FXUS64 KJAN 161203 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 703 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog are possible this morning, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi. - There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor today. - Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Through This Morning: Perhaps a bit disrupted by high clouds overhead, fog is a little slower to develop to our south this morning. Still expecting patchy to areas of fog by around sunrise especially in southeastern parts of the forecast area. Showers associated with a shortwave passing to our north today area already impacting far northern parts of the area and will be possible through the morning. Today through Wednesday: A dominant surface high and upper-level ridge over the Southeast US are keeping the approaching system's cold front to the northwest of our area today. Best rain chances today will be closer to the front, but do still have those slight chances for showers and storms continuing around the US Highway 82 corridor into today. A re-strengthening of the ridge will bring dry conditions back to the forecast area, and high temperatures tomorrow will even flirt with 90 degrees for most locations in our forecast area. An amplifying upper-level pattern will bring a trough and cooler surface air into the High Plains by tomorrow night into Saturday. The resulting low pressure system will still be far to our north around the Great Lakes, but a stronger cold front should push through our area Saturday night into Sunday. Expect increased moisture ahead of the frontal passage, with the best chances (80%) of the next 7 days for showers and thunderstorms to impact the area. The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures in the 40s are achievable Sunday night into Monday. AS the high translates farther eastward by midweek, some moisture return will allow for POPs to return to portions of the area. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low stratus and fog producing a mix of IFR to MVFR conditions south of Interstate 20 to start the TAF period. Conditions should improve to prevailing VFR at all sites by around 15Z today. Another round of low ceilings and visibility is expected at some sites by around 09Z Friday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 64 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 85 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 87 64 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 87 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 85 63 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 86 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 0 Greenwood 86 66 89 66 / 20 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ056>058- 063>066-072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF