888 ACUS11 KWNS 140026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140025 MIZ000-140230- Mesoscale Discussion 0410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Portions central/southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140025Z - 140230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An increase in the low-level jet across parts of the lower Great Lakes region could initiate storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A lone cell has been ongoing west of Lansing along outflow from a convective cluster to the south and east. This storm has produced marginally severe hail thus far. Lapse rates at midlevels were quite steep on the observed DVN sounding (8.2 C/km) with diminishing values farther east (observed DTX showed 6.3 C/km). During the evening, the low-level jet is forecast to be focused over the Upper Midwest, including lower Michigan. There are already signs of ascent from northern Illinois into Lake Michigan. With some guidance showing additional, intensifying activity evolving over the next few hours, these areas are being monitored for a possible watch. Large hail and isolated damaging winds would be the primary threats. The tornado risk is not as clear as low-level profiles are expected to be neutrally stable at best. That said, low-level hodographs will be large and theta-e advection will slow nocturnal stabilization. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42228439 42038492 41978586 42088645 43128730 43938757 44268701 44328620 43238398 42608389 42228439 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  781 ACUS11 KWNS 140040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140039 MOZ000-KSZ000-140145- Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 140039Z - 140145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...A strong tornado is possible with the sustained supercell in Franklin Co. Kansas through 0100-0130z. DISCUSSION...A supercell has continued to get better organized after a few mergers, and is now a tornadic storm moving into a favorable environment. A strong tornado will be possible given the increasing low-level shear (250-300 0-1km SRH per TWX and EAX VWPs) in a sufficiently moist/buoyant environment this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38549463 38499514 38619529 38749527 38879498 38829463 38709459 38629459 38549463 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  512 ACUS11 KWNS 140057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140057 WIZ000-140230- Mesoscale Discussion 0412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...West-central into central Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 140057Z - 140230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes will continue into the evening as low-level shear increases. Furthermore, upscale growth of ongoing supercells will also lead to an increase threat for severe winds. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing west and northeast of Black River Falls. The high-precipitation character of these storms has become more apparent over the last couple of hours. The storm west of BRF shows a strong, but broad mesocyclone along with a strong rear flank downdraft signal on radar. With continued warm advection and upscale growth, an increasing threat for severe winds may develop as they progress east-southeast. To the east, cooler air is noted in surface observations which would suggest the strongest activity may turn slightly southward into greater buoyancy. The tornado threat will continue, however, as large low-level hodographs are evident on KARX and KMKX. Large hail could occur on an isolated basis, but storm mode will likely become less favorable with time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44189145 44659094 44909017 44698951 43988866 43698884 43508916 43488972 43859068 44189145 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN