NZUS01 KLMK 160647
WRKSRT

Early morning observations reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the region with temperatures in the mid-upper 60s on the
ridges and lower-mid 50s in the more protected valleys.  Area radars
continued to show dry conditions across the region for the time
being.  For the remainder of overnight period, generally quiet
weather is expected for the next few hours.  Ongoing line of
convection out near St. Louis will continue to move slowly eastward
across southern IL this morning.  This activity may make it into our
far northwest counties by sunrise.  Expect overnight temperatures to
remain in the mid-upper 60s in most areas, with the more protected
valleys remaining in the mid 50s.

For today, quite a bit of mid-high level cloud cover will move
across the region during the morning hours.  Decaying line of
showers will attempt to push through the region.  However, latest
round of convective allowing guidance continues to trend drier in
recent runs.  Overall, it appears that some scattered rain showers
will be possible in the I-65 corridor and point west this morning.
Some thinning of the cloud cover may occur by mid-late afternoon and
that could result in some convective redevelopment across the
eastern sections of the forecast area (mainly east of the US 27/127
corridor).  A look at proximity model soundings show steep low-level
lapse rates across the region with about 25-30kts of bulk shear.
Soundings continue to show a bit of a warm nose above 700mb which
may keep convection from getting sufficiently deep.  Should deep
convection develop, brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds
would be the main threats. The expected cloud cover will likely keep
temperatures a bit cooler today with highs of 75-80 expected across
the region.

For this evening and overnight, will have to watch areas to our
southwest where some of the data suggests that a trailing convective
outflow boundary combined with differential heating may lead to
another batch of strong/severe convection firing across southern MO
and into northern AR.  This activity may scrape across southwest KY
and could impact our southern zones (prob around 30%).  Otherwise,
some partial clearing is expected with lows falling back into the
upper 50s to around 60.

For Friday and Friday night, shortwave trough axis looks to move
across the Mid-Atlantic while upper ridging rebuilds across the deep
south into the Ohio Valleys.  A broad southwest flow is expected
across the region with mostly sunny skies. This pattern should allow
temperatures to top out in the 83-88 degree range with breezy winds
out of the southwest.  A rather extensive area of strong/severe
convection is expected from the southern Plains northeast through
the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Friday afternoon/evening.
This activity will likely continue into the overnight hours with
clouds increasing across our region and a chance of showers in areas
west of I-65 prior to dawn Saturday.  Overnight lows Friday night
will be in the mid-upper 60s.