835 ACUS11 KWNS 132012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132011 TXZ000-132215- Mesoscale Discussion 0402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portion of the Texas Big Bend into Edward Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132011Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of southwest Texas/northern Mexico, with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GLM Flash data depict isolated thunderstorm development across Stockton Plateau in southwest Texas and the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Surface temperatures in the upper-70s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F ahead of an approaching dryline are supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Straight, elongated hodographs amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km (per latest mesoanalysis) will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out should a supercell persist into the late evening hours as the nocturnal low-level jet strengths, supporting some increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the expected isolated storm coverage. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may be needed should the threat magnitude/coverage trend higher. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29510342 29870336 30300300 30960236 31600151 31820091 31710039 31270014 30950010 30420008 29750021 29000050 28940075 29090084 29380121 29670165 29730226 29610260 29410274 29350312 29510342 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  938 ACUS11 KWNS 132038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132038 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-132215- Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Indiana into extreme southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102... Valid 132038Z - 132215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat should continue with ongoing storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster of thunderstorms is persisting eastward amid a heated boundary layer (characterized by surface temperatures over 80 F), and modest vertical wind shear. Multiple wind damage reports, along with measured gusts around 50 kts have been received over the past few hours. MRMS MESH has also indicated the possibility of 1+ inch hail occurring with some of the stronger storms as well. Given 60+ F surface dewpoints and resultant 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE preceding the storms, a severe wind/hail threat should continue with these storms for at least a few more hours. Given adequate surface-based instability preceding supercell structures, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 40868754 41528721 42008657 42108576 41988511 41708475 41278480 41028514 40878580 40798641 40798713 40868754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  302 ACUS11 KWNS 132054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132053 KSZ000-132300- Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132053Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline across portions of eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Any storms that do develop will bring a threat for all hazards, with the main threat large to very large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts an area of deepening cumulus along a dryline in the vicinity of Wichita, Kansas. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F are contributing to 2000-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE within the warm sector. Steep mid-level lapse rates (evident on the 18Z LMN special sounding), elongated hodographs (effective bulk shear of 30-35+ kts per latest mesoanalysis), and ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone will support the potential for large to very large hail to 3+ inches in diameter with any storm that does develop. The tornado threat remains somewhat more conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support increasing low-level hodograph curvature and an accompanying increase in the tornado threat for any ongoing supercells. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the occurrence of convective initiation. Trends will be closely monitored and a watch may be needed should initiation appear imminent given the conditionally favorable environment. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37629505 37259551 37059638 37129741 37369761 37859758 38829716 39309681 39569631 39579562 39299513 38709495 38139494 37629505 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN