344 ACUS11 KWNS 150028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150028 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150230- Mesoscale Discussion 0433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150028Z - 150230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur along a cold front sagging into parts of NE/KS/IA/MO. A few severe thunderstorms may occur with large hail being the main concern. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across parts of NE/IA. Meanwhile, strengthening southwesterly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now as far north as northern MO/central KS. The leading edge of the richer moisture is expected to begin interacting with the approaching cold front in the next couple of hours, leading to rapid thunderstorm development. Sufficient shear profiles will promote a risk of organized multicell and occasional supercell structures, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon for this activity. ..Hart.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39979789 40999551 41479305 41249224 40669221 40359314 39799544 39479698 39369767 39629799 39979789 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  816 ACUS11 KWNS 150031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150031 MIZ000-150130- Mesoscale Discussion 0434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Central/southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150031Z - 150130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Though a transition to primarily a linear storm mode is expected, all severe hazards are possible this evening in central/southern Lower Michigan. A watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The threat for severe storms will spread into parts of Lower Michigan within the next couple of hours. The primary area of concern should remain south of a warm front across central Lower Michigan. A cluster of storms has evolved out of two supercells in southeastern Wisconsin and will track across Lake Michigan. Damaging winds will likely be a concern with this activity. Additional storms may form in the warm advection regime ahead of that linear cluster. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 kts of 0-6 km shear on the KGRR VAD, large hail will remain a concern with the stronger, discrete elements. The risk for tornadoes is not as clear given the linear modes expected, though the GRR VAD also shows near 400 m2/s2 0-3 SRH. A watch will likely be needed soon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42438734 42848741 43478729 44138705 44478628 44258468 43628374 42668364 42078395 41888484 41938618 42218714 42438734 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  839 ACUS11 KWNS 150053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150053 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150230- Mesoscale Discussion 0435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Northwest Texas to southern KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 110... Valid 150053Z - 150230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...The stronger storms with wind/hail are expected from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma through 02z, while more isolated storm development could occur along the retreating dryline into south central Kansas. DISCUSSION...Widespread convection and rain-cooled air, in addition to messy convective modes and storm interference, have largely limited the severe threat to occasional severe gusts and isolated large hail this evening from northwest TX into southwest OK. There will still be the potential for additional severe storms along the edge of the rain-cooled air along the I-44 corridor near and northeast of Wichita Falls through 02z. The 00z OUN and FWD soundings still show weak convective inhibition which will increase slowly this evening with gradual surface cooling. Still, lingering moderate buoyancy and a modest increase in low-level shear through late evening could support a supercell and conditional tornado threat along the rain-cooled boundary. Otherwise, damaging winds and isolated large hail will be the main threats. The presence of persistent anvil rain casts doubt on the short-term severe threat north of I-44 into central OK. Farther north, there have been recent attempts at deep convection along the retreating dryline near the OK/KS border, though the persistence of this convection is in question. If a sustained storm does manage to form into southern KS, the environment will favor isolated large hail and a conditional tornado threat. ..Thompson.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 34729725 34199767 33949814 33749873 33819897 34359904 34689845 35069821 35739839 37069862 37649815 38009753 37959715 37489703 36529727 35829709 35069712 34729725 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN