NZUS97 KILN 131714
WRKAFD

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Wind Warning expanded a bit farther south. Broke out next
week's temperatures from the weather expected Sun through Mon
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy conditions will develop this morning and continue through
the rest of the day. The highest gusts will occur mid morning
through mid afternoon, especially near/north of I-70, where gusts
to around 60 mph will be possible.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be
expected Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.
The precipitation will transition to a rain-snow mix Monday morning,
with some snow showers lingering into Monday afternoon.

3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and
Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3)

A vigorous cold front will be crossing the CWA early Monday. Mon
high temps will = Sun night lows, with falling readings through the
day. Columbus and eastern CWA are expected to be in the warm sector
ahead of this front for a part of the morning, but this will be
short-lived with a similar temperature trend - falling through the
day but starting about 4-5 deg warmer than western CWA and DAY/CVG
metro areas. There remains some bit of uncertainty in the numerical
guidance, dependent on the time of the fropa. High end temps (again
in the morning) are capped at 51-DAY, 47-CVG, and upper 50s-CMH. Low
end values are near 30 for all metro areas. Forecast (NBM solution)
looks to be favoring a slightly quicker passage and morning temps
about 2 deg lower than forecast. The uncertainty looks to be due to
outlying models being incorporated into the NBM forecast, which is a
known feature and one of the pitfalls of using an ensemble forecast.

Deep nw flow behind the front will bring in a reinforcing shot of
cold air. Lows Mon and Tues nights will be in the teens, with
daytime highs Mon only reaching the upper 20s. Wed should reach into
the mid 40s, but again this is the tail end of the forecast and the
most likely to be adjusted as time moves forward.

&&