960 FXUS62 KMLB 160700 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - High pressure remaining in place will support dry and warming conditions across east central Florida through this weekend, with some portions of the interior nearing record highs. - A cold front passage late Sunday through Monday will be followed by increasing winds and seas behind the front, with hazardous boating conditions likely returning early next week. - A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today; entering the ocean is not advised! A return of poor to hazardous beach conditions is likely early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today-Tonight...High pressure at the surface combined with strong ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions across east central Florida once again today. This setup at the surface and aloft will support continued heating across east central Florida, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the low 80s along the coast and the mid to upper 80s across the interior. The ridge axis itself is anticipated to remain draped just north of east central Florida, causing winds to take on more of an east-southeast orientation. Winds will be enhanced this afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze and its push inland, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds and the greatest potential for wind gusts will remain focused along the coast. Winds wane into the overnight hours and become light and variable, with overnight temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. There is a chance for patchy fog development late tonight, but confidence in this remains low. At the beaches, lingering swells and onshore winds will create a high risk of rip currents along the east central Florida coast today. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged! Friday-Sunday...The current weather set-up with high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain in place through the remainder of this week and through the weekend. The warming trend is anticipated to continue, with highs climbing into the mid 80s and low 90s nearly areawide across east central Florida. Afternoon high records could also be broken this weekend, especially at some of the interior climate sites (Leesburg and Orlando). Overnight lows will also trend warmer than normal, reaching the mid to upper 60s. Outside of the warming temperatures across east central Florida, the weather will remain dry with winds becoming easterly each afternoon through Saturday as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. By Sunday, winds are anticipated to become more westerly out ahead of a cold front that will move southward across the peninsula Sunday night into Monday. Monday-Wednesday...A cold front drifts southward across the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning, with a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms forecast primarily from the Cape to Orlando and southward on Monday afternoon. High pressure then reestablishes itself across the western Atlantic and across the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, persisting into the middle of next week. A return of diurnally-driven showers looks possible starting on Wednesday, though confidence in this remains low at this time and there is only a 20% mention of showers at this time. Behind the front, a strong pressure gradient is anticipated to occur due to the placement of the high pressure relative to the location of the frontal boundary. This will result in increasing northeast winds behind the front that will spread southward across the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. The pressure gradient is anticipated to weaken by Wednesday, with predominantly easterly flow areawide. This rapid increase in winds will result in building seas, which will also likely translate into deteriorating beach conditions once again along the east central Florida coast. Temperatures are forecast to cool behind the front as the dry air settles southward across the peninsula, with afternoon highs and overnight lows falling slightly below normal values. It will be short-lived, however, as the return of high pressure will support a gradual warming trend across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend as high pressure remains in place. Onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue across the waters along with seas of 2 to 4 feet. There are no rain chances forecast through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, a cold front is anticipated to move towards the local waters, drifting southward across the area into Monday. There is a low chance for showers and storms out ahead of and along the cold front. Behind the cold front, a rapidly tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing winds, with northeast winds anticipated to reach 20 to 30 knots Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas respond by building to 6 to 10 feet, with the highest waves focused across the offshore waters. Hazardous boating conditions will likely warrant the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at some point late this weekend into early next week. Winds subside into the middle of next week along with a return of generally favorable boating conditions as seas subside. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Mainly VFR to continue. A very low chance of BR/MIFG remains for northern sites (ISM northward) this morning but is too low confidence to include in the TAF. Dry conditions with SCT- BKN030-040 along the coast (esp. TIX/MLB southward). ESE winds 7-11 kt resume after 15z with an occasional gust 15-18 kt as the sea breeze forms. Winds decrease again to 10 kt or less after 02z Fri. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure will remain in place across the Florida peninsula, keeping conditions dry through the end of this week and into the weekend with a warming trend also anticipated to continue. The dry air mass will lead to minimum RH values falling below critical thresholds across the interior west of I-95 each afternoon, with minimum RH values forecast to remain above thresholds along the coast. Onshore winds will develop each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland, enhancing winds to 10 to 15 mph with the strongest winds focused along the coast. Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across east central Florida through at least Sunday. By Sunday night and into Monday, a weak front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula, resulting in increasing moisture and a return of low rain chances (20-30%). Winds are anticipated to increase out of the northeast behind the front, which could lead to control concerns into early next week. Practice fire safety to avoid starting wildfires, such as properly discarding cigarettes and avoiding outdoor burning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 87 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 86 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Schaper  169 FXCA62 TJSJ 160700 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 300 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 * A variable to unsettled weather conditions will continue through Friday, promoting periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours, with a localized flooding risk. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across several beaches, especially along northern and eastern exposures, and beachgoers should exercise caution. * Conditions are expected to improve by Saturday as drier air and more stable weather return, leading to a more typical seasonal pattern with limited shower activity. * Overnight showers will remain possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands due to passing trade wind moisture. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 A variable weather pattern prevailed during the night into the early morning hours. Over the local waters, periods of showers with strong thunderstorms affected the Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Therefore, several marine weather statements and a Special Marine Warning were issued during the night. Over land areas, some showers developed across the southern coastal sections of Puerto Rico, leaving between 1 and 1.5 inches of rainfall across municipalities around Arroyo and Patillas. Around 2 AM, showers diminished in that area and developed over the El Yunque region, leaving around one inch of rainfall as well. Overnight temperatures, as of 3 AM, were in the mid to upper 70s across coastal areas and cooler across the mountains. Winds remained light and from the southeast. Today, the cut-off low clearly visible in satellite imagery will remain northeast of the forecast area, while a deepening upper-level trough persists, keeping the region under its divergent side to the southeast. This setup, combined with a weak mid-level ridge, will support cooler temperatures at 500 mb and promote some instability across the area. From 0 to 3 km, winds will remain similar to those observed yesterday, with a southeasterly component at the surface (1000–850 mb) and a more southerly flow at 700 mb, steering shower activity once again toward the northwestern and northern sections of Puerto Rico. Therefore, although widespread rainfall is not expected across the entire island, afternoon convection will support periods of locally strong showers with isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds, which may lead to urban and low-lying flooding where the heaviest activity occurs. Temperatures will slightly increase during the day due to the wind pattern and periods of reduced cloud cover, with heat indices reaching around 100°F, especially across north- central sections. On Friday, as the upper-level trough amplifies further across the western Atlantic, the forecast area will remain under its divergent side to the southeast, allowing similar conditions to persist with cooler temperatures at 500 mb and sufficiently favorable relative humidity values between 850–500 mb to support shower development. Model guidance suggests an increase in precipitable water, with values ranging between 1.75 and 2.0 inches (around the 75th percentile). Additionally, the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI) indicates the potential for isolated to scattered showers, especially during the afternoon hours, along with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over the surrounding waters. At the surface, conditions will gradually shift as winds become more easterly, with the induced surface trough moving farther west away from the CWA and a surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic dominating the local flow. Given these conditions, Friday is expected to remain on the typical seasonal pattern, with relatively quiet morning hours followed by a more active afternoon characterized by showers across the Cordillera Central and the western interior. As a result, an elevated flooding risk will persist in these areas, as rainfall accumulations could enhance the potential for urban and low-lying flooding. Conditions will improve by Saturday, with the driest and most stable day of the period. At the surface, precipitable water values will decrease from around the 75th percentile to near the 50th percentile, remaining within a more typical seasonal pattern. Additionally, at upper levels, the influence of the trough will shift farther east, resulting in more stable and warmer conditions at 500 mb. These factors will support mostly limited shower activity during the morning hours, followed by localized afternoon showers across the western sections of the islands. For the San Juan metro area, afternoon conditions indicate around a 40% chance of rain, which should still be generally suitable for the Hurricane Hunter visit at Fernando Luis Ribas Dominicci Airport in San Juan from 9 AM to 3 PM AST. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 The latest model guidance continues to suggest an influx of relatively drier air as a surface high pressure system dominates the central Atlantic and a mid-level ridge establishes west of the region. During the first half of the period, precipitable water (PWAT) values will drop to seasonal normals of 1.25 to 1.50 inches. Under the influence of the surface high, light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through mid-week, shifting from the southeast late Wednesday as another building high pressure located over the western Atlantic begins to migrate toward the central Atlantic. Overall weather conditions are expected to remain seasonal. Passing showers are likely over the windward portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity across the central mountain range and western Puerto Rico, driven by daytime heating and local effects. Due to this anticipated activity, showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely persist from the early afternoon into the evening. Because of previous rainfall, soil saturation, and elevated river levels, the potential for flooding remains an active concern. Additionally, temperatures at the 500 mb level are projected to drop to -8°C, increasing instability aloft and enhancing the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Surface temperatures are expected to trend within seasonal values throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the period, with brief MVFR conditions possible at TJBQ from 16/18Z to 16/22Z. Winds will remain from the southeast at around 5 knots, increasing after 16/15Z to near 15 knots across the area, with sea breeze variations. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will lower ceilings and reduce visibility, particularly across the Cordillera Central and northern sections due to SHRA and TS activity. Winds will decrease again after 17/00Z, becoming more easterly at less that 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic, interacting with surface trough north of the region, will promote east-southeast light to moderate winds. A subsiding northerly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters, maintaining seas from 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, small craft should exercise caution. Showers and thunderstorms associated to the trough will continue across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. Model guidance suggests another long- period northerly swell that may arrive and spread across local waters and passages by next week, resulting in choppy to rough seas and becoming hazardous for small craft. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026 No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. Beach conditions have been improving as the northerly swell continues to diminish across the local waters and passages. Nevertheless, straitening winds will result in breaking waves between 4 and 5 feet across northern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, a moderate risk will continue for the next several days across the aforementioned areas. Although there's no high risk, beachgoers should exercise caution, as life- threatening rip currents remain possible along beaches under moderate risk. A low risk risk will remain elsewhere. Another long- period northerly swell may arrive and spread across local waters and passages by next week. Besides rip currents, beachgoers should remain weather alert as showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day in the afternoons, particularly over western and northern beaches of Puerto Rico, and hazards may include gusty winds and lightning. For more specific area details, refer to weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LIS LONG TERM....GRS AVIATION...LIS  067 FXUS63 KJKL 160701 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week. - Showers/storms are possible today and tonight from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front. - Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 252 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026 The persistent Southeast US ridge has started to get shunted east into the Western Atlantic overnight, as a pair of shortwave disturbances eject from a large upper trough extending from Western North America south into the eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. These shortwave disturbances will impact eastern Kentucky over the next 24 hours or so with increased shower and thunderstorm chances. The first shortwave begins to impact the area from around midday through early evening. A fairly narrow corridor of enhanced wind shear will be collocated with weak instability just ahead of the trough axis, and this will likely bring the highest threat of thunderstorms that could possibly bring wind gusts producing isolated wind damage. The SPC has moved the Marginal Risk eastward this morning, covering all but the northwestern corner of the CWA. The second disturbance arrives toward evening and will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight, though instability will likely be diminishing as the evening progresses. The potential QPF with this event is highly uncertain given poor model agreement on details, but appears as though highest amounts potentially pushing toward 0.50" would favor areas most stricken by worsening drought conditions, generally south of Interstate 64. Skies and precipitation gradually clear late tonight into early Friday, with warm advection increasing again ahead of the next system to impact the area Saturday. Highs today are expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest in the Big Sandy and Upper Kentucky basins where precipitation will likely hold off until late afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s to lower 60s, with valley fog likely where precipitation occurs. With warm and dry conditions Friday, highs will again return areawide to the 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026 The period starts Friday night with an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front traversing the central CONUS. Increasing clouds are expected Friday night with this system progressing toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. The cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east through the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon into the early evening, with shower and storm chances increasing over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon into the overnight before tapering off Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds and strong warm advection. Saturday night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning, especially in the valleys where decoupling of winds is most probable. Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s, under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s. A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance, with the exception of KSME where viz is reduced to MVFR and at times IFR conditions due to smoke from a nearby large wildfire. Southwest wind shear remains in the forecast through around 12z-13z at most sites as a low-level jet reaches peak strength between 06z-09z this morning. Winds then increase again after sunrise on Thursday as a weather system nears. This will result in an increase in moisture and low to mid level clouds arriving in the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC AVIATION...CMC  092 FXUS64 KLZK 160701 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 -Isolated strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon -Near record temps Friday -Rain and t'storm chances along cold front Friday evening into Saturday -Critical Min RHs statewide Sunday and Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A decaying line of thunderstorms is pushing an outflow bounty across Central AR early Thursday morning. Behind it rainfall rates continue to weaken and will eventually dissipate by sunrise. A few light lingering showers are possible but much QPF with these should not be expected. Thursday afternoon highs will recover well behind this system, widespread upper 70s to mid 80s are expected. A very subtle H500 shortwave over Central MO in phase with the peak diurnal heating will fuel a few t'storms over NE AR. The peak buoyancy, right around 3000J/kg of SBCAPE, and peak shear, between 50 and 60kts bulk shear, are mostly offset on other sides of I-40 respectively mid-afternoon. This will keep the overall severe risk lower this afternoon. Any storm that can fire near the boundary and bridge the gap between the better shear and better CAPE would likely become dominate but the rather weak and offset forcing will keep this risk low. Rain chances will end just after sunset. Friday well above average temps will build in with a ridge moving quickly across the region. Mid to upper 80s are expected across Central and East AR, some locations could reach into the 90s. This heat will quickly be pushed out as the trough that has sparked several days of active weather finally ejects through and drags a cold front across our FA after sunset Friday night. Rain chances will begin to increase in NW AR around midnight Sat and push into the rest of the state throughout the day Sat. As these storms approach on Friday evening they will yet again be weakening as they enter our area. Rain chances will be scattered across much of the state during the day Saturday before an uptick in coverage along the front begins to happen around sunset in SE AR. Most locations in the state will be lucky to get a half of an inch in rain, the most likely areas to exceed that mark Sat into Sun will be in the NW and SE corners of the state. Behind to cldfrnt Sunday very dry air will spread across the state. Min RH values nearing the 20th percentile will be likely across a good portion of the state Sun afternoon. Winds will be light out of the NNE after the front and rainfall from early in the week will keep the area wide fire risk lower, but locations that dodge the majority of the rainfall this week could dry out by mid afternoon and have an elevated fire risk Sun. Mon will be slightly less dry but Min RH values are still expected to be at or below 30th percentile across much of the state. Winds will shift to out of the S as a ridge deepens across the middle of the county through the midweek. This will allow for moisture to slowly return and Min RHs will recover above critical thresholds by Tues. As the ridge builds temps will climb from normal early week back to above normal mid-week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Expect MVFR flight category at the western, central, and southern terminals across Arkansas as CIGS lower with as a mixture of SHRA with occasional TSRA moves across Arkansas to begin the forecast period through midday on Thursday. Expect a return of all sites to VFR flight category by Thursday afternoon as the activity diminishes and moves east of Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 65 86 61 / 80 20 20 50 Camden AR 85 64 88 63 / 40 10 0 20 Harrison AR 80 63 83 50 / 40 10 30 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 86 60 / 50 20 10 40 Little Rock AR 82 65 87 63 / 70 20 10 30 Monticello AR 85 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 81 63 85 57 / 40 20 10 50 Mountain Home AR 80 62 85 54 / 50 10 30 70 Newport AR 82 64 87 61 / 80 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 83 64 88 64 / 60 10 0 20 Russellville AR 82 63 86 59 / 60 20 10 50 Searcy AR 81 62 87 61 / 80 20 10 30 Stuttgart AR 82 66 87 64 / 80 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...78 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...74  597 FXUS66 KMTR 160702 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1202 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, today through early Friday morning - Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend - Cooler temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A dry cold front has begun moving south through northern Sonoma and Napa Counties late tonight and will continue to push its way south through our area throughout the overnight hours. The strongest gusts are likely to occur in the higher elevations, through the gaps and passes of the Mayacamas and Vaca mountains in Napa County and farther south through the East Bay Hills in the afternoon. Ultimately, can't rule out some isolated gusts up to 50 MPH at the highest peaks in Napa County but otherwise impacts should be limited at lower elevations. There has been a slight shift east in deterministic guidance of the sharpening upper trough that will produce the offshore flow through Friday morning. The timing of the strongest 925MB winds is late in the day today near sunset over the Bay Area and the Santa Cruz Mountains. Probabilities for gusts greater than 40MPH are very low, below 1000ft elevation. Furthermore, as the lower boundary layer begins to decouple around sunset, chances of the stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface decrease. Overnight temperatures will be cooler than normal, as winds ease in the hours before sunrise. Clear skies will result in efficient radiational cooling with some near freezing temperatures in the Santa Lucias in southern Monterey County, mostly 40s everywhere else. A progressive, high amplitude ridge will move onshore over the course of the day Friday with noticeably warmer temperatures and light winds, will be a very pleasant day area wide. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s inland and low to mid-60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will begin to rebound closer to normal while daytime highs jump another few degrees inland for another pleasant day across our area. A pattern change sets in late Saturday night into Sunday. Most of our area should see at least some wetting rains between Sunday and Tuesday, however consensus is poor across deterministic guidance for how the first and subsequent waves eject east out of the upper trough as it approaches the coast. The official forecast attm has slight chance PoPs in the North Bay as soon as Sunday morning, however significant uncertainty exists attm. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A dry cold front is moving through the Bay Area tonight. Some MVFR ceilings are expected before the front moves through and the lower atmosphere becomes better mixed with drier air behind the front. In addition to the clearing skies, strong NW winds will follow the front and persist through Thursday evening. Vicinity of SFO...There is a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings between 06Z and 10Z before a drying trend starts to clear out the lower clouds. Otherwise moderate westerly winds will diminish Thursday morning before gradually increasing through the day. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The front will take longer to reach the southern terminals, and it will be weaker when it gets there. That provides a longer window for MVFR ceilings at both MRY and SNS through the early morning hours. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A weak front will sweep through the coastal waters tonight. The passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal waters and bays through Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM early this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  588 FXUS63 KICT 160702 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 202 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon and evening. - Well above average temperatures through Friday, with a brief cool down for the beginning of the weekend. - Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest this afternoon in parts of central Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A shortwave trough was located over the central CONUS moving east/northeast while shortwave ridging across the Rockies was beginning to emerge over the Plains. This is expected to bring dry and mild weather conditions to the area today with most areas seeing highs climb into the 80s. Yesterday's frontal boundary only made it into northern Oklahoma before stalling, and rich low level moisture remains draped just south of the area. This low level moisture is poised to return as light southerly winds resume during the predawn hours today. Some fog and low clouds are likely this morning for areas mainly southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. The activity should mix out quickly in south central Kansas while low clouds and fog could linger into the morning hours across parts of southeast Kansas. A mid/upper trough over the Northern Intermountain region is progged to move into the Rockies late tonight. Downstream over the Central Plains, southwesterly flow through the column will strengthen with a 60 knot H85 LLJ progged overnight with continued strengthening of the mid/upper flow through as we move through the day on Friday. Point soundings in south central KS on Friday night suggest that the cap will keep a lid on deep moist convection as the LLJ ramps up, but if an isolated storm can develop along the nose of the LLJ, large hail would be possible given steep mid-level lapse rates and around 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE. A more progressive frontal surge is now anticipated with the front bisecting central KS by 18Z on Friday. The cap should weaken by early afternoon (17-19Z) with MLCAPE progged over 2500 J/KG and very steep mid-lvl lapse rates with deep layer shear around 60+ knots. Any discrete cells with the initial development will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes given a very favorable hodograph but confidence in discrete cells remains relatively low at this time given deep layer flow along the frontal boundary leading to messy storm modes while quickly evolving into a qlcs. We could still see some embedded supercells within the line capable of all severe hazards. It will be hard to rule out a couple of mesovortex circulations along the line given large 0-3km bulk shear values and abundant low level buoyancy. The line of storms is expected to clear southeast KS by around midnight, perhaps a bit sooner with a stable post- frontal regime building over the area in the wake of the cold front. Cool and dry conditions are expected on Sat but breezy southerly winds will return on Sunday as we begin to see more influence from the mid/upper ridge over the Rockies leading to moderating temperatures and dry weather conditions. Breezy southerly winds will continue Mon-Wed as we remain under the influence of the mid/upper ridge. Mild and mostly dry weather is anticipated through the period with highs climbing through the 70s into the lower 80s for central KS by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Low-level moisture will start to increase in the overnight hours while also spreading westward towards the Kansas Turnpike, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs developing over southeast KS and portions of south-central, mainly affecting CNU and ICT. Some patchy fog is also possible on the western edge of the low clouds as sunrise approaches. Low clouds will start to scatter out late morning with VFR conditions expected areawide by Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase in central KS by Thursday afternoon with gusts up to 25-30kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Breezy southerly winds will combine with very dry air and above average temperatures resulting in a very high to extreme grassland fire danger for parts of central Kansas this afternoon and a Red flag warning is in effect. Increasing northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger on Friday afternoon over parts of central Kansas. A very high grassland fire danger will return for areas west of I- 135 from Monday through Wednesday with breezy southerly winds returning to the area. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...GC FIRE WEATHER...MWM  895 FXUS65 KPIH 160703 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 103 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frontal Progression: A cold front continues to traverse the region this morning, maintaining elevated winds and shifting precipitation into a showery phase by midday. - Winter Weather Headlines: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Island Park area and Bear River Range through early Friday morning, while headlines for the central mountains are slated to expire later today. - Convergence Band Potential: High-resolution models suggest a potential convergence band today, which could bring light snow to valley floors but confidence is still low. - Freeze Warnings: Widespread sub-freezing temperatures in the low to mid-20s are expected tonight and again Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect to protect vulnerable early- season vegetation. - Substantial Weekend Warm-Up: Rapidly building high pressure will usher in a dry weekend, with temperatures soaring into the upper 60s and mid-70s by Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A cold frontal boundary is currently pushing through Eastern Idaho, characterized by breezy synoptic winds and broken bands of precipitation. As the front progresses, the steady overnight precipitation is expected to transition into a more showery regime by mid-to-late morning, with rain changing over to snow in many areas as a much colder air mass filters into the region. While travel impacts will begin to diminish in the central mountains later today, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through early Friday morning for the Island Park region and the Bear River Range, where mountain snow will be most persistent. One area of lingering uncertainty is the potential for a convergence band signature appearing on high-resolution models. If this feature develops, it could produce light snow across lower valley floors this afternoon and evening, though accumulations would be minimal. Synoptic winds will remain breezy with gusts up to 30 mph, though generally staying below advisory thresholds. Daytime highs today and Friday will remain quite chilly, ranging from the 30s in the high country to the 40s in the lower valleys. Once the bulk of the precipitation tapers off, the primary concern shifts to the impending cold. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight and again Friday night into Saturday morning. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, where a hard freeze is expected as temperatures drop into the low to mid-20s. While Friday night may be a touch warmer than tonight, a hard freeze remains likely nearly everywhere. These temperatures pose a significant risk to early-season crops and blossoms that have already emerged following a very mild winter. Relief arrives quickly as we head into the weekend. High pressure will build rapidly over the Intermountain West, ending all precipitation and initiating a significant warming trend. Temperatures will return to seasonal normals on Saturday before soaring well above average by Sunday. Valley locations can expect pleasant highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s for both Sunday and Monday. Looking into early next week, model confidence remains low regarding the arrival of the next Pacific system. Due to continued model struggles with the upper-level evolution across the Pacific Northwest, precipitation chances have been delayed until at least late Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cold front is about to slip through the region. Showers behind the front will likely produce MVFR conditions at times until later in the night when temperatures drop enough that snow showers could produce IFR conditions. Looks like there is a break for a few hours in the morning before the next round of showers arrives for the afternoon. Besides the gradient winds tomorrow afternoon, am beginning to see indications of a few stronger gusts embedded within the showers which we included at SUN since they have the best chances of seeing showers in the afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ051>055. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ060-066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for IDZ071>074. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...13  957 FXUS63 KIND 160706 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 306 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a broad surface low currently over the upper Great Lakes and a trailing boundary with embedded waves extending south through the midwest. This whole system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet with a mid level jet streak across Illinois this morning placing Indiana within an area of enhanced lift. Rain associated with these waves pushes through the area early this morning, giving way to a 36 hour break in the precipitation. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional showers and thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Today and Friday... Latest satellite imagery clearly depicts a few waves along an approaching boundary to the west. Satellite and radar imagery show a complex of weak showers and a few storms near Lafayette with an embedded meso-low. A secondary wave is on the heals of the first one over Missouri with associated weak convection with it as well. Local ACARs soundings show an environment conducive for rainfall locally, especially for western Indiana... however weak lapse rates and little instability will limit the overall severe threat this morning. CAMs guidance shows these waves of precipitation pushing northeast into Illinois and western Indiana through the early morning hours. Lower confidence in rainfall chances along and east of the I-65 corridor as drier air and lack of instability have been resulting in rapid weakening of any complex moving into the area. Overall, expect clouds and showers to continue over portions of Central and Western Indiana through daybreak, becoming more scattered in nature through the late morning hours as everything weakens and gradually dissapates with its eastward progression. Short term guidance shows much drier air filtering in behind the boundary today with clouds breaking up during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall, the latter half of today may be fairly nice as incoming ridging and clearing skies allows for a drying trend and highs potentially reaching 80 degrees again. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday... Medium range models and ensembles have been consistent in showing a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough ejects out of the Rockies with a strong surface cold front crossing Indiana late Friday night into the first half of Saturday. While the dynamics associated with this next system would suggest a slight risk for severe weather over Indiana, latest trends have sped up the arrival of the front to the early morning hours Saturday. Given the timing and lower instability during that time of day, thunderstorms are still possible as the front pushes through, but confidence is lower regarding the severe weather potential. Higher confidence exists in a forecast calling for rain showers and largely sub-severe storms late Friday night into the first half of Saturday with a drying trend during the latter half of the day. This front is fairly robust with strong cold air advection on the backside, ushering in the aforementioned pattern change to a much cooler regime. A 1030mb surface high slides south from Central Canada behind the front with much cooler air advecting southward into the Ohio Valley.. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday and Monday morning are currently projected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s with a few locations possibly dropping lower. The frost threat looks minimal for Sunday morning as elevated winds should prevent temperatures from dropping into frost territory. The main concern for frost exists Monday morning as the center of the incoming high pressure settles in over the lower Great Lakes and sets the stage for better radiational cooling. Highest threat for frost appears to be along and north of I-70 corridor outside of urban areas. If trends continue, frost products may be needed late Sunday night into Monday morning. Going into next week, longer range guidance suggests a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to a much warmer southwesterly flow pattern. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. - Low chances for TSRA 06-09z, more likely around KHUF - MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs during any TSRA - Wind shift to 250-280 deg today with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions remain across the TAF sites this evening even as an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms cross the IN/IL border. Upstream observations indicate there is enough near surface dry air to keep cloud bases above 5000ft agl during the rainfall. Still a small chance at MVFR cigs under a heavier shower or storm early this morning, however not mentioning it in the TAFs as the probability is very low and there is low confidence in exactly when it may occur. Best chance for reduced vsby from rain will be at KHUF and KLAF with a lesser threat at KIND and KBMG as this entire complex of showers and storms will rapidly weaken with eastward progression. Keeping TSRA chances confined to KHUF as instability is rapidly waning as well, keeping the threat for thunder along the IL/IN border. Will update the TAFs as needed if the TSRA threat looks to persist further east this morning. Fairly light winds early this morning as a rather stable boundary layer is preventing stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. Upstream obs in Illinois indicate that KLAF may see a few higher gusts to 20 kts as this area of rain moves through 06z-11z. Gusty winds possible under any heavier shower at all sites early this morning but these should be isolated. Winds shift from SSW to W during the day today with gusts of 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours as winds mix down to the surface. Expect winds to significantly diminish toward and after sunset tonight become light and variable out of the WNW to N. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM  302 FXUS61 KALY 160707 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 307 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added enhanced wording late this afternoon into this evening when there is the highest potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. This matches where the Storm Prediction Center has maintained its Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Then, lowered temperatures for Sunday given period of rain through the first half of the day followed by cold air advection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) and marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening mainly for areas near and north of I-90. Damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning are the primary hazards from any severe storms. 2. After a stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, temperatures trend below normal Sunday and Monday. Impactful weather is unlikely through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... While showers and thunderstorms tracked through eastern NY and western New England overnight, an amplifying shortwave trough in the Great Lakes will allow the quasi-stationary boundary that has been overhead the past few days to finally lift north of our region today. This will allow the warm sector to surge northward and lead to one final day of unseasonably warm temperatures. There is at least a 50% chance that areas near and south of I-90 will exceed 80 degrees this afternoon with at least a 75% chance for areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and lower elevations in Litchfield County to exceed 85 degrees. This is about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for mid- April. Our climate section shows record highs for April 16 with POU the only site that may near its daily record today. Otherwise, subsidence due to the building ridge centered well to our south will keep our region mainly dry through mid-afternoon. There is increasing consensus among the guidance that the shortwave trough approaching from the Great Lakes will result in height falls late this afternoon into this evening with its associated sfc low and attendant cold also tracking eastward. Forecast soundings show an elevated mixed layer tracking into areas mainly from I-90 northward today with the inversion eroding this afternoon in response to the approaching height falls. This combined with a very warm and moist boundary layer will generate sufficient surface based instability with guidance showing 1000 - 1500 J/kg developing. As we remain within the northern periphery of broad ridging aloft, fast flow aloft will also maintain impressive deep layer and effective shear ranging 40 to 50kt. The rather unidirectional shear through the column and fast flow will likely also lead to straight lined hodographs. While most of the day will remain dry, both the NAM and RAP suggest that increasing height falls and decreasing showalter index values late this afternoon towards or shortly after 21 UTC will allow convection to initiate around a potential subtle pre-frontal trough draped near I-90. However, the HRRR maintains mainly dry conditions through 00 UTC so there remains uncertainty if convective initiation be late this afternoon or hold until this evening. Should convection start late this afternoon, weak forcing combined with shear vectors oriented slightly perpendicular to the weak boundary should support a storm cluster storm mode. Although overall instability values are not overly impressive, forecast soundings show the remnant EML and high equilibrium levels likely allows instability to extend deep through the column with DCAPE values rather high near or greater than 500 J/kg. While damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms, the straight lined hodographs also indicate an environment supportive of sustained strong updrafts capable of large hail, frequent lightning, and splitting cells. As the main sfc cold front and stronger height falls arrive this evening, the storm mode should transition to a more linear structure with damaging winds becoming the primary hazard from any severe storms. This all matches well with the Slight Risk (level 2 to 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 to 5) in SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook focused near/north of I-90 where the stronger forcing aligns. The severe weather threat should diminish by 03 - 06 UTC as shortwave trough moves overhead and the instability finally diminishes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures trend lower Friday and Saturday yet remain seasonably warm. A notable change to the weather pattern then ensues Saturday night into Sunday as a potent cold front marches eastward resulting in a period of widespread stratiform rain. With northwest winds in the wake of the front advecting much cooler air eastward on Sunday, temperatures will drop 20 to 25 degrees compared to the previous few days and remind us it is still only spring. In fact, rain showers may mix with snow in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks before ending on Sunday. Continued cold air advection Sunday night into Monday morning also looks to favor upslope snow showers in the Taconics, southern Greens, parts of the Berkshires, northern Catskills and western Adirondacks where there is a 20 to 30% chance for at least 1 inch of snow. However, given the time of year and higher elevation location, travel impacts are unlikely. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Bands of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the region. Although most of the activity is now east of KGFL and KALB, the heaviest rainfall is currently impacting KPOU and KPSF. Over the next hour, IFR visibility within rain and thunder will impact KPSF and KPOU and some gusty winds up to 30 kts are possible as well. Behind this activity, flying conditions should generally be VFR through the rest of the overnight hours, with sct-bkn cigs around 4 kft and another layer around 10-15 kft as well. Light winds are expected for the late night hours. For now, won't forecast any low clouds or fog, although cannot totally rule it out if breaks in the higher clouds were to occur, especially for locations that saw significant rainfall. During the day on Thursday, flying conditions look VFR for most of the day. Sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft will be in place with west to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts. As a storm system approaches, some scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening, mainly between 22z and 02z. Within any thunderstorm, brief heavy rainfall may allow for IFR visibility and gusty winds over 30 kts are possible. This activity could impact KGFL, KPSF and KALB, so will include a PROB30 for these sites, but will not mention for KPOU, as activity looks north of there. Winds will become lighter from a westerly direction for Thursday night. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...RA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...27 CLIMATE...07  229 FXUS64 KOUN 160709 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Severe storms are expected Friday afternoon and Friday night. - Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur across western Oklahoma this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Saturday and Sunday during the afternoon. - Dry and cooler weather this weekend with a freeze possible Sunday morning (western and northern Oklahoma). && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Weak shortwave ridging will shift east by late afternoon, as a dryline mixes into parts of central Oklahoma. Afternoon temperatures across the western third of Oklahoma and western north Texas will soar into the lower 90s (perhaps mid 90s). This combined with a very dry airmass will result in some single digit RH values during peak heating. Transport winds suggest a southwest wind will gusts to near 30+ mph at times which will result in near-critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for 6 counties across northwest Oklahoma where fuels continue to be most receptive to fire starts and spread. We will also issue a Fire Danger Statement for several more counties to the east and south. Weak convergence along a dryline may result in an isolated storm or two, mainly along and east of a Seminole to Lake Texoma line. Instability and shear will support a strong to severe storm or two. CAMs also suggest a few storms may form across parts of western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, as a shortwave approaches within increase flow aloft. Storm coverage, if any, is also expected to be isolated (a few storms). The dryline will continue to retreat and is expected to bring good to excellent humidity recovery to all of western Oklahoma and northern Texas overnight into early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Severe weather is expected to impact the area from mid afternoon Friday into the early morning hours of Saturday. A triple point is expected to develop across northwestern Oklahoma by early to mid afternoon, as mid/upper level trough lifts across the northern and central Plains. If a few dryline storms can develop across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Thunderstorm develop is likely along a cold front across far northwestern Oklahoma and perhaps north central Oklahoma (depending on the frontal timing). If storms can remain separated initially, there will be a risk of all hazards, before more storm interactions occur as a squall line develops. The front will accelerate quickly to the south during the early to mid evening with damaging winds and hail expected. The front will clear most of the area by 3 to 5 am Saturday, with linger precipitation in the morning. As gusty northerly wind will prevail on Saturday with much cooler temperatures. With light winds and a clear sky Saturday night, parts of western and northern Oklahoma may experience freezing temperatures by early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Global models and ensemble members are rather similar with a mid-level ridge axis extending roughly along the spine of the Rockies by Sunday. With northeast winds along the western Gulf Coast, dry return flow is expected Sunday afternoon with strengthening southerly winds across western Oklahoma and northern Texas. A low amplitude shortwave trough is expected move across portions of Texas/southern Oklahoma on Monday with height rises and ridging in the wake of this feature on Tuesday. This will result in low rain chances across mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Monday with mainly dry conditions on Tuesday. Near average temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with a warming trend starting Tuesday. A more humid airmass will return on Tuesday, as a western trough/low moves across the Intermountain West. A dryline will setup across the Panhandles by Wednesday afternoon, but the mid and upper flow will remain weak. A more active weather pattern will likely emerge Thursday into Friday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight across the eastern terminals with the potential for IFR ceilings. Ceilings should improve by mid to late morning. Winds will generally be from the south/southeast. These winds will veer slightly and increase in speed by mid to late morning. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected toward the end of the TAF period across the northern terminals. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 86 66 81 45 / 10 10 40 70 Hobart OK 90 63 88 44 / 0 10 40 40 Wichita Falls TX 91 66 86 49 / 10 20 20 60 Gage OK 91 61 88 38 / 0 10 30 20 Ponca City OK 86 66 82 43 / 10 10 70 80 Durant OK 85 66 82 51 / 20 10 10 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10  768 FXUS62 KGSP 160712 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 312 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. Continued low-level southwesterly flow from a weak Bermuda surface ridge will filter through today. Despite the typical moisture return in this regime, deep boundary layer mixing will continue to tap into very dry air aloft, which will cause dewpoints to mix out during peak heating. Combine that with near-record highs this afternoon and RH values will dip between 25-30%, if not lower in some locations. Winds at the top of the boundary layer (<=775mb) will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions (gusts up to 20-25 mph) as well. As a result, at least Increased Fire Danger Statements will be issued for western NC and northeast GA this afternoon and likely again on Friday afternoon. Even if the criteria isn't fully met, low RH values, high heat stress, and very dry vegetation will enhance the risk for wildfire development. Expect this threat to linger into Saturday as well, so daily Fire Danger Statements remain possible through the rest of the week. The Fire Danger Statement for all of western North Carolina was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting below the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC and northeast Georgia again Friday, as RH values continue to reach near-critical thresholds. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought condi- tions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week. Broad upper ridging will get pushed off the Atlantic Coast later today and into Fri as an embedded upper shortwave trof approaches. The trof will translate over the Carolinas Fri morning and move offshore Fri evening with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much broader/deeper upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas this evening, however it continues to weaken/dissipate as it moves thru our CWA early Fri. We'll probably get some sct showers over the NC mtns, mostly along the NC/TN border region, but any precip amounts will likely be minimal (ie, < 0.1 inches). The more robust front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, however the latest model guidance continues to produce little in the way of accumulations outside of the NC mountains. At present, only the NC/TN border region is expected to receive more than about 0.1 inches from this frontal system. Unfortunately, it's still looking like any rainfall that we get from this system will have little impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records thru Sat, the humidity will remain lower. Minimum RH values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon thru the weekend, with values below 20% possible on Monday. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area today, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase overall fire danger. Fortunately, temperatures cool to near-normal for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, however the airmass remains dry. Freezing temperatures still appear possible over por- tions of the NC mtns early Monday and frost-producing temperatures remain possible early Tuesday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Winds will continue out of the southwest this morning and through the daytime period with additional high clouds. Winds will pick up in speed by the afternoon at 12-18 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts for most TAF sites. KAVL will be tricky due to a cross-valley wind during the day. A weak front will move in from the west by tonight. This may send a stray shower towards KAVL, but an uptick in mid/upper-level clouds will be apparent, mainly overnight tonight. The front will cause the winds to toggle more north to northwest a few hours before daybreak Friday. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082- 501>510. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  526 FXUS62 KFFC 160713 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 313 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across portions of north and central GA. Fire weather concerns will persist through the end of the week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid and upper level ridge continues to extend from the central Gulf into the west Atlantic, with an elongated surface high positioned underneath. This pattern will maintain its grip over north and central Georgia through the end of the week, although it will shift slightly to the southeast today. The morning will begin with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. High temperatures this afternoon will range from 10-15 degrees above daily normals, rising into the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s also forecast in east- central Georgia. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving through the Tennessee Valley. With strong diurnal mixing expected, dewpoints have been lowered by blending in 10th percentile NBM, MAV/MET, and latest HRRR solution. With relative humidity values below 30% across much of east Georgia and portions of west Georgia and very dry vegetation, another Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 8 PM this evening. With the ridge stretching more to the east, some isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25%) may spread into the far northern tier this afternoon and tonight. With deep layer bulk shear values between 35-45 kts ahead of the front, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Any stronger storm that develops could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Aside from a stronger storm, rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25 inch across the far northern tier and have little impact on ongoing drought conditions. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, dissipating before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Friday, with high temperatures expected to be between 12-18 degrees above normals, rising into the upper 80s and low 90s. Some locations, including the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), could see the highs approach daily records. With little change to the airmass on rain chances less than 5% during the daytime Friday, hazardous fire weather conditions are expected in the afternoon once again. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Weekend Cold Front and Rain for Some: Ensemble guidance aligns on the passage of a stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. An associated expansive low pressure system will drive moisture advection across the southern U.S. along the cold front as it pushes eastward. The result will be showers and potentially thunderstorms across at least parts of north and central Georgia Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Strong mid-/upper-level winds should not be hard to come by given the base of the trough swinging through aloft, but given such a dry airmass in place beforehand, instability/buoyancy will be lacking. Thus, severe weather is not expected. The big question many folks are probably asking is how much rainfall is expected? Unfortunately, rainfall is likely to remain around 0.25 inches or less. While any rainfall at all is much welcomed, no drought improvements will come from such measly totals. The cold front passage will be noticeable on Sunday, with high temperatures potentially some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were on Saturday. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s to lower 40s across parts of the area. Widespread lows in the 40s are currently forecast for early Tuesday morning. Still Very Dry Overall through Early Next Week: Even amid the weekend rain chances, fire weather conditions will continue to bear watching. Areas that do not see rainfall on Sunday may reach the relative humidity criterion for a Fire Danger Statement when coupled with still-dry vegetation. The post-front environment on Monday and Tuesday looks to bring a very dry airmass with relative humidity currently progged to be in the teens-to-20 percent range -- plenty dry enough for continued issuances of fire weather products. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with isolated patches of fog in the early morning remaining south of all TAF sites. Winds will begin the morning from SW at 5 kts increasing to 5-9 kts after 15Z and through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less after 01Z, becoming light and variable at times during the overnight hours. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 56 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 87 60 89 61 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 88 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 60 90 62 / 10 10 0 0 Peachtree City 87 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 92 62 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King  953 FXUS65 KPUB 160717 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 117 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread Critical Fire Weather Conditions expected Thursday across southern Colorado. Critical Fire Weather Conditions are looking less likely Friday across portions of Las Animas and Baca counties due to the faster timing of a cold front, but will maintain the Fire Weather Watch for now. - Colder temperatures with a chance of rain and snow spreads across the central and southeast mountains and adjacent plains Friday. Accumulating snow possible down to 6000 feet across the Pikes Peak region. - Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday morning and again Sunday morning which could damage or kill tender vegetation and freeze exposed pipes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The next system moving across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Basin today will increase the flow aloft across southern CO as it approaches this afternoon and evening. Surface lee trough deepens and kicks eastward in response, increasing west to southwesterly flow with compressional downslope warming and drying resulting in critical fire weather conditions. Gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the lower elevations with gusts up to 60 mph in and near the mountains. Humidity values will drop to as low as 7 percent, though where winds are strongest, humidity values will be more moist than the 9 percent threshold needed for a PDS Red Flag. So while it does look like a higher end Red Flag event, it will not meet requirements for the strongest PDS wording. In fact, it may be rather late in the day before critical fire weather conditions finally get met across portions of Prowers and Kiowa counties where some of the lowest RHs are. Otherwise, it will be warm with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains with 60s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the majority of the mountain locals. Winds decrease late in the evening with enhanced westerly flow keeping low temperatures on the mild side ahead of cold front which will be moving into the western and northern portions of the forecast area towards dawn. Showers will spread into the Continental Divide and Pikes Peak region towards dawn. Have kept low temperatures on the mild side given the enhanced westerly flow through most of the night. -KT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 An active period continues for Friday as the base of the upper trough swings through CO Friday morning sending a cold front through most of the region during the morning. Timing of the cold front is a little faster with high res models showing it reaching the southern border as early as 15z. This puts the Fire Weather Watch on Friday in jeopardy. Do not plan to upgrade it yet, and will let later shifts get one last look before potentially taking the Fire Weather Watch down, in case the timing of the front changes yet again. Otherwise, there will be a significant cool down behind the front with snow levels dropping to around 6000 feet during the afternoon across the Pikes Peak region. This coincides with a brief period of saturation and instability where some briefly intense snowfall rates could occur. However by the time saturation occurs, upper lift with the system will be pushing east into KS, so will have to rely on upslope as the primary mechanism unless the front or the system slows down. This points to the Pikes Peak region for the best juxtaposition of parameters. Probabilities of seeing advisory criteria snowfall amounts of 6 inches or more are under 15% for Teller and northern El Paso Counties, and around 50% or less for over 3 inches of accumulation. Brevity of the event, and residual warmth of the ground may also play an important role in limiting snowfall accumulations. However, it will be a shock to the system given the unseasonable warmth lately. For now, think impacts will be limited due to brevity and timing during the day, so no winter weather advisories will be hoisted this package. Heaviest QPF should stay north of highway 50 and pinned up against the mountains. Gusty north winds can be expected behind the front with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible across portions of the plains. Could see a rain snow mix as far down in elevation as 4500 feet but accumulations are not likely beyond brief slush on grassy surfaces below 6000 feet. Temperatures will be considerably cooler and went below the NBM mean for highs which will likely occur in the early morning for northern areas. Activity should clear out Friday night with a hard freeze likely across most of southern CO. the Freeze Watch still looks good, and will maintain for now in concert with neighboring offices. There is a high probability (75-100% chance) in NBM of seeing subfreezing temperatures, and a 50 to 100% chance of sub 28 degree readings (or a hard freeze) across most of southern CO. Due to the early start to the growing season, the Freeze Watch will likely need to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning with later packages. Saturday will warm up and dry out and temperatures Saturday night will likely drop below freezing once again especially along and north of the Arkansas River through Sunday morning. More Freeze Watches may be necessary. It dries out and warms up for Sunday into early next week, though once upper flow transitions to more southwesterly next week, it could tap sufficient moisture for some isolated showers over the mountains. Another system late week may bring another uptick in precipitation chances towards Thursday and Friday though timing and storm track is still highly variable among the long range models/ensembles. Stuck close to model blends for now. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light tonight into tomorrow morning, but will become breezy from the south to southwest during the afternoon at each of the taf sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH  757 FXUS63 KGRB 160717 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... -Minor to major flooding is ongoing or forecast to occur on several rivers. Expect many rivers to continue rising into this weekend, with the greatest impacts expected on the Menominee and Wolf Rivers where major or record breaking flooding has been observed. -Severe thunderstorm risk is increasing for Friday evening. Strongest storms are expected across central and north-central WI with all severe hazards possible. -Thunderstorms Friday will produce locally heavy rainfall. If this occurs over the flood sensitive areas of central and east-central WI flood concerns may be exacerbated. -Beginning Sunday a prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Friday Today... Widespread dense fog this morning will begin to dissipate after 8-9 AM with most of the fog cleared out by 10 AM. A few scattered showers may also develop across central and east-central WI early this morning along a stalled boundary that is snaked from Green Bay back toward southwest WI. There may be a few rumbles of thunder, but no stronger storms are expected. Will need to watch precipitation rates as these showers pass over the flood sensitive areas of central and east-central WI, but based on upstream treads don't expect this round of precipitation to exacerbate ongoing flooding. Any lingering precipitation should clear out early this afternoon as a ridge builds in. This will leave dry conditions across the region for the remainder of the day. Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Potential Friday... Beneath a stout cap a highly unstable airmass will be building during the day Friday. Southerly winds will usher in a tough of 60+ dew points as far north as HWY 8 along with temperatures well into the 70s away from Lake Michigan. A plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML will also be overspreading the region at this time. This will result in an increase of surface based instability to around 2000 J/kg late Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings from across central WI also show strong low and deep layer shear across the warm sector with 40-45 kts in the 0-6km layer and 25-30kts in the 0-1km layer. As the cap erodes late in the afternoon isolated discrete super cells may be able to initiate across central WI within an area of subtly convergent surface winds. Any storms that do develop within the warm sector will pose a large hail (1-2") and tornado risk. Stronger and more widespread forcing will then arrive between about 5-6 PM as a sharp cold front and upper level trough push in from the west. With the cloud layer shear oriented nearly parallel to the cold front storms mode will likely transition from discrete cells to a line of storms. As this occurs the severe wind threat will increase as will the QLCS tornado risk. One area of uncertainty is how far east surface based storms will persist. Surface winds will be out of the southeast most of Friday which will keep a stable marine boundary layer across our far eastern counties. Along with the severe threat thunderstorms will also bring a risk for heavy rain. PWATs in increase to near 1" Friday afternoon which in near the 99th percentile for this time of year. HREF 90th percentile hourly precipitation values which should be a good proxy for hourly rainfall rates within the strongest storms are around 0.75-1" per hour. With fast flow through the cloud layer (40-45kts) storms should not sit over one location too long, however, any areas that see multiple storms could see upwards of 1.5-2" of rain Friday evening into early Saturday morning. As has been the case the last few days the greatest risk for flooding will be where there is ongoing river flooding or across parts of central and east-central WI where soils will still be saturated. On the back side of this system much cooler air may result in a brief chance over to snow, mainly across northern WI Saturday morning. However, with the ground thawed don't expect any accumulations. Long Term...Friday Night Through Wednesday Saturday night through Wednesday High pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region Saturday night, then slowly track east through the central Great Lakes during the early part of next week. The high will provide a much needed reprieve from precipitation for the area. Another cold front is slated to track through the region Monday night or Tuesday as the parent low tracks through southern Canada. This system is expected to track through the region mostly dry as the best moisture and lift will be closer to the upper level support across southern Canada. Therefore, impacts from this upcoming system early next week are expected to be minimal. Mainly dry weather is expected to last through at least the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Light winds and recent rainfall will result in areas of fog/low stratus development through early Thursday morning, which has already commenced across central Wisconsin. Conditions are expected to tumble to LIFR/VLIFR in the dense fog. As drier air advects in from the northwest, conditions will improve to VFR from northwest to southeast Thursday morning. Once settled in, VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Multiple rivers, namely the Wolf, Menominee, and Wisconsin Rivers, continue to read in minor to moderate flood stage, with the Menominee River now in major flood stage due to the additional influence of snow melt from the Upper Peninsula. Home evacuations are ongoing along the Wolf River. High flows and rising water levels have also resulted in several dams being compromised or overtopped. If you live near a river or stream, continue to monitor the latest hydro forecasts and Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005- 010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK/Kurimski AVIATION.......Kurimski HYDROLOGY......GK  904 FXUS64 KMAF 160720 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of west Texas through Friday. - Increased shower/storm chances (20-40%) Friday night through Saturday morning across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos. Severe storms are not expected at this time. - Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend behind the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, subtle upper-level ridging spans over portions of the Desert Southwest. The subtle ridging takes shape over the region by this morning, promoting more warm downsloping winds. Highs are expected to reach the 80s to low 90s for most, while areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley look to have readings in the mid 90s to low 100s today. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. As a result, near- critical fire weather conditions reside over portions of southeast New Mexico this afternoon. CAMs have the dryline in a similar position compared with Wednesday afternoon, allowing more low (10- 15%) isolated storm chances across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon and early evening. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Tonight, another upper-level trough approaches from the west which will supply stronger westerly/southwesterly winds over the region. These winds are forecast to increase by the late morning hours especially over southeast New Mexico. Brief high winds may occur across the Guadalupe Mountains, however, confidence is very low at the moment to warrant issuing any wind products. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, northwest Permian Basin, and far west Texas. See the fire weather discussion for more details on the fire weather threat! The dryline will be situated over similar locations compared to Thursday, bringing more low (10-15%) storm chances late Friday afternoon. These chances look to increase more heading into Friday evening and night, more on that in the long-term discussion! Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The upper-level trough that is expected to bring stronger winds to the area on Friday moves off to the east by Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front sweeps through the area early Saturday morning. This yields cooler afternoon temperatures (upper 60s to low 70s for most) Saturday and low (10-40%) chances of rain. Rain chances should diminish by late morning/early afternoon once the front makes its way out of our area. Temperatures are forecast to fall even further on Sunday thanks to increased cloud cover/any potential rainfall, and easterly upslope flow. An upper-level disturbance moves over the southern half of the region Sunday, bringing low (10-40%) chances of rain to locations mainly south of I-10. At this time, confidence in rainfall amounts remain low and we will continue to monitor trends over the next few days. Long-range ensemble guidance shows the return of upper-level ridging early next week, allowing for temperatures to begin warming back up. By the middle part of next week, the ridge builds and afternoon highs climb into the mid 80 to low 90s. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with light and occasionally gusty southwest winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The forecast remains relatively unchanged. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico (including Chaves County and the Sacramento Foothills) and 4-6 over portions of northern Culberson and Gaines Counties. This may result in critical to potentially localized extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. To account for this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the same locations from late Friday morning through early Friday evening. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 65 91 51 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 88 55 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 88 66 93 60 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 90 63 92 54 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 77 57 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 56 86 44 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 82 50 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 65 90 52 / 10 10 10 20 Odessa 88 64 90 52 / 10 10 10 20 Wink 88 60 90 51 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Martin. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  939 FXUS65 KLKN 160727 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1227 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest tonight. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current forecast is tracking well at this time and no updates are planned. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level trough and associated surface cold front will pass through northern Nevada tonight and tomorrow, bringing cooler temperatures as well as showers and snow. Strong surface winds are also associated with the front, gusting up to 50 mph in northern Nevada today and around 40 mph in central Nevada tomorrow. Precipitation will begin as rain in Humboldt and northern Elko county before quickly transitioning to snow as it spreads south and east. Snowfall totals have decreased since this time yesterday with up to an inch now forecast for lower elevations and four to six inches forecast for mountain peaks. Minor travel impacts remain possible during the morning commute tomorrow, however ground temperatures remain relatively warm. Dry and warming weather begins on Friday, with high temperatures beginning in the 40s on Friday and warming to the upper 60s and low 70s by Sunday. Another strong upper level low is expected to approach the area by Sunday, however models are split on timing, with a faster solution bringing local impacts starting Monday while the slower solution holds off until Tuesday. The current forecast reflects the faster solution. What is consistent at this time is another cool wet and windy system that will need to be watched as it develops. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers, snow and cold today and tomorrow. Additional high confidence in calm and warming conditions through the weekend. No deviations from base NBM input at this time. && .AVIATION...Winds weaken in the early overnight hours ahead of approaching cold front. Winds are expected to increase with the frontal passage, along with lowering ceilings and an onset of precipitation. Snow showers are expected around 10Z at KWMC, 11Z for KBAM and around 12Z at KEKO. VFR conditions are possible at these terminals tonight into early Thursday due to snow shower activity. Showers taper off at each of these three terminals later this morning as the front exits to the southeast. Winds increase at all terminals in the mid to late morning hours with 12-22kts gusting 20-35kts through this afternoon. Strongest winds are expected at KTPH. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...96  087 FXUS61 KOKX 160729 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures for today increased by a significant amount across portions of the NY and CT coasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing temperatures Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Today looks like the last hot day of the fcst period. High temps in the 80s to around 90 for most of the area. Had to manually boost temps well abv the NBM for the CT and NY coasts. Brought Montauk up by 11 degrees abv the NBM, which may still end up being too little. Still warm and abv normal on Fri, but high temps only in the 70s and low 80s with falling heights and chcs for shwrs and tstms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A few cells may still pop early this mrng with outflow passing thru the cwa. No upr support so this convection should be limited in extent and intensity. Unstable today, particularly N and W, but with the lack of a trigger tstm development is expected to be low probability attm. Still something to watch in the mesoscale as the day goes on due to expected CAPE and a lack of CIN. The next best chcs are this eve and tngt as heights fall and the sfc boundary drops swd into the area. The sfc boundary looks a bit too displaced from the upr support tngt to support a solid focus and high confidence in development. Stuck with the NBM pops which are only slight chc. Timing of the upr trof for Fri seems a bit too early for optimal tstm support attm. A six hour difference could allow for this to act on enough CAPE to produce some strong low topped convection. For now the NBM was followed which indicates chcs for shwrs thru the day. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Shwrs and embedded tstms likely on Sun with a cold fropa. Timing will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS and AI-GFS right now look a little too quick to support a big event with the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful upr low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so pcpn is still likely with the sys. NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Some spots across the interior may drop blw freezing Sun ngt, then much of the area could drop blw freezing Mon ngt. MGJ MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sun ngt and 25 Mon ngt. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A front remains stalled to the north with waves of low pressure passing along it through the TAF period. Mainly VFR. Weakening band of showers pushes through the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT thru 9Z. Dry conditions then prevail through the day, before additional showers possible across the same area (KSWF, KBDR, KGON) after 00Z Friday. Brief restrictions possible. Winds largely light and variable overnight,then S/SW 8-15kt after 12Z with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible. Flow veers NW into Friday AM. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional Thursday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late Thursday Night: VFR. Light WNW/NW winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$  923 FXUS61 KPHI 160732 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Record breaking warmth continues through today, with above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend. 2. Elevated fire weather potential today. 3. A period of increased shower chances later this weekend. Much colder temperatures later this weekend and especially early next week, with the greatest risk for frost and/or freeze conditions during Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record breaking warmth continues through today, with above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected through today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above normal through the end of the week. Highs today will be similar to Wednesday's, in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints should mix out a bit more today compared to Wednesday. This could support slightly warmer temperatures, however thicker cirrus could limit heating a bit more. In any case, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall today. See the Climate Section below for temperature records stats. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal into Saturday with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated fire weather potential today. A period of fire weather conditions supportive of fire spread is forecast today, as very warm and dry conditions continue. MinRH values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across eastern PA, NJ and Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread. While these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, a Special Weather Statement will be warranted for some areas. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 3...A period of increased shower chances later this weekend. Much colder temperatures later this weekend and especially early next week, with the greatest risk for frost and/or freeze conditions during Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A backdoor cold front may arrive into at least parts of our region during Saturday and/or Saturday night. Some guidance is a little more robust with this sneaking in as the low-level flow is more from the northeast and east ahead of an approaching warm front. Given significant inland boundary layer warming during the day Saturday, the leading edge of the cooling may surge inland faster. We then turn our attention to a strong upper-level trough that will settle across most of the East during the second half of this weekend and early next week. A strong cold front will precede this trough and slide across our region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure may also develop along the front in our vicinity. As the main trough axis hangs back farther to the west, much of the shower activity may occur behind the cold front. Given the strength of the incoming upper-level trough, forcing for ascent should be strong enough to result in increasing shower coverage for a time. The thunder risk at this time looks rather low given the timing of the front. This will be much needed rain, and it will also result in a significant cool down into early next week. A gusty wind will also occur especially in the wake of the cold front, and this should limit frost formation Sunday night and early Monday morning. Much lighter winds and a colder air mass with high pressure settling overhead should set the stage for frost and/or freeze conditions Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures then rebound Tuesday afternoon and especially on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...VFR. Winds mainly 5 kts or less, favoring a southwesterly direction. High confidence. Today...VFR with broken cirrus. Southwest winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. High confidence. Tonight...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers, especially for RDG/ABE. Southwest winds shifting west to northwest near 10 kts with low- level wind shear possible. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Some showers Saturday night and especially Sunday morning with a period of sub-VFR conditions possible. West-northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots Sunday afternoon. Monday...VFR. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing in the evening. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kt and seas around 2-4 feet are expected through tonight. Some isolated gusts up to 25 kts and seas nearing 5 feet are possible, but not expecting these conditions to prevail. Thus, no advisory in effect through tonight at this time. Fair weather. Outlook... Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Sunday and Monday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Several record high and warmest low temperatures were set on Wednesday. Record breaking heat is expected to continue through today, including potential for some sites to experience monthly record warmest low temperatures for April. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 16th and monthly warmest low temperature records for April. Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 Record Warmest Low Temperatures Entire Month of April Site Record/Date (Year) Allentown (ABE) 64/19th (1985 and 2019) and 30th (1983) AC Airport (ACY) 70/26th (2009) AC Marina (55N) 67/26th (2009) Georgetown (GED) 71/29th (2017) Mount Pocono (MPO) 65/25th (1960) Philadelphia (PHL) 70/8th (1929) and 19th (1896) Reading (RDG) 68/25th (1960) Trenton (TTN) 70/19th (1896) and 20th (1896) Wilmington (ILG) 74/19th (1896) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse/Staarmann AVIATION...Gorse/Staarmann MARINE...Gorse/Staarmann  379 FXUS61 KCLE 160737 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 337 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance is trending a bit farther east with convection this afternoon into early this evening and the Marginal Risk for severe weather now covers lakeshore areas and locations east of Interstate 71. Any additional rainfall early this morning is not expected to produce flooding so the Flood Watch has been cancelled a few hours early. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern half of the area this afternoon into early this evening. 2) A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and gusty winds are likely. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the area on Saturday. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Frost/freeze headlines are likely Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are possible across the area this morning. Instability will be a bit lower today, but still expect peak diurnal instability of up to 1000 J/kg this afternoon, primarily across eastern portions of the local area and along the lakeshore. Upper level forcing will be a bit better today as a trough moves east towards the region and shear values will be 40+ knots. By the time convection develops, the best lift/convergence will likely be near or east of I-71 in Ohio, so the eastern half of the area will be where to watch for thunderstorms (possibly strong to severe) this afternoon into early this evening. Some forecast soundings are hinting at a mid-level cap that could prevent thunderstorm growth, but the shear, marginal instability, and lapse rates support a marginal damaging wind gust and hail threat, especially if the cap ends up breaking. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the shear environment. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather along the lakeshore and east of I-71 for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break in the unsettled weather on Friday, the next cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and cross the area late Saturday and possibly into early Sunday. Southwest gusts to 30 to 40 mph are likely with locally higher gusts possible as 925mb winds increase to as high as 40 knots during the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during peak diurnal instability Saturday and the deep moisture in place in addition to the stronger wind field will support potential for discrete and broken lines of storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across southeastern portions of the area with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the majority of the remainder of the CWA. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will remain above normal in the 70s through Saturday with highs near 80 degrees possible in locations that experience more clearing than anticipated during the day. A brief pattern shift is expected behind the cold front late Saturday through Monday. Lake-enhanced showers are possible as upper troughing persists across the region on Sunday and snow may mix with rain across NE OH/NW PA if precip persists into Sunday night. Highs will be below normal in the 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday and lows will begin to trend colder starting Saturday night. Minimum temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night will give way to lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer in the western fringes of the area Monday night. At this point, frost seems unlikely Saturday night due to elevated winds/clouds and marginal temperatures Saturday night, but freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night. Additional headlines are likely Monday night, primarily in the eastern half of the area. Temperatures will return to slightly above normal values Tuesday through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The airspace starts with VFR conditions this morning with mid- level clouds across the region. Some isolated rain showers exist with some isentropic lift across Northeast Ohio into NW PA and there could be a brief shower at KYNG or KERI. The main show for today will be an incoming cold front that will allow for another round of showers and storms across the region. Early convection in NW OH should just be rain after dawn at KTOL and KFDY. However, convection should flare up over North Central Ohio and allow for some clusters of thunderstorms to move through the remaining terminals during the afternoon hours. Have some TEMPO groups timed in across the area for the best chance of TS. Behind the front, some wrap around precipitation could allow for rain to persist for the NE OH and NW PA terminals. Clouds will erode from the west during the evening hours. However, ceilings will persist down wind of Lake Erie and may fall to MVFR as winds shift to the west and northwest with the cold air advection. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday with rain continuing Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Lake Erie remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across the lake Thursday night. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through Friday. Ahead of the cold front, winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less. Behind the front, winds veer to W'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 knots. Accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. These winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. During Friday night through Saturday morning, the ridge should exit E'ward and allow a warm front to sweep N'ward across Lake Erie. Mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S'erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots behind the front. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers should occur in open U.S. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. A strong cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie Saturday evening through Saturday night and allow SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to W'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 7 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed, especially east of The Islands. Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie through Sunday night and be accompanied by W'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet should persist. On Monday, a ridge should build from the west and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by sunset Monday evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Jaszka  661 FXUS62 KKEY 160739 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week. - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Deep layer subsidence and very limited moisture in the low levels has amounted to nothing more than clouds again for the overnight. There is a slightly better plume of moisture moving across from the Bahamas but the current trajectory would push into far southern Florida and maybe the uppermost Upper Keys. Even so, showers are very shallow and isolated and will likely not result in even wet pavements. Meanwhile, we continue to have generally easterly flow across the island chain with current temps in the mid 70s. Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s despite an easterly flow, to illustrate how dry it is. For today, a broad surface high centered near Bermuda, remains stretched out towards the west-southwest across Florida and the Gulf Basin. This feature will slowly begin sliding east in response to a potent shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic and New England States. This will weaken the pressure gradient and allow for a thermal trough to develop across the Mainland during the afternoons over the next several days. This will result in winds, especially across the areas immediately downwind of the Mainland, to lull during the morning and afternoon, then peak in the evening and early overnight. We continue to monitor a backdoor front that is slated to push through sometime on Sunday. This front is not expected to bring an air mass change with it. However, a ribbon of enhanced moisture will filter in behind this feature. This moisture then looks to remain trapped across the Keys as a strong high quickly slides in and settles across the Carolinas through Tuesday. This will result in a sharp uptick in winds Monday night with windy conditions returning and lasting through at least Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the evening and early overnight. The Gulfside/Bayside waters will see the greatest lulls during the afternoon as the Mainland heats up. Otherwise, a general slackening trend in breezes is expect as a high pressure across the western North Atlantic pulls further east and away from the Eastern Seaboard. A backdoor front will slide through sometime Sunday with a strong high pressure filling in behind this feature on Monday. This will lead to breezes sharply freshening with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes expected early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with occasional passing strato-cu between 4000 and 5000 feet. Northeast to east winds will remain around 10 knots or less with infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 73 83 74 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 81 74 82 75 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  525 FXUS63 KLMK 160739 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly cloudy skies are expected today with some morning showers. Abundant cloud cover will likely limit instability and result in less shower and thunderstorm chances. * A period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected for Friday. * Strong cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region for Saturday. There remains a low-end risk of strong storms with this system. Much cooler air will arrive late Saturday and Sunday with a patchy frost likely Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Early morning observations reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region with temperatures in the mid-upper 60s on the ridges and lower-mid 50s in the more protected valleys. Area radars continued to show dry conditions across the region for the time being. For the remainder of overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected for the next few hours. Ongoing line of convection out near St. Louis will continue to move slowly eastward across southern IL this morning. This activity may make it into our far northwest counties by sunrise. Expect overnight temperatures to remain in the mid-upper 60s in most areas, with the more protected valleys remaining in the mid 50s. For today, quite a bit of mid-high level cloud cover will move across the region during the morning hours. Decaying line of showers will attempt to push through the region. However, latest round of convective allowing guidance continues to trend drier in recent runs. Overall, it appears that some scattered rain showers will be possible in the I-65 corridor and point west this morning. Some thinning of the cloud cover may occur by mid-late afternoon and that could result in some convective redevelopment across the eastern sections of the forecast area (mainly east of the US 27/127 corridor). A look at proximity model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates across the region with about 25-30kts of bulk shear. Soundings continue to show a bit of a warm nose above 700mb which may keep convection from getting sufficiently deep. Should deep convection develop, brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds would be the main threats. The expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler today with highs of 75-80 expected across the region. For this evening and overnight, will have to watch areas to our southwest where some of the data suggests that a trailing convective outflow boundary combined with differential heating may lead to another batch of strong/severe convection firing across southern MO and into northern AR. This activity may scrape across southwest KY and could impact our southern zones (prob around 30%). Otherwise, some partial clearing is expected with lows falling back into the upper 50s to around 60. For Friday and Friday night, shortwave trough axis looks to move across the Mid-Atlantic while upper ridging rebuilds across the deep south into the Ohio Valleys. A broad southwest flow is expected across the region with mostly sunny skies. This pattern should allow temperatures to top out in the 83-88 degree range with breezy winds out of the southwest. A rather extensive area of strong/severe convection is expected from the southern Plains northeast through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Friday afternoon/evening. This activity will likely continue into the overnight hours with clouds increasing across our region and a chance of showers in areas west of I-65 prior to dawn Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the mid-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Saturday and Saturday Night... For Saturday, a large scale upper trough axis over the upper Midwest will shift through the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the OH/TV Valleys during the day on Saturday. A large cold front will accompany this trough axis and this feature will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient will increase and that will lead to gusty southwest winds of 25-30 mph during the morning and into the afternoon hours. An extensive area of cloud cover will spread across the Ohio Valley during the day, mainly impacting areas west of the I-65 corridor. Highs along and west of the I-65 corridor look to warm into the low-mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80 in areas east of I-65. The latest guidance continues to push the front in a little faster than in previous forecast. As of this writing, the surface cold front should be pushing across the IN/IL border by Saturday morning and then crossing the Ohio River sometime between 18-21Z and then slowly pushing into the Bluegrass region during the late evening hours. Ahead of the front, a band of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected. Instability may be quite limited in areas west of I-65 due to extensive cloud cover. However, in areas east of I-65, a pool of low level moisture will be available and some diurnal heating may allow MLCAPE values to reach 800-1000 J/kg. While the instability may be modest, model proximity soundings continue to show rather strong low-mid level flow across the region which would support organized convection. Overall flow is unidirectional so convection would tend to be more linear in nature with damaging winds being the main concern. Best combination of shear/instability looks to be just northeast of the CWA from across mainly southern Ohio into portions of West Virgina where the new SPC day 3 slight risk is located. The highest chances of showers and storms on Saturday continues to be from the mid-morning through the late afternoon as the frontal boundary pushes through the region. Overall confidence in the frontal boundary timing has increased a bit with this forecast as most model guidance has the frontal boundary east of the I-65 corridor by the evening hours. While the front may be pushing through the Bluegrass region at that time, extensive cloud cloud cover and light rain showers may persist until mid-evenig or so. Behind the front, the winds will shift to the northwest and will remain gusty through the evening. Temperatures are expected fall sharply behind the front, with afternoon readings falling from the 70/80s to the low-mid 50s by mid-evening. Convection looks to move out of the forecast area by midnight or so with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by sunrise Sunday. Sunday through Wednesday... Upper trough axis will pivot through the region on Sunday with a much cooler/drier airmass filtering into the region through the day. Highs on Sunday will likely remain in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass region with lower 60s elsewhere. High pressure will pass over the region Sunday night and there is an increasing risk of frost across the area, especially in the Bluegrass region where temperatures may dip into the middle 30s. Highs will begin to moderate on Monday with readings in the lower 60s in the Bluegrass with mid-upper 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Highs will warm into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday with a slight chance of showers/storms on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will be seen at the terminals early this morning with high clouds and light southwest winds. Convection out toward STL will gradually move eastward overnight and weaken. Convective remains may hold together and impact HNB/SDF/LEX during the morning hours. While VFR conditions should hold, some tempo drops in showers to MVFR will be possible. Southwest winds will pickup by mid-morning with gusts of 18-20kts being possible through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish toward sunset with skies clearing out. Winds will be mainly WSW and less than 5kts later tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ  730 FXUS63 KDMX 160742 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 242 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger in northwest Iowa today. - Enhanced Risk for severe storms Friday, especially over the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler this weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A brief respite from storms is on tap today as short wave ridging moves over Iowa. Main concern for today is elevated fire danger over northwest portions of the area where fuels are drier, less rain fell this week, RH will drop to around 20%, and wind gusts will increase to around 25 mph this afternoon. For Friday we turn our attention to the severe storm risk. The long wave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will cross the midwest. The associated cold front will cross Iowa during the day Friday. Strong convergence along the surface boundary, coupled with ample instability in the warm sector ahead of the front will support rapid thunderstorm development by afternoon. Current thinking is that storm initiation will occur from midday to early afternoon when the front is across central Iowa. In term of tornado potential, the main variable to keep an eye on is the low level shear. If backing of the wind occurs ahead of the front, the increased shear will increase the tornado potential. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are departing the area late Wednesday evening, giving way to mostly dry conditions overnight. There remains a fleeting chance for a shower tonight, mainly over northern Iowa, but impacts should be minimal. Of greater impact will be the potential for fog development near KMCW and KALO later this morning, leading to lowered visibilities and flight restrictions at both sites before lifting tomorrow. Dry and clear conditions with light to breezy winds out of the south are expected through Thursday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Dodson  524 FXUS61 KRLX 160744 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 344 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing on the system impacting the area this afternoon and tonight is faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening eastward, directly over the forecast area. Timing of the weekend cold front is also faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley with a Marginal Risk extending east from there for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Unseasonably to near-record high temperatures will persist through Saturday. - 2) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and low relative humidity will be joined by wind gusts of 15-25 mph today. - 3) A few strong to Marginally Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. - 4) A sharp cold front crossing late Saturday into Saturday night will end the warm spell, bringing a period of beneficial rain Saturday afternoon and night including strong to possibly Marginally Severe Storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and then colder weather for Sunday and Monday. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, along with minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge gives way to a mid/upper-level trough today, and then rebuilds behind the system on Friday. This will maintain the well-above normal temperatures, although the faster timing of the systems may make record highs harder to breach today and Saturday. In addition, the ridge does not build back as strong as it is early this morning, so highs Friday remain a bit stunted as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s through the balance of the week, although this will be limited to areas east of the Ohio River by incoming systems from the west today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will then be in the 20s next Sunday through Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. Fuels are exceptionally dry. This, coupled with wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, elevates fire danger today. Lighter winds, and an intervening conditional wetting rain this afternoon and tonight, may mitigate fire danger concerns a bit on Friday. Saturday may then turn out similar to today, with intervening drying and gusty winds, but with another system incoming from the west. KEY MESSAGE 3... Timing continues to trend faster on a mid/upper-level short wave trough approaching from the west early this morning and now forecast to cross the area this afternoon and tonight. This is fast enough to increase shear during peak afternoon heating, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening eastward, so that it is now directly over the forecast area. The primary severe weather threats are damaging wind gusts due to adequate shear amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads, and hail from discrete cells given adequate CAPE through the hail growth layer. The showers and thunderstorms will also be somewhat beneficial in terms of a conditional wetting rain, but not put much of a dent in our drought conditions given at best modest area- averaged QPF amid the dry sub-cloud layer. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift remains on track for this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Timing continues to trend faster on this system as well, with showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday into Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection via increased shear. The instability forecast will again need watched given the strong shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. While instability is not expected to be anywhere near the magnitude forecastahead of the front upstream Friday afternoon and evening, the evolution of the system results in a better intersection of the strong shear with the instability axis. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley coincident with the intersection of strong shear and instability Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with a Marginal Risk extending eastward from there to encompass the majority of the remaining lowlands over West Virginia, as the wind and hail threats wane with eastward extent through the evening. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial additional nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to -5C give or take Sunday night, compared with the +15C or so h85 temperatures of the current unseasonably warm spell. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, the high building into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday night, and still hanging on in the mountains Monday night. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough, although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of significant rain and low afternoon relative humidity, though the surface front associated with the new short wave brings a low-end chance for showers midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the day, then brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible within any showers or thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon or evening. Late-day thunderstorms today could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light south to southwest winds early this morning strengthen again later this morning, with 15 to 25 kt gusts today, before becoming light southwest to variable tonight. Late-day thunderstorms could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be minimal low level wind shear early this morning, and again overnight tonight. Wind gusts today will fluctuate, possibly including stronger gusts than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and late Saturday through Saturday night. && && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  181 FXUS63 KIWX 160753 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 353 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms may bring some localized wind gusts of 40 mph or greater and pockets of one quarter inch to one half inch of rain. This could lead to some ponding of water and minor flooding. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again today particularly across northeast Indiana, south central Lower Michigan, and far northwest Ohio. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few showers and storms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail this afternoon. - More showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday night into Saturday. There is some strong to severe wind gusts with these thunderstorms late Friday night through mid afternoon Saturday. - Much cooler for Sunday behind a cold front, but temperatures moderate early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A 55 to 65 knot upper speed max progressing through southwest upper flow and strong low level moisture transport is aiding in multiple clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Low level CIN has developed locally which should tend to decrease this convection over next few hours. Some lingering outflow has resulted in some isolated gusts over 40 mph, and this may continue to be the case through 10Z. While additional precipitation this morning may only be in the quarter to half inch range with the heavier pockets of rainfall, this added rain in areas which have experienced heavy multi-day rain amounts could lead to some minor flooding. Current expectation is that Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 12Z. For today, the more amplified upper level trough will lift northeast to southeast Ontario as it encounters and dampens the stubborn mean eastern CONUS upper ridge. This track will make for slow southeast progress to lagging low level front this afternoon. Deeper moisture axis should be shifting east of the local area this morning, but cooling aloft with the upper level low track should allow for some weak to moderate sfc based instability to develop this afternoon (500-1200 J/kg). The track of mid/upper level reflection will result in gradually waning deep layer shear profiles today, and thus not a great co-location of instability/shear parameters. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completed ruled out especially in a brief window during mid-late afternoon closer to the upper level system where mid level lapse rates are maximized across NE IN/SC Lower MI/far NW Ohio, but overall severe threat today is substantially lower than previous few days. With only a partial dampening of the eastern CONUS ridging today, associated sfc boundary is not expected to make significant southward progress tonight and will likely stall across northern IN/northwest OH tonight. Weak flow in vicinity of this trough, partial clearing and likely good near sfc moisture lingering beneath low level inversion suggest potential of fog formation tonight. Mid level ridging quickly amplifies Thursday night into Friday downstream of a more significant upper level trough that will dig across the Rockies on Friday. Strong low level moisture transport will be confined west of the local area from southern Plains into eastern Iowa on Friday which is where convective initiation is expected. Progression of this longwave feature will increase convective chances locally especially after 06Z Friday night. Upstream convective line should tend to outrun better instability as it reaches western Great Lakes overnight Friday night, but potential exists that some severe wind potential could be maintained into western portions of the forecast area overnight. Strong background wind fields should also yield strong westerly 0-3km line normal shear vectors which could induce some QLCS processes. Far southeast portions of the forecast remain in SWODY3 Marginal Risk outlook, with overall trend to fast frontal progression likely limiting severe risk locally for Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday will feature below normal temps behind the associated Saturday cold front but mid level heights should recover late Monday in advance of a more broad south central Canadian upper trough. A cool frontal boundary with this feature will likely graze southern Great Lakes region for middle of next week. It does appear as though we could be headed to a more seasonable temperature pattern next week with indications in medium range guidance of a more stable longwave pattern developing of western CONUS trough, central CONUS ridge, and eastern CONUS trough. This would result in more limited day to day thermal advections and at least some break from the active recent severe weather pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong low level moisture transport and smaller scale embedded waves in upper level southwest flow have allowed for several clusters have showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. This will continue through the overnight hours, with bulk of the rain showers from 06Z-11Z. A few storms are possible, but overall coverage should become increasingly limited over the next several hours. The primary upper level trough across northern IL will slowly progress through mean upper level ridge, but strength of this ridge will result in short wave trough taking a more northeasterly route to the Lake Huron vicinity by late this afternoon. This will result in associated sfc boundary lagging back to the west this morning. This sfc boundary will eventually sag across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon resulting in a wind shift to the west. Best chance of thunderstorms appears to be across northeast Indiana following the track of the primary upper level low where sfc based instability and mid level lapse rates will be maximized. Have included a PROB30 group at KFWA given a little better proximity to low level boundary and upper level low, but KFWA should be on southern periphery of more favored thunder chances. Concern for tonight will shift to fog potential as sfc boundary settles across the area with light winds, partial clearing, and potential of near sfc moisture trapped beneath inversion. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  011 FXUS66 KOTX 160753 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1253 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow showers in Idaho and far eastern reaches of Washington Thursday. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday. - Increasing rain chances early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Rain and snow showers will continue in Idaho and far eastern Washington Thursday. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the weekend. Next round of showers expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: The region will be under northwest flow aloft as an upper-level ridge builds toward the WA Coast and low pressure departs to the east. It will be a cold start to the day with subfreezing temperatures for much of the region. Following a few hours of warming, cumulus clouds will redevelop with isolated to scattered showers over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern third of WA. Midlevels will be slow to warm over these areas coinciding with the backside of the departing low. Additionally, a midlevel wave will drop southward from BC with some degree of organization within the shower fields starting in the late morning and continuing into the afternoon. Motorists should prepare for winter travel conditions over Lookout Pass, mainly in the morning with snow showers in the afternoon likely having a hard time accumulating on roads. Thursday night will be another chilly night with even lighter winds and modest clearing. Be prepared for care for sensitive plants once again region-wide. Friday-Monday: There is increasing confidence for dry conditions closing out the work week and heading into the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will over the region Friday and Saturday delivering light winds, warming temperatures, and clear to partly cloudy skies. This has a support from nearly all ensemble models. An area of low pressure comes into play by late weekend into early next week. This system drops out of the Gulf of AK Sunday into Monday and will most likely take a track along or just off the WA Coast (80-85% chance). Dry conditions will continue for the Inland NW with an easterly component to the wind field. If the 20% of ensemble members come to fruition with a slightly more inland track, then light precipitation will be possible for the Inland NW with the passage of a warm front. There will be more clouds present by Sunday into Monday, at least in the mid to high levels. Temperatures will be on warming trend, roughly 5-7 degrees each day. Overnight lows will be cool with freezing temperatures in the mountain valleys each morning and a slow transition from mid 30s to lower 40s for remaining lowlands. Tuesday-Thursday: Trends will be toward cooler temperatures and increasing precipitaiton chances with 60-65% or more ensemble members swinging the offshore low inland. The main variance in the models is exactly when does this occur (Tuesday or Wednesday). This does not look like a very wet pattern but a more typical April instability shower threat with with spotty light rainfall amounts. Temperatures will cool slowly with the passage of the system from the 60-70s back into the 50-60s, very close to late April averages. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Low pressure spinning over the region will continue to bring spotty showers to North Idaho and at times, far eastern WA through Thursday. A more organized band of showers will track north to south 14-21Z falling as snow for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, mix for KPUW, and rain for KLWS due to the later timing. Prior to the arrival of this wave, there is a 60% chance for MVFR cigs to develop around KCOE and KPUW. Winds will remain breezy on Thursday with gusts around 25kts. The system will begin to exit Thursday night with clearing skies, decreasing winds, and chilly temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence on the early morning MVFR stratus. Moderate to high confidence for an organized band of showers but low if this will drive vis down below 5SM. High confidence for VFR conditions to return Thursday evening and night though fog is possible in the valleys of NE WA and N ID Thursday night. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 54 32 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 46 29 52 30 60 36 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 45 29 51 32 60 39 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 50 33 56 33 65 41 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 54 26 57 28 62 33 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 44 28 49 29 57 35 / 80 10 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 41 28 47 28 57 36 / 90 20 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 59 30 60 34 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 35 59 39 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 57 32 61 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$  239 FXUS63 KMPX 160754 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 254 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today, with critical fire weather conditions across western MN on this afternoon. - A very strong cold front will trek east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 early Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today and Tonight: Current observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s, with light and variable winds across the region. Southerly winds will ramp up after daybreak with gusts up to 30 mph likely across western Minnesota. Our primary concern today will be near critical fire weather conditions across western Minnesota. Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region ahead of the next low pressure system. The combination of gusty southerly winds and low RH values between 15 to 25 percent prompted an upgrade of our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for portions of west-central and southwest MN. Warm air advection via the southerly winds will keep our low temperatures tonight close to our average high temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the 50s to 60 in the Twin Cities. Friday and Friday night: Attention turns to Friday as a strong cold front is progged to move through the region late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and 70s ahead of the front, but the frontal passage will cause temperatures fall 20 to 25 degrees in the afternoon. Storms and showers will develop along the frontal boundary around lunchtime/Noon. Guidance suggests the storms really get going east of I-35 in western Wisconsin. The environment in the warm sector is favorable for severe weather. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms start off as discrete cells before quickly congealing into a squall line that'll pose a primary wind/tornado threat as it moves east across WI. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) remains for much of our W WI counties, but a sliver of Eau Claire county is now in an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5). Forecast soundings highlight a very favorable low level shear environment across central WI along the sfc low pressure track. Overall, the best threat of severe weather is east of our forecast area, but we'll have to keep an eye on the initial thunderstorms that develop Friday afternoon. These could produce hail and damaging winds before turning into a linear mode. Precipitation will changeover to snow Friday evening as colder air works in. Thankfully, the snow potential remains well off to our north. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and lower 30s Friday night with. A few Saturday through next Thursday: Saturday and Sunday are going to a snap back to more typical April weather with highs in the 40s and low 50. A few "mood flakes" are possible on Saturday with cold air aloft under the high pressure, but nothing more than that. The pattern will dry out through middle of next week. Temperatures begin to rebound as the surface high shifts to the east and warm air advection ramps up in the southerly return flow. Highs will return back into the 60s and 70s for the first half of the new work week before another organized system looks to impact the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 I have opted to maintain a TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm (LIFR). Fog should develop in the valley after the mid-level cloud deck moves out overnight. Fog will burn off quickly by mid-morning. Elsewhere, VFR is expected is expected the entire period. Southerly winds persist across western MN tonight while they'll be light and variable at the other terminals in C/E MN and W WI. Southerly winds will increase in speed by mid-morning at all sites. Gusts will near 30 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours. Gusts will reach 25 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon. KMSP... No Additional Concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BPH