879 ACUS11 KWNS 142307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142307 WIZ000-150000- Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 109... Valid 142307Z - 150000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes (possibly strong) and destructive hail will continue with two supercells moving towards the Milwaukee metro region. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are tracking eastward toward Milwaukee and nearby suburbs. These supercells have a history of producing large to very-large hail in Madison. The KMKX VAD shows ample low-level shear and near 50 kts of 0-6 km shear. With steep mid-level lapse rates, large to very-large hail will remain possible. The tornado threat is greatest with the lead supercell with KMKX showing periodic increases in low-level inflow/organization. Tornadoes, potentially strong, are also possible. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX... LAT...LON 43078912 43328901 43408795 43178773 42988780 42978895 43078912 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN  641 ACUS11 KWNS 142336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142336 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-150130- Mesoscale Discussion 0431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Iowa into south-central Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 109... Valid 142336Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes and large/very-large hail remain possible this evening, particularly with discrete supercell elements. The greatest tornado threat this evening will likely be in far eastern Iowa and northern Illinois where the low-level jet will be strongest. DISCUSSION...Rotation remains evident on local radar velocity data with two supercells in southwest Wisconsin and east-central Iowa. The KDVN VAD shows enlarged hodographs and 0-3 SRH approaching 500 m2/s2. Additional strengthening of the low-level jet is expected, especially in far eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. The KDVN observed sounding from 21Z also showed a near 8 C/km mid-level lapse rate and 52 kts of effective shear. Large to very-large hail will remain possible with any supercell. The tornado threat will similarly be contingent on maintaining a discrete storm mode. The southern supercell will be moving into the better low-level shear environment with time. A strong tornado would be possible with any discrete storm within that environment. Farther north into southern Wisconsin, another round of severe storms is expected in the next 2-3 hours. Tornadoes and large/very-large hail will also be possible, though storm interaction are more likely here as well as potential impacts from earlier supercell outflow. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 41909044 41929088 41979129 42179139 42499126 43169041 43298946 43278936 42378883 42008898 41898968 41909044 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN  854 ACUS11 KWNS 142346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142346 TXZ000-150115- Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...The Big Country and Edwards Plateau of Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111... Valid 142346Z - 150115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111 continues. SUMMARY...Storm coverage in WW #111 will likely be limited the remainder of the evening. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery and surface observations show widespread clouds east of a dryline, with relatively cool surface temperatures mostly in the the 70s. Thunderstorms have developed recently along the retreating dryline just southwest of Midland. However, these storms may struggle to persist, and new storm development will be limited as a result of lingering convective inhibition this evening from the Edwards Plateau into the Big Country. Farther south, there is some potential for a supercell to cross the Rio Grande and make it into Val Verde Co. (near Del Rio) 00-01z, with an attendant threat for large hail and severe outflow gusts. Given the questions about storm intensity/persistence across much of WW #111, some/most of the watch could be removed near and after 01z. ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31360266 33110116 33650032 33319985 32980005 32290058 31560129 30780134 29650016 29190017 29180075 29770143 30620258 31360266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN