FXUS64 KAMA 161059
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
559 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

-Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
 Thursday and Friday for the majority of the combined Panhandles.

-Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may form in the far
 eastern combined Panhandles on Friday afternoon.

-Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night may drop to at
 or below freezing for portions of the northern and western
 combined Panhandles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Expanded the Red Flag Warning to include Collingsworth County as
overnight RH recoveries are very poor and stronger winds can
occasional occur further to the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue throughout the
day on Thursday. Mid level height gradient will become more steep
throughout the day, which favors breezy conditions. Blend of
latest 75th percentile data support synoptic pattern setting up on
Thursday. With downslope winds out of the southwest winds of
20-30 mph advecting very dry airmass, critical fire weather
conditions are expected to return throughout the day. High
temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 80s in the NW
Panhandles to lower 90s in the southeast Texas Panhandle.

For Friday, we will watch closely where surface boundaries set up
by the afternoon hours. In terms of highest impacts for the far
eastern Panhandles, if the main dryline can hold back across the
eastern Texas Panhandle with the cold front moving more slowly
into the northern Panhandles by Friday afternoon, there could be a
narrow window for a strong to severe thunderstorm to develop with
all hazards in play. Majority of model consensus has both the main
cold front moving quickly south through the Panhandles and the
dryline should move quickly east into western Oklahoma by around
sunset on Friday. This bring overall rain chances for the far
eastern Panhandles only topping out around 20 percent. Meanwhile
for the remainder of the Panhandles, breezy and dry conditions
continue with critical fire weather conditions expected. Current
forecast for high temperatures on Friday will range from the mid
70s in the NW to lower 90s in the SE TX Panhandle. If cold front
moves faster, these max temperatures will be adjusted to lower
values.

By Friday night, in the wake of the cold front, latest hi-res
model and numerical guidance shows pronounced H850 CAA into the
region. A Freeze Watch is in effect for most of the western and
northern combined Panhandles where low temperatures will range
from the upper 20s in the NW Panhandles to lower 40s in the SE TX
Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Residual cooler temperatures continue throughout the coming
weekend. High temperatures will generally remain near to below
average, with the potential for Saturday night to feature
locations that could flirt with overnight lows at or just below
freezing. Temperatures will rebound next work week to above
average once again for mid April with dry conditions expected to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty from the southwest during the
daytime hours at all terminals. These winds will weaken during the
evening with gusts ceasing going into the overnight hours. This
opens up the threat for speed low level wind shear at all
terminals. The confidence of this occurring is highest at KGUY
and KDHT so these sites have LLWS in the TAFs, KAMA the confidence
is lower thus the LLWS has been excluded for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday
for the majority of the combined Panhandles. Min RH values both
days will drop by the afternoon hours to as low as 6-8 percent.
Southwest winds both days will be sustained at 20-30 mph with
higher gusts expected throughout the day. Watching wind shift with
cold front on Friday with winds shifting to northerly behind the
front, taking place sometime between mid Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening. Max RFTI values of 6-7 are expected both
Thursday and Friday. ERC percentile values ranging from the 80th
to just over 90th is also expected through Friday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>020-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98