FXUS62 KCAE 161038 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 638 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. Little change in the overall forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. - 2. A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. - 3. Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record high temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, will continue into the weekend. Little change in the thinking through the end of the week with a prolonged stretch of dry weather and well above- normal temperatures expected as a prominent upper level ridge and subtropical surface high remain in control through Saturday. Little day-to- day change is anticipated, with temperatures consistently rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. These values would be on the order of 10-15 degrees or more above climatological normal. Several daily records may be approached or tied, particularly on Friday and Saturday when highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across much of the area. While guidance has steadily trended a couple of degrees cooler as this forecast has unfolded, temps on Wednesday were several degrees above guidance, so depending on how this trend plays out, the April monthly record of 96 F at CAE and AGS could be in play on Friday and especially Saturday. Key Message 2: A cold front this weekend brings increased fire weather concerns and limited precipitation chances to the area. An upper trough over the central CONUS is expected to push eastward through the weekend, breaking down the upper ridge that has been parked over the area. This trough is also forecast to push a cold front toward and through the forecast area as well. Rain chances Sunday continue to look fairly limited given the lack of moisture convergence along the front and weak synoptic forcing aloft. A few showers are still possible, but any precip looks light with even the most aggressive solutions showing less 0.25"; the ECE and NAEFS members continue with only ~15% chance of over 0.1" for the area. The more notable impact looks to be increased fire danger once again, especially after the front passes. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range over the weekend and slightly lower on Monday. In addition to the near critical to critical RH values this weekend, breezy southwest winds on Saturday switch to west to northwest for Sunday as gusts reach 20-30 mph at times to end the weekend. Wind gusts diminish some for Monday as the front pushes further east of the area. Key Message 3: Refreshingly cooler but very dry start to next week. Little change in the forecast evolution behind the cold front, as confidence continues to increase that cooler than average temps move into the forecast area to begin the work week. The current blended guidance shows an 80% or greater chance of highs topping out below average on Monday before a gradual warmup into to the middle part of the week. With the stretch of relatively warm temps, these temps might feel on the cool side. Continuing dry conditions, even with some rainfall possible Sunday, means drought conditions will worsen through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected to persist. The region continues to be under the influence of the western Atlantic ridge with only a few passing higher clouds. Light winds through sunrise should increase by mid morning from the southwest with daytime mixing and winds around 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots expected through the afternoon. Winds will then diminish again with sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend with the chance for widespread restrictions remaining low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...23