FXUS63 KDVN 161122
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong spring storm system will impact our area Friday
  afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted our area
  in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather.

- Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front,
  bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area.
  Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring
  the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Today

A shortwave trough and attendant surface low will shift east of
the area today into the Lower Great Lakes. Mid-level height
rises and a weak area of surface high pressure will build in
through the day, setting up quiet conditions for a change with
mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain above
normal due to plenty of sun pushing highs into the lower 70s
north to mid 70s along I-80 and low 80s in the far southwest.
Today will be a much needed break from the repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms this week, especially for areas north
of I-80 that have been hit the hardest with bouts of flooding.

Friday

Unfortunately, only a short reprieve from the active weather is
expected as a deep upper trough and strong cold front move
through the Midwest on Friday into Friday night. This system
will set the stage for another round of severe storms across the
Upper Mississippi Valley region with southerly flow ahead of
the cold front advecting an anomalously warm and moist air mass
northward. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s NW to mid 80s far
south with dewpoints in the ~mid 60s on average, making it feel
more like an early summer day than mid April.

The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable into Friday
afternoon/evening with SBCAPE building to 2000-3000 J/kg (per
the HREF) which will coincide with notable 500mb height
falls/large scale ascent. With the ample instability and
sufficient deep layer shear (0-6 km between 35-45 kts),
conditions will be favorable for organized convection and severe
weather which may come in two rounds. The first round may be
the development of isolated to scattered supercells or multicell
clusters during the mid/late afternoon along a subtle pre-
frontal trough axis, out ahead of the approaching strong cold
front. Then the subsequent round looks to come in the form of a
robust squall line/QLCS during the evening to early nighttime,
bringing with it potential for significant straight-line winds
and mesovortices/QLCS tornadoes. Friday could bring some
significant severe weather to portions of the area with all
severe weather hazards possible; the primary threats being
damaging winds (possibly 70+ mph) and isolated tornadoes.
Another potential hazard, given the wet antecedent conditions,
is localized flash flooding for areas that get hit by repeated
rounds of storms with locations north of I-80 most susceptible.

SPC's latest severe outlook for Friday has an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) area-wide and WPC has a Slight Risk for flash
flooding (level 2 of 4). Continue to keep up with the forecast
for Friday as we will be able to provide more details on
timing, location, and specific hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the
aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in,
bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set
to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite
the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s, with counties roughly along and north of
I-80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north half or
so will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this
timeframe. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend,
with mostly clear skies. Breezy NW winds will make it feel
rather chilly, especially on Saturday.

Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes
active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but
precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along
with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings, and dense fog near CID, will
diminish through the mid morning. This will set up prevailing
VFR through the remainder of today and tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gunkel/Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech