FXUS64 KEPZ 161059 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 459 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Breezy again Today and windy Friday, and with very dry air will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - A cool front, with breezy and gusty north and northeast winds moves in Friday night through Saturday morning for a cooler weekend. - For Sunday, gusty east winds bring in gulf moisture from Texas. This give the areas along, and est of the Rio Grande Valley, slight chances of rain on Sunday. - Monday, and much of next week, we see dry westerly flow move back in. Next week looks generally fair, with near seasonal temperatures, and breezy afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 A deep upper trough moves into the northern Rockies/Great Basin on Thu, resulting in SW flow through the column. Lee sfc troughing is generated across the central and southern High Plains with breezy southwest winds forecast. Boundary layer winds of 15-25kts are modeled for Thu with a modest pressure gradient across the CWA. The sfc low is nudged SE on Fri ahead of a strong cold front coming down the Plains, giving us a more stout gradient. Fri looks to be the windiest day of the period, approaching advisory level for the high terrain and east slopes. The Wind Advisory for the Sacs remains in effect for early Fri as 700mb winds reach 40-50kts with some mtn wave activity along east slopes. Since winds have trended down a bit for Thu, blowing dust is less of a concern, but Fri could still be dusty as winds shift more westerly. Dry conditions persist, although some higher clouds may stream in from the subtropical jet. Behind the upper trough will be a sidedoor front that arrives early Sat, bringing some cooler temps and breezy N-NE winds initially. The sfc high settles to the east early next week, giving us moist, breezy SE flow off the Gulf for a short time. Early Sunday looks very breezy due to tight isobar packing, especially for west slopes where gusts to 40 mph can be seen, similar to what occurred a couple weeks ago. Low rain chances return as a result of the SE flow Sun, mainly E of the RGV. There remains disagreement in moisture content between the Euro and GFS ensembles with the GEFS more bullish on moisture and rain chances. Most of the moisture is flushed out on Mon as weak ridging translates overhead. A large upper low moves into the West Coast by midweek, returning us to dry, southwest flow. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through Fri, then falling to below normal this weekend behind the front. We'll become mild again late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds through the AM from W-NW, becoming breezy and occasionally gusty again this afternoon to 20-25kts from S-SW. No BLDU is expected. Skies start mostly SKC, with high clouds moving in from the west through the morning, becoming SCT-BKN250 during the day, then back to SKC-FEW250 this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 436 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. Much drier air has moved into the region on deep southwest and westerly flow, and this critically dry air will sit over the area through Saturday. As the next Pacific trough begins to move toward the Southwestern U.S. today, and slowly pass to our north tomorrow, fire weather conditions will be ramping up into Elevated, Near Critical, and even Critical. This will be due to the dry air in place, with the addition of breezy winds today, and windy and gusty winds on Friday. For today, our western areas will see the breezy conditions, with slightly higher wind speeds than our central and eastern areas. Tomorrow, it will be the eastern areas, and in particular the SACs, that see the strongest winds. Winds on Friday area expected to be stronger than today's winds, and thus, even with slight RH gains, the weather conditions will meet RFW criteria for all, or most, of our S Central and SW NM fire zones. Thus we have a fire Weather Watch in effect for Friday. Winds today will increase to the 15-20 mph range, with some higher gusts. Friday's winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30+ mph. The Sacramento mountains will see much stronger winds beginning tonight and peaking Friday morning, with sustained winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts 45 to 55 mph. Today's minRH will fall into the single-digits most areas, with lower teens in the mountains. Friday the minRH will be in the 10-20 percent range. Friday night, through Sunday morning, a stout cold front will push in in from the north, shifting winds from W to N, and keeping them at least breezy and gusty. The front will be dry. Saturday night, winds shift east and southeast and further increase, with a breezy to windy and gusty overnight along the international Border. These winds will bring in some gulf moisture, and allow for slight chances for rain showers Sunday along the southern lowlands and areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monday, we revert back to a deep westerly flow pattern, which will push the moisture back to our east, and draw in dry air once again. Most of next week looks fair and mild, with temperatures near seasonal averages, dry weather, and somewhat breezy afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 58 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 80 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 80 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 57 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 43 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 82 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 46 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 46 82 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 69 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 68 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 66 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 36 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 79 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 41 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 76 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 44 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird