689 FXUS61 KLWX 160800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... New Small Craft Advisory issued for this afternoon. Special Weather Statement issued for near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record warmth and near critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon. - Much cooler air returns early next week, along with renewed fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth and near critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The story remains the same today, record warmth and near critical weather conditions due to upper ridge overhead. However, the upper ridge will start breaking down later today. This is a well known critical fire weather pattern in the western U.S which causes dry thunderstorms in that region of the CONUS. That will not be the case here, but weak capping may allow deep mixing of drier air aloft and stronger winds. Assuming a high of 93 and if dewpoints hold at 52 degrees through the day, this already yields a 25% Rh. Yesterday, we saw RH's dropped into the upper teens at Sawmill Ridge RAWS. Certainly possible that we could see Rh's drop below 20% and winds may gust up to 30 mph if that deeper mixing is realized, although expecting winds to gust generally in the 20 to 25 mph for a few hours in the afternoon. Some showers will start making into the mountains after dark, but will start to fade as they move eastward overnight. Have only a 20% PoPs east of the Blue Ridge Mountains with only trace amounts. Dry Fri and Saturday with a continued elevated fire weather conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler air returns early next week, along with renewed fire weather concerns. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Gusty northwesterly winds will advect much cooler air into the region on Sunday in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. Temperatures will either hold steady in the 50s or fall over the course of the day. Morning showers should wind down, giving way to drier conditions during the afternoon. An upper trough axis will pass overhead Sunday night, with a secondary surge of colder air filtering in from the northwest as the trough departs. Temperatures should drop into the 30s for most (lower 40s southeast of I-95), with snow showers possible in the mountains. A stray flurry or two could even be possible to the east of the mountains late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the 50s for most on Monday (40s mountains, lower 60s central VA to southern MD). Fire weather concerns likely increase as very dry air filters into the region within northwesterly flow. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper teens and 20s on Monday, with northwesterly winds potentially gusting to between 20 and 30 mph. High pressure is forecast to approach from the northwest Monday night. Depending on the ultimate positioning of the high, there could be frost and/or freeze concerns Monday night if winds go calm. Low temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 30s for most locations. Gradual moderation in temperatures is expected as we move into the middle of the week, with forecast highs in the 60s on Tuesday, and 70s on Wednesday. Relative humidity values may be low again on Tuesday (minimum values in the 20s), but winds will be a bit lighter compared to Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SW winds gusting up to 20 kt this afternoon. Winds shifting to NW late tonight. A few light showers possible tonight, but should not cause any restrictions. Sub-VFR conditions may be possible for a time Sunday morning in association with low ceilings and rain, but improvement back to VFR is expected later in the day. VFR conditions and gusty winds are expected Sunday afternoon through the day Monday. && .MARINE... SCA issued for this afternoon for wind gusts 18-23 kt. Winds diminish late in the evening. SCA level winds are expected within northwesterly flow on both Sunday and Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near critical to critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon. Lack of stronger sustained wind speeds is the only limiting factor for a solid RFW event as fuel moisture, Energy Release Component (ERCs), ongoing moderate to severe drought, and record breaking warmth for the month of April, and low Rh's will likely offset the lack of of strong sustained wind speeds. Even with the lack of strong sustained wind speeds, freq gusts of 20-25 mph are expected with gusts potentially as high as 30 mph if deeper mixing is realized. Otherwise...elevated fire weather conditions will persist through Saturday due to above normal temperatures, low Rh's and lack of rain. && .CLIMATE... Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April. April 16 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017) Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012) Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017) Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941) Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002) April 17 LocationRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024) Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976) Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941) Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976) Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994) Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002) All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915 All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA)70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-535>537-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP AVIATION...LFR/KJP MARINE...LFR/KJP  633 FXUS61 KRLX 160801 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 401 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing on the system impacting the area this afternoon and tonight is faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening eastward, directly over the forecast area. Timing of the weekend cold front is also faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley with a Marginal Risk extending east from there for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Unseasonably to near-record high temperatures will persist through Saturday. - 2) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and low relative humidity will be joined by wind gusts of 15-25 mph today. - 3) A few strong to Marginally Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. - 4) A sharp cold front crossing late Saturday into Saturday night will end the warm spell, bringing a period of beneficial rain Saturday afternoon and night including strong to possibly Marginally Severe Storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and then colder weather for Sunday and Monday. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, along with minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge gives way to a mid/upper-level trough today, and then rebuilds behind the system on Friday. This will maintain the well-above normal temperatures, although the faster timing of the systems may make record highs harder to breach today and Saturday. In addition, the ridge does not build back as strong as it is early this morning, so highs Friday remain a bit stunted as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s through the balance of the week, although this will be limited to areas east of the Ohio River by incoming systems from the west today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will then be in the 20s next Sunday through Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. Fuels are exceptionally dry. This, coupled with wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, elevates fire danger today. Lighter winds, and an intervening conditional wetting rain this afternoon and tonight, may mitigate fire danger concerns a bit on Friday. Saturday may then turn out similar to today, with intervening drying and gusty winds, but with another system incoming from the west. KEY MESSAGE 3... Timing continues to trend faster on a mid/upper-level short wave trough approaching from the west early this morning and now forecast to cross the area this afternoon and tonight. This is fast enough to increase shear during peak afternoon heating, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening eastward, so that it is now directly over the forecast area. The primary severe weather threats are damaging wind gusts due to adequate shear amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads, and hail from discrete cells given adequate CAPE through the hail growth layer. The showers and thunderstorms will also be somewhat beneficial in terms of a conditional wetting rain, but not put much of a dent in our drought conditions given at best modest area- averaged QPF amid the dry sub-cloud layer. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift remains on track for this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Timing continues to trend faster on this system as well, with showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday into Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection via increased shear. The instability forecast will again need watched given the strong shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. While instability is not expected to be anywhere near the magnitude forecast ahead of the front upstream Friday afternoon and evening, the evolution of the system results in a better intersection of the strong shear with the instability axis. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley coincident with the intersection of strong shear and instability Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with a Marginal Risk extending eastward from there to encompass the majority of the remaining lowlands over West Virginia, as the wind and hail threats wane with eastward extent through the evening. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial additional nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to -5C give or take Sunday night, compared with the +15C or so h85 temperatures of the current unseasonably warm spell. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, the high building into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday night, and still hanging on in the mountains Monday night. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough, although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of significant rain and low afternoon relative humidity, though the surface front associated with the new short wave brings a low-end chance for showers midweek. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the day, then brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible within any showers or thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon or evening. Late-day thunderstorms today could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light south to southwest winds early this morning strengthen again later this morning, with 15 to 25 kt gusts today, before becoming light southwest to variable tonight. Late-day thunderstorms could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be minimal low level wind shear early this morning, and again overnight tonight. Wind gusts today will fluctuate, possibly including stronger gusts than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and late Saturday through Saturday night. && .Climate... Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------- Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | -------------------------------------- CRW | 86 / 89 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 81 / 84 (2002) | 76 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) | -------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  425 FXPQ50 PGUM 160805 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 605 PM ChST Thu Apr 16 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Typhoon Sinlaku is seen to the north of Tinian and Saipan, over the northern CNMI. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers are seen across Guam and Rota, with cloudy skies and numerous showers over Tinian and Saipan waters. Tanapag buoy shows seas between 25 and 28 feet while altimetry shows seas of 19 to 28 feet over the Marianas, with highest seas for the northern waters of Tinian and Saipan. && .Discussion... Typhoon Sinlaku continues to move away from the Marianas, passing through the northern CNMI west of Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to wind down, with the Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch for Guam cancelled earlier today. Rota will likely see improved conditions later this evening. the latest forecast shows Tinian and Saipan moving out of tropical storm conditions around 3 am. As the Typhoon Warnings clear, strong gusty winds look to continue for the next couple of days. Guam and Rota will see a dry pattern develop, with POPs (Probability of Precipitation) falling into the 10 to 20 percent range through the middle of next week. Tinian and Saipan will see scattered showers through Friday afternoon, then the dry pattern will move in. Nice and quiet weather for the first half of next week, allowing clean up from Sinlaku to proceed. && .Marine... Although Sinlaku is moving out of the area and tropical storm/typhoon conditions continue to improve, large swell producing seas in excess of 15 feet will continue into the weekend, producing hazardous seas across the region. A Hazardous Seas Warning and Small Craft Advisory were issued for Guam waters earlier today and will likely be issued for Rota, Tinian and Saipan as the Typhoon Warnings are cancelled. Seas and winds will remain above 10 feet well into the weekend. The seas will maintain dangerous surf conditions into the weekend, along with coastal flooding through at least Saturday. Marine conditions look to fall below Small Craft Advisory levels late in the weekend for Guam and early next week for the CNMI. && .Hydrology... Heavy rainfall potential has subsided and all flood products have expired. && .Tropical Systems... At 500 PM ChST, 0700 UTC, the center of Typhoon Sinlaku was located near 17.8N, 144.6E, or 80 miles west of Alamagan and around 200 miles north-northwest of Tinian and Saipan. Sinlaku was slow to move away from Tinian and Saipan for much of the morning, but visible satellite imagery trends this afternoon show that the center of Sinlaku's eye is now moving north-northeast as it passes to the west of Alamagan, beginning to pick up forward speed moving at roughly 7 to 9 mph. TY Sinlaku remains a powerful Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of around 115 mph within the eyewall. Sinlaku is forecast to continue weakening through the next few days, making a turn toward the northeast Friday morning as it passes Pagan and Agrihan to the west, then to the north of Agrihan Friday afternoon. Tinian and Saipan are expected to remain within the tropical storm force wind field until at least midnight tonight, with sustained winds gradually subsiding below 39 mph through the early morning hours of Friday. The latest forecast shows typhoon winds around 75 mph developing for Pagan and Agrihan late tonight before departing Agrihan late Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the northern CNMI until late Friday night. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and WTPQ81 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... An unsettled pattern has set up from the RMI to central eastern Micronesia. This is due to the remains of a fragment of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) interacting with a trade-wind trough traversing the ITCZ. As Sinlaku moves further away, this will allow for the ITCZ fragment to move westward over the coming days and bring showers to Kosrae and lingering in RMI. These showers may move into Pohnpei around Friday night and Monday. Altimetry shows combined seas of 6 to 7 feet near Pohnpei and 4 to 6 near Majuro. There are two mixed swells in the region at Pohnpei and Kosrae and one at Majuro. The first is a mix of west and northeast swells and the other is a mix of east and northeast swells. Winds are expected to light to moderate through the middle of next week. && .Western Micronesia... A dry pattern has set up in the wake of Typhoon Sinlaku. Through the middle of next week, isolated showers with a few periods of scattered showers can be expected with one caveat, around Monday showers around Chuuk may build to around 50 percent chance as the showers from Pohnpei may move through the region. The main concerns for the region are in the marine regions around Yap and Koror. Swells produced by Sinlaku are keeping the seas and surf elevated. At Koror, surf is expected to be 7 to 10 feet along north facing reefs, while at Yap, surf is expected to be 10 to 14 feet especially during high tide times with the new moon cycle adding to the surf heights. Seas near Yap will also be elevated to above 10 feet and hazardous to small craft operations. Seas and surf are expected to crest over the evening and early morning hours, then begin to fall as early as Friday. Chuuk on the other hand has fallen to just below 9 foot surf along west and north facing reefs and is expected to continue to fall for the next several days. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001. Wind Advisory until 5 AM ChST Friday for GUZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM ChST Saturday for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM ChST Saturday for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM ChST Saturday for MPZ001. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM ChST Saturday for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001>003. Coastal Flood Warning until noon ChST Friday for MPZ002-003. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Friday to 5 PM ChST Saturday for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Warning for PMZ152>154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST Saturday for PMZ151. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM ChST Friday for PMZ151. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte East/West Micronesia: Bowsher Tropical: DeCou  621 FXUS61 KCTP 160806 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 406 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Additional details on potential convection today and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) MRGL severe threat across the NW this afternoon and evening. 2) Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early evening may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into today, although Friday and Saturday remain above normal. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and a break from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: MRGL severe threat across the NW this afternoon and evening. A midlevel shortwave trough will move out of the Midwest this afternoon toward Lake Erie by this evening. Although this will result in height falls locally, the upper level jet streak associated with the trough will weaken with time. All things considered, subtle large scale ascent collocated with 250-750 J/kg of CAPE and little to no CIN should result in a line of convection late this afternoon into this evening approaching the Laurel Highlands up through the northwest mountains. One of the limiting factors for severe potential is midlevel lapse rates that are not very steep. Nonetheless, DCAPE of 400-500 J/kg and storm motions 35-40 kts with little CIN warrants at least a MRGL risk for severe wind gusts. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early evening may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, temps again will rise into the 80s. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels and wind speeds are not critical enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a Special Weather Statement. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into today, although Friday and Saturday remain above normal. Very warm conditions again for today, with morning lows starting out at or near records. A mild start plus increasing sunshine will result in highs again pushing through the 80s across much of central PA. The trough coming through tonight and a weak cold front on Friday will knock temps down 5-10 degrees between today and tomorrow, but they will still be well above normal. A few degrees warmer Saturday as southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and a break from summer heat late this weekend. The next round of showers and storms will come along and ahead of a cold front Sat - Sat night. SPC has introduced a SLGT severe weather outlook for eastern OH and western PA Sat, with the MRGL risk area clipping our western zones. A significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air beginning Sat night. In fact, there could even be some snow showers on Sunday. Monday night likely holds a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down below 32F, and as cold as 20 in the northern tier. Temps rebound Tue afternoon and remain mild into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers will remain possible over northwest PA through the rest of the night, though all TAF sites likely remain dry. Patchy fog is beginning to form as breaks in the clouds develop, but confidence on visibility restrictions at airfields is low. Most guidance would indicate that all sites remain VFR, but periods of IFR visibility cannot be ruled out, particularly at BFD, IPT. VFR conditions are expected during the day on Thursday with varying amounts of mid and high clouds and west-southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Gusts to 25 knots will be possible. Similar to the past few days, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening over western PA. BFD, JST, UNV, and IPT will once again be most likely to see any thunderstorms. There is a stronger signal in the model guidance for low clouds to develop Thursday night over northwest PA than there has been the past few nights. Ceilings may drop to MVFR or IFR at BFD after 03Z, with lower confidence in any ceiling restrictions for other sites. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... MDT and IPT both had high temps of 87F on Wed Apr 15, which ties the record at MDT (set in 1941) and breaks the record of 86 at IPT (set in 1994). IPT also broke the Apr 15 record for warmest daily low temp, where 58F broke the record of 57F set in 2023. Record high daily mins are possible again today and tomorrow. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  899 FXUS61 KCLE 160813 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 413 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance is trending a bit farther east with convection this afternoon into early this evening and the Marginal Risk for severe weather now covers lakeshore areas and locations east of Interstate 71. Any additional rainfall early this morning is not expected to produce flooding so the Flood Watch has been cancelled a few hours early. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern half of the area this afternoon into early this evening. 2) A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and gusty winds are likely. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the area on Saturday. 3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Frost/freeze headlines are likely Sunday night and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are possible across the area this morning. Instability will be a bit lower today, but still expect peak diurnal instability of up to 1000 J/kg this afternoon, primarily across eastern portions of the local area and along the lakeshore. Upper level forcing will be a bit better today as a trough moves east towards the region and shear values will be 40+ knots. By the time convection develops, the best lift/convergence will likely be near or east of I-71 in Ohio, so the eastern half of the area will be where to watch for thunderstorms (possibly strong to severe) this afternoon into early this evening. Some forecast soundings are hinting at a mid-level cap that could prevent thunderstorm growth, but the shear, marginal instability, and lapse rates support a marginal damaging wind gust and hail threat, especially if the cap ends up breaking. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the shear environment. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather along the lakeshore and east of I-71 for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break in the unsettled weather on Friday, the next cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and cross the area late Saturday and possibly into early Sunday. Southwest gusts to 30 to 40 mph are likely with locally higher gusts possible as 925mb winds increase to as high as 40 knots during the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during peak diurnal instability Saturday and the deep moisture in place in addition to the stronger wind field will support potential for discrete and broken lines of storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across southeastern portions of the area with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the majority of the remainder of the CWA. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will remain above normal in the 70s through Saturday with highs near 80 degrees possible in locations that experience more clearing than anticipated during the day. A brief pattern shift is expected behind the cold front late Saturday through Monday. Lake-enhanced showers are possible as upper troughing persists across the region on Sunday and snow may mix with rain across NE OH/NW PA if precip persists into Sunday night. Highs will be below normal in the 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday and lows will begin to trend colder starting Saturday night. Minimum temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night will give way to lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer in the western fringes of the area Monday night. At this point, frost seems unlikely Saturday night due to elevated winds/clouds and marginal temperatures Saturday night, but freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night. Additional headlines are likely Monday night, primarily in the eastern half of the area. Temperatures will return to slightly above normal values Tuesday through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The airspace starts with VFR conditions this morning with mid- level clouds across the region. Some isolated rain showers exist with some isentropic lift across Northeast Ohio into NW PA and there could be a brief shower at KYNG or KERI. The main show for today will be an incoming cold front that will allow for another round of showers and storms across the region. Early convection in NW OH should just be rain after dawn at KTOL and KFDY. However, convection should flare up over North Central Ohio and allow for some clusters of thunderstorms to move through the remaining terminals during the afternoon hours. Have some TEMPO groups timed in across the area for the best chance of TS. Behind the front, some wrap around precipitation could allow for rain to persist for the NE OH and NW PA terminals. Clouds will erode from the west during the evening hours. However, ceilings will persist down wind of Lake Erie and may fall to MVFR as winds shift to the west and northwest with the cold air advection. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday with rain continuing Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Modest southwest flow continues across Lake Erie this morning ahead of a cold front. This cold front will allow for more shower and storm activity across the lake today before flipping light flow to the northwest tonight. Weak high pressure will enter on Friday keeping winds below 10 kts and variable. A warm front will enter on Friday night and restore southerly flow to the lake. This southerly flow will increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front and there is potential for 20 kts of offshore flow. The cold front will cross the lake on Saturday night and shift flow to the west. A trough will remain over the lake on Sunday and keep westerly winds elevated in the 15 to 20 kt range and could be enough to generate some 4 ft waves for the eastern half of the lake. There could be the need for a Small Craft Advisory. High pressure will build into the region for Monday and shift winds to the northwest and allow for them to diminish. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic  311 FXUS63 KLBF 160823 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A combination of warm temperatures, very low humidity, and gusty south winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. - Light rain and snow is possible for areas west of HWY 83 on Friday. Any accumulations are expected to remain light at this time. - Near critical fire weather concerns are expected Saturday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday through Wednesday. - Temperatures warm back into the 80s Monday through Wednesday with dry conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. As broad surface cyclogenesis persists across portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming into this afternoon, southerly flow quickly strengthens across the area today in response. This strengthening warm advection will boost temperatures aloft to near the 90th percentile climo, and promotes a very warm day across the area. Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s, some 20 to 25 degrees above average for mid-April. Unfortunately, these warm temperatures will combine with dry dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, and push relative humidity values as low as 10 to 15 percent this afternoon. As ample diurnal mixing taps into higher momentum flow aloft, wind gusts from the south increase to as high as 25 to 35 miles per hour for all. This combination of warm, dry, and gusty conditions will lead to critical fire weather concerns. See no reason to change inherited Red Flag Warnings across all of western and north central Nebraska. By tonight, the aforementioned surface low will eject southeast across the Dakotas, and into eastern Nebraska by sunrise Friday. This will drag a strong cold front through the area, with a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also promote ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 35 to 45 mile per hour northerly gusts can be expected overnight into Friday morning after frontal passage. This will also usher in a much colder airmass for Friday, with highs largely struggling to leave the 40s amid the continued cold advection and persistent cloudiness. Light rain and snow is also possible on Friday, as the mid-level low quickly translates across the area by early Friday evening. This will briefly increase FGEN west of HWY 83, and guidance suggests a quick moving band of light precipitation in association with this. Impacts look to remain limited with this, as QPF continues to look light. NBM probabilities of even >0.10" only peak as high as 20-40%, with the highest probabilities confined to areas west of HWY 61. Though thermodynamic profiles briefly may support snow, warm ground temps should hinder most accumulations. At this time, a dusting of snow will be possible west of HWY 83, though confidence in this is low. As the system quickly departs by late Friday afternoon, clearing skies and weakening winds should set up very efficient radiational cooling overnight. Lows Friday night fall into the lower to middle 20s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 After a cold start with readings in the 20s, gusty northwesterly winds will develop during the morning, persisting into the afternoon hours. H85 temps Saturday afternoon range from -2C in the northeast to 3C in the southwest. With abundant mixing expected, highs will reach into the middle and upper 50s across the area. A very dry airmass will settle into the forecast area Friday night with forecast surface dew points in the lower teens Saturday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds (better than 80% chance for gusts over 25 MPH) and low relative humidities (15 to 20 percent) will lead to near critical fire weather conditions across the area at a minimum Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are possible over SW Nebraska. For now, decided to hold off on a fire weather watch given the current RFW headlines and will highlight the threat with our DSS packet and the HWO. Surface high pressure will settle in across central Nebraska overnight Saturday night. With dry air in place, clear skies and light winds, several hours of sub-freezing temperatures appear likely with lows in the middle 20s Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will build east of the area Sunday, while upper level ridging builds into the Intermountain West. Warmer air will push into the area with H85 temps reaching into the mid to upper teens C by afternoon-leading to highs in the middle 60s to upper 70s. Once again, with surface dew points in the single digits to teens Sunday, afternoon relative humidity will fall off to 10 to 20 percent across the area. Winds will be lighter Sunday generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range, so critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated ATTM. Ridging will remain in place across the Intermountain West Monday and Tuesday, before migrating east onto the plains Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Low level moisture advection will hold off until Wednesday night, so near critical to critical minimum RH of 10 to 15 percent is expected Monday, 15 to 20 percent Tuesday and 15 to 30 percent Wednesday. Winds Monday and Tuesday have a low potential to hit 25+ MPH with the greatest threat for >25 MPH winds being Wednesday. All three days will see at least elevated fire weather conditions with near critical or critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday. No precipitation is anticipated Monday through Wednesday with the next chance Wednesday night into Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Expect a few to scattered high clouds to drift across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Winds will become southwesterly late this morning and will gust up to 30 KTS through the afternoon hours. A slight decrease in wind speed is expected this evening with an abrupt shift in wind direction to the northwest after 04z Friday for the KVTN terminal. The wind shift will hold off until after the forecast period for the KLBF terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are likely today and this evening across all of western and north central Nebraska. Afternoon minimum RH will reach 9 to 15 percent with southerly wind gusts up to 35 MPH. A strong cold front later tonight, will lead to cooler temperatures, limiting fire weather concerns for Friday and Friday night. By Saturday, gusty northerly winds and very dry air will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent. This coupled with a high probability of wind gusts above 25 MPH will lead to near critical or critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Looking forward, Sunday through Wednesday will see, at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions across the area. Monday and Wednesday have the greatest chance of seeing critical minimum RH and wind gusts above 25 MPH. On those days, near critical or critical fire weather conditions appear probable. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler FIRE WEATHER...Buttler  016 FXUS63 KDVN 160826 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 326 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong spring storm system will impact our area Friday afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. - Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front, bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area. Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today A shortwave trough and attendant surface low will shift east of the area today into the Lower Great Lakes. Mid- level height rises and a weak area of surface high pressure will build in through the day, setting up quiet conditions for a change with mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain above normal due to plenty of sun pushing highs into the lower 70s north to mid 70s along I-80 and low 80s in the far southwest. Today will be a much needed break from the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms this week, especially for areas north of I-80 that have been hit the hardest with bouts of flooding. Friday Unfortunately, only a short reprieve from the active weather is expected as a deep upper trough and strong cold front move through the Midwest on Friday into Friday night. This system will set the stage for another round of severe storms across the Upper Mississippi Valley region with southerly flow ahead of the cold front advecting an anomalously warm and moist air mass northward. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s NW to mid 80s far south with dewpoints in the ~mid 60s on average, making it feel more like an early summer day than mid April. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable into Friday afternoon/evening with SBCAPE building to 2000-3000 J/kg (per the HREF) which will coincide with notable 500mb height falls/large scale ascent. With the ample instability and sufficient deep layer shear (0-6 km between 35-45 kts), conditions will be favorable for organized convection and severe weather which may come in two rounds. The first round may be the development of isolated to scattered supercells or multicell clusters during the mid/late afternoon along a subtle pre- frontal trough axis, out ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Then the subsequent round looks to come in the form of a robust squall line/QLCS during the evening to early nighttime, bringing with it potential for significant straight-line winds and mesovortices/QLCS tornadoes. Friday could bring some significant severe weather to portions of the area with all severe weather hazards possible; the primary threats being damaging winds (possibly 70+ mph) and isolated tornadoes. Another potential hazard, given the wet antecedent conditions, is localized flash flooding for areas that get hit by repeated rounds of storms with locations north of I-80 most susceptible. SPC's latest severe outlook for Friday has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) area-wide and WPC has a Slight Risk for flash flooding (level 2 of 4). Continue to keep up with the forecast for Friday as we will be able to provide more details on timing, location, and specific hazards. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in, bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with counties roughly along and north of I-80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north half or so will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this timeframe. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with mostly clear skies. Breezy NW winds will make it feel rather chilly, especially on Saturday. Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The widespread thunderstorm activity has moved east and south of the region, though a small area of storms will be near DBQ in northeast Iowa just before 06Z, and a couple isolated showers / possible storms will dot areas south into the night. Thus, a very widely scattered shower could impact terminals, but the majority of time will be dry. Some MVFR cigs are possible in northeast Iowa overnight, as low pressure moves into Wisconsin, otherwise VFR conditions will persist through Thursday into Thursday evening, as very pleasant weather moves in, for just one day before more storms arrive Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Gunkel/Uttech AVIATION...Ervin  561 FXUS63 KMKX 160827 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 327 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue into this morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of southern Wisconsin until 7 am CDT, with the watch in effect for southeast portions of the forecast area until 1 pm CDT. - Another round of heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon into Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today through Friday: A shortwave and associated surface low will gradually shift eastward through southern Wisconsin through the overnight and morning hours. Elevated instability will persist during this period, with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms likely. The storms will be generally slow moving, with lingering precipitable water values of 1- 1.25 inches resulting in a chance for locally heavy rainfall. Given the recent rounds of rainfall, across the area, the Flood Watch has been extended until 1 pm CDT today across southeast portions of the forecast area, with the watch remaining in effect until 7 am CDT elsewhere. Southeast areas have seen some of the higher rain totals and the lingering showers/storms are expected to bring the highest additional amounts to the southeast. Will have to monitor the possibility for another round of fog in north/northeast areas overnight into the early morning hours today. Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Sheboygan County until 10 AM, and will be monitoring for additional expansions eastward into Fond du Lac, Marquette, and Green Lake Counties through dawn. After the rain winds down by early afternoon, clouds are expected to be slow to exit. Could be enough clearing by mid to late afternoon for temps to crack 70 in the west, with cooler conditions likely towards the east. Light southeast winds Thursday night may result in a period of low clouds and fog in the east, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. The southerly winds will keep temps from falling much, with lows in the low 50s most places, except for cooler conditions in the east. Confidence continues to increase in another round of potentially severe storms on Friday, in addition to more heavy rain and flooding concerns. Latest models have generally maintained the faster frontal timing, with the cold front likely approaching or reaching the western forecast area by early evening. Currently looks like there will be plenty of instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable wind fields for severe storms, as a 50 kt LLJ leans into the area from the west. Given current model timing, could see supercell development initially in the west, with downstream growth into a line of storms. All severe hazards will be possible with this round of storms, with flash flooding also a concern as precipitable water values ramp back up to around 1.5 inches. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Much cooler conditions prevail through this weekend behind the Friday evening/night cold front. Conditions will feel noticeably chillier after the warmth and humidity of this week, with highs either in the upper 40s or low 50s each day. Blustery & breezy northwest winds will lead to feels-like temperatures in the 30s through most of the day Saturday. Overnight lows will fall below freezing Saturday night, with continued breezy northwest winds leading to wind chills in the 20s areawide Sunday morning. Temperatures will trend upward in short order through the start of next week as winds turn back out of the south and southwest. After Friday night's round of storms, some much needed drier conditions appear to be in store from Saturday into the middle part of next week. Next rain chances appear to return by Wednesday night ahead of the next upper disturbance. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Periods of showers and storms are expected overnight into the morning hours, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Winds will generally be light and variable into the morning as low pressure gradually moves through the area. Could see some fog again overnight into this morning, particularly from Fond du Lac to Sheboygan. Low clouds will also increase overnight across southern Wisconsin under the low, with gradually improving conditions west to east late this morning through the afternoon hours as the low pulls away. Light southeast winds are anticipated tonight ahead of the next approaching low, with low clouds and fog possible in the east. Looking ahead to Friday, severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible again later afternoon into the night. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A stationary front will gradually slide south this morning. This front will likely exit the lake to the south around midday with light north to northwest flow prevailing behind it. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight now and may need to be continued into Friday as we maintain warmer temperatures and fairly moist air over the lake. Additionally, areas of showers and storms will continue to move over the southern third to half of Lake Michigan this morning with additional storms later this morning as additional convection to the west continues to develop and slide east. Storms are not expected to be strong at this time, however. Winds will become light and variable briefly tonight as a weak ridge passes over the lake, with winds then becoming southerly and breezy Friday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Gusty northwest winds then return following a cold front Friday night. Thunderstorms are becoming more likely Friday evening into early Saturday morning, with gusty winds and small hail. Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Friday afternoon and evening with breezy south winds and high waves. Kuroski .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 7 AM Thursday. Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ052 until 10 AM Thursday. Flood Watch...WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070- WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM Thursday. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  163 FXUS65 KRIW 160828 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 228 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will move across the state and bring snow and rain changing to snow today and tonight. The highest snowfall amounts will be in the western mountains. Gusty wind will bring blow and drift the snow at times. - A hard freeze is likely (4 out of 5 chance) in the lower elevations to the East of the Divide Friday night. - Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 There have times through my rather lengthy meteorology career that I have felt guilty for things. And this is a system when I am having these feelings. The last time I did the forecast, back on early Monday morning, it looked like we had a decent chance of some badly needed moisture across the area. However, trends for much of the area that need the moisture, like the Green River, Wind River and Big Horn Basins, have been for less and less moisture. At the time, chances looked rather good. Needless to say, chances have diminished substantially over the past few days. Radar now shows the first area of precipitation moving into western Wyoming. The cold front is still back in Idaho, so snow levels remain fairly high right now, generally above 7500 feet. Snow will levels will gradually drop through the night and day. As for highlights in western Wyoming, these still look reasonable. Probabilistic guidance shows at least a 2 out of 3 chance of 8 inches or more across most of the warned area. Thought about a Winter Weather Advisory for the Salt and Wyoming Range, but the only areas with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of new snow or more are the highest elevation above the mountain passes. So, we will hold off for now. In the valleys and lower elevations, no location has more than a 1 in 6 chance of 4 inches or more, so no highlights here. Some snow will continue through Thursday night, but the bulk of the snow will fall through midnight with light snow following that. In Sweetwater County, with some surface instability, snow squalls will be possible late today and this evening with the front, mainly to the east of Rock Springs. Amounts here should remain under 3 inches though. The only areas with a greater than 1 in 3 chance are across far southern Sweetwater County where impacts will be slim to none. Any snow squalls could be handled by short fused statements. And now on the area where I feel guilty, East of the Divide. Trends continue to be down in this area. I gave serious thought to canceling the advisories for the Wind River Basin and Lander foothills. However, I am holding off now for a few reasons. For one, guidance is indicating some instability, with up to 250 J/Kg of CAPE this afternoon with lifted indices as low as minus 1. In addition, the area will be under the right rear quadrant of the jet this evening. This could lead to some snow squalls as the front moves through the area this afternoon and evening. The other is a feature I saw on the GFS early this morning. There is the presence of a weak 700 millibar circulation around midnight tonight near the Natrona / Fremont County border, giving a decent amount of QPF (as much as a a quarter of an inch). If this further moves a bit further west, it could impact Riverton and Lander. Eastern portions of the basin still have a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches of snow as well. So, we will leave them up for now. Highlights still look good for Johnson and Natrona Counties though, with most probabilistic guidance giving at least a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches of snow or more. In this area, the highest impact will be Thursday night. Wind will also be an issue, especially in the favored northwest flow / cold advection locations, like Johnson County and the Bighorn Basin, bring blowing snow and more impacts with gusts over 40 mph at times later this afternoon and evening. Conditions should begin to improve on Friday as the trough and front move away to the east. Unstable northwest flow and cyclonic curvature will keep snow showers going through much of the day. Then we turn to Friday night with the potential for a freeze. As I have stated before, the concern is not with crops and gardens as Wyoming residents know not to plant this early. The main concern will be for flower gardens, trees and sprinkler systems. The variables remain the same. First, if it can clear out enough. Chances are better for this across the north and west, with decreasing chances further south. The other is snow cover, chances of lows below 20 have decreased somewhat across the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin with the smaller amounts of snow reducing albedo. Probabilistic guidance still gives a greater than 2 in 3 chance of lows below 25 across almost all the area though. We will hold off on any freeze products with the greater concern of the snow but some will likely be needed. The remainder of the forecast period looks largely tranquil as ridging builds back over the Rockies for this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will begin to moderate Saturday and likely return to near to above normal levels by Sunday for most. Most areas look dry and warm from Monday through at least Wednesday. The next system is the form of an upper level low may then approach for later next week with the next chance of moisture but these are very fickle this far out so details are still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Across western Wyoming rain will transition to snow by Thursday morning. Conditions will hover right around VFR/MVFR through most of the TAF period, but a heavier band of snow is possible (30%) from 09- 13Z Thursday morning, which may drop conditions to IFR. Conditions should improve Thursday afternoon before a snow band moves in Thursday evening dropping conditions back to MVFR/IFR at KJAC. At KBPI and KPNA chances are too low for prevailing precipitation, but there is a 30% chance of some rain showers late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Rain showers will develop at KRKS Thursday afternoon, with some isolated thunder possible (30%). Rain will transition to snow at KRKS late Thursday afternoon, with snow ending by 03Z Friday. A cold front will pass through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with wind shifting from southwest to northwest behind the front. Wind will remain breezy through the TAF period, with strong wind from mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. Mountain obscuration will be prevalent through the TAF period. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals VFR conditions prevail through Thursday morning, but rain will spread east of the Continental Divide Thursday afternoon and quickly transition to snow Thursday evening. Most Terminals will have minimal impacts. KCPR is the exception as convective rain/snow bands will develop Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Conditions will drop to MVFR at a minimum and probably IFR at KCPR Thursday evening once rain transitions to snow. Depending on how intense the bands are rain may transition to snow late Thursday afternoon at KCPR. AT KRIW, KLND, and KWRL PROB30 groups have been added Thursday afternoon for a rain/snow mix. At KCOD and KWRL there will be a better chance for prevailing light snow showers and MVFR conditions Thursday evening. A cold front will pass through Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with wind shifting from southwest to northwest behind the front. Wind will remain breezy through the TAF period, with strong wind from mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. Mountain obscuration will become more frequent once the front passes through Thursday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Rowe  518 FXUS63 KFSD 160829 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 329 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical and critical fire danger on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and west of US Highway 59. Elevated to near critical fire danger persists through Saturday. - A strong cold front moves through the area late tonight into Friday. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of US Highway 14. && .UPDATE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 More benign weather to start this Thursday, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 50s and clear skies over the area. Light winds at the time of this discussion will begin to increase toward daybreak and shift more to the southwest. Although a couple of sites are showing less than 10 SM of visibility, winds look to be just strong enough to prevent fog development. Forecast remains on track today with very warm temperatures in the 80s and very low humidity. These factors combined with the breezy to strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 35 mph lead to near critical and critical fire conditions. Red Flag Warnings are in effect this afternoon and evening. More details in the Fire Weather section. Use extreme caution to prevent sparks and fire starts; fires will spread quickly today! Breezy to gusty winds continue tonight as a cold front moves through into early Friday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected. Temperatures fall back to below seasonal normals behind the cold front. Elevated fire danger continues Friday. No change to the Day 2 SPC Outlook for severe weather potential, which shows a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for areas southeast of Ida Grove to Storm Lake. Confidence in storm development in our area is low (less than 30%) with most guidance already pushing the cold front through our area by late morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Winds have gone light and variable across the area but are expected to pick up out of the south through the rest of the overnight hours. Skies are expected to remain clear for the day tomorrow with winds further veering to out of the southwest. Winds will also strengthen tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to about 25 to 30 knots expected. Winds will remain breezy through the rest of the TAF period. There could be some low level wind shear to end the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Red Flag Warning has been expanded toward the US Hwy 59 corridor in southwestern MN and northwestern IA, now in effect from noon to 8 PM for most of the area. Areas in the Red Flag Warning have the highest confidence of minimum RH values at or below 25% and coincident southwest wind gusts around or above 25 mph. Further east, confidence is lower and duration of near to critical fire danger is shorter. Additionally, this area to the east has also seen the most precipitation over the last few days. Expansion east may be needed later today if we are drier and/or breezier than current forecast suggests. Extreme caution should be used today as any fire will likely spread quickly due to these strong winds and very low humidity values. Winds tonight remain breezy with a shift through the overnight hours from more southerly to northwesterly as a cold front swings through the area. Northwesterly winds remain strong on Friday, with gusts around 35-40 mph (strongest in south central SD). Cooler and falling temperatures with early day precipitation chances should keep minimum RH values above 35%. That said, elevated to possibly near critical conditions are expected with the strong winds, which may be enough to overcome higher RH in areas which have not received as much precipitation or have seen as much green up over the last few days. Breezy northwest winds remain in place Saturday gusting again 30-40 mph with temperatures near seasonal norms. Much drier air moves into the region though, which will plummet minimum RH values between 20 and 30% across the area. Again, elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001-012-020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers FIRE WEATHER...SG  421 FXUS66 KEKA 160830 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 130 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. Breezy winds forecasted for Lake County through the end of the week. More rain expected late weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Generally, rain has ended for NW CA. This frontal system will now force northerly winds throughout the region as the front moves southeasterly and cold air fills into the area. In general, coastal areas and higher terrain locations will be gustier. Through Thursday morning and especially in the afternoon, strong northerlies will develop in Lake County for the higher terrain areas in the eastern and southern portions of the county. Due to this frontal passage, much colder and drier air will advect over the region. In response, snow levels drop down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,000ft for Humboldt Co. This drop did not create much snow for areas outside of the mountains in northern Trinity Co. However, this colder air will increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area overnight through the week. Observations show temperatures plummeting due to lack of insulating cloud coverage for the interior areas. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings. Thursday morning, Freeze Warnings have been issued for some of the coldest interior valleys, along with Frost Advisories for most coastal areas. The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rain beginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to 0.75" at lake level in Lake county and in the valleys of southern Mendocino counties. JLW&DS && .AVIATION...Robust N-NE winds 1000 to 2000 feet AGL will develop tonight into early Thursday morning in the wake of a cold front. Low level wind shear and shallow turbulence are expected, especially around KUKI by 08Z. Gusty northerly winds are forecast to quickly mix down during the morning hours on Thursday at coastal aerodromes. Peak wind gusts around 30 kt are forecast by afternoon at both KACV and KCEC. Turbulent and rough conditions are probable for small and light weight aircraft. Otherwise, strong subsidence in the wake of a cold front has been resulting in clearing skies Wednesday night. VFR is expected to continue to prevail through the day on Thursday at all forecast terminals. && .MARINE...Vigorous cold front has been producing gusty northerly winds Wednesday evening. Wind gusts were close to gale at buoy #14 NW of Pt Arena with gusts to 33 kt. Elsewhere, northerlies have been sub-gale, gusting to 22-30 kt. Seas have also built to hazardous levels for small vessels, 8 to 9 ft at 8 to 9 seconds. Therefore, the advisories for small craft are on the mark for the remainder of tonight. High resolution mesoscale models, GFS and NBM all indicate northerly winds increasing to gales for mostly the southern waters on Thu. GFS and NBM also indicate gale gusts developing in the afternoon for the northern waters. Thus, a gale warning has been hoisted for the northern outer waters for gusts to 35 kt and steep waves around 11 feet at 8-10 seconds. Steep waves will also continue to build through the day on Thursday and peak Thursday night. Max significant wave heights are projected to hit 13 feet in the southern waters and 11 feet in the northern waters. On Friday, elevated seas will steadily subside through the day as winds diminish below gale. By Saturday, a lighter wind regime is forecast as an offshore frontal system breaks down the offshore ridge. Moderate southerly breezes are forecast to develop in advance of the front Sat night into Sunday. Borderline advisory level winds will be possible (40% chance) with gusts over 22 kt on Sunday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ101-103- 104-109-112. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ102- 105>108-110-111-113>115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  745 FXUS64 KHUN 160831 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 331 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is a low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday (mainly afternoon and evening). A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - There is a high (60-80%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fairly benign weather early this morning across the Tennessee Valley, with just some passing cirrus clouds overhead and a broad area of high pressure to the south resulting a light southwest winds. Later today however, we'll see the first precipitation we've had in 10-11 days as a weak shortwave ripples from the Mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians over the next 24 hour hours. This will sent a weak front further south and east along the I-40 corridor of Tennessee and Arkansas, serving as a focus for some convection late this morning into the afternoon. This activity should be more scattered in nature, especially as it pushes south and east, with low to medium PoPs of around 20-50% from the late afternoon into the evening hours. 30-40 kts of bulk shear should allow for some organized clusters of storms, with the inverted-v profile exhibiting the potential for some localized gusty, damaging winds (especially for areas along and north of the Tennessee River). The main limiting factor for anything strong to severe will be the modest instability (SBCAPE values around 400-600 J/kg in the late afternoon) and a stout capping inversion aloft by the evening which will limit our thermodynamic environment after sunset. Thus, think there could be the potential for a few strong storms, but the probability of any severe storms is low. Otherwise another warm day, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s once again. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the afternoon hours tomorrow, convection-allowing models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of a trailing outflow boundary (extending from western AR into southern MO). As large scale ascent strengthens with the approach of an amplifying mid-level wave, this activity may tend to evolve into a small but somewhat organized cluster of storms as it spreads southeastward late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening, before gradually dissipating later tomorrow evening as it becomes displaced from the initiating trough. Although the system should be weakening as it tracks across our CWFA, a second round of rain and some thunderstorms may occur early tomorrow evening, accompanied by a risk for locally strong wind gusts (especially across northwest AL). Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible in locations that are fortunate enough to receive measurable rainfall as temps drop into the u50s-l60s. South-southwesterly flow will resume on Friday as a surface low develops north-northeastward (from eastern NE into western Lake Superior) in response to an intensifying trough tracking eastward across southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. With a developing subsidence inversion in the mid-levels expected to result in mostly sunny skies and dry conditions on Friday, afternoon temps will return to the m-u 80s, which may fall just shy of record highs for the day. Overnight lows will drop into the l-m 60s Saturday morning. Latest short range model guidance still suggests that rapid intensification of the northern stream trough will support steady deepening of the related surface low as it tracks northeastward across eastern OT and into northern QC by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, a cold front will spread southeastward, likely reaching northwestern AL late Saturday afternoon and exiting our forecast area by Midnight. After diminishing in coverage during the morning hours on Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the southern portion of the cold front Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and a lingering layer of stable air aloft begins to erode with the approach of the mid-level trough. With mid-level WSW flow predicted to increase into the 50-60 knot range Saturday evening, deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized storm clusters, capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. However, this will likely be more of a concern across northwest AL where instability will be maximized around the time of frontal passage. In the wake of the front, a 2-4 hour window of light rain can be expected, as winds veer to the north and begin to advect a cooler continental airmass into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will be swinging from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the eastern seaboard through Monday. Ridging tries to build in the wake of this through midweek, but a few shortwave ripples are shown to dive into the region from the mid Mississippi River Valley during this time. At the surface, a cold front will have passed to our southeast by Sunday morning, with high pressure from western Canada and the northwest CONUS pushing into the Southeastern states. This feature will largely maintain its hold on the eastern CONUS until it is shunted eastward through midweek by a system sweeping over Canada. For sensible weather for the local area, there may be some lingering showers early Sunday morning from the system that is slated to move through on Saturday (discussed above), but much of the long term period looks to be dry. Although, we will need to keep an eye on Wednesday, as some guidance hints at the potential (albeit low probability) for the aformentioned upper shortwaves to bring some rain to the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is low at this point due to model discrepancies, but stay tuned! Don't pack those jackets away for the season just yet, since it will be fairly cool to start the week. Cold air advection from the high pressure moving in from the northwest CONUS and western Canada will result in highs topping out in the 60s Sunday afternoon and forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night! Monday will be pleasant with highs in the lower 70s with lows in the 40s that night. Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on if you like or dislike cooler weather), temperatures will then begin to moderate once again through midweek. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Winds will become gusty late this morning and afternoon out SW/WSW between 10-15 kts before weakening after sunset. A weak front will approach the area from the northwest, bringing some -SHRA during the late morning through mid afternoon and have added a PROB30 highlight this. Overall, VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each terminal through the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP  632 FXUS63 KAPX 160834 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 434 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Ongoing widespread historic flooding to continue, with some improvements possible in areas that see little to no rainfall over the next 36 hours. -Additional shower and thunder potential today, most concentrated south of M-72, especially near Saginaw Bay. -Following a dry break Friday, a larger system is set to move in Friday night through Saturday, bringing more shower / thunder potential to ALL of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. -Trending sharply cooler with snow chances Sunday before moderating to near normal with minimal rain chances through midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Active southern stream pattern to carry through Friday, albeit with some caveats for northern Michigan. Strongest low level jet dynamics will remain downstate, suppressing the concentration of instability and moisture pooling downstate and points south tonight. Well- defined convectively driven shortwave currently across western Iowa will ride the corridor of SWerly subtropical jet flow, with associated surface low pressure riding the stalled frontal boundary draped across Michigan. Result will be a return of scattered thunderstorms into the day Thursday, particularly across northern lower Michigan. In the wake of this shortwave, a brief window of ridging folds overhead as surface high pressure and subsidence aloft passes over the region, bringing a brief reprieve. This will be short lived as a potent northern stream trough currently over the Pacific northwest will make an eastward advance, forcing ridging and surface high pressure east of the Great Lakes, resulting in the return of more rain and thunder Friday night into Saturday. The backside of this system will deliver a sharply colder airmass with a polar surface high building to start next week, with a seasonable moderating trend commencing with time. Details: Current boundary position generally from Frankfort to Rogers City, with little northward advancement expected over the next 36 hours. This does induce some changes from previous forecast cycles, with deeper moisture content overlapping instability suppressed south. There is potential now for far northern areas of northern lower to completely miss out on rain showers through Friday morning, which is some welcome news for flooding impacts. Light rain showers set to prevail for M-32 and south the rest of tonight and into Thursday. Though if the southern trend in guidance continues, this line may be suppressed as far south as M-72. Lack of instability will limit thunder potential for most... but south of M-55, just enough instability may be present to drive some convection and thus higher rainfall rates, especially closer to Saginaw Bay. As far as additional rainfall through Friday morning is concerned... looking at a general 0.10" or less north of M-72. For those south of M-72, looking more like 0.25-0.50", with localized 0.75"+. The area with the best shot to see upwards of 1.50" of rain is Gladwin and Arenac counties... though that may also get suppressed to the US 10 corridor. So still some monitoring to be had regarding ongoing flooding. The other story tonight will be the prevalence of fog across the region away from the steadier rain to the south. This in itself may limit instability for this afternoon, especially north of the frontal boundary. Otherwise... a break in the action Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Next item of interest will be the system passing through Friday night into Saturday. Occluding and closing off surface low moving eastward across the US / Canada border to our NW will lead to the reinvigoration of the low level jet into the Great Lakes, with another Gulf moisture tap ahead of an advancing cold / occluded frontal boundary. Global models are admittedly struggling with this process... and pattern recognition says this does favor showers and thunderstorms with heavier rainfall across the region. Will have to see how transient this is... orientation of the boundary parallel to the strongest 850mb flow makes me skiddish on saying this will be a fully transient feature. And with potential for heavy rain producing thunderstorms, this needs to be watched closely. Overall, most places probably see an additional 0.25-0.75" of rain Friday night through Saturday night, with localized totals exceeding 1.50". The other issue this system presents is that this time, rainfall may actually make it into eastern upper, a region still nursing a surprisingly resilient snowpack. So hydro concerns may quickly ramp up for our Yooper friends. Beyond this system, a pretty stellar cold intrusion makes an appearance into Sunday with highs falling back into the 30s for the most part... with snow shower chances. Heading into next week, we do slowly moderate back to more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Cigs/vsbys will worsen tonight, as low clouds/stratus expands, and as SHRA move in from the sw. Already LIFR at CIU/PLN/APN, and IFR/LIFR will expand into TVC/MBL. Conditions will improve Thursday afternoon and evening. Light northerly breezes. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...JZ  586 FXUS65 KREV 160835 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 135 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north winds with localized areas of blowing dust this afternoon after passage of a cold front. * Sub-freezing temperatures will pose impacts to agriculture and irrigation Thursday night into Friday morning. * Unsettled weather returns Sunday into early next week with renewed chances of gusty winds and showers. && .DISCUSSION... A low pressure system is currently cycling over the Pacific Northwest, helping drive a cold front from northeastern Oregon into northcentral Nevada. Precip associated with this cold front, as seen on radar, has been relatively light so far. The best chances for precip (20-50%), which will be of the snow variety, will be in Pershing county early morning. While chances for accumulating snow have dropped below 10%, expect slick roads along I-80 past Fernley this morning. Brisk northerly winds may bring patches of blowing dust and reduced visibilities for the Basin and Range, south of Lovelock, today. Wind gusts will be strongest (35 to 45 mph) in Mineral county near Walker Lake and along US-6 in Mono county. Otherwise, typical afternoon breezes for the Sierra and Sierra Front. It'll be much colder today, though, with highs in the mid to low 50s for valleys and upper 40s for Sierra communities. Friday morning will be very cold areawide, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s. As such, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for NE CA, the Sierra Front, N Washoe county, the Surprise Valley, and W NV Basin and Range. Please see the product for details on the range of low temperatures expected. Take the time today to protect pipes and sensitive plants. Clearing skies may also allow for patches of freezing fog Friday morning, especially around agricultural areas and areas of low- lying water, though confidence remains low. A pleasant weekend is in store, with another weather system poised to bring impacts by late Sunday. Model guidance continues to fluctuate on the timing and placement of the low pressure system. However, expect an uptick in winds Sunday and through Tuesday, with precipitation chances returning by Monday afternoon. -Giralte && .AVIATION... LLWS is expected to subside by sunrise this morning for all terminals due to the passage of the cold front to our north. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals today. The only exception may be KTRK where patchy FZFG could develop after 06Z, bringing localized LIFR/IFR conditions. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday NVZ001- 003>005. CA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday CAZ070- 071. && $$  090 FXUS63 KLOT 160840 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - We'll be monitoring for fog development this evening into early Friday, with the highest chance for dense fog near the lake. - Following an unseasonably warm and breezy Friday afternoon, yet another severe weather threat is anticipated late day Friday into Friday evening, especially near and west of I-39. There will also be an areawide threat for flash flooding. - Cooler air arrives into early next week and may bring frost/freeze concerns early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Through Friday Night: The pattern regionally will be much quieter today through Friday morning, giving a brief break to dry out ahead of the final storm system in the very active/stormy pattern over the past week. As the main mid-upper trough axis over the mid and upper MS Valley early this morning shifts over the central Great Lakes by early to mid afternoon, expect widely scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to focus over the northeast 1/3 to 1/2 or so of the CWA. A lake breeze slowly pushing inland may provide additional focus to modestly enhance coverage near the lake. Precipitable waters merely a bit above average for mid April (vs. prior summer-like values this week) will still be sufficient for localized downpours with any deeper cores, but limited coverage will keep flooding potential below 5%. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s (warmest south of I-80) for most today, though note that temps will fall into the 50s near the lake this afternoon. Attention for late today through tonight will turn to pre- existing fog and very low stratus over southern Lake Michigan. Onshore winds (and cooling temps/decreasing T/Td spreads) in the wake of the lake breeze passage this afternoon could enable patchy fog to bleed inland near the shoreline prior to sunset this evening. Weak surface high pressure building over the lake will be conducive for a period of good radiational cooling and associated fog development and/or lakeshore fog slowly oozing inland. While confidence isn't all that high in the fog potential with inland extent, there's been enough of a signal for patchy fog mention over the northeast half of the CWA. Where confidence is higher, near the lake in northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana, indicated areas of fog. Strengthening southerly flow aloft in the pre-dawn hours of Friday may help erode some of the fog, with the possible exception of near the Illinois shore. Friday will be the last summer-like warm and breezy day of this stretch, out ahead of an elongated surface low lifting towards western Lake Superior. Expect highs in the low to locally mid 80s away from the far northeast IL shore (which will reach the 70s towards evening), and southerly winds gusting up to 30-35 mph. Lingering lower dew points from underneath the departing surface high, south-southeast winds to offset surface moisture return with eastward extent, and parched mid-levels will yield a fairly sharp instability gradient from the MS River to the longitude of Lake Michigan by mid Friday afternoon. The big question marks for the severe setup are with respect to timing of convective initiation near the MS River and storm mode upon approach into northwest and north central Illinois late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening. Deep layer shear will once again be supportive of severe weather. If CI occurs earlier (by ~3-5pm) and sufficiently close to our far western CWA counties, there may be a play for initial discrete/semi- discrete supercells with an attendant damaging hail threat. Even in northwest IL, fairly large T/Td spreads may serve to limit an appreciable supercellular tornado threat. After possible initial discrete mode, there should be a quick transition to linear/QLCS as cold frontal forcing takes hold. The CI timing question is thus also important in terms of far east a damaging wind (and embedded QLCS tornado threat) will reach Friday evening until the threat wanes overnight Friday night. The drier profiles into the Chicago metro and points south will be deeply mixed with inverted V characteristics at the low levels. So even if storms get going early and transition to a weakening squall line outracing the instability gradient, an earlier arrival would still entail a severe wind threat with outflow dominant segments. All in all, SPC's initial day 2 outlook appears reasonable for the setup, with a 3/5 threat level (enhanced risk) near/west of I-39 tapering to a 1/5 threat level (marginal risk) near/east of I-57. A very progressive MCS/QLCS Friday night would limit the residence time of torrential rainfall and the associated flooding threat. However, with the very rainy stretch of late for much of the area and already elevated river levels, it won't take much for renewed rises and localized flash flooding. Backbuilding of convection behind initial outflow boundary, on the other hand, would correspondingly increase the flood threat, especially for hardest hit areas this week and/or urban areas. Saturday through Wednesday: The most recent model guidance for Saturday has pretty unanimously sped up the timing of the cold frontal passage to yield a mostly dry day for much of if not the entire area. Best chance (30-50%) for any lingering showers past sunrise will be for areas southeast of I-55. Saturday afternoon will trend to partly cloudy to mostly sunny, albeit notably cooler (50s) with blustery west-northwest winds. Cold air advection and dry advection through Saturday night-early Sunday will set the stage for lows in the 30s, possibly flirting with freezing across parts of interior northern IL. Following a cool and breezy Sunday, ~1030 mb high pressure over the region will likely be conducive to at least areas of frost as temps dip to the low-mid 30s outside of Chicago, if not colder in spots. Agricultural interests are advised to monitor forecasts through early next week. Cooler conditions into Monday morning will be short-lived however, with extended guidance favoring a return to high amplitude ridging across the central CONUS and unseasonably warm temperatures returning to the region by midweek next week. Despite the returning warmth next week away from Lake Michigan, a blocky mid-upper pattern will favor much less stormy conditions over the local area, giving a longer period to dry out from this week's rain. Castro && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Forecast concerns include... - Wind directions during the early overnight hours. - Wind shift to northeast Thursday afternoon. - Mvfr cigs overnight into Thursday. - Periodic shower chances. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue moving away from the terminals through the early overnight. There will be continued chances for showers through Thursday afternoon with quite a bit of uncertainty for timing and have included prolonged periods of vicinity shower mention. It appears the best chance for additional showers will be from late morning through early afternoon but timing will need to be adjusted as trends emerge. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but no mention with expected low coverage. Prevailing winds are shifting to the east southeast across northwest IL in the wake of the showers and this southeast shift is expected across the Chicago terminals, at least for a short time, before winds turn back to the southwest early this morning. Confidence is low for specific directions and changes may be needed. Winds may begin to gust into the 20kt range by daybreak as directions slowly turn more westerly Thursday morning. Confidence is also low for winds Thursday afternoon. Directions will likely continue turning to the northwest Thursday afternoon and then a lake breeze boundary is expected to move inland during the mid/late afternoon. Timing confidence has decreased and will need to be refined with later forecasts. Winds will turn southeasterly Thursday evening. Prevailing mvfr cigs are expected to develop overnight, continue Thursday morning then lift to vfr Thursday afternoon. However, low cigs are possible with the lake breeze boundary. In addition, there will likely be fog over Lake Michigan and some of the model guidance is spreading this fog inland Thursday evening and across the Chicago terminals early Friday morning. Confidence is too low to include any lower cigs or fog for ORD/MDW in their new 30 hour tafs and trends will need to be monitored. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  369 FXUS61 KOKX 160849 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 449 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures for today increased by a significant amount across portions of the NY and CT coasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing temperatures Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Today looks like the last hot day of the fcst period. High temps in the 80s to around 90 for most of the area. Had to manually boost temps well abv the NBM for the CT and NY coasts. Brought Montauk up by 11 degrees abv the NBM, which may still end up being too little. Still warm and abv normal on Fri, but high temps only in the 70s and low 80s with falling heights and chcs for shwrs and tstms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A few cells may still pop early this mrng with outflow passing thru the cwa. No upr support so this convection should be limited in extent and intensity. Unstable today, particularly N and W, but with the lack of a trigger tstm development is expected to be low probability attm. Still something to watch in the mesoscale as the day goes on due to expected CAPE and a lack of CIN. The next best chcs are this eve and tngt as heights fall and the sfc boundary drops swd into the area. The sfc boundary looks a bit too displaced from the upr support tngt to support a solid focus and high confidence in development. Stuck with the NBM pops which are only slight chc. Timing of the upr trof for Fri seems a bit too early for optimal tstm support attm. A six hour difference could allow for this to act on enough CAPE to produce some strong low topped convection. For now the NBM was followed which indicates chcs for shwrs thru the day. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Shwrs and embedded tstms likely on Sun with a cold fropa. Timing will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS and AI-GFS right now look a little too quick to support a big event with the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful upr low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so pcpn is still likely with the sys. NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Some spots across the interior may drop blw freezing Sun ngt, then much of the area could drop blw freezing Mon ngt. MGJ MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sun ngt and 25 Mon ngt. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A front remains stalled to the north with waves of low pressure passing along it through the TAF period. Mainly VFR. Dry conditions prevail through the day, before showers become possible across Lower Hudson Valley and S CT terminals (KSWF, KHPN, KBDR, KGON) after 00Z Friday. Brief restrictions possible. Light variable flow early this morning,becoming SW 8-15kt after 12Z with afternoon gusts to around 20 kt possible. Coastal terminals back S or SSW in the afternoon. Flow veers NW into Friday AM. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late Tonight: VFR. Light WNW/NW winds. Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond. Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK:60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$  938 FXUS65 KFGZ 160852 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 152 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for another round of windy conditions today, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona is still on track for a fast moving and dry shortwave trough to brush the area. Current model forecasts have continued the trend of shifting the trough further north. For today, in advance of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty overnight, gradually weakening and shifting to a west to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough heads eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph over much of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph will persist, weakening through Friday afternoon. For Friday night through Saturday...A dry northeast to east flow will develop. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. The exception will be along and south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, for locations where northeast winds tend to funnel, gusts to 25 mph are forecast. From Sunday onward...Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as a longwave trough will start to approach Arizona from over the Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Consequently, look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday, lasting well into next week and gradually shifting to southwest. As the Pacific trough approaches and with a south to southwest flow developing, moisture will be on the increase. A pair of weak passing shortwave disturbances in the general flow will deliver just enough upward motion Sunday and Monday for a slight chance of a light shower or two over the mountains of northern Arizona. The onset of southerly flow will introduce a milder air mass with temperatures moderating to above seasonal averages both day and night. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...VFR conditions with light and variable winds, becoming SW 10-20 kts increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/06Z through Sunday 19/06Z...VFR conditions. N-NW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday, shifting to N-NE Friday night, then becoming NE-E 5-15 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Expect dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Today will see south/southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. On Friday winds becoming north/northwest at 10- 15 mph, locally gusting to 30 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. Minimum RH 10-20% each day. Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds northeast/east at 5-15 mph on Saturday with local gusts of 25-30 mph from the Mogollon Rim southward. Winds shifting to southeast/south at 10-20 mph on Sunday and Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  337 FXUS63 KILX 160856 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is currently an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for areas near and west of the Illinois River on Friday where a significant, all-hazards severe weather outbreak looms. - Much cooler temperatures return this weekend, with an attendant frost risk both Saturday night and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid-level shortwave trough is currently situated over east- central Iowa, visible on early morning water vapor imagery. A significant plume of moisture extends from central Arkansas into the lower Great Lakes, coinciding with an area of mostly stratiform rain. Occasional convective activity, indicated by cooling cloud tops and 40 dbz radar echoes, is embedded within this rain shield. This activity is expected to move slowly eastward and exit Illinois shortly after sunrise as the upper trough progresses into north-central Illinois and the low-level jet weakens. Synoptic-scale subsidence and increasing height tendencies will build across central Illinois by midday, effectively ending precipitation chances for most, if not all, of the forecast area. With clouds lifting and breaking behind the departing shortwave, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 70s. While the primary forecast calls for a clear day without further convection, a slight chance of isolated storms exists near and south of Interstate 70 later this afternoon. This is associated with a separate, trailing mid-level shortwave wobbling across the eastern Ozarks and into far southern Illinois. In this area, thermodynamic profiles become more favorable, with steepening mid-level lapse rates boosting MLCAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. However, the potential for widespread, vigorous convective development is limited by fleeting kinematics. As the upper jet core continues its eastward departure, deep layer shear around the time of potential initiation is only forecast to be about 25 kts. Consequently, portions of southern Illinois are outlooked for general thunderstorms today, but not for severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to return Friday. This development is associated with subtle shortwave energy ejecting from the Central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley, occurring ahead of a more potent trough pivoting across the north-central U.S. A highly volatile environment is expected to evolve by Friday afternoon. The advection of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) ahead of a cold front will contribute to increasing mid-level lapse rates and overall buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding the initial storm mode. Several 00z CAMs indicate the potential for isolated supercells to develop well ahead of the cold front, primarily over southeast Iowa and far west-central Illinois late in the afternoon. This activity would be triggered by the subtle shortwave energy and occur near a diffuse dewpoint gradient or pseudo warm front. If such isolated activity develops juxtaposed with an increasing kinematic field (bulk shear of 35 kts), there would be a concern for an isolated, all-hazards supercell risk ahead of the main cold front. If residual capping precludes pre-frontal convection across our area during the late afternoon and early evening hours, then our storm timing and storm mode and storm risks will look a little different. It’s important to note that the main area of convective initiation is expected to occur well to our west during the late afternoon along the cold front. But, with the orientation of the deep-shear vectors becoming parallel to the main forcing, supercells that develop on the cold front are anticipated to gradually grow upscale into a linear MCS as they enter our area later in the evening. As the linear MCS moves into west-central Illinois later in the evening, a continued risk for severe weather is anticipated, lasting well into the overnight hours. Residual supercell structures may persist initially, driven by an increasing low- level jet that elongates the low-level hodograph and enhances 0-3 km SRH. However, the consolidating cold pool, amidst strong low-level CAPE and shear, is expected to support a transition to a mature QLCS. This mature QLCS will likely feature embedded bowing segments and mesovortices that maintain a substantial risk for straight-line winds and brief tornadoes as it progresses eastward. A significant cooling trend is forecast to begin by Saturday as the cold front moves through and displaces the warm, moist air mass from the previous week. Temperatures are expected to exhibit a non-diurnal trend, with highs likely occurring earlier in the day. The latest NBM guidance raises concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures anticipated to fall into the 30s Saturday and Sunday nights. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Area of rain will exit the eastern terminals over the next hour or so. There is a low (20-40% chance) that MVFR stratocu will develop near/after daybreak, otherwise conditions will be VFR through the forecast. Southwest winds will remain gusty near 25 kt until late afternoon, then go light as surface ridging builds in. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...25  646 FXUS64 KJAN 160859 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible this morning, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor today. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Through This Morning: Perhaps a bit disrupted by high clouds overhead, fog is a little slower to develop to our south this morning. Still expecting patchy to areas of fog by around sunrise especially in southeastern parts of the forecast area. Showers associated with a shortwave passing to our north today area already impacting far northern parts of the area and will be possible through the morning. Today through Wednesday: A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US are keeping the approaching system's cold front to the northwest of our area today. Best rain chances today will be closer to the front, but do still have those slight chances for showers and storms continuing around the US Highway 82 corridor into today. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures tomorrow will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by tomorrow night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chances (80%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. AS the high translates farther eastward by midweek, some moisture return will allow for POPs to return to portions of the area. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions to start the TAF period, with increasing chances for FG and low stratus around the KHBG and KPIB areas by around 10-12Z. Fog and stratus should lift and thin by 15Z, with prevailing VFR conditions after that time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 64 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 85 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 87 64 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 87 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 85 63 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 86 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 0 Greenwood 86 66 89 66 / 20 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ056>058- 063>066-072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF