449 FXUS63 KGID 161011 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather concerns again take center stage today, with our entire forecast area (CWA) under a Red Flag Warning this afternoon-evening due to a combination of very low relative humidity and southerly winds gusting up to 30-35 MPH. Additional rounds of potentially widespread critical conditions look to materialize Saturday and possibly Monday (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details). - A strong cold front slices southward into our CWA late tonight into Friday morning, with wind gusts at least 40-45 MPH at times (especially during and for the first few hours behind the initial frontal passage). - Friday is looking ever-more like the least-pleasant day of the next week, with moderately-strong north winds and temperatures that keep trending cooler with high temps now only expected into the 50s across most of our CWA, but still 60s to maybe near-70 in our south-southeast. - Although SPC's initial Day 2 severe storm outlook technically still clips our EXTREME southeastern CWA with the edges of a Marginal Risk for late Friday afternoon-evening, an almost overwhelming consensus of various models strongly argues that any such threat should focus at least 30-50 miles southeast of our CWA altogether. As a result, here at the local level we have removed any thunderstorm chances from our far southeast counties, and also removed a severe possibility from our forecast, Hazardous Weather Outlook etc. - Although in most years this would be considered a bit early for spring Frost/Freeze "headlines", with growing degree days (GDD) metrics putting us roughly THREE WEEKS "ahead of schedule" on plant growth this spring...we have now "green lighted" issuance of seasonal Frost/Freeze headlines starting with this weekend. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the majority of our CWA for late Fri night-early Sat AM, with additional headlines probably eventually needed for late Sat night-Sun AM too. - Precipitation-wise next 7 days: While a rogue sprinkle or light shower cannot be totally ruled out Fri-Fri night, our official forecast is (unfortunately) dry Saturday-Tuesday, with still-rather-uncertain rain/thunderstorm chances then returning perhaps as early as Wednesday afternoon. - Temperature-wise next 7 days: Solidly above normal highs in the 80s prevail today and again Mon-Wed. In between, Fri-Sat are by far the coolest days (highs 50s/60s), with Sunday then a "transition day" with highs mainly 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - Although we might still be playing "catch up" a bit with latest model trends, high temps for Friday were lowered a notable 4-7 degrees from previous forecast, as confidence grows that the majority of our CWA will not exceed the 50s behind a strong cold front. - For any longer -term forecast related notes beyond Friday night please refer to the Key Messages outlined above, and for any specific fire weather details please refer to the separate section at the bottom of this product. -- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through early Sat AM): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Briefly looking back at yesterday, as was fully outlined as a possibility...we indeed dealt with a few/spotty severe storms that impacted mainly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA during the morning into early afternoon (a few hail reports up to ping pong ball size). Thereafter, a smattering of weaker (but occasionally strong) storms affected various areas before all convection vacated our far eastern counties around 8 PM. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that the associated upper level low that brought yesterday's more active weather has since departed well-eastward into the IA/IL/WI border area, putting our local area under temporary, weak ridging. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure is shifting into the western Dakotas, but so far our pressure gradient locally is still rather weak. As a result, breezes over our CWA are rather light...mainly under 10 MPH mainly out of the southwest, but with some stations reporting near-calm. Given pristinely clear skies and the lighter winds, overnight low temps are on track to bottom out somewhere in the 40s most areas, although some spots have nudged back up into the low 50s, while others have tumbled into at least the upper 30s. - TODAY-THIS EVENING (pre-midnight): As our next large-scale upper trough gradually approaches from the Northern Rockies, low pressure will intensify at the surface to our west and north, thus tightening up the pressure gradient and bringing strengthening southerly winds. This morning, breezes will remain lighter and more west-southwesterly. However, by mid- late afternoon steady southerly breezes sustained 15-25 MPH/gusting up to 30-35 MPH will be established. Under plentiful sunshine, temps will get a decent boost from yesterday...and made little change to previous forecast with highs aimed 84-87 most areas. This evening, winds will remain breezy but turn southeasterly ahead of a sharp, approaching cold front. - LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY AM: Around 3-4 AM, the aforementioned sharp cold front will begin to steadily slice southward into our CWA, making it at least halfway through by sunrise Friday, then making it through the remainder of our area by mid-late morning. As the front passes, most places will likely see up to a few hours of wind gusts up around 40-45 MPH (fortunately shy of High Wind criteria). Official overnight low temps (through sunrise) are a bit tricky and will depend on EXACT frontal timing, but are currently aimed from low 40s far northwest to upper 50s far southeast. - FRIDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (through around midnight): Aloft, the large-scale trough arrives into the Central Plains, while at the surface the cold front just keeps charging southward. Precipitation-wise, while suppose a very spotty sprinkle/light shower cannot be totally ruled out within our CWA before sunset, several models are now almost insistent that the cold front will safely clear even our southeastern-most CWA before any severe thunderstorms have a chance to erupt by mid- late afternoon into the evening. Even post-frontal elevated instability no longer appears to be much of a concern, so we have all put closed the book on a severe storm risk in our CWA. What WILL occur is a seasonably-cool day, with sustained winds commonly 20-30 MPH/gusts 35-40 MPH. Leaning on higher-res model data, high temps were lowered a good 4-7 degrees from our previous forecast, ranging from low 50s northwest (barely 50 for Ord/Gothenburg areas), mid-upper 50s central (including Tri Cities), and any 60s to MAYBE near 70 confined to our southeast 1/4th or so. During the evening, models hint that some spotty/chilly rain showers could try getting into mainly our southern/southwestern CWA, but this looks quite minor if it even happens, and any precip should end before it would get cold enough to turn to a dusting of snow. - FRIDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SAT AM: As skies gradually clear and winds gradually diminish (sustained speeds down to 10 MPH or less within a few hours before sunrise, the stage will be set for a seasonably-cold Saturday morning. Low temps are aimed from mainly mid-upper 40s northwest, to low- mid 30s southeast, bringing freeze concerns into play (and possibly some frost development, especially far west). To better coordinate with neighboring offices to our west that already issued Freeze Watches yesterday, we went ahead and joined in with a Freeze Watch for the vast majority of our CWA, except for a handful of far eastern/southeast counties that are currently expected to remain just above freezing or barely reach the freezing mark for a very short time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 It's been a steadily active day thus far, with a couple different rounds or bursts of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity is being driven by steep low level lapse rates/heating-of-the-day beneath a weakening mid level low pressure system currently lifting E/NE across Nebraska. Had a few marginally severe storms earlier in the day, but deep layer shear has really dropped off under the mid level low to help offset any sort of modest increase in instability caused by warming into the 60s and 70s. Thus, don't expect anything more than maybe isolated/brief pea-sized hail in only the strongest of cores. Models haven't really been handling this activity very well (too dry and/or sparse), but conceptually speaking, would expect a rather rapid decline with loss of insolation this evening. Rest of the overnight looks quiet and seasonably mild as winds gradually turn to the S. Main concern for Thursday will be fire weather - which is discussed in greater detail below. Going to be a warm and breezy one ahead of our next cold front. Bumped up highs 1-2 degrees for most spots given deep mixing, little cloud cover, and dry ground/drought conditions...and expect nearly everyone to reach at least the mid 80s. Typical warm spots could flirt with 90F. Timing of our next cold front appears to be generally on track with recent forecasts...late Thursday night into Friday AM from NW to SE. Models continue to indicate fairly strong NW winds behind the front, with gusts generally in the 40-45 MPH, perhaps locally higher. Latest EPS gives 60-80% chances of gusts at least 40 MPH for large majority of the forecast area, and very little to no chance for gusts over 55 MPH. Thus, do not anticipate needing a High Wind Warning at this time. Frontal timing is definitely not very conducive to organized convection, or even rainfall, for our area. By 21Z, model consensus is for the sfc front to stretch from ICT to STJ - or well to our SE. And with continued, steady SEward progression Thu PM, think even elevated convection will be tough to come by. Latest forecast maintains some 20-30% PoPs on Friday for extreme SE zones, but this could be generous. Lastly...seasonably chilly air will filter in behind the cold front for the weekend. Saturday actually looks quite blustery and chilly - esp. in the AM - with continued breezy conditions and highs only in the 50s. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s both nights (coldest N/W of the Tri-Cities). This type of cold isn't overly uncommon for our area in mid-April (typical last freeze isn't until last week of April or first week of May for all but our far SE)...but with the incredibly mild late winter and early spring...many plants/trees and even general society is running 2-3 weeks ahead of "normal". Thus, will likely need some sort of mix of frost and freeze headlines this weekend to draw attention to the cold temperatures. The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States trough early next week. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Skies largely remain mostly clear-clear through the period, some upper level clouds look to start streaming into the area from the southwest during the evening hours. Winds tonight remain on the lighter side around 10 MPH...starting out southerly, turning more southwesterly. During the daytime hours today, winds remain south-southwestely, with afternoon gusts of 25-35 MPH expected. Gusty conditions look to continue on through the end of this period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 455 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2026 Though spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred over the past few days across pockets (far from all) of our forecast area, it remains overall-dry and spring-green-up has yet to fully take hold in most areas. As a result, fire weather concerns remain in place on various upcoming days. The following focuses on fire weather details through these next five days (Thursday-Monday). - THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING: Although winds will not be overly-strong this afternoon-evening, the combination of southerly speeds sustained 15-25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35 MPH, in combination with afternoon relative humidity (RH) bottoming out 10-16 percent across nearly our entire forecast area (in the presence of another round of very warm temperatures with highs into at least the mid 80s), all adds up to another solidly-critical fire weather setup. As a result, our entire forecast area remains under a Red Flag Warning from Noon-Midnight. While the worst conditions will certainly occur this afternoon into early this evening, and RH will rise/recover fairly steadily after sunset especially in counties along/east of Highway 281, RH recoverly will be noticeably slower the farther west one goes. In fact, especially our far western counties (namely Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) are not expected to see RH get back above 20% until at least 10-11 PM. As a result, the Warning extends later into the night than "usual", but again this is mainly to account for the slow RH recover in western areas. PLEASE NOTE: any fires that might get established this afternoon-evening will be subject to a strong northerly wind shift very late tonight into Friday morning. - FRIDAY: Although it will be a moderately-windy day with north winds slicing southward behind a strong cold front (sustained speeds commonly 25-30 MPH/gusts to around 40 MPH), fortunately from a fire weather perspective, it also continues to trend increasingly-cool. In fact, our latest forecast only calls for highs in the 50s across at least the northwestern 2/3rds of our CWA, and mainly 60s at best in southeastern counties. As a result, RH is expected to hold up at least slightly above critical levels...bottoming out no lower than 25-35% most areas. - SATURDAY: Although it will be seasonably-cool with high temps only in the 50s-low 60s, the airmass will be quite a bit drier than Friday...allowing afternoon RH to drop well down to at least 15-20%. As for winds, though not as strong as Friday, they will still be plenty breezy with northwesterly speeds generally sustained 15-25 MPH/gusting 20-35 MPH (overall strongest north of I-80/weakest in northern KS). As a result, most of our forecast area is again expected to meet critical criteria. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday still looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, as although RH is again forecast to bottom out 10-20%, winds should be lighter than the previous few days with even gusts mostly under 20 MPH. Unfortunately though, potentially critical conditions return again for Monday as warmer temperatures return with RH forecast s low as 15-20% in most areas and southerly winds gust at least 25-30 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>076-082>085. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for KSZ005>007-017>019. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ005-006-017. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch  622 FXUS62 KGSP 161017 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 617 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. 2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought conditions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity and breezy conditions are likely to occur each of the next several afternoons through the weekend. Continued low-level southwesterly flow from a weak Bermuda surface ridge will filter through today. Despite the typical moisture return in this regime, deep boundary layer mixing will continue to tap into very dry air aloft, which will cause dewpoints to mix out during peak heating. Combine that with near-record highs this afternoon and RH values will dip between 25-30%, if not lower in some locations. Winds at the top of the boundary layer (<=775mb) will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions (gusts up to 20-25 mph) as well. As a result, at least Increased Fire Danger Statements will be issued for western NC and northeast GA this afternoon and likely again on Friday afternoon. Even if the criteria isn't fully met, low RH values, high heat stress, and very dry vegetation will enhance the risk for wildfire development. Expect this threat to linger into Saturday as well, so daily Fire Danger Statements remain possible through the rest of the week. The Fire Danger Statement for all of western North Carolina was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for northeast Georgia for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting below the critical threshold of 30%. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for all of western NC and northeast Georgia again Friday, as RH values continue to reach near-critical thresholds. Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records in some locations outside of the mountains. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulations will likely be too small to improve drought condi- tions. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected early next week. Broad upper ridging will get pushed off the Atlantic Coast later today and into Fri as an embedded upper shortwave trof approaches. The trof will translate over the Carolinas Fri morning and move offshore Fri evening with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much broader/deeper upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday. A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas this evening, however it continues to weaken/dissipate as it moves thru our CWA early Fri. We'll probably get some sct showers over the NC mtns, mostly along the NC/TN border region, but any precip amounts will likely be minimal (ie, < 0.1 inches). The more robust front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, however the latest model guidance continues to produce little in the way of accumulations outside of the NC mountains. At present, only the NC/TN border region is expected to receive more than about 0.1 inches from this frontal system. Unfortunately, it's still looking like any rainfall that we get from this system will have little impact on the current drought. While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records thru Sat, the humidity will remain lower. Minimum RH values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon thru the weekend, with values below 20% possible on Monday. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area today, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase overall fire danger. Fortunately, temperatures cool to near-normal for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with the passage of the cold front, however the airmass remains dry. Freezing temperatures still appear possible over por- tions of the NC mtns early Monday and frost-producing temperatures remain possible early Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Winds will continue out of the southwest this morning and through the daytime period with additional high clouds. Winds will pick up in speed by the afternoon at 12-18 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts for most TAF sites. KAVL will be tricky due to a cross-valley wind during the day. A weak front will move in from the west by tonight. This may send a stray shower towards KAVL, but an uptick in mid/upper-level clouds will be apparent, mainly overnight tonight. The front will cause the winds to toggle more north to northwest as the front pushes through early Friday. Outlook: VFR prevails the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907 RECORDS FOR 04-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905 RECORDS FOR 04-18 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082- 501>510. SC...None. && $$ CAC/JPT  084 FXUS65 KPSR 161019 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 319 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system passing the region to the north will result in widespread breezy conditions by this afternoon followed by locally windy conditions and elevated fire weather concerns Friday along the Lower Colorado River Valley. - A Wind Advisory will be in effect from early Friday morning into the early afternoon for the Lower Colorado River Valley and portions of Southeast California. - After a brief stint of near and below normal temperatures over the next few days, readings will rebound with widespread afternoon highs in the 90s expected by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Midlevel water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a shortwave trough progressing over the Pacific Northwest with its base now rounding the Great Basin. Meanwhile, a much weaker upper level low off the Northern Baja has formed and begun to draw closer to the forecast area, sending abundant high clouds towards the region. The more potent shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will continue progressing over the intermountain west over the next 24-36 hours, becoming somewhat more amplified as its southern extent brushes Northern AZ. Regional pressure gradients will increase through tonight as a result, leading breezy conditions to materialize over much of the area later today. However, guidance has backed off slightly on the magnitude of gusts this afternoon, perhaps picking up on the influence of the high clouds streaming over the region, which will inhibit better momentum transfer towards the surface during the typical peak mixing timeframe. Thus, expect widespread gusts to between 15-25 mph later today, with locally higher gusts in the areas typically prone to gap winds and mountain rotor activity in Western Imperial County. The strongest winds from this initial shortwave will actually come Friday, particularly along the Lower Colorado River Valley and wind prone areas/prominent terrain features in Southeast CA. As the shortwave progresses E/SE'wrd, it will send a dry front down the Colorado River Valley. Pressure packing behind the front will be the impetus to form a nocturnal LLJ, with NAEFS mean 850 mb winds accelerating upwards of 30 kts over a relatively small area. This is above the 99th percentile of CFSR climatology. Expect windy conditions to materialize, particularly after sunrise, with northerly gusts to 30-45 mph becoming common and locally stronger gusts over ridgelines/terrain features. This will present difficult driving conditions, especially for high profile vehicles along the section of I-10 near and west of Blythe, CA, and some localized channels of blowing dust may be observed. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Friday, valid 3 AM through 1 PM MST/PDT for the affected areas. Temperatures today will be within a few degrees of normal, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s for the typically warmer lower desert locales. However, the abundant high clouds may cause highs to underachieve today. NBM highs Friday are slightly warmer than the past few runs but still 2F-6F cooler than today thanks to the lower heights aloft and passage of a poorly defined cold front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensembles advertise the overall pattern stagnating somewhat for a few days late this weekend into early next week, with upper level ridging building over the West-Central CONUS and another relatively potent upper low diving southward from the Gulf of Alaska and settling off the West Coast. The influence of high pressure over the region will allow temperatures to rebound over the weekend, with lower desert highs once again reaching the 90s and in a decidedly above normal category by Sunday. Something that is becoming more clear in the global model guidance is that a strong surface high will shift from the Intermountain West to the Southern Plains by Sunday, allowing another E/SE'rly gradient wind event to take shape Sunday morning. This will mostly impact Southeastern AZ, but likely extend into South-Central AZ higher terrain east/southeast of Phoenix. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably heading into the middle of the upcoming workweek, when the upper low off the West Coast is expected to move inland over the Great Basin or even over the Desert Southwest. The uncertainty is reflected in the probabilistic NBM temperatures, as IQRs for the forecast highs/lows increase to 5F or greater Tuesday onward. Overall, temperatures should retreat closer to or even slightly below seasonal normals during the middle of next week. Another uncertainty is whether the forcing from the incoming upper low will combine with meager moisture (mostly in the mid levels) to produce light shower activity over portions of AZ. However, the vast majority of global guidance shows the area remaining dry, with PoPs below 10%. From experience, the track of this low is also not promising to produce anything more than light precip totals favoring upslope areas and higher terrain. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No significant weather issues will exist through Thursday night under developing high cirrus cigs. Timing of directional wind shifts should be similar to the past 24 hours, although west winds will be maintained around the Phoenix metro longer into Thursday night than usual. Wind speeds from the mid afternoon through early evening will be stronger than the past several days with occasional gusts 15-20kt across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and occasional breezy conditions will prevail through the next week. Temperatures will cool from near normal today to slightly below normal Friday, then warm above normal over the weekend. A weather system passing the region to the north will send a cold front down the Colorado River Valley and produce gusty winds Friday morning, with gusts to 30-45 mph for portions of Southeast CA and Southwest AZ. Winds will gradually relax heading into the afternoon as humidity drops into the single digits. Elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize for portions of the western deserts Friday as a result, particularly along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Afternoon MinRHs below 15% and at times in the single digits will be common through the next 7 days, with minor day to day variations. Overnight recoveries between 30-50% tonight will drop into 15-30% range Friday and Saturday nights. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM PDT Friday for CAZ560-561-564- 565-568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Whittock LONG TERM...Whittock AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Whittock  388 FXUS61 KBGM 161021 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 621 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Another risk of severe thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon through early evening, though confidence has increased that the threat will be primarily north of the Twin Tiers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this coming afternoon into evening, though this time especially north of the Twin Tiers. Strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain are the primary threats. 2) A dramatic pattern shift will occur over the weekend with a a round of rain and perhaps thunder Saturday evening followed by much colder weather early next week including snow showers for some parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... For the third consecutive day we will have a risk for severe thunderstorms, though this time the focus will be especially north of the Twin Tiers. A subtle shallow boundary left behind by the convection we just had in the evening, will drift right back north during the day to allow well above normal temperatures to be realized again with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will be into the lower 60s at most locations, so it will definitely feel ahead of pace compared to the calendar. Unlike the prior couple of days, there will be more forcing via an incoming upper wave and eventual frontal passage. Modest height falls will occur aloft, as southwesterly warm air advection occurs below. A rather robust and even top-heavy Convective Available Potential Energy profile should set up for the Finger Lakes to Central New York pointing to not just damaging gusts but also potential for large hail; farther south there will be more uncertainty because of convective inhibition/thermal capping holding on even late in the day. The SPC Convective Outlook continues to highlight a good portion of Central NY in the Slight Risk for severe storms. Convective initiation looks to be between 3-5 PM across the Finger Lakes or just to the north. These storms will push eastward quickly, initially in discrete mode, but then potentially becoming more linear with time. As mentioned the primary threats are likely hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled out within storm-scale boundary interactions, and the Mohawk Valley sometimes can cause its own topographical influences. However, shear even for Central New York will be mainly unidirectional since the boundary will lift so far north this afternoon. It was a good thing that most rainfall during the event that just concluded was mostly in the central to southern part of the area, because the northern third remains sensitive. That said, for the coming afternoon-evening, we will still have to keep an eye on potential for isolated localized flooding where it is the most sensitive. Speed of cells though will probably mostly mitigate the threat, and thus is more of a secondary risk. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures continue up to Saturday, but a rainy cold front in the evening will herald an abrupt pattern flip to much cooler weather for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will bump down some on Friday in the wake of the prior batch of thunderstorms, yet still above normal with highs of mid 60s to mid 70s. There could still be a few lingering showers early Friday, otherwise passing high pressure will provide for window of dry weather through at least midday Saturday. An upper trough will dig into the Western Great Lakes Saturday, with deep southwest flow boosting temperatures well into the 70s across the area. This will occur ahead of a very well-marked front trailing from strong Canadian low pressure. A narrow yet significant ribbon of moisture will pool all the way up from the Western Gulf, causing rain and embedded thunder to sweep across our region late Saturday through Saturday night. Abruptly colder weather will be ushered in during the second half of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday will initially range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, yet under strong cold air advection with gusty winds and scattered showers. Temperatures plummet into the mid 20s to near 30 Sunday night, with any lingering rain showers changing to snow showers/flurries. Highs on Monday will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s, and a few lake enhanced snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere across central NY and northeast PA. Drier air settles in Monday night which will be our coldest; 20s areawide. Temperatures recover back into the 50s and 60s going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds from a weak quasi-stationary boundary will continue bringing restrictions to RME through the early afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions areawide through this afternoon, before showers and storms are expected in the evening hours. As another boundary lingers over the area overnight tonight, ceilings will drop to IFR for mainly Central NY counties. Outlook: Thursday evening through Friday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers. Sunday night through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDP AVIATION...KL  744 FXUS63 KILX 161023 CCA AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is currently an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for areas near and west of the Illinois River on Friday where a significant, all-hazards severe weather outbreak looms. - Much cooler temperatures return this weekend, with an attendant frost risk both Saturday night and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid-level shortwave trough is currently situated over east- central Iowa, visible on early morning water vapor imagery. A significant plume of moisture extends from central Arkansas into the lower Great Lakes, coinciding with an area of mostly stratiform rain. Occasional convective activity, indicated by cooling cloud tops and 40 dbz radar echoes, is embedded within this rain shield. This activity is expected to move slowly eastward and exit Illinois shortly after sunrise as the upper trough progresses into north-central Illinois and the low-level jet weakens. Synoptic-scale subsidence and increasing height tendencies will build across central Illinois by midday, effectively ending precipitation chances for most, if not all, of the forecast area. With clouds lifting and breaking behind the departing shortwave, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 70s. While the primary forecast calls for a clear day without further convection, a slight chance of isolated storms exists near and south of Interstate 70 later this afternoon. This is associated with a separate, trailing mid-level shortwave wobbling across the eastern Ozarks and into far southern Illinois. In this area, thermodynamic profiles become more favorable, with steepening mid-level lapse rates boosting MLCAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. However, the potential for widespread, vigorous convective development is limited by fleeting kinematics. As the upper jet core continues its eastward departure, deep layer shear around the time of potential initiation is only forecast to be about 25 kts. Consequently, portions of southern Illinois are outlooked for general thunderstorms today, but not for severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to return Friday. This development is associated with subtle shortwave energy ejecting from the Central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley, occurring ahead of a more potent trough pivoting across the north-central U.S. A highly volatile environment is expected to evolve by Friday afternoon. The advection of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) ahead of a cold front will contribute to increasing mid-level lapse rates and overall buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding the initial storm mode. Several 00z CAMs indicate the potential for isolated supercells to develop well ahead of the cold front, primarily over southeast Iowa and far west-central Illinois late in the afternoon. This activity would be triggered by the subtle shortwave energy and occur near a diffuse dewpoint gradient or pseudo warm front. If such isolated activity develops juxtaposed with an increasing kinematic field (bulk shear of 35 kts), there would be a concern for an isolated, all-hazards supercell risk ahead of the main cold front. If residual capping precludes pre-frontal convection across our area during the late afternoon and early evening hours, then our storm timing and storm mode and storm risks will look a little different. It's important to note that the main area of convective initiation is expected to occur well to our west during the late afternoon along the cold front. But, with the orientation of the deep-shear vectors becoming parallel to the main forcing, supercells that develop on the cold front are anticipated to gradually grow upscale into a linear MCS as they enter our area later in the evening. As the linear MCS moves into west-central Illinois later in the evening, a continued risk for severe weather is anticipated, lasting well into the overnight hours. Residual supercell structures may persist initially, driven by an increasing low- level jet that elongates the low-level hodograph and enhances 0-3 km SRH. However, the consolidating cold pool, amidst strong low-level CAPE and shear, is expected to support a transition to a mature QLCS. This mature QLCS will likely feature embedded bowing segments and mesovortices that maintain a substantial risk for straight-line winds and brief tornadoes as it progresses eastward. A significant cooling trend is forecast to begin by Saturday as the cold front moves through and displaces the warm, moist air mass from the previous week. Temperatures are expected to exhibit a non-diurnal trend, with highs likely occurring earlier in the day. The latest NBM guidance raises concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures anticipated to fall into the 30s Saturday and Sunday nights. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Area of rain will exit the eastern terminals over the next hour or so. There is a low (20-40% chance) that MVFR stratocu will develop near/after daybreak, otherwise conditions will be VFR through the forecast. Southwest winds will remain gusty near 25 kt until late afternoon, then go light as surface ridging builds in. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...25  087 FXUS61 KGYX 161028 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 628 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were needed for this morning's update. A little bit of light rain will continue to linger over portions of Maine for the next couple of hours. Some fog may hang around some locations into the afternoon hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening with southern New Hampshire having the highest chance of seeing a strong to severe storm. The primary threat in the stronger storms will be strong to damaging winds. 2. Above normal temperatures and shower chances continue into Friday, with some uncertainty in extent of shower coverage. 3. A damp and cloudy weekend, with a stronger cold front on Sunday bringing widespread precipitation 4. Crisp and dry conditions to start next week, but the long- range pattern remains unsettled deeper into the week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking along a quasi-stationary boundary pushes a warm front into the area today. A seabreeze will be pushing back at it, but at least some of the area, most likely New Hampshire, will end up in the warm sector. Ridging aloft will help to allow this area to clear out a bit while clouds and showers from convection in the Great Lakes Region roll over the ridge and into northern zones keeping their potential instability development lower. The latest CAMs continue to show a swath of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE across southern New Hampshire and far southwestern Maine. With 500-1000 J/kg inland into the foothills. Mid-level lapse rates look to be lacking, but low level lapse rates do get up to 7-7.5 C/km in southwestern New Hampshire around the time convection is expected to be moving in (around 6 PM). Bulk deep layer shear around 50 knots favors cellular structure and the CAMs are showing this initially as well. This will be the best chance to see hail and/or a brief tornado with 25-30 knots of low layer shear present, but this will be isolated. Storm mode looks to become more multicellular and maybe even linear as the event progresses and this is where the primary threat of damaging wind gusts will be highest. Overall the threat window looks to be about 5PM to 11PM with all hazards possible initially, but quickly progressing to a primary wind threat. Southern New Hampshire will have the greatest chance of seeing strong to severe storms with the rest of the area seeing more run of the mill type thunderstorms as they will weaken moving toward the coast and more northern inland zones are likely to remain cloudier. The bulk of the showers and storms push off the coast with more scattered showers lingering overnight as the upper trough moves through. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper trough moves through the area as a quasi- stationary front finally pushes southward on Friday. There is still some uncertainty between hi-res guidance on how exactly this pans out. Some runs have had the front clearing early which would cause little fanfare as the trough crosses in the afternoon, but recent runs are a little slower to clear it and result in a more widespread area of showers and possibly thunderstorms. There will be time to iron out the details with more runs, but for now a widespread chance of showers seems reasonable. Drier air will follow the front so when ever it does push out we can expect a break in this showery pattern even if it's brief. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The warm sector will be squashed south Friday night and that is likely it for "warm" temperatures for the foreseeable future. On Saturday a 1030 mb high develops near Newfoundland. While cool and moist conditions have been common along the immediate coast all week due to onshore flow and seabreezes, a stronger push of easterly onshore flow on Saturday is expected to result in these conditions extending farther inland. The 25th-75th percentile temperature spread peaks at 10 degrees Fahrenheit for interior zones, but remains below 5 degrees on the immediate coast, suggesting a bit more uncertainty further inland, but local experience shows cold air usually wins in these setups. Measurable precipitation chances look nil on Saturday with a dry layer aloft, but moist low-levels suggest there could be some mist/drizzle near the coast. 25th-75th percentile temperature spread is also on the high side Sunday, indicating timing differences with a strong cold front that is expected to cross the region. Unlike the previous week, dynamics will be on the strong side, owing to a 500 mb jet streak nosing into the region and rather robust height falls aloft. Current NBM mean QPF offers 0.30-0.50", with the higher totals focused near the White Mountains where some upslope enhancement is likely. The 90th percentile is below an inch regionwide, owing to the progressive nature of the front. PWATs surge to over an inch on Sunday which suggests the potential for heavy downpours. Crashing temperatures Sunday afternoon suggest rain may change to snow in the mountains and near the Canadian border. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Cold and crisp to start next week as high pressure crests over the region. Both Monday and Tuesday offer high temperatures near 10 degrees below average, with a hard freeze looking likely Tuesday morning. Long story short, it will feel more like March than April. Generally sunny skies should take the edge off the cold though, thanks to the high sun angle. A rather complex upper-level pattern becomes evident later into next week. An anomalous block develops downstream from Greenland to northern Quebec, effectively forcing this weekend's trough to retrograde west and detach from jet stream flow. It is too early to speculate on details, but deterministic and ensemble guidance is in agreement on troughing returning to the Northeast by mid-to-late week with a rather blocky pattern. Chilly and wet conditions are suggested with such a pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12z Friday...IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and coastal fog start the TAF period and persist through about 15Z. Inland terminals should start to see some improvement to at least MVFR after this, but lower ceilings are likely to persist longer at coastal terminals. Closer to 00Z Friday showers and thunderstorms enter the region which may reintroduce restrictions. Confidence in LEB, MHT, and CON seeing thunderstorms in their vicinity is moderate, with lower confidence elsewhere. Thunderstorms should be exiting the area by 06Z Friday with just lingering showers and likely low clouds and fog. Outlook... Friday: MVFR improving to VFR through the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon, but there is uncertainty in coverage. Friday night: VFR to start, with IFR to LIFR possible late with marine fog pushing inland. Saturday-Saturday night: IFR to LIFR restrictions possible due to marine fog and stratus at the coastal sites, but fog may also occur inland. VFR conditions most likely during the afternoon. Sunday...Widespread restrictions and rain likely. Sunday night: Conditions return to VFR, except MVFR remains possible at HIE. Monday: Mainly VFR with gusty northwest winds. && .MARINE... Generally tranquil conditions are expected to continue on the waters through at least Friday as wind gusts remain 15 knots or less and wave heights remain 3 feet or less. Winds start light from the northeast on Thursday, but will quickly turn onshore as a sea breeze develops. Winds shift back to the northeast Thursday night as and showers and thunderstorms push off the coast. They will stay there through Friday and be a bit breezier as a front crosses the waters. More fog and stratus are likely from early Saturday through Sunday as easterly winds and moisture increase ahead of a cold front that will also bring widespread precipitation on Sunday. SCA conditions are likely with gusty post-frontal winds Sunday night and Monday. High pressure should then allow conditions to fall below SCA levels by Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Baron/Hargrove  806 FXUS62 KCHS 161029 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 629 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections and Key Messages were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown next week. Deep, subtropical ridging will maintain its influence on the region through Saturday. The ridge will begin to erode Friday and especially into the weekend as series of shortwaves ejecting out of the Central and Northern Plains propagate atop the ridge. Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will move little through Saturday keeping much of the Southeast U.S. positioned along its western flank. Unfortunately, setup will keep dry and warm conditions in place with little prospects of any drought relief. A cold front is poised to push south through the area Sunday as a much stronger shortwave digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Moisture return head of the front looks meager at best and with model cross sections showing the main corridor of strongest DPVA passing by well to the north, the prospects for measurable rainfall looks pretty dim across the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. The 16/01z NBM does highlight 20% pops for the Lowcountry Sunday afternoon/evening, but given the lack of forcing and moisture, these are likely overdone and were lowered to less than 20%. Temperatures through Saturday will remain well above normal for mid-April with record highs likely being challenged both Friday and Saturday afternoons as the flow aloft becomes more west-northwest and 850 hPa temperatures peak in the 16-18C range. The 16/01z NBM deterministic highs are at the very low-end, if not outside of the interquartile range (IQR) for most locations, so some warmer guidance was blended into nudge highs up slightly. See the climate section below record information. A brief cooldown will occur early next week as a wedge of high pressure builds in from the north and gradually shifts offshore into the Atlantic. Breezy conditions are are likely at the beaches Sunday night into Monday morning where gusty north to northeast winds will occur in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 16/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/12z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Elevated wind gusts are possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions will persist into Saturday with the region remaining along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Sea breeze enhancements along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor are likely each afternoon/evening with the intensify of the sea breeze surge likely to wane Friday and Saturday afternoons given a west/northwest flow aloft. A strong cold front is poised to push through the waters Sunday afternoon with winds quickly ramping up Sunday night into Monday morning in response to post-frontal cold air advection and a rapid tightening of the pressure gradient. North to northeast winds of 20-30 kt are likely with gusts approaching gale force, especially over the 20-60 NM offshore zones. Seas look to peak Monday, ranging from 4-6 ft nearshore waters to 7-10 ft over the offshore waters (highest offshore Georgia waters). Small Craft Advisories are likely and a Gale Watch/Warning could be needed over the offshore zones. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday due to the combination of 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds, modest onshore flow, and increasing astronomical influences associated with lunar perigee/new moon. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely persist this weekend and especially early next week as a pinched gradient associated with a passing cold front supports a gusty northeast wind event along the Southeast Coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 16: KSAV: 92/1967 April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967 April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  105 FXUS62 KRAH 161031 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 630 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 255 AM Thursday... * Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 255 AM Thursday... 1) Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. 2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... As of 255 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph. The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit today. Strong heating with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected. This will aid the mixing process by late morning with SW winds expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph by noon, then 15 to 25 mph this afternoon through 600 PM. Peak gusts up to 30-32 mph are expected. Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly. Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty light. Fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend into next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday. See records below. Strong ridging will persist overhead with only a brief brush with mid/upper troughing expected to pass mainly north of our region Thursday night through Friday morning, moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday afternoon. A period of mostly mid and high clouds is expected during that period since the trough will be moisture starved and brushing by during the late night and morning hours. The temperatures may be a degree or two cooler on Friday - but the downslope WNW flow in the afternoon with clearing skies should really offset that. Expect highs Friday and Saturday similar to the highs today. Fortunately, it is still April and the humidity looks tolerable if not comfortable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the 50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the Piedmont. So heat indices will be about 3-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back near normal. KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning through afternoon. Models are still showing an earlier frontal passage, with 3 of 4 LREF ensemble clusters showing the front pass through the region Sunday morning. If the front does move through later in the afternoon, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in the east. Instability will be weak, meaning that any severe weather is not expected. Additionally, overall light rain is expected with any showers that develop, with the mean of each of the 4 clusters of the LREF showing less than 0.25 inch of rain by Sunday night. Deterministic models are also showing much of central NC with less than 0.1 inch of rain from the frontal passage. Thus, little relief from drought conditions are expected. The front will drop temperatures back near normal, even reaching below normal at times. Sunday will start the cool down with the frontal passage, with lows dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. Lows will drop further Monday night as high pressure builds into or just north of the region. If the high settles over the region, temperatures could be even cooler, leading to areas of patchy frost, especially north. Highs on Monday look to drop into generally the mid 60s to around 70s, with temperatures then increasing each day Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... As of 630 AM Thursday... Generally VFR conditions will continue through 12z/Friday. It will be breezy between late morning through the afternoon today from the SW at 15-25 knots. Winds will be mostly 10 knots or less during the overnight through mid-morning hours. A trough will approach from the west tonight and move by the region on Friday. There will be mostly some mid and high level clouds and possibly a brief shower Friday. Outlook: There is a chance of some light rain behind a cold front Sunday. There is a small chance of MVFR cigs Sunday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected into next week. && .CLIMATE... All-Time Records for April: KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930 Record High Temperatures: April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006 April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LH/Badgett AVIATION...Badgett/MWS CLIMATE...rah  818 FXUS62 KFFC 161031 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 631 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across portions of north and central GA. Fire weather concerns will persist through the end of the week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid and upper level ridge continues to extend from the central Gulf into the west Atlantic, with an elongated surface high positioned underneath. This pattern will maintain its grip over north and central Georgia through the end of the week, although it will shift slightly to the southeast today. The morning will begin with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. High temperatures this afternoon will range from 10-15 degrees above daily normals, rising into the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s also forecast in east- central Georgia. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving through the Tennessee Valley. With strong diurnal mixing expected, dewpoints have been lowered by blending in 10th percentile NBM, MAV/MET, and latest HRRR solution. With relative humidity values below 30% across much of east Georgia and portions of west Georgia and very dry vegetation, another Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 8 PM this evening. With the ridge stretching more to the east, some isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25%) may spread into the far northern tier this afternoon and tonight. With deep layer bulk shear values between 35-45 kts ahead of the front, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Any stronger storm that develops could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Aside from a stronger storm, rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25 inch across the far northern tier and have little impact on ongoing drought conditions. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, dissipating before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Friday, with high temperatures expected to be between 12-18 degrees above normals, rising into the upper 80s and low 90s. Some locations, including the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), could see the highs approach daily records. With little change to the airmass on rain chances less than 5% during the daytime Friday, hazardous fire weather conditions are expected in the afternoon once again. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Weekend Cold Front and Rain for Some: Ensemble guidance aligns on the passage of a stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. An associated expansive low pressure system will drive moisture advection across the southern U.S. along the cold front as it pushes eastward. The result will be showers and potentially thunderstorms across at least parts of north and central Georgia Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Strong mid-/upper-level winds should not be hard to come by given the base of the trough swinging through aloft, but given such a dry airmass in place beforehand, instability/buoyancy will be lacking. Thus, severe weather is not expected. The big question many folks are probably asking is how much rainfall is expected? Unfortunately, rainfall is likely to remain around 0.25 inches or less. While any rainfall at all is much welcomed, no drought improvements will come from such measly totals. The cold front passage will be noticeable on Sunday, with high temperatures potentially some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were on Saturday. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s to lower 40s across parts of the area. Widespread lows in the 40s are currently forecast for early Tuesday morning. Still Very Dry Overall through Early Next Week: Even amid the weekend rain chances, fire weather conditions will continue to bear watching. Areas that do not see rainfall on Sunday may reach the relative humidity criterion for a Fire Danger Statement when coupled with still-dry vegetation. The post-front environment on Monday and Tuesday looks to bring a very dry airmass with relative humidity currently progged to be in the teens-to-20 percent range -- plenty dry enough for continued issuances of fire weather products. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the day, with only passing upper level clouds. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible across far north GA in the late afternoon and tonight ahead of a front, but are unlikely to make it as far south as ATL. FEW-SCT clouds as low as 060 are anticipated overnight. Winds will begin the morning from SW at 5 kts increasing to 5-9 kts after 15Z and through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less after 01Z, becoming light and variable at times during the overnight hours. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 56 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 87 60 89 61 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 88 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 60 90 62 / 10 10 0 0 Peachtree City 87 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 92 62 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King  280 FXUS64 KLZK 161032 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 532 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 -Isolated strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon -Near record temps Friday -Rain and t'storm chances along cold front Friday evening into Saturday -Critical Min RHs statewide Sunday and Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A decaying line of thunderstorms is pushing an outflow bounty across Central AR early Thursday morning. Behind it rainfall rates continue to weaken and will eventually dissipate by sunrise. A few light lingering showers are possible but much QPF with these should not be expected. Thursday afternoon highs will recover well behind this system, widespread upper 70s to mid 80s are expected. A very subtle H500 shortwave over Central MO in phase with the peak diurnal heating will fuel a few t'storms over NE AR. The peak buoyancy, right around 3000J/kg of SBCAPE, and peak shear, between 50 and 60kts bulk shear, are mostly offset on other sides of I-40 respectively mid-afternoon. This will keep the overall severe risk lower this afternoon. Any storm that can fire near the boundary and bridge the gap between the better shear and better CAPE would likely become dominate but the rather weak and offset forcing will keep this risk low. Rain chances will end just after sunset. Friday well above average temps will build in with a ridge moving quickly across the region. Mid to upper 80s are expected across Central and East AR, some locations could reach into the 90s. This heat will quickly be pushed out as the trough that has sparked several days of active weather finally ejects through and drags a cold front across our FA after sunset Friday night. Rain chances will begin to increase in NW AR around midnight Sat and push into the rest of the state throughout the day Sat. As these storms approach on Friday evening they will yet again be weakening as they enter our area. Rain chances will be scattered across much of the state during the day Saturday before an uptick in coverage along the front begins to happen around sunset in SE AR. Most locations in the state will be lucky to get a half of an inch in rain, the most likely areas to exceed that mark Sat into Sun will be in the NW and SE corners of the state. Behind to cldfrnt Sunday very dry air will spread across the state. Min RH values nearing the 20th percentile will be likely across a good portion of the state Sun afternoon. Winds will be light out of the NNE after the front and rainfall from early in the week will keep the area wide fire risk lower, but locations that dodge the majority of the rainfall this week could dry out by mid afternoon and have an elevated fire risk Sun. Mon will be slightly less dry but Min RH values are still expected to be at or below 30th percentile across much of the state. Winds will shift to out of the S as a ridge deepens across the middle of the county through the midweek. This will allow for moisture to slowly return and Min RHs will recover above critical thresholds by Tues. As the ridge builds temps will climb from normal early week back to above normal mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Some convection continues this morning...then there will be a break later this morning in the precip activity. By later this afternoon...additional convection may develop over central to NRN/NERN sections. Expect this activity to become less probable by this evening and overnight. Outside of this convection...there could be some small windows of MVFR conditions...especially this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 65 87 61 / 80 20 20 50 Camden AR 85 64 90 63 / 40 10 0 20 Harrison AR 80 63 84 50 / 40 10 30 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 88 60 / 50 20 10 40 Little Rock AR 82 65 89 63 / 70 20 10 30 Monticello AR 85 66 89 66 / 30 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 81 63 85 57 / 40 20 10 50 Mountain Home AR 80 62 87 54 / 50 10 30 70 Newport AR 82 64 89 61 / 80 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 83 64 90 64 / 60 10 0 20 Russellville AR 82 63 88 59 / 60 20 10 50 Searcy AR 81 62 89 61 / 80 20 10 30 Stuttgart AR 82 66 89 64 / 80 10 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...78 AVIATION...62  127 FXUS66 KSEW 161035 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 335 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers continue across portions of Western Washington this morning. Cool and increasingly dry conditions then develop later today through Friday. The next upper low moves down from the Gulf of Alaska offshore this weekend, with an associated front reaching the region late Saturday or Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer with a return of rain chances, especially west of Puget Sound, by Sunday into the start of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level/surface shortwave will continue to push off towards the Rockies today. A jet max on the back side of the trough will increase the north flow into the region today and Friday, which will be followed by a ridge building over the region. A couple areas of showers continue early this morning behind the trough. One area is concentrated in the central/southern Cascades, with the air cold enough still for additional light amounts of snow this morning. Note that the winter storm warning expired last night at 11 PM, and additional snow that falls in these parts of the Cascades are not expected to produce any additional travel impacts. More showers are moving through the Puget Sound/central interior this morning. The thunder threat concluded yesterday evening, and this morning's precipitation is expected to wrap up late this morning/afternoon. With the pattern remaining dry the latter part of today through Saturday, the main concern transitions to the cooler temperatures from the influx of cooler Canadian air. Quite a few areas have already cooled off overnight with temperatures this morning in the low to mid 30s. The coldest lowland area is the Chehalis Valley/south interior, where there remains a high likelihood of temperatures falling below freezing by dawn (as cold as the upper 20s). Remaining areas of some of the south Cascade Foothills, Kitsap, Olympic and Pacific Coasts remain on track to see temperatures in the mid 30s this morning. The frost advisory was expanded this morning to include the southern Cascade Foothills (including Maple Valley down to Eatonville). For areas not in the frost advisory, the shower activity has kept clouds low enough that morning temperatures will only drop into the mid/upper 30s. These areas will have a better chance of seeing either low clouds or fog this morning. Morning lows will also be cool enough for frost in a few south sound locations Friday morning. Thursday and Friday will see a mix of clouds and sun during the day. Highs will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s, with a few areas seeing mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally be around 5 mph or less during this period. HPR && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble guidance continues to bring the next low pressure system south from the Gulf of Alaska offshore past the region this weekend. There remains a significant spread in the eastward extent of the associated front across the region, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall this weekend. That said, it's likely that most of the interior near and east of Puget Sound remains dry much of the weekend and some additional cloud cover may be the most prominent impact for most. Rain chances are highest across the Olympic Peninsula and coastline. Temperatures likely remain rather mild Sunday and Monday with daytime highs in the 60s, snow levels returning well above the Cascade passes, and little in the way of impactful weather. Confidence decreases in the specifics of the forecast toward the middle of next week with larger differences emerging in ensemble guidance with respect to the evolution of the upper low as it shifts inland through the western U.S. 12 && .AVIATION... A trough will continue to advance to the east today with increasing northerly flow aloft behind the trough. A couple areas of showers remain in the south Cascades, and the north Puget Sound. These showers were tracking southward this morning. Ceilings are generally MVFR with a few pockets of IFR. The post-trough convergence area has been the primary reason for ceiling drops into IFR, but the probabilities decrease going through the morning. There's a low chance some of these IFR cigs could drop down to the surface for fog (this concerns the Puget Sound terminals and areas to the north with). VFR conditions are expected later this morning into the afternoon regionwide as most cloud coverage clears. There is a medium chance for low-end VFR/MVFR redevelopment tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds today will remain out of the southwest at around 4-8 kt (becoming northwest at the coast later today). KSEA...Few showers to the north and vicinity of the terminal this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings at times through late this morning. Conditions become VFR this afternoon. Winds remain out of the southwest 4-8 kt. There is a medium chance of MVFR Friday morning. Conditions remain dry at the terminal. HPR && .MARINE... Weak high pressure over the waters during the next few days, with winds generally easing in this pattern. Seas remain around 10-12 ft over the coastal waters and will begin to gradually decay through the day today. Meanwhile, we're entering a period of very strong ebb currents on the Grays Harbor bar the next few days. So while seas will be subsiding, conditions may remain rough around the ebbs the next few mornings. A weak westerly push will bring a diurnally driven increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but expect winds to generally remain below advisory speeds (70% chance). The next low pressure system drops south beyond the outer coastal waters, with increasing southerly winds over the coastal waters Saturday. Some uncertainty with the evolution of this system and ensemble guidance favors it remaining far enough offshore to limit winds increasing much above low-end advisory gusts over the coastal zones. However, expect seas to again build into the 6 to 8 ft range (especially over the outer coastal waters) and expect rather choppy conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... River flooding is not expected through the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Northern Hood Canal-Port Townsend Area. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. && $$  835 FXUS61 KAKQ 161037 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 637 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No major forecast changes. Another Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 11 AM-8 PM today for much of central/eastern Virginia and Northampton County, NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...3 KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure now centered off the SE CONUS coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the eastern Gulf coast to the Carolinas. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime today. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for another day of record to near record high temperatures. Today will be quite similar to yesterday, though with a bit more wind. SW winds will gust to 20-25 mph across much of the area from late morning-afternoon. Widespread lower 90s are expected, with temps a couple degrees cooler on the eastern shore (though it will still be warm here with the stronger SSW wind). Additional records may be tied or broken today (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18). KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry and NCFS yesterday (Wednesday), another Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 11 AM-8 PM from the VA Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. Today's SPS also includes all of the Peninsula and Suffolk given the slightly stronger SW wind. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC. The IFD statement roughly covers areas where 20-25 mph gusts are co-located with forecast min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little precip is expected and min RH values will be around 30% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Wind and RH values will once again be around critical thresholds on Saturday west of the bay (min RH of 25-30% and gusts to perhaps 15- 20 mph). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday, the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly. Not a whole lot of change in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The CAMs have little to no precip with the shortwave, though some of the global models (especially the ECMWF) show the potential for localized totals of ~0.10". Not really buying this solution given our drought status and the poor moisture return. Also, the ECMWF forecast dew pts are several degrees above consensus and it therefore has 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Regardless, will keep low PoPs for much of the area. Still think most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to likely (60-70%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. With the front crossing the area during the day, afternoon temps likely drop into the 60s (or even 50s depending on if/where it rains). This could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain continue to increase slightly (60- 80% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. While ensemble means show 0.10-0.20" of rain across much of the area on Sunday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Frost is possible well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 12z/16 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period, though CIGs lower to 10-12kft AGL late tonight at RIC/SBY ahead of an approaching shortwave. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts of 20-25 kt lasting through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds diminish to ~10 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week with a brief surge in winds tonight into early Friday AM. - Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead and behind a strong cold front. Morning weather analysis shows high pressure remaing locked in placed off the Southeast coast. This is allowing winds to remain steady out of the SW between 10 to 15kt. Waves are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft with some occasional 4 ft seas south of the VA/NC border. Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail today through Saturday. Model guidance continues to hint on a stronger SW surge this evening into early Friday AM, with winds around 15 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt over the ocean. There is the potential that a few gusts may reach SCA criteria during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. However, given the extremely marginal winds and seas, no headlines have been issued during this forecast update. Confidence in SCA conditions increase Sunday into Monday as a much stronger cold front moves over the area. Stronger SW flow will increase ahead of the cold front Sunday. Ahead of this front there is the potential for some shower/storms. Then as the front moves through the winds will switch out of the NW. Recent guidance in the models continue to show decent CAA behind the front. There could be the potential with a brief period of 34kt gusts. Local wind probs have increased between 20-30% of gusts greater than 34kt gusts across the southern coastal waters. If these gusts do occur they will occur with the initial surge and passage of the cold front. These elevated marine conditions will quickly lower late Monday as the pressure gradient decreases. && .CLIMATE... New record highs were set yesterday, 4/15 for Richmond (93), Norfolk (91), and Salisbury (89). Record High Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/16 - 4/18 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096- 509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...HET CLIMATE...AJB  255 FXUS61 KCTP 161038 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 638 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Additional details on potential convection today and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) MRGL severe threat across the NW this afternoon and evening. 2) Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early evening may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into today, although Friday and Saturday remain above normal. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and a break from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: MRGL severe threat across the NW this afternoon and evening. A midlevel shortwave trough will move out of the Midwest this afternoon toward Lake Erie by this evening. Although this will result in height falls locally, the upper level jet streak associated with the trough will weaken with time. All things considered, subtle large scale ascent collocated with 250-750 J/kg of CAPE and little to no CIN should result in a line of convection late this afternoon into this evening approaching the Laurel Highlands up through the northwest mountains. One of the limiting factors for severe potential is midlevel lapse rates that are not very steep. Nonetheless, DCAPE of 400-500 J/kg and storm motions 35-40 kts with little CIN warrants at least a MRGL risk for severe wind gusts. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early evening may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, temps again will rise into the 80s. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels and wind speeds are not critical enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a Special Weather Statement. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into today, although Friday and Saturday remain above normal. Very warm conditions again for today, with morning lows starting out at or near records. A mild start plus increasing sunshine will result in highs again pushing through the 80s across much of central PA. The trough coming through tonight and a weak cold front on Friday will knock temps down 5-10 degrees between today and tomorrow, but they will still be well above normal. A few degrees warmer Saturday as southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and a break from summer heat late this weekend. The next round of showers and storms will come along and ahead of a cold front Sat - Sat night. SPC has introduced a SLGT severe weather outlook for eastern OH and western PA Sat, with the MRGL risk area clipping our western zones. A significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air beginning Sat night. In fact, there could even be some snow showers on Sunday. Monday night likely holds a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down below 32F, and as cold as 20 in the northern tier. Temps rebound Tue afternoon and remain mild into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers across northwest PA may make a close approach to BFD this morning, but mainly dry conditions are expected for most of Central Pennsylvania into the early afternoon. Patchy fog will continue to cause periods of IFR/LIFR restrictions at BFD and IPT before dissipating by 14Z. VFR conditions are then expected for the rest of the day under varying amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible. Similar to the past few days, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening over western PA. BFD, JST, UNV, and IPT will once again be most likely to see any thunderstorms. There is a stronger signal in model guidance for low clouds to develop Thursday night over northern and western PA than there has been the past few nights. Ceilings likely drop to MVFR at BFD and JST after 03Z with further reduction to IFR expected. AOO, UNV, and IPT may also see MVFR ceilings develop. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... MDT and IPT both had high temps of 87F on Wed Apr 15, which ties the record at MDT (set in 1941) and breaks the record of 86 at IPT (set in 1994). IPT also broke the Apr 15 record for warmest daily low temp, where 58F broke the record of 57F set in 2023. Record high daily mins are possible again today and tomorrow. Here's a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Colbert  994 FXUS63 KARX 161038 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 538 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The risk for severe storms across the region is increasing for Friday afternoon with all hazards possible. The main uncertainty in the forecast revolves around when the storms form, which will dictate what areas see a certain threat. Continue monitoring forecast for further details. - Near to below freezing overnight low temperatures through the weekend. A few snow flurries cannot be ruled out on Saturday, mainly along and northeast of I-94. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry Today: A reprieve in storm chances today from passing anticyclonic flow ushering in a drier airmass will feel less humid compared to previous days with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. The break in precipitation also allows over saturated soils to recover some from heavy, high rainfall amounts over the last few days. Fire weather concerns expected to remain northwest of the local forecast area into central Minnesota. Severe Storms Likely Friday: A stout longwave upper level trough seen progressing east over the Pacific Northwest on GOES water vapor loops excites low level moisture transport through the Central to Northern Plains Thursday, progressing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley Friday. Accompanying instability of 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE seen in low and high resolution models builds through the forecast area before eventual fropa Friday night. While LREF dProg/dt remains mostly consistent, a slightly more phased solution to the low has increased intraensemble agreement for a deeper low pressure center slightly farther north from west-central into northern Wisconsin. The concurrent steep mid level lapse rates (GFS 15.18Z) of 9.5C+/km raise initial supercell concerns through Friday afternoon as a meso low phases/occludes along our western/northern periphery. Therefore, model derived significant severe parameters illuminate initial stronger severe threats during supercellular storm mode Friday afternoon through some of the forecast area before fropa causes linear storm mode to progress from northwest to southeast through the evening into the nighttime hours. All storm modes remain possible with highest potentially strong tornado threat during the afternoon should surface based supercells form along a lifting boundary. Tornadoes within linear storm mode later through Friday remain possible albeit potentially not as strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with all storm modes. Winter Resemblant Weekend Expected: A colder airmass settles in through the weekend, ushering in winter precipitation chances Saturday into Saturday night. Deepening on growing season, confidence in near to below freezing overnight low surface temperatures may require subsequent Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning issuance Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Unfortunately, low (<15%) LREF joint probabilities for shear and CAPE graze the local forecast area again by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A narrow band of IFR to LIFR fog and low stratus east of a CCY to MDZ line steadily clears by mid-morning with VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period. Light northwest winds this morning back to the south and increase through the late afternoon and overnight, gusting to 15-25 kts west of the Mississippi River by sunrise Friday. Lower elevation TAF sites may see LLWS for a time tonight, but this appears to be marginal at this time and will be monitored through the day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Dry conditions today provide a temporary reprieve for saturated soils and localized flooding. Crests for ongoing rivers in flood across Wisconsin will work downstream into early next week. Unfortunately, heavy rain potential increases Friday afternoon as a line of storms progresses from west to east. The heaviest rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely to fall in narrow corridors, but will be dependent on how quickly storms grow into a line versus remaining isolated. The highest confidence in higher rain amounts will be east of the Mississippi where rivers will still be in flood. Continue monitoring upcoming forecasts for the location of highest QPF amounts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Skow HYDROLOGY...Skow  005 FXUS62 KCAE 161038 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 638 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. Little change in the overall forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. Little change in the thinking through the end of the week with a prolonged stretch of dry weather and well above- normal temperatures expected as a prominent upper level ridge and subtropical surface high remain in control through Saturday. Little day-to- day change is anticipated, with temperatures consistently rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. These values would be on the order of 10-15 degrees or more above climatological normal. Several daily records may be approached or tied, particularly on Friday and Saturday when highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. While guidance has steadily trended a couple of degrees cooler as this forecast has unfolded, temps on Wednesday were several degrees above guidance, so depending on how this trend plays out, the April monthly record of 96 F at CAE and AGS could be in play on Friday and especially Saturday. Key Message 2: A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. An upper trough over the central CONUS is expected to push eastward through the weekend, breaking down the upper ridge that has been parked over the area. This trough is also forecast to push a cold front toward and through the forecast area as well. Rain chances Sunday continue to look fairly limited given the lack of moisture convergence along the front and weak synoptic forcing aloft. A few showers are still possible, but any precip looks light with even the most aggressive solutions showing less 0.25"; the ECE and NAEFS members continue with only ~15% chance of over 0.1" for the area. The more notable impact looks to be increased fire danger once again, especially after the front passes. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range over the weekend and slightly lower on Monday. In addition to the near critical to critical RH values this weekend, breezy southwest winds on Saturday switch to west to northwest for Sunday as gusts reach 20-30 mph at times to end the weekend. Wind gusts diminish some for Monday as the front pushes further east of the area. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, as confidence continues to increase that cooler than average temps move into the forecast area to begin the work week. The current blended guidance shows an 80% or greater chance of highs topping out below average on Monday before a gradual warmup into to the middle part of the week. With the stretch of relatively warm temps, these temps might feel on the cool side. Continuing dry conditions, even with some rainfall possible Sunday, means drought conditions will worsen through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected to persist. The region continues to be under the influence of the western Atlantic ridge with only a few passing higher clouds. Light winds through sunrise should increase by mid morning from the southwest with daytime mixing and winds around 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots expected through the afternoon. Winds will then diminish again with sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23  977 FXUS61 KALY 161038 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 638 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added enhanced wording late this afternoon into this evening when there is the highest potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. This matches where the Storm Prediction Center has maintained its Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Then, lowered temperatures for Sunday given period of rain through the first half of the day followed by cold air advection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) and marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening mainly for areas near and north of I-90. Damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning are the primary hazards from any severe storms. 2. After a stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, temperatures trend below normal Sunday and Monday. Impactful weather is unlikely through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... While showers and thunderstorms tracked through eastern NY and western New England overnight, an amplifying shortwave trough in the Great Lakes will allow the quasi-stationary boundary that has been overhead the past few days to finally lift north of our region today. This will allow the warm sector to surge northward and lead to one final day of unseasonably warm temperatures. There is at least a 50% chance that areas near and south of I-90 will exceed 80 degrees this afternoon with at least a 75% chance for areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and lower elevations in Litchfield County to exceed 85 degrees. This is about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for mid- April. Our climate section shows record highs for April 16 with POU the only site that may near its daily record today. Otherwise, subsidence due to the building ridge centered well to our south will keep our region mainly dry through mid-afternoon. There is increasing consensus among the guidance that the shortwave trough approaching from the Great Lakes will result in height falls late this afternoon into this evening with its associated sfc low and attendant cold also tracking eastward. Forecast soundings show an elevated mixed layer tracking into areas mainly from I-90 northward today with the inversion eroding this afternoon in response to the approaching height falls. This combined with a very warm and moist boundary layer will generate sufficient surface based instability with guidance showing 1000 - 1500 J/kg developing. As we remain within the northern periphery of broad ridging aloft, fast flow aloft will also maintain impressive deep layer and effective shear ranging 40 to 50kt. The rather unidirectional shear through the column and fast flow will likely also lead to straight lined hodographs. While most of the day will remain dry, both the NAM and RAP suggest that increasing height falls and decreasing showalter index values late this afternoon towards or shortly after 21 UTC will allow convection to initiate around a potential subtle pre-frontal trough draped near I-90. However, the HRRR maintains mainly dry conditions through 00 UTC so there remains uncertainty if convective initiation be late this afternoon or hold until this evening. Should convection start late this afternoon, weak forcing combined with shear vectors oriented slightly perpendicular to the weak boundary should support a storm cluster storm mode. Although overall instability values are not overly impressive, forecast soundings show the remnant EML and high equilibrium levels likely allows instability to extend deep through the column with DCAPE values rather high near or greater than 500 J/kg. While damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms, the straight lined hodographs also indicate an environment supportive of sustained strong updrafts capable of large hail, frequent lightning, and splitting cells. As the main sfc cold front and stronger height falls arrive this evening, the storm mode should transition to a more linear structure with damaging winds becoming the primary hazard from any severe storms. This all matches well with the Slight Risk (level 2 to 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 to 5) in SPC's Day 1 Convective Outlook focused near/north of I-90 where the stronger forcing aligns. The severe weather threat should diminish by 03 - 06 UTC as shortwave trough moves overhead and the instability finally diminishes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures trend lower Friday and Saturday yet remain seasonably warm. A notable change to the weather pattern then ensues Saturday night into Sunday as a potent cold front marches eastward resulting in a period of widespread stratiform rain. With northwest winds in the wake of the front advecting much cooler air eastward on Sunday, temperatures will drop 20 to 25 degrees compared to the previous few days and remind us it is still only spring. In fact, rain showers may mix with snow in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks before ending on Sunday. Continued cold air advection Sunday night into Monday morning also looks to favor upslope snow showers in the Taconics, southern Greens, parts of the Berkshires, northern Catskills and western Adirondacks where there is a 20 to 30% chance for at least 1 inch of snow. However, given the time of year and higher elevation location, travel impacts are unlikely. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some patches of low clouds and fog have developed over the last hour or so due to low level moisture from rainfall overnight. There may be some brief IFR/LIFR at KALB and KGFL over the next hour or so, but these low clouds and areas of fog will dissipate quickly for this morning, allowing for VFR conditions to return. During the day today, flying conditions look VFR for most of the day. Sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft will be in place with west to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts. As a storm system approaches, some scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening, mainly between 00z and 04z. Within any thunderstorm, brief heavy rainfall may allow for IFR visibility and gusty winds over 30 kts are possible. This activity could impact KGFL, KPSF and KALB, so will include a PROB30 for these sites, but will not mention for KPOU, as activity looks north of there. Behind the thunderstorm activity, flying conditions should go back to VFR with sct-bkn cigs around 5 kft. Winds will become lighter from a westerly direction for the overnight hours. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...RA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...27 CLIMATE...07  031 FXUS65 KVEF 161038 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 338 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty southwest winds pick up across the region today, becoming north tonight and Friday. * Ridging returns over the weekend before another weather system brings unsettled weather to the region next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. Gusty winds pick up across the region today as a closed area of low pressure digs southward through the Great Basin. Pre-frontal winds will favor the south-southwest with gust speeds generally between 30 and 40 mph, with stronger speeds in the higher terrain. The cold front will push southward through the region as the day progresses, with gusty north winds behind it, which will remain elevated tonight into Friday morning with gust speeds generally between 35 and 45 mph. The strongest post-frontal winds will exist along the Colorado River Valley late tonight / early Friday morning as topographic enhancement will allow for north gusts to 50 mph, with isolated-to- occasional gusts to 60 mph near Laughlin, Bullhead City, and Katherine Landing (50-60% chance). Wind Advisories go into effect this morning at 11 AM for the entire forecast area. Along with this cold front will be a drop in temperatures between 10 and 14 degrees from this afternoon to Friday afternoon. Precipitation will remain mostly north of our forecast area, but there is a 15-25% chance of light rain/snow in northern Lincoln County tonight. Ridging returns to the region over the weekend, which will allow temperatures to rebound back above seasonal normals. Another weather system will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska and toward the western coast early-to-mid week. There remain substantial uncertainties regarding timing, strength, and location of this next system, but gusty winds, chances of precipitation, and cooler temperatures return. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain elevated through tonight, with sustained speeds of 8 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the southwest tomorrow morning, with gusts to around 30 knots by the afternoon. A brief period of reduced winds is possible after sunset Thursday evening before a shift to the northwest occurs between 04Z and 07Z, with a few gusts to 35 knots possible with the frontal passage. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of Thursday night. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with SCT to at times BKN skies. Bases are expected to remain above 10kft AGL, with any CIGs above 15kft AGL Thursday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds generally weaken areawide tonight aside from elevated westerly winds at KDAG. Westerly to southwesterly wind will increase for most locations again after sunrise with peak gusts reaching 25 to 35 knots by the afternoon. Northerly to northwesterly winds are expected throughout the TAF period at KBIH, gradually strengthening in the afternoon and evening. A northerly wind shift should occur in the Las Vegas Valley between 04 and 07Z as a front moves through, bringing a few gusts up to 35 knots. Occasional high clouds are possible at times, but VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  252 FXUS63 KDTX 161039 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch: A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening. Several regional rivers are expected to reach or exceed flood stage. - Severe Potential: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today, capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts and hail. - Friday/Saturday Transition: Dry conditions on Friday will give way to rain and a chance of thunderstorms late Friday night through the first half of Saturday as a strong cold front moves through. - Weekend Cold Snap: Breezy and much colder Sunday with high temperatures stuck in the mid-to-upper 40s. A few snowflakes are possible. Temperatures dropping into the 20s for Sunday night. && .AVIATION... After a brief break overnight, showers have started moving back in this morning. There are a pair of mid level systems that will lift through the area as the resident airmass remains primed to produce showers and storms for one more day. Strongest storms will be possible this afternoon into the evening, but there could be clusters of embedded thunderstorms through most of the day. Timed out a couple periods of higher confidence with prob30 groups. Later this evening, the stall front finally makes its way southeast through the area allowing for drier weather. Guidance then suggests as skies clear out and northern winds usher cooler air into the area, that fog will develop. Obs on the north side of the front do support this so included IFR fog in the tafs for mainly after 06Z for now but there is potential for LIFR. DTW/D21 Convection... Current shower activity lifting northeast into the area has been weak so will leave thunder out for the first batch of precipitation. Another period of thunderstorm potential remains worthy of a PROB30 for the afternoon which could offer isolated strong to severe storms. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 ft this afternoon. Low tonight. * Low for thunderstorms this morning. Low to medium this afternoon. * Low for ceilings below 200ft or visibilities below 1/2SM late tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 DISCUSSION... A moist airmass remains in place with surface dew points predominantly in the lower 60s. The primary moisture axis, characterized by a Theta-E ridge and Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches, will slide east into the Eastern Great Lakes this morning as the leading Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) passes through. A shortwave and its associated surface low moving out of Iowa will track through central Lower Michigan today. This setup will support showers driven by deformation and low-level convergence near the surface low. Mid-level wind fields remain strong, with 45 to 55 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear noted over Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Surface CAPE is projected to reach 500 to 1000 J/kg with daytime heating; however, if showers are less prevalent and partial sunshine develops, instability could exceed these values. Consequently, an isolated severe threat is warranted, with marginal wind and hail being the primary concerns. With the surface low positioned over the northern half of the area this afternoon, there may be sufficient 0-1 km bulk shear (~20 knots) to support a tornado threat if instability increases beyond expectations, but chances look less than 2 percent. The Flood Watch continues, as storms will be efficient rain producers. With PW values remaining around 1.0 inch and soil already saturated, it will not take much additional rainfall to cause flooding issues. Much-needed dry weather arrives for Friday as ridging builds at all levels. This brief reprieve comes ahead of a potent next system that is expected to bring significant changes to the regional weather pattern. Saturday: Latest water vapor imagery highlights a large and potent upper-level low currently over the Pacific Northwest. The base of this trough will extend south into the Southern Plains late Friday, with the primary surface low tracking through the Western Great Lakes and into Northern Ontario by Saturday morning. This trajectory will allow a cold front to sweep through Southeast Michigan by early Saturday afternoon, which should effectively limit the severe weather threat and taper off showers as surface ridging builds in behind it. There is currently excellent model consensus (NAM, Canadian, Euro, and UKMET) regarding this frontal timing. Only a few Euro ensemble members are suggesting the development of a secondary low, which would be the only scenario that slows the frontal passage. Strong cold advection will lead to a chilly Sunday. Temperatures at the 850 MB level are projected to bottom out at or below -10°C by Sunday evening, which will keep surface high temperatures struggling to even exit the 40s during the day. Steep low-level lapse rates will also support isolated to potentially scattered rain or melting snow showers through Sunday afternoon. As skies clear and winds diminish Sunday night, temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s. Consequently, a Freeze Warning will likely be required for the region. MARINE... A trough moves into the area today maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms with an isolated storm mainly over the southern Great Lakes having the potentially to be severe. System peels away from the region late tonight ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30 knots. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential remains low (<30%). HYDROLOGY... Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through this evening. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage. Showers today, with embedded thunderstorms, will lead to localized heavy downpours. While most locations will receive less than 1 inch of rain, the primary concern is thunderstorm training (multiple storms moving over the same area). This could lead to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for significant flooding. Confidence in the exact placement of these heavier rain corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains conducive to efficient rainfall rates. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through this evening for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  844 FXUS63 KLMK 161040 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly cloudy skies are expected today with some morning showers. Abundant cloud cover will likely limit instability and result in less shower and thunderstorm chances. * A period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected for Friday. * Strong cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region for Saturday. There remains a low-end risk of strong storms with this system. Much cooler air will arrive late Saturday and Sunday with a patchy frost likely Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Early morning observations reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region with temperatures in the mid-upper 60s on the ridges and lower-mid 50s in the more protected valleys. Area radars continued to show dry conditions across the region for the time being. For the remainder of overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected for the next few hours. Ongoing line of convection out near St. Louis will continue to move slowly eastward across southern IL this morning. This activity may make it into our far northwest counties by sunrise. Expect overnight temperatures to remain in the mid-upper 60s in most areas, with the more protected valleys remaining in the mid 50s. For today, quite a bit of mid-high level cloud cover will move across the region during the morning hours. Decaying line of showers will attempt to push through the region. However, latest round of convective allowing guidance continues to trend drier in recent runs. Overall, it appears that some scattered rain showers will be possible in the I-65 corridor and point west this morning. Some thinning of the cloud cover may occur by mid-late afternoon and that could result in some convective redevelopment across the eastern sections of the forecast area (mainly east of the US 27/127 corridor). A look at proximity model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates across the region with about 25-30kts of bulk shear. Soundings continue to show a bit of a warm nose above 700mb which may keep convection from getting sufficiently deep. Should deep convection develop, brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds would be the main threats. The expected cloud cover will likely keep temperatures a bit cooler today with highs of 75-80 expected across the region. For this evening and overnight, will have to watch areas to our southwest where some of the data suggests that a trailing convective outflow boundary combined with differential heating may lead to another batch of strong/severe convection firing across southern MO and into northern AR. This activity may scrape across southwest KY and could impact our southern zones (prob around 30%). Otherwise, some partial clearing is expected with lows falling back into the upper 50s to around 60. For Friday and Friday night, shortwave trough axis looks to move across the Mid-Atlantic while upper ridging rebuilds across the deep south into the Ohio Valleys. A broad southwest flow is expected across the region with mostly sunny skies. This pattern should allow temperatures to top out in the 83-88 degree range with breezy winds out of the southwest. A rather extensive area of strong/severe convection is expected from the southern Plains northeast through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Friday afternoon/evening. This activity will likely continue into the overnight hours with clouds increasing across our region and a chance of showers in areas west of I-65 prior to dawn Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the mid-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Saturday and Saturday Night... For Saturday, a large scale upper trough axis over the upper Midwest will shift through the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the OH/TV Valleys during the day on Saturday. A large cold front will accompany this trough axis and this feature will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient will increase and that will lead to gusty southwest winds of 25-30 mph during the morning and into the afternoon hours. An extensive area of cloud cover will spread across the Ohio Valley during the day, mainly impacting areas west of the I-65 corridor. Highs along and west of the I-65 corridor look to warm into the low-mid 70s, with upper 70s to near 80 in areas east of I-65. The latest guidance continues to push the front in a little faster than in previous forecast. As of this writing, the surface cold front should be pushing across the IN/IL border by Saturday morning and then crossing the Ohio River sometime between 18-21Z and then slowly pushing into the Bluegrass region during the late evening hours. Ahead of the front, a band of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected. Instability may be quite limited in areas west of I-65 due to extensive cloud cover. However, in areas east of I-65, a pool of low level moisture will be available and some diurnal heating may allow MLCAPE values to reach 800-1000 J/kg. While the instability may be modest, model proximity soundings continue to show rather strong low-mid level flow across the region which would support organized convection. Overall flow is unidirectional so convection would tend to be more linear in nature with damaging winds being the main concern. Best combination of shear/instability looks to be just northeast of the CWA from across mainly southern Ohio into portions of West Virgina where the new SPC day 3 slight risk is located. The highest chances of showers and storms on Saturday continues to be from the mid-morning through the late afternoon as the frontal boundary pushes through the region. Overall confidence in the frontal boundary timing has increased a bit with this forecast as most model guidance has the frontal boundary east of the I-65 corridor by the evening hours. While the front may be pushing through the Bluegrass region at that time, extensive cloud cloud cover and light rain showers may persist until mid-evenig or so. Behind the front, the winds will shift to the northwest and will remain gusty through the evening. Temperatures are expected fall sharply behind the front, with afternoon readings falling from the 70/80s to the low-mid 50s by mid-evening. Convection looks to move out of the forecast area by midnight or so with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by sunrise Sunday. Sunday through Wednesday... Upper trough axis will pivot through the region on Sunday with a much cooler/drier airmass filtering into the region through the day. Highs on Sunday will likely remain in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass region with lower 60s elsewhere. High pressure will pass over the region Sunday night and there is an increasing risk of frost across the area, especially in the Bluegrass region where temperatures may dip into the middle 30s. Highs will begin to moderate on Monday with readings in the lower 60s in the Bluegrass with mid-upper 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Highs will warm into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday with a slight chance of showers/storms on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will be seen at the terminals early this morning with high clouds and light southwest winds. Convection out toward STL will gradually move eastward overnight and weaken. Convective remains may hold together and impact HNB/SDF/LEX during the morning hours. While VFR conditions should hold, some tempo drops in showers to MVFR will be possible. Southwest winds will pickup by mid-morning with gusts of 18-20kts being possible through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish toward sunset with skies clearing out. Winds will be mainly WSW and less than 5kts later tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...MJ  316 FXUS62 KMLB 161040 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - High pressure remaining in place will support dry and warming conditions across east central Florida through this weekend, with some portions of the interior nearing record highs. - A cold front passage late Sunday through Monday will be followed by increasing winds and seas behind the front, with hazardous boating conditions likely returning early next week. - A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today; entering the ocean is not advised! A return of poor to hazardous beach conditions is likely early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today-Tonight...High pressure at the surface combined with strong ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions across east central Florida once again today. This setup at the surface and aloft will support continued heating across east central Florida, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the low 80s along the coast and the mid to upper 80s across the interior. The ridge axis itself is anticipated to remain draped just north of east central Florida, causing winds to take on more of an east-southeast orientation. Winds will be enhanced this afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze and its push inland, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds and the greatest potential for wind gusts will remain focused along the coast. Winds wane into the overnight hours and become light and variable, with overnight temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. There is a chance for patchy fog development late tonight, but confidence in this remains low. At the beaches, lingering swells and onshore winds will create a high risk of rip currents along the east central Florida coast today. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged! Friday-Sunday...The current weather set-up with high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain in place through the remainder of this week and through the weekend. The warming trend is anticipated to continue, with highs climbing into the mid 80s and low 90s nearly areawide across east central Florida. Afternoon high records could also be broken this weekend, especially at some of the interior climate sites (Leesburg and Orlando). Overnight lows will also trend warmer than normal, reaching the mid to upper 60s. Outside of the warming temperatures across east central Florida, the weather will remain dry with winds becoming easterly each afternoon through Saturday as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. By Sunday, winds are anticipated to become more westerly out ahead of a cold front that will move southward across the peninsula Sunday night into Monday. Monday-Wednesday...A cold front drifts southward across the Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning, with a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms forecast primarily from the Cape to Orlando and southward on Monday afternoon. High pressure then reestablishes itself across the western Atlantic and across the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, persisting into the middle of next week. A return of diurnally-driven showers looks possible starting on Wednesday, though confidence in this remains low at this time and there is only a 20% mention of showers at this time. Behind the front, a strong pressure gradient is anticipated to occur due to the placement of the high pressure relative to the location of the frontal boundary. This will result in increasing northeast winds behind the front that will spread southward across the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters Monday into Tuesday. The pressure gradient is anticipated to weaken by Wednesday, with predominantly easterly flow areawide. This rapid increase in winds will result in building seas, which will also likely translate into deteriorating beach conditions once again along the east central Florida coast. Temperatures are forecast to cool behind the front as the dry air settles southward across the peninsula, with afternoon highs and overnight lows falling slightly below normal values. It will be short-lived, however, as the return of high pressure will support a gradual warming trend across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend as high pressure remains in place. Onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue across the waters along with seas of 2 to 4 feet. There are no rain chances forecast through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, a cold front is anticipated to move towards the local waters, drifting southward across the area into Monday. There is a low chance for showers and storms out ahead of and along the cold front. Behind the cold front, a rapidly tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing winds, with northeast winds anticipated to reach 20 to 30 knots Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas respond by building to 6 to 10 feet, with the highest waves focused across the offshore waters. Hazardous boating conditions will likely warrant the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at some point late this weekend into early next week. Winds subside into the middle of next week along with a return of generally favorable boating conditions as seas subside. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR are forecast thru the TAF period. SCT/BKN030-045 are anticipated as ESE winds increase to 7-12 kt. An occasional gust of 15-20 kt is possible along the coast behind the sea breeze. Winds decrease after 02z (5-10 kt or less), becoming variable at many sites Fri. morning. Will monitor low potential for FG, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure will remain in place across the Florida peninsula, keeping conditions dry through the end of this week and into the weekend with a warming trend also anticipated to continue. The dry air mass will lead to minimum RH values falling below critical thresholds across the interior west of I-95 each afternoon, with minimum RH values forecast to remain above thresholds along the coast. Onshore winds will develop each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland, enhancing winds to 10 to 15 mph with the strongest winds focused along the coast. Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across east central Florida through at least Sunday. By Sunday night and into Monday, a weak front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula, resulting in increasing moisture and a return of low rain chances (20-30%). Winds are anticipated to increase out of the northeast behind the front, which could lead to control concerns into early next week. Practice fire safety to avoid starting wildfires, such as properly discarding cigarettes and avoiding outdoor burning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 80 63 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 87 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 86 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Schaper  155 FXUS64 KHUN 161042 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 542 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - There is a low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday (mainly afternoon and evening). A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - There is a high (60-80%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail. - A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fairly benign weather early this morning across the Tennessee Valley, with just some passing cirrus clouds overhead and a broad area of high pressure to the south resulting a light southwest winds. Later today however, we'll see the first precipitation we've had in 10-11 days as a weak shortwave ripples from the Mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians over the next 24 hour hours. This will sent a weak front further south and east along the I-40 corridor of Tennessee and Arkansas, serving as a focus for some convection late this morning into the afternoon. This activity should be more scattered in nature, especially as it pushes south and east, with low to medium PoPs of around 20-50% from the late afternoon into the evening hours. 30-40 kts of bulk shear should allow for some organized clusters of storms, with the inverted-v profile exhibiting the potential for some localized gusty, damaging winds (especially for areas along and north of the Tennessee River). The main limiting factor for anything strong to severe will be the modest instability (SBCAPE values around 400-600 J/kg in the late afternoon) and a stout capping inversion aloft by the evening which will limit our thermodynamic environment after sunset. Thus, think there could be the potential for a few strong storms, but the probability of any severe storms is low. Otherwise another warm day, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s once again. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 During the afternoon hours tomorrow, convection-allowing models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of a trailing outflow boundary (extending from western AR into southern MO). As large scale ascent strengthens with the approach of an amplifying mid-level wave, this activity may tend to evolve into a small but somewhat organized cluster of storms as it spreads southeastward late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening, before gradually dissipating later tomorrow evening as it becomes displaced from the initiating trough. Although the system should be weakening as it tracks across our CWFA, a second round of rain and some thunderstorms may occur early tomorrow evening, accompanied by a risk for locally strong wind gusts (especially across northwest AL). Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible in locations that are fortunate enough to receive measurable rainfall as temps drop into the u50s-l60s. South-southwesterly flow will resume on Friday as a surface low develops north-northeastward (from eastern NE into western Lake Superior) in response to an intensifying trough tracking eastward across southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. With a developing subsidence inversion in the mid-levels expected to result in mostly sunny skies and dry conditions on Friday, afternoon temps will return to the m-u 80s, which may fall just shy of record highs for the day. Overnight lows will drop into the l-m 60s Saturday morning. Latest short range model guidance still suggests that rapid intensification of the northern stream trough will support steady deepening of the related surface low as it tracks northeastward across eastern OT and into northern QC by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, a cold front will spread southeastward, likely reaching northwestern AL late Saturday afternoon and exiting our forecast area by Midnight. After diminishing in coverage during the morning hours on Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the southern portion of the cold front Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and a lingering layer of stable air aloft begins to erode with the approach of the mid-level trough. With mid-level WSW flow predicted to increase into the 50-60 knot range Saturday evening, deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized storm clusters, capable of producing small hail and strong wind gusts. However, this will likely be more of a concern across northwest AL where instability will be maximized around the time of frontal passage. In the wake of the front, a 2-4 hour window of light rain can be expected, as winds veer to the north and begin to advect a cooler continental airmass into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 An upper level trough will be swinging from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the eastern seaboard through Monday. Ridging tries to build in the wake of this through midweek, but a few shortwave ripples are shown to dive into the region from the mid Mississippi River Valley during this time. At the surface, a cold front will have passed to our southeast by Sunday morning, with high pressure from western Canada and the northwest CONUS pushing into the Southeastern states. This feature will largely maintain its hold on the eastern CONUS until it is shunted eastward through midweek by a system sweeping over Canada. For sensible weather for the local area, there may be some lingering showers early Sunday morning from the system that is slated to move through on Saturday (discussed above), but much of the long term period looks to be dry. Although, we will need to keep an eye on Wednesday, as some guidance hints at the potential (albeit low probability) for the aformentioned upper shortwaves to bring some rain to the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is low at this point due to model discrepancies, but stay tuned! Don't pack those jackets away for the season just yet, since it will be fairly cool to start the week. Cold air advection from the high pressure moving in from the northwest CONUS and western Canada will result in highs topping out in the 60s Sunday afternoon and forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night! Monday will be pleasant with highs in the lower 70s with lows in the 40s that night. Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on if you like or dislike cooler weather), temperatures will then begin to moderate once again through midweek. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at both terminals through the period, with SW/WSW becoming gusty in the afternoon and evening around 10-15 kts. A weak front will approach the region late in the day and a few clusters of showers and storms will pass through the area. Have added a PROB30 for a -TSRA mentioned during the 21-22z to 03-04z timeframe to highlight this. Should a storm impact either terminal, AWWs and amendments may be needed. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24  211 FXUS62 KTAE 161046 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Patchy to Areas of fog are possible in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SE Alabama, and portions of SW Georgia each morning heading into the weekend. Fog could be dense for areas west of the Ochlockonee River. If encountering fog while driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and increase braking distance. - Little or no rain is expected through this weekend. Drought conditions will worsen. Fire concerns will remain elevated. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect. - Above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend, with lower 90s likely late this week. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over our marine zones for Sunday into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong mid level high pressure is situated over the northeast Gulf and up the eastern seaboard while a shortwave trough is located in the southern Plains. The ridge will be shunted south this afternoon and tonight as the trough moves northeast through the Tennessee Valley. The ridge builds back northward ahead of another trough moving through the Plains and an associated cold front. Before the front arrives Sunday, very warm temperatures will continue into the first half of the weekend. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s with around 90 degrees in some locations in the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia / I-75 corridor Friday and Saturday. Along with this, fog development appears likely each morning through Saturday. HREF/NBM probs for dense fog is around 60- 70% through the Panhandle and Big Bend where a dense fog advisory is in effect and may need to be extended east overnight tonight and may require another advisory Friday morning. Much of the forcing with the cold front will be located well north of the area as the front swings by but may be just enough to squeeze out a few showers (holding around 20% west of the Flint/Apalachicola rivers Sunday morning). Slightly cooler and drier air will be left in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s and 80s Sunday through Tuesday then a gradual moderating trend Wednesday with more widespread 80s returning. Fire concerns continue through the area with the ongoing drought and continued dry conditions. The next front appears to be a mostly dry frontal passage with a reinforcing shot of drier air on north to northeast winds. In fact, afternoon humidities may fall below 20% in spots Monday, which coupled with breezy winds and it sets the stage for high fire danger which may extend into Tuesday as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 LIFR/VLIFR conditions are prevailing at ECP/TLH/VLD this morning but will quickly improve to MVFR/VFR by 14/15z as the sun helps to scour out the fog. 10 knot south and southwest winds will prevail this afternoon. Another round of patchy fog and low ceilings is possible again late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 High pressure will dominate through the northeast Gulf waters into the weekend with light southerly breezes and 1-2 foot seas. Seabreezes will likely develop and push inland each afternoon. A cold front will pass through late this weekend, shifting the winds northeasterly/northerly. Behind the front, small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday night through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The stretch of dry weather will continue with high pressure situated through the southeast US. MinRHs today through Saturday will generally be in the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range inland. High dispersions are expected today along and north of Highway 82 and on Saturday along and north of I-10 as afternoon mixing heights reach in excess of 6000 feet. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, shifting winds northerly and increasing transport winds to 15-20 mph. Minimum relative humidities following the front fall to critical values in the upper teens to low 20s percent range, increasing fire weather concerns for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Little to no rain is expected for the next several days. Drought conditions will continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 63 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  680 FXUS64 KOHX 161047 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 547 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - There are medium to high rain/storm chances this evening, and again Saturday. A few strong storms with gusty winds are possible this evening, but the severe weather threat is low today and Saturday. - Expect unseasonal warmth to last through Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 I think CAMs have started to come into better agreement on storms today so I've made some adjustments to PoPs throughout the day based on these trends. Basically revolves around light rain with this wave we're seeing on radar this already this morning. This will probably dissipate through the morning hours and may not even make it to the the Plateau before it dries up. As we get into the afternoon, radar should be relatively clear and the sun should act to build our instability. Here's the catch: I think the strength of late afternoon/early evening storms is going to depend on timing and the latest few runs of the HRRR is showing early evening (7-9 pm) arrival of a cluster of storms. This means we may be able to bleed off some of the instability that builds in the afternoon and mitigate what would otherwise be a significant wind threat. If they arrive earlier (say 4-6 pm) at the TN River, then we could see a greater wind threat for those who see the storm activity. The day shift will get several more CAM runs before any of this stuff gets here later today to fine tune arrival time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Clouds will fill in in the area overnight ahead of tomorrow's severe threat. There is a low to medium probability (20-40%) of seeing some showers in the morning, but these would be sub-severe. Later in the afternoon, as surface heating occurs and our temperatures approach the low 80s, lapse rates will steepen alongside a shortwave. This will present a severe threat that is marginal in nature (level 1 out of 5), but still something to watch. While the severe threat is low and looks to be isolated tomorrow afternoon and evening, the main hazards look to be gusty winds and some hail. Some guidance is putting out a complex of storms that will move west to east across the area, however, the models that were showing this have since backed off this outcome in recent outputs. We will have to see as things progress tomorrow, and what things look like to our west once the threat develops, so stay tuned to the latest forecast information. Once the severe threat moves on, Friday will be much warmer. Highs look to get into the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, with an isolated rain threat in the afternoon. This looks to be more of a diurnal chance, reliant on the daytime heating of the surface. Regardless, the chances are low (<25%), with the highest likelihood of seeing some drops being in the northwest near the Land Between The Lakes. Unfortunately, neither of these rain chances in the short term look to help us out with our drought. QPF amounts tomorrow are less than half an inch across Middle Tennessee, with very little additional help on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Our next rain chance comes on Saturday, with a strong cold front propagating into Middle Tennessee as a low pressure system pushes into Canada from the northern great plains. The severe threat with this FROPA is underwhelming, as the convective activity lags behind the actual front itself. A post-frontal environment is not conducive for severe weather, so I'd be surprised to see more than a couple of severe storms on Saturday, and that's a stretch. Unfortunately, QPF is disappointing with this as well, with amounts over the weekend barely cracking half an inch into Sunday. We'll need a lot more rain that that to bust this drought, but some rain will help water the plants. Surface high pressure sets in post-frontal, keeping things quiet for the beginning of the work week. That cold front will pack a punch, dropping our highs into the 60s on Sunday. Highs will warm into the low 80s mid-week, so don't get too used to the below normal temperatures! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A little better confidence on this evening's storms going into this TAF cycle. Some light rain in the morning, but we should remain VFR. TS this evening will come with brief reduction to MVFR then return to VFR for the rest of the night. Winds will be less than 10 kts through 15-16Z, then become breezy through 00Z/Fri. Will continue to highlight this evening's storm potential with PROB30s and adjust through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 61 88 68 / 60 40 20 10 Clarksville 80 61 88 68 / 60 20 20 20 Crossville 80 56 82 61 / 40 30 10 0 Columbia 82 58 87 66 / 60 60 20 0 Cookeville 79 58 82 64 / 40 20 10 10 Jamestown 80 56 82 62 / 40 20 10 10 Lawrenceburg 82 58 86 66 / 40 60 10 0 Murfreesboro 82 58 87 66 / 50 50 20 0 Waverly 80 61 88 68 / 60 60 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger  232 FXUS64 KLUB 161051 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Warm and breezy with critical fire danger on both Thursday and Friday. - A few storms are possible Friday night off the Caprock. - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry weather will continue through the overnight period and during the day on Thursday as surface flow maintains a notable westerly component, keeping low level moisture well to our east. Flow aloft will gradually begin backing on Thursday ahead of the next upper level system transiting over the intermountain west, but with broad surface troughing set to persist over SE CO and the TX Panhandle which will delay the onset of moisture return across our region. Southwest winds are expected to be a bit stronger on Thursday afternoon compared to the past couple of days, which combined with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and RH values below 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock on Thursday afternoon. Surface flow will finally back towards a more southerly direction Thursday night which will quickly pull some shallow moisture northward into our region by early Friday. As this moisture return occurs, a bit of lift associated with a modest low level jet could be sufficient to generate a few showers or storms overnight Thursday through early Friday. However, this is appearing increasingly unlikely given the rather weak forcing and plentiful convective inhibition in place over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Friday will begin on the humid side, but surface moisture will quickly mix out as stronger southwesterly low level flow develops in response to deepening troughing ahead of a strong cold front descending southward through KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles. Winds will become solidly breezy by Friday afternoon which will bring another day of critical fire weather conditions to most of the region. The above-mentioned cold front is then expected to pass southward through the region near or just after sunset, bringing a shift to strong north winds along with a sharp cooldown Friday night. For the majority of the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage. However, a few storms may still develop off the Caprock Friday night as the front intersects the retreating dryline in addition to increasing upper level forcing for ascent. Plentiful instability and 50+ kt bulk shear magnitudes could result in some of these storms becoming severe late Friday night in this area, especially over the eastern Rolling Plains. Dry and relatively cool weather is expected area-wide throughout the upcoming weekend as a ~1025mb surface ridge builds over the region, with a light freeze not out of the question over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. By early next week, model consensus favors modest upper level ridging building over our area ahead of a deep low off the CA/OR coast. A few weak disturbances beneath the ridge combined with returning low level moisture may bring a few showers or storms to the region on Monday, but the bulk of this activity looks likely to remain to our south and east. Warmer temperatures then return Tuesday and beyond with a dry forecast currently favored through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR. Winds will transition to the southwest, with winds becoming breezy this afternoon and into tonight at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Southwest winds will strengthen by late Thursday morning and become quite breezy through the rest of the day. Sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected across most of the Caprock Thursday afternoon which combined with minimum RH values in the single digits will result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM Thursday for most areas on the Caprock. Slightly weaker winds off the Caprock will keep fire danger in the elevated category east of the escarpment, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect there from 12 PM to 8 PM as well. Similar conditions are expected Friday, although winds will likely be a bit stronger compared to Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of the region on Friday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  964 FXUS64 KLIX 161052 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 552 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 451 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through Saturday. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals. - Most visibilities should remain greater than 1/4 mile, so a dense fog advisory is not expected. But, patchy dense fog could occur around sunrise this and friday morning especially around river systems. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Diddo as the last several days through Saturday. A cold front will begin to add some interest to the fcast by sunset Saturday. We should see this front beginning to enter the area around sunset Sat evening. There will be some sh/ts associated as it enters the area. But these will begin to decay as the system moves SE. After sunset and before midnight Sat, a new short wave will kick out of the long wave upper trough along the front edge of the sfc thermal belt, which will help give some extra help to lift, producing a good amount of sh/ts with some heavy rain. But as the front out paces this disturbance, the area of sh/ts will become elevated and eventually begin to weaken as it moves through the area after midnight and before sunrise Sun. Th storms with this feature will at first retain some heavy rainfall before getting squeezed vertically, bringing rain amounts lower as it moves SE during the morning hours. The area of sh/ts will be alleviated by noon Sunday, so a quick decline as we cross the sunrise hour Sunday. But it does look like a good portion of the area will get some much needed rainfall. The next thing noticed will be the cool down with highs only reaching the mid 70s Sunday into Monday but lows will be a bit on the chilly side by Sunday and Monday morning with mid 50s and around 50F respectively. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A fast moving northern stream trough axis and attendant cold front will slip through the region Saturday night. Moisture pooling in advance of the front will allow precipitable water values to briefly surge to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches for a few hours in the late evening and early overnight hours. This moisture will be lifted by the approaching front to create a narrow band of light to moderate rainfall and a few elevated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Fortunately, surface based instability will be very limited ahead of the front and shear will be largely non-existent. As a result, no severe weather is anticipated with this frontal passage. Instead, some much needed rainfall will move through the region. A large temperature spread exists between the various models as the timing of the front varies by a few hours, but the overall trend is weighting toward readings falling into the 50s and lower 60s by daybreak on Sunday. Any lingering rainfall for areas south of I-10 should also be quickly clearing during the morning hours on Sunday. The strength of the high pressure system and cold pool building into the region will support some breezier conditions after the front moves through late Saturday night into Sunday, but winds will remain below any wind advisory levels. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler than average, but very pleasant, as highs climb into the low to mid 70s. Sunday night through Tuesday will see a combination of strong negative vorticity and dry air advection into the region as a shortwave ridge axis builds in from the west and deep layer northerly flow persists. The end result will be largely clear skies, low humidity, and a large diurnal temperature range. The one area of potential concern will be the amount of dry air that mixes down to the surface Monday afternoon and how strong winds may be at that time. Minimum RH values are projected to fall to between 25 and 30 percent over portions of southern Mississippi and the Northshore of southeast Louisiana, and these values may be on the higher end. Winds are also projected to be close to 15 mph, so some red flag conditions may be met for a few hours. This will be monitored over the next couple of days to see if the lower humidity trends change. Temperatures will range a good 25 to 30 degrees each day with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday night before climbing into the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday will see similar conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday, the pattern will shift as a strong surface to mid-level ridge develops over the southeast CONUS. This will place the region in an extended period of southeast flow from the Gulf. A plume of higher theta e air and higher PWATS will feed into east Texas and western Louisiana during this period of time, and the main focus for heavier rainfall will be confined to those areas. However, just enough instability and moisture in the low to mid-levels as noted by surface based CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/KG and PWATS rising to around 1.25 inches will be sufficient to allow some low topped convection to form during peak heating hours Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A strong mid-level capping inversion at 700mb will prohibit deeper convection from developing as the influence from a southern Plains ridge axis feeds some drier air aloft into the Lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures will also continue to warm on the back of the onshore flow from the Gulf with readings rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overall, a return to a more humid and warmer stretch of weather is expected as we move into the latter half of next week. (PG) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 MVFR to IFR cigs and a few vis will remain until a few hours after sunrise today. Otherwise, the remainder of the day will be VFR. Tonight will have cigs start out in VFR and slowly lower to MVFR within a few hours before sunrise, then lower to IFR rapidly around sunrise Fri morning. Vis will be much like the last few days with a few sites having IFR to MVFR conditions temporarily around sunrise this and Fri morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf through Saturday. A cold front is expected to move through the northern gulf bringing northerly winds Sunday into early next week where more hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...PG MARINE...TE  995 FXUS64 KEWX 161053 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 553 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday as a cold front moves across the area. - Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A trough continues to lift northeast early this morning bringing a brief period of mid-level ridging over the area. A weak disturbance may bring enough forcing to generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, but primarily expect dry, though humid, conditions today. Cloud cover will begin to scatter mid to late morning with partly sunny skies and highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon. Persistent south to southeasterly low- level flow will allow for another night of low cloud development bringing above normal low temperatures to the area in the mid 60s to low 70s. A trough digs into the Central Plains on Friday which will aid in a cold front moving towards our area Friday night into Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon Friday with southerly wind from 10 to 20 mph. Another warm day is expected with highs along the I-35 corridor near 90 degrees with the mid 90s forecast over the Rio Grande Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A deep trough continues its progression east bringing a cold front to our doorstep Saturday morning. This front will move across the entirety of South Central Texas by mid to late afternoon bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Precipitable water values increase ahead of the front generally ranging from 1.5-1.75 inches. With deep moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Saturday in a favorable environment for instances of locally heavy rainfall. WPC continues to highlight a good portion of our area in a Level 1 of 4 for excessive rainfall this day. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with this activity on Saturday as well, though the earlier timing of the front will likely limit this potential. Cooler air filters in behind the front keeping mild lows on Saturday from the upper 60s to low 70s in the north to the low 80s in the south. Precipitation chances continue into Sunday but will mainly be light rain with the highest rain chances in our southern and western areas. Some elevated instability may allow for some thunderstorms to develop as well this day, but will likely be sub-severe. Otherwise expect a somewhat breezy day under overcast skies with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. A disturbance within southwesterly flow aloft allows for rain chances to continue Sunday night into Monday, then additional disturbances continue low chances for showers and storms for some of our area into mid-week. Low level flow turns easterly on Monday with coolest high temperatures of the week forecast in the 60s to low 70s across South Central Texas. Southeasterly wind then returns Tuesday bringing a day by day warming trend into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 For the majority of the morning period, a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions are anticipated for all area terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate the afternoon and evening periods with a southeast to south wind flow ranging from 8 to 16 knots with gusts up to 24 knots mainly in the afternoon and early evening. MVFR cigs return late this evening into Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 89 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 68 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 66 86 61 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 70 92 67 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 67 89 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 89 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...17  824 FXUS62 KMFL 161054 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 654 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 653 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Generally benign weather continues through the end of the week. Above average temperatures could be likely over the weekend. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Friday evening. - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Benign weather conditions will prevail through the short term period as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters. This ridge of high pressure will help continue to promote subsidence across South Florida; that, along with an anomalous mass of dry air aloft (as evidenced by the 00z MFL sounding and ACARS data from KMIA/KFLL/KPBI), will help inhibit any mentionable chances for precipitation across the area today. Some moisture will begin to filter in near the surface on Friday, which could allow for some nuisance showers to form over the local Atlantic waters and the immediate East Coast. However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected at this time. With easterly winds near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Friday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Conditions will remain generally unchanged over the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather early next week. Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for some moisture to filter back into the region, with models PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1- 1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially along any sea breeze boundaries that manage to develop. Conditions could begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week, clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. However, much uncertainty remains with this solution; a deeper, faster trough (and thus a stronger, faster front) could result in generally drier conditions for our area, while a slower, weaker trough could lead to higher QPFs for the region. For now, the NBM supports a slightly deeper, faster solution with 30-40% PoPs each day, and QPFs less than 1 inch. We will continue to monitor this solution as the forecast evolves. Above average temperatures will be likely this weekend as weak easterly flow prevails, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Easterly winds will persist, ranging from 5-10 kts early this morning, and increasing up to 10-15 kts late morning into the afternoon. At KAPF, a Gulf breeze will develop, with westerly winds moving ashore. Winds should become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong onshore flow will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 71 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 84 67 87 69 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 71 86 71 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 82 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 85 72 88 73 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 80 70 83 71 / 0 10 10 0 Boca Raton 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0 Naples 85 66 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto  137 FXUS65 KBYZ 161055 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 455 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm system will be over the area through Friday: Widespread rain/snow transitioning to mostly snow during the day Today. Significant snow accumulations confined to the foothills and mountains. - Moderate to heavy snow for all mountains. - Warmer and Dry this Weekend. - Active weather continues next week. && .UPDATE... A few changes to the forecast this morning. Cold front has pushed to a Miles City to Ashland line at 430 am. A defined band of precipitation has developed along the 700mb frontogenesis line over eastern Yellowstone county, shifting slowly to the east as colder air deepens up. Updated forecast highs to go about 5 degrees cooler than previous forecast. Temperatures are falling quickly behind the cold front and with cloud cover and precipitation all day expect highs to stick fairly close to early morning readings through the day. Also adjusted precipitation probabilities for the latest model trends, and tweaked the precipitation type toward more snow as change over is happening much faster than most models are advertising. Kept snow and precipitation amounts pretty close to previous forecast, accounting for what has already occurred overnight. Increased wind speeds through the day with models going stronger over the past few runs, and observed readings over the past few hours well above guidance. No changes to the going winter weather highlites at this time. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday... The longwave trough is digging into the intermountain west now and pushing a surface through northern MT. The trailing cold front is already entering the western part of the CWA at this time. Expect a stark wind shift to the NW and temps to rapidly cool behind the frontal push. Just ahead of the FROPA there is some signal for mountain wave activity in the foothills near Red Lodge. The timbercrest station just above the city is already seeing some wind gusts into the 40s mph. The waves should not be strong due to the 700mb flow only being around 40 to 50 kts. That being said though, the flow of the 700mb winds are perpendicular to the NE face of the Beartooth/Absarokas. Additionally, the subsidence ahead of the front is very pronounced and should be able to force down some wind gusts with assistance of the stable layer forecast to set up just at the mountaintops. Some members of the HREF (primarily the HRW) do bring 50 to 60 mph gusts into Red Lodge, however, it appears that 40 mph gusts are more likely. That is not to say that a stray gust off a particularly high amplitude and strong wave could not touch the 50s mph. The setup for the east side of the Bighorns (Sheridan, WY) is slightly less favorable for the development of any waves. The 700mb wind will be too southwesterly and not strong enough. There still wil be strong subsidence so a gust into the 30s mph ahead of the FROPA this morning is not out of the question in the immediate foothills. Turning the attention over to the precipitation, we are already seeing a good amount of pre-frontal showers across the western half of the CWA just due to CVA ahead of the potent trough. As the front pushes through, the precipitation will become much more widespread this morning. Temperatures, and therefore snow levels, are forecast to quickly drop during the day today. While most of the region has snow levels around 6 kft at tis time, by noon the western 2/3 of the CWA should be seeing snow as the predominat form of precip with the whole area seeing snow by this evening. With how warm we have been over the past week or so, it will be quite hard for this snow to accumulate unless it is coming down particularly heavy and/or for an extended period of time. This is why the accumulation should be limited to the mountains and foothills. Over the past 24 hours the snow and precip totals have remained relatively steady. What has changed a little bit is the high end amounts for most of the foothills have come down. This just appears to be due to the models coming into better agreement that the surface winds should not shift east of north. This setup is not favorable for locations like the foothills west of Sheridan, WY but weak enhancement could still produce 1-3" totals with localized higher amounts; especially near Story. These north- northwesterly winds are not all bad news for the snow lovers though. Some locations can stil get good upslope with this flow including the Paradise Valley. While models still disagree a couple 10s of degrees on wind direction, there is a consensus that some form of northerly component of wind will blow up the valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Due to the westerly component though, it appears that locations east of US-89 will likely pick up far more snow than areas to the west. This type of setup could result in very localized areas of heavier snow in places like Pine Creek or Chico where the NBM 90th shows 10" totals. Red Lodge also will not be completely skipped by this upslope either. While not as favorable as a NNE wind, the primarily northerly component will still mean that there will be upslope winds into the area. So while the 90th percentile is no longer 11" as it was showing yesterday, the town of Red Lodge could pick up 5" when this is all said and done. It is also worth noting that due to the complex terrain west of Billings, some locales may see an inch or two more than the advertised forecast while some may see an inch or two less with these differences potently within a few miles of each other. The other concern with the snow will be the potentially reduced visibility due to blowing snow as it falls. The greatest areas of concern would be Sheridan Co. WY, particularly south of the city of Sheridan, and SE Carbon Co. MT nar Belfry. Both of these areas are in locations favorable to see enhancement of the winds due to wind's orientation in relation with the surrounding terrain. The forecast wind gusts have come down a bit over the past few runs to where our official forecast is now advertising gusts in the low 30s mph which will limit any visibility reductions. Also the snow will probably be on the heavier side (less than 10:1) which should limit any blowing as well. That being said, prepare for reductions in visibility in these areas tonight. After this system exits during the day Friday, ridging quickly builds back into the entire intermountain west. This will allow for temperatures to quickly rebound back to above average for the entire weekend as well as keep the entire region dry. With these warm temperatures, expect any snow that accumulates outside the mountains (below 6 kft) to quickly melt. By Sunday, the high temperatures for locations near Billings may be back in the 70s again. Looking ahead to the middle of next week, all models and their ensembles continue to show a high amplitude trough dig into the west coast. There is still disagreement around what this will look like (ie. cutoff or progressive) but it is safe to say that another potentially impactful system could be here by this time next week. WMR .AVIATION... 06z TAF Discussion...A cold front is approaching western zones at 05z and will move through the western half of the forecast area in the overnight hours, working through the rest of the area Thursday morning. West/southwest winds will be gusty ahead of the front especially along the foothills where gusts in the 40kt range are possible. Where low level inversion is strong enough, low level wind shear can be expected. As the front moves through winds will shift to the northwest and stronger foothills gusts will diminish. Isolated embedded low top thunderstorms are possible along the front as it moves through the area overnight. Precipitation type will be mainly rain for the first 6 hours or so behind the front shifting to a rain/snow mix. A shift to all snow is expected for the western foothills by 12z, central zones by 18z, and in the east Thursday evening as snow levels drop from west to east. Widespread west to northwest gusts of 20 to 35 kts will continue behind a cold front into the afternoon. Scattered rain showers, becoming snow showers, may impact all TAF sites through the TAF period. The highest confidence (80%) in impacts is over the mountains and along the foothills, including KLVM and KSHR. Ceilings and visibilities will be reduced to MVFR/IFR under the heaviest showers. The Absaroka/Beartooth foothills are most likely to see impacts through early this evening and the Bighorn foothills from late this morning through late evening. Expect mountain obscuration. Archer/Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 041 026/049 028/060 034/072 043/078 045/080 048/072 9/O 54/J 20/U 00/U 00/B 01/U 24/W LVM 035 021/042 021/056 030/067 037/072 042/074 043/064 8/S 57/T 30/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 35/W HDN 043 023/050 026/061 031/073 038/079 042/082 047/075 8/O 54/J 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/U 24/W MLS 045 023/042 023/055 030/070 040/076 043/080 049/072 4/R 20/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 4BQ 051 025/043 024/054 030/069 040/077 044/080 048/073 7/R 71/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 23/W BHK 051 022/038 018/050 025/066 037/073 040/075 044/069 4/R 51/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W SHR 045 021/042 021/054 028/067 035/075 041/077 043/071 9/T 96/J 31/U 00/U 00/B 11/U 24/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 40-56-64>66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 138. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 171. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 199. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 198. && $$ weather.gov/billings  720 FXUS66 KMFR 161056 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 356 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .DISCUSSION...Showers are continuing to move over Douglas County early this morning, but activity elsewhere is nearly absent. Cool overnight lows are being observed across the area, with west side valleys starting the day off in the low to mid 30s while areas to the east are staying in the low to mid 20s. Daytime highs today look to remain below seasonal norms, with those last showers trailing off into the afternoon as the low pressure system moves farther east. Lingering cold air will bring another round of cool overnight lows tonight into Friday morning. A Freeze Warning is in place for the Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and parts of the Klamath River Valley for early Friday morning. Frosty conditions may be possible in the Umpqua Valley, as that valley runs a little warmer. A more stable pattern looks to guide conditions on Friday and Saturday, bringing a period of warm daytime highs and dry conditions. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest day of this period. Coastal areas may reach the low 60s, while west side valleys have forecast highs in the low 70s. To the east, expected temperatures in valleys and basins are on the mid to high 60s. A low pressure system approaches the area on Sunday, but its modeled behavior seems to change from one run to the next. Current deterministic guidance limits precipitation to coastal areas on Sunday, and even that is uncertain. Ensembles for both ECMWF and GFS models have 50-60% chances for rainfall at North Bend on Sunday, with chances decreasing farther inland. The low dips farther south before hovering off the northern California coast. At this point, southerly flow could bring showers focused on Curry and southern Siskiyou counties. Snow levels of 5000-6000 feet at this point would allow for some mountain snow in western Siskiyou County, but widespread winter impacts look unlikely in this pattern. The modeled low moves inland over Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for widespread showers. Overall, nothing in this system's forecast behavior looks especially threatening, but this is a very preliminary impression. Chances of winds exceeding 35 mph (a speed safely below Advisory thresholds) are minimal in NBM probabilistic guidance, topping out at 20-40% over the Warner Mountains in Modoc County and 10-20% over some other east side peaks through Sunday and Monday. Southerly flow can favor gusty winds developing in the Shasta Valley and over nearby terrain, but models struggle with that level of detail this far out. Forecast snow levels stay in the 5000-6000 foot range. Curry County, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta region could see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall in this timeframe. But to repeat, expectations for this system could change as models get a better hold of its potential. Past Wednesday, deterministic imagery starts to diverge. Meteogram guidance shows some expectation of a warm, dry period towards the end of next week. -TAD && .AVIATION...16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, though widepsread terrain obscurations are occurring. A front is currently passing through the region bringing periods of MVFR conditions in cig/vsbys along with widespread gusty winds. Showers will continue overnight, focused along and north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and this should limit any fog development overnight. However, if there is enough clearing, areas of LIFR conditions could develop in West Side Valleys. The more likely scenario is a low end VFR/MVFR stratus deck lingers over the West Side into Thursday morning. Expect conditions to lift to VFR by Thursday afternoon with a round of gusty north to northwest winds developing area wide. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, April 16, 2026...Gusty northwest winds and steep seas in all waters persist into this afternoon. Winds ease some this evening, but a weak thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco and steep seas south of Ophir into early Saturday morning. Active weather returns late this weekend into next week. Gusty southerly winds and marine showers are possible on Sunday and showers may continue into the week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for CAZ080. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$  875 FXUS63 KAPX 161057 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 657 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Ongoing widespread historic flooding to continue, with some improvements possible in areas that see little to no rainfall over the next 36 hours. -Additional shower and thunder potential today, most concentrated south of M-72, especially near Saginaw Bay. -Following a dry break Friday, a larger system is set to move in Friday night through Saturday, bringing more shower / thunder potential to ALL of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. -Trending sharply cooler with snow chances Sunday before moderating to near normal with minimal rain chances through midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Active southern stream pattern to carry through Friday, albeit with some caveats for northern Michigan. Strongest low level jet dynamics will remain downstate, suppressing the concentration of instability and moisture pooling downstate and points south tonight. Well- defined convectively driven shortwave currently across western Iowa will ride the corridor of SWerly subtropical jet flow, with associated surface low pressure riding the stalled frontal boundary draped across Michigan. Result will be a return of scattered thunderstorms into the day Thursday, particularly across northern lower Michigan. In the wake of this shortwave, a brief window of ridging folds overhead as surface high pressure and subsidence aloft passes over the region, bringing a brief reprieve. This will be short lived as a potent northern stream trough currently over the Pacific northwest will make an eastward advance, forcing ridging and surface high pressure east of the Great Lakes, resulting in the return of more rain and thunder Friday night into Saturday. The backside of this system will deliver a sharply colder airmass with a polar surface high building to start next week, with a seasonable moderating trend commencing with time. Details: Current boundary position generally from Frankfort to Rogers City, with little northward advancement expected over the next 36 hours. This does induce some changes from previous forecast cycles, with deeper moisture content overlapping instability suppressed south. There is potential now for far northern areas of northern lower to completely miss out on rain showers through Friday morning, which is some welcome news for flooding impacts. Light rain showers set to prevail for M-32 and south the rest of tonight and into Thursday. Though if the southern trend in guidance continues, this line may be suppressed as far south as M-72. Lack of instability will limit thunder potential for most... but south of M-55, just enough instability may be present to drive some convection and thus higher rainfall rates, especially closer to Saginaw Bay. As far as additional rainfall through Friday morning is concerned... looking at a general 0.10" or less north of M-72. For those south of M-72, looking more like 0.25-0.50", with localized 0.75"+. The area with the best shot to see upwards of 1.50" of rain is Gladwin and Arenac counties... though that may also get suppressed to the US 10 corridor. So still some monitoring to be had regarding ongoing flooding. The other story tonight will be the prevalence of fog across the region away from the steadier rain to the south. This in itself may limit instability for this afternoon, especially north of the frontal boundary. Otherwise... a break in the action Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Next item of interest will be the system passing through Friday night into Saturday. Occluding and closing off surface low moving eastward across the US / Canada border to our NW will lead to the reinvigoration of the low level jet into the Great Lakes, with another Gulf moisture tap ahead of an advancing cold / occluded frontal boundary. Global models are admittedly struggling with this process... and pattern recognition says this does favor showers and thunderstorms with heavier rainfall across the region. Will have to see how transient this is... orientation of the boundary parallel to the strongest 850mb flow makes me skiddish on saying this will be a fully transient feature. And with potential for heavy rain producing thunderstorms, this needs to be watched closely. Overall, most places probably see an additional 0.25-0.75" of rain Friday night through Saturday night, with localized totals exceeding 1.50". The other issue this system presents is that this time, rainfall may actually make it into eastern upper, a region still nursing a surprisingly resilient snowpack. So hydro concerns may quickly ramp up for our Yooper friends. Beyond this system, a pretty stellar cold intrusion makes an appearance into Sunday with highs falling back into the 30s for the most part... with snow shower chances. Heading into next week, we do slowly moderate back to more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 LIFR grunge continues this morning with light/vrb winds and fog. Scattered rain showers possible thru midday esp for TVC, MBL, APN with slight improvements to IFR possible as winds turn subtly N/NW this afternoon. Lake breezes possible at APN/TVC. Expect cigs to SCT at CIU and PLN around 16-19z with largely MVFR-VFR conditions this afternoon, and closer to 19-21z for TVC/APN; will be slowest to reach MBL. Things likely to fog in to LIFR conditions again tonight as winds go light/vrb again. Winds will eventually turn around to the S/SE and increase to 5-10kts toward 12z. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...FEF  897 FXUS63 KDMX 161057 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 557 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger in northwest Iowa today. - Enhanced Risk for severe storms Friday, especially over the eastern half of the state. - Much cooler this weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A brief respite from storms is on tap today as short wave ridging moves over Iowa. Main concern for today is elevated fire danger over northwest portions of the area where fuels are drier, less rain fell this week, RH will drop to around 20%, and wind gusts will increase to around 25 mph this afternoon. For Friday we turn our attention to the severe storm risk. The long wave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will cross the midwest. The associated cold front will cross Iowa during the day Friday. Strong convergence along the surface boundary, coupled with ample instability in the warm sector ahead of the front will support rapid thunderstorm development by afternoon. Current thinking is that storm initiation will occur from midday to early afternoon when the front is across central Iowa. In term of tornado potential, the main variable to keep an eye on is the low level shear. If backing of the wind occurs ahead of the front, the increased shear will increase the tornado potential. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Patchy, shallow fog at KALO this morning will intermittently impact the airport but should dissipate by 14z. Otherwise VFR conditions are in store this TAF period. Light surface winds will increase from the south today, becoming gusty by afternoon and remaining gusty overnight. Just beyond this TAF period, widespread and potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to impact TAF sites Friday afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...DMD  898 FXUS61 KPHI 161057 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 657 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Record breaking warmth continues through today, with above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend. 2. Elevated fire weather potential today. 3. A period of increased shower chances later this weekend. Much colder temperatures later this weekend and especially early next week, with the greatest risk for frost and/or freeze conditions during Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record breaking warmth continues through today, with above normal temperatures into the first half of the weekend. With high pressure situated over the Atlantic Ocean and the warm front well north of the Mid-Atlantic region, continued warmth is expected through today. Very warm air aloft coupled with warm air at surface levels will allow temperatures to be as much as 15 to 30 degrees above normal through the end of the week. Highs today will be similar to Wednesday's, in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints should mix out a bit more today compared to Wednesday. This could support slightly warmer temperatures, however thicker cirrus could limit heating a bit more. In any case, still expecting several high temperature and warmest low temperature records to fall today. See the Climate Section below for temperature records stats. As is typical in spring though, temperatures along/near the coast will be significantly cooler due to the colder sea surface temperatures and diurnal sea breeze. While a weak surface front passes through early Friday morning, temperatures will stay well above normal into Saturday with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated fire weather potential today. A period of fire weather conditions supportive of fire spread is forecast today, as very warm and dry conditions continue. MinRH values will drop into the 25-35% range for many locales across eastern PA, NJ and Delmarva. This will be accompanied by southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Due to lack of recent rainfall, there is some potential for fire spread. While these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria, a Special Weather Statement will be warranted for some areas. This is of elevated concern for ongoing drought/abnormally dry conditions over much of the area, which will likely only get worse after this week. While there are a few instances of showers over the next couple of days, any rainfall totals will be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 3...A period of increased shower chances later this weekend. Much colder temperatures later this weekend and especially early next week, with the greatest risk for frost and/or freeze conditions during Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A backdoor cold front may arrive into at least parts of our region during Saturday and/or Saturday night. Some guidance is a little more robust with this sneaking in as the low-level flow is more from the northeast and east ahead of an approaching warm front. Given significant inland boundary layer warming during the day Saturday, the leading edge of the cooling may surge inland faster. We then turn our attention to a strong upper-level trough that will settle across most of the East during the second half of this weekend and early next week. A strong cold front will precede this trough and slide across our region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure may also develop along the front in our vicinity. As the main trough axis hangs back farther to the west, much of the shower activity may occur behind the cold front. Given the strength of the incoming upper-level trough, forcing for ascent should be strong enough to result in increasing shower coverage for a time. The thunder risk at this time looks rather low given the timing of the front. This will be much needed rain, and it will also result in a significant cool down into early next week. A gusty wind will also occur especially in the wake of the cold front, and this should limit frost formation Sunday night and early Monday morning. Much lighter winds and a colder air mass with high pressure settling overhead should set the stage for frost and/or freeze conditions Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures then rebound Tuesday afternoon and especially on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with broken cirrus. Southwest winds increasing to around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. High confidence. Tonight...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers, especially for RDG/ABE. Southwest winds shifting west to northwest near 10 kts with low level wind shear possible around frontal passage. High confidence in prevailing conditions. Outlook... Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Some showers Saturday night and especially Sunday morning with a period of sub-VFR conditions possible. West-northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots Sunday afternoon. Monday...VFR. Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing in the evening. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kt and seas around 2-4 feet are expected through tonight. Some isolated gusts up to 25 kts and seas nearing 5 feet are possible, but not expecting these conditions to prevail. Thus, no advisory in effect through tonight at this time. Fair weather. Outlook... Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Sunday and Monday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Several record high and warmest low temperatures were set on Wednesday. Record breaking heat is expected to continue through today, including potential for some sites to experience monthly record warmest low temperatures for April. Below are record highs and record high minimum temperatures for April 16th and monthly warmest low temperature records for April. Record High Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2012 AC Airport (ACY) 89/2002 AC Marina (55N) 88/2002 Georgetown (GED) 89/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) 85/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/2002 Reading (RDG) 90/2012 Trenton (TTN) 91/2012 Wilmington (ILG) 92/1896 Record Warmest Low Temperatures April 16 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 60/1941 AC Airport (ACY) 62/2002 AC Marina (55N) 64/2002 Georgetown (GED) 65/2012 Mount Pocono (MPO) 56/2002 Philadelphia (PHL) 62/2002 Reading (RDG) 65/1941 Trenton (TTN) 62/2002 Wilmington (ILG) 63/2002 Record Warmest Low Temperatures Entire Month of April Site Record/Date (Year) Allentown (ABE) 64/19th (1985 and 2019) and 30th (1983) AC Airport (ACY) 70/26th (2009) AC Marina (55N) 67/26th (2009) Georgetown (GED) 71/29th (2017) Mount Pocono (MPO) 65/25th (1960) Philadelphia (PHL) 70/8th (1929) and 19th (1896) Reading (RDG) 68/25th (1960) Trenton (TTN) 70/19th (1896) and 20th (1896) Wilmington (ILG) 74/19th (1896) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse/Staarmann AVIATION...Gorse/Staarmann MARINE...Gorse/Staarmann  244 FXUS63 KILX 161057 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 557 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is currently an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for areas near and west of the Illinois River on Friday where a significant, all-hazards severe weather outbreak looms. - Much cooler temperatures return this weekend, with an attendant frost risk both Saturday night and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid-level shortwave trough is currently situated over east- central Iowa, visible on early morning water vapor imagery. A significant plume of moisture extends from central Arkansas into the lower Great Lakes, coinciding with an area of mostly stratiform rain. Occasional convective activity, indicated by cooling cloud tops and 40 dbz radar echoes, is embedded within this rain shield. This activity is expected to move slowly eastward and exit Illinois shortly after sunrise as the upper trough progresses into north-central Illinois and the low-level jet weakens. Synoptic-scale subsidence and increasing height tendencies will build across central Illinois by midday, effectively ending precipitation chances for most, if not all, of the forecast area. With clouds lifting and breaking behind the departing shortwave, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 70s. While the primary forecast calls for a clear day without further convection, a slight chance of isolated storms exists near and south of Interstate 70 late this afternoon. This is associated with a separate, trailing mid-level shortwave wobbling across the eastern Ozarks and into far southern Illinois. In this area, thermodynamic profiles become more favorable, with steepening mid-level lapse rates boosting MLCAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. However, the potential for widespread, vigorous convective development is limited by fleeting kinematics. As the upper jet core continues its eastward departure, deep layer shear around the time of potential initiation is only forecast to be about 20-25 kts. Consequently, portions of southern Illinois are outlooked for general thunderstorms today, but not for severe thunderstorms. Widespread thunderstorm activity is forecast to return Friday. This development is associated with subtle shortwave energy ejecting from the Central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley, occurring ahead of a more potent trough pivoting across the north-central U.S. A highly volatile environment is expected to evolve by Friday afternoon. The advection of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) ahead of a cold front will contribute to increasing mid-level lapse rates and overall buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding the initial storm mode. Some 00z CAMs indicated the potential for isolated supercells to develop well ahead of the cold front, primarily over southeast Iowa and far west-central Illinois late in the afternoon. This activity would be triggered by the subtle shortwave energy and occur near a diffuse dewpoint gradient or pseudo warm front. If such isolated activity develops juxtaposed with an increasing kinematic field (bulk shear of 35 kts), an all-hazards risk could ensue ahead of the main cold front. This is not the most likely scenario. It's important to note that the main area of convective initiation is expected to occur well to our west along the cold front. And, with the orientation of the deep-shear vectors becoming parallel to the main forcing, supercells that develop on the cold front are anticipated to gradually grow upscale into a linear MCS, which would enter our area later in the evening. As the linear MCS moves into west-central Illinois, a continued risk for severe weather is anticipated, lasting well into the overnight hours. Residual supercell structures may persist initially, driven by an increasing low- level jet that elongates the low-level hodograph and enhances 0-3 km SRH. However, consolidating cold pools amid strong low-level CAPE and shear, is expected to support a transition to a mature QLCS. This mature QLCS will likely feature embedded bowing segments and mesovorticies that pose a substantial risk for straight- line wind damage and brief tornadoes as it progresses eastward. A significant cooling trend is forecast to begin by Saturday as the cold front moves through and displaces the warm, moist air mass from the previous week. Temperatures are expected to exhibit a non-diurnal trend, with highs likely occurring earlier in the day. The latest NBM guidance raises concern for widespread frost, with low temperatures anticipated to fall into the 30s Saturday and Sunday nights. By the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to quickly rebound into the lower 70s. This warming trend is due to an upper-level pattern exhibiting some blockiness, allowing an amplified ridge axis to build into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low-level clouds will lift and break for sun prior to 18z behind a departing disturbance. VFR conditions will then dominate the remainder of this TAF cycle. Breezy west winds will diminish by sunset, becoming light and variable overnight into Friday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  752 FXUS63 KOAX 161058 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger on Thursday, particularly in northeast Nebraska. - Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All severe weather hazards will be possible. - Colder air arrives Friday night into this weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 The upper-level trough that resulted in severe weather across the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon is departing our region to the east. In its wake, surface high pressure is building into the region. As a result, quiet weather conditions consisting of light winds and clear skies have overspread the area. Excellent radiation cooling allows temperatures to fall into the 40s for a cool start to Thursday. As we go through the day on Thursday, our next weather system will approach the northern Rockies. This supports the return of lee troughing across the Great Plains. In response, increasing southerly to southwesterly winds overspread the region. Temperatures quickly warm into the 80s by afternoon as relative humidities crater into the teens and 20s across much of the region. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of northeast Nebraska through the afternoon into the early evening. By Friday, the aforementioned weather system will already be moving into the area. A fast moving cold front is forecast to be entering northeast Nebraska by Friday morning. This front may begin to slow with daytime heating, but the latest high- resolution guidance has the cold front reaching far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. With the timing of the front being a bit faster and potentially uncertain, the temperature forecast is also uncertain. Ahead of the front will remain warm, similar to Thursday, while much cooler air moves in behind the front. With the fast moving front, strong forcing for ascent should produce showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is a risk severe thunderstorms, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon. With the trend towards a faster front, this threat may be decreasing as a result. Showers may linger behind the front into the evening and overnight hours on Friday. If precipitation can hang around into Saturday morning, a few snowflakes may mix in as well. Thankfully, no impacts are expected with this. As eluded to above, much colder weather begins the weekend. Portions of northeast Nebraska may see a Spring freeze Saturday morning. Elsewhere, sees middle to upper 30s during the morning hours. Temperatures only warm into the 50s Saturday afternoon with this colder airmass. Temperatures plummet further by Sunday morning with a widespread freeze likely. This freeze is before our typical last Spring freeze date, but recent green-up of vegetation may result in vegetation damage despite this. Temperatures quickly rebound by Sunday afternoon as upper-level ridging builds in. Temperatures climb back into the 70s to near 80 heading into next week. All is quiet weather-wise, until the middle of next week, when our next potential weather maker is forecast to breakdown the ridge. Thunderstorms chances are likely to return with this system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with a few high clouds. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly with gusts of 20-25 kts starting around 17-18Z. Could see some low level wind shear late in the period at OMA and LNK with 50 kt southwest winds at 2000 ft AGL. A wind shift to westerly and then northwesterly looks to arrive at OFK very late in the period and will work through the rest of the area after 12Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...CA  348 FXUS64 KFWD 161059 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers and storms. - Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before temperatures begin to warm back up. - Additional chances for rain are expected the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Overall, no major changes were made to the forecast this morning, aside from putting in some patchy fog across our northwest where visibilities have sporadically dropped. One thing of note to add for this afternoon's forecast is the several-run trend in some of the CAMs that brings a couple of dryline-induced storms into our northwestern counties late this afternoon. I am not truly convinced of this due to the influx of subsident air overhead and the lack of a more focused lifting mechanism, unlike with yesterday where we had the shortwave provide the ascent. I cannot rule out convection along the dryline, but how much is quite uncertain. Added a silent 10% PoP for the low chances this afternoon and evening, and we will continue to keep an eye on any development this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A much quieter couple of days is in store for North and Central Texas as we head into the latter half of the week. The majority of our earlier storms have fully exited the region to the northeast, with a few lingering light showers in East Texas and a rogue storm still tracking east south of the I-20 corridor. This activity will continue to shift east as its upper-level shortwave swings through the Midwest. All remaining rain should come to an end later this morning as upper-level ridging builds into the region in the wake of the departing shortwave. With the dryline remaining to our west and subsident air increases overhead, expect this afternoon to be fairly warm in the 80s to near 90 in some spots. A deepening upper low currently located in the PAC-NW will traverse along the US-Canada border going into Friday, with shortwaves digging further south into the Plains as the system as a whole moves east. This will offset the ridge and send a strong cold front southward through the Plains on Friday. This front is not expected to impact the region until the overnight hours into Saturday, so Friday will be another warm day as we remain east of the dryline. A lee-side low is expected to develop and shift into the Panhandles by the afternoon, promoting increasingly breezy conditions with gusts to 25-35 mph in the afternoon. We may observe a few showers and storms in our northwest on Friday as increased lift out ahead of the incoming system spreads further east into Texas and Oklahoma, and have continued to advertise isolated chances during the day. Just how much convective initiation we will see is uncertain as most CAMs and medium resolution guidance have an elevated cap in place during the afternoon, which would ultimately inhibit storm development. However, we will need to remain cognizant as forecast soundings show efficient instability and shear along with steep lapse rates in the warm sector environment. All this being said: during the day most of us will likely remain dry, but if a storm is able to develop and break through the cap, it would have the potential to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The highest severe threat is currently displaced to our north closer to the triple point of the surface low and various surface boundaries/fronts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The front will move through North and Central Texas overnight into Saturday morning, bringing cooler conditions and gusty north winds. With ample moisture out ahead of the incoming boundary, showers and storms are expected to develop along and behind the front through Saturday as it advances south. While the overall severe threat with the frontal activity is low, the aforementioned pre-storm environment in the short term discussion above would allow for the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe storms along the front mainly capable of hail and wind gusts. Again, the higher severe threat remains out of our CWA to the north where better lift resides. Anything that lingers behind the front would be elevated in nature, with potentially some small hail falling out of any more robust cores. Post-frontal showers will gradually shift south of our area, eventually coming to an end by Sunday. Sunday morning is progged to be the coolest part of the forecast, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler post- frontal conditions in the 60s and 70s are expected to persist into this next week, though building ridging will call for a warm up towards the end of the forecast. Additional chances for rain continue to be present the first half of next week as shortwave disturbances travel across the Plains, but it is too early to go into specifics. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 MVFR cigs are beginning to develop and spread northward, though just east of the TAF sites as of 11Z. These cigs are expected to continue to develop and build in over the next several hours, eventually moving overtop the airports around 12-13Z. The westward extent is a bit more uncertain as latest HRRR and SREF guidance keeps lower probabilities for cigs at FTW/AFW, so have transitioned to a TEMPO group at those two sites. Otherwise, expect cigs to gradually lift and scatter out later this morning, becoming VFR by around noon. Southerly winds will prevail the rest of the period, with another deck of MVFR stratus once again expected to encroach the terminals near daybreak tomorrow. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 67 85 58 / 0 10 10 50 Waco 85 66 86 60 / 0 0 0 20 Paris 83 65 83 56 / 10 10 10 50 Denton 86 66 83 53 / 0 10 10 60 McKinney 85 66 83 56 / 0 10 10 60 Dallas 88 67 85 57 / 0 10 10 50 Terrell 85 66 85 60 / 0 10 10 40 Corsicana 87 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 87 66 88 62 / 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 88 65 85 53 / 10 10 10 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  745 FXUS64 KAMA 161059 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 -Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. -Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon. -Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at or below freezing for portions of the northern and western combined Panhandles. && .UPDATE... Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Expanded the Red Flag Warning to include Collingsworth County as overnight RH recoveries are very poor and stronger winds can occasional occur further to the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue throughout the day on Thursday. Mid level height gradient will become more steep throughout the day, which favors breezy conditions. Blend of latest 75th percentile data support synoptic pattern setting up on Thursday. With downslope winds out of the southwest winds of 20-30 mph advecting very dry airmass, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return throughout the day. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles to lower 90s in the southeast Texas Panhandle. For Friday, we will watch closely where surface boundaries set up by the afternoon hours. In terms of highest impacts for the far eastern Panhandles, if the main dryline can hold back across the eastern Texas Panhandle with the cold front moving more slowly into the northern Panhandles by Friday afternoon, there could be a narrow window for a strong to severe thunderstorm to develop with all hazards in play. Majority of model consensus has both the main cold front moving quickly south through the Panhandles and the dryline should move quickly east into western Oklahoma by around sunset on Friday. This bring overall rain chances for the far eastern Panhandles only topping out around 20 percent. Meanwhile for the remainder of the Panhandles, breezy and dry conditions continue with critical fire weather conditions expected. Current forecast for high temperatures on Friday will range from the mid 70s in the NW to lower 90s in the SE TX Panhandle. If cold front moves faster, these max temperatures will be adjusted to lower values. By Friday night, in the wake of the cold front, latest hi-res model and numerical guidance shows pronounced H850 CAA into the region. A Freeze Watch is in effect for most of the western and northern combined Panhandles where low temperatures will range from the upper 20s in the NW Panhandles to lower 40s in the SE TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Residual cooler temperatures continue throughout the coming weekend. High temperatures will generally remain near to below average, with the potential for Saturday night to feature locations that could flirt with overnight lows at or just below freezing. Temperatures will rebound next work week to above average once again for mid April with dry conditions expected to continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty from the southwest during the daytime hours at all terminals. These winds will weaken during the evening with gusts ceasing going into the overnight hours. This opens up the threat for speed low level wind shear at all terminals. The confidence of this occurring is highest at KGUY and KDHT so these sites have LLWS in the TAFs, KAMA the confidence is lower thus the LLWS has been excluded for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles. Min RH values both days will drop by the afternoon hours to as low as 6-8 percent. Southwest winds both days will be sustained at 20-30 mph with higher gusts expected throughout the day. Watching wind shift with cold front on Friday with winds shifting to northerly behind the front, taking place sometime between mid Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Max RFTI values of 6-7 are expected both Thursday and Friday. ERC percentile values ranging from the 80th to just over 90th is also expected through Friday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ001>020-317. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ001>003. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...98  922 FXUS64 KEPZ 161059 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 459 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Breezy again Today and windy Friday, and with very dry air will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A cool front, with breezy and gusty north and northeast winds moves in Friday night through Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. - For Sunday, gusty east winds bring in gulf moisture from Texas. This give the areas along, and est of the Rio Grande Valley, slight chances of rain on Sunday. - Monday, and much of next week, we see dry westerly flow move back in. Next week looks generally fair, with near seasonal temperatures, and breezy afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies/Great Basin on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. Boundary layer winds of 15-25kts are modeled for Thu with a modest pressure gradient across the CWA. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri ahead of a strong cold front coming down the Plains, giving us a more stout gradient. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. The Wind Advisory for the Sacs remains in effect for early Fri as 700mb winds reach 40-50kts with some mtn wave activity along east slopes. Since winds have trended down a bit for Thu, blowing dust is less of a concern, but Fri could still be dusty as winds shift more westerly. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that arrives early Sat, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds initially. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Early Sunday looks very breezy due to tight isobar packing, especially for west slopes where gusts to 40 mph can be seen, similar to what occurred a couple weeks ago. Low rain chances return as a result of the SE flow Sun, mainly E of the RGV. There remains disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out on Mon as weak ridging translates overhead. A large upper low moves into the West Coast by midweek, returning us to dry, southwest flow. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll become mild again late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds through the AM from W-NW, becoming breezy and occasionally gusty again this afternoon to 20-25kts from S-SW. No BLDU is expected. Skies start mostly SKC, with high clouds moving in from the west through the morning, becoming SCT-BKN250 during the day, then back to SKC-FEW250 this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. Much drier air has moved into the region on deep southwest and westerly flow, and this critically dry air will sit over the area through Saturday. As the next Pacific trough begins to move toward the Southwestern U.S. today, and slowly pass to our north tomorrow, fire weather conditions will be ramping up into Elevated, Near Critical, and even Critical. This will be due to the dry air in place, with the addition of breezy winds today, and windy and gusty winds on Friday. For today, our western areas will see the breezy conditions, with slightly higher wind speeds than our central and eastern areas. Tomorrow, it will be the eastern areas, and in particular the SACs, that see the strongest winds. Winds on Friday area expected to be stronger than today's winds, and thus, even with slight RH gains, the weather conditions will meet RFW criteria for all, or most, of our S Central and SW NM fire zones. Thus we have a fire Weather Watch in effect for Friday. Winds today will increase to the 15-20 mph range, with some higher gusts. Friday's winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30+ mph. The Sacramento mountains will see much stronger winds beginning tonight and peaking Friday morning, with sustained winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts 45 to 55 mph. Today's minRH will fall into the single-digits most areas, with lower teens in the mountains. Friday the minRH will be in the 10-20 percent range. Friday night, through Sunday morning, a stout cold front will push in in from the north, shifting winds from W to N, and keeping them at least breezy and gusty. The front will be dry. Saturday night, winds shift east and southeast and further increase, with a breezy to windy and gusty overnight along the international Border. These winds will bring in some gulf moisture, and allow for slight chances for rain showers Sunday along the southern lowlands and areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monday, we revert back to a deep westerly flow pattern, which will push the moisture back to our east, and draw in dry air once again. Most of next week looks fair and mild, with temperatures near seasonal averages, dry weather, and somewhat breezy afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 58 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 80 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 80 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 57 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 43 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 82 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 46 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 46 82 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 69 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 68 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 66 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 36 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 79 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 41 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 76 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 44 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird