643 

ACUS03 KWNS 161927
SWODY3
SPC AC 161926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.

Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$