NZUS43 KTOP 121816
WRKTOP

130 PM Mar 12 2026

Strong west-northwest mid level flow was noted across the western
and central CONUS. A deep lee surface trough across eastern
CO/western KS, combined with deep mixing, was causing south-
southwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gust of 40 to near 50 MPH. The
strong surface winds and gusts will continue through the afternoon
hours for much of the central and northern counties of the CWA.
Therefore, the wind advisory will continue through 7 PM.


This evening, the low-level jet will increase to around 50 KTS
across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. The stronger low-
level jet of 60 KTS will develop northeast of the CWA across east
central KS and western MO. At this time it looks as if wind gusts of
35 to 40 KTS may develop across the northeast counties through the
evening hours but there is some question to how widespread the
stronger wind gusts will be across the northeast counties. Not sure
if we will keep the dry adiabatic lapse rates after sunset which may
constrain momentum transfers down to the surface. The evening shift
will need to monitor the LLJ and how much parcel momentum transfer
will occur to get wind gusts above 45 MPH. There is a chance that a
wind advisory may be needed for the eastern and north central CWA
counties this evening, once the wind advisory for the central and
western counties expire.

The weak surface front will become stationary along the OK?KS border
on Friday. night temperatures on Friday will reach the lower 60s
north to mid 60s south.

Saturday, the mid level flow will become zonal and a lee surface
trough will deepen across western NE/eastern CO. The front across
northern OK will undergo frontolysis as it shift north. Winds will
become southeast and southerly. Wind speeds will increase during the
late afternoon and evening to 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts. Highs
will warm into the mid to upper 70s across the western counties with
mid 70s elsewhere across the CWA.


Big changes are in store for the second half of the weekend. An H5
trough across the Pacific northwest will dig Southeast across the
Plains and amplify Sunday. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
Plains will send modified arctic air southward across the central
and southern Plains. Highs on Sunday will be during the 12Z-15Z time
period as the front rapidly shifts southward across the CWA.
Temperatures may start out in the lower to mid 40s northwest and mid
50s to around 60s south but temperatures will fall through the 30s
into the mid to upper 20s northwest and through the 40s into the mid
30s across the remainder of the CWA. Gusty northwest winds will make
it feel even colder.  The stronger ascent ahead of the amplifying
trough will be northeast and east of the CWA but there may be enough
ascent and frontogenesis for rainshowers that will become mix with
and change over to snow showers through the afternoon hours into the
early evening before ending. At this time any snow accumulations
will be a dusting on grassy surface. Road surface temperatures will
be warm.

If you have any tender plants outdoors they will need to be taken in
Sunday night, since overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper
teens. Monday will continue to be cold as the center of the surface
ridge of high pressure shifts southeast across eastern KS into the
lower MS River Valley. Highs across the eastern counties will only
reach the mid to upper 30s. Highs in the western counties will be
warmer with highs in the mid to upper 40s.


Tuesday through Thursday, expect a warming trend as an H5 ridge
across the western US slowly shifts east towards the high Plains.
The mid level flow will back from the north-norwest to the west
northwest and surface winds will become southerly. Highs Tuesday
will warm into the mid 50s  to lower 60s southwest, highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower 70s east to upper 70s west, and by
Thursday, highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.