051 FXUS66 KSGX 160902 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 202 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Mid and high clouds will increase today with slightly cooler high temperatures and southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph during the afternoon and evening. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the deserts. There will be north winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains, peaking Friday morning with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. For the weekend, weaker winds and warmer inland with Sunday high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Some time during the early to middle part of next week, a low pressure system will move into California bringing cooler and breezy weather with a less than 20 percent chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... A low pressure system moving inland to the north will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California today into this evening while a low pressure system passing by to the south brings an increase in mid and high clouds today into this evening. High temperatures for today will be a few degrees cooler. Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will strengthen today with gusts to 35 to 45 mph during the afternoon and evening. For late tonight and Friday, the lower-level flow across southern California will turn offshore. Gusty north winds will strengthen for late tonight into Friday morning with gusts to 35 to 45 mph near and below the Cajon Pass, along and below the coastal slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains, and in northern and eastern portions of the Coachella Valley. High temperatures on Friday will warm around 5 degrees for the coast and valleys and cool around 5 degrees for the deserts. High temperatures on Friday will be mostly in the 70s for the coast and valleys to around 80 for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with high temperatures for the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s. Winds will weaken on Saturday and high temperatures for inland areas will warm 5 to locally 10 degrees with high temperatures ranging for the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 90. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... The warming will continue for inland areas on Sunday with high temperatures on Sunday 5 to 10 degrees above average for most areas. Sunday high temperatures will range from the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower to mid 90s for the lower deserts. For Monday through Wednesday, a low pressure system will move toward the California coast and inland into California with continued model differences with the timing as well as with the weakening that may occur as it moves inland. For southwestern California, it will be cooler and breezier. NBM chances for measurable precipitation remain less than 20 percent and are greatest for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... 160930Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds will gradually increase through 16Z with bases around 1000-1600 feet MSL, but cigs still random and intermittent. Any cigs will scatter out 16-17Z. Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Strong southwest to west winds are expected 18-06Z with gusts up to 30 to 40 knots. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains, along with local BLDU in deserts. Winds to shift to offshore (northeast) after 06Z tonight in the coastal foothills and into the northern Inland Empire, increasing Friday morning. Otherwise...BKN high clouds AOA 20000 feet MSL decreasing after 00Z. VFR conditions expected today through tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM  224 FXUS63 KEAX 160904 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong to severe storms anticipated Friday, including greater confidence in the severe threat compared to recent days/events. - All hazards possible, including tornadoes but especially large hail and damaging winds - Current timing looks to be from early/mid afternoon into evening, similar to timing to what transpired yesterday/Wednesday * Temperatures remain seasonally warm (mainly 80s) through Friday, then much cooler Saturday. Gradual warming after Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 After the widespread strong to severe storm event yesterday/Wednesday afternoon and evening, quieter conditions have settled into the area. The parent upper level shortwave trough and attendant surface low have shifted east of the area, continuing to fire off non-severe convection toward the Mid-Mississippi and western Ohio River Valley areas. Locally, easing of surface pressure gradient and deep layer subsidence have resulted in much lighter winds (near calm in some cases) and clearing skies. For today, conditions remain quiet with mostly sunny skies and notably lighter southerly winds continuing. Unfortunately, the quiet and calm will be short lived... The next weather maker/upper trough has moved into the PNW and will continue to dig down into the mid-Mountainous West through the day today. As it does so, rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis will be seen over the northern High Plains. Coupled with broad surface high over the SE US and increasingly SW mid-upper level flow, much of the central CONUS will see increasing deep moisture return by late Thursday/overnight and especially into early Friday. By Friday morning, deep upper trough begins to kick out/pivot into the Plains and take on a more neutral to slightly negative/mature tilt, which very typically favorable for severe weather scenarios, and a jet rounding its base and nosing into the forecast area. Broad set of synoptic guidance (deterministic and ensemble) have depicted this setup for days now, including various AI/ML/NN aided guidance further ringing the bell. As we too have begun to enter hi-res windows, guidance remains pretty well locked in with the severe threat, seen in HREF and HRRR NN among others. Okay... so about what about the details, primary threats, timing, etc? Aforementioned general synoptic setup is yielding at least moderate, if not high, confidence in the following: substantial SB/MUCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/kg, weak or no cap by the afternoon, increasing deep layer shear >50 kts 0-6km, notable increasing low level shear of >35-40 kts 0-3km, and elongating hodographs among other things. Of note, and something that does introduce some uncertainty is frontal position and timing. This will not only be important for general threat area, but also initial storm modes and just how supportive the environment will be for higher storm potential. Effectively, it may be a bit of a race for the low-mid level flow increase ahead of the frontal passage. Currently, forecast suggests a "a just right" sort of timing with front entering NW forecast area mid-late afternoon Friday and that increased low level flow overspreading the area at that time. As a result, we may have both discrete supercells in the open warm sector (depicted very weak or nil cap) concurrent with increasing activity/initiation along the cold front. Should this prevail, all modes of severe weather are absolutely in play. Tornadic activity most likely discrete cells, but increasing 0-3km shear semi- orthogonal to the front too would keep QLCS tornadic activity in place. Damaging winds and hail would be expected to be prevalent given the CAPE-shear parameter space. Largest hail with discrete activity, but severe hail also in play within more plusey multi- cell/clusters or linear storm modes. Damaging winds may be the highest end and most prevalent threat given the expectation for a rapid uptick convection coverage. Whether discrete, multi-cell, or linear. Mean-winds and right movers will yield storm motions >45 mph, so it would not take much more to get base severe winds. Given the large CAPE/steep lapse rates and favorable shear/wind profile orientations, organized cold pools (discrete or linear) could certainly produce swaths of 70-80+ mph winds. All of this looks to transpire from early afternoon to evening, not unlike the timing seen yesterday/Wednesday. To no surprise, SPC Day 2 Outlook reflects a lot of this thinking with Sig 1 Hatching and quite elevated probabilities for Hail/Wind, at minimum the highest of our recent events. Suffice it to say, pay attention to remaining evolution of details for Friday. As this sizable trough sweeps through the central CONUS, much quieter and cooler conditions prevail through the weekend as NW flow at the surface and aloft prevail. Highs fall back into the 50s for most Saturday, then gradually warming thereafter as mid-upper level ridging begins to work through the west and eventually central CONUS. Any notable precipitation chances then look to hold off until at least mid-week if not end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 VFR conditions are likely (>80%) through the forecast. There is a low chance (<20%) for some lower clouds and/or minor fog to develop generally south of the Missouri River early tomorrow morning, before dissipating with daytime heating/ mixing. Otherwise, winds will be light/ variable overnight and then increase late tomorrow morning out of the south. Sustained winds around 10kts are expected with some occasional stronger gusts to 20kts likely. Winds then diminish and back to the southeast after sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...CDB  796 FXUS64 KMOB 160905 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity. - Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires. - A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper ridge over the extreme southeastern states retreats to over the Gulf through Thursday night as an upper trof progresses across much of the eastern states. The upper ridge begins to build back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western half of the CONUS. The large upper trof continues off across the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the frontal passage, light nocturnal winds and clear to mostly clear skies look to favor fog development each night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight until 14Z Thursday. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge look to inhibit the potential for convective development through Saturday afternoon. Deep layer moisture will meanwhile begin to improve on Saturday, and looks sufficient to support mostly slight chance to chance pops for Saturday night as the front moves through, with slight chance pops lingering into Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail through Tuesday with a slight chance for rain returning to much of the area by Wednesday. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s with highs in the mid to upper 80s following for Friday. Saturday will have highs in the lower to mid 80s, then highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the lower to mid 70s. Daytime highs gradually trend warmer through Wednesday to mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows through Friday night tend to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, then trend cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows then moderate by Wednesday night to range from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, then a low risk follows for Friday through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR flight category currently will degrade overnight to MVFR and IFR flight category as fog begins to develop. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Small Craft Advisory will likely be required Sunday into Monday in the wake of a strong cold front. Until then, a light onshore continues through Saturday evening then shifts westerly by late Saturday night ahead of the front. /22 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 While afternoon humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels through the weekend, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area due to ongoing drought conditions. For Monday of next week, afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25%, and conditions will be closely monitored for possibly reaching Red Flag criteria. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 80 65 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  369 FXUS65 KTWC 160906 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 206 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Saturday, with highs warming to 4 to 7 degrees above normal Sunday through early next week. Gusty southwest winds are expected across all of southeast Arizona today, with breezy southwest to west winds persisting to the east of Tucson on Friday. Gusty east to southeast winds will occur Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions will continue through at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a closed low over the Pacific Northwest and a weak shortwave off the west coast of Baja. The low over the Pacific Northwest will dig south today and Friday moving through the Great Basin, while the shortwave moves through northern Mexico. The core of the trough is expected to stay to the north in Utah. This system will be dry with the main impact to sensible weather being another round of gusty west/southwest winds this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Expect speeds 12-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Winds will be most widespread Thursday and east of Tucson on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected east of Tucson today and Friday afternoon, mainly in Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above normal today, then around normal Friday. This weekend into early next week ridging will be in place over the Intermountain West with a strong closed Pacific low sitting off the West Coast. At the surface high pressure sets up over the southern Plains, leading to a strong easterly pressure gradient over southeast Arizona. This will translate into gusty southeast winds for most of southeast Arizona Sunday into Monday morning, especially in the Gila River Valley. This could lead to critical fire weather conditions for portions of Graham County Sunday. Thanks to the ridge temperatures will see a warming trend becoming 4-7 degrees above normal Saturday into early next week. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with Tucson seeing around a 50 percent chance to hit 90 degrees. Models bring the closed Pacific low onshore by mid to late next week with the Euro faster and further north than the GEFS. Depending on the evolution of this low southeast Arizona could see another round of gusty southwest winds. & .AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z. High clouds will move in from the west this morning with skies expected to be SCT-BKN AOA 20k ft AGL through most of the valid period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction early this morning. Aft 16/17Z, increasing SFC winds with SLY/SWLY winds at 12-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts by 16/19Z and continuing thru 17/02. Thereafter winds less than 10 kts again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will move to our north today and Friday, resulting in strong and gusty winds. RH values will meet critical fire weather thresholds. However, wind speeds are expected to remain below critical criteria, with near critical fire weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast Arizona (Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties) today and Friday. There may be an isolated location or two in these eastern areas that meet Red Flag criteria for an hour or so mid to late afternoon. Light winds then return on Saturday along with single digit RH values. Gusty east-southeast winds (15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph) are forecast Sunday into Monday morning. Wind speeds may be strong enough in the Gila River Valley on Sunday to exceed critical fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values Sunday and Monday will be in the 8-18 percent range. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  575 FXUS63 KLSX 160908 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 408 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, mainly along and south of I-44 across the Eastern Ozarks. - Thunderstorms are expected to move into northeast and central Missouri late Friday afternoon or early evening and continue through the area Friday night. Some of the storms could be severe Friday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The cold front which triggered last night's storms is washing out over Missouri and west central Illinois, and is now difficult to discern in surface observations. Low level southerly flow will be reestablished across the area today ahead of the tail end of the mid- upper level trough which was pushing the front southeast. The trough is attenuating quickly, and 500mb heights are forecast to either be steady or even rise slightly just ahead of it. However, most short-range guidance is showing low level moisture convergence on the southerly flow, and they produce a few hundredths of an inch of QPF. Several CAMs (including the latest HRRR) pop up scattered convection over the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon as well. GFS and RAP show a solid 1500-2500 J/Kg SBCAPE south of I-70 in Missouri into far southeast Illinois, along with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear. Forecast soundings look nearly uncapped with perhaps just the slightest amount of CINH. However, the only obvious trigger for afternoon thunderstorms is the aforementioned weak low level moisture convergence, which may not be enough to force convective initiation. With all that in mind, I do think 30-40 PoPs are warranted across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon into early evening, and I would not be surprised if a few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued. The mid-upper level trough will be moving east of the area and short wave ridging will build across the Mid- Mississippi Valley this evening, so any storms that do develop during the afternoon should either move out of our forecast area or dissipate between 00-03Z this evening. Remaining cloud cover left over from overnight convection should clear the Mississippi River by 15-16Z and then be out of south central Illinois by 17- 18Z. Lack of a decent FROPA, persistent southerly flow, and strong April sunshine after clouds clear this morning should push temperatures back into the low to mid 80s today, and light southerly flow tonight will promote mild lows in the low to mid 60s in most locations. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Attention turns to ever weather potential Friday. A strong mid- upper level trough will move across the Plains into the Midwest Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front will develop over the eastern Plains Friday morning and move into northwest Missouri by mid-late Friday afternoon. Mid levels will cool ahead of the front as the trough moves east which will steepen lapse rates and increase instability. GFS and RAP show 3500+ J/Kg CAPE ahead of the front in northwest Missouri with deep layer shear increasing to 50kts. Convection is expected to be triggered by the front as it moves southeast during the afternoon. Supercells should be the predominant convective mode in this environment, at least initially. However, shear vectors are nearly parallel to the low level boundary which should promote upscale growth into a QLCS with LEWPs and bowing segments as it moves into northeast and central Missouri. Damaging winds will be the primary threat as the line moves into our area, and strong 0-1km shear will also produce a tornado threat. Large hail will also be a threat early on, particularly where supercells may be embedded in the line, but the hail threat should diminish as the line continues east into east central Missouri and southwest Illinois. I am still uncertain as to how far east the severe threat extends. GFS and RAP show instability falling quickly after sunset ahead of the line across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois. CAMs also indicate the line will weaken quickly during the evening. The 4km NAM looks like the most dramatic example of this weakening as the line falls apart between 03-04Z before it reaches east central Missouri. The HRRR also weakens the line, although it's after 04Z after the line has moved nearly all the way through the CWFA. This variability does not instill a great deal of confidence in the eastward extent of the severe threat. However the solutions which hang onto evening instability and the favorable 0-1km kinematics continue to warrant the severe messaging. Briefly, beyond Friday night... Cooler and quieter weather settles into the Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday behind the front. Cool high pressure spends the weekend moving from the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s are expected Saturday and Sunday with lows Sunday morning dropping into the mid 30s to around 40. Low level flow returns turns back to the south early next week which will push temperatures back into the 70s to near 80. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Light rain will continue to impact the metro terminals over the next few hours, though visibilities should stay VFR. Cannot rule out a stroke of lightning or two in the area, but probability looks too low to mention in the TAFs. Dry/VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period with mostly light south/southwesterly winds. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  305 FXUS63 KLSX 160911 CCA AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, mainly along and south of I-44 across the Eastern Ozarks. - Thunderstorms are expected to move into northeast and central Missouri late Friday afternoon or early evening and continue through the area Friday night. Some of the storms could be severe Friday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The cold front which triggered last night's storms is washing out over Missouri and west central Illinois, and is now difficult to discern in surface observations. Low level southerly flow will be reestablished across the area today ahead of the tail end of the mid- upper level trough which was pushing the front southeast. The trough is attenuating quickly, and 500mb heights are forecast to either be steady or even rise slightly just ahead of it. However, most short-range guidance is showing low level moisture convergence on the southerly flow, and they produce a few hundredths of an inch of QPF. Several CAMs (including the latest HRRR) pop up scattered convection over the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon as well. GFS and RAP show a solid 1500-2500 J/Kg SBCAPE south of I-70 in Missouri into far southeast Illinois, along with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear. Forecast soundings look nearly uncapped with perhaps just the slightest amount of CINH. However, the only obvious trigger for afternoon thunderstorms is the aforementioned weak low level moisture convergence, which may not be enough to force convective initiation. With all that in mind, I do think 30-40 PoPs are warranted across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon into early evening, and I would not be surprised if a few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued. The mid-upper level trough will be moving east of the area and short wave ridging will build across the Mid- Mississippi Valley this evening, so any storms that do develop during the afternoon should either move out of our forecast area or dissipate between 00-03Z this evening. Remaining cloud cover left over from overnight convection should clear the Mississippi River by 15-16Z and then be out of south central Illinois by 17- 18Z. Lack of a decent FROPA, persistent southerly flow, and strong April sunshine after clouds clear this morning should push temperatures back into the low to mid 80s today, and light southerly flow tonight will promote mild lows in the low to mid 60s in most locations. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Attention turns to severe weather potential Friday. A strong mid- upper level trough will move across the Plains into the Midwest Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front will develop over the eastern Plains Friday morning and move into northwest Missouri by mid-late Friday afternoon. Mid levels will cool ahead of the front as the trough moves east which will steepen lapse rates and increase instability. GFS and RAP show 3500+ J/Kg CAPE ahead of the front in northwest Missouri with deep layer shear increasing to 50kts. Convection is expected to be triggered by the front as it moves southeast during the afternoon. Supercells should be the predominant convective mode in this environment, at least initially. However, shear vectors are nearly parallel to the low level boundary which should promote upscale growth into a QLCS with LEWPs and bowing segments as it moves into northeast and central Missouri. Damaging winds will be the primary threat as the line moves into our area, and strong 0-1km shear will also produce a tornado threat. Large hail will also be a threat early on, particularly where supercells may be embedded in the line, but the hail threat should diminish as the line continues east into east central Missouri and southwest Illinois. I am still uncertain as to how far east the severe threat extends. GFS and RAP show instability falling quickly after sunset ahead of the line across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois. CAMs also indicate the line will weaken quickly during the evening. The 4km NAM looks like the most dramatic example of this weakening as the line falls apart between 03-04Z before it reaches east central Missouri. The HRRR also weakens the line, although it's after 04Z after the line has moved nearly all the way through the CWFA. This variability does not instill a great deal of confidence in the eastward extent of the severe threat. However the solutions which hang onto evening instability and the favorable 0-1km kinematics continue to warrant the severe messaging. Briefly, beyond Friday night... Cooler and quieter weather settles into the Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday behind the front. Cool high pressure spends the weekend moving from the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s are expected Saturday and Sunday with lows Sunday morning dropping into the mid 30s to around 40. Low level flow returns turns back to the south early next week which will push temperatures back into the 70s to near 80. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Light rain will continue to impact the metro terminals over the next few hours, though visibilities should stay VFR. Cannot rule out a stroke of lightning or two in the area, but probability looks too low to mention in the TAFs. Dry/VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period with mostly light south/southwesterly winds. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  267 FXUS65 KMSO 160911 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 311 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain and snow showers continue today and early Friday. - A ridge building over the region this weekend will set up warm temperatures to start next week. - The next system with precipitation is expected around mid-next week. A closed low over the region today will migrate across the region today causing instability and showers. Snow showers will reach the valley floors in many places in western Montana, but due to the recent warmth and solar heating the ground temperatures will be warm enough to melt it before it can accumulate on the ground. However, some elevated surfaces like picnic tables, grass, or fences may accumulate some snow. Late Friday a ridge starts to build over the region, setting up for warmer temperatures over the weekend and early next week. By Sunday afternoon the lower elevations of central Idaho will be up into the mid and upper 70s with western Montana valleys into the mid 70s by Monday. Ensembles generally agree on an active pattern returning Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Again, this will be a showery pattern due to a trough or a low moving through with the potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...A closed low migrating over the region today will cause some convection. The main driver of the convection will be steep lapse rates and good solar heating. But limited precipitable water and an overall cold atmosphere will limit the strength and coverage of the showers. Due to the cold air mass, showers are expected to be snow showers even in the valleys. However, due to the solar radiation and recent warmth, warm ground temperatures will prevent accumulation at area terminals. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ this morning for Eastern Lemhi County...Northern Clearwater Mountains... Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$  235 FXUS65 KBOI 160914 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 314 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and cold today, with scattered snow showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Snow level on valley floors. - Areas of subfreezing temperatures in the agricultural valleys this morning, but widespread subfreezing temperatures late tonight and Friday morning. - Steadily warming days but only gradually warming nights Friday through Monday. - Next precipitation Monday through Wednesday.. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... At 2 AM MDT the cold front and nearly all the rain and snow extended from near Twin Falls through Owyhee County into northwestern Nevada, moving slowly southeastward. Snow levels have lowered to the valley floors and any showers that form in our CWA later today will be snow or graupel, although little accumulation is expected. Post-frontal west/northwest winds will blow 20 to 30 mph, with afternoon gusts to 40 mph in the western Magic Valley and south to the Nevada border. Temperatures at 2 AM MDT were still above freezing in the agricultural valleys of southern Idaho, and should stay above freezing in the Treasure Valley, but dip slightly below freezing in the Magic Valley between 6 AM and 10 AM MDT. The Freeze Warning for today has been adjusted accordingly. The Freeze Warning for late tonight and Friday morning will be more impactful, with low temps Friday morning between 23 to 28 degrees everywhere, i.e., a hard freeze. Even Saturday morning will be below freezing, but not as cold as Friday morning. Low temps will moderate only gradually through Sunday, but high temps, only in the 30s and 40s today, will warm about 10 degrees per day Friday through Sunday, getting back to the 60s and 70s Sunday, along with mostly clear skies and only light winds, as high pressure aloft replaces today's cold upper level trough. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Cluster analysis continues to show some form of a closed-off low in the 500mb pattern come Monday. The ensemble consensus continues to lean toward a mid-week arrival (Tuesday/Wednesday); however, it could arrive in eastern Oregon as early as Monday. This is leading to a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation in E-Oregon Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase to 30-60% area-wide come Tuesday and Wednesday, which is the time frame the majority of ensemble guidance favors. The convective threat will increase mid-week next week as the low moves inland, with ensembles hinting at building instability Tuesday/Wednesday. Right now it appears that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will have the best chance for thunderstorms in the forecast area. However, the day of greatest likelihood will depend on how soon the system impacts our area. Confidence is low on the pattern progression beyond Wednesday, but unsettled conditions will likely continue. A 20 to 40 percent chance of precipitation will continue area-wide come Thursday. Temperatures Monday will continue to be around 10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal following the low. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1207 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Cold front exiting the area east, with scattered showers continuing through Thu/PM. Isolated lightning Thu/PM. Snow levels lowering to valley floors overnight. Low VFR/MVFR in heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR in heavier snow showers. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-40 kt. KBOI...Precipitation tapering off behind the front with VFR conditions under low-mid clouds. A 30% chance of showers at terminal with a 10% chance of lightning after Thu/18z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu/PM. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 6 AM to 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ014-016. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. OR...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  048 FXUS65 KBOI 160920 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 314 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and cold today, with scattered snow showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Snow level on valley floors. - Areas of subfreezing temperatures in the agricultural valleys this morning, but widespread subfreezing temperatures late tonight and Friday morning. - Steadily warming days but only gradually warming nights Friday through Monday. - Next precipitation Monday through Wednesday.. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... At 2 AM MDT the cold front and nearly all the rain and snow extended from near Twin Falls through Owyhee County into northwestern Nevada, moving slowly southeastward. Snow levels have lowered to the valley floors and any showers that form in our CWA later today will be snow or graupel, although little accumulation is expected. Post-frontal west/northwest winds will blow 20 to 30 mph, with afternoon gusts to 40 mph in the western Magic Valley and south to the Nevada border. Temperatures at 2 AM MDT were still above freezing in the agricultural valleys of southern Idaho, and should stay above freezing in the Treasure Valley, but dip slightly below freezing in the Magic Valley between 6 AM and 10 AM MDT. The Freeze Warning for today has been adjusted accordingly. The Freeze Warning for late tonight and Friday morning will be more impactful, with low temps Friday morning between 23 to 28 degrees everywhere, i.e., a hard freeze. Even Saturday morning will be below freezing, but not as cold as Friday morning. Low temps will moderate only gradually through Sunday, but high temps, only in the 30s and 40s today, will warm about 10 degrees per day Friday through Sunday, getting back to the 60s and 70s Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear skies and winds will be light, as high pressure aloft replaces today's cold upper level trough. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Cluster analysis continues to show some form of a closed-off low in the 500mb pattern come Monday. The ensemble consensus continues to lean toward a mid-week arrival (Tuesday/Wednesday); however, it could arrive in eastern Oregon as early as Monday. This is leading to a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation in E-Oregon Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase to 30-60% area-wide come Tuesday and Wednesday, which is the time frame the majority of ensemble guidance favors. The convective threat will increase mid-week next week as the low moves inland, with ensembles hinting at building instability Tuesday/Wednesday. Right now it appears that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will have the best chance for thunderstorms in the forecast area. However, the day of greatest likelihood will depend on how soon the system impacts our area. Confidence is low on the pattern progression beyond Wednesday, but unsettled conditions will likely continue. A 20 to 40 percent chance of precipitation will continue area-wide come Thursday. Temperatures Monday will continue to be around 10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal following the low. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1207 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Cold front exiting the area east, with scattered showers continuing through Thu/PM. Isolated lightning Thu/PM. Snow levels lowering to valley floors overnight. Low VFR/MVFR in heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR in heavier snow showers. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-40 kt. KBOI...Precipitation tapering off behind the front with VFR conditions under low-mid clouds. A 30% chance of showers at terminal with a 10% chance of lightning after Thu/18z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu/PM. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 6 AM to 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ014-016. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. OR...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  001 FXUS65 KBOI 160921 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 314 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and cold today, with scattered snow showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Snow level on valley floors. - Areas of subfreezing temperatures in the agricultural valleys this morning, but widespread subfreezing temperatures late tonight and Friday morning. - Steadily warming days but only gradually warming nights Friday through Monday. - Next precipitation Monday through Wednesday.. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... At 2 AM MDT the cold front and nearly all the rain and snow extended from near Twin Falls through Owyhee County into northwestern Nevada, moving slowly southeastward. Snow levels have lowered to the valley floors and any showers that form in our CWA later today will be snow or graupel, although little accumulation is expected. Post-frontal west/northwest winds will blow 20 to 30 mph, with afternoon gusts to 40 mph in the western Magic Valley and south to the Nevada border. Temperatures at 2 AM MDT were still above freezing in the agricultural valleys of southern Idaho, and should stay above freezing in the Treasure Valley, but dip slightly below freezing in the Magic Valley between 6 AM and 10 AM MDT. The Freeze Warning for today has been adjusted accordingly. The Freeze Warning for late tonight and Friday morning will be more impactful, with low temps Friday morning between 23 to 28 degrees everywhere, i.e., a hard freeze. Even Saturday morning will be below freezing, but not as cold as Friday morning. Low temps will moderate only gradually through Sunday, but high temps, only in the 30s and 40s today, will warm about 10 degrees per day Friday through Sunday, getting back to the 60s and 70s Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light, as high pressure aloft replaces today's cold upper level trough. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Cluster analysis continues to show some form of a closed-off low in the 500mb pattern come Monday. The ensemble consensus continues to lean toward a mid-week arrival (Tuesday/Wednesday); however, it could arrive in eastern Oregon as early as Monday. This is leading to a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation in E-Oregon Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase to 30-60% area-wide come Tuesday and Wednesday, which is the time frame the majority of ensemble guidance favors. The convective threat will increase mid-week next week as the low moves inland, with ensembles hinting at building instability Tuesday/Wednesday. Right now it appears that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will have the best chance for thunderstorms in the forecast area. However, the day of greatest likelihood will depend on how soon the system impacts our area. Confidence is low on the pattern progression beyond Wednesday, but unsettled conditions will likely continue. A 20 to 40 percent chance of precipitation will continue area-wide come Thursday. Temperatures Monday will continue to be around 10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal following the low. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1207 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Cold front exiting the area east, with scattered showers continuing through Thu/PM. Isolated lightning Thu/PM. Snow levels lowering to valley floors overnight. Low VFR/MVFR in heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR in heavier snow showers. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-40 kt. KBOI...Precipitation tapering off behind the front with VFR conditions under low-mid clouds. A 30% chance of showers at terminal with a 10% chance of lightning after Thu/18z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu/PM. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 6 AM to 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ014-016. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. OR...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  992 FXUS65 KTFX 160924 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 324 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of snow will be most impactful over and near the higher terrain of central and southwest this morning. - Temperatures remain below the seasonal average through Friday, with additional periods of scattered to numerous snow shower activity over much of the forecast area. - A building ridge of high pressure will bring warming and drying conditions this weekend into early next week, with another spring Pacific system moving for the second half of next week. && .UPDATE... Early morning update has been published, mainly to incorporate latest Hi-Res guidance to best capture snow that is developing along the cold front diving southeast across North Central and Central Montana. Additionally, low temperatures were lowered across portions of the Hi-Line where temperatures were already approaching forecasted lows, with colder air just upstream over Southern Alberta. As of right now high temperatures were left as is (not lowered) given uncertainty of how impactful the mid- April sun angle will be, considering the lack of snowfall across most areas, with diurnal heating. With that being said it is possible that forecasted temperatures could be 5 to 10 degrees too warm throughout the day. - Moldan && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1221 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper level trough continues to deepen over the Great Basin, bringing widespread snow showers across North-central, Central and Southwestern Montana today. Snow showers will be particularly prevalent in Southwest Montana, with isolated snow showers across North-Central Montana. The earlier passage of a cold front and northerly flow aloft will keep temperatures well below seasonal average, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. A cold upper level low will move across the Hi-Line today, with high winds aloft wrapping around it. This will bring breezy to gusty northwesterly winds to North-Central Montana this morning through the afternoon, before they dissipate in the evening. On Friday, North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana remain under the influence of the upper level trough. This will cause temperatures to remain on the chillier side with lows in the teens and another round of snow showers Friday morning. As the trough moves to the east, an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west begins to build, allowing temperatures to warm in the afternoon and precipitation chances to decrease. The upper level ridge will move east over Montana on Saturday and Sunday, bringing milder and drier weather across the region. Early next week the mild conditions continue until troughing brings increased shower activity by the middle of next week. - Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Periods of snow and snow showers through Friday... Precipitation associated with the frontal boundary over the plains will move eastward with only scattered rain/snow showers lingering for the remainder of the morning. The colder air aloft near the trough axis is slightly disjointed from the peak stratiform snow, but it should arrive just in time to produce impactful snow to areas over and near the central and southwest mountain ranges through around mid- to late morning, especially for the Madison/Gallatin ranges and their north/northwesterly facing foothills. Slushy/snowy travel conditions look to impact the Bozeman and Ennis morning commutes, at least briefly due to this general 2 to 6 inch snowfall. Localized areas that receive the heaviest snowfall may even observe some isolated instances of power outages and or tree damage. Snow becomes more showery in nature heading into the afternoon hours, though the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties look to see lingering impacts through this evening. Despite the let up in accumulating snow impacts, a cold north to northwesterly flow will persist through Friday afternoon. The combination of the higher April sun angle quickly heating surfaces to the mid to upper 30s under the mid-level cold core around 2 standard deviations below climatology will encourage the development of locally heavy scattered to numerous snow showers. The latest hires guidance shows the plains getting the brunt of this activity, but all areas will see at least scattered snow showers. Impacts will be highly localized and brief, but will include sharp visibility reductions, gusty winds, and minor localized slushy roadway accumulations. After a cold night tonight with lows mostly in the teens and even single digits over areas of snow cover, another shortwave will bring more scattered to numerous snow showers and even general areas of light snow. There is currently around a 50 to 70% chance for an inch snowfall or more for areas near and over the central and southwest mountain ranges. The timing looks to be in the late morning and afternoon hours, but winter weather products may be needed should this shift earlier during the colder portion of the morning. - RCG && .AVIATION... 16/12Z TAF Period A spring storm will bring low CIGS and reduced VIS to terminals across Southwest Montana for much of the next 24 hours, with terminals across Central and North Central Montana seeing fluctuations in CIGS/VIS over this same timeframe. With respect to Southwest Montana persistent snow or a rain/snow mix across the KWYS, KEKS, and KBZN terminals will bring LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions through 15-18z Thursday, with conditions only improving to MVFR/low-VFR thereafter. Further north an area of precipitation will gradually exit through the KGTF, KLWT, and KHVR terminals through 09-12z Thursday; however, snow showers will re-develop during the late morning/afternoon hours on Thursday and persist through the evening hours here and at the KCTB and KHLN terminals. Widespread mountain obscuration will continue through the day on Thursday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 22 45 25 / 40 40 50 10 CTB 30 14 44 21 / 40 30 20 0 HLN 43 25 46 25 / 60 40 70 10 BZN 39 19 43 19 / 90 50 70 20 WYS 34 12 36 11 / 100 60 70 20 DLN 38 19 43 20 / 70 30 30 0 HVR 37 17 46 25 / 40 30 0 0 LWT 38 17 42 22 / 50 30 40 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin Valley-Madison River Valley. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  308 FXUS61 KILN 160928 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 528 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered precipitation chances for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms today. Well above normal will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level trough axis will progress east across the Ohio Valley through tonight. An axis of widespread showers and thunderstorms in association with this currently across Illinois and western Indiana will push slowly east through the morning hours. However, with a less unstable airmass across our area, expect these to weaken and begin to dissipate as they move east into our area later this morning. As a result, will just allow for some lower end chance pops across mainly our west later this morning. We will begin to destabilize again through the afternoon hours and this will allow for some scattered redevelopment along and ahead of the trough axis. The best chance for this appears to be across our eastern areas during the mid to late afternoon hours. Will go ahead and range pops this afternoon from 40-50 percent in the east to 20 percent across the west. With the better instability and forcing shifting off to our east through the afternoon, expect any severe threat across our east to be limited. Mid level ridging will move east across the region on Friday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a continuation of well above normal temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid and upper level troughing over the central CONUS will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the weekend. This will help push a strong cold front east across our area on Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. There are some timing differences between the models with the front on Saturday and this will help determine how much we are able to destabilize through the day. Given the strong forcing, there will at least be a low end threat for severe weather on Saturday but the overall threat will be dependent on the timing of the front and how well we are able to destabilize. As of now, it would seem the best severe threat would be across our eastern areas. Strong CAA behind the front will usher in a much cooler airmass to start next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley today. This will lead to a chance for showers late this morning and then scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  988 FXUS66 KLOX 160929 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 229 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...16/120 AM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/148 AM. Expect to see patchy fog in the Salinas River Valley and possibly the LA Basin early this morning, along with some mid to high level clouds passing over the area throughout the day. A cold inside slider continues to track through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California over the next few days. Winds today will increase and turn offshore over the interior, with the strongest gusts near the I-5 corridor and Antelope Valley. Current wind advisories for this area look on track. These offshore winds will likely lead to warming near the coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County. As winds shift to the northeast this evening, they strengthen further, reaching wind advisory levels for the Santa Lucia Mountains, Santa Ynez Range, possibly the interior Santa Barbara County mountains. Will also likely need wind advisories Thursday night for the Antelope Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana prone areas by Friday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys today leading to 2-4 degrees of warming today. However, thick high clouds could limit warming at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more east into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning levels in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt, so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coasts and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/228 AM. Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north of Point Conception. && .AVIATION...16/0640Z. At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 18 C. Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through 17Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high confidence in TAFs. There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions develop between 07Z-16Z Thursday at KSMX (30%) and KPRB (20%), and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%). KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, and again after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-015 conds between 07Z-16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 5 kt 10-15Z each morning. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...16/200 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones. However, localized gale force gusts are possible early this morning. Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning and then diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts this evening. Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight. On Friday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to Malibu on Friday morning, there is a 30% chance for Gale Force winds near the coast, and especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Lund MARINE...DB/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  890 FXUS63 KBIS 160934 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 434 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wide range of high temperatures from north to south today as a cold front moves southward across the state. - Periods of rain and snow later today through Friday morning, with medium to high chances for light accumulations of snow south central and east. - Breezy today and tonight, then windy on Friday. - Well below average temperatures Friday and Saturday, followed by a temperatures trending warmer Sunday through the middle portions of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Currently, west-southwest flow aloft with weak ridging across the Central Plains into far south central Canada, and a large/deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwest/northern Intermountain West. Lead embedded impulses ejecting out of the upper low and low level forcing north of surface low pressure centered over southeast Montana continue to trigger shower activity from northeast Montana to across northwest North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan early this morning. While most of the precipitation is falling as rain in ND, snow is being observed at times far north and there remains a chance as well for some light freezing rain this morning given warm/above freezing temperatures aloft and below freezing surface air temperatures in the upper 20s. This morning's showers across the north will lift into Canada by 15Z or so with the mid level forcing. Afterwards, the upper low to our west will continue east today, with the base digging into the Desert Southwest, morphing into a split flow pattern by this evening. Associated sfc low now over southeast MT, scoots east along the ND/SD border area today, while the aforementioned surface cold front slowly pushes southward. Temperatures behind the front colder in the 30s and 40s north, and much warmer ahead of the FROPA in the 70s far south central and across the southern half of the James River valley. Will maintain near critical fire weather wording in the HWO across the southern James Valley of ND where Min RH drops to ~25%, temperatures approach 80F, and will see a wind shift from south to north- northwest in the afternoon. Northern stream mid level low moves into southern Saskatchewan this evening, while a 700mb trough moves east into southwest and central ND. Strong frontogenesis is depicting by all guidance developing across southwest/central ND later today into tonight, though DivQ forcing is lacking. However, a strong upper level jet streak will also be lifting northeast, with the right entrance region riding over the 700mb trough after 00Z. This combination will bring additional precipitation chances, initially starting in the west later this afternoon, then rapidly increasing in coverage and passing from west to east across the state this evening through Friday morning. Initially expect mainly rain, then transitioning to mainly snow in the evening and overnight hours as colder air is pulled south- southeast. We are still forecasting overall light snow accumulations, though the strong frontogenesis and mid/upper level jet forcing, despite lacking a decent DivQ signal, may be enough to generate some heavier precip bands. NBM probs of at least an inch of snow range 40 to 60 percent from south central into the northern James River Valley, with 10 percent or less chances for 4 inches. Still can't entirely discount a band of heavier snow setting up. With the strong forcing, SPC also expanded the general t-storm area into parts of the state for later today/evening. Makes sense given lightning activity now over northeast MT. Upper trough/split flow pattern migrates east Friday into Saturday, with mainly dry weather expected but temperatures averaging well below normal (Highs Friday in the 30s and highs Sat in the 30s and 40s). West-northwest flow aloft develops later this weekend into next week, with this flow pattern bringing mild Pacific air into the Northern Plains and resulting in temperatures quickly moderating back into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday, and likely into Wednesday. While mainly dry weather forecast, can't rule out any diurnally driven showers with any wave that may move through. An active weather pattern is then favored to end the week next week, along with temperatures trending cooler, with ensembles showing a closed low or upper trough approaching from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon across western and central North Dakota. The exception may be the far northwest and north central, near the International Border, where MVFR ceilings will approach from the north and may impact KXWA. Widespread MVFR ceilings then develop Thursday evening at all terminals, with a chance for IFR cigs as well, as a weather disturbance brings rain and snow chances to the region. Generally light easterly winds early this morning, then northeast winds across the north and southerly winds in the south, both becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Winds then turn northerly across the forecast area Thursday afternoon as a cold front pushes south, with winds remaining gusty to 25 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH  806 FXUS66 KPDT 160934 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 234 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing morning lows today and Friday in the lower elevations - Breezy conditions continue through this evening - Dry conditions will develop this evening, and persist into the weekend && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday morning: Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper closed directly over the PacNW, with the center of the circulation centered over northeast WA and northern ID. The low's position has resulted in upslope light snow showers continuing along the Cascade crest and the northern Blues this early morning. A winter storm warning is still in effect along the OR Cascade east slopes through 5AM this morning, with only 1 to 2 more inches of additional accumulations by then. Light snow showers along the Cascade crest and northern Blue mountains as well as breezy west to northwest winds in the lower elevations will continue today as the forecast area remains under the influence of the upper low. The low will continue to push a colder airmass in the region, which will result in near to below freezing temperatures across portions of the lower elevations, especially those under clearing skies and light winds. Of particular concern this morning will be the Yakima/Kittitas valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue mountains in OR, where there is mod-high confidence (65-85%) of freezing temperatures this morning. Freeze warnings are in effect for this morning for these areas. Tonight, an upper ridge in the northeast Pacific will approach the PacNW, bringing with it light winds and clearing skies across the forecast area. These conditions will lead to better chances for widespread freezing morning lows Friday, impacting the growing areas of the lower elevations, especially where there are freeze warnings in effect for Friday morning in the lower Columbia Basin and adjacent foothills/valleys. After Friday, dry conditions, light winds, and warming temperatures will persist through Sunday. Sunday, the upper ridge over the region will push east of the region as an upper closed low develops in the Northeast Pacific, then setting up offshore the PacNW and northern CA. There is decent agreement amongst ensemble and deterministic model guidance that precip will remain mainly west of the Cascade crest early Sunday. Sunday afternoon through Wednesday: Ensemble guidance stays in good agreement the latter of Sunday in the low placing the region under a southerly flow aloft. This places the region under favorable conditions for increasing instability across southern and central OR Sunday afternoon, translating to isolated shower and/or isolated thunderstorms (confidence 55-70%). After Sunday, uncertainty grows amongst ensemble members on the position and evolution of the upper low as it swings into the western CONUS early next week. There is consensus among cluster solutions that the low will swing inland between northern CA and southwestern OR Monday, and lift east to northeast into the PacNW as it moves further inland (confidence 45-65%). For Monday, the position of the low still along the shoreline would favor another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon (confidence 40-50%). However the low tracks inland after Monday, there is growing confidence (confidence 50-65%) in increasing precipitation chances from south to north that will persist into the mid-week. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...VFR conditions prevail through the period, with breezy to locally windy conditions being the main weather concern this period. TAF sites across PDT, YKM, and ALW are reporting 20-30 mph gusts that will at least continue through the overnight hours. Winds overall will decrease by tomorrow night but PDT and DLS is forecasted to remain breezy through the next 24-hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 54 30 58 34 / 20 0 0 0 ALW 54 35 58 38 / 30 0 0 0 PSC 61 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 30 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 50 30 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 49 20 58 28 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 46 27 54 32 / 50 10 0 0 GCD 45 23 55 31 / 40 0 0 0 DLS 56 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for WAZ026>028. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for WAZ026-027. OR...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ044-507. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...95  655 FXUS66 KLOX 160941 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 241 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...16/120 AM. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/239 AM. Expect to see patchy fog in the Salinas River Valley and possibly the LA Basin early this morning, along with some mid to high level clouds passing over the area throughout the day. A cold inside slider continues to track through the Great Basin and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California over the next few days. Winds today will increase and turn offshore over the interior, with the strongest gusts near the I-5 corridor and Antelope Valley. Current wind advisories for this area look on track. These offshore winds will likely lead to warming near the coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County. As winds shift to the northeast this evening, they strengthen further, reaching wind advisory levels for the Santa Lucia Mountains, Santa Ynez Range, possibly the interior Santa Barbara County mountains. Will also likely need wind advisories Thursday night for the Antelope Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana prone areas by Friday morning. The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the coast and valleys today leading to 2-4 degrees of warming today. However, thick high clouds could limit warming at least through mid afternoon. Upper level winds will shift more east into Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly low end high wind warning levels in the mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt, so there is 20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains. Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coasts and valleys. Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/238 AM. Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas. The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north of Point Conception. && .AVIATION...16/0640Z. At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 18 C. Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through 17Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high confidence in TAFs. There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions develop between 07Z-16Z Thursday at KSMX (30%) and KPRB (20%), and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%). KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, and again after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-015 conds between 07Z-16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 5 kt 10-15Z each morning. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...16/230 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones. However, localized gale force gusts are possible early this morning. Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning and then diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts this evening. Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight. On Friday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to Malibu on Friday morning, there is a 30% chance for Gale Force winds near the coast, and especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW/Lund AVIATION...Lund MARINE...DB/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  202 FXUS61 KBUF 160948 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 548 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Areas of fog are possible northeast of Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Fog is also possible tonight. The severe thunderstorm risk has increased slightly across western and central NY this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with damaging winds as the main hazard. 2) Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. 3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with damaging winds as the main hazard. GOES water vapor shows an upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS with moisture streaming across the Great Lakes and Northeastern states early this morning. Satellite derived moisture fields show a broad area of PWATS over 1.25" and percent of normal at 200%. A shortwave trough will move into the Mid- western states this morning. An area of low pressure from southern Wisconsin to central Michigan will move northeast today. Initially, an uptick in winds and warm air advection across the northern Ohio valley will support showers and isolated thunderstorms across far western NY this morning. As the surface low moves northwest of the forecast area, a cold front will approach the region today. A very moist airmass and daytime heating will result in destabilization across the region. Guidance remains uncertain regarding the magnitude of instability across interior western and north- central NY today, with the HREF more favorable for moderate instability and the REFS more subdued. Earlier showers and cloud cover especially across far western NY may lead to more inhibition. Forecast 0-6km shear is around 40kts this afternoon and the combination of moderate shear and instability will support the development of strong to severe multicell, possibly supercells. The primary threat will be damaging winds, however large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. In fact, HREF guidance depicts a differential heating boundary along the southern shore of Lake Ontario into the eastern Lake Ontario region that could be a zone for severe thunderstorms. The SPC Day 1 outlook has Marginal and Slight risk areas across the forecast area. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze early this afternoon and move eastward while tapping into a favorable environment for strong thunderstorms. Due to the moist airmass, thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, however quick moving storms should limit any hydro concerns. The area of low pressure will move northeast of the region with the cold front moving into the forecast area and stalling overnight. The potential for strong thunderstorms will exit to the east this evening, but scattered showers will be possible overnight. Also, patchy fog is possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. A deep closed low trudging across the southern Canadian Prairies Friday night through Saturday night will lift northeast across Hudson Bay and further strengthen by Sunday. This will send a powerful cold front through the eastern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A strong southwesterly LLJ immediately ahead of the front transporting a plume of Gulf-based moisture across the Mississippi Valley will support another round of widespread rain showers. Diurnal timing of the front looks favorable for enough instability to grow within the warm sector to potentially bring a few thunderstorms as well. Uncertainty remains moderate to high in the severe potential as models advertise the LLJ weakening over the region as the precip moves in Saturday afternoon. While the greatest threat thus appears to be upstream across the Ohio Valley, could see a lower-end threat extending northeast into WNY where the stronger jet energy and building instability have the most favorable overlap in our forecast area. The strong, unidirectional mid/upper level flow may support a linear convective mode with a few localized strong wind gusts. The heaviest, steadiest precipitation should lie east of the forecast area by early Sunday morning. Mid to long range guidance suggests a secondary wave developing along the front in the Mid- Atlantic region Saturday night which may slow its overall progression, while the main trough axis will not move through until Sunday night. This will continue to support lower-end chances for showers, though the colder, more stable post-frontal environment will be highly unfavorable for thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much colder air arrives by early next week. While temps will cool off a few degrees for Friday as the quasi- stationary boundary hanging over the region is firmly shoved to the southeast, above average temperatures will persist through Saturday. The more substantial pattern change will come behind the cold front described in Key Message (2) as deep upper level troughing crosses the Northeast. 850mb temps around +15C Saturday afternoon will tumble to either side of -6C by Sunday morning, then bottom out around -12C Monday morning. This will translate to sfc high temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees (F) below normal Sunday through Monday night. Overnight lows will be similarly cold, with areawide temps dipping below freezing and potentially even into the teens across the higher terrain areas, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place. The trough axis moving through the region combined with some minor lake enhancement and upslope effects may even support a few snow showers or flurries at times early next week. Impactful accumulations appear very unlikely at this range. High pressure at all levels cresting over and east of the region should cause a southerly flow to develop by Tuesday, with temperatures recovering to near climatological averages through midweek. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few rounds of showers are expected to move into western NY this morning. A warm, humid airmass resides across the region. Low stratus and areas of fog are located across the region with IFR/LIFR at the TAF sites. Flight conditions are expected to lift northward and improve across BUF/IAG/ROC and improve across other portions of the region as showers arrive this morning. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to persist at ART through daybreak, and slowly improve through 13z. Showers are likely east of Lake Ontario through this morning and may disrupt/improve flight conditions before falling back down. An area of scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm are possible across far western NY through the morning hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the region today, with the potential for isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. Scattered showers and patchy fog are expected with flight conditions lowering to IFR or below across the region overnight. Outlook... Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers later in the afternoon. Sunday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with rain showers mixing with and changing over to snow throughout the day. Monday...Improving to VFR/MVFR. Lingering lake enhanced snow showers and clouds gradually dissipate. && .MARINE... A warm, humid airmass will reside across the eastern Great Lakes through Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will cross the lakes today, a few of which may produce strong surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise the warmer airmass and relatively cold lake temperatures will result in limited mixing of synoptic winds...thereby precluding any real risk of advisory- level conditions. Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are then expected later tonight and Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes...before winds increase out of the south/southwest Saturday/Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of a strong cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA conditions with the frontal passage also accompanied by another round of showers and storms...some of which could produce locally stronger winds and higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK/PP AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/JJR  990 FXUS62 KILM 160948 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 548 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Model consensus is for a slightly faster arrival of the cold front on Sunday, leading to cooler forecast highs. No significant changes have been made to Sunday's forecast rain chances. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. The upper ridge along the Southeast U.S. coast is at its strongest right now and will weaken with the approach of a modest shortwave trough moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Friday. As the shortwave moves offshore late Friday, heights will rise again across the Southeast for what may be our hottest day, Saturday, so far in 2026. All this upper ridging is supporting Bermuda high pressure at the surface and warm southwesterly synoptic winds should continue through the first half of Sunday. Models remain very stable in their depiction of well above normal 850 mb temps across the eastern Carolinas for the next few days. 850 mb temps near +16C today and Friday could surge to +17 to +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge restrengthens. This is 3 to 4C above the 90th percentile climo values on SPC's sounding climatology webpage and is very near normal for mid July. This should translate to high temperatures inland near 90 degrees today and Friday, then rising into the lower 90s on Saturday. Onshore synoptic and seabreeze winds near the coast should keep daytime temperatures 6-12 degrees cooler. Our latest forecast explicitly forecasts Florence's record to be tied today and Lumberton's record to be tied on Saturday. It will likely be no more than 3 degrees away from all record highs at Wilmington, Lumberton, and Florence over the next several days, so no records are truly safe. Inland from the cooler coastline, vertical mixing should be deep enough to bring down drier air from within the subsidence inversion aloft. Dewpoints should crash through the 50s across the Pee Dee and Border Belt regions each afternoon. This should result in minimum relative humidity of 30-35 percent today and 25-30 percent Friday and Saturday. Given it's now been ten days with no measurable rainfall and fuel/soil moisture continues to decrease, Fire Danger Statements will likely be needed each day for portions of the Carolinas. Record highs today through Saturday: .............Thu Apr 16...Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington......90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night. An energetic shortwave moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday and New England on Monday will push a surface cold front through the Carolinas Sunday. Model trends are slightly faster with this feature than 24 hours ago which implies the front could slide offshore before peak heating (and before potential peak instability) in the afternoon. From a qualitative view, the 850-700 mb Gulf moisture surge arriving coincident with the front looks a bit better than was depicted over the past few days. Therefore shower or t-storm chances are essentially unchanged at 20-30 percent on Sunday, diminishing rapidly Sunday evening behind the front. A Canadian airmass building across the area Sunday night through Tuesday will bring refreshingly cool nights and dry, pleasant days. Sunday night's lows should reach the mid 40s with some wind. By Monday night lower to middle 40s are expected, but less wind means normally colder spots on peat and organic soils could dip into the 30s. Temperatures should moderate back toward normal by Wednesday as the Canadian high pushes offshore. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Mainly intermittent cirrus and a few cu with possibility of smoke across northeast SC from a couple of fires in Williamsburg and Marion counties. S to SW winds will persist with winds less than 10 kts overnight and becoming gusty during the afternoon...southwest 10 kts with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Summer-like Bermuda High will maintain a quiet and persistent forecast. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Friday through Monday...A light to moderate southwesterly wind will continue up until the arrival of a cold front during the day Sunday. Synoptic winds should average 10-12 knots, but the seabreeze each afternoon will increase nearshore winds as high as 15-20 kt. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with an east- southeast 9 second swell generated by a long easterly fetch south of the Bermuda high. The aforementioned cold front should arrive at the beaches around noon on Sunday, followed by a sudden shift to northerly winds which could increase to 20-25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/RGZ  111 FXUS63 KSGF 160948 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 448 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After 2-4 inches of rain on Wednesday, residual flooding is expected to linger in portions of the Ozarks through the day, with an Areal Flood Warning in effect for the affected corridor until 1 PM. Minor flooding is also ongoing in small tributaries and in the Little Osage and Spring River basins. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm development possible late this morning into early afternoon, especially in south-central Missouri. If storms can develop, there would be a chance of severe hail and damaging winds, but any risk would be conditional on the development of thunderstorms. - Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible, but widespread damaging winds in excess of 70-80+ mph will be the primary severe hazard as a squall line with several bowing segments develops along the cold front. - Excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: The remnants of Wednesday evening's showers and thunderstorms are pushing to the east, carried by the low-level jet streak. An upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low are lifting across the Great Lakes region; another shortwave trough across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning will bring modest height falls to the region into the mid-afternoon before assimilating into the flow across the Great Lakes. Upstream, a deepening trough with a closed low aloft is approaching from the Pacific Northwest. Yesterday's convection brought 2-4" of rainfall to a corridor of the forecast area, where flash flooding occurred and/or is still occurring, and an Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for much of that area until 1 PM this afternoon. Showers & Thunderstorms Today: It's far from a slam dunk, but many CAMs indicate that additional shower and thunderstorm development may occur again this afternoon in south-central Missouri. 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE builds by 18-19Z, when the cap becomes eroded. The ingredients for a similar setup to yesterday will all largely come together slightly further east in the eastern Ozarks, with the exception of an obvious forcing mechanism. Low-level ridging slowly builds through the day, which would imply subsidence, but the 500mb/250mb waves in the Panhandles will lift northeast across the area through the morning and early afternoon, with the associated vort maxes creating divergence aloft. The last bits of convection are likely so weak that there won't be any residual cold pool/outflow strong enough to trigger anything, but widespread cloud cover will exit the area with the showers, allowing 0-3km lapse rates to approach 8C/km as the surface warms. High temperatures this afternoon are in the 77-83F range, and convective temperatures around 76-78F suggest simple differential heating may be enough to get something going. 30-40kts of bulk shear and straight hodographs suggest that if storms do develop, conditions will be sufficient for severe hail with splitting storms and/or multicell clusters. The window for these storms to develop would be relatively short, between 18-22Z by most model consensus. By 23-00Z this evening, the upper-level support has moved east of the area, ending the window for severe storm development. HREF neighborhood probabilities of severe hail have a bullseye of 5-14% in areas east of Highway 65 and south of I-44. A broader area of 5-14% chances of severe wind remain confined to areas east of Highway 65 but extend north of I-44 into central Missouri, though a small bullseye of 15-29% probs of severe wind develop in our far southeast corner (Oregon County) and extend into northeast Arkansas. The REFS probabilities also show 5-14% chances of severe hail and wind in south-central Missouri during the same window (1PM - 5PM), further substantiating that the risk exists if a storm can develop. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Friday remains on track to be an active severe weather day. The synoptic trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest ejects into the Central Plains and overspreads a plume of warm, dry air (700-500mb lapse rates 8-9C/km). HREF mean SBCAPE exceeds 3000 J/kg, so ample instability will be in place by the early afternoon for supercell development. The cold front plunges south through the Northern Plains during the day on Friday, which appears to keep the most volatile severe environment to our north, but our environment will still be quite juicy for the storms to tap into when they arrive with the cold front. An additional, lower-confidence scenario includes discrete supercells popping up within the warm sector ahead of the cold frontal passage. Expected evolution at this time appears to be a low chance for discrete supercells across the area in the afternoon hours, before the cold front reaches our northern edge counties in the late afternoon/early evening hours. While supercells could support large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds, our primary severe risk will be with the cold frontal passage. CAMs are in good agreement that with 50-90kts of bulk shear, the storms that develop along the cold front will nearly immediately turn into a line, with numerous embedded bowing segments. Supercells ahead of the line could locally enhance sfc vorticity as they get overtaken by the accelerating squall line, leading to areas of increased embedded tornado potential. Several CAMs also suggest that our northwesternmost counties will have a short window of locally higher tornado chances around nightfall as the low-level jet kicks in and more curved hodographs overlap in time and space with 100+ J/kg of 0-3km CAPE ahead of the front along the low-level theta-e gradient. Now that we've gotten the tornado talk out of the way, I would like to be clear that damaging winds are by FAR the most likely severe hazard on Friday evening. Winds in excess of 80 mph will be possible along the apex of any accelerating bowing segments that develop along the front. Not everywhere should expect to see winds that high, but wide swaths of 60+ mph winds is a realistic expectation to set. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Deep convection is ending as widespread thunderstorms transition into a more stratiform precip deck with smaller pockets of embedded convection, leaving an isolated threat for VCTS but mostly just rainfall over the next 1-3 hours. Rain continues pushing south and east, remaining in VFR for most of the critical period with brief MVFR conditions developing around 12Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KVIH: 85/2006 April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976 April 16: KSGF: 66/1963 April 17: KSGF: 66/1976 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden  296 FXUS63 KIWX 160951 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 551 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning showers will gradually dissipate toward mid morning. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again today particularly across northeast Indiana, south central Lower Michigan, and far northwest Ohio. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few showers and storms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail this afternoon. - More showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday night into Saturday. There is some strong to severe wind gusts with these thunderstorms late Friday night through mid afternoon Saturday. - Much cooler for Sunday behind a cold front, but temperatures moderate early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A 55 to 65 knot upper speed max progressing through southwest upper flow and strong low level moisture transport is aiding in multiple clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Low level CIN has developed locally which should tend to decrease this convection over next few hours. Some lingering outflow has resulted in some isolated gusts over 40 mph, and this may continue to be the case through 10Z. While additional precipitation this morning may only be in the quarter to half inch range with the heavier pockets of rainfall, this added rain in areas which have experienced heavy multi-day rain amounts could lead to some minor flooding. Current expectation is that Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 12Z. For today, the more amplified upper level trough will lift northeast to southeast Ontario as it encounters and dampens the stubborn mean eastern CONUS upper ridge. This track will make for slow southeast progress to lagging low level front this afternoon. Deeper moisture axis should be shifting east of the local area this morning, but cooling aloft with the upper level low track should allow for some weak to moderate sfc based instability to develop this afternoon (500-1200 J/kg). The track of mid/upper level reflection will result in gradually waning deep layer shear profiles today, and thus not a great co-location of instability/shear parameters. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completed ruled out especially in a brief window during mid-late afternoon closer to the upper level system where mid level lapse rates are maximized across NE IN/SC Lower MI/far NW Ohio, but overall severe threat today is substantially lower than previous few days. With only a partial dampening of the eastern CONUS ridging today, associated sfc boundary is not expected to make significant southward progress tonight and will likely stall across northern IN/northwest OH tonight. Weak flow in vicinity of this trough, partial clearing and likely good near sfc moisture lingering beneath low level inversion suggest potential of fog formation tonight. Mid level ridging quickly amplifies Thursday night into Friday downstream of a more significant upper level trough that will dig across the Rockies on Friday. Strong low level moisture transport will be confined west of the local area from southern Plains into eastern Iowa on Friday which is where convective initiation is expected. Progression of this longwave feature will increase convective chances locally especially after 06Z Friday night. Upstream convective line should tend to outrun better instability as it reaches western Great Lakes overnight Friday night, but potential exists that some severe wind potential could be maintained into western portions of the forecast area overnight. Strong background wind fields should also yield strong westerly 0-3km line normal shear vectors which could induce some QLCS processes. Far southeast portions of the forecast remain in SWODY3 Marginal Risk outlook, with overall trend to fast frontal progression likely limiting severe risk locally for Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday will feature below normal temps behind the associated Saturday cold front but mid level heights should recover late Monday in advance of a more broad south central Canadian upper trough. A cool frontal boundary with this feature will likely graze southern Great Lakes region for middle of next week. It does appear as though we could be headed to a more seasonable temperature pattern next week with indications in medium range guidance of a more stable longwave pattern developing of western CONUS trough, central CONUS ridge, and eastern CONUS trough. This would result in more limited day to day thermal advections and at least some break from the active recent severe weather pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A 60-70 knot upper speed max progressing through southwest upper flow and low level moisture transport have helped sustain showers across northern Indiana this morning. Over the next few hours better moisture transport and deeper moisture profiles will shift east of the area with an accompanying decrease in shower coverage. The greater coverage of additional showers/isolated thunderstorms today is expected across far northern/northeast Indiana as an upper level trough shifts across the Great Lakes. Steeper mid level lapse rates with this feature should result in scattered showers/isolated storms this afternoon. With low level moisture profiles not as impressive today, coverage should be more limited and will limit shower mention to PROB30 this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but confidence is too for TAF inclusion given more limited instability. Cig forecast is of low confidence to begin this period. Proximity of low level boundary to Lake Michigan leads to come concern for MVFR or IFR cigs early this morning before better low level mixing occurs. Deteriorating aviation conditions are possible tonight as sfc trough should sink across far northern Indiana with greater fog potential late this period given weakening winds, partial clearing, lingering low level moisture trapped beneath the inversion. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104- 116-203-204-216. OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025. MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Marsili  683 FXUS61 KRLX 160954 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 554 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing on the system impacting the area this afternoon and tonight is faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening eastward, directly over the forecast area. Timing of the weekend cold front is also faster, and the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley with a Marginal Risk extending east from there for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Unseasonably to near-record high temperatures will persist through Saturday. - 2) Increased fire danger is expected through the rest of the work week. Dry dead fuels and low relative humidity will be joined by wind gusts of 15-25 mph today. - 3) A few strong to Marginally Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. - 4) A sharp cold front crossing late Saturday into Saturday night will end the warm spell, bringing a period of beneficial rain Saturday afternoon and night including strong to possibly Marginally Severe Storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and then colder weather for Sunday and Monday. - 5) Much cooler and mainly dry weather follows the cold front for the early portion of next week. There is the potential for frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings, along with minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid/upper-level ridge gives way to a mid/upper-level trough today, and then rebuilds behind the system on Friday. This will maintain the well-above normal temperatures, although the faster timing of the systems may make record highs harder to breach today and Saturday. In addition, the ridge does not build back as strong as it is early this morning, so highs Friday remain a bit stunted as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will be in the 30s through the balance of the week, although this will be limited to areas east of the Ohio River by incoming systems from the west today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages will then be in the 20s next Sunday through Tuesday. With wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph most days (less Friday), and only a couple of opportunities for a conditional wetting rain, afternoon and evening fire danger is likely to be enhanced. This may be mitigated by rapidly increased canopy coverage across the lowlands. Fuels are exceptionally dry. This, coupled with wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, elevates fire danger today. Lighter winds, and an intervening conditional wetting rain this afternoon and tonight, may mitigate fire danger concerns a bit on Friday. Saturday may then turn out similar to today, with intervening drying and gusty winds, but with another system incoming from the west. KEY MESSAGE 3... Timing continues to trend faster on a mid/upper-level short wave trough approaching from the west early this morning and now forecast to cross the area this afternoon and tonight. This is fast enough to increase shear during peak afternoon heating, and the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening eastward, so that it is now directly over the forecast area. The primary severe weather threats are damaging wind gusts due to adequate shear amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads, and hail from discrete cells given adequate CAPE through the hail growth layer. The showers and thunderstorms will also be somewhat beneficial in terms of a conditional wetting rain, but not put much of a dent in our drought conditions given at best modest area- averaged QPF amid the dry sub-cloud layer. Friday into early Saturday look mainly dry between systems, the next one in the next key message. KEY MESSAGE 4... A significant pattern shift remains on track for this weekend as a deep trough moves into the eastern U.S. Timing continues to trend faster on this system as well, with showers are likely and thunderstorms possible as this trough drives a strong surface cold front eastward across the area late Saturday into Saturday night. This system is again likely to get close enough to enhance diurnal convection via increased shear. The instability forecast will again need watched given the strong shear associated with the system, and timing nearly coincident with diurnal heating. While instability is not expected to be anywhere near the magnitude forecast ahead of the front upstream Friday afternoon and evening, the evolution of the system results in a better intersection of the strong shear with the instability axis. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley coincident with the intersection of strong shear and instability Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with a Marginal Risk extending eastward from there to encompass the majority of the remaining lowlands over West Virginia, as the wind and hail threats wane with eastward extent through the evening. This system will again provide minimal drought relief although the evening showers and storms may evolve into a somewhat beneficial additional nighttime wetting rain. Another dry period is to follow, next key message. KEY MESSAGE 5... A period of dry, cooler weather will start the new week, as cool Canadian high pressure builds behind a large mid/upper- level long wave but transient trough moves offshore. Strong cold advection in the wake of the front drops h85 temperatures significantly, to -5C give or take Sunday night, compared with the +15C or so h85 temperatures of the current unseasonably warm spell. Highs will retreat to the 50s to low 60s F for Sunday and Monday, with areas subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers seeing frost potential Monday and Tuesday mornings, the high building into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday night, and still hanging on in the mountains Monday night. Temperatures moderate promptly for highs Tuesday and lows Tuesday night, as the exiting high allows return south to southwest flow beneath rising heights behind the exiting trough, although another may drop in midweek. The dry weather continues, to include the lack of significant rain and low afternoon relative humidity, though the surface front associated with the new short wave brings a low-end chance for showers midweek. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue into early this afternoon, then brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible within any showers or thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon or evening. Late-day thunderstorms today can produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts, and hail. In the wake of the system overnight tonight, there may be MVFR mist, and MVFR stratocumulus is likely in and near the mountains. Light south to southwest winds early this morning strengthen again later this morning, with 15 to 25 kt gusts today, before becoming light southwest to variable tonight. Late-day thunderstorms could produce strong to even marginally severe wind gusts. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts today will fluctuate, possibly including stronger gusts than forecast, especially in the case of a direct thunderstorm impact, which could also be accompanied by brief IFR or worse conditions. There may be minimal low level wind shear overnight tonight. MVFR or worse mist or low cloud formation overnight tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night. && Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------- Thu, 4/16 | Fri, 4/17 | -------------------------------------- CRW | 86 / 89 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | HTS | 84 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) | CKB | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) | PKB | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) | BKW | 81 / 84 (2002) | 76 / 84 (1976) | EKN | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) | -------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TRM AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM  951 FXUS63 KMPX 160958 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 458 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today, with critical fire weather conditions across western MN on this afternoon. - A very strong cold front will trek east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 early Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35. - Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today and Tonight: Current observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s, with light and variable winds across the region. Southerly winds will ramp up after daybreak with gusts up to 30 mph likely across western Minnesota. Our primary concern today will be near critical fire weather conditions across western Minnesota. Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region ahead of the next low pressure system. The combination of gusty southerly winds and low RH values between 15 to 25 percent prompted an upgrade of our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for portions of west-central and southwest MN. Warm air advection via the southerly winds will keep our low temperatures tonight close to our average high temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the 50s to 60 in the Twin Cities. Friday and Friday night: Attention turns to Friday as a strong cold front is progged to move through the region late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and 70s ahead of the front, but the frontal passage will cause temperatures fall 20 to 25 degrees in the afternoon. Storms and showers will develop along the frontal boundary around lunchtime/Noon. Guidance suggests the storms really get going east of I-35 in western Wisconsin. The environment in the warm sector is favorable for severe weather. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms start off as discrete cells before quickly congealing into a squall line that'll pose a primary wind/tornado threat as it moves east across WI. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) remains for much of our W WI counties, but a sliver of Eau Claire county is now in an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5). Forecast soundings highlight a very favorable low level shear environment across central WI along the sfc low pressure track. Overall, the best threat of severe weather is east of our forecast area, but we'll have to keep an eye on the initial thunderstorms that develop Friday afternoon. These could produce hail and damaging winds before turning into a linear mode. Precipitation will changeover to snow Friday evening as colder air works in. Thankfully, the snow potential remains well off to our north. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and lower 30s Friday night with. A few Saturday through next Thursday: Saturday and Sunday are going to a snap back to more typical April weather with highs in the 40s and low 50. A few "mood flakes" are possible on Saturday with cold air aloft under the high pressure, but nothing more than that. The pattern will dry out through middle of next week. Temperatures begin to rebound as the surface high shifts to the east and warm air advection ramps up in the southerly return flow. Highs will return back into the 60s and 70s for the first half of the new work week before another organized system looks to impact the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fog never made it to EAU so I have removed the TEMPO group. VFR is expected is expected the entire period. Southerly winds will increase in speed by mid-morning at all sites. Gusts up to 30 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours. Gusts will reach 25 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will build in tonight into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. KMSP... No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BPH