FXUS64 KBRO 161125 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Key Messages: * Dry and breezy to windy southeasterly continue into Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly above average. * A cold front arrives Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing unsettled weather and potentially at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rain from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. * Daytime high temperatures drop 10-20 degrees behind the front, before warming back into the 80s by the middle of next week. * A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Semi-zonal and southwesterly flow aloft from troughing and shortwaves to the west and and influence from an expanding mid/upper high pressure over Mexico maintain dry and breezy conditions as a series of surface low pressure systems move across the Plains. Friday into Saturday, a cut-off mid-level low deepens and strengthens an associated surface low across the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes while surface high pressure expands across the Gulf. This will tighten a pressure gradient across Deep South Texas, enhancing afternoon and early evening southeasterly wind gusts from 20-30 mph on Thursday to 25-35 mph on Friday. At this time, probabilistic guidance indicates a low (15-30%) chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph across portions of the Lower and Middle RGV on on Friday afternoon, which is not high enough to consider a Wind Advisory, but will keep an eye on it. Breezy conditions persist into Saturday. As the surface low strengthens, a cold front is expected to stretch into Texas by Friday night and is currently anticipated to pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The combination of moisture pooling and increasing lift ahead of the front, followed by coastal troughing and mid-level disturbance(s) behind the front are likely to bring some unsettled weather to Deep South Texas, with a growing potential for more beneficial rain, though will be monitored closely for potential excessive rainfall hazards and impacts. Developing showers and thunderstorms increase chances of rain late Saturday evening to as much as a medium to likely (60-80%) chance by Sunday morning continuing through the afternoon hours. Chances of rain slow drop Sunday night to a low to medium (30-50%) chance next Monday and a low (15-20%) chance on Tuesday. Though there remains time for the specific details to be more confidently established, our latest storm total QPF amounts indicate most of the CWA receiving at least 0.75-1.00 inch of rainfall from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon. Slow moving showers and thunderstorms could bring up to 1.5 inches west of US-281, where the NBM advertises a 30-60% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 2.00 inches. Following, drier conditions resume, possibly by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain a few degrees above average, increasing a few degrees into Saturday, with highs reaching maximizing into the low/mid 90s and possibly upper 90s across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Upper RGV, while overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s. Highs could drop by 10-20 degrees behind the front, with highs potentially reaching only into the 70s on Sunday, which is 5-10 degrees below average, or cooler. Southeasterly winds return and temperatures warm back to the 80s by the middle of next week. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and will likely prevail through the remainder of this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Partly to mostly cloudy skies and moderate to breezy winds will produce MVFR to VFR conditions at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines are likely across the Laguna Madre during the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday as a pressure gradient develops and results in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) are possible on Friday as winds further enhance to fresh to strong. Winds ease and become easterly Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front arriving late Saturday night, bringing strong northeasterly winds, rough seas and unsettled weather through Sunday afternoon. SCAs are likely. Marine conditions improve throughout Sunday night, though SCEC and lingering chances of rain continue into the beginning of next week, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds resuming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$