505 ACUS11 KWNS 151837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151837 OKZ000-TXZ000-152000- Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Oklahoma into northern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151837Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase through the afternoon. Severe wind and hail appear to be the main threats, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Given the expected coverage of severe, a WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been noted over northeast OK and north-central TX, within a low-level WAA regime ahead of a dryline, which is located across western OK and is surging eastward. Current mesoanalysis shows a mid-level trough overspreading the southern Plains, providing deep-layer ascent, so more widespread convection should develop within the next few hours. Ahead of the dryline, from central OK into northern TX, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per 18Z mesoanalysis). The overspreading of the mid-level trough is supporting elongated, mainly straight hodographs with minimal low-level curvature (per the 18Z OUN observed sounding). Furthermore the upper-level flow is oriented roughly parallel to the dryline. Given that the low-level jet is shifting from the southern Plains into the Ozarks, the current thinking is that mixed modes of transient supercells and bowing segments will develop along and ahead of the dryline over the next few hours. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with the strongest, longest-lived storms. Mesovortices north of the apex of bowing segments, as well as any long-lived supercells, may pose a tornado threat, though the confidence in tornado potential is overall lower. Nonetheless, the overall severe coverage is expected to be widespread enough to warrant a WW issuance, which is likely in the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33069910 35309757 36699635 36919569 36929520 36489484 35739487 34719543 33769645 33299720 32999785 32859839 33069910 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  451 ACUS11 KWNS 151851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151850 IAZ000-152015- Mesoscale Discussion 0448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119... Valid 151850Z - 152015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119 continues. SUMMARY...Storms may be transitioning to surface-based, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk. Very large hail also remains possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, previously elevated supercell continues tracking along the composite outflow/stationary boundary in central IA. Ahead of this storm, temperatures are warming into the upper 60s to near 70 amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints, which may yield a transition to surface-based inflow. Visible satellite imagery corroborates this, as billow clouds are transitioning to HCRs along/immediately south of the boundary. This transition to surface-based storms should favor an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk -- given locally boosted SRH along/immediately south of the boundary. Very large hail also remains a concern with supercells. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX... LAT...LON 41559377 41709411 42069419 42319407 42449369 42459280 42299255 41929250 41649277 41559377 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN