648 ACUS11 KWNS 141803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141803 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141930- Mesoscale Discussion 0420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141803Z - 141930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Multiple damaging gusts may accompany an MCS over the next few hours. While the efficiency in severe gust production is in question, convective trends will be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection has developed and become established immediately ahead of an eastward tracking MCV. This MCS will track eastward along a corridor of modest deep-layer shear and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the relatively lower-end buoyancy/shear parameter space, it is not clear how efficient the MCS will be at producing damaging or especially severe gusts. However, KCLE cross-sectional storm relative velocity data does depict weak descending rear-inflow features, and the deep-layer shear vector is oriented roughly normal to the orientation of the leading line. As such, some damaging (and perhaps severe) gust potential exists. There is also a chance for an instance or two of hail. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance, but the severe threat may be too isolated to warrant an issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40517981 40378100 40378187 40518238 40698264 40898287 41088295 41298279 41428234 41808096 41898011 41767919 41377898 40827929 40517981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  328 ACUS11 KWNS 141824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141824 TXZ000-142100- Mesoscale Discussion 0421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau into Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141824Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a dryline this afternoon will pose a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. A watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and GLM Flash data indicate ongoing thunderstorm development across the Chisos Mountains within the Texas Big Bend region. Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a dryline across much of West Texas and across the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the low/mid-80s F and dewpoints in the mid-60s F underneath steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater). Effective bulk shear of 35-45+ kts and straight, elongated hodographs will support supercells (both left- and right-moving) capable of large to very large hail of 2-3+ inches in diameter and severe wind gusts. A gradually strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will likely support at least some increase in the tornado threat later this evening, especially with any persistent, discrete supercell(s); however, the core of the low-level jet is forecast to be displaced farther to the northeast. Thus, the magnitude of the tornado threat remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Regardless, watch issuance will likely be needed by 21z. With time, some gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with ongoing storms, with an associated increase in the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29240278 29050292 28950320 29200328 29920317 31950219 32480174 32990115 33240047 33219980 33049926 32809907 32549902 31809967 31200022 30590082 30160132 29880156 29650193 29700241 29510262 29240278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN  337 ACUS11 KWNS 141855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141855 INZ000-ILZ000-142100- Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central IL into northern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141855Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk. While confidence in overall storm development/coverage and evolution remains uncertain, a watch issuance is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the vicinity of a remnant/increasingly diffuse outflow boundary draped across parts of northern/central IL, weak low-level warm advection is promoting gradually deepening cumulus and isolated convective initiation in central IL. Based on the motion of these echoes and character of the cumulus on day cloud phase imagery, this activity may be rooted above the boundary layer. Nevertheless, temperatures climbing into the lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints will continue to erode inhibition at the base of the EML and could eventually support a transition to surface-based updrafts. If this were to occur, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) would initially favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- with a risk of very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will result in enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and an increasing supercell-tornado risk. With all that said, the limited/nebulous synoptic and mesoscale ascent casts uncertainty on storm development/coverage and overall evolution -- especially given lingering inhibition. Convective and environmental trends are being monitored, and a watch issuance is possible this afternoon. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39088910 39288995 39649033 40049057 40599064 41049034 41428980 41578728 41458650 41168587 40298545 39698564 39418603 39088910 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN