FXUS63 KIND 160706 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 306 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday afternoon - Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s - Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for frost && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Overview. An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place across the Ohio Valley with a broad surface low currently over the upper Great Lakes and a trailing boundary with embedded waves extending south through the midwest. This whole system is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet with a mid level jet streak across Illinois this morning placing Indiana within an area of enhanced lift. Rain associated with these waves pushes through the area early this morning, giving way to a 36 hour break in the precipitation. While a brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on Saturday with additional showers and thunderstorms expected. This transition will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week, introducing potential frost concerns for the local area. Today and Friday... Latest satellite imagery clearly depicts a few waves along an approaching boundary to the west. Satellite and radar imagery show a complex of weak showers and a few storms near Lafayette with an embedded meso-low. A secondary wave is on the heals of the first one over Missouri with associated weak convection with it as well. Local ACARs soundings show an environment conducive for rainfall locally, especially for western Indiana... however weak lapse rates and little instability will limit the overall severe threat this morning. CAMs guidance shows these waves of precipitation pushing northeast into Illinois and western Indiana through the early morning hours. Lower confidence in rainfall chances along and east of the I-65 corridor as drier air and lack of instability have been resulting in rapid weakening of any complex moving into the area. Overall, expect clouds and showers to continue over portions of Central and Western Indiana through daybreak, becoming more scattered in nature through the late morning hours as everything weakens and gradually dissapates with its eastward progression. Short term guidance shows much drier air filtering in behind the boundary today with clouds breaking up during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall, the latter half of today may be fairly nice as incoming ridging and clearing skies allows for a drying trend and highs potentially reaching 80 degrees again. Friday looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the mid 80s are probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a humid airmass remains entrenched across the state. Saturday through Wednesday... Medium range models and ensembles have been consistent in showing a significant pattern shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough ejects out of the Rockies with a strong surface cold front crossing Indiana late Friday night into the first half of Saturday. While the dynamics associated with this next system would suggest a slight risk for severe weather over Indiana, latest trends have sped up the arrival of the front to the early morning hours Saturday. Given the timing and lower instability during that time of day, thunderstorms are still possible as the front pushes through, but confidence is lower regarding the severe weather potential. Higher confidence exists in a forecast calling for rain showers and largely sub-severe storms late Friday night into the first half of Saturday with a drying trend during the latter half of the day. This front is fairly robust with strong cold air advection on the backside, ushering in the aforementioned pattern change to a much cooler regime. A 1030mb surface high slides south from Central Canada behind the front with much cooler air advecting southward into the Ohio Valley.. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday and Monday morning are currently projected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s with a few locations possibly dropping lower. The frost threat looks minimal for Sunday morning as elevated winds should prevent temperatures from dropping into frost territory. The main concern for frost exists Monday morning as the center of the incoming high pressure settles in over the lower Great Lakes and sets the stage for better radiational cooling. Highest threat for frost appears to be along and north of I-70 corridor outside of urban areas. If trends continue, frost products may be needed late Sunday night into Monday morning. Going into next week, longer range guidance suggests a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to a much warmer southwesterly flow pattern. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. - Low chances for TSRA 06-09z, more likely around KHUF - MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs during any TSRA - Wind shift to 250-280 deg today with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions remain across the TAF sites this evening even as an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms cross the IN/IL border. Upstream observations indicate there is enough near surface dry air to keep cloud bases above 5000ft agl during the rainfall. Still a small chance at MVFR cigs under a heavier shower or storm early this morning, however not mentioning it in the TAFs as the probability is very low and there is low confidence in exactly when it may occur. Best chance for reduced vsby from rain will be at KHUF and KLAF with a lesser threat at KIND and KBMG as this entire complex of showers and storms will rapidly weaken with eastward progression. Keeping TSRA chances confined to KHUF as instability is rapidly waning as well, keeping the threat for thunder along the IL/IN border. Will update the TAFs as needed if the TSRA threat looks to persist further east this morning. Fairly light winds early this morning as a rather stable boundary layer is preventing stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. Upstream obs in Illinois indicate that KLAF may see a few higher gusts to 20 kts as this area of rain moves through 06z-11z. Gusty winds possible under any heavier shower at all sites early this morning but these should be isolated. Winds shift from SSW to W during the day today with gusts of 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours as winds mix down to the surface. Expect winds to significantly diminish toward and after sunset tonight become light and variable out of the WNW to N. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...CM DISCUSSION...CM