143 ACUS11 KWNS 150403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150403 MIZ000-150500- Mesoscale Discussion 0440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 113... Valid 150403Z - 150500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for embedded tornadoes and swaths of wind damage will persist across southern and southeastern Lower Michigan through 05-06z. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery suggests the formation of a larger MCV/comma head structure in southeast Lower MI with persistent convection. Embedded mesovortices have been observed within the comma head, and a swath of likely damaging winds extends south of the comma head/MCV. The tornado and wind threat are likely to persist for the next couple of hours while the convection develops east-southeastward along the buoyancy gradient, in a zone of strong low-level flow/shear. Farther west into southwest Lower MI, the threat for mesovortices/tornadoes will persist where a N-S bowing segment moves east-southeastward and intersects a more E-W outflow segment near the borders of Barry/Eaton and Kalamazoo/Calhoun Counties. ..Thompson.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43358380 43418329 43128273 42518295 42198333 41898444 41978592 42168620 42398591 42838429 43358380 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  220 ACUS11 KWNS 150436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150436 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-150600- Mesoscale Discussion 0441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas across southern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115... Valid 150436Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for occasional large hail and isolated wind damage will continue along a stalled front for the next couple of hours, with additional storm development expected into eastern Iowa. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed rapidly along a stalled front in the past hour, aided by low-level warm advection. The front is expected to move little the next few hours and will provide a focus for additional storm development into eastern IA (where a new severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued). Storms will likely remain confined to the front and will pose a threat for large hail with the initial updrafts, and isolated wind damage as storm coverage increases and small bowing segments become possible along the boundary. A brief tornado may also occur with bowing segments interacting with the front. Once storms become widespread, storm intensity will decrease gradually and the severe threat will begin to wane close to watch expiration time at 07z. ..Thompson.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40499459 40009585 39719713 39749753 40259727 40889540 41509379 41949202 42149067 42069010 41798988 41519005 41329189 41009326 40499459 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  907 ACUS11 KWNS 150455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150455 OHZ000-MIZ000-150600- Mesoscale Discussion 0442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150455Z - 150600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage may spread into northwest OH, just southeast of WW #113. However, the need for a new watch into OH is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCS with bowing segments and a comma head/MCV structure continues across southeast Lower MI. The storms are moving southeastward and will reach the edge of WW #113 near and after 06z. The downstream environment is less buoyant into OH, in the wake of earlier convection, but there is also strong southwest flow just off the surface to advect moisture northeastward. It is not clear if the storms will maintain severity into northwest OH, but this area will be monitored for a small watch after 06z. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41278202 41148239 41118309 41258424 41418478 41638471 41788379 41938269 41828218 41528180 41278202 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH