FXUS64 KLUB 161051
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

 - Warm and breezy with critical fire danger on both Thursday and
   Friday.

 - A few storms are possible Friday night off the Caprock.

 - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the
   region this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dry weather will continue through the overnight period and during
the day on Thursday as surface flow maintains a notable westerly
component, keeping low level moisture well to our east. Flow aloft
will gradually begin backing on Thursday ahead of the next upper
level system transiting over the intermountain west, but with broad
surface troughing set to persist over SE CO and the TX Panhandle
which will delay the onset of moisture return across our region.
Southwest winds are expected to be a bit stronger on Thursday
afternoon compared to the past couple of days, which combined with
highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and RH values below 10 percent will
result in critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock on
Thursday afternoon. Surface flow will finally back towards a more
southerly direction Thursday night which will quickly pull some
shallow moisture northward into our region by early Friday. As this
moisture return occurs, a bit of lift associated with a modest low
level jet could be sufficient to generate a few showers or storms
overnight Thursday through early Friday. However, this is appearing
increasingly unlikely given the rather weak forcing and plentiful
convective inhibition in place over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Friday will begin on the humid side, but surface moisture will
quickly mix out as stronger southwesterly low level flow develops in
response to deepening troughing ahead of a strong cold front
descending southward through KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles. Winds
will become solidly breezy by Friday afternoon which will bring
another day of critical fire weather conditions to most of the
region. The above-mentioned cold front is then expected to pass
southward through the region near or just after sunset, bringing a
shift to strong north winds along with a sharp cooldown Friday
night. For the majority of the forecast area, this will be a dry
frontal passage. However, a few storms may still develop off the
Caprock Friday night as the front intersects the retreating dryline
in addition to increasing upper level forcing for ascent. Plentiful
instability and 50+ kt bulk shear magnitudes could result in some of
these storms becoming severe late Friday night in this area,
especially over the eastern Rolling Plains.

Dry and relatively cool weather is expected area-wide throughout the
upcoming weekend as a ~1025mb surface ridge builds over the region,
with a light freeze not out of the question over the SW TX Panhandle
and northern South Plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. By
early next week, model consensus favors modest upper level ridging
building over our area ahead of a deep low off the CA/OR coast. A
few weak disturbances beneath the ridge combined with returning low
level moisture may bring a few showers or storms to the region on
Monday, but the bulk of this activity looks likely to remain to our
south and east. Warmer temperatures then return Tuesday and beyond
with a dry forecast currently favored through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR. Winds will transition to the southwest, with winds becoming
breezy this afternoon and into tonight at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Southwest winds will strengthen by late Thursday morning and
become quite breezy through the rest of the day. Sustained speeds
of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected across most
of the Caprock Thursday afternoon which combined with minimum RH
values in the single digits will result in critical fire weather
conditions over most of the region. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect from 12 PM to 8 PM Thursday for most areas on the Caprock.
Slightly weaker winds off the Caprock will keep fire danger in the
elevated category east of the escarpment, with a Fire Danger
Statement in effect there from 12 PM to 8 PM as well. Similar
conditions are expected Friday, although winds will likely be a
bit stronger compared to Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in
effect for most of the region on Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09