198 ACUS11 KWNS 132303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132302 MNZ000-140030- Mesoscale Discussion 0408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...South-central Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 132302Z - 140030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...With several discrete storms near the warm front, areas of south-central Minnesota will see an increase in tornado and very-large hail potential this evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have maintained a discrete mode in southern Minnesota late this afternoon. This environment has steeper mid-level lapse rates than farther east and is more closely tied to a subtle shortwave trough in water vapor imagery. Given the expected increase in low-level shear this evening, this area will become more favorable for tornadoes and very-large hail over the next 2-3 hours so long as a discrete storm mode can be maintained. Current VAD observations from KFSD and KARX already show large low-level hodographs that should improve over time. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD... LAT...LON 43729487 43959497 44179508 44329482 44589379 44559315 44329283 43899307 43739370 43729487 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN  535 ACUS11 KWNS 132305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132305 KSZ000-MOZ000-140000- Mesoscale Discussion 0409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132305Z - 140000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...There is the potential for a tornadic supercell this evening, but storm longevity is in question. DISCUSSION...Some supercell structures have been noted with a storm that formed earlier southwest of Emporia, though this storm has struggled some to maintain intensity. More recent attempts at updrafts south-through-west of this initial storm could lead to mergers and some potential for a sufficiently large/deep storm to take advantage of the downstream environment. If a sustained storm emerges over northeast KS the next 1-2 hours, downstream dewpoints in the upper 60s and enlarging low-level hodographs this evening will support tornado potential in addition to large hail. This area will continue to be monitored closely for a possible/small tornado watch. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38729617 39239576 39419533 39389485 39039461 38599480 38419525 38379582 38379608 38729617 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN