FXUS64 KMAF 161102 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 602 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 555 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of west Texas through Friday. - Increased shower/storm chances (20-40%) Friday night through Saturday morning across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos. Severe storms are not expected at this time. - Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend behind the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, subtle upper-level ridging spans over portions of the Desert Southwest. The subtle ridging takes shape over the region by this morning, promoting more warm downsloping winds. Highs are expected to reach the 80s to low 90s for most, while areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley look to have readings in the mid 90s to low 100s today. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. As a result, near- critical fire weather conditions reside over portions of southeast New Mexico this afternoon. CAMs have the dryline in a similar position compared with Wednesday afternoon, allowing more low (10-15%) isolated storm chances across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon and early evening. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Tonight, another upper-level trough approaches from the west which will supply stronger westerly/southwesterly winds over the region. These winds are forecast to increase by the late morning hours especially over southeast New Mexico. Brief high winds may occur across the Guadalupe Mountains, however, confidence is very low at the moment to warrant issuing any wind products. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, northwest Permian Basin, and far west Texas. See the fire weather discussion for more details on the fire weather threat! The dryline will be situated over similar locations compared to Thursday, bringing more low (10-15%) storm chances late Friday afternoon. These chances look to increase more heading into Friday evening and night, more on that in the long-term discussion! Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The upper-level trough that is expected to bring stronger winds to the area on Friday moves off to the east by Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front sweeps through the area early Saturday morning. This yields cooler afternoon temperatures (upper 60s to low 70s for most) Saturday and low (10-40%) chances of rain. Rain chances should diminish by late morning/early afternoon once the front makes its way out of our area. Temperatures are forecast to fall even further on Sunday thanks to increased cloud cover/any potential rainfall, and easterly upslope flow. An upper-level disturbance moves over the southern half of the region Sunday, bringing low (10-40%) chances of rain to locations mainly south of I-10. At this time, confidence in rainfall amounts remain low and we will continue to monitor trends over the next few days. Long-range ensemble guidance shows the return of upper-level ridging early next week, allowing for temperatures to begin warming back up. By the middle part of next week, the ridge builds and afternoon highs climb into the mid 80 to low 90s. Greening && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. BR will likely continue at MAF through the morning hours where VIS may briefly reach MVFR category. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase by the late morning to early afternoon hours across most terminals. Occasional gusts up to 25 kts may occur especially at MAF, CNM, HOB, and FST sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The forecast remains relatively unchanged. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico (including Chaves County and the Sacramento Foothills) and 4-6 over portions of northern Culberson and Gaines Counties. This may result in critical to potentially localized extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. To account for this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the same locations from late Friday morning through early Friday evening. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 65 91 51 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 88 55 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 88 66 93 60 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 90 63 92 54 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 77 57 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 56 86 44 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 82 50 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 65 90 52 / 10 10 10 20 Odessa 88 64 90 52 / 10 10 10 20 Wink 88 60 90 51 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Martin. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11