FXUS65 KFGZ 161123 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 423 AM MST Thu Apr 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for another round of windy conditions today, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then a slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona is still on track for a fast moving and dry shortwave trough to brush the area. Current model forecasts have continued the trend of shifting the trough further north. For today, in advance of the trough axis, winds will become southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain gusty overnight, gradually weakening and shifting to a west to northwest direction by early Friday as the trough heads eastward. Friday will see west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph over much of the area. However, east of a Winslow to Four Corners line winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph will persist, weakening through Friday afternoon. For Friday night through Saturday...A dry northeast to east flow will develop. In wind protected locations above 6,500 feet strong radiational cooling will present the potential for low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Saturday morning. Otherwise, look for northeast to east winds at 5-15 mph across much of the area. The exception will be along and south of the Mogollon Rim from late Friday through early Sunday, for locations where northeast winds tend to funnel, gusts to 25 mph are forecast. From Sunday onward...Northeast winds will likely be short-lived as a longwave trough will start to approach Arizona from over the Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Consequently, look for gusty south to southwest winds to return on Sunday, lasting well into next week and gradually shifting to southwest. As the Pacific trough approaches and with a south to southwest flow developing, moisture will be on the increase. A pair of weak passing shortwave disturbances in the general flow will deliver just enough upward motion Sunday and Monday for a slight chance of a light shower or two over the mountains of northern Arizona. The onset of southerly flow will introduce a milder air mass with temperatures moderating to above seasonal averages both day and night. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/12Z through Friday 17/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds generally light and variable until 15Z, then increasing to SW at 15-25 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts, diminishing to 5-15 kts gusting to 25-30 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds NW to N at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Friday, shifting to N to NE Friday night, then becoming NE to E at 5-15 kts on Saturday. Local gusts to 25 kts along and south of the Mogollon Rim 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Expect dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Today will see south/southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. On Friday winds becoming north/northwest at 10- 15 mph, locally gusting to 30 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. Minimum RH 10-20% each day. Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry, outside of a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain on Sunday. Winds northeast/east at 5-15 mph on Saturday with local gusts of 25-30 mph from the Mogollon Rim southward. Winds shifting to southeast/south at 10-20 mph on Sunday and Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Saturday, increasing to 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff