347 ACUS11 KWNS 141939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141939 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142215- Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 141939Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms expected to develop along a dryline this afternoon will bring the potential for all severe hazards. A Tornado Watch will be needed by 21z. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a dryline extending from eastern Kansas southwestward into northwest Oklahoma and the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft (40-50+ kts at 4-5 km AGL per regional VWPs) and modest ascent preceding an approaching upper-level trough will overspread the warm sector through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates (per the 12Z OUN/FWD/MAF soundings) atop surface temperatures in the low-80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper-60s F are supporting strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3000+ J/kg) ahead of the dryline, with convective initiation expected within the next 1-2 hours as convective temperatures are reached. 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest mesoanalysis) will support initial supercells, with very large to giant hail (up to 3-4 inches in diameter) likely given the aforementioned steep mid-level lapse rates, ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone, and elongated hodographs. A few tornadoes (some potentially strong) are also possible, especially with any supercells that can remain largely discrete into the evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will yield enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. A Tornado Watch will be needed by 21z to cover this threat. Expectation is then for upscale growth to gradually occur with time this evening, with a transition toward severe wind gusts as the primary threat. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34149793 33619861 33429920 33429958 33719984 34359992 34969976 35809926 36689849 37499774 38069716 38309660 38309618 38179544 37919519 37439517 36679571 35419683 34829735 34149793 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN  639 ACUS11 KWNS 141954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141953 IAZ000-NEZ000-142200- Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central and eastern Nebraska into extreme western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141953Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon across portions of south-central Nebraska along a stationary boundary, with a conditional threat for large hail and severe wind gusts with any storm that can develop. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a stationary boundary extending northeast to southwest across eastern/south-central Nebraska, with a surface low analyzed near OMA. A corridor of higher surface dewpoints (low-to-mid 50s F) located along the cool side of this boundary is contributing to 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE, with forecast soundings and mesoanalysis depicting eroding MLCIN as surface temperatures continue to warm. Despite only weak available buoyancy, strong southwesterly flow aloft (40+ kt at 3 km AGL per the UEX VWP) atop northeasterly surface flow on the cool side of the surface boundary is supporting strong effective bulk shear of 50-60 kts. Elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates (per the 18z OAX observed sounding) will support a conditional threat for isolated large hail with any storm that is able to develop, with drier boundary layer profiles immediately south of the surface boundary (DCAPE of 800-1000+ J/kg) also supporting some potential for strong to occasionally severe wind gusts. This conditional severe risk will gradually decrease with time this evening owing to low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Given the expectation for storm coverage and threat magnitude to remain limited should a storm even develop, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40829690 40519813 40259897 40059957 40099990 40219996 40379976 40609948 40999900 41529800 41969701 41949630 41669589 41239583 41079603 40859677 40829690 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN