426 ACUS11 KWNS 141650 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141650 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-141915- Mesoscale Discussion 0418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141650Z - 141915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually increase across the Northeast through the afternoon. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated severe hail and some tornado threat is also possible. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor and mosaic radar imagery depict a convectively augmented low-amplitude impulse advancing eastward across parts of Ontario into Quebec. As this feature continues eastward, an accompanying weak surface cyclone/frontal wave will evolve eastward along an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary front extending across northern NY/VT/NH this afternoon. Preceding the midlevel impulse and frontal wave, widely scattered thunderstorms should continue spreading/developing eastward across western/central NY, as well as along the quasi-stationary boundary farther north. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints and increasing low-level warm advection will destabilize the downstream air mass, yielding a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity with eastward extent this afternoon. Despite only weak to locally moderate surface-based buoyancy, ample deep-layer shear (around 40 kt of effective shear) will promote a mix of organized clusters/line segments and a couple supercell structures (especially initially). The primary risk will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated severe hail and perhaps some tornado risk will also be possible (especially with any supercells that evolve). Given fairly nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent (especially with southward extent), overall storm coverage (and to some extent intensity) is a bit uncertain. While substantial cloud coverage farther north along the quasi-stationary boundary will limit destabilization compared to areas farther south, enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary will conditionally support a risk of organized clusters/supercells. Any storms that can become surface-based here will be capable of damaging wind gusts and potentially a locally greater tornado risk, though this is uncertain. Despite some uncertainty on timing and overall convective evolution, the overall severe risk will gradually increase from west to east into this afternoon, and a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 41577388 41397517 41457582 41767633 42317640 42827628 43317598 43867548 44327462 44567415 44687353 44657255 44447186 44097157 43617159 43227175 42677215 42237271 41577388 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN