554 FXUS65 KBOI 160607 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1207 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and a chance of thunderstorms this evening, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight. - Subfreezing morning temperatures tonight, Friday, and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 236 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showing a well defined cold front stretching through central Oregon. The front will push through SE Oregon late this afternoon and across southwest Idaho this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with enhancement possible as it pushes into the west-central ID mountains. The wind gust potential along the front is 30-40 mph with higher end gusts of up to 50 mph from stronger showers/storms. Colder air will be quick to move in behind the front tonight, allowing for a changeover to snow down to valley floors. This will mostly impact the western Magic Valley where showers linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise lower elevations dry out behind the front overnight while mountains see a continued chance of snow showers. Light accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are expected across mountain valleys through mid-morning Thursday while higher elevations pick up an additional 3 to 8 inches of snow. In the Snake Plain temperatures will drop to around freezing Thursday morning so have opted to go with a Freeze Warning. The highest confidence for freezing temperatures is across the Upper Treasure Valley (Boise metro and points east) and western Magic Valley. Feel less certain about a freeze in the lower Treasure Valley where continued northwest winds could keep temperatures above freezing, especially near the ID/OR border. Friday is notably cooler with high temperatures around 15 degrees below normal and breezy northwest winds making it feel colder. Even warmer spots in the lower Snake Plain will see wind chill values only top out in the mid 30s to low 40s. With the cold air mass in place have much higher confidence in widespread freezing temperatures Friday morning across the Snake Plain. This will be a colder and longer duration freeze than what we see tonight. Otherwise, Friday is dry across most of the area, with scattered snow showers lingering in the west-central Idaho mountains. Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees from Thursday and lighter winds lessen the chill. Another frost/freeze is possible Friday night, but will hold off on any products for now. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 236 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A ridge building into the northwest region will bring warmer and drier conditions Saturday through Sunday. Saturday morning will still see temperatures hovering near freezing in the lower Treasure Valley and 5-10 degrees below freezing over other areas. Sunday is expected to see peak temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Guidance uncertainty remains over the arrival timing of a closed upper low digging into the region from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Overall ensemble guidance has delayed the arrival to late Monday, with a chance of precip over the SE OR areas. A slight warming trend should stay intact through midweek due to the south- southwest flow expected from this system. For now, precipitation chances will increase to 20-40% area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus generally projects higher precip coverage over the entire CWA on Wednesday as the low passes over the area. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1207 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Cold front exiting the area east, with scattered showers continuing through Thu/PM. Isolated lightning Thu/PM. Snow levels lowering to valley floors overnight. Low VFR/MVFR in heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR in heavier snow showers. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-40 kt. KBOI...Precipitation tapering off behind the front with VFR conditions under low-mid clouds. A 30% chance of showers at terminal with a 10% chance of lightning after Thu/18z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu/PM. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ012-014- 016. Freeze Warning from midnight Thursday night to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. OR...Freeze Warning from 4 AM MDT /3 AM PDT/ to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Thursday for ORZ064. Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY  441 FXUS61 KPBZ 160616 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 216 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... For today, there has been a slight eastward shift in the Marginal Risk area, which now encompasses virtually all of the forecast area. Otherwise, there were no major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms exists for this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A break in the convection pattern is expected Friday. 2) A stronger cold front is expected to cross Saturday afternoon and evening, with another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind again appears to be the most likely threat. 3) Much above-normal temperatures continue until the Saturday cold front passage. Behind it, temperatures crash to much below-normal levels. Frost/freeze concerns return by early next week, and even a few Sunday night snowflakes are possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a morning lull, another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure crosses Michigan into southern Ontario today, dragging a weak front across the Upper Ohio Valley. A trailing mid-level shortwave crossing the lower Great Lakes should spark a round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon across central Ohio, with coverage slowly increasing into the late afternoon/early evening as activity crosses our region. The environment will be a little less favorable than Wednesday for severe storms. Although deep-layer shear of around 40 knots will be present, instability should be somewhat less pronounced, topping out in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Factors such as increased cloud cover, lower dewpoints, and weaker mid-level lapse rates all contribute to this lower level of buoyancy. The poor lapse rates point to lower hail potential, while weak to absent low-level curvature to hodographs with uniform column southwest flow suggest little tornado threat. This leaves isolated damaging wind as the most likely impact from the stronger storms, especially if they organize into clusters/short lines. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the forecast area. A second shortwave digging across the Tennessee Valley will help to dislodge what has been a stubborn southeast CONUS ridge Thursday night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work their way out after sunset. Behind this wave, a brief period of mid-level ridging should allow for a break from the daily thunderstorm activity for most of Friday and Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... A stronger cold front is still slated to cross during the afternoon/evening hours of Saturday. This boundary will provide the most focused lift of the past several days, which could be better for convective organization. The main question with this boundary remains timing, which would have implications on how much instability can build across our region. This will depend at least in part on the speed and orientation of the associated 500mb shortwave trough. Ensemble clusters suggest some fairly minor differences in strength and timing with this wave as well as the surface boundary. However, even a 3-6 hour difference has notable effects on the potential location and severity of any associated convection, and thus the overall impact level remains uncertain. Machine-learning guidance from NCAR and CSU do highlight our region for at least some severe storm potential. Ensemble soundings during that period depict generally poor mid-level lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature, suggesting damaging wind gusts currently appear to be the most likely impact. KEY MESSAGE 3... Much above-normal temperatures continue into Saturday ahead of the expected strong cold front. Today, the approaching mid-level trough will begin to knock down the anomalous 500mb heights, which were above the 95th percentile yesterday but will be merely around 90th percentile by afternoon. More abundant clouds will also keep temperatures a bit more in check. High temperatures in the lower 80s remain favored for many areas south of I-80, but records will likely remain a bit out of reach. All climate sites have 30 percent or lower chances of tying/breaking March 16th standards. Meanwhile, record warm minimums for today are more in jeopardy, with all climate locations save ZZV having a 70% or greater chance of occurrence. Ridging returns Friday, but with lower absolute 500mb heights, thus records are not likely. There may be some modest potential to approach records on Saturday, especially if the front is later than currently projected, allowing for a longer period of warm southwest flow. NBM probabilities of 80 or warmer may be a bit overstated, but much of the area from Pittsburgh south should have at least a 50/50 shot of reaching that level. Meanwhile, behind the front, the script flips, and northeast CONUS troughing leads to daytime high temperatures some 10-15 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday, before approaching climatology on Tuesday. Frost/freeze products may need to be issued by early next week, and some Sunday night snowflakes are a possibility. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areawide VFR is expected under mid-level clouds through the overnight and morning hours. Continued isolated showery activity is expected for FKL/DUJ through about sunrise today. Cloud decks will begin to lower in the afternoon hours in front of an approaching cold front, but VFR CIGs are expected to hold firm. A line of broken strong to severe storms are expected along the cold front. These storms can bring brief bouts of MVFR restrictions or a few dips to IFR. It is possible for there to be 2 lines of storms, with one along a pre-frontal trough. Altogether, CAMs are in good agreement on a ~20z approach towards the PA/OH border. Timing has been broken down with prevailing groups showing the greatly increased confidence in timing of these storms as opposed to prior days. Behind the cold front VFR CIGs can return in VCSH or limited VCTS activity before CIGs are expected to begin to fall as we approach sunrise on Friday. Winds will be gusty across the region Thursday, with Swerly gusts between 20-25 kts for most ports ahead of the frontal passage. Behind the front, winds shift to more westerly and remain gusty for a couple hours before subsiding. Outlook... Friday should be mostly dry following Thursday evening's weak frontal passage. However, another low pressure system and a stronger cold front approach the area on Saturday, returning shower and thunderstorm chances (and associated restrictions) to the region through the weekend. Dry weather and VFR conditions are then favored as we head into early next week with a pattern shift following the weekend cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Cermak/AK  117 FXUS64 KSJT 160617 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated thunderstorm are possible late this afternoon and into the evening, but chances for severe storms are small. - A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Another day, another day with a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the area. Dryline develops across the western portions of the area, although it appears to even more diffuse than in previous days. CAPE values ahead of the dryline will still be 3000+ J/kg but given the lack of appreciable upper support and weak surface convergence along the dryline, CAMs are showing only isolated activity. Will keep POPs at the 20% or less and see if anything can develop. Will add however, that if a storm can develop and then survive the relatively weak shear aloft, getting some severe size hail cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The next strong storm system with a sharper dryline will move into the Central and Southern Plains Friday. Looks like the more organized severe weather will remain north of our area. However, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west central Texas during the late afternoon into Friday night. A cold front is south of the area by Saturday morning with cooler and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week. However, return southerly flow may result in a low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal this week. Please keep up with the latest weather information as the month of April is severe weather season. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Convection has ended across West Central Texas for the night. Satellite shows the low clouds starting to redevelop and push north into the area, and this trend will continue through sunrise. As usual the last few days, MVFR cigs will persist at many location into the late morning hours or even early afternoon in the southern terminals, before lifting into a VFR deck. More storms are possible this afternoon/evening but chances seem lower than in previous days and with much more uncertainty. Will monitor and update as needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 66 90 51 / 10 10 10 40 San Angelo 88 65 90 51 / 10 20 10 40 Junction 87 61 88 53 / 10 10 10 20 Brownwood 86 63 86 52 / 10 10 10 40 Sweetwater 90 66 92 51 / 10 20 10 40 Ozona 85 64 87 54 / 10 10 10 40 Brady 85 63 86 53 / 10 10 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07  873 FXUS65 KTFX 160621 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1221 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of snow will be most impactful over and near the higher terrain of central and southwest this morning. - Temperatures remain below the seasonal average through Friday, with additional periods of scattered to numerous snow shower activity over much of the forecast area. - A building ridge of high pressure will bring warming and drying conditions this weekend into early next week, with another spring Pacific system moving for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: An upper level trough continues to deepen over the Great Basin, bringing widespread snow showers across North-central, Central and Southwestern Montana today. Snow showers will be particularly prevalent in Southwest Montana, with isolated snow showers across North-Central Montana. The earlier passage of a cold front and northerly flow aloft will keep temperatures well below seasonal average, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. A cold upper level low will move across the Hi-Line today, with high winds aloft wrapping around it. This will bring breezy to gusty northwesterly winds to North-Central Montana this morning through the afternoon, before they dissipate in the evening. On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday, bringing milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the mild conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Periods of snow and snow showers through Friday... Precipitation associated with the frontal boundary over the plains will move eastward with only scattered rain/snow showers lingering for the remainder of the morning. The colder air aloft near the trough axis is slightly disjointed from the peak stratiform snow, but it should arrive just in time to produce impactful snow to areas over and near the central and southwest mountain ranges through around mid- to late morning, especially for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and their north/northwesterly facing foothills. Slushy/snowy travel conditions look to impact the Bozeman and Ennis morning commutes, at least briefly due to this general 2 to 6 inch snowfall. Localized areas that receive the heaviest snowfall may even observe some isolated instances of power outages and or tree damage. Snow becomes more showery in nature heading into the afternoon hours, though the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties look to see lingering impacts through this evening. Despite the let up in accumulating snow impacts, a cold north to northwesterly flow will persist through Friday afternoon. The combination of the higher April sun angle quickly heating surfaces to the mid to upper 30s under the mid-level cold core around 2 standard deviations below climatology will encourage the development of locally heavy scattered to numerous snow showers. The latest hires guidance shows the plains getting the brunt of this activity, but all areas will see at least scattered snow showers. Impacts will be highly localized and brief, but will include sharp visibility reductions, gusty winds, and minor localized slushy roadway accumulations. After a cold night tonight with lows mostly in the teens and even single digits over areas of snow cover, another shortwave will bring more scattered to numerous snow showers and even general areas of light snow. There is currently around a 50 to 70% chance for an inch snowfall or more for areas near and over the central and southwest mountain ranges. The timing looks to be in the late morning and afternoon hours, but winter weather products may be needed should this shift earlier during the colder portion of the morning. - RCG && .AVIATION... 16/12Z TAF Period A spring storm will bring low CIGS and reduced VIS to terminals across Southwest Montana for much of the next 24 hours, with terminals across Central and North Central Montana seeing fluctuations in CIGS/VIS over this same timeframe. With respect to Southwest Montana persistent snow or a rain/snow mix across the KWYS, KEKS, and KBZN terminals will bring LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions through 15-18z Thursday, with conditions only improving to MVFR/low-VFR thereafter. Further north an area of precipitation will gradually exit through the KGTF, KLWT, and KHVR terminals through 09-12z Thursday; however, snow showers will re-develop during the late morning/afternoon hours on Thursday and persist through the evening hours here and at the KCTB and KHLN terminals. Widespread mountain obscuration will continue through the day on Thursday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 22 45 25 / 30 40 50 10 CTB 30 14 44 21 / 50 20 20 0 HLN 43 25 46 25 / 40 40 70 10 BZN 39 19 43 19 / 80 50 70 20 WYS 34 12 36 11 / 90 70 70 20 DLN 38 19 43 20 / 70 20 30 0 HVR 37 17 46 25 / 70 30 0 0 LWT 38 17 42 22 / 50 30 40 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  541 FXUS62 KILM 160623 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 223 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Model consensus is for a slightly faster arrival of the cold front on Sunday, leading to cooler forecast highs. No significant changes have been made to Sunday's forecast rain chances. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. The upper ridge along the Southeast U.S. coast is at its strongest right now and will weaken with the approach of a modest shortwave trough moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Friday. As the shortwave moves offshore late Friday, heights will rise again across the Southeast for what may be our hottest day, Saturday, so far in 2026. All this upper ridging is supporting Bermuda high pressure at the surface and warm southwesterly synoptic winds should continue through the first half of Sunday. Models remain very stable in their depiction of well above normal 850 mb temps across the eastern Carolinas for the next few days. 850 mb temps near +16C today and Friday could surge to +17 to +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge restrengthens. This is 3 to 4C above the 90th percentile climo values on SPC's sounding climatology webpage and is very near normal for mid July. This should translate to high temperatures inland near 90 degrees today and Friday, then rising into the lower 90s on Saturday. Onshore synoptic and seabreeze winds near the coast should keep daytime temperatures 6-12 degrees cooler. Our latest forecast explicitly forecasts Florence's record to be tied today and Lumberton's record to be tied on Saturday. It will likely be no more than 3 degrees away from all record highs at Wilmington, Lumberton, and Florence over the next several days, so no records are truly safe. Inland from the cooler coastline, vertical mixing should be deep enough to bring down drier air from within the subsidence inversion aloft. Dewpoints should crash through the 50s across the Pee Dee and Border Belt regions each afternoon. This should result in minimum relative humidity of 30-35 percent today and 25-30 percent Friday and Saturday. Given it's now been ten days with no measurable rainfall and fuel/soil moisture continues to decrease, Fire Danger Statements will likely be needed each day for portions of the Carolinas. Record highs today through Saturday: ................Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. An energetic shortwave moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday and New England on Monday will push a surface cold front through the Carolinas Sunday. Model trends are slightly faster with this feature than 24 hours ago which implies the front could slide offshore before peak heating (and before potential peak instability) in the afternoon. From a qualitative view, the 850-700 mb Gulf moisture surge arriving coincident with the front looks a bit better than was depicted over the past few days. Therefore shower or t-storm chances are essentially unchanged at 20-30 percent on Sunday, diminishing rapidly Sunday evening behind the front. A Canadian airmass building across the area Sunday night through Tuesday will bring refreshingly cool nights and dry, pleasant days. Sunday night's lows should reach the mid 40s with some wind. By Monday night lower to middle 40s are expected, but less wind means normally colder spots on peat and organic soils could dip into the 30s. Temperatures should moderate back toward normal by Wednesday as the Canadian high pushes offshore. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Mainly intermittent cirrus with possibility of smoke across northeast SC from a couple of fires in Williamsburg and Marion counties. S to SW winds will persist with winds less than 10 kts overnight and becoming gusty during the afternoon...southwest 10 kts with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Summer-like Bermuda high will maintain a quiet and persistent forecast. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Friday through Monday...A light to moderate southwesterly wind will continue up until the arrival of a cold front during the day Sunday. Synoptic winds should average 10-12 knots, but seabreezes each afternoon will increase nearshore winds as high as 15-20 kt. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with an east-southeast 9 second swell generated by a long easterly fetch south of the Bermuda high. The aforementioned cold front should arrive at the beaches around noon on Sunday, followed by a sudden shift to northerly winds which could increase to 20-25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  119 FXUS61 KBUF 160623 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 223 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Areas of fog are possible northeast of Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Fog is also possible tonight. The severe thunderstorm risk has increased slightly across western and central NY this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with damaging winds as the main hazard. 2) Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. 3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with damaging winds as the main hazard. GOES water vapor shows an upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS with moisture streaming across the Great Lakes and Northeastern states early this morning. Satellite derived moisture fields show a broad area of PWATS over 1.25" and percent of normal at 200%. Large scale forcing has moved east of the region early this morning, with lingering scattered showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Attention turns upstream as a shortwave trough digs into the Mid- western states. An area of low pressure from southern Wisconsin to central Michigan will move northeast today. Initially, an uptick in winds and warm air advection across the northern Ohio valley will support showers and isolated thunderstorms across far western NY this morning. As the surface low moves northwest of the forecast area, a cold front will approach the region today. A very moist airmass and daytime heating will result in destabilization across the region. Guidance remains uncertain regarding the magnitude of instability across interior western and north-central NY today, with the HREF more favorable for moderate instability and the REFS more subdued. Earlier showers and cloud cover especially across far western NY may lead to more inhibition. Forecast 0-6km shear is around 40kts this afternoon and the combination of moderate shear and instability will support the development of strong to severe multicell, possibly supercells. The primary threat will be damaging winds, however large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. In fact, HREF guidance depicts a differential heating boundary along the southern shore of Lake Ontario into the eastern Lake Ontario region that could be a zone for severe thunderstorms. The SPC Day 1 outlook has Marginal and Slight risk areas across the forecast area. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze early this afternoon and move eastward while tapping into a favorable environment for strong thunderstorms. Due to the moist airmass, thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, however quick moving storms should limit any hydro concerns. The area of low pressure will move northeast of the region with the cold front moving into the forecast area and stalling overnight. The potential for strong thunderstorms will exit to the east this evening, but scattered showers will be possible overnight. Also, patchy fog is possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. A deep closed low trudging across the southern Canadian Prairies Friday night through Saturday night will lift northeast across Hudson Bay and further strengthen by Sunday. This will send a powerful cold front through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A strong southwesterly LLJ immediately ahead of the front transporting a plume of Gulf-based moisture across the Mississippi Valley will support another round of widespread rain showers. Diurnal timing of the front looks favorable for enough instability to grow within the warm sector to potentially bring a few thunderstorms as well. Uncertainty remains moderate to high in the severe potential as models advertise the LLJ weakening over the region as the precip moves in Saturday afternoon. While the greatest threat thus appears to be upstream across the Ohio Valley, could see a lower-end threat extending northeast into WNY where the stronger jet energy and building instability have the most favorable overlap in our forecast area. The strong, unidirectional mid/upper level flow may support a linear convective mode with a few localized strong wind gusts. The heaviest, steadiest precipitation should lie east of the forecast area by early Sunday morning. Mid to long range guidance suggests a secondary wave developing along the front in the Mid- Atlantic region Saturday night which may slow its overall progression, while the main trough axis will not move through until Sunday night. This will continue to support lower-end chances for showers, though the colder, more stable post-frontal environment will be highly unfavorable for thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. While temps will cool off a few degrees for Friday as the quasi- stationary boundary hanging over the region is firmly shoved to the southeast, above average temperatures will persist through Saturday. The more substantial pattern change will come behind the cold front described in Key Message (2) as deep upper level troughing crosses the Northeast. 850mb temps around +15C Saturday afternoon will tumble to either side of -6C by Sunday morning, then bottom out around -12C Monday morning. This will translate to sfc high temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees (F) below normal Sunday through Monday night. Overnight lows will be similarly cold, with areawide temps dipping below freezing and potentially even into the teens across the higher terrain areas, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place. The trough axis moving through the region combined with some minor lake enhancement and upslope effects may even support a few snow showers or flurries at times early next week. Impactful accumulations appear very unlikely at this range. High pressure at all levels cresting over and east of the region should cause a southerly flow to develop by Tuesday, with temperatures recovering to near climatological averages through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Regional radar shows scattered showers in vicinity of Lake Ontario with the heaviest rain and thunderstorms east of the region early this morning. A warm, humid airmass resides across the region. An area of low stratus and fog are located northeast of Lake Erie and east-northeast of Lake Ontario and LIFR conditions will continue at BUF/IAG through 10z and ART through 13z. A brief period of MVFR/IFR is expected at KROC early this morning, before improving to VFR by 12z. Showers are likely east of Lake Ontario through this morning and may disrupt/improve flight conditions before falling back down. An area of scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm are possible across far western NY through the morning hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. Scattered showers and patchy fog are expected with flight conditions lowering to IFR or below across the region overnight. Outlook... Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing over to snow throughout the day. Monday...Improving to VFR/MVFR. Lingering lake enhanced snow showers and clouds gradually dissipate. && .MARINE... A warm, humid airmass will reside across the eastern Great Lakes through Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the lakes today, a few of which may produce strong surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise the warmer airmass and relatively cold lake temperatures will result in limited mixing of synoptic winds...thereby precluding any real risk of advisory- level conditions. Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are then expected later tonight and Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes...before winds increase out of the south/southwest Saturday/Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of a strong cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions with the frontal passage also accompanied by another round of showers and storms...some of which could produce locally stronger winds and higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK/PP AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/JJR  241 FXUS62 KTAE 160623 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 223 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over our marine zones for Sunday into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong mid level high pressure is situated over the northeast Gulf and up the eastern seaboard while a shortwave trough is located in the southern Plains. The ridge will be shunted south this afternoon and tonight as the trough moves northeast through the Tennessee Valley. The ridge builds back northward ahead of another trough moving through the Plains and an associated cold front. Before the front arrives Sunday, very warm temperatures will continue into the first half of the weekend. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s with around 90 degrees in some locations in the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia / I-75 corridor Friday and Saturday. Along with this, fog development appears likely each morning through Saturday. HREF/NBM probs for dense fog is around 60- 70% through the Panhandle and Big Bend where a dense fog advisory is in effect and may need to be extended east overnight tonight and may require another advisory Friday morning. Much of the forcing with the cold front will be located well north of the area as the front swings by but may be just enough to squeeze out a few showers (holding around 20% west of the Flint/Apalachicola rivers Sunday morning). Slightly cooler and drier air will be left in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s and 80s Sunday through Tuesday then a gradual moderating trend Wednesday with more widespread 80s returning. Fire concerns continue through the area with the ongoing drought and continued dry conditions. The next front appears to be a mostly dry frontal passage with a reinforcing shot of drier air on north to northeast winds. In fact, afternoon humidities may fall below 20% in spots Monday, which coupled with breezy winds and it sets the stage for high fire danger which may extend into Tuesday as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Patchy to areas of fog will begin to develop over the next few hours bring prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions to ECP and potentially east and north to near the TLH and DHN terminals. Fog is expected to lift by mid morning across all terminals with VFR conditions prevailing afterwards as 10 knot southerly winds develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure will dominate through the northeast Gulf waters into the weekend with light southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday night through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The stretch of dry weather will continue with high pressure situated through the southeast US. MinRHs today through Saturday will generally be in the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range inland. High dispersions are expected today along and north of Highway 82 and on Saturday along and north of I-10 as afternoon mixing heights reach in excess of 6000 feet. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front fall to critical values in the upper teens to low 20s percent range, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 63 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  631 FXUS63 KGLD 160625 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1225 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire Tri-State area today. Dry and breezy conditions will allow fires to quickly spread. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area for Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures dropping into the low 20s may damage vegetation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Over the next day or so, a ridge will be pushing east, out of the area as a trough approaches from the northwest. This will allow us to remain clear and with southwesterly flow today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s in the western CWA to near 90 in the eastern CWA. Dew points will remain pretty stable, which will push RH levels to around 10% for the entire Tri-State area. With the warm temperatures, we expect mixing heights to reach to around 10,000 feet. This will make it more likely that most of the CWA will see gusts at or above 25 MPH for half of the afternoon. This, in addition to all bordering CWAs issuing Red Flag Warnings has prompted us to issuing a CWA Red Flag Warning for this afternoon. Overnight tonight, around 6-9Z, a cold front will enter from the northwest. This is the accompanying feature of the incoming mid level trough. Winds will rapidly shift, becoming north- northwesterly, and gusting around 30-40 kts, with pockets up to 50 kts being possible. This is hazardous for any smoldering fires as they could flare back up. There is a low chance of blowing dust as this front comes in, but potential for less than 1 mile in blowing dust is only around 2%. By 14Z, the front will have cleared the CWA, but winds gusting around 30 kts will be common all day. Temperatures will be stunted, topping out in the upper 40s to low 60s. Combined with a 10F increase in dew points behind the front will keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any critical fire weather concerns. In fact, there will be an increase chance of precipitation throughout the day. Precipitation will primarily be focused in the far northwestern CWA and start off as rain. As the day progresses and more CAA moves in, snow will mix in and by sunset, most areas west of U.S. 385 will only be seeing snow. After 0Z, the precipitation weakens, but most of the CWA will see a 20-30% chance of seeing some light precipitation. QPF is expected to be light, under 0.1" but this could lead to some slick spots on elevated surfaces come Saturday morning as temperatures drop into the low 20s. Temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s across the CWA has prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for the entire area. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%. Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Southwesterly winds will dominate, gusting around 20-30 kts tomorrow afternoon, before weakening and becoming more southeasterly after sunset. KGLD looks to see LLWS from the south at 200-400 feet AGL at 35-40 kts early this morning, too. Before sunrise Friday morning, a cold front will sweep through the area from the north. Winds will rapidly shift and increase in speed. Precipitation may occur behind the front during the day Friday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041- 042. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA  645 FXUS63 KBIS 160625 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 125 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wide range in temperatures from north to south Thursday as a cold front pushes into the state. - Periods of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow. - Breezy Thursday through Thursday night, windy Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday through Saturday, followed by a warm-up into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Tweaked POPs and sky cover a bit to better reflect latest radar and satellite imagery. Other weather elements on track. Area of showers in northeast Montana continue to move east into northwest North Dakota early this morning. Cloud bases rather high, but still seeing some reports of moisture reaching the surface. Will also maintain a wintry mix far north. UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 We slowed down the arrival of clouds and also precip chances just a bit late this evening and overnight. Also lowered pops a little, limiting likely pops to right along the International Border. There remains a signal for freezing precipitation along the border in the north central so will have to monitor but qpf looks to be very light so impacts should be minimal if this trend holds. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 No changes needed to the early evening update. Mid and high clouds working their way east across the state. Mild temperatures and generally light winds into the early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Quiet and mild weather continues for today with highs this afternoon mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Otherwise, upper level low that is currently over British Columbia will slide east across southern Canada through Friday. For tonight, WAA off associated southwesterly flow aloft may help produce some light rain mainly in the northwest and in the far north central. Later in the night and into Thursday morning, a wintry mix, including light freezing rain, is possible mainly near the International border. A cold surface frontal boundary associated with aforementioned upper low will begin passing through the state from north to south Thursday. This will result in three primary things. First, breezy northerly winds. Second, a large difference in high temperatures with areas along the International Border much colder than those near the ND/SD border (exactly how far south the largest gradient sets up is always difficult to forecast). And third, additional precipitation chances initially starting in the west Thursday afternoon, then passing from west to east across the state Thursday evening through Friday morning. Initially, this precipitation should start mostly as rain in the afternoon before transitioning mostly to snow in the evening and overnight hours. Overall, snow totals should remain light with high probabilities of at least a dusting in all but northwestern North Dakota. NBM probabilities of at least an inch are around 20 to 40 percent from south central into northeastern North Dakota, though a band of heavier snow setting up isn't out of the question. All in all, expecting up to an inch of snow with localized higher amounts possible. Once this system moves out, expect mostly dry conditions through early next week. After which, there are indications of a more active pattern towards the middle of next week. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be well below average with highs in the 30s and 40s, though more in the 30s on Friday and more in the 40s on Saturday. Lows, on the other hands, will range be mostly in the 20s on Thursday and Saturday night, and even cooler and in the upper teens to low 20s Friday night. A warming trend is then on tap to start next week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s by Monday, and lows remaining above freezing through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon across western and central North Dakota. The exception may be the far northwest and north central, near the International Border, where MVFR ceilings will approach from the north and may impact KXWA. Widespread MVFR ceilings then develop Thursday evening at all terminals, with a chance for IFR cigs as well, as a weather disturbance brings rain and snow chances to the region. Generally light easterly winds early this morning, then northeast winds across the north and southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area Thursday afternoon as a cold front pushes south, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...NH  859 FXUS61 KGYX 160628 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 228 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in strong to severe storms in southern New Hampshire is increasing for this evening with strong to damaging wind being the primary threat, but hail and even a brief tornado can not be ruled out. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening with southern New Hampshire having the highest chance of seeing a strong to severe storm. The primary threat in the stronger storms will be strong to damaging winds. 2. Above normal temperatures and shower chances continue into Friday, with some uncertainty in extent of shower coverage. 3. A damp and cloudy weekend, with a stronger cold front on Sunday bringing widespread precipitation 4. Crisp and dry conditions to start next week, but the long- range pattern remains unsettled deeper into the week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking along a quasi-stationary boundary pushes a warm front into the area today. A seabreeze will be pushing back at it, but at least some of the area, most likely New Hampshire, will end up in the warm sector. Ridging aloft will help to allow this area to clear out a bit while clouds and showers from convection in the Great Lakes Region roll over the ridge and into northern zones keeping their potential instability development lower. The latest CAMs continue to show a swath of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE across southern New Hampshire and far southwestern Maine. With 500-1000 J/kg inland into the foothills. Mid-level lapse rates look to be lacking, but low level lapse rates do get up to 7-7.5 C/km in southwestern New Hampshire around the time convection is expected to be moving in (around 6 PM). Bulk deep layer shear around 50 knots favors cellular structure and the CAMs are showing this initially as well. This will be the best chance to see hail and/or a brief tornado with 25-30 knots of low layer shear present, but this will be isolated. Storm mode looks to become more multicellular and maybe even linear as the event progresses and this is where the primary threat of damaging wind gusts will be highest. Overall the threat window looks to be about 5PM to 11PM with all hazards possible initially, but quickly progressing to a primary wind threat. Southern New Hampshire will have the greatest chance of seeing strong to severe storms with the rest of the area seeing more run of the mill type thunderstorms as they will weaken moving toward the coast and more northern inland zones are likely to remain cloudier. The bulk of the showers and storms push off the coast with more scattered showers lingering overnight as the upper trough moves through. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper trough moves through the area as a quasi- stationary front finally pushes southward on Friday. There is still some uncertainty between hi-res guidance on how exactly this pans out. Some runs have had the front clearing early which would cause little fanfare as the trough crosses in the afternoon, but recent runs are a little slower to clear it and result in a more widespread area of showers and possibly thunderstorms. There will be time to iron out the details with more runs, but for now a widespread chance of showers seems reasonable. Drier air will follow the front so when ever it does push out we can expect a break in this showery pattern even if it's brief. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The warm sector will be squashed south Friday night and that is likely it for "warm" temperatures for the foreseeable future. On Saturday a 1030 mb high develops near Newfoundland. While cool and moist conditions have been common along the immediate coast all week due to onshore flow and seabreezes, a stronger push of easterly onshore flow on Saturday is expected to result in these conditions extending farther inland. The 25th-75th percentile temperature spread peaks at 10 degrees Fahrenheit for interior zones, but remains below 5 degrees on the immediate coast, suggesting a bit more uncertainty further inland, but local experience shows cold air usually wins in these setups. Measurable precipitation chances look nil on Saturday with a dry layer aloft, but moist low-levels suggest there could be some mist/drizzle near the coast. 25th-75th percentile temperature spread is also on the high side Sunday, indicating timing differences with a strong cold front that is expected to cross the region. Unlike the previous week, dynamics will be on the strong side, owing to a 500 mb jet streak nosing into the region and rather robust height falls aloft. Current NBM mean QPF offers 0.30-0.50", with the higher totals focused near the White Mountains where some upslope enhancement is likely. The 90th percentile is below an inch regionwide, owing to the progressive nature of the front. PWATs surge to over an inch on Sunday which suggests the potential for heavy downpours. Crashing temperatures Sunday afternoon suggest rain may change to snow in the mountains and near the Canadian border. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Cold and crisp to start next week as high pressure crests over the region. Both Monday and Tuesday offer high temperatures near 10 degrees below average, with a hard freeze looking likely Tuesday morning. Long story short, it will feel more like March than April. Generally sunny skies should take the edge off the cold though, thanks to the high sun angle. A rather complex upper-level pattern becomes evident later into next week. An anomalous block develops downstream from Greenland to northern Quebec, effectively forcing this weekend's trough to retrograde west and detach from jet stream flow. It is too early to speculate on details, but deterministic and ensemble guidance is in agreement on troughing returning to the Northeast by mid-to-late week with a rather blocky pattern. Chilly and wet conditions are suggested with such a pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and coastal fog start the TAF period and persist through about 15Z. Inland terminals should start to see some improvement after this, but low ceilings are likely to persist longer at coastal terminals. Closer to 00Z Friday showers and thunderstorms enter the region which may reintroduce restrictions. Confidence in LEB, MHT, and CON seeing thunderstorms in their vicinity is moderate, with lower confidence elsewhere. Thunderstorms should be exiting the area by 06Z Friday with just lingering showers and likely low clouds and fog. Outlook... Friday: MVFR improving to VFR through the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon, but there is uncertainty in coverage. Friday night: VFR to start, with IFR to LIFR possible late with marine fog pushing inland. Saturday-Saturday night: IFR to LIFR restrictions possible due to marine fog and stratus at the coastal sites, but fog may also occur inland. VFR conditions most likely during the afternoon. Sunday...Widespread restrictions and rain likely. Sunday night: Conditions return to VFR, except MVFR remains possible at HIE. Monday: Mainly VFR with gusty northwest winds. && .MARINE... Generally tranquil conditions are expected to continue on the waters through at least Friday as wind gusts remain 15 knots or less and wave heights remain 3 feet or less. Winds start light from the northeast on Thursday, but will quickly turn onshore as a sea breeze develops. Winds shift back to the northeast Thursday night as and showers and thunderstorms push off the coast. They will stay there through Friday and be a bit breezier as a front crosses the waters. More fog and stratus are likely from early Saturday through Sunday as easterly winds and moisture increase ahead of a cold front that will also bring widespread precipitation on Sunday. SCA conditions are likely with gusty post-frontal winds Sunday night and Monday. High pressure should then allow conditions to fall below SCA levels by Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Baron  452 FXUS63 KGRR 160629 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 229 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering Showers and Storm Into Afternoon, Continued Flooding - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday - Colder and Windy Sunday - Dry Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Lingering Showers and Storm Into Afternoon, Continued Flooding Thunderstorms have exited the area, leaving areas of rain. Additional storms are noted upstream across southern WI. Although the vast majority of expected precipitation has fallen already, there is a signal in some of the convection allowing models that localized bands of a quick additional half inch or so are possible in some spots before the rain fully exits this afternoon. - Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday After a dry and warm Friday with highs in the 70s, we will experience deep southwesterly lower tropospheric flow in response to an approaching sharp upper trough. SPC does advertise a Day4 (12Z Sat to 12Z Sun) risk for severe weather that reaches into SE Lower MI, and this is corroborated by several of the medium range AI models. This will depend in large part on frontal timing. Predictability for this might actually be relatively good due to the highly phased and especially prominent nature of the upper trough and associated low level baroclinic zone. - Colder and Windy Sunday Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Highs are expected to make it into the 40s, but this will still feel quite brisk with the winds and coming off a prolonged period of unseasonable warmth. - Dry Early Next Week Northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the exiting upper low will yield dry conditions with a gradual warmup. Some of the deterministic model solutions show an upper PV max brushing the northern Great Lakes, but precipitation chances remain in question due to scarcity of low level moisture. The odds currently favor a dry forecast into and including Wednesday, but this could change. The good news is that any precipitation that occurs should be far less impactful than what has been experienced this week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward across the area as a frontal boundary traverses Michigan. An additional line of showers and thunderstorms will reach KMKG later in the morning, followed by terminals further to the south and east in the afternoon. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are possible as the storms reach the terminals. Lower clouds will remain in the area after the storms pass, which means MVFR conditions will persist into the early evening. Increased southwesterly winds also pick up in the late morning through early afternoon along and south of Interstate 96, with peak gusts around 20 knots possible. Winds should decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 In coordination with MKX, have extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until Friday morning. As noted previously, we expect increasing winds and waves to become hazardous to small craft beginning Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries. Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches. Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052- 056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ845>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...Meltzer MARINE...TJT HYDROLOGY...AMD  703 FXUS62 KCAE 160630 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 230 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. Little change in the overall forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. Little change in the thinking through the end of the week with a prolonged stretch of dry weather and well above- normal temperatures expected as a prominent upper level ridge and subtropical surface high remain in control through Saturday. Little day-to- day change is anticipated, with temperatures consistently rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. These values would be on the order of 10-15 degrees or more above climatological normal. Several daily records may be approached or tied, particularly on Friday and Saturday when highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. While guidance has steadily trended a couple of degrees cooler as this forecast has unfolded, temps on Wednesday were several degrees above guidance, so depending on how this trend plays out, the April monthly record of 96 F at CAE and AGS could be in play on Friday and especially Saturday. Key Message 2: A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. An upper trough over the central CONUS is expected to push eastward through the weekend, breaking down the upper ridge that has been parked over the area. This trough is also forecast to push a cold front toward and through the forecast area as well. Rain chances Sunday continue to look fairly limited given the lack of moisture convergence along the front and weak synoptic forcing aloft. A few showers are still possible, but any precip looks light with even the most aggressive solutions showing less 0.25"; the ECE and NAEFS members continue with only ~15% chance of over 0.1" for the area. The more notable impact looks to be increased fire danger once again, especially after the front passes. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range over the weekend and slightly lower on Monday. In addition to the near critical to critical RH values this weekend, breezy southwest winds on Saturday switch to west to northwest for Sunday as gusts reach 20-30 mph at times to end the weekend. Wind gusts diminish some for Monday as the front pushes further east of the area. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, as confidence continues to increase that cooler than average temps move into the forecast area to begin the work week. The current blended guidance shows an 80% or greater chance of highs topping out below average on Monday before a gradual warmup into to the middle part of the week. With the stretch of relatively warm temps, these temps might feel on the cool side. Continuing dry conditions, even with some rainfall possible Sunday, means drought conditions will worsen through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions persist. The region continues to be under the influence of the western Atlantic ridge with only a few passing higher clouds. Light winds through sunrise should increase by mid morning from the southwest with daytime mixing and winds around 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots expected through the afternoon. Winds will then diminish again with sunset. Cannot rule out some brief morning river fog at AGS/OGB but confidence not high enough to include in the forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  328 FXUS61 KILN 160631 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered precipitation chances for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms today. Well above normal will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level trough axis will progress east across the Ohio Valley through tonight. An axis of widespread showers and thunderstorms in association with this currently across Illinois and western Indiana will push slowly east through the morning hours. However, with a less unstable airmass across our area, expect these to weaken and begin to dissipate as they move east into our area later this morning. As a result, will just allow for some lower end chance pops across mainly our west later this morning. We will begin to destabilize again through the afternoon hours and this will allow for some scattered redevelopment along and ahead of the trough axis. The best chance for this appears to be across our eastern areas during the mid to late afternoon hours. Will go ahead and range pops this afternoon from 40-50 percent in the east to 20 percent across the west. With the better instability and forcing shifting off to our east through the afternoon, expect any severe threat across our east to be limited. Mid level ridging will move east across the region on Friday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a continuation of well above normal temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid and upper level troughing over the central CONUS will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the weekend. This will help push a strong cold front east across our area on Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. There are some timing differences between the models with the front on Saturday and this will help determine how much we are able to destabilize through the day. Given the strong forcing, there will at least be a low end threat for severe weather on Saturday but the overall threat will be dependent on the timing of the front and how well we are able to destabilize. As of now, it would seem the best severe threat would be across our eastern areas. Strong CAA behind the front will usher in a much cooler airmass to start next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley today. This will lead to a chance for showers later this morning and then scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be to the southeast of the I-71 corridor. It will be tough to rule out a few MVFR cigs later this morning and into this afternoon, but for the most part, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  347 FXUS62 KTBW 160633 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical RH values across the region the next few days. - Above average temperatures continue through the week. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Broad upper level ridging centered in the central Gulf ridges northeastward across Florida and along the eastern seaboard. On the surface, high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwest across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged until Sunday morning, when upper troughing digs into the Mississippi River Valley and a weak frontal boundary pushes through the southeast U.S. This will nudge the upper ridging and surface high slightly southward on Sunday and Monday. The weather through Sunday will be hot and rain-free each day. Daytime highs will reach the mid 80s to around 90 today, then widespread 90s for Friday through Sunday. Overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s each night. The next best chance of any rain will be next Monday afternoon as the weak front moves through the area, but will remain on the low side at around 10-20 percent. Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average expected for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure near Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping a persistent easterly wind flow 15 knots or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold front moves through the region on Monday, but rainfall will be limited with mostly rain-free conditions continuing. Winds and seas will increase in the wake of this front as strong high pressure builds in from the north producing a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting Monday morning and continuing through the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week and into the weekend. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next chance of any rainfall comes next Monday as a weak cold front moves through the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 88 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 84 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 57 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn  463 FXUS62 KMFL 160633 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Generally benign weather continues through the end of the week. Above average temperatures could be likely over the weekend. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Wednesday evening. - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Benign weather conditions will prevail through the short term period as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters. This ridge of high pressure will help continue to promote subsidence across South Florida; that, along with an anomalous mass of dry air aloft (as evidenced by the 00z MFL sounding and ACARS data from KMIA/KFLL/KPBI), will help inhibit any mentionable chances for precipitation across the area today. Some moisture will begin to filter in near the surface on Friday, which could allow for some nuisance showers to form over the local Atlantic waters and the immediate East Coast. However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected at this time. With easterly winds near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Friday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Conditions will remain generally unchanged over the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather early next week. Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for some moisture to filter back into the region, with models PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1- 1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially along any sea breeze boundaries that manage to develop. Conditions could begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week, clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. However, much uncertainty remains with this solution; a deeper, faster trough (and thus a stronger, faster front) could result in generally drier conditions for our area, while a slower, weaker trough could lead to higher QPFs for the region. For now, the NBM supports a slightly deeper, faster solution with 30-40% PoPs each day, and QPFs less than 1 inch. We will continue to monitor this solution as the forecast evolves. Above average temperatures will be likely this weekend as weak easterly flow prevails, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Easterly winds will persist, ranging from 5-10 kts early this morning, and increasing up to 10-15 kts late morning into the afternoon. At KAPF, a Gulf breeze will develop, with westerly winds moving ashore. Winds should become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong onshore flow will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 71 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 84 67 87 69 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 71 86 71 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 82 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 85 72 88 73 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 80 70 83 71 / 0 10 10 0 Boca Raton 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Naples 85 66 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV  868 FXUS63 KDTX 160633 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch: A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening. Several regional rivers are expected to reach or exceed flood stage. - Severe Potential: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today, capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts and hail. - Friday/Saturday Transition: Dry conditions on Friday will give way to rain and a chance of thunderstorms late Friday night through the first half of Saturday as a strong cold front moves through. - Weekend Cold Snap: Breezy and much colder Sunday with high temperatures stuck in the mid-to-upper 40s. A few snowflakes are possible. Temperatures dropping into the 20s for Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... A moist airmass remains in place with surface dew points predominantly in the lower 60s. The primary moisture axis, characterized by a Theta-E ridge and Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches, will slide east into the Eastern Great Lakes this morning as the leading Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) passes through. A shortwave and its associated surface low moving out of Iowa will track through central Lower Michigan today. This setup will support showers driven by deformation and low-level convergence near the surface low. Mid-level wind fields remain strong, with 45 to 55 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear noted over Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Surface CAPE is projected to reach 500 to 1000 J/kg with daytime heating; however, if showers are less prevalent and partial sunshine develops, instability could exceed these values. Consequently, an isolated severe threat is warranted, with marginal wind and hail being the primary concerns. With the surface low positioned over the northern half of the area this afternoon, there may be sufficient 0-1 km bulk shear (~20 knots) to support a tornado threat if instability increases beyond expectations, but chances look less than 2 percent. The Flood Watch continues, as storms will be efficient rain producers. With PW values remaining around 1.0 inch and soil already saturated, it will not take much additional rainfall to cause flooding issues. Much-needed dry weather arrives for Friday as ridging builds at all levels. This brief reprieve comes ahead of a potent next system that is expected to bring significant changes to the regional weather pattern. Saturday: Latest water vapor imagery highlights a large and potent upper-level low currently over the Pacific Northwest. The base of this trough will extend south into the Southern Plains late Friday, with the primary surface low tracking through the Western Great Lakes and into Northern Ontario by Saturday morning. This trajectory will allow a cold front to sweep through Southeast Michigan by early Saturday afternoon, which should effectively limit the severe weather threat and taper off showers as surface ridging builds in behind it. There is currently excellent model consensus (NAM, Canadian, Euro, and UKMET) regarding this frontal timing. Only a few Euro ensemble members are suggesting the development of a secondary low, which would be the only scenario that slows the frontal passage. Strong cold advection will lead to a chilly Sunday. Temperatures at the 850 MB level are projected to bottom out at or below -10°C by Sunday evening, which will keep surface high temperatures struggling to even exit the 40s during the day. Steep low-level lapse rates will also support isolated to potentially scattered rain or melting snow showers through Sunday afternoon. As skies clear and winds diminish Sunday night, temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s. Consequently, a Freeze Warning will likely be required for the region. && .MARINE... A trough moves into the area today maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms with an isolated storm mainly over the southern Great Lakes having the potentially to be severe. System peels away from the region late tonight ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30 knots. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential remains low (<30%). && .HYDROLOGY... Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through this evening. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage. Showers today, with embedded thunderstorms, will lead to localized heavy downpours. While most locations will receive less than 1 inch of rain, the primary concern is thunderstorm training (multiple storms moving over the same area). This could lead to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for significant flooding. Confidence in the exact placement of these heavier rain corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 AVIATION... Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the Tri-Cities with scattered coverage along a line moving across central lower Michigan. Focus for this activity will continue until about 09-10Z. Enough lightning activity is associated with the scattered activity so have gone with TEMPO groups with this TAF issuance. Anticipate that much of this activity will be weakening with time as it approaches the terminal corridor later tonight. Will have a low potential to see a brief period of MVFR conditions with any thunderstorm. Another chance for scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms develops again during the early afternoon. Predominately VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorm activity through today. The southwest to west winds will be turning northerly towards the evening as frontal boundary settles southward and brings at least some scattered low cloud potential. DTW/D21 Convection... Scattered convection moving across central Lower Michigan will move towards DTW closer to the 07Z to 09Z window presenting a chance at a brief thunderstorm. Activity appears like it will be weakening as it approaches. Severe threat appears low. Another period of thunderstorm potential remains worthy of a PROB30 for the afternoon. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft after 06Z tonight. * Low for thunderstorm tonight. Low to medium this afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....SF AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  795 FXUS64 KCRP 160634 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 134 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Very warm to hot conditions through Saturday. Much cooler Sunday/Monday - Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend with an approaching cold front. - Minor Coastal Flooding possible late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A progressive pattern remains across much of the US through the end of the week with upper level troughing across the central portion of the country. For South Texas, this will keep short wave energy near the area, but the majority of it will remain northwest through the end of the week, keeping only very low rain chances over the region - think isolated streamer showers in the morning, or a shower or two approaching western counties later in the day. Breezy conditions will persist in the afternoons, with Friday being the breeziest day as a cold front approaches Texas, increasing the pressure gradient. The aforementioned cold front will bring a big change this weekend. The front wont move through until Saturday afternoon and evening, so will keep a warm forecast for the day, but expect a sharp drop in temps as the front moves through with a 10-20 degree drop. Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as well, with medium chances through the afternoon and overnight. By Sunday into Monday, expect cooler than normal air near the surface with highs in the 60s. Easter to southeasterly winds above the surface will result in an isentropic lift pattern and light rain should persist into early next week. Very windy conditions are also expected on Sunday, especially in the Coastal Plains. A wind advisory may be necessary. Rainfall totals will remain generally under an inch, though isolated higher totals will be possible. We're continuing to keep an eye on coastal flooding potential for Friday into the weekend A gradual increase in tide levels is expected late in the week, and we could be looking at advisory level conditions Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 MVFR CIGs will prevail mainly across eastern sites through the mid to late morning hours, with only TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs out west. CIGs will scatter to VFR across the region around 16Z or so as breezy southeasterly winds return. Expect sustained winds between 10- 15 knots and gusts up to 25-30 knots to continue through the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through Thursday. A strong (BF 6) onshore flow is expected to develop across all marine zones on Friday with advisory conditions likely. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong late Saturday night into early Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through the end of the workweek but increase this weekend as the cold front moves across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The chance for wetting rains through the work week are very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend as a cold front moves across South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 88 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 95 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 74 83 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 95 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 74 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...KRS/98  033 FXUS62 KMFL 160635 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 235 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Generally benign weather continues through the end of the week. Above average temperatures could be likely over the weekend. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Friday evening. - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Benign weather conditions will prevail through the short term period as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters. This ridge of high pressure will help continue to promote subsidence across South Florida; that, along with an anomalous mass of dry air aloft (as evidenced by the 00z MFL sounding and ACARS data from KMIA/KFLL/KPBI), will help inhibit any mentionable chances for precipitation across the area today. Some moisture will begin to filter in near the surface on Friday, which could allow for some nuisance showers to form over the local Atlantic waters and the immediate East Coast. However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected at this time. With easterly winds near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Friday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Conditions will remain generally unchanged over the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather early next week. Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for some moisture to filter back into the region, with models PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1- 1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially along any sea breeze boundaries that manage to develop. Conditions could begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week, clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. However, much uncertainty remains with this solution; a deeper, faster trough (and thus a stronger, faster front) could result in generally drier conditions for our area, while a slower, weaker trough could lead to higher QPFs for the region. For now, the NBM supports a slightly deeper, faster solution with 30-40% PoPs each day, and QPFs less than 1 inch. We will continue to monitor this solution as the forecast evolves. Above average temperatures will be likely this weekend as weak easterly flow prevails, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Easterly winds will persist, ranging from 5-10 kts early this morning, and increasing up to 10-15 kts late morning into the afternoon. At KAPF, a Gulf breeze will develop, with westerly winds moving ashore. Winds should become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong onshore flow will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 71 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 84 67 87 69 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 71 86 71 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 82 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 85 72 88 73 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 80 70 83 71 / 0 10 10 0 Boca Raton 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Naples 85 66 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV  708 FXUS64 KMRX 160636 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 236 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible. - Chance of showers late today into tonight but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. - A cold front will bring a chance of showers/storms Saturday and Saturday night, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will sponsor hot and dry conditions through much of the day today. High temperatures will once again be in the 80s and will not be far off of record highs. Afternoon RH values will be low but not quite as low as recent days, dropping into the 30s across much of the area. However, winds will be a bit stronger with SW winds generally in the 10-15 mph range with higher gusts. It still looks borderline for any fire danger statement, but if one is deemed to be needed it will be issued during the morning hours when coordination with the forestry folks can occur. The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave trough approaching from the west late today that will move across our area during the night. We will see showers approaching from the west later today and these may move into at least western areas later in the afternoon with showers moving across the remainder of the area overnight. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts, providing little relief from the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. Right now, QPF values generally range from just a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Models show some limited instability (HREF mean MUCAPE values are generally around or less than 500 J/kg) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear looks too weak to suggest a severe threat. The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances will arrive by Saturday night as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ a bit more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 20% (south) to 50% (north/west) chance of seeing over a half inch of rain in a 24 hour period. A significant severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday behind the front, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 KMRX VAD Wind Profile shows winds near 2kft approaching 30kts once again this morning. Have included a period of LLWS for TYS and TRI. KHTX data is slightly less so LLWS has been left out of KCHA at this time. Another round of breezy southwest winds this afternoon, though, this afternoon will favor gusts at all three sites. Late tomorrow afternoon & evening some scattered showers will move across the area, especially the north. Have included some VCSH at TYS/TRI, with a prob30 including some TSRA at TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 89 61 / 20 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 85 59 / 30 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 85 58 / 40 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 54 / 10 60 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS  822 FXHW60 PHFO 160636 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 836 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system lingers far north of the Hawaiian Islands, supporting light and variable winds with chances for light, brief showers into Thursday. A passing high pressure system will bring a short return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from Thursday night into Saturday. Low pressure passing just north of the state will produce light southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week, with a possible increase in shower chances for at least portions of the state. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Bands of high level cirrus and middle level alto cumulus clouds continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands under the influence of a diverging upper level Sub Tropical Jet stream. Chances of showers in a light and variable wind pattern remain in the forecast through Thursday. Easterly trades will build back into the Hawaii region from Thursday night through Saturday with subtle drying trends. The forecast grids look good, no evening updates. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 This afternoon, mid- and high clouds associated with the subtropical jet aloft continue to stream across the islands. At the surface, weak southeasterly flow is prevailing, which has allowed for afternoon sea breeze-induced buildups of low clouds along select leeward and interior locations as well. With that said, rainfall has been quite light and sparse today, with 12 hour totals as of press time showing largely a couple hundredths of an inch at most. Light winds will linger into Thursday, maintained as low pressure north of the islands and the trailing front north of the islands moves northeast farther from the islands. Expect daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes through Thursday, with building clouds and brief showers over island interiors during the afternoon hours, followed by clearing each night. High pressure passing far north of the islands from Thursday night into Saturday will allow moderate easterly trade winds to briefly return to the region. These moderate trades will likely be strong enough to limit sea breeze development to terrain sheltered areas of the islands. Increasing stability and subsidence will also coincide with this period, initiating a slight drying trend. Global models continue to suggest that a low pressure system will develop north of the state by Sunday, though there remain some differences in timing and location. Winds will also veer back southerly across the islands, drawing moisture northward in the vicinity. As the previous discussions have mentioned, as of now the low appears to track far enough north to limit heavy rain potential over the islands, though increasing instability and shower chances are possible during the second half of the weekend and into the first of next week. While moisture availability appears to be a limiting factor at this time, upper troughing (and an eventual upper low) developing over the state, and at least some modest vertical motion during the first half of next week, warrant keeping an eye on the forecast for now. && .AVIATION... Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026 Mostly VFR through Thursday. Bands of mid-level precipitation continue moving northeast across the area this afternoon, but are not expected to create MVFR conditions. Generally light southeast winds today will become more easterly overnight and Thursday as trades return. No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected. && .MARINE... Troughing to the west maintains gentle to locally moderate ESE winds through Thursday. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the waters Friday into Saturday. Winds may briefly reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds on Saturday. A low pressure system developing to our NW on Sunday will cause the trades to weaken a notch and veer towards the ESE. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected Sunday into early next week. A small, short-period, NNW swell will fade out on Thursday. Small background energy from the west will be possible this weekend into early next week from Typhoon Sinlaku, but confidence remains low. A much larger northwest to west-northwest swell is possible towards the end of next week as Typhoon Sinlaku makes an extratropical transition early next week. A small to moderate, medium-period, SSE swell will boost surf along S shores through Friday then lower over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. Low pressure advancing S along the W coast of the US next week sends a small, medium period NE swell toward the islands by midweek. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bohlin PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Vaughan AVIATION...Parker MARINE...Kino  878 FXUS61 KBOX 160637 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 237 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Backdoor front returns once again, making it cooler near the coast with continued warmth inland through Friday. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. - Strong cold front moves through on Sunday bringing showers, perhaps ending as brief snow showers but of no impact. Blustery and anomalously cool temperatures for early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor front returns once again, making it cooler near the coast with continued warmth inland through Friday. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. Unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist through the latter half of this week, and a stronger shortwave approaches later tonight. The backdoor front that has been lingering around the region will dip back down again today, cooling the coast and ushering in more onshore flow. This front may make it as far inland as Worcester today, with temperatures further inland remaining much warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s are possible once more out in the CT Valley, parts of RI, and western MA. Closer to the coast, highs will likely top out in the 50s, increasing up to the low 70s as you move inland. This backdoor front should exit the region as its associated low moves offshore through the day Friday, and flow shifts more W initially as a separate front pushes through the region, then shifts more onshore for the afternoon/evening. With regards to the approaching shortwave, rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible once again tonight after sunset. The latest forecast soundings have not changed much, still indicating 0-6 km bulk shear at and above 40 knots, and mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km. The greatest instability remains over western MA and CT with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg with a window of surface-based CAPE in the late afternoon/early evening possibly overcoming CIN. Generally, though, most instability will be more elevated. So, the severe risk remains low, especially with LCL heights remaining above 1000 km. This area is still under a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather today, so remain weather aware this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong cold front moves through on Sunday bringing showers, perhaps ending as brief snow showers but of no impact. Blustery and anomalously cool temperatures for early to mid next week. A strong cold front will be working its way through the Northeast on Sunday, acting on a narrow but moist (PWATs around 1.2-1.4") warm sector. Showers, perhaps with a rumble or two of thunder, are likely with the front, which moves through during the daytime hours. The main story is what lies behind it: an anomalously cool airmass with 925 mb temps dropping to near 0C and 850 mb temps 0 to -5C by Sun night. Global models show the potential for backside snow showers as the front moves offshore; the airmass is just that cold where it is possible, but it remains to be seen if there is enough lingering precip as the colder air surges in behind the front to allow for snowflakes to mix in. No impacts with those snow showers were they to develop though. While dry, Monday looks blustery and anomalously cool for mid-April, with 925 mb temps around 0 to -2C, with northwest winds around 10-15 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. High temps in/around the high terrain in the low to mid 40s, with mid to upper 40s for eastern MA and RI. Winds decrease later in the day with clear skies, light winds setting stage for a pretty chilly night with subfreezing lows in most areas away from the cities. Anomalously cold air then begins to briefly recover starting Tuesday, though some indication for another weak disturbance in NW flow to reinforce another shot of cool air around midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update...Moderate confidence. Today and Tonight: Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move east across the region this morning amidst a mix of LIFR to VFR ceilings. VFR to MVFR ceilings possible in any RA/TSRA that moves through with visbys to IFR not ruled out in any heavier showers/storms. The main line pushing through should exit the region in the next 2 hours or so. Another line of showers following it will progress through over the next few hours as well. For the day today, improvement to VFR expected for most terminals, aside from western MA and central CT. Some may remain MVFR through much of the day, but periods of more scattered ceilings may give way to VFR midday in any areas where persistent MVFR is possible. SW winds today with E/NE winds to start closer to the coast. More scattered showers and storms possible again tonight. Friday: VFR with periods MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds shifting from the W/NW to NE as the day goes on. KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF. Though MVFR possible though most of today, periods of VFR possible if ceilings end up more SCT than BKN. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. Backdoor front meandering over southern New England through Fri AM will maintain light winds and calm seas, though there will be wind shifts from SW to NE from time to time on eastern MA waters along with showers and embedded thunderstorms. Brief periods of marginal Small Craft Advisory seas possible late tonight/early Fri AM over the southern outer waters, though not expected to be widespread. Passage of stronger cold Front Sun should bring SCA conditions to at least outer waters Sun into Mon. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Hrencecin AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin  148 FXUS65 KGGW 160637 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1237 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered rain showers will mix with and change to snow showers from NW to SE today. - Below normal temperatures are expected for today and Friday with persistent northwest gusty winds. - Expect a warming trend over the weekend and early next week with drier weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The next low pressure system and cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this morning. Northwest winds will increase behind the front this morning and a Lake Wind Advisory will remain in effect from 9 am to 9 pm today. Colder air will turn isolated to scattered rain showers into snow showers from NW to SE across the region. Some areas along the Canadian Border may receive an inch of snow from this system. Otherwise, Little or no accumulation is expected. Upper trough moves through the area tonight with the precipitation chances ending. Cold air remains over the area on Friday with NW flow aloft. After cold nights Thursday night and Friday night with lows in the teens and 20s. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer on Saturday as the coldest air moves to the east the bright April sun shines on the area. Upper ridge builds into the area starting on Sunday with dry and warmer weather that will continue for a few days. . FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Near term winds were adjusted with a blend of NBM90 following a period of decent cold air advection today and lowering heights with the approaching trough. Confidence is increasing on total precipitation remaining light overall today but remains below average on precipitation type and snowfall amounts near the Canadian border given marginal temperature thresholds. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0400Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: VFR will transition to MVFR and IFR at KGGW and KOLF this morning as low clouds move in behind a cold front. The MVFR ceilings may or may not reach KGDV and KSDY today. There will be rain showers at times that will either mix with or change into snow showers today with reduced visibilities at times. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected tonight with a mix of low and mid level clouds over the area. WIND: Either variable or NE winds early at 5 to 15 knots becoming NW 15 to 25 knots, gusting to 35 knots between 13z and 15z. NW winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots tonight. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  964 FXUS61 KAKQ 160640 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No major forecast changes. Another Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 11 AM-8 PM today for much of central/eastern Virginia and Northampton County, NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...3 KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure now centered off the SE CONUS coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the eastern Gulf coast to the Carolinas. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime today. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for another day of record to near record high temperatures. Today will be quite similar to yesterday, though with a bit more wind. SW winds will gust to 20-25 mph across much of the area from late morning-afternoon. Widespread lower 90s are expected, with temps a couple degrees cooler on the eastern shore (though it will still be warm here with the stronger SSW wind). Additional records may be tied or broken today (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry and NCFS yesterday (Wednesday), another Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 11 AM-8 PM from the VA Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. Today's SPS also includes all of the Peninsula and Suffolk given the slightly stronger SW wind. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC. The IFD statement roughly covers areas where 20-25 mph gusts are co-located with forecast min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little precip is expected and min RH values will be around 30% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Wind and RH values will once again be around critical thresholds on Saturday west of the bay (min RH of 25-30% and gusts to perhaps 15- 20 mph). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday, the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly. Not a whole lot of change in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The CAMs have little to no precip with the shortwave, though some of the global models (especially the ECMWF) show the potential for localized totals of ~0.10". Not really buying this solution given our drought status and the poor moisture return. Also, the ECMWF forecast dew pts are several degrees above consensus and it therefore has 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Regardless, will keep low PoPs for much of the area. Still think most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to likely (60-70%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. With the front crossing the area during the day, afternoon temps likely drop into the 60s (or even 50s depending on if/where it rains). This could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain continue to increase slightly (60- 80% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. While ensemble means show 0.10-0.20" of rain across much of the area on Sunday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Frost is possible well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 06z/16 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts of 20-25 kt lasting through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds diminish to ~10 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week with a brief surge in winds tonight into early Friday AM. - Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead and behind a strong cold front. Morning weather analysis shows high pressure remaing locked in placed off the Southeast coast. This is allowing winds to remain steady out of the SW between 10 to 15kt. Waves are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft with some occasional 4 ft seas south of the VA/NC border. Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail today through Saturday. Model guidance continues to hint on a stronger SW surge this evening into early Friday AM, with winds around 15 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt over the ocean. There is the potential that a few gusts may reach SCA criteria during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. However, given the extremely marginal winds and seas, no headlines have been issued during this forecast update. Confidence in SCA conditions increase Sunday into Monday as a much stronger cold front moves over the area. Stronger SW flow will increase ahead of the cold front Sunday. Ahead of this front there is the potential for some shower/storms. Then as the front moves through the winds will switch out of the NW. Recent guidance in the models continue to show decent CAA behind the front. There could be the potential with a brief period of 34kt gusts. Local wind probs have increased between 20-30% of gusts greater than 34kt gusts across the southern coastal waters. If these gusts do occur they will occur with the initial surge and passage of the cold front. These elevated marine conditions will quickly lower late Monday as the pressure gradient decreases. && .CLIMATE... New record highs were set yesterday, 4/15 for Richmond (93), Norfolk (91), and Salisbury (89). Record High Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096- 509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...HET CLIMATE...AJB  127 FXUS65 KBYZ 160640 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1240 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm system Tonight into Friday: Widespread rain transitioning to snow during the day Today. Snow accumulations confined to the foothills. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. - Active weather continues next week. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday... The longwave trough is digging into the intermountain west now and pushing a surface through northern MT. The trailing cold front is already entering the western part of the CWA at this time. Expect a stark wind shift to the NW and temps to rapidly cool behind the frontal push. Just ahead of the FROPA there is some signal for mountain wave activity in the foothills near Red Lodge. The timbercrest station just above the city is already seeing some wind gusts into the 40s mph. The waves should not be strong due to the 700mb flow only being around 40 to 50 kts. That being said though, the flow of the 700mb winds are perpendicular to the NE face of the Beartooth/Absarokas. Additionally, the subsidence ahead of the front is very pronounced and should be able to force down some wind gusts with assistance of the stable layer forecast to set up just at the mountaintops. Some members of the HREF (primarily the HRW) do bring 50 to 60 mph gusts into Red Lodge, however, it appears that 40 mph gusts are more likely. That is not to say that a stray gust off a particularly high amplitude and strong wave could not touch the 50s mph. The setup for the east side of the Bighorns (Sheridan, WY) is slightly less favorable for the development of any waves. The 700mb wind will be too southwesterly and not strong enough. There still wil be strong subsidence so a gust into the 30s mph ahead of the FROPA this morning is not out of the question in the immediate foothills. Turning the attention over to the precipitation, we are already seeing a good amount of pre-frontal showers across the western half of the CWA just due to CVA ahead of the potent trough. As the front pushes through, the precipitation will become much more widespread this morning. Temperatures, and therefore snow levels, are forecast to quickly drop during the day today. While most of the region has snow levels around 6 kft at tis time, by noon the western 2/3 of the CWA should be seeing snow as the predominat form of precip with the whole area seeing snow by this evening. With how warm we have been over the past week or so, it will be quite hard for this snow to accumulate unless it is coming down particularly heavy and/or for an extended period of time. This is why the accumulation should be limited to the mountains and foothills. Over the past 24 hours the snow and precip totals have remained relatively steady. What has changed a little bit is the high end amounts for most of the foothills have come down. This just appears to be due to the models coming into better agreement that the surface winds should not shift east of north. This setup is not favorable for locations like the foothills west of Sheridan, WY but weak enhancement could still produce 1-3" totals with localized higher amounts; especially near Story. These north- northwesterly winds are not all bad news for the snow lovers though. Some locations can stil get good upslope with this flow including the Paradise Valley. While models still disagree a couple 10s of degrees on wind direction, there is a consensus that some form of northerly component of wind will blow up the valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Due to the westerly component though, it appears that locations east of US-89 will likely pick up far more snow than areas to the west. This type of setup could result in very localized areas of heavier snow in places like Pine Creek or Chico where the NBM 90th shows 10" totals. Red Lodge also will not be completely skipped by this upslope either. While not as favorable as a NNE wind, the primarily northerly component will still mean that there will be upslope winds into the area. So while the 90th percentile is no longer 11" as it was showing yesterday, the town of Red Lodge could pick up 5" when this is all said and done. It is also worth noting that due to the complex terrain west of Billings, some locales may see an inch or two more than the advertised forecast while some may see an inch or two less with these differences potently within a few miles of each other. The other concern with the snow will be the potentially reduced visibility due to blowing snow as it falls. The greatest areas of concern would be Sheridan Co. WY, particularly south of the city of Sheridan, and SE Carbon Co. MT nar Belfry. Both of these areas are in locations favorable to see enhancement of the winds due to wind's orientation in relation with the surrounding terrain. The forecast wind gusts have come down a bit over the past few runs to where our official forecast is now advertising gusts in the low 30s mph which will limit any visibility reductions. Also the snow will probably be on the heavier side (less than 10:1) which should limit any blowing as well. That being said, prepare for reductions in visibility in these areas tonight. After this system exits during the day Friday, ridging quickly builds back into the entire intermountain west. This will allow for temperatures to quickly rebound back to above average for the entire weekend as well as keep the entire region dry. With these warm temperatures, expect any snow that accumulates outside the mountains (below 6 kft) to quickly melt. By Sunday, the high temperatures for locations near Billings may be back in the 70s again. Looking ahead to the middle of next week, all models and their ensembles continue to show a high amplitude trough dig into the west coast. There is still disagreement around what this will look like (ie. cutoff or progressive) but it is safe to say that another potentially impactful system could be here by this time next week. WMR .AVIATION... 06z TAF Discussion...A cold front is approaching western zones at 05z and will move through the western half of the forecast area in the overnight hours, working through the rest of the area Thursday morning. West/southwest winds will be gusty ahead of the front especially along the foothills where gusts in the 40kt range are possible. Where low level inversion is strong enough, low level wind shear can be expected. As the front moves through winds will shift to the northwest and stronger foothills gusts will diminish. Isolated embedded low top thunderstorms are possible along the front as it moves through the area overnight. Precipitation type will be mainly rain for the first 6 hours or so behind the front shifting to a rain/snow mix. A shift to all snow is expected for the western foothills by 12z, central zones by 18z, and in the east Thursday evening as snow levels drop from west to east. Widespread west to northwest gusts of 20 to 35 kts will continue behind a cold front into the afternoon. Scattered rain showers, becoming snow showers, may impact all TAF sites through the TAF period. The highest confidence (80%) in impacts is over the mountains and along the foothills, including KLVM and KSHR. Ceilings and visibilities will be reduced to MVFR/IFR under the heaviest showers. The Absaroka/Beartooth foothills are most likely to see impacts through early this evening and the Bighorn foothills from late this morning through late evening. Expect mountain obscuration. Archer/Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 046 026/049 028/060 034/072 043/078 045/080 048/072 9/W 54/J 20/U 00/U 00/B 01/U 24/W LVM 040 021/042 021/056 030/067 037/072 042/074 043/064 9/J 67/T 30/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 35/W HDN 049 023/050 026/061 031/073 038/079 042/082 047/075 7/W 44/J 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/U 24/W MLS 052 023/042 023/055 030/070 040/076 043/080 049/072 4/W 20/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 4BQ 052 025/043 024/054 030/069 040/077 044/080 048/073 6/W 51/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 23/W BHK 054 022/038 018/050 025/066 037/073 040/075 044/069 5/W 41/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W SHR 048 020/042 021/054 028/067 035/075 041/077 043/071 9/T 86/J 31/U 00/U 00/B 11/U 24/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 40-56-64>66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 138. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 171. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 199. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 198. && $$ weather.gov/billings  970 FXUS66 KLOX 160641 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1141 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1124 PM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/859 PM. ***UPDATE*** Today was a rather typical day with mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures from about 1 to 5 degrees below normal. Northwest to west winds were below advisory levels through the area, with some breezy spots in the Antelope Valley and foothills. Sundowner winds have developed over the western Santa Ynez Range tonight, but should to remain below advisory levels with gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected. Otherwise, expect to see patchy fog in the Salinas River Valley and possibly the LA Basin briefly during the early morning hours. Going into Thursday morning, winds will increase and turn offshore, with the strongest gusts near the I-5 corridor and Antelope Valley. This will likely lead to warming some warming near the coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories were issued for the Central Coast as afternoon winds increase, with gusts to 35 mph expected. As winds shift to the northeast Thursday evening, they strengthen further, and wind advisories were issued to cover these. Will likely need wind advisories Thursday night for the Antelope Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana prone areas by Friday morning. ***From Previous Discussion*** A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to 2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM. There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well. && .AVIATION...16/0640Z. At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 18 C. Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through 17Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high confidence in TAFs. There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions develop between 07Z-16Z Thursday at KSMX (30%) and KPRB (20%), and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%). KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, and again after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-015 conds between 07Z-16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 5 kt 10-15Z each morning. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...15/805 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Thursday afternoon thru Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued for all Outer water zones. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Lund MARINE...RAT/DB SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  068 FXUS63 KPAH 160642 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this morning (40-80% chances), with slightly lower chances (30-55%) from midday into early this evening. - Scattered showers and storms return Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), then chances will increase significantly late Friday night into Saturday (70-85% chances) with the approach and passage of a cold front. - High temperatures will be near record readings Friday ahead of the cold front. - A significant cool down is expected over the weekend, then we will see a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms (40-80% chances) will persist through the morning hours today ahead of an upper level wave moving toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Scattered convection (30-60% chances) will continue develop in the heat of the day from midday into early this evening until the upper wave pushes east of the region. Dry conditions can be expected late tonight into Friday morning. On Friday, near record high temperatures are expected as south winds increase ahead of a cold front. Forecast highs are in the 83 to 87 degree range, with current records in the 86 to 89 degree range. Clouds/convection will play a big part in whether any locations can tie or break a record. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), with more organized convection arriving by late Friday night into Saturday with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Chances by late Friday night into Saturday morning will increase to 70-85%. The highest chances late Friday night will be focused across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, by Saturday morning across the entire area, then by late Saturday afternoon across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Small chances of showers (20% west to 45% southeast) will linger into Saturday evening, with a stray shower still possible late Saturday night from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. Rainfall totals from Friday afternoon through Saturday night will generally be from a third to around three quarters of an inch. Much cooler conditions will follow the cold front with breezy northwest winds. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, lows Saturday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs Sunday in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure will move to our east Sunday night, shifting winds back to the south. A warming trend will begin Monday, with near normal temperatures Monday, and well above normal temperatures by Wednesday. Models show a weak cold front approaching our area from the north by mid week, producing small chances (15-25%) of showers and storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Area of SHRA/TSRA to the west will weaken as it approaches and moves across the terminals. Highest probability for TSRA will be at CGI and PAH with PROB30 groups elsewhere. A break is expected after 12Z before additional shower activity develops at CGI/PAH between 15-18Z. A few guidance shows isolated TSRA development in the afternoon in SEMO and W KY. Confidence is too low at this time to include mention. Winds will remain from the south through the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...AD  693 FXUS63 KMQT 160643 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 10 am EDT Thursday for the MQT County Warning Area. - The threat for flooding continues due to snowmelt. A Flood Watch is in effect for everywhere except the far western UP through tonight. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday evening into Saturday early morning. Widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected, with up to 30% probability of exceeding an inch, best chances over the south half. - Some stronger storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible Friday night. - Becoming much cooler this weekend, which will slow snowmelt. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Early morning RAP analysis reveals anomalous midlevel ridging over the eastern third of the CONUS and a deep, compact trough over the Pacific Northwest. Between these features, a compact shortwave trough is rippling through MN and WI. At lower levels, a broad surface low is tracking into southern WI with a diffuse frontal boundary extending northeast of it into the central LP. Convection along this boundary has remained well to our south, but as the surface low continues to make its way into Lower Michigan through the early morning hours, it is not out of the question for us to get grazed by some light rain. Otherwise, the main concern for tonight remains our potential for dense fog. Nighttime microphysics shows plenty of either fog or low stratus across the central and eastern UP - and ground truth is starting to catch up with ASOS sites starting to drop across the eastern 2/3 of the UP. While the western UP has yet to see any fog development, clear skies, light winds, and saturated lower levels spells out a good potential for this to develop there as well. A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through this morning across the entire UP. Shortwave ridging over the area today will allow for a quiet day with clearing skies across most of the area soon after sunrise. That said, onshore flow over the north-central and eastern UP should keep in cloud cover for longer there. As the airmass remains anomalously warm (850 mb temps around 10C or +1 to +2 sigma), unseasonable warmth will occur where clouds clear and deeper mixing happens, with a high chance of temps in the 70s and a low chance of approaching 80 in some spots in the interior-western UP. Meanwhile in the east, clouds hanging on longer and potential for onshore flow will keep things significantly cooler, with areas along the lakeshore likely remaining below 50F. Friday, ridging builds ahead of the Pac NW trough shifting across the northern Plains. A strong capping inversion should keep things dry until the front arrives and crosses the UP from west to east roughly 00-06Z Sat. Another very warm day is expected in the west half, while it will be a bit cooler with flow off Lake Michigan in the east half. GFS/NAM indicate elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg with strong deep layer shear, so a few stronger storms resulting in hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Anomalous moisture with PWATs of 1-1.25 inches will be in place, but the quick movement of the trough is expected to limit QPF to 0.25-0.75" in most areas. However, potential for a wave to develop along the front would prolong rainfall a bit, which could result in higher precip amounts (20-30% chance of exceeding an inch in southern locations). A sharply colder airmass will move in for the weekend with temperatures back below normal. Lingering precipitation into Saturday morning changes over to snow, though impactful accumulations are not expected. By Saturday evening, temperatures aloft turn cool enough that we may just be able to pick up on some lake effect snow (note in soundings a steepening inversion height and a saturated DGZ). However, dry air above and below the DGZ prove a limiting factor in snowfall amounts, which remain well below an inch Saturday night. Temperatures begin to trend warmer again into next week, with a mainly dry period ahead courtesy of ridging over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Warm and moist southerly flow accompanied by the snowmelt is supplying ample low level moisture. Low stratus and fog noted by regional satellite is only lowering viz at CMX as of 06z, but could plague IWD/SAW (moreso SAW) through the early morning. As has been seen the last few nights, any fog/stratus will lift to MVFR/VFR through the late morning to early afternoon. Light winds <15 kts are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Light, stable flow is expected through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient over the area. Areas of dense fog are expected through at least this evening. Southerly winds will develop and increase on Friday ahead of a deepening low pressure, with a 30-50% chance for brief gales over the eastern lake Friday evening. With stable southerly flow, the highest winds will be observed on high observing platforms. This low will push through over the weekend bringing a cold front and the potential for northwesterly gales (around 50% chance Saturday into Sunday). NW winds slowly decrease throughout the day Sunday, then winds across the entirety of the lake will briefly be below 20kts early Monday while shifting over to the south. Winds become elevated again Monday evening through Tuesday as low pressure moves through Ontario. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 NOHRSC analysis showed the the snowpack had eroded over much of the southern and far western U.P. Over the north and east several inches to over a foot of SWE remained, greatest in the higher terrain. Snowmelt will continue through the week and accelerate late in the week as a warm, moist airmass moves into the U.P. An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through late Friday into Friday night with 0.25-0.75 inches expected for most areas, and a 20-30% of exceeding an inch in the southern UP. Colder weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday which should slow the melt of any remaining snow. Waters remain high in the southern UP where recent heavy rains and snowmelt contributed to flooding of low-lying areas and some rivers. Rivers will continue to rise in portions of the northern UP due to continued snowmelt and additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night for all but the far western UP, and may be extended through Friday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ001-003>007-010>014- 084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC/Thompson AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC/Thompson HYDROLOGY...  090 FXUS61 KBTV 160643 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 242 AM EDT Thursday... While high-res modeled ingredients for severe storms look more favorable today, the stationary frontal boundary is located farther south than anticipated, which could make it difficult for the expected instability and warmth to materialize this afternoon for central Vermont. Based on this, no major changes to the thunderstorm forecast this afternoon, but have included the mention of gusty winds in the forecast with stronger storms. Confidence has also increased for some fog, mist, and/or drizzle tonight, similar to last night. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 242 AM EDT Thursday... 1. Rounds of showers expected today after fog and low clouds lift this morning, with heightened thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont this afternoon and evening. Please stay weather- aware and have a method of receiving Watches and Warnings. 2. Additional showers, mist, drizzle, and fog may make for hazardous travel again tonight, then the boundary finally clears out of our area Friday. Please use caution when driving in low visibilities. 3. Rainy and windy weather is expected for the latter half of the weekend as another frontal system impacts the region. Brief mountain snow is possible late Sunday into Sunday night with a cold frontal passage. 4. Much colder but dry to start next week, though trending warmer with chances of rain by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 242 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A stalled frontal boundary located across the southern portion of our forecast area this morning is bringing light showers, mist, drizzle, low clouds, and patchy dense fog this morning in light winds and abundant moisture. Visibilities are poorest (1/4 to 2 miles) across the northern tier of our forecast area, north of the boundary. Later this morning, after showers move out of the region and fog gradually mixes out, we anticipate a dry period ahead of our next low pressure system, and the stationary boundary is expected to shift northward, drawing warmer air into the northern New York and Vermont. in southern and central Vermont, as well as portions of the Adirondacks and southern Champlain Valley, there should be some areas of clearing, allowing temperatures to rise into the 70s (well above seasonal averages), with highs in the 60s remaining closer to the international border and on mountains. An area of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary this afternoon and evening, bringing multiple rounds of showers. The HREF continues to be aggressive with instability in the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont with about 65-85% chance of 500+ J/kg CAPE and 45- 65% chance of 1000+ J/kg CAPE as dew points are expected to rise to around 60 F. NAM3K also shows most unstable CAPE/MUCAPE at around 1600-1800 J/kg, which could assist in the production of hail. One fly in the ointment for severe development is that the stationary boundary may not make it very far north in time for the main forcing to come through this afternoon, which could have us underperform in warmth and instability. However, HREF mean 0-6 KM shear continues to look dynamic with 45-60 knots, and 0-1 KM SRH between 70-220 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM SRH between 180-310 m2/s2 also support this. NAM3K suggests Effective Bulk Wind Difference around 55-60 knots. Due to the favorable ingredients, isolated to scattered severe storms are possible across southern Vermont. The main threat would be damaging winds, though large hail is possible as well. Due to the relatively fast motion of the storms, flash flooding is not expected despite modest projected precipitable water values around 1.20-1.40". KEY MESSAGE 2: Another night of showers, mist, drizzle, and fog is likely tonight as the front sinks back southward across the forecast area. One thing we're not seeing as much of tonight is a strong atmospheric inversion trapping moisture that was present this morning. However, the moisture (precipitable water values 1.00- 1.50") looks to linger, and models continue to suggest at least a minor inversion setting up for a portion of tonight. Temperatures tonight will also be largely similar to last night, with lows in the upper 40s and 50s, fairly mild for this time of year. On Friday, the frontal boundary haunting the region with moisture looks to finally shift southwards and into the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the day. This means dramatically decreasing chances of showers and temperatures remaining above normal with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Temperatures will warm on a 50-55 knot southerly 850 mb jet ahead of the front, allowing highs to rise into the 60s and lower 70s. Efficient mixing will bring windy conditions Saturday afternoon into the overnight as the core of the jet moves overhead. Southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely Saturday and Saturday night, with locally higher gusts possible in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. The cold front is expected to move through late Saturday night into early Sunday, resulting in temperatures at their warmest Saturday evening, then falling slowly throughout the day Sunday in brisk westerly winds after the frontal passage. Rain showers are most likely Saturday evening through Sunday morning, coming to an end from west to east Sunday evening and night as drier air flows in following the frontal passage. As the showers end, they may change over briefly to snow showers as temperatures fall into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Little to no snow accumulation is expected, particularly below summit levels, as the atmosphere should dry out quickly before temperatures fall too low. KEY MESSAGE 4: Following a cold front on Sunday, a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region for the start of next week with perhaps some snow shower chances on Monday. Brisk northwest flow will draw cooler and drier Canadian air as high pressure begins to shift east out of the Great Lakes. A trailing shortwave on the backside of a departing trough will shift south on the leading edge of the high with a few chances for snow showers in the higher terrain. With 925mb temperatures Monday to -5C to -9C, sfc highs will struggle to reach 40 areawide, with the higher terrain hugging the freezing mark. The GFS model progs the 520dam line to sag south into the Mohawk Valley of New York and southern Vermont further supporting cold surface temperatures and cool enough mid level atmospheric profiles to support a saturated thin DGZ. Snow growth will be limited, however, due to a low equilibrium level to 700mb and a significantly dry low level. Any snow showers that do form will likely fall as virga for most of the region, outside of the higher summits. Towards mid week, model agreement decreases rapidly with the placement of several troughs associated with an upper low. Though, do anticipate some increasing precipitation chances as moisture returns to the area with temperatures on the cool side. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Changeable conditions will continue tonight with winds light and variable with a stationary boundary just to the south of the region. Areas of low clouds north of the boundary are leading to pockets of IFR to LIFR with some light showers moving eastward. Visibilities are not quite as low as last night varying at times between 1/2SM to 4SM. To the south and east, low clouds have not materialized at RUT/MPV, but are expected to trend towards MVFR, with perhaps some brief IFR closer to sunrise. All in all, confidence is highest in IFR closer to the International Border where detachment from the boundary is largest with saturated low levels. MSS/EFK/BTV will be the most likely to see periods of IFR/LIFR tonight, however, current observations denote an area of VFR across the Adirondacks and CPV. While the GLAMP denotes prolonged IFR, trends upstream show increasing ceiling from the southwest in the aforementioned areas. Once the drizzle and rain clears closer to sunrise between 10-13Z, the expectation remains for most terminals to return to at least MVFR with brief IFR, before trending back to VFR between 14-16Z. Similar to yesterday, south/southwest winds will develop late this morning with improving aviation conditions. Some light showers may be possible closer to 16-18Z across northern New York, but the main terminal impacts this afternoon will be possible thunderstorms, timing details for these storms will become better for the 12Z TAF package. Outlook... Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm AVIATION...Danzig  054 FXUS64 KFWD 160651 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. - Additional chances for rain are expected the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A much quieter couple of days is in store for North and Central Texas as we head into the latter half of the week. The majority of our earlier storms have fully exited the region to the northeast, with a few lingering light showers in East Texas and a rogue storm still tracking east south of the I-20 corridor. This activity will continue to shift east as its upper-level shortwave swings through the Midwest. All remaining rain should come to an end later this morning as upper-level ridging builds into the region in the wake of the departing shortwave. With the dryline remaining to our west and subsident air increases overhead, expect this afternoon to be fairly warm in the 80s to near 90 in some spots. A deepening upper low currently located in the PAC-NW will traverse along the US-Canada border going into Friday, with shortwaves digging further south into the Plains as the system as a whole moves east. This will offset the ridge and send a strong cold front southward through the Plains on Friday. This front is not expected to impact the region until the overnight hours into Saturday, so Friday will be another warm day as we remain east of the dryline. A lee-side low is expected to develop and shift into the Panhandles by the afternoon, promoting increasingly breezy conditions with gusts to 25-35 mph in the afternoon. We may observe a few showers and storms in our northwest on Friday as increased lift out ahead of the incoming system spreads further east into Texas and Oklahoma, and have continued to advertise isolated chances during the day. Just how much convective initiation we will see is uncertain as most CAMs and medium resolution guidance have an elevated cap in place during the afternoon, which would ultimately inhibit storm development. However, we will need to remain cognizant as forecast soundings show efficient instability and shear along with steep lapse rates in the warm sector environment. All this being said: during the day most of us will likely remain dry, but if a storm is able to develop and break through the cap, it would have the potential to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The highest severe threat is currently displaced to our north closer to the triple point of the surface low and various surface boundaries/fronts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The front will move through North and Central Texas overnight into Saturday morning, bringing cooler conditions and gusty north winds. With ample moisture out ahead of the incoming boundary, showers and storms are expected to develop along and behind the front through Saturday as it advances south. While the overall severe threat with the frontal activity is low, the aforementioned pre-storm environment in the short term discussion above would allow for the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe storms along the front mainly capable of hail and wind gusts. Again, the higher severe threat remains out of our CWA to the north where better lift resides. Anything that lingers behind the front would be elevated in nature, with potentially some small hail falling out of any more robust cores. Post-frontal showers will gradually shift south of our area, eventually coming to an end by Sunday. Sunday morning is progged to be the coolest part of the forecast, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler post- frontal conditions in the 60s and 70s are expected to persist into this next week, though building ridging will call for a warm up towards the end of the forecast. Additional chances for rain continue to be present the first half of next week as shortwave disturbances travel across the Plains, but it is too early to go into specifics. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A much quieter 24-30 hours is in store at the airports. VFR will prevail for the next handful of hours before a deck of MVFR stratus spreads across the TAF sites just prior to daybreak (10-11Z). MVFR cigs will persist through the morning, gradually lifting and scattering back to VFR by the afternoon. Southerly winds between 10- 15 kts and SCT low clouds around 3-4 kt will generally prevail the rest of the period. Another stratus deck will spread across the airports Friday morning, but is just beyond the extended TAF and will be included in later issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 67 85 58 / 0 10 10 50 Waco 85 66 86 60 / 0 0 0 20 Paris 83 65 83 56 / 10 10 10 50 Denton 86 66 83 53 / 0 10 10 60 McKinney 85 66 83 56 / 0 10 10 60 Dallas 88 67 85 57 / 0 10 10 50 Terrell 85 66 85 60 / 0 10 10 40 Corsicana 87 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 87 66 88 62 / 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 88 65 85 53 / 10 10 10 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  230 FXUS61 KCAR 160651 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 251 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Added patchy to areas of fog Friday night into Saturday AM. - Increasing probability of rain changing to snow Sunday night into Monday AM across Northern Maine. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain is expected from late this afternoon into late tonight with a third to a half inch. This will contribute to continued rises on the rivers. 2) Areawide rain Sunday changes to snow Sunday night into Monday morning across Northern Maine leading to the potential of slick Monday AM commute. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain is expected from late this afternoon into late tonight with a third to a half inch. This will contribute to continued rises on the rivers. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Spotty showers and patchy drizzle will be possible anytime today. A small wave of low pressure will then approach from the Great Lakes later today spreading steadier rain across the area late this afternoon and continuing tonight. Amounts around a third of an inch are likely across the north and Downeast with a band of just over a half inch possible across central areas through tonight. The rain, combined with some additional snowmelt from the headwaters of the northern rivers, will contribute to additional rises on the rivers. However, most of the ice has washed out of these rivers and flooding is not anticipated. The rain may result in some ponding in low lying areas and rises of small streams. Rain should end late tonight over the north and early Friday morning Downeast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Areawide rain Sunday changes to snow Sunday night into Monday morning across portions of the area leading to the potential of slick Monday AM commute. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... During the day Sunday a potent parent storm system will lift north out of the Great Lakes into Ontario then Quebec dragging an occluded front into New England. A strong 500mb shortwave will dig south dragging significantly colder air in its wake with large scale upper level divergence overhead leading to surface convergence. As the front pushes towards Maine during the morning hours rain will develop across the area Sunday AM and last throughout the day. Expecting generally 0.3-0.7 inch of rain during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening but cannot rule out higher amounts up to 1 inch. This will allow for continued slow rise of area rivers/streams but flooding is not expected. Sunday night significant agreement in global model guidance of a surface low developing on a triple point across the Gulf of Maine waters near the Maine coast. As this happens and the occluded front slides through expecting Sunday night a significant surge of colder air with a moist DGZ. As the boundary layer cools to near freezing precipitation will change from rain to snow across Northern Maine especially in the North Woods to St. John Valley first then eventually reaching much of the CWA. The uncertainty lies in how much precipitation will be available behind FROPA and how quick the cold air works into the region. GFS is slower on the cold air while ECMWF/Canadian is much faster but the GFS has more QPF available with the ECMWF/Canadian with less. The potential exists for accumulating snow especially in Northern Maine with rain mixing with snow as far south as the Bangor Region to Interior Downeast. NBM probabilities of accumulating snow are increasing but with the numerous uncertainties still on the low side. Will continue to monitor the trends as we get closer to this event. Temperatures will be falling below freezing for most areas from Bangor to Calais along The Airline northward to the St. John Valley which may lead to black ice simply from refreezing wet roadways. This could lead to a slick Monday AM commute even if there is no snowfall. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today...LIFR all sites in very low clouds and fog. Winds SE around 5 kt. Tonight...LIFR in low clouds and fog. Light and variable wind. Friday...LIFR, improving to IFR around midday, then MVFR during mid afternoon and finally VFR by late afternoon from north to south. Winds N 5 to 10 kt. Saturday...MVFR cigs in the AM at southern terms. AM IFR/LIFR vsby with FG possible at BGR and BHB. Otherwise VFR the rest of the day for all terms. S-SE winds 5-15kt. Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with LIFR possible. RA BR/FG possible. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt possible at northern terms. Sunday...MVFR/IFR likely with RA. S winds 5-15kt shifting W late day. Sunday night...MVFR/IFR likely. RA changes to SN at northern terms. RASN mix for BGR and RA at BHB. Winds shift NW 5-15kt. Monday...MVFR becoming VFR. SHSN possible. NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt possible. && .MARINE... Winds will be below SCA today, tonight and Friday and seas around 3 ft. Fog will likely limit vsby at times today and tonight with vsby improving on Friday. Winds/seas below SCA conditions through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night winds increase and gust >25kt with seas building to 4-6ft. Winds/seas fall back below SCA conditions by Monday night. Fog may reduce vsby Sat AM, then rain/fog will reduce vsby Sat night into Mon AM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001>006. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MB/JS AVIATION...MB/JS  844 FXUS63 KTOP 160652 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning has been issued for north central Kansas areas for this afternoon. - Severe storms possible Friday afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves into the area. All hazards possible with a 15-30% chance for severe storms to impact any one area. All severe hazards will likely be possible especially over eastern areas. - Cooler overnight and early morning temperatures set up Saturday and Sunday morning. Sunday looks to be the overall best setup with clear skies and calm conditions into the overnight and early morning hours. - Elevated fire weather may still occur Saturday over north central areas if the winds are strong enough. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The mid to upper level trough that brought severe weather to areas off to east last evening has lifted to the northeast of the area and continues to dampen as it works into the western Great Lakes region. A broad cyclonic flow pattern remains over the western CONUS with a southern stream trough digging into the Baja region. Meanwhile, the more important feature for the Friday time frame across the area is the Pacific northwest low spinning over the northwestern CONUS at this hour. This system will continue to deepen and dig into the central and northern Rockies over the next day and half. The weak modified cold front that moved through the area last evening has stalled as it has been detached from the dampening upper flow. It is effectively just to the southeast of the area extending through southeastern Kansas into south central KS and northern OK. The dryline is further southwest into the TX/OK panhandle areas. The main hazards of focus are now fire weather for this afternoon over north-central areas (see fire weather section for details) and then severe potential for Friday afternoon into the evening. Friday appears to have only minor changes from run-to-run forecasts of the longer range guidance and the majority of CAMS are hinting that conditions will be favorable by mid afternoon at the latest for storms to fire along a strong cold front with plenty of upper level dynamic support with DCVA generally on the rise coinciding with the strongest lift near the surface from the front. Any cap should be breached fairly early in the day with strong low to mid and upper level shear. As theta-e advection increases overnight Thursday into the Friday morning time frame, low level moisture increases which should provide sufficient moisture needed for buoyancy to increase quickly with heating. Expect early updrafts to be quick and powerful likely realizing ample environmental shear to produce some instances of very large hail. As storms grow upscale, the low level shear may quickly allow for bowing segments to form with strong damaging wind being a possible hazard along with tornadoes. Tornadoes may also be possible with early storms especially before supercells become outflow dominant but right now my primary concern with that scenario is that if the surface winds are more southerly to slightly southwesterly then tornado producing storms will rely more heavily on localized backing of the winds to become established likely from some type of outflow from a failed updraft or other local circulation. If the dryline is the to southwest then this is hard to see at this time. This highlights the importance of the outlook phase being just that, and outlook phase of possibilities since the mesoscale environment in the short-term can't really be predicted with a high level of certainty this far out. Then training of storms will also be on the menu of options due to parallel flow with the orientation of the upper trough to the low level and surface winds. Into the weekend, Sunday may be the focus period for early morning cool/cold temperatures especially across northern areas as clear skies and calm conditions allow for frost or freeze conditions to setup. Then, the into next week, a western ridge translates east across the area. This will favor height rises and overall warming temperatures but remain in the 70s and 80s so still above normal temperatures favored before another western trough looks to emerge from the Rockies by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 No significant changes to the going forecast for this period. The low stratus in the morning is still low confidence as the BL cools and winds calm overnight there could be a shallow layer of stratus that begins to return from the south with low level moisture not scoured out very much with the weak cold front that passed through last period. Did bump up winds for this afternoon slightly as mixing commences and the pressure gradient tightens from west to east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A Red Flag Warning has been issued for north central Kansas areas for this afternoon due to minRH values dropping to the upper teens as mixing deepens and the pressure gradient tightens through the afternoon. Winds will gust to around 30 mph at times but remain out of a southerly direction. Expect critical rangeland fire conditions to set up as 1 hr fuels are expected to drop below 10 which would cause fuels to burn very efficiently. Friday, showers and strong to severe storms are expected across eastern areas along a cold front that moves from northwest to southeast across the area. Elevated fire weather conditions may return on Saturday to north central areas but wind overall may be lower across the area generally out of the NNW. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake FIRE WEATHER...Drake  028 FXUS62 KRAH 160656 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 255 AM Thursday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 255 AM Thursday... 1) Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... As of 255 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit today. Strong heating with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected. This will aid the mixing process by late morning with SW winds expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph by noon, then 15 to 25 mph this afternoon through 600 PM. Peak gusts up to 30-32 mph are expected. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty light. Fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend into next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. See records below. Strong ridging will persist overhead with only a brief brush with mid/upper troughing expected to pass mainly north of our region Thursday night through Friday morning, moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday afternoon. A period of mostly mid and high clouds is expected during that period since the trough will be moisture starved and brushing by during the late night and morning hours. The temperatures may be a degree or two cooler on Friday - but the downslope WNW flow in the afternoon with clearing skies should really offset that. Expect highs Friday and Saturday similar to the highs today. Fortunately, it is still April and the humidity looks tolerable if not comfortable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the 50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the Piedmont. So heat indices will be about 3-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back near normal. KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning through afternoon. Models are still showing an earlier frontal passage, with 3 of 4 LREF ensemble clusters showing the front pass through the region Sunday morning. If the front does move through later in the afternoon, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in the east. Instability will be weak, meaning that any severe weather is not expected. Additionally, overall light rain is expected with any showers that develop, with the mean of each of the 4 clusters of the LREF showing less than 0.25 inch of rain by Sunday night. Deterministic models are also showing much of central NC with less than 0.1 inch of rain from the frontal passage. Thus, little relief from drought conditions are expected. The front will drop temperatures back near normal, even reaching below normal at times. Sunday will start the cool down with the frontal passage, with lows dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. Lows will drop further Monday night as high pressure builds into or just north of the region. If the high settles over the region, temperatures could be even cooler, leading to areas of patchy frost, especially north. Highs on Monday look to drop into generally the mid 60s to around 70s, with temperatures then increasing each day Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 135 AM Thursday... VFR conditions will continue through 12z/Friday. It will be breezy between late morning through the afternoon today from the SW at 15- 25 knots. Winds will be mostly 10 knots or less during the overnight through mid-morning hours. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through Monday. However, there is a chance of some light rain behind a cold front Sunday. There is a small chance of MVFR cigs Sunday. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April: KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LH/Badgett AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  632 FXUS61 KRNK 160656 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 256 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Updated. Lowered the dewpoints to be more in line with the deeper mixing, otherwise no changes to the forecast. Removed snow showers on Sunday afternoon, but left flurries in for Sunday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with much cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. 2. Mountain showers possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Better chances for rain arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Gusty post frontal winds behind front to start the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures through Saturday, with much cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. Through Saturday, ridging over the Gulf of America keeps it hold over the SE states and just barely into the Mid-Atlantic. This ridging along with high pressure at the surface and persistent SW flow has contributed to the hot weather this week. Tonight into Friday a short wave will interrupt that pattern and bring some scattered rain chances to the area. This will push temperatures down at least a couple days tomorrow, but we still remain quite warm. Today however looks like the last day we could break records; see Climate section below. The next real pattern change comes Saturday night into early next week. A strong cold front will usher in drier and cooler air over the weekend, which will result in below normal temperatures. Sunday and Monday, there is about a 30 percent chance the mountains won't warm above 60 degrees outside of the warmer urban areas. For Roanoke, Lynchburg and the Piedmonts of VA and NC, it remains quite warm initially Sunday, but chances for warming above 65 percent drop to about 30 percent for Monday's highs. Next Tuesday through Thursday we will see a gradual warmup. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal for the mountains still, but above normal for the Piedmont. Even so it will not be nearly as warm as it has been recently. See fire weather sections below for details on today's fire danger. KEY MESSAGE 2: Mountain showers possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Better chances for rain arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Gusty post frontal winds behind front to start the next work week. A decent shortwave crosses the area late Thursday night through Friday, dragging a weak front through the Mid Atlantic. Model guidance at this time shows rain showers reaching the western boundary of the forecast area around sunset Thursday, and the majority of precipitation during the overnight hours, though models also show the precipitation washing out over the mountains, not much rain making it to the Piedmont. Timing of the shortwave passage is not very favorable for convection, but cannot rule out a few thunderstorms early in the event as the front tracks closer from the OH Valley. Initial amounts at this time are up to a quarter of an inch in the Greenbrier Valley of southeast WV, quickly tapering to a tenth of an inch or less eastward to the Blue Ridge, with little to no precip expected in the east. This will just exacerbate the ongoing drought in VA and NC, where it has been 10 days since at least a tenth of an inch of rain, and almost 20 days since a quarter of an inch of rain in the NC Piedmont and VA Southside, as of this writing. Higher chances for a more widespread rainfall comes Saturday into Sunday, with the arrival of a stronger front. The upper trough will suppress the persistent ridge over the eastern US, also bringing a sharp drop in temperatures. Good consensus among the deterministic models on the timing of this frontal passage, with showers beginning as early as Saturday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge, expanding in coverage eastward by Saturday evening, continuing through most of Sunday. The overall progressive nature of the front will limit rainfall amounts somewhat, and looks to weaken as it crosses the mountains. Higher rainfall amounts are expected west of the Blue Ridge, with amounts up to half an inch possible in parts of southeast WV, between a tenth to a quarter of an inch from the WV/VA border to the I-81 corridor, and up to a tenth in the Piedmont. Most likely opportunity for convection will be along the front itself, so mainly Saturday evening/night, which is not extremely favorable for strong thunderstorms. With the colder air filtering in behind the frontal passage, may see some snow showers in the higher elevation locations of southeast WV Sunday night, though warm ground temperatures will likely preclude any accumulations. Will have to watch for gusty post frontal winds Sunday and Monday, but otherwise high pressure will keep the weather dry until midweek, when another system approaches and looks to bring some precipitation to the mountains. Without much wetting rainfall expected east of the Blue Ridge through the next seven days, can anticipate drought conditions to remain or worsen for those areas, and will likely have to monitor for fire weather concerns Monday with the gusty northwesterly winds. See the Fire Weather Section for more details on fire danger through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through 06Z for most TAF sites. Although rain is possible today for the mountains, chances look best tonight as the better forcing arrives, and have kept any TSRA/SHRA restricted until after 00Z for BLF and LWB. After 06Z tonight we will see mostly MVFR developing in -SHRA for ROA and BCB as well. SW winds continue today with gusts to about 20 knots from mid morning through this evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The pattern changes over the weekend with a stronger front moving through late Saturday into Sunday, bringing better chance of showers and the potential for sub-VFR cigs/vsby, especially for the mountains. Light W/SW winds turn briefly WNW Friday afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 20 kts. Winds diminish overnight, then become SW and gusty again for Saturday. NW Winds behind the second system will be gusty Sunday to 30 knots for the mountains. Cooler weather and VFR conditions follow for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...Fire Danger Statement in effect through 8 PM for the VA Highlands, VA Piedmont, and all of NW NC... Unusually warm and dry conditions continue with record heat possible again today. Some rainfall is possible this afternoon into Friday morning, but probabilities appear low and confined to the mountains. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds, due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat. For the mountains, minimum RH values will be closer to 40 to 40 percent. SW winds will be gusty to 20 mph or so from mid morning through this evening. Winds shift to more of a WNW direction by Friday afternoon with similar gusts. Saturday winds turn back to the SW and will be gustier ahead of a front. These conditions will continue to escalate the danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region. Fire containment will be difficult through Saturday. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall comes Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front, but amounts look very light again for most. && .CLIMATE... The following record high maximums are in jeopardy today due to the abnormal warmth: For Today, April 16, 2026. Station Hi Max T Forecast Max T Roanoke 90 in 2002 89 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 89 Danville 92 in 2002 91 Bluefield 81 in 2012 79 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 84 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/SH AVIATION...SH FIRE WEATHER...SH CLIMATE...SH  662 FXUS63 KDLH 160657 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 157 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures (60s and 70s) away from Lake Superior today with dry air and gusty winds. Near-critical fire weather expected for portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota. - Rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening with isolated to scattered severe storms possible along I-35 and east into NW WI. All hazards are possible. - Colder into the weekend, but chances for accumulating snow have decreased. Warmer temperatures return through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Dense fog continues this morning over and near Lake Superior. Much of this fog should start to burn off and retreat back to the coast through this morning. Southerly flow brings even more robust WAA today, with afternoon high temperatures expected to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area. This will lead to a drastic temperature differential with Lake Superior and a fog bank may linger over the lake through the day and could affect coastal areas at times. Warm temperatures and good low level mixing is expected to lead to a very dry afternoon with minimum RH of 20-30% and breezy south winds with gusts of 20-30mph today. This will lead to some near critical fire weather conditions with a SPS out for areas in north-central and NE MN (not including the Arrowhead where conditions should stay more moist). A low pressure system across the High Plains will track eastward on Friday as a longwave trough amplifies over the central CONUS. That will bring surge of warm and moist air across the Upper Midwest, while drier moves on top of it. This will set the stage for thunderstorms and potential severe storms Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This system has trended north just a tad, allowing a nose of instability and moisture further into the Northland. Timing is such that the cold front is expected to be around I-35 by midday, largely confining the severe threat to I-35 corridor and east with the highest threat (Slight risk, level 2/5) from Spooner to Hayward to Ironwood and southeast. Recent model soundings have trended to become more surface based in NW WI, increasing the threat of not only hail and damaging winds but tornadoes as well, especially for Sawyer and Price county. Any severe weather should be fairly progressive and move eastward quickly as the cold front moves into the UP. Thunderstorms could start to develop from 12-3pm and push east, with most guidance showing the best storm environment out of our area by 00z Saturday (7pm Friday). Any thunderstorms could be capable of producing some locally heavier rain up to 1". Flooding concerns are fairly minimal with the progressive nature of this system, but extra water will likely keep things wet in NW WI with high streamflows. Rain over melting snow on the North Shore will also keep streamflows high there but widespread flooding concerns are not expected at this time. A decent blast of CAA follows this system with winds turning around to the NW Friday evening into Saturday. Guidance suggests that these NW winds could get fairly breezy and strong along the North Shore where gusts in excess of 30-40mph are possible. Much cooler conditions this weekend will result in a return to overnight lows below freezing and afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s. With the northward trend of the low pressure system Friday however, snow potential has decreased. Those along the border and in the MN Arrowhead might see a trace of accumulation with flurries elsewhere. Ridging returns next week, bringing temperatures back into the 40s, 50s, and 60s in the afternoon. Most global guidance doesn't show our next widespread chance of precipitation until late next week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas of fog are possible through this morning at all terminals except BRD. Most fog should reduce visibility to MVFR and high IFR levels, however 1/4SM fog is possible at DLH. Fog should burn off through this morning with a return to widespread VFR conditions. South to southeast winds pick up through the day today with gusts of 15-20 knots possible. Some LLWS could start to build into the area by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Breezy northeast winds are expected to develop through the day today, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots possible at the head of the lake. This period will need to be monitored for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory. A fog bank is expected to still around over Lake Superior through the day today and the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended through this evening. Into Friday, northeast winds continue through the morning, and then become northwest through the afternoon. Gusts of 20-30 knots are possible Friday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Stronger northwest winds with possible gale-force gusts are possible along the North Shore going into Saturday. Thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and early evening which may bring gusty and erratic winds, hail, and brief heavy downpours. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Much above normal temperatures enter the Northland today and Friday. Warm temperatures (highs of 65-75F) and good low level mixing is expected to lead to a very dry afternoon with minimum RH of 20-30% and breezy south winds with gusts of 20-30mph. This will lead to some near critical fire weather conditions with a SPS out for areas in north-central and NE MN (not including the Arrowhead where conditions should stay more moist). A stout lake breeze boundary is likely to set up around Lake Superior. Winds pick up into Friday and temperatures stay warm, but an incoming system should improve moisture. Thunderstorms, some possible severe, are expected Friday midday through early evening. All hazards are possible in severe storms and some locally heavy rain is possible, most likely in NW WI. On the back side of that system, some very light snow may fall into Saturday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021- 037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  290 FXUS65 KABQ 160657 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1257 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds will create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles Thursday and especially Friday, mainly across eastern NM. - Critical fire weather conditions return Thursday and Friday to northeast and east-central NM, increasing the threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark. - A hard freeze is forecast Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of central, western and northern NM. Take precautions to protect early blooming plants. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current pleasant and quiet overnight conditions will yield to strengthening southwesterly winds this afternoon. A strong and very well defined H5 low centered over northern ID this hour will amplify with its associated jetmax digging southward over the the Great Basin and Desert Southwest this afternoon. A modest H5 trough off the Baja Coast will also begin to phase in line with this northerly system, which is all to say southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen over NM. Deep layer mixing and a 993mb MSLP surface low over eastern CO will help amplify southwesterly surface winds across the area this afternoon, gusting 35 to 45 mph across northeastern and east- central NM. Lesser wind gusts will be present elsewhere over the forecast area. Winds lessen overnight as the boundary layer decouples and stronger winds aloft separate from the surface. The main trough axis will cross the state Friday with its associated 100kt H3 jetmax square over the state. Surface winds look to veer westerly most areas to start the mid to late morning hours, starting strong over ridgetops before quickly spreading to lower elevations areawide by mid-day and early afternoon. H7 winds of 35 to 45 kts will be easily tapped into providing for strong gusty winds peaking out 40 to 55 mph mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile a potent Pacific portion of the cold front will quickly advance southeastward through northwestern NM in the mid-to- late morning hours before reaching the Rio Grande Valley and central NM by the afternoon. Hazardous crosswinds on area highways and patchy blowing dust reducing visibility in dust prone areas will be the main sensible weather impacts. Widespread critical fire weather will also be present alongside the very low humidity (see Fire Weather Discussion). The backdoor portion of the cold front quickly enters northeastern NM Friday evening, advancing southward thru eastern NM pushing back the drier Pacific portion to the Pecos River Valley and reaching Roswell before midnight. A light to modest east canyon wind could reach the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metros Saturday morning as the backdoor portion of the cold front has a moderate chance (40% to 60%) of pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. As winds subside and drier air settles in, temperatures will be allowed to plummet across northern and central NM. Freezing temperatures remain forecast across the northwestern half of the state Saturday morning, with a hard freeze with lows in the 10s and 20s across the western and northern thirds. Despite being a couple weeks before many average last freeze dates, the March heatwave initiated early green up and blooming across the area. As such, a Freeze Watch will be issued for Saturday morning for areas with a higher confidence of a hard freeze occurring. This may be expanded to areas forecast to be near freezing including Glenwood in the San Francisco River Valley, the Albuquerque metro, and portions of the east-central plains from Tucumcari to Clovis. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The sharp drop in temperatures warms back above freezing into the 50s and 60s Saturday afternoon. Forecast highs will fall 5F to 17F relative to Friday across the central and eastern portions of the state, ranging from the 50s to 60s areawide. Southerly surface return flow takes hold come Sunday and Monday as a negatively tilted H5 ridge of high pressure builds over the state. This will increase temperatures and advect northward increased Gulf moisture into the area. A few virga and light showers are likely to develop over the area Sunday afternoon, capable of producing isolated erratic gusty winds. Otherwise, most areas will experience rather pleasant conditions. Moisture is favored to trend lower Tuesday with lesser chances for virga showers in the afternoon. A more dynamic upper level pattern will move into the western CONUS mid-to-late next week, all focused around another large H5 low moving ashore the CA coastline and a strong polar jetmax pushing in quickly behind that into the PacNW. While confidence is high for unsettled weather mainly during the Thursday thru Saturday timeframe, forecast confidence is very low regarding precipitation chances vs wind strength and timing of these features. The upper low looks to feature a very dynamic and complex setup highlighted by 2-3 pronounced vortmaxes rotating around the circulation structure of the storm, and how this system interacts with the aforementioned strong polar jetmax pushing into the PacNW. This is resulting in several equally likely scenarios for how this system can evolve and track across the western CONUS for the latter portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR prevails as light and variable winds tonight yield to increasing southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon gusting 25 to 35 kts. &&. .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MAJORITY OF NORTHEASTERN NM TODAY AND EASTERN NM FRIDAY... Southwesterly winds increase today alongside widespread low humidity falling below 10 percent, in some places for 4 to 10 hours allowing fuels to cure. The strongest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will focus over northeastern NM where a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early evening. Westerly winds strengthen further Friday alongside another round of very low humidity falling to near or below 10 percent. Critical fire weather will be more widespread thanks to the stronger winds, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the southern third of NM (see our neighbors discussion at NWS El Paso for south-central and southwestern NM) and over the eastern half of the state. Elevated to locally critical conditions will also be present up and down the Rio Grande Valley and western NM as well. Winds turn northwesterly behind a cold front entering northwestern NM first mid-day Friday, advancing southeastward across the state thru Friday afternoon, meeting up with the backdoor portion of the cold front in eastern NM Friday evening. Winds turn northerly across the area Friday night, staying strongest the longest over central and eastern NM. Critical fire weather subsides as winds subside thru Friday night into Saturday morning while temperatures plummet below freezing over the northwestern half of the state. Below normal temperatures Saturday trend warmer Sunday and Monday alongside increased humidity and moisture. A few afternoon virga showers will be capable of producing some isolated erratic wind gusts Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, prevailing winds will be breezy with improving overnight recoveries to start next week. A period of drier windier weather is favored Tuesday and Wednesday before a period of unsettled weather returns late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 72 41 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 67 31 57 14 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 70 38 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 31 60 16 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 66 35 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 33 64 21 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 35 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 42 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 67 37 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 31 71 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 35 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 61 30 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 68 43 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 67 37 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 58 22 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 54 32 49 17 / 0 0 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 61 26 55 12 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 68 30 62 18 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 67 36 62 22 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 74 38 70 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 68 41 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 40 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 49 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 46 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 45 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 47 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 79 41 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 77 47 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 79 41 76 31 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 47 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 79 43 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 73 48 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 47 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 80 43 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 43 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 71 43 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 71 40 68 27 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 35 70 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 38 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 71 40 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 71 40 70 30 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 48 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 65 46 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 72 38 65 19 / 0 0 10 10 Raton........................... 75 33 68 20 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 78 34 71 22 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 38 65 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 45 76 28 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 76 41 71 26 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 46 80 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 44 75 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 48 82 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 82 50 83 36 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 83 51 85 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 83 45 82 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 87 49 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 78 48 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 46 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217-218-222-223-228>233. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-123>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24