460 ACUS11 KWNS 150612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150612 OHZ000-MIZ000-150745- Mesoscale Discussion 0443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast MI and northern OH Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 113...118... Valid 150612Z - 150745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 113, 118 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible, though some weakening is expected with time. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS is moving across southeast MI and far northern IN/northwest OH early this morning. Parts of the QLCS are oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow, which is less favorable for severe potential due to undercutting outflow. However, the more north-south oriented segment approaching Detroit shows more potential for damaging wind and embedded mesovortices in the short term, as indicated by a recent 55 kt gust at KYIP. With decreasing MLCAPE and increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, longevity of the severe threat with this ongoing QLCS may be relatively limited. Strong low-level southwesterly flow (as noted on regional VWPs) may allow for sufficient moistening/destabilization across parts of northwest and north-central OH, where WW 318 was recently issued. Some threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado remains possible in this area through around 08-09 UTC, before a more definitive weakening trend is expected. ..Dean.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41228229 41078395 41138450 41328462 41678471 41758396 42488332 42648263 42588202 42358166 42048163 41728186 41228229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  851 ACUS11 KWNS 150647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150647 ILZ000-IAZ000-150815- Mesoscale Discussion 0444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...Southern IA into far northwest IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...117... Valid 150647Z - 150815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115, 117 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist overnight, though an eventual weakening trend is expected. DISCUSSION...Within an extensive area of convection across Iowa, a small north-south oriented line segment has evolved south of Des Moines. This line segment earlier produced a gust of 52 kt at Creston, IA, and remains relatively vigorous within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. A threat for locally damaging wind and possibly marginal hail could continue in the short term, before increasing MLCINH eventually leads to a weakening trend and/or a tendency for outflow to surge ahead of convection with time. A marginal severe threat could persist across eastern portions of WW 115 after its 07 UTC expiration, but this watch may be allowed to expire unless a short-term uptick occurs. An isolated severe threat remains evident across downstream WW 117, but this watch may eventually be cancelled early if a definitive weakening trend is observed. ..Dean/Smith.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41429342 41649127 41679054 41709018 41359023 40929072 40699161 40599320 40729360 40749374 40909358 41429342 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN