797 ACUS11 KWNS 151914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151914 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-152115- Mesoscale Discussion 0449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of eastern KS...western/central MO...and far southern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151914Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next few hours. The primary concerns are severe wind gusts and large hail, though a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A watch issuance is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus along/immediately east of a cold front moving into eastern KS. Over the next few hours, thunderstorms should increase in coverage along the eastward-moving front -- aided by increasing large-scale ascent preceding an approaching midlevel trough. The SGF 18Z sounding sampled a moist air mass with relatively steep lapse rates, and continued diurnal heating will further destabilize the pre-frontal air mass (around 2500 MLCAPE expected). The combination of this instability and 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will favor convective organization. Initially, a long/mostly straight hodograph (with a pronounced veer-back signature) could favor splitting supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. However, with storm motions and deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the eastward-moving front and the expectation for robust convective outflow/clustering, upscale growth is expected. This would promote an increasing risk of scattered damaging winds. While less certain (especially given the mode), a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out, given a well-established low-level jet and associated enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37789644 38429595 39349550 40159523 40919480 41169430 41259365 41189281 41019237 40669209 40019217 39149258 37919333 37159429 37079521 37179608 37409644 37789644 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN  524 ACUS11 KWNS 151938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151938 TXZ000-152215- Mesoscale Discussion 0450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151938Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany some of the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an eastward progressing dryline, to the west of a low-level WAA regime contaminated by clouds, a CU field is rapidly developing given ample insolation. Deep-layer ascent is rather weak south of the Red River, but modest flow above 500 mb is resulting in 40-50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear. When considering 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, multicells and perhaps transient supercells are possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. The overall coverage of severe wind and hail should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29620181 32640043 33199961 33219913 32949874 32329880 31469922 30479986 29850036 29410077 29350116 29620181 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN