NZUS01 KLMK 111610 RRA
WRKMES

Over the last hour or so we've seen an uptick in convection along
the old convective boundary across our northern Indiana counties. It
appears that some recovery of the atmosphere has occurred in this
area with core attempting to go up over Scott/Jefferson counties in
southern Indiana.  The Jefferson county IN cell has shown some
supercellular characteristics.  Mid-level lapse rates have decreased
quite a bit in the wake of earlier convection, with rates around 5.5
C/km.  This is likely limiting the ongoing convection to an extent.

Looking to the west, mid-level height falls with a shortwave
approaching combined with some modest boundary layer heating may
lead to an increase in convection later this afternoon.  Surface
heating across central Kentucky and eastern KY has been pretty good
thus far this morning with partly to mostly sunny skies.  However,
and expansive deck of clouds is approaching the I-65 corridor from
the west and will overspread the region over the next several hours
which will likely start to mute additional heating across the region.

In the near term, highest risk of severe weather will be found
across our southern Indiana counties.  The overall flow has become
quite veered over the past few hours, but an increase in the 850
flow may produce enough low-level shear and curved hodographs to
support an isolated tornado risk.  After collab with SPC, a new
tornado watch has been issued for portions of southern Indiana and
far northern Kentucky through the afternoon hours.

Further development out over southern IL should continue to
intensify over the next few hours, though downstream instability
across southwest IN and into northwest KY remains uncertain.
However, a band of convection looks to move through southwest IN and
into north-central KY later this afternoon/evening.

Further to south, a band of convection is developing across western
TN and this activity looks to spread east into middle TN while and
should increase in intensity and areal coverage.  It appears that
convection should grow northeastward into south-central Kentucky
through the afternoon.  Degree of instability and further heating
remain uncertain as plentiful low-level moisture within the boundary
layer have lead to widespread stratus/stratocu development.  Storms
that do develop look to be linear in nature with a damaging wind
threat becoming possible.  If cells down there were to become
discrete, then isolated large hail and tornadoes would be possible.