FXUS62 KFFC 161031 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 631 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect across portions of north and central GA. Fire weather concerns will persist through the end of the week given the ongoing low relative humidities, dry vegetation, and warm temperatures. - Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday. Some daily record highs may be broken. - Rain chances will increase across north GA Sat night, but appreciable rainfall is very unlikely, so worsening drought conditions are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A mid and upper level ridge continues to extend from the central Gulf into the west Atlantic, with an elongated surface high positioned underneath. This pattern will maintain its grip over north and central Georgia through the end of the week, although it will shift slightly to the southeast today. The morning will begin with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. High temperatures this afternoon will range from 10-15 degrees above daily normals, rising into the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s also forecast in east- central Georgia. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes over the course of the day, with an associated frontal boundary moving through the Tennessee Valley. With strong diurnal mixing expected, dewpoints have been lowered by blending in 10th percentile NBM, MAV/MET, and latest HRRR solution. With relative humidity values below 30% across much of east Georgia and portions of west Georgia and very dry vegetation, another Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 8 PM this evening. With the ridge stretching more to the east, some isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25%) may spread into the far northern tier this afternoon and tonight. With deep layer bulk shear values between 35-45 kts ahead of the front, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Any stronger storm that develops could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Aside from a stronger storm, rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25 inch across the far northern tier and have little impact on ongoing drought conditions. The frontal boundary is forecast to weaken as it continues south, dissipating before reaching the Tennessee/Georgia border. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Friday, with high temperatures expected to be between 12-18 degrees above normals, rising into the upper 80s and low 90s. Some locations, including the four main climate sites (ATL, AHN, MCN, and CSG), could see the highs approach daily records. With little change to the airmass on rain chances less than 5% during the daytime Friday, hazardous fire weather conditions are expected in the afternoon once again. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Weekend Cold Front and Rain for Some: Ensemble guidance aligns on the passage of a stout longwave trough across the eastern CONUS late Saturday through late Sunday. An associated expansive low pressure system will drive moisture advection across the southern U.S. along the cold front as it pushes eastward. The result will be showers and potentially thunderstorms across at least parts of north and central Georgia Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Strong mid-/upper-level winds should not be hard to come by given the base of the trough swinging through aloft, but given such a dry airmass in place beforehand, instability/buoyancy will be lacking. Thus, severe weather is not expected. The big question many folks are probably asking is how much rainfall is expected? Unfortunately, rainfall is likely to remain around 0.25 inches or less. While any rainfall at all is much welcomed, no drought improvements will come from such measly totals. The cold front passage will be noticeable on Sunday, with high temperatures potentially some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were on Saturday. Monday morning lows could be as chilly as the upper 30s to lower 40s across parts of the area. Widespread lows in the 40s are currently forecast for early Tuesday morning. Still Very Dry Overall through Early Next Week: Even amid the weekend rain chances, fire weather conditions will continue to bear watching. Areas that do not see rainfall on Sunday may reach the relative humidity criterion for a Fire Danger Statement when coupled with still-dry vegetation. The post-front environment on Monday and Tuesday looks to bring a very dry airmass with relative humidity currently progged to be in the teens-to-20 percent range -- plenty dry enough for continued issuances of fire weather products. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the day, with only passing upper level clouds. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible across far north GA in the late afternoon and tonight ahead of a front, but are unlikely to make it as far south as ATL. FEW-SCT clouds as low as 060 are anticipated overnight. Winds will begin the morning from SW at 5 kts increasing to 5-9 kts after 15Z and through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less after 01Z, becoming light and variable at times during the overnight hours. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .CLIMATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Records for 04-15 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1936 50 1952 68 1922 28 1943 KATL 87 1972 45 1903 66 1991 31 1950 1936 KCSG 91 1972 53 1952 69 1972 35 1943 1945 1922 KMCN 91 1972 53 1952 69 1922 31 1907 1936 Records for 04-16 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 88 1930 50 1903 62 1982 30 1943 1925 1945 KATL 86 1896 49 1905 64 1945 32 1962 KCSG 92 1925 61 1961 69 1945 32 1950 1928 KMCN 91 1967 56 1905 67 1972 33 2014 2008 Records for 04-17 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1955 55 1949 63 2006 30 1949 1905 1982 1939 KATL 89 1896 44 1904 66 2024 31 1905 1896 KCSG 91 1955 58 1923 69 2006 32 1949 1925 1922 KMCN 92 1955 52 1904 69 2006 34 1949 Records for 04-18 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936 1927 KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997 1937 1896 KCSG 91 2002 60 2014 69 2006 37 1962 1930 1956 1927 KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001 1955 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 82 56 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 87 60 89 61 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 88 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 86 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 88 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 87 60 90 62 / 10 10 0 0 Peachtree City 87 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 92 62 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...King