NZUS99 KABR 150751
WRKSTD

High clouds continue to track southeast as the CWA remains on the
downstream side of a ridge that is currently over the northern
Rockies into Canada. Temperatures are much warmer than last night
ranging in the teens to lower 20s, with temps in the upper 20s along
the eastern slopes of the Coteau due to the warmer winds. Speaking
of, the highest wind gusts recorded with this downslope event have
been 54 mph at Altamont and 64 mph at Peever just before midnight
per SDDOT.

A weak surface trough over the area will continue to track eastward
into MN today as the region lies between this exiting wave and
stronger trough, with the axis setting up over the western Dakotas
and northwestward this evening, south of a low/clipper over Alberta.
Models have a good handle that through the overnight hours, this
clipper will deepen as it tracks eastward across Canada with the
surface trough tracking eastward over the Dakotas. By 12Z, the
clipper will further intensify (984mb!) as it is forecast to be over
Manitoba at this time, with the axis of the surface trough extending
through the eastern Dakotas and southward through the central
Plains. Its fropa will track northwest to southeast over the CWA
through the day on Tuesday and exiting the southeastern CWA by
Tuesday afternoon/evening as northwest flow will be dominant. Some
of the CAMs (HRRR/RAP/NamNest) do try to show a little bit of precip
with the fropa as it tracks southeast over the CWA Tuesday morning,
however, timing and placement do vary between these models with
others not indicating much in the form of precip, so low confidence
exists as of now. Latest NBM has pops 5% or less.

With winds out the south/southwest tonight, and you know this means,
another round of gusty downsloping winds off the Coteau between ~06-
12Z. NAM sounding at Peever indicates 850/925mb winds between 20-
30kts at 06z, increasing to 35-45kts through 12Z. Both HREF/NBM
indicates downsloping wind gusts of 30 to potentially 40 mph with
prob of gusts>45 both at 0%. With ongoing steep pressure gradients
and gustier winds aloft associated with this low, winds will
increase widespread by late Tuesday morning through the midday with
HREF indicating gusts of 35-45mph over the CWA with the possibility
of 50mph gusts over the Leola Hills/Coteau as 850mb winds will range
between 50-60kts at this time! Probability of surface wind
gusts>45mph is 55-85% over central SD/Coteau and prob of 50 is 85%
over the Leola Hills per HREF. However, Deterministic NBM is not as
excited with 45% or less chance of winds over 45 mph. To get the
gusts of HREF, it is more of NBM75th and 90th. So a bit of a
discrepancy therefore leading to lower confidence as of now.
However, NBM potential MAX wind gusts both NBM4.3/5 are pretty close
(difference of 0 to 3kts at any one location) does indicate gusts of
45-55kts over north central, Leola Hills, and Coteau. Will let the
day shift take a closer look with the next model run and determine
if they need to be increased.

Warmer air at 925mb is expected today giving us a nice warmup from
the arctic blast we dealt with. Highs for day will range in the 30s
to the mid 40s with overnight lows in the teens and 20s. Highs for
Tuesday is forecast to top out in the 40s to even 50 over south
central SD!