FGUS73 KLSX 131401 CCA ESFLSX ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127- 137-151-163-173-183-189-221-DDHHMM- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...Correction NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO 755 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 This is the initial statistical output for the 2026 Spring Flood Outlook for the St. Louis hydrologic service area (HSA). Going forward, the Spring Flood Outlook will be issued via a Decision Support Services (DSS) packet, a graphical presentation of the flood likelihood at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast points of the St. Louis HSA. In addition, you can access information about this outlook from another graphical product available from our website at https://www.weather.gov/lsx/springfloodoutlook. With the transition to these online graphical tools, this will be the final text product for our annual spring flood outlook. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 35 59 10 13 <5 <5 LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 : 28 49 <5 9 <5 <5 Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 : 28 54 15 25 <5 9 Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 : 28 52 14 23 <5 9 Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 37 57 9 14 6 9 Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 : 41 60 20 36 7 10 Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 51 70 17 33 <5 6 Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 52 70 14 26 8 13 Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 46 62 21 39 6 9 Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 : 30 59 9 17 <5 5 Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : 49 66 7 15 <5 <5 St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 26 51 14 28 <5 5 Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 : 37 59 15 30 <5 7 Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : 52 81 20 34 9 16 :North Fabius River Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 : 45 53 10 12 7 7 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 : 45 49 11 13 7 7 :South Fabius River Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 : 34 55 13 14 <5 <5 :North River Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 19 28 6 9 <5 <5 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 40 48 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt River New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cuivre River Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 44 46 13 18 5 5 Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 34 55 18 23 <5 12 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 35 35 20 21 5 5 :Meramec River Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 33 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 46 67 12 12 <5 <5 :Bourbeuse River Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 38 51 8 8 <5 <5 :Meramec River Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 28 42 6 8 <5 <5 :Big River Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 34 54 17 21 <5 <5 :Meramec River Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 28 41 12 14 6 7 Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 : 36 47 30 31 13 16 Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 : 38 50 13 15 11 12 Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 59 79 18 21 6 12 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 71 85 28 39 13 18 Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 : 35 77 <5 <5 <5 <5 New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 : 37 51 30 37 25 26 :La Moine River Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 19 37 18 28 6 8 :Moreau River Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 43 86 20 44 9 18 :Hinkson Creek Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 45 49 20 24 8 9 :Maries River Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 21 40 15 18 <5 <5 :Gasconade River Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 20 36 11 21 6 9 :Missouri River Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 27 61 14 45 5 15 :Osage River St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 25 62 11 23 <5 16 :Missouri River Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 49 76 5 11 <5 <5 Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 36 79 16 38 5 14 Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 29 73 6 15 <5 13 St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 28 74 11 16 <5 11 :Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 : 35 76 10 19 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 8.4 9.1 11.4 13.4 16.7 20.0 21.8 LaGrange 9.3 10.0 12.3 14.3 17.6 20.9 22.7 Quincy 12.8 12.9 14.6 16.3 19.9 23.6 25.8 Lock & Dam 21 9.1 10.0 12.8 15.2 18.7 22.4 24.8 Hannibal 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.5 18.5 21.6 24.5 Saverton 9.1 10.4 12.5 14.7 18.5 22.2 24.9 Louisiana 12.1 12.2 12.9 15.1 18.6 21.7 24.0 Clarksville 19.6 20.8 22.4 25.4 29.1 32.4 34.5 Winfield 19.5 20.8 22.5 25.5 29.2 32.5 34.3 Grafton 15.5 15.6 16.0 17.4 20.5 23.7 28.1 Alton 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 22.6 Mel Price LD 10.0 10.8 15.3 20.8 23.1 28.2 30.4 St. Louis 10.2 12.9 18.7 26.3 30.5 36.1 38.1 Herculaneum 8.3 11.1 16.8 24.1 28.3 33.7 35.7 Chester 13.4 14.1 20.0 27.1 32.9 39.6 42.1 :North Fabius River Ewing 4.4 5.8 8.0 10.6 13.2 17.0 21.0 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 4.6 6.1 7.8 11.2 13.7 17.3 21.8 :South Fabius River Taylor 4.6 5.3 6.3 9.0 10.8 14.6 18.4 :North River Palmyra 4.8 5.6 7.0 9.2 11.9 14.6 16.8 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 9.1 9.5 13.0 16.2 18.6 20.2 21.3 :Salt River New London 2.6 3.0 5.7 9.2 10.2 12.5 13.3 :Cuivre River Troy 9.2 10.9 14.3 19.2 23.9 25.9 29.1 Old Monroe 15.3 15.9 18.7 21.7 25.5 29.0 29.7 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 7.2 8.7 11.3 15.7 19.2 22.1 23.2 :Meramec River Steelville 2.2 2.4 5.0 8.9 13.1 16.6 19.6 Sullivan 3.9 4.2 7.0 10.8 14.4 20.9 24.5 :Bourbeuse River Union 5.1 7.1 11.1 13.4 16.1 20.9 24.8 :Meramec River Pacific 0.9 3.4 7.3 11.9 15.8 21.5 25.5 :Big River Byrnesville 5.9 6.7 8.8 12.9 18.1 22.5 25.0 :Meramec River Eureka 4.9 7.7 10.8 14.4 19.5 27.1 34.3 Valley Park 6.2 8.8 10.5 13.2 22.7 33.0 38.3 Fenton 11.7 14.0 15.8 17.7 25.6 32.8 37.7 Arnold 11.7 14.0 17.8 25.6 31.3 36.2 39.7 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 10.2 11.7 15.5 21.5 24.2 26.6 28.4 Carlyle 10.4 11.4 13.2 15.7 18.9 21.2 21.7 New Athens 70.0 70.4 71.8 75.1 84.9 89.3 90.0 :La Moine River Ripley 8.3 8.7 12.0 16.1 20.9 25.7 27.9 :Missouri River Jefferson City 9.6 11.9 15.0 18.7 23.6 26.0 31.3 :Osage River St. Thomas 4.3 6.3 10.3 11.8 13.2 16.7 23.4 Mari-Osa Campgrou 5.0 10.2 12.0 15.1 19.0 23.0 24.2 :Missouri River Chamois 5.2 10.1 12.1 16.6 21.3 24.2 28.4 Hermann 7.1 12.6 14.9 18.6 23.9 30.9 33.2 Washington 5.8 10.3 12.4 16.2 20.9 26.9 29.8 St. Charles 14.1 17.4 19.2 22.3 25.9 31.6 34.5 :Black River Annapolis 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 9.6 14.7 19.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/16/2026 - 05/17/2026 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Canton 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.7 40.5 36.7 35.0 Quincy 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.8 40.6 36.8 35.2 Lock & Dam 21 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.8 40.6 36.8 35.2 Hannibal 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.0 40.6 37.1 35.9 Saverton 45.5 45.4 45.3 45.1 40.7 37.2 35.9 Louisiana 52.4 52.2 48.4 46.5 41.4 37.6 36.9 Clarksville 52.4 52.2 48.5 46.5 41.4 37.7 37.0 Winfield 52.4 52.3 48.5 46.7 41.5 37.8 37.0 St. Louis 90.2 89.4 88.2 84.7 78.1 73.2 71.2 Chester 94.7 94.4 91.7 87.8 80.1 75.7 74.7 :North Fabius River Ewing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Middle Fabius River Ewing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :South Fabius River Taylor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :North River Palmyra 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Salt River New London 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 :Cuivre River Troy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Old Monroe 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Dardenne Creek St. Peters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Meramec River Steelville 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sullivan 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 :Bourbeuse River Union 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Meramec River Pacific 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 :Big River Byrnesville 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 :Meramec River Eureka 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 :Kaskaskia River Vandalia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Carlyle 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :La Moine River Ripley 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Osage River St. Thomas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.1 :Missouri River St. Charles 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water information. To view more data in graphical format online, go to https://www.weather.gov/lsx/springfloodoutlook . $$ Fuchs