029 ACUS11 KWNS 140215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140215 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140315- Mesoscale Discussion 0414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 140215Z - 140315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...A replacement for the 03Z expiring WW 103 is expected soon. Damaging winds will become more of threat with time, but the threat for tornadoes will still be a concern into the overnight given the strong low-level shear. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across the Upper Midwest has generally become more linear over the past few hours. The increase of the low-level jet (50+ kts observed on the KMKX VAD) suggests that buoyant inflow will be sustained as storms move south and east into the overnight period. The threat for damaging winds will likely be on the increase as linear segments continue to organize and low-level flow remains strong. The tornado threat has decreased somewhat due to a less favorable storm mode. Even so, the KMKX VAD has a notable 700+ 0-1 km SRH. The potential for tornadoes will still be concern both with QLCS circulations and any discrete storms that may form ahead of the linear segments. WW 103 is set to expire at 03Z and a replacement watch will need to be issued soon. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43409324 44069262 44539011 44488961 43858785 42638782 42648814 42668917 42659015 43409324 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  880 ACUS11 KWNS 140246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140246 MOZ000-140415- Mesoscale Discussion 0415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 140246Z - 140415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...Occasional wind damage and large hail threat may persist until 05-06z across central Missouri, but the tornado threat is slowly diminishing and a new downstream watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The earlier supercells have undergone cell interactions and modest upscale growth into a cluster with a more expansive cold pool/outflow. A discrete supercell persists to the south in Henry Co. MO, though this storm should be slowly absorbed into the southeast flank of the cluster. Thus, the more probable outcome will be for gradual mergers and development atop the cold pool to allow a storm cluster to persist for another few hours while spreading eastward into central MO. Occasional damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the primary threats, though an isolated/brief tornado will still be possible with embedded circulations along the leading edge of the cold pool, and as the remnant supercell interacts with the cold pool. ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38429263 38359370 38579399 39099398 39279369 39419284 39299241 38859235 38429263 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN