period of MVFR conditions with any thunderstorm. Another chance for scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms develops again during the early afternoon. Predominately VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorm activity through today. The southwest to west winds will be turning northerly towards the evening as frontal boundary settles southward and brings at least some scattered low cloud potential. DTW/D21 Convection... Scattered convection moving across central Lower Michigan will move towards DTW closer to the 07Z to 09Z window presenting a chance at a brief thunderstorm. Activity appears like it will be weakening as it approaches. Severe threat appears low. Another period of thunderstorm potential remains worthy of a PROB30 for the afternoon. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft after 06Z tonight. * Low for thunderstorm tonight. Low to medium this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 DISCUSSION... An active stretch of convection continues this afternoon and evening as the next round of thunderstorms move through Southeast Michigan. The primary stalled frontal boundary remains hung-up over northern Lower Michigan with dewpoints in the 40s, while downstate values are much higher, mostly in the 60s. This warm/moist airmass holds while a secondary, more subtle, convergence axis has become the area of greater concern for additional convective development, positioned from northern Indiana into the southern Ontario peninsula. Forecast soundings have hinted at some low-level CIN as weak capping in the 3- 5 kft layer tries to emerge, but CI over southern Monroe county proved that some surface-based parcels are still able to capitalize on potential instability. Extensive cloud cover limits deeper CAPE density, but fresh updrafts have managed to emerge along the boundary. A remnant MCV moving across the Tri-State area at press time follows a similar trajectory as it brushes southern Lower, and should maintain integrity given ambient shear and ThetaE convergence. A Slight Risk remains outlooked for much of Southeast Michigan by SPC, but the emphasis will be on locations south of I-94 where instability is maximized. Strong gusts and large hail are the anticipated severe hazards, but a weak tornado threat remains given 100+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, and persistent rotation from the inbound MCV (and vicinity storms). Further north, expect scattered coverage with a lesser concern for severe. Slightly higher risk for a few additional strong storms exists over the Tri-Cities and Thumb region this evening with the arrival of higher MUCAPE bubble. Mild again tonight with lows only in the 60s. More showers and thunderstorms develop overnight as the southern stream jet positions atop the Great Lakes with several perturbations rippling through. Healthy 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 knots will be available tonight, with some linearity in convective mode arising at times. Mixed signals exist regarding the prevalence of surface mixing potential, or if a weak nocturnal inversion can hold to keep convection more elevated. Very minimal change noted in mid-level temperature profiles tonight, but layer dewpoints/PWATs should rise supporting heavy rainfall rates, given increasing background tendency for synoptic ascent. Mid-level lapse rates remain below 6.5 C/km. Latest CAMs offer little clarity in timing a reprieve from convection on Thursday, therefore, early morning, late morning, and afternoon convective potential exists. Shortwave trough feature embedded within the mean flow slides through aloft between 15Z and 21Z. This provides a boost in CVA, leading to low-end severe potential, limited by instability. Shortwave ridging then slides in Friday with high confidence in a mainly dry day. Amplified longwave trough of eastern Pacific origin reaches Lower Michigan Friday night, favoring anomalous warmth, convection, and breezy conditions. The system forces a stark cold front through Saturday sending 850 mb temperatures crashing into the minus teens (Celsius). A transition to light snow showers is possible Sunday morning with post-frontal northwest flow and ensuing cold advection to close out the weekend. MARINE... Active pattern remains firmly in place as additional scattered areas of showers cross the region this evening. Thunderstorm potential is highest across the southern half of the area, particularly over the southern Great Lakes where a few strong to severe storms are possible (wind gusts in excess of 34kts being the primary hazard though some large hail or an isolated waterspout are possible). Trough moves into the area by Thursday maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms. System peels away from the region by Thursday night ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30s. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential is lower (<30%) at this time. HYDROLOGY... Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through Thursday night. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday evening. While broad-scale forecasted rainfall totals today through Thursday are generally around 1 inch, any focused areas of convection could significantly over-perform. The primary concern is for thunderstorms to train, leading to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for worse flooding. Confidence in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains low tonight and Thursday, but the overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall rates. Afternoon rainfall rates have ranged between approximately 1 and 2 inches. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....KGK/SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  042 FXUS62 KFFC 160534 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 134 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across portions of north and central GA. Fire weather concerns will persist through the end of the week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Relative humidity minima are forecast to be around 25-35 percent during the afternoons of Thursday and Friday. Surface winds will be southwest at around 6-12 mph on Thursday and west at 4-8 mph on Friday. Gusts to near 20 mph are possible on Thursday afternoon, with the risk higher for areas of higher terrain. 20 foot winds are expected to be similar to those at the surface, possibly 1-3 mph faster. Mixing height maxima will be around 6000-7000 feet on Thursday and 7000-9000 on Friday. Though there is the potential for some rain showers tomorrow afternoon into the evening, mostly over north Georgia (around 10-30% chance), wetting rains are unlikely. Note: Due to ongoing drought and lack of rainfall, critical fire weather conditions will be reached at relative humidity of 30% or less. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Staying Warm, and Dry for Most through Saturday: The extended periods begin right where the short term leaves off with dry and warm conditions continuing. With zero precip chances Fri, and Sat, temps expected to rise well above seasonal norms with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s across north and central GA. The models are showing the ridge over the region weakening Sat as a weak frontal boundary nears NW GA Sat night. the biggest issue is the atmosphere is extremely dry ahead of this front so as it pushes into GA it dries out and most of the area will only see increased cloud cover. Portions of NW GA will see some light showers Sat night into Sun morning but only expecting 0.1" to 0.25" total for area North and West of Carrollton, to Atlanta, to Gainesville line. Unfortunately, even with this frontal boundary moving through it is very likely not going to support the coverage and amount of rainfall necessary to put a dent in the Severe (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3) that covers much of the CWA. The front is expected to move south and east of the area Sun night bringing in a cooler/drier airmass for the beginning of next week. Temps Mon morning will be down into the 40s with highs Mon mainly in the 70s. More importantly relative humidity values will be in the teens to lower 20s Monday and Tuesday keeping dangerous fire weather conditions across the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with isolated patches of fog in the early morning remaining south of all TAF sites. Winds will begin the morning from SW at 5 kts increasing to 5-9 kts after 15Z and through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less after 01Z, becoming light and variable at times during the overnight hours. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 56 85 58 85 / 10 0 0 10 Cartersville 59 90 62 90 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 60 90 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 61 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 60 90 61 89 / 10 0 0 10 Peachtree City 59 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 62 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRS LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King  597 FXUS64 KBRO 160534 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Key Messages: * Dry and breezy to windy southeasterly continue into Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly above average. * A cold front arrives Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing unsettled weather and potentially at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rain from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. * Daytime high temperatures drop 10-20 degrees behind the front, before warming back into the 80s by the middle of next week. * A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Semi-zonal and southwesterly flow aloft from troughing and shortwaves to the west and and influence from an expanding mid/upper high pressure over Mexico maintain dry and breezy conditions as a series of surface low pressure systems move across the Plains. Friday into Saturday, a cut-off mid-level low deepens and strengthens an associated surface low across the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes while surface high pressure expands across the Gulf. This will tighten a pressure gradient across Deep South Texas, enhancing afternoon and early evening southeasterly wind gusts from 20-30 mph on Thursday to 25-35 mph on Friday. At this time, probabilistic guidance indicates a low (15-30%) chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph across portions of the Lower and Middle RGV on on Friday afternoon, which is not high enough to consider a Wind Advisory, but will keep an eye on it. Breezy conditions persist into Saturday. As the surface low strengthens, a cold front is expected to stretch into Texas by Friday night and is currently anticipated to pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The combination of moisture pooling and increasing lift ahead of the front, followed by coastal troughing and mid-level disturbance(s) behind the front are likely to bring some unsettled weather to Deep South Texas, with a growing potential for more beneficial rain, though will be monitored closely for potential excessive rainfall hazards and impacts. Developing showers and thunderstorms increase chances of rain late Saturday evening to as much as a medium to likely (60-80%) chance by Sunday morning continuing through the afternoon hours. Chances of rain slow drop Sunday night to a low to medium (30-50%) chance next Monday and a low (15-20%) chance on Tuesday. Though there remains time for the specific details to be more confidently established, our latest storm total QPF amounts indicate most of the CWA receiving at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rainfall from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. Slow moving showers and thunderstorms could bring up to 1.5 inches west of US-281, where the NBM advertises a 30-60% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 2.00 inches. Following, drier conditions resume, possibly by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain a few degrees above average, increasing a few degrees into Saturday, with highs reaching maximizing into the low/mid 90s and possibly upper 90s across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Upper RGV, while overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s. Highs could drop by 10-20 degrees behind the front, with highs potentially reaching only into the 70s on Sunday, which is 5-10 degrees below average, or cooler. Southeasterly winds return and temperatures warm back to the 80s by the middle of next week. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with moderate to breezy winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines are likely across the Laguna Madre during the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday as a pressure gradient develops and results in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) are possible on Friday as winds further enhance to fresh to strong. Winds ease and become easterly Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front arriving late Saturday night, bringing strong northeasterly winds, rough seas and unsettled weather through Sunday afternoon. SCAs are likely. Marine conditions improve throughout Sunday night, though SCEC and lingering chances of rain continue into the beginning of next week, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds resuming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  931 FXUS64 KHUN 160534 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is a low-medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday (mainly afternoon and evening). A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - There is a high (60-80%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Over the course of the near term period, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward from the MO Valley into the eastern Great Lakes within the flow around a dampening subtropical ridge centered across the eastern Gulf. However, along the southwestern flank of the trough, subtle amplification of a secondary 500-mb wave is predicted to occur as it lifts east- northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South region. In the low-levels, a weakening area of low pressure (related to the northern trough) should reach Lake MI by 12Z Thursday before tracking further east-northeastward into southern QC/northern New England by 0Z Friday. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface trough extending south-southwestward from the low will remain to our west through sunrise, although modest elevated warm/moist advection associated with a 20-25 knot southwesterly low-level jet will contribute to an increase in stratocumulus clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain (mainly across the western portion of the CWFA) early Thursday morning. Otherwise, a light SSW wind at the surface will lead to another mild night, featuring lows ranging from the m-u 50s (northeast AL) to the l-m 60s (elsewhere). Partly-mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a few light showers will continue across the region late tomorrow morning, as an outflow boundary spreads eastward in advance of a diminishing area of rain and some embedded thunderstorms to our west. However, forecast soundings indicate that skies will partially clear beginning early tomorrow afternoon, with redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms expected to occur in the vicinity of the increasingly diffuse surface trough (or perhaps a mesoscale boundary) extending from eastern KY southwestward into northern MS. Storm coverage will likely be limited by weak low-level convergence, warranting a gradient in POPs from 10-20%/SE to 40-50%/NW. However, with CAPE reaching 500-750 J/kg as temps rise into the l-m 80s and WSW flow aloft of 45-50 knots providing sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, a few cells producing small hail and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 MPH may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the afternoon hours tomorrow, convection-allowing models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of a trailing outflow boundary (extending from western AR into southern MO). As large scale ascent strengthens with the approach of an amplifying mid-level wave, this activity may tend to evolve into a small but somewhat organized cluster of storms as it spreads southeastward late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening, before gradually dissipating later tomorrow evening as it becomes displaced from the initiating trough. Although the system should be weakening as it tracks across our CWFA, a second round of rain and some thunderstorms may occur early tomorrow evening, accompanied by a risk for locally strong wind gusts (especially across northwest AL). Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible in locations that are fortunate enough to receive measurable rainfall as temps drop into the u50s-l60s. South-southwesterly flow will resume on Friday as a surface low develops north-northeastward (from eastern NE into western Lake Superior) in response to an intensifying trough tracking eastward across southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. With a developing subsidence inversion in the mid-levels expected to result in mostly sunny skies and dry conditions on Friday, afternoon temps will return to the m-u 80s, which may fall just shy of record highs for the day. Overnight lows will drop into the l-m 60s Saturday morning. Latest short range model guidance still suggests that rapid intensification of the northern stream trough will support steady deepening of the related surface low as it tracks northeastward across eastern OT and into northern QC by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, a cold front will spread southeastward, likely reaching northwestern AL late Saturday afternoon and exiting our forecast area by Midnight. After diminishing in coverage during the morning hours on Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the southern portion of the cold front Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and a lingering layer of stable air aloft begins to erode with the approach of the mid-level trough. With mid-level WSW flow predicted to increase into the 50-60 knot range Saturday evening, deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized storm clusters, capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. However, this will likely be more of a concern across northwest AL where instability will be maximized around the time of frontal passage. In the wake of the front, a 2-4 hour window of light rain can be expected, as winds veer to the north and begin to advect a cooler continental airmass into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will be swinging from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the eastern seaboard through Monday. Ridging tries to build in the wake of this through midweek, but a few shortwave ripples are shown to dive into the region from the mid Mississippi River Valley during this time. At the surface, a cold front will have passed to our southeast by Sunday morning, with high pressure from western Canada and the northwest CONUS pushing into the Southeastern states. This feature will largely maintain its hold on the eastern CONUS until it is shunted eastward through midweek by a system sweeping over Canada. For sensible weather for the local area, there may be some lingering showers early Sunday morning from the system that is slated to move through on Saturday (discussed above), but much of the long term period looks to be dry. Although, we will need to keep an eye on Wednesday, as some guidance hints at the potential (albeit low probability) for the aformentioned upper shortwaves to bring some rain to the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is low at this point due to model discrepancies, but stay tuned! Don't pack those jackets away for the season just yet, since it will be fairly cool to start the week. Cold air advection from the high pressure moving in from the northwest CONUS and western Canada will result in highs topping out in the 60s Sunday afternoon and forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night! Monday will be pleasant with highs in the lower 70s with lows in the 40s that night. Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on if you like or dislike cooler weather), temperatures will then begin to moderate once again through midweek. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Winds will become gusty late this morning and afternoon out SW/WSW between 10-15 kts before weakening after sunset. A weak front will approach the area from the northwest, bringing some -SHRA during the late morning through mid afternoon and have added a PROB30 highlight this. Overall, VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each terminal through the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70 SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24  049 FXUS61 KRLX 160535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 135 AM Update... New Aviation Discussion. Also, timing on the system impacting the area this afternoon and tonight is faster, potentially increasing the eastward extent of the Marginally Severe Risk. 725 PM Update... New Aviation Discussion 138 PM Update... Still some uncertainty on how far showers and storms will be able to carry into the region Thursday given very dry antecedent conditions. Conditional risk for strong to severe storms Saturday. Increased fire danger through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Near to record heat will persist through Saturday. 2.) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and relatively low humidity will be joined by wind gusts 20-30 mph on Thursday. 3.) A few strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley. High uncertainty as to how far east any threat will carry. 4.) A sharp cold front Saturday night will end the heat wave, bringing a period of beneficial rain and much colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Conditional threat for strong to severe storms Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An anomalous mid-level ridge remains anchored from the central Gulf to Florida, keeping the region in a deep southwesterly flow regime. Across the lowlands, expect highs generally in the 80s with a few sites approaching or exceeding record values today. While a weak shortwave on Thursday will introduce cloud cover and keep highs in the low to mid 80s, the ridge rebuilds Friday. Saturday looks to be the pinnacle of this heat wave for the Metro Valley and southern coalfields. Deterministic guidance is currently near record levels, but 90th percentile statistical data suggests isolated 90F readings are possible if precipitation struggles to invade a very dry antecedent airmass. KEY MESSAGE 2... Fire weather concerns remain at the forefront through Friday. Despite the rapid green-up of live fuels in the lowlands, 10-hour fuel moistures at RAWS sites are critically low, ranging from 7 to 9 percent. This afternoon and Friday will see minimum relative humidity values bottoming out between 30 and 35 percent with relatively light winds. However, Thursday presents a more significant challenge. As a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley, the pressure gradient tightens. Expect southwesterly sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Even with RH values slightly higher (upper 30s) due to moisture advection, the combination of wind and dry dead fuels may necessitate an Increased Fire Danger Statement for at least parts of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... A shortwave trough tracking from the Mississippi Valley will bring the next chance for convection Thursday afternoon. However, a significant dry sub-cloud layer remains between the surface and H500, which will likely limit overall precipitation coverage and result in high-based cells as they progress eastward. Low-level lapse rates remain steep, and with DCAPE potential over 800 J/kg, any sustained updraft will pose a risk for marginally severe downburst winds. The best potential remains focused across southeast Ohio and the middle Ohio Valley where forcing is strongest and storms will encounter the least amount of dry air. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift is confirmed for the weekend. A deep longwave trough will eject from the Plains, driving a strong surface cold front through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Synoptic lift is much more robust with this system compared to previous waves. While timing will dictate the exact severe threat, current kinematics with 0-6km bulk wind difference of 45 KTs support organized storm modes should sufficient instability emerge. This system appears to be the most likely candidate for a wetting rain. Strong cold advection follows the frontal passage. H85 temperatures are forecast to drop from +15C on Saturday to -5C by Sunday night. This will result in high temperatures retreating to the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. Under clear skies and diminishing winds Sunday night and Monday night, areas subject to cold air drainage away could see frost. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the day, then brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible within any showers or thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon or evening. Late-day thunderstorms today could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light south to southwest winds early this morning strengthen again later this morning, with 15 to 25 kt gusts today, before becoming light southwest to variable tonight. Late-day thunderstorms could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be minimal low level wind shear early this morning, and again overnight tonight. Wind gusts today will fluctuate, possibly including stronger gusts than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and late Saturday through Saturday night. && .Climate... Observed / Record Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------- Wed, 4/15 | Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | ------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 88 / 89 (1994) | 85 / 89 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 88 / 87 (2024) | 83 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 85 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 85 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 79 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 86 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) | ------------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM/JP  028 FXUS64 KMOB 160535 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper ridge over the extreme southeastern states retreats to over the Gulf through Thursday night as an upper trof progresses across much of the eastern states. The upper ridge begins to build back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western half of the CONUS. The large upper trof continues off across the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the frontal passage, light nocturnal winds and clear to mostly clear skies look to favor fog development each night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight until 14Z Thursday. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge look to inhibit the potential for convective development through Saturday afternoon. Deep layer moisture will meanwhile begin to improve on Saturday, and looks sufficient to support mostly slight chance to chance pops for Saturday night as the front moves through, with slight chance pops lingering into Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail through Tuesday with a slight chance for rain returning to much of the area by Wednesday. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s with highs in the mid to upper 80s following for Friday. Saturday will have highs in the lower to mid 80s, then highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the lower to mid 70s. Daytime highs gradually trend warmer through Wednesday to mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows through Friday night tend to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, then trend cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows then moderate by Wednesday night to range from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, then a low risk follows for Friday through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR flight category currently will degrade overnight to MVFR and IFR flight category as fog begins to develop. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While afternoon humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels through the weekend, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area due to ongoing drought conditions. For Monday of next week, afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25%, and conditions will be closely monitored for possibly reaching Red Flag criteria. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 85 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  393 FXUS63 KJKL 160535 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. - Showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is southeast of a strong area of low pressure working east through the Central Plains. The high is keeping the weather warm and dry through the area. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the eastern Gulf to FL area with the axis of this ridge extending north to the coast of the Carolinas to VA. Further west a trough extended through the Central Conus with an upper low over northeastern NE. Another shortwave was over the High Plains of CO to NW vicinity at this time. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was to the west of this trough from the Southwest Conus to the Four Corners region while an upper low was over the BC to Pacific Northwest vicinity with a trough south to CA. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from New England to the Great Lakes to a sfc near the IA/NE border and then south to the Southern Plains. Sfc high pressure was centered in the Southeast Conus with ridging extending into the Southern Appalachians. A few cumulus were in place across northwestern portions of the area where dewpoints were a bit higher in southwest flow in the mid to upper 50s while dewpoints in the south and southeast were in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures for all but the highest terrain were in the low to mid 80s. This evening and tonight, 500 mb heights are progged to trend upward early this evening before falling heights are anticipated later tonight as the upper low in the Plains tracks into WI and nears the western Great Lakes with the trailing shortwave entering the Lower OH Valley. At the same time, sfc high pressure will remain in place from the Southeast to off the southeast coast with ridging into the Southern Appalachians. Some high clouds should pass across eastern KY from time to time in this scenario, but moisture increases late if not during the day on Thursday. This should lead to several hours if not the entire night free of low and mid level clouds per 12Z HREF and eastern and southeastern valleys should again decouple and based on recent mixed dewpoints these locations should fall some 10 to 14 degrees below NBM deterministic values and to near readings that were observed this morning. Ridgetop and more open terrain locations should remain in the 60s. The upper low will weaken to an open wave by Thursday as it treks northeast to the Central Great Lakes while the axis of the upper ridge moves further east of the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. As the trailing shortwave passes by continued height falls should occur over eastern KY on Thursday while the shortwave that is initially in the High Plains moves across the Plains and nears the Lower OH Valley. That second shortwave should cross the area on Thursday evening into Thursday night. On Thursday, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE is on the lower end only peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range with some shear in the 30 to 40KT range for bulks shear. Recent CAM runs bring a few showers or an outflow boundary in from the west near or after dawn with some convection during peak heating. That activity may tend to wane and shift east of eastern KY by sunset on Thursday though some additional activity could affect southern portions of the area later Thursday evening and Thursday night with the second shortwave. This activity overall appears that it will be scattered in nature and rainfall from this will be variable, but generally a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. Locally higher amounts would occur with any thunderstorms and a couple of stronger wind gusts are not out of the question, especially if instability were to be higher than currently anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026 At the onset of the long term period, Friday morning, a highly amplified trough over the Rockies, is balanced out by a ridge over Eastern CONUS and the Great Lakes. Resultant weather will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for most. Increasing clouds are expected overnight with the Rockies system progressing into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east trough the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky sometime Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Shower and storm chances will increase over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast through the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and storms are then expected to taper off from northwest to southeast through Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds. At night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will cool temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20-25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning. High rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures remain depressed under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance, with the exception of KSME where viz is reduced to MVFR and at times IFR conditions due to smoke from a nearby large wildfire. Southwest wind shear remains in the forecast through around 12z-13z at most sites as a low-level jet reaches peak strength between 06z-09z this morning. Winds then increase again after sunrise on Thursday as a weather system nears. This will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds arriving in the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  920 FXUS62 KTAE 160536 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - There is a medium (60%) chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions over our marine zones for Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong upper level ridging will prevail into the weekend. Warming temperatures are expected area wide with highs in the low 90s likely across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia along I-75. Afternoon highs are about 10 degrees above normal however, we are not in record territory. Light south/southwesterly winds will allow for high humidity values in the early morning hours which will contribute to fog, provided that the winds go calm during the overnight hours. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s. There are no rain chances in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level low, well north of the Great Lakes, will have an associated cold front that will sweep across the Southeast late this weekend. The forcing mechanisms will be far removed from us, keeping us mostly dry as the front passes. There is a less than 20% chance for precipitation with this front. The main story is behind the front, the air mass will be dry and winds have the potential to increase. Although temperatures will return to the upper 70s and low 80s, the antecedent dry conditions will continue/increase the risk for fire danger heading into the start of the work week. Overnight low temperatures behind the front will be in the low 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Patchy to areas of fog will begin to develop over the next few hours bring prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP and potentially east and north to near the TLH and DHN terminals. Fog is expected to lift by mid morning across all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards as 10 knot southerly winds develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 High pressure will dominate the region into the weekend with light to gentle (generally) southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, there is about a 60% chance for Advisory level winds Sunday night into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Moderate to high dispersions can be expected for the next few afternoons. Transport winds around 10 mph from the southwest can be expected during the afternoon hours with mixing heights increasing each afternoon above 6500 feet. Despite the light winds, antecedent dry conditions will continue the elevated fire weather concerns heading into the weekend. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front falls to critical values in the low 20s percentage, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 63 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  007 FXUS61 KBOX 160536 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again Thursday night. - Pattern turns cooler early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor front brings cooling near coast but warmth continues inland through Friday. Backdoor front dropping southward will bring cooler temperatures at least to eastern MA coast as winds turn onshore, but warmer temperatures will persist inland. Front itself should meander over southern New England for next couple of days, probably settling near a line from Fitchburg to Norwood and Plymouth later this afternoon, retreating back north overnight, then dropping back southward again Thursday afternoon to about the same location. This certainly presents a big challenge with the temperature forecast, less so in CT and western MA which are more likely to maintain summertime warmth through Friday, but less so across RI and eastern MA depending upon exactly where front ends up and with its timing. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, later tonight, and again late Thursday. As front remains over or near southern New England, a series of weak low pressure centers will ride along it, each bringing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms. First round through early tonight looks to be more scattered in nature per high-res guidance. Already seeing CU development upstream across central NY where instability is increasing so that is where convective initiation should take place. Environment here will feature strong 0-6km shear and reasonably strong mid level lapse rates (6C/km) but best instability (1000 J/kg) is focused over western MA/CT which makes sense given that is the area to the west of the front. While we don't expect to see as much activity as we did Tuesday evening, there could still be a few storms between 4 PM and 8 PM, perhaps even a few hours later than that, capable of producing wind damage, especially in CT per HREF helicity swaths. Farther east in the cooler airmass, there is virtually no surface instability but perhaps enough instability aloft coupled with heating to pop up a few brief showers. Next round of showers and embedded thunderstorms arrives during the overnight hours ahead of weak short wave and weak surface low riding along front. We still have strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates approaching 7C/km, but instability is aloft and would support more in way of elevated thunder, not surface based, so overall severe threat is low. Once low moves offshore, it should drop front southward Thu morning before it retreats northward again in afternoon. We then remain under large scale subsidence until next stronger short wave approaches Thu night. Environment remains about same with greatest instability west of I-91 but continued presence of strong 0-6km shear and decent mid level lapse rates of 6-7C/km. Guidance shows showers and thunderstorms forming to out west during the day, which arrives here Thu night and weakens as it does so. KEY MESSAGE 3...Pattern turns cooler early next week. It's been said all good things must come to an end, and for those who have been enjoying this early taste of summer, a brief pattern change will bring a return to much cooler weather early next week. A strong cold front crosses southern New England Sun followed by a deep upper trough rotating through region, bringing an anomalously cold airmass back into the region, albeit for a short time. Temperatures aloft drop to as low as -7C to -10C at 850 mb Mon morning, only supporting highs in 40s and 50s Mon. It might not be want you want but high pressure covering much of eastern U.S. eventually shifts offshore by midweek as upper flow becomes more zonal, allowing for a slow warming trend. Highs should get back into 60s by Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update...Moderate confidence. Today and Tonight: Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move east across the region this morning amidst a mix of LIFR to VFR ceilings. VFR to MVFR ceilings possible in any RA/TSRA that moves through with visbys to IFR not ruled out in any heavier showers/storms. The main line pushing through should exit the region in the next 2 hours or so. Another line of showers following it will progress through over the next few hours as well. For the day today, improvement to VFR expected for most terminals, aside from western MA and central CT. Some may remain MVFR through much of the day, but periods of more scattered ceilings may give way to VFR midday in any areas where persistent MVFR is possible. SW winds today with E/NE winds to start closer to the coast. More scattered showers and storms possible again tonight. Friday: VFR with periods MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds shifting from the W/NW to NE as the day goes on. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Though MVFR possible though most of today, periods of VFR possible if ceilings end up more SCT than BKN. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. Backdoor front meandering over southern New England through Fri will maintain light winds and calm seas, though there will be wind shifts from SW to NE from time to time on eastern MA waters along with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Passage of stronger cold Front Sun should bring SCA conditions to at least outer waters Sun into Mon. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Today's record highs (April 15): Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWD AVIATION...KJC/Hrencecin/JWD MARINE...JWD CLIMATE...  998 FXUS62 KRAH 160539 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 800 PM Wednesday... * Increased Fire Danger criteria (within 5 mph wind and 5% RH of critical thresholds) will likely be met for all of cntl NC on Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 PM Wednesday... 1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend. The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. As such, fuels have been anomalously dry for some time. Deep mixing on Thursday will promote a bit gustier sfc flow upwards of 20 kts or so in the afternoon. PWAT will remain below an inch, and given deep mixing, expect afternoon relative humidity to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. While the combined expected min RH and max gusts will be sub IFD criteria, the aforementioned fire risk due to anomalously dry fuels has prompted a request for another IFD for our entire CWA on Thursday (to be issued by the evening shift). A few CAMs are hinting at late night isolated showers possibly reaching the western/central Piedmont. However, limited moisture would only allow for trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of rain, if any at all. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty low. As such, fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend (isolated lightning on Sunday would be concerning) into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from now through Saturday, other than a brief mainly dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm SW flow to central NC. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and with plenty of sunshine, forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are expected from Thursday through Saturday, which is around 15-20 degrees above normal. Friday may be slightly cooler, particularly across the north where forecast highs are in the mid-to-upper-80s. This will depend on the degree of cloudiness and very light precipitation chances from the passage of a shortwave trough, which looks to have a surface reflection that briefly turns the low-level flow more WNW. Can't rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which based on low-level thicknesses looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still, several days in a row of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across central NC, which could produce some isolated to scattered showers from Saturday night into Sunday. While there is still a lot of uncertainty on timing of the frontal passage, the latest GFS and ECMWF and most of their ensembles have sped up, bringing it through in the morning which would give very little time for surface heating and instability to occur. This combined with the best forcing and moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts look light, with ensemble means less than two tenths of an inch. So expect very little if any relief from the drought. It will turn significantly cooler early next week with highs in the mid-60s to 70 on Monday and lower-to-mid-70s on Tuesday. Sunday and Monday nights will be chilly with lows mostly in the upper-30s to lower-40s. Isolated mid-30s are on the table according to statistical guidance, particularly on Monday night which looks to have the best radiational cooling potential. So will need to watch for the threat of patchy frost. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 135 AM Thursday... VFR conditions will continue through 12z/Friday. It will be breezy between late morning through the afternoon today from the SW at 15- 25 knots. Winds will be mostly 10 knots or less during the overnight through mid-morning hours. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through Monday. However, there is a chance of some light rain behind a cold front Sunday. There is a small chance of MVFR cigs Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April: KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006 April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KRDU: 64/1993 April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  021 FXUS62 KMHX 160542 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 142 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nothing of note. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near record temperatures possible each afternoon through Saturday. 2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday. 3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today through Saturday thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Friday may be a touch cooler with more widespread cloudiness around as an upper level shortwave moves through the region. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in at least 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way. The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer. Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Modest southwesterly winds, gusty at times, are expected to persist over the next 24 hrs as ENC remains in a stagnant weather pattern. Conditions over the next 24 hrs are expected to be very similar to conditions over the past 24 hrs. The seabreeze on Thursday is expected to develop around 18z, and progress inland to OAJ and EWN by 19-21z with a wind shift from SW to S. The seabreeze looks like it won't be as noticeable further inland from ISO to PGV. VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hrs. However, some guidance suggests the potential for reduced VIS and/or low stratus development overnight and again Thursday night. For now, this appears unlikely, and the TAFs reflect this expectation. Outlook: It's now looking like a weak cold front or surface trough will reach ENC on Friday with an increase in cloudcover and perhaps a few SHRA and TSRA. The latest guidance suggests the greatest TSRA risk (15-20%) will be focused from KPGV east through KFFA. Elsewhere, the risk is lower (around 5-10%). Gusty winds could accompany any SHRA or TSRA that develops on Friday. The next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions is then expected on Sunday as a cold front moves through. Once again, a period of gusty winds is expected in addition to a risk of TSRA (15-25% chance). && .MARINE... Marginal Small Craft conditions will linger across the nearshore waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout as the thermal and pressure gradient fluctuate through tomorrow. Elsewhere, 25 kt wind gusts will be less frequent but still possible, especially during the peak of the thermal gradient late this afternoon through this evening. Winds will continue out of the SW today at 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts through tomorrow morning. Thereafter, a weak front entering the region will relax the pressure gradient, and winds will come down to SW/S at 5-15 kts through tomorrow night. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft through tomorrow night, but could occasionally reach 6 feet, especially over the Gulf Stream. Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday. As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night/early Monday with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in response, peaking early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156. && $$ DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC AVIATION...RM MARINE...SGK  251 FXUS66 KOTX 160543 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1043 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow showers in Idaho and far eastern reaches of Washington Thursday. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday. - Increasing rain chances early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Rain and snow showers will continue in Idaho and far eastern Washington Thursday. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the weekend. Next round of showers expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: The region is on the backside of an exiting cold front. Drier air is moving into the region dropping precipitable water values to under a quarter of an inch or 50-60 percent of normal. The earlier afternoon, evening convection will decrease as the atmosphere stabilizes due to ridge pattern building in the region. Ensembles have shower activity continuing over the Northeast WA and North ID through Thursday. It is due to wrap around moisture from the exiting Low. Rain and rain/snow mix are possible with up to 30 percent chance of half an inch of snow. Impacts will be minimal as surface temperatures will limit to no accumulations. Winds will weaken overnight before increasing on Thursday. Wind gusts will be in the teens overnight and 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Thursday highs will be in the upper 40s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday: Ridging pattern will bring a dry, warming trend for the period. Highs will climb back into the 60s and low 70s. Any precip chances are limited to the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle along the Montana Border. Amounts are less than a hundredth of an inch. Morning temps will still be in the 30s. Sunday through Wednesday: Weather pattern will change as a Gulf of Alaska Low is expected to move into the region. It is still tracking to move south along the Pacific Coast and into Northern California. The track keeps the regions warm, dry trend through Monday. Shower chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the Lows moisture finally moves into the Inland Northwest. A few ensemble members have the track moving the Low into Oregon and bringing the showers earlier. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Low pressure spinning over the region will continue to bring spotty showers to North Idaho and at times, far eastern WA through Thursday. A more organized band of showers will track north to south 14-21Z falling as snow for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, mix for KPUW, and rain for KLWS due to the later timing. Prior to the arrival of this wave, there is a 60% chance for MVFR cigs to develop around KCOE and KPUW. Winds will remain breezy on Thursday with gusts around 25kts. The system will begin to exit Thursday night with clearing skies, decreasing winds, and chilly temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence on the early morning MVFR stratus. Moderate to high confidence for an organized band of showers but low if this will drive vis down below 5SM. High confidence for VFR conditions to return Thursday evening and night though fog is possible in the valleys of NE WA and N ID Thursday night. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 29 51 30 54 32 61 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 29 47 29 52 30 59 / 30 50 10 0 0 0 Pullman 28 45 29 51 32 59 / 30 40 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 33 50 34 56 33 64 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 27 53 26 57 28 62 / 50 30 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 29 45 28 50 29 57 / 60 70 20 20 0 0 Kellogg 27 41 28 47 29 56 / 50 80 30 30 0 0 Moses Lake 28 58 31 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 32 55 35 59 40 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 31 58 32 61 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  211 FXAK67 PAJK 160544 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 944 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z set of TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 417 PM AKDT Wed Apr 15... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to move into the panhandle Wednesday evening before a band of precipitation moves into the northern and eventually central panhandle overnight - A more organized frontal band will follow into the panhandle Thursday afternoon, continuing precipitation through Friday - Showers/frontal bands continue to impact the panhandle through the weekend SHORT TERM... The forecast remains largely on track as mid-level clouds begin to push into the outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. This is preceding a band of precipitation associated with a shortwave trough that is expected to move from the west into the northern outer coast of the panhandle Wednesday evening. This band will continue to push into the northern and eventually parts of the central panhandle overnight, bringing light rainfall with short periods of snow for Yakutat and a rain/snow mix for Haines and Skagway. Behind this band, onshore flow will allow for developing showers in the gulf to push inland, continuing precipitation into Thursday morning. By early Thursday afternoon, a more organized frontal band is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast and steadily push eastward into the northern panhandle and eventually the central panhandle by Thursday evening. The front is expected to reach the southern panhandle overnight into early Friday morning, with onshore flow pushing showers into the panhandle behind the front and continuing precipitation through Friday. The initial front on Thursday will bring around half an inch of rain to the northern panhandle and less than a quarter of an inch of rain to the central panhandle, though Yakutat may see closer to an inch of rain into Friday. With showers continuing Friday, the northern panhandle is expected to see anywhere between a half an inch to an inch of rain, with the southern panhandle seeing closer to a quarter to a half an inch. Gusty winds are expected with the initial frontal bands, as well as with heavier showers behind them. Due to the relatively more northern track of this front, daytime high temperatures may not reach as high as they have been through the week, sitting around the mid 40s across the panhandle and only dropping to the mid 30s overnight into Friday. LONG TERM... Continuing from the short term discussion, moist onshore flow will persist through Friday with minimal breaks in the cloud deck for the northern panhandle as moisture funnels straight into the northern coast. Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast- moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. Updates to the details of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer. AVIATION...A disturbance on the north side of an area of high pressure is impacting southeast Alaska tonight and into the day Thursday. Conditions will steadily drop to MVFR and potentially IFR across northern portions of the Panhandle with showers. Places such as Petersburg, Wrangell, and Klawock could see some reduced visibilities tonight, but that should dissipate with daytime heating. During the day Thursday, some showery activity could make its way to the southern Alaska panhandle, and lead to some visibility impacts. MARINE... Outer Coastal Waters: Our northwesterly flow down the east side of the broad central Gulf of Alaska high pressure ridge has weakened a bit today, even going southwesterly for most of the eastern Gulf, as the ridge starts to essentially break down. By Thursday, we see weak low pressure forming at the top of the weakening ridge just south of Anchorage, moving slowly east across the northern Gulf through Thursday. We keep that light to moderate west to southwesterly flow over the eastern Gulf going tonight into Thursday, except for the northern Gulf zones from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling where we have posted Small Craft Advisories for Thursday when we see a tighter pressure gradient on the north side of the low center, with winds increasing to 25 kt and a small fetch area generating 8 ft seas. Inner Channels: For today, we note an increased southerly flow down Lynn Canal to Portland Island where winds have picked up to 20 kt. We also see an uptick of southerly winds down parts of Stephens Passage and coming off the eastern Gulf of Alaska in Cross Sound. As we progress through the evening, these areas of increased winds will drop off a bit and we will see a light southeasterly to easterly flow through morning, then another uptick in southerly winds tomorrow. To the south, a generally light southerly to easterly flow expected tonight into Thursday before we do see an uptick in east to southeasterly winds around 15 kt late Thursday through late week. Overall, marine impacts over the inside waters remain benign to minor. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZTK LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...Musall MARINE...NM/JG Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  597 FXUS61 KBGM 160545 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 145 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Another risk of severe thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon through early evening, though confidence has increased that the threat will be primarily north of the Twin Tiers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this coming afternoon into evening, though this time especially north of the Twin Tiers. Strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain are the primary threats. 2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend with a a round of rain and perhaps thunder Saturday evening followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... For the third consecutive day we will have a risk for severe thunderstorms, though this time the focus will be especially north of the Twin Tiers. A subtle shallow boundary left behind by the convection we just had in the evening, will drift right back north during the day to allow well above normal temperatures to be realized again with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will be into the lower 60s at most locations, so it will definitely feel ahead of pace compared to the calendar. Unlike the prior couple of days, there will be more forcing via an incoming upper wave and eventual frontal passage. Modest height falls will occur aloft, as southwesterly warm air advection occurs below. A rather robust and even top-heavy Convective Available Potential Energy profile should set up for the Finger Lakes to Central New York pointing to not just damaging gusts but also potential for large hail; farther south there will be more uncertainty because of convective inhibition/thermal capping holding on even late in the day. The SPC Convective Outlook continues to highlight a good portion of Central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. As mentioned the primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled out within storm-scale boundary interactions, and the Mohawk Valley sometimes can cause its own topographical influences. However, shear even for Central New York will be mainly unidirectional since the boundary will lift so far north this afternoon. It was a good thing that most rainfall during the event that just concluded was mostly in the central to southern part of the area, because the northern third remains sensitive. That said, for the coming afternoon-evening, we will still have to keep an eye on potential for isolated localized flooding where it is the most sensitive. Speed of cells though will probably mostly mitigate the threat, and thus is more of a secondary risk. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures continue up to Saturday, but a rainy cold front in the evening will herald an abrupt pattern flip to much cooler weather for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will bump down some on Friday in the wake of the prior batch of thunderstorms, yet still above normal with highs of mid 60s to mid 70s. There could still be a few lingering showers early Friday, otherwise passing high pressure will provide for window of dry weather through at least midday Saturday. An upper trough will dig into the Western Great Lakes Saturday, with deep southwest flow boosting temperatures well into the 70s across the area. This will occur ahead of a very well-marked front trailing from strong Canadian low pressure. A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night. Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, yet under strong cold air advection with gusty winds and scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest; 20s areawide. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A batch of showers and thunderstorms is now developing across the NY Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. These showers and storms will move east through the evening hours, with another round back near Buffalo NY/Erie PA poised to move through by late evening. The highest probabilities to see restrictions from these showers and storms will be at ELM, ITH and BGM...but eventually it looks to spread north toward SYR and RME as well. Restrictions should be mainly MVFR, but occasional IFR restrictions are also possible in thunderstorms and brief heavy rain (especially at ITH and BGM). As these thunderstorms push through expect brief periods of gusty and erratic wind gusts and even some localized hail will be possible. Following these showers and thunderstorms, lingering low ceilings and patchy fog/mist will likely keep restrictions around at least until 06Z, before a gradual return to VFR. However, RME will see lingering MVFR to IFR CIGs through 13-16z Thursday morning as the warm front lifts back north. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions areawide through Thursday afternoon. Outlook: Thursday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers. Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDP AVIATION...BJG/MJM  555 FXUS62 KMLB 160546 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Warming trend will bring near record highs in the low 90s across the interior Friday and into the weekend. - Remaining mostly dry through the weekend, then a small chance of showers returns early next week as a weak front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday. - A period of windy onshore flow Monday into Tuesday behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Thu-Sun...Low level ridge axis remains north of the area through Thursday and then model guidance shows it settling southward across the area late week and south FL by Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer in response to this ridge axis. Meanwhile, ridge axis aloft will remain across the area, resulting in a warming trend through the period and overall dry conditions. Onshore winds and inland moving sea breeze will continue to keep warmest max temperatures across the interior each day. Highs will remain closer to normal near 80/low 80s at the coast Thursday, and be warmer than normal inland, in the mid to upper 80s. As temperatures continue to climb late week and into the weekend, max temps will become above normal area-wide, ranging from the mid 80s at the coast and climbing into the low 90s across the interior. For inland sites, these highs will be nearing record values. The greatest potential for any tied or broken daily records still looks to be at Leesburg, especially Saturday (see record highs below). Mon-Wed...A weakening front pushes through late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a small chance of showers and a noticeable cool down. Equally as noticeable will be the strong/gusty onshore (NE) winds that develop behind the front. Sustained 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast to overspread the area from north to south late Sun night and Mon, gradually decreasing Tue. Moisture return and forcing ahead of/along the front are looking pretty meager by the time the boundary reaches Florida. ECM and GFS both depict a mostly quiet frontal passage, with the best chances for showers at 20-30% in afternoons across the central (Monday) and southern (Monday through Wednesday) counties where daytime heating destabilizes residual moisture from the frontal boundary. Temperatures drop back to more seasonal norms behind the front with even slightly below normal high temps on Tue. Then warming back up fairly quickly beginning Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Ridge axis of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic currently north of the area gradually drops south into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters by Friday. The high retreats south and east over the weekend ahead of an approaching cool front which is forecast to push through late Sunday into early Monday. Wind flow gradually veers more southeast and weakens the next couple days as the ridge axis settles over the area. With light synoptic/ background SSW-WSW flow Friday through the weekend, winds shift onshore (SE-ESE) each afternoon/eve associated with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds behind the sea breeze will be 8-12 knots. Seas 3-4 FT tonight/Thursday and 2-3 FT Friday through the weekend. Boating conditions deteriorate Sunday night behind the front with Small Craft Advisories likely for NE winds 20-25 knots spreading across the waters and seas rapidly building 7-9 FT early Mon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Mainly VFR to continue. A very low chance of BR/MIFG remains for northern sites (ISM northward) this morning but is too low confidence to include in the TAF. Dry conditions with SCT- BKN030-040 along the coast (esp. TIX/MLB southward). ESE winds 7-11 kt resume after 15z with an occasional gust 15-18 kt as the sea breeze forms. Winds decrease again to 10 kt or less after 02z Fri. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Deep layer high pressure - at the surface and aloft - will maintain dry conditions along with a warming trend into the weekend. Prevailing daytime winds will be east to southeast as the low level ridge axis settles across Central Florida by Friday. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph coast. Nighttime winds will become light and variable. No min RH concerns along the coast but inland min RHs will fall to 30-35% Thu from Orlando north and west, expanding to include more of the interior on Friday. Given the relatively light winds, Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Afternoon dispersion values Fair to Generally Good Thursday and Friday, but pockets of Poor dispersion may exist over portions of Lake county. Warming trend will bring above normal highs into the lower 90s interior Friday through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 87 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 86 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Schaper  275 FXUS64 KLZK 160546 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon -Rain chances become more widespread Wed evening into early Thurs morning. -Well above normal temps Friday -Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north. Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR. The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR. Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri. Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun. Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week. By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Expect MVFR flight category at the western, central, and southern terminals across Arkansas as CIGS lower with as a mixture of SHRA with occasional TSRA moves across Arkansas to begin the forecast period through midday on Thursday. Expect a return of all sites to VFR flight category by Thursday afternoon as the activity diminishes and moves east of Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 64 87 60 / 80 20 20 40 Camden AR 84 64 88 64 / 40 10 0 10 Harrison AR 81 63 84 51 / 50 10 30 70 Hot Springs AR 82 63 86 61 / 50 20 10 30 Little Rock AR 83 65 88 64 / 70 20 10 20 Monticello AR 85 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 82 64 85 59 / 40 20 10 40 Mountain Home AR 82 63 85 53 / 60 10 30 60 Newport AR 82 65 87 62 / 80 20 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 83 64 89 64 / 60 10 0 20 Russellville AR 82 64 86 59 / 50 20 10 40 Searcy AR 82 62 88 61 / 80 20 10 30 Stuttgart AR 82 65 87 65 / 80 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74  925 FXUS61 KBGM 160549 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Another risk of severe thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon through early evening, though confidence has increased that the threat will be primarily north of the Twin Tiers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this coming afternoon into evening, though this time especially north of the Twin Tiers. Strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain are the primary threats. 2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend with a a round of rain and perhaps thunder Saturday evening followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... For the third consecutive day we will have a risk for severe thunderstorms, though this time the focus will be especially north of the Twin Tiers. A subtle shallow boundary left behind by the convection we just had in the evening, will drift right back north during the day to allow well above normal temperatures to be realized again with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will be into the lower 60s at most locations, so it will definitely feel ahead of pace compared to the calendar. Unlike the prior couple of days, there will be more forcing via an incoming upper wave and eventual frontal passage. Modest height falls will occur aloft, as southwesterly warm air advection occurs below. A rather robust and even top-heavy Convective Available Potential Energy profile should set up for the Finger Lakes to Central New York pointing to not just damaging gusts but also potential for large hail; farther south there will be more uncertainty because of convective inhibition/thermal capping holding on even late in the day. The SPC Convective Outlook continues to highlight a good portion of Central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. As mentioned the primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled out within storm-scale boundary interactions, and the Mohawk Valley sometimes can cause its own topographical influences. However, shear even for Central New York will be mainly unidirectional since the boundary will lift so far north this afternoon. It was a good thing that most rainfall during the event that just concluded was mostly in the central to southern part of the area, because the northern third remains sensitive. That said, for the coming afternoon-evening, we will still have to keep an eye on potential for isolated localized flooding where it is the most sensitive. Speed of cells though will probably mostly mitigate the threat, and thus is more of a secondary risk. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures continue up to Saturday, but a rainy cold front in the evening will herald an abrupt pattern flip to much cooler weather for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will bump down some on Friday in the wake of the prior batch of thunderstorms, yet still above normal with highs of mid 60s to mid 70s. There could still be a few lingering showers early Friday, otherwise passing high pressure will provide for window of dry weather through at least midday Saturday. An upper trough will dig into the Western Great Lakes Saturday, with deep southwest flow boosting temperatures well into the 70s across the area. This will occur ahead of a very well-marked front trailing from strong Canadian low pressure. A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night. Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, yet under strong cold air advection with gusty winds and scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest; 20s areawide. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Now that the storms and rain have moved out of the area, lingering low ceilings and patchy fog/mist will be observed at the majority of terminals, but expected to stay VFR, with exception to RME and SYR. Low clouds through 12z from a weak quasi-stationary boundary could drop restrictions to MVFR. Confidence is moderate, but was included in the 06Z TAF package. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions areawide through Thursday afternoon, before showers and storms are expected in the evening hours. Outlook: Thursday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers. Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDP AVIATION...KL  913 FXUS63 KIND 160550 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 150 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible after midnight - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Surface analysis this evening shows a trough in place from WI to OK. GOES19 Shows convection along and near this trough. Moderate southwest flow was in place across Indiana ahead of this feature. Aloft, vapor shows a plume of moisture streaming into the plains and Ohio Valley. These features were coming together to generate light rain showers across Indiana. CAPE across central Indiana has become rather limited per SPC mesoanalysis pages and recent radar returns also reflect that as rain intensity across central Indiana the past few hours has diminished. Looking farther west, stronger convection was found over MO and IA. CAMs continue to struggle with the timing and evolution of these waves beyond a few hours out. Nonetheless, the convection upstream is still projected to push eastward toward Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings also trend toward some deep saturation overnight as these feature pass. Due to less favorable instability across our area, stronger storms are not expected. Caveat remains a 40knt LLJ that will be present overnight. Thus will use relative low pops through about 07Z, mainly across the western area, and then higher pops thereafter as the main forcing from the west looks to arrive. Given your clouds, rain and good mixing on southerly winds, lows in the middle 60s are expected. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a weak MCV moving across northern Indiana and a broader surface low currently across Iowa. This system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet. As the LLJ ramps up this evening into tonight, thunderstorms are expected with the potential for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Through Tonight. The latest water vapor imagery and regional radar mosaics highlight an MCV currently moving through northern Indiana. This feature is expected to remain north of the forecast area with a dissipating boundary closer to the I-70 corridor. Recent high-resolution model guidance keeps the convection this afternoon north of the forecast area associated with the MCV with additional development across Missouri and western Illinois towards 18-20Z as skies gradually clear and instability increases. Diabatic heating is already pushing temperatures into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. This environment should yield MLCAPE values of 1200 to 1800 J/kg by peak heating. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts will be sufficient for organized multicellular structures if convection can hold together as it moves further into Indiana after 00Z. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. High DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates will support efficient downward momentum transfer in collapsing cores. A secondary round of convection is likely as the LLJ cranks up to 40-50 kts after 06z. This will sustain elevated convection through the overnight hours, though the severe threat should gradually wane as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset. Thursday through Friday Night. The aforementioned MCV is forecast to exit to the east by late this evening, leaving behind a trailing surface trough. While scattered showers remain possible on Thursday, the overall trend will be toward drying as subsidence increases across the region. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the low to mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday. GEFS and EPS output shows high confidence in a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies, and ensembles are in good agreement on a strong cold front crossing Indiana during peak heating. Given the robust dynamics associated with this system, another round of severe weather is possible, although timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions still need to be resolved. On the backside of the front, a 1030mb surface high will slide south from Central Canada. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night and Monday night are currently projected to be in the low to mid 30s. Those with sensitive vegetation should prepare for potential frost or freeze headlines as the seasonably cold air settles in. The EPS members suggest a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to southwesterly flow and more tranquil conditions to start the mid- week period. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. - Low chances for TSRA 06-09z, more likely around KHUF - MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs during any TSRA - Wind shift to 250-280 deg today with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions remain across the TAF sites this evening even as an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms cross the IN/IL border. Upstream observations indicate there is enough near surface dry air to keep cloud bases above 5000ft agl during the rainfall. Still a small chance at MVFR cigs under a heavier shower or storm early this morning, however not mentioning it in the TAFs as the probability is very low and there is low confidence in exactly when it may occur. Best chance for reduced vsby from rain will be at KHUF and KLAF with a lesser threat at KIND and KBMG as this entire complex of showers and storms will rapidly weaken with eastward progression. Keeping TSRA chances confined to KHUF as instability is rapidly waning as well, keeping the threat for thunder along the IL/IN border. Will update the TAFs as needed if the TSRA threat looks to persist further east this morning. Fairly light winds early this morning as a rather stable boundary layer is preventing stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. Upstream obs in Illinois indicate that KLAF may see a few higher gusts to 20 kts as this area of rain moves through 06z-11z. Gusty winds possible under any heavier shower at all sites early this morning but these should be isolated. Winds shift from SSW to W during the day today with gusts of 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours as winds mix down to the surface. Expect winds to significantly diminish toward and after sunset tonight become light and variable out of the WNW to N. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...White  060 FXUS63 KMPX 160550 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm Thursday, with potential for critical fire weather conditions across western MN on Thursday afternoon. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 late Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Today through Thursday: Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed mostly sunny skies across the region, with light surface winds. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across. Radar showed a few elevated returns across southern Minnesota, and there is a small chance (20 percent) for rain this afternoon and evening. However, the majority of the rain and storms will stay well to the south across I-90. On Thursday, expect another day of warm temperatures as a low pressure system approaches from the west and brings an increase in southerly winds. This will lead to low humidity and breezy conditions across western Minnesota, so we did issue a Fire Weather watch from 11am to 7pm. Friday through Saturday: Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A strong cold front will move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, expect temperatures in the 70s and southwest winds, along with a chance for thunderstorms. A few of these storms should be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The storms should start as discrete cells, with hail as the primary threat, and then quickly grow upscale into a line with wind becoming the primary threat. The risk for tornadoes is a distant third. These storms will develop around the lunch hour near I-35, and then move eastward rather quickly into Wisconsin. Behind the front, expect breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph, and falling temperatures. As the overall system organizes, precipitation will wrap around from the northwest, with rain changing over to snow. As of now, this looks to be closer to the international border, but could have some light rain with a few snow flakes on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday through Tuesday: Dry conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday will remain cool with surface high pressure overhead, and temperatures near 50. On Monday the high will depart to the east, and southerly winds will increase bringing warmer temperatures with highs the 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 I have opted to maintain a TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm (LIFR). Fog should develop in the valley after the mid-level cloud deck moves out overnight. Fog will burn off quickly by mid-morning. Elsewhere, VFR is expected is expected the entire period. Southerly winds persist across western MN tonight while they'll be light and variable at the other terminals in C/E MN and W WI. Southerly winds will increase in speed by mid-morning at all sites. Gusts will near 30 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours. Gusts will reach 25 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon. KMSP... No Additional Concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...BPH  365 FXUS64 KMRX 160551 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 151 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a Fire Danger Statement, and will reevaluate the need for that tomorrow morning after coordination with forestry. The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quarter inch in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability (~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 KMRX VAD Wind Profile shows winds near 2kft approaching 30kts once again this morning. Have included a period of LLWS for TYS and TRI. KHTX data is slightly less so LLWS has been left out of KCHA at this time. Another round of breezy southwest winds this afternoon, though, this afternoon will favor gusts at all three sites. Late tomorrow afternoon & evening some scattered showers will move across the area, especially the north. Have included some VCSH at TYS/TRI, with a prob30 including some TSRA at TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 90 63 / 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 85 61 / 20 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 86 60 / 30 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 56 / 10 60 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KRS  243 FXUS63 KABR 160551 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures today about 15 to 30 degrees above normal. Winds shifting from south to southwest at 25 to 35 mph and afternoon humidity down to 15 to 30%. Red Flag warning in effect for most of the area late morning through late afternoon. High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger as well. - A cold front will move through late today, with a wind shift to north or northwest and increase to 35 to 40 mph. Temperatures dropping some 40 to 50 degrees off daytime highs. - Little moisture associated with this system. About a 50/50 chance for 0.25" in north central South Dakota, with maybe just a few hundredths in northeast South Dakota. - Cool dry pattern for the weekend. Milder but still dry for the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Surface dewpoints are currently in the 30s with a few upper 20s smattered across the central South Dakota. In the east, its closer to widespread mid/upper 30s. These values won't improve with daytime heating and the extremely favorable mixing environment today. NBM temperatures are still around the 10th percentile, and 3 to 7F below the 50th percentile. Bumped up temperatures a few degrees higher than the NBM because of the southwest component however the forecast highs are still down around the 25th percentile in comparison. NAM BUFKIT profiles continue to indicate mid level instability with inverted V soundings, above the 0C level. Again, this COULD mean we might see some elevated dry convection related erratic winds. This can sometimes show up in CAM wind fields which, not to be taken literally at the times and locations, but is merely added proof that convective winds are possible. FV3/ARW NAMNest/DNG all show some random blips of erraticness in the wind fields from 23 to 02Z. CAMS do have some low dBZ that may represent this as well. At the end of March, we also had an area significantly impacted by blowing dust. Granted, overall winds today will fall short of that event, however we do have a localized area that tends to get higher winds (similar to a Sisseton hills downslope) off a bend in the Missouri Coteau near Ree Heights. While we did see around an inch of moisture in early April, its been a weak with mild temperatures since. Dust model is giving some indication that there could be issues. Added mention of dust in the favored portion of central South Dakota. Winds on the backside of the cold front still topping out in NAM/GFS BUFKIT mixed tool around low/mid 30kt range. Overall chances for moisture continue to shift north and west. NBM probability of 0.25 inches is a little less than 50/50 over north central South Dakota, and 25% for areas west of Aberdeen/Pierre. Not even a 50/50 chance of measuring at Watertown. Needless to say this system doesn't look to bring appreciable moisture to the region, outside some local relief. Cool snap last through the weekend, with another surge of mild air for the start of next week. With the departing trough and approaching upper low parking off the California coast, that creates a broad ridge over the Rockies and a northwest flow regime for us. Thats typically a low confidence regime for our region especially in the realm of days 5-6-7 especially since this time of year clipper systems usually result in less moisture and dramatic changes in temperatures. Case in point the NBM 25th 75th percentile range in high temperatures is 6-10 degrees Monday, 8-13 degrees Tuesday and 10 to 14F for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will dominate for much of the period. Winds will be the main concern, increasing with gusts of 20-30kts during much of the daytime hours today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ005>008-010-011- 016>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  581 FXUS65 KBOU 160552 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1152 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains Thursday afternoon. - Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and the potential for snow for most locations. - Hard freeze Friday night and into Saturday morning with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees for much of the plains on Thursday. Winds tomorrow will turn more to the south/southwest, with gusts around 20 to 35 mph. Breezy winds combined with RHs in the single digits to low teens across the plains will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for tomorrow afternoon for the southern Foothills, Palmer Divide, and areas generally east of the Urban Corridor and south of US 34. A strong cold front will move through late Thursday through early Friday. Winds behind the front will be strong from the north, with gusts around 35 to 50mph overnight. Much colder temperatures and the potential for some snow accumulations will follow behind the front. Snow chances will increase for the mountains overnight Thursday into Friday, with snow chances spilling into the plains early Friday into Friday afternoon as an upper level trough moves into the area. We're a little concerned about the potential for anticyclonic upslope and convergence against the southern Foothills and Palmer Divide. This combined with strong 700mb frontogenesis in these areas for the late morning and early afternoon could lead to heavier snowfall than currently forecast. We increased snowfall amounts in these areas to account for this potential, but amounts may need to be adjusted up further if banding potential becomes more prominent. Most likely snowfall totals across the urban corridor, northern I-25 corridor, and east is a trace to around 2 inches of snow. The most likely amounts in the Foothills and Palmer Divide area are more in the 1 to 4 inch range, however there is a low chance (~10%) that amounts could approach around 8 inches in portions of this area. The mountains are looking at most likely accumulations around 2 to 8 inches. With how warm the road temperatures will be to start this event in the Foothills and plains (and the more borderline freezing temperatures during the afternoon), accumulations on roadways should be limited. Snow chances will begin to taper off in the evening as the upper level trough moves through and subsidence builds in behind it. At the surface winds will begin to weaken and temperatures are forecast to drop significantly overnight. Minimum temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 20s across the plains Saturday morning, with colder temperatures in the mountains and across the Palmer. This will lead to a hard freeze, potentially impacting sprinkler systems and plants which have started to bud. A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of the plains for Saturday morning. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the area between the exiting trough and a strong upper low over the West Coast. A warming trend will begin Saturday, with highs increasing into the lower 80s for portions of the plains by Tuesday afternoon. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry through this period. Things start to get a bit more uncertain on Wednesday as models try to figure out how that upper low will move into the central U.S., but a majority of the ensemble members keep the plains dry and give a low chance of precip for the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1151 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR will persist through most of this period. Strong cold front arrives Friday evening. The main concern in the shorter term will be winds. We'll start this period with the typical S-SW winds at the TAF sites, continuing through at least 15Z. Then, as diurnal heating and mixing occurs, we'll start to see uncertainty enter the forecast. In this southwest flow pattern, it's not unusual to see a shear zone develop, and today could be the same especially with expected increase in high level clouds. That typically leads to differential heating and corresponding development of a shear zone off the Palmer Divide. There are some hints of this in the HRRR, keeping a small area of light/VRB winds near or just north of KDEN and KBJC through the morning, and that could potentially late into mid to late afternoon (not depicted by models) depending on development and amount of opaque cloud cover. KAPA will have the highest odds (80%) of getting properly mixed and staying south of the shear zone, and thus we'll start winds increasing there by 15Z with a further well mixed G24-28kt scenario 20Z-02Z. For KDEN, we think a more southerly component is most likely through 19Z, but a 20-30% chance of light E or NE. After that, we'll see higher chances of a mixed SW flow wind pushing through KDEN but the lee troughing is rather limited and thus it might take as late as 22-24Z before those stronger W-SW winds with gusts near 25 kts develop. The same can be said for KBJC. Winds should start to relax again by 01Z-02Z with loss of daytime heating. Then, a strong cold front will bring gusty north winds (30-40 kts possible at KDEN), most likely 05-07Z Friday. Low clouds could start to develop within a few hours of that but most likely holding off til closer to 12Z Friday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ214-216- 241-245>247-249. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...20  945 FXUS66 KPQR 160553 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1052 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated aviation discussion and hazards. .SYNOPSIS...Post-frontal rain and mountain snow showers continue but will decrease coverage through Thursday night. Any heavier shower may produce small hail, while there is also a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Accumulating snow continues above 2500 feet and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect in the Cascades through tonight. The cooler airmass will also favor frost/freeze conditions tonight and possibly Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...The potent cold front which crossed the region last night through this morning has exited the region to the south and east. Behind the front, scattered to numerous rain and mountain snow showers will linger into Thursday as a closed upper-level low passes overhead. With the cold core low aloft, any surface heating during sun breaks between showers will easily destabilize the column, generating perhaps 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE. When combined with low freezing levels around 2500 ft, even a heavy shower could result in small hail reaching the surface. There is additionally a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, although limited instability will cap overall thunderstorm intensity. These chances will decrease after sunset, but may linger later into the evening as the coldest air within the upper low shifts overhead. Meanwhile in the Cascades above 2500 ft, snow showers will continue to produce accumulating snowfall. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect until 5 AM Thursday as another 9-12 inches of snow may fall, resulting in storm total accumulations of 1-2 feet at and above pass level. As the upper low exits eastward and heights begin to rise aloft, rain showers will tend to dwindle in coverage tonight through Thursday and the cooler air mass will see temperatures fall to near-freezing across portions of the region. Despite morning low temperatures of 32-36 degrees across the lower elevations of NW Oregon and SW Washington, the combination of partly cloudy skies and persistent light winds tonight may inhibit widespread frost formation. Frost Advisories nonetheless remain in effect from 1-9 AM Thursday west of the Cascades with the exception of the immediate coast, Portland/Vancouver metro, and Columbia Gorge where temperatures will remain relatively warmer. East of the Cascade crest in the Upper Hood River Valley, temperatures will more likely fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, and a Freeze Warning has therefore been issued for 1-9 AM Thursday. Agricultural interests and those with sensitive outdoor plants should plan to take protective action to prevent plant damage. Conditions will be even more supportive of radiational cooling on Thursday night, however the slowly moderating air mass may counteract that tendency. A Freeze Watch has been issued from 1-9 AM Friday for the areas most likely to see temperatures fall below freezing, namely the Upper Hood River Valley and the Cascade foothills of Marion, Linn, and Lane Counties. As upper-level ridging builds on Friday, drier and warmer weather is expected across the region, although there remains some uncertainty in the progression of yet another upper low over the Northeast Pacific. This low or open trough may move nearer to the region and bring clouds and rain, although confidence is relatively low and rainfall chances only reach 5-10% by late Friday night. -36 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper-level low or open trough tracking from the Gulf of Alaska over the Northeast Pacific will be the driver of sensible weather this weekend and into early next week, and the forecast remains sensitive to its low-confidence evolution. An upper low located nearby will favor cloudy skies and rainfall chances, while a position well to the west would see continued warm and dry weather. If it is located off the northern CA or southern OR coast, the pattern could allow sufficient moisture to move northward on its eastern flank to support convection along the Cascades. -36 && .AVIATION...Showers continue across NW OR and SW WA, producing periods of heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds as well as brief periods of MVFR cigs and/or vis. Showers should mostly dissipate by 10-15z Thu with VFR conditions prevailing after. Winds are mainly westerly along the coast and south to southwesterly at inland terminals, mainly less than 8-10 kts with potential gusts up to 20-25 kts near heavier showers. Temperatures could be cold enough for frost formation over exposed surfaces, especially between 09-16z Thu, though there is significant uncertainty depending on cloud cover and wind speed. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions, falling to MVFR briefly near showers. Stronger showers could produce small hail and gusty winds. Southwest winds less than 8 kts. -03 && .MARINE...Post frontal showers will increase probability for lightning over the waters through around 1700 today. Small Craft Seas persist due to a westerly swell combined with a westerly wind wave. These small craft seas are hovering right around 9-10 ft at 8 seconds. Have extended the advisory through Thursday morning, though will see a steady decline in seas shifting from west to east. In addition, there will be a strong ebb early Thursday morning for the Columbia River Bar. The inner waters will see lowering seas as early as early Thursday morning. Winds will remain westerly through Friday morning, then shift to the north as a high pressure ridge sets up over the waters. This summer time pattern will bring increased winds to PZZ253 in the afternoon. While not quite a low- level jet, we could see a short burst of gusts up to 25 kt. High pressure over the area will maintain more settled conditions through early next week. -27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>110-114>118. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ121-123>125. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ203>205-208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  881 FXUS61 KCLE 160554 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 154 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains largely unchanged. There will be severe weather potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards possible. Additional rounds of severe weather possible Thursday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential across the region continues this afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday. 2) Multiple rounds of precipitation through Thursday night will bring flooding potential to the region. A Flood Watch remains in effect for northwestern Ohio. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Highest potential for frost/freeze will be Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening with additional rounds possible Thursday and Saturday as a boundary wavers through the central Great Lakes through the early weekend. See below for a breakdown for each day: Today: Northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania continues to destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the southwest. As this occurs, MLCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0 C/km. Lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm potential. Additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, that will support organized convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are currently getting started across eastern Indiana and western Ohio early afternoon along a boundary across that area. As this moves eastward more into Ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and intensity. Timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the western portion of the CWA by 2-3PM and traverse across exiting into Pennsylvania by 8-9PM. Another round of thunderstorms are possible late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving through the region. Though, severe potential associated with those should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates. Thursday: Another round of severe weather is possible on Thursday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the continued southwesterly flow. The main threat will be in the evening with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the region. Can't rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best instability. The severe weather potential should begin to diminish around sunset and move out to the east. Saturday: The next round of severe potential will be during the afternoon on Saturday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward through the region Saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the strong low to mid level winds. KEY MESSAGE 2... With plenty of moisture advection across the region through Thursday night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Precipitable water values will be around 1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in thunderstorms. With the potential for showers and thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through Thursday night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north of the area and support the potential for training storms. Generally expecting this to stay north of US Route 30. Through Thursday night, rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end amounts closer to the lake shore. Higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms as well. Latest guidance has trended northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so confidence is lower in this. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures through Saturday evening will continue to be above average. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see southwesterly flow across the region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday sweeping a cold front through that will usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop down to 5-10 degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest of this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations possibly seeing upper 20s. Given the growing season as begun across Ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night with a lower potential for Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday rising to around seasonally average. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The airspace starts with VFR conditions this morning with mid- level clouds across the region. Some isolated rain showers exist with some isentropic lift across Northeast Ohio into NW PA and there could be a brief shower at KYNG or KERI. The main show for today will be an incoming cold front that will allow for another round of showers and storms across the region. Early convection in NW OH should just be rain after dawn at KTOL and KFDY. However, convection should flare up over North Central Ohio and allow for some clusters of thunderstorms to move through the remaining terminals during the afternoon hours. Have some TEMPO groups timed in across the area for the best chance of TS. Behind the front, some wrap around precipitation could allow for rain to persist for the NE OH and NW PA terminals. Clouds will erode from the west during the evening hours. However, ceilings will persist down wind of Lake Erie and may fall to MVFR as winds shift to the west and northwest with the cold air advection. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday with rain continuing Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Lake Erie remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across the lake Thursday night. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through Friday. Ahead of the cold front, winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less. Behind the front, winds veer to W'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 knots. Accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. These winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. During Friday night through Saturday morning, the ridge should exit E'ward and allow a warm front to sweep N'ward across Lake Erie. Mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S'erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots behind the front. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers should occur in open U.S. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. A strong cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie Saturday evening through Saturday night and allow SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to W'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 7 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed, especially east of The Islands. Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie through Sunday night and be accompanied by W'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet should persist. On Monday, a ridge should build from the west and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by sunset Monday evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Jaszka  069 FXUS61 KOKX 160554 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layer high pressure persists over the Eastern Seaboard leading to west-southwest flow at the surface and the continuation of well above normal temperatures. By Friday, the ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an upper trough and attendant cold front. The breakdown of the ridge, shifting wind directions, and cloud cover will reduce high temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to earlier in the week, but will still be above normal until the cold front passes through Friday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Earlier convection over Central New York largely dissipated under strong subsidence with high pressure dominant over the East. A second short wave aloft will pass to the north late tonight, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Connecticut along the thermal trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the region. H5 shortwave passes through the mainly zonal flow across New England on Friday. Associated cloud cover and precipitation chances will mitigate highs somewhat relative to recent warmth, with Friday highs in the upper 70s inland and low 70s across the coastal plain. Thereafter, a more potent mid level closed low dives south out of central Canada Sunday-Monday bringing with it shot of colder air for Sunday- Tuesday of next week. The coldest day of the period looks to be Monday, with highs in the 50s across the board and general warmup thereafter into midweek. NBM spread for high temperatures is on the order of 5 degrees for that period, indicating some consensus in the ensemble guidance. The coldest night looks to be Monday night, with subfreezing temperatures possible across parts of the interior. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A front remains stalled to the north with waves of low pressure passing along it through the TAF period. Mainly VFR. Weakening band of showers pushes through the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT thru 9Z. Dry conditions then prevail through the day, before additional showers possible across the same area (KSWF, KBDR, KGON) after 00Z Friday. Brief restrictions possible. Winds largely light and variable overnight,then S/SW 8-15kt after 12Z with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible. Flow veers NW into Friday AM. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional Thursday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late Thursday Night: VFR. Light WNW/NW winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024 Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023 Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MD/DBR AVIATION...DR MARINE...MD/DBR  646 FXUS63 KSGF 160556 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail. - Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible. - Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show deep southwesterly flow aloft from west Texas into New England. Upper low was located over Nebraska with a trough extending southwest of the low into New Mexico with another low entering the Pacific northwest. Surface front was shifting out of central KS into eastern KS where surface based CAPES were in the 3500-4000 j/kg and no CIN was residing. The morning convection and low clouds have kept some CIN values around 50-100 j/kg in the eastern half of the CWA, but this was slowly eroding and better CAPES were spreading east into the area. 0-6km shear values were around 50kts out of the southwest. Still getting some scattered showers/storms over our eastern CWA with the remnants of this mornings activity. Severe weather this afternoon / tonight: Expecting convection to develop along/ahead of cold front/dryline in eastern KS/OK within the band of higher instability. This activity is expected to initiate slightly west of the CWA with some discrete supercells possible which would include all modes of severe storms. As the upper wave and surface front shift east by late afternoon and early evening, storms may form into clusters or qlcs segments. Damaging wind and an embedded tornado risk will be the main severe weather risks this evening as the qlcs shifts east. While there is some timing differences in the CAMS, the main area of convection should exit the eastern CWA between midnight and 3 am. Thursday/Thursday night: Instability is expected to increase during the afternoon in the wake of any residual precipitation from the today/tonight shortwave. A secondary shortwave is then expected to move through the area during the afternoon and early evening with some of the CAMS generating additional convection over the eastern Ozarks. We are currently in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for this activity, in which the main risk would be with large hail. Anything that develops should move out of the area by the early evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Severe weather chances late Friday into Saturday morning: The upper level wave currently entering the Pacific northwest will continue to track east and into the plains during the day on Friday. A strong upper level jet out of the southwest will be southeast of the trough and move into the area late in the day. strong southerly winds in the lower levels will advect Gulf moisture into the area during the day. With temperatures and moisture increasing in the low levels, instability will increase ahead of an eastward moving dry line/cold front which will begin to push into the area during the late afternoon or early evening. Discrete supercells are expected to develop ahead of a dryline over the central/southern plains and dryline. As the upper wave shifts eastward, the cold front will overtake the dryline and storms should begin to form into a qlcs with damaging wind and spin-up tornado risks becoming the more predominant severe weather risks. The storms and front will continue to track east across the CWA during the night and potentially into Saturday morning before ending. This upper wave will finally end our persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft with drier air moving in behind the wave and surface front for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Deep convection is ending as widespread thunderstorms transition into a more stratiform precip deck with smaller pockets of embedded convection, leaving an isolated threat for VCTS but mostly just rainfall over the next 1-3 hours. Rain continues pushing south and east, remaining in VFR for most of the critical period with brief MVFR conditions developing around 12Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  191 FXUS63 KDDC 160557 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the western majority of the CWA from noon until 9 pm CDT with extreme fire weather conditions. - Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely. - Sub-freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning and potentially Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system. - Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The upper-level low has reached Iowa with a long line of storms ongoing through much of the central CONUS. Another deep low has already developed off the Pacific Northwest as expected. Tuesday will bring much of the area east of the CWA a reprieve before more storms Friday. Outside of Friday's storm chances, fire weather conditions and a weekend overnight freeze headline the forecast. Thursday hosts a warmer forecast than Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Nearly the entire CWA is forecast to see relative humidity minimums below 15%, and as low as 6% in far SW Kansas. Much of the winds will fall short of criteria, but despite falling short by a mph or two, significant fire weather risk is present. SW winds are forecast to be 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30; the strongest winds in far SW Kansas. Due to the serious conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for all counties except Barber, Stafford, and Pratt. Great caution is advised with the conditions, particularly with ignition sources. Into Friday, the system currently deepening over the Pacific Northwest is progged by ensembles to move into the area and bring storm development. Upper-level dynamics, ample shear, conducive lapse rates and CAPE, and a strong forcing with the cold front associated with the system is continuing to look like a very favorable environment for strong severe weather. With that in mind, and as the previous forecast caught onto, will be nearly entirely east of the CWA. The cold front positioning continues to appear to arrive earlier in the latest model runs and sweep through the area early in the day. The current expectation is that it sweeps east of the Hays-Dodge City line by noon. With the atmosphere not having time to be primed before the early afternoon at least, most of the CWA is devoid of storm potential. CAMs have general agreement with initiation around 2 PM where the front is so far east that only the Barber county area remains east of the front. Even in the scenario where the front is slower and initiation is sooner, the storms will likely not reach maturity before leaving the CWA. Friday continues the long streak of notable fire weather conditions. Areas near the KS/OK border west of Highway 283 with relative humidity minimums around 10-15% and winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. With the previously mentioned cold front and continued CAA, lows Saturday morning will be cold with a Freeze Watch out for the northwest half of the CWA with lows as cold as 27 degrees. Highs Saturday will fight the cold starting point and are forecast to reach the 60s. Even with the lowered temperatures, the cool dry air will still push widespread relative humidities from 8-15%. Winds are only forecast to be 10-15 mph so a fire headline is not expected, but with the prolonged dry conditions precautions are still advised. Lows Sunday morning, will be borderline with lows down to 29 degrees. Sunday highs will lead into next week with upper 70s and 80s. Through Thursday, the western half of the CWA will see relative humidities below or near 15%. Winds will flirt with the criteria and the coming days will provide more clarity on if headlines will be needed. Regardless of if there is one, precautions are strongly advised over this stretch of continued very dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Light (5-10 KTs) winds will start the period before winds strengthen from 15-20 KTs with gusts up to 30 KTs out of the south/southwest. At the end of the period, around 3Z, some high based cloud cover is expected to move in with some weak LLWS and lightening winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the western majority of the CWA from noon until 9 pm CDT with extreme fire weather conditions for all counties except Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Especially far SW Kansas could see potentially dangerous conditions. Friday's fire weather risk will be contained to far SW Kansas near the KS/OK border due to added moisture to much of the area, especially towards central KS. Saturday and Sunday will be extremely dry CWA wide. Future forecasts will determine if the winds will meet criteria for a fire weather headline with better potentially being place on Sunday via ensembles. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080- 084>089. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ FIRE WEATHER...KBJ  151 FXUS63 KIWX 160558 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through tonight as additional rainfall may cause renewed flooding in some areas. - A brief break is expected Thursday night into Friday before a stronger front arrives with more showers and thunderstorms. - Overall temperatures will remain above normal, with a dip to near or slightly below normal Sunday behind the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain will persist into Thursday as the region remains on the warm side of a persistent trough to the west. The discussion will focus mainly through Saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short time. A series of MCV's and other weaker disturbances, remnant outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms into Thursday. Greatest severe threat today appears to exist where it has the past couple of days from IA/IL area southwest into OK and TX, but our area lies in a Slight risk (2 out of 5) for large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover and multiple rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability, but enough shear and CAPE will exist to bring a threat for stg- svr storms. The first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across NW parts of the area. A small area of storms has been intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty winds. This will continue ENE and pose a threat for severe weather. SWOMCD #446 was just sent by SPC discussing the concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. CAMs generally suggest another round towards 00Z and again overnight as the sfc low passes to our NW. Severe threat could return again towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. On the hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected through tonight, opted to expand the Flood Watch to the entire area and expire at 12Z Thu. Do not expect widespread flood issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually cause rising river levels. Showers may linger into the start of Thursday, but model trends seem to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level support is exiting. SPC DY2 reflects this with a Marginal Risk across SE half or so of the area and could see this possibly being trimmed further in future outlooks. In the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we should get a break in precip Thursday night into Friday evening before a stronger trough (entering the Pacific NW) dives into the Plains and eventually makes it to the Great Lakes into Sat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late Fri night into early Sat). This is reflected with the main severe threat Fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on Sat. Time to sort that out. Colder air then arrives behind this front with a brief return to 40s and 50s Sunday then moderation back into the 60s and 60s for the work week. Rain chances appear limited at this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most likely will bring precip chances back. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong low level moisture transport and smaller scale embedded waves in upper level southwest flow have allowed for several clusters have showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. This will continue through the overnight hours, with bulk of the rain showers from 06Z-11Z. A few storms are possible, but overall coverage should become increasingly limited over the next several hours. The primary upper level trough across northern IL will slowly progress through mean upper level ridge, but strength of this ridge will result in short wave trough taking a more northeasterly route to the Lake Huron vicinity by late this afternoon. This will result in associated sfc boundary lagging back to the west this morning. This sfc boundary will eventually sag across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon resulting in a wind shift to the west. Best chance of thunderstorms appears to be across northeast Indiana following the track of the primary upper level low where sfc based instability and mid level lapse rates will be maximized. Have included a PROB30 group at KFWA given a little better proximity to low level boundary and upper level low, but KFWA should be on southern periphery of more favored thunder chances. Concern for tonight will shift to fog potential as sfc boundary settles across the area with light winds, partial clearing, and potential of near sfc moisture trapped beneath inversion. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Marsili  055 FXUS64 KSHV 160557 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon, mainly for areas north of I-20. - A strong cold front will move through the region on Saturday, bringing more widespread rain chances to the area. - Below normal temperatures will follow in the wake of the cold front from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Radar imagery early this morning continues to show areas of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-30, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. These storms have been sub-severe and should remain this way through the next few hours. Short range models indicate that this activity should be out of the area by around 06-08z. That being said, there NBM continues to maintain some low PoPs for our northern areas into this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions then settle in for Thursday night and most of Friday, before precipitation chances increase again as a strong cold front begins to approach the area from the northwest by Friday evening. This cold front will bring more widespread rainfall to the area starting early Saturday morning and exiting the area to the southeast by Saturday night. There are some pretty decent indications that this could be a good soaking rainfall for most locations. Drier conditions move in behind the cold front and will limit precipitation chances through at least Monday, after which , some low end PoPs return to the forecast but right now will remain low end. Temperatures today will range from the lower 80s to around 90 degrees across the region, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above seasonable normals. MIld temperatures remain for tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Friday will be similar to today in terms of high temperatures, however, Friday night is when things begin to "cool" down. We will see a wider variety of temperatures on Friday night as the cold front begins to enter the northwest portions of the area, where lows Saturday morning will be in the lower to upper 50s, while the remainder of the area will be in the lower to upper 60s. With the rain expected through the day Saturday, and the advancing cooler air, we will see a wide variety of high temperatures that afternoon as well, with ranges from the mid 60s across our northern zones to the mid 80s across our southeast zones. Saturday night will be chilly, or pleasant depending on how you like it, with lows ranging from around 40 degrees to the north and 50 degrees to the south. We could even see some upper 30s across our far northern zones. Sunday will be nice, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, followed by another chilly night Sunday night into Monday and then another pleasant day on Monday. From here we will see temperatures slowly start to rise again, returning to the lower to mid 80s by the middle of the week. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A large band of convection continues to shift E across extreme SE OK into the Nrn sections of SW AR early this morning, but should gradually diminish from W to E over the next few hours. This convection may produce locally gusty winds up to 25kts as it continues to diminish, as well as low AC cigs along and just to the S closer to the I-20 corridor of E TX/NW LA. Have inserted VCSH mention at TXK to start the TAF period, with a brief period of tempo thunder here, while maintaining VCSH at ELD at 09Z, although not expecting thunder to extend this far ESE. Farther S away from this convection, low MVFR cigs have begun to develop across SE and Deep E TX into SW LA, and will quickly shift N into the region overnight, affecting the TYR/GGG/SHV terminals between 08-10Z, and could reach MLU shortly after 12Z. The presence of an outflow bndry from the SW AR convection may inhibit these low cigs from reaching the SW AR terminals through daybreak, although low MVFR cigs should eventually develop here after daybreak once the convection diminishes. These low cigs will again slowly lift and return to VFR by late morning/midday, and eventually scatter out by mid to late afternoon before diminishing shortly after 00Z. Some thin cirrus should increase across the region from the W this evening, with additional low MVFR cigs redeveloping by 06Z over SE TX/SW LA and will quickly shift N into the region through daybreak Friday. S winds 5-10kts overnight will increase to 8-12kts, with occasional gusts to 20kts over E TX, after 15Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 66 88 68 / 10 0 0 10 MLU 89 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 82 62 85 56 / 20 10 10 40 TXK 85 67 89 65 / 30 10 0 20 ELD 85 63 88 64 / 30 0 0 10 TYR 85 66 86 64 / 10 0 0 20 GGG 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 LFK 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...15  709 FXUS61 KPHI 160558 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat of storms north of I-78 has ended early this morning. Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The threat of storms north of I-78 has ended early this morning. 2. Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. 3. Elevated fire weather potential possible on Thursday. 4. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The threat of storms north of I-78 has ended early this morning. A cluster of thunderstorms clipped portions of the southern Poconos and far northern New Jersey within the 12 AM hour early this morning. No additional storms are expected through this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record breaking warmth continues through Thursday with very warm and above normal temperatures through the first half of the weekend. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected through Thursday. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above average through the end of the week. Highs today and Thursday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s, though Thursday's highs could a touch cooler with some high clouds around. However, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall over the next couple of days. See the Climate Section below for temperature records today and Thursday. Today is set to be the first 90 degree day of the year for most and first since early September. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temps will stay well above normal through Saturday with temps mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures finally appear to cool back toward seasonable levels on Sunday and into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather spread possible on Thursday. A period of elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday as very warm and dry conditions continue. MinRH values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across eastern PA, NJ and the Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread. While these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, suppose a Special Weather Statement may be warranted. We will be in contact with our fire weather partners later today or tonight to determine if a SPS may be needed depending on how dry 10-hour dead fuel moistures are. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 4...There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. There will be a chance of showers later Saturday evening through Sunday. Any severe activity is expected to subside before reaching the Mid-Atlantic region, leaving just showers and an isolated thunderstorm possibility. Dry weather will return for the first half of the week, while cooler conditions return for the weekend through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...VFR. Winds mainly 5 kts or less, favoring a southwesterly direction. High confidence. Thursday...VFR with broken cirrus. Southwest winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. High confidence. Thursday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers, especially for RDG/ABE. Southwest winds shifting west to northwest near 10 kts with low- level wind shear possible. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Saturday night-Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers during the period which could lead to temporary lower conditions. Sunday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday. Southwest winds of 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt and seas around 2-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below advisory conditions. Sunday-Monday...There is a chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .CLIMATE... Several record high and warmest low temperatures were set on Wednesday. Record breaking heat is expected to continue through Thursday, including potential for some sites to experience monthly record warmest low temperatures for April. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 16th and monthly warmest low temperature records for April. Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 Record Warmest Low Temperatures Entire Month of April Site Record/Date (Year) Allentown (ABE) 64/19th (1985 and 2019) and 30th (1983) AC Airport (ACY) 70/26th (2009) AC Marina (55N) 67/26th (2009) Georgetown (GED) 71/29th (2017) Mount Pocono (MPO) 65/25th (1960) Philadelphia (PHL) 70/8th (1929) and 19th (1896) Reading (RDG) 68/25th (1960) Trenton (TTN) 70/19th (1896) and 20th (1896) Wilmington (ILG) 74/19th (1896) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Robertson/Staarmann AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM/Robertson/Staarmann MARINE...DeSilva/RCM/Robertson